¡Se acerca la volatilidad! Así puedes sacar partido

[0:00] as you see and I'll add one more thing
[0:02] um as it pertains to kind of how
[0:04] important crypto is in the equation of
[0:06] this expansion of markets and in the
[0:08] inflation of dollars. You know,
[0:10] traditionally money flows from the
[0:12] printing press through the banks to the
[0:14] people. Well, what are the banks all
[0:17] doing right now? They're investing in
[0:18] this infrastructure. So crypto is going
[0:21] to be whether humans are using it or
[0:24] not, the most widely used exchange of
[0:28] value in the new age of 24/7 markets and
[0:31] kind of the tokenization of all assets.
[0:34] What's going on guys? Today we got a
[0:35] great conversation with Andrew Parish
[0:37] and Tilman Holloway of Arch Public.
[0:39] These guys simply get it. They
[0:40] understand what's happening in the macro
[0:41] environment. They see all of the
[0:43] debasement of the dollar. They believe
[0:45] that volatility is going to become much
[0:47] worse in the future. and they've built
[0:48] some software that's actually able to
[0:50] help people capitalize on the
[0:51] volatility. I always enjoy talking to
[0:53] them. They're downto-earth dudes who are
[0:55] intelligent and they're actually doing
[0:56] stuff in the market. They're getting
[0:57] feedback from real users and they
[0:59] understand what happens when you take
[1:01] ideas and it meets reality. Here's my
[1:03] latest conversation with the guys at
[1:05] Arch Public. Tomman, let's start with
[1:06] you. I think there's this huge
[1:08] controversy right now where lots of
[1:10] people are very upset at the US
[1:11] government for undisiplined spending.
[1:13] There's a lot of waste going on. They
[1:15] look around the local communities and
[1:16] they feel like I'm getting taxed more
[1:18] but I'm getting less services and
[1:20] there's a general unhappiness. At the
[1:22] same time, there is this absolute need
[1:24] for more investment and more dollars in
[1:26] the system as we try to build out the
[1:28] infrastructure for this brand new era of
[1:31] AI. You've talked about that maybe
[1:33] there's some national security
[1:34] implications to this. Can you just walk
[1:36] us through kind of your analysis as to
[1:38] like where have we been, what's
[1:40] changing, and why is it so important to
[1:42] national security?
[1:44] Uh yeah, I think if you talk about
[1:46] infrastructure as a whole, uh it's
[1:49] always what drives economic growth, uh
[1:52] whether it be the federal highway system
[1:54] or the internet. Uh this new set of
[1:59] rails, this new global infrastructure,
[2:01] if you will, that allows everything to
[2:03] be tokenized and allows trading to
[2:06] happen 24/7 and how and allows for
[2:09] real-time settlement to take place. uh
[2:11] that's changing the way that markets
[2:13] work at a foundational level. And so
[2:16] what does that mean? It well it means
[2:18] that there's going to be more markets.
[2:20] Um I think that recently they talked
[2:22] about even derivatives of stocks
[2:26] themselves don't have to come from the
[2:29] issuer. So you're talking about um
[2:33] essentially an infinite number of
[2:35] markets that can be created and they'll
[2:36] all be judged on the back of the trust
[2:38] of the issuer andor on the the the
[2:41] proven deposits or the reserves that are
[2:44] back the issuance. uh what we see in
[2:47] that is we see the expansion of markets
[2:49] and what what has to take place beyond
[2:52] that is that liquidity has to come into
[2:54] those markets for them to function and
[2:57] so the need to print money is going to
[3:00] be even more greater than we've ever
[3:04] seen. the expansion of the markets and
[3:06] what's going to take place in the next
[3:08] 10 years and the participation that it's
[3:11] going to drive will will drive more
[3:14] demand for more dollars. Um, and so that
[3:16] gives the United States government a
[3:19] reason to print money uh without
[3:22] undermining the the foundational trust
[3:25] that that is behind the dollar. And it
[3:28] won't be, you know, being forced down
[3:30] the world's throat through just military
[3:32] might, but it'll be through the
[3:34] interconnectivity of markets and through
[3:36] global expansion and the participation
[3:38] therein.
