Why All-Time High Stocks Are Bullish for Bitcoin — Anthony Pompliano

[0:00] But I do want to make sure people
[0:01] realize what you said is important. This
[0:02] is a completely different economy and we
[0:05] are in the very, very early stages. I
[0:08] mean, it's year four of chat GPT and all
[0:11] the first three years were about getting
[0:12] the IQ up. This is the agentic side. So
[0:14] digital employees are getting hired,
[0:16] which means profit margins are going to
[0:17] stay at these levels and you guys need
[0:19] to be invested to some degree in the AI
[0:21] trade and not worry about this bubble.
[0:23] What's going on, guys? Today we've got a
[0:24] very special conversation with Jordi
[0:25] Visser. This one is worth paying
[0:27] attention to. The US stock market is on
[0:29] absolute fire. We continue to hit
[0:31] all-time high after all-time high and
[0:33] Jordi's here to explain to us, why is it
[0:34] happening? Where are the returns coming
[0:36] from? How is he changing his portfolio
[0:38] and what do you need to understand about
[0:39] the stocks, about what's going on in AI,
[0:41] what's going on in the macroeconomy and
[0:43] how he is thinking about what's going to
[0:44] happen through the rest of this year.
[0:46] This conversation has alpha dripping all
[0:48] over it. Make sure you give it a listen
[0:50] and then let me and Jordi know what you
[0:51] think. Here's my latest conversation
[0:53] with Jordi Visser. All right, Jordi, the
[0:54] stock market is on fire. Literally, it
[0:57] cannot stop going up regardless of what
[0:58] happens in the world. A couple of data
[1:00] points is that we just saw in the month
[1:02] of April the US stock market and the S&P
[1:05] went up over 10%. That has only happened
[1:07] 12 times ever in history. It also had
[1:09] seven all-time highs in the month of
[1:11] April, which is the seventh time that
[1:13] that's ever happened. When you look at
[1:15] those data points out over the next 12
[1:17] months, the numbers are bonkers. It
[1:19] suggests that we are likely to see a
[1:21] double-digit return over the next 12
[1:23] months from the stock market even though
[1:24] people are calling it a bubble and
[1:26] there's issues. What do you think is
[1:27] going on here and why does the stock
[1:28] market keep going higher?
[1:30] The stock market is being driven by
[1:31] something that we talk about every
[1:32] single week. It's something we agreed
[1:34] was a good thing for us to do on here.
[1:36] >> Your fashion sense? Yes, exactly.
[1:39] I brought my purple sweater out for the
[1:40] end of winter.
[1:42] Um
[1:44] We talked about AI. So let's leave
[1:46] crypto to the side for a second, but the
[1:48] disruption of artificial intelligence
[1:50] into our world.
[1:52] Uh 6 months ago, bubble was front page
[1:55] news every single week. Go to Google
[1:57] Trends just before Opus 4.5 came out, it
[2:00] was a bubble.
[2:02] Well, now we're seeing the revenues come
[2:04] in and when you have a stock like
[2:06] Caterpillar for example,
[2:08] so Caterpillar was up 10% yesterday.
[2:12] Their PE is now approaching 40.
[2:15] Those types of things don't happen for
[2:17] cyclical companies unless you're kind of
[2:19] coming out of a recession and you've had
[2:21] things down. Their PE is almost double
[2:23] Nvidia's now. I mean, think about where
[2:26] we are.
[2:27] Semiconductor names, every single one,
[2:29] most of them are in one of my thematic
[2:31] baskets in my portfolio. They don't
[2:33] stop. So,
[2:35] this is AI and to show you how like
[2:39] breath still allows people to be
[2:40] bearish. Let's forget software which is
[2:42] still near the lows. Let's forget the
[2:44] private equity companies which have not
[2:46] budged my very much.
[2:49] We make all-time highs in the S&P and
[2:50] the median stock
[2:53] is 13% below its all-time highs.
[2:57] About half of the S&P 500 companies are
[2:59] up for the year and about half are down.
[3:02] So,
[3:02] unfortunately, um
[3:04] and I I literally because I spent so
[3:07] many time with institutional clients and
[3:09] because the the subscriber wall went up
[3:11] and I'm like focused a lot, I had to
[3:13] come up with a term for this because if
[3:15] you're invested in the S&P 500, which is
[3:17] what most individuals are through their
[3:20] financial advisors,
[3:22] there's a benchmark arbitrage that's
[3:23] happening. When you have something that
[3:25] we've both stolen from Elon Musk and
[3:27] said super
[3:28] supersonic tsunami,
[3:31] it means something's moving fast and
[3:33] it's structural and it's just
[3:34] overpowering everything. So, if you're
[3:36] invested in things that were around
[3:38] business cycles and the consumer, you're
[3:41] not doing very well. If you're in
[3:42] software, you're not doing very well.
[3:44] Even with the hyperscalers, you're not
[3:45] doing nearly as well as you are with
[3:47] all of the things related to power, all
[3:49] of the things related to semiconductors,
[3:51] all the things related to servers. Are
[3:53] those things extended? Yes. If you look
[3:55] at all these charts, it's a straight
[3:56] line up. And that's why when you look at
[3:57] the S&P, it doesn't look as crazy
[4:00] because it actually was down for a while
[4:01] and then it went up. But the
[4:02] semiconductors, the memory names,
[4:03] they've just gone through the roof. So I
[4:05] think what people have to in their mind
[4:06] have
[4:07] this is the early innings of this. And
[4:11] if you're invested in the S&P 500,
[4:13] you're only up
[4:14] 5% year-to-date, five and change
[4:17] year-to-date. If you're invested in
[4:18] semiconductors and you're investing in
[4:20] these other things, you're up between 30
[4:21] and 50%. And unfortunately, for everyone
[4:24] that's sitting there waiting for the
[4:25] index to re-weight, I would look into
[4:28] some other ways to get involved in this,
[4:30] at least from a minimum of a small
[4:31] amount, because this is not the end of
[4:33] this. This is still going to happen even
[4:35] though we'll have a correction at some
[4:36] point here.
[4:37] Now, one of the aspects that I find very
[4:39] interesting is you're talking about AI.
[4:41] We know the S&P is hitting all these new
[4:43] all-time highs. But if you dig in even
[4:45] deeper to a lot of the market, the
[4:47] Russell 2000, the Dow Jones Industrial,
[4:49] like this is, in a weird way, yes, 50%
[4:52] of the S&P is down, but the indexes, in
[4:56] a very wide breadth, are all hitting
[4:58] all-time highs in the month of April.
[5:00] And so, how do you look at that? Is that
[5:02] just like it's all the AI trade, but
[5:04] some of it is the large-scale tech
[5:05] companies, some of it is data centers,
[5:07] power generation, and then you get into
[5:09] commodities, chemicals, photonics, like
[5:11] it's
[5:12] everything tied to AI, and that's why
[5:14] you're seeing all the indexes hit
[5:15] all-time highs?
[5:17] Yeah, it's a good question. This is the
[5:18] whole point of this because there's a
[5:20] lot of small-cap businesses that are
[5:21] tied into commodities, that are tied
[5:23] into power, that are tied into
[5:24] chemicals, that are tied into
[5:26] semiconductors even. Since we like to do
[5:28] some like stats on the thing, go through
[5:30] it, because the Russell 2000 is making
[5:32] all-time highs as we go through this.
[5:34] >> Are we stat heads? Is that what we are?
[5:36] Like stat heads? I'm definitely I mean,
[5:37] it's Kentucky Derby weekend. My my
[5:39] papers, you know,
[5:41] going out today. So, uh you can find it
[5:43] on LinkedIn and and and If you see Jordy
[5:45] and I in the streets, you better call us
[5:47] a stathead, all right?
[5:48] >> Remember I was trained in handicapping.
[5:49] This is like a big weekend for me as
[5:51] someone who's gone to the Derby like
[5:52] about 15 years. So Man, I love doing
[5:54] this every every week. Go ahead. Jeff
[5:57] Bezos famously said, "Your margin is my
[5:59] opportunity."
