The Liquidity Airpocket: Real Rates, Panic, and Bitcoin’s Flush

[0:05] and Bitcoin specifically, you had the JP
[0:07] Morgan um JP Morgan CEO and chairman
[0:10] Jamie Diamond calling it essentially pet
[0:12] rock and once again calling into
[0:14] question its worth and its value here. I
[0:17] would love to get your reaction,
[0:18] especially as some of the financial
[0:20] industry elites and and figureheads uh
[0:23] are continuing to cast some doubt here.
[0:26] >> Yeah, thanks for having me, Brad. Um,
[0:30] what do I think about Jeffrey Epstein's
[0:33] banker being concerned that a
[0:36] distributed decentralized open public
[0:38] money could potentially be used for bad
[0:40] things sitting on a ski resort in Davos?
[0:44] I don't really care. I don't know why
[0:46] anyone cares, right? I mean, that guy
[0:49] knows uh when money is used for bad
[0:51] things. So, I it's a weird opinion of
[0:53] his. and my pet rock was up, as you
[0:55] said, 160% last year. Uh it performed
[0:58] well against uh the dollar. So, I don't
[1:01] know. I don't really care what that guy
[1:03] has to say about Bitcoin. I don't know
[1:04] why anybody does
[1:06] >> when
[1:11] Yo,
[1:13] what is going on guys? Welcome back to
[1:17] another episode of the Jack Malers Show.
[1:21] I am your host, Jack. believe that
[1:24] you're listening to another episode of
[1:26] Mailbag Monday. Technically, you are
[1:29] listening to episode 93
[1:32] titled the liquidity airpocket, real
[1:35] rates, panic, and bitcoins flush.
[1:40] I am with family
[1:43] for the holidays for Thanksgiving. So,
[1:46] happy early Thanksgiving to those that
[1:49] celebrate. So, bear with me here. I've
[1:51] got a little makeshift desk in front of
[1:54] me. So, let me pull up the Bitcoin price
[1:58] because, ladies and gentlemen, I'm
[1:59] talking to you at a price of 88,720.
[2:05] That puts our market cap at 1.77
[2:08] trillion. Our all-time high remains at
[2:12] 126,160.
[2:14] We made that all-time high now 49 days
[2:16] ago on October 6, 2025.
[2:20] We are less than 30% off that high now.
[2:23] We are 29 a.5% off our all-time high.
[2:28] Bitcoin block height. What was the last
[2:31] Bitcoin block mined
[2:33] before I hit stream? It was Bitcoin
[2:37] block 925,57
[2:41] for those keeping time in Bitcoin block
[2:44] heights.
[2:46] How the hell are we doing?
[2:49] You guys panicked. You stressed.
[2:52] Bitcoin's crashing.
[2:54] AI's falling apart. The world's freaking
[2:57] out. Have no fear. The Jack Maler show
[3:02] is here. Hey, but I'm not a rapper or a
[3:05] podcaster. Uh, let's get into it, ladies
[3:08] and gentlemen. Chapter one,
[3:10] understanding Bitcoin's price action.
[3:13] So, Bitcoin found a low for now around
[3:17] $80,000. On the last show, I told you
[3:20] guys, you know, it could fall to 85. It
[3:23] could fall to 80. Could fall lower. I
[3:25] don't know. This is not the top. What
[3:29] 126 was not the top. It's not the end of
[3:31] the cycle. And so, we did find somewhat
[3:34] of a low for now around that $80,000
[3:38] number. We have since bounced quite a
[3:41] bit. There's a lot that has happened. I
[3:43] want to walk you guys through the data
[3:45] because a lot of people seem to have
[3:46] found value in my liquidity vantage
[3:49] point. How I was viewing the cycle, how
[3:51] far we are off from highs. I've been in
[3:53] Bitcoin for 13 years. I've seen 30%
[3:56] drops from highs and then we rally
[3:58] further. My favorite memory was in 2017.
[4:02] And [snorts] so, let's walk through it.
[4:03] I'm also
[4:05] um give me feedback on the mic. Last
[4:08] time I used my AirPods mic, it rubbed
[4:10] against my hoodie and you guys didn't
[4:12] like that. But I need both my hands to
[4:15] flip through my slides. So, I'm going to
[4:17] Should I just go shirtless? No. Kid
[4:20] show. Kid show. Let's see. Can I wrap it
[4:22] around my face like that? Too close to
[4:25] my mouth. Whatever. The show goes on.
[4:28] All right.
[4:30] Um, first slide. Supply distribution.
[4:33] And so this from the rational root
[4:36] more than 5% of all Bitcoin changed
[4:39] hands during this draw down.
[4:42] Guys,
[4:44] let me repeat that for you. More than 5%
[4:49] of the entire Bitcoin supply changed
[4:52] hands.
[4:54] Look at that spike between 83K and 86K.
[4:59] This guys is what we want to see. This
[5:02] is forced selling. This is panic
[5:05] selling. This is capitulation.
[5:07] It's very difficult for Bitcoin to
[5:09] continue to go lower and lower and lower
[5:12] and lower when you've seen this level of
[5:15] capitulation and distribution. Okay?
[5:19] Bitcoin is not slowly bleeding down.
[5:22] It's not struggling to find momentum. I
[5:26] fundamentally believe that we are the
[5:30] the overall market is trying to sort out
[5:33] what I would call liquidity dislocation
[5:37] when the US government runs a $200
[5:39] billion trade surplus in September which
[5:42] implies that we run a $2 trillion trade
[5:45] surplus annually. We know that's not
[5:48] true. We know that's gimmicky. that was
[5:51] very likely to try and fill the TGA, the
[5:54] Treasury General's account. Then for the
[5:57] government to shut down again, that was
[5:59] very helpful in drying up liquidity and
[6:02] concentrating it in the Treasury
[6:03] General's account. And so I think that
[6:06] this is liquidity dislocation,
[6:10] extreme tightening in a really weird
[6:12] time that was fairly unexpected. This
[6:14] was an unexpected event. Next, let's
[6:16] let's look at Bitcoin's implied
[6:18] volatility. I just want to show you
[6:20] guys. I'd given the speech at at the
[6:22] strike offices as well. Um,
[6:25] you can hear my stubble on the
[6:28] microphone.
[6:29] Okay, that should be better. Um,
[6:33] the implied volatility is extremely low
[6:36] and this is relevant for a few reasons.
[6:38] For one, this kind of solidifies this
[6:41] idea that
[6:44] Bitcoin has not reached peak price
[6:46] discovery all-time highs. our
[6:48] volatility. If you look at our
[6:50] volatility, this goes all the way back
[6:51] to 2022. You can see in early 2022, that
[6:55] extreme peak implied volatility was when
[6:58] we were setting all-time highs. Jerome
[7:00] Powell went on and hiked rates as fast
[7:02] as they've ever been hiked, crashed all
[7:04] markets, uh rendered banks insolvent. Um
[7:08] FTX imploded, so on and so forth. We've
[7:11] been at relatively [clears throat]
[7:12] low volatility since then. And even on
[7:16] this uh flush, even on this uh decline
[7:20] from all-time highs, and the the reason
[7:24] I I want to reference that and bring
[7:26] that up is usually you see extremely
[7:29] high volatility on declines like when
[7:32] the market is puking and we didn't. And
[7:34] so again, this to me looks like it was
[7:37] forced selling in extremely illquid
[7:40] markets. The market did not expect this
[7:42] downturn and there were no structured
[7:43] bids to go catch it. So this again just
[7:47] further solidifies my point that
[7:51] no one was actively bidding. No one
[7:53] expected a meltdown and the market had
[7:56] just low liquidity. Next, Bitcoin
[8:00] unrealized profit and loss. So what are
[8:04] you looking at? The black is Bitcoin's
[8:07] price.
[8:08] red, orange, yellow, green, blue. Those
[8:11] signal in color different feelings,
[8:15] market structures throughout price
[8:17] action. So, what we're looking at in
[8:19] green is
[8:22] uh belief and denial. So, effectively,
[8:25] cut to the chase. Can you guys see my
[8:27] cursor? Do you see this massive dip in
[8:31] sentiment right below the price?
[8:35] That is extremely profound. Um, so what
[8:41] this is showing us is the percentage of
[8:42] unrealized profit verse loss across the
[8:45] entire Bitcoin supply and we dropped
[8:47] substantially which means that a lot of
[8:50] unrealized profit evaporated.
[8:53] So we're not in euphoria and greed.
[8:56] We're not in denial. We're not in the
[8:58] hope and fear. This is very much par for
[9:01] the course for a mid cycle anxiety zone.
[9:05] 30 35% off the highs. Guys, this is
[9:08] exactly what we saw in April. Do you
[9:11] guys see the break between green and
[9:13] yellow back here in April? That was
[9:17] liberation day, liberation week. Stock
[9:19] market down 20%, Bitcoin down 35% from
[9:23] highs, everyone screaming for a great
[9:24] depression. And then all of a sudden,
[9:26] liquidity came back and we rallied to
[9:29] 126,000 in Bitcoin. and the stock market
[9:31] made new highs and everything was fine
[9:33] because they printed the money. They
[9:35] printed the money. And so again, this to
[9:37] me is not a red capitulation. I don't
[9:40] see the color orange of extreme fear.
[9:43] This very simply is anxiety. This very
[9:47] simply is illiquidity. Illiquidity.
[9:50] Next, the IBIT ETF flows. Let's look at
[9:53] the outflows. So, what are you looking
[9:55] at? The orange line is Bitcoin's price
[9:59] and the green is IBIT's flows. You can
[10:02] see they've gone negative. You've
[10:03] probably seen some headlines like, "Oh
[10:05] my goodness. Oh my goodness. I I made
[10:09] record outflows. Institutions don't love
[10:12] Bitcoin anymore. The outflows are on par
[10:15] with when? With Liberation Day? With
[10:19] earlier this year. Nothing to worry
[10:21] about. There have been structural
[10:23] inflows this entire time. We also talked
[10:25] about the carry trade. When the carry
[10:27] trade unwinds, you see outflows in the
[10:29] ETF. If anything, all of the tourists
[10:33] have exited the IBIT product. So, what
[10:35] we'll talk about is short-term holders,
[10:38] speculative traders, they have been
[10:40] washed out and really they realize their
[10:42] positions as losses. But if you zoom out
[10:45] and you look at the IBIT product, all
[10:47] you I mean it's fairly straightforward.
[10:50] When there is no liquidity, Bitcoin
[10:52] reacts the most. When there's liquidity,
[10:54] Bitcoin reacts the most. We went through
[10:56] this very weird liquidity dislocation
[10:58] with a government surplus in September
[11:01] and a government shutdown. The repo
[11:04] markets are extremely strained, which
[11:06] we'll talk about in a second. Japan is
[11:07] blowing up. Literally, Japan is acting
[11:10] like an emerging market, which we'll
[11:12] talk about in a second. And so, Bitcoin
[11:14] very simply is the liquidity smoke alarm
[11:16] it was designed to be. The IBIT flows
[11:19] are nothing to be concerned about. We
[11:21] are just going back to liberation day
[11:25] outflows because there is no liquidity.
[11:29] It's all a good thing. Next, spent
[11:33] volume in profit. Okay, what are we
[11:37] looking at here? Volume of Bitcoin sold
[11:40] at a profit segmented by how long the
[11:42] coins were held. So, red is extreme
[11:45] short-term holders. Blue is much longer
[11:48] term holders. Okay,
[11:51] why does this matter? This is this is
[11:54] interesting. This is an extreme spike in
[11:57] profit volume across all the cohorts.
[11:59] So, you see every single cohort spike
[12:02] massively. If you look over here, the
[12:07] other spikes have been when we're in
[12:09] extreme price discovery and making
[12:11] all-time high after all-time high after
[12:12] all-time high. So you can see this just
[12:14] goes back to 2019, but you can see these
[12:18] spikes seem to correlate with parabolic
[12:20] bull runs like you can see here in 2024.
[12:23] You can see here in 2023 and so it is
[12:26] interesting that this is spiking while
[12:29] the price is declining not appreciating.
