Wall Street Is ALL-IN On Bitcoin

[0:00] In a world of abundance, scarcity
[0:01] becomes very valuable. And so, what is
[0:03] more scarce than Bitcoin? Not a lot. And
[0:05] especially when you have Morgan Stanley,
[0:07] BlackRock, Fidelity, all these guys
[0:08] coming in with the ETFs, you have
[0:10] Michael Saylor and strategy buying up as
[0:12] much Bitcoin as they possibly can. Like
[0:14] Bitcoin is going to do very well over
[0:16] the next decade. I think a lot of people
[0:17] have been convinced otherwise. In a
[0:19] weird way, those who stay focused and
[0:20] and understand the power of Bitcoin, the
[0:22] value of Bitcoin, I think will be
[0:23] rewarded over a long period of time.
[0:25] What's going on, guys? Today, we got a
[0:26] great conversation with John Pompiliano.
[0:27] He turns the tables and he asked me some
[0:29] questions. Talking about Bitcoin, AI,
[0:32] what's going on in the macro
[0:32] environment, oil prices, gas, PPI, CPI,
[0:36] and what is going on with all these Wall
[0:37] Street banks all of a sudden diving deep
[0:39] into the deep end of Bitcoin. All that
[0:42] much more in this conversation with John
[0:43] Pompiliano.
[0:45] All right, John, what you got for me?
[0:46] Big story of the day, Bitcoin back above
[0:48] 75,000. We finally reversed all of the
[0:51] losses that we had since Iran war
[0:53] started. Uh what do you think about
[0:55] Bitcoin being back up and on the upward
[0:56] trend?
[0:57] >> Well, it's a couple things. Like
[0:58] celebrating when you're down is really
[0:59] not, you know, the the smartest thing to
[1:01] do. But I do think that there's a sign
[1:02] of relief here. People are excited
[1:04] because, hey, we're we're starting to
[1:05] see that maybe we did bottom at $60,000.
[1:07] Now, famous last words, let's knock on
[1:09] wood. But what I would say is two
[1:10] things. One, Bitcoin has definitely been
[1:12] the shining light among a sea of red
[1:14] during the Iran war. And so, there's
[1:16] kind of this weird dynamic where if you
[1:18] said to someone before we went in to
[1:19] Iran and started bombing them, okay,
[1:21] what's going to happen to stocks? People
[1:22] would say probably would rally because
[1:24] you would think that all of these asset
[1:26] prices are going to go up because
[1:28] there's going to be inflation to fund
[1:29] the war, going to be the dollar, and
[1:31] because of all of that
[1:33] you're going to see especially defense
[1:35] stocks, energy, etc. The second thing is
[1:37] you would expect oil to go up. The third
[1:39] thing is that you would expect bonds
[1:41] in terms of yields and all that. And
[1:44] then the fourth is Bitcoin would go
[1:45] down, kind of a risk type asset. Well,
[1:47] guess what happened? Exactly the
[1:49] opposite of all of that. Stocks and
[1:51] bonds went down, gold went down, oil
[1:54] went up, which you would have expected,
[1:56] and Bitcoin went up, which you not have
[1:57] expected. And so, when I look at that,
[1:59] it says to me that uh one, you can't
[2:01] look at history always as a guide for
[2:03] what's going to happen in the future.
[2:04] But two, is that Bitcoin has
[2:06] transcended. It has officially broken
[2:09] its correlation to all of the tech
[2:12] stocks, etc. Now, can it hold that
[2:14] broken correlation? Remains to be seen.
[2:16] But I say it has transcended because
[2:18] Bitcoin basically has a couple of
[2:20] different ways to look at it. It is a
[2:22] digital asset. There's some people who
[2:23] like the fact that it's digital and not
[2:25] analog or electronic. It is
[2:27] decentralized. Some people like the fact
[2:29] that it's not controlled by anyone. It
[2:30] is non-sovereign.
[2:32] Some people like the fact that it's
[2:33] outside of their government and no other
[2:35] government controls it. And it is
[2:37] neutral. And I think that's what we're
[2:39] seeing now is people are saying, wait a
[2:40] second, a neutral, non-sovereign,
[2:42] digital, decentralized asset has value
[2:45] in the world. And a big part of this is,
[2:48] yeah, sure, Iran allegedly wants to get
[2:51] paid in Bitcoin, blah blah blah,
[2:52] whatever.
[2:53] Forget all that for a second.
[2:55] If you need, right now, to move money
[2:58] around the world during conflict,
[3:01] well, you can't even move a barrel of
[3:02] oil around the world in some places
[3:04] because there's a blockade.
[3:06] Gold is pretty heavy.
[3:08] Now, you start to say to yourself, wait
[3:09] a second, what if I need a digital store
[3:12] of value?