[6:01] So six, seven companies
[6:04] took all of the opportunity. Your
[6:07] margin, they they destroyed
[6:09] so many companies in its path and you
[6:10] had concentration.
[6:12] When you get into your the new the new
[6:15] line that I've I've put in, your CAPEX
[6:18] is my opportunity.
[6:19] >> Ooh.
[6:19] >> Well, now you're taking up everything.
[6:22] And the reason is because we
[6:23] underinvested in manufacturing. We
[6:26] underinvested. So if you go back to a
[6:27] year ago,
[6:29] whatever your beliefs are and what the
[6:31] White House goal was, their goal was to
[6:33] get the middle part of the country
[6:35] growing again. It was to focus on AI. It
[6:38] was to fo-
[6:40] They basically said, "We're making all
[6:41] of the rules for this." So if you missed
[6:44] it,
[6:45] it's your own problem. Now, I would
[6:46] remind people they've also been focused
[6:48] on crypto. So at some point by the end
[6:51] of this year, you're going to look back
[6:52] and go, "Oh, the administration was
[6:53] positive on crypto as well. Why didn't I
[6:54] get involved in that?" So you still have
[6:56] things that are lagging behind that I
[6:57] believe are part of this bigger plan.
[7:00] But for AI, this involves so many
[7:02] companies that have been left for dead.
[7:03] And the semiconductors alone,
[7:06] it's very top-heavy. So Nvidia, when
[7:08] people hear semiconductors, like look at
[7:10] these charts, I'm like, the dollars that
[7:12] are going into chips, it's mainly chips.
[7:14] If you guys haven't heard this, you can
[7:16] find it, you know, on on my website and
[7:18] I've written about it, but the
[7:18] five-layer cake that Jensen Huang has
[7:21] talked about, the three bottom layers,
[7:24] energy/power, chips, and infrastructure.
[7:27] He's telling you what names to be long.
[7:29] Now, a lot of those names have been left
[7:31] for dead cuz they've been in a bear
[7:32] market for 15 years. It's all been about
[7:34] software. So the transition from
[7:36] software into semiconductors into power
[7:39] things into jet
[7:40] We don't have enough compute. So you can
[7:42] take that chip and that power thing and
[7:44] say, are there going to be episodic
[7:46] moves where these things fall 20-30%? Of
[7:48] course.
[7:49] But, do I have confidence that 5 years
[7:51] from now we're going to need more
[7:52] compute? I have uber confidence that
[7:55] between humanoids coming,
[7:57] moving to space We We don't have enough
[7:59] compute. And so, the chip needs are
[8:02] really just going to keep going. And so,
[8:03] these companies are going to be the
[8:04] leaders of the future, and that's why
[8:06] these multiples are so high on those
[8:08] names, and they're becoming so low on
[8:10] software cuz software's dead.
[8:12] These stocks, we need them for the
[8:13] foreseeable future, and that's when
[8:14] multiples typically are high is when you
[8:16] have some kind of certainty that 3 years
[8:18] from now, not only is the company going
[8:19] to be in business, which you can't say
[8:21] about software, but you can say there's
[8:22] still going to be shortages, which is
[8:24] where most of these things are at. So,
[8:25] what's interesting to me is uh
[8:26] as we go to build, we as as an easy
[8:29] example, uh we went to go build data
[8:31] centers, and we said, "Okay, well, we
[8:32] need power." And there was enough power.
[8:33] Eventually, we ran out of power, and
[8:34] everyone said, "Oh, let's go run into
[8:35] the power generation." And then, when
[8:37] there's that shortage of power, all of a
[8:39] sudden, people say, "Hey, let's build
[8:40] more power." And they start to pull on
[8:41] all these commodity, you know, inputs in
[8:43] the supply chain, and we just keep
[8:45] hitting shortages, bottlenecks, stress,
[8:47] etc. And it does feel like the market is
[8:50] just running around, and the best
[8:52] investors are just saying, "Where is the
[8:53] next bottleneck that we're going to hit?
[8:55] Let me go and buy that before everybody
[8:57] else."
[8:58] What I find interesting
[9:00] is uh let's take the Roundhill Memory
[9:02] ETF. I don't know if you've looked at
[9:04] this, uh DRAM. Um I think very highly of
[9:06] the Roundhill guys in general. I think
[9:08] they they understand the pulse of the
[9:09] market, and they've been very good at
[9:10] thematic ETFs. Uh but, when I looked
[9:13] into why did it explode? They went from
[9:15] zero to like 2 billion in assets in,
[9:17] let's call it 2 weeks or so.
[9:19] They have two companies that US
[9:21] investors can't get access to, and
[9:22] they're doing it via swaps, essentially.
[9:25] And so, there's also the arbitrage, not
[9:27] only of finding the shortages, Yeah. but
[9:29] then there is the like, which investors
[9:31] have exposure? So, you have Korean
[9:32] companies that US investors have a hard
[9:34] time buying. If you now can bring them
[9:35] to the US market, all of a sudden you
[9:37] get an explosion of demand and that lead
[9:39] to a lot of capital inflow. And so it
[9:41] feels like the investment community is
[9:44] basically saying, what are all the
[9:45] different ways that we can exploit this
[9:47] for financial gain, but that's what you
[9:49] want in a capitalistic system is because
[9:51] it's ultimately bringing capital in to
[9:53] solve these problems.
[9:55] I I mean, this is again this gets into
[9:57] this first the topic you just asked
[9:59] about.
[10:01] This is a broader rally than just US
[10:03] software companies. So when you look at
[10:05] the Korean stock market it's through the
[10:06] roof and part of the reason is because a
[10:08] lot of the things that we need,
[10:10] particularly on the chip side, whether
[10:12] it's Taiwan semi for memory, whether
[10:14] it's SK Hynix or Samsung, these are
[10:16] companies that are listed in Asia. So
[10:18] this does create an opportunity for
[10:20] thematic ETFs that are related to things
[10:22] that people can't get here and put them
[10:24] into this this is the reason why when I
[10:26] say I have a thematic portfolio, it's
[10:29] all around AI. So the stat I gave you
[10:30] that about 50% of the companies in the
[10:32] S&P are uh down for the year,
[10:35] thir- uh 17% of my 100 names are down
[10:38] for the year. The ones that are all up,
[10:40] again it's all the things that we've
[10:41] talked about and I think people should
[10:43] listen to and really take into heart
[10:45] this supply uh shortage situation.
[10:49] I You and I like to look at companies
[10:51] and we think about investing.
[10:53] You want to invest in companies where
[10:55] the demand is
[10:57] insatiable and the supply is limited.
[10:59] You have pricing power,
[11:01] it lasts for a long time as you're
[11:03] trying to get that the supply. Yes, you
[11:04] have to invest money to get the CapEx,
[11:07] but this is why when I say that
[11:09] Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have a
[11:11] combined $1.3 trillion of of a backlog.
[11:15] Mhm. I mean, it's an enormous number. So
[11:18] everyone who is arguing that they're not
[11:19] going to get the revenues in, they have
[11:21] contracted agreements. Now, so did
[11:23] Oracle and their stock collapsed, but
[11:25] it's found a bottom and now it's started
[11:26] to rally a little bit. I think what
[11:28] people need to realize is when you hear
[11:30] bubble,
[11:31] bubbles are times where supply is
[11:33] significantly above demand or demand is
[11:37] fake.
