All-Time High Stocks… Bitcoin About To Explode?

[0:00] From a technical perspective and an
[0:01] Elliot wave perspective, I believe we
[0:03] have just finished a correction and I've
[0:06] been waiting patiently to kind of build
[0:08] off the lows we made in in in uh at
[0:11] 60th,000. The ecosystem of the direct
[0:14] relationship between Bitcoin and the AI
[0:17] world is starting to act well. When you
[0:19] run out of compute, that is important
[0:21] for Bitcoin. That fits in with the
[0:23] scarcity argument. So, do I think we're
[0:25] just going to jump out of here? What's
[0:27] going on, guys? In this week's
[0:28] conversation with Jordy, we talk about
[0:30] the commodity bull market, why stocks
[0:32] are at all-time highs, how he's thinking
[0:33] about inflation, deflation, and various
[0:36] other metrics in the economy. We then
[0:37] talk about the psychology of the
[0:39] individual American and how much that
[0:40] matters for asset prices. Talk about
[0:42] Bitcoin starting to surge back and why
[0:44] he's so bullish there. And then we talk
[0:45] about scarcity. Where is scarcity in the
[0:47] market? What is Jordy actually going and
[0:49] buying himself? And how should you think
[0:51] about putting scarcity into your
[0:53] portfolio versus maybe some of the major
[0:55] indexes? This conversation's got a ton
[0:57] of great insights. And at the end, Jordy
[0:59] shares a couple of things that he's
[1:00] built that are pretty cool, and I think
[1:01] that you'll enjoy it. And Jordy gives
[1:03] out his email address, so you may want
[1:04] to pay attention at the end. That's it.
[1:07] Here's my conversation with Jordy
[1:08] Visser. All right, Jordy, you told me
[1:10] that you didn't think stocks were going
[1:11] to get to all-time highs this year.
[1:12] We're sitting at all-time highs right
[1:14] now. We also saw an 11-day advance
[1:16] before the new all-time high, and now
[1:18] stocks seem to be exploding as we open
[1:20] up the straight and kind of gang
[1:21] busters. What do you got to say for
[1:22] yourself there, big dog?
[1:25] You asked my opinion, it was wrong.
[1:28] Uh I didn't think there was a bare
[1:29] market. I didn't think there'd be a
[1:30] recession, but I also didn't think that
[1:32] the market could look through uh the
[1:35] inflation, the credit, and all that. But
[1:38] as this market has proven time and time
[1:40] again over the course of the last I
[1:42] don't know what's it been since 2019
[1:43] that no matter what takes it down a
[1:45] pandemic tariffs Silicon Valley Bank now
[1:49] shutting down the most important um
[1:51] crossing for oil uh it just doesn't seem
[1:54] to matter. It hasn't been um it hasn't
[1:58] been a broad thing. It has still been
[2:00] led by the things that I am bullish on
[2:02] and I've said repeatedly we are in a
[2:04] secular bull market in hardware in
[2:07] commodities and in semiconductors
[2:09] and this did and this was led by them. I
[2:13] also did a um I did a video I don't
[2:16] think I sent it to you sorry if I
[2:18] didn't. Um, I did a video on Tuesday
[2:21] about Oracle
[2:23] >> and there's an important message in that
[2:25] which I'll let you kind of double click
[2:26] on a little bit for people, but I did
[2:29] that on Tuesday which to me opened up a
[2:32] little bit more of the upside because
[2:34] there's a change that's happening with
[2:36] inside AI that I think has become
[2:39] critical and all of the news this week
[2:41] under the surface since people are so
[2:43] focused on oil has been about a an
[2:46] enormous shortage that is starting to
[2:48] become more and more evident with inside
[2:49] the AI world.
[2:50] >> So, I want to talk about a couple of
[2:52] things here. The first is um I have now
[2:55] said for years that we have outlawed
[2:58] prolonged bare markets. We have outlawed
[3:00] multi-year recessions. I don't think in
[3:02] the rest of my life, and I know it's a
[3:04] bullet, but I don't think in the rest of
[3:05] my lifetime we will see either one of
[3:07] those things. And mainly, it's because
[3:09] two components. One is the Federal
[3:10] Reserve has perfected the QE playbook.
[3:12] The second we have cracks in the system,
[3:14] they rush in and you know, they start
[3:16] printing money, drop interest rates, all
[3:17] that stuff. The second though is I
[3:19] actually think in a hyperconnected
[3:21] digital world, investors have amnesia.
[3:25] And you know, I was joking this morning
[3:26] like investors are going to forget where
[3:27] Iran is on a map by the end of the year.
[3:29] >> Like they're just not even going to
[3:31] Maduro happened what what was that 12
[3:34] weeks ago. People don't even remember
[3:36] that he's sitting in MDC, you know, jail
[3:39] here in uh in New York City. And so I do
[3:42] think there's this element of you get
[3:43] the amnesia from investors and just the
[3:45] constant what's the next narrative,
[3:46] what's the next story? Uh but then you
[3:48] also compare that with the QE from the
[3:50] central bank and to your point doesn't
[3:51] mean that the stock market can't go down
[3:53] 10 or 15% you know in a in a given time
[3:55] period
[3:56] >> but it just doesn't last very long and
[3:58] you get these kind of V-shaped type
[3:59] recoveries.
[4:00] >> Yeah. Just remember um earlier in the
[4:03] year before Iran so in the first we're
[4:05] we're now almost so Iran
[4:09] started in in like the first day of
[4:11] March. So we're about six weeks into
[4:14] that. the market was having trouble
[4:15] before that and that was due to
[4:18] >> what I'll talk about this the supersonic
[4:20] tsunami
[4:22] >> that's getting worse. So remember if you
[4:25] strip out semiconductors and you strip
[4:27] out energy
[4:29] which is a it's an inflationary
[4:31] reflationary situation anything related
[4:34] to the consumer
[4:36] has had trouble. Um, this has been about
[4:39] commodities. This has been about PMIs.
[4:41] And I've been on this for a while and
[4:42] I've talked about these are where your
[4:44] investments need to be. So, this is the
[4:46] problem of talking about the market. The
[4:49] market has lots of names. It has lots of
[4:51] components. It has not been a good year
[4:52] for financial stocks. It has not been a
[4:54] good year for software stocks. It has
[4:55] not been a good year for the
[4:56] hyperscalers. Those facts are still in
[4:58] place. And those are the companies that
[5:00] have suffered the most from the power
[5:03] and the disruption of artificial
[5:04] intelligence. So my issue comes back to
[5:06] the same thing. People also at the same
[5:08] time get caught in new alltime highs.
[5:10] That means everything's good. You can't
[5:13] get rid of the problems of the
[5:14] deflationary pressure. So let's put
[5:16] those three components in in in in
[5:19] context.
[5:20] AI is getting p more powerful. Myth
[5:24] whether it's mythos or mythos. I've
[5:25] heard like 20 different people say it
[5:27] different ways.
[5:28] >> The scary one.
[5:28] >> Yeah. It seems like the people with the
[5:31] best educations say mythos. And I I'm
[5:33] assuming
[5:34] >> it's like finance versus finance.
[5:36] >> Yeah, exactly. I So I've kind of said
[5:38] since I since my father was a
[5:40] construction worker, I'm going to stick
[5:41] with mythos for me. Um
[5:44] you've got a problem where AI is
[5:46] accelerating even faster. These problems
[5:48] run into hacking risk. They run into
[5:50] jobs risk. They run into all of the
[5:52] things that were already a problem
[5:54] before we started this whole thing with
[5:55] Iran. So I think another thing is
[5:57] happens is people get hyperfocused on
[5:59] the event and yes it goes away but
[6:02] there's always a new event that comes
[6:04] out of it. The new event to me that is
[6:06] absolutely going to be here as far as
[6:08] I'm concerned is that we've reached the
[6:10] physical limits of AI. The commodity and
[6:13] semiconductor shortage is become
[6:16] real. And this only started honestly
[6:21] October, November, December. The
[6:24] shortages really started around the end
[6:26] of the year with memory. So DRAM prices
[6:28] had gone up, but we also had silver
[6:30] going up. Now you've got oil. Even with
[6:33] it falling on the straight opening, it's
[6:35] still higher than it was. Fertilizer,
[6:38] plastic. We don't know how long that's
[6:40] going to take to get those shortages
[6:41] back in. So when you get caught, hey,
[6:43] the straight's open. That's all well and
[6:44] good. We did a tremendous amount of
[6:46] disruption to inventories to a whole
[6:49] bunch of things which just mean our line
[6:50] of safety for inflation is gone. So
[6:53] we're going to have more volatile
[6:55] situations when it comes to that. the
[6:57] deficit and the debt is worse because of
[7:00] this whole situation. And with inflation
[7:02] at high levels, higher than they were
[7:04] and higher than what was expected, which
[7:06] everyone has the same forecast on that,
[7:09] you're left with negative real rates. As
[7:10] I said, once we get into it, what's the
[7:12] Fed going to do? We're going to have a
[7:13] new Fed chair. There will be a new story
[7:14] that comes out. Earnings are good. As I
[7:17] said, I believe earnings would be good
[7:18] this year. I believe the economy will be
[7:20] good this year. I'm not sure the
[7:22] multiple compression story, which has
[7:23] been the big thing, is gone yet. And I
[7:25] would continue to focus your attention
[7:27] on places where there's scarcity and I
[7:29] would avoid places of abundance because
[7:31] god forbid we start seeing the
[7:33] disruption to software names because as
[7:35] of now we've had no bad news in
[7:37] software. This was all about hype over
[7:39] the future. What if a company like
[7:42] salesforce.com actually highlights in
[7:44] their earnings coming up that they are
[7:45] seeing a loss of seats?