[3:14] Bitcoin becomes interesting. Now, what I
[3:15] do think is interesting is that Bitcoin
[3:17] is still sold off. So, we can claim
[3:19] victory since February 20th to now and
[3:21] be like, oh, look how great we are.
[3:22] Okay, that's fine. Bitcoin's still down.
[3:24] It was $126,000, it's down to 75,000.
[3:26] I'm not a mathematician, but that's
[3:28] about $50,000
[3:29] of loss from the all-time high. And so,
[3:33] from that perspective, you say, okay,
[3:34] well, why is it that Bitcoin is still
[3:36] down 11% year to date or down, you know,
[3:38] $50,000 from its all-time high? I
[3:40] believe that a huge part of this is
[3:42] because of deflation. And there's plenty
[3:45] of people who disagree with me. Everyone
[3:46] says higher, you know, gas prices are
[3:48] going to lead to inflation, yada yada,
[3:49] whatever. I do not believe that the
[3:51] short-term impact on oil is going to be
[3:54] nearly as important as the four macro
[3:56] deflationary trends that are swallowing
[3:57] the US economy. Tariffs are
[3:59] deflationary. Deportations are
[4:01] deflationary. AI is deflationary. And
[4:03] robotics are deflationary. And I think
[4:05] those four forces are much, much bigger
[4:07] deal than the short-term spike in oil.
[4:09] And as we saw, we announced that, oh,
[4:11] there was a ceasefire, immediately oil
[4:13] drops. Now, there's a blockade, there's
[4:15] all the volatility coming back, prices
[4:16] going higher, all this stuff. But if we
[4:18] get to a culmination and a end, like an
[4:21] actual end to the Iran war, and the
[4:24] strait opens up, oil's going to fall off
[4:26] a cliff. A barrel of oil is somewhere
[4:28] around 50 to 60 bucks if there is no
[4:32] funky business going on in the world.
[4:34] Okay, well, if it's trading at 100, that
[4:36] means it could drop 50%.
[4:38] So, you say to yourself, a lot of the
[4:40] current price increase in oil is due to
[4:43] these artificial
[4:45] external shocks to oil. Well, that then
[4:48] trickles through to gas prices being
[4:49] higher. And if all of a sudden you
[4:52] remove those external shocks, sure, is
[4:54] it going to come right back down on a
[4:55] single day? Probably not. But we saw it
[4:58] drop down to 80 bucks a barrel as soon
[5:00] as ceasefire. Well, what if we actually
[5:03] announce a peace deal and it becomes
[5:06] known in the market we are not no longer
[5:09] bombing Iran?
[5:10] I think that you're going to see oil
[5:12] come down. I think you're going to see
[5:13] stocks rip higher. Stocks are back
[5:15] already green on the year.
[5:17] So, I mean, imagine being a panicking.
[5:19] What I mean, that's just like a loser
[5:20] life. Right? Just Just think about how
[5:22] crazy that is. Every time you get a
[5:25] sniff that there could be some sort of
[5:28] bad situation coming, you immediately
[5:30] panic. That's what a panicking is for
[5:31] those that don't know. You just panic
[5:33] all the time.
[5:33] >> Emotional investor. Yeah, not even
[5:35] emotional. You You just You don't have
[5:37] brain cells. Right? Terrorists are
[5:40] coming. Oh my god, the world's going to
[5:41] end. The shelves are going to be empty.
[5:42] Inflation's going to be high. THE GREAT
[5:43] DEPRESSION.
[5:45] REMEMBER HOW CRAZY EVERYONE WAS?
[5:48] DO YOU remember what I was saying in
[5:50] April of last year? We would be back to
[5:52] an all-time high stock price by the end
[5:53] of the year.
[5:54] We were back by like August.
[5:56] Why? Cuz all noise. It is all noise. It
[5:59] is an overreaction from the mainstream
[6:01] media and from investors who have an
[6:03] academic view of the world. Okay, guess
[6:06] what I've been saying this entire time.
[6:07] Short-term oil prices and gas prices are
[6:10] all noise.
[6:11] How do I know that? Well, we just got
[6:12] the PPI today. The expectation across
[6:16] Wall Street for PPI, headline PPI, was
[6:19] 4.6%. That's a massive jump.
[6:21] It was 4%.
[6:23] How do you miss that bad and keep your
[6:25] job?
[6:26] How's that possible?
[6:27] Imagine if I, on a daily basis, was so
[6:30] wrong that I would I basically ran
[6:32] around and told everyone, "The world's
[6:33] ending, the world's ending, the world's
[6:35] ending." And then we find out, no, it's
[6:36] only 4%. It'll be revised later on, too.
[6:38] >> By the way, the 4% is higher than it was
[6:41] before. So, it's not that like the
[6:42] direction of travel, which I'm not like
[6:43] they said it was going up and it went
[6:44] down. Right? So, I'm not claiming that,
[6:47] oh, there's no impact. What I'm saying
[6:49] though is consensus was 4.6%, it came in
[6:50] at four.