[11:38] The demand for AI is insatiable. Now,
[11:41] the price is going higher. Maybe that'll
[11:43] slow demand at some point. That's what
[11:44] usually happens. And so if there is a
[11:46] correction this year that knocks semis
[11:48] down 30 40%. My guess it'll be from what
[11:50] Elon has said, which is
[11:52] we don't have enough power to actually
[11:54] light these things up. So you can buy as
[11:55] much of these as you want, but if you
[11:57] don't get the power to light up the
[12:00] semis, then you have all this inventory
[12:02] and you got to wait until the power
[12:03] comes. So I don't think it's going to be
[12:04] a debt thing. I think there'll be fears
[12:07] over there being too much supply
[12:08] relative demand in the short term, but
[12:10] the demand is insatiable. It's the power
[12:12] that might not be insatiable. That's the
[12:14] part about this that if if right now
[12:17] you've been lucky enough uh to be
[12:19] heavily involved in
[12:21] the Roundhill ETF and you've had a huge
[12:23] move in memory and you've had a you've
[12:24] been invested in semiconductors and some
[12:26] of the names we've talked about here.
[12:29] I believe the power names, oil stocks
[12:31] are not priced properly for where oil is
[12:33] now. Chemical stocks are not priced
[12:34] properly. They also haven't run as much.
[12:37] They're steady Eddie growers. They're
[12:39] not going to get you this, but they're
[12:39] going to outperform the S&P. So the way
[12:41] that I'm trying to think about things is
[12:43] when you rotate from some of these
[12:44] things, if you're a momentum player,
[12:46] great, ride it until it starts to show
[12:48] signs, but then move to the other side.
[12:50] And the other angle is I still believe
[12:51] that if the market's going to sit up
[12:53] here make new all-time highs,
[12:54] Bitcoin's going to be part of this and
[12:56] so is Ethereum and these other places
[12:58] are going to be in there and I think
[12:59] that stuff is coming soon as well. I was
[13:01] at a conference uh over the last week or
[13:03] so and
[13:04] >> were. that there was a there was an
[13:06] individual there who runs a very large
[13:08] brokerage in Korea and I was talking to
[13:10] him about um you know some of the
[13:12] investing trends and and all this and he
[13:14] explicitly said the reason why crypto is
[13:17] suffering is because so many of the
[13:19] Korean investors have gone into the AI
[13:21] trade. And I know that there is a belief
[13:24] between you, I, and many others that
[13:26] these things are inter uh intertwined
[13:28] and and they're linked together, but I
[13:29] do think that retail flows are chasing
[13:32] the AI trade merely because it is more
[13:35] volatile and it is driving more returns
[13:37] right now than crypto is. At some point
[13:39] maybe that evens out or even, you know,
[13:41] shifts back to crypto, but
[13:43] people that are ignoring that data point
[13:46] are lying to themselves. I completely
[13:48] agree.
[13:50] I've said it here as I've gotten to know
[13:52] the crypto space, the retail community
[13:54] is the energy for crypto. It's If you
[13:57] don't have the energy, you can still
[13:59] work your way higher.
[14:00] But what's the difference if crypto's up
[14:03] or down 5% for the year? It doesn't
[14:04] bring the enthusiasm of as a growth
[14:06] asset. So it needs to be in a place
[14:08] where the other stuff isn't working or
[14:10] where it's not as obvious and it's not
[14:11] going through. Now, the problem is when
[14:13] you get this kind of move higher in
[14:15] these things
[14:16] and it's still not participating and
[14:18] semis are driving everything, then it
[14:19] makes it hard. So I think the retail
[14:21] crowd is going to have to be brought in
[14:22] at some point. I'm not really sure what
[14:24] the the catalyst will be at this point,
[14:27] but catalyst short-term tend to play
[14:29] out. The only thing that needs to happen
[14:30] is there needs to be something that
[14:32] moves Bitcoin.
[14:34] We we go in these stages. First it was
[14:36] 74. We got above 74. Now we keep pushing
[14:38] up to 80 and we keep falling back. I do
[14:40] think there's an underlying bid which
[14:42] will continue to push it. I talked about
[14:44] how I had been buying things and I
[14:45] bought some call options on
[14:46] MicroStrategy and the reason is
[14:48] because I do believe that in the second
[14:50] half of the year you're going to start
[14:52] to get money that's moving into this
[14:53] space.
[14:54] I think it's coming soon, but again, I
[14:56] agree with you that I hear the same
[14:58] thing. I didn't hear it at my
[14:59] conferences, but mine was pension event
[15:01] and then it was I went to a second
[15:03] conference and spoke and this one was
[15:05] more for market structure people in the
[15:07] TradFi world.
[15:09] Uh not everyone is talking about it, but
[15:10] one of the topics that did come up in
[15:12] both events was tokenization. So I think
[15:15] tokenization is a place where you can
[15:17] get some enthusiasm about the market
[15:19] starting to embrace this and I did have
[15:20] a conversation with a senior person um
[15:23] at one of the organizations in crypto
[15:25] and we spent most of the time talking
[15:26] about tokenization as well. Today's
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[16:14] me there. So, this past week was the
[16:16] 5-year anniversary of Franklin
[16:18] Templeton's Benji fund, right? Which is
[16:21] kind of the first tokenized thing that I
[16:22] think really was the first tokenized
[16:23] thing from a major financial
[16:25] organization. And there's some people
[16:26] who like tokenization, don't like
[16:28] tokenization, whatever. But,
[16:30] Sandy Call, who runs a lot of the crypto
[16:32] business there, was telling me,
[16:34] "You know, look, this was kind of the
[16:35] first foray. It's been 5 years, but they
[16:37] are very aggressively looking for what
[16:38] are the other opportunities that they
[16:40] can go into." And I think that they look
[16:42] at it as they're really modernizing
[16:44] themselves, their products, etc. And so,
[16:46] if you go back, that is really kind of
[16:49] my thesis. And I I I was explaining to
[16:51] you earlier, it feels to me like we are
[16:53] living through a modern-day industrial
[16:55] revolution, where we are laying the
[16:56] infrastructure, we are laying all of the
[17:00] kind of foundations for the next
[17:01] century. And it sounds kind of bombastic
[17:03] when you say that, but the last 100
[17:06] years or so was really driven by the
[17:08] original industrial revolution. We laid
[17:10] all this stuff, we were able to build on
[17:12] top of it, and we built this amazing
[17:13] economy and society.
[17:15] There is change happening right now. We
[17:17] are upgrading, and we are automating and
[17:19] we are, you know, electrifying, etc.
[17:22] To me, if I had to sum up, why is the
[17:24] stock market continue to go up
[17:26] regardless of what happens in the
[17:27] conflict in Iran and all this stuff, it
[17:29] is that there are
[17:31] tens of millions, hundreds of millions
[17:32] of people around the world that want to
[17:34] own a piece of the future. And they
[17:36] realize that right now in this
[17:38] industrial revolution, I got to buy
[17:40] something. And whether that is the large
[17:42] tech companies, whether that's a
[17:43] commodities, you know, oriented firm,
[17:45] whatever the thing is, however they want
[17:46] to play it, there is just this wave of
[17:48] capital that will not stop coming into
[17:50] the market because everyone realizes,
[17:53] oh shoot, there this change is going to
[17:55] be where all the returns are for the
[17:57] next, you know, decade or so. And I
[17:58] think that you've been calling this out
[18:00] in different ways now for, you know,
[18:01] months if not over a year.
[18:03] So, here's the interesting thing about
[18:05] this. Um and very few people, if anyone
[18:07] I've ever heard say this.
[18:09] So, let's go back actually before the
[18:11] great financial crisis and let's make
[18:12] that the demarcation line because the
[18:14] iPhone came out in the exact same time
[18:16] period. So, that was the beginning of my
[18:20] entrée of connecting exponential
[18:22] innovation to macro and how it would
[18:24] disrupt the macro world and we'd never
[18:26] have a recession again. And so, when I
[18:28] say that, people kind of gloss over and
[18:29] they go, "Yeah, we won't." And And I've
[18:30] said it repeatedly and it's been true.
[18:32] The only recession we had since the
[18:33] great financial crisis
[18:35] was COVID, which was self-induced and
[18:37] was not a traditional recession. A
[18:40] recession happens because the credit
[18:43] dries up and what had happened in the
[18:46] past is all of those consumer {slash}
[18:48] industrial related things start to roll
[18:50] over and it becomes an issue. Even the
[18:51] dot-com bubble was driven to some degree
[18:54] by overspending and debt and just taking
[18:57] out tons of debt to build for the
[18:58] future.