[3:40] That's the healthy way to uh grow into
[3:43] the inflation that uh essentially that
[3:45] we have as a country is to to innovate
[3:48] and to bring that innovation to the
[3:50] world stage and to bring more
[3:52] participants into that innovation so
[3:54] that the dollar is the the backbone of
[3:56] that innovation and then continues to be
[3:58] the dominant u place of exchange. And we
[4:01] we we already have such a head start and
[4:04] we already have the greatest minds from
[4:06] a technological perspective. And if you
[4:08] look at just the I was out in Arizona
[4:11] and I went and looked at a data center
[4:14] um that is a semiconductor chip
[4:17] manufacturing facility that's a
[4:18] Taiwanese company joint partnership
[4:21] built in the US. I don't want to
[4:23] misquote this but I think it's 29
[4:25] million square ft under roof has its own
[4:27] power treatment plant has its own
[4:30] electrical grid has its own electrical
[4:33] uh production plant. uh the most
[4:36] state-of-the-art facility that I've ever
[4:39] seen in my entire life. And you know, if
[4:42] you see it with your eyes, you go, "A
[4:44] ha, that's part of the future." It's
[4:46] that evident to you at face value. And
[4:48] so you say, okay, well, if we are going
[4:51] to invest in the future, we're going to
[4:54] need to build things that up until this
[4:56] point have only been kind of conceived
[4:58] through sci-fi uh imagination like the
[5:01] Death Star, something of that magnitude.
[5:04] You know, Elon Musk is is talking about
[5:07] those types of things. And in order to
[5:09] generate the type of power that's needed
[5:12] to to take the leadership of
[5:16] semiconductor chip manufacturing, all of
[5:18] the hardware that's needed to expand AI
[5:21] function functionality and capability,
[5:24] you just know how much how important
[5:26] energy and uh rare earth metals and the
[5:30] production of these um you know
[5:32] computers are to the you know to to the
[5:34] US but really to the entire world and
[5:36] the global markets. Now when you see
[5:38] that Andrew, you know, obviously this is
[5:39] a national security issue. Yes, there's
[5:41] going to be more dollars in the system.
[5:43] I guess the question really just becomes
[5:45] like what is crypto's role there? Do you
[5:47] guys think of it as stable coins or
[5:49] ending up driving dollar dominance and
[5:51] that's really where a lot of the value
[5:52] gets created? Is it no Bitcoin is this
[5:54] asset that is going to actually convert
[5:56] dollars into digital gold and people are
[5:58] going to store their value to insulate
[6:01] themselves from dollar to basement? like
[6:02] how do you kind of think of the the
[6:04] impact to crypto based on what uh Tommy
[6:07] was just saying?
[6:08] >> Well, I think the impact to crypto is,
[6:11] you know, trying to do a really good job
[6:12] of following the leader and the leader
[6:15] is the likes of Black Rockck and Morgan
[6:17] Stanley. They can't stop talking about
[6:19] tokenization, took tokenization,
[6:22] tokenization. That that's all they're
[6:24] talking about. And what that means is
[6:27] they see liquidity, they see
[6:29] opportunity, they see increased revenue
[6:31] with 247 markets, and that can only
[6:34] happen based on tokenization. I kind of
[6:36] liken it to the the broadening and the
[6:40] depth of the markets that change. Now
[6:42] the end result was not ideal but the
[6:45] change in markets from let's call it
[6:47] 2000 to 2020ish
[6:50] um where you had meaningful leverage uh
[6:54] come into the markets associated with
[6:55] debt meaningful leverage across almost
[6:58] nearly every asset class. Well that got
[7:01] wiped out in the great financial crisis.
[7:03] But we've gotten to a point now where
[7:06] the the the entire pie needs to grow
[7:08] again. And uh whether good or bad,
[7:11] tokenization is going to meaningfully
[7:13] grow that pie. And you're going to now
[7:16] turn on the switch. So instead of
[7:18] markets being open for, let's call it 7
[7:20] hours a day, they're going to be open
[7:21] for 24 hours a day. So the pie has to
[7:24] grow. It has to get thicker, wider, the
[7:28] whole thing um for everyone to
[7:30] participate. And they're going to want
[7:33] everyone to participate. And so
[7:35] liquidity is going to be something that
[7:37] will be very very meaningful to watch.
[7:39] Well, where does liquidity ultimately
[7:40] come from? It ultimately comes from the
[7:43] printing of money. So obviously crypto
[7:46] is going to be uniquely connected to
[7:49] tokenization uh cuz tokenizing of
[7:52] equities and any type of asset is
[7:54] inherently crypto. Correct.
[7:57] And now when you guys take a look at
[7:59] this, the big thing around volatility
[8:01] being introduced into the system feels
[8:03] like the inevitable. And you see this
[8:05] today, right? If we go back, we had the
[8:06] tariff scare last year. Then we had the
[8:09] Iran war this year. Then we had
[8:11] inflation concerns. Then we even had,
[8:13] you know, people forget Maduro got
[8:14] captured earlier this year. That's like
[8:16] a afterthought. You know, we all have
[8:18] amnesia over that. There was the
[8:20] deepseek moment. There was the software
[8:22] selloff, the SAS apocalypse, right? I
[8:24] mean, all of that has happened in less
[8:25] than 18 months. We can name, you know,
[8:28] fear after fear after fear, and the
[8:29] market has been gyrating,
[8:31] >> but stocks are at all-time highs.