[6:52] Well, why is that? Hmm.
[6:54] Do you remember 2 weeks ago on April 2nd
[6:56] when I told everyone that Trueflation
[6:59] was telling us that higher gas prices in
[7:01] America were not going to lead to higher
[7:03] inflation at the level that everyone was
[7:05] expecting?
[7:07] If you go back, Trueflation, for those
[7:09] that forget, on the second day of April
[7:11] or or first and second day of April,
[7:13] they basically get updated at the start
[7:15] of each month with a bunch of these data
[7:16] sets. And so, they go and they revise
[7:18] Trueflation. It changes on a day-to-day
[7:20] basis because of the data points, but
[7:21] there's a lot of people who report once
[7:23] a month.
[7:24] Trueflation had gone from 0.8% CPI
[7:27] number up to 1.7%.
[7:30] More than doubled since the Iran war.
[7:33] That's a big deal. Right? So, no one is
[7:34] claiming that inflation was not going
[7:36] higher. Trueflation was saying it,
[7:37] people were saying it, all that.
[7:39] But on April 2nd, when I looked at
[7:42] Trueflation, it went from 1.7 down to
[7:44] 1.2%.
[7:46] Huge revision down. Like abnormal
[7:49] revision down. Why?
[7:51] Well, if you go and you look into the
[7:52] data, there was four major sectors that
[7:54] had negative growth on a
[7:56] month-over-month basis.
[7:58] Food, utilities, transport, and housing.
[8:02] All four sectors, four huge inputs into
[8:04] inflation
[8:06] measurement, were negative. Not like
[8:08] growing slower, they were negative.
[8:10] So, when you look at that, you say to
[8:12] yourself, hold on.
[8:14] Gas is up, of course.
[8:17] But is gas more important than food,
[8:18] utilities, transport,
[8:21] and housing? No.
[8:23] And so, that's how I knew. It's because
[8:25] actually the Trueflation number revised
[8:28] down 2 weeks ago. And so, I continue to
[8:30] tell people, Trueflation is the most
[8:32] accurate measurement of inflation in the
[8:33] United States. It has a 98% correlation
[8:37] to CPI, not PPI, but CPI.
[8:40] It's just that CPI has a 1-month lag.
[8:42] So, if you look at what Trueflation
[8:44] tells you,
[8:45] a month later, that's what CPI's going
[8:46] to tell you.
[8:47] This is easy. This is like I'm not a
[8:49] smart person. I'm just merely looking at
[8:51] the data and saying, okay, well, this
[8:53] one tells me it's going not going to be
[8:55] that bad, then this one's going to tell
[8:57] me that a month later. Why don't I just
[8:58] look at the one that is fresh, the one
[9:00] that's real time? So,
[9:02] to me, that's the whole story here. Is
[9:03] everyone
[9:05] constantly promising us, oh my god,
[9:07] inflation's coming, inflation's coming.
[9:08] Everyone's brain broke during COVID
[9:11] because everyone thought inflation's
[9:13] always going to come back. Like, no,
[9:15] actually the lesson from COVID is how
[9:17] insane that situation was.
[9:20] Um we literally are bombing Iran, we put
[9:23] a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz,
[9:25] oil has gone up over $100 a barrel, gas
[9:27] is $4 in America, and we don't have high
[9:30] inflation.
[9:31] So, the fact that we had over 9%
[9:33] inflation, according to the CPI, tells
[9:36] you everything you need to know about
[9:38] how insane and outlier event that was.
[9:42] But outlier events are outliers. They
[9:44] don't constantly repeat themselves over
[9:46] and over and over again. And so, from
[9:47] that perspective, I think that there's
[9:49] this, you know, kind of like mental
[9:51] psychosis that is happening in finance
[9:54] where it's It's like people want there
[9:56] to be bad things going on.
[9:57] And maybe some of it's like the Trump
[9:59] derangement syndrome stuff, but I think
[10:00] there was plenty of these people around
[10:01] when Biden was president. Right? So, I
[10:03] don't actually think it's like as
[10:04] political maybe as people want it to be.
[10:06] I just think there's a bunch of people
[10:07] who
[10:09] they have equal access to a megaphone
[10:10] now. You can get on social media, you
[10:12] can say whatever you want. And guess
[10:14] what? Pessimists, they are able to
[10:15] attract an audience cuz they sound
[10:16] smart.
[10:17] But show us your returns. How many times
[10:19] you've been right? Right? If you were
[10:21] predicting the next great recession, you
[10:22] sold your stocks on February 28th
[10:26] or on March 1st
[10:28] and you were waiting for the 25% drop in
[10:31] the stock market that you claimed was
[10:32] coming.
[10:34] When did you buy back in? When did you
[10:35] wave the white flag? When did you give
[10:37] up? Cry uncle.