[18:59] What is different about what happened
[19:01] from 2009 to 2000, let's just say to
[19:04] 2024 before we start getting into this
[19:06] year,
[19:07] the biggest companies in the world grew
[19:10] without taking any debt. So, the Mag 7
[19:12] became the Mag 7 with no debt. That had
[19:13] never happened before. And, although
[19:16] they hired people, they did not hire as
[19:18] many people as the companies before. So,
[19:20] if you looked at those companies and
[19:22] their revenue per employee versus the
[19:24] rest of the S&P 500, I mean, the numbers
[19:26] were off the charts. So, that's the way
[19:28] software grew, that's the way the Mag 7
[19:29] grew. So, now we're at a different
[19:30] stage. Are they taking out some debt?
[19:32] Yes. But, these companies are 20-plus
[19:35] trillion dollars of market cap. They're
[19:37] only spending, you know, let's let's
[19:39] let's let's round it up to a trillion,
[19:41] even though it's going to be about 800
[19:43] billion this year for those companies. A
[19:44] trillion dollars on 20-some-odd trillion
[19:47] dollars of market cap? That's not
[19:49] leveraging yourself. So, everyone who's
[19:51] had this doom and gloom is not paying
[19:53] attention to what you're saying, which
[19:54] is you're fading money that's flowing
[19:57] in. This is not about retail driving
[19:58] this higher. This is about literally
[20:00] money coming, number one,
[20:03] from these companies and their equity.
[20:04] But, there's another thing.
[20:06] We're not creating jobs.
[20:08] If you create jobs, well, then your
[20:10] compensation grows. That's an expense.
[20:12] If you don't create jobs and your and
[20:14] your revenue's growing 7% a year, that's
[20:16] margins. Well, we have record margins in
[20:17] the S&P. Everyone wants to fade that.
[20:19] They're worried about, "Oh, the doom and
[20:21] gloom like Citrini writing, we'll lose
[20:22] all these jobs." We're not losing all
[20:23] these jobs. We're just not hiring people
[20:26] anymore. So, you're breaking the
[20:27] framework of what used to be that old
[20:30] industrial consumer relationship. We buy
[20:33] more, you guys build more, we have a
[20:34] recession, then we go through this, the
[20:36] government gives money, they cut rates.
[20:38] We don't have that anymore. So, when
[20:40] Iran when tariffs happen, we don't go
[20:42] into recession. When Iran happens and
[20:44] oil spikes, everyone freaks out. The
[20:46] doom oil situation on X is unbelievable.
[20:49] Now, I do believe inflation's going to
[20:51] come, but unfortunately, what that's
[20:52] doing is it's hurting the bottom end of
[20:54] the economy again.
[20:56] They're not able I mean, rates are
[20:58] moving higher. Inflation expectations
[21:00] are moving higher. Gas at the pumps
[21:02] moving higher. Diesel's moving higher.
[21:04] Fertilizers driving food higher. There's
[21:06] no way to get around it. And for people
[21:08] that are living quote unquote pay
[21:09] paycheck to paycheck that don't have
[21:11] assets, they're in the same boat that
[21:13] they've been in before to some degree.
[21:14] Now, jobs in the middle part of the
[21:16] country are definitely in a better
[21:17] situation. You're seeing growth there.
[21:19] You're hearing it from a lot of the
[21:20] people talking. But I do want to make
[21:21] sure people realize what you said is
[21:23] important. This is a completely
[21:25] different economy and we are in the very
[21:27] very early stages. I mean, it's year
[21:30] four
[21:31] of chat GPT. Like we just started year
[21:33] four post chat GPT launch. And all the
[21:36] first three years were about getting the
[21:38] IQ up. This is the agentic side. So
[21:40] digital employees are getting hired,
[21:41] which means profit margins are going to
[21:43] stay at these levels and you guys need
[21:45] to be invested to some degree in the AI
[21:46] trade and not worry about this bubble.
[21:49] When you see something like Jerome
[21:51] Powell and FOMC decide to leave rates
[21:54] flat, um
[21:55] there is immense amount of debate
[21:57] online. And I think that if I was to do
[22:00] my best to objectively describe the two
[22:02] arguments, one is hey, all these
[22:04] inflationary pressures uh give the Fed
[22:07] pause and therefore they're worried
[22:09] about inflation coming back in a big
[22:10] way, so they shouldn't be cutting
[22:11] interest rates. The other side is hey,
[22:14] wait a second, all these inflationary
[22:15] pressures are probably temporary to some
[22:17] degree. The structural thing is AI
[22:19] robotics etc. and there's deflation
[22:21] coming.
[22:23] How do you evaluate what the Fed is
[22:25] doing, what they should be doing, and
[22:27] maybe even like the uh the language
[22:29] they're using around their their
[22:31] decision-making?
[22:34] Okay, I I
[22:38] There's two things going. So I'm going
[22:39] to connect Jerome Powell this week with
[22:42] the Musk Altman
[22:44] court case, okay?
[22:46] Um the TMZ situation, you mean?
[22:48] >> Yeah.
[22:49] This is all part of the fourth turning.
[22:51] All of it. Um
[22:53] You've reached a point where politics
[22:55] are part of everything. Politics are
[22:56] part of the Fed decision-making.
[22:58] Jerome Powell decides he's not going to
[23:00] step down
[23:01] to keep the voting I mean you can't make
[23:03] this stuff up that we're at this point
[23:05] where you have let's tax the
[23:07] billionaires let's run it hot like you
[23:10] have a bifurcated situation that is
[23:13] polarized where
[23:14] everyone's angry about it on the same
[23:16] side. How do you pick a jury for the
[23:18] Elon Musk case?
[23:20] I mean is there anyone like Elon Musk
[23:21] except for the two of us?
[23:23] I
[23:24] he he he pissed off the Democrats he
[23:26] pissed off the Republicans maybe the
[23:28] only person who is less liked than Elon
[23:30] in California is Sam Altman.
[23:33] There you go. It's two it's two people
[23:34] fighting on this. You've got Dario on
[23:37] one side of the AI. You have everyone
[23:39] else that's going up and and like it's
[23:41] it's become a a very uh
[23:44] polarized situation that extends far
[23:46] beyond just
[23:48] the polls. It is everything that's going
[23:51] on in every decision-making
[23:53] being made. People can't get their
[23:54] political bias out of the decision. So I
[23:56] think when you go through the Fed
[23:57] situation Kevin Warsh is going to take
[23:59] out How how do you run what is
[24:02] effectively an insane asylum now? So it
[24:04] begs the question though if everything
[24:06] is politicized should you just put
[24:08] political people in because they
[24:09] actually have experience operating that
[24:11] environment?
[24:13] Like that that scares me to say like if
[24:14] if that is what we would do if all of a
[24:16] sudden like politicians were running the
[24:17] Fed I would be very even more nervous
[24:20] than I already am but if everything gets
[24:22] politicized do you just ask people who
[24:25] have no experience to deal with the
[24:26] situation or what what do you do?
[24:28] I
[24:30] I'm so scared of politics and I remember
[24:32] after the great financial crisis that a
[24:34] few people tried to get me to run for
[24:36] some office and I and I said no
[24:38] Yeah I know I know it's very nice of
[24:40] you.
[24:41] I'll do the same for you when you run.
[24:43] You you dress for the run. I I can't you
[24:45] know my my my jean shirts and stuff
[24:47] they're not going to work so well in in
[24:49] in Washington.
[24:50] >> You never know there's crazier things
[24:51] that have happened. John Fetterman wears
[24:53] a Carhartt sweatshirt and he's doing
[24:54] just fine.
[24:55] >> That's true there's always there's
[24:56] always things but I'm me. Like, I don't
[24:58] pretend to be anything but me. And I
[25:01] think politics have just reached a point
[25:03] where
[25:04] I just know that nothing can get done.