[8:32] Bitcoin went from 125,000 down to 60
[8:36] back to 80. And it's just like all over
[8:37] the place. And so, how are you guys
[8:39] thinking about investors and users of
[8:41] your product navigating so much
[8:42] volatility?
[8:44] By the way, in in in inside of
[8:47] everything we just talked about, uh,
[8:49] broader markets hit all-time highs and
[8:52] money market accounts went to all-time
[8:54] highs. So, we're at like $8.5 trillion
[8:58] in cash sitting in money market accounts
[9:00] now and markets are at all-time highs.
[9:04] That's completely unprecedented. So, if
[9:06] you think about that, if you've got all
[9:08] these potential, you know, meaningful
[9:11] things that could turn markets upside
[9:13] down, one, they didn't turn markets
[9:15] upside down, and two, somehow were more
[9:18] invested, markets are higher, and
[9:21] there's more cash on the sidelines.
[9:22] That's extraordinary. That reality is
[9:24] extraordinary.
[9:26] >> I think it's a product of the
[9:28] information age that we live in and how
[9:31] quickly information flows. And um you
[9:34] know humans are addicted to emotion. We
[9:37] love emotion. And you know that's why
[9:40] you know WWF or WWE is a thing even
[9:44] though we all know it's fake, right? It
[9:46] it drives emotion. That's why soap
[9:48] operas are a thing. That's why romantic
[9:50] novels. Emotion is a powerful thing and
[9:52] and humans like emotion. And so as long
[9:56] as emotion can be injected into markets,
[9:59] it will be uh and headlines do that. And
[10:02] then now the connectivity of those
[10:04] markets uh allow people to ride that
[10:07] emotion and that is volatility, right?
[10:10] And that's going to only expand because
[10:12] there's going to be more and more things
[10:13] tokenized and it's going to have thinner
[10:15] and thinner liquidity during the dry
[10:18] parts of trading and it's going to have
[10:20] more and more u volatility or and
[10:23] liquidity during the times where it
[10:25] pumps because there's going to be larger
[10:27] on-ramps and more access and more people
[10:30] involved. But it's going to have this uh
[10:33] feeling for the people who can't get it
[10:36] in front of it or time it correctly,
[10:38] this feeling of you can't ever win and
[10:40] you're kind of chasing your tail. And if
[10:43] you've been in the crypto space,
[10:45] especially in previous cycles during
[10:47] altcoin um kind of cycles, you you've
[10:50] felt that before where it's like there's
[10:52] a new project and it's going parabolic
[10:55] every day. But you're always late to the
[10:58] party and you're always wondering how
[10:59] did people know this happened? And you
[11:01] know this the the answer is to have if
[11:05] you believe in a sector like crypto, you
[11:09] should have exposure that's broad. You
[11:11] shouldn't pick one horse to win. you
[11:12] should bet on the whole race and you
[11:14] should put prudent amounts of allocation
[11:17] towards those projects across all front.
[11:19] Well, I think the global markets are
[11:21] going to end up proving that, you know,
[11:24] mantra to be even more true and uh more
[11:27] important than ever. And I think
[11:29] management of those opportunities and
[11:32] management of the volatility that
[11:34] presents it itself because it's
[11:35] presenting itself across a broad array
[11:37] of markets, you're going to have to have
[11:39] automated tools. you're going to have to
[11:41] have automation sitting in that gap for
[11:44] you because you can't be available 24/7
[11:47] and you can't do the math as quickly as
[11:49] it's needed to be done to make good
[11:52] prudent decisions. Uh and so that is
[11:55] where you know Arch public has really
[11:56] thrived over the last 18 months in
[11:58] particular and you know got 25,000 plus
[12:01] customers using our software to do that
[12:04] to stand in the gap of them being
[12:06] available and the emotion that it drives
[12:09] into their life. Um to have their will
[12:12] be represented by by a piece of
[12:15] automation or or piece of software that
[12:17] they've coded themselves to represent
[12:19] exactly what they want to represent uh
[12:21] in those markets. And so as you see, and
[12:24] I'll add one more thing, um, as it
[12:26] pertains to kind of how important crypto
[12:29] is in the equation of this expansion of
[12:31] markets and in the inflation of dollars.
[12:33] You know, traditionally, money flows
[12:36] from the printing press through the
[12:37] banks to the people. Well, what are the
[12:40] banks all doing right now? They're
[12:42] investing in this infrastructure. And so
[12:44] when when you see, you know, the
[12:47] tokenization of markets and the
[12:48] liquidity that needs to be placed in
[12:50] that, there's a perfect relationship.
