Oil, Bonds, and Bitcoin: The Rules Are That There Are No Rules

[0:02] Yo, welcome back to another episode of
[0:06] the Jack Mallers Show. I am your host
[0:10] Jack and you are listening to yet
[0:12] another edition
[0:13] of mailbag
[0:15] Monday, ladies and gentlemen. What a
[0:18] timeline we are living through. Holy
[0:20] [snorts]
[0:21] smokes.
[0:23] It is geopolitical chess.
[0:25] We are seeing a crazy poker match and
[0:28] the only rules is that is that there are
[0:31] no rules.
[0:34] All right, without further ado,
[0:37] let me timestamp this episode. Guys and
[0:40] gals, I talked to you all at a Bitcoin
[0:42] price of $68,860.
[0:46] That puts Bitcoin's market cap at 1.38
[0:50] trillion.
[0:51] Is this the highest Bitcoin's ever been?
[0:52] No. When was the highest Bitcoin's ever
[0:55] been? October 6th, 2025. Funny you ask.
[0:59] I timestamp this every episode. Uh
[1:03] we made an all-time high at $126,160
[1:07] 154 days ago.
[1:10] Bitcoin's 45.4%
[1:12] down from that all-time high.
[1:16] The last Bitcoin block mined
[1:19] since I hit stream, that would be
[1:22] Bitcoin block 939,996.
[1:29] Let me check that this is live and we
[1:31] are on the Yes, we are live.
[1:35] Bad mic?
[1:36] I I I can't listen to the chat. I I
[1:39] heard from Dylan, I can't listen to the
[1:42] chat. I have to just trust myself
[1:46] because you guys in the chat are
[1:47] supposedly trolling me nonstop. I can't
[1:50] open it. I leave it to Dylan. You got to
[1:52] trust in your friends, trust in your
[1:54] teammates. I leave it to Dylan. All
[1:56] right. Uh with that, I checked to see if
[1:59] Dylan messaged me. Nope. This show gets
[2:02] started. All right, boys and girls,
[2:05] here's the deal.
[2:06] The title of today's episode is oil,
[2:08] bonds, and Bitcoin. The rules are that
[2:11] there are no rules. What a timeline
[2:15] we're living through. I continue to
[2:17] believe we are living through the best
[2:19] of timelines. We're going to get into
[2:21] everything that's happening in Iran, in
[2:24] financial markets, with AI.
[2:27] But before we do, I want to give a
[2:30] special shout-out
[2:32] this young gentleman here cooking
[2:35] sourdough bread, okay?
[2:38] I was waking up in the morning,
[2:40] preparing for the show, doing my thing.
[2:43] I have busy Monday mornings. Monday is
[2:45] when I talk to my executive teams at
[2:47] both companies.
[2:49] And then I prepare for the show.
[2:51] And I saw this tweet someone tagged me
[2:52] in said, "Kind of looking forward to
[2:54] waking up at 1:00 a.m. tomorrow to
[2:56] listen to Jack talk about the markets
[2:58] while I get ready to bake 30 breads."
[3:02] I was like, "Dude, this is That is an
[3:04] awesome tweet, first of all. Where the
[3:06] hell are you that it's 1:00 a.m. right
[3:08] now? And what do you mean 30 breads?
[3:11] I've never heard anyone say that, like
[3:12] 30 like loaves of bread?
[3:15] I want to shout you out." And he
[3:17] confirmed it is in fact 30 loaves of
[3:20] fresh sourdough bread. He said every
[3:23] Tuesday and Friday he bakes fresh
[3:25] sourdough in the wood-fire oven to fund
[3:29] his sats habit.
[3:30] 30 days an average day, 50 is his
[3:33] all-time high.
[3:35] So shout-out to this guy. So everyone
[3:37] flood his mentions with, "Yo, let me buy
[3:39] some of that bread. Do you ship?" Um so
[3:42] one, I just wanted a little bit of a
[3:44] wholesome shout-out before we get into
[3:46] things like war, things like
[3:48] geopolitical poker. I mean, we're It's
[3:51] going to This is intense intense time
[3:53] right now. And uh
[3:56] so one, we just want to lead with some
[3:57] love. Lead with some love, lead with
[3:59] some shout-outs. Bitcoiner support
[4:01] Bitcoiners.
[4:03] And so shout-out to you, brother. If you
[4:04] guys eat sourdough, order this dude's
[4:06] bread. I mean, look at that bread.
[4:08] Looks like unbelievable bread. Cozy warm
[4:11] fireplace.
[4:13] Okay. The other thing I wanted to say is
[4:15] I saw some people being like, "You're a
[4:18] public company CEO, don't you have
[4:20] better things to do?"
[4:21] And the answer to that is no, actually.
[4:25] I don't have anything better to do than
[4:28] just be a good dude. Okay? Let me tell
[4:32] you guys something.
[4:33] Um
[4:35] I think that people want to do business
[4:38] with people. Okay? I don't think people
[4:41] like doing business with large
[4:44] corporations that they don't really
[4:45] know, with people that they've never met
[4:47] and feel like they don't understand.
[4:50] I think people like doing business with
[4:51] people. I love local businesses. You
[4:54] ever go to your local brewery or your
[4:56] local steakhouse or this dude baking
[4:59] local bread?
[5:00] And it's awesome. Why is it awesome?
[5:04] Because it's not a large corporate
[5:07] margin optimizing machine.
[5:11] It's got
[5:13] personality and it's got a story
[5:16] and it matters to the people making it.
[5:19] It's got character.
[5:21] And I'll never change from that. Okay?
[5:26] Like when you buy Bitcoin at Strike,
[5:28] you're buying Bitcoin from me. Okay? So
[5:30] people have also said, "How do I support
[5:32] you, Jack? Do you do ads? Can I tip
[5:34] you?" No, if you want to support me, you
[5:38] can use Strike. Buy your Bitcoin on
[5:39] Strike if you want to support me, you
[5:41] know? So anyways, wholesome moment. I
[5:44] think this is an awesome tweet. This guy
[5:47] is awesome. The fact that people are
[5:49] getting ready for work, listening to the
[5:51] show, in the gym, listening to the show.
[5:54] You know, we're just normal people
[5:55] trying to navigate the era that we were
[5:57] born into. We are in unprecedented
[6:00] times. We're trying to save money for
[6:03] our family, for our future. We're trying
[6:04] to fix the money and fix the world
[6:06] together. I'm never going to be better
[6:08] or bigger than that. Absolutely not. In
[6:10] fact, I think that's what's wrong with
[6:12] the world. The world has lost its soul,
[6:14] it's lost its touch, it's lost its
[6:16] character.
[6:17] And so who am I going to be? I'm going
[6:19] to be the podcaster that's just a normal
[6:21] [ __ ] dude, because guess what? We all
[6:23] are. And people that pretend they aren't
[6:24] are full of [ __ ] and full of themselves.
[6:26] Doesn't matter. And I'm only going to
[6:28] build products I use. I'm a customer of
[6:30] all of my products. And if you want to
[6:31] support me, it's like a local business.
[6:33] You can come and use my products. Like
[6:35] if I were running a pizza shop, how
[6:37] would you support me? Come get a slice
[6:38] of pizza. If you want to support me, buy
[6:41] your Bitcoin on Strike. Bitcoiner
[6:43] support Bitcoiners. Shout-out to this
[6:44] dude. This was just a super wholesome
[6:46] moment. This guy's middle of the night
[6:48] baking bread and we're in his ear right
[6:50] now.
[6:51] It's [ __ ] awesome. And if you guys
[6:53] eat sourdough, you should order his
[6:54] sourdough.
[6:56] Okay, another thing before we get into
[6:58] the war and the nitty-gritty in the
[7:00] financial markets and the bond markets.
[7:03] Um
[7:03] I published this episode live to the
[7:06] internet. So I know that you guys are
[7:09] always asking how I'm using AI. AI
[7:11] continues to make me a way more
[7:14] efficient person. It is actually insane
[7:16] how I use AI. It's blowing my mind. So
[7:21] let me actually show you guys. So let's
[7:23] go to localhost. What port was I running
[7:25] this on? 3000? So I built a tool this
[7:28] morning called JMS Resources, which
[7:30] allows me to actually upload my
[7:32] resources to my tool and build a source
[7:35] URL. I have some tags and some notes to
[7:38] it and it's This is the entire episode
[7:40] today, all of these resources here.
[7:42] And what this allows me to do is
[7:44] actually host the show online because
[7:47] you guys said you really wanted to be
[7:49] able to use the slides on your own or
[7:52] you wanted to be able to link to your
[7:53] own or or link from my where I'm linking
[7:57] tweets or linking articles. You guys
[7:59] want to be able to find the sources I'm
[8:01] using. So you can go to JMS, stands for
[8:04] the Jack Mallers Show. So
[8:05] jms.jackmallers.com/the
[8:09] episode number. So this is 108. And all
[8:12] of the slides are here. And actually, I
[8:14] link the sources. So you can click into
[8:16] the sources and it'll take you to the
[8:18] tweet or it'll take you to the article I
[8:19] used. So I will now upload all of my
[8:24] episodes live to the internet at
[8:26] jms.jackmallers.com/episode
[8:29] number. And it will link to all of my
[8:32] sources. So it'll link to how to sign up
[8:34] to Luke Luke's newsletter.
[8:36] Um all of I I sign up to all sorts of
[8:39] macro research. Um I obviously have a
[8:42] curated Twitter feed. And so I know that
[8:44] that was a request from you guys. And so
[8:46] you guys can check this out uh at
[8:48] jms.jackmallers.com/108
[8:51] for today's episode. And I'll continue
[8:53] to use AI to like build insanely cool
[8:56] [ __ ] And I continue uh to encourage you
[8:59] guys to do the same. Cool?
[9:02] Okay, with that, let's get into chapter
[9:05] one.
[9:06] Oil, war, and chaos. Sunday night
[9:09] futures and the biggest oil reversal in
[9:12] history. What am I talking about?
[9:15] Late last night when futures markets
[9:18] opened, oil went on a tear, okay? It
[9:21] broke through 100, it gapped all the way
[9:24] up to I think 1 130 140, maybe? I don't
[9:29] know if it got that high, but it started
[9:32] to look like gas was going to be $5
[9:35] a gallon. It was It was bad. It was bad.
[9:38] I mean, everyone was writing and
[9:39] estimating what inflation was going to
[9:41] be in prediction markets and chances of
[9:44] over 3 and 1/2% inflation in 2026 broke
[9:48] 50% for a second. Markets started to
[9:50] really really freak out. Um
[9:54] as I record to you now, I think the
[9:56] screenshot on the right is outdated. Um
[9:59] when I screen took the screenshot on the
[10:01] right for this episode, oil had fallen
[10:03] back below $100 a barrel. Uh and I think
[10:07] oil now has an eight in front of it. I
[10:10] think oil is in the 80s and has entirely
[10:13] erased the entire move late Sunday
[10:17] night. Okay? Really quick on this,
[10:21] I just want to make the observation that
[10:24] um in my opinion, what Iran is doing is
[10:27] they're choosing inflation over nuclear
[10:30] weapons.
[10:31] What do I mean by that? Well, as we'll
[10:33] get into in the episode, I think that
[10:36] there is some very serious political
[10:38] geopolitical games being played here
[10:40] between nation states, very serious. I
[10:42] actually cannot believe the United
[10:45] States is engaging in this and isn't and
[10:47] is doing this. I am concerned, I would
[10:51] say. Um to just broadly state, I am a
[10:55] little concerned.
[10:56] Um
[10:57] the way that Iran is quote unquote
[11:00] fighting back is lesser with nuclear,
[11:04] right? That's the claim from the West is
[11:05] that Iran has all these nuclear
[11:07] capabilities, they're going to out
[11:09] they're they're out to blow up the whole
[11:10] world.
[11:11] Um they're fighting back with the oil
[11:14] price. Okay? They're effectively saying,
[11:17] in more or less words, which we'll get
[11:18] into detail later in the in the show,
[11:20] Iran's fight back is we're going to
[11:23] close the Strait of Hormuz, which we've
[11:26] all talked about last episode.
[11:28] That's going to jack the oil price up.
[11:30] The oil price up is the price of energy.
[11:32] The price of energy causes inflation.
[11:36] Okay? You cannot tame and fight
[11:38] inflation if you don't have cheap access
[11:40] to energy, period. I don't care who you
[11:42] are, where you are.
[11:43] Okay?
[11:44] So, the US would get shocking amounts of
[11:47] inflation if these oil prices continue
[11:49] to trend higher.
[11:52] And Iran is effectively saying the US
[11:55] can't afford this war.
[11:56] They can't afford it politically cuz
[11:58] they cannot afford another bout of
[12:00] record-breaking inflation, and they
[12:02] can't afford it fiscally because the US
[12:04] is already about $40 trillion in debt,
[12:07] and the 10-year is still over 4%, and
[12:10] the bond market is not actually
[12:12] supportive of this war. We'll talk about
[12:14] it later, but for the first time in
[12:16] history, or at least in modern history,
[12:19] bond yields are going higher, not lower.
[12:22] The bonds are not the safe haven. The US
[12:24] has no way to cheaply borrow to finance
[12:26] this. And so, Iran's fight back is
[12:29] through the oil price. They're saying,
[12:31] "We can outlast what you can afford."
[12:35] We think that this is going to be days
[12:36] or weeks, and even if it's months, we
[12:38] can outlast it because Taco Trump always
[12:41] chickens out. You guys can't afford it.
[12:43] Trump prides himself bragadociously
[12:46] about being the art of the deal guy, and
[12:49] Iran isn't buying it and is fighting
[12:51] back through the oil price. That's a key
[12:53] theme. So, on the back of that, let's
[12:56] take a look at how volatile the
[12:59] underbelly of the US actually is cuz I
[13:01] would say it's very volatile. Things are
[13:04] looking very concerning. So, this the
[13:06] S&P 500 had its first 5% correction
[13:08] since November. The stock market doesn't
[13:11] look healthy. It doesn't look good. And
[13:14] it's kind of this perfect storm of
[13:17] ingredients. Cuz on one hand, you have
[13:20] this war,
[13:21] which is incredibly destabilizing. And
[13:24] the other thing about the war, guys, is
[13:26] as I've said before, this fiat
[13:30] this fiat monetary system that we've
[13:32] built over time, us being the United
[13:35] States, it's a giant Ponzi scheme. And
[13:38] it's a giant Ponzi scheme because the
[13:40] people that largely own US assets like
[13:45] US stocks,
[13:46] like US Treasuries,
[13:49] these are foreigners that we have been
[13:52] importing from. So, the game is we print
[13:55] dollars, we export those dollars to
[13:57] these foreigners.
[13:59] The foreigners export in return things
[14:03] like chips, manufacturing materials,
[14:06] food, oil to the United States. So, the
[14:08] United States is not a net producer.
[14:11] They're not productive. They run massive
[14:13] deficits.
[14:15] And we just export this printed
[14:17] currency, and we import all this real
[14:19] stuff. So, that creates a trade
[14:21] imbalance. That means that we get a
[14:24] bunch of stuff, and the world gets a
[14:25] bunch of dollars. Now, what does the
[14:27] world do with all those dollars? They
[14:29] need to buy US assets. It's like getting
[14:31] a bunch of US store credits in return
[14:34] for oil, food, manufacturing goods. And
[14:37] so, what do you buy with US store
[14:38] credits?
[14:39] Uh I might as well take a little bit of
[14:40] Google, Nvidia, Amazon. Yeah, if I get,
[14:43] I'll buy some T-bills. I'll buy some US
[14:45] Treasuries, right?
[14:47] And so, if capital is returning home, if
[14:51] collateral needs to be sold to finance
[14:54] war, to finance higher energy prices,
[14:58] what gets sold off? What is the world
[15:01] collateralized by? Well, US assets. And
[15:04] so, stock market starts to see a lot of
[15:07] pressure during times like this because
[15:10] it's what the world owns as collateral
[15:13] in the system, which is really not good.
