I Just Revealed My Current Portfolio…

[0:00] Everyone who's worried about Bitcoin's
[0:01] lost their mind. I like the fact that
[0:03] the things I own go through these
[0:05] periods where people don't like them. I
[0:07] do not want to own assets that are
[0:09] always in favor. Because if they're
[0:11] always in favor, that means they're
[0:12] popular. If they're popular, that means
[0:14] they're crowded. If they're crowded,
[0:16] that means the return has been arbed
[0:18] away. And so, I actually want things
[0:20] that go in and out of favor because that
[0:23] means that the things that are out of
[0:25] favor likely have a lot more asymmetry
[0:27] to them. they have a lot more potential
[0:28] return in the future and so that
[0:30] volatility is really important. What's
[0:33] going on guys? Today we've got a great
[0:34] conversation with John Pompiano. He
[0:36] interviews me all about Kevin Worsh, the
[0:38] Federal Reserve, inflation expectations,
[0:40] interest rates, the AI capex question,
[0:43] what's going on with the MAG 7, the S&P
[0:45] 500, Bitcoin, we talk about SpaceX, and
[0:47] many, many other things. And I even
[0:49] explain exactly how I think about
[0:51] investing right now in public and
[0:52] private markets. And I talk about some
[0:53] of the investments that I've allocated
[0:54] to in my portfolio. Here's my latest
[0:56] conversation with John Pompiano. All
[0:58] right, John, what's first topic?
[1:00] >> All right, Mag 7 selloff recently. Is
[1:02] this a valuation reset or is this the
[1:04] market kind of rethinking this whole AI
[1:06] trade? Well, I think the big reason why
[1:08] the Mag has been selling off is because
[1:10] uh they're long duration assets. So,
[1:11] they're very sensitive to inflation. And
[1:13] people were very worried about the Iran
[1:15] war, the spiking energy prices, and they
[1:17] thought that inflation was coming. As I
[1:19] have said over and over and over again
[1:21] in 2025, tariffs are not going to be
[1:23] inflationary. The second thing I said is
[1:25] that the Iran war, as long as it was
[1:27] shortsighted, it was not going to be
[1:30] some multi-year thing. Then there was
[1:32] going to be a short-term spike in
[1:33] prices, which we've seen in the energy,
[1:35] but ultimately inflation was not going
[1:37] to be a long-term problem. A huge reason
[1:38] is because there's these deflationary
[1:40] forces that are hitting the US economy.
[1:41] Now, of course, there are going to be
[1:42] people who say, "Oh my god, inflation
[1:44] went up above 3%. It is high. It is
[1:46] high." No, it is not. Right? What people
[1:48] were predicting if you go back and you
[1:49] look is everyone somehow got their brain
[1:51] broken on inflation because they saw it
[1:53] go over 9% and they just thought that
[1:55] happens all the time. There are very few
[1:58] times in your lifetime where inflation
[1:59] is going to go over 9%. If I'm remember
[2:02] correctly, the last time that inflation
[2:03] went over 9% was back in like the 70s.
[2:06] That's before I was born. So my entire
[2:08] lifetime, one time it went over 9%. Now
[2:11] it was horrific. It was very obvious to
[2:13] see that it was going to happen. And if
[2:14] you were paying attention in 2020, we're
[2:16] printing trillions of dollars and
[2:17] putting interest rates at zero. Of
[2:18] course, we were going to get high
[2:19] inflation. But that is a very different
[2:21] manipulation than when you see things
[2:24] like the Iran war or tariffs. And so if
[2:25] you go and you look at the mag 7, people
[2:27] are basically have two big concerns. The
[2:29] first is if there's going to be higher
[2:31] inflation, then you get these
[2:32] longduration assets that are very
[2:34] sensitive to that. Therefore, they sell
[2:35] off. Okay, fine. Get some like multiple
[2:37] compression. The second thing though is
[2:39] that everyone's worried about the AI
[2:41] capex spending and they're saying, "Wait
[2:42] a minute. These companies are plowing
[2:44] tons of money into capex. And if they
[2:46] plow tons of money into capex, that
[2:48] means free cash flow is going to go
[2:49] down. If free cash flow goes down,
[2:51] doesn't that mean the company should be
[2:52] worth less in the future? I'm not going
[2:53] to make as much money from a cash flow
[2:55] perspective. And so ultimately, I think
[2:57] there's two things that going to play
[2:58] out. Inflation is not going to be nearly
[3:00] as big of a problem as people think it's
[3:01] going to be. You're already starting to
[3:03] see this, right? Energy was responsible
[3:05] for 60% of all increase in the inflation
[3:09] number. So it's all energy. That's
[3:11] what's driving these moves when energy
[3:13] prices come back down. Oil now is below
[3:15] 80 bucks. If it goes back to 60 bucks,
[3:17] what do you think is going to happen to
[3:18] inflation? I don't know. I don't know if
[3:20] I'm confident yet enough to call the top
[3:22] of inflation, but we're pretty damn
[3:24] close in my opinion. And so whether it
[3:26] actually already peaked or it's going to
[3:27] peak in, you know, the May or June
[3:28] number or whatever, my guess is that
[3:30] inflation is going to be lower in Q3 and
[3:32] Q4 than it was in Q2. If that's the
[3:35] case, then guess what's going to happen
[3:36] to the multiples on the MAG 7? They're
[3:38] going to expand again. Okay, fine.
