Why Is Bitcoin CRASHING?!

0:00 There are more AI agents on HTML sites
0:03 than humans. This is where we're headed.
0:05 So if you think the world of human
0:07 beings is going to dominate commerce,
0:09 it's not. It's AI agents. So if you ask
0:11 me what is a direct play on that, I
0:13 believe Bitcoin is a direct play on
0:15 agents dominating humans going forward.
0:18 What's going on guys? Today we got a
0:19 great conversation with Jordy Visser. In
0:21 this conversation, we talk about what's
0:22 going on with Bitcoin. Why is it selling
0:23 off? Is Jordy worried? And is he going
0:25 to sell his Bitcoin? On top of that, we
0:27 talk about what's going on with Eli Liy,
0:28 why he is so convicted that it could be
0:30 the best AI name for the AI trade. And
0:32 then we get into a bunch of other second
0:34 and third order effects of what's going
0:36 on with the infrastructure buildout,
0:37 artificial intelligence, so much tokens
0:40 being consumed, and then how does
0:42 Bitcoin fit into all this? All that much
0:44 more in this conversation with Jordy
0:45 Visser. All right, Jordy, Bitcoin is
0:47 down 50% from its all-time high. People
0:49 are freaking out. Michael Sailor sold 32
0:51 Bitcoin this week, and people think that
0:52 maybe he doesn't believe anymore. What's
0:54 your take as to why Bitcoin has fallen
0:56 so much and is it over or will Bitcoin
0:58 recover?
1:00 >> So, I learned my lesson that last year
1:02 not to predict levels on the upside. I'm
1:04 also not going to predict levels on the
1:05 downside. Um, last week in my weekend
1:08 video,
1:10 I highlighted the difference between a
1:12 bull market and a bare market. And
1:14 that's what charts are good for. um
1:17 we're still in a bare market until that
1:18 changes and until we start seeing some
1:20 moving averages start to either point
1:22 higher, but more importantly, we failed
1:24 at the 200 day moving average a few
1:26 weeks ago. We started to go down again
1:28 all while the stock market was going up
1:30 nine weeks in a row. So, the good news
1:32 is Bitcoin's not correlated to the stock
1:34 market anymore. The bad news is uh it's
1:37 down 50% off the highs. I wrote a paper
1:41 last week to yeah last week um in
1:44 Substack about taking a stoic approach
1:47 to everything in life. But it's really
1:49 important with with markets and I think
1:51 for people that are either a frustrated
1:53 or b people that are really happy and
1:56 pounding on X and the bearish thing,
1:58 this bubble's going to unwind, strategy
2:00 is going to go bust. This is the way it
2:01 all ends. None of that's true. um in my
2:05 opinion uh I also don't believe that
2:07 Micron can continue to go up every
2:10 single week. So on one side we have this
2:13 whole recognition of hardware everything
2:16 should be bought. We had software go
2:18 down. Now you've had some of the
2:19 software names go up. Most of them so
2:22 people realize are not true software
2:24 names. They are AI software names. So
2:26 cyber names and the Bitcoin uh miners
2:28 and things like that. So I think
2:30 Bitcoin's been lumped in. Um,
2:33 I'm starting to write about this more.
2:35 Uh, you're going to see a lot more from
2:36 me. I believe we're at a rotation point
2:38 that's going to last for at least the
2:40 next 3 to 6 months. And that rotation is
2:43 we're kind of at a I don't want to say a
2:45 market stock market bubble. What I'll
2:46 say is a rotation bubble. We've had one
2:50 group winning and most groups have been
2:52 losing.
2:54 Starting to see a rotation. And I think
2:56 software is going to have a bid. But I
2:58 don't think when people recognize what
3:00 I'm going to say with software, it's
3:01 going to resonate with them. But the
3:03 software is not going to be the
3:04 traditional SAS software. So I think
3:06 people are going to have to think
3:07 outside the box on human software and
3:10 also the financial guardrails with
3:12 tokenization and everything. And that's
3:14 where my attention is focused. So I
3:15 think Bitcoin's fine. Let it break
3:17 through the 60,000 level. Maybe it goes
3:19 down even below that. I don't really
3:22 care. You told me months ago four-year
3:26 cycle basically was like uh male
3:28 astrology, right? You're just like, why
3:30 why does this four-year cycle exist? Who
3:32 made this up? Why does this thing uh
3:33 anyone pay attention to it? Are you a
3:35 believer yet?
3:36 >> No.
3:37 >> Why not?
3:38 >> Again, um first of all, I don't do the
3:41 same thing with the stock market. One
3:42 thing I will say is this is the first
3:44 time in that quote unquote four-year
3:46 cycle that stocks are going higher at
3:48 the same time that Bitcoin's going down.
3:50 And I don't know whether that's good or
3:51 bad. My whole belief has been that the
3:53 only time that crypto can go through the
3:54 growth that I believe it will
3:57 go through which is the transfer of
4:00 wealth from the fiat system into the
4:02 crypto side or at least a merging of the
4:03 two. That was the whole reason why I
4:05 focused on AI and focused on crypto for
4:08 that to occur you need to run to a point
4:10 where believe it or not they have to be
4:12 uncorrelated to some degree. And I think
4:14 we're at that phase now. So that's the
4:16 positive side. The negative side is and
4:17 again the thing that has always
4:18 protected me in life. We all have views
4:21 on assets. We all have views and we're
4:22 all wrong at some period of time. I
4:25 don't want to get heavily involved with
4:27 playing Bitcoin or any crypto stuff on
4:30 the upside until someone else is doing
4:32 it. I'm not a momentum investor, but at
4:35 this point, we're not talking about
4:36 momentum. It's down 50%. So, let it
4:38 start to base. Let it look like supply
4:40 and demand have met a place where it's
4:43 positive and then let it break a
4:45 long-term moving average. There was
4:46 something um this week about Charlie Mer
4:50 uh talking about if I could just have
4:53 one thing in hindsight, it was the fact
4:55 that find good companies that you
4:57 believe in long-term that get back to
4:59 their 200E moving average. That's the
5:02 way I'm focused on Bitcoin. I don't
5:04 remember where the 200WE moving average
5:05 is, but the 200WE moving average is a
5:08 really important thing. And again, if
5:09 you lock it in to what you said, what is
5:11 the 200WE moving average? Well, that's
5:13 kind of a 4-year moving average. So, if
5:15 the four-year cycle is this, it's fine.
5:17 I've done a couple interviews in the
5:19 past week, and I just want to say this
5:20 to everyone. Um, I believe that the IPOs
5:24 that are coming, what Google did this
5:26 past week, which I'm sure we'll talk
5:28 about all of these, but I think these
5:30 are a sign of something important. It's
5:32 not a stock market bubble to me, but it
5:34 is a sign that people need a lot of
5:36 capital right now for what is happening
5:38 with inside the AI world. And that's an
5:40 important story. On the flip side with
5:43 what's going on with crypto,
5:45 I think if you would have looked in
5:47 hindsight for a what would be a sell the
5:49 news event, very similar to what I think
5:51 might be happening in the hardware side
5:53 for the time being, an ETF launch, we're
5:56 still above where we were trading at the
5:58 ETF launch. Number two, the US
6:01 government basically decides that crypto
6:03 is good and the president of the United
6:05 States says okay and he launches a
6:07 memecoin. If you would have taken those
6:08 events which basically occurred in 24
6:11 and 25 and said what would that be?
6:13 Well, that will be a sell the news event
6:16 and yet Bitcoin went higher into those.
6:18 But I think if you look at it and you go
6:20 back to how many OGs have been selling
6:22 and what's been going on, I do think
6:23 there's been churn that's been happening
6:25 now since 2024. So, for people that are
6:28 looking for hope, until the charts start
6:31 giving you hope and you get a it going
6:33 higher on bad news type thing, I'm not
6:35 going to get too into it. I'll still
6:37 stick with the the the the main thing I
6:39 said, which is we right now have
6:41 three-month rates that are below
6:42 inflation.