[12:33] Now why would this be happening? I don't
[12:36] know. You can come up with all sorts of
[12:37] different justifications. Are people
[12:39] believing in the four-year cycle? Are
[12:41] they front running? Are they trying to
[12:43] manifest the four-year cycle in and
[12:46] seeking exit liquidity? Are people
[12:48] strained financially because of the
[12:50] tight liquidity? People are getting
[12:52] margin called. People are needing to
[12:54] post collateral in other parts of their
[12:56] life. It's interesting. But the point is
[13:00] the fact that you're seeing a spike in
[13:03] this data while Bitcoin's going down to
[13:06] me shows panic profit taking uh
[13:10] mechanical derisking. So again, when
[13:12] markets get extremely illquid, uh people
[13:15] have to derisk. You have to sell what's
[13:17] liquid. You sell what you can, not what
[13:20] you want. Uh and capital rotation. So if
[13:25] I go next,
[13:27] this is even more interesting to me. So
[13:30] this is long-term holders spending
[13:32] indicator. So what are we looking at
[13:34] here when long-term holders? So this is
[13:37] 155 plus days. So, not that long-term,
[13:40] but nonetheless, I guess that's what we
[13:43] count in this visual. The point is, uh,
[13:47] these little orange segments again, they
[13:50] correlate with either parabolic moves
[13:54] traditionally, like the local highs. And
[13:57] so, this one is interesting. Why are
[13:59] long quote unquote long-term holders?
[14:02] That's the other thing about this
[14:03] metric, by the way, guys, is that people
[14:05] say, "Ogs are dumping. OG's are
[14:07] dumping." But you look into the data and
[14:10] it's like an OG is someone who's been
[14:12] holding Bitcoin for three years. It's
[14:14] like that's an OG.
[14:17] It's as if like the people from 2010 are
[14:20] selling all their Bitcoin and now you
[14:22] get all this FUD about quantum, all this
[14:24] [ __ ] and none of it's true. You look
[14:26] into the data and that's not an OG. Like
[14:29] I think of an OG 2015
[14:33] 20 like pre SegWit, pre207 bull run.
[14:38] Everyone has their own definitions. All
[14:40] right. But anyway, just wanted to make
[14:43] that point. I I digress. They're selling
[14:46] into weirdly weakness, which is a little
[14:50] bit interesting. Again, is it four-year
[14:52] cycle speculation? Is liquidity so tight
[14:55] that people need to rotate capital?
[14:57] before, like we talked about before, is
[14:58] Bitcoin going through its IPO moment
[15:00] where these holders finally have the
[15:03] liquidity to exit where before selling
[15:07] 80,000 Bitcoin was impossible. You'd
[15:10] move the market too much. And so now
[15:12] that you have these ETF flows, the
[15:15] corporate flows, the public companies
[15:18] buying loads and loads of Bitcoin, you
[15:20] have exit liquidity where you get to see
[15:22] some distribution. But again, the point
[15:24] of this visual, this is not a blowoff
[15:26] top. This is not the end of a cycle. All
[15:29] of this data points very firmly to a
[15:33] brief stretch of liquidity dislocation,
[15:35] of liquidity stress, of forced selling,
[15:38] and of panic selling from shortterm
[15:41] holders. Because look at this. This is
[15:45] short-term holder realized loss. I'm
[15:47] going to say that again. This is
[15:48] probably my favorite one. short-term
[15:50] holder realized loss. Take a look at
[15:54] this, guys. Black is the Bitcoin price,
[15:57] the black line. Orange is the short-term
[16:00] holders realized loss. Look at that
[16:02] spike on the far right. It almost made
[16:04] an all-time high going back to 2022.
[16:08] Now, November 2022, does anyone remember
[16:11] what happened then?
[16:13] FTX.
[16:15] That's when FTX blew up.
[16:18] So fast forward to today, shortterm
[16:21] holding, realized loss. So these are not
[16:24] real Bitcoiners. These are tourists,
[16:26] people looking for a short-term trade,
[16:28] people looking for momentum, people
[16:29] swing trading, people day trading. These
[16:31] aren't the stay humble and stack saters.
[16:34] These aren't the loyal Jack Maler show
[16:36] listeners. No, no, no. Taurus, I tell
[16:39] you. And they capitulated. This is what
[16:42] we love to see. They capitulated. They
[16:45] got rid of their coins at a loss at the
[16:47] highest rate since the FTX implosion.
[16:51] Again, guys, you love to see this
[16:53] because if I go all the way back to my
[16:55] first one, over 5%
[16:59] of Bitcoin changed hands during this
[17:01] dip.
[17:04] Unbelievable amount of distribution. And
[17:07] when you go to this one and you see that
[17:11] near FTX levels, like we were off by a
[17:15] pixel to FTX levels of realized loss
[17:20] from Taurus.
[17:23] These are all extremely good signs.
[17:25] Another one, when has the mayor multiple
[17:28] been this low? Okay, so all of the
[17:31] indicators, the fear index, RSI, mayor
[17:35] multiple, it shows that Bitcoin is going
[17:38] to operate from an extreme level of
[17:40] strength. There's not that much downside
[17:42] to be realized left. And we're sitting
[17:44] at 88,000.
[17:47] Really, really healthy sign. And then
[17:50] this screenshot from Charlie at 80,600,
[17:53] Bitcoin is now down 36% from its
[17:55] all-time high of 126,300 in early
[17:58] October. That's the biggest correction
[18:00] off an all-time high since 2022. Is this
[18:03] unusual volatility for Bitcoin? Not at
[18:07] all. We've seen similar or bigger draw
[18:09] downs every year.
[18:12] Every year, guys, the last time we saw
[18:15] something like this was this year, April
[18:19] 7th, Liberation Day.
[18:22] Okay? We've seen 33%. And again, could
[18:25] it get to 94% down, which we saw in
[18:28] 2011? Sure. Technically, anything is
[18:31] possible. This shows not financial
[18:32] advice, right? I'm not your dad. I'm not
[18:35] your babysitter. I'm not your financial
[18:36] adviser. But to me, this is much more
[18:41] structurally. Look at the area here in
[18:44] 2017. Okay?
[18:47] Down 33%, down 39%, down 40%, down 30%
[18:51] from highs. By the way, guys, 2017, the
[18:54] price opened January 1st. I'll never
[18:56] forget it, at $1,000. And it hit $20,000
[19:00] that calendar year. So, 20x. And it
[19:03] experienced that parabolic move while
[19:07] being down 30% from highs, down 41% from
[19:09] highs, down 39% from highs, down 33%
[19:12] from highs.
[19:15] To me, what are we living through now?
[19:18] Look at this. Down 32% liberation day,
[19:22] right? Down 36%
[19:25] government shutdown, repo market stress,
[19:29] trade surplus.
[19:32] Remember, government surplus, private
[19:35] sector deficit, government deficit,
[19:38] private sector surplus.
[19:42] Okay. So, what's the real culprit?
[19:47] What's the real issue going on in
[19:48] markets? It's the macro. It's the
[19:51] liquidity. What I've been hinting at
[19:53] this time, this show, we've got a little
[19:55] bit more detail. Since we last spoke,
[19:58] the New York Fed convened and met with
[20:01] Wall Street firms over key lending
[20:03] facility. This is from FT, the Financial
[20:06] Times.
[20:09] Oops, I clicked the wrong button.
[20:10] Federal Reserve officials describes the
[20:12] standing repo facility as a crucial
[20:14] pressure relief valve to help the
[20:16] central bank keep short-term borrowing
[20:18] costs within their target range. Okay,
[20:21] we go on. This is from the article. New
[20:24] York Federal Reserve President John
[20:26] Williams convened a meeting with Wall
[20:28] Street dealers this week over a key
[20:30] short-term lending facility,
[20:32] underscoring officials concerns about
[20:34] strains in US money markets. The hastily
[20:37] arranged meeting, which has not been
[20:39] previously reported, took place on the
[20:41] sidelines of the Fed's annual Treasury
[20:43] market conference on Wednesday,
[20:45] according to three people familiar with
[20:47] the matter. It comes at a time when
[20:49] banks, investors, and officials are
[20:51] concerned about signs of stress in an
[20:53] arcane but vital corner of the US
[20:56] financial system. Williams solicited
[20:58] feedback from primary dealers, mostly
[21:00] banks that underwrite the government's
[21:02] debt on the use of the Fed's standing
[21:04] repo facility, which central bank
[21:06] officials describe as a crucial pressure
[21:08] relief valve to help them keep
[21:10] short-term borrowing costs within their
[21:12] target range. A representative from many
[21:16] of the 25 primary dealers were in
[21:18] attendance. The people said they noted
[21:20] that the attendants were broadly members
[21:23] of banks teams specialized in fixed
[21:25] income markets. A spokesperson for the
[21:27] New York Fed confirmed the meeting took
[21:29] place. Next from Bloomberg. Bond dealers
[21:33] rebuff New York Fed tool as strains in
[21:36] repo market build. The takeaways from
[21:40] the article. Bond traders have pushed
[21:42] back against Federal Reserve officials
[21:44] urging them to use the standing repo
[21:47] facility, the SRF, complicating the
[21:49] central bank's efforts to ease strains
[21:51] in the market for repurchase agreements.
[21:53] So here's what's going on, guys. there's
[21:55] not enough liquidity in the system. And
[21:57] we've talked about this, but let me
[21:58] recap real quick.
[22:01] Well, I mean, simply put, the US
[22:03] government's in too much debt. That's
[22:04] the real answer. But the more
[22:06] elaborative answer, over the last few
[22:09] years, the United States has issued this
[22:12] debt via T bills, short-term debt, okay?
[22:15] Not long-term. They can't sell 10-year
[22:18] bonds.
[22:19] No one wants to buy that dog [ __ ]
[22:22] Nobody wants United States counterparty
[22:24] risk for the next decade. Everyone's
[22:27] pricing in significant amounts of
[22:28] debasement. Nobody wants that.
[22:32] So where can they borrow money?
[22:34] Shortterm T bills. Now when they borrow
[22:38] so many T bills that puts an extreme
[22:41] amount of strain on the financial system
[22:44] in particular liquidity
[22:46] because the TGA the Treasury General's
[22:49] account needs a high balance to roll
[22:52] those T bills over every week. The
[22:55] Treasury is rolling over an estimate
[22:57] $550 billion of T bills a week. And so
[23:01] Scott Bessant needs a higher checking
[23:04] account to roll those over so they don't
[23:06] have a failed auction.
[23:08] So what we saw in September and October,
[23:11] whether purposeful or not, was a
[23:13] structural rebuild of the Treasury
[23:15] General's account. The balance grew from
[23:18] hundreds of billions to a trillion
[23:20] dollars.
[23:22] That pulls liquidity out of the
[23:23] financial system. The need for the US to
[23:27] continue to roll this debt and finance
[23:29] more debt, especially in the short term,
[23:32] puts higher and higher and higher strain
[23:34] on the financial system. Now, the Fed
[23:37] built a facility to solve this problem.
[23:41] Okay, the standing repo facility is
[23:44] effectively like an immediate emergency
[23:46] money printer if you have to. So that
[23:49] these markets, these overnight markets
[23:52] would not collapse.
[23:54] These banks are saying we don't want to
[23:57] use that. It makes us look bad. So, I'll
[24:01] read on. Primary dealers told officials
[24:03] that borrowing directly from the central
[24:05] bank still carries a stigma and could be
[24:08] seen as a sign of trouble and also
[24:11] pointed to operational and balance sheet
[24:13] constraints that made it difficult to
[24:15] access the facility.
[24:18] So, quickly, let me take a step back.
[24:21] We've been told the US isn't worried
[24:23] about the strain. Everything's fine.
[24:26] Bitcoin's tanking because of quantum.
[24:29] Bitcoin's taking because OG believers
[24:31] don't believe in it anymore. Wrong. No.
[24:35] Incorrect. Bitcoin's collapsing. It's
[24:38] going to 10K. Bare market. No. Wrong.
[24:42] Incorrect.
[24:44] There's no liquidity in the financial
[24:45] system. And Bitcoin is the only free
[24:47] market that can tell us the truth.
[24:51] because all your other [ __ ]
[24:52] indicators, all your other legacy fi uh
[24:55] fiat financial system, it doesn't tell
[24:58] us the truth. It's centrally planned.
[25:00] It's controlled is at off hours. It's
[25:02] overly regulated. Isn't audited.
[25:05] So what's happening? There's no
[25:07] liquidity in the system. And you're
[25:10] going to sit here and tell me that the
[25:12] Fed and the US government isn't
[25:13] concerned about that. Oh, but they're
[25:15] having sidecar meetings at the Fed
[25:17] Treasury Conference about what to do and
[25:20] officially confirmed by the Fed. So, the
[25:22] Fed le guys, the Fed went to the
[25:25] Financial Times and to Bloomberg and
[25:26] said, "Please report this."