[3:40] That's one part of it. Well, what about
[3:42] the AI capex? There's two components to
[3:44] this in my opinion. The first is that
[3:46] the AI capex, the whole thing is
[3:48] predicated on does the demand actually
[3:50] exist that we think is going to exist in
[3:52] the future and will there be an ROI on
[3:55] this capex spending? Well, there will be
[3:56] an ROI if the demand exists, right?
[3:59] Because that means there's going to be
[4:00] someone there to use it. Well, the
[4:02] question of is there going to be the
[4:03] demand? I I don't know. Do you use AI
[4:06] more today than you did a year ago? Of
[4:08] course. So that that was the big
[4:09] narrative that people were talking about
[4:11] though was now the whole media is all
[4:13] talking about hey are we being efficient
[4:15] enough with the AI tokens that we are
[4:17] using and is like the actual energy that
[4:19] we are consuming worth it for our
[4:20] business. If you go back right in May, I
[4:23] think like May 20th or May 22nd,
[4:25] something like that. I started tweeting
[4:26] and saying, I personally was
[4:28] experiencing we're building a product
[4:29] called CFO Sylvia as many people know.
[4:31] And in that product, one of the things
[4:32] that happened is we started to see cost
[4:34] run because the users get to generate
[4:37] the queries, which means that they are
[4:39] basically unlimited exposure to expenses
[4:43] if you are not intelligent about how you
[4:45] manage those tokens. So when you first
[4:47] start building these products, you're
[4:48] trying to make the product work. Then
[4:49] you realize, oh, there's a problem.
[4:51] Token expense. Okay, how do we get more
[4:53] efficient at token expenses? So, some of
[4:54] the examples were uh when people would
[4:56] refresh certain pages, it would hit the
[4:58] model. Like, we don't need to do that.
[4:59] Stop doing that. Okay, that takes down
[5:01] the token usage. The second thing is
[5:03] that there were certain features that
[5:05] were persistently hitting the model
[5:07] every, you know, certain amount of time
[5:09] and servicing information. It was cool,
[5:12] but it was one of the biggest draws on
[5:14] our token usage. So, what do we do?
[5:16] killed the feature and we just said
[5:17] let's see if anyone complains no one
[5:19] complained so we just didn't bring it
[5:21] back right saved a bunch of tokens so
[5:23] like we started to get smarter then we
[5:24] created some architecture changes then
[5:26] we started to look at cash and we
[5:27] started doing all these things when we
[5:30] were doing it I thought it was just a US
[5:31] problem I was like hey we got to solve
[5:33] our own problem then I started to talk
[5:34] to a bunch of CEOs so I went and I
[5:36] talked to friends who run all these
[5:37] companies and they all were saying the
[5:38] same thing like this is crazy we're
[5:40] spending all this money on these tokens
[5:41] I have no clue if I'm getting an ROI off
[5:43] it or not so what did they all do they
[5:45] started to say I want the output with
[5:47] less token usage and so there was a huge
[5:50] shift that's why I started tweeting
[5:51] about it saying this idea of like token
[5:53] maxing or these leaderboards inside
[5:54] these companies this is not going to be
[5:56] where the world ends up we are going to
[5:58] go back to efficiency and effectiveness
[6:00] and measuring ROI and all this stuff now
[6:02] what I find most compelling for open AI
[6:06] anthropic you know Grock any of these uh
[6:08] private companies is that you have your
[6:13] individual customers so CFO Sylvia or
[6:16] any company saying I need to consume
[6:18] less tokens but I need to get the same
[6:19] output right so we're becoming more
[6:21] efficient yet the total adjustable
[6:24] market is growing the adoption of your
[6:25] product is growing so your revenue is
[6:27] still skyhigh even though your
[6:29] individual customers are becoming more
[6:30] efficient with their token usage so to
[6:32] me that is a sign that these people have
[6:33] product market fit the product is going
[6:35] to continue to grow I think they have an
[6:37] incredible business all bite as long as
[6:39] the open source models don't eat their
[6:41] lunch right but for right now these guys
[6:43] are doing a great
[6:44] So then the question becomes okay what
[6:46] is the limiting factor for using this
[6:49] technology power data centers chips
[6:53] right you just go through all these
[6:55] different components and so if you go I
[6:57] just saw a story that there's a company
[7:00] that is shifting their work hours to
[7:02] 1:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.