6:44 Just wait for the next trend higher in
6:45 Bitcoin. And I think this will be the
6:47 one that gets very important.
6:48 >> What could convince you to sell your
6:50 Bitcoin?
6:53 I I know this is going to um
6:56 not be the answer people want want to
6:58 hear, but um there's a reason why all of
7:01 my eggs are not in one basket.
7:03 >> I have plenty of things. So does
7:05 everyone who's investing own things that
7:07 are probably going to zero. And everyone
7:09 might sit there and say, "No, that's not
7:11 true. If you own the S&P 500, trust me,
7:14 you own some things that are going to
7:15 zero." Bitcoin is not everything in my
7:18 life. So, I believe on where crypto is
7:21 going to go. I have plenty things in my
7:22 portfolio that I'm going to own forever.
7:25 I really do. Uh, do I think Bitcoin
7:28 might go to zero? Sure. It's part of the
7:30 distribution of outcomes. Do I think
7:32 quantum is going to do it? Do I think it
7:34 I think it's a very low probability. So,
7:36 again, everything in my mind is always
7:37 based on what my father taught me, which
7:39 is what do I think the upside is versus
7:40 what do I think the downside is? And
7:42 then what percentage of the bets do I
7:43 want it to be? It's not everything for
7:45 me. So, if people are sitting there and
7:46 they have 100% of their wealth in
7:48 Bitcoin, I think that's very stupid. If
7:50 they have less than 1%, I think that's
7:52 very stupid. I believe that it should be
7:55 at this point in everyone's portfolio at
7:56 least 2 to 3% regardless of what they
7:59 believe in. So, that's the way I'm going
8:01 to answer the question. It could go to
8:02 zero. I'm not selling any because it's
8:04 not that important in my lifetime. If it
8:06 was, I'd probably be going through it.
8:08 One thing I have said, I've never sold a
8:10 single one in it, single Bitcoin. I have
8:14 traded Micro Strategy many many times.
8:16 Got in, got out, got in, got out. I will
8:19 trade, but I trade more in uh in Micro
8:22 Strategy and I really didn't own much
8:24 Ethereum at all. I've been buying
8:26 Ethereum during this whole drop. So, I'm
8:28 happy it's going down because I'm
8:29 putting bits and pieces in. If we start
8:32 to trend higher, I'm going to treat this
8:33 like I did Micron last year. I bought
8:35 Micron from 105 down to 60 all beginning
8:39 part of last year and look where it is
8:41 today. That's the way I view Bitcoin for
8:43 next year.
8:43 >> Jordy, you can't come into the church of
8:45 a podcast and talk about Ethereum. Why
8:47 are you buying Ethereum if Bitcoin is so
8:49 cheap?
8:50 >> Well, I'm buying Bitcoin as well. Um, I
8:53 the Ethereum thing again is more of a uh
8:56 an ecosystem thing at this point. I I
8:59 really am betting that the network
9:00 effects are going to be the big story
9:01 for next year, for the next 12 months. I
9:03 think Bitcoin is going to be a
9:05 participant in this whole situation. I
9:08 don't know if you saw
9:10 I sent you something. So I am working on
9:13 having a weekly YouTube that is
9:15 specifically geared towards crypto. Now
9:17 to do that I want to convert for the
9:19 traditional finance crowd how they can
9:23 look at the crypto ecosystem in the same
9:25 way they look at the S&P 500 which means
9:27 some sort of sectors or themes with
9:29 inside. And so for me Ethereum is a
9:33 better proxy for that in terms of I want
9:34 to bet on the ecosystem. I'm not going
9:36 to bet solely on Bitcoin. But the
9:38 reality is when I create an equal weight
9:40 of 40 separate companies, 34 of them
9:43 being
9:45 cryptocurrencies or tokens, six of them
9:47 being public stocks, all as one index,
9:50 very similar to my uh agentic thematic
9:52 portfolio,
9:53 magically it's extremely correlated to
9:56 Bitcoin, even when you don't include
9:58 Bitcoin in it. So for me, that means
10:00 that the ecosystem is acting the way I
10:02 think it should. It also means that
10:03 Bitcoin is what I think it is, which is
10:04 the S&P 500 of the crypto world. So, at
10:07 some point,
10:08 >> the king,
10:08 >> it's it's the S&P 500. It's the only
10:10 thing that lasts at the end of time. And
10:12 I don't know if we've talked about it. I
10:14 don't believe any idea or innovation in
10:16 the history of mankind has ever lasted.
10:18 There's always a new thing that's
10:19 better. There's always a new way of
10:20 doing something that's different. Well,
10:22 that is what stocks are. That is what
10:23 tokens are. They're ideas. They're
10:25 innovations by human beings. And if AI
10:27 is now going to be creating all of the
10:28 ideas, that means they're not going to
10:30 be around that long. There'll be
10:31 something better that comes up. You're
10:32 going to start seeing this far more
10:34 rapidly. That's why when people say well
10:36 what's the bare case on memory I went
10:37 very easily you think human beings are
10:40 going to solve the memory side I don't I
10:42 think algorithms are going to solve the
10:43 memory side when is that going to happen
10:46 I don't know but within 5 years I know
10:47 it will in my head so when Goldman Sachs
10:49 says 5 years from now we'll be at this
10:51 I'm like I don't really care that's why
10:52 I stick myself in the AI world so I I
10:55 just think for this whole thing when
10:56 people really think about crypto and
10:58 they really think about this you have to
10:59 make a decision on whether you believe
11:00 still in the long-term story and if you
11:02 don't you should be out if you still
11:04 believe in the long-term story, then
11:06 it's a gift that you're getting to put
11:07 things down here. I'm not only buying
11:08 for me. I mentioned to you early on when
11:10 we started doing this that I have
11:11 strategic Bitcoin reserves for my kids.
11:14 This is a blessing to me. My business is
11:16 growing and I'm able to put more of the
11:18 profits that I have back into Bitcoin
11:20 for my kids. So, if it doesn't work out,
11:22 sorry guys, you guys lost out. If it
11:24 does work out the way I think it will,
11:25 they're going to be very, very happy in
11:27 few years. It's always um I like old
11:29 school ads because I think that the ad
11:31 creative used to be very uh thoughtful,
11:33 very uh kind of bold, right? Um and one
11:37 of them I think it's uh Philippe PC uh
11:39 has this entire ad campaign that talks
11:42 about it's not your watch, you're merely
11:44 taking care of it for the next
11:45 generation. And this idea that when you
11:47 buy this, it is not only one going to
11:49 last, but two is you were going to pass
11:51 it down. And so now all of a sudden
11:52 emotion, family, and all this stuff gets
11:54 attached to it. very powerful ad
11:56 campaign for obvious reasons. Um, it's
11:58 very luxury positioning. But the more
12:00 that I've thought about that campaign in
12:02 an investment portfolio, especially when
12:03 you have kids, you start to think about,
12:05 well, what if I don't think of this
12:06 portfolio as mine? I think about it as
12:08 theirs and what do I want to allocate to
12:12 resilience and the ability to have
12:15 durability from a a time horizon really
12:18 becomes interesting. Now the reason I
12:20 think of that is because probably the
12:21 smartest investor that I know who who I
12:23 don't want to name uh said to me one
12:25 time that the hardest problem in finance
12:27 is the intertemporal transfer of wealth.
12:31 And I was like yeah that's too smart for
12:32 me. What does that mean? He basically
12:34 say how do you give yourself money 20
12:36 years from now? So this idea again of
12:37 resilience of durability and
12:41 historically I think a lot of families
12:43 real estate has been a great asset for
12:45 them to do but there are cases where you
12:47 know Detroit used to be really popular
12:48 and now all of a sudden maybe the real
12:50 estate prices aren't what they were at
12:51 one point. Obviously CO I think really
12:53 scared the heck out of a lot of um you
12:55 know corporate building owners in New
12:57 York City for example right and it's
12:58 come back but there was a period there
13:00 where people were were questioning it. I
13:02 don't know of an asset more than Bitcoin
13:05 that people have confidence in over some
13:07 very long period of time, 50 years, 60
13:09 years, is going to continue to do that.
