Uncle, Not TACO: Bitcoin in a World on Fire

[0:00] Yo, welcome back to another episode of
[0:04] the Jack Mallers Show. Guess what my
[0:06] name is.
[0:08] Jack. You are listening to yet another
[0:11] edition of Mailbag Monday, ladies and
[0:14] gentlemen, episode 109.
[0:18] To another episode of the Jack Mallers
[0:21] Show. Guess what my name is.
[0:24] Jack. Not a professional podcaster.
[0:26] Sorry about that. Uh without further
[0:28] ado, let's get this show on the road.
[0:33] I'm talking to you all at a Bitcoin
[0:35] price of 74,470.
[0:40] That puts Bitcoin's market cap just
[0:42] below
[0:44] 1.5 trillion at 1.49
[0:48] trillion US dollars. Our all-time high
[0:51] has not changed. 126,160.
[0:56] We are now 41% down from that all-time
[0:59] high that was made 161 days ago from
[1:02] today on October 6th, 2025.
[1:07] What was the last Bitcoin block mined
[1:10] since I hit stream?
[1:12] That would be block height 940,944.
[1:20] All right, ladies and gentlemen, boys
[1:21] and girls,
[1:22] as you can tell I'm on the road.
[1:25] On the road again.
[1:28] Um
[1:29] and I'm very unfortunately on the road.
[1:31] I'll tell you guys about that during my
[1:33] Grind My Gears segment. Nonetheless,
[1:37] uh give me feedback. I hope the sound is
[1:39] coming through. I hope the internet
[1:41] upholds in this hotel.
[1:43] Um
[1:44] so, if it doesn't, the live chat, I hold
[1:46] you guys responsible for keeping me
[1:48] honest here and having me audible in
[1:51] real time. But, I'm going to assume that
[1:53] we're all good to go. And with that,
[1:56] we're going to get into the show.
[1:59] So,
[2:00] today's episode is titled
[2:03] Uncle Not Taco. Oh, quickly, real quick.
[2:07] Um as you guys know, I'm now an AI
[2:10] wizard, a guru. I'm a hacker again. I'm
[2:13] just building, building, building
[2:14] non-stop.
[2:16] And uh all jokes aside, I push each
[2:19] episode, all of the resources that I
[2:21] accumulate, all of the screenshots, the
[2:24] entire deck, I push it now to the web so
[2:27] that you guys can reference the episode.
[2:30] Okay, so the episode now sits at
[2:32] jms.jackmallers.com/episode
[2:36] number. So, this would be /109. You can
[2:38] see it if you're watching on YouTube in
[2:40] the URL up top there. So, if you want to
[2:44] see the deck, be able to link to the
[2:46] resources that I reference, whether it's
[2:47] articles, tweets, uh reports like from
[2:51] Luke or Michael Howell, you can go to
[2:53] jms.jackmallers.com/109.
[2:58] For those of you taking notes at home,
[3:00] those of you taking it seriously.
[3:03] It's not a game. It's not a game.
[3:07] They are who we thought they were.
[3:09] All right.
[3:10] Uh let's go. The title today, Uncle Not
[3:13] Taco. Bitcoin in a world that can't be
[3:16] reversed with a tweet. And
[3:18] just for those of you, I know half of my
[3:20] audience is American, and the other half
[3:22] is a hodgepodge
[3:25] from all over the world, which I love
[3:26] and I adore. But um
[3:29] the just so you guys know, Taco stands
[3:32] for Trump always chickens out. And the
[3:36] in a world that can't be reversed with a
[3:37] tweet, the idea is Trump typically
[3:41] he he wrote a book once called The Art
[3:43] of the Deal. I think that was the title.
[3:45] At least it was about The Art of the
[3:46] Deal. And the idea was Trump
[3:50] uh he likes pushing people to the
[3:52] limits. He's a master negotiator. He's
[3:55] constantly pushing for ultimately what
[3:57] he wants and he's willing to push push
[4:00] push push push people to their absolute
[4:03] limits in order to get what he wants.
[4:06] You ever heard of, you know, shoot for
[4:07] the stars fall on the moon or shoot for
[4:10] the moon fall on the stars? No, the
[4:11] first one. Shoot for the stars fall on
[4:12] the moon. His idea is he's going to be
[4:15] extreme. He's going to point the gun at
[4:17] you, not to actually pull the trigger,
[4:19] but Trump just wants to compromise. He
[4:22] just wants to get his way. And we've
[4:25] seen this traditionally with tariffs.
[4:27] He'll come out with something so
[4:29] extreme, so over the top, and a lot of
[4:32] the media or a lot of our foreign
[4:34] counterparts will take it literally and
[4:36] all he's trying to do is get you to the
[4:38] negotiating table, get you to sit down.
[4:41] Um, and then he's built a reputation for
[4:44] always chickening out, for never
[4:46] actually following through. So, that's
[4:48] taco. Always chickens out. Now, what's
[4:50] uncle?
[4:51] In at least American culture, uncle is
[4:55] when you call it quits, when you
[4:56] surrender. You call uncle, you scream
[4:59] uncle. Okay? So, I want to make sure
[5:01] that my And And maybe that's a global
[5:03] thing. I don't know. Okay, listen, I'm
[5:04] not a professional podcaster.
[5:07] I'm just a bitcoiner. I don't know what
[5:09] is global culture, what is American
[5:11] culture, okay? But, where I'm from, you
[5:14] want to quit, you scream uncle.
[5:17] Okay, you scream uncle.
[5:18] So,
[5:20] the title uncle not taco, what am I
[5:23] saying? I'm saying Trump cannot back out
[5:27] with a tweet. This is not tariffs. This
[5:29] is not just pushing it a little far to
[5:33] get his way.
[5:34] Because we're dealing with real world
[5:37] commodities.
[5:39] This is not tariff negotiations.
[5:43] I'm telling you guys this is different.
[5:45] The point of this episode to very
[5:48] briefly explain that this is different
[5:51] and I expect the US to scream uncle. As
[5:54] an American, I'm concerned.
[5:57] And you guys could say, "Oh, well, who
[5:59] are you? You're just this like
[6:00] 31-year-old Bitcoiner." And I'd say,
[6:03] "You're right.
[6:04] I am and you take my opinions as they
[6:07] are. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm
[6:08] wrong, but the reason you're listening
[6:10] to this is for my opinion. And you want
[6:12] my opinion, I'm worried.
[6:16] I don't see a clean way out.
[6:18] Trump cannot taco.
[6:22] I don't know how this ends well for
[6:24] America.
[6:26] And so, the title of this is uncle not
[6:30] taco.
[6:32] I expect some form of a surrender.
[6:35] Now, obviously, the media won't display
[6:37] it like that. The White House won't
[6:39] describe it as such,
[6:41] but I expect some form of the US
[6:43] screaming uncle, tapping out, giving up.
[6:47] I do not expect a taco.
[6:52] So, without further ado, let's get into
[6:54] it. Chapter 1, this is not a taco. The
[6:58] war, why it won't end soon and why that
[7:03] matters.
[7:05] Okay.
[7:06] First of all, the Strait of Hormuz.
[7:08] For those that don't know, it is
[7:10] critical to the world not only getting
[7:14] oil, which we've now learned, but for
[7:16] supply chains for all sorts of things we
[7:19] consume. We'll get into it in a second,
[7:22] but our food supply chains are being
[7:24] disrupted. Fertilizer.
[7:27] If the fertilizer supply chain is being
[7:29] disrupted, that means our agriculture
[7:32] commodity supply chains are going to be
[7:33] disrupted. As we'll get into it, Brazil,
[7:36] for the first time maybe ever, but at
[7:38] least in the last 20 years, has gone no
[7:40] bid on agriculture commodities.
[7:43] So, the Strait of Hormuz being closed,
[7:45] I've talked about it on this show. This
[7:47] is Iran's way of fighting back. They're
[7:49] going to choose inflation. And inflation
[7:53] is is a direct relationship to energy.
[7:58] Energy is a direct relationship to oil.
[8:00] It's not that complicated.
[8:06] They're going to choose inflation over
[8:08] nuclear.
[8:10] Iran's not going to go nuclear. That was
[8:12] That was my prediction weeks ago.
[8:16] I don't think Iran is going to fight
[8:18] back with nuclear.
[8:20] I think Iran is going to use oil.
[8:23] They're going to use the Strait of
[8:25] Hormuz. And
[8:27] I'll tell you guys this.
[8:29] This is a quote from Luke Gromen. What's
[8:31] the US-Iran scoreboard? How do you know
[8:33] who's winning? This chart right here.
[8:36] This graphic right here.
[8:38] How many ships are getting through the
[8:40] Strait of Hormuz? Because Trump can say
[8:42] whatever he wants. If he had the most
[8:44] powerful military in the world, we'd be
[8:47] able to escort our ships through.
[8:51] Period.
[8:54] We say all the time, "The dollar is
[8:56] backed by the US military. The dollar is
[8:58] backed by the strongest military in the
[9:00] world." Okay?
[9:02] Well, then escort the ships through.
[9:04] Look at this thing drop to zero. This is
[9:07] total tanker transit calls. How many
[9:09] transit calls since this thing started?
[9:12] Zero.
[9:14] We can't get anything through. And I
[9:16] told you guys last week, Trump's like,
[9:18] "Oh, this war is going to take a few
[9:19] days. Oh wait, now it might take a
[9:21] week." I told you guys this war wasn't
[9:23] ending anytime soon.
[9:26] Anytime soon. And we'll get into it in a
[9:28] second.
[9:31] The game of military has changed. There
[9:33] are now drones. There is now artificial
[9:35] intelligence. The US, by hollowing out
[9:39] its industrial base, its ability to
[9:40] produce things, it's come solely reliant
[9:43] on China, the rate of production across
[9:46] all things that matter,
[9:48] we're getting our ass handed to us
[9:52] by foreigners like China.
[9:54] And remind you, who was in Venezuela?
[9:56] Who had their paws all over Venezuela?
[10:00] Russia, China, Iran.
[10:02] Or Iran.
[10:04] It It's an It's It
[10:06] You guys were clowning me. You're like,
[10:08] get a load of this [ __ ] jackass
[10:09] American saying Iran, like I ran a
[10:12] marathon. Okay, it's Iran, I think.
[10:14] Iran.
[10:16] Whatever. Russia, China, Iran.
[10:22] So, this graphic
[10:24] total tanker transit costs. For those of
[10:26] you listening, and I'm in your ears, and
[10:27] you can't see,
[10:30] go going back over the last year, total
[10:33] tanker transit calls across across the
[10:35] Strait of Hormuz were always range bound
[10:38] between 50 and 80.
[10:40] They've fallen off a cliff to zero.
[10:43] Iran shut it down, and there's nothing
[10:46] the US can do about it. That's a huge
[10:49] problem. When I said, "Why are we
[10:52] playing such high-stakes geopolitical
[10:54] poker? Why?"
[10:57] In the best case scenario, we have to
[10:59] embarrassingly
[11:01] call uncle and back out of Iran in order
[11:04] to open this back up.
[11:07] And I'll get into it in a second, but
[11:10] they're they're saying an oil price
[11:12] above $120 triggers a recession, not
[11:15] just inflation. Oil prices right now at
[11:17] $90 a barrel, $100 a barrel. That's
[11:20] inflation. 120 recession. 200 margin
[11:24] call.
[11:25] What are we doing?
[11:29] Uncle not taco. Okay. Now, let's get
[11:33] into the war a little bit. Neither side
[11:35] wants out.
[11:36] Okay, so on one side from Iran, this is
[11:40] direct quote, "A ceasefire is not on the
[11:43] table."
[11:45] People say, "Oh, Iran will take a
[11:47] ceasefire." Trump keeps tweeting it out.
[11:49] The people of Iran would be lucky. I'm
[11:51] willing to come to the table. Their
[11:53] response has been, and you're not going
[11:55] to read this in the Western media. Their
[11:56] response have has been a ceasefire is
[11:59] not on the table for us.
[12:02] The guy who's running Iran right now, we
[12:05] blew up his father and his mother.
[12:08] I mean, I like
[12:10] Listen, I can I'm happy to be wrong, but
[12:13] you want to talk about I'm 31. I'm
[12:15] barely a millennial, right?