[7:05] They're asking their employees to work
[7:06] from 1:00 a.m. to 10 a.m. One of the
[7:08] cited reasons is because they believe
[7:10] that the usage of the models from 1:00
[7:12] a.m. 10 a.m. is not only cheaper, but
[7:15] there is less demand on the systems and
[7:17] therefore they also believe that the
[7:19] answers are more accurate during that
[7:21] time frame. Now, I don't expect almost
[7:22] anybody else to go do that. That is a
[7:24] very unique situation, but people are
[7:25] obviously thinking about this stuff and
[7:27] so if there's going to be this
[7:29] persistent demand for this technology,
[7:30] then that means that we don't yet have
[7:32] enough data centers, power, chips, etc.,
[7:35] which means that there's going to be
[7:36] this persistent bid. And so everyone who
[7:38] is worried about the ROI on the capex
[7:40] spend, could we get to a point at some
[7:42] point where we've overbuilt 100% happens
[7:45] in every cycle. It's very hard to have
[7:47] finite control of this stuff. But I
[7:49] don't see that anywhere in the short
[7:50] term. And so I think that demand for the
[7:52] software is through the roof. I think
[7:54] that there is demand for specialized
[7:55] workflows that's through the roof. I
[7:57] think there's demand for data centers,
[7:58] power chips, etc. So much so that we
[8:02] literally have a company that's saying
[8:03] that they're going to go build it in
[8:04] space, the orbital data centers. And so
[8:07] I just think that this whole idea is uh
[8:09] is a little misplaced. Now when it comes
[8:11] to the Mag 7 in particular, one thing
[8:13] that I think that we will start to see
[8:15] is that everyone is going off of a
[8:17] projected capex spending. It's like
[8:20] projected revenue. They didn't book the
[8:23] revenue yet, right? But they also didn't
[8:25] book the capex spending. Now in some
[8:27] cases, they're making commitments or
[8:29] they're projecting what they're going to
[8:31] do, but what we have to get is the
[8:33] actual data. And so I think that it
[8:35] would be very interesting if they say,
[8:37] you know, just take easy numbers. Hey,
[8:38] we're going to spend $10 billion in
[8:40] capex spending over the next two years.
[8:42] But we get the actual numbers and it's
[8:43] like six. Still $6 billion of capex
[8:46] spending from a single company, but it's
[8:48] not 10. It's a 40% less capex spending
[8:51] than what was perceived. And so I just
[8:53] think that people are very caught up
[8:55] right now in, you know, what is
[8:56] inflation going to be? I think that's
[8:57] very mispriced in the market and people
[8:59] don't understand it. Uh but more
[9:00] importantly is this AI capex. I don't
[9:02] believe the numbers that the guidance
[9:04] is. I actually think that they're going
[9:05] to spend less than that. And so again,
[9:07] if you look at the Mag 7, go look at
[9:09] some of the companies. Google has sold
[9:12] off in recent days. Okay, why is that
[9:14] interesting? Google is now cheaper than
[9:16] Apple, but it's growing faster than
[9:19] Apple. So the question becomes why? It
[9:23] is all related to AI capex spending. M
[9:27] and so if you go and you actually look
[9:29] at the information, if you actually go
[9:31] look at the data, I think that there's
[9:33] going to be a very big opportunity to
[9:35] own some of the best businesses in the
[9:36] world at lower valuations and go look at
[9:39] like the PE multiples. Go look at some
[9:40] of these metrics on these businesses.
[9:42] They have come down substantially over
[9:44] the last couple of years and they now
[9:46] are in valuation ranges where I think a
[9:48] lot of investors are say, you know,
[9:50] doesn't seem that crazy to me, right? as
[9:51] long as this AI capex thing isn't a
[9:53] problem like I don't know it becomes
[9:55] pretty attractive to go and allocate to
[9:57] these businesses and so I just think
[9:58] that everyone just needs to calm down
[10:00] stop freaking out and these AI companies
[10:03] they're not going to be some huge
[10:05] implosion they're not going to be zeros
[10:07] in at least in mag 7 and I think that
[10:10] you've got to look and say to yourself
[10:12] is the company that we're looking at
[10:13] today any different than it was 3 weeks
[10:16] ago remember the mag 7 is up 18% in the
[10:20] last year you wouldn't know by reading
[10:21] the headlines. Everyone is trying to
[10:23] convince you that the MAG 7 is over.
[10:25] It's lagging. It's all Yeah, it's
[10:26] lagging year to date 100%.
[10:28] But the S&P is still up 9% for the year.
[10:32] The other 493 stocks are up 13%. The Mag
[10:34] 7 is like flat to slightly down. Okay,
[10:37] so it sounds like the Mag 7 oh does
[10:39] doesn't work anymore. Well, hold on a
[10:41] second. If the Mag 7 is still going to
[10:44] be valuable, shouldn't you become more
[10:46] interested in owning the Mag 7 because
[10:48] all of these other stocks have run and
[10:50] these haven't moved in valuation for six
[10:52] months?