13:11 And so that's what I think I hear you
13:13 saying as well is like, look, this is
13:15 such like a long-term thing that there's
13:16 almost nothing that can convince you to
13:18 sell it, but you understand that doesn't
13:19 mean it's going to be successful. It's
13:21 just the thing that you are playing or
13:23 the exposure you're buying is almost
13:25 this like durability in the portfolio
13:26 over a long period. Is that like a fair
13:28 way to categorize it?
13:30 >> Yeah, but
13:32 So over the course of the last year,
13:34 you've gotten to know me and and the
13:36 viewers and listeners have.
13:38 >> You weren't wearing these nice shirts
13:40 back then, you know. Now all a sudden we
13:42 got a fashion icon.
13:44 >> So I I haven't um this is a Hawaiian
13:46 shirt and because I'm in this now
13:49 library.
13:49 >> I think we're going to call it the
13:50 podcast cathedral. That's what I've been
13:52 thinking.
13:52 >> Okay. The podcast cathedral. So I've
13:55 decided that it needs a little Hawaiian
13:56 shirt every day until I head to Maine in
13:58 3 weeks. though. Um, here's here's the
14:01 thing I'm going to say. I I spend a lot
14:04 of time thinking about what the future's
14:05 going to look like and I take bits and
14:07 pieces from a lot of futurists. So, I
14:12 mentioned yesterday that I met Keith
14:14 Keith Gman and we talked about Kevin
14:15 Kelly from Wired magazine.
14:17 >> Kevin Kelly had a huge influence in me
14:19 during the 2014 to 2020 period. I read a
14:22 lot of his books. He's a futurist that
14:24 called a lot of things directly right.
14:26 his angle on this and my belief in
14:28 Moore's law, Ray Kerszswwell,
14:29 singularity, all of that stuff is why I
14:31 believe in Bitcoin. I think it's ironic
14:34 that Bitcoin is as of today, it's a
14:37 trillion half dollar asset. Isn't it
14:40 ironic that we have SpaceX coming and
14:44 it's about a trillion and a half asset?
14:47 How can people justify buying a company
14:50 that not only is not making money right
14:53 now? And forget Elon, let's leave it
14:55 alone. He's great. But to make the
14:58 comparison between Bitcoin and space,
15:00 you're still buying something based on
15:02 your future thought. And when I talk to
15:05 people who love rocket investments and I
15:07 go, "How is that any different than
15:09 Bitcoin? How do you have any idea on
15:12 something that is more than 3 years out?
15:14 How do you know the government won't
15:15 take over SpaceX? How do you know?
15:17 There's there's no way to know what the
15:20 future's going to look like when you're
15:21 dealing with something that's based on
15:22 going to Mars, which has never been done
15:24 before. So, when I think of investments
15:26 and I think of the future, I have a
15:28 belief on what I think will happen. I
15:30 don't think investing in the S&P 500 is
15:32 safe past 2030. I've said that
15:33 repeatedly because I think AI will
15:35 disrupt all companies. So, for me, I
15:39 don't think Apple's safe. I don't think
15:41 Google's safe. I don't think Amazon's
15:43 safe. So when people look at Bitcoin and
15:45 they don't think it's safe, I understand
15:46 that that's their belief. The question
15:47 is, have they thought a lot about the
15:49 future? Because one of the reasons that
15:50 I think Bitcoin is safe is because the
15:54 consumer, human beings will not be
15:57 consuming more than AI agents in a short
16:01 amount of time. Now, one of the great
16:03 things about I know you you know him and
16:06 you go through, but one of the great
16:07 things about Moonpay is the agentic side
16:08 and being able to talk to someone who
16:10 knows what's happening with AI agents
16:12 and involved. It came out on X this week
16:14 that there are more AI agents on HTML
16:17 sites than humans. Like this is where
16:20 we're headed. So if you think the world
16:22 of human beings is going to dominate
16:24 commerce, it's not. It's AI agents. So
16:26 if you ask me what is a direct play on
16:28 that, I believe Bitcoin is a direct play
16:30 on agents dominating humans going
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17:46 I agree with you that Bitcoin is a safer
17:49 bet than any company just given all of
17:51 the complexities, all the changes, etc.
17:53 over let's say 20 years.
17:55 >> Does that then mean if you get paid for
17:57 the risk that you take that companies
17:59 should be more asymmetric and actually
18:01 Bitcoin should not be asymmetric because
18:03 it is quote unquote safer and therefore
18:05 the return profile should be lower?
18:07 >> Now here here's what I'll say is
18:09 happening in the world today and here's
18:10 where I say Bitcoin actually set the
18:12 framework for this. So what's another
18:14 positive thing in Bitcoin? Well, this
18:15 50% crash has occurred with volatility
18:18 collapsing.
18:18 >> Mhm.
18:19 >> It's not been because of FTX. It's not
18:21 been like the volatility is going down.
18:24 >> Mhm.
18:24 >> So, Bitcoin's bleeding like 2% a week.
18:28 >> It's not going down 15% in one day
18:30 anymore,
18:31 >> but every day we're watching the leading
18:33 stocks in the stock market move 8 to 10%
18:36 a day. Every single one of them. We're
18:38 seeing individual stocks trading at the
18:40 highest volatility relative to index
18:42 vault that we've ever seen. And so this
18:45 is a representation to me that the
18:47 traders of the world which are very zero
18:49 date to expiration option related.
18:51 They're very retail related. It's
18:53 training people to get re to get ready
18:55 more for parabas and bubbles and speed
18:58 crashes as I've written about. That is
19:00 what I think we're in now. That means
19:01 that Bitcoin is acceptable as an asset
19:04 because one of the big negatives was it
19:05 was too volatile. It's not too volatile
19:07 anymore relative to the things that are
19:09 making alpha in the market. So what I
19:11 see happening is this exponential move.
19:13 The agentic move is compressing time.
19:16 And one of the things when I spoke at
19:17 the New York Stock Exchange this week
19:18 that I highlighted to people, you have
19:20 to understand that the MAG7 went from 1
19:23 trillion to 20 plus trillion in
19:26 basically a decade.
19:29 Isn't that a bubble? It's a bubble
19:31 except for one thing. It just happened
19:33 over a longer time period. So if Micron
19:36 can go from 60 to,00 and then it goes
19:40 back to 600 and I'm not saying it's
19:42 going to but if it does was it a bull
19:45 market was it a bare market or was it
19:47 both and that's what Bitcoin then all of
19:48 a sudden maybe these aren't four-year
19:50 cycles maybe these are now 9mon cycles
19:52 and we've compress the time and that's
19:54 what a bubble is. It's price versus time
19:57 and I'll say it again and again. AI is
19:59 speeding up time. The exponential age is
20:01 speeding up time at a pace we've never
20:02 seen before.
20:02 >> So there's a couple pieces of this. Uh
20:04 first of all, we need more bubbles and
20:06 we need more billionaires, which I think
20:07 is uh two ideas that
20:09 >> you're getting both of those.
20:10 >> Yeah. Both of those ideas, I think, are
20:12 very uh counterintuitive to people. But
20:14 the bubbles bring capital and you've
20:16 mentioned that these companies need the
20:18 capital to build out the infrastructure
20:19 for what is going to be the future. Now,
20:22 with Bitcoin, and I think that Micron
20:24 and some of these other companies are
20:25 now experiencing the same thing. And so,
20:27 uh I actually think that there's a very
20:29 interesting historical analysis of
20:30 crypto over the last 15 years or so. It
20:33 may have been the best training ground
20:35 to be an investor in any asset class
20:37 because what you essentially did is you
20:39 compressed all these market cycles into
20:40 a very short period of time. Volatility
20:42 was magnified in in a way that um you
20:46 know the the stat that I always tell
20:47 people is uh 50% draw down in public
20:50 equities in the global financial crisis.