[12:17] I've grown up with a distrust of the
[12:19] media only knowing war, debt, and
[12:22] inflation as an American in my life. I
[12:24] don't trust anything I'm reading. The
[12:27] expectation is that we're going to blow
[12:28] up this guy's dad,
[12:30] and that he's going to want to come to
[12:32] the table knowing that we can't get a
[12:34] ship through the Strait of Hormuz?
[12:38] That they've out-droned us? I'll get to
[12:40] it in a second.
[12:42] Our like recent military weapons,
[12:45] we're being out-engineered.
[12:50] Iran is saying, "No, no. You started
[12:53] this. A ceasefire
[12:55] is not on the table.
[12:57] You're going to have to try and get a
[12:58] ship through the Strait of Hormuz.
[13:02] We can't.
[13:10] Now, the former IRGC commander-in-chief,
[13:13] direct quote, "Trump and Netanyahu are
[13:15] trapped in a slaughterhouse in the
[13:17] Persian Gulf."
[13:20] I'm just Listen, I'm just reporting.
[13:23] I think we thought it was sweet, and
[13:26] it's not.
[13:28] And at the end of the day, as it relates
[13:30] to this show and macroeconomics and
[13:33] Bitcoin, you got to do the proof of
[13:35] work. You cannot just print money out of
[13:38] thin air and expect every like that's
[13:40] not how Mother Nature governs, period.
[13:45] Sorry.
[13:47] And people say, "Oh, Jack. Jack doesn't
[13:49] root for America. Jack's not American."
[13:52] Is lying to ourselves and to you guys
[13:55] American? Is that what you want? You
[13:56] want me to lie to you?
[14:00] If you want the truth, if you're man
[14:01] enough for the truth, if you're an
[14:03] adult, keep listening.
[14:05] If you want lies, if you want to be
[14:06] tucked into your crib like a little baby
[14:08] and I stick a pacifier in your mouth and
[14:10] lie to you, then go to go watch some
[14:12] other show.
[14:17] Now, the graphic on the right, check
[14:19] this out, Israeli army chief of staff
[14:21] said in the Guys, this is 5 days ago.
[14:23] "Stopping the fighting now is a mistake.
[14:26] We are prepared with combat plans until
[14:28] Passover in mid-April of next year."
[14:34] Remember last week when I said this
[14:35] thing might last till September. This
[14:37] thing might last until 2027. People say,
[14:40] "No, Jack. No, Trump said he's about to
[14:41] end it." It's not up to Trump. If Trump
[14:44] wants to end it, he has to scream uncle.
[14:46] He has to resign.
[14:50] You guys have to understand something.
[14:53] America's not necessarily winning this
[14:56] war. Now, I'm not saying we're losing
[14:58] it,
[15:00] but I am saying we're not necessarily
[15:02] winning it.
[15:06] And what is Iran's plan? Iran's plan is
[15:08] not to fight back with nuclear. Listen,
[15:11] anyone that wants to battle with the
[15:13] United States now knows where the United
[15:15] States is weakest. Where are we weakest?
[15:18] Debt.
[15:19] Economically.
[15:21] We have too much debt.
[15:24] Iran is going after us where? Our bond
[15:27] market.
[15:28] Inflation, oil.
[15:31] Where Where's the United States weak
[15:33] United States weak? Proof of work.
[15:37] That's where we're weak. Proof of work,
[15:39] debt, borrowing from our future with no
[15:41] productivity and growth to pay it back.
[15:44] Hitting us where it hurts.
[15:49] We go to the next slide. So, listen, I'm
[15:52] not a military combat guy, okay? I can
[15:56] only read a few things when I have time
[15:58] and give my opinion on the show. And
[16:01] it'd be one thing if I was selling
[16:02] advertisers and telling you guys I was
[16:04] an expert in any everything. I'm doing
[16:06] the opposite. This show is fully
[16:08] sponsored and hosted by me. There's no
[16:10] team, there's no ads, none of that [ __ ]
[16:12] It's just my corner of the internet
[16:14] where I get to voice my opinions and
[16:16] tell you guys how I feel. I could be
[16:18] wrong, I could be right, not charging
[16:19] for it, okay? So, you take all my
[16:21] military weaponry opinions with a grain
[16:23] of salt. I'm far from an expert. This
[16:25] stuff's way over my head.
[16:27] I travel, I sit on planes,
[16:29] uh right? When I have my free time, I'm
[16:31] sitting in the terminal. I read news,
[16:33] okay? I like the little newsletters I
[16:35] subscribe to. They're valuable to me. Um
[16:37] helps me form my economic opinions where
[16:40] I feel I am more of an expert. This
[16:41] stuff, I don't really understand, but it
[16:44] felt worthy, okay? This is from a
[16:47] private military contractor in the war
[16:49] zone.
[16:50] Okay.
[16:51] How are we finding out drones are
[16:53] inbound? We are literally looking up in
[16:56] the sky to see if a steel bird is
[16:58] circling above us like a sign from God.
[17:02] How is the Royal Air Force finding out?
[17:04] Goat herders and oil field workers are
[17:06] calling the military.
[17:10] And
[17:11] this it's a longer passage that I didn't
[17:13] put it all in here, but this is a direct
[17:16] quote. The Strait of Hormuz stayed
[17:18] locked down as long as Iran wants, since
[17:22] all this is simple tech.
[17:25] We are being
[17:28] You guys see in the bottom right here.
[17:30] The Pentagon thinks it'll take them at
[17:33] least a month to begin navy escorts. At
[17:37] least. The Pentagon.
[17:42] We can't reopen Hormuz.
[17:49] And mind you, the the the title of this
[17:52] is $30,000 drones versus $300 million
[17:54] radars.
[17:56] Our tech is getting a little old. Our
[18:00] ability to produce newer weaponry is
[18:03] getting a little worse. Why? Because we
[18:07] hollowed out this country. We're reliant
[18:10] on China. China graduates graduates
[18:14] graduates more engineers per year than
[18:17] the US has in total.
[18:23] You break the money, you break society.
[18:25] You fix the money, you fix the world.
[18:27] You cannot print time and energy out of
[18:30] thin air and not expect
[18:35] to I mean, all of these are just natural
[18:38] consequences. I don't know how else to
[18:40] say it.
[18:42] I don't know how else to say it. We're
[18:44] getting our ass handed to us by $30,000
[18:47] drones.
[18:48] We're reliant on farmers to be like,
[18:51] "Hey guys, there's a metal thing flying
[18:53] above my corn."
[18:55] And the Pentagon says I need at least 30
[18:58] days. And I tell you this, if the Strait
[19:00] of Hormuz is closed this time in April,
[19:04] markets have exploded.
[19:08] Washington and Trump are on the clock.
[19:12] And by the way, they know it.
[19:15] This is Iran's point in fighting back.
[19:18] The US doesn't have unlimited time. They
[19:21] are in debt. When you're in debt, when
[19:24] you owe, you don't set the terms.
[19:28] The US does not have unlimited time.
[19:31] So now, let's go to chapter two, smoking
[19:33] craters, the financial cascade that's
[19:34] already underway. Let me tell you guys
[19:36] more about the system that's breaking.
[19:39] Okay, this was interesting. Um
[19:41] Bassett is the BOE of 1992, the Bank of
[19:44] England. So, it's kind of just a funny
[19:47] way of conceptualizing this, but for
[19:50] those who don't know, Scott Bassett
[19:52] Bassett was the one, along with Soros
[19:55] and Druckenmiller, that broke the Bank
[19:57] of England. Okay, for those that don't
[19:59] know, now you know. Druckenmiller and
[20:03] Bassett worked for Soros.
[20:05] Uh I you guys should go watch
[20:07] Druckenmiller's recent interview.
[20:09] Um
[20:10] but the point is, Bassett has found
[20:12] himself in a very similar predicament.
[20:15] So, in 1992, the Bank of England had
[20:17] finite FX reserves to defend its
[20:20] unsustainable British pound valuation.
[20:23] Soros and Bassett shorted it, knowing
[20:25] that the Bank of Bank of England would
[20:27] run out of ammo, would run out of
[20:29] reserves to defend it.
[20:31] Okay, now fast forward to today.
[20:33] Bassett has a finite amount of SPR,
[20:36] petroleum reserves to defend the dollar
[20:39] against oil while Hormuz is closed.
[20:43] So, the market is doing to the United
[20:45] States and to Bassett what he did to
[20:47] England.
[20:49] You're caught in a pickle.
[20:52] You don't have unlimited So, the SPR is
[20:56] effectively empty. Why is it effectively
[20:58] empty? Because the only other time gold
[21:01] or excuse me, oil rallied like this, and
[21:03] it didn't cause a recession, was when?
[21:04] 2022.
[21:06] Why? One of the reasons is because we
[21:08] emptied out our reserves.
[21:10] Joe Biden did this. So, don't For all
[21:13] the political activists in my comments
[21:15] kicking and screaming like a daycare,
[21:18] this isn't about being Republican or
[21:19] Democrat, left or right, blue or red. I
[21:21] say this every episode. Biden was the
[21:23] one that emptied out our reserves in the
[21:25] first place. Trump is the one playing
[21:27] high-stakes geopolitical poker with a
[21:29] bad hand.
[21:31] This is just about printing money out of
[21:33] thin air and doing no proof of work.
[21:36] This is about broken money breaking the
[21:37] world. That's what this is about. So, if
[21:39] you look at the imagery on the left,
[21:42] Dubai crude just broke above $150 a
[21:45] barrel.
[21:48] So, you you have these analysts that
[21:49] say, "Oh, oil markets are calming down."
[21:51] No, the [ __ ] they're not.
[21:55] Middle Eastern physical oil is bid up
[21:59] into the right.
[22:00] Up into the right.
[22:03] And this is more evidence that the
[22:05] Strait of Hormuz is on lockdown, and
[22:08] there's nothing we can do about it.
[22:11] Again,
[22:12] I
[22:13] Again, if I
[22:14] Guys,
[22:18] if the United States has the strongest
[22:21] military in the world, why can't we
[22:24] do anything about
[22:27] the entire global supply chain being
[22:29] turned off? And mind you, it's not that
[22:31] no one's allowed through the Strait of
[22:33] Hormuz. Do you know who's still getting
[22:34] oil out of the Strait of Hormuz? China.
[22:37] In fact, Iran, they're they're just
[22:39] [ __ ] with us at this point. Over the
[22:41] weekend, they came out and said, "As
[22:43] long as you're not the United States and
[22:46] its allies, you can get oil."
[22:51] Cuz you you see some people say, "Well,
[22:53] no one's If the US isn't getting oil, no
[22:55] one's getting oil, and we're really
[22:56] starving China." No, but we're not
[22:58] starving China. China's still getting
[23:00] oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. We are
[23:02] not.
[23:04] And you're going to look me in the eye
[23:05] and say we have the strongest military
[23:06] in the in the US dollars backed by the
[23:07] military? Yeesh.
[23:14] So,
[23:15] I want to bring you guys this slide here
[23:18] is supposed to illustrate why when
[23:21] you're so indebted, the game changes.
[23:25] So,
[23:27] on the on the left here you see the 1973
[23:29] oil shock, okay? Now, let's look at how
[23:32] the US was positioned fiscally in 1973
[23:36] versus where we are today in 2026.
[23:38] Because people will say dumb [ __ ] like,
[23:41] well, when Clinton was president or
[23:43] well, in 1973 during that oil shock, but
[23:45] you know what? We didn't have $40
[23:47] trillion of debt.
[23:50] You [ __ ]
[23:52] Do you see why that would make it a huge
[23:54] difference?
[23:56] Where when Clinton was president, we ran
[23:59] a surplus.
[24:01] We run $2 trillion deficits annually
[24:04] now.
[24:06] Do you understand that the entire
[24:08] problem is monetary?
[24:11] Look at where Iran is hitting us.
[24:14] Monetarily.
[24:17] We can't afford it. We're too indebted.
[24:21] This fiat game is over. So, in 1973,
[24:25] what was our debt to GDP? 32%.
[24:31] Guys, our debt to GDP today is 122%.
[24:35] What was our deficit to GDP in 1973? 1%.
[24:40] Guys, today it is 6 to 7%.
[24:44] What was our net creditor to debtor?
[24:47] 10% in 1973.
[24:51] Today it's -85%.
[24:58] Do I make my case?
[25:01] Why is this different than the times in
[25:03] the past?
[25:06] Is that a joke?