[7:48] This will start another wave of this.
[7:50] >> Watch out below. and we haven't gotten
[7:51] rid of the connection of how big
[7:53] software was in terms of the debt and
[7:55] everything associated with it. So, I
[7:56] just want to make sure people realize
[7:57] this is a trading market. Stick with the
[8:00] things that are in a secular bull
[8:01] market. Don't get caught in the S&P 500
[8:04] in this thing about, you know, stocks,
[8:06] bull market, bare market. There are lots
[8:08] of names that are up 100% this year.
[8:09] There's lots of names that are down 20%
[8:11] this year. That means there's an
[8:12] opportunity for picking your names. I
[8:13] would stick with the scarcity names.
[8:15] >> Okay. I want to talk about first, let's
[8:16] just talk about the V-shaped recovery in
[8:18] the market. Um, we've got this thing uh,
[8:20] Pro Cap Insights. We've got this AI
[8:22] system goes finds uh, uh, the agents go
[8:25] and find insights. And one of the things
[8:26] that it found this week that I thought
[8:27] was very interesting is since Q4 of
[8:30] 2018, there has been at least five
[8:32] V-shaped recoveries. And the V-shaped
[8:34] recovery is basically defined by a
[8:36] material draw down in the stock market.
[8:37] Let's call it 10% or so. And then in a
[8:39] very short period of time, it comes
[8:41] back, right? In a matter of months. um
[8:43] when that has happened all five times in
[8:46] the last 10 years we have seen the stock
[8:48] market rally significantly from there
[8:50] since Q4 of 2018 every single time the
[8:53] lowest return that you got over the next
[8:55] 12 months was 20% the highest I think
[8:57] was somewhere like 70 plus%. When you
[9:00] see that, it reinforces, you and I have
[9:02] talked about in the past, the data point
[9:03] of buying the all-time high stock price
[9:06] in the S&P is usually the best day to
[9:08] buy compared to any other day because
[9:10] momentum be gets more momentum and over
[9:12] a 6 month, threeyear, you know, 5year
[9:14] period, you get this thing. What you're
[9:16] talking about though is actually if you
[9:19] take the S&P uh as an example, there are
[9:21] some names that are going to outperform,
[9:23] there are some names that are going to
[9:25] suffer. And so I know that you
[9:27] personally are looking at okay what are
[9:29] the sectors where are the scarcity I'm
[9:30] going to go and invest there but let's
[9:32] say that there are people who say look I
[9:33] you know I'm a teacher I'm a fireman I'm
[9:35] a accountant I uh have a regular job I
[9:38] don't do this for a living
[9:40] >> I just have been trained to buy the S&P
[9:42] 500
[9:43] >> how do you think that performs over the
[9:44] next 12 to 24 months do you think it's
[9:46] something where it'll have like a
[9:47] negative to flat return or do you think
[9:49] that it's just going to underperform
[9:51] these scarcity verticals
[9:53] >> I definitely think it's going to
[9:54] underperform the scarcity verticals I so
[9:56] we can um the beauty of of using AI is
[10:01] to go back in history. But if I said did
[10:04] my specialty which is when an analyst
[10:06] would come in I have a good brain for
[10:08] like I used to memorize baseball cards
[10:10] when I was a kid. It was a little parlor
[10:11] trick. Uh I had a lot of like little
[10:13] nuances of ridiculous things that I
[10:16] could do. Play Space Invaders
[10:17] blindfolded stuff like that. Like I
[10:18] could get the patterns. Um you're not
[10:21] talking about a lot of data points in
[10:22] your back test. So maybe there's four.
[10:24] Mhm.
[10:25] >> Um the one thing that I I can guarantee
[10:27] you was not consistent with what is
[10:29] about to happen. Uh inflation is going
[10:31] higher, meaning it's moving higher. We
[10:34] haven't been above 4%. At any point in
[10:37] history where it's been a good time to
[10:38] be involved in stocks, and I've
[10:39] highlighted those numbers. When we get
[10:41] the next CPI print, we will be above 4%
[10:44] most likely.
[10:47] Unless people think that fertilizer is
[10:50] not going to have impact on food prices,
[10:52] that diesel prices that are sitting up
[10:54] where they are is not going to feed
[10:55] through the economy, headline inflation
[10:58] is going to be high. The silliness of
[11:01] people arguing whether inflation is high
[11:03] or not. When surveys for Americans say
[11:07] that their finances are horrible is
[11:09] ridiculous to me. And that gets into the
[11:11] thing again of numbers. I deal in the
[11:14] reality of the way people think.
[11:15] >> All right, but hold on. the survey
[11:18] complete lie in my opinion. We got to
[11:20] debate this.
[11:20] >> Okay,
[11:21] >> so Tom Lee is the one who went and did
[11:24] the research on this. Uh I actually did
[11:26] not believe him. I told him this. I
[11:27] said, I I don't believe the conclusion.
[11:29] So I went and I looked at the data and
[11:31] Tom was right. So
[11:33] >> the Michigan Consumer Survey, I think it
[11:35] was two or three years ago, switched
[11:37] from their traditional methodology to
[11:39] now they do a lot of it online.
[11:41] >> In that switch, I'm going to give them
[11:43] credit and say this was not intentional.
[11:44] It was not nefarious. There's no kind
[11:46] of, you know, grand conspiracy theory,
[11:47] whatever, but they publish Republican
[11:50] and Democrat breakdown of the survey
[11:53] pool. It used to be almost dead 50/50.
[11:56] They're very good at surveying. I think
[11:58] it was a very reliable metric. It
[12:00] appears, let's call two years ago when
[12:02] they switched the survey methodology
[12:04] that now in the data that they report,
[12:06] they survey 2/3 Democrats, one-third
[12:09] Republican.
[12:10] >> Now, the reason why Tom called this out
[12:12] was he said, "Look, forget all the
[12:13] politics nonsense. It's just that at the
[12:15] time when he published his report,
[12:17] Democrats were saying that inflation was
[12:19] going to be over 5%. Republicans were
[12:20] saying it was going to be under 2%.
[12:22] >> So like the political, you know, bias
[12:24] drastically uh changed the way that
[12:27] people looked at the future of inflation
[12:28] and at the consumer sentiment.
[12:32] >> I I'm I'm not able to say that the
[12:35] survey is uh right or wrong. What I
[12:38] think that I've come to the conclusion
[12:40] of, it's not a reliable data point. How
[12:42] do you think about it? Do you still use
[12:44] it?
[12:45] >> Um, first of all, to to get rid of a
[12:48] data point and try to explain out to me
[12:50] is is is crap.
[12:53] >> Um, all data matters. You can explain
[12:56] any one data point away. So, I'm not
[12:58] saying that this data point by itself.
[13:00] >> Mhm.
[13:00] >> But if I said to you, is affordability a
[13:02] major issue in the political parties?
[13:05] >> Well, it dep it depends for half the
[13:06] country. The other half, no.
[13:08] >> You think there is half the country that
[13:10] is not saying that affordability is not
[13:12] an issue? that young people don't feel
[13:14] like
[13:14] >> oh oh you're saying are they t I'm
[13:16] saying that half of the country does not
[13:18] have affordability issues the other half
[13:19] of the country does but I think both
[13:21] political parties are very focused on
[13:23] because they understand that they need
[13:24] the votes from that group that is
[13:25] affected by it and so it is a major
[13:27] political issue
[13:27] >> yeah I mean again if
[13:29] >> mom Donnie and Trump both are talking
[13:30] about affordability
[13:31] >> exactly on both sides it's in the ven
[13:34] diagram of politics affordability is a
[13:36] major issue in
[13:37] >> agree with that yeah
[13:38] >> are job fears a major issue of course
[13:41] they are that's all I need to That is
[13:43] that chart broken out by the two
[13:45] components.