20:52 >> Bitcoin has gone through that every 18
20:54 months for a decade. Yep.
20:55 >> Right. So you just see this stuff over
20:57 and over. Now, the framework that I've
20:59 used for Bitcoin, why does it go up and
21:01 then crash, then go up and crash? It's
21:03 very similar to like a mobile app. So,
21:05 if I created a mobile app with you, we
21:06 want to go get users. We'd run a
21:07 marketing campaign. 100 people come in
21:09 and sign up. Well, some portion of those
21:11 people are not going to stay. They're
21:13 going to churn. So, let's say that 30
21:14 turn out. We're left with a net gain of
21:16 70 people. We run another marketing
21:18 campaign. Another 100 people come in,
21:20 but 30 of those people turn out. Well,
21:21 now we have 140 people who are left,
21:23 right? And you keep doing this. And
21:25 that's basically what we've seen in
21:26 Bitcoin is you get these big run-ups in
21:28 price, a bunch of people pile in, you
21:30 get it kind of bleeds out, some people
21:31 leave, but you've converted new people.
21:34 AI is starting to do this now. And I
21:36 think that's where you see even when you
21:37 get these big moves and there's some
21:39 draw down, some portion of those people
21:41 are not leaving, whether it's passive
21:42 indexing, whether it's just, you know,
21:44 longerterm believers, etc. We are almost
21:47 driving more capital into these
21:49 businesses and they're setting new
21:51 floors even if there's volatility in it.
21:53 And to me that becomes really
21:54 interesting because as the companies get
21:56 bigger and bigger, the dollars being
21:58 invested are getting bigger, but also
22:00 the productivity is accelerating. Right?
22:01 You've talked about Eli Liy and a number
22:03 of these companies where they're just
22:04 they're good capital allocators and
22:06 they're able to accelerate.
22:08 >> And so actually in a weird way, the
22:10 bubbles are necessary in order for us
22:13 not only to build out the
22:14 infrastructure, but it's also necessary
22:16 to get capital to appreciate for the
22:20 investor as well. Right.
22:22 >> Yeah. And and
22:24 so the the worst part about this, we
22:26 we're now at a point where when we say
22:29 AI, let's let's use forever Jensen
22:32 Snuang's five layer cake. And let's just
22:34 say that okay, you got the chips, the
22:35 energy, the infrastructure, the models,
22:37 and the applications.
22:40 The only thing that's been monetized or
22:42 the only thing making money are the
22:44 chips, the energy, and the
22:46 infrastructure.
22:48 There's a problem with that eventually.
22:50 um this is all about the buildout in
22:52 preparation for it and like I said you
22:55 eventually do have to get the revenues.
22:57 There was an interesting interview with
22:59 um the head of the Norwegian um
23:02 sovereign wealth fund and he interviewed
23:04 I don't know the name of the CEO of IBM
23:06 but the IBM CEO and the IBM CEO who's
23:10 obviously
23:12 been involved with AI as long as anyone.
23:13 I mean Watson was before Google was even
23:16 a company. Um he basically said when you
23:20 do the math and he and he went through
23:22 it logically he's like a data center now
23:25 costs and so people hear this in the
23:27 course of basically 9 months a data
23:30 center for 1 gawatt has gone from 50
23:32 billion he was saying it's 60 to 80 and
23:35 Jensen Yuang said in Computex this
23:37 weekend it'll very quickly be 80 to 100
23:41 billion. So you're talking about massive
23:43 inflation in building this stuff. That's
23:45 how bad the bottleneck situation is. And
23:47 it just shows that okay, how are we
23:49 going to keep building this smart people
23:51 are going to solve this. But what the
23:52 guy said is at these costs for the
23:54 gigawatts for they're not going to be
23:57 able to make the revenues. Now I have
24:00 said repeatedly this is not a bubble.
24:02 But what I do agree with is that DeepS
24:06 is in direct competition with the model
24:08 component of this. I'm not sure a
24:10 generalist model anymore you're going to
24:12 be able to make the money. I don't think
24:13 the adoption is going to happen on the
24:14 enterprise side. You brought up Eli Liy.
24:17 The reason I believe Eli Liy, and you
24:20 can mark this down, we can go back to
24:21 see it has a chance to be the largest
24:24 company in the world and the number one
24:27 AI company in the world within 5 years
24:30 is because they're building a
24:33 specialized model. And I think
24:35 eventually people have to realize that
24:36 they have their own data center with a
24:38 thousand GPUs with all of the data that
24:40 Eli Liy has had. There's a hundred and
24:43 what is it 150 year old company all the
24:46 failures all the successes all of that
24:48 data actually matters I've joked before
24:49 that I don't know if an asset management
24:51 company's data is as valuable as they
24:52 think it is but I know that all of these
24:55 trials and things they started from some
24:57 intelligence place and if you combine
24:58 all this stuff and you combine it with
24:59 Alphafold where they have a partnership
25:01 with Isomorph if you combine it with
25:02 their Nvidia co-inovation lab if you
25:05 combine it with toune lab which is their
25:08 Google X which means they allow people
25:10 to use their data center effectively and
25:13 the only thing they get is the data like
25:16 they get the access to what's going on.
25:18 They are creating an innovation hub of
25:20 using data all for human software. So if
25:22 I think about who's going to get the
25:24 revenues well if a drug company can make
25:26 their entire process of getting the FDA
25:29 approval efficient and at the same time
25:31 they can benefit by selling better drugs
25:33 well they're getting revenue directly.
25:35 That's an easy one for me to understand.
25:37 The other ones I don't understand. So, I
25:39 think people have to realize that in
25:40 this five layer cake, we're kind of at
25:43 the point where every dollar that's
25:44 generating margins in the S&P 500 is
25:47 commodity related that has inflation.
25:49 Until we start seeing the application, I
25:51 think what the IBM CEO said on this,
25:53 people should go listen to. I don't know
25:55 if they're going to be able to get the
25:56 revenues in as quickly as they need it.
25:58 And that's the issue is if you have
26:00 bottlenecks and you're spending all this
26:01 money, you eventually need to get the
26:03 revenues. And we've seen what Anthropics
26:05 ARR looks like. The question is if that
26:07 slows for even a month, what are people
26:11 going to do? You've been involved in
26:12 this a long time. If a company is
26:13 growing rapidly and it's parabolic, if
26:15 they tweak a little bit, think about
26:17 what happened to OpenAI over the course
26:19 of the last year.
26:19 >> Oh, I was going to say OpenAI showed us
26:21 what what happens there. So, I want to
26:23 talk about Eli Lilly a little bit more
26:24 in a second, but um on this general
26:25 versus specialized workflow, um we have
26:27 direct experience with this, right?
26:28 We're building CFO Sylvia. see the
26:30 actual specialized workflows and I'll
26:32 tell you that there are um and I've been
26:34 talking about this for a couple months
26:35 now and I think finally it is cracking
26:36 into the mainstream conversation the
26:38 single most important thing that I see
26:40 happening in the AI industry is that the
26:42 general purpose models were the default
26:44 no one knew how to build specialized
26:45 workflows or any of this stuff and so
26:47 open AI came out anthropic started to
26:49 push claw everyone basically kind of
26:51 mandate from heaven to their teams go
26:53 use AI and people listened and they went
26:56 and we're now seeing reports of whether
26:57 it's Amazon or JP Morgan or Uber They're
27:00 all reporting that they blew through
27:01 their token budgets, you know, in a
27:02 single quarter for the entire year,
27:04 stuff like that.
27:05 >> But people are starting to question, are
27:07 we getting the value for what we're
27:09 spending?
27:10 >> And they are as AI pilled as they come,
27:13 but what they're trying to connect it
27:14 back to is the ROI. And so what we saw
27:17 at CFO Sylvia is that we actually gave
27:21 token consumption to the user. So the
27:23 user was in charge of how much times
27:25 they queried, etc. So you essentially
27:27 could think of that as you have uncapped
27:28 upside for usage of the tokens but we as
27:32 a company had uncapped expenses because
27:34 as much as the users want to use it. So
27:36 then that forced us if we want to keep
27:37 cost under control to go look at how do
27:39 you efficiently consume tokens.