[25:06] And this is the one thing about
[25:07] artificial intelligence. It's the thing
[25:09] about crypto that I believe in. I don't
[25:11] know how this year is going to play out.
[25:13] I do know that markets do not go up in a
[25:15] straight line forever.
[25:17] Uh they have corrections. Even in the
[25:19] great years of 2010 to 2020 when rates
[25:22] were at zero, we had corrections.
[25:24] Uh it just happens. The best thing for
[25:26] Bitcoin would be if a correction happens
[25:29] because of inflation breaking higher,
[25:31] and then people kind of changing their
[25:32] views, a little move down in the in the
[25:34] equity market for 3 months, all of a
[25:36] sudden
[25:37] crypto's working and people go to it. I
[25:39] I think for politics and for what this
[25:41] is going to play out, I don't think this
[25:43] is going away, and I think this is why
[25:45] I'm actually attracted to saying the
[25:47] fourth turning. I think that the the
[25:49] reality of the fourth turning is no
[25:50] matter how
[25:52] no matter how you look at it.
[25:54] Um when I was out in California, I read
[25:56] a story about the closure of some
[25:59] very famous store in Napa Valley.
[26:03] And I've heard a lot about how bad
[26:06] wine sales are,
[26:08] especially high-end wine sales. And part
[26:10] of the reason is
[26:12] the demographic shift, part of the
[26:13] reason is the Ozempic.
[26:15] It's It's a variety of things. I think
[26:18] when you go through all of the
[26:19] distribution of wealth problems and the
[26:21] the health differentials between wealthy
[26:24] people and their You You You kind of
[26:27] You see it. You don't think about it,
[26:28] but I think it shows up in all politics,
[26:30] and I don't think it's going away cuz I
[26:31] don't think you solve these problems
[26:32] quickly. I think the fourth turning
[26:34] means we're going to be in this
[26:35] demographic problem for another decade,
[26:38] especially when you bring humanoids into
[26:39] it, especially when you bring all of the
[26:41] things that we're talking about. I just
[26:42] don't think this problem is going away
[26:44] quickly. So, I'm going to pull this up.
[26:46] Did you see uh
[26:48] what happened
[26:49] uh recently? It's supposedly
[26:53] um
[26:54] there's a surge in what people are
[26:56] calling Ozempic breath.
[26:59] So, there the rise of use of GLP-1
[27:02] weight loss drugs like Ozempic have led
[27:04] to a surge in demand for mints and gum.
[27:08] And it's a phenomenon driven by a side
[27:09] effect called Ozempic breath. Now, why
[27:11] that's interesting. Hershey CEO Kirk
[27:14] Tanner reported an 8% increase in sales
[27:16] of their Ice Breakers mints and gum in
[27:18] the first quarter of 2026 largely to
[27:21] users managing GLP-1 side effects.
[27:24] And I I saw this yesterday and I had to
[27:26] go look it up to make sure it was true
[27:28] cuz you never know these days.
[27:30] That blew my mind.
[27:31] Hershey's, which is it's not like it's a
[27:33] new product 8% growth.
[27:36] And so it goes back to what I'm talking
[27:37] about AI. Okay, like there's demand for
[27:39] synthetic intelligence and then what are
[27:40] all the downstream effects?
[27:42] Who there's some manager out there who
[27:44] decided, you know what? I took a GLP-1,
[27:46] I have bad breath, I'm using mints. I
[27:48] wonder if other people are doing this.
[27:50] Right? And they probably figured it out.
[27:51] But when I saw that data point, I just
[27:53] said we are living in a whole different
[27:54] world than I grew up investing it. And
[27:57] so when you see this happening over and
[27:59] over and over again, you start to
[28:00] realize
[28:02] technology is now the barrier to using
[28:05] it has dropped so significantly.
[28:08] Somebody in our office who will go
[28:09] unnamed said to me the other day, in
[28:11] what world is it that in 2020 and 2021
[28:16] people refused to take
[28:18] the vaccine
[28:20] but they are happy to take
[28:22] peptides that they get from a lab in
[28:23] China.
[28:25] They're both inject right? So, you get
[28:26] into this world of like we are living in
[28:28] this crazy situation where how it's
[28:32] presented, who's behind it, what how do
[28:34] you learn about it? Like that actually
[28:35] may be more important than like will you
[28:37] inject this in your body? Because
[28:39] there's a hell of a lot of people using
[28:40] GLP-1s and peptides and you know all
[28:42] this kind of crazy stuff.
[28:43] But those same exact people and like
[28:45] there's probably a pretty big overlap.
[28:46] >> Yeah. The peptide crowd was the anti-vax
[28:48] crowd.
[28:50] And then, you know, of course, when I
[28:51] say this online, somebody's like, "Well,
[28:52] like, were the anti-vax people right?"
[28:54] But, you know, and you get into this
[28:55] like whole crazy debate, but it all goes
[28:56] back to it's politicized.
[28:58] A lot of the conversation was just
[29:00] politics.
[29:02] I I It's not something I
[29:05] So, here's the bad thing. Uh
[29:07] politics does not drive any of my
[29:08] decision-making.
[29:10] But,
[29:11] it does with
[29:14] many of my children. Mhm.
[29:17] So, I've had to learn to just accept, um
[29:19] because unconditional love for my kids,
[29:22] they can do whatever they want. They can
[29:24] attack me for being non-political and
[29:26] not raising my voice and going to
[29:28] protest on this part or this part. They
[29:30] can say they're never going to
[29:32] leave a particular area or live here or
[29:34] whatever.
[29:35] And I just have to embrace them as my
[29:37] children and let them go through it. I I
[29:39] We've talked about it before. I'll bring
[29:40] it up again.
[29:42] Um this is the reason why I love reading
[29:44] The Daily Stoic.
[29:46] Uh
[29:46] human beings and their anxiety, their
[29:49] beliefs,
[29:51] they change. They are whatever they are.
[29:55] And it's been that way since we finally
[29:57] were able to think and have these
[29:59] thoughts. So, to read The Daily Stoic
[30:01] and just go back to Marcus Aurelius and
[30:02] realize that this person back during the
[30:05] Roman Empire writing about these things
[30:07] was writing about the same issues we're
[30:08] talking about now. And so, politics has
[30:11] always been a part of the way people
[30:12] think about things cuz there's always
[30:14] someone winning and there's always
[30:15] someone losing. And with human beings,
[30:17] we have an animalistic side where we
[30:18] care about how we're winning and we care
[30:19] about how we're losing. I figured this
[30:21] out very quickly when I started managing
[30:24] people.
[30:25] And I was shocked. And the story that
[30:27] you hear is true.
[30:29] I don't care what I get paid as long as
[30:30] I get paid $1 more than the person
[30:32] sitting next to me. And I I I hate to
[30:34] say, like, if people are listening to
[30:36] us, that's not true. It is true. And I I
[30:38] remember it and as someone who's the son
[30:40] of a construction worker, that when I
[30:42] got to Morgan Stanley in that first year
[30:43] I made $40,000, I was like, "If I ever
[30:46] get $100,000, I'm set for life." And it
[30:48] literally that was what my brain was
[30:50] because I didn't know any better. I
[30:51] mean, my father didn't graduate high
[30:53] school. So, for me, that was the way I
[30:55] was going to go through it. So, to hear
[30:56] someone who went to an Ivy League school
[30:58] push back a paper to me when I knew they
[31:00] were getting paid more than 99.9% of the
[31:02] people on the planet, it just kind of it
[31:05] it made me realize that it's not just
[31:06] politics, it's money, it's all the
[31:08] things you hear about. And I just
[31:11] realized that human beings do this stuff
[31:13] and it just goes on. So, rather than go
[31:14] through it, our job is to try and figure
[31:16] a way to stay sane, enjoy life
[31:19] in a happy, happy way. And part of that
[31:21] is to be able to make money. And the
[31:22] reason that we do the show is hopefully
[31:24] to bring some sort of unbiased view
[31:26] towards all of this stuff, bring it back
[31:28] in some light. But for me, I'm focused
[31:30] on helping people learn AI and
[31:33] make money based on it. If they can do
[31:35] those two things, I think they can
[31:36] navigate through a lot of the things
[31:38] we're talking about because those things
[31:41] will give you empowerment in your job.