[15:16] That's bad. That's a Ponzi scheme. So,
[15:20] like [laughter] like the the problem has
[15:22] always been Japan can't fall apart
[15:25] because if Japan falls apart, they sell
[15:27] US Treasuries in the US stock market,
[15:29] which forces us to fall apart. So,
[15:31] everyone has to stand tall, or else no
[15:33] one stands tall. That's always been the
[15:36] Ponzi scheme. That's that's the the
[15:38] domino effect, the deck of cards, the
[15:40] Jenga game where you pull one leg, and
[15:42] the whole thing collapses. Now, on the
[15:44] other side, we have what we've been
[15:46] talking about, this extreme deflationary
[15:48] force,
[15:49] where all of a sudden oops, all of a
[15:51] sudden, AI is taking everyone's job, and
[15:54] the stock market is also facing some
[15:56] headwinds because all of the multiples
[15:58] on these businesses are being highly
[16:00] questioned. For example, all of the
[16:03] FAANG businesses, the you know, Mag 7,
[16:05] the big tech, these are not like
[16:08] insanely high-margin stock buyback
[16:11] companies anymore.
[16:13] You used to be able to kind of sort of,
[16:15] in my opinion, not really, justify these
[16:17] multiples because the margins were so
[16:20] high, and they would take the free cash
[16:22] flow and buy back their stock. So, it
[16:24] was like a cheat code. It was like,
[16:26] "There's going to be demand for the
[16:28] equity because the company that's making
[16:30] so much [ __ ] money is infinitely
[16:32] buying the equity." Cuz they have
[16:33] nothing else to do with the money. They
[16:35] can't invest it like they can't employ
[16:37] planet Earth. There's not enough office
[16:39] space in the world for them to pour in
[16:40] tens of billions of dollars of net
[16:42] profit a year. So, they're just going to
[16:44] buy back the equity in their business
[16:46] because it's better than holding cash or
[16:48] government debt. And so, it was kind of
[16:50] like this hack. It again, it's just all
[16:52] These are all functions of a broken
[16:54] monetary system. But now that that's not
[16:57] how these businesses work anymore,
[16:59] they're not that profitable anymore
[17:00] because they're spending all of that
[17:02] cash flow on physical build-out for AI
[17:04] infrastructure. And so, not only are the
[17:07] is this going to really decrease their
[17:08] margins, it takes them from a
[17:09] capital-light business to a
[17:10] capital-heavy business.
[17:13] But the other thing is there you're
[17:14] reducing the major buyer of the equity
[17:17] itself. People were comfortable buying
[17:19] the equity cuz they knew Google was
[17:20] going to be buying behind them. But if
[17:22] Google's not buying their own equity
[17:23] behind them, the question is who is
[17:24] buying? And if China's not buying, and
[17:27] Russia's not buying, and
[17:28] if Japan's not buying, and Google's not
[17:30] buying, then who's buying? And you're
[17:32] starting to see a lot of weakness here.
[17:34] Okay?
[17:36] So, another really interesting thing we
[17:38] saw is the force majeure from Qatar
[17:41] Energy. So, they declared a force
[17:43] majeure, which is basically we have to
[17:45] seize operations for something like we
[17:49] have to violate a contract for something
[17:51] extraordinary that happened. Okay? So, I
[17:54] have on this slide uh
[17:57] Qatar Energy warns the Gulf is within
[17:59] days of stopping energy exports
[18:01] entirely. The Gulf states are reviewing
[18:03] hundreds of billions in promised US
[18:05] investment commitments. So, the Middle
[18:07] East is reviewing whether they actually
[18:10] want to commit to the AI build-out in
[18:13] the US.
[18:14] And the SPR, the Strategic Petroleum
[18:16] Reserve, is at lows. It's drawn down
[18:20] from midterms. It was never refilled.
[18:22] So, let me pause and explain this slide.
[18:24] So, for one, Qatar Energy warns the Gulf
[18:28] that it's within days from stopping
[18:29] energy exports.
[18:31] I We'll talk about this more throughout
[18:33] the episode, guys. I think that there is
[18:37] um consensus that has been arrived at
[18:39] inaccurately. The consensus is that this
[18:42] quote unquote war
[18:44] is only going to last days, maybe a week
[18:46] or two tops, but this is Trump just
[18:49] bullying Iran,
[18:51] and this is a blip in the timeline.
[18:54] Nobody really cares.
[18:56] Um
[18:57] it's not clear to me that that's right.
[19:00] In fact, I'll show you guys that I think
[19:02] that's really wrong. But one hint is
[19:05] that Qatar Energy would warn the Gulf
[19:07] that it's going to stop energy exports
[19:10] entirely. Okay?
[19:12] Uh
[19:13] also, the US is in an AI race. They've
[19:17] declared that it is a national security
[19:19] threat
[19:21] if we don't win AI.
[19:23] And we now have kind of levered
[19:25] ourselves based on Middle Eastern
[19:27] capital. It's going to be really
[19:29] difficult for us to win this race
[19:31] without the support of the external
[19:33] investments to reindustrialize in the
[19:35] United States. Again, the United States
[19:37] has hollowed itself out over the last 40
[19:40] years. The way I would describe the
[19:42] geopolitical chessboard right now is we
[19:44] are in the middle game. Okay? The
[19:47] opponents are So, the United States and
[19:49] its opponents have played the opening,
[19:51] have entered the middle game, but people
[19:54] have committed to a closed position, to
[19:57] the bishop pair, right? Like like
[19:59] there's chess moves have been played
[20:00] over 40 years.
[20:03] And, you know, the United States is now
[20:06] getting into like very dangerous
[20:08] territory where if they make a mistake,
[20:11] the end game is we're going to be at a
[20:12] disadvantage. It's going to be not so
[20:13] pleasant. And so, the fact that the Gulf
[20:15] states are saying, "Well, hold on a
[20:17] second. We might not want to finance
[20:20] your AI build-out." That's a direct
[20:22] threat to whether the United States can
[20:24] actually win the AI race, cuz over the
[20:27] last 40 years, the United States has
[20:28] hollowed out its manufacturing base, its
[20:32] industrial the it can't it can't easily
[20:34] produce things, physical things. Like if
[20:37] we need to build physical
[20:38] infrastructure, not only do we not have
[20:42] the skills to do that and the capacity
[20:44] to do that, but literally, who's going
[20:47] to be employed to do that? Remember, the
[20:49] United States is a white-collar dominant
[20:51] nation now. We've pushed everyone to the
[20:54] coast to do white-collar finance and
[20:57] tech jobs. We don't have hands
[21:00] craftsmanship like no one's getting paid
[21:02] a quarter million dollars a year to mine
[21:04] rare earths. I'd bet that people would,
[21:07] but there's not a market there. The
[21:08] United States exported all that to
[21:10] China.
[21:11] And so, the fact that the AI race is now
[21:13] being threatened, it's a seriously
[21:15] noteworthy thing. And then, the
[21:17] Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So, I have
[21:19] this chart on here from Luke. So, you
[21:21] can again, you guys can go to the slides
[21:24] on the internet now and click the source
[21:26] if you want to go sign up for Luke's
[21:28] Luke's newsletter. I highly recommend
[21:31] it. Um but this shows you the weekly US
[21:34] stocks of crude oil in the SPR. And you
[21:37] can see where Biden really started to
[21:40] use it in this post-COVID era. So, Biden
[21:43] begins SPR drawdown in history to help
[21:46] contain oil prices post-COVID. And the
[21:50] level the SPR is at now, it was never
[21:52] refilled. And so, we're at like 1980s
[21:57] level of SPR, which again, is not good.
[22:02] Um
[22:03] everyone is also leaving the Middle
[22:06] East. So, check this. We have received
[22:09] info from our sources that Total
[22:11] Energies,
[22:13] Conoco Phillips, and Exxon are
[22:15] evacuating people from Qatar with
[22:17] evacuations planned from the UAE and the
[22:20] KSA.
[22:21] Guys, these companies,
[22:24] these energy producers, these oil
[22:26] majors,
[22:28] they would not leave if this was a
[22:30] one-to-two-day thing, if this was a
[22:32] one-to-two-week thing.
[22:35] Costco Shipping Suspends Booking for
[22:37] Middle East routes amid conflict. Again,
[22:40] these are not things that would happen
[22:43] if the US government is telling them,
[22:45] "Guys, we're ending this in a week.
[22:47] We're ending this in two weeks."
[22:49] This smells to me like this is a
[22:52] sustained war. This might take some
[22:54] time. The US has entered something more
[22:58] serious than people realize.
[23:01] Now, this is just my opinion. This is a
[23:03] gut feeling combined with a bunch of
[23:05] evidence.
[23:07] But we go on, and this is Now, this is
[23:10] from a Middle Eastern news outlet. The I
[23:15] don't I don't think that US media would
[23:16] ever publish this.
[23:18] But check out the headline.
[23:21] Pentagon Prepares for Israeli-US War on
[23:24] Iran That Could Last Until September.
[23:28] A conflict expected to last weeks is now
[23:30] stretching into months and threatening
[23:32] to dominate Donald Trump's president
[23:34] presidency, according to Politico.
[23:37] Guys, this is not good.
[23:39] In fact, this would catch the markets
[23:43] entirely offside.
[23:46] I don't think that
[23:49] the stock market
[23:50] thinks that these oil prices are going
[23:52] to last till September, that this war is
[23:54] going to need to be financed until
[23:56] September.
[23:57] I don't think that the markets have
[23:59] truly appreciated
[24:02] all that's actually happening. It's not
[24:04] clear to me people know
[24:06] the game of geopolitical chess that the
[24:10] US I can't believe the US is playing
[24:13] this game.
[24:16] I'm a bit shocked. I'm always hopeful
[24:19] because I have Bitcoin, and I don't
[24:21] I don't need any government to take care
[24:23] of me anymore.
[24:25] But I'm shocked. Um I also included this
[24:29] tweet from Luke because you guys should
[24:31] check out this interview from Secretary
[24:33] Besant, from Scotty B. So, Luke wrote,
[24:37] "A sophisticated man like Besant
[24:39] unsanctioning Russian oil as Russia is
[24:43] openly supporting Iran,
[24:45] reportedly helping Iran target US
[24:47] assets, still fighting Ukraine,
[24:50] strongly suggests the Trump admin knows
[24:52] these oil disruptions are going to be
[24:54] longer than expected." So, what Luke is
[24:57] saying here, I should have put the video
[24:59] in here. I'm sorry. But again, you guys
[25:01] can go on the internet, you can click
[25:02] the source to go to this tweet directly,
[25:05] and you can watch the video yourself.
[25:07] Besant and the what the US Treasury
[25:09] actually did is they unsanctioned
[25:12] Russian oil,
[25:13] which is very bizarre because Russia is
[25:16] openly supporting Iran both in this war
[25:20] and strategically.
[25:21] Okay? So, it's very interesting that we
[25:24] would unsanction Russia. It's not as if
[25:26] they had changed their behavior, they
[25:28] had stopped fighting Ukraine, that they
[25:30] had started to aid or struck a deal with
[25:32] us.
[25:34] Again, this is a very clear signal that
[25:37] all signs point to this lasting a lot
[25:40] longer than people would like to admit.
[25:43] All signs are pointing towards this is a
[25:46] lot more serious than people would like
[25:49] to admit. And the markets have not
[25:52] priced that in.
[25:55] This is I still am a firm believer of
[25:57] turn on your DCAs, but I'll get to it in
[26:00] a second. Be patient. You know, we are
[26:02] working our way towards the big print.
[26:04] This is a bigger deal than people are
[26:06] leading you on to believe. This is going
[26:08] to last longer than people are leading
[26:09] you on to believe. The Treasury
[26:11] Department of the United States would
[26:13] not unsanction someone who is acting as
[26:16] a direct enemy in the middle of war
[26:19] unless they absolutely had to. They have
[26:22] to get relief on the price of oil
[26:25] because this is not going to be a day,
[26:27] this is not going to be a week unless
[26:30] Trump changes his tone, obviously. Um
[26:33] so, check this.
[26:34] The oil price hit whatever insane levels
[26:38] last night. I don't know off the top of
[26:40] my head. 1 120, 130, some 140, something
[26:43] absolutely insane overnight, by the way.
[26:46] Like it closed Friday below 100, and
[26:49] then on Sunday, it had gapped up, and it
[26:52] it was going to open I mean, I think it
[26:53] did open Monday at whatever, 100
[26:56] something.
[26:57] So, we got a headline
[26:59] that the G7 if on the far left here, we
[27:01] got a headline, G7 discussing joint SPR
[27:05] release. US officials believe a joint
[27:07] release in the range of 300 million to
[27:09] 400 million barrels or 25%
[27:13] of the 1.2 billion a billion barrels in
[27:16] the reserve would be appropriate. Okay?
[27:19] That started to bring the oil price
[27:20] down.
[27:22] Then, all of a sudden, breaking, G7
[27:24] nations decide against releasing the
[27:27] SPR.
[27:29] Japan, though, says IEA recommends the
[27:32] G7, please release the SPR.
[27:35] And then we get a headline following
[27:36] that that says Iran warns of $200
[27:39] per barrel of oil if strikes on its
[27:42] infrastructure do not stop.
[27:45] Now you're starting to see the chess.
[27:48] Again, if I go back to this slide here,
[27:51] our SPR is in bad shape.
[27:54] It was depleted by Biden. It was never
[27:56] refueled. And this kind of goes back,
[27:59] you know, screw the whole like SPR this,
[28:01] SPR that. It's it's less about that for
[28:05] me, guys. It's more like these are all
[28:07] this is all just a bunch of fiat games.
[28:11] You know? Like you should as a country,
[28:14] you should be productive. You should not
[28:16] just export printed money. You should
[28:18] not build a cascading Ponzi scheme of
[28:20] fiat dominoes all over the world that
[28:23] you need to rely on. You shouldn't run
[28:25] on perpetual debt. You can't expect to
[28:27] borrow money forever.
[28:28] It's all just this is decades and
[28:31] decades and decades and decades of
[28:32] policy decisions that are coming home to
[28:35] roost. Okay? So, we've got our SPR
[28:40] that's in trouble. We kind of make a
[28:42] bluff, the G7 does, to release some of
[28:45] those reserves, only to then once the
[28:47] oil price starts to correct back down,
[28:50] then say, "Just kidding." And then Iran
[28:52] responds and say, "Oh, you're just
[28:54] kidding? Well, get ready for a $200 per
[28:56] barrel oil price if you're just
[28:58] kidding."
[29:00] And so,
[29:01] now let's take a look This Let's get
[29:03] into more of the chess here. So, that is
[29:06] my little weekend recap of where we are.
[29:08] Oil gapped up in a major way, and we're
[29:10] going to see how Iran is going to fight
[29:12] back. Iran, China, Russia, I don't think
[29:15] they want war. I don't think they want
[29:17] nuclear. Well, when I say war, Russia is
[29:20] clearly a war hawk. I mean, war with us.
[29:24] I don't think anyone wants to threaten
[29:26] nuclear.
[29:27] I I like I've said before, I think China
[29:30] like it's Chinese culture almost
[29:32] to say, "Oh, okay. You guys are fighting
[29:35] with missiles? Well, we're just going to
[29:37] stop shipping you the rare earths."
[29:40] And that's it. Remember how fast Trump
[29:42] taco'd then?
[29:43] We can't build any defense
[29:45] materials. We can't build any local
[29:47] infrastructure, we tacoed immediately.
[29:50] And that's my expectation is that Iran
[29:52] is going to say, "Okay, you guys want to
[29:54] fight? Well, $200
[29:57] per barrel of oil,
[29:59] go explain to the American people how
[30:01] you started a war and sparked levels of
[30:02] inflation they can't afford.
[30:05] And then also try and explain your bond
[30:06] market. And that's where we're going to
[30:08] get into the chess here. So, this is
[30:09] what I call the pattern break. Every
[30:12] prior geopolitical shock sees bond
[30:15] yields fall.
[30:16] Okay? We're going to explain bond math
[30:18] one more time on this show. So, bond
[30:20] math, guys, is very simple.
[30:23] If the demand for bonds goes down,
[30:26] the yield goes up. They're inversely
[30:28] correlated. If the yield is falling,
[30:31] that means the demand for bonds is
[30:34] rising. So, they're inversely
[30:36] correlated. Why? Well, it's pretty
[30:38] simple.
[30:39] If I'm selling you a 10-year US Treasury
[30:42] bond, okay? And I'm saying I will pay
[30:45] you one basis point of interest to lend
[30:49] to the United States over 10 years.
[30:52] If there's not enough demand for that
[30:54] Treasury bond, then the yield goes up.
[30:57] Well, what about 1%? What about 2%? 3%?
[31:01] 4%? And it's effectively the market's
[31:04] way of saying, "I'm not getting paid
[31:06] enough to lend to the United States of
[31:09] America.