[12:52] We're not breaking precedents as to
[12:55] where the money will come from and where
[12:57] it will go. Um, and if you talk about a
[13:00] digital age where those markets are
[13:02] governed by AI and smart contracts and
[13:04] agents,
[13:06] they can't exchange, you know,
[13:09] compensation andor value in any form
[13:11] other than crypto. So crypto is going to
[13:14] be whether humans are using it or not
[13:18] the most widely used exchange of value
[13:21] in the new age of 247 markets and kind
[13:24] of the tokenization of all assets.
[13:26] >> Now we've seen in other areas where um I
[13:29] see companies reporting that their um
[13:32] documentation is being read more by
[13:34] agents than humans. I've seen charts
[13:36] that show that the amount of content
[13:37] being created now agents are creating
[13:40] more content than humans on the
[13:41] internet. Right? Just like you go
[13:43] through sector after sector. Is there a
[13:45] world where not specifically the
[13:47] highfrequency trading because already
[13:48] that has surpassed human trading in
[13:50] terms of the volume of trading on the
[13:52] traditional market but actually agentic
[13:54] trading where AI agents themselves are
[13:56] trading more than even the high
[13:57] frequency traders are.
[14:01] >> I think that that will have to be a very
[14:03] closely watched um area of of uh
[14:07] expansion and influence. You know right
[14:09] now the markets um are governed by you
[14:12] know different entities. The CME governs
[14:14] itself, SEC governs most the other
[14:17] markets and you know the you know the
[14:19] disruption of markets is really what uh
[14:23] they are charged with with you know
[14:26] keeping from happening or or maintaining
[14:28] a fair and equitable on and off ramp. So
[14:31] if they see a disruption in the form of
[14:33] AI, yes, they will take, I think,
[14:35] aggressive action to underpin the trust
[14:39] that's needed for those markets to
[14:41] function. But truly, I do think that
[14:43] smart contracts and the age of um
[14:46] tokenization, it's going to govern
[14:49] itself to a large extent. and we don't
[14:51] know where um we don't know how many
[14:55] agents will get involved, but at the end
[14:57] of the day, whether it's my agent
[14:59] against your agent or me against you, um
[15:04] we're going to both live and die on the
[15:06] same sword, which is like, you know, how
[15:08] greedy are we, how emotional are we,
[15:11] where we can spot winners and losers
[15:13] earlier in time. I mean, Warren Buffett
[15:15] strategy is a good example of one that I
[15:17] don't care how much software you had and
[15:20] how much computing power you had. You're
[15:23] it's really doesn't provide any more of
[15:25] an advantage to what he already has just
[15:28] with a pencil and a piece of paper
[15:29] because it's built on the fundamentals
[15:31] of compounding and human necessity uh in
[15:34] a way that's not fleeting like, you
[15:37] know, the the the latest and greatest
[15:39] craze.
[15:39] >> Andrew, what do you think?
[15:42] Um, so I think there's going to be a
[15:44] race uh here over the next two years to
[15:46] capitalize on on tokenized quote unquote
[15:49] trading. Um, you know, uh, not only
[15:52] global banks, investment banks, and then
[15:55] exchanges are rushing to make this a
[15:58] reality. And why are they rushing to
[15:59] make it a reality? Because it it it
[16:01] allows for additional revenue,
[16:03] meaningful additional revenue. And those
[16:06] organizations have been looking for
[16:07] additional revenue everywhere that they
[16:09] could possibly pinch it or squeeze it
[16:11] from for about 15 years. You know, their
[16:14] business models were meaningfully
[16:16] disrupted um you know, 18 19 years ago
[16:19] during the great financial crisis and
[16:20] they've been searching for something
[16:22] other than just wealth management to
[16:24] fill their coffers on a quarterly and
[16:27] annual basis. So I think trading will
[16:29] become a much much bigger part um of
[16:32] just the landscape uh going forward. I
[16:35] think tokenization will provide that. I
[16:38] think volatility uh will become
[16:40] something that uh people will lean into
[16:44] and people will uh be encouraged to lean
[16:47] into across different platforms. I think
[16:50] of one transaction, right? I think of
[16:52] when Morgan Stanley bought Erade. Morgan
[16:55] Stanley probably bought E Trade at the
[16:57] time because they had, you know, uh,
[16:59] tens of millions of customers on that on
[17:01] that platform that had capital and
[17:04] opportunity associated with it. At the
[17:06] time, it was simply increasing the total
[17:08] headcount of customers that are doing
[17:11] business at Morgan Stanley. And how many
[17:13] even even whatever the small percentage
[17:16] was, how many people can we move from
[17:18] Erade into Morgan Stanley and make more
[17:21] money off of them because it's an
[17:22] upscale experience. I think with
[17:25] tokenized trading, tokenized assets,
[17:28] that Erade property can now be
[17:30] reconstituted as a trading property
[17:33] where more money can be made. They can
[17:36] now bring on new customers. Expect an
[17:39] influx of customers associated with a
[17:42] movement. That's 24/7 tokenized trading.