[31:42] They will give you empowerment in
[31:44] building things and having more time in
[31:45] life and enjoying it, but they will also
[31:47] give you some more time in terms of
[31:48] making money and being involved in
[31:49] things that maybe you can't get from the
[31:51] work world. So, remember, there's
[31:52] different ways to accumulate money. Some
[31:54] is by investing and being in the right
[31:56] theme, some is by working hard and doing
[31:59] things that other people aren't doing.
[32:01] 90 plus percent of people that I meet do
[32:03] not use AI in any way outside of chat. I
[32:07] would say 99%
[32:09] don't go past a little bit of co-work.
[32:11] I'm going to do a video because now we
[32:13] haven't talked about this. There are
[32:15] three things on Claude. For those of you
[32:18] who have Claude, I want you to go look
[32:20] at this later on today.
[32:22] You've got chat,
[32:23] collaborating, brainstorming with
[32:25] something really, really smart. Great.
[32:27] Then you've got co-work. That's your
[32:29] assistant. That's your productivity
[32:30] enhancer. Learn one special thing on it
[32:33] to do it. And I'm going to do a video
[32:34] that'll be very short on those two. But,
[32:36] then there's code.
[32:38] That's building. That's actually
[32:40] creating something new. That's something
[32:42] that doesn't exist. So, I think if
[32:44] people do that, they will be ahead of
[32:46] 95%
[32:48] of the people. If they can do all three
[32:49] of those in just one way every single
[32:51] day, those types of things you don't get
[32:53] those opportunities too much in life.
[32:55] So, there's two ways to look at this.
[32:56] One is the world is kind of in trouble.
[32:57] The second one is people are so blinded
[32:59] by politics and so blinded by this
[33:02] that just like when you're trying to
[33:03] compete in athletics,
[33:04] if no one's really focused on working
[33:06] out, you can go do it. Go work out on AI
[33:08] and forget some of this stuff. I have
[33:10] something that me, you, and your kids
[33:12] are all going to be on the same page
[33:14] for.
[33:15] I would like to create a protest that
[33:17] you and I are going to lead. We're going
[33:18] to be the co-conspirators of this
[33:20] protest. Do you remember the guy
[33:23] who I think he ran for like a a local
[33:25] politician seat a couple years ago and
[33:26] it became a meme and he would yell, "The
[33:28] rent is too damn high." Remember that
[33:30] guy? Yep. All right. You and I are going
[33:31] to lead a protest that the token prices
[33:33] are too damn high.
[33:36] These guys are ratcheting up the price,
[33:38] right? I see it. They're announcing it
[33:40] sometimes, but you can see that, okay,
[33:42] the VC subsidies are slowly starting to
[33:45] dissipate and no different than the Uber
[33:47] that was $3 to get across town is now
[33:49] 30. Yep. Token prices are starting to go
[33:51] up. And so, token prices are too damn
[33:54] high. We should create a protest to keep
[33:56] them down and and artificially suppress
[33:58] for a little bit longer. Yep. Now, it's
[34:01] So, it's happening and we've been warned
[34:04] about this by
[34:05] the model providers. Um
[34:09] Nvidia, one of their senior executives
[34:11] said this week or last week at a
[34:13] conference,
[34:14] the price of compute has now reached a
[34:17] point where it's more expensive than
[34:19] a human employee.
[34:21] Now, narrative violation. Yeah. Now,
[34:23] what I would say is
[34:26] there's two things about the statement.
[34:28] Number one, for each employee,
[34:31] you have how many digital employees? So,
[34:34] it it doesn't mean that people aren't
[34:36] going to lose their jobs. Uh it doesn't
[34:38] mean that they aren't going to pay for
[34:40] it. What it does mean
[34:42] is that for people like you and me using
[34:44] it at home,
[34:46] if Morgan Stanley wants to compute,
[34:48] they're willing to pay more money than I
[34:49] am.
[34:50] They have more money to pay. And so, the
[34:52] price is going higher for those
[34:54] computes, and it's much harder for
[34:55] someone like me or an entrepreneur to
[34:58] compete on price,
[35:00] unless, again, we don't have as many
[35:02] employees, unless we are able to move to
[35:05] open source and move in some of the
[35:06] Chinese models, and that's the way I've
[35:08] run my business. I use
[35:11] And we haven't talked about this.
[35:12] ChatGPT 5.5 has taken over much of my
[35:15] Claude at this point. I didn't think
[35:17] that would ever happen. I thought I was
[35:19] in Claude for the rest of time. Um it
[35:21] stole back most of the time.
[35:23] Changed it. So, I'm using
[35:25] >> 5 5.5 5.5. The one the model that came
[35:28] out last week. Um just
[35:30] What what what when you say it's stolen
[35:32] back most of your time and and you're
[35:33] using it and it's better, what faster?
[35:36] You think it's more accurate? What what
[35:37] is specific?
[35:38] >> Um first of all, smarter. Okay. And that
[35:41] may sound funny to people who don't know
[35:42] the know a difference. When you use them
[35:45] as much as I do,
[35:47] smarter means not as verbose, meaning
[35:50] you type something in, I get a quick
[35:52] response, and the response is succinct.
[35:55] It gives me the answer I want. You don't
[35:57] understand how valuable that is, but for
[35:59] a lot
[35:59] >> Yeah, and and if if you get an answer
[36:02] that's really long, and you have to go
[36:04] read the whole thing, it's literally
[36:06] becomes, like I said, book is a waste of
[36:08] time. Uh oh, people had opinions.
[36:11] >> Oh, people had opinions, exactly. It was
[36:12] very very funny. So,
[36:14] >> But but I will say, a lot of people
[36:15] actually agreed with you. Yeah, and and
[36:16] again, I I I I was at a dinner the other
[36:19] night, and I named like seven books, and
[36:21] someone said, "I thought you said books
[36:23] are a waste of time."
[36:24] >> going to say, you say you read the Daily
[36:25] Stoic, but go ahead.
[36:25] >> Yeah.
[36:26] I read a page in it. I'm I'm not saying
[36:28] reading is a waste of time. I'm saying
[36:29] reading a whole book is a waste of time.
[36:31] Reading a chapter is not a waste I could
[36:33] get him going real fast. All right, go
[36:34] ahead. Go keep going.
[36:36] Um it's smarter. It gives more succinct
[36:39] answers. It makes it easier to have a
[36:40] conversation and move forward. Number
[36:42] two, Claude has the three buttons. Mhm.
[36:45] Codex, it's really one thing. Mhm. The
[36:47] imaging on it, if you haven't tried the
[36:49] imaging people,
[36:51] I've used Nano Banana exclusively for
[36:54] I don't remember I don't remember when
[36:55] it came out it was this good. I had 9
[36:57] months ago. Mhm. I have not used Nano
[36:59] Banana since Chat GPT 5.5 came out. And
[37:02] I do so many images cuz that's the way I
[37:05] like to learn. And when I presented at
[37:07] this pension event, I had eight slides.
[37:09] They were all images and half of them
[37:11] were ones I created because the imaging
[37:13] is so good. Now, the reason that's
[37:15] important is because the imaging can is
[37:17] built into this whole thing. So, if you
[37:19] want to have it
[37:21] if you want to create a prompt library
[37:22] and you go into Codex, "Hey, I want to
[37:23] create a prompt library cuz I have like
[37:25] 100 prompts that are sitting in notion.