[10:52] >> But the Mag 7 ran first of course it's
[10:55] up huge over the last 5 years, right? So
[10:58] like could it be a cooling off? Could it
[11:00] be a consolidation? There's all these
[11:01] things theories that people have. But
[11:03] the point just being that imagine being
[11:05] able to buy the same business today or
[11:08] I'm sorry to to buy the business today
[11:11] after getting another six months of
[11:13] great data of growth and and
[11:15] profitability etc. but be able to pay
[11:17] the price from 6 months ago. That's
[11:19] pretty much what the Mag 7's letting you
[11:21] do. Now that doesn't mean I'm taking my
[11:23] whole portfolio and going and plowing it
[11:24] into the Mag 7, right? But I think that
[11:26] if you are some sort of value investor,
[11:29] if you're a large cap tech investor, if
[11:31] you're more of an index type person, I
[11:33] would not be worried about the Mag 7. I
[11:34] actually think it's becoming more
[11:36] attractive there. And so I just think
[11:37] that all of the like concerns are really
[11:40] overblown and I think that people are
[11:41] bored. That's what I ultimately think is
[11:43] I think there's a lot of people who are
[11:44] like, we're in this, you know,
[11:46] generational bull market. There's not
[11:48] that much stuff to talk about. So let's
[11:50] start inventing problems. Let's start
[11:51] just pontificating about things that
[11:53] could go wrong. Great. If you want to be
[11:55] a risk manager, sure, you should be
[11:56] thinking about what the possible
[11:57] problems are. But I like to focus on the
[11:59] problems that I know are real problems,
[12:00] right? I don't like thinking about
[12:02] things that, oh, maybe one day if it's
[12:04] raining outside, a squirrel comes out of
[12:05] a hole and a peanut drops from the tree,
[12:08] then that's going to be a problem. I
[12:09] worry about things that are actually
[12:10] problems. And AI capex spending right
[12:12] now is not actually a problem. Could it
[12:14] become one? Maybe. But right now, it
[12:15] ain't a problem. Today's episode is
[12:17] brought to you by Fountain Life.
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[12:24] Unless you look.
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[12:38] It's measured in the time you gain,
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[12:54] Life is so very very precious and I want
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[13:04] limits.
[13:11] >> Your number one job is to educate
[13:13] yourself and Fountain wants to help
[13:15] educate you.
[13:20] Okay. So, if it's not a problem, how do
[13:22] you measure it, right? How do you
[13:23] measure success on this stuff? Is it
[13:25] user growth, revenue growth? Are there
[13:27] uh should you look at margins, free cash
[13:29] flow? Like, how should a business be
[13:30] thinking about are we getting what we
[13:32] want out of this AI capex? Well, forget
[13:34] AI capex for one second. The uh profit
[13:38] margin of the S&P is up 58% since 2011.
[13:43] So in a little more than a decade, the
[13:44] profit margin of these businesses has
[13:46] increased 58%. They're better
[13:49] businesses, so they should be valued
[13:51] higher. And I think people kind of
[13:53] forget this shift from like an analog
[13:55] world into this digital world where
[13:57] these companies have, you know, IP and
[14:00] they're selling digital products and
[14:01] they're providing all this stuff. They
[14:03] are more efficient, more valuable
[14:05] companies. So everyone keeps pointing to
[14:07] like, oh my god, look at the uh
[14:09] historical valuations. Look at Oh,
[14:11] the.com bubble. Like, dude, the.com
[14:14] bubble. You had to print out physical
[14:17] paper from Map Quest to try to find how
[14:18] to get to the other side of the city.
[14:20] What are you talking about? iPhones, AI,
[14:23] right? Like I I went recently to our San
[14:25] Francisco office um at uh for uh Sylvia
[14:28] and I was sitting with some of the
[14:29] engineers and I said, "Hey, can we make
[14:30] a change to something?" And they're just
[14:32] typing in Claude. Right now, they
[14:35] understand, they're engineers, right?
[14:36] They understand how the technical
[14:37] architecture works. They understand how
[14:39] uh a lot of things that get broken, they
[14:41] can go and they can fix it. The
[14:42] databases, the file system, you know,
[14:43] all this stuff, right? But at the end of
[14:45] the day, they got magic. Like they're
[14:47] magicians now. And so trying to compare
[14:50] the valuations in 2026 to valuations
[14:53] from 1992.
[14:55] You you you lost your mind. And that's
[14:57] why I think that the value investors
[14:58] have lagged significantly. I think
[15:00] that's why the tech investors have done
[15:01] so well is you should be aware of
[15:04] history but you cannot simply just point
[15:06] back and say oh my god these things are
[15:08] so overvalued compared to everything
[15:09] else because you've been saying that for
[15:11] 15 years. So, is it that you are going
[15:14] to claim victory if there's a 20%
[15:17] sell-off in the stock market? You're
[15:18] going to say, "Oh, see, it was
[15:19] overvalued, or you going to shut up and
[15:21] get in the car and participate in a
[15:23] generational bull market?" And I think
[15:24] that what you see is the best investors
[15:26] in the world, they're participating.