[10:39] Cuz you definitely didn't get a 25% drop
[10:41] in the stock market. And so, it just
[10:43] goes back to
[10:45] I could make the argument that the stock
[10:46] market is having one of its best years
[10:48] ever so far. Why? The intra-year
[10:51] drawdown average
[10:53] average across years, the intra-year
[10:55] drawdown is 14%.
[10:57] We didn't get 14% down the S&P.
[11:01] So, we're doing better than average year
[11:02] so far. Year's not over. Year's not
[11:04] over, of course. I mean, look, could we
[11:05] get another huge drawdown? Sure. But
[11:07] like, I don't know, whatever the S&P
[11:09] ended up going down 9 10%? Didn't go
[11:11] down 14.
[11:12] And we're back to positive.
[11:15] So, if I told you the start of the year,
[11:16] all right, here's the deal. Ready?
[11:19] We're going go, we're going to get the
[11:20] Panama Canal stuff going.
[11:22] We're going to go put a bag over
[11:23] Maduro's head. We're use the
[11:24] discombobulator.
[11:26] Then Trump's going really get on one.
[11:28] Think he's got the hot hand. He's going
[11:29] to go start bombing Iran.
[11:32] We're going to have them firing off
[11:34] drones and rockets and missiles and
[11:36] stuff all over the Middle East, hitting
[11:37] random countries and civilians and uh
[11:40] energy depots and all this stuff.
[11:43] Then
[11:44] we're going to announce a ceasefire and
[11:46] then we're going to go to negotiations
[11:47] and not get the ceasefire. Oh, by the
[11:49] way, Russia-Ukraine still happening.
[11:52] By the way, China is over there trying
[11:56] to figure out what they're going to do
[11:57] because they're actually under a lot of
[11:58] pain right now. That's why they want
[12:00] Iran to settle this so they can start
[12:02] getting oil again.
[12:04] Oh, did you know that the United States
[12:07] has gone and bombed Ecuador?
[12:10] Ooh, that's going on.
[12:12] Let's have that conversation.
[12:13] We literally are doing so many things in
[12:15] the Western Hemisphere that most people
[12:16] don't even know that stuff is true.
[12:18] In Ecuador, over the last, I don't know,
[12:20] 8 weeks, we have bombed narco-terrorist
[12:23] organizations.
[12:25] A lot of you don't know that we dropped
[12:26] a bomb there. Right or or a missile or a
[12:27] strike, whatever you want to call it.
[12:29] So, if I told you all that was going on
[12:32] and I told you the S&P was positive,
[12:33] would you have believed me?
[12:35] Probably not.
[12:36] If I told you that Bitcoin was one of
[12:37] the best performing assets
[12:40] during
[12:41] the conflict with Iran
[12:43] most people probably wouldn't have
[12:43] believed that. Right? So, it just goes
[12:46] back to listen.
[12:48] Think long-term.
[12:49] It's all noise.
[12:50] The best performing people just have a
[12:52] thesis that is going to last decades.
[12:54] They stay disciplined.
[12:56] You can be intellectually stimulated by
[12:57] the public conversation. But just like
[12:59] don't don't make emotional decisions off
[13:01] of Today's episode is brought to you by
[13:02] Consensus Miami. I'm going to be
[13:04] speaking there on the main stage in a
[13:06] couple of weeks. This is the event the
[13:08] entire industry shows up for. Wall
[13:10] Street, the White House, all of crypto
[13:12] and Web3. This May 5th through May 7th,
[13:15] you can discover everything from crypto
[13:16] at scale to institutional integration
[13:19] and agentic commerce. It's the forces
[13:21] driving trillions on chain and reshaping
[13:23] global finance.
[13:25] 20,000 decision makers are going to be
[13:26] in attendance. Three action-packed days.
[13:29] Deals get signed here, funds get raised
[13:31] here, and the next cycle starts here as
[13:33] well. You can't afford to miss it. I'll
[13:35] be there speaking and you can use the
[13:37] code POMPLIANO to get 25% off your pass
[13:40] and join me there. Go in the description
[13:42] and look how to spell my name and use
[13:44] code POMPLIANO to get 25% off your pass
[13:47] to join me there.