[25:11] It's because fiat has reached its
[25:13] limits.
[25:18] And I put on the right just the only
[25:22] other time cuz the other thing people
[25:23] are saying is well in 2022
[25:27] a rise in oil didn't cause a recession.
[25:30] Yeah, but
[25:32] there were serious reasons why
[25:35] the labor market was super hot, record
[25:37] amounts of immigration which drives GDP.
[25:45] So I mean
[25:47] Okay, so in 2022 we had
[25:50] a massive reserve that is now depleted.
[25:52] Labor market was hot which by the way,
[25:55] why is the labor market not hot now? Cuz
[25:57] AI is taking everyone's jobs, right?
[26:00] So there wasn't AI competing for your
[26:02] job.
[26:04] We had a full reserve of petroleum.
[26:07] And Biden was letting anyone walk into
[26:10] the country across the border which
[26:11] again, I'm not political. I'm not saying
[26:14] that that's a good thing or a bad thing,
[26:15] but it has a direct impact on GDP, on
[26:18] the things that I do talk about on this
[26:20] show and that I do care about and that
[26:21] is related to Bitcoin.
[26:23] So that's why
[26:25] none of those things exist today.
[26:31] So Trump's behavior, like why is Bessent
[26:34] unsanctioning Russian oil? That has to
[26:36] be a joke. Russia and Putin are openly
[26:38] supporting Iran who were in a war with.
[26:44] It's because these guys don't have a
[26:45] choice. They're on the clock.
[26:48] And they know it.
[26:50] I'm telling you guys, this is
[26:53] uncle
[26:55] not taco. This is different. This one is
[26:58] different.
[26:59] I'm not I'm not I'm not saying the
[27:01] world's going to fall apart, okay? I'm
[27:04] just telling you guys this is not Trump.
[27:06] People typically say, "Oh, this is Trump
[27:08] being Trump. He's just trying to get his
[27:09] way." I don't know about this one. I
[27:11] genuinely don't know about this one.
[27:13] This one I I've been saying it for weeks
[27:16] now. Everyone says this war is going to
[27:18] be over in a day, and then 2 days, and
[27:20] then a week.
[27:22] Guys,
[27:23] I
[27:25] Um so,
[27:26] now back to markets.
[27:28] Um
[27:30] the title of this is credit is cracking.
[27:32] So, we all know private credit is in a
[27:34] world of pain. It continues to get
[27:37] worse.
[27:38] And interestingly,
[27:40] bond yields, which we've talked about,
[27:42] continue to go up.
[27:44] So, let me take a step back. What is
[27:46] bond math like we talked about on this
[27:48] show? When the demand for bonds goes
[27:50] down, the yields go up and vice versa.
[27:53] So, yields going up means demand is
[27:55] going down. Demand to lend to the United
[27:57] States is going down. Bonds have
[27:59] traditionally been a safe haven asset.
[28:02] When things are uncertain, you rush to
[28:05] safety. You rush into lending to the
[28:07] United States.
[28:08] That is no longer the case, which is
[28:10] extremely telling and validating for
[28:13] everything we've been talking about on
[28:14] this show.
[28:16] And so, Arthur's tweet on the left, oil
[28:18] and the 10-year Treasury are going or
[28:20] excuse me, the 10-year Treasury yield
[28:22] are going in the wrong direction.
[28:25] You've got oil going up and the yield on
[28:27] the 10-year going up. Guys, that's bad.
[28:31] That's really, really bad.
[28:35] And then on the right, you have from
[28:37] Zerohedge, this is a disaster. Cliff
[28:39] Waters $33 billion private credit fund
[28:42] Q1 redemptions reach 14%.
[28:48] Not good.
[28:51] It's not good. I mean, all of this And
[28:54] listen, actually, let me change my tone
[28:56] a little bit.
[28:58] It's not good for the legacy fiat
[29:00] system.
[29:02] As a Bitcoiner,
[29:04] it's emotionally complicated because on
[29:07] one end, these are all the things that
[29:10] we've been saying for years. All anyone
[29:13] had to do is listen to a lick of what
[29:16] I've been screaming for over a decade,
[29:19] and they wouldn't be surprised in the
[29:21] slightest about any of this.
[29:24] And so, on one end, I feel vindicated. I
[29:28] feel right.
[29:29] I feel all sorts of good emotions, and
[29:32] I'm extremely bullish on Bitcoin. I've
[29:35] been building a Bitcoin position for
[29:37] over a decade. I have two Bitcoin
[29:39] companies. I'm very excited about how
[29:42] I'm positioned in my ability to do good
[29:44] work for the world in the coming future.
[29:47] That's one side. On the other side,
[29:50] this is not This is scary. You know, you
[29:53] like people always accuse Bitcoiners
[29:55] Bitcoiners want the world to fall apart
[29:57] so that their number can go up.
[30:00] Unfortunately, everyone results to
[30:03] being,
[30:04] you know, the emotional maturity of a
[30:06] kindergartner.
[30:08] You know, it's not that black and white.
[30:09] Yes, I want to see Bitcoin as the
[30:12] ultimate money. I think fiat is going to
[30:14] fail. Do I want
[30:16] Americans to get punished in the
[30:17] process? Of course not. I want everyone
[30:20] to win. The reality is there's not
[30:22] enough room for everyone to win.
[30:24] Unfortunately, Bitcoin is a lifeboat,
[30:27] but it doesn't have unlimited seats.
[30:29] Well, let me rephrase that. It has
[30:30] unlimited seats,
[30:32] but not at the same price. The price to
[30:34] exit
[30:36] varies.
[30:40] The price to exit varies.
[30:43] That's why my suggestion is get yourself
[30:45] an exit ticket.
[30:48] Because the longer you wait, the more
[30:50] expensive it is to get out.
[30:53] So, it's emotionally complicated, man.
[30:55] It's like we're right. Every every chart
[30:58] I look at, every article I read, we are
[31:02] right. And now, sometimes Bitcoin is a
[31:05] leading indicator on us being right,
[31:07] it's a lagging indicator. It just needs
[31:08] time. I think Bitcoin's going to a
[31:10] million dollars a coin. It might take a
[31:12] few years or 5 years. I mean, this is
[31:15] nothing in the grand scheme of changing
[31:19] the money for the world.
[31:21] We're talking about fiat eroding, going
[31:25] back to hard money standards. I mean,
[31:28] when my great great great grandchildren
[31:30] are taught history, they're not going to
[31:31] say, "Yeah, and it took 4 years for
[31:34] Bitcoin to get to a million from here.
[31:36] And boy, was that a long time." They're
[31:37] not even going to cut This is a blip. A
[31:40] blip, a blink, a snap.
[31:45] Got to be patient.
[31:50] But yeah, man. I mean, it's emotionally
[31:51] complex. Like, on one end, I'm worried
[31:55] for
[31:57] Americans.
[31:59] In some sense, America.
[32:02] And again, I you know, sometimes people
[32:04] come to this show to get their like
[32:06] weekly dose of news, and I'm not trying
[32:08] to fear monger you and have you put in a
[32:10] panic,
[32:11] you know, like
[32:14] It's just
[32:16] I I wouldn't say I'm the most optimistic
[32:19] about America's future as I've ever
[32:22] been.
[32:23] I think we have very difficult lessons
[32:27] to learn. Let me go on one more rant
[32:29] real quick here.
[32:31] Because here's the thing.
[32:33] I think the social contract in America
[32:36] is drastically changing.
[32:39] Let me put Let me Let me play
[32:42] a version of our future, and it's just a
[32:44] version. It could happen, it could not,
[32:46] but it will it will help me convey my
[32:48] point.
[32:49] Let's say
[32:51] that the only reasonable outcome that we
[32:53] have from here is extreme levels of
[32:56] inflation. Because like I said, we
[32:58] either I've said this for the 2 years
[33:00] I've been doing this show,
[33:02] we either default
[33:04] or we
[33:06] default via inflation.
[33:09] Those are the two options, okay? So,
[33:11] let's assume, which seems like a fairly
[33:14] healthy assumption at this point, given
[33:16] gold's at $5,000 an ounce, oil's at $100
[33:19] a barrel.
[33:20] Let's just assume, it's not rocket
[33:22] science, let's assume serious
[33:24] inflation's on the horizon, okay?
[33:27] Now, let's also combine that with AI and
[33:30] a productivity boom that's displacing
[33:33] the entire labor market. Okay? So, your
[33:37] cushy white-collar job is no longer
[33:39] available.
[33:42] Okay, let's play out this future.
[33:44] I am a investment banker. I'm making
[33:48] $400,000 a year, not including my bonus,
[33:51] and I've got a mortgage on a beautiful
[33:52] home. I've got a car car note on a
[33:54] beautiful car.
[33:56] Uh my kid I I was able to put the down
[33:59] payment on for Harvard, but I let them,
[34:01] you know,
[34:02] they need to grow up and and be a man or
[34:04] be a woman, and they've got a little bit
[34:06] of student debt, and you know, so I live
[34:09] this indebted life.
[34:10] All of a sudden, I wake up and that job
[34:12] is gone.
[34:14] That job is gone.
[34:15] The social contract of I was a
[34:17] productive person to society has flipped
[34:19] entirely.
[34:22] You don't get to live in a big house.
[34:24] You don't get to drive a nice car. Your
[34:26] kid doesn't get to go to nice schools.
[34:29] You don't get good vacations. You don't
[34:31] get good food, cuz the combination of
[34:34] productivity displacing the social
[34:36] contract you thought you were in. You
[34:38] for for the last recent memory, you've
[34:40] considered yourself an elevated part of
[34:44] society. You get to eat nice steak
[34:46] dinners, you get to live in nice houses,
[34:48] cuz you're an investment banker.
[34:51] Cuz you did all the school,
[34:53] and you do all the Excel sheets on all
[34:54] the companies,
[34:56] and you deserve the best of this world.
[35:00] And in the snap of a finger,
[35:02] both via inflation that's monetizing the
[35:05] US's debt and deflation in the
[35:09] productivity
[35:10] that is displacing your job, you found
[35:12] yourself defaulting on your mortgage,
[35:14] defaulting on your car, not able to
[35:16] afford the steak
[35:19] because of inflation.
[35:20] That is
[35:22] the social contract like I am very
[35:25] worried
[35:26] about that. I think
[35:28] Americans and America have a lot of
[35:31] really difficult lessons
[35:33] to learn.
[35:35] Because the question you'd have to ask
[35:36] yourself was how productive was I
[35:38] actually?
[35:40] Was being a fancy-schmancy banker really
[35:43] that productive to the world?
[35:47] I don't know the answer to that.
[35:50] But if you have a country
[35:52] that's not doing any manual labor,
[35:54] that's not doing any blue-collar work,
[35:56] that's not producing real world
[35:58] commodities at least on net.
[36:02] They're consuming more than they're
[36:03] producing. What are they producing?
[36:06] They're producing Excel spreadsheets.
[36:09] Okay? Well, what if a machine can do
[36:11] that now? And what if the world around
[36:13] them gets hyper-inflated? The social
[36:16] contract changes. Everyone that thought
[36:17] they were important is no longer that
[36:19] important. What's going to happen? How
[36:21] are those people going to behave? How
[36:22] are they going to act? Are they going to
[36:23] be violent?
[36:25] Are they going to vote in someone that's
[36:27] going to try and take property of other
[36:29] people that are still productive?
[36:33] I'm worried.
[36:36] I'm worried about that. I I think that
[36:39] it's long overdue that America and
[36:41] Americans have tough lessons to learn.
[36:43] My advice remains the same. Do something
[36:46] of true value to people. Earn more than
[36:49] you consume.
[36:51] Save in a hard asset that no one can
[36:53] take from you.
[36:55] Remember,
[36:58] property rights are often rented by by
[37:00] the state or from the state.
[37:03] Your house can be taken by the state.
[37:05] Remember that. So, that's not real
[37:07] property rights. They That those rights
[37:09] were rented.
[37:12] So, my recommendation, own Bitcoin. It's
[37:15] the only real property that I can put in
[37:17] my brain that no one can take from me.