[15:28] Whether it's Warren Buffett or it is
[15:30] name your favorite investor, they all
[15:32] have realized these are real companies
[15:34] with real profit that are solving real
[15:36] problems that have real growth in front
[15:37] of them. And so, you got to allocate to
[15:40] them. And if you think that you're
[15:41] smarter than the market, you're going to
[15:42] sit on the sidelines and you're going to
[15:43] critique everybody. Great. But the way
[15:45] you measure success is, do the
[15:47] businesses produce profits? Okay. Well,
[15:51] they all are producing a lot of profit.
[15:53] That's why they're so valuable. And
[15:55] people are worried about the free cash
[15:57] flow and all this stuff. The profit
[15:59] margin of the S&P has increased 58%
[16:01] since 2011. Do you think it's going to
[16:03] keep increasing? 100%. So, these
[16:06] businesses are getting better over time.
[16:09] They're aging like fine wine. Well, you
[16:11] probably want to own some of them rather
[16:13] than sit on the sidelines and, you know,
[16:15] pontificate about how smart you are and
[16:17] how stupid Mark Zuckerberg or a Jeff
[16:19] Bezos or Andy Jasse or, you know, uh,
[16:22] Sergey is. Like, give me a break.
[16:26] I like that. That was good. Um, when you
[16:29] think about these Mag 7 companies
[16:31] though, I think most investors are under
[16:33] the uh idea that in 10 years these
[16:36] things are going to be worth more than
[16:37] they are today. So that's what most
[16:38] people are looking at. How do you think
[16:39] about the short term and positioning
[16:42] yourselves from hey these large cap
[16:43] stuffs to you know there's crypto,
[16:45] there's all these other like kind of
[16:46] components of the market. Uh and then
[16:48] we'll kind of bring this back.
[16:49] >> Well, I don't really care about the
[16:51] short term in the sense of uh I don't
[16:53] look at things on day-to-day basis, week
[16:54] to week, even monthtomonth, right? So I
[16:56] like to buy things and say to myself,
[16:57] I'm going to hold this for 10 years. And
[16:59] that's my general uh uh kind of time
[17:01] frame. And over that period of time,
[17:03] I'll I'll find more things. I spend most
[17:05] of my time trying to figure out how do I
[17:06] make more money? how do I go and
[17:07] actually get more capital? So, if I
[17:09] bought something and I like to hold it
[17:10] for a long period of time, then I'll
[17:12] just go make more money and then I'll
[17:13] buy something new if I want to add
[17:14] something to the portfolio. Now, with
[17:16] that said, doesn't mean I don't always
[17:17] hold things for 10 years, right? Every
[17:19] once in a while, if the thesis changes
[17:20] or or something, you know, I'll make
[17:22] some changes in the portfolio, but I
[17:23] don't do a lot of changes. Um, now with
[17:25] that said, if you go and you look,
[17:27] there's basically two ways to invest,
[17:29] right? If you go and I forget the exact
[17:32] number off the top of my head, but I
[17:33] think that the NASDAQ is up over the
[17:36] last decade has delivered something like
[17:38] a 18% return annually. I mean, that is
[17:42] bonkers, right? If the NASDAQ is
[17:45] producing 18 20% whatever it's been
[17:47] compounded for a decade, what's been
[17:50] better than that? There's not many
[17:52] people who could beat that, right? And
[17:54] so you go and you look at it and you say
[17:55] like investing in these like large cap
[17:57] indexes is a great investment strategy.
[18:00] You also could invest in things that are
[18:02] super asymmetric. What I think is the
[18:04] problem is the middle ground. What you
[18:06] don't want to do is you don't want to
[18:07] allocate to midsize companies that have
[18:10] midsize growth trajectory and have
[18:12] midsize return profiles, right? because
[18:15] that middle ground doesn't provide you
[18:17] the safety and security of the large
[18:19] caps where there's tons of cash flow and
[18:21] and a lot of resilience and and uh um
[18:24] kind of toughness to the business and
[18:26] which creates durability. That
[18:27] durability you get paid for, right? And
[18:30] it also doesn't provide you the
[18:31] asymmetry of something that's very small
[18:33] and fragile that could grow into
[18:34] something big. So, I like to operate in
[18:36] the barbells. I don't like to operate in
[18:38] the middle. Now, if I go and I look,
[18:39] Bitcoin and AI to me are the two most
[18:42] interesting technologies in the world.
[18:44] Now, a lot of these two technologies are
[18:46] being infused into tons of other things.
[18:48] So, what you're seeing in finance is
[18:50] people are putting Bitcoin and all kinds
[18:51] of stuff, right? The Black Rockck
[18:54] website recently had a huge, you know,
[18:57] advertisement on their homepage for the
[18:59] IBIT um you know, ETF and a bunch of uh
[19:02] products that they're building around
[19:02] it, etc. Like that there there's no more
[19:05] mainstream than being on the homepage of
[19:06] Black Rockck, right? At the same time,
[19:09] AI, look at SpaceX maybe as an example.