27:41 >> Yep.
27:42 >> We have seen a significant reduction in
27:44 the number of tokens that are used on a
27:46 per query basis for certain things in
27:47 the back end. All this kind of stuff
27:49 >> as we went through that process I
27:51 started talking to many of my friends
27:52 who run companies or have implemented
27:54 some of this stuff. They're all going
27:56 through the exact same thing. Y they're
27:57 all trying to figure out if I'm spending
27:59 hundreds of thousands or millions of
28:01 dollars per year using some sort of AI
28:04 system, how do I get the same output but
28:06 get a cheaper bill? It's human nature.
28:08 It's corporate incentive. And so now
28:10 what I'm starting to see is all of these
28:12 companies are becoming successful at
28:14 doing it and they're all sharing some of
28:15 the best practices and and the engineers
28:17 are all talking to each other. So in a
28:19 weird way it makes Anthropic's revenue
28:21 growth even more impressive that they
28:23 are growing at the rate that they're
28:24 going at the same time that every single
28:25 one of their customers is trying to
28:26 become more efficient using their
28:28 service right so you have like a per
28:29 customer per token revenue basis is
28:32 coming down but your overall revenue is
28:34 growing so rapidly because the demand is
28:36 just you know insatiable so when I look
28:38 at that it does split the world into
28:41 general purpose versus specialized
28:42 workflow I think that finance I think
28:45 that healthcare I think there's very
28:47 specific areas where it's going to be
28:48 incredibly difficult. And I think that
28:50 the general purpose models have waved
28:52 the white flag. They're admitting it
28:54 because what are they doing? They're
28:55 creating JVS. They're creating internal
28:57 teams. And they're basically saying, "We
28:59 need a biotech team. We need a team
29:01 that's going to go and we're going to
29:02 partner with a bunch of PE firms and go
29:04 do accounting rollups or whatever. And
29:06 they're essentially saying that their
29:08 general purpose models are not going to
29:09 be able to compete on a specialized
29:11 basis. And so a company like Eli Liy
29:13 that has a data advantage, has technical
29:14 capabilities, they've got the
29:16 infrastructure, it's not hard to see
29:17 them beating whatever general purpose
29:20 models are out there for their specific
29:21 use case, right?
29:23 >> Yes. And everything you said gets tied
29:25 up into the same thing. So
29:26 philanthropic, the cost of building the
29:28 ability of providing the tokens is going
29:30 up dramatically. So they have to raise
29:31 the cost. So users who are very smart
29:34 are like, "Wait, wait, wait, wait. I I
29:36 I'm not paying for this." So then you
29:38 start figuring out ways to not pay for
29:39 it. So Davin Baker on an interview about
29:42 a year ago, sorry, about six months ago,
29:46 it's amazing how fast this is. He
29:47 literally said the bearish argument for
29:51 all of the model providers is eventually
29:53 going to be the edge.
29:56 So the problem with the edge is the edge
29:58 is coming sooner than what people think.
30:00 The data center buildout and the the
30:02 borrowing of money and the building of
30:04 this stuff. This is why I keep saying
30:06 there is risk for every one of them.
30:08 when you when we talk about enthropic
30:10 and we're like it's 44 it's not 44
30:12 billion that's the ARR so like I want to
30:15 make sure people realize going like this
30:19 for 3 months does not ensure you'll be
30:21 doing that for another 3 years and
30:23 there's a lot of factors and you're
30:24 naming if you go through all the factors
30:25 you're saying so let me get their cost
30:27 of providing that's going higher the the
30:31 clients using it are like wait my
30:33 budgets are too high this is too
30:35 expensive I got to figure ways to do it
30:36 oh magically I don't need as any tokens.
30:39 Anthropic doesn't care cuz they have a
30:40 wait list for tokens. So, they're still
30:42 growing. But the issue is you're still
30:44 playing with this game of like, well, we
30:46 need more compute and they're out there
30:48 racing to Colossus and to Google and
30:50 trying to get all this stuff. It just
30:52 seems I very clear to me that there's a
30:55 problem with bottlenecks and shortages
30:57 and oh by the way, the straight of
30:58 Hormuz is still shut. And I can't say
31:00 this loud enough. The one thing about
31:02 prediction markets that people need to
31:03 pay attention to when you hear all these
31:05 things of like the straight will be
31:07 reopened by whatever. If you believe
31:08 that then go bet on couch sheet because
31:11 right now for the straight to completely
31:13 reopen to normal by right before the
31:17 midterms is less than 50%. So we're
31:20 getting to the point where all of these
31:22 bottlenecks are building. And as someone
31:24 who's a macro person who's focused on
31:26 the situation of bottlenecks, I want to
31:29 focus on what Eli Liy is doing because
31:31 you know what? They don't depend on
31:33 tokens. They spent the money on a
31:36 thousand black wells to build a data
31:40 center to be able to take their data.
31:43 And so you have to think real hard about
31:45 why do they have an advantage? Because
31:47 they are printing money and they can
31:50 build their own. And so for companies
31:51 like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs,
31:53 they're going to have to make a choice
31:54 at some point. Do I want to pay
31:56 anthropic or is this a way to get
31:58 started on this because they were
31:59 nowhere seven months ago? And that's
32:01 what I think is happening. There's a
32:02 combination of hoarding on the hardware
32:04 side. There's FOMO on both the model
32:07 side, but also on the enterprise side
32:10 because Goldman doesn't want to fall
32:11 behind Morgan, doesn't want to fall
32:12 behind Bank of America or JP Morgan. So
32:14 they all have to start spending money
32:16 because they're like, "We have to do
32:17 something on this. Oh my gosh, Opus and
32:19 Claude make it easier than OpenAI. Let's
32:21 get rid of ChatgBT. But chat GPT
32:23 enterprise was the biggest thing a year
32:25 ago. So I think people are
32:27 overestimating this and that's why the
32:28 IBM interview is so important to me.
32:30 >> I recently saw uh one person uh online
32:34 say that they have completely uh
32:36 eradicated the use of cloud internally
32:38 and they've gone to Deep Seek V4.
32:40 >> Yep. and they believe that not only is
32:42 it saving them a lot of money, but they
32:44 also think that it is a better
32:45 performance in terms of accuracy,
32:47 latency, etc. Now, it will be very
32:50 interesting to watch over the next 30 to
32:51 60 days if more people do not start
32:54 saying as part of this, hey, what are we
32:56 getting for the token, you know, bill
32:57 that we're receiving? Can I get away
33:00 with using an open source model that
33:01 maybe we fine-tune a little bit
33:03 >> and get 90% maybe even better
33:05 performance than what I'm getting here
33:07 with Claude? Now, I actually think that
33:10 this is a PI expanding exercise and so
33:14 Anthropic is going to continue to do
33:15 well. OpenAI will continue to do well. I
33:17 think XAI is very underrated in terms of
33:20 their ability to kind of come out of
33:21 nowhere and and start to get adoption.
33:23 Um, I also think that whether it's Eli
33:26 Liy, Revolute is a business that here in
33:28 the United States people don't really
33:29 talk about a lot, but it is kind of the
33:31 Robin Hood of Europe. They probably
33:32 wouldn't like that term, but but just
33:34 think of them that way. Is a retail
33:35 brokerage. they've built their own model
33:37 and they've used their own data to be
33:39 able to do it. And so you go and you
33:40 look at this and you say at the end of
33:42 the day what people are always going to
33:43 be incentivized to do is control as much
33:45 of the stack as possible.
33:46 >> Mh.