[25:31] Okay.
[25:37] And here's the deal. The primary dealers
[25:39] don't want to use the facility. They're
[25:41] saying their balance sheet is too tight
[25:43] and too illquid and there's too much of
[25:45] a stigma. It would cause panic if
[25:47] they're effectively saying if we use
[25:49] this facility
[25:51] to the depth in which we need to
[25:55] the rest of the world will realize how
[25:57] [ __ ] we are. What do you want us to
[26:01] do?
[26:02] Dealers have floated ideas to make the
[26:04] facility more attractive, including
[26:06] allowing transactions to be centrally
[26:08] cleared as the Fed aims to ensure the
[26:10] facility remains effective for rate
[26:12] control amid short-term borrowing market
[26:14] strains.
[26:16] So, the primary dealers and the banks
[26:17] are saying, "Help us help you. We don't
[26:21] want to tap that thing because it'll
[26:23] show the world how bad it really is."
[26:25] And our balance sheets are constrained
[26:27] already. And the Fed is saying please,
[26:30] please, please. This is from Steven
[26:32] Myron. This morning I spoke about
[26:35] regulatory dominance of the Fed's
[26:36] balance sheet. For all the talk about
[26:38] fiscal dominance, the truth is the Fed
[26:40] is forced to take actions on balance
[26:42] sheet due to the regulatory framework
[26:44] binding banks. Here we go again.
[26:48] Deregulate the banks. So what we're
[26:50] seeing now, there is no liquidity. There
[26:53] is no liquidity for a lot of reasons.
[26:56] One of the reasons the government had
[26:57] just shut down. Liquidity will come back
[26:59] now that the government is reopened.
[27:00] Another reason there was a weird
[27:02] September surplus that was probably an
[27:04] accounting trick but nonetheless aided
[27:06] to growing the TGA, growing the Treasury
[27:09] General's account. Again, that takes
[27:10] liquidity out and they're doing that
[27:12] because of the amount of indebtedness
[27:14] the United States is in. So, where does
[27:16] the United States look to find marginal
[27:20] lenders to the government, its own
[27:22] domestic banking system? When you
[27:24] deposit money into Chase, into Bank of
[27:26] America, into City, that's not your
[27:28] money anymore. They take your deposit
[27:30] and they lend it to the United States.
[27:32] The banks are saying, "Our balance
[27:34] sheets are dry. Our balance sheet has no
[27:36] more liquidity. We need further
[27:39] deregulation. We need to add more
[27:42] leverage and we need stigmapositive ways
[27:46] for us to tap these facilities without
[27:48] making it look as bad as it actually is.
[27:55] Now to the even juicier part. One of the
[27:58] reasons liquidity has fallen off a cliff
[28:00] is because Japan is falling off a cliff.
[28:04] Okay, what are we looking at? This is
[28:06] the dollar yen in blue and the JPY
[28:10] 10-year in red. Spiking, guys. Spiking.
[28:16] So in red, this is not good. When you
[28:19] see the JP 10-year go that high and that
[28:24] [clears throat] fast, this is very bad.
[28:26] This is emerging market behavior. And
[28:29] this is the dollar strengthening
[28:31] incredibly against the yen. Let me tell
[28:34] you guys why this is very bad for
[28:36] liquidity and very bad for assets.
[28:41] First of all, for liquidity, Japan is
[28:44] really like the apex predator for
[28:48] providing liquidity to the global
[28:50] financial system because of the carry
[28:52] trade. The carry trade very simply put
[28:54] is you can borrow money for free in
[28:58] Japan effectively. Like rates are zero
[29:02] and have been well not technically
[29:04] anymore. I don't know what they are
[29:06] right now. 15 basis points, but rates
[29:08] have been zero or as close to zero as
[29:11] any other massive market and they've
[29:13] been there for years. And so it is
[29:17] effectively free to borrow money in
[29:19] Japan and then you reinvest that money
[29:22] into where you can get returns. And so
[29:24] the carry trade is I go to Japan, I
[29:27] borrow money for free and I buy Nvidia,
[29:30] I buy Tesla, I buy Bitcoin.
[29:33] Now, when the 10-year
[29:38] spikes and the dollar spikes against the
[29:40] yen, this forces the carry trade to
[29:44] unwind. We saw this happened to Bitcoin
[29:47] also a few years ago for those that have
[29:49] been around. And remember, when the
[29:51] dollar strengthens like this, that is
[29:53] not good for assets. Assets like a
[29:56] weaker dollar. The United States is so
[29:59] indebted, they need a weaker dollar. The
[30:01] only way they can default is through
[30:04] inflation. A slow default through
[30:06] inflation. So when Japan starts to freak
[30:10] out and have problems, it forces the
[30:13] carry trade to unwind, which forces the
[30:15] people that borrowed these Japanese yen
[30:18] to buy primarily United States assets
[30:21] that are producing returns. They have to
[30:24] sell those assets. And if I go to the
[30:26] next one, this is very interesting,
[30:29] guys. In the blue is the 10-year, the US
[30:32] 10ear. In the red is the Japanese
[30:36] 10-year. Look at how correlated they
[30:39] were up until this year.
[30:45] Listen. Look, I go back. The Japanese
[30:48] tenure rises and spikes, then the dollar
[30:52] spikes. The dollar spikes. Bad for
[30:55] assets. Bad for assets. Bad for America.
[30:58] If this continues to spike, investors
[31:00] are going to be selling treasuries.
[31:02] They're going to be selling stocks.
[31:03] They're going to be selling Bitcoin. And
[31:05] the whole financial system is going to
[31:06] go kapush. Last time this ha happened,
[31:09] what do you think they did? Printed the
[31:12] money again. Bitcoin will win either
[31:15] way. Either the entire financial system
[31:17] collapses, the world goes through a
[31:19] great depression so great that it makes
[31:22] the other great depression seem like
[31:25] Narnia.
[31:28] seem like a fairy tale.
[31:32] And then on the other side of the great
[31:34] human reset,
[31:36] Bitcoin is the world reserve currency
[31:39] naturally because again, at the end of
[31:40] the day, it's just a money competition.
[31:42] May the best money win or they print the
[31:46] money, they default silently through
[31:48] inflation. Every time there's a crisis,
[31:50] they bail out. They continue to extract
[31:53] wealth to make whole from the people.
[31:57] Either way, Bitcoin wins. So far, what
[31:59] they've done is print the money, default
[32:01] silently through inflation. And what
[32:03] we're seeing in Japan is not good for
[32:07] the United States.
[32:10] The listen,
[32:12] this tenure from the US will need to
[32:16] catch up to this Japanese tenure.
[32:20] Okay? Clearly, they've made a
[32:23] substantial effort to protect the US
[32:25] tenure. Clearly, that's what this visual
[32:28] shows.
[32:30] And the reason I pull up this next
[32:32] slide, do you guys remember the move
[32:34] index? We talked about this during
[32:35] liberation week, liberation day,
[32:38] whatever the [ __ ] it was.
[32:41] Okay, this tweet, US Treasury
[32:43] volatility, the move index is printing
[32:45] up on a monthly basis for the first time
[32:48] since April. What happened in April?
[32:50] Liberation Day. However, volatility is
[32:52] still fairly contained as the index is
[32:54] still below 2022 levels when volatility
[32:57] faced upward pressure from the Ukraine
[32:59] invasion and the start of the US rate
[33:01] hike in Feb/March of 2022.
[33:05] So, the move index is starting to move
[33:08] again. You can see liberation. You see
[33:11] this spike?
[33:14] That was when Trump was like, "Oh, no,
[33:16] no, no, no, no, no. Goodbye. Revert,
[33:19] revert, revert. And Bitcoin went from
[33:21] 30% off highs, Great Depression. Oh my
[33:23] god, the world's falling apart to new
[33:25] all-time highs, 126,000.
[33:29] The move index is starting to move
[33:31] again. Japan is falling apart. Okay, the
[33:36] Fed and banks are fighting about how
[33:38] they're going to sustain liquidity.
[33:40] Okay, so what was the title of this
[33:43] section? Macro liquidity is the real
[33:45] culprit. This is a liquidity
[33:47] dislocation. This is a liquidity crisis,
[33:50] guys. This is not
[33:53] four-year cycle. Give me a break. Have
[33:56] me on record saying I don't believe in
[33:58] it for a second. So, what is next?
[34:01] Here's what's next in my opinion. First
[34:03] of all, AI.
[34:05] This from the Wall Street Journal today.
[34:08] Today, how the US economy became hooked
[34:12] on AI spending. growth has been
[34:14] bolstered by data center investment and
[34:16] stock market wealth. A reversal could
[34:18] raise the risk of a recession. Now, this
[34:21] is from the AI and cryptozar of the US
[34:24] government, David Saxs. According to
[34:27] today's Wall Street Journal article, AI
[34:30] related investment accounts for half of
[34:33] GDP growth, 50% of GDP growth. Remember
[34:38] guys that Besson said, "Grow, grow,
[34:40] grow. We're going to grow our way out.
[34:41] We're going to grow our way out because
[34:43] we tried Elon Musk Doge austerity.
[34:46] Didn't work. We tried putting obnoxious
[34:50] and obscene tariffs on everyone. China
[34:52] said, "Go [ __ ] yourself." Absolutely
[34:55] not.
[34:57] Do you want rare earths?
[34:59] Stop being ridiculous.
[35:01] And so then we've reverted to we got to
[35:03] print the money. We got to grow. Where
[35:05] is growth? It's AI. So literally the
[35:09] spokesperson from the government comes
[35:11] out and says according to today's W uh
[35:14] Wall Street Journal AI related
[35:16] investment accounts for 50% of GDP
[35:20] growth. A reversal would risk recession.
[35:23] We can't afford to go backwards. Okay,
[35:27] there you go. The US government is
[35:29] starting to softly imply a government
[35:31] backs stop to AI.
[35:34] A lot of the Bitcoin uh dip was also
[35:38] surfacing fears about an AI bubble. What
[35:42] if Nvidia missed earnings? Would the
[35:45] world fall apart? Oracle, the credit
[35:47] spreads on Oracle are starting to get
[35:49] really concerning.
[35:51] Here comes the government saying, "Wait
[35:54] a second. We can't afford for AI
[35:59] to not work for national security." But
[36:03] probably more importantly for GDP
[36:04] growth.
[36:09] Let me play this video for you guys.
[36:12] >> Years. You've said AI could wipe out
[36:15] half of all entrylevel white collar jobs
[36:17] and spike unemployment to 10 to 20% in
[36:20] the next 1 to 5 years.
[36:21] >> Yes. That is that is that is the future
[36:24] we could see if we don't become aware of
[36:27] this problem. Now
[36:28] >> half of all entry level white color
[36:30] jobs. Well, if we look at entry-level
[36:33] consultants, lawyers, uh, financial
[36:37] professionals, you know, many of kind of
[36:39] the white collar service industries, a
[36:41] lot of what they do, you know, AI models
[36:44] are already quite good at and without
[36:45] intervention, it's hard to imagine that
[36:48] there won't be some significant job
[36:50] impact there. And my worry is that it'll
[36:53] be broad and it'll be faster than what
[36:56] we've seen with previous technology.
[36:59] You've said,
[37:02] >> "Okay,
[37:03] you heard it first on this show. You saw
[37:06] it softly reported through some
[37:08] mainstream media outlets. Now it's on 60
[37:11] minutes.
[37:13] Six. The most politicized show there is.
[37:16] AI could wipe out half 50% of all
[37:20] entry-level white collar jobs and spike
[37:23] unemployment to 10 to 20% in the next 1
[37:26] to five years.
[37:29] Guys,
[37:31] so here's the deal. Here's my point.
[37:36] As Luke says, if AI doesn't work, it
[37:38] will risk recession, blowing out fiscal
[37:40] deficits into insufficient foreign US
[37:43] Treasury demand. So if AI doesn't work,
[37:46] everything falls apart. We have to print
[37:48] money. If AI does work, it will
[37:51] undermine the US fiscal position. Around
[37:54] half of US federal receipts come from
[37:56] employment. So around half of the US
[37:59] government's tax receipts that goes
[38:01] towards financing interest payments on
[38:03] the debt. So the US has to pay money to
[38:07] borrow money. No one's lending to the
[38:09] United States for free.
[38:12] Would you buy a 10-year for 0%.