[13:45] >> But are job but are the job fears rooted
[13:47] in data or they rooted in narrative?
[13:49] Maybe it doesn't matter.
[13:50] >> It doesn't matter to me. Again, I So
[13:52] surveys are feelings.
[13:54] >> They're not facts.
[13:55] >> Agreed.
[13:55] >> Um and how people feel to me they're
[13:59] scared of AI. They don't like AI. Okay,
[14:01] that's a problem. They may not like the
[14:03] war. They may not like this. Is gas at
[14:05] the pump much higher than it was? Of
[14:08] course. So that's not a pot. You can go
[14:10] through things, but if I look at the
[14:13] Michigan finance thing, I look at since
[14:15] gas at the pump went up, it spiked
[14:17] higher. If I go overlay those things
[14:19] with gas, if you try to argue away
[14:22] things, you get in this very dangerous
[14:24] game. I don't view any one data point by
[14:26] itself as mattering.
[14:29] I see what's happening in the country. I
[14:32] see what's going on through the
[14:33] politics. I see what's happening in the
[14:35] way people think about things. I hear
[14:38] them. they're not happy. And so, yes, I
[14:42] do believe it's 50-50 in the country,
[14:43] and I think it'll stay that way. And if
[14:45] we switch parties, then the other party
[14:47] will go down to hating things. And I
[14:48] agree with that. And that Michigan stuff
[14:50] has always been that way. And I think
[14:51] that just shows how polarized the
[14:53] country is. But polarization to me comes
[14:56] to a large degree with the way that the
[14:57] blue states and the red states are
[14:59] trying to handle the problems. Wealth
[15:00] taxes are going up. Like,
[15:02] >> so the anger, no matter where you fit
[15:04] in, is the distribution of wealth
[15:06] problem in the country. You you mean the
[15:07] mayor of New York City standing outside
[15:08] of one of the residences, one of his
[15:10] citizens residences, explicitly calling
[15:13] him out is is new.
[15:15] >> So So my my view on this as someone who
[15:17] who does not focus on politics and my
[15:20] decision-m in in in how I invest
[15:23] technology is a very disruptive force
[15:25] and it forces politicians to give money
[15:27] to people. It forces politicians to take
[15:30] money for people. But those problems get
[15:32] worse when the size of the deficit and
[15:34] the debt is at levels that is normally
[15:36] associated with a recession. So no
[15:38] matter how you go through the University
[15:40] of Michigan thing, the fact of the
[15:41] matter is because of the debt and
[15:42] deficit problem, that's why we're in
[15:44] this we're in a recession for the bulk
[15:46] of the country for semiconductors. No.
[15:49] But for consumer goods, for housing and
[15:51] all that stuff, autos, it's a recession.
[15:55] >> Clarify this a little bit. So when you
[15:56] say recession, um, if I look at the
[15:58] data, it shows that home prices have
[16:00] essentially top ticked and have now
[16:02] turned over and are starting to come
[16:03] down. Now, it's not 10% drops in home
[16:05] prices, but if you go if you look on,
[16:07] you know, home volume sales are at like
[16:09] nine uh 9-year lows or something. If you
[16:11] go and you look at one of my favorite
[16:13] things is to go to different locations
[16:15] on like Zillow and just look at, hey,
[16:17] how many homes have dropped more than,
[16:18] you know, 5 or 10% over the last 12
[16:20] months, whatever.
[16:21] >> Pretty significant. you know, when you
[16:22] look at different uh areas, you're
[16:24] talking about a recession in the sense
[16:26] of prices are coming down the same way a
[16:27] stock market recession would be, or are
[16:29] you talking about something else?
[16:30] >> No. And so, just like a depression is a
[16:33] psychological thing. I'm not a big thing
[16:35] on a recession for anything that is not
[16:37] growing to me is in a recession.
[16:39] >> The housing market is not growing. We're
[16:41] near all-time lows and things. People
[16:42] can't afford housing. They're trapped in
[16:44] housing because their mortgage rates are
[16:45] low and if they go out. So, there's
[16:47] nothing happening there. There's nothing
[16:48] happening in autos. Um, commercial real
[16:50] estate's in a recession. Mhm.
[16:52] >> Like software is in a recession now
[16:54] outside of AI. So there's plenty of
[16:56] places. Now this always happens in an
[16:58] economy. So you can't say that GDP is
[17:01] not good, which is why I say GDP will be
[17:03] fine. But the problem is for people who
[17:05] are consumers that are not in the top
[17:08] 10%.
[17:10] Their wages are not growing and the
[17:13] inflation was reset at higher levels.
[17:15] any part of inflation that ticks up,
[17:18] even if it's only for 3 to 6 months,
[17:20] unless their wages move up at the same
[17:23] time, it's an issue. Now, if this comes
[17:26] at a time when the AI agents are getting
[17:29] here, meaning digital employees are
[17:30] there, it puts pressure on this and that
[17:33] voting block, particularly the ones in
[17:35] New York City, highly educated or
[17:38] educated,
[17:39] >> who have student loans, who can't afford
[17:42] to live in a city where they can get
[17:44] paying jobs, which is what their vision
[17:45] is. So again, this is more
[17:47] psychological, but this is the reason
[17:49] why I focused my attention on Bitcoin is
[17:51] because at some point these pressures
[17:53] grow. And I believe that the ultimate
[17:55] time was when number one, software or
[17:57] growth assets were no longer an
[17:58] investable place. I think we're there.
[18:00] Number two, if we get to the point where
[18:02] inflation is above interest rates,
[18:06] that's really a representation of
[18:07] something very different than where we
[18:09] were in 2021 and 2022. The Fed raised
[18:11] rates, but the job market was insane.
[18:15] Labor had the advantage over capital.
[18:17] YOLO was a big thing. People were you
[18:19] had to beg people had three jobs.
[18:21] >> Exactly. You had to beg people to come
[18:23] back to work.
[18:24] >> It's a completely different scenario
[18:26] now.
[18:26] >> All right. But I want to talk about this
[18:27] inflation thing. So I actually think you
[18:28] and I disagree on this which is good. Um
[18:31] >> I don't think we actually do.
[18:33] >> Maybe not. Even better. Um today's
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[19:16] there. Go in the description and look
[19:18] how to spell my name and use code
[19:20] Pompiano to get 25% off your pass to
[19:22] join me there. I'm a very big believer
[19:25] that there are certain things that are
[19:27] definitely experiencing inflation in the
[19:28] economy. Gas is up, right? Things like
[19:30] that. But I believe that the structural
[19:33] more macro trend is deflation via
[19:37] tariffs, deportations, AI, robotics. And
[19:41] I know you may not be the biggest fan of
[19:42] trueflation. I use that as my main
[19:44] metric. That has spiked from the 08. It
[19:47] went all the way up to like 0.1 uh 1.7.
[19:50] It has now come back down and settle
[19:51] somewhere like the 1.2 1.3 range. Um so
[19:54] I agree that CPI is likely to go higher
[19:56] as it did, but it's not going to go
[19:57] nearly as high as everyone thinks it is.
[19:59] What I find,
[20:00] >> where do you think it's not going to go
[20:01] to? So, we can you you you made a vague
[20:03] statement. I've already said it's going
[20:04] above four. Where do you think it's not
[20:06] going to? Headline inflation, not true
[20:08] inflation, headline CPI. I think that
[20:11] there is um if I use true inflation 98%
[20:16] correlation of CPI with a one-mon lag
[20:18] then the next CPI print as of today
[20:20] we're only halfway through the month so
[20:22] let's see what happens the rest of this
[20:23] month but as of right now inflation will
[20:25] basically be flat to where the uh the
[20:28] latest print is what is a little we have
[20:30] to go back and look is um at the
[20:32] beginning of April the true inflation
[20:34] number actually went from 1.7 to 1.2 to
[20:37] it dropped.