[17:45] Again, whether good nor bad is not the
[17:48] is not really the question here. It's
[17:50] what's the trend going to be. So, I
[17:52] don't know if if you guys were around a
[17:54] little older than both of you. Um, but
[17:56] listen, there was a world back in the
[17:58] mid '9s, mid to late '9s where there
[18:01] were day trading firms where you know,
[18:04] you you left your job and you went and
[18:07] sat in an office where you day traded
[18:10] and it was a day trading shop, right?
[18:12] You you weren't at your home doing it.
[18:14] You went to an office and you were a day
[18:16] trader in a day trading shop where they
[18:18] offered you additional capital to do so.
[18:21] I think we're going to see another
[18:22] version of that associated with
[18:25] tokenization, 247 trading, and uh again,
[18:29] capital a wash everywhere. Um it won't
[18:32] look like that. Um but in terms of
[18:35] revenue to these firms um and increased
[18:39] uh um activity across markets um you're
[18:43] going to see Jeff Park put out a a neat
[18:47] idea associated with this uh I think
[18:50] last week not last week yesterday is
[18:52] what it was and the idea that token
[18:56] tokenization and trading could end up
[18:58] being the next version of sort of
[19:00] universal basic income that the idea of
[19:02] harvesting volatility associated with
[19:04] tokenized assets. And again, tokenized
[19:07] assets is just a an interesting choice
[19:10] of words for equities that are just
[19:12] available all the time to trade. Um, I I
[19:16] think it's an interesting concept and I
[19:17] think we're going to see something like
[19:18] that over the next 12 to 36 months.
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[21:55] You know what I've always wondered and I
[21:57] have no clue if this is going to happen
[21:58] or not, but there's two things that
[22:00] we're talking about here. There is the
[22:01] access persistently to your assets in
[22:04] terms of 247 trading. Uh but also by
[22:07] quote unquote tokenizing, you now are
[22:08] able to do fractional shares not just
[22:11] for buying and investing, right? We
[22:13] already have fractional shares on many
[22:15] retail platforms, but what if all of a
[22:17] sudden I can actually use it to a
[22:20] fraction of an Apple share could buy me
[22:22] something. And so what you get into is
[22:24] this weird world. Again, I say it's
[22:26] weird because we don't really do it
[22:27] today, but it feels like it it's now
[22:29] technically possible. And the question
[22:31] is, will consumers adopt it? But now you
[22:33] don't have to sell my Apple shares, go
[22:36] to cash, and take my cash and convert it
[22:38] for a good or a service. Instead, I can
[22:40] just simply go from Apple stock to good
[22:42] or service and the technology would let
[22:45] me do that. Do you guys have an opinion
[22:47] as to whether that is something that
[22:48] will be a consumer behavior or do you
[22:50] think that actually the consumer
[22:51] behavior will overwhelm the technology
[22:52] and people will stay with this kind of
[22:54] going back into cash before they make
[22:56] purchases?
[22:58] >> I think this is a migration from
[23:00] brickandmortar banks to online app based
[23:04] banks.
[23:06] And if I had to guess, they want you to
[23:08] hold the assets and they want you to
[23:10] borrow against them so they can charge
[23:12] you interest. Uh that would rejuvenate
[23:15] the lending um side of banking in a way
[23:19] that would be good for the banks and it
[23:20] would be good for the economy. It would
[23:22] be good for the assets, it would be good
[23:23] for the consumer. You couldn't argue it
[23:26] for many. It's it's uh it's defensible
[23:28] from every angle. And I think, you know,
[23:30] if you look at, for example, like payday
[23:33] loans or overdraft protection at the
[23:36] bank, it's geared towards more lending.
[23:39] Um, and Bitcoin and this new economy
[23:43] that we've been talking about in the
[23:44] form of digital assets provides them uh
[23:48] a piece of collateral that can be
[23:50] repossessed without a lot of cost uh
[23:53] without a lot of burden from a
[23:55] management perspective. And um that
[23:58] smart contract repossession of
[24:00] collateral mechanism allows them to grow
[24:03] and expand their lending capabilities at
[24:06] scale that the likes of which they've
[24:08] never even imagined because most lending
[24:11] uh has scalable risk attached to it. if
[24:14] if I uh you know have too much
[24:16] concentration risk in real estate for
[24:18] example in a specific area and there's
[24:20] some mass you know mass exodus of
[24:23] population out of that area my real
[24:25] estate portfolio may take me under um
[24:28] whereas if it's more diversified but
[24:30] there's only a certain the more
[24:31] diversified you are the more
[24:32] geographically difficult it is to manage
[24:35] those assets. This is the first time
[24:37] where assets that have infinite um
[24:42] liquidity expansion opportunities
[24:44] attached to them can also be used as
[24:47] collateral in inside of a smart contract
[24:49] that allows the banks to lend infinite
[24:52] dollars out uh without the risk that
[24:54] they would incur in any other asset. So
[24:57] I think this is going to be an expansion
[24:59] of debt. I think it's going to be an
[25:01] expansion of markets. It's going to be a
[25:03] redefinition of what banks are. And yes,
[25:05] I do think to answer your question that
[25:07] you'll be in the grocery store paying uh
[25:10] your your grocery bill with a loan
[25:13] that's given to you by the bank that
[25:16] holds all of your assets that is lending
[25:19] against a smart contract because you're
[25:22] demanding liquidity. Doesn't really
[25:24] matter where the loan originates from.