[38:18] Half of the federal receipts come from
[38:20] employed people. So if AI works, it will
[38:23] undermine the US fiscal problem. Blowing
[38:25] out deficits into insufficient US
[38:27] Treasury demand. What is the common
[38:29] denominator here? Insufficient
[38:33] US Treasury demand. Nobody wants dog
[38:36] [ __ ] treasuries from the drunk person at
[38:39] the party that's $ 38 trillion in debt.
[38:50] No matter what, they have to print the
[38:53] money and they're starting to say the
[38:57] quiet part out loud. Next, guys, listen.
[39:02] The other thing about this, you know,
[39:04] cycles ending for your this, for your
[39:06] that
[39:09] let me say something.
[39:13] Back when we made a top in 2022, this
[39:17] So, by the way, this is the Fed's
[39:19] balance sheet. Back when we made a top
[39:22] in 2022 in Bitcoin, the Fed's balance
[39:24] sheet was at about $9 trillion.
[39:28] And they came out and said, "We're
[39:32] ending QE. We're starting QT. We're
[39:36] going to raise rates as fast as we can."
[39:40] They raised rates faster than any cycle
[39:43] ever. And they went on to remove close
[39:47] to $3 trillion off a $9 trillion balance
[39:51] sheet. The Fed's balance sheet now sits
[39:53] close to 6 trillion. 33% of the Fed's
[39:57] balance sheet evaporated, erased.
[40:03] You hear often, what if China sells its
[40:06] treasuries and dumps its treasuries?
[40:07] What if Japan has to dump all of its
[40:09] treasuries? You can take Japan and China
[40:11] and combine them and they wouldn't have
[40:15] the impact that the Fed has had since
[40:17] 2022.
[40:22] I give you this context to say QT, this
[40:26] blue line going down ends on December
[40:29] 1st. It ends in one week. QE resumes
[40:34] shortly after that. So for people listen
[40:37] if if Jerome Pal was coming out and
[40:40] saying we're bringing the Fed's balance
[40:42] sheet from 6 trillion to 1 trillion and
[40:44] we're going to raise rates from 4% to
[40:46] 10%.
[40:48] I will be on this show saying you got to
[40:51] stay humble. You got to stack sads.
[40:54] You know bare markets are temporary.
[40:57] This asset is that's not what's
[40:59] happening.
[41:01] What's happening is the opposite.
[41:03] Japan's blowing up. AI needs a
[41:05] government backs stop. QT is ending. QE
[41:08] is starting. Rate cuts. There's three
[41:10] rate cuts priced in before we get a new
[41:12] Fed chair. And now Bessant is out saying
[41:15] Trump should be the Fed chair.
[41:19] Let's move on. So on the back half of
[41:22] that, futures rise after Fed's Williams
[41:24] signals possible December rate cut. The
[41:27] other thing that happened in conjunction
[41:28] with Bitcoin's decline is Powell came
[41:30] out and hinted that he wasn't going to
[41:32] touch rates in December. The markets did
[41:34] not like that. The tweet reads, "US
[41:37] stock futures climbed Friday after Fed
[41:40] President John Williams hinted a
[41:41] December rate cut. S&P 500 futures rose
[41:44] 50 basis points and NASDAQ futures
[41:46] gained 40 basis points despite major
[41:48] indexes heading for their worst week
[41:50] since March." Williams said there is
[41:52] quote room for further adjustment end
[41:55] quote to rates and noted easing
[41:57] inflation risks. Traders lifted the odds
[41:59] of a December rate cut over 50%, up from
[42:02] 37%. The Nasdaq remains under pressure
[42:05] amid concerns over tech monetization and
[42:07] rising debt. Williams also said
[42:09] inflation has stalled near 2.75% partly
[42:12] due to trade policies, but he expects it
[42:14] to move back toward 2% by 2027.
[42:18] Thanks, bro. All right,
[42:21] look at this guys. This is poly market
[42:24] Fed decision in December. You can see
[42:27] precisely when Jerome Powell said, "Fuck
[42:30] Trump. [ __ ] your rate cut and odds
[42:34] tanked
[42:35] and markets freaked out." And then you
[42:38] can see the Fed now say, "Well, wait a
[42:39] second.
[42:41] Never mind. We will cut in December."
[42:44] And now the odds are back above 80%.
[42:52] All right, let's hear from our boy
[42:53] Scotty B. I got two Scotty B videos for
[42:57] you guys today.
[43:00] >> I think
[43:01] >> you're not taking that job,
[43:03] >> Brett. There there I think 340 million
[43:06] Americans now. I think I I can safely
[43:09] say that I will not be the Fed chair. I
[43:12] think President Trump will make a great
[43:13] Fed chair. He has an open mind. He
[43:15] understands monetary policy better than
[43:16] a lot of people want to the list. You're
[43:18] not taking that job, Brett. They're
[43:21] there. I think
[43:25] Did you guys just hear what I heard?
[43:28] I think President Trump would make a
[43:30] great Fed chair.
[43:36] Listen, do I think Trump's going to be
[43:37] the Fed chair? No. Do I think Besson's
[43:40] going to be the Fed chair? Doesn't look
[43:42] like it. What are they signaling to the
[43:44] market? The Fed chair is effectively
[43:46] Trump. The next Fed chair is going to do
[43:50] as told, right?
[43:53] Really important signaling, guys. Again,
[43:55] you think Bitcoin is going to go through
[43:57] a multi-year bare market where QT is
[43:59] ending December 1st. QE has to start.
[44:03] Rate cuts, Japan blowing up, AI needs a
[44:06] federal backs stop or else we go into a
[44:08] recession. AI is going to displace 50%
[44:12] of entry-level white collar jobs. AI is
[44:14] going to send unemployment to 20%.
[44:17] The US government relies on employment
[44:20] to finance its interest payments because
[44:24] people that are employed spend in the
[44:26] economy and pay taxes.
[44:29] Oh, and then Trump gets to place who he
[44:32] wants to be as Fed chair in May, right
[44:35] before midterms.
[44:38] Tell me again that Bitcoin is going to
[44:40] go through a two to threeyear bare
[44:41] market.
[44:47] Miss me with that [ __ ] Not on this
[44:50] show. Not on this show.
[44:54] Oh, did I Oh, I have one more Scotty B.
[44:56] Let's listen to the Scotty B before I
[44:58] give you that that slide.
[45:00] >> Let's get all the Scotty B in while we
[45:02] can.
[45:04] >> Every day. And my prediction is that
[45:07] first quarter, second quarter, what we
[45:09] are going to see is we have brought the
[45:11] inflation down. It is curving down and
[45:15] real income, the other side of that
[45:16] equation is real income growth. And we
[45:19] are going to see this from all this
[45:21] investment.
[45:22] >> Would a $2,000 tariff dividend check
[45:25] going to people be inflationary? Uh well
[45:29] the there are a lot of things that are
[45:30] going to happen next year and uh that
[45:34] could be one of them and again maybe we
[45:37] could persuade Americans to save that
[45:40] because a couple one one of the things
[45:41] that's going to happen next year the the
[45:44] the Trump accounts every child who was
[45:47] born from January 1st for the next three
[45:50] years is going to get a government
[45:52] account that goes into the stock market.
[45:55] So every American child born for the
[45:57] next 3 years starting January 1st is
[46:00] going to have that. They can take it out
[46:01] when they're 18. They're going to learn
[46:03] the power of compounding. And the uh
[46:07] there's going to be a lot of financial
[46:08] literacy around that. And I think the
[46:11] reason that we saw kind of the
[46:13] disastrous election in New York is young
[46:15] people don't feel like they have a stake
[46:17] in the economy. So we want to give them
[46:18] a stake in the economy.
[46:20] >> We know that.
[46:24] Oh man, Scotty B never fails to deliver.
[46:29] Would a $2,000 dividend check be
[46:31] inflationary? Well, not if people don't
[46:34] spend it.
[46:39] Oh, by the way, everyone that's born
[46:42] right now,
[46:43] we're plowing money into the stock
[46:45] market for them and they're not allowed
[46:47] to sell it until they're 18.
[46:52] guys. I mean, come on, man.
[46:57] Um, wait, I want to show I misplaced
[47:00] this slide. Hold on.
[47:03] I want to show this one on the back half
[47:04] of that because it's funny. We're going
[47:06] to give people $2,000 stimulus check and
[47:09] no, it won't be inflationary as long as
[47:11] they don't spend the money.
[47:13] Okay. Well, let's check in on US
[47:15] consumer sentiment. Is everyone happy?
[47:17] Is real wages growing? Can everyone
[47:20] afford everything that they need in
[47:21] their life? Oops. Consumer sentiment
[47:25] falls close to a record low. Views on
[47:28] personal finances sink to lowest in 16
[47:31] years.
[47:33] Whoops.
[47:36] That's not good.
[47:40] So, we're going to print the $2,000 for
[47:42] everybody. They're going to spend it.
[47:44] You're also going to be buying the stock
[47:47] market for toddlers and not letting them
[47:50] sell until they're 18. QT's ending. QE
[47:53] starting, rate cuts, Trump gets to
[47:56] appoint his own Fed chair. Japan is
[47:58] blowing up and needs a bailout. AI is
[48:01] blowing up and needs a bailout. But when
[48:03] you do bail out AI and it goes on to be
[48:06] successful, the success is going to
[48:07] unemploy
[48:09] the entrylevel white collar jobs. It's
[48:12] going to send unemployment to 20%.
[48:15] That then will force the US government
[48:16] to print more money because they're not
[48:19] going to get enough tax receipts to
[48:20] afford the interest payments on their $
[48:23] 38 trillion of debt. Did I get that
[48:25] right?
[48:29] And the only finite fixed supply asset
[48:32] in the world is going to go down.
[48:37] Nope. Not on my watch. not on this show.
[48:41] That's why we got our own show,
[48:43] [ __ ] You guys can say whatever
[48:45] you want on CNBC, but this is our show.
[48:48] This is a show for the Bitcoiner. None
[48:50] of that dumbass garbage on this show.
[48:55] Another uh really interesting insight I
[48:57] wanted to point out is that the stable
[48:59] coin supply has shrked with this dip.
[49:03] And when I was I I would make the case
[49:05] often on this show that the US
[49:07] government has an innate interest in
[49:10] Bitcoin because they have a definitive
[49:12] interest in stable coins and they're
[49:14] correlated. The way to grow stable coins
[49:16] is to grow Bitcoin. And everyone was
[49:18] like, I don't understand that, Jack. I
[49:20] don't get why it's good for Tether if
[49:22] Bitcoin goes up or it's good for the
[49:24] United States if Bitcoin goes up because
[49:25] it's good for Tether, which makes it
[49:27] good for the United States. I don't
[49:28] understand that. Well, this is a great
[49:30] way to understand it because when
[49:32] Bitcoin goes down, the stable coin
[49:35] market cap has gone down, which means
[49:37] there's now less demand for US bills.
[49:41] So, the government wants stable coins to
[49:43] go up, not down. Which means the
[49:46] government is going to want Bitcoin to
[49:47] stay up, not down. This is now I'm not
[49:52] saying the government's going to send
[49:53] Bitcoin to the moon. All I'm saying is
[49:55] the United States has a structural
[49:57] interest in Bitcoin. It does not
[50:00] surprise me they want to support the
[50:01] industry. It does not surprise me they
[50:03] want to end operation choke points. It
[50:05] does not surprise me they want a
[50:07] strategic Bitcoin reserve because stable
[50:10] coins are like the reserve fiat with
[50:12] Bitcoin is the dollar. They're
[50:14] propagating dollar hegeomy globally.
[50:18] And so Bitcoin falls, stable coins fall,
[50:22] stable coins fall, demand for US debt
[50:24] falls, demand for US debt falls, US
[50:26] sovereign crisis, debt crisis.
[50:32] So this makes my point that the United
[50:36] States, Bitcoin is like universal acid
[50:40] acid, guys. It somehow it seeps into the
[50:44] cracks of everything it touches and it
[50:47] just conquers it. Somehow Bitcoin seeped
[50:51] into Washington DC
[50:53] and it found itself where the US if the
[50:56] US wants to sell more of its dog [ __ ]
[50:58] debt.
[51:00] Its best interest is to support Bitcoin.
[51:06] Don't debank guys like me. Don't make
[51:09] overregulatory [ __ ] that make it
[51:12] harder for us to build businesses. Don't
[51:14] neglect Bitcoin as an asset class.
[51:17] That's actually in their best interest.