[20:37] >> Mhm. And so there is a good chance that
[20:40] the next CPI print that we get in March
[20:43] April uh time frame um will be flattish
[20:48] right and that could be plus or minus
[20:49] let's say plus or minus.5
[20:52] which what inflation was 3
[20:55] >> three
[20:55] >> so we wouldn't get over four in the next
[20:57] one now I could be wrong but I think
[21:00] that band somewhere in the like let's
[21:02] call it 3 to 4% range but pretty much
[21:04] flat it's not going to in my opinion
[21:06] spike to over 5%. Now, could the
[21:08] correlation break between true inflation
[21:10] and CPI? 100%. Right? There's certain
[21:12] things that they do in their calculation
[21:14] that CPI doesn't and vice versa,
[21:16] whatever. But what I find the most
[21:18] interesting about thinking through this
[21:19] right now is
[21:21] let's give credit to True Inflation and
[21:23] say that they are accurate in the
[21:24] consumer inflation measurements that
[21:26] they use. It's real time. It's blah blah
[21:27] blah whatever. And let's say that it is
[21:29] going to somewhere in the 3.3 3.5 range
[21:32] is where we're going to kind of hang out
[21:34] for a little bit. M
[21:36] >> commodities are exploding higher. Some
[21:39] of these things are doubled in price
[21:41] very very quickly. And so what I then
[21:43] started to think about is have we ever
[21:45] had a situation where consumer inflation
[21:47] did not spike but commodities did spike
[21:50] higher? You've been doing this longer
[21:52] than I have. Like can you think of a
[21:54] single time where that's actually
[21:55] occurred?
[21:56] >> Well, first of all, you've left
[21:57] something really important. All right.
[21:58] when you say commodities um the most
[22:01] important commodity in all of our lives
[22:03] over the last and again I I I I'm not
[22:05] gonna I don't want to pick on true
[22:07] inflation okay I'm a professional who's
[22:10] had many quants come in and give me
[22:11] their back test so it's all well and
[22:13] good
[22:14] >> um let's just say I I differ in where
[22:17] inflation is going to be on headline
[22:18] inflation um and again I admit when I'm
[22:21] wrong so if I'm wrong I'll be wrong
[22:22] >> we'll see
[22:23] >> um the most important commodity in your
[22:25] life
[22:25] >> the Jordy Pomp betting market on uh
[22:27] inflation
[22:28] Um, the most important commodity in your
[22:30] life that has occurred over the course
[22:32] of the last 17 years is semiconductors.
[22:35] >> True.
[22:36] >> They're in everything.
[22:37] >> Yes.
[22:38] >> Everything in your home, everything in
[22:40] your car is loaded with semis. We're
[22:43] out.
[22:43] >> Mhm.
[22:44] >> So, import price and export price
[22:47] inflation for South Korea this week
[22:51] above 18% and above 20%.
[22:54] >> Mhm.
[22:55] >> We don't make semis here. we import them
[22:58] the import price inflation. So I think
[23:00] this whole nuance of people is we've
[23:03] never seen anything like this. This is
[23:04] why back tests do not tell you what the
[23:06] future
[23:06] >> So you're basically making the argument
[23:07] just to make sure I understand you're
[23:08] making the argument that uh or part of
[23:10] the argument take semiconductors which
[23:13] is a small but very important component
[23:16] of inflation. You're almost saying, hey,
[23:18] it is spiking so aggressively that even
[23:20] if everything else appears to be okay,
[23:23] this huge gain in this one area could
[23:25] substantially impact headline inflation.
[23:27] >> It's more than that. We all pay for
[23:28] Wi-Fi. We all like every single thing in
[23:31] our life to some degree has associated
[23:33] with it. The electricity prices, the
[23:35] power, all of that stuff. So
[23:38] >> at some point you you have to look at
[23:40] inflation and go when you say a
[23:41] consumer, a consumer buys semiconductors
[23:44] every day. their phone is arguably their
[23:46] most important thing. True. We have a
[23:48] shortage of this stuff. Like I'll be
[23:51] showing this weekend that inflation and
[23:54] I mean this is I mean I hate to say it
[23:56] but we can't make as many phones. Now
[23:58] phones are not being purchased right now
[24:00] in any big way but the reason is cuz the
[24:02] prices are going higher. So this doesn't
[24:04] change the fact that if you take an
[24:05] iPhone and you change the price from
[24:08] let's say the lowest end 500 to 550 once
[24:11] it's a 10% rise. It happens in a month.
[24:13] It doesn't mean that every month it's
[24:15] going to go higher. So it's one of the
[24:16] things about this, but when silver
[24:19] prices go higher and they're involved in
[24:20] every semi, you know, in every
[24:21] semiconductor, then semiconductors
[24:23] continue an inch higher. Memory, I think
[24:26] people just have to go through debating
[24:28] whether inflation is going higher or
[24:29] lower for the next few years. You
[24:32] mentioned humanoids. To get to the
[24:34] deflationary part of humanoids, we have
[24:36] to have inflation because we need to buy
[24:38] all the semiconductors. So when Alon Mus
[24:40] says, "I need5 to$13 trillion worth of
[24:46] semiconductors over to be able to do
[24:48] what I want to do." We're not built for
[24:50] that. And so the commodity thing cannot
[24:52] be minimized. Your your question is
[24:54] valid. the transfer mechanism and this
[24:56] is one of the reasons why if I were to
[24:58] sit and intellectually go back and forth
[25:01] with the way they thought about
[25:02] trueflation if you try to back test
[25:04] things and I've seen the correlation
[25:06] I've seen the overlay it looks perfect
[25:08] up until co and then it starts to break
[25:10] away a little bit what happened in co is
[25:13] very different than the prior decade and
[25:15] it's not to say that they're they're not
[25:17] right and I'm not wrong but I've just
[25:19] been through a bunch of these that if in
[25:21] if commodities are an inflationary
[25:22] period where the the bottom of crude is
[25:24] now appear. We were just in a commodity
[25:27] bare market for a decade.
[25:28] >> Mhm.
[25:29] >> If we're in a bull market for
[25:30] commodities for a decade, I think the
[25:31] historical correlations of people that
[25:33] fitted things to a very good
[25:35] correlation, they might break down a
[25:37] little bit. And again, I could be wrong
[25:38] on this, but I think for certain we have
[25:40] shortages of semiconductors and
[25:42] commodities for the foreseeable future.
[25:44] And I think that's going to translate
[25:45] into
[25:47] >> less predictable inflation that happened
[25:49] in the past. So earlier this year, I
[25:52] think you and I talked about like this
[25:53] is kind of uh the tariff tantrum all
[25:56] over again. Everyone's freaking out.
[25:57] It's going to be fine. Relax. You know,
[25:59] see through the noise.
[26:02] If I go back and I think about and try
[26:04] to be as intellectually honest as why
[26:05] did I think there wasn't going to be
[26:06] really high inflation when the tariffs
[26:08] were there. One was actually had nothing
[26:10] to do with data. It was all about like
[26:12] there was consensus and out and descent
[26:14] was outlawed and so just like there's no
[26:16] way that everyone got it right all
[26:17] together at the same time. So, there was
[26:18] something about that that like gave me
[26:19] the spidey sense of, hey, the consensus
[26:22] is probably wrong. The second thing was
[26:24] I always think back to and it's so
[26:26] funny. I don't know if you ever seen the
[26:27] uh Bill Aman video on YouTube of like
[26:29] the complex economic machine,
[26:31] >> right? And he pulls up all these things.
[26:33] What? It's a very good video if like if
[26:34] you're starting from zero, right? But if
[26:36] you've been doing it for a while, you're
[26:37] like, "Hey, this is not really designed
[26:38] to, you know, for me." Um, but in that
[26:40] he does talk about the complexity and
[26:42] there's a lot of moving parts and all
[26:43] this stuff. And if we think back to that
[26:46] moment, why did inflation not explode
[26:48] higher? First of all, there was the
[26:50] whole like taco, you know, hey, there's
[26:51] a 20% tariff, let's bring it back down.
[26:53] But two was there was a ton of other
[26:55] moving parts. Deportations, AI, all this
[26:58] stuff. So, it's very hard to say, hey,
[26:59] what is the impact is one thing
[27:01] >> right now feels like a similar thing.
[27:03] So, take semiconductors as an example.