33:46 >> And if you have a model whether it
33:49 started as open source that you
33:50 fine-tuned and you trained or you were
33:53 able to actually go and do it probably
33:54 similar to what Eli Liy did, you are
33:56 going to have such a competitive
33:58 advantage. It's no different than why
34:00 are you spending so much money going to
34:01 every college campus trying to find the
34:03 smartest new people. you're looking for
34:04 intelligence, right? Well, what if there
34:06 is synthetic intelligence that is better
34:08 than anybody at any college?
34:10 When I started to think about that, I
34:12 said, "No wonder young people are having
34:15 a hard time trying to find a job."
34:16 >> Mhm.
34:17 >> Because people are saying, "I can go and
34:18 I can get this same intelligence in a
34:20 different way. I don't have to do
34:21 recruiting. I don't have to do all this
34:22 stuff." Now, with that said, the young
34:24 people are getting smart and what are
34:26 they doing? They're learning how to use
34:27 the tools. Mhm.
34:28 >> And so you get this ever moving dynamic
34:30 environment where everyone is trying to
34:32 like take a snapshot of the market and
34:34 they want everything to be black and
34:35 white. Anthropic is winning, open eye is
34:38 losing. Closed source versus open
34:40 source. Young people can't find a job.
34:42 Eli Liy is screwed, right? Like whatever
34:44 the snapshot in time is, people start to
34:46 extrapolate these kind of hardened
34:48 thoughts. And my conclusion over the
34:50 last couple weeks is the single most
34:51 important thing you can do right now is
34:53 to remain with incredible flexibility
34:55 mentally because it is changing very
34:58 quickly and if you try to take that
35:00 static snapshot you are going to be
35:01 wrong 3 weeks later and so you've got to
35:04 stay informed. You've got to continue to
35:05 update kind of your mental models here
35:06 and if you do that that's the best way
35:08 to kind of navigate all this.
35:09 >> Yeah. The only thing I would add and and
35:11 I don't know if you felt this and we
35:12 didn't talk about it but um
35:16 the LLMs are now commoditized and what I
35:19 mean by commoditized the price is not
35:20 zero but the difference between
35:24 and I won't say all of them but I will
35:26 say Claude and Chat GPT
35:31 they're indistinguishable to me in terms
35:33 of now being able to use them. And I got
35:35 into a conversation with someone we both
35:37 know this week who had just gotten off a
35:39 plane and mentioned something they did
35:42 and I said, "Oh, I I don't really use
35:45 Claude as much." And I was the person
35:47 that said, "You really have to use
35:48 Claude, not ChatgPT." So people are
35:50 starting to ask me like, "Are you using
35:52 Codeex and Chat GPT?" And I'm like,
35:54 "Yeah, that's my model. That's it now."
35:56 Now I'm using both of them. But the
35:59 reason I say they're commoditized is
36:01 when you interview someone and this is
36:03 the easiest way for for we've both been
36:05 in the seat. Let's assume that you had
36:08 four piece two pieces of information for
36:10 each of them. Their grades in school,
36:11 they both went to the exact same
36:12 college. They both finished with perfect
36:14 scores. Their SATs exactly the same and
36:18 their IQ exactly the same. Now, you're
36:21 going to pick the person not based on
36:23 that. then you're going to pick it based
36:25 on the nuances that match with you, what
36:28 you're looking for, cuz they're not
36:29 going to be the same person. They might
36:31 have exactly the same scores on
36:33 everything, which is where I believe the
36:34 LLMs are now, at least for Chat GBT and
36:37 Claude. Now, maybe Claude is slightly
36:39 better at coding, but I'm not really
36:41 sure about that anymore either. I'm
36:42 building stuff in codeex every day. And
36:44 I'm working on a very long project, the
36:46 longest one I've ever worked on, and I'm
36:48 doing it in cursor and codecs.
36:51 I I'm I'm just going back and forth
36:53 between the two and it's I'm doing
36:55 because this one is something for the
36:57 subscribers that to me is really cool
36:59 and it it it's breaking it's creating a
37:01 new structure in terms of in terms of
37:02 the way I look at the market but I it's
37:05 indistinguishable. So the reason I've
37:06 chose chatbt 5.5 is because it is the
37:10 better brainstorming partner for me and
37:12 when I meet intelligent people and I
37:15 love to meet someone who can always puts
37:19 things in my head that I hadn't thought
37:20 about. They could speak for an hour and
37:23 only two things enter but those two
37:24 jewels are worth so much to me. Chad GBT
37:27 does it all the time. Claude almost
37:29 never does it for me anymore. And when I
37:31 say never it may sound like an
37:32 exaggeration but for me it's not. I just
37:35 believe that the the critical things
37:38 that make my brain go, "Oh my gosh,"
37:40 happen more in GPT 5.5 and it's not a
37:44 reflection of the model's abilities.
37:46 It's a reflection of how it responds to
37:48 me and can almost feel what I'm looking
37:50 for better than Claude. It said better
37:52 at anticipating what Jordy wants and I
37:54 that's why I've migrated back towards
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40:30 Usually people see us come on here and
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40:38 we talk about what we're going to uh to
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40:57 >> Yes.
40:58 >> And then there are the bros scientists.
41:00 The bros scientists have been very right
41:03 for a long time. They are the ones who
41:06 were talking about everyone should be
41:07 taking creatine. They were the ones who
41:09 were talking about you know saunas and
41:11 cold plunges and you know all of that
41:13 type of stuff. They have been on the
41:15 peptide train for a while now and it
41:18 feels like the rest of the world is now
41:21 saying, "Oh, peptides, that's
41:23 interesting." And the bro scientists are
41:24 saying, you know, "Come into the warm
41:26 water. We've been here a while."
41:27 >> Y
41:28 >> what is a peptide? Why is it the API key
41:31 for the human body?
41:33 >> So to I I want to take a step back from
41:36 just answering this for people at this
41:38 point. Um
41:41 you made a comment which I agree with
41:43 and this is the way Wall Street has been
41:45 separated. Um people who are not
41:46 scientists never enter the biotech and
41:50 pharma world as an investor. Uh and
41:52 because you can't understand the science
41:55 but for some reason we all became
41:57 experts at technology
41:59 and we think like we know exactly what
42:02 goes on in a computer and Moore's law
42:04 and everything else. And the reason we
42:06 became experts at it is because that was
42:08 the way we all made money. So we all own
42:10 Nvidia. We all go through this. So what
42:12 I know I know what a GPU is.
42:15 >> I I I the funny thing is why would
42:18 people know what an API key is? So an
42:22 API key and a peptide are basically ways
42:25 to enter into something with a receptor.
42:29 Meaning I want to do this. I want to
42:31 take my data from this software that I
42:34 pay for. I use my a API key. So, it's a
42:37 door into something. So, the easiest way
42:40 to do this is for people to learn that
42:42 GLP1s
42:44 are peptides. Peptides are growing
42:47 exponentially. So, if you had Chris
42:49 Camilo sitting across from you and he
42:50 was doing all his Tik Tok analysis at
42:52 nighttime and we said, "Are peptides
42:54 big?" He'd be like, "Peptides are huge.
42:56 How do I make money on peptides?" Like,
42:58 it was a lot of private companies. But
43:00 the reality is when you start spending
43:02 time well GLP1 is the king of peptides
43:05 and its growth is enormous but it's only
43:08 serving a very small portion. I can't
43:12 think of a scenario where whatever your
43:14 view is of GLP1s.
43:16 Peptides is now kind of what they've
43:18 been replaced with. GLP1s are a little
43:20 scary to people but peptides everyone
43:22 seems to be migrating towards because
43:24 now they're on every podcast. Now
43:25 everyone's talking about Google Trends.
43:27 It's going through the roof. I can't go
43:28 in any kind of um setting without
43:31 hearing it. I worked out today. The
43:33 person at the desk, I know what her job
43:35 is and she's a health coach. She deals
43:38 with nutrition.
43:40 Before I could finish saying peptide and
43:42 I said, "What percentage of the people
43:44 that you have as clients every single
43:46 day come into you and talk about PEP?"