[31:10] You need to pay me a higher yield to
[31:13] solicit the demand required to sell this
[31:16] bond."
[31:17] Okay? Does that make sense? And so,
[31:19] what's traditionally happened during
[31:21] geopolitical shocks, uh, shocks, excuse
[31:23] me, is bonds have acted as a safe haven.
[31:27] Because everyone's risk on, betting on
[31:30] the newest technology, betting on the
[31:32] who's the new Mark Zuckerberg? Who's the
[31:34] new Google? Who's the new Amazon? Risk
[31:36] on, bet it all, bet the house.
[31:39] But if risk comes off,
[31:41] and credit tightens, and liquidity
[31:44] tightens, then the safe haven was to run
[31:47] into US bonds. Because what's safer than
[31:50] getting your paycheck from the Federal
[31:52] Reserve effectively? They can't default.
[31:55] When in doubt, they can print the money.
[31:58] They're good for it. It's the United
[32:00] States, strongest country in the world,
[32:02] strongest economy in the world. We're
[32:04] good. And that's been the safe haven
[32:07] place to run.
[32:09] Look at the asset on the left.
[32:12] That red line is the Iran 2026.
[32:18] It's the only real time the historical
[32:21] average is the shaded in blue.
[32:24] So, like this is abnormal what's
[32:27] happening, guys. This is not good.
[32:31] Yields are rising, which means demand
[32:33] for US bonds is falling, not rising.
[32:38] As the US is engaging in war,
[32:41] risks of inflation,
[32:44] AI deflationary tendencies, there's
[32:46] recessionary risks everywhere.
[32:50] No one is running into the US debt
[32:53] markets for safety.
[32:55] That is really bad. That is really
[32:57] scary. What does it ultimately mean?
[32:59] What it ultimately means is the US is
[33:02] too indebted. People don't want to store
[33:05] their value there anymore
[33:08] in the US bond market.
[33:12] This is why gold has remonetized and
[33:14] reemerged. This is why we're building
[33:17] Bitcoin.
[33:18] The for these moments. You're starting
[33:20] to see the very early cracks of what
[33:22] we've been talking about on the show all
[33:24] the time.
[33:26] If you were to tell someone 10 years ago
[33:29] that there would be war in the Middle
[33:30] East,
[33:31] and bond yields would rise, they would
[33:34] say [ __ ]
[33:36] But it makes all the sense in the world
[33:38] now.
[33:40] On the right, I have from Arthur Hayes
[33:42] the move index. And we've talked about
[33:44] this before, but it's been a while. The
[33:46] move index measures bond volatility.
[33:49] The bond market the the United States
[33:51] bond market can't sustain volatility
[33:54] because in order to get people to buy
[33:57] it, they've allowed and enabled an
[33:59] immense amount of leverage.
[34:02] Okay? We've talked about how the largest
[34:04] buyers of US bonds recently has been US
[34:08] Treasury has been,
[34:09] uh, Cayman Island hedge funds. So, they
[34:11] they're these hedge funds that are
[34:12] running a basis trade, an arbitrage
[34:14] trade, and they're leveraging themselves
[34:17] up times a thousand, times a million.
[34:20] They're basically making a penny every
[34:22] trade, but it's a really good business
[34:24] if you could leverage a penny times a
[34:27] billion.
[34:28] Cuz then you're making a ton of money a
[34:29] day, right? And so, you know what
[34:33] leverage can't sustain is volatility.
[34:36] When volatility hikes up and you're
[34:37] levered, well, you have to post more
[34:39] collateral. And that's where you get a
[34:41] lot of this cascading, well, these hedge
[34:44] funds have to start selling equities,
[34:46] selling bonds to post collateral to
[34:48] sustain the leverage that they have on.
[34:52] And so, when we see both bond yields
[34:54] higher and bond volatility higher, that
[34:58] is bad news. This When I saw this,
[35:01] I thought to myself, "Oh, boy."
[35:05] Okay?
[35:06] Trump is engaged in a very serious poker
[35:11] match right now, and it's not clear to
[35:14] me we're going to win.
[35:18] Iran is basically saying we can sustain
[35:22] enough pain
[35:24] until your bond market collapses on
[35:27] itself, and inflation drives the
[35:30] populace to basically riot you out of
[35:34] office. Like, we can we will sustain the
[35:37] pain. And Trump is taking the opposite
[35:40] of that. He's saying,
[35:42] "I can sustain the pain. I'm willing to
[35:45] sit
[35:46] and bet that you guys cannot wait this
[35:49] out."
[35:51] This is an absolute insane geopolitical
[35:54] match that, again, we're not in the
[35:57] situation room. We don't know what's
[35:59] being briefed. We'll never know.
[36:03] I cannot believe this seems very risky.
[36:06] So, this from Luke, uh,
[36:09] his point here is Iran, so,
[36:12] 10-year yields are in blue, okay?
[36:15] Rising.
[36:16] Um,
[36:18] USDJPY,
[36:19] oil, red. USDCNY, oil, green.
[36:24] Here's the point. They're all going up.
[36:27] Okay?
[36:29] He said since Japan lifted yield curve
[36:31] control on 10-year JGBs. And
[36:34] the, uh, title of his newsletter this
[36:38] week was Iran doesn't have to beat the
[36:40] US military, it just has to beat the US
[36:43] Treasury market.
[36:44] And that's the point here, guys. That's
[36:46] the chess that's being played.
[36:48] The US is so indebted, it's almost at
[36:51] $40 trillion of debt.
[36:53] Interest rates are high.
[36:55] 10-year yields are high. It has no cheap
[36:58] way to borrow anymore. It's reached a
[37:00] dead end. It can't afford to pay the
[37:03] interest anymore. Trump's always saying,
[37:06] "Why is the United States paying the
[37:08] highest interest in the world?
[37:10] We should be paying the lowest. We can't
[37:12] afford it. It would if if sleepy, uh,
[37:14] oh, no, it's not sleepy Joe Biden. If,
[37:16] uh, Jerome Powell, what's Jerome
[37:17] Powell's nickname? Uh,
[37:19] for Trump, whatever. If idiot Jerome
[37:21] Powell were to lower the interest rates,
[37:24] it would save the US hundreds of
[37:26] billions of dollars. He's just talking
[37:27] about their interest payments on the
[37:29] debt.
[37:32] The US can't afford to borrow anymore.
[37:34] And so, Iran is engaging in not nuclear.
[37:39] They're engaging in financial warfare.
[37:42] They're saying, "We're going to close
[37:44] the Strait of Hormuz.
[37:45] We're going to jack up your energy
[37:46] prices.
[37:48] We're going to cause inflation on the
[37:49] populace.
[37:51] And we're going to collapse your bond
[37:52] market."
[37:54] Why And again, just just to be clear
[37:56] cuz, you know, sometimes people come to,
[37:58] uh,
[37:58] my my show and, um, are looking for
[38:01] really basic 101 information on how
[38:04] markets work. Why would inflation crash
[38:07] the bond market? The reason for this,
[38:09] guys, is that the higher inflation, the
[38:12] higher I need to be compensated to lend
[38:14] you money.
[38:15] If inflation is 10% and the bond yield
[38:18] is 5%, I'm getting ripped off because my
[38:21] eggs, my housing, my gas prices are
[38:23] getting 10% more expensive, but you're
[38:25] only paying me 5%. So, you're ripping me
[38:28] off. At a baseline, I should be
[38:30] compensated for inflation. And in
[38:33] theory, I should actually be compensated
[38:35] more than that, too, because whatever
[38:38] the US economy is growing by, like, it's
[38:41] growing because I'm lending you the
[38:42] money. Like, I'm fueling the growth. So,
[38:45] you know, bond markets in theory are
[38:47] some combination of, whatever, inflation
[38:50] and/or growth, right? GDP.
[38:54] So, by oil going up,
[38:57] which causes
[38:59] inflation, serious inflation via, you
[39:01] know, right at the source, energy
[39:02] prices,
[39:04] which will threaten the bond market. And
[39:07] historically, the US has been able to
[39:09] avoid this because they're not so
[39:11] indebted. They're not so fiscally broke.
[39:13] They haven't just been printing and
[39:14] printing and printing and indebted and
[39:15] indebted and indebted and needing
[39:17] lenders, lenders, lenders. But that's
[39:19] where we are today. Like, when I say we
[39:22] are approaching a sovereign debt crisis,
[39:24] this is a sovereign debt crisis. This is
[39:26] like
[39:26] the United States can't afford this any
[39:30] longer.
[39:31] And what you're seeing is oil prices
[39:34] going up is causing the bond market
[39:36] yields to go up, not down, cuz it's not
[39:38] a safe haven. Investors are saying,
[39:40] "Shit, if if Iran's going to keep
[39:42] jacking jacking oil prices up, yields
[39:45] got to can't be 4%, they got to be five,
[39:47] they got to be six, they got to be
[39:48] seven.
[39:50] But the problem is the US can't pay
[39:51] interest on that. They literally can't
[39:53] afford it. So, what do?
[39:56] What do?
[39:57] That's the chess that's being played. I
[39:59] I don't see the win-win-win outcome
[40:02] here. I really don't. I I
[40:05] I don't know
[40:08] how this ends without the US being
[40:11] embarrassed.
[40:13] To be honest.
[40:16] And I don't want to I mean, everyone,
[40:18] you know, I'm American and I love this
[40:19] country and I, you know, if I didn't
[40:22] like it enough, I would have left. I'm
[40:23] not going anywhere.
[40:27] But you guys listening to the show, you
[40:29] know, you need to understand the chess
[40:31] that's being played right now. It's
[40:34] it's serious, okay? So, more on the
[40:37] fiscal math. So, we're not quite at 40
[40:39] trillion, we're at 38.8 trillion dollars
[40:41] of of federal debt. Our debt to GDP is
[40:44] well over 100% sitting at a mere 122%
[40:48] and our deficit to GDP is 6%. That's
[40:51] insane, guys.
[40:55] Meanwhile, over the weekend, Trump said
[40:56] he may need to lift the military budget
[40:59] from $1 trillion a year to 1.5 trillion.
[41:01] So, the spending can't stop and this is
[41:05] why I've said
[41:07] the only way I see out of this is some
[41:11] form of yield curve control.
[41:14] Where you yield curve control, for those
[41:15] that don't know, is if the United States
[41:18] can't find buyers of its bonds. Again,
[41:20] buyers of its bonds are just lenders.
[41:23] When I buy a bond, I'm lending money to
[41:25] the US government and the yield I'm
[41:27] getting is the interest they're paying.
[41:30] If there's no more buyers of US bonds,
[41:34] then what happens is the Federal Reserve
[41:37] just prints money and lends it to the US
[41:39] and buys the bonds. And that's called
[41:41] yield curve control because you are
[41:43] controlling the yield. You are capping
[41:45] the yield.
[41:46] You are saying the yield cannot go
[41:49] to five or to six or to seven because
[41:51] the US can't afford it. So, if there
[41:53] isn't enough demand, the Federal Reserve
[41:55] will print the difference and make the
[41:57] demand. That is the end game. That's
[42:00] just literally you're printing money to
[42:02] borrow money in a perpetual loop. That's
[42:05] the sovereign debt crisis. That's it.
[42:07] That's GG's.
[42:09] That's good game. Tip your king, resign.
[42:12] And that's where you get a more serious
[42:16] version of defaulting via inflation.
[42:19] Because the amount of dollars that are
[42:21] going to need to be printed to sustain
[42:23] these level of deficits, this level of
[42:25] military budget is immense. You are
[42:27] going to get direct inflationary forces
[42:30] to the face. And that's where you see
[42:32] something like Bitcoin and gold, these
[42:35] things are going to screech. Like people
[42:37] talk about god candles, Bitcoin going up
[42:39] $100,000 in a day. It would be on days
[42:42] like that. Like announcing yield curve
[42:44] control programs.
[42:47] And that's the only way I see this that
[42:50] like that's why you stay humble, you
[42:51] stack sats, you turn on your DCAs right
[42:53] now. It could get a lot uglier in the
[42:56] near term.
[42:57] If oil does go to 200, if Trump really
[43:00] tries to push this and it's I mean, risk
[43:03] can sell off violently.
[43:06] Violently.
[43:08] But over like the medium to long term,
[43:10] there's no way out. They have to print
[43:13] the money.
[43:14] And like
[43:15] I mean, this is only expediting the
[43:17] reality. So, I found this tweet uh from
[43:20] Peruvi Peruvian Bull. I've listened to
[43:22] him on Marty's show a few times. Really
[43:24] good uh really good uh insights. I like
[43:26] his stuff.
[43:27] Um
[43:28] So, he kind of described this Japanese
[43:30] doom loop. So, he says, "Japan can't
[43:32] absorb this. Every dollar higher in
[43:34] crude oil is a direct tax on their
[43:36] entire economy. Energy costs spike,
[43:39] import bills explode, the trade deficit
[43:42] widens and the yen weakens further,
[43:44] which makes the energy imports even more
[43:46] expensive." So, you guys see how this is
[43:48] kind of like a loop.
[43:50] It's a doom loop. Weak yen makes oil
[43:52] more expensive in yen terms, which
[43:53] worsens the trade deficit, which makes
[43:55] the yen weak for weaken further, which
[43:57] makes the oil more expensive, which
[43:59] worsens the deficit, which weakens the
[44:00] yen, goes on, goes on, goes on, goes on.
[44:03] If oil stays above $90 and the strait
[44:06] stays shut, the Bank of Japan has to
[44:08] choose between defending the yen, which
[44:10] is hiking rates, blowing up the JGB
[44:12] market and the carry trade, or letting
[44:14] it crash.
[44:16] And so again, guys,
[44:18] it's all one giant Ponzi scheme of
[44:20] dominoes.
[44:21] If Japan can't sustain this, by de
[44:24] facto, the US can't sustain this cuz
[44:25] guess what? When Japan starts to face
[44:27] the heat, what do they sell? They sell
[44:29] US stocks, they sell US Treasuries. They
[44:32] sell US Treasuries, what goes up? When
[44:34] bond demand falls, yields go up. Yield
[44:37] goes up, what goes up? US interest
[44:38] payments. It's all one connected tissue
[44:41] of Ponzi.
[44:43] So, when people do not appreciate, when
[44:45] Trump says, "I can sustain this pain."
[44:47] It doesn't matter what you can do.
[44:50] It's what can the fiat system sustain?
[44:52] This immoral, unethical, giant Ponzi
[44:56] scheme that's been created over the last
[44:58] decades.
[45:00] So, what's the collateral damage?
[45:03] Foreign holders need dollars, so they're
[45:05] selling everything to get the dollars.
[45:09] Look at this last night. South Korea's
[45:10] KOSPI falls more than 6%. Japan's Nikkei
[45:14] falls over 5 and 1/2%.
[45:18] This is not a drill, guys. What I'm
[45:19] saying is not theory, it's facts.
[45:23] It's facts.
[45:25] No bueno.
[45:27] Not good.
[45:31] And weirdly, everyone
[45:34] in markets is starting to draw echoes of
[45:36] 2008. So, first and foremost, BlackRock
[45:40] limited withdrawals from one of its
[45:42] flagship private credit funds. That's
[45:44] bad. More stress in the private credit
[45:47] market and it's not from names you've
[45:48] never heard of, it's from BlackRock.
[45:51] That is not good.
[45:53] On top of that, Joe from Bloomberg and
[45:56] Kelly from CNBC both wrote independent
[46:00] newsletters that this macro environment
[46:03] is giving them flashbacks to 2008. High
[46:06] oil prices, bad job prints, stressed
[46:10] liquidity, not good.
[46:14] Not good.
[46:19] On top of that, on top of that, on top
[46:21] of that,
[46:22] this is a central banker's worst
[46:24] nightmare because in the midst of all of
[46:27] this, while all of this is going on,
[46:31] the change in non-farm payrolls missed
[46:33] by a long mile.
[46:36] The expectation was 55K and it got
[46:38] negative 92K.
[46:41] And so it's a central banker's worst
[46:42] nightmare, why?
[46:44] Well, on one end, you have inflation
[46:46] coming because oil prices surging,
[46:49] energy is surging and everyone's eggs,
[46:52] housing, everything is going to get more
[46:53] expensive if this keeps up.
[46:57] On the other hand, you have job
[46:58] destruction and inflationary or
[47:01] deflationary pressures. Payrolls are
[47:03] crashing, people are going to be left
[47:05] unemployed.