[13:49] Today's episode is brought to you by
[13:51] Arch Public. I absolutely love these
[13:52] guys. Arch Public is an agentic trading
[13:55] platform that automates the buying and
[13:56] selling of your preferred crypto
[13:57] strategies. Using sophisticated
[13:59] algorithms like the intelligence,
[14:01] arbitrage, and oracle protocols, Arch
[14:03] Public executes advanced automated
[14:05] crypto strategies fully customized to
[14:07] your goals. Is your aim to accumulate
[14:09] Bitcoin during market dips, generate
[14:11] profits from Ethereum volatility, or
[14:13] sell Solana or XRP in layers as it
[14:15] reclaims all-time highs? If so, Arch
[14:18] Public is built for you. Are you worried
[14:20] about doing it alone? No problem. Arch
[14:22] Public provides everyone, yes, everyone,
[14:25] with hands-on dedicated support from
[14:27] their concierge team to help implement
[14:29] the strategy that you choose. As a
[14:31] preferred trading partner of Coinbase,
[14:33] Kraken, Robinhood, and Gemini, Arch
[14:35] Public offers a proven track record of
[14:36] security and performance so that you can
[14:39] trade with confidence. Sign up today at
[14:41] archpublic.com
[14:42] and start your automated trading
[14:44] strategy for free. No catch, no hidden
[14:46] fees, just smarter trading. Your crypto,
[14:49] your exchange, your profits. Arch
[14:51] Public. Go to archpublic.com
[14:54] and tell them I sent you.
[14:56] People care about returns. Uh what do
[14:57] you expect leading into the rest of this
[14:59] year? It seems like, you know, there's
[15:01] been a um a little bit of flip-flopping
[15:03] from inflation to deflation to kind of
[15:05] where where's this stuff going and how
[15:06] do you see as assets reacting to Higher.
[15:10] Higher. Why do you think that? You
[15:12] didn't even ask me what asset, just
[15:13] higher.
[15:14] Bitcoin's going higher, gold's going
[15:16] higher, stocks are going higher because
[15:18] ultimately we are going to get asset
[15:20] inflation. See, one of the weird things
[15:22] is um people want us to have a black and
[15:24] white world. So, if I tell you hey,
[15:25] deflation is likely to happen, right? Or
[15:26] it's the bigger risk, then people say,
[15:29] "Okay, well, if there's deflation, then
[15:31] asset prices actually usually go down."
[15:34] Hmm, okay.
[15:36] But then if I tell you
[15:37] but the government is going to be
[15:39] incentivized to print more money
[15:42] and that money
[15:43] is going to find its way into assets cuz
[15:46] now people are convinced I shouldn't
[15:47] hold this cash.
[15:50] I'm not predicting this necessarily, but
[15:52] I think that there are higher odds that
[15:55] we could get asset inflation
[15:57] while consumer inflation does not get
[16:00] out of control.
[16:03] Very nuanced. Could we get asset
[16:05] inflation without high consumer
[16:07] inflation?
[16:07] >> Does the Fed or like who would be the
[16:09] main driver to ensure that that is a
[16:11] path to a possibility? Well, what One
[16:15] way to think about this is could we have
[16:17] a low inflation, high growth economy?
[16:20] It's like a central banker's dream.
[16:22] Right? Is I don't have to juice the
[16:24] economy that much cuz we're getting the
[16:25] high
[16:26] high growth already and inflation is
[16:28] staying, you know, low and manageable.
[16:31] Okay, well, how could we get that?
[16:33] Well,
[16:34] could we drive growth from artificial
[16:36] intelligence, robotics
[16:38] crypto
[16:39] you know, name your space, right? Name
[16:41] all of these
[16:42] kind of innovative technologies
[16:44] at the same time
[16:46] that those technologies are deflationary
[16:48] from a consumer standpoint. 100% we
[16:51] could.
[16:52] And so, guess what is starting to
[16:54] happen? We're seeing that play out.
[16:56] Sharpie, the maker of the your favorite
[16:59] marker
[17:00] they somehow reshored their
[17:01] manufacturing, used robotics. They are
[17:03] paying their employees more money. They
[17:06] didn't fire people and they have better
[17:08] margins.
[17:10] That sounds How's that even possible?
[17:12] Well, it goes back to
[17:14] let's just use a a simple example. If
[17:16] you have a factory and you have 100
[17:18] employees at that factory and those 100
[17:21] people are you're working them to the
[17:23] bone. You need you got to get the work
[17:24] done. There's no robotics, there's no
[17:25] machines, there's no anything. Okay.
[17:27] Well, it let's say that those 100 people
[17:30] can produce
[17:31] I don't know, use easy numbers. They can
[17:33] produce 20 units of your good every
[17:36] single day. All right?
[17:39] If you start to actually introduce
[17:40] machines
[17:42] guess what happens?
[17:44] You first start machines augment the
[17:46] people. So, now those 100 people can
[17:48] produce not 20 units, maybe they can
[17:50] produce 22 or 25 units.
[17:53] Well, your cost in terms of running
[17:56] day-to-day labor is a big input, maybe
[17:58] the biggest input, stay the same. You
[18:00] still have 100 people working there. But
[18:02] now you're producing 25 units instead of
[18:04] 20.
[18:05] Well, if you have healthy margins, then
[18:07] you're likely to make more money.
[18:10] And you know you have healthy margins
[18:11] because the machines are making the same
[18:13] number of people more productive. Now,
[18:15] are there capex expenses and there's
[18:17] nuance, right? But but generally that's
[18:18] the idea.