[19:11] SpaceX, largest IPO in history, you
[19:13] know, $85 billion, whatever it was,
[19:15] comes out super hot. What is SpaceX? Is
[19:18] it a space company? Is it an AI company?
[19:22] Is it something else? Right? And you go
[19:24] and you look and say, "Okay, there's a
[19:25] couple ways to look at it. They have a
[19:27] monopoly on space launches. That's
[19:29] pretty valuable, right? They're putting
[19:31] Starlink up and they're beaming the
[19:33] internet down from space. Pretty
[19:35] valuable. There's the promise of orbital
[19:37] data centers." So you look at all of
[19:38] that and you say, "Okay, it's like a
[19:39] space satellite, maybe a orbital data
[19:42] center company." Okay, great. Well, if
[19:44] you go back and you look at the IPO
[19:46] presentation, they had a slide that was
[19:48] all about the total adjustable market
[19:50] and the rocket launch, you know, market,
[19:52] then the internet satellite business,
[19:55] right? They had all stuff. And then they
[19:57] had enterprise AI that was like I I
[19:59] forget the numbers like 28 trillion
[20:01] dollars of the like $30 trillion total
[20:03] adjustment market what whatever the
[20:05] numbers were but it was like the
[20:06] majority.
[20:08] SpaceX is an AI company. That is why
[20:11] they are valued the way that they are
[20:13] valued. And they've now comp or at least
[20:15] uh entered into the agreement to acquire
[20:17] cursor, right? They've got XAI. They've
[20:21] been signing up a number of contracts. I
[20:23] think they signed in the last 3 weeks
[20:26] three different contracts that are all
[20:27] at least $und00 million a month for the
[20:31] uh compute that they've put together.
[20:33] So, you start to look at this and you
[20:34] say, "Wait a minute. This is a business
[20:35] that's doing billions of dollars, tens
[20:37] of billions of dollars maybe run rate on
[20:39] a compute business that didn't exist two
[20:41] years ago. So what does that trajectory
[20:45] look like? Again, it goes back to the AI
[20:47] capex ROI. Well, like you think that's
[20:49] been valuable for XAI and SpaceX, of
[20:52] course. So I start to look at, okay,
[20:54] where where what am I interested in,
[20:56] right? I always hold some cash. I like
[20:59] Bitcoin. And then I want to be exposed
[21:02] to where growth is, where innovation is
[21:04] happening. And to me, that's happening
[21:06] in this whole sector that is related to
[21:08] artificial intelligence. Now, that
[21:10] doesn't mean you got to just play the
[21:11] software, right? There's obviously all
[21:12] the hardware stuff and and power, etc.
[21:15] But if you look at some of the things I
[21:17] own, I own Tesla stock, right? Why do I
[21:19] own Tesla stock? I believe that if Elon
[21:22] has a monopoly on humanoid robots and
[21:24] self-driving cars, that's going to be
[21:25] really valuable. I also believe he's
[21:27] going to merge SpaceX and Tesla
[21:28] together. He's probably going to do it
[21:29] before 2030. And when he does that, I
[21:32] think he's going to create this, you
[21:34] know, conglomerate of all of the things
[21:37] that Elon is working on. But it relies
[21:39] on hardware thinking and seeing. And if
[21:43] he can make hardware think and see using
[21:45] artificial intelligence, machine
[21:46] learning, computer vision, etc., then he
[21:49] is going to have the embodiment of the
[21:51] physical AI space. And I think that's
[21:52] going to be really, really valuable.
[21:54] Another thing I own is uh Robo Strategy,
[21:57] the uh publicly traded closed end fund
[21:59] that has exposure to all of the private
[22:01] or a lot of the private robotics
[22:03] companies. Why do I think that's
[22:05] interesting? Physical AI and robotics,
[22:06] right? Coming together, it is a way to
[22:09] get exposure to the private market. So,
[22:11] you got a public entity in Tesla, right?
[22:14] Then you've got Robbo strategy getting
[22:15] you access to the private. That to me is
[22:17] all physical AI and robotics. I think
[22:18] it's going to be a huge opportunity.