[47:06] So, how how do you fight the AI
[47:09] uh deflationary pressure? You print
[47:11] money.
[47:13] How do you fight oil surging in the
[47:16] inflationary pressure pressure? You hike
[47:18] interest rates.
[47:21] Uh-oh.
[47:25] Pick one. It's a lose-lose situation.
[47:28] Again, guys, we've reached the end of
[47:32] the road.
[47:33] And I'm not going to sit here on the
[47:34] show and say, "Oh, it's over. By the
[47:36] time you wake up tomorrow, the world's
[47:38] going to be on fire." That's all I'm
[47:39] saying.
[47:41] I'm saying there's no clean way out. How
[47:44] long it's going to take and how it's
[47:45] going to happen, I don't care to
[47:46] speculate on that.
[47:48] I spend my time doing productive things.
[47:50] Spend my time working on Bitcoin,
[47:52] building my businesses, building family,
[47:55] enjoying time with friends. I'm not
[47:56] going to spend my time guessing on when
[47:58] the system's going to collapse. It'll
[48:00] collapse when it collapses and I'll have
[48:02] all the Bitcoin to protect myself from
[48:03] that.
[48:04] All right.
[48:05] But my point is
[48:07] like the chessboard is it's it's very
[48:11] clear. It's very obvious.
[48:13] There's no there's no path to walk.
[48:16] There's no can to kick.
[48:22] So, the question in this giant chess
[48:24] game that we're playing, as Luke very
[48:26] eloquently points out both in his
[48:28] newsletter and on Twitter, is who breaks
[48:31] first?
[48:32] The game between the US and Iran {slash}
[48:36] Russia {slash} China. So, the West verse
[48:39] the East.
[48:41] The game is who breaks first?
[48:43] So, this tweet from Luke here on the
[48:45] right, US and Israel are claiming that
[48:47] Iran is out of missiles with warheads
[48:49] lighter than one ton.
[48:51] Iran is claiming that Israel is out of
[48:53] interceptor missiles.
[48:56] So, Luke writes, "High stakes poker to
[48:58] find out who has been bluffing about
[49:00] missile capabilities and who hasn't."
[49:04] I'm not going to lie.
[49:05] I'm nervous.
[49:09] Yes, we're the United States. Yes, we're
[49:10] the greatest country in the world. Yes,
[49:12] we're the land of the free. But we have
[49:14] hollowed out our industrial base over
[49:17] the decades. Trump just had all the war
[49:19] defense companies come talk to him and
[49:22] say, "You better produce as fast as you
[49:24] possibly can." And their reaction was
[49:26] the only way we can do that is getting
[49:28] quicker shipment in from China. We don't
[49:31] have rare earths here. We can't produce
[49:33] [ __ ] without reliance on other people.
[49:35] So, I'm a little nervous that we're in a
[49:37] game of poker right now of who's
[49:39] bluffing harder, who actually can
[49:41] produce interceptors and missiles
[49:43] because I don't think the West wants
[49:46] that smoke. I don't think we want that
[49:48] beef.
[49:52] So, this is Luke's most likely order of
[49:55] events on the left. He thinks the US
[49:58] Treasury market will dysfunction first.
[50:00] The US will run out of interceptor
[50:02] missiles first.
[50:03] Israel and the US military military
[50:06] assets are going to get crushed.
[50:09] And China and Iran will actually outlast
[50:12] this.
[50:13] The question is
[50:14] can China hold its ground
[50:18] in regards to oil?
[50:20] Like does it have enough insufficient
[50:22] access to oil and oil inventory?
[50:24] And can Iran continue to produce
[50:27] weaponry
[50:29] and not run out of missiles?
[50:31] And can they do that before or after the
[50:34] US Treasury market dysfunctions and the
[50:37] US runs out of production? That's the
[50:39] game of poker we're in. Now, again, why
[50:42] we are in this, I don't know. I'm not in
[50:46] the situation room. I'm not briefed on
[50:49] why the [ __ ] we decided to do this.
[50:52] I'll get into it in Grind My Gears. I'm
[50:55] going to go off in Grind My Gears on
[50:57] this very topic. So, I'll save it for
[50:59] that. But, it doesn't make any sense to
[51:02] me and I'm not going to lie, it's
[51:05] slightly concerning.
[51:07] I mean, to see Scott Bessent
[51:08] unsanctioned Russian oil is like, wow.
[51:12] That is I mean, [ __ ] must be real bad.
[51:17] So, that brings us to these new monetary
[51:19] regimes. So, I want to talk a little
[51:21] bit. So, Michael Howell, that's another
[51:24] researcher that I've subscribed to,
[51:26] really good stuff.
[51:28] He's got this really interesting insight
[51:30] that the the gold run has been fueled by
[51:33] China. And you guys should go check out
[51:36] his stuff to read more into it, but the
[51:38] way I would summarize it is China is
[51:40] printing a ton of money right now.
[51:42] They're devaluing their currency a lot,
[51:44] the yuan.
[51:46] And it seems to be
[51:48] devaluing directly against gold.
[51:52] And we know that the United States
[51:53] second largest export in 2025 was
[51:56] non-monetary gold.
[51:58] Look at this. In the black is PBOC
[52:01] liquidity and the orange is gold's
[52:03] price.
[52:04] The PBOC has injected over a trillion
[52:06] dollars in the last 12 months.
[52:14] And the idea is that and we've heard
[52:18] people their suspicions that China is
[52:20] basically building gold-backed currency.
[52:26] And we know that the US is working on,
[52:28] you know, stable coins.
[52:33] >> [snorts]
[52:33] >> This is just me speculating. I expect
[52:36] Bitcoin to become more of a geopolitical
[52:38] tool soon.
[52:41] I really do.
[52:42] There was something from the US
[52:44] Treasury.
[52:45] Hold on. Let me try and pull this up for
[52:47] you guys real quick. I should have
[52:48] included it in here.
[52:50] Hold on.
[52:51] Yeah, this.
[52:53] Look at this, guys.
[52:55] So, this is new. The United States
[52:57] Department of the Treasury admits crypto
[52:59] mixers have legitimate privacy uses on
[53:01] public blockchains. Basically advocating
[53:04] for privacy technology for Bitcoin.
[53:07] Why would they do that? Well,
[53:11] when you read a lot of the research from
[53:13] the government on Bitcoin
[53:15] and you hear people like Ray Dalio talk,
[53:17] one of the critiques is that Bitcoin
[53:20] actually isn't private enough for
[53:22] nation-states. Like no one truly knows
[53:25] how China's using gold and how much they
[53:27] have
[53:28] because there's no blockchain.
[53:30] And so, one of the critiques is like
[53:32] people are able to track. Now, for us
[53:35] savvy Bitcoiners, we know how to use
[53:36] Bitcoin privately. We know how to use
[53:38] the night lightning network. The US
[53:39] government hasn't gotten that far yet.
[53:42] But, to see them say, wait, privacy
[53:44] Bitcoin is actually a good thing.
[53:47] I've kind of described this this in the
[53:49] past. My best guess at how the world
[53:53] evolves is that China is going to go
[53:55] gold and go heavy CCP, obviously. And
[54:00] the West is going to fall back on the
[54:03] internet. What is the internet? The
[54:04] internet is
[54:06] AI,
[54:08] social media,
[54:10] and Bitcoin. The internet's money is
[54:13] Bitcoin. The internet's monetary policy
[54:15] is Bitcoin. The internet's intelligence
[54:17] is AI. And the internet's networking
[54:21] is social media.
[54:23] And you'll have these two
[54:26] worlds fight each other. And one is
[54:28] distributed and fair and equitable and
[54:31] moral and the other is more
[54:33] authoritarian and analog.
[54:37] And I think those are the two frontiers
[54:40] that the world will battle for for the
[54:43] decades to come.
[54:46] That's cuz because I I and I've given
[54:48] this speech before actually in
[54:50] Washington, D.C. But, I think Bitcoin is
[54:53] more American than the dollar itself.
[54:56] Everyone's treated equally. There's
[54:57] freedom of speech. There's property
[54:59] rights. Like the internet is more West
[55:02] than the West. It is the house on the
[55:04] hill. It is the promised land. It is
[55:06] where everyone is now migrating to.
[55:09] Everyone knows like the Statue of
[55:10] Liberty, the United States. Everyone was
[55:12] migrating to the United States. Why?
[55:14] They wanted opportunity. They wanted
[55:16] hope. They wanted property rights. They
[55:19] wanted freedom of speech. They wanted
[55:22] that that like that's why everyone's
[55:24] migrating to Bitcoin. To like everyone's
[55:28] migrating to Bitcoin for hope, for
[55:30] property rights, for freedom of speech.
[55:31] It's why they're migrating to AI.
[55:36] So, I think that this is the future
[55:37] frontier to be fought.
[55:39] And these are very clearly the monetary
[55:41] systems being built.
[55:43] And you know, I think us Americans and
[55:46] entrepreneurs and open-source developers
[55:47] and such, we have to continue to hold
[55:50] the line and build the world we want to
[55:52] live in. I do not want to live in a
[55:54] CCP-driven gold-backed yuan. [ __ ] that.
[55:58] And that that will be the that will be
[56:00] the frontier to be fought. The frontier
[56:01] to be fought, to be clear, will be this.
[56:04] Are kids in China
[56:07] going to wish they were part of the free
[56:09] and open web, which they're not allowed
[56:11] to, right? Like China's controlled
[56:12] internet.
[56:13] Are they going to wish they had access
[56:16] to open-source software?
[56:18] Are they going to wish they had access
[56:19] to Bitcoin, to AI models, to all of our
[56:24] social networking and tooling? Or are we
[56:27] are my kids going to wish that they were
[56:28] part of that they got to grow up under
[56:30] the CCP?
[56:32] That's the frontier to fight right
[56:34] there.
[56:35] And so, how do we how do we win that?
[56:37] How how do we further Western ideals?
[56:40] We keep building, man.
[56:42] We keep building Bitcoin. We keep
[56:44] stacking sats. We buy their dips.
[56:47] Everyone on Wall Street right now that's
[56:49] over-levered getting margin called,
[56:50] puking their guts out, we buy their
[56:52] dips. We keep building. We don't get
[56:55] distracted. Like guys, like no [ __ ]
[56:59] Like enough with the like Dogecoin
[57:02] and the [ __ ] Solana. Like these are
[57:04] not these are not serious technologies
[57:07] to solve serious problems. So, we don't
[57:09] waste our time with that nonsense.
[57:12] We don't get distracted and we build the
[57:15] digital frontier that's going to protect
[57:17] the Western ideals and
[57:19] that's this is where I think the world
[57:21] is going.
[57:22] So, I just a few last things on here
[57:24] before we get into Grind My Gears. Um
[57:28] I wanted to just make this slide called
[57:29] not so fast.
[57:31] When I made this slide, Bitcoin was
[57:33] rallying a lot. Like Bitcoin was up like
[57:36] 10% in a day and everyone was like,
[57:37] let's go. Bear market's over. It might
[57:40] be. I don't know. Okay, listen. I don't
[57:42] know. What I've been saying is turn on
[57:44] your DCAs. It's not going to get much
[57:47] lower for much longer than this. You're
[57:49] not going to regret this price in a few
[57:51] years. Turn on your DCAs, but it could.
[57:55] And if you look at the fundamentals,
[57:57] this is BTCUSD and uh the software ETF.
[58:02] Like this is Bitcoin and software.
[58:04] They're still directly correlated. So,
[58:05] Bitcoin popped cuz software popped. If
[58:07] Bitcoin was starting to move against
[58:10] other things in a really strong way, now
[58:13] we'd be talking. And it's shown a little
[58:15] bit of life there, but not enough for
[58:17] me.
[58:17] So, that's why I'm just saying, just be
[58:19] careful, guys. Be really careful because
[58:22] if it comes out that this war is going
[58:23] to go all the way into the winter, that
[58:25] oil is going to hit 200, and that Trump
[58:28] and this administration has engaged in
[58:30] very serious high-stakes poker and it's
[58:32] not really clear how this is going to
[58:34] end, things could sell off in a major
[58:36] way, in a major major way.
[58:39] It might not. I don't know, right? Who
[58:41] am I? I have no idea.
[58:43] But, just be careful, okay? Be careful.
[58:46] Bitcoin popped cuz software popped. And
[58:48] we all know
[58:49] what's going on there. We've been
[58:51] through that. But, with that being said,
[58:53] turn on your DCA. So,
[58:56] again, more more things I look at, more
[58:58] signs.
[58:59] Bitcoin perpetual future funding rates.
[59:01] People are starting to short the bottom.
[59:03] Okay? That's signs of shorting the
[59:07] bottom always tell me we are near a
[59:10] bottom. Doesn't mean we're at the
[59:11] bottom. We're near a bottom. And again,
[59:14] every type of power law, every type
[59:17] every type of long trajectory, you know,
[59:21] price
[59:22] formula for Bitcoin tells me that
[59:26] they're like statistically, it's a good
[59:28] time to buy. Statistically. Like we
[59:31] there are few days
[59:33] according to history
[59:35] that Bitcoin is relatively lower than it
[59:37] is now.
[59:39] And you have to remove the expectation
[59:40] that you're going to buy the pico
[59:42] bottom. You're not. It's probably going
[59:43] to happen while you're sleeping. It's
[59:45] probably going to happen while you're
[59:46] driving. It's probably going to be
[59:47] happen while you're in the shower.
[59:50] Right? Like that's not the point. I'm
[59:53] not I'm not the best trader. That's not
[59:56] That's not who I am. That's not what I'm
[59:58] good at. Nor is that what I want to be
[60:00] good at to be frank. Some people want to
[60:02] be good at that and you know, all the
[60:03] power to them. I don't.
[60:06] I want to build products. I want to
[60:08] build great companies. I want to make a
[60:11] difference in the world through
[60:12] innovating. And so that's what I spend
[60:14] my time on. So I just DCA.
[60:17] I just DCA.
[60:19] Get my paychecks in Bitcoin. Use my line
[60:21] of credit.
[60:23] I'm
[60:24] you know? So turn on the DCA. All right.
[60:29] Grinds my gears time. I know we're uh
[60:32] we're about an hour into the show.
[60:34] Um but I got time today. I got time
[60:36] today.
[60:37] So uh no worries. Let me take a sip of
[60:39] espresso and get myself fired up here
[60:41] cuz I mean these people think we're
[60:43] [ __ ] stupid, man.
[60:50] All right.
[60:53] You know what really grinds my gears?
[60:57] This is from Donald Trump.
[61:00] He tweets over the weekend, "Short-term
[61:04] pain, long-term gain."
[61:06] He says, "Short-term oil prices, which
[61:08] will drop rapidly when the destruction
[61:11] of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a
[61:13] very small price to pay for USA and
[61:17] world safety and peace. Only fools would
[61:20] think differently."
[61:21] I'm going to read and dissect this one
[61:23] more time.
[61:25] Short-term oil prices
[61:28] which will drop rapidly when the
[61:30] destruction of Iran nuclear threat.
[61:33] What is the president of the United
[61:34] States saying in plain English?
[61:37] This is about Iran's nuclear threat
[61:40] and he's saying short-term pain for
[61:43] long-term gain.
[61:45] I mean, wait till I show you. You cannot
[61:48] make this [ __ ] up.
[61:51] Hold on. Let me pull up the video.
[61:55] All right. Now
[61:58] I need you guys to watch this
[62:00] video of a short the news media.
[62:04] Just it'll speak for itself. Take a
[62:06] listen.
[62:09] This is a short-term disruption for the
[62:11] long-term gain. Short-term pain for the
[62:15] long-term gain. Short-term pain be for
[62:17] long-term gain. We're going to have some
[62:18] short-term pain uh with long-term gain.
[62:21] Short-term pay for a long-term gain.
[62:24] Some short-term pain, yes, but we've got
[62:26] some long-term gain. Short-term spike
[62:28] for a long-term gain. Some short-term
[62:31] pain for American consumers. We may have
[62:33] to deal with that in the short-term.
[62:35] Short-term and temporary. Temporary
[62:37] short-term pain. It's going to suck in
[62:39] the short-term. Some short-term pain.
[62:41] Short-term pain. We have to focus on the
[62:43] short-term. Short-term. Short-term
[62:45] short-term short-term and long-term.
[62:47] Short-term. Left. Hopefully this is a
[62:49] short-term pain. Short-term. Is highly
[62:52] outweighed of the long-term benefit.