[18:19] But what we're seeing is, well, what if
[18:21] you don't go from 20 to 25? What if the
[18:24] machines have you go from 20 to 50?
[18:27] Well, now you have more profits.
[18:30] You didn't fire anyone. So, you as a
[18:32] business owner can make more money and
[18:34] pay the employees more money.
[18:36] Because you have more money to work
[18:38] with.
[18:39] And you're more productive. So, what
[18:41] you've done essentially is you've
[18:42] increased or held your profit margin.
[18:45] You've got more profits as business
[18:47] owner and your employees are better
[18:48] paid.
[18:49] You think people want to work at those
[18:50] types of businesses? But why does that
[18:51] happen now? Like technology is it's not
[18:53] something new, right? Uh especially in
[18:55] the logistics
[18:56] >> Yes and no. Yes and no. Right? Um
[18:59] how is it that Elon is able to pump out
[19:02] as many cars as he does?
[19:04] Robotics.
[19:05] Right? So, you look at it like Sharpie's
[19:08] a good example. That that is pretty much
[19:10] a story of Sharpie is they invested in
[19:12] technology and they were able to do
[19:14] this. Right? And it didn't have a
[19:16] negative impact on employees. See, one
[19:18] of the things that I've changed my mind
[19:20] on is one one of the things I've changed
[19:22] my mind on is the impact of artificial
[19:24] intelligence on jobs. Are there a lot of
[19:26] people who are going to have to retrain
[19:28] themselves and get new jobs? 100%. But
[19:30] there will be more jobs in the economy,
[19:31] not less. What do I mean by that? Well,
[19:33] let's look at software engineers as an
[19:35] example. Basically, AI came out and we
[19:37] saw software job openings crater.
[19:40] Well, guess what?
[19:41] Now they're up and they're growing
[19:43] rapidly. There's more job openings today
[19:45] than there was when ChatGPT came out.
[19:47] Why is that? Well, if I can take this
[19:50] technology and I can hand it to an
[19:51] engineer and that engineer is now more
[19:53] productive, as a business owner I'm
[19:54] incentivized. How do I get as many of
[19:56] these people here as possible so that I
[19:57] can make them more productive so I can
[19:58] grow faster and accelerate and drive
[20:00] more profits and become more valuable.
[20:02] So, in a weird way, what we're doing is
[20:04] we're actually opening up the pool for a
[20:06] company and we're saying, "Look, for
[20:07] every dollar you invest in talent,
[20:11] you're actually getting more units of
[20:12] productivity from that dollar invested.
[20:15] So, you're incentivized to invest more,
[20:17] not less." And so, I think that the AI
[20:21] job loss narrative is real in certain
[20:23] industries, but Pro Cap Insights, the
[20:26] the research firm
[20:27] that we recently announced, what they're
[20:30] doing is they're using artificial
[20:31] intelligence to sift through mountains
[20:32] of data, find these insights, and then
[20:34] AI is actually writing the report. So,
[20:36] it's the first
[20:37] agentic research firm on Wall Street
[20:39] that we're aware of. Full bore AI writes
[20:42] the whole thing.
[20:44] One of those reports talks about the
[20:46] fact that actually
[20:48] there's a lot of job loss for people
[20:50] between the ages of like 22 and like 28.
[20:54] But there is job increase, job growth
[20:56] for people over the age of 30.
[20:58] And so, if you want to read that report,
[20:59] you can go to procapinsights.com.
[21:01] But in that report, you know what I took
[21:03] away from that?
[21:04] Experience just became more valuable.
[21:07] So, now it is not only, "Hey, do you now
[21:09] understand the technology?" but do you
[21:10] have experience? And so, if you put this
[21:13] stuff together, you realize like
[21:14] artificial intelligence is going to be a
[21:15] productivity boom.
[21:17] But there is going to be deflation
[21:19] because the cost structure changes, but
[21:22] just because cost structure changes
[21:23] doesn't mean all of a sudden companies
[21:24] stop growing. Actually, the opposite.
[21:25] They accelerate. You know, one of the
[21:27] industries I'm very interested in data
[21:29] labeling,
[21:30] I know, I don't know, I could probably
[21:31] rattle off eight or nine companies that
[21:33] either started going after this or were
[21:35] like defunct bad companies. There's a
[21:37] company called Handshake. I don't I
[21:38] don't know if you know this. So, there's
[21:39] a company called Handshake. They've been
[21:40] around for 12 or 13 years. It was going
[21:43] like okay. I think last January they did
[21:46] like a million dollars of revenue or
[21:48] something. Like they were on pace to do
[21:49] a million dollars of revenue.
[21:51] Then a couple of months later they were
[21:53] 5 million. I think they ended last year
[21:55] doing like a hundred.