[37:21] And yeah, man. I mean, try and find a
[37:24] way to be productive
[37:27] that can't be disrupted. And listen, I'm
[37:30] not trying to overly [ __ ] on investment
[37:32] bankers or whatever, but
[37:35] if
[37:36] a computer
[37:38] can take your social contract of I'm
[37:41] rich and I'm wealthy and I get the hot
[37:43] wife and the big car the big house and
[37:46] the nice car and the beautiful steak
[37:48] dinners and I'm the best and everyone
[37:49] else in society is below me and one
[37:52] clawed code version wipes me out
[37:55] entirely, how productive were you
[37:57] actually? Was this whole fiat thing a a
[38:01] a fake, a phony, a fraud?
[38:06] So, America
[38:07] runs a $2 trillion deficit,
[38:11] does no blue-collar work, produces no
[38:13] real commodities on net, and instead,
[38:15] everyone's sitting on the coast
[38:18] building a bunch of shitty Excel sheets.
[38:23] Yeah, I just don't know how uh
[38:26] how that's going to play out. I just
[38:28] don't know. Um
[38:30] so more credit problems. Uh JP Morgan
[38:34] marking down their loan portfolios of
[38:36] private credit groups. Jamie Dimon has
[38:38] now made a public statement at this
[38:39] point about the private credit market.
[38:42] Um so the private credit market is a
[38:45] legitimate concern. It's starting to
[38:46] ripple through. And supply chains are
[38:49] breaking. So I had brought this up
[38:50] before, but Brazil agriculture markets
[38:52] have gone no bid for the first time in
[38:54] 20 years.
[38:56] Uh
[38:57] Middle East bookings are suspended by
[38:59] Maersk. I mean, it's just uh
[39:02] it's not good, guys. It's really not
[39:04] good. And I don't think people saw this
[39:06] coming. And I still don't know how many
[39:08] people, if this is a normalized and
[39:09] socialized
[39:11] realization yet, that like this war is
[39:14] not ending anytime soon unless the
[39:15] United States effectively screams uncle.
[39:18] That's the only way out that I can see.
[39:21] And so now let's bring in Bitcoin. So
[39:24] Michael Howell,
[39:26] he wrote this Substack recently that I
[39:27] thought was really good. And he
[39:29] basically gave this framing which was
[39:31] gold has already begun being repriced.
[39:34] And we've talked a lot about on the show
[39:35] how gold is a leading indicator. Gold
[39:37] has been leading. Why? Cuz gold is big
[39:39] enough to absorb sovereign bids, right?
[39:42] I've said before, Bitcoin's like the
[39:43] size of Tesla's market cap. It's just
[39:45] not big enough for China's trade surplus
[39:48] to pile into it, for people to rotate
[39:50] out of US Treasuries and into Bitcoin.
[39:54] It's not big just yet.
[39:56] Right? Like the whales in Bitcoin are
[39:58] reflective of how big it actually is.
[40:01] You know, the biggest whale in Bitcoin
[40:03] is strategy and Michael Saylor, but that
[40:05] company's like I think that company has
[40:07] a smaller market cap than Robinhood. So
[40:10] like as Bitcoin matures and grows, the
[40:12] whales will, too. Then sovereigns will
[40:14] start buying in real size. Endowments
[40:17] will start buying in real size, but
[40:18] right now it's just not quite big
[40:20] enough, and that's okay. That's okay.
[40:22] It's it's still a teenager.
[40:25] Keep in mind, Bitcoin would be in high
[40:26] school
[40:28] if it were a human, okay? So, it's still
[40:30] a teenager.
[40:32] It's going to take a little bit of time.
[40:33] That's fine. So, what what's the tool
[40:36] that the world is using to rotate out of
[40:39] the fiat world and into the hard money
[40:41] world? It's been gold. Now,
[40:44] Michael in his piece makes this point
[40:46] that oil was going to catch up one way
[40:48] or the other. Yes, this war has greatly
[40:50] exaggerated and and exacerbated that,
[40:53] but nonetheless,
[40:55] oil was going to ratchet up at some
[40:57] point because the world is actively
[40:59] being repriced against a debasing fiat
[41:03] world. Fiat and US Treasuries and just
[41:06] bonds and sovereign paper in general is
[41:08] becoming lesser and lesser and lesser
[41:09] valuable. The world is eroding in trust,
[41:13] and that's ultimately what fiat runs on,
[41:15] trust.
[41:17] Okay?
[41:17] And then the argument is that Bitcoin is
[41:19] likely next. Like
[41:22] he has this quote, "Monetary inflation
[41:24] is the only viable solution. We are
[41:26] simply debating the speed."
[41:29] And I loved that quote. That's why I put
[41:30] on the slide. Just love that quote.
[41:33] The
[41:34] unequivocal future is all the prices of
[41:37] things that are hard to produce is going
[41:39] to ratchet and reprice way higher.
[41:42] All that you guys are doing on the
[41:43] internet yelling at each other is
[41:45] debating the speed.
[41:48] You're just debating the speed.
[41:51] Who cares about the speed? Stay humble.
[41:53] Stack sats. If Bitcoin isn't hasn't
[41:55] repriced too much higher yet, then what
[41:56] an opportunity for you?
[42:00] You know, we can debate that Bitcoin is
[42:01] now, you know, we'll talk about it in a
[42:03] second. Bitcoin's been outperforming
[42:04] other things recently. It's been a great
[42:06] week for Bitcoin. It's shown a lot of
[42:07] resilience. I'm not entirely sold
[42:11] that Bitcoin is in a bull market again,
[42:13] that it's, you know,
[42:14] totally out I I I'm worried about the
[42:18] conflict in the Middle East. I don't see
[42:20] a clean resolution. I think markets are
[42:22] going to have to face the reality that
[42:24] this is going to be painful and there's
[42:26] no clean way out.
[42:28] So, I'm hesitant
[42:31] to assume Bitcoin's going straight to
[42:32] 250k from here, but nonetheless, I think
[42:36] Michael Howell's right. Monetary
[42:38] inflation is the only viable solution.
[42:40] We are simply debating the speed.
[42:44] So, we go to the uh chapter three, the
[42:46] puke before the print. Again, this is my
[42:48] opinion and I share this opinion with a
[42:50] lot of other smart people.
[42:52] Um but it doesn't mean it's right, but I
[42:54] do think that there might be one last
[42:56] puke. Um so, to set the stage,
[42:59] this tweet from Arthur, Bitcoin, which
[43:01] is in white, is up 7% and has
[43:03] outperformed gold down 2% and the Nasdaq
[43:06] down 50 basis points since the US-Iran
[43:09] war started on February 28th.
[43:11] Relative to similar type large risky
[43:13] assets, Bitcoin did the best when viewed
[43:15] against oil and gas energy price spikes.
[43:18] So, it is interesting and Luke, who has,
[43:21] you know, very famously
[43:23] uh lessened his Bitcoin position in the
[43:25] 90k's,
[43:27] he has not added Bitcoin back, but he
[43:29] said my finger is hovering over the buy
[43:32] trigger. Um so, the question is, what
[43:34] does this mean for Bitcoin? Um is
[43:37] Bitcoin back in a bull market? It's been
[43:38] eight straight days of green. Are we
[43:40] going to new highs? What's your opinion,
[43:43] Jack?
[43:45] I don't I don't know about that. Um
[43:50] my opinion is there's likely one more
[43:53] puke left. I think that the stock market
[43:56] is in trouble.
[43:58] Uh I think that
[44:01] the bond market is in trouble.
[44:04] I think that there is one more big wash
[44:07] through of pain. I I'm I'm just
[44:09] hesitant. I'm not I'm not bullish or
[44:11] bearish. I'm in the near term. In long
[44:13] term, I'm I've never been more bullish.
[44:14] This is crazy. What a crazy timeline to
[44:17] live through. In the immediate term,
[44:20] I'm watching.
[44:22] It doesn't really matter what I think
[44:23] cuz I'm fully allocated to Bitcoin
[44:25] anyway, as you guys know. So, I'm only
[44:26] saying this just for the for the love of
[44:28] the game, for the shits and the giggles.
[44:30] Like I get I
[44:33] I don't I don't live like a trader. So,
[44:35] it doesn't matter.
[44:36] Um but anyway, you just do the math and
[44:39] the debt held, by the way, is not 36
[44:41] trillion. I think it's actually
[44:42] 38.something
[44:44] at this point. But this is just crazy
[44:47] math. We hold so much debt. Our blended
[44:49] interest rate on that debt is above 3%.
[44:52] Our annual interest annual interest is
[44:54] over a trillion dollars annualized at
[44:55] this point. And on the left,
[44:59] this is more of the timeline that I'm
[45:00] expecting and watching. We've talked
[45:02] about it before.
[45:04] QT ended by the Fed in December and they
[45:07] started this reserve management program
[45:09] where on an annual basis they would buy
[45:11] about 500 billion dollars in Treasuries
[45:14] through this reserve management program
[45:16] that they set up.
[45:17] I've said it a lot. Next, I expect some
[45:19] form of yield curve control. I really
[45:21] think that that's the only viable
[45:23] option. That will cause tremendous
[45:26] amounts of inflation, but it's the only
[45:27] way for the US to be able to afford the
[45:29] the fiscal position it's in. And then
[45:31] after that, I expect some full form of
[45:33] QE. So, I'm I'm watching right now very
[45:37] carefully
[45:38] because I'm waiting for, you know, what
[45:40] always happens is something blows up in
[45:42] a big way. Like US equities or go down
[45:45] 20%. The bond market move index goes to
[45:48] 180. Something extreme. Something that
[45:51] crosses the line. And that gets
[45:53] politicians to react and portray
[45:56] themselves as heroes. That's when you
[45:58] get Trump that comes out and says, "I've
[46:00] ignited the ABCDEFG program
[46:03] to save your save your income from AI
[46:06] disruption and protect us from Iran and
[46:11] their nuclear program. And it's like,
[46:13] okay, there comes here comes all the
[46:14] money printing. We haven't gotten it
[46:17] quite yet. We just haven't gotten it
[46:18] quite yet. Now, at the same time,
[46:21] Bitcoin feels like it's been exhausted
[46:24] of sellers. It looks like something that
[46:26] has no seller left. Like that's what it
[46:28] looks like, which is so cool cuz again,
[46:30] it's just with a finite supply asset and
[46:33] it's we've never seen anything like it.
[46:36] Um but anyway, this is what I'm looking
[46:38] for. Um
[46:40] these are just a lot of the people that
[46:41] I follow. So, Luke, Michael, Arthur,
[46:44] everyone's got the same language. Morgan
[46:47] Stanley now has a Bitcoin trust. This is
[46:49] structural. That's a big deal. I mean,
[46:51] when you start getting passive flows,
[46:53] structural flows into Bitcoin,
[46:56] it's really rare, guys, because Bitcoin
[46:58] is finite in supply. There's just only
[47:00] so many natural sellers. And so, when
[47:03] you get structural flows like 15,000
[47:06] wealth advisors that are selling Bitcoin
[47:08] through Morgan Stanley, then you just
[47:10] outbid the natural sellers every day.
[47:13] The world has never ever seen something
[47:16] finitely scarce. We get we get flak for
[47:19] comparing Bitcoin to gold, but mind you,
[47:21] Bitcoin's orders of magnitude better
[47:23] than gold because gold's not finitely
[47:26] scarce. If gold keeps going up, we will
[47:28] produce more gold.
[47:31] The only reason we're not producing more
[47:33] gold is cuz it's uneconomical, but if
[47:34] the price of gold gets high enough, it
[47:36] becomes economical. That's not the case
[47:38] for Bitcoin. We've never seen anything
[47:39] like it.
[47:42] So, everybody seems to be warming up to
[47:44] the idea, but again, we haven't seen the
[47:47] bazooka print yet. Now, do we need to
[47:50] see the bazooka print? Is Bitcoin
[47:51] actually a leading indicator this time?
[47:53] Has it already Like let me let me say it
[47:56] this way.
[47:57] Bitcoin somehow leads always. It's such
[48:00] a mind [ __ ] for me.
[48:03] Here, let me explain.
[48:07] FTX blew up before Silicon Valley Bank.
[48:11] I remember when FTX blew up and I told
[48:13] people internally at the Strike Team,
[48:15] "Bitcoin the this open free market is
[48:18] just so much more efficient. Free
[48:20] markets are so much more efficient at
[48:22] punishing misallocations of capital and
[48:24] rewarding proper allocations of capital.
[48:28] That a legacy financial institution will
[48:31] blow up shortly after this. It's just
[48:33] going to take time because it's in a
[48:34] centrally planned and controlled market.