[62:54] >> Some short-term
[62:55] pain for the long-term gain. Short-term
[62:58] sacrifice for a long-term gain.
[63:03] These people think we're [ __ ] stupid.
[63:08] Short-term pain, long-term gain. It
[63:10] doesn't You just got to be short-term
[63:12] pain. Shut the [ __ ] up. Shut the [ __ ]
[63:16] up.
[63:17] This is the most dystopian, disgusting
[63:20] Guys, wake up. We are living in the most
[63:24] dystopian, disgusting times.
[63:28] Literally, the US government is
[63:31] funneling in hypnotic messaging to
[63:35] hypnotize the people through the media.
[63:38] They get on Wait, why the [ __ ] are we in
[63:42] a war in the Middle East? Why are we
[63:44] playing playing such high-stakes
[63:46] geopolitical poker? Why are we causing
[63:50] potentially immense levels of inflation
[63:53] against an already deflationary threat
[63:55] in AI? What the [ __ ] are we doing? It's
[63:58] a short-term pain for long-term gain.
[64:01] Shut the [ __ ] up.
[64:04] These people think you're stupid.
[64:09] Make no mistake about it. These people
[64:13] think you're dumb.
[64:17] They think you're a dumb, white-collar
[64:20] novice that's going to turn on the news
[64:23] short-term pain, long-term gain and go
[64:25] to your job with your button-up and your
[64:28] tie and your duffel bag and click-clack
[64:30] on a keyboard all day and hate your life
[64:32] and go home and take a bunch of pills
[64:36] and supplement yourself with booze and
[64:38] with marijuana. They think you're dumb.
[64:40] They think you're soulless.
[64:44] Because let me show you guys something.
[64:47] This
[64:49] was a press release from the White House
[64:53] on January 25th, 2025, less than 1 year
[64:57] ago.
[64:58] The press release from the White House
[65:00] reads, "Iran's nuclear facilities have
[65:03] been obliterated and suggestions
[65:06] otherwise are fake news."
[65:09] Does anyone not remember that less than
[65:11] a year ago we dropped bombs on Iran and
[65:14] supposedly obliterated their nuclear
[65:17] facilities? Do you guys remember that?
[65:19] Am I taking [ __ ] crazy pills?
[65:24] But the president of my country then
[65:27] tweets out that
[65:29] this is short-term pain until we destroy
[65:32] their nuclear threat. But I THOUGHT WE
[65:34] JUST DESTROYED it in June of last year.
[65:37] How stupid do these people think I am?
[65:43] THEY'RE NOT EVEN TRYING ANYMORE.
[65:46] THE WHITE HOUSE, the president, the US
[65:50] government literally issued a press
[65:52] release from their own website that said
[65:55] they obliterated the Iran nuclear
[65:57] weaponry and anything stating otherwise
[66:00] was fake.
[66:02] That same government is telling the
[66:04] media short-term pain, long-term gain,
[66:06] short-term pain, long-term gain until we
[66:09] destroy their nuclear weaponry. These
[66:11] people think I'm [ __ ] stupid. They
[66:14] think I'm a lab rat. I'm a white-collar
[66:17] junkie.
[66:20] So you know what really grinds my gears?
[66:22] Everything about this disgusting system.
[66:25] The government's too big. The money's
[66:27] too broken. It's [ __ ] pathetic.
[66:31] I mean, who can watch what I'm
[66:33] presenting right now and defend any of
[66:36] this?
[66:39] The media is a hypnotic, hypnotized,
[66:42] broken record. The president is
[66:44] violating the very thing he promised to
[66:47] the people in June of last year.
[66:51] What the [ __ ] are we talking about? How
[66:53] is this a debate?
[67:00] Meanwhile Trump's talking about like
[67:03] he may start a draft and send Americans
[67:07] into war?
[67:09] Dude.
[67:12] You know what really grinds my gear?
[67:14] All of that This is they these people
[67:17] think we are [ __ ] stupid.
[67:22] They think we're stupid.
[67:26] And that's why I said last week, "What
[67:29] can I do about it?" Am I going to pick
[67:31] up a weapon? Am I going to go protest
[67:33] violently? No, never.
[67:37] I'm going to build open-source software.
[67:39] I'm going to buy Bitcoin. I'm out. I'm
[67:43] out.
[67:45] Two ways to express yourself in this
[67:47] world, voice and exit. My voice doesn't
[67:50] matter anymore. No one's does. Nobody
[67:54] wanted to go to the Middle East and go
[67:55] to war. Nobody wants $200 of per barrel
[67:59] of oil. Nobody wants any of this [ __ ]
[68:03] It didn't matter what we said or what we
[68:05] want. Okay, fine. I'm out.
[68:09] I own no dollars. None of my time and
[68:12] energy goes towards supporting any of
[68:15] this nonsense. Any of this short-term
[68:17] pain, long-term gain. You know, we just
[68:19] need a little bit more short-term pain
[68:20] so we can have the greatest long-term
[68:22] gain. Shut the [ __ ] up. These people
[68:24] think I'm [ __ ] stupid.
[68:27] I couldn't believe I swear to God I
[68:29] said, "Hold on a second."
[68:33] Didn't the White House just issue a
[68:35] press release? It felt like yesterday
[68:39] when we flew over Iran, dropped a few
[68:42] missiles that destroyed all their
[68:44] nuclear capabilities and we came out and
[68:46] we celebrated it as like the most
[68:49] tactical and efficient strike. It took
[68:51] us like less than a day. It was in the
[68:53] middle of the night. They never saw it
[68:55] coming. And Trump said we we destroyed
[68:58] all their nuclear stuff.
[69:00] Fast forward like 9 months and we need
[69:03] short-term pain, which doesn't seem very
[69:05] short-term by the way,
[69:08] to do what we you already said you did.
[69:10] How [ __ ] stupid do you think I am?
[69:13] It's so insulting.
[69:16] Because he It's so insulting because
[69:21] God damn.
[69:23] Because obesity rates are up, metabolic
[69:25] disease is up, cancer rates are up,
[69:28] suicide rates are up, drug abuse is up.
[69:32] Because the population is struggling
[69:34] from these very same policies. These
[69:38] These are policy decisions. Perpetual
[69:40] inflation, perpetual debt, perpetual
[69:43] war.
[69:45] These are policy decisions made by these
[69:48] people.
[69:51] How [ __ ] dumb do you think I am? So,
[69:54] I'm going to spend my time doing
[69:56] podcasts, tweeting, building companies
[69:58] to make sure people understand they
[70:00] should never buy a US bond, ever.
[70:03] They should never hold fiat any more
[70:06] than they absolutely have to.
[70:09] It's disgusting and pathetic. These
[70:12] people are pathetic.
[70:14] Pathetic. And by the way, obviously
[70:17] don't trust the media. Obviously build
[70:19] your own opinions. Now you see very
[70:21] clearly that a lot of this is narrative
[70:23] driven.
[70:27] [ __ ] pathetic.
[70:29] That's what grinds my gears. Ridiculous.
[70:33] All right.
[70:35] Let's cool down a little bit and talk
[70:37] about Strike.
[70:38] Um just a reminder that we launched our
[70:41] line of credit product. So, what is the
[70:43] line of credit? It's It's like a HELOC,
[70:45] but for your Bitcoin. So,
[70:47] in my opinion, it's one of the most
[70:50] exciting innovations in Bitcoin in a
[70:53] while, at least for me. Again, let me
[70:56] remind you guys, I don't like building
[70:59] anything that I don't use myself.
[71:01] I truly believe the best products are
[71:03] built by people that are a customer as
[71:05] well.
[71:07] Um let me tell you guys a story about
[71:09] this, actually. I've been having some
[71:11] issues in my house with my lighting,
[71:12] like my electrical setup, I guess, or
[71:14] something. I don't really understand it.
[71:16] But, the UI on like how the lights work
[71:20] in my house is awful.
[71:23] Like, you guys remember when a light
[71:25] used to just be an on and off switch?
[71:28] And you'd flip it up to turn the light
[71:30] on, and you'd flip it down to turn the
[71:33] light off?
[71:34] It was such a good It was so well
[71:37] designed. It was so easy. It was so
[71:39] intuitive. It didn't need an instruction
[71:41] manual. I didn't need to take a picture
[71:44] and plug it into Chat GPT and explain it
[71:46] to me. It was super [ __ ] simple. I
[71:48] flipped the light up to go on. I flipped
[71:51] the switch down to go off. And if I flip
[71:53] it and it doesn't go on, that means the
[71:54] light's out. It was super [ __ ] easy.
[71:57] Nowadays, you've got these panels of
[71:59] lights, and there's different like
[72:01] There's buttons all over the place. And
[72:04] I give you this context and this example
[72:06] because there's no way whoever built
[72:09] this new light system for my house has
[72:12] this installed in their house.
[72:14] No one would build this product if they
[72:16] had to use it themselves.
[72:18] It's a shitty product. It doesn't make
[72:21] any [ __ ] sense. There's instruction
[72:23] manuals and all this stuff. I just need
[72:25] to turn my lights on when I need to see,
[72:28] and I need to turn my lights off when I
[72:30] go to bed. I don't need it to be any
[72:33] fancier than that. It just needs to
[72:35] work.
[72:37] And so anyways, I think products are
[72:40] best when they're built by people that
[72:42] experience the problems themselves and
[72:43] that use the products they build. I
[72:45] think they're They're bad products when
[72:47] people create products for the sake of
[72:49] having a business. Like someone created
[72:51] like the fancier light company that's
[72:53] selling light packages to my building.
[72:56] Like no one No one practically uses this
[72:58] product. No one No one like thought this
[73:00] was a better product than the light
[73:01] switch.
[73:02] And so anyways, I build products that I
[73:05] use. And I built this product because I
[73:08] needed this product. I don't want to own
[73:11] fiat. I want to live on Bitcoin.
[73:15] But, how do I do that? The way I do that
[73:18] is by a Bitcoin line of credit. Where I
[73:22] buy Bitcoin with my paychecks. I buy
[73:24] Bitcoin with my savings. I keep a
[73:26] portion of it on Strike. When I go to
[73:28] pay my bills on Strike. When I go to do
[73:31] any like I have an HOA, I have an
[73:32] electricity bill, I have credit card
[73:35] bills. Like I live my life, whatever.
[73:37] Credit cards, housing expenses. It's all
[73:39] hooked up to Strike
[73:41] through my account and routing number.
[73:43] And then when the bill comes in, Strike
[73:46] extends a little line of credit and
[73:48] basically lends me the fiat to cover the
[73:50] bill.
[73:51] And then when my paycheck comes in, if
[73:53] my LTV's in a position where I need to
[73:55] pay the the line of credit down a little
[73:56] bit and keep it healthy, then I allocate
[73:59] some of my paycheck to the line of
[74:00] credit. If not, I just stack sats. It's
[74:02] that simple. And so this is like an
[74:04] effortless and easy way to live on
[74:06] Bitcoin and effectively short fiat,
[74:09] speculatively attack fiat with Bitcoin.
[74:11] Because the Bitcoin lending products
[74:13] today are fine. Like the 12-month loan
[74:16] that we offer is a great product, but
[74:19] you need to be taking out a a larger
[74:20] lump sum of cash over a year. It's not a
[74:23] product to necessarily live on Bitcoin
[74:26] effortlessly. You know, use that product
[74:28] to
[74:29] uh finance a wedding, to pay for a large
[74:31] medical expense, to put a down payment
[74:33] on a house. It's a large lump sum of
[74:35] cash all at once. The line of credit is
[74:38] like Strike has direct deposit, we have
[74:40] bill pay, and now we have a consumer
[74:43] credit line against your Bitcoin. So, we
[74:45] complete the full loop. You can get
[74:47] paid, pay your bills, and uh yeah, get
[74:51] paid and pay your bills without owning
[74:53] fiat at all, with getting these small
[74:54] little
[74:55] uh credit lines against your Bitcoin.
[74:57] So,
[74:59] this product is live in Georgia and in
[75:01] Massachusetts. We're going to enable it
[75:03] like, you know, hopefully across the
[75:05] entire America
[75:07] um soon. We really I mean, I I said this
[75:09] before. Uh
[75:11] this product is really personal to me. I
[75:13] care a lot about it. I want it to be
[75:15] perfect. We wanted to do a little bit of
[75:16] testing. Uh Massachusetts and Georgia
[75:18] for us were for other reasons that
[75:21] aren't worth just uh explaining. There
[75:23] We have customers that were already
[75:25] there, that already knew we were
[75:26] building this, and asked if they could
[75:28] use it first. And so we enabled it there
[75:30] first just for testing purposes. So,
[75:31] we're going to test it a little bit. So
[75:33] far, it's working really, really well. I
[75:35] love the product myself. Uh and then
[75:38] yeah, I I would say as soon as the
[75:40] testing goes well, we'll just unleash it
[75:41] everywhere. Um so, if you guys have
[75:44] feedback, if you have questions, please
[75:46] ask. I'll answer here. We'll answer in
[75:48] support. Um and if you want to access,
[75:50] let us know as well. Um we're just
[75:52] trying to collect as much information as
[75:54] we possibly can um so that uh we can
[75:56] perfect the product and get it out to
[75:58] you guys. Then the other thing about
[76:00] Strike is we got our bit license. So,
[76:03] it's official. We got our bit license.
[76:05] We issued our press release. That's now
[76:06] official official official news,
[76:08] cosigned by the NYDFS. Strike is live in
[76:11] New York.
[76:13] Uh the party. So, this is the merch I'll
[76:16] be handing out in New York. This I love
[76:19] New York shirt, Strike style. We'll be
[76:21] handing out free merch, drinks on us at
[76:23] PubKey um March 17th. So, it's a week
[76:27] from tomorrow. A week from tomorrow,
[76:30] I'll be there. A lot of the Strike team
[76:32] will be there. I think I'm doing a
[76:34] fireside chat with someone. So, there'll
[76:35] be a little bit I I think it would be I
[76:38] told Dylan I think it'd be cool if we
[76:40] did like some version of JMS in person,
[76:43] like at least the Q&A. Like if you guys
[76:45] have questions about our products or
[76:46] about 21 or You ask me whatever you
[76:48] want. And you know, we'll be there. It's
[76:50] actually coincidentally St. Patrick's
[76:52] Day. So, I'll have a Guinness and
[76:54] we'll do some live Q&A and we'll hang
[76:56] out. I think the only fear is that
[76:59] supposedly
[77:01] PubKey can only fit like 100 people.
[77:04] And uh or something like that. Maybe a
[77:06] little more.
[77:07] And I'm worried that we're going to
[77:10] attract way more than 100 people because
[77:13] you don't need to like buy a ticket or
[77:14] anything. I just want you guys to show
[77:16] up. And so I actually pinged Dylan and I
[77:18] said, "Dude, I wonder if PubKey can
[77:22] allow us to drink some beers out in the
[77:24] front of the bar, like spill out almost
[77:26] like patio style?" Because what would be
[77:29] really badass to me, cuz people were
[77:31] floating ideas like, "Well, you know,
[77:33] should we require people to buy tickets?
[77:34] Should we make it like a little bit
[77:35] exclusive, like you need an invite?" And
[77:38] I was like, "No, [ __ ] that. That's so
[77:40] not me and so not Strike and so not
[77:43] Bitcoin. Like it should just be like
[77:45] show up. Show up, drinks on me for 1
[77:47] day. I've been trying to get this
[77:49] license for years. I've been working on
[77:51] Bitcoin for years. It's because you guys
[77:53] that my business is profitable and we
[77:55] can afford an event like this, and it's
[77:57] your support that allows me to wake up
[78:00] and you know, I have my dream job, and I
[78:02] feel very fortunate. And I And I also
[78:04] feel a very serious responsibility to
[78:06] you guys to, you know, do the right
[78:08] thing and um build the right products
[78:10] and have the right focus. So, it just be
[78:12] a fun moment, and uh everyone should
[78:14] show up. If we If it gets too crowded,
[78:17] and then it is what it is. [ __ ] it. Like
[78:20] that I think that'd be cool. And
[78:21] hopefully, I don't know. Maybe there's a
[78:23] bar next door we can rent, or maybe we
[78:25] can drink outside. But whatever. Um you
[78:28] guys should all come. Seriously, just
[78:30] show up. Um as I'm talking now, no
[78:33] ticket required, nothing, drinks on me.