[51:21] Interesting. I'm just saying. Hopefully
[51:23] that's clear. Um and then this point
[51:26] kind of rounds it out. So this tweet,
[51:29] it's crazy to think that money supply is
[51:31] expanding this aggressively even as
[51:34] global central bank balance sheets have
[51:36] been contracting. We've seen a $10
[51:40] trillion increase in global money supply
[51:42] in just the past 12 months. Now imagine
[51:46] what happens once central banks
[51:48] inevitably need to expand their balance
[51:50] sheets again, which in my view is only a
[51:52] matter of time. If this helps, mute the
[51:55] recent volatility noise in hard assets.
[51:57] This is the macro data point that
[52:00] ultimately drives the cycle. Again,
[52:02] guys, so this goes back to my Fed
[52:06] balance sheet screenshot.
[52:09] Bitcoin has gone from 16K to 126K while
[52:13] the Fed shrunk its balance sheet by 30%
[52:17] while they removed $3 trillion off their
[52:20] balance sheet.
[52:22] And his point is,
[52:24] what the hell?
[52:26] Crazy to think how the money supply has
[52:28] grown without central banks printing
[52:31] money. Who's been printing the money?
[52:33] Fiscal dominance. The US Treasury. It's
[52:35] been the government's fiscal dominance
[52:37] is printing the money. Nothing stops
[52:40] this train. Lyn Alden.
[52:42] You see? And so the the point is we've
[52:46] been making new highs and Bitcoin's been
[52:49] running to the races while the Fed is in
[52:52] QT while rates are high while AI was
[52:57] financing itself not from government
[52:59] back backing but offbalance sheet.
[53:02] Facebook was pouring billions of dollars
[53:04] of its own cash flow and own Treasury
[53:07] balance sheet into funding AI. That
[53:09] money's gone. They need a government
[53:11] backs stop because they're gonna have to
[53:12] borrow a ton of money and they're not
[53:14] sure if they can pay it back
[53:17] again. And I'm supposed to be bearish.
[53:20] Are you nuts? Buy every dip. By every
[53:25] dip.
[53:27] QT is ending. December 1st. It's in a
[53:30] week. Other side of Thanksgiving. The
[53:33] Fed's balance sheet stops going down.
[53:37] Do you understand how big of a deal that
[53:38] is? They have to print the money, guys.
[53:42] There's no liquidity in the financial
[53:44] system. The level of indebtedness is too
[53:46] high. They need AI for GDP growth. I
[53:49] mean, I can I can make this show 10
[53:51] hours for how much money they need to
[53:54] print. The level of money printing is
[53:56] going to exceed COVID levels. It's just
[54:00] math. And so I love this tweet because
[54:03] yes, the money supply has expanded
[54:06] greatly and it has had nothing to do
[54:09] with central banks. It's all been fiscal
[54:11] dominance. Imagine what happens when the
[54:14] central banks and QT lower rates and
[54:17] start QE. Imagine. Look at guys. Look at
[54:22] this chart. Look at what happens when
[54:25] the Fed enters QE and starts printing
[54:28] money. Look at the steepness of these
[54:33] lines.
[54:34] That's outrageous.
[54:39] And you're selling Bitcoin.
[54:44] [sighs]
[54:51] I rest my case.
[54:53] I rest my case. I already know the
[54:55] comment section. Jack leads a cult. Jack
[54:59] never says Bitcoin's going to go down.
[55:01] Like I said, if
[55:05] rates were gonna hike as fast as they've
[55:07] ever hiked and we're entering a
[55:09] tightening cycle,
[55:11] I would have no problem warning everyone
[55:13] on the show like, "Hey guys, listen.
[55:16] You know, be careful out there.
[55:20] Overcolateralize your loans, etc., etc."
[55:23] But it's the opposite. All right, strike
[55:25] real quick. Um, this tweet got a lot of
[55:28] attention. I just want to resurface kind
[55:31] of what Strike is, what we're building,
[55:34] what we have built. Um, so this tweet,
[55:36] "We're building the bank for Bitcoiners.
[55:39] Jack uses Strike to direct deposit his
[55:41] paychecks." True. I direct deposit all
[55:43] my paychecks into Strike. It acts as my
[55:45] bank and I convert all those paychecks
[55:48] into Bitcoin. So, you can direct deposit
[55:50] your paycheck into Bitcoin. I have mine
[55:52] set to 100% conversion. can. So, that's
[55:55] true. You can buy and sell Bitcoin on
[55:57] Strike, obviously. Yes, I do that. You
[56:00] can custody your cash in Bitcoin. Yes, I
[56:03] do that. You can pay your bills with
[56:05] either your cash or your Bitcoin on
[56:06] Strike. So, Strike, you have an
[56:08] accountant routing number. So, again,
[56:09] you can get your direct deposit there.
[56:11] You can also pay bills from there. So, I
[56:12] hook up my credit card, my HOA, my
[56:15] electricity and comed bill. I pay all of
[56:18] my bills from Strike. You guys now know
[56:20] for a fact that I do this because me
[56:23] getting debanked from Chase went super
[56:25] viral. So, I didn't have another
[56:28] financial institution outside of Strike.
[56:30] And so, I've just been living on Strike.
[56:32] It is my bank account. Uh, and then now
[56:34] you can borrow against your Bitcoin. So,
[56:36] I've borrowed against my Bitcoin before.
[56:38] I used to pay my bills with my Bitcoin,
[56:40] which forced me to sell Bitcoin every
[56:42] time I had to pay bills, but it's what I
[56:44] had to do because I didn't own any
[56:46] dollars. I still don't own any dollars.
[56:48] Now I get to borrow against my Bitcoin.
[56:50] It helps me because then I don't have to
[56:52] sell my Bitcoin. I could borrow against
[56:54] it, manage my interest and manage how
[56:57] much I'm borrowing as my paychecks come
[56:59] in. I can pay off any amount of the
[57:03] borrowing I'm doing. I also can
[57:06] refinance the debt. So, we have a uh
[57:10] combine your loans feature coming out in
[57:13] December. I can't wait to combine all my
[57:15] loans and then refinance my loans at an
[57:19] $80,000 price or whatever we're going to
[57:21] be at. That's going to be great for me.
[57:23] And then again, what we have coming
[57:25] soon. So, first of all, we're bringing
[57:28] lending everywhere in America. Uh we do
[57:31] believe we will be in New York hopefully
[57:34] before this year is over. Fingers
[57:35] crossed. And we will have loans
[57:37] everywhere in America. So that includes
[57:39] Texas, California, Tennessee, New York.
[57:42] We're very excited about that. After
[57:44] that, we will follow up with a line of
[57:46] credit product, which we're very, very,
[57:49] very excited about. This makes it so
[57:51] that you don't have to take out 12 month
[57:52] duration loans all at once. You can have
[57:56] a set amount of Bitcoin on strike, and
[57:57] then as you need to pay bills, as you
[57:59] need to make a lightning payment, as you
[58:01] need to do stuff, you can even buy
[58:02] Bitcoin with your line of credit as a
[58:04] payment option. So you can we will
[58:07] dynamically extend credit against the
[58:09] Bitcoin you have on the platform so that
[58:11] you're only taking out loans in real
[58:13] time and you can pay that down with your
[58:15] direct deposit. You can pay off the
[58:17] interest with your direct deposit. So it
[58:19] acts more as a realtime loan against
[58:22] your Bitcoin for those that want to live
[58:23] on Bitcoin and don't want to take out
[58:26] massive loans that can risk liquidation
[58:29] on a wick down. People are saying I
[58:30] don't want to take out a large 12-month
[58:32] loan. I'd rather take out microl loans
[58:35] against my Bitcoin, more like a line of
[58:36] credit. So, we're building that yield on
[58:39] cash. So, everyone said, "I do own I do
[58:42] own dollars. I'm not like you. I don't
[58:43] own zero dollars. I would like some
[58:45] yield on my cash. Can you guys give me
[58:47] yield?" We looked into it. In fact, we
[58:49] can probably give you some of the
[58:51] highest yield on cash in the world
[58:54] because we lend to Bitcoiners. We lend
[58:57] to net producers.
[58:59] So, you know, when I pitched this to the
[59:01] company internally, I said, "Listen, you
[59:03] know, a a company that's giving you
[59:05] right now 2 and a half% 3% 3 and a half%
[59:08] yield on cash at, let's say, Robin Hood
[59:11] or Coinbase or whatever these legacy
[59:13] financial institutions. They are doing
[59:16] it because they are sweeping your cash
[59:18] deposits and they're lending it
[59:19] overnight to the Fed. And so, they're
[59:21] effectively lending to the government,
[59:24] okay? And the government is paying them
[59:25] the interest rate, whatever the interest
[59:27] rate is, and they probably keep a little
[59:28] bit to generate revenue. So, whatever,
[59:30] two and a half, three, three and a
[59:31] half%. The government is a broke. The
[59:35] government's broke. The US government
[59:37] can't afford it. So, rates are going to
[59:38] continue to come down to as close to
[59:40] zero as they can possibly get them. And
[59:43] so, your yield on cash through other
[59:45] platforms is going to continue to go
[59:46] down to as close to zero because the
[59:48] government can't afford to borrow from
[59:50] you. Now, Bitcoiners are borrowing from
[59:54] strike at 9, 10, 11%. Bitcoiners can
[59:58] afford that. Why? Because they're net
[60:00] producers to society. They have excess
[60:02] cash flow that they invest in Bitcoin.
[60:04] The Bitcoin, their savings is
[60:06] compounding at 50% a year on average.
[60:08] That means their net worth is doubling
[60:10] every 18 months.
[60:13] So, we are lending to the net producers
[60:17] of society, the savers, the new wealth
[60:20] class. These people can afford it. They
[60:23] can afford it. And so what we do to
[60:26] offer our lending product is we talk to
[60:28] institutions around the world and we
[60:30] say, "We have a class of Bitcoiners that
[60:32] want to borrow a ton of money against
[60:34] their Bitcoin. If you give us your cash,
[60:36] we'll give you whatever five, six, 7%,
[60:40] 8%, 9%. It depends on the size and
[60:43] depends on all sorts of stuff." And so
[60:45] when I talked to the company internally,
[60:46] I said, "If people really want yield on
[60:48] cash, it was a weird weird feature for
[60:50] me because I don't have any cash." I'm
[60:51] like, "Who what Bitcoiner actually wants
[60:53] this feature? Does anyone still own
[60:55] dollars?" And they're like, "Yeah, well,
[60:56] we did customer research and you're kind
[60:58] of one of the only people in the world
[60:59] that actually owns no dollars." Said,
[61:01] "Wow, okay, that's weird." But anyway,
[61:04] fine. If they want yield on cash, let's
[61:06] offer this deal that we do to these
[61:08] massive institutions and banks. Let's
[61:10] offer it to our customers. If our
[61:11] customers have cash on the platform and
[61:13] they want yield on it, we can put their
[61:15] cash into the pool of capital that's
[61:17] lent out to Bitcoiners
[61:19] overcolateralized. So, it's a severely
[61:22] overcolateralized loan. It's not like
[61:23] there's risk or rehypothecation or
[61:25] anything. It's like, yes, I would like
[61:27] to get five, six, 7% yield on my cash.
[61:31] And then if you want to withdraw it, you
[61:32] hit withdraw. We take your cash out of
[61:35] that pool. We give it back to you. We
[61:37] replace the cash that you had in there
[61:39] getting yield with a bank's cash and
[61:41] voila. And so as the interest rates come
[61:44] down, our yield on cash will always be
[61:47] substantially higher. We'll probably go
[61:48] to market at five or six or seven or 8%
[61:51] yield on cash while other financial
[61:53] institutions are giving you 3% yield on
[61:56] cash, 2% yield on cash. We'll be able to
[61:58] more than double them. And again, it's
[62:00] because we're building a better bank. A
[62:03] bank for Bitcoiners, a bank for the net
[62:05] producers of society, a bank for the new
[62:08] wealth class. These people are working
[62:10] hard, saving money, and those savings
[62:13] are appreciating. Really cool stuff. And
[62:16] then we're looking into the first ever
[62:18] Bitcoin secured credit card. Um, so
[62:22] really fun uh talking to Visa about
[62:24] that. And I know you guys really want
[62:26] it. Um, you know, there's I'm still not
[62:29] 100% sold on it. So, keep commenting,
[62:32] you know, internally. We're debating
[62:34] back and forth, but um, we're really
[62:37] looking into it. So, anyway, we really
[62:39] are, and all of this is coming like in
[62:41] the next few months. Like, we are, you
[62:43] know, how we how we are at strike. Ship,
[62:46] ship, ship, ship. Stay humble, ship the
[62:48] road map, stay focused, no distractions.