43:48 And she went, "Everybody." And she said,
43:50 "This is never ending." And she went,
43:52 "If you're talking about GLP1s, more
43:54 than 50% of my clients are on GLP1." Now
43:57 again, this is Manhattan.
43:58 >> Are they doing it for weight loss or are
44:01 they doing it for other non-weight loss
44:03 reasons?
44:04 >> At this point, the majority of them are
44:06 for weight loss. They're not. But she
44:08 does have a lot of diabetic clients and
44:10 she does have a lot of pre-diabetic
44:11 clients. So I don't want to be it's
44:12 people have money that can afford to pay
44:14 for these things cuz they're there, but
44:16 they're growing rapidly. The thing is
44:19 what Eli Lily and the reason this is so
44:21 important. So if the decade of 2009 to
44:25 2020 was about the app store and API
44:29 keys, you could argue that API keys were
44:31 the key to all of the money made by the
44:33 Mag 7. I believe the pharma industry
44:36 with peptides has locked into something
44:39 where again whether it's gene editing,
44:42 any way you want to go, we're getting to
44:43 the software side of the body. We're
44:46 actually getting to the point of
44:47 understanding this does this to to
44:49 someone. So Eli Liy has data that is
44:52 unexplained for them. And if you listen
44:53 to David Ricks, he'll say, "We knew it
44:57 was losing weight. We knew it was
44:58 helping with diabetes. What we didn't
45:00 understand is why is addiction going
45:02 down? Why is this going down? They're
45:04 getting to the part and they've been
45:05 doing metabolic metabolic disease
45:08 focused for 100 years. So now we're
45:11 getting to the point of actually getting
45:13 to the root cause of problems as opposed
45:15 to the treatment of problems. And if you
45:16 get to the root cause of problems
45:18 through peptides and through receptors,
45:20 you're now getting into the point where
45:21 you're putting an API key into the human
45:23 body to deal with something. This is the
45:26 beginning of a massive trend because if
45:28 it wasn't for AI, in my opinion, we're
45:31 still kind of guessing and going through
45:33 a long process, but AI helps speed up
45:35 the process. I'll give you something we
45:37 didn't talk about. So, you know, there's
45:39 different phases of trials. So very
45:42 recently, I think in the last month,
45:44 maybe it was two months, Eli Lilly
45:45 stopped
45:47 disclosing phase one trials they're
45:49 working on, which is when they're
45:50 actually using human beings for this.
45:52 They won't disclose it anymore. Why
45:54 wouldn't you disclose it anymore? Well,
45:56 because it's much easier to catch up to
45:58 IP if you have AI. If you're doing this
46:02 and disclosing it, it was for investors
46:03 because they want investors to be
46:05 focused on it. Well, now what they're
46:06 worried about is competition.
46:07 Competition is about AI. So what we're
46:09 watching in front of our face is human
46:11 software. The TAM market for obesity in
46:15 the in the world is between 200 and $300
46:18 billion.
46:20 That's a big TAM and it's very little of
46:23 it right now is being accessed because
46:25 of the cost of this and the fact that
46:26 you can't get insurance. But if you find
46:28 ways to make them and what they're
46:30 working on is one treatment as opposed
46:31 to every single month pill not shot.
46:35 like we watch all this stuff and that's
46:36 what they're focused on and they are
46:38 buying companies almost every single
46:40 week and in some weeks they're buying
46:41 multiple companies but if you go through
46:43 they're all connected to the parts of
46:47 the diabetes side that GLP1s that
46:50 they've seen some kind of impact whether
46:51 it's kidneys whether it's cancers
46:53 whether it's all this you're talking to
46:54 someone who didn't know any of this 6
46:56 months ago but I wrote a paper in
46:58 October when I get fixated on something
47:00 I keep going and the reason I'm talking
47:02 about it today people is because I
47:04 believe we are seeing signs of a top in
47:07 hardware. Not that they're going to go
47:09 down and not that this is a crash, but
47:10 you look for rotations to where the
47:12 market narrative shifts. And I think the
47:14 market narrative is shifting from the
47:16 chips, infrastructure, energy side of
47:19 the cake and it's moving up to the
47:21 application side and I think the best
47:23 application for this is going to be on
47:25 the human software side. So, one of the
47:26 aspects that uh I became very interested
47:28 in is the second I heard the GLP1s could
47:31 help with addiction. And the data point
47:34 that really hammered it home was that
47:36 some of the hedge funds on Wall Street
47:38 were requiring people to not take GOP1
47:41 >> because it took away some of the
47:42 risk-taking genes, you know, the
47:43 risk-taking uh component
47:45 >> was everyone is looking at GOPs as a
47:49 physical body weight loss, you know,
47:52 etc. impact.
47:54 What happens when this hits the drug and
47:56 alcohol addiction market?
47:58 >> I don't know where people are yet in
48:00 terms of actually being able to do that
48:01 from a a pure medical standpoint. Will
48:03 insurance dollars be able to be used,
48:05 etc. But if you're telling me that there
48:08 is now something that can be injected
48:10 that will help solve that problem and it
48:13 maybe is matched with recovery centers
48:16 or rehab or whatever, that is a very big
48:20 market. That is a market that not only
48:22 would have a profound positive impact on
48:24 society, but there will be very big
48:26 businesses built there. And so I think
48:28 that to me is what's interesting here is
48:29 you're talking about this like API key
48:31 for the human body, but it seems like a
48:34 lot of these peptides, they're not just
48:36 single application. We're starting to
48:39 see, okay, it can do weight loss, it can
48:40 do addiction, it can do what it's one
48:43 single drug, right, or peptide. Mhm.
48:46 >> When we look at the cholesterol shot, my
48:49 guess is it does other things as well,
48:51 right? And has certain impacts on
48:52 people's body. And so as you see this
48:55 kind of roll out here, it feels like we
48:58 understand maybe the first order impact,
49:00 but we yet do not understand what else
49:03 can these things do. And so it's a
49:05 perfect example of a market that
49:07 continues to expand as we better
49:09 understand the technology. As an
49:11 investor, what else do you want? It's
49:12 already a big TAM. And oh by the way,
49:14 you know, it's kind of like the SpaceX
49:16 uh TAM slide, you know, we have rocket
49:19 launch, we have Starlink, enterprise AI.
49:23 >> Yeah.
49:23 >> Right. Same thing's going to happen here
49:25 in healthcare, right?
49:27 >> Yeah. And for people, I mean, we're
49:28 we're we're almost at 20% of uh personal
49:32 expenditures in the country each year
49:34 are healthcare. We're getting close to
49:36 that. Um it grows every single year
49:38 because of demographics and because of
49:39 the health of the country. So we all
49:41 realize it's a huge market. Um, I don't
49:43 think people fully grasp how big the
49:45 market is, but forget housing, forget
49:47 all this stuff like health expenditures
49:49 are what you want to focus your
49:50 attention on. So, if you can get a piece
49:51 of that pie, it's great. Second thing,
49:53 when when you talked about addiction, I
49:56 people hear the word side effect and
49:59 they think it's something negative.
50:01 Well, these side effects of addictions
50:04 going down, all these are just one of
50:06 the things that are coming that they can
50:08 now go study. So I believe what Eli Liy
50:11 has figured out is side effects now
50:13 become something very useful to go
50:14 investigate as to why this is having an
50:16 impact. This is different than spending
50:18 an enormous amount of years to get a
50:20 drug that treats something as opposed to
50:22 a peptide which is there to make the
50:25 body act differently. And that's the
50:27 thing people have to realize is if they
50:28 go spend the time and for everyone
50:30 listening I I did this on my weekly
50:32 video. I highly recommend listening to
50:34 an interview on YouTube with David
50:36 Ricks, the CEO of Eli Liy and Jensen
50:39 Yuang. They're partners.
50:42 Eli Liy is partners with Nvidia. That
50:44 should be enough for people to be
50:45 interested because he's had a pretty
50:46 high hit ratio. But if you listen to the
50:48 interview, you'll learn more about why
50:50 GLP1s are so important and why peptides
50:52 are so important and you'll get a sense
50:54 as to where Eli Liy is going with this.