[48:36] They're so much less efficient than if
[48:38] you just let the free market govern."
[48:41] So, FTX blew up in November and Silicon
[48:43] Valley Bank, I believe, blew up in
[48:45] March.
[48:46] Right? And that was just it was so
[48:48] fascinating to me where I was just
[48:50] relying on a truly free market to tell
[48:53] me the truths that the rest of the world
[48:56] took 5-6 months later to tell me.
[48:58] You know?
[49:00] And Bitcoin bottomed
[49:02] before everything else as well. So, I
[49:04] guess my point is Bitcoin broke below
[49:08] its support and entered this bear market
[49:10] we're in now before equities did.
[49:12] Equities are just now getting there.
[49:15] So, the question is is Bitcoin going to
[49:17] lead equities back to the upside? Are
[49:19] equities about to crash while Bitcoin is
[49:21] finding strength? I don't know.
[49:24] I really don't. I'm being just honest
[49:25] with you. You know, in hindsight, that
[49:27] would make a lot of sense. Bitcoin's a
[49:29] sufficient free market. It's smelling
[49:30] the money printers warming up. Yada yada
[49:32] yada yada yada.
[49:35] It's it's acting as, you know, I know a
[49:37] lot of people think that it's been this
[49:38] resilient because capital in the Middle
[49:40] East is It's really hard
[49:43] I mean, what I'm hearing is that gold is
[49:45] trading at a discount in the Middle East
[49:48] because capital flight is hard with
[49:50] physical gold. How do you get it across
[49:52] borders? How do you travel with it? How
[49:53] do you get it in large size? Where gold
[49:56] is trading at a discount, like people
[49:57] are like, "Fuck it, just take the gold I
[49:58] have." And Bitcoin's trading at a
[50:00] premium cuz it's so easy to just put it
[50:03] on a hardware wallet and get the [ __ ]
[50:04] out of there.
[50:07] So, maybe there's capital flight
[50:09] implications for Bitcoin.
[50:11] I don't know.
[50:15] Um I I see in the chat people saying
[50:18] Jack's being harsh to US farmers,
[50:20] they're the most productive. I'm not
[50:21] talking about far like people
[50:23] specifically. I'm not saying like
[50:25] I'm not implying that your buddy Joseph
[50:27] is not productive. Come on. Let's get a
[50:29] grip here. I'm saying the US on net
[50:31] is minus $2 trillion
[50:34] in consumption overproduction.
[50:37] That's not good.
[50:39] Um so, this is the sequence I expect. I
[50:41] expect some form of a puke, credit
[50:43] markets break, some form of force
[50:45] selling, some form of pain.
[50:49] And may maybe it's the bond market gets
[50:51] too volatile. We know that the the move
[50:54] index, the bond volatility index, as
[50:56] soon as it crosses numbers like 160, the
[50:59] Washington and Bassington Trump hit the
[51:01] panic button. We know that when equities
[51:04] fall a certain mark, like during
[51:06] liberation day or liberation week, they
[51:08] hit the panic button. I expect something
[51:10] like that where the Fed or the Treasury
[51:14] or someone has to step in and
[51:16] effectively enforce monetary inflation
[51:19] as the only solution. And then it's then
[51:22] it's back up the truck. Everyone's going
[51:24] to pile in to the scarcest risk-on thing
[51:27] they can find and that's where Bitcoin
[51:30] mops the floor. Now, again, have we
[51:33] already started that? Has Bitcoin kicked
[51:35] this off already?
[51:37] I have no idea. And it doesn't matter
[51:39] cuz again, I don't hold any fiat anyway.
[51:41] I'm just doing it for shits and giggles.
[51:43] Uh I don't [ __ ] know.
[51:45] Um so, in summary,
[51:48] uh, do your own research on this
[51:50] conflict we have in the Middle East. Be
[51:52] careful.
[51:53] Um, earn more than you spend. Find ways
[51:56] to be truly productive. Truly
[51:59] productive. And find property that
[52:01] you're not renting the rights from the
[52:03] state.
[52:04] That's my advice. I have a feeling we'll
[52:07] be talking about this conflict for many
[52:09] shows to come in the future
[52:11] because it's hard for me to see how it
[52:13] ends unless the ending is fairly abrupt
[52:16] and it's more like Trump screaming uncle
[52:19] than taco.
[52:26] Um,
[52:28] okay. With that,
[52:30] uh, everyone's favorite section, what
[52:32] really grinds my gears.
[52:35] Um,
[52:36] you know what really grinds my gears?
[52:38] Las Vegas.
[52:40] That's where I am.
[52:42] Holy [ __ ] is this place awful.
[52:46] This place, this is the most pathetic
[52:51] expression of humanity I've ever seen.
[52:55] I can't imagine
[52:58] visiting America from another country,
[53:01] landing in this piece of [ __ ] and think
[53:04] I mean, if I were a foreigner and I were
[53:06] visiting from some other country and I
[53:08] landed in Vegas and spent 10 seconds on
[53:11] the strip, I would say, "Holy [ __ ] blow
[53:14] it all up." I mean, what the [ __ ]
[53:18] This place is [ __ ] horrible.
[53:24] I mean, I'm going to get fired up here
[53:25] because here's the thing.
[53:27] Uh,
[53:28] my girlfriend and I were supposed to
[53:29] come here for a family trip to see some
[53:32] musician that was performing here. I
[53:34] don't know. I'm not into any of that
[53:36] [ __ ] But, you know how it is.
[53:38] Girlfriend, family, you got to do what
[53:41] you got to do, okay? So,
[53:43] I say let's do it. It's going to be a
[53:44] ton of fun. I I actually I I love her
[53:47] family. They're the best. And so, like
[53:49] let's go. Let's go. Now, long story
[53:52] short,
[53:53] the the trip totally changes.
[53:56] People got to back out. My girlfriend's
[53:58] like, "Hey, you know, it's around my
[54:00] birthday anyway. Why don't we just make
[54:02] a trip out of it and have some fun?"
[54:04] So, we say screw it. Chicago, it's cold,
[54:07] it's rainy, it's snowing, it's gross. We
[54:10] look at our phone, it's 80°. We go to
[54:12] Vegas.
[54:13] Holy [ __ ]
[54:15] This place is cancer. And by the way, if
[54:19] you want to see what fiat has done to
[54:22] society and the true state of what's
[54:26] wrong with the West, come see this [ __ ]
[54:29] for yourself. Everybody is grotesquely
[54:33] obese. And And listen, I'm I'm not
[54:37] I'm not going to pick too hard on
[54:39] people's weight, okay? No one wants to
[54:42] be fat, okay? No one wakes up and is
[54:45] like, "Man, I wish I was fatter." So,
[54:47] I'm not going to be too hard on people's
[54:50] weight. But,
[54:52] the obesity in Vegas, it's like a
[54:55] particular level of obesity. Like people
[54:58] are grotesquely obese in areas of the
[55:01] human body that I couldn't even imagine
[55:04] by closing my eyes. Like I'd never seen
[55:08] a human species shaped the way people
[55:10] are shaped, and they're lugging around
[55:13] pounds of sugar.
[55:15] It's donuts, it's cinnamon toasted
[55:18] cocktails. It is [ __ ] disgusting.
[55:21] You've got these people that can't even
[55:22] walk down the strip, so they're
[55:23] literally in machines that wheel them
[55:26] from casino to casino to gamble and play
[55:30] these slot machines. I mean, this is
[55:32] pure human degeneracy. This is grotesque
[55:36] obesity, gambling, drugs, alcohol. This
[55:41] place is [ __ ] gross. The fact that
[55:45] there is enough capital to be
[55:47] misallocated for this to be a mainstay
[55:50] of where people go and expend their time
[55:52] and energy, I mean, blow it all up.
[55:55] Whatever system has allowed for this
[55:57] place to exist, blow it the [ __ ] up.
[56:00] After being here for 3 days, I've had
[56:03] enough. I've had enough of fiat and
[56:05] enough of the West. I don't even know if
[56:07] I want to fight for it anymore. Blow it
[56:09] the [ __ ] up. This is an abomination to
[56:12] humanity. This should never exist. This
[56:14] is absolutely disgusting. I hope my kids
[56:17] and their kids and their kids never even
[56:19] knew that this was a place I visited and
[56:22] could have visited. This is an absolute
[56:24] embarrassment to my generation. This
[56:27] place is filthy. I feel disgusting.
[56:30] There's not enough time in a day for me
[56:32] to shower off how I feel. I feel gross.
[56:35] I feel absolutely disgusting. I had to
[56:37] go find lunch today.
[56:41] I couldn't find I just want some grilled
[56:44] chicken and I want [clears throat] a
[56:45] place that's clean. It's impossible.
[56:49] It's littered with prostitution
[56:51] [ __ ] advertisements. I can't find
[56:54] something that doesn't have a seed oil
[56:56] or fried breading or alcohol in it. I
[56:59] just want grilled chicken and water in a
[57:04] clean establishment that takes
[57:06] themselves and their customers
[57:07] seriously. This place is absolutely
[57:11] filthy and you can't help as a
[57:13] Bitcoiner, you can't help but look
[57:15] around and think this is the result of
[57:17] fiat. In a truly free market, anyone
[57:20] that spends their days getting
[57:22] grotesquely obese and poisoning
[57:26] themselves with metabolic disease and
[57:28] gambling their life away, I mean, surely
[57:30] this can't last forever. But, if you
[57:32] just bail everybody out and you keep
[57:34] government funding everything, this is
[57:36] what you get. You get this place is a
[57:40] walking living disease. It is absolutely
[57:43] disgusting. I've never seen anything
[57:45] more fiat than this place. My girlfriend
[57:48] and I said, "I'll never come back here."
[57:50] Except obviously the Bitcoin conference.
[57:52] I don't have a choice. I said, "Holy
[57:54] [ __ ] Vegas twice in 1 month.
[57:58] I might die."
[58:00] I might This place is Guys, this grind
[58:04] my gears section could go for an hour.
[58:07] Because here's the other thing. I was
[58:09] supposed to go home on Sunday. I said,
[58:11] "Good lord." And And by the way, just a
[58:14] little bit about me. I'm not the biggest
[58:15] consumer of alcohol. It's not my thing.
[58:18] I don't want to gamble. I want to buy
[58:19] Bitcoin. I don't I like that's not my
[58:22] form of entertainment. It was nice to
[58:24] lay in the sun, but like I said, there
[58:26] is no Like if there was a Vegas hotel
[58:28] that served ribeye and was clean, it's
[58:32] just it's impossible. You're just
[58:34] rubbing shoulders constantly with the
[58:37] most like disgusting version of
[58:40] humanity. It's gross. It just feels
[58:42] gross and it smells gross. It's like
[58:44] someone shoved like a Bud Light, a
[58:46] cigarette butt, and a prostitute up your
[58:48] nostril. It's disgusting. Everything
[58:50] about it is disgusting. You can't escape
[58:52] it. It was nice to be in the sun, but
[58:54] good lord. And it's crazy because people
[58:57] come to the United States say, "Oh,
[58:58] let's go to Vegas." And this is what
[59:00] they see. And it's like honestly And
[59:03] everyone's I was talking to this guy
[59:05] sitting in the lobby. I'm like,
[59:07] "Where are you from, man?"
[59:09] Like, "What's your opinion on America?"
[59:11] He's like, "This place is not I mean,
[59:13] what are you This place is nuts. It's
[59:16] disgusting. It's so gross." I was
[59:19] supposed to come home on Sunday.
[59:21] And because of the weather in Chicago,
[59:23] my flight was canceled. Not even
[59:25] delayed, canceled. Like United said
[59:27] like, I we're not getting you home. So,
[59:29] here I am stuck in this hellhole. I
[59:32] can't get out. This is I literally think
[59:36] I'm dreaming. This is torture. I'm stuck
[59:39] in the capital of fiat. This is fiat
[59:41] headquarters.
[59:43] They just serve you sugar and seed oils
[59:47] and donuts and gambling and
[59:50] prostitution. It is
[59:52] disgusting. I'm just holed up in my
[59:54] hotel room.
[59:57] Oh my god.
[60:00] Oh my god, man. I seriously, I mean dead
[60:03] serious. Nobody I I've never met anybody
[60:07] that looks at Las Vegas and goes, "That
[60:09] is a good that that's a good
[60:12] representation
[60:13] of everything that's right with the
[60:15] world."