[62:52] And so, really, really excited. I'm glad
[62:56] that everyone's starting to see the
[62:57] vision here. You know, for the life of
[63:00] me, I've been trying to explain what
[63:01] we're doing at Strike for a while. It
[63:02] feels like it's finally clicking. We're
[63:05] building the global bank on top of
[63:07] Bitcoin, and we're able to offer higher
[63:09] yield on cash because of it. We're able
[63:11] to offer a savings account that's
[63:13] appreciating 50% a year on average. It
[63:15] means your network's doubling every 18
[63:17] months, every year and a half. You can
[63:19] direct deposit your paychecks, pay your
[63:20] bills, and then once you get a line of
[63:22] credit and you got a credit card against
[63:24] that, I mean, it's going to be the best
[63:26] financial account in the world. Already
[63:28] kind of is for me. I mean, I'm living on
[63:29] it. It's amazing. I mean, banks banks
[63:33] don't like me and built my own bank.
[63:34] [ __ ] you. Although, we're not
[63:37] technically a bank. I have to be careful
[63:38] with that. So, disclaimer, I mean bank
[63:41] in the metaphorical sense, like with the
[63:43] features we offer and stuff. We're not
[63:45] licensed as a bank, to be clear. Shout
[63:48] out our regulators. If you guys are
[63:50] tuning into the show, that's amazing.
[63:52] Much love. Uh and then 21, we're uh
[63:55] rapidly approaching our December 3rd
[63:58] date, shareholder vote. So, very
[64:00] exciting. And you guys know how this
[64:01] goes. I'm not going to risk running my
[64:03] mouth um before that date. Don't make
[64:06] any sense. Okay.
[64:09] What do we timewise?
[64:11] It was about an hour. So, I read through
[64:13] all your guys' comments. You said,
[64:15] "Whoever said to shorten these episodes,
[64:18] give them the bird. Screw them. Tell
[64:21] them to take a hike. Uh, we want the
[64:24] long episodes." So, I will gear these
[64:26] towards longer episodes. This one was
[64:28] not short, not long because it is
[64:31] Thanksgiving week. I'm visiting family.
[64:34] Um, Dollar Bill and the Bitcoin mom are
[64:39] over uh with my girlfriend right now.
[64:43] And so I couldn't make this one three
[64:44] hours. Well, I could do whatever the
[64:46] [ __ ] I want. I just didn't want to. Um,
[64:49] so family, man. Family's important. Uh,
[64:52] I don't live in the same state as my
[64:53] parents. So, I really value the time I
[64:55] get to spend with them. So, uh, this one
[64:58] was a medium length, but once, you know,
[65:00] once I'm back home from the holidays,
[65:02] we'll I'll I'll give you guys You guys
[65:04] want a three-hour episode? You know, I
[65:06] like to talk. I'll give you a three-hour
[65:08] episode. Um, so that will be no problem.
[65:10] Okay, let me um I'm sure you guys have a
[65:14] million questions. Let me pull up the
[65:16] chat on my phone. See what you guys are
[65:19] saying. Longer episodes are the best. I
[65:21] prefer short episodes. See, man, you
[65:24] guys are complicated. Um,
[65:28] all right. Let me pull up Dylan's uh
[65:36] document of your questions and we'll do
[65:38] some live Q&A.
[65:40] I got a little bit of time.
[65:43] Um, okay.
[65:46] Macro questions. Can we talk more about
[65:48] the global impact of BTC versus just the
[65:51] US? Why is the price just always talked
[65:54] about in the context of the United
[65:55] States? Just because the United States
[65:57] is the reverse currency. I think they
[66:00] meant the reserve currency. Um, it's
[66:04] talked about in the United States. Yes.
[66:05] Because the US is the reserve currency.
[66:07] And also because the US is the most
[66:09] indebted country, $38 trillion of debt.
[66:12] It juices the most liquidity into the
[66:14] financial markets. I mean, the entire
[66:16] global financial market revolves around
[66:18] the United States. You're right, though.
[66:20] I mean, there's ton of tons of
[66:22] storylines like France is about to
[66:24] implode and Europe is screwed. They're
[66:26] going to have to print a ton of money.
[66:28] So, there's all sorts of headlines. I
[66:30] think this show revolves around the
[66:33] United States primarily because I'm
[66:35] American. Um, and so I'm just talking
[66:38] about my own lived experiences and
[66:40] interests and also because it is the
[66:42] reserve currency and it is the most
[66:44] indebted country. We are living through
[66:46] a sovereign crisis and yeah anyway so
[66:50] kind of a combination of I'm American. I
[66:53] can speak towards my experience and my
[66:55] expertise and my interests and because
[66:57] it is the center of the financial
[66:59] universe.
[67:00] I don't know if that suffices um or
[67:03] answers your question, but there's I
[67:05] mean sovereign debt crisis everywhere.
[67:07] China has to print a lot of money.
[67:08] Japan's collapsing. Europe is probably
[67:10] as [ __ ] as it's been I don't know in a
[67:14] long time. So, not good.
[67:18] Uh okay, next question. Yo, Jack, what
[67:21] are your thoughts on the staggering
[67:23] accumulation of Bitcoin and when do you
[67:25] think we will reach a supply shock? if
[67:27] you believe that supply shock is even
[67:28] possible.
[67:30] I mean, you know, Bitcoin does this
[67:32] thing where it goes from it goes into
[67:35] extreme price discovery. And the very
[67:38] interesting thing about this is Bitcoin
[67:40] is the only asset where more demand
[67:42] cannot find more supply. Okay, so what
[67:46] do I mean by that? If the world wants
[67:49] more gold and they're willing to send
[67:51] gold to $20,000 an ounce, Elon Musk said
[67:54] he'll go get more gold from Mars, right?
[67:57] There's more gold in the ground. A lot
[67:59] of the existing gold supply has not been
[68:01] mined because it's uneconomical to do
[68:03] so. Once we get a higher price, we can
[68:05] find more supply. If everyone in the
[68:07] world wanted an iPhone, Apple would make
[68:10] 8 billion iPhones. If everyone in the
[68:12] world wanted a McDonald's cheeseburger,
[68:14] McDonald's would make 8 billion
[68:16] cheeseburgers. So the point is with more
[68:18] demand more supply except for a few
[68:22] things in life. One of those things is
[68:24] time right with more demand I can't find
[68:28] more supply of my life.
[68:31] You know one of the beauties of life is
[68:35] that I know I'm going to die. And that's
[68:37] actually, you know, that level of
[68:39] scarcity is extremely empowering and
[68:42] extremely important
[68:44] because it's the it's it's the reason
[68:46] that I get up and catch the sunrise.
[68:49] It's the reason I go to the gym every
[68:52] day. It's the reason I'm going to plan
[68:54] my wedding and I'm going to get married
[68:55] and have kids, right? Cuz think about
[68:57] it, guys. If I was never going to die,
[69:00] I'd get married in 10,000 years. I'd go
[69:02] to the gym in a million years. I'd have
[69:04] kids in 10 million years. I'd catch the
[69:06] sunrise in a billion years. Who cares?
[69:09] How do you value today?
[69:12] The promise of death is what gives our
[69:15] life value. Now, what's another thing
[69:17] where no amount of demand, no matter how
[69:20] bad I want it, I can't create more
[69:22] supply. Bitcoin.
[69:24] What death means to life, Bitcoin means
[69:28] to money. Meaning, it doesn't matter how
[69:31] much demand the world has for Bitcoin.
[69:33] We can't dig it out of the ground. We
[69:35] can't make more in a factory. We can't
[69:37] toss a bunch of Bitcoin on the grill and
[69:38] serve it with cheese in a bun.
[69:42] So all the demand for Bitcoin, they have
[69:45] to find a higher price.
[69:49] So what we see in price discovery for
[69:51] Bitcoin is every single time there is a
[69:55] supply shock,
[69:57] it sends Bitcoin
[69:59] to levels in which the existing market
[70:03] is willing to sell.
[70:05] So, you get new supply of Bitcoin, not
[70:07] out of the ground, not out of a factory,
[70:09] but from existing holders, from people
[70:12] like us. Like, at what price would I be
[70:14] willing to go into my cold card and sell
[70:17] you some Bitcoin? And for me, it's like,
[70:19] you'd have to give me the Chicago Bulls
[70:22] to get some of my cold storage, but
[70:25] there's a price. If you give me the
[70:26] Chicago Bulls and the Chicago Bears,
[70:30] I'll grab one of my cold cards, you
[70:33] know?
[70:35] And so anyways, we see supply shocks all
[70:38] the time. And what's really interesting
[70:39] in Bitcoin is eventually the price gets
[70:41] to a point where people are willing to
[70:43] walk over to their cold storage and
[70:45] deposit onto something like Strike and
[70:47] sell. And that's when you find an
[70:49] all-time high,
[70:52] you know. So, we see this all the time.
[70:55] And I expect
[70:57] Bitcoin to go into price discovery in
[70:59] 2026. I mean, I just again, guys, it's a
[71:02] liquidity game. It's a liquidity game.
[71:05] If they decided to print the money right
[71:06] now, I'd expect all-time highs in
[71:08] December. If it's going to be this like
[71:11] gradual deregulation, the Fed's going to
[71:14] pause QT, start 2026. But, you know, I
[71:18] do expect a supply shock where the
[71:20] market is going to seek out where is the
[71:23] supply within the existing holders. At
[71:26] what price are these holders going to
[71:28] walk over to their cold card and get a
[71:30] house, get a car, pay off debt, put
[71:32] their kids through college, buy the
[71:34] bulls, whatever that is, right?
[71:40] Okay. Next question. In your opinion,
[71:42] why aren't more institutions or banks or
[71:44] companies with large balances not
[71:46] adopting Bitcoin? If you're big enough,
[71:47] can't you just turn the tide to win as a
[71:50] first mover? Yeah. I I mean, you kind of
[71:54] seen that a little bit. Um why are they
[71:59] not
[72:00] um
[72:03] It's interesting. So, like take a big
[72:06] tech like Meta for example.
[72:10] They're not um Yeah, I'm reading the the
[72:15] live chat. Um it is funny that it's the
[72:18] Chicago Bulls and the Bears. So, bulls,
[72:20] bears, bull and bear cycles. Yeah, you
[72:24] guys are saying I can't buy the bears
[72:26] because that would be bearish.
[72:28] I had to read that out loud. That's
[72:29] hilarious. Um anyway, okay. Uh why would
[72:35] um why doesn't Mark Zuckerberg buy a
[72:37] bunch of Bitcoin and be a first mover?
[72:39] Well, the reason is kind of funny
[72:42] because his shareholders and his stock
[72:46] is so sensitive to the operating
[72:49] business. And so if he turned it into
[72:52] Bitcoin exposure, he would probably lose
[72:54] a lot of shareholders and a lot of
[72:55] investors. And this is
[72:58] in part the problem with the public
[73:00] markets is you're so beholden to the
[73:03] shortterm price of the stock. Like
[73:05] [snorts]
[73:06] you know I have a you know mentor that
[73:09] told me once it's really difficult to
[73:12] build in the public markets because if
[73:14] they don't like your stock for one
[73:15] quarter let's say one quarter you're
[73:17] building for low time preference. They
[73:19] wanted high time preference and they
[73:21] start shorting the stock. The stock
[73:22] price goes down. All your employees are
[73:24] compensated in the stock. They quit.
[73:26] They go to competitors. You have lesser
[73:28] talent. You're weak unemployment. Then
[73:30] you don't achieve your milestones. Then
[73:32] you stop velocity on the product. and
[73:34] then the whole company kind of cascades
[73:36] down into irrelevancy. And so, you know,
[73:39] you have to build towards what the
[73:41] public markets want as opposed to what
[73:43] you want. And so, kind of balancing
[73:45] those two interests is very difficult.
[73:47] And so, a big tech company would have a
[73:50] pretty challenging time saying like,
[73:52] hey, we really believe in Bitcoin.