[22:20] Masayoshi Sun recently said it's the
[22:22] next trillion dollar opportunity. If you
[22:23] go and you look at a lot of the
[22:24] different technologies that are being
[22:26] built, a lot of the applications etc. I
[22:27] think that's going to be big. Another
[22:29] area that I think is really interesting
[22:31] is things when it comes to national
[22:33] defense and a lot of this technology. So
[22:36] for example, I've been pretty public
[22:37] about the fact I own uh Andis stock,
[22:40] right? And is got a really interesting
[22:42] business model. One of the hard parts
[22:44] about the drone industry is that there's
[22:46] so much technical uh aspects to actually
[22:49] making the drone work and creating
[22:50] innovative technology. So usually the
[22:52] teams that are needed to be able to
[22:53] create the technology are not the teams
[22:55] that are really good at commercializing
[22:56] it and building a company. And so what
[22:58] their business model is is they let a
[22:59] bunch of startups go and have the
[23:01] technical breakthroughs. Once they prove
[23:02] that the technology works, they step in
[23:04] and they buy the drone company and then
[23:07] they're really good at the M&A part of
[23:09] acquiring these, but then they have a
[23:10] huge BD team or a very effective BD team
[23:13] and they go and they basically start
[23:14] getting the commercial contracts. And so
[23:16] all they are is they acquire technology
[23:17] and then they go and they commercialize
[23:19] the technology, right? But what the
[23:21] reason why I like it is because you have
[23:22] national defense again. You have AI,
[23:24] robotics, machine learning, etc. in the
[23:26] drones themselves. And then they even
[23:28] are pushing into drones not just being
[23:30] in the air as we think, but also on land
[23:31] and in the water. And so you can see a
[23:34] theme emerging from all this stuff,
[23:36] right? Is in the private market. I've
[23:38] got exposure to a lot of the software
[23:40] type, you know, uh um uh companies,
[23:43] Replet, Lovable, Micro One, you know,
[23:46] those types of businesses that are very
[23:48] popular and have dominated their
[23:51] specific verticals when it comes to
[23:52] software. My public portfolio though is
[23:55] much more focused on physical AI and
[23:57] robotics. And so I feel like I've got a
[23:59] full stack exposure to AI between the
[24:01] public and private market, between
[24:02] software and hardware. So that's like
[24:04] one whole big piece. Obviously, Bitcoin
[24:07] I'm a huge believer in. I think that
[24:08] Bitcoin is going to continue to be the
[24:10] check and balance on the federal
[24:12] government printing an insane amount of
[24:13] money and manipulating the monetary
[24:16] policy and having insane fiscal policy.
[24:18] If that's the case, then we're going to
[24:20] see the national debt continue to
[24:21] explode higher. They're going to debase
[24:22] the dollar and Bitcoin will do very well
[24:24] over a long period of time. Everyone
[24:25] who's worried about Bitcoin's lost their
[24:26] mind, right? So, that's fine. But I like
[24:29] the fact that the things I own go
[24:31] through these periods where people don't
[24:33] like them. I do not want to own assets
[24:36] that are always in favor because if
[24:38] they're always in favor, that means
[24:39] they're popular. If they're popular,
[24:41] that means they're crowded. If they're
[24:43] crowded, that means the return has been
[24:46] um arbed away. And so, I actually want
[24:49] things that go in and out of favor
[24:51] because that means that the things that
[24:52] are out of favor likely have a lot more
[24:55] asymmetry to them. They have a lot more
[24:56] potential return in the future. And so,
[24:58] that volatility is really important.
[25:01] Think about the things I've talked about
[25:03] Tesla, Robo Strategy, Andis, Bitcoin,
[25:07] like all these things are super volatile
[25:09] compared to, you know, just owning
[25:10] Walmart stock. And so that's really what
[25:12] I'm looking for is I'm looking for
[25:13] thematic volatility where I can go and I
[25:16] can put these things into a portfolio
[25:17] and I can play a major theme and do it
[25:19] across public and private markets. Do
[25:21] you see that more on the consumer side
[25:23] or the pick and shovel infrastructure
[25:25] side?
[25:25] >> Well, think about Tesla, right? What is
[25:28] Tesla? Tesla is uh a lot of people would
[25:31] say self-driving cars and humanoid
[25:32] robots. And so they are not really a
[25:34] pixand shovel type provider. They
[25:36] instead are this like consumer type
[25:38] company. And maybe they'll sell the
[25:39] humanoids to enterprise and consumers
[25:41] both, right? Whatever. Okay, maybe I
[25:43] actually think of Tesla as a picks and
[25:45] shovels company. What do I mean? The
[25:47] value to me in Tesla is not in the
[25:50] hardware. That is the way they monetize
[25:52] the thing that is valuable. But really
[25:54] to me it is the computer vision, machine
[25:57] learning, artificial intelligence. It's
[25:58] all the models, the data, the real world
[26:01] application and the you know specific
[26:03] workflows in terms of how do you take
[26:05] all these models and this data and then
[26:07] make the hardware do something. So that
[26:10] is as picks and shovels and
[26:12] infrastructure as you get is owning the
[26:13] actual models. It's why OpenAI and
[26:15] Anthropic all these guys they're getting
[26:16] injected into all these people's
[26:18] products. Usually people think of picks
[26:20] and shovels and they don't think of, you
[26:22] know, something like a model, right?
[26:24] Because they're like, "Oh, a consumer,
[26:25] you know, interfaces with Yes, consumer
[26:26] interfaces with it." But also, how much
[26:28] of the revenue is actually coming from
[26:31] non-consumer use cases? A lot, right?