[60:17] Someone that was born this morning
[60:19] should really take a look at Las Vegas
[60:22] to understand what humanity and our
[60:24] future is all about.
[60:26] I've never heard anyone say that. I
[60:29] mean, this place, man.
[60:32] This place.
[60:37] I mean, I literally I look looked at my
[60:39] girlfriend. We looked at each other
[60:40] like,
[60:42] "Never again."
[60:44] Never again.
[60:47] And I can't get out of here.
[60:49] I might I I I I kid you not, if the
[60:52] weather in Chicago doesn't start getting
[60:53] better, I might just start walking home.
[60:57] I might just start walking.
[60:59] I As I think about it, there's not a
[61:02] large body of water between me and
[61:03] Chicago.
[61:05] Just might be time to get some steps in.
[61:08] Walk off
[61:09] all of the sugar I must have eaten just
[61:13] by being within the vicinity of this
[61:14] abomination.
[61:18] I mean, it is crazy. And and this place
[61:20] it just prays on
[61:24] what's wrong with people.
[61:26] I mean, you've got these grown adults
[61:28] sitting at these slot machines.
[61:31] It is so sad.
[61:34] You just want to go up to these people
[61:35] and shake them. Just take the money and
[61:37] buy some Bitcoin. Go.
[61:39] Good lord. They just These old people
[61:42] just slamming these big shiny buttons
[61:45] all day.
[61:47] I wake up to go get a coffee this
[61:48] morning. These old people with alcohol
[61:52] and gambling addictions. Like, yeah,
[61:54] welcome to America. And and obese in
[61:58] areas that I didn't think fat could
[62:00] accrue in a human. It's just like like
[62:04] the size of people's ankles.
[62:07] Like, is that
[62:08] Is that your ankle?
[62:11] It's bizarre.
[62:13] It's so sad, bizarre.
[62:16] Um this place
[62:19] this place
[62:22] Anyway,
[62:24] it felt it felt vaguely related to
[62:28] Bitcoin in this show. It might not be.
[62:30] Maybe this is just a random tangent.
[62:33] But, I mean, holy [ __ ] Fix the money,
[62:35] fix the world. This place is [ __ ]
[62:38] disgusting.
[62:40] Sorry. Each their own.
[62:43] Who am I to tell you how to live?
[62:45] If you want to come out 300 lb, lose all
[62:47] your money
[62:48] and
[62:50] become an alcoholic, by all means, but
[62:54] not me. Not for me.
[62:56] Not for me.
[62:58] Um all right. With that,
[63:01] let me
[63:02] I [laughter] think
[63:03] this section of the show, man, it's
[63:04] taking on a life of its own.
[63:07] >> [snorts]
[63:07] >> I enjoy it. I'm glad you guys enjoy it
[63:09] cuz I really enjoy it.
[63:11] Um here's the sources, by the way. I
[63:14] added a separate section uh with all the
[63:16] sources of uh
[63:18] the stuff. I'm just I'm still iterating.
[63:19] I'm still trying to get you guys
[63:20] feedback, iterating on uh
[63:22] how to
[63:24] I don't know. Do the best for you guys
[63:27] that want to learn and are supportive of
[63:28] me. I really appreciate it. So,
[63:31] let me know if this is better.
[63:33] Um
[63:34] and then
[63:36] uh Strike.
[63:37] So, let me pull up uh we actually
[63:39] tweeted out Let's see. Let's go to
[63:42] Twitter.
[63:44] Let's go to Strike.
[63:49] >> [snorts]
[63:49] >> So, we actually tweeted out
[63:52] a thread of everything we launched last
[63:54] week. I think we'll do this consistently
[63:57] cuz we launched so much stuff on a
[63:59] weekly basis. It's hard to keep up with.
[64:01] So, you guys should check out this
[64:03] thread. Um
[64:05] I'll actually I'll retweet it right now.
[64:08] Um
[64:09] So, what did we do over the last week?
[64:12] Uh
[64:13] we expanded our line of credit to pretty
[64:16] much the entire United States. So, I had
[64:18] talked to you guys. I said the the line
[64:20] of credit product was only in Georgia
[64:22] and Massachusetts. We just wanted to
[64:23] test a few things. So, we've turned it
[64:25] on in the entire United States just for
[64:28] businesses.
[64:29] So, just for businesses, we've seen a
[64:31] ton of businesses open lines of credit.
[64:33] It's really really cool. It's really
[64:35] really exciting. Um so, if you are a
[64:38] business, it's in 43 states. It will be
[64:42] in 50, I think, very very soon. I'll
[64:44] check with the team. But, like I said,
[64:47] we're going to continue to roll out line
[64:48] of credit as we feel ready. It's not
[64:51] something though that we're going to
[64:51] gatekeep for a very long time. Um we're
[64:54] just truly testing, iterating. I want
[64:56] the product to be really high
[64:58] functioning and as close to perfect as
[64:59] we can possibly make it. But, this is
[65:02] huge. If you run a business now,
[65:04] uh you can get a Strike account. You can
[65:07] do all of your fiat things there. You
[65:09] can do all of your Bitcoin things there.
[65:10] You can get a line of credit. Run your
[65:12] business on instead of a HELOC, we call
[65:14] it a BLOCK, a Bitcoin line of credit. Uh
[65:17] really, really cool. Really, really
[65:18] exciting. We also lowered our term loan
[65:20] minimums in the EU and UK for
[65:23] businesses, it's at 5K 5,000 euros.
[65:26] So,
[65:27] really cool. This minimum used to be
[65:30] 100,000 euros. It's now 5,000 euros.
[65:33] We've brought it down consistently since
[65:35] we launched lending in Europe and UK
[65:38] regions.
[65:39] So, again, really exciting, really proud
[65:42] of the team. We just keep shipping
[65:43] stuff.
[65:45] Next, we lowered some of our pricing.
[65:48] So, this is specifically some whale
[65:50] tiers. So, people sometimes assume that
[65:52] Strike is for small purchases or just
[65:55] for payments and obviously they must not
[65:57] be familiar with the recent developments
[66:00] over the years of the company. We're for
[66:02] every aspect of Bitcoin. There's not a
[66:04] pocket of Bitcoin that we don't serve
[66:06] well or we're not the best in the world
[66:08] at. So, this is for some whales. So, if
[66:10] you are doing a 5 to 15 million-dollar
[66:12] transaction, you used to pay 0.49%.
[66:16] We've now lowered that to 0.39%
[66:19] and if you do over 15 million dollar,
[66:21] and this is in a month,
[66:23] you used to be 0.39% and now you're
[66:25] 0.25%. And I know people are going to
[66:26] say, "Whoa, what the hell? Who do you
[66:27] think I am?" We have a lot of customers
[66:29] like this. I mean, people trust us to do
[66:32] Bitcoin well and we got some I mean,
[66:36] customers are always looking for
[66:37] opportunities for us to bring our
[66:39] pricing down. I met with the finance
[66:41] team and I said, "Given the growth of
[66:43] the amount of customers we have in this
[66:45] pocket of our company, um I'd be
[66:47] comfortable in lowering pricing." So, we
[66:50] did that. Uh so, if you are a business,
[66:53] a high net worth individual, we're
[66:55] continuing to bring our pricing down and
[66:57] all of this is based on the feedback, by
[66:58] the way, from customers, from you guys
[67:00] uh in the YouTube chat. So, keep keep uh
[67:03] giving us feedback. And then,
[67:06] lastly, we've greatly improved our
[67:08] onboarding experience. We've seen a ton
[67:10] of new registrations. We're seeing an
[67:12] uptick in people coming to Bitcoin,
[67:14] which is exciting. And so, we're always
[67:17] optimizing. I mean, that
[67:19] interaction is deeply important to us as
[67:21] a company, right? Obviously, someone's
[67:23] first impression with Bitcoin or with
[67:25] Strike is important. And so, we're
[67:27] always iterating. We are always wanting
[67:28] to make it better. So, we came out with
[67:30] a brand new onboarding experience that
[67:32] we think is
[67:34] had until it was better than what we had
[67:36] before, which is cool.
[67:37] And uh
[67:38] I told the team we should do this every
[67:40] Monday. Which is just a little recap or
[67:42] round up of everything that we launched
[67:44] the week before. So, you can expect this
[67:46] from us on a go-forward basis. And uh
[67:49] let us know what we should build and uh
[67:52] what you think we're building.
[67:54] So, that's what we did uh with Strike.
[68:00] Uh let me go back.
[68:03] Oops.
[68:06] For 21, uh message remains the same.
[68:10] Uh
[68:11] proof of work mode.
[68:13] I know everyone's like, "Well, I don't
[68:14] see the proof of work." I get it, you
[68:16] don't. Uh you're not wrong.
[68:18] We're excited to share it soon,
[68:20] hopefully. But, uh public market rules
[68:22] are public market rules. It is what it
[68:24] is. Only so much I can say. Um but, we
[68:26] are
[68:27] I would say
[68:30] the message that I want to proliferate
[68:33] and I want to be repeated is that we
[68:37] fundamentally believe in being a Bitcoin
[68:40] company that both produces operational
[68:42] cash flow and profits and products that
[68:44] has customers and upside and being a
[68:48] treasury. We think that it's going to be
[68:49] increasingly difficult for companies to
[68:51] do both.
[68:53] And we think we're uniquely positioned
[68:55] to be both. To be a company that has
[68:57] customers and products and growth and
[68:59] profits. And we can use that to finance
[69:03] our conviction in Bitcoin. So, we will
[69:05] still, of course, be have a Bitcoin
[69:07] treasury and accumulate Bitcoin, whether
[69:08] it's through leverage. Like, what if we
[69:10] went out and got a bunch of leverage, um
[69:12] but we financed it via profits from our
[69:14] company as opposed to dilution.
[69:18] And so, it's not to say that one way is
[69:20] right or the other. People are always
[69:22] like, "You're so mean to Saylor."
[69:24] And I'm [laughter] not I'm not saying
[69:25] Saylor's
[69:27] uh way of doing things is necessarily
[69:28] wrong. It's just not our preferred way
[69:30] of doing things. I believe in companies
[69:33] being productive via cash flow, being
[69:35] profits, via customers, via products.
[69:38] That's the company that I want to build.
[69:39] That's the company that Tether wants to
[69:41] build. And that's the company that we
[69:43] are building. And that's uh
[69:47] That's my update. And when I'm allowed
[69:49] to share more with you guys, I will.
[69:52] Um as I as I've said, it's a sooner
[69:55] rather than later thing.
[69:57] Um
[69:58] but that uh according to my lawyers is
[70:00] all that I'm allowed to say for now.
[70:03] And with uh
[70:06] that, let's get into some Q&A.
[70:09] Well, 13 minutes past the hour mark, so
[70:12] not too bad. We got a little bit of Q&A
[70:14] time.
[70:16] And uh
[70:18] and we'll take advantage of it. Let's
[70:20] see here. Let me blow up my
[70:24] camera. Look at this guy.
[70:28] Look at this guy. Get a load of this
[70:30] guy. Oh, I forgot. I need to update you
[70:33] guys.
[70:35] Uh tomorrow,
[70:36] the plan is I'm supposed to be in New
[70:37] York. Now, is my flight going to get me
[70:40] there?
[70:41] I think so. It should. If it doesn't,
[70:43] obviously, I'll let you guys know. But,
[70:45] tomorrow, New York, PubKey. We got our
[70:48] bit license. We're throwing a party.
[70:50] The word on the street in New York is
[70:52] that PubKey can only hold like 120
[70:55] people or something like that, and that
[70:57] we're going to cause a block party in
[70:59] New York because
[71:01] there's going to be more people showing
[71:02] up than PubKey can fit and no one knows
[71:05] what to do about it. Everyone's like,
[71:07] "Should we have tickets?"
[71:09] Listen. Don't tell them I told you this,
[71:11] but [ __ ] it. Just show up. We'll figure
[71:14] it out.
[71:15] Dylan was like, "Dude,
[71:18] don't tell people to just show up. We
[71:19] don't know how to accommodate it. We
[71:21] don't know how we're going to make it
[71:22] work."
[71:24] And I said, "Listen, man. I don't give a
[71:26] [ __ ]
[71:27] I'm not I'm not telling Bitcoiners not
[71:29] to show up. We've been working on this
[71:30] license for over 3 years. If I have to
[71:32] have a beer with a Bitcoiner on the
[71:34] street, I'm going to have a beer with a
[71:35] Bitcoiner on the street.