[73:54] Because, you know, half the market might
[73:56] say, oh my gosh, that's way too risky. I
[73:58] just wanted positive cash flow, high
[74:00] growth tech. like now I'm going to, you
[74:04] know, take it out of my index. Now I'm
[74:06] going to stop recogni recommending it to
[74:08] my portfolio managers. Blah blah blah
[74:10] blah blah and it might crash the stock,
[74:12] crash the stock. Now someone with low
[74:14] time preference would say, I don't give
[74:15] a [ __ ] about your opinions about my
[74:17] company. It's my company. I'm going to
[74:19] do what I want. But then the stock
[74:21] crashes, then the employees all leave
[74:23] because their compensation is now well
[74:25] below market. They go to competitors.
[74:27] You can't build and ship products. Your
[74:28] growth stalls. And so it's this kind of
[74:30] weird chicken and egg where it's well
[74:33] once Bitcoin gets reasonably accepted by
[74:36] the market, you'll probably start to see
[74:38] these larger players adopt it slowly but
[74:41] surely. But once Bitcoin's reasonably
[74:43] accepted by the market, it surely won't
[74:46] be as asymmetric of an opportunity. And
[74:48] so that's where folks like us listening
[74:51] to this show and 21 come in is that
[74:54] we're willing, the way I view 21 is
[74:56] we're willing to be the company that
[74:58] says, "Listen, the world we're in today
[74:59] is [ __ ] up. The world we're going is
[75:02] prosperous. It's amazing. There's
[75:04] sunlight, green grass, family,
[75:06] population growth, housing, wealth.
[75:08] That's the Bitcoin world. Fix the money,
[75:11] fix the world. And we're going to build
[75:12] a bridge between the world today and the
[75:15] world where we're going. and we're gonna
[75:17] stand in the middle of that bridge and
[75:18] show you guys it's not gonna break and
[75:21] that Bitcoin works and that you too can
[75:24] walk this bridge. But then by the time
[75:26] everyone starts to walk the bridge and
[75:28] it becomes norm to walk the bridge and
[75:30] the bridge is safe, then yes, Facebook
[75:33] will feel comfortable adding it, but
[75:35] then Bitcoin will be a million dollars a
[75:37] coin,
[75:39] right? Does that make sense? So there's
[75:42] probably there's all sorts of reasons.
[75:44] I'll stop my answer there, but uh
[75:46] there's a lot of reasons and uh that
[75:49] though is probably the most interesting
[75:50] because just the way the public markets
[75:52] work.
[75:53] Uh how about credit card without
[75:55] partnering with legacy payment rails
[75:57] like Visa? Why do you need Visa? Um I
[76:00] mean not to sound like a dick, but you
[76:03] can't launch a card without a card
[76:05] network, bro. Like what do you mean?
[76:11] Like what are we talking about?
[76:16] Not trying to sound like an [ __ ] but
[76:18] you know, a card has to be launched on a
[76:20] card network. I mean, the the the real
[76:22] answer is these card networks have built
[76:26] the infrastructure
[76:28] to allow you to swipe your card. So, I
[76:30] mean, we could launch lightning
[76:33] payments, which we did, though. We
[76:36] already did that.
[76:38] So,
[76:40] oh [ __ ] I forgot to blow up my face.
[76:44] The editor is going to be pissed at me.
[76:47] Um, we already did lightning payments
[76:51] and now Square's rolling them out, so
[76:53] that's good. But
[76:55] anyway, you need Visa or Mastercard to
[76:58] have a card program. There's no such
[77:01] thing as having one without them. I
[77:02] don't even know how
[77:04] that's not that's not physically
[77:06] possible.
[77:08] Um, so
[77:12] it's it's like, yo, why don't you just
[77:15] be alive without water? It's like, well,
[77:18] I mean, I could try, but I would just
[77:20] die, you know? I need I need water. So,
[77:25] anyway,
[77:27] kind of makes me sound like an [ __ ]
[77:28] but that's just the truth. Uh
[77:32] um, how do you pay bills with only
[77:34] Bitcoin?
[77:36] Strike has this feature where you can
[77:39] pay bills. So again, Strike has an
[77:41] account and routing number. So I hook my
[77:43] Strike account up like it is a bank
[77:45] account to my credit card. I pay my HOA.
[77:49] Uh what else do I pay? My electricity
[77:52] bill. Um
[77:55] that's pretty much it. I'm trying to
[77:57] think. Um whatever though your if you
[78:00] had a car, whatever. You pay anything
[78:02] with it. And there's a setting inside
[78:05] Strike where Strike will pay your bills
[78:08] with either your Bitcoin or your fiat.
[78:10] And you get to choose which one. And the
[78:13] best is going to be the line of credit
[78:16] when I say I want to pay all my bills by
[78:19] Strike extending a realtime credit line
[78:22] against my Bitcoin. So I don't have to
[78:24] sell my Bitcoin, but I don't have to
[78:25] hold fiat. It just creates a mini loan
[78:28] in real time to cover my mortgage or
[78:30] cover my car loan or cover the dinner
[78:32] I'm ordering. Now, that is going to be
[78:34] incredibly cool. But if you wanted to
[78:36] use Bitcoin, you would just set the
[78:38] setting to pay all my bills with Bitcoin
[78:40] and hook up your Strike account to the
[78:42] places you need to pay bills. Boom.
[78:44] Capiche. Done. Easy.
[78:47] Um, are there Strike features that allow
[78:50] you to auto add collateral, combine
[78:53] refinance multiple loans into a single
[78:55] loan? So, we are launching the ability
[78:57] to combine multiple loans into a single
[78:59] loan. I believe that feature comes out
[79:01] in December and it's already November
[79:04] 24th. So it comes out in it's we're
[79:06] weeks away. You can refinance loans
[79:10] today. You have to refinance them
[79:12] independently. So what I talked about
[79:13] earlier I'm very excited about. I'm
[79:15] going to comb I have three active loans
[79:17] right now. I can't wait to combine them
[79:19] all and then refinance them at this
[79:21] price. Um it's going to be awesome. So
[79:25] that's good. Uh that'll be weeks away.
[79:28] And then auto add collateral. I don't
[79:30] know what you mean by that. Um, you
[79:34] know, obviously
[79:35] we can't like autopull from your cold
[79:38] storage. That would not be good. And
[79:40] that's also physically impossible. So,
[79:43] no, but I'm not totally sure what you
[79:45] mean by that. But if there are future
[79:47] requests, as you guys know, just leave
[79:48] them in the comments. We uh we're always
[79:50] listening. Oh, yeah. You guys like how I
[79:52] got my headphones set up? It's a tough
[79:54] gig. I'm trying to make it so that you
[79:58] guys can hear me without it rubbing on
[80:01] my face or my hoodie.
[80:04] Um, whatever. Not a professional podcast
[80:06] here.
[80:07] Um, loan consolidation will be available
[80:10] before Oh, whoops. That was from my
[80:13] colleague. That was what I was supposed
[80:14] to say. I thought that was a question
[80:17] here. We don't have Okay, got it. Um, so
[80:21] for California loans, end of the month
[80:23] or like beginning of the month and idea
[80:25] on what minimums would be. Our goal for
[80:28] California loans is before the end of
[80:30] the year.
[80:32] I think
[80:34] t I know my colleague is going to be
[80:36] pissed if I say this. I think the goal
[80:39] is December 9th,
[80:43] but I don't know these dates move, but I
[80:46] would say second third week of
[80:50] December for California for every for
[80:54] for every
[80:56] um everywhere in the US. And the minimum
[80:59] for California will be $10,000.
[81:06] Yeah, [snorts] fair. Um, okay. I wanted
[81:09] to ask about Strike's Bitcoin lending
[81:12] service, but I wanted some information
[81:14] first. I thought I would try to get a
[81:16] hold of customer service before I sent
[81:18] Strike over 10 Bitcoin. Yeah. I mean,
[81:22] for those that don't know, let me uh let
[81:25] me pull it up. Actually, my face can go
[81:29] back to small. Oh [ __ ]
[81:33] There we go. Um, for those that don't
[81:36] know, we have a service called Strike
[81:39] Private.
[81:41] Strike.me. Let's go to our website.
[81:45] Uh, private.
[81:47] So, we have this service. It's a white
[81:51] glove concierge service. um it's
[81:55] specifically for high value or high net
[81:57] worth but generally speaking you feel
[82:00] free to reach out and we're happy to
[82:03] walk you through the product. So we also
[82:07] uh in the US we have on call support um
[82:10] so you can call us we will pick up the
[82:12] phone reach out to our support staff our
[82:14] support staff is 247 we have support
[82:17] staff in every time zone around the
[82:19] world so you guys just reach out to us
[82:22] if you're like oh my gosh I don't
[82:23] understand how this works or I want
[82:24] questions or you know what's funny I've
[82:27] actually sat on calls with customers
[82:30] while they open the loan like sometimes
[82:32] people just want to be on a on on a Zoom
[82:35] call or on the phone with me to open up
[82:37] alone because it just makes them feel
[82:38] better. And that's fine. Our job is to
[82:43] make you guys wealthier with Bitcoin.
[82:47] Make your lives better because of
[82:48] Bitcoin. Like we're here to service you.
[82:50] We are that financial institution. So
[82:53] anyways, yeah, just reach out. All good.
[82:56] Um,
[82:58] okay.
[83:00] Next question.
[83:03] Uh,
[83:06] after listening to you for so long, I'm
[83:08] curious why were you banking with Chase
[83:10] when you have no fiat? Yeah, good
[83:12] question. Um, my situation with Chase,
[83:17] my dad has been a private client with
[83:19] Chase for since before I was born. Um,
[83:23] and I got grandfathered into the private
[83:26] client service at Chase because I was
[83:29] like a sub account to his. So, I've been
[83:31] a private client at Chase since I was
[83:33] like 15 or whenever I got my first bank
[83:36] account as a kid. So, I did have no fiat
[83:40] with Chase. But the interesting thing
[83:43] about debanking me is it's not like they
[83:47] So, you know, people have said, "Well,
[83:49] it's because you weren't an active
[83:51] profitable customer for them," which
[83:53] would be very different than claiming
[83:55] that I had suspicious activity on my
[83:56] account. But, nonetheless, let's move on
[83:59] from that.
[84:00] uh they like I am I am a sub account on
[84:06] under my father and again I haven't
[84:09] really used the account especially since
[84:11] I don't own fiat anymore but that's why
[84:13] I had the account so it was just really
[84:15] weird like my dad actually got that
[84:18] letter that said like dear Jack get off
[84:22] of our bank basically and he sent me a
[84:25] picture and he was like what the [ __ ]
[84:26] did you do like am I going to get
[84:28] debanked do. And I was like, I didn't do
[84:30] anything. Like honestly, I thought about
[84:33] it earlier today. Should I just post all
[84:35] my bank statements on the internet so
[84:37] people can see like I did nothing and
[84:41] there's no like suspicious activity. The
[84:43] only activity I've ever done is money
[84:45] would go between Strike and Chase like
[84:49] before we had all these features and
[84:51] stuff. So, that's how that's the story
[84:54] of my account and how I got it and all
[84:58] this stuff. It's not like I opened a
[85:00] Chase account this year because I
[85:01] secretly have a million US dollars that
[85:03] I wasn't telling you guys about. I was
[85:06] like grandfathered into the private
[85:07] client service because my dad and they
[85:11] threw me out of the bank for I don't
[85:14] know why. I mean, it seems pretty
[85:16] obvious and I mean, I told this story to
[85:19] you guys a few episodes ago and it
[85:20] happened. I mean, my dad got the letter
[85:23] in September. Then I walked into the
[85:25] private client team in Chicago and I was
[85:27] like, "Hey, was this a mistake?" And
[85:29] they're like, "Mr. Malers, we can't have
[85:30] anything to do with you. We're not
[85:32] allowed to tell you why." It was weird.
[85:34] It was super weird. Um,
[85:38] now though, with all the stuff coming
[85:39] out about Chase, it seems like it's
[85:42] potentially related to Bitcoin. But
[85:45] anyway, that's what happened. Um, you
[85:48] guys know how I feel about it. I didn't
[85:51] I wasn't sad. I framed it. Um it's
[85:55] actually I'm such an idiot. It's over.
[85:58] It's in a different part of the house. I
[86:01] should just go grab it, but it would
[86:02] take me literally five minutes to run
[86:05] and grab it and get it back. Um
[86:11] damn.
[86:13] I'll show it to you guys next episode.
[86:17] Um, okay. Question for Jack. How has the
[86:20] carnivore diet changed or improved your
[86:22] health? What have you noticed, positive
[86:23] or negative? Oh, good question.