[37:28] It
[37:29] immediately gives you a
[37:31] unbelievable visual of what it can look
[37:34] like. That is something that Claude does
[37:36] not do. So, having these abilities to go
[37:39] through it, it's not an image thing and
[37:40] this is a big thing. Like there's no
[37:42] image. You got Nano Banana and now you
[37:44] have GPT 5. So, the imaging part for
[37:46] what I do for my business is very very
[37:49] important. But, I think for everyone
[37:51] to be able to look at something as
[37:53] opposed to this verbose thing is very
[37:55] very important. So, I I've just used it
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[40:09] Claude kind of took the wor- uh world by
[40:11] storm right now. As reported, they have
[40:13] more revenue, they're 30 billion run
[40:14] rate. Uh OpenAI is only like 24 billion
[40:16] if those numbers are right. Um
[40:19] Now, ChatGPT 5.5 comes out all of a
[40:21] sudden, there's some shift back. Are we
[40:23] going to just enter a world where you're
[40:24] going to have to have multiple
[40:25] subscriptions for these, and then
[40:27] whoever kind of comes out with the best
[40:28] model at any given time, you shift your
[40:30] work
[40:31] uh, flow, or do you think people will
[40:33] get locked into kind of a
[40:35] winner-take-all for their work? May not
[40:37] be winner-take-all in the market, but
[40:38] you know, you're a ChatGPT user, I'm a
[40:40] Claude user, and regardless of one of
[40:42] the models being better or worse, like I
[40:44] just get used to using that product.
[40:46] See, I think it depends on your business
[40:48] and and how you operate. I I use all
[40:50] five of them. So far today,
[40:53] I've used all five today. I mean, I it's
[40:55] it's early in the morning on a Friday.
[40:57] I've used every single model today.
[41:00] >> I've I've used uh, Grok, Claude,
[41:03] ChatGPT, and um,
[41:05] uh, Gemini all in the last 24 hours.
[41:07] Yeah. It's very seldom that I don't use
[41:08] all of them. It's It's very seldom in a
[41:10] day where I don't use all of them. Um,
[41:12] and yeah, it moves around. I mean, there
[41:14] was one point Perplexity I was using the
[41:15] most for what I was doing within
[41:17] finance. That's all changed now. So, it
[41:19] just depends, I guess, on on what you're
[41:22] doing and how it's going. I I just think
[41:24] that um, what I'm really good at because
[41:26] I use all of them is when there's a
[41:28] change in the model,
[41:31] I I I feel it. It's just different. And
[41:34] GPT-5 is just smarter. Now, in fairness,
[41:37] and David Sacks um, retweeted something
[41:40] about this. When you put them on a
[41:42] scale, Mythos and GPT-5 are very similar
[41:46] on a lot of the benchmarks. So, this is
[41:49] a Mythos thing. So,
[41:51] it's kind of like, why did
[41:54] Anthropic release Mythos
[41:56] and have this whole big to-do? Great
[41:59] marketing.
[42:00] It could be great marketing, or it could
[42:02] also be we don't have enough compute
[42:03] >> Well, that that's uh, that's the White
[42:05] House's argument. Um, I saw David Sacks
[42:08] talking about this idea of like,
[42:10] it's good, but there's many other
[42:12] models, you know, that have similar uh,
[42:15] capabilities. And if they came out and
[42:18] said we don't have the compute, would
[42:20] that actually hurt
[42:22] Anthropic? And so the better thing to do
[42:24] is say, "Oh, it's too powerful."
[42:26] I don't know. I'm I'm not in the room,
[42:27] right? But it's very interesting to
[42:29] think about. There is like a global
[42:32] chess game going on with trillions of
[42:35] dollars that are being wagered on who's
[42:37] going to win, how they're going to win.
[42:38] And we've done all of this talking about
[42:40] infrastructure, whatever.
[42:43] The the the dark knight of Elon and XAI
[42:47] and Terafab and all this. Yep. They're
[42:49] kind of just building. And it sounds
[42:51] weird to say, but like Elon's kind of
[42:52] building it quietly.
[42:54] People are not really talking about it
[42:56] in the way that you would think that
[42:57] they would be.
[42:58] And it feels like he's just going to
[42:59] turn this thing on. And all of a sudden
[43:01] he'll suck a lot of the attention and
[43:03] and usage back over. And so we just keep
[43:06] getting in this game where everyone just
[43:07] keeps leapfrogging each other. And
[43:09] outside of the increasing costs, like
[43:10] the winners are the consumers. Yeah.
[43:12] They I I mean, again, even for
[43:16] I pay for all five at the max level. Um
[43:19] my business is growing. I'm helping
[43:21] people. And the only way that I can do
[43:23] it in a way that gives people the tools
[43:26] they need, in my opinion, to be
[43:27] successful
[43:28] is to use all the models. I just think
[43:31] that all the models are different. And I
[43:32] will say one more thing about 5.5.
[43:35] Uh
[43:37] I had a lot of problems with Claude
[43:41] I I don't want to call them
[43:42] hallucinations, but let's just say fill
[43:43] in the the blank. Mhm.
[43:47] I got a lot of that. Um where the
[43:49] answers were wrong and I had I'd put it
[43:52] into my academic checker, which I've
[43:54] always said is Gemini. Hey, check these
[43:56] out. Uh this is wrong. This is a bold
[43:59] claim. And I'd have to go back and
[44:00] change it. Now, I had a process for it.
[44:02] GPT-5, I do the same thing. The stuff I
[44:05] did this week, no errors. Mhm. Like
[44:08] if there was an error, it was because I
[44:10] didn't do the prompt properly to give it
[44:12] the instructions.
[44:14] I think the hallucinations for this
[44:16] thing are are are just insanely low. So,
[44:18] that's why I say
[44:20] if you haven't played around with it,
[44:21] it's smarter. And if you use any of the
[44:24] other models a lot,
[44:26] I think this one is just as fast as what
[44:29] Grok was. And that probably means that
[44:31] this one is out because of Blackwell.
[44:34] And it might be the first true like
[44:36] Blackwell advanced model. Uh where I
[44:39] don't think Claude is going to have that
[44:41] capability. I think they've already
[44:43] shown that they're going to be doing
[44:44] stuff on TPUs. They made these deals
[44:45] with Amazon and with Google. Uh so, I I
[44:49] think we're at a stage where the
[44:50] leapfrogging will continue.
[44:52] But I think we've also reached a point
[44:54] where the intelligence on these things
[44:55] is so good that it doesn't matter much
[44:56] anymore. Did you see that the internal
[44:58] memo from Zuck? He made mention to the
[45:00] fact that uh you know, they're
[45:02] screenshotting the employees and
[45:03] recording their screens uh for the
[45:05] workflow. And there was reference to the
[45:07] fact that the average Facebook employee
[45:09] likely has a higher IQ than the
[45:11] contractors that the other firms are
[45:13] using for training data. And he thinks
[45:14] that will give them an advantage.
[45:20] It's just amazing how seldom I even say
[45:22] meta. It's just uh or Facebook or
[45:25] whatever they want to be called now.
[45:26] >> Do you think that's because they're so
[45:27] far behind? Or do you think that they're
[45:29] not doing a good job marketing? Or do
[45:30] you think you just don't use their
[45:31] products? Like why is it that they don't
[45:33] come up in conversation?
[45:35] Uh well, they're clearly I mean, at the
[45:37] beginning
[45:39] I mentioned Llama all the time.
[45:41] I don't even know if Llama is the model
[45:43] there. I like I
[45:44] it's just reached a point where it's
[45:46] because they don't have anything that I
[45:48] use. Mhm. Um and I use all the other
[45:51] ones all day long. All day long. I mean,
[45:53] open claw changed my life on this trip.
[45:56] I've been using it a lot, but I was on a
[45:59] JetBlue flight. Shout out JetBlue.
[46:02] >> Great Wi-Fi. Yeah, no free ads. Yeah.
[46:05] Everything was great and I was having a
[46:08] brainstorming session with Open Claw.
[46:11] The entire time. And this was on my
[46:14] model portfolio. And what I realized at
[46:16] this point was
[46:18] before I left, I uploaded a lot of
[46:20] stuff, so it has all the memory.