[71:37] I'm not a bougie guy. This is We're This
[71:39] is not a gala. This is not a [ __ ]
[71:41] prom.
[71:42] We're We're talking about having a
[71:44] Guinness with a Bitcoiner to celebrate
[71:47] the fact that we can serve them in New
[71:48] York and all their support over the
[71:50] years and that we're working towards a
[71:52] Bitcoin standard and we're going to fix
[71:54] the money and fix the world. So, if I
[71:56] got to have a beer with you guys on the
[71:57] street, we're going to have one on the
[71:58] street. Just show up. Obviously, I would
[72:01] recommend, if you can, the sooner the
[72:03] better. I don't know how the capacity
[72:05] thing is going to work. I don't know how
[72:06] it's all going to shake out, but I'm
[72:08] going to be there, Dylan's going to be
[72:09] there, a lot of the Strike team's going
[72:11] to be there.
[72:12] Uh the drinks are on us. So,
[72:15] we just I mean, listen, guys. At the end
[72:17] of the day, um I'm just a dude
[72:20] that really appreciates your support.
[72:24] And so,
[72:25] least I can do is get you a beer and
[72:28] give you guys a hug. I think we'll have
[72:29] some live Q&A um or something live. I'll
[72:32] be doing something live. I actually
[72:34] don't even know what I'm doing.
[72:35] Um but my flight is tomorrow morning at
[72:37] 6:30 a.m. If I
[72:40] if I have issues getting out, I'll let
[72:42] you guys know, but it should be fine.
[72:44] And uh I'll see you there. Just show up.
[72:48] I don't know.
[72:49] It'll work out. It always does.
[72:51] Uh and with that, let's do
[72:54] some Q&A.
[73:05] Oh, man. [ __ ] hate this place, Las
[73:08] Vegas.
[73:13] Uh,
[73:15] hold on. Sorry.
[73:17] Without being on my monitors, it is
[73:20] difficult to do this.
[73:24] Okay, there we go.
[73:27] Uh,
[73:28] Jack, question. Why is Bitcoin reacting
[73:30] to high oil prices the way it is?
[73:32] Um,
[73:35] I I mean, the true answer is I don't
[73:37] know.
[73:38] You know, sometimes people are like,
[73:40] "Dude, you got this wrong. What the
[73:41] fuck?" Well, like,
[73:44] I don't know.
[73:47] Like,
[73:49] turn your brain on. Why would I know the
[73:51] future? Okay? I just need a disclaimer.
[73:53] I don't know the future. I'm not a
[73:55] professional trader. I'm a CEO and a
[73:57] founder. I don't [ __ ] know the
[73:59] future. Sorry. I'm sure the guy that
[74:01] asked this question is
[74:03] was uh,
[74:05] was a very is a very nice guy. Um, this
[74:07] is just all the other people they're
[74:08] like, "Jack once said Bitcoin was going
[74:10] to go up and it didn't." Yo, shut the
[74:11] [ __ ] up. How about that? Duh. Like, I
[74:14] don't know the future. Do I need to say
[74:16] that disclaimer before I make
[74:17] predictions? Guess what, guys? I'm not a
[74:19] genie in a bottle. Do I look like
[74:21] [ __ ] blue-skinned genie?
[74:23] Okay?
[74:24] Anyways,
[74:26] uh, why is Bitcoin reacting to oil
[74:28] prices rising this way? I don't know.
[74:30] The I mean, my logical guess,
[74:33] which could have some merit, but again,
[74:35] could not,
[74:36] uh,
[74:39] capital flight out of the Middle East.
[74:41] I mean, how do you get money out of the
[74:45] Middle East right now?
[74:47] And if the answer's gold, really?
[74:51] How are you lugging Oh, how are you
[74:54] lugging gold
[74:56] out of the Middle East right now?
[74:59] Do you have a plane? You have a truck?
[75:02] How are you even like let's say on a
[75:04] Sunday night you need to buy a lot of
[75:06] gold. How are you picking it up?
[75:09] Does it Like what if the guy's on the
[75:11] other side of the country that's selling
[75:12] it to you?
[75:13] So, I would say true capital flight
[75:17] is the most inspiring. And let me tell
[75:19] you guys a story.
[75:21] When I first got into Bitcoin, this was
[75:23] in 2013,
[75:25] there was the Greek Cyprus crisis.
[75:28] Where
[75:29] everyone's bank accounts were getting
[75:31] frozen.
[75:32] And you saw Bitcoin catch a bid then.
[75:34] And the Bitcoin price was like
[75:36] I don't even remember.
[75:38] Couple hundred bucks or something.
[75:40] Couple hundred dollars per Bitcoin. But
[75:42] you still saw people fleeing to Bitcoin.
[75:44] And it was it was fascinating. This was
[75:47] 13 years ago.
[75:49] And I was like, "Wow." And I was asking
[75:50] my dad So, I was what? 18 years old? I
[75:53] was asking my dad,
[75:55] "What the [ __ ] going on?
[75:57] People in Greece are running to Bitcoin
[76:00] cuz their bank account is frozen?"
[76:02] And he was like, "Dude, think about it.
[76:04] If you had to
[76:07] get your money
[76:10] fast out of the country or like how else
[76:13] would you do it?
[76:17] So,
[76:19] you know, gold going up over the last
[76:21] year, year and a half is very likely due
[76:23] to China. China's not capital flighting.
[76:27] It's the opposite. As a country, they're
[76:30] remonetizing themselves on a hard money.
[76:32] This is capital flight. This is people
[76:36] in the middle of war
[76:37] that are trying to like secure their
[76:39] assets and get it out.
[76:43] That's my best guess.
[76:44] At the end of the day, people can say
[76:46] what they want about Bitcoin. Nothing
[76:48] else can go in your brain, nothing else
[76:49] can teleport over a over a
[76:51] communications channel like the
[76:52] internet. That's uh one of my favorite
[76:55] Satoshi quotes ever. He said, "Imagine
[76:58] an asset like gold that could teleport
[77:00] over something like the internet."
[77:03] That's the king during capital flight.
[77:06] So, that's my best guess.
[77:08] But, I could be wrong.
[77:11] Save the comments of like, "Dude, you
[77:13] tried to predict the future and you were
[77:14] wrong." Yeah, no [ __ ] idiot.
[77:18] Um
[77:20] Okay, next question.
[77:23] Your thoughts on what the Federal
[77:24] Reserve will do this year. PS, I got
[77:26] Arizona beating Duke in the finals with
[77:28] an OT win 93-91. Well, just for that
[77:31] reason alone, I'm not answering your
[77:32] stupid [ __ ] question. I'm just
[77:34] kidding. I'm a die-hard Duke fan,
[77:36] die-hard. Die-hard. As a kid, when Duke
[77:40] got knocked out of the tournament, I
[77:41] used to cry. And I I'd buy a white pack
[77:44] of t-shirts and I would write on the
[77:47] t-shirts in Sharpie like, "Please, no
[77:50] crap about Duke." Like, I'd write a
[77:51] message about Duke go to school.
[77:54] Say, "No one talk to me about Duke."
[77:56] Okay? So, we're the number one overall
[77:58] seed, best team in the country by far.
[77:59] What did you expect? Down two starters,
[78:02] down two starters.
[78:04] Still blowing teams out, still winning
[78:06] our conference tournament. By the way,
[78:09] nobody had a tougher schedule in the
[78:11] country than Duke. We're running from no
[78:14] smoke. We want all the smoke. Down two
[78:16] starters, we want all the smoke.
[78:20] Anyways,
[78:22] uh what did you ask me?
[78:25] I hope Arizona gets knocked out in the
[78:26] first round.
[78:28] Your thoughts on what the Federal
[78:30] Reserve will do this year. Uh okay,
[78:32] let's be more serious.
[78:33] What the Federal Reserve will do this
[78:35] year? I don't know if it's this year.
[78:37] I think they got to do yield curve
[78:38] control. And so just for everyone at
[78:41] home, what's yield curve control?
[78:43] It's where
[78:45] Listen, the US how how does the US get
[78:48] lent money?
[78:50] The US gets lent money via the bonds.
[78:53] They sell these bonds.
[78:55] And so when bond yields go up because
[78:57] demand for bonds go down, that's a very
[78:59] fancy complicated way of saying the
[79:01] demand to lend to the United States is
[79:03] going down. No one wants to lend to the
[79:05] United States anymore.
[79:07] If no one's lending to the United States
[79:09] anymore, who's the lender of last
[79:10] resort? The Fed. They will print the
[79:13] money to buy the bonds. That's yield
[79:16] curve control and it's called yield
[79:17] curve control because you're capping the
[79:18] yields.
[79:19] Put it to you guys this way. If
[79:22] the US yields right now for the 10-year
[79:24] like 4 and 1/2%. I actually don't know
[79:26] what they are today. Let's just Let's
[79:27] call it 4 and 1/2%.
[79:29] Let's say no one wants to lend to the US
[79:31] at 4 and 1/2% because the amount of
[79:33] inflation that's coming, oil's now $100
[79:35] a barrel, gold's $5,000 an ounce. I'm
[79:36] not lending to you at 4 and 1/2%. I'm
[79:39] going to need
[79:40] Then the market goes to 5%. No no bid. 5
[79:43] and 1/2%, no bid. 6%, no bid. 10%, no
[79:46] bid. Guys, listen, the US can't afford
[79:49] that.
[79:51] So those higher numbers aren't an
[79:53] option.
[79:54] Back when Janet Yellen was the Treasury
[79:56] Secretary, anytime the 10-year sniffed
[79:58] 5%, she printed a ton of [ __ ] money.
[80:02] And so the point is the US can only
[80:04] afford so much, but the world is
[80:07] demanding what they deem reasonable
[80:09] given inflation and what they're saying
[80:11] with commodities all over the world.
[80:13] So if the US can't afford more than 5%,
[80:15] but the world's not lending at anything
[80:17] less than 5%, then the Fed has to print
[80:20] the money to lend to the US. And that's
[80:22] called yield curve control. And that's
[80:24] my expectation for the very simple
[80:26] reason that I don't think there's enough
[80:27] money out there that's stupid enough to
[80:29] be buying US bonds.
[80:32] Nobody wants those pieces of trash. I've
[80:34] been saying that for years and now we're
[80:36] right. Who the [ __ ] wants to lend to the
[80:38] United States right now? Nobody.
[80:43] So, I think yield curve control. Will it
[80:45] be this year?
[80:46] Maybe.
[80:48] We'll see. When When's the new guy
[80:49] start? May.
[80:54] Uh Jack, can you please do an
[80:57] easy-to-understand episode on the
[80:59] properties of Bitcoin versus the
[81:00] properties of shitcoins clearly laid out
[81:03] so I can use it to convince my buddies?
[81:06] Yes.
[81:09] I will. But, does that or I will make
[81:11] I'll do a section in some future
[81:13] episode, but does that mean I also
[81:15] answer it right now?
[81:19] I'll do it later. I'll do it at some
[81:22] future episode and hold me to that.
[81:24] We'll do a Bitcoin versus shitcoin
[81:25] section where we'll have assets and you
[81:27] can clip it and send it to your buddies.
[81:29] Yes.
[81:31] Question, which metrics would you look
[81:33] at to track Bitcoin adoption? I love
[81:35] this question. The price.
[81:38] That's it.
[81:40] Let me tell you guys something.
[81:42] People that say, you know you know the
[81:44] the Bitcoiner that says [ __ ] like,
[81:47] "I'm not in it for the price.
[81:49] I don't care about the price. I'm in it
[81:51] for the adoption."
[81:53] Hey idiot,
[81:54] the price is adoption. What does the
[81:57] price tell us? The price tells us how
[81:58] much of the world is using Bitcoin as
[82:00] money.
[82:01] I did a rant about this last episode.
[82:03] Money is very simply the thing you
[82:05] acquire not to consume. You don't eat
[82:08] the money, you don't drive the money,
[82:09] you don't live in the money. You acquire
[82:10] the the thing to save it and then you
[82:12] later exchange it. I also saw idiots,
[82:15] morons that say, "No, Jack. Money's a a
[82:18] medium of exchange." Yeah, you idiot.