[78:35] And I only have so much merch. I can't
[78:38] print merch like the Fed can print
[78:39] dollars. So, obviously it'll be first
[78:41] come, first served for the merch, if you
[78:43] want. I think we've got a shirt and some
[78:46] coasters or something.
[78:48] I don't know. Whatever.
[78:50] Um but just show up. Show up. Come give
[78:52] me a hug. Uh
[78:54] we'll we'll shoot the [ __ ] We'll have
[78:55] some live Q&A.
[78:57] Uh and uh and we'll all hang out. We'll
[79:00] all hang out and uh turn on our DCAs
[79:03] and um have a good time. So, I'm looking
[79:05] forward to seeing you guys, and thanks
[79:07] for all the support. Let's let's make it
[79:10] an all-time high PubKey event. Let's
[79:13] make it like the most highly attended
[79:15] PubKey has ever been. That'd be awesome.
[79:18] I think that'd be badass. Some of my
[79:20] team was like, "Dude, I'm really nervous
[79:22] about that." I was like, "No, opposite
[79:24] reaction. That'd be the coolest [ __ ]
[79:27] ever. That'd be awesome." So, that's my
[79:29] goal. Spread Spread the word. I think um
[79:32] all of our like promotional assets get
[79:34] in from the team tomorrow. So, I'll
[79:36] start tweeting all the stuff out and
[79:37] promoting it through uh my socials
[79:39] tomorrow. Uh and I fly in next week. So,
[79:43] I'll be uh I'll be in New York next
[79:45] week, Tuesday, March 17th.
[79:48] Um
[79:50] and then on 21, uh some of you guys
[79:52] wrote in the comments that you didn't
[79:54] know what non-public information was.
[79:57] So, I I'm just going to repeat it again.
[79:59] Some, you know, for 21, some people want
[80:02] to just be upset. And I get that.
[80:04] Totally understand that. I'm being
[80:06] genuine. I'm not being facetious. I
[80:07] totally understand that. And I'm the
[80:09] guy. Being you know, being the CEO is
[80:11] like buck stops here. Like you want to
[80:13] be upset at someone, you're allowed to
[80:14] be upset at me. And I own that
[80:16] wholeheartedly. It's been It's been a
[80:17] tough market for a lot of us Bitcoin
[80:19] companies. It's been tough. Tough
[80:21] sledding, no doubt. If I could rewind
[80:23] time, would I do some stuff differently?
[80:24] 100% no doubt. Um you know, maybe one
[80:27] day I walk you guys through a little
[80:29] behind the scenes of everything that
[80:31] went on and and all the stuff. And um
[80:34] maybe there'll be time for that where I
[80:35] feel that's appropriate. But all that to
[80:37] say, some people want to be upset, be
[80:39] upset. I I own that. Some people though
[80:42] are genuinely interested on like, "Hey
[80:44] dude, you're really transparent
[80:46] approachable guy. Why are you not being
[80:48] that transparent with 21?"
[80:50] And the answer I gave last week was uh
[80:54] and I want to expand on a little bit
[80:55] here. There's something called NPI,
[80:57] non-public information.
[80:59] As a public company officer, if I know
[81:02] something that the public doesn't that
[81:06] could be impactful to the future of the
[81:08] business, I'm not actually allowed to
[81:12] talk about it. I'm also not even allowed
[81:15] to implement a stock buyback. People
[81:17] say, "Man, 21's trading at a discount to
[81:19] its NAV. If you believed it was really
[81:21] discounted, you'd be buying stock
[81:23] personally or the company would be
[81:25] buying its own stock." Trust me, if I
[81:27] was allowed to, I would. Um but uh when
[81:31] there is non-public information, then
[81:34] we're very restricted in what we can do.
[81:36] And so, what I've been saying and what
[81:38] I'll continue to say is that 21 is
[81:42] engaging in some interesting
[81:43] opportunities that we think would be
[81:46] really really great. And our goal has
[81:49] always been to be the Bitcoin company
[81:51] and combine a large Bitcoin treasury
[81:53] with a large Bitcoin operating business.
[81:55] Like we want to build products. We want
[81:58] to build tools. We want to advance
[82:00] Bitcoin adoption. We want high margins
[82:02] and high cash flow. And like that it it
[82:05] doesn't mean that other Bitcoin treasury
[82:07] strategies are bad. It's just we we want
[82:11] Like I said, I like building products I
[82:13] use. I like building tools that advance
[82:15] my mission, the things I believe in, the
[82:17] world I want to live in. And that's who
[82:19] we want to be as a company. And so,
[82:20] we're exploring opportunities uh that
[82:23] would put us in that position and
[82:25] advance us towards that goal.
[82:27] And because we are in the middle of
[82:29] exploring those opportunities, I'm not
[82:32] allowed to buy stock. I'm not allowed to
[82:35] tell you guys any more than I am right
[82:37] now. And those are just the law.
[82:40] And if I were to violate the law,
[82:42] obviously, I'd get in trouble. But more
[82:44] importantly, I wouldn't progress us
[82:47] towards where we all want to go if
[82:48] you're interested in 21 and and its
[82:50] success. So, the best thing to do for
[82:52] the company is for us to continue to do
[82:54] the work. And at the end of the day,
[82:57] everything always comes down to proof of
[82:58] work, right? Like we're either going to
[83:00] build a great company or we're not. And
[83:04] we think for the long term, Tether and I
[83:06] have an extremely low time preference.
[83:08] Uh we're very excited about this
[83:09] company. Obviously, it's been an
[83:11] interesting start. But you know, it's
[83:13] okay. And the only thing we can do is
[83:15] learn from some stuff that we would have
[83:17] done differently and be better. And
[83:19] that's what we're doing.
[83:20] And that's all I can say. So, for those
[83:23] that want to be mad at me,
[83:25] that's not going to change. The The This
[83:27] information's not going to change you
[83:28] how you feel. And you have a right to
[83:30] feel however you want to feel. You It's
[83:32] your emotions. They aren't mine. And you
[83:34] know, I'm the CEO. You can yell at me.
[83:35] That's okay.
[83:37] If you are genuinely curious like, "Wow,
[83:39] Jack's feels like a little bit more
[83:41] timid or a little bit more restricted."
[83:42] That's why. It's not a strategic thing
[83:45] by me. It's not a tactical thing. I'm
[83:47] not hiding from anything. It's just the
[83:50] rules. And when I'm allowed to talk,
[83:53] like Strike's a private company that I
[83:55] control outright. Like no one can tell
[83:57] me what to do. It's my company. Uh 21 is
[84:00] a public company. And when you're a
[84:01] public company, your company is
[84:03] literally for sale every single day
[84:05] during the market hours. So, you know,
[84:08] it's not just yours. It's the public's.
[84:10] Like you share it. And so, there are all
[84:11] sorts of rules you have to abide by. And
[84:13] so, when I'm allowed to tell you guys
[84:16] more about like all that goes into
[84:17] launching a public company, why certain
[84:19] things happened, why I made certain
[84:21] decisions, I'd love to do that. It right
[84:23] now it's not appropriate. And so, uh
[84:25] we're just going to do the proof of
[84:26] work. And um
[84:28] you know, one day I hope to share all
[84:29] that with you guys cuz I think why not?
[84:31] I believe in the transparency and uh and
[84:34] the information sharing. I think it's
[84:35] healthy.
[84:36] Um but yeah, for now, we're just going
[84:39] to build. And uh
[84:42] work towards this common goal I've
[84:43] outlined fairly clearly, which is a
[84:45] Bitcoin treasury company and a Bitcoin
[84:47] operating company all in one roof.
[84:52] Uh
[84:57] Oh, Dylan just said we're definitely
[84:59] going to ticket the event in New York or
[85:01] else it will be mayhem.
[85:03] Well,
[85:05] you guys know how I feel. I would rather
[85:07] do no ticket. Just like come one, come
[85:09] all. Let's burn the place down.
[85:12] Although like I love the PubKey guys. I
[85:14] love Thomas. I don't actually want to
[85:16] burn this place down. Please don't
[85:18] actually do that. It was a metaphor. But
[85:20] I let's just raise the roof of the
[85:22] joint. Who knows? Maybe they have to
[85:24] implement a ticketing process to protect
[85:27] the capacity. I don't know. I'm not
[85:29] trying to get anyone in trouble. I just
[85:31] think it would be awesome if we had like
[85:33] a block party in New York.
[85:36] I just don't know if we're allowed to. I
[85:38] don't know how the rules work. But if
[85:40] Bitcoiners just showed up in a major
[85:42] way, like if like 500 Bitcoiners showed
[85:44] up and we just took over a block in New
[85:45] York City and all had Guinnesses for St.
[85:47] Patrick's Day and just like chatted
[85:49] about Bitcoin, that'd be like That would
[85:51] be the dream for me.
[85:53] We'll see if we can make it happen. I'll
[85:55] keep you guys posted. I don't know.
[85:57] I don't know. Fight Man of Man of the
[85:59] people, they say.
[86:01] That's what they say, man of the people.
[86:04] Um all right. Let's do some Q&A.
[86:07] I got time today. Longer episode. Um but
[86:11] you guys like the long episodes, so
[86:12] we'll keep them long.
[86:14] Let me pull up the Q&A doc. Uh as a
[86:16] reminder, uh Dylan hangs out in the chat
[86:19] with you guys. And as you ask questions,
[86:22] he's writing them down. And we also even
[86:24] have integrated our head of product and
[86:26] the president of Strike. She is in the
[86:29] doc. Whenever you guys are asking
[86:30] questions about the product, I get her
[86:33] help answering it. So, I see some of her
[86:34] notes in here, too. So,
[86:37] you can ask me macro questions. You can
[86:39] ask me investing questions. You can ask
[86:41] me Strike questions. And we get them all
[86:43] answered. Okay, we'll start with macro.
[86:47] Jack, in your opinion, are the problems
[86:49] showing up in the private credit sector
[86:50] going to be a contagion for the broader
[86:52] economy?
[86:54] Yeah. Well, I think all of this is the
[86:57] same It's all the same story. So, let's
[87:00] say let's say something blew up today.
[87:02] What would we all point to the problems
[87:05] in the private credit sector? Probably.
[87:07] But would we also point to AI? Probably.
[87:09] Would we also probably point to Iran?
[87:11] Probably. So, I think they're all
[87:14] they're all They're They're
[87:17] They're all pointing to the same
[87:18] resolution. Like you they're going to
[87:20] have to print a ton of money.
[87:22] No matter how you slice it. So, yeah, I
[87:25] would say yeah. The private sector
[87:27] private credit sector stuff is not good.
[87:30] It's a symptom of the this larger
[87:33] problem, no doubt.
[87:35] Uh question for both of you. Leveraging
[87:37] AI, when it does analysis for you,
[87:39] making slides, etc., how much do you
[87:41] trust the output and spend time sifting
[87:43] through the data it pulls, etc.? So,
[87:46] I'll show you guys um actually. Oh,
[87:49] also, I should probably make myself
[87:51] bigger here.
[87:53] Hello. Hello.
[87:55] But I will make myself smaller just to
[87:57] show you guys how I use AI. So, I'll
[87:59] I'll give you guys a little live
[88:00] walk-through. So, the way that this show
[88:03] works. So, here's my recommendation of
[88:06] how to use AI. Um
[88:10] so, I build tools that make myself more
[88:14] efficient. I don't outsource
[88:17] my like artistry, I guess, if that makes
[88:20] sense. I've talked before that I think
[88:22] AI makes the artist better
[88:25] and it
[88:27] and it disintermediates the like
[88:29] white-collar worker. So, let me just
[88:31] explain. So, I built this tool called
[88:33] JMS Resources,
[88:34] which I drag and drop the So, I'm taking
[88:38] screenshots on the internet, right? Like
[88:39] I've got all the stuff I presented to
[88:41] you guys today.
[88:42] So, let's see. I'll take a screenshot of
[88:45] this.
[88:47] And I'll upload it to here. Drag it,
[88:50] drop it here.
[88:52] The source is localhost
[88:56] 8000.
[88:57] Uh and then the notes, I'll say testing.
[89:02] And I upload it and it's sitting here.
[89:05] >> [sighs]
[89:06] >> And then I'm able to talk to my AI and
[89:09] say, "Hey, this is how I'm thinking
[89:11] about the outline of the show. These are
[89:12] the chapters I want to cover. This is
[89:13] the story." And I have built as well
[89:16] like my AI is able to cover like a
[89:18] skeleton. Like so, when I say like,
[89:20] "Hey, new JMS show." It it's it pulls up
[89:23] the same opening slide template, so it
[89:26] pulls up Let's go back.
[89:29] It generates this slide, except it'll
[89:31] make it go from 108 to 109. It pulls in
[89:33] the date that I want. And then it pulls
[89:36] in like the I do chapters, and there's
[89:38] content slides. Like all my slides have
[89:39] the same design. And then I upload all
[89:42] the resources that I want in here, and I
[89:44] I'm able to link the sources and any
[89:46] notes and stuff. And then it helps me
[89:49] build it out. And then once I do build
[89:51] it out, this is also an app. This is not
[89:55] like a This is not like PowerPoint. So,
[89:58] what what do I mean by that? It will
[90:00] generate this stuff, but if it makes a
[90:02] mistake, I'm able to go in here and
[90:04] click and edit it. So, oil bonds and
[90:06] Bitcoin.
[90:07] [ __ ]
[90:10] And I edit it and I click out, and boom,
[90:12] saved. And so, I built all this
[90:15] software. So, I'm not relying I'm not
[90:17] outsourcing the knowledge.
[90:19] What I am doing though is what I used to
[90:21] have to do is I would take screenshots
[90:23] of everything. I would need to open it
[90:24] all up in a browser. It would crash my
[90:26] browser.
[90:27] It just makes me a better artist at
[90:29] conveying my ideas and my thoughts. And
[90:32] what I use AI for is I build myself
[90:35] tooling
[90:36] to
[90:38] make myself more efficient and help
[90:40] myself express my ideas. But I go in
[90:43] here and I edit all this stuff. So, this
[90:45] is all editable text.
[90:47] And so,
[90:48] it's it's actually a really pleasure
[90:51] pleasurable experience for me
[90:52] cuz I take all of my ideas, I upload
[90:55] them into my own tool, I talk to the AI.
[90:57] I say like, "I think this is the outline
[90:59] and the ordering. This is what makes
[91:00] sense."
[91:01] And then it produces it for me in like
[91:04] 30 seconds, and then I go through it and
[91:06] I type in and I edit it, and I go back
[91:07] and forth with it, and then I hit live
[91:10] stream and I talk to you guys.
[91:12] So, yeah, I mean, it's incredible. And I
[91:15] mean, as a reminder,
[91:17] I built
[91:19] uh liveonbitcoin.jackmallers.com.
[91:22] This was AI. Same thing.
[91:25] Same thing. I built this
[91:27] with AI. So,
[91:29] the the really interesting thing with AI
[91:32] is actually
[91:33] um
[91:36] it's actually
[91:39] you're limited by your imagination.
[91:41] You're limited by your creativity.
[91:44] You're limited by your ability to
[91:46] articulate and express.
[91:49] You know, when people say like, "Who's
[91:50] the smartest person you've ever met?"
[91:54] You know, peop What what people think is
[91:57] smart is like, "Oh, well, I have a
[91:59] friend that went to Harvard and got a
[92:00] 4.0 and works at Goldman Sachs."
[92:03] Yeah, but what we've learned is that AI
[92:06] can actually do that. And so, that's not
[92:09] the hard part. The hard part
[92:12] is the like
[92:14] human element of well, can you have a
[92:17] vision and articulate that vision in a
[92:19] way
[92:21] that allows other people to understand
[92:23] the vision?
[92:24] And can you lead other people
[92:27] in a way that allows the vision to
[92:29] become reality? Now, that to me is the
[92:32] artistry of being human. AI's never
[92:35] going to be good at that. AI has no
[92:37] taste. It has no touch. It has no
[92:40] character.
[92:41] Right? These are all the things I talk
[92:43] about all the time that I pride myself
[92:45] on. These are the intangibles of being
[92:47] human.
[92:48] And so, when with AI, it's totally
[92:51] flipped of like how good of a programmer
[92:54] are you? How good of an accountant are
[92:55] you? Well, when the marginal cost of
[92:58] intelligence, of software, of
[93:00] accounting, when the marginal cost of
[93:02] all of that is zero or as close to zero
[93:04] as possible, what are you at What are
[93:06] the limitations? What are the physical
[93:07] limitations? The physical limitations
[93:10] are how imag imaginative are you?