[26:34] And so I think that Tesla is to me a
[26:36] picks and shovels company because of
[26:37] what is valuable in that product or
[26:39] inside that company. But people just
[26:41] think of it as a consumer company
[26:42] because it interacts with or or gets
[26:45] money from the actual consumer. But
[26:46] that's not how I look at it. Today's
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[29:34] Gotcha. Let's switch gears a little bit.
[29:36] Let's talk about Kevin Worsh. Um, and
[29:38] >> big dog.
[29:40] >> You think we're getting rate cuts this
[29:41] year? Kelsey's got it at 78% for 2026.
[29:45] No cuts, same rate. Uh, next meeting's
[29:47] in July. They got it at 77%. No cuts, no
[29:50] changes. Well, let's go through uh from
[29:52] first principles.
[29:54] What has to be true for us to get rate
[29:56] cuts? We have to have lower levels of
[29:58] inflation. We have to have a Fed chair
[30:00] who believes that we should have lower
[30:02] rates and we need to have an economy
[30:04] that can handle lower rates. So those
[30:07] three things are somewhat
[30:08] interconnected, right? Because if we
[30:11] have lower inflation, that means the
[30:12] economy likely can handle having lower
[30:14] rates. And if we have lower inflation in
[30:16] an economy that can handle it, and then
[30:18] we need somebody there who can make that
[30:20] decision, has a courage to do it. Um, I
[30:22] believe that we will get a rate cut at
[30:24] some point in 2026. Um, I understand
[30:26] that people think we're going to get a
[30:27] rate hike. Um, again, it goes back to my
[30:30] belief that inflation is uh not nearly
[30:32] going to be as high nor as persistent as
[30:35] people are uh uh predicting. Now, what's
[30:38] interesting, I do not think that America
[30:40] will become more affordable,
[30:43] but I think that affordability and
[30:45] inflation are two different things.
[30:47] Inflation is an economic concept that
[30:49] central bankers and sophisticated
[30:51] investors care about. Affordability is
[30:54] what the average American cares about.
[30:56] They don't care what the rate of change
[30:57] is. That is like some textbook academic
[31:00] nonsense to them. All they care about is
[31:02] I go to the grocery store, my bills too
[31:03] high. I can't figure out how to take the
[31:05] money I'm making and pay for the things
[31:06] I want. Life's not affordable. That is a
[31:09] problem. That's very different than
[31:11] going to somebody and saying, I know
[31:12] that the dollar lost 30% of its
[31:14] purchasing power in the last 5 years,
[31:16] but the rate of inflation now is only
[31:17] 2%. Investors would be excited about
[31:20] that, right? Central bankers would be
[31:22] excited about that. Inflation's under
[31:23] control now. And therefore, that would
[31:25] mean that, hey, we've got this like
[31:26] strong economy that we don't have to
[31:27] worry about the high inflation, which
[31:28] would lead to lower rate cuts or more
[31:30] rate cuts. Average American don't care.
[31:33] They don't care if inflation is 2 or 3%.
[31:35] That number means nothing to them. That
[31:36] might as well be the same number. All
[31:37] they care about is affordability. So, if
[31:39] you go back to and you look at, well,
[31:40] okay, is inflation going to be a
[31:41] problem? I don't think so. If you then
[31:42] go and you look at can the US economy
[31:44] handle lower rates? I do believe that. A
[31:46] huge reason for it is if you look right
[31:48] now the American consumer is super
[31:49] resilient. Spending data looks amazing
[31:52] and on top of that you have a stock
[31:53] market that continues to grow. Uh and
[31:55] then on top of that household wealth is
[31:57] growing. Now real wages have struggled
[32:00] and had some headwinds. So you got to
[32:01] get that back in in right shape. Some of
[32:03] that is inflation coming down because
[32:04] energy prices come down, the Iran war
[32:06] stops, etc. But if we get towards let's
[32:08] say Q3 and that inflation number is
[32:11] coming down, Kevin Wars is something we
[32:13] call trigger happy. He's sitting there
[32:16] ready. He he he he's got his finger
[32:17] hovering over the button right now. He
[32:19] doesn't make the decision exclusively.
[32:21] There's FOMC and the whole thing, right?
[32:23] But my guess is that if that inflation
[32:26] number starts to come down, they going
[32:29] and they going to hit that button. We're
[32:30] going to get a rate cut. Now, I don't
[32:31] think we're going to get like, you know,
[32:32] three rate cuts or anything crazy, but I
[32:34] could easily see them doing a rate cut,
[32:35] which is kind of a check on the market.
[32:37] Like, hey, look, we are willing to do
[32:38] this. Now, what would change my mind is
[32:40] if inflation did stay persistently high
[32:43] or if we did see some sort of weakness
[32:45] in the US economy. I just don't see that
[32:47] right now. And so, I think