[27:06] >> I look and and it's not perfect because
[27:08] there's all these people attacking it
[27:10] from different angles. But now the world
[27:11] realizes we need semiconductors. And so
[27:13] you have some people who are trying to
[27:15] build chips. You have some people who
[27:16] are trying to build, you know, the fabs,
[27:18] terap fabs, you know, type stuff,
[27:19] whatever. You have people in the United
[27:21] States, outside the United States. It's
[27:22] like the gold rush is on. And the thing
[27:25] is different than software is it's much
[27:27] harder to build hardware, right? It's
[27:29] much harder to design things. And so,
[27:31] um, I wonder how sustainable or
[27:35] resilient is potential inflation in
[27:38] these products if there is massive
[27:41] competition on the way. Now, does the
[27:43] competition actually have a product that
[27:44] they can bring to the market in 12
[27:46] months, 18 months, 5 years? I I'm not an
[27:49] expert on, you know, what those
[27:50] timelines look like, but you would think
[27:52] that, okay, there's this inflationary
[27:54] thing, which means the economic reward
[27:56] is increasing for whoever can supply the
[27:58] market with this product. Here comes all
[28:00] this competition. Shouldn't they bring
[28:02] the price back down as that competition
[28:04] comes to market? Or do you think that
[28:06] the demand imbalance is so great that
[28:09] even if all of these people are
[28:10] successful, we still get, you know, the
[28:12] inflationary pressure on those prices?
[28:15] >> So, let let me let me react to what you
[28:18] said about last year and give give you a
[28:20] little bit more on my thoughts last year
[28:21] about why we agreed on on the inflation
[28:23] front last year. Um,
[28:26] there were three components that were
[28:27] important to me with with the tariffs.
[28:29] Number one, wages were in decline.
[28:31] Number two, housing was in decline. Uh
[28:34] and number three, oil was not moving and
[28:37] I didn't think was going to move.
[28:39] >> So last year at this point and even
[28:41] coming into this year, I was not
[28:42] concerned about the things I'm concerned
[28:45] about now.
[28:46] >> What is a mistake is when you get new
[28:49] information, the whole part of having a
[28:51] basian mind is you have to think about
[28:54] what happened and whether it matters
[28:56] longer term.
[28:56] >> Mhm.
[28:57] >> What happened in the Straits of Hormuz
[28:59] has changed the world. Anyone who
[29:01] doesn't agree with that, in my opinion,
[29:03] is just wrong.
[29:05] >> Now, does it mean that the world's going
[29:07] to end and that everything should be on
[29:08] fire? No. But does it reset oil higher
[29:12] than it was at the beginning of the
[29:13] year? Does it mean the thing that I
[29:15] thought was never going to be a part of
[29:17] this? Because oil was an archaic thing
[29:19] that was more necessary.
[29:21] >> Where did we start the year with oil? 55
[29:24] 60 before the war. It was 63ish.
[29:26] >> 60. Okay. So, let's just call $60. Y
[29:28] right now. Uh, as of the recording of
[29:30] this, we're around uh 80 bucks 80 $83 we
[29:33] crashed down to uh as the straight got
[29:35] opened. Where do you think we end the
[29:36] year? Is it like 80 is a pretty good
[29:39] spot and that's you know 30% higher than
[29:41] where we started the year or do you
[29:42] think it goes down from here up? Like
[29:43] what's your kind of
[29:44] >> So let let's do it by the end of the
[29:46] year I I'm going to guess that the
[29:48] normal progression of this is that
[29:50] somewhere around 80 to 75 even is is
[29:53] where it is. So higher than
[29:54] >> but still but still higher 25% higher.
[29:56] >> Here's the thing I would say. I think
[29:58] there's going to be more episodic
[30:00] >> spikes. Spikes
[30:01] >> like the volatility frequency will
[30:02] increase.
[30:03] >> I I And here here's the thing. Number
[30:06] one was the disruption where we got rid
[30:08] of the the available barrels that were
[30:11] out there. The other issue that comes
[30:13] out is
[30:15] this was a warning sign to Asia in
[30:17] particular.
[30:19] They need more energy. So the hoarding
[30:22] aspect of it won't go below a certain
[30:24] price. So if anything, I'd air on
[30:26] higher. I don't think we're getting back
[30:27] to 63. Second thing is remember PMIs are
[30:30] going higher.
[30:31] >> Transportation stocks are on fire. So
[30:34] the economy is actually growing on the
[30:36] part that is very intensive for oil. So
[30:39] I always thought I mean historically if
[30:41] PMIs are up high, oil follows. So I
[30:44] thought it was good to have energy
[30:45] stocks for that reason. So when you look
[30:47] back to last year, we've changed the oil
[30:49] component. We haven't changed the
[30:50] housing component. We haven't changed
[30:52] the wages. That's why I can live with
[30:54] core inflation and service-based stuff
[30:56] doesn't spike as much as energy. I also
[30:58] am fine with the fact that we're not
[30:59] going back to 8 to 9% CPI in the
[31:01] headline. Do I think we'll be above
[31:03] four? Yes. Do I think we'll be volatile
[31:06] above four? Yeah, I think we're going to
[31:08] be seeing prints that are no longer zero
[31:10] and point.2 because I think when you
[31:12] move oil to a higher level and you
[31:14] combine it with what I said in the
[31:16] shortages in AI that are only
[31:17] intensifying and we haven't talked about
[31:19] it, we are out of CPUs
[31:21] >> a year. Explain that. Explain that.
[31:24] >> So, we've heard I mean Nvidia's been
[31:26] making GPUs and we hear about you know
[31:29] Hoppers and Blackwell and Vera Rubin and
[31:32] fighting over tariffs. Are we going to
[31:33] give them chips? CPUs last year were a
[31:36] dead thing. The thing that's mainly used
[31:38] in phones, old school stuff. Intel was
[31:41] trading at $20. Literally, there were
[31:44] wor worries that it would go out of
[31:46] business. The government made an
[31:47] investment in it a year ago. The stock's
[31:50] now at all-time highs
[31:52] in the span of one year. And if you go
[31:55] into any place and type in what's the
[31:58] situation in CPUs, there are none. Just
[32:01] like there was no DRAM. So we've now
[32:04] gone to where memory that's all because
[32:06] of the agentic world. So the problem is
[32:09] what was unexpected again from an
[32:11] inflationary component for this year was
[32:13] how fast AI agents would take over. That
[32:15] is the supersonic tsunami. That is the
[32:17] point of clawed opus 4.5 to 4.6 and now
[32:21] 4.7 mythos mythos all of them
[32:24] accelerated to a point that people
[32:26] didn't expect. And so there is nothing
[32:28] happening when you throw in what Elon
[32:30] Musk said. Elon said, "I need an
[32:34] enormous amount of CPUs." And there are
[32:36] three foundaries in the world. So, so
[32:38] people realize how long it's going to
[32:40] take to fix this problem. You need
[32:42] lithography. Well, that's controlled by
[32:45] one company on the planet. ASML
[32:47] currently, they can only make a certain
[32:49] amount. These are massive things that
[32:51] take a lot of money. Number you have
[32:54] three foundaries that are the ones that
[32:55] are actually making the final chip.
[32:59] Samsung, Taiwan Semi, and Intel.
[33:03] Elon did a deal last year, secure all
[33:06] his chips from Samsung on things he
[33:08] designed.
[33:10] Now he's doing he's he wants to do a
[33:12] terraab because he's like, I'm I can't
[33:15] have this the supply chain that's
[33:17] necessary for lithography, for the
[33:19] designs, to the foundaries, to get my
[33:21] chips, for my humanoids, my automobiles,
[33:23] my space stations. I'm not gonna have
[33:25] enough. This would be way too much. So
[33:27] Elon Musk is telling the world with his
[33:29] terra fab announcement,
[33:32] I'm glad you guys are worried about
[33:33] semis today. This is because digital
[33:35] employees came out of nowhere. But the
[33:36] next stage is not just the digital
[33:39] employees. It's the physical digital
[33:41] employees. And for those I need an
[33:44] enormous amount of chips. And so the CPU
[33:47] rise is not something that is going to
[33:49] be solved quickly. And so you end up in
[33:51] a situation where everyone is trying to
[33:53] get AI. And for AI, they need a
[33:55] combination of GPUs or TPUs or some form
[34:00] of that. But at the same time, they need
[34:01] this memory side, which is part of the
[34:03] issue we've had, and we need CPUs. So,
[34:06] we've already been out of transformers.
[34:07] We've already been out of gas turbines.
[34:09] We're out of switching gear. I mean, how
[34:11] many times do people need to hear this
[34:12] stuff and not realize this is not 2010
[34:16] to 2020 when inflation was low and
[34:19] consistently low? This is a completely
[34:22] different period. We have reached the
[34:23] physical limits of what AI needs to
[34:26] accelerate to the deflationary point
[34:28] we're talking about. You need to build
[34:30] stuff on mass scale to get to deflation.
[34:34] So, every Eric Schmidt's talked about
[34:36] it. Elon Musk has talked about it.