[93:13] How much of a visionary are you?
[93:15] How many ideas do you have? How easy can
[93:18] you express and articulate those ideas?
[93:20] How good of taste and touch do you have?
[93:24] That is what matters.
[93:27] Does that make sense? So, I use AI like
[93:30] AI went from
[93:31] you know, like, "Man, work is a slog and
[93:33] I can't wait to get off work." to like,
[93:35] "I can't stop working."
[93:37] Like I can't stop building stuff. Every
[93:40] time I talk to you guys, like look at
[93:41] all these tools. I'm building new tools
[93:43] and new stuff. It's like directly
[93:45] applicable. So, now, if we go, we can go
[93:47] to jms.jackmallers.com/108,
[93:50] and this is the show that I just
[93:52] presented. You guys can go see my
[93:53] slides. And here, you can click into the
[93:56] resources. So, now all of you guys have
[93:58] access to all of the resources I
[94:00] collected over the last week.
[94:02] Cool, right?
[94:04] So, I think AI changes the world in that
[94:06] way, and that's why I said I think AI
[94:09] will bring about an art renaissance
[94:12] because
[94:13] humans will be left to their natural
[94:18] I mean, we're we're we're creators.
[94:20] We're we're artists, really. And I don't
[94:23] mean literally like painting or making a
[94:25] song.
[94:26] Although that, too. I mean more like
[94:29] what I'm doing is artistry in my
[94:30] opinion, you know? We'll be left to
[94:33] creating. We won't have to do the actual
[94:35] labor of making the things
[94:38] will real. We'll have We'll be left with
[94:40] the labor of creating.
[94:43] That and I think that'll be beautiful.
[94:45] And and and you have to pair that with
[94:47] good money, too, because if you don't
[94:48] have a hard money that can actually make
[94:50] you future-oriented, then creating is
[94:53] impossible. You can't create things.
[94:55] Like the Wright brothers were be able
[94:57] were able to fly because they had gold
[94:59] under their mattress. That's like
[95:01] infamously part of their story is they
[95:03] were able to save gold and say like,
[95:05] "Fuck it. Let's try and fly."
[95:07] knowing that like we've got a little
[95:09] gold under our mattress. But when your
[95:11] future is uncertain because your money
[95:13] is not hard,
[95:14] well, then
[95:15] humans become far less future-oriented.
[95:17] You can't place a premium on on your
[95:19] future.
[95:21] And so, if you pair Bitcoin and AI, you
[95:23] get a future-oriented
[95:26] uh species that can fully focus on
[95:29] creating.
[95:32] That's what I think we'll That's what I
[95:34] think we're embarking on.
[95:36] Personally. Who knows, though? I'm wrong
[95:38] all the time.
[95:40] All right. Let me blow myself up. You
[95:43] guys can see these big blue eyes.
[95:47] Um
[95:49] Dylan, question. With energy-backed
[95:51] finance returning, will Bitcoin be the
[95:53] global settlement layer or will
[95:54] nation-states build rival energy-backed
[95:56] money?
[95:57] I think Bitcoin will be the global
[95:59] settlement layer. I think Bitcoin's
[96:01] energy money. The competitor in that
[96:03] notion is gold.
[96:05] And gold has certain attributes in that
[96:08] it's more familiar, and it's
[96:11] it's a bigger. I mean, if Bitcoin were
[96:13] also a $30 trillion asset, it would be
[96:15] whipping gold's ass.
[96:17] Like
[96:18] Bitcoin settles faster, easier to store.
[96:21] Like it's better pound for pound. It's
[96:23] just not big enough. It's not well
[96:24] distributed enough yet. So, gold has its
[96:27] advantages in that if there's an asset
[96:30] that is going to absorb the sovereign
[96:31] debt market today, like if we are
[96:33] basically saying
[96:35] government bonds are dead, long live
[96:37] gold.
[96:39] Can't Can't move
[96:41] like all of the tens of trillions of
[96:43] dollars government bonds into Bitcoin or
[96:46] hundreds of trillions.
[96:47] Bitcoin's the size of Tesla right now.
[96:52] Is what it is.
[96:53] Um but I think eventually it will be
[96:55] Bitcoin. It's just going to take a
[96:56] little bit of time. Jack, how would you
[96:58] juggle stacking sats versus starting
[97:00] your own business? It's killing me not
[97:02] to be able to buy right now. I'm
[97:04] starting a plumbing business, and I need
[97:05] the funds for that.
[97:08] Um
[97:10] I don't know, dude. I mean, you can
[97:11] obviously take out a loan. You could buy
[97:13] Bitcoin, borrow against it to fund your
[97:15] business, but that's leverage, right?
[97:17] And if something goes wrong with the
[97:18] business, you might find yourself in
[97:19] trouble. So,
[97:21] um
[97:23] I'm not sure I have a
[97:26] I'm not sure I have an answer for you,
[97:27] dude. I think uh
[97:29] it's up to you
[97:31] and your lifestyle and what you care
[97:32] about. How passionate are you about the
[97:34] business? How dire
[97:36] are you for cash flow versus the
[97:38] Bitcoin?
[97:39] That's something only you can answer.
[97:41] But I will say
[97:43] cash flow, building a business that's
[97:45] profitable, which means you are net
[97:47] producer to society. You're doing
[97:48] something productive for the world.
[97:50] That's the greatest asset along with
[97:52] Bitcoin. Cuz for one, you're making the
[97:54] world a better place. Having a
[97:55] profitable thing is literally making the
[97:57] world a better place. You are producing
[97:59] more value for the world than you're
[98:01] consuming from the world.
[98:03] So, that's an awesome thing to create. I
[98:05] encourage everyone to do that.
[98:07] And then you can buy as much Bitcoin as
[98:09] you need with the cash flows.
[98:11] So, you know,
[98:13] always be careful of leverage. Always be
[98:15] careful of positioning yourself as not a
[98:17] net producer. People say like, "How do I
[98:20] live on Bitcoin with no income?" Well,
[98:23] you're retired. There's definitely math
[98:25] to do there, but I always try and
[98:27] recommend people be productive person,
[98:29] earn more than they spend.
[98:31] So, I don't know if that was useful, but
[98:33] ultimately it's up to you, dude. Like
[98:35] depends. If If you were to say, "Oh,
[98:37] well, I'm in the middle of a divorce and
[98:38] I have eight kids." and then the answer
[98:40] becomes more obvious. If you're like,
[98:42] "Well, I'm 21 and I'm in my mom's
[98:44] basement. I don't have much to lose, and
[98:46] I don't really like this business
[98:47] anyway." Well, then the answer's
[98:49] obvious. So, you know, it's up to you,
[98:51] man. It's up to you. Trust your gut.
[98:54] Uh hey Jack, quick question.
[98:56] Isn't BTC the greater fool theory? It
[98:58] has zero non-monetary utilities because
[99:01] you can only choose to hold it or pass
[99:02] it along to the next person.
[99:04] No.
[99:06] Um Oh, man.
[99:08] You guys are baiting me with these
[99:09] questions.
[99:10] So,
[99:12] uh I would say
[99:15] >> [sighs]
[99:16] >> I just I'm looking at the clock. Do I
[99:17] spend 5 minutes ranting?
[99:20] The answer is yes.
[99:22] So,
[99:24] um
[99:26] money doesn't need non-monetary uses. In
[99:29] fact,
[99:31] non-monetary uses that compete for
[99:34] monetary uses are bad for the money
[99:37] itself. Let me explain.
[99:39] First of all, what is money?
[99:42] Money is a market good.
[99:44] Just like a cheeseburger, just like a
[99:46] car, just like an airplane.
[99:49] Except has one very unique property,
[99:53] money.
[99:55] You acquire money not to consume it.
[99:59] Okay? You acquire the money to save it
[100:03] and later exchange it for the things you
[100:04] need. What do I mean by that?
[100:07] Well, I acquire a cheeseburger to eat
[100:10] it, to consume it.
[100:12] I don't acquire a cheeseburger to stave
[100:14] it save it, put it in a vault, and then
[100:16] later exchange it for things I need.
[100:18] That's not why I acquire a cheeseburger.
[100:20] It's also not why I acquire a car, why I
[100:22] acquire
[100:23] uh even a house.
[100:25] Right? Some people do use a house as
[100:27] money. They acquire a house not to live
[100:29] in it, but to save it and then later
[100:31] sell it. That would be monetizing real
[100:33] estate.
[100:34] But the point is, in a market,
[100:37] we're always buying and selling things
[100:39] with each other.
[100:40] The question is, are you acquiring said
[100:42] thing to save and later exchange it for
[100:45] the things that you actually need to
[100:46] consume, or are you acquiring a said
[100:48] thing to consume? If you're acquiring
[100:50] said thing not to actually consume it,
[100:52] but to save it and later sell it, you're
[100:54] monetizing it. That's money. That's all
[100:56] money is.
[100:57] And you can use whatever you want for
[100:58] money.
[101:00] Okay? Let's go to the coincidence of
[101:02] wants.
[101:03] If I am growing bananas and you're
[101:06] growing apples,
[101:08] okay?
[101:09] And I want some of your apples and you
[101:12] want some of my bananas,
[101:15] you have what I want
[101:17] and I have what you want. We
[101:18] coincidentally want what each other has
[101:21] and have what each other wants.
[101:24] Now, what if I want some of your apples
[101:25] and you don't want my bananas? You want
[101:27] blueberries.
[101:30] That's a problem of the coincidence of
[101:31] wants. We don't coincidentally want what
[101:33] each other has and have what each other
[101:35] wants.
[101:36] So, what do I need to do? I need to find
[101:38] someone who has blueberries that wants
[101:41] bananas.
[101:42] I sell my bananas for blueberries, but
[101:45] I'm acquiring the blueberries not to eat
[101:47] the blueberries. I'm acquiring the
[101:49] blueberries to later exchange the
[101:50] blueberries for your apples cuz I want
[101:52] to eat the apples.
[101:54] I just monetized blueberries. I used
[101:57] blueberries as money for the very simple
[101:59] reason that I bought the blueberries not
[102:02] to consume them, but to save them and
[102:03] later exchange them. That's what made
[102:05] them money in that instance.
[102:07] That's it. So, once you realize all
[102:09] money is is a market good that you are
[102:12] acquiring not to consume, but instead to
[102:15] save and later exchange,
[102:17] then you realize money doesn't actually
[102:19] need to have non-monetary uses.
[102:23] In fact, it's not good for it.
[102:26] Let me explain. Gold, okay?
[102:30] What makes money valuable, in large
[102:32] part, is scarcity.
[102:34] Right? You need the money to be such
[102:38] that the only way to acquire it is by
[102:40] expending time and energy,
[102:42] which is what we all do by working and
[102:44] producing value.
[102:46] If
[102:47] I have to produce time and energy to
[102:49] acquire dollars, but someone else can
[102:51] just print them out of thin air, that's
[102:52] not good money. That money will fail.
[102:54] It'll be highly inflationary. It'll
[102:56] distort our ability to price and
[102:59] exchange our collective efforts. That's
[103:01] what fiat is, not good. Okay?
[103:03] So, how can you measure the scarcity of
[103:06] a money? There's something called the
[103:07] stock to flow ratio.
[103:10] How much existing stockpile exists
[103:13] versus what's the new issuance? What's
[103:15] the flow?
[103:16] Okay? And so, for example, gold,
[103:19] okay?
[103:20] Gold's inflation rate is about 2%. So,
[103:21] there's a large existing pile of gold
[103:24] that already exist. There's about 2%
[103:26] more created relative to the existing
[103:28] stock.
[103:30] Now, to have a better stock to flow
[103:32] ratio, you want the biggest stockpile
[103:34] you can possibly find.
[103:36] You want there to be like 10 times as
[103:39] much gold as there actually is because
[103:42] every new issuance means it's a smaller
[103:44] relative it's smaller relative to the
[103:47] larger stockpile. Does that make sense?
[103:49] Let me give you an example. Let's go
[103:51] back to my bananas. Let's say Jack
[103:52] bananas is the money. There's only 10
[103:55] Jack bananas and I produce one a day.
[103:57] I'm That's a lot of new stock cuz when I
[104:00] go when we go from 10 to 11, that's
[104:03] highly inflationary to the banana pile,
[104:05] right?
[104:06] What we wish is that there was a billion
[104:08] Jack bananas. And if I if I produce one
[104:11] new Jack banana, that's hardly
[104:13] inflationary at all at all. That's one
[104:15] out of 1 billion. The stock to flow
[104:17] ratio is tiny. Who gives a [ __ ]
[104:19] So, the larger the stockpile,
[104:23] the scarcer the thing relative to the
[104:25] new flow.
[104:27] So, when something is used
[104:30] non-monetarily, it reduces the stock.
[104:33] The stock is only the monetary
[104:35] stockpile.
[104:37] So, if half of the gold in the world is
[104:39] used to make electronics, to make
[104:42] weaponry, to make iPhones, it reduces
[104:45] the total stock that's measured relative
[104:47] to the new gold that's being produced.
[104:50] You actually do not want the money to be
[104:52] consumed. The point of the money is to
[104:55] not consume it at all. You don't want to
[104:57] be able to eat your money, to wear your
[104:59] money, to build your money with iPhones.
[105:02] So, you don't want any of that.
[105:04] You want the thing to just be what
[105:06] people acquire
[105:08] not to consume, not to eat it, not to
[105:10] fly it, not to drive it, not to wear it.
[105:13] It's the thing that they acquire to
[105:14] save.
[105:16] Cuz then the monetary stockpile will be
[105:18] as big as possible. And in and for
[105:19] Bitcoin, the flow ends up being zero.
[105:22] It's the only thing where the flow gets
[105:24] to zero. Meaning, it's a fixed supply,
[105:26] only 21 million. There is no more flow.
[105:30] And so, when people say, "Dude, what the
[105:31] [ __ ] Bitcoin doesn't have any other use
[105:32] cases besides being money." Good.
[105:35] Like, I can't touch it. I can't hold it.
[105:37] I can't put it in jewelry. I can't put
[105:38] it in my iPhone. Good.
[105:41] If half the Bitcoin,
[105:43] think about it this way. If if half the
[105:45] Bitcoin
[105:47] was used in rapper music videos and in
[105:49] jewelry,
[105:50] then the new Bitcoins that are being
[105:52] mined would be hot way more inflationary
[105:55] to the total stock.
[105:57] We want this to We want it to be 21
[105:59] million. That's it. And the fact that
[106:01] the halving happens each time, it gets
[106:02] less inflationary over time.
[106:05] So, it's all it's it's all according to
[106:07] plan, how money's supposed to be. And
[106:09] when idiots like Peter Schiff say,
[106:13] "Oh, well, Bitcoin can't be used in
[106:16] jewelry and gold can." That's They There
[106:18] is a fundamental misunderstanding of how
[106:21] basic economics works.
[106:25] Why Why did gold
[106:28] beat out silver as the metal?
[106:30] Because it was the money that had better
[106:33] monetary properties and was used more
[106:35] for money. Silver was Silver has more
[106:38] demand non-monetary demand than gold.
[106:41] So, why is silver not better money? It
[106:43] has more monetary Look around you.
[106:45] There's silver everywhere. In my laptop,
[106:47] on my walls, my little cupboards pull
[106:50] out. There's silver. There's silver
[106:52] everywhere. Silverware. I'm eating When
[106:55] I go eat dinner with my girlfriend after
[106:56] this, I'm going to be using my
[106:57] silverware.
[106:59] Why is silver not better money?
[107:01] It has more non-monetary uses. Well,
[107:03] because that's not the point. The point
[107:06] is to be only monetary.
[107:11] We move on.
[107:12] Dylan, can you ask Jack for me what he
[107:14] thinks AI is going to do to financial
[107:17] planner/advisors, and if he was in my
[107:19] shoes, how he would pitch Bitcoin to
[107:21] clients?
[107:23] Hmm. I think Bitcoin is probably more
[107:26] long-term threatening than uh
[107:30] than
[107:33] than AI to I It depends on what you're
[107:36] doing. But I would say, hopefully,
[107:40] we don't need as many. I don't want to
[107:41] be disrespectful. So, you know, I mean
[107:43] this with with no disrespect. But
[107:45] hopefully, we don't need as many
[107:47] financial planners and advisors
[107:50] because it's really simple. Money that
[107:52] you need to save, you save in Bitcoin.
[107:54] Money you need to spend, you spend. And
[107:56] that's it.