[25:26] It could originate from a basket
[25:28] approach where they're assessing all of
[25:29] your repossessible smart contract, you
[25:32] know, pledged securities andor
[25:34] collateral pieces.
[25:36] >> A a real a real world example of that uh
[25:38] real quickly is the difference in scale
[25:41] between say JP Morgan and Jane Street,
[25:44] right? So JP Morgan has 330,000
[25:47] employees. Jane Street has about 3,500.
[25:50] And the profits on a quarterly basis uh
[25:53] skew towards Jane Street. Uh and in
[25:56] fact, Tom Lee had some commentary about
[25:58] this the other day uh about you know
[26:00] blockchain and AI uh to Tilman's point
[26:03] is going to radically change the banking
[26:06] sector um in the past in the next 3 to 5
[26:09] years, right? So you're going to be able
[26:11] to meaningfully reduce uh actual
[26:14] headcount um and and deliver you know
[26:17] more significant services and of course
[26:21] increase revenue and profits. So, uh,
[26:23] it's kind of a fascinating reality, um,
[26:26] when you see the difference between, you
[26:28] know, global JP Morgan 300,000 plus
[26:31] employees in Jane Street and what they
[26:33] do and how they do it. Um, and then the
[26:36] difference in in in revenue per employee
[26:38] is extraordinary, right? That um, that
[26:41] makes sense. How do you guys think about
[26:42] like something like hyperlquid and you
[26:44] know they're starting to trade tokenized
[26:45] versions of private companies which
[26:47] seems like that's now like the new focus
[26:50] and you know there's some price
[26:51] discovery or what are you guys seeing
[26:52] there?
[26:54] >> Expansion of market opportunity is just
[26:56] more money flowing to more places
[26:58] because it's available now uh and
[27:01] technology has caught up with uh the the
[27:04] demand. The demand's always been there.
[27:06] I mean, if you if you look at, you know,
[27:08] the way in which you make the most
[27:10] amount of money in the United States,
[27:12] it's buying in early to private
[27:14] companies. That that is the way you make
[27:16] the most amount of money. Um, and so why
[27:19] not fractionalize it like you said
[27:21] earlier? Uh, why not take it to a lower
[27:24] denomination that allows more
[27:26] participation? Um, and you know, if you
[27:28] look at like traditional institutional
[27:31] funds, like commercial real estate funds
[27:33] for example, most of the minimum
[27:36] thresholds are like $5 million you have
[27:38] to place or you don't get invited. Uh,
[27:42] and you boil that down to why would they
[27:44] do that? Why wouldn't they want money
[27:45] from everyone? Well, because the
[27:47] management hassle of issuing a security
[27:52] um to you know qualified investors,
[27:55] there is a lot of cost and friction
[27:57] there. So if they can cherrypick and
[27:59] find a reputation where by which they
[28:02] can demand a high minimum threshold and
[28:04] they can deal with a lot fewer people,
[28:07] it alleviates a lot of that that
[28:09] headache. And so fractionalizing it
[28:11] through tokenization alleviates the
[28:14] headache but also lets you offer it to
[28:16] that broad market. And so it it's again
[28:19] a it's going to be a huge place where
[28:21] liquidity is going to have to be
[28:22] injected.
[28:23] >> I I'd also add that over the next 18 to
[28:25] 24 months Hyperlid is going to face an
[28:28] enormous amount of competition.
[28:30] Enormous amount of competition. So, you
[28:33] know, again, the likes of Erade, Robin
[28:35] Hood, um, every traditional player in
[28:39] the world is going to offer the same
[28:41] type of tokenized access to this stuff
[28:44] that Hyperliquid is today. Um, it it'll
[28:47] all get commoditized. Um, there'll be an
[28:50] enormous influx of revenue initially in
[28:52] the first six to let's call it 18 months
[28:54] and then steadily the costs associated
[28:57] with tokenized trading will come down
[29:00] and down and down and down.