[82:20] The thing that you acquire to save and
[82:22] then later exchange for the things you
[82:24] need is also your medium of exchange,
[82:26] you [ __ ] So, that's all money is. It's
[82:28] just the thing that you acquire
[82:30] like this water bottle. I acquired this
[82:32] water to consume it, to drink it, not to
[82:35] save it. The Bitcoins that I acquire,
[82:37] I'm acquiring to save and then later
[82:39] exchange for the things I need. I need
[82:41] to uh I'm going to get married soon. I
[82:44] need to get a wedding. I need to get a
[82:45] house. I need to get a plane to New
[82:47] York, right? Okay. Very simply put.
[82:51] Uh
[82:53] Now,
[82:54] the price What the price tells us is how
[82:57] much of the world is using Bitcoin as
[83:00] money. Because some of the world uses
[83:02] dollars as money. Some of the world uses
[83:04] real estate as money. Some of the world
[83:05] is using equities as money.
[83:07] The price is the core KPI for Bitcoin.
[83:10] If Bitcoin grows to be a hundred
[83:11] trillion dollar market, that means
[83:13] Bitcoin's getting more adopted as a
[83:15] money. People are saving and exchanging
[83:17] in it.
[83:18] And people say, "No, they're not. I'm
[83:20] not buying my pizza
[83:22] uh directly with Bitcoin." Yeah, but
[83:25] you're using a credit card to get the
[83:27] pizza and then you're paying your credit
[83:28] card bill with Strike with Bitcoin. Like
[83:31] the these are rounding errors at the
[83:33] user experience level and we will get
[83:34] them right over time.
[83:36] What I'm saying is how much of the
[83:38] world's time and energy is being saved
[83:40] and exchanged in Bitcoin. And right now
[83:42] the answer is about 1.5 trillion. If
[83:44] that grows to 5 trillion, that's to me
[83:46] what matters. How much of the world
[83:48] world's cash balance, time and energy,
[83:51] excess productivity is in Bitcoin.
[83:55] So, it's not the only thing that
[83:56] matters, but it kills me when people
[83:59] say, "I'm not worried about the price."
[84:02] It's like
[84:03] dude, stop being a hardo. Stop Like
[84:06] these people think they're hard. They're
[84:07] like, "Yeah, I'm morally above you.
[84:10] You're shallow. You care about the
[84:11] price.
[84:13] I'm too cool to care about the price."
[84:14] Shut the [ __ ] up.
[84:16] The Like what are you talking about?
[84:19] Do you understand that we're working on
[84:21] money? The price is the only thing that
[84:24] matters arguably. If there was one thing
[84:26] that mattered, it'd be the price.
[84:29] You can't work on money and not care
[84:31] about the price.
[84:35] Anyways.
[84:39] Found the
[84:40] Found that question to be an excuse on
[84:42] uh what to rant about.
[84:44] Uh
[84:51] Dylan's messaging me things that I don't
[84:53] understand.
[84:55] Deal with it later.
[84:56] Uh question, Dylan. Do you think Bitcoin
[84:59] adoption is driven by better technology
[85:01] or by collapsing trust in the current
[85:02] system?
[85:03] I think it's both.
[85:06] So, what what I've said is Bitcoin is
[85:09] some combination of technology plus fiat
[85:12] liquidity. In fiat liquidity, what I
[85:14] mean by that is them printing more
[85:15] money, but that's another fancier way of
[85:17] saying the collapse of the existing
[85:19] system. So, I would say Bitcoin is some
[85:21] combination of technology plus the
[85:23] existing system collapsing. And they
[85:25] kind of take turns at which one's
[85:27] driving Bitcoin more at the current
[85:30] time. I would say in this current
[85:31] moment, it's about the collapse of the
[85:33] system. I mean, we're literally living
[85:35] through the craziest timeline right now.
[85:37] But, there have been times in the past
[85:39] and there will be times in the future
[85:40] where Bitcoin's technology has major
[85:42] breakthroughs in global payments or
[85:44] global trade settlement. I mean, there's
[85:45] all sorts of things that Bitcoin's
[85:47] technology will enable. But, at the end
[85:50] of the day, on net, Bitcoin is some
[85:51] combination. Like, when I think about
[85:53] the Bitcoin price, the Bitcoin price is
[85:55] very simply
[85:57] some combination of the technology
[86:00] plus
[86:01] the collapse of the existing system plus
[86:03] fiat liquidity.
[86:05] I and I would say right now we're in a
[86:07] fiat liquidity era. Where
[86:10] there's no There's no like Lightning
[86:13] Network feature that's going to do more
[86:15] for the Bitcoin price than yield curve
[86:17] control.
[86:18] You know what I mean? I'm not I don't
[86:20] mean that super literally, but just
[86:22] directionally, that's I feel like we're
[86:24] that's the era we're in.
[86:28] Uh question, Jack. How does Bitcoin
[86:29] avoid being fractionally reserved if
[86:32] users aren't cold storing and
[86:33] transacting on the base layer?
[86:36] Um I think it's critical that users can
[86:39] and do transact on the base layer and
[86:42] hold their own keys.
[86:45] So,
[86:47] I mean,
[86:49] you know, people talk about proof of the
[86:50] reserves all the time. The only real
[86:52] proof of reserves is withdrawing your
[86:53] Bitcoin and holding it.
[86:55] You know, there are ways that you can
[86:56] improve on transparency and, you know,
[86:59] earn more trust, but at the end of the
[87:02] day,
[87:03] that's the only way is that if the
[87:06] entire
[87:07] Bitcoin supply was on Coinbase,
[87:10] there is no true and honest way for us
[87:13] to prevent fractional reserving.
[87:17] Now,
[87:20] thankfully, the way Satoshi distributed
[87:22] Bitcoin was to the people via proof of
[87:24] work.
[87:26] And so, the Bitcoin supply is very
[87:28] fairly distributed.
[87:30] Like, there isn't 80% on Coinbase.
[87:34] The top holder, Michael Saylor, doesn't
[87:36] own 40% of the Bitcoin supply. These
[87:39] numbers are very small, especially when
[87:41] compared to an asset like gold.
[87:45] So, we're in a really good spot, but if
[87:47] over time,
[87:49] nobody holds their own keys, then yeah.
[87:52] I mean,
[87:53] it's it's incredibly important. And
[87:55] these were, you know,
[87:57] things like the block size wars was to
[87:58] make sure everyone could run a node.
[88:01] You know, it's incredibly important that
[88:03] at the very least everyone has the
[88:05] option.
[88:07] That's what holds businesses
[88:08] accountable. That's what's will hold
[88:10] governments accountable is that at any
[88:12] point I can withdraw.
[88:15] And over time, you see a maturing. Like
[88:18] after FTX, how many people are willing
[88:21] to just trust institutions with their
[88:22] [ __ ] Less than before.
[88:25] And increasingly, the cool thing about
[88:27] free markets is they punish
[88:29] misallocation of capital. When people
[88:32] [ __ ] up, there are consequences. There
[88:34] are not just bailouts. So, you trusted
[88:36] Sam Bankman-Fried, you didn't learn how
[88:38] to self-custody, you didn't take
[88:40] precautions on what institutions to use
[88:42] and what not, you have to pay that cost.
[88:46] And so, over time, it's like a
[88:48] self-governing free market system. And
[88:50] it's just definitely important that we
[88:51] don't compromise with things like big
[88:54] blocks where not Well, not everyone can
[88:56] run a node, but not everyone was going
[88:58] to run a node anyway. That's not the
[89:00] point. The point is that anyone who
[89:02] wants to can, and that always has to be
[89:04] the case.
[89:06] Always.
[89:09] Uh okay, Strike questions. Not sure how
[89:11] to get questions to the producer.
[89:14] Well, here you are. But, when will
[89:15] Bitcoin-backed loans be in a be
[89:17] available in South Dakota? There may
[89:20] only be five of us looking for them in
[89:22] the whole state, but we need them, too.
[89:24] I don't know if we have a timeline for
[89:25] South Dakota, but definitely soon.
[89:28] Uh we're working on it all. We are
[89:30] working on it all.
[89:32] Um
[89:33] next. Uh "Jack and Dylan, I cannot wait
[89:37] for Bitcoin-backed loans to be available
[89:38] in the UK. Any news? Even if not till
[89:40] later this year, will there be something
[89:41] to look forward to?" Um again, no
[89:44] timeline, but we're working on it all. I
[89:46] do know that it is a this year thing for
[89:48] the UK. Like, I think it might be a Q2
[89:51] thing. Um might be like the next 3
[89:53] months. Don't hold me to that, but it
[89:55] might be.
[89:57] "Jack, I noticed my business account on
[89:59] Strike doesn't have direct deposit
[90:00] option. If I use my account wire info,
[90:02] will I be able to get money sent there
[90:04] safely?" Yes, you should be able to.
[90:06] Also, if you want to reach out to
[90:08] support for any reason, feel free.
[90:11] Um by any means, feel free.
[90:13] Um
[90:15] for Strike, when can we expect a high
[90:16] yield savings account? We are working on
[90:19] this right now.
[90:21] Um I don't want to promise any dates,
[90:23] but it is like it's an active priority
[90:25] internally at the company. We're
[90:28] building it as a as we speak.
[90:30] Uh can we get a function to toggle
[90:32] between our personal and business
[90:33] accounts on Strike? I know that that's a
[90:35] frequent request. I don't know
[90:38] when we plan on releasing that, but that
[90:40] I know that it's on the road map.
[90:43] Hello from Costa Rica. I have a question
[90:45] for Jack. Did you name Strike in honor
[90:47] of Atlas Shrugged?
[90:49] And also is the logo a middle finger?
[90:53] Uh that's not entirely why we named
[90:55] Strike. Is the logo a middle finger? No.
[90:59] It's
[91:00] I'll explain the logo another day, but
[91:02] this is true.
[91:03] If you rotate the logo exactly 69°,
[91:08] it does present as a middle finger. Now
[91:11] that was on purpose.
[91:13] >> [laughter]
[91:14] >> Uh what basketball players do you
[91:16] respect and attempt to emulate your pick
[91:19] up runs? How would you describe your
[91:21] game?
[91:23] Um
[91:25] I shoot well from the three. I have a
[91:26] heater.
[91:28] Heater.
[91:29] Uh
[91:30] and I'm quick. I'm small. I joke if I
[91:32] wasn't 5'8" 150 lb, if I was 6'4", I
[91:36] wouldn't be working on Bitcoin. My my
[91:38] running joke is Satoshi made me small so
[91:41] that I could work on Bitcoin. Um but I'm
[91:44] very
[91:45] quick and I shoot it well,
[91:48] defend well.
[91:50] Uh
[91:53] Hey Jack, can you or hey Dylan, can you
[91:55] ask Jack to give us a yo? He didn't give
[91:57] it in the beginning.
[91:58] Uh
[92:00] Oh, and then and then we're done. Okay,
[92:02] I'll end it with a yo.
[92:05] And then I got to pack um because I got
[92:08] to get to New York, man.
[92:10] The weather
[92:11] in the Midwest and the East is tough.
[92:14] Um
[92:16] so HERE'S YOUR YO.
[92:18] YO!
[92:20] AND WITH that
[92:22] uh I'm out of here.
[92:24] I appreciate you guys. Love you guys as
[92:26] always. Um be careful the news you read
[92:29] about this conflict in the Middle East.
[92:31] Do your own research including on
[92:32] myself. I could be wrong. Who knows? But
[92:35] I think there's more to the story. Be
[92:37] productive. S- uh earn more than you're
[92:40] spending. Save. Try and find ways to own
[92:43] property that no one can take from you.
[92:45] My favorite is Bitcoin.
[92:47] And uh stay safe out there. Stay safe
[92:49] out there.
[92:50] And uh give me feedback. As always, I
[92:52] read all the comments. I make sure uh I
[92:55] incorporate the advice you guys give me.
[92:58] One of the most unique relationships on
[93:00] the internet and in corporate America
[93:02] has got to be mine with you guys. I
[93:04] mean, no one I would wait to say no one
[93:07] runs companies as big as Strike and 21
[93:12] like I do.
[93:13] And I love it. I love it. Man of the
[93:16] people.
[93:18] I wouldn't have it any other way. So
[93:19] thank you guys for all the support. I'll
[93:21] see you next week. If you're in New
[93:23] York, I'll see you tomorrow.
[93:25] And uh take care. Peace and love.