[21:57] Then a hundred million in ARR. Then
[22:01] they're up to I think 500 million like a
[22:04] month or two ago. And now I think
[22:06] they're doing a billion.
[22:08] Or something like that. Like whatever it
[22:09] is. It's some crazy ramp, right?
[22:11] They're helping people do data labeling.
[22:13] LinkedIn
[22:14] is now offering a hundred fifty dollars
[22:16] an hour
[22:17] for people to label data in different
[22:19] sectors. So, if you think about that for
[22:21] a second, like, "Okay, so let's say that
[22:23] you are, I don't know, an accountant."
[22:25] And or let's even go less kind of
[22:27] professional training and and licensing.
[22:29] Let's just say that you are
[22:31] um
[22:32] the front desk receptionist at a medical
[22:37] facility. And you've spent most of your
[22:40] time, you know, answering calls, emails,
[22:42] greeting people, but also on the side
[22:44] you've been having to categorize and
[22:46] organize pharmaceutical drugs maybe,
[22:48] right?
[22:50] There's increasing odds that a place,
[22:53] whether it is a LinkedIn or some other
[22:54] service, will pay you to do the exact
[22:57] same thing, but label data so that the
[22:59] machines can learn how to do that.
[23:01] And they'll pay you 150 to 200 bucks an
[23:03] hour. So, if you lose your job because
[23:05] all of a sudden, you know, your boss
[23:07] becomes some genius who wants to put
[23:08] like a computer screen there and he's
[23:10] going to have somebody in the
[23:10] Philippines, you know, answer the calls
[23:12] or whatever or he's going to have
[23:13] somebody, you know, greet them on a on a
[23:15] computer screen.
[23:17] In a weird way, if you can reposition
[23:20] yourself and use the knowledge you have
[23:21] in data labeling, you actually may make
[23:24] more money.
[23:25] I'm not saying that's everybody. I'm not
[23:26] saying it's easy. I'm not saying that
[23:27] it's likely, but I think those are the
[23:29] types of opportunities now people are
[23:30] starting to realize is you can use the
[23:33] knowledge you have, again, the
[23:34] experience, and you can apply it to
[23:36] these new industries. And so, I think
[23:37] that there's a lot of folks who are
[23:39] saying to themselves, "Why am I doing
[23:40] the thing I'm doing? Why don't I take
[23:42] the knowledge and apply it to this new
[23:43] industry? And if I do that right, I can
[23:45] make more money, maybe work less,
[23:48] and end up in a much better position."
[23:50] And so, I think that's pretty exciting.
[23:51] Yeah, I didn't know this conversation
[23:52] was going to go this way, but it's an
[23:54] interesting topic on the idea of one,
[23:55] the experience side is, you know,
[23:58] if you have instead of a pool of 10
[23:59] entry-level employees, you have five.
[24:01] Obviously, you know, some employees
[24:02] leave over the years, but you just have
[24:04] a smaller pool to pick from on the
[24:05] executive side of things.
[24:07] That's one thing, but the second thing
[24:08] is I feel like a lot of people when they
[24:11] are, you know, "Hey, I'm data labeling."
[24:13] they feel like they're training the AI
[24:15] to take their job almost. How do you How
[24:18] should people think about the difference
[24:20] between, "Hey, I am helping to increase
[24:23] productivity in my company, but I'm also
[24:25] maybe replacing, you know, work that I
[24:27] will have to do in the future, and there
[24:28] is no guarantee that there is, you know,
[24:30] other work for me to go do and and be
[24:32] productive elsewhere?" The number one
[24:33] thing you can do inside of a company to
[24:34] have job security right now is become
[24:36] the AI guy or the AI girl. If you
[24:38] understand AI, if you understand how to
[24:40] implement it, you are not going to lose
[24:42] your job.
[24:43] These companies are going to ask you,
[24:44] "Can you do this?" You do it. They're
[24:46] going to say, "Okay, that's great.
[24:47] Here's more responsibility. Here's more
[24:48] responsibility." And it is a
[24:50] you know, there's a difference between
[24:51] elevators and stairs. You know, people
[24:53] usually say that
[24:54] you take the stairs up and the elevator
[24:56] down.
[24:57] Not if you know AI in a corporation. You
[24:59] take the elevator up, baby, right?
[25:01] Because as soon as you become known as
[25:03] the AI guy or the AI girl, you up. And I
[25:07] think that that's going to be a
[25:08] a huge thing. And you got to show
[25:09] results, right? But but that that's big.
[25:11] And look, this all comes back to Bitcoin
[25:13] as well, right? I think a lot of folks
[25:14] are saying to themselves, "Okay, well
[25:16] Bitcoin has this really weird
[25:17] relationship, very sensitive
[25:18] relationship to global liquidity. Right?
[25:20] Like the US government's national debt,
[25:22] it continues to skyrocket.
[25:24] Bitcoin is going to recover.