[86:27] Um, so I'll tell you guys um my So some
[86:32] of you guys I will say this. I almost
[86:35] don't want to talk about my dietary
[86:36] choices because the story I told you
[86:38] guys of how I was carrying two pounds of
[86:40] McDonald's patties through the caner
[86:41] conference. You guys were all in the com
[86:44] comments like that's not high quality
[86:46] beef.
[86:48] You're and like carnivore is really bad
[86:51] for you. You should be vegan. So, you
[86:54] know, I'm going to regret talking about
[86:56] my dietary choices. Um, but I do think
[86:59] it's I think most of the Bitcoiners will
[87:01] find this interesting. So, the thing
[87:03] that really sold me on carnivore is I
[87:05] was talking to um who is now like my
[87:08] carnivore coach because I I really was
[87:11] interested in the science and I really
[87:13] wanted to get it right and and give it a
[87:15] try because here's the here's the deal,
[87:16] guys. You could try anything for a
[87:18] month, okay? give me a [ __ ] break
[87:21] that I would try vegan for a month,
[87:23] carnivore for a month, anything for a
[87:25] month. Experiment for yourself, have
[87:27] your own opinions, be curious. Like,
[87:29] that's very much what I stand for. And
[87:31] so, I really was interested in
[87:33] carnivore. And so, I [snorts] was
[87:35] talking to this guy who's now my coach,
[87:36] and he made this point to me where he
[87:38] said, you know, the human energy source
[87:41] is calories, right? Your calorie intake
[87:44] is how you source energy for your body.
[87:48] And he made the point that said, you
[87:50] know, what's really backwards is humans
[87:53] today, in order to look good and think
[87:56] that they're in optimal health, they
[87:58] restrict their calories. So they calorie
[88:00] count and they're like, I'm going to eat
[88:02] 1,800 calories. I'm going to run long
[88:05] miles, and I'm going to drink a bunch of
[88:07] caffeine, which is going to suppress my
[88:10] appetite. So, appetite suppressants and
[88:14] fake energy stimulants like coffee,
[88:18] and I'm gonna suppress my actual natural
[88:20] energy source, which is calories. And he
[88:23] said, you know, as a Bitcoiner, can you
[88:25] imagine if Bitcoin was like, "No, no, we
[88:29] don't want a certain amount of energy on
[88:31] the network." Or, can you imagine if the
[88:33] United States said, "No, no, no. That's
[88:36] too much energy. People are flying too
[88:38] many planes. They're washing too many
[88:40] clothes. They're watching too much TV.
[88:42] They're taking too many Ubers. We need
[88:44] people to be kayaking to Europe. We need
[88:46] people to be handwashing their clothes.
[88:48] He's like, "Of course not. Energy is
[88:51] the, you know, it's the resource that
[88:53] correlates to prosperous life,
[88:54] prosperous society, prosperous species."
[88:57] And so he says, "The interesting thing
[89:00] is if you put your body in ketosis
[89:03] where it's running on fat as opposed to
[89:06] carbs or sugar. So, it's processing fat
[89:09] as energy. And you train your metabolism
[89:12] in your body to be able to take on tons
[89:15] of calories. Like, what if you could eat
[89:18] 4,000 calories of ribeye in one sitting
[89:21] and your body was able to actually make
[89:24] use of that energy? You'd be able to
[89:26] quit caffeine. You'd be able to work on
[89:29] four hours of sleep. You'd be able to
[89:31] travel better. You'd be a better CEO.
[89:34] And I was like, "Huh, that makes a lot
[89:37] of sense to me. Why do people limit
[89:40] calories and drink a bunch of coffee?
[89:42] They chug black coffee to skip
[89:44] breakfast. That's weird." And so I gave
[89:48] it a try and I quit coffee. I quit. Like
[89:52] all I did was eat meat and eggs. And I
[89:56] can put down two to four pounds of steak
[89:59] in one sitting. I eat once a day.
[90:04] And I'm full of energy. I travel I
[90:07] travel more days out of the year than
[90:09] I'm at home. I run two massive
[90:11] companies. I do it with no caffeine. I
[90:15] do it with one meal a day. And it's
[90:16] because my body is is optimized to take
[90:22] in more energy.
[90:25] And there's all sorts of really
[90:26] interesting science like what it does to
[90:28] my brain, what it does to muscle
[90:31] development. So, I I love running, but
[90:34] I've paired it back a lot and I do more
[90:37] weightlifting, weight training now. So,
[90:39] there's a lot of interesting
[90:41] correlations between muscle growth and
[90:44] longevity.
[90:46] But anyways, and I started wearing an
[90:48] Aura ring and my heart rate and my
[90:51] cardiovascular health was greatly
[90:55] improving and the quality of my sleep
[90:58] without me running and stuff. Like my
[91:00] heart my resting heart rate is like in
[91:03] the low 50s, which is crazy. My HRV is
[91:07] extremely high. My sleep is incredible.
[91:11] And I could run around the world, run
[91:13] multiple companies without coffee,
[91:15] without much sleep sometimes. Like
[91:17] sometimes I'll get on this show and
[91:19] everyone's like, "This guy must have
[91:21] chugged 10 espressos. He's ranting and
[91:23] running around." I don't I'm not taking
[91:25] anything before anything I do. It's all
[91:27] natural. I don't know. Food for thought.
[91:30] It's interesting. Now, do I think
[91:32] everyone should do it? No. You should do
[91:33] whatever you want. You know, some people
[91:35] would rather have pizza than get into
[91:37] the, you know, metabolic science of
[91:39] things. I'm curious. Um, I like being
[91:42] the best version of myself and it's
[91:44] worth giving it a try. Maybe next year I
[91:46] realize it's not for me, but I don't
[91:48] know. I tried it. It It's incredible. I
[91:52] feel great. And um, it makes sense. It
[91:56] reminds me of early Bitcoin where it's
[91:58] like, wait a second. Was everything I
[91:59] was told about health and science a lie?
[92:04] Huh? I should just try it for myself. I
[92:06] should just buy some Bitcoin, make a
[92:07] transaction, buy a hardware wallet,
[92:10] figure it out, track the price a little
[92:12] bit. Same thing. It's just like, okay. I
[92:16] asked this guy, I don't have the time to
[92:18] be like all carnivore researching and
[92:20] stuff. I'm busy. Do you mind being my
[92:22] coach? And he was like, yeah, dude.
[92:25] Let's do it. Let's give it a try.
[92:28] So anyway, for all the folks interested
[92:30] and for all the people in my comments,
[92:32] they're going to kick and scream and
[92:34] moan and cry like a little [ __ ]
[92:37] female dog uh about my diet choices. Um
[92:43] I don't give a [ __ ] [ __ ] you. Uh hey
[92:46] Jack, how are you attacking the
[92:47] Thanksgiving meal this year on
[92:49] carnivore? Well, the first ever quasi
[92:52] carnivore was my dad. I basically lived
[92:55] off my dad's grill growing up. He just
[92:59] made So my dad, we're not a we're not a
[93:02] turkey household or whatever people eat
[93:05] on like nobody wants a weak ass dry ass
[93:08] bird for holiday. Come on. We're
[93:12] supposed to celebrate. We're supposed to
[93:13] be enjoying ourselves. I'm going to eat
[93:16] a weak ass fat ass dry ass bird. No. So,
[93:21] we've got short rib, ribe eyes, roast.
[93:27] We're eating meat in the Mallers's
[93:29] household, in the dollar bill household.
[93:34] So,
[93:36] that's that's our Maybe I'll I'll uh
[93:38] I'll take a picture. I'll put it on
[93:40] Twitter.
[93:44] Um, cool. Well, anyway, also I'm getting
[93:48] a I I get my blood work done a lot, too.
[93:50] Obviously, I'm just interested I'm super
[93:53] interested in
[93:55] uh
[93:57] Oh, [ __ ] I didn't blow up my face. I'm
[94:00] super interested in
[94:02] like truth
[94:05] in real in science. Like, I posted a
[94:08] video today. Let me actually
[94:12] let me show you guys what I posted today
[94:14] and then I'll and then I'll end the
[94:15] stream. But hold on real quick
[94:20] uh
[94:30] this video. Let me play it for you guys
[94:32] real quick.
[94:36] We don't, as society, we've drifted so
[94:39] far away from what's real.
[94:44] We don't use [music] real money anymore.
[94:46] We use printed pieces of paper. In
[94:48] America, we don't eat real food anymore.
[94:50] You look on the back of your [music]
[94:52] groceries, there's 77 ingredients.
[94:54] Metabolic disease is through the roof.
[94:56] Cancer rates have never been higher. And
[94:58] half the country is fat.
[95:00] >> [music]
[95:01] >> Part of what I want to represent is
[95:03] being real. I think humans are a natural
[95:06] byproduct of mother nature. [music] The
[95:08] human story is really like
[95:09] commercializing energy from the sun,
[95:12] [music]
[95:16] being connected to nature, eating real
[95:18] foods, [music] operating around a moral
[95:20] ground of truth, not lying to yourself,
[95:22] not lying to those around you. And so
[95:25] the difference between someone [music]
[95:26] who's, you know, life savings is
[95:27] evaporating um to a point that's making
[95:29] them depressed, suicidal, living a life
[95:33] that they don't enjoy versus [music]
[95:34] savings that are appreciating that's
[95:36] empowering them to have more family,
[95:38] enjoy more housing, invest more [music]
[95:40] in the future that they want to see. The
[95:42] difference between the two is education.
[95:44] Everyone has access to Bitcoin. There's
[95:46] no privileged group that gets access to
[95:48] what we all understand versus other.
[95:50] It's just can you go out and educate it?
[95:52] And I try and do it in a way that's
[95:54] authentic. You know, that's part of the
[95:56] brand with Strike. What we're bringing
[95:58] to Wall Street with 21 is uh authentic
[96:02] [music] truth Bitcoin real. I think
[96:05] we've we've been starved of real.
[96:09] [applause]
[96:13] So anyway, somehow through this like um
[96:18] exploration for real, for truth, for
[96:20] being trying to represent my generation
[96:24] uh in a hopeful way, like we can find
[96:27] our way out of this. Um I think diet I
[96:30] found my way in like the diet rabbit
[96:32] hole or like the health rabbit hole. So
[96:36] when I feel ready, I'll tell you guys
[96:39] more about carnivore and stuff, but I'm
[96:41] still trying. I'm I'm like it's like me
[96:43] and Bitcoin in 2013.
[96:47] But uh it's unbelievable. I mean so far
[96:50] unreal. No caffeine. Sleep incredible.
[96:53] Vital's incredible.
[96:55] I mean everything amazing. Um so and I
[97:00] love steak. Okay. Was there another
[97:03] question, Dylan? I forget. Let me see.
[97:07] I feel like there was. But this is
[97:09] getting really long. Oh, no, there's
[97:11] not. All right. Um, go to a
[97:14] chiropractor.
[97:16] I'm good. Um, all right. I will talk to
[97:18] you guys uh next week. So, between now
[97:22] and then, uh, there's Thanksgiving.
[97:24] Happy Thanksgiving. Unbelievable.
[97:27] Unbelievably thankful for you guys.
[97:30] We're over 40,000 subscribers on
[97:32] YouTube. We had 40,000 views on YouTube
[97:36] alone last week. These are weekly live
[97:38] streams. Um, I mean, me posting that I
[97:41] got debanked by Chase, by Epstein's
[97:44] banker, and you guys rally to have my
[97:47] back. You I mean, this is just the
[97:50] coolest. This is the coolest revolution
[97:53] on the internet. We're like pushing
[97:56] truth, principles, morals, ethics, hard
[97:59] money, proper living, net producing.
[98:02] We're just memeing it with live streams,
[98:05] with software, with free speech on the
[98:08] internet. It's crazy. So, um I don't
[98:11] know. Now's now is the year where you
[98:13] get all sentimental and you look back
[98:14] and appreciate what you're thankful for.
[98:16] So, you guys mean a lot to me even
[98:19] though you make fun of me every week in
[98:21] the comments. Um I love it and I
[98:23] appreciate it and uh I feel very lucky
[98:26] to have kind of tripped into whatever we
[98:28] got going on this show. It's fun. So, I
[98:32] love you guys. Enjoy your Thanksgiving.
[98:34] I hope you're able to close the charts
[98:36] and spend some time. Hopefully, this
[98:38] episode gave you the confidence that the
[98:40] world's not falling apart. We're going
[98:41] to be fine. And uh I will talk to you
[98:44] next week. Blessings. Take care.