[107:58] And if there's a company that you want
[108:00] to invest in because you believe in it,
[108:01] then you buy equity in it. And that's
[108:03] it.
[108:05] And it's not that complicated to save
[108:08] money.
[108:09] Unfortunately, the problem is right now,
[108:11] because we live in this destructive
[108:14] monetary era where all of our currencies
[108:16] are being debased and we're living
[108:18] through persistent levels of inflation
[108:20] where you can't just save,
[108:22] everyone needs to be an expert in
[108:24] equities, in bonds, in Japanese monetary
[108:28] policy
[108:29] in order to just like survive and end up
[108:32] buying a house. And that's [ __ ]
[108:33] [ __ ] And what you get One of the
[108:35] best things about money is what's called
[108:38] the division of labor. Is where humans
[108:41] can hyper-specialize
[108:43] on very niche things because they don't
[108:45] have to barter.
[108:47] Like, I can't go to Whole Foods tonight
[108:48] and say, "Hey, I recorded an episode of
[108:51] JMS. I'll take two ribeyes." They'll be
[108:53] like, "I don't give a [ __ ] about
[108:55] whatever you just said. What am I
[108:57] supposed to do with that? I need money.
[108:59] I need money. That's what pays my rent.
[109:02] That's what gets me the things I need. I
[109:04] don't know what you're talking about."
[109:06] So, instead of needing to barter, I get
[109:09] paid money.
[109:11] And that's the division of labor. It
[109:13] allows humans to be experts in really
[109:15] niche things. So, we have financial
[109:18] planners and massage therapists and
[109:21] doctors and CEOs.
[109:24] And instead of bartering, we all have
[109:25] money. Now, the problem is if the
[109:27] money's broken,
[109:29] people are only spending half their time
[109:31] on being a good doctor and the other
[109:33] half they're spending speculating,
[109:35] studying
[109:37] uh S&P 500, uh studying Robinhood
[109:40] options, uh studying Japanese monetary
[109:43] policy. And it makes us all worse at our
[109:46] craft because we're spending so much
[109:48] time just trying to save the work we've
[109:51] already done.
[109:53] It's [ __ ]
[109:55] So, if I'm being honest with you,
[109:57] I hope that we
[109:59] can like move on from that, where it's
[110:01] like actually really easy to save money.
[110:05] That's my goal.
[110:07] I don't know, bro. Now, when when is
[110:09] that time when is that going to happen
[110:11] and like am I saying that like, you
[110:12] know, you should quit your job? No, no,
[110:14] no, no, no. Of course not. Of course
[110:15] not.
[110:16] But I hope Bitcoin solves that for us,
[110:18] where it's like, okay, I do something. I
[110:21] earn more than I spend. The excess is
[110:23] called savings. I save in
[110:26] a hard money, Bitcoin, the best money
[110:28] that we have as far as I'm concerned.
[110:30] If I want to own equity in, you know,
[110:33] future work of, you know, some group, I
[110:37] buy said equity as an investment. And
[110:40] that's it.
[110:41] And I go about my life.
[110:43] I don't It doesn't get more complicated
[110:45] than that. I don't need any advice on
[110:46] how to do that.
[110:49] Okay. Strike questions. Hey Dylan,
[110:52] curious to know a rough timeline for the
[110:54] line of credit to roll out to more
[110:56] states. Jack said it wouldn't take long.
[110:58] Any more details?
[111:00] I don't think we want to commit to
[111:01] timelines because it's never beneficial
[111:04] to us. Like, what if something changes?
[111:06] Then we I just look like a liar.
[111:09] And that's no fun.
[111:11] So, I would say the plan is not to take
[111:14] This is not like a yearly rollout. This
[111:16] is not This should be quick.
[111:19] How quick, though? Again,
[111:21] I want to We gave it to a a few states.
[111:24] I want to see how that goes.
[111:26] Uh and I want to just make sure that the
[111:28] product is perfect.
[111:30] It's a, you know,
[111:31] it's a brand new
[111:33] the Bitcoin space
[111:35] hasn't really innovated a lot on credit.
[111:38] Everyone just has these like 12-month
[111:40] loans. Fairly the same pricing, fairly
[111:42] the same LTV, you know, blah, blah,
[111:44] blah, blah, blah.
[111:45] We're starting to really innovate here,
[111:47] which I'm really excited about. We're
[111:48] going to push the needle in this area,
[111:51] which is really exciting. But
[111:55] I just want to make sure we do it right
[111:56] and that like it's the quality of
[111:59] product that people expect from us.
[112:01] That's all.
[112:03] Uh any talk of optimal way to migrate
[112:06] the loan product to the line of credit
[112:08] product? I don't know the answer to
[112:10] that. It doesn't look like there's an
[112:12] answer here from anyone on my team. So,
[112:15] I'm going to say I'll get back to you on
[112:18] that. I'm not entirely sure.
[112:20] Um it's not a bad idea, though. I'll
[112:22] tell you that much.
[112:23] Um Dylan, can you have Jack touch on
[112:26] sub-accounts on Strike?
[112:29] Um it's coming. No timeline, but uh it
[112:32] is on our road map. I know that for a
[112:34] fact.
[112:35] Um
[112:37] Question, Jack, what's the latest
[112:39] timeline for yield on cash? Thanks,
[112:40] brother. We're working on it.
[112:43] Um
[112:44] again,
[112:47] I don't I feel like a lot of these are I
[112:49] don't have any specific timeline for you
[112:51] guys, but these are all like actively on
[112:53] the road map. Like we're working on
[112:54] them. Like I had a morning a meeting
[112:56] this morning about yield on cash.
[112:59] So, like super
[113:01] uh active priority for us. So, you know,
[113:04] like hopefully Q2 and we're at the end
[113:06] of Q1 type of thing for us.
[113:08] Um
[113:10] Dylan, we have been asking for multiple
[113:12] episodes. Can you have Jack cover where
[113:14] we are at on the sub-accounts?
[113:17] Uh let's see. This is an answer from the
[113:19] team. Transparently, we prioritized
[113:22] getting the line of credit done and out
[113:24] to the market and now we're back working
[113:26] on this. We call it stacks internally,
[113:28] these sub-accounts.
[113:29] Um we're excited to ship it uh
[113:32] in the first half of the year, which
[113:34] means in the next 3 months.
[113:37] Next 3 months.
[113:40] Uh when you pay your bills becomes a
[113:41] taxable event, how do you specify what
[113:44] BTC you used? Is it Bitcoin from 5 years
[113:46] ago, Bitcoin you bought at 126K, cap
[113:49] gains? Why I don't do this, it's very
[113:51] confusing.
[113:52] So, we use HIFO.
[113:55] Uh
[113:56] it's the
[113:57] highest in, first out.
[114:00] We think that that's the most
[114:01] straightforward approach. Uh it should
[114:04] relieve you of all of those concerns and
[114:06] confusion.
[114:07] Um obviously, you can file however you
[114:09] want, but we
[114:12] use HIFO.
[114:14] Uh
[114:15] and that that's how the product is able
[114:17] to support you in that capacity.
[114:20] Hopefully, that's useful.
[114:22] Uh
[114:25] let's see. Okay, other questions.
[114:28] Sometimes these are fun.
[114:30] Favorite place to visit in El Salvador
[114:32] and your pupusa order.
[114:34] I'm not going to lie.
[114:37] When I go back to El Salvador, I
[114:38] actually don't usually get pupusas cuz
[114:40] I'm more of a carnivore guy now.
[114:42] So,
[114:46] um but I did I had pupusas when I was
[114:49] there. They were very good. I don't know
[114:51] what my favorite one was. All of them.
[114:52] They're
[114:53] any of them with cheese. Like a very
[114:55] cheesy pupusa is very good. They've got
[114:57] some hot sauce. It's nice. It's nice.
[115:01] Uh I tried to use the website, but
[115:04] cannot change the slides. It's stuck on
[115:06] the first slide. No UI elements. Does
[115:08] Jack have to enable that for the latest
[115:10] slide or is that some issue with Brave?
[115:13] I don't know. I have to admit, I did not
[115:16] test my slide deck in the Brave browser.
[115:22] Maybe that's it. AI is useless.
[115:27] It works in Chrome, it works in Safari.
[115:29] It might be a Brave thing. I can look
[115:32] into it when I have time.
[115:34] Um but I would say
[115:36] use Chrome or Safari if that's okay with
[115:40] you.
[115:41] And uh
[115:42] yeah, it works there, at least for me.
[115:45] And if it doesn't, just write a YouTube
[115:46] comment and I'll take a look.
[115:48] Yo, Jack, can you tell us more about how
[115:50] {slash} why you use the sauna as a
[115:52] spiritual practice?
[115:57] I don't know how spiritual it is for me.
[116:01] Well, not that it's not spiritual. It's
[116:03] not not spiritual, but it's not
[116:05] spiritual.
[116:06] Um I would say
[116:09] I'm it's more just like a health I I've
[116:12] gotten into just like being healthy.
[116:15] The health rabbit hole reminds me of the
[116:16] Bitcoin rabbit hole, where the more you
[116:18] learn and the more you're curious and
[116:20] the more you kind of build your own
[116:21] opinions, you realize like, holy [ __ ] a
[116:23] lot of modern medicine, like modern
[116:26] uh econ like a lot of modern medicine
[116:28] reminds me of Keynesian economics, where
[116:30] I'm like, this violates all first
[116:32] principles thinking. It doesn't make any
[116:33] sense.
[116:34] I'm like, why is everyone so loaded up
[116:36] on carbohydrates
[116:38] all the time? So, anyways, I got into
[116:40] sauna just for the very direct health
[116:43] benefits.
[116:45] Um
[116:46] and things like like I optimize for my
[116:48] VO2 max.
[116:50] My cardiovascular age
[116:52] is a lot younger than my actual age. My
[116:55] VO2 max is very good.
[116:58] And so, sauna
[117:00] uh I've benefited from the health
[117:03] benefits of sauna. It's also probably
[117:05] spiritual as well.
[117:06] But I would say
[117:08] it's more of like a health thing for me.
[117:11] Like the reason I do carnivore. And
[117:13] honestly, if you guys are interested,
[117:15] maybe someday this is the thing. Like
[117:18] with AI, anything's possible. I can
[117:20] probably build something that kind of
[117:23] walks through my health interests.
[117:26] And you know, I'm sure
[117:28] you guys can teach me a lot. There's a
[117:30] wealth of knowledge out there. Um I'm,
[117:33] you know, as much as I know about
[117:34] Bitcoin, I did I would not say I'm as
[117:37] much of an expert in health. I'm I'm
[117:39] much more of a pleb just trying to
[117:41] learn. So,
[117:43] maybe I share more and you guys can
[117:44] teach me a thing or two. But uh things
[117:46] like carnivore, sauna, um I do I have to
[117:50] say
[117:51] I know weight training
[117:54] and strength training
[117:55] is theoretically better than
[117:59] long distance running and cardio and
[118:01] stuff, but I just really enjoy
[118:04] the cardio stuff. I love running and
[118:07] playing basketball. So, I run I either
[118:10] long distance run or play basketball.
[118:11] Like for example, today,
[118:14] where I when I usually would play
[118:15] basketball, I'm recording this, so I
[118:17] can't play basketball on Mondays. So,
[118:19] I'll go running. So, I'll run or play
[118:21] basketball 3 to 4 days a week and then
[118:23] the days that I don't run or play
[118:24] basketball, I'll do weight training. So,
[118:26] I probably weight train like three times
[118:27] a week.
[118:28] And I stick to relatively strict
[118:31] carnivore, but it's not hard for me at
[118:33] this point. It's just what I prefer.
[118:35] Like I just don't I don't want to eat
[118:37] pasta or a bunch of other [ __ ] I just
[118:40] prefer
[118:41] steak and I order from
[118:44] uh farms, like big bulk orders. So, it
[118:46] gives me all different types of cuts of
[118:48] meat and it's usually fun because I'll
[118:50] get a cut of meat I've never cooked
[118:51] before and I got to figure it out and I
[118:53] got a smoker and that's fun.
[118:56] And uh yeah, I try and sauna almost
[118:58] every day.
[118:59] Do like 20 minutes, one session.
[119:05] And yeah, my
[119:06] my heart rate
[119:08] uh is like low low mid-50s.
[119:13] Uh
[119:15] my VO2 max is very good. My
[119:18] cardiovascular age is a lot younger than
[119:20] me. And uh
[119:23] And
[119:25] yeah, my blood panels are really good.
[119:28] Um
[119:30] Trying to think. I don't know.
[119:33] I don't know. I've You know, I've always
[119:34] kind of considered uh
[119:37] you know
[119:38] open-sourcing more of my life.
[119:41] Not to imply that people will give a
[119:44] [ __ ] They probably won't.
[119:46] But just to There's a level of freedom
[119:50] in like open source.
[119:51] And you know, like
[119:53] like the freest man is a man with no
[119:55] secrets. And sometimes I'm curious like
[119:59] should I just upload my like blood panel
[120:01] to the internet? And my diet, and my
[120:04] finances.
[120:06] And just kind of share with the world
[120:09] how I'm navigating things.
[120:12] It could be cool in like a very
[120:13] transparent approach to
[120:16] being the CEO
[120:19] of a big company. Again, like I don't
[120:21] think people want to do business with
[120:23] large corporations. I think they like
[120:24] doing business with other people that
[120:26] they relate to and they see themselves
[120:28] in. And that that's who I I like
[120:30] supporting local businesses and going to
[120:32] local butchers and local restaurants.
[120:35] It's the same thing.
[120:36] Um
[120:37] So, I've thought about that.
[120:39] You know, usually I've never had the
[120:40] time, right? Like all this stuff feels
[120:42] overwhelming, but with AI I have the
[120:44] time for whatever I want. So,
[120:46] anyway.
[120:48] It's my answer.
[120:49] Um okay, guys. Been 2 hours.
[120:52] Uh time to call it for today.
[120:55] Uh but I appreciate you guys. Hang in
[120:57] there. Wild times. Be careful. Um now is
[121:01] not the time probably to uh
[121:04] to
[121:05] you know, just I would turn on your
[121:07] DCAs, uh be humble, stack sats, hunker
[121:10] down, uh be careful.
[121:13] Um yeah, like yeah. I would just yeah.
[121:17] All of those things. All the things we
[121:18] always say. Um interesting times. We'll
[121:20] see how things play out. I mean, the US
[121:22] is the greatest country in the world. Uh
[121:24] I'm sure we'll figure it out, but uh
[121:27] certainly interesting. No doubt about
[121:28] that. Not boring.
[121:30] Um and as always, you guys uh can't hurt
[121:33] my feelings. So, leave uh comments,
[121:35] questions, feedback, and all of the good
[121:38] stuff. Um I check it out. Uh I don't
[121:41] have like a team that reads through
[121:43] everything. It like it's just me. It's
[121:46] just me. So, in my free time, sometimes
[121:49] when I'm laying in bed, I flip through
[121:50] the comments, take some notes. So, um I
[121:53] saw someone ask if I'm going to have any
[121:55] guests ever. I was thinking about that.
[121:57] I don't know though if the guests would
[121:59] be Bitcoin specifically. Like I was
[122:02] thinking like maybe I
[122:04] get like the butcher on that I order
[122:07] from and just talk about meat.
[122:10] I don't know if you guys would be into
[122:11] that. Um
[122:13] I could also obviously bring on Bitcoin
[122:15] people, too. But I don't know like
[122:17] how many times are people going to
[122:18] interview Lyn Alden? You want me to
[122:20] interview Lyn Alden? I could if you
[122:22] want. But it might be cooler to like
[122:24] expand it a little bit and talk talk to
[122:27] other founders. I I have some mentors
[122:29] that aren't necessarily Bitcoiners.
[122:31] Um like Jason Freed is a mentor of mine.
[122:34] And I he has a lot of really good
[122:35] insights just about uh creating
[122:37] companies.
[122:39] So, I don't know. I thought about maybe
[122:40] having like non-Bitcoin conversations on
[122:43] here. Maybe they would get like only 10
[122:44] views cuz no one would care. That was an
[122:46] idea. But anyway, give me feedback like
[122:48] that. Kind of curious what you guys
[122:50] would be interested in, what you think.
[122:52] And uh I'll talk to you next week next
[122:53] week. Take care of yourselves. Uh peace
[122:55] and love. Thanks for the support. Take
[122:57] care. And see you next week in New York.