[29:02] Well, the the decision that I see facing
[29:04] Hyperlquid and all these other
[29:06] cryptocentric or tokenization centric
[29:08] companies is do we try to play with the
[29:12] big legacy boys and stand on our own two
[29:16] feet or do is there an M&A move that
[29:19] makes sense for us um that protects us
[29:23] um and you know from that competition
[29:26] and gets us critical mass in the market
[29:28] share that we possess to where we become
[29:31] you kind of too big to fail, if you
[29:33] will. And I I do think that Hyperlid
[29:36] possesses that type of equality where
[29:38] they could either be purchased um andor
[29:42] merge with another large legacy firm to
[29:46] to to make this a reality across a
[29:48] broader customer base.
[29:50] >> Now, when you guys see this like access
[29:52] to markets, which I agree with and I
[29:54] think that that is happening, I think
[29:55] it's generally a net positive. What are
[29:57] the downsides? like, you know, maybe if
[29:59] you look to outside of like pure
[30:00] investing, you look towards like sports
[30:02] gambling and many of those areas, uh
[30:04] there's a lot of young people who
[30:05] frankly they're just like, I want a
[30:06] quote unquote return. And I put that in
[30:08] those air quotes because I don't know if
[30:10] they really care whether they bought a
[30:11] stock and it goes up 5x or they hit a
[30:13] triple parlay and feel like they're, you
[30:15] know, getting rich on that. And so on
[30:17] one hand, you are getting access to more
[30:19] markets. On the other hand, you know, I
[30:21] think that maybe people who are a little
[30:22] bit older, who have a little bit more
[30:24] experience, who have kind of seen how
[30:25] that plays out, may be like, ah, maybe
[30:27] some of the gambling stuff isn't what we
[30:28] want, you know, a wide swath of young
[30:30] people to do.
[30:33] My argument would be that education uh
[30:36] and knowledge is power, and I'd rather
[30:39] see a generation understand money from a
[30:43] riskreward perspective than not. Um, and
[30:47] so you look at the current educational
[30:48] system. You look at the current
[30:50] generation, my generation, and the kind
[30:52] of two below me. Um, and there's there's
[30:56] not a large group of us that understand
[30:59] like the time value of money and like
[31:01] basic principles that if you go up two
[31:04] generations were the foundation of their
[31:08] careers and what they thought about
[31:09] every single day. And so you go, well,
[31:12] all those people, you have a a a large
[31:16] segment of the future that doesn't play
[31:19] in the markets and doesn't understand
[31:21] the difference between having their
[31:23] money make money for them and having
[31:26] their hands make money for them. And
[31:28] that is the square one of understanding
[31:31] money in my opinion. Uh because once you
[31:34] understand that money has function
[31:37] beyond spending that it actually can be
[31:41] put to work no different than you know a
[31:44] force of labor can be put to work then
[31:46] you start to go wow this becomes
[31:48] something that you know while I'm doing
[31:50] my 9 to5 I can have other things working
[31:53] on my behalf. Now granted, there will be
[31:56] some steep learning curves that will
[31:58] cause a lot of losses, but again, I
[32:01] would I would venture to say that that
[32:03] education is worthwhile even with the
[32:05] losses incurred. Um, and one would hope
[32:09] that that would lead somebody into
[32:11] understanding more prudent ways to place
[32:14] money than sports betting, right? Um,
[32:16] but I think the the the fundamental
[32:19] involvement of putting money to work is
[32:22] something that has been lost. And I
[32:24] think we need to put that back into
[32:27] everyone's hands. Uh, and God only knows
[32:30] the innovation that's that will come of
[32:32] that and the participation and the human
[32:34] capital that then, you know, yields
[32:36] fruit for us as a whole, I think, will
[32:39] be will be evident.
[32:40] >> Yeah, prediction markets aren't going
[32:42] away. They'll they'll continue to grow.
[32:45] Um, you know, one of the ways that you
[32:47] can see that happening again faster than
[32:50] we all expect is, you know, there's a
[32:53] couple of prediction market ETFs that
[32:55] are on the on the cusp of coming out.
[32:57] Um, what in the world those are going to
[32:59] track? I don't know. They're going to
[33:01] track something. Um, and and to to that
[33:04] end, you know, prediction markets are
[33:06] just going to be a version. They're
[33:08] they're a preversion
[33:10] of tokenized uh real world asset trading
[33:13] 24/7 trading because prediction markets
[33:16] are 24/7 cryptos 24/7. So tokenized
[33:20] again the these are now banks and the
[33:22] major players saying wait a minute
[33:24] there's a lot of capital flight moving
[33:26] around that that that's leaving us that
[33:29] went to crypto that's going to
[33:31] prediction markets we want that back.