[34:37] They're way smarter than you and I on
[34:39] this. I just listen to them and hear
[34:40] what they have to say. Yeah, I am uh
[34:45] I might be too bullish, but I am very
[34:48] bullish on the fact that competition is
[34:51] coming in all these different sectors
[34:53] and Elon is obviously, you know, pushing
[34:56] the pace here. Um, but another component
[34:58] we don't really talk a lot because we
[34:59] spend so much time on stocks and and
[35:01] Bitcoin and stuff like that. In the
[35:02] private market, the amount of capital
[35:05] that is now available is enormous
[35:08] compared to what it was 1015 years ago.
[35:10] And I think that the venture capitalists
[35:12] have psychologically switched from go
[35:15] find the B2B SAS tool that's got you
[35:17] know very kind of capital light type
[35:19] model to now they are very open to kind
[35:22] of returning to where venture capital
[35:23] started which is like let's go invest in
[35:24] the hardware let's go invest in all
[35:26] these things and what that is allowing
[35:29] are kind I know multiple companies that
[35:32] are doing very hard things whether it's
[35:34] compute whether it's chip stuff whe you
[35:36] know something in the stack of AI
[35:39] they're raising out of the gate hundreds
[35:41] of millions of dollars doesn't mean
[35:42] they'll be successful but does mean that
[35:45] as they kind of hit the market over the
[35:47] next let's call it 5 years that impact
[35:50] is really hard to predict and so I just
[35:52] become this believer of like will the
[35:54] price of semiconductors be higher or
[35:56] lower 5 years from now I think they'll
[35:57] be lower now I could be wrong and it
[36:01] really just comes down to like is there
[36:03] more competition or not if we stay with
[36:05] three you know uh producers we stay with
[36:08] you know one company that can do the
[36:09] lithograph et like no of course they're
[36:11] going higher
[36:12] >> and to me that is the hardest part
[36:13] because there's not uh a lot of
[36:15] transparency into how many of those
[36:16] companies are there how successful are
[36:19] they going to be where's their
[36:19] technology at how good are they BD like
[36:22] there's all of these components to
[36:23] underwriting that unless it is your
[36:25] full-time job you kind of hear okay
[36:27] there's a couple of companies doing this
[36:28] this one's interesting this one's
[36:30] interesting I don't know Elon's probably
[36:32] the closest thing and he's very public
[36:34] about what he's trying to do so we know
[36:36] that
[36:37] but to me that's actually the question
[36:39] it's less about what happens to the
[36:40] existing guys and it's more about are
[36:42] these you know kind of early stage bets
[36:44] going to pan out or not.
[36:46] >> So in the Dark Cash Patel interview with
[36:48] Jensen Yuan Jensen made it very clear
[36:52] if you take anthropics needs now.
[36:55] >> So when you see a revenue run rate that
[36:57] looks like this that is about demand.
[37:00] >> Insane.
[37:00] >> So demand is going at a pace we've never
[37:02] seen before. The reason we're running
[37:04] out of chips is because of that chart.
[37:06] Well, that chart can only slow down
[37:09] because we don't have enough AI compute.
[37:12] So, when we say chips, I don't have a
[37:14] problem because Elon has said we're
[37:16] going to have a bunch of idle chips that
[37:18] people have purchased sitting around
[37:20] this year, but that's not because of
[37:23] price coming down.
[37:24] >> Mhm.
[37:25] >> That's because we don't have the power.
[37:26] >> Power. Yeah. So again, when you say all
[37:28] these things, I'm going to bring it back
[37:30] to
[37:32] in the history of mankind, you need
[37:34] whatever innovation happens, eventually
[37:36] you're turning electrons into some
[37:40] output. In this case, it's tokens.
[37:42] >> So Claude is raising the prices of
[37:44] tokens right now for enterprises. And
[37:48] you had the Uber CTO basically come out
[37:50] and say, "We can't afford this." That
[37:53] never happened. I'm running out of
[37:55] usage. So, we're clearly at that compute
[37:57] shortage time. Now, you can say chips.
[38:00] That's great. But, as Jensen said,
[38:02] there's three components to this.
[38:03] There's the chips, there's the engineers
[38:05] that make the chips more efficient,
[38:06] which is what the Chinese did with
[38:08] Deepseek. But at the end of the day, you
[38:10] need the power. Like, you need the
[38:12] power. Power is the most important
[38:13] component. And that's why Elon is
[38:15] focused not on getting away from the
[38:17] foundaries. And again, he's going to
[38:18] build the foundry. Who's the fastest,
[38:21] most capitalized builder of competition?
[38:23] It's Elon
[38:24] >> 100%. and he's saying it's going to I
[38:26] mean he needs to do a massive size.
[38:28] That's why to your point I forget anyone
[38:32] who's raising VC money. VC money was
[38:34] meant for software. These are largecale
[38:37] investments. Part of that interview with
[38:38] Jensen Yu Wong he talks about his
[38:40] biggest regret. His biggest regret was
[38:42] not investing in anthropic. But the
[38:44] reason he didn't invest in Anthropic at
[38:46] the time as he talked about was I didn't
[38:48] have that kind of capital that they
[38:50] needed because the dollars that OpenAI
[38:53] just raised $122 billion. It's bigger
[38:56] than most S&P 500 companies. So those
[39:00] dollars being raised are because we need
[39:02] hardware, we need power, we need data
[39:04] centers, and those data centers are
[39:05] being delayed by politics. They're being
[39:07] delayed by energy. They're being
[39:08] delayed. So the bottlenecks that you're
[39:10] talking about to get to there, that's
[39:11] all well and good. It's far more
[39:13] complicated and it goes down. And if the
[39:15] Chinese say no rare earth for anybody.
[39:19] That's why this thing is a geopolitical
[39:21] game of commodities. And I don't want
[39:23] people to under I don't want them to
[39:25] underestimate the risk associated with
[39:27] supply shortages at a time. We have not
[39:30] lived in that world for most people
[39:32] managing money or going through. Most
[39:33] people are sitting in growth assets. If
[39:36] we can't get enough compute, what
[39:39] happens to these companies that are
[39:40] spending all of this money? And those
[39:42] bottlenecks can be power, they can be
[39:44] GPUs, they can be CPUs, they can be
[39:46] DRAM. It sounds like what Jensen is
[39:48] saying, I got plenty of GPUs. GPUs are
[39:50] not the issue. The issues are the gas
[39:52] turbines, the politics of where the data
[39:54] centers are going to be. We need more
[39:55] power. And that's why when you go
[39:56] through terraab, terapab is to make
[39:58] chips to supply humanoids, autonomous
[40:02] vehicles, but also
[40:05] space data centers. He wants to go raise
[40:09] this money in terms of SpaceX to take
[40:11] that money, go build the terraab because
[40:13] he knows we don't have enough power on
[40:16] the earth for what I need and I need to
[40:19] go into space to get it. And he's not
[40:20] the only one that's saying that. This is
[40:22] a very complex thing. It
[40:23] >> it it's so funny to me to hear him talk
[40:24] about this. uh the um like small nuclear
[40:27] reactors or whatever. He basically is
[40:29] like that's cute. You know, he's very
[40:31] dismissive and it is not lost on me that
[40:34] Sam Alman is the backer/cofounder of one
[40:38] of the most popular companies in that
[40:39] space and those two guys uh there's no
[40:42] love lost.
[40:42] >> It's going to be a summer to remember in
[40:44] Silicon Valley.
[40:45] >> But you know he's very dismissive of
[40:47] that idea and his whole thing is like
[40:48] hey in you know the sun is available
[40:51] 24/7. What are we talking about? It's
[40:52] the greatest, you know, reactor, but
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[43:30] I have a friend who runs a business and
[43:33] they sell a lot of the hardware
[43:35] components that are used in the
[43:37] electrical industry. So if you run a
[43:40] data center, they sell you. If you're an
[43:42] AI provider, they sell to you, right?
[43:43] And they are not trying to, at least as
[43:45] of now, go and actually, you know, build
[43:48] the the full data center, go and get the
[43:49] power, etc. They are, you know,
[43:51] essentially selling you all of the
[43:52] component parts that are used.
[43:54] >> Great business.
[43:56] He and I were recently talking about uh
[43:59] just talking about his business,
[44:00] catching up, and he said to me, he goes,
[44:01] "Yeah, the other day I was uh I I was
[44:03] googling what's needed for a space data
[44:05] center." And I was like, "What do you
[44:06] mean?" And he was like, "Well, I sell
[44:08] parts to data centers on Earth. if this
[44:10] is going to be a thing, I want to be the
[44:12] person selling components here. And you
[44:13] know, he's like telling about radiation
[44:15] and this and that. And I was like, oh,
[44:18] Elon kind of decreed and now you
[44:20] actually are seeing through the entire
[44:22] supply chain people are preparing. Now,
[44:24] do we get there? Do they actually do it?