[25:26] On top of that,
[25:28] in a world of abundance, scarcity
[25:30] becomes very valuable.
[25:31] And so, what is more scarce than
[25:33] Bitcoin?
[25:34] Not a lot. And especially when you have
[25:36] Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Fidelity, all
[25:38] these guys coming in with the ETFs, you
[25:40] have Michael Saylor and Strategy buying
[25:41] up as much Bitcoin as they possibly can.
[25:43] Like Bitcoin is going to do very well
[25:45] over the next decade. I think a lot of
[25:47] people have been convinced otherwise.
[25:49] And in a weird way, those who stay
[25:51] focused and and understand the power of
[25:53] Bitcoin, the value of Bitcoin, I think
[25:54] will be rewarded over long period of
[25:55] time. Morgan Stanley, good point. They
[25:58] just launched their ETF, most successful
[26:00] launch for them ever in the ETF space.
[26:02] How do you think about a lot of these
[26:03] players? Are they just They're looking
[26:05] to make transaction fees, looking to
[26:06] make, you know, custody fees, etc. or is
[26:08] there something else that they that
[26:09] they're thinking about like more
[26:10] long-term? There's a war going on on
[26:12] Wall Street, and they all competing over
[26:14] who can get more assets into their ETF,
[26:16] and I love it. This is why America is
[26:18] great, right? Is if you look at
[26:21] what has happened, is BlackRock came
[26:23] out, they broke the seal, they had a
[26:25] banger of a fund, right? I mean, they
[26:27] most successful product launch in the
[26:29] history of Wall Street. Kudos to Robbie,
[26:32] Larry Fink, all those guys over at
[26:34] BlackRock, right? They don't get nearly
[26:35] enough credit for what they did.
[26:37] Fidelity, right there alongside them.
[26:40] Then you get the Bitwises, you get the
[26:41] VanEcks, you get the 21 Shares, the ARK
[26:44] Invest, right? We just rattle off fund
[26:46] after fund after fund after fund. Okay?
[26:49] Morgan Stanley wasn't playing.
[26:51] Now, I got a story for you. I went and
[26:53] saw Morgan Stanley, I think in 2018. Me
[26:56] and Mark Yusko. Went in and said, "Hey,
[26:58] we got this fund, this is a venture
[26:59] capital fund, this Bitcoin thing. Would
[27:01] you guys consider putting this on your
[27:02] platform?" And I'll never forget. Two
[27:05] older people in the room, two younger
[27:07] people in the room.
[27:08] The two older people in the room, they
[27:10] might as might as well been snoozing.
[27:12] They were like, "Mhm, you guys are
[27:13] idiots, right?"
[27:15] One of the younger uh people was a guy,
[27:18] and he was, "Yo, this is This is going
[27:20] to fly. This is like He was like, "Hey,
[27:21] hey, hey, let me get your email.
[27:23] Let's talk, right? Like this thing I'm
[27:24] buying, right? You know, like I'm in the
[27:26] Bitcoin."
[27:30] And then uh there was a woman who was
[27:31] probably like mid to late 20s, if I
[27:33] remember correctly, and
[27:35] um she was kind of agnostic. She was
[27:36] like, "Well, I don't think that the old
[27:37] guys are right, and I think this guy's a
[27:39] little too enthusiastic." So, like she
[27:41] was kind of in the middle. And I think
[27:43] that that was pretty eye-opening because
[27:45] that was probably where most people
[27:46] were, right? Was like there was this
[27:48] stratification of some people really
[27:50] excited, a lot of people were not, and
[27:52] they were not interested in putting the
[27:53] fund on their platform, but they said,
[27:54] "You know, we'll keep following along,
[27:55] whatever."
[27:57] Now they're offering funds.
[27:59] But look, it took eight years, right?
[28:01] Amy, who's the head of digital assets at
[28:03] Morgan Stanley, went on Bloomberg, and
[28:04] she said it's the best launch they've
[28:05] ever had at Morgan Stanley.
[28:07] You telling me that every bank on Wall
[28:09] Street, every asset manager on Wall
[28:10] Street is not paying attention?
[28:11] BlackRock now just announced they're
[28:13] going to do an income Bitcoin fund.
[28:15] You You telling me they ain't going to
[28:16] go deeper? They're not going to try to
[28:18] get more assets?
[28:19] It's game on. And so, Wall Street's
[28:21] here, Wall Street's going to keep
[28:22] feeding the ducks. They're going to keep
[28:23] coming out with products as long as
[28:25] people keep investing in them, and I
[28:26] think it's only going to get bigger from
[28:27] here, and that's going to be a
[28:28] persistent bid for Bitcoin over time.
[28:30] Awesome. All right, thank you. All
[28:32] right, guys, thank you so much. Go check
[28:33] out procapinsights.com. We'll see you
[28:34] guys next time.