[33:33] How do we get that back? Let's take a
[33:35] little bit from this crypto deal. Let's
[33:37] take a little bit from this prediction
[33:39] market thing that's happening. Let's
[33:41] create uh tokenized assets on the
[33:44] playing field that we're on. Turn it on
[33:46] 247 and Okay, now let's go do that. My
[33:49] guess is is you're going to have
[33:50] tokenized versions that are 2x 3x 4x to
[33:53] the upside 2x 3x 4x to the downside that
[33:57] you're going to be able to play on
[33:58] traditional equities, whatever they
[34:00] happen to be. That's all going to
[34:01] happen. And it's all going to happen
[34:03] because you're now competing with
[34:05] prediction markets 24/7, crypto 24/7,
[34:07] and whatever else is 24/7.
[34:09] >> I mean, it makes so much sense, right?
[34:11] Is there's a war for attention. There's
[34:13] also a war for capital, and investors
[34:15] are going to have to choose where to put
[34:16] it, where is it best treated, where do
[34:17] they think it's going to appreciate the
[34:19] most and also be insulated the most from
[34:21] all of the uh the challenges that people
[34:23] face. Um, where can we send people to
[34:24] find out more about Arch and and what is
[34:26] kind of your guys pitch to people if
[34:28] they use your product?
[34:31] First of all, I I think the passion lies
[34:34] deep in a need that was with us at the
[34:36] very beginning, which is the the markets
[34:39] drive emotion. It drives bad decisionm.
[34:42] We want prudent plans that we can
[34:44] execute um over long periods of time
[34:47] without the burden of the management of
[34:49] that. Um the the group of customers that
[34:52] we have are sophisticated, high- netw
[34:54] worth individuals all the way down to
[34:57] people who are very beginners in crypto
[35:00] and they want tools that have proven
[35:03] outcomes that that are an extension of
[35:05] their will in the markets that they can
[35:07] turn on and set it and forget it and
[35:09] come back and and it's done what they
[35:12] have prescribed it to do. And so that's
[35:14] what we specialize in. We specialize in
[35:16] doing that with um a great group of
[35:19] customer service folks that really know
[35:22] the tools well and we'll spend as much
[35:24] time getting you familiar with them so
[35:26] that you feel the confidence in using
[35:28] them. Um but that's what we're
[35:29] passionate about. Archpub.com is where
[35:31] you can find us. You can download and
[35:34] use uh the tools for free uh to get
[35:37] started and to see if it's something
[35:38] that you find attractive. But I can
[35:40] assure you it's a real eye openening
[35:42] experience. Um, and if you have ever,
[35:45] you know, dealt with automation in the
[35:47] markets before, I can assure you it's
[35:49] something that you have not seen. I we
[35:51] we do not ha, um, run across anything
[35:53] familiar or similar to what we've built.
[35:55] So, uh, come check us out and we'd love
[35:57] to help you.
[35:58] >> Yeah, it it's extraordinarily exciting.
[36:00] Um, everybody's going to need need to
[36:02] use some sort of automation, AI, agentic
[36:07] uh, type of tools on a go forward basis.
[36:10] If you've got 247 markets everywhere,
[36:14] you can only stay up 12 to 18 hours a
[36:16] day. You can't do this on your own. So,
[36:18] you're going to have to get familiar
[36:19] with tools like this and everybody's
[36:22] going to be using them. So, one, um, to
[36:25] be on the the very bleeding edge of
[36:27] tech, which is where Arch Public is, and
[36:29] then to have a huge amount of folks at
[36:32] our company that are ready to talk to
[36:34] you at any time about not only how do
[36:37] you set this up, what does this mean,
[36:39] can I change this, what about that? You
[36:41] can ask them a million questions.
[36:43] They'll be available to you anytime,
[36:45] anywhere to help you as you you walk
[36:47] through this process. And then
[36:48] secondarily performance extraordinary
[36:51] meaningful meaningful delta variances
[36:54] between like buy and hold and then using
[36:56] our tools. And then finally we build
[36:58] tools that harvest yield to the upside
[37:00] and to the downside. To the upside
[37:02] you've got cash yield and additional
[37:04] value associated with that asset. You
[37:07] have more and more of that asset as
[37:09] you're accumulating it to the upside. To
[37:11] the downside you're now harvesting tax
[37:13] losses. And we have tools that do that
[37:16] for you on an ongoing basis as well. The
[37:18] warehouse of tools that we have is
[37:20] massive and huge. In other words,
[37:23] whatever you want to get accomplished in
[37:25] terms of your will in the markets with
[37:28] crypto, we have other, you know, broader
[37:30] things coming to market across different
[37:32] uh different assets. Come talk to us and
[37:35] we'll be able to say yes, we can make
[37:37] that happen.
[37:39] >> I love it guys. Thank you guys so much
[37:40] for the time today. We'll definitely do
[37:41] it again in the future. Awesome.
[37:44] Thanks, Anthony.