[44:25] You know, a lot of questions, but
[44:27] >> that to me was I mean, he is literally
[44:30] the last component, you know, like like
[44:33] the smallest component uh supplier.
[44:36] >> Yep.
[44:36] >> All the way up to Elon. If everyone
[44:38] starts saying, "Hey, Space Data
[44:40] Centers," like it's coming.
[44:41] >> Yeah. And and to that point, I I I wrote
[44:44] a report this week, which I'm releasing
[44:47] on the subscriber website this weekend,
[44:51] which is all about edge devices, which
[44:52] is so he talks about the need for edge
[44:55] devices. And what people need to realize
[44:57] is we're transitioning away from just
[44:59] cloud data centers and things like
[45:01] mythos mythos make it more important for
[45:03] you to have both on premise and edge
[45:07] approaches because if everything's in
[45:09] the cloud everything's going to get
[45:10] hacked. So people need things secure and
[45:12] on their own thing. It's why Mac minis
[45:14] and um and Mac studios and all these
[45:17] things are gone partly because of the
[45:19] CPU needs but partly because of the
[45:20] demand from OpenClaw and the agentic
[45:22] side. This report was meant to show
[45:24] people and when I went through it, I
[45:26] think there's 13 verticals of
[45:28] investments and there's about five names
[45:31] per. So I have about 68 names within
[45:33] there. Some of them are very similar to
[45:35] the thematic portfolio list I have that
[45:37] people have seen. But a lot of them are
[45:40] names like you said there's chips that
[45:42] have to deal with radiation because the
[45:43] one thing that's constant in space or
[45:45] down here you may not need the same sort
[45:47] of you don't need gas turbines, you
[45:49] don't need things like that. You have
[45:50] the sun but you still need
[45:51] semiconductors. you still need chips,
[45:53] which is why it's called a terra fab
[45:55] because he's trying to replicate very
[45:57] quickly or as fast as he can what Taywan
[45:59] semi he wants to get started right away.
[46:01] So he's out there saying and I mean I'll
[46:04] show this over the weekend he's trying
[46:05] to secure the parts already. So number
[46:08] one is he going to be capitalized?
[46:10] SpaceX is going to be fully capitalized
[46:13] and whether he takes 75 billion or 100
[46:16] billion the estimated cost of the
[46:18] terafab is about 25 billion. So he just
[46:21] knows in his mind how many humanoids he
[46:23] thinks he's going to be producing and
[46:24] what he wants to be able to produce each
[46:26] year. What people have to realize about
[46:27] the the part that you were mentioning
[46:29] which I believe in. So I believe
[46:31] eventually when enough investment
[46:32] happens and we actually have humanoids,
[46:34] we will solve the the hardware issue.
[46:36] But we have to get to the point where we
[46:37] have enough chips to be able to feed the
[46:39] humanoids to be able to do this. We need
[46:40] a power to be able to do all of that.
[46:43] And so what Elon is saying is I know how
[46:46] many humanoids I need. Once we get into
[46:47] space, it'll be much easier to secure
[46:49] the commodities that we need, whether
[46:51] it's on an asteroid, whether it's on the
[46:52] moon, wherever it is. And you're
[46:54] starting to hear these conversations
[46:55] more and more. I think the most
[46:57] important thing of listening to Elon
[46:58] Musk at this point is two things. One is
[47:02] he believes that, and most people do at
[47:04] this point, for the next phase of all of
[47:07] innovation, space is critical to that.
[47:10] So that's the first thing. The second
[47:12] thing is when you read through it, his
[47:15] timeline is just compressed. And that
[47:17] means from an investor standpoint, I
[47:19] like to find situations where there's a
[47:22] problem of supply and demand because at
[47:24] the end of the day, companies make money
[47:25] on margins. And if supply and demand is
[47:27] out of balance and you get margins,
[47:28] that's what Nvidia has lived on still
[47:29] with 70% margins. So I care about
[47:31] margins, but what I really care about is
[47:33] what is the likelihood of this
[47:35] particular trend lasting for an extended
[47:37] period of time. So I don't need to be
[47:38] bailing out of things. I want secular
[47:40] movers. Apple was a secular mover. The
[47:43] Mag 7 were secular movers. I believe
[47:46] that hardware names that have a
[47:48] dominance in this that have an isolated
[47:50] thing, lithography very tough to have
[47:52] competition. The semiconductor makers
[47:55] very difficult. Um I think it was Dylan
[47:57] Patel said because we've run out of
[47:59] chips. We every chip is going up. It
[48:02] doesn't matter which semiconductor
[48:03] thing. Now is there a bubble component
[48:05] of this? Episodically these things will
[48:07] fall 20 30% like Micron did. Then Mike
[48:09] went right back to the highs very
[48:11] quickly. So I think people just have to
[48:12] get used to a market that trades
[48:14] differently in a 1970s
[48:17] style scarcity market. You get violent
[48:20] moves down, you get violent moves up.
[48:22] That's why when you give a data point
[48:23] that's from 2018 to 2025 and I go, we
[48:27] seem to be in something that's a little
[48:28] bit different just because of what's
[48:30] happening with semiconductors. But what
[48:31] do I know?
[48:32] >> Bitcoin we didn't spend that much time
[48:34] on. Um Bitcoin has been rallying. It is
[48:36] up 16 17% since the start of the Iran
[48:39] war. It's up about 26 27% from the
[48:42] bottom of the 60k uh um fall. We still
[48:47] though are 38 to 40% off the all-time
[48:51] high. Are you getting more bullish? Are
[48:54] you worried that maybe this has outrun
[48:56] itself a little bit? So, I think because
[48:59] there's not a single,
[49:02] let's say, asset that I talk about more
[49:04] on on this show over the last year than
[49:07] Bitcoin, I'm going to give you a I'm
[49:09] going give everyone watching my
[49:10] rationale behind this. So number one, um
[49:14] I am I have a macro belief that the
[49:18] endgame is about AI disrupting
[49:20] everything and people getting angrier
[49:23] and angrier about the disruption that
[49:25] comes from deflationary innovation
[49:27] impacting their jobs and their ability
[49:28] to survive and the government's need to
[49:30] provide the debt to keep them happy, but
[49:32] that debt keeping inflation at higher
[49:33] levels. So everything we talked about
[49:35] today, if I'm right, we're at a critical
[49:37] moment. that critical moment is that if
[49:39] inflation goes above where the Fed has
[49:41] rates, this is a new situation again. I
[49:44] mean, we're back in the 2010 to 2019
[49:47] period where we had zero rates and
[49:49] inflation was 2% and that's when Bitcoin
[49:51] thrived. So, I believe the conditions
[49:53] which are not about negative real rates,
[49:55] but they're about a situation. The only
[49:56] way you have negative real rates is kind
[49:58] of this dystopian type situation where
[50:00] people are not happy and they're not
[50:02] making as much money as they think they
[50:03] should. That's the first thing from a
[50:05] technical perspective and an Elliot wave
[50:07] perspective. I believe we have just
[50:10] finished a correction and I've been
[50:12] waiting patiently to kind of build off
[50:14] the lows we made in in in uh at
[50:17] 60th,000.
[50:18] But it was correlated with software. And
[50:20] the reason this is important for
[50:21] everyone listening is I believe that
[50:23] Bitcoin from a an investor standpoint is
[50:26] most similar to technology. even though
[50:30] it has a scarcity component would make
[50:31] it much more like commodities, it's
[50:34] still viewed until let's say now in my
[50:37] opinion as a growth asset. So it was
[50:39] correlated with software on the way up
[50:41] from the AI movement and it was
[50:42] correlated on the way down. Something
[50:45] changed in software this week and that's
[50:46] why I did this video. The subscribers
[50:48] who are there, if you haven't seen it,
[50:50] go look at it. And I talked about we've
[50:52] hit an inflection point in software and
[50:53] the reason is because Oracle is not a
[50:55] software name anymore. Oracle is a
[50:57] compute name. Yes, it is archaic in
[51:00] terms of it being software, but Oracle
[51:03] has something happening now because
[51:05] we've seen Nebus go up. We've seen
[51:06] Coreweave go up. We've seen Coree's CDS
[51:09] come down. We've seen the Bitcoin miners
[51:11] lead out. The ecosystem of the direct
[51:14] relationship between Bitcoin and the AI
[51:17] world is starting to act well. When you
[51:19] run out of compute, that is important
[51:21] for Bitcoin. That fits in with the
[51:23] scarcity argument. So, do I think we're
[51:25] just going to jump out of here?