[46:21] >> Mhm. And the ability to have a
[46:23] conversation and say, "Hey, of the
[46:25] thematic model portfolio, what's the
[46:27] average market cap of semis? What's the
[46:30] largest market cap? Okay, how many of
[46:32] the names are up year-to-date through
[46:33] Friday? Okay, how many of the names have
[46:35] a PE of X?" I can do all this stuff and
[46:38] it's instantly like giving me the
[46:40] answers because it has all the data that
[46:42] I uploaded. So, this is a a thing that I
[46:45] can't do in a context window on a plane
[46:48] for ChatGPT and for all of these. Like,
[46:50] this is phenomenal stuff. And then when
[46:52] I have it, I brainstorm with it and say,
[46:54] "Okay, save this. I want to do this."
[46:57] So, I wanted to do a long-form paper on
[46:59] chemicals, which I ended up doing. And I
[47:01] gave the way that I want to approach cuz
[47:02] my argument, and this is So, everyone's
[47:04] watching and they get this.
[47:06] The way that I brainstorm with this
[47:07] stuff is I come up with the a crazy
[47:09] thought. And my crazy thought was,
[47:12] "Okay, oil's clearly not having an
[47:14] impact on the economy the way it used
[47:16] to."
[47:18] Chemicals are. Like, we need a lot of
[47:20] chemicals for advanced packaging, for
[47:23] fiber. So, I literally said, "If we
[47:25] continue to see the growth we're seeing
[47:27] in AI, which doesn't consume a lot of
[47:29] oil,
[47:30] it needs power, but the electricity is
[47:33] not being generated by oil. And we're
[47:35] not transferring much as much in
[47:37] trucking and stuff like that. Is this
[47:39] going to be a world where chemicals
[47:40] could be an increasing part of GDP
[47:43] intensity? Which means I want to invest
[47:45] in them relative to other sectors." And
[47:47] we had this long brainstorming session
[47:49] while on the plane. And then when I got
[47:51] off, I extended it into the LLMs. So,
[47:53] I'm going to write a paper on this. And
[47:55] that's the way that like I take a
[47:56] thought that pops into my head that I
[47:58] think I want explanation on because the
[48:00] chemical names are doing so well and the
[48:02] auto names are doing fine. They're good,
[48:04] but I think they're like 15% to 20% a
[48:07] year performers, which is better than
[48:08] the S&P, but maybe not as bad as as as
[48:11] good as chemicals specifically tied to
[48:13] semiconductors. It's very interesting to
[48:15] me that um
[48:16] you've been going to a lot of these
[48:18] institutional events. You went to a
[48:19] pension fund event this past week and um
[48:22] the same conversation that's happening
[48:23] on the internet seems to be a couple
[48:25] weeks delayed in these meetings when you
[48:27] tell me you know kind of things that
[48:28] you're either hearing people talk about,
[48:30] things you're learning or whatever. Um
[48:32] and so one that's a hey, if you're on
[48:34] Twitter or reading, you know,
[48:35] newsletters, listening to podcasts, like
[48:37] you have an advantage because you're
[48:38] getting information faster. At the same
[48:40] time though,
[48:41] I do think I'm pretty impressed with it
[48:44] used to maybe be there was like a
[48:45] year-long lag before institutional
[48:47] investors got to something, but they've
[48:49] accelerated as well. And so if you told
[48:50] me that the lag used to be a year and
[48:52] now it's only 6 weeks,
[48:53] like they're catching up is my takeaway.
[48:56] Yeah, it Well, I think it's getting
[48:58] harder and harder, but I do think the
[49:00] arbitrage is is there. I I it it seems
[49:03] like forever because I wrote it over the
[49:05] weekend, but I published a paper Monday
[49:08] morning at 7:45 on power semiconductors,
[49:10] which was all related to a report I
[49:12] posted on on the subscriber thing on the
[49:14] edge devices. And this came from last
[49:17] week Texas Instruments report and Intel
[49:20] where they both highlighted the edge is
[49:22] coming. And then Qualcomm this week like
[49:25] it's coming. And when I say edge, that
[49:27] means autos, that means phones,
[49:29] computers, and humanoids. Like that part
[49:31] of the investment thesis is going to
[49:33] play. Now, that needs different
[49:34] semiconductors to some degree for the
[49:36] power side. So I wrote this thing on
[49:38] power semis.
[49:39] They're up over double digits this week.
[49:42] And again, this stuff goes so quickly
[49:45] because you're responding to something
[49:46] that happened in in in in the news and
[49:49] you're connecting it back to these other
[49:51] themes. What I did was I connected it
[49:53] back to a report from Nvidia over their
[49:55] need for data center equipment from
[49:57] South Korea for their new 800 volt DC
[50:02] power side, and they need power semis.
[50:05] So, I don't think
[50:07] I don't think sell side research from
[50:08] the banks can keep up with this. It's
[50:10] very, very hard because you have to be
[50:12] paying attention to the news around the
[50:13] globe, and to get that stuff, you're
[50:15] getting it from X. It's not like you can
[50:18] read the Wall Street Journal and the
[50:19] stuff is in there. It's in no
[50:20] newspapers. It is a story by a local
[50:22] person in Korea that puts it out. Maybe
[50:25] it's in Korean, you have to translate
[50:26] button, you get to see it.
[50:28] But, you and I stay on top of this
[50:29] stuff. I still believe there's enough of
[50:31] an arbitrage, but I think retail is
[50:33] ahead of the game in a big way because
[50:34] they see this stuff, and they just jump
[50:36] in they just jump in right away. 100%.
[50:39] Where can we send people to check out
[50:41] the work that you're doing with 22V and
[50:43] all of the different products that
[50:44] you're offering? Yeah, if if if they go
[50:46] to 22V research
[50:49] dot com, they will see an AI macro nexus
[50:52] button on the top. That's me. And if
[50:54] they go there, that's where they can get
[50:56] some of the things I referenced. If they
[50:58] go to the YouTube, they can still see
[51:00] see me going through the weekly kind of
[51:01] run down on things, and I will keep you
[51:04] up on what's happening. I am going to do
[51:06] a video, and I will figure out how it's
[51:08] going to go up on this thing I mentioned
[51:10] on Claude. And to those of you who've
[51:12] reached out, especially the kids in
[51:13] college,
[51:15] part of the goal is for you guys to use
[51:17] AI and realize how powerful it is.
[51:19] I mentioned my son,
[51:21] uh he is starting an internship, and uh
[51:25] his work that he's done
[51:27] in the last 4 months has blown me away.
[51:30] And this has all come from him spending
[51:32] more time on Claude. So, the way that
[51:35] I'm with GPT-5, I think most people
[51:37] should start with Claude, um
[51:39] and do the verticals one by one cuz you
[51:42] have to understand the computer
[51:43] architecture.
[51:44] And I'm trying to make sure that people
[51:46] understand where every day they can do
[51:48] these three things. How do I brainstorm
[51:49] with it on everything?
[51:51] How do I actually use it to be more
[51:53] efficient in my taxes, in my bank
[51:56] statements, in my kids bills, whatever
[51:58] it is. I I will show you how to do that.
[52:01] And then how do I build something? How
[52:02] do you build your first app for your
[52:04] workout routine, for your recipes?
[52:06] Doesn't really matter. Whatever part of
[52:07] your life, you need to build that first
[52:09] app and all you got to do is verbally
[52:10] speak into it. So if I show people how
[52:12] to do this and I keep it short and
[52:14] succinct. If you give that to your kids
[52:17] or you do it and then you get your kids,
[52:20] you show it to your kids. You do it. I
[52:21] think it's really important for the
[52:22] parents to both set an example, but also
[52:25] show how easy it is because the kids are
[52:27] not allowed to use it in most schools at
[52:29] or they're prevented from doing the
[52:30] things that I'm talking cuz they don't
[52:31] have access to this particular
[52:32] situation. So that's the main thing that
[52:35] I want people to get from when they come
[52:36] visit me and of course they can find me
[52:38] on LinkedIn, X and Substack. Everywhere.
[52:42] All right guys, talk to you next week.