50:57 So I think as everyone thinks about this
50:58 more and they get through how big the
51:00 market can be, how it'll go, they're
51:01 going to get back to one other important
51:02 issue. I've never worried about the debt
51:04 of the country despite all the doom and
51:06 gloom that's out there because the
51:07 household net worth of the country is
51:09 five times the size of the debt of the
51:11 country. So yes, the government has a
51:13 bad balance sheet, but the household
51:15 balance sheet is phenomenal. But
51:17 entitlements are a major issue that are
51:19 going to be an issue. But what makes up
51:20 the bulk of entitlements when you get
51:22 through Medicare and Medicaid and you're
51:24 dealing again with the health of the
51:25 country? If we're going to get to the
51:27 point with peptides, but also with gene
51:29 editing, with uh mRNA, e every single
51:32 thing, if we're going to get to the
51:34 point where people are going to die
51:36 healthy as opposed to die sick, that has
51:40 a huge impact on the entitlement issue.
51:42 And that's where again, I don't think
51:43 looking out 5 years, people should think
51:45 that any business that they've invested
51:47 in is safe. I don't think they should
51:48 think that they're going to die. The
51:50 reason I spend so much time trying to be
51:52 healthy today is because I'm not sure
51:54 they're going to be able to reverse my
51:55 age. So, I want to stay the same age for
51:56 as long as I can or at least have the
51:58 delta be be shrinking. So, I think the
52:00 healthc care side is something people
52:01 need to think more about. Watch Eli Liy
52:04 stock just because number one, it is a
52:06 trillion dollar company. Number two,
52:08 believe it or not, it's been kind of
52:09 consolidating to a very high degree for
52:11 the last 18 months. So, you have no clue
52:15 as to what the impact of GLP1s are. And
52:17 neither did I until this past week.
52:20 Victoria Secret
52:22 put their earnings out there. Yep. The
52:24 stock was up 47%
52:26 earlier this week. They reported 15%
52:29 sales growth in uh I think Q1
52:34 directly attributable or in a large part
52:37 to GLP1's people are losing weight.
52:40 Bedroom fashion is back I guess.
52:42 >> Yeah.
52:43 >> The second order effects here on some of
52:45 these businesses. Everyone was talking
52:47 about our fast food company's going to
52:48 come under pressure
52:50 >> but there's the positive stories as
52:51 well. And so it does feel like this is
52:53 going to kind of infiltrate out into the
52:56 US economy in a bunch of ways that maybe
52:58 we didn't predict before.
53:00 >> Yeah. And and I think again the main
53:01 point here for people to think about is
53:03 this is what limited access. So I
53:06 remember when I first wrote something
53:07 about GLP1s which was probably four
53:09 years ago now and it was when originally
53:13 it was becoming kind of a big theme
53:15 where everyone was talking about but it
53:16 was when it was starting to impact the
53:17 consumer staples companies. And I
53:19 remember people asked me the question
53:21 because people will say what do you
53:22 think and doctors were already telling
53:24 me this is like a miracle drug and most
53:27 people thought it was bad and the
53:30 doctors some of which were family
53:32 members were like Jordy you have to
53:34 understand for every 10 people that I
53:37 take care of seven of them can't go on
53:39 trips to Disney they can't do things
53:41 with their family this is changing their
53:43 ability to live their life and are there
53:45 side effects yes but they're going to
53:48 live a healthier life going forward. So,
53:50 what you're talking about now is four
53:51 years later, the technologies have
53:53 gotten better. They're still getting
53:55 better. The weight loss percentage is
53:57 getting higher. The muscle mass loss is
53:59 going down. The ability for people to
54:01 take these less often and not in shot
54:04 form is increasing. And it's only going
54:06 to get better. So, a lot of the things,
54:08 and again, I'm writing a paper on this
54:10 on Eli Liy. I can't possibly describe to
54:12 you all of the strategic purchases
54:15 they've made of other companies. So if
54:17 you go back to what was happening with
54:20 the Mag 7, what were they doing? Buying
54:22 Instagram, buy like they were buying
54:26 companies. They were buying API keys. So
54:28 what's Eli Lily doing? They're making so
54:31 much money from this one drug that
54:33 they're taking the cash to build a data
54:36 center to like this is the greatest
54:39 story you could ever want to hear. And
54:41 like I said, Toune Lab is basically
54:43 Google X. Their co-inovation lab out in
54:46 Silicon Valley with Nvidia. Co-inovation
54:49 lab with Nvidia is to speed up health
54:52 and it's to attract talent from Stanford
54:54 and the people that are graduating out
54:56 there to make sure that when they have a
54:57 choice and they're like, "Do I want to
54:58 go work for a software company or do I
55:00 want to work for a human software
55:02 company?" All of this stuff is happening
55:04 and I can already see the supersonic
55:06 tsunami of healthcare is approaching and
55:08 so I think there's going to be more and
55:10 more Victoria Secret stories going
55:12 forward. What are you going to put in
55:13 your video this week?
55:15 >> Uh, there's obviously going to be a lot
55:17 of uh Eli Lillian teasing out some of
55:19 the things that I said here. There's
55:21 going to be a lot on my belief that the
55:23 IPOs that are coming to the market that
55:25 people are underestimating what they
55:27 signal the Google what the 85 billion
55:31 why Berkshire buying it why that says
55:33 something too that a company that's been
55:35 raising cash decides oh we'll take 10
55:37 billion of a company that's up 120%
55:39 year-over-year. a lot of stuff going on
55:42 in the market that I think people need
55:43 to be paying attention to. And again,
55:45 I'm going to say that this is not a
55:46 bubble. The title of my video last week
55:48 is we will crash, which was a play on
55:50 Andrew Ross Sorcin. Um, but the rotation
55:53 to me is going to happen, and I'd be
55:54 focused on companies there. And I I will
55:56 emphasize one other point, too. We
55:58 talked about the human software side.
56:00 I'm not going to emphasize the
56:02 importance of crypto and tokenization on
56:04 the financial guardrails, but that is
56:05 the other software side that if I'm
56:07 right for the second half of the year,
56:10 when if and when Bitcoin breaks through
56:13 the 200 day moving average, if and when,
56:14 maybe it's two years from now, maybe
56:16 it's three years from now, maybe it goes
56:17 to zero before then, I don't know. But
56:19 once it does, I believe we're entering a
56:22 new phase where the software that people
56:24 are choosing is for the human body and
56:26 for the financial guardrails because AI
56:28 agents are both that part of software.
56:32 >> I love it. We have three asks of the
56:34 audience today. Three. I mean, look, you
56:36 know, it's getting to be summertime. We
56:38 got three of them. The first is go
56:40 search on YouTube for Jordy Visser and
56:43 subscribe to his channel so you can
56:44 watch his weekly video. Every Sunday it
56:46 comes out. It's amazing. He has more
56:49 charts than you can ever imagine. It's
56:50 very in uh informative and I think
56:53 you'll learn a lot. The second thing is
56:54 that we want you to go to uh Jordiv
56:56 Visser 22V research. And how many pieces
56:59 are you putting out a week right now?
57:01 >> Uh I'm putting out two pieces a week,
57:05 but then I'm also putting in a bunch of
57:06 models for trading and stuff like that.
57:08 >> This guy writes so much I can't read it
57:09 all. He's getting out of hand here.
57:11 You're going to have to put a speed
57:12 limit on them. Um, so 22V research Jordi
57:15 Visser or if you want to use AI to
57:18 better manage your portfolio, you can go
57:19 to cfosylvia.com.
57:21 You can sign up there for free. So go
57:23 subscribe to Jordy on YouTube. Go listen
57:25 to or uh subscribe to uh 22V research or
57:28 go sign up for cfosilia.com. If you do
57:31 those three things, we'll be happy guys.
57:32 You know, we we don't ask for much
57:34 around here, but those three things will
57:35 be very helpful. And uh we'll see you
57:37 guys next week. See you.