[51:27] No. Did I buy call options on Micro
[51:29] Strategy this week? Yes. Did I buy
[51:31] Bitcoin this week? Yes. Did I buy it
[51:32] last week? Yes. And the reason is
[51:34] because I believe that we're in the
[51:36] beginning of an upswing. Micro Strategy
[51:38] just broke above its 50-day moving
[51:40] average for really the first time since
[51:41] Oracle fell. It also has its 50-day
[51:44] moving average pointed upward for the
[51:45] first time since October. This is the
[51:47] way that I trade markets. It's the way I
[51:49] look at them. Could I be wrong? And
[51:50] could we go through 60,000 again? I
[51:52] guess, but I'm less worried about
[51:53] software having another every name
[51:55] falls. And I think we've now got to the
[51:57] idiosyncratic thing where the market is
[51:59] starting to separate scarcity software,
[52:01] which is what Oracle is because of
[52:03] compute. It's what the miners are
[52:04] because of them having the compute.
[52:07] That's a very powerful sign that you're
[52:08] seeing scarcity be treated differently.
[52:10] I think the software names are going to
[52:12] be under attack again, but this time
[52:13] when they go down, I think Bitcoin is
[52:15] going to be going higher.
[52:16] >> I um I'm very bullish on Bitcoin through
[52:19] the end of the year. Um,
[52:21] it does feel like to me that the 4-year
[52:25] cycle got broke in the sense of you did
[52:28] not get the 85% draw down. It did not
[52:30] take nearly as long. You kind of
[52:31] shortcircuited this whole thing and you
[52:33] get this persistent bid now in the
[52:35] market. And um I wrote yesterday about
[52:38] uh stretch strc from uh micro or from
[52:42] strategy record inflows billion plus
[52:46] dollars of daily volume not moving off
[52:48] par impressive. Second is Morgan Stanley
[52:51] launched the ETF um they had over $und00
[52:54] million of inflows in the first week.
[52:56] Single most successful ETF launch in the
[52:58] history of a 100 plus year old firm.
[53:00] Yep. And then third is Charles Schwab
[53:02] just came out and said that they're
[53:03] going to empower people to directly
[53:05] trade Bitcoin in the product. Uh and
[53:07] they reportedly are doing this as a
[53:09] response to Robin Hood. And Robin Hood
[53:11] has been growing, you know, at least
[53:12] twice as fast in every m major metric
[53:14] compared to Charles Schwab.
[53:17] It's just like Wall Street. Wall Street
[53:19] is now like this thing is safe. This
[53:20] thing is the thing that I can go I can
[53:22] let my clients buy it. We should get in
[53:24] the game. We should do this. And Morgan
[53:25] Stanley has historically been, you know,
[53:27] kind of a little bit slower to do this
[53:29] stuff. And so now that we're seeing
[53:31] these people come in, it just feels like
[53:33] that persistent bid is going to be
[53:35] there. And it that is a five or 10 year
[53:37] trend. So even if you don't pay
[53:39] attention to anything else in the world,
[53:41] it's just like you have a scarce asset.
[53:43] You're turning on all these new capital,
[53:45] you know, faucets that can pour into the
[53:47] asset, it's got to go higher because
[53:49] there's only so many of them.
[53:50] >> So I'm going to direct this to anyone
[53:52] who's a running a private wealth
[53:54] management shop, an RAIA, any FAS that
[53:57] are watching. Um, by the end of this
[53:59] year, I do believe that you will need to
[54:02] have a very good narrative as to why
[54:03] this should be 3 to 5% of your
[54:05] portfolio. And I think the world is
[54:06] heading that way. You and I do this
[54:08] weekly thing, but when we started this,
[54:10] it there was a mind share of, okay,
[54:13] you've been in one silo over here and
[54:15] I've been in the other silo, and we both
[54:16] believe that the merging of the silos is
[54:18] about to happen. I think you guys
[54:20] watching that enjoy the show should have
[54:23] the two of us come to your RAAS and FAS
[54:26] and sit in front of them. we can do this
[54:28] show together but make it 100% about
[54:32] >> why Bitcoin because I think we talk
[54:35] about it as part of the context in here
[54:37] but we're getting to a point now where
[54:39] we both know the network effects are
[54:40] kicking in we both know that stable
[54:42] coins are accepted we both know what's
[54:43] going on I mentioned Bitcoin miners they
[54:45] are a part of the equation and for the
[54:47] people that run the Bitcoin miners trust
[54:49] me this is a good thing now that the
[54:50] world is out of compute so I say this
[54:52] again at some point you reach an
[54:54] inflection the inflection of demand and
[54:55] supply anthropic goes through the roof.
[54:58] Their revenue to to actually hit the 10
[55:00] times that they're talking about. They
[55:02] need more compute. They just did a deal
[55:04] with Google. They did a deal with
[55:05] Broadcom. They don't have the compute.
[55:07] That's not compute that's as good as
[55:09] Nvidia's compute. Why did they need it?
[55:11] Because it's already built. They need it
[55:13] now. We are at a point now where Bitcoin
[55:15] should matter. The Bitcoin miners should
[55:17] benefit. And they should benefit because
[55:19] the world needs to find things that are
[55:21] scarce when we're truly entering a of
[55:23] abundance because of mythos. So that's
[55:26] my cry out to them.
[55:27] >> Listen, I think that um I I see it right
[55:30] and we talked to a bunch of these RAAS
[55:32] um and uh we see it in the Sylvia
[55:34] product with the portfolios etc. is um I
[55:36] I always laugh that uh when the market
[55:38] goes down,
[55:40] >> if Sylvia is still growing assets on
[55:42] platform, that's a really good sign
[55:43] because when the market goes back up,
[55:44] it's a lot hell of a lot easier,
[55:46] right? And so when the market goes down
[55:48] 10% in the stock market, Bitcoin goes
[55:50] down, you know, 50%, you're like, man,
[55:52] this growth thing, you how do we get
[55:54] these numbers to go up? Um all right,
[55:55] what uh what are you going to do for
[55:56] your video this week?
[55:58] >> Uh it's it's a ton on the compute
[56:00] shortage. It's a lot on what I talked
[56:02] about with edge devices and Terraab. Um,
[56:05] the main theme is that the other thing
[56:07] I'm going to highlight, um, and I hope
[56:08] you don't mind me bringing up there,
[56:10] there's been a lot of outreach around
[56:12] the globe for the stuff that I do,
[56:13] particularly the videos that I do during
[56:15] the one I did during the week.
[56:16] >> Oh, you got to tell them what you built.
[56:18] >> Yeah. And that's what I did. So, in
[56:19] particular, I've had a lot of interest
[56:21] out of Asia with some firms. And so, I
[56:24] took my video this week uh, and I
[56:27] converted it into Chinese and Japanese
[56:29] with video dubbing. So, it's me speaking
[56:32] Chinese and Japanese. So,
[56:34] >> I saw a preview. It's awesome.
[56:36] >> So, if you guys around the globe have
[56:39] any interest in having my content on
[56:41] your platform, reach out. I think this
[56:44] is going to be a big thing going
[56:46] forward. Uh, I was able to kind of work
[56:49] through it over the last couple months
[56:50] and now I think I'm ready to do it in
[56:52] whatever language people want to do it
[56:53] in.
[56:54] >> Should we give out your email address?
[56:56] >> Uh, you can reach out to me at
[56:58] jordyvisissard-labs.com.
[57:01] >> All right. All right.
[57:01] >> Easy enough. exclusive
[57:03] >> Jordy at viserlabs or visser-labs.com.
[57:07] All right, we'll put it in the
[57:08] description so people can find it.
[57:10] >> That's a dangerous thing giving out your
[57:11] email, but let's see what happens.
[57:12] >> I You know what? People that watch this
[57:14] show have been very, very nice to me.
[57:16] You've been nice to me. Um, not you,
[57:19] Matt. Uh,
[57:21] now you've been okay.
[57:23] >> Jordy's going to get a bunch of you up 2
[57:25] a.m. emails.
[57:27] >> Yeah, I
[57:27] >> trading on Hyperlid on Saturday night.
[57:30] >> I'm always grateful. Don't overwhelm me,
[57:31] guys. Please. Just you'll you'll stop my
[57:33] I'll have to change my uh my business
[57:35] ad.
[57:37] Amazing. All right, guys. Thank you so
[57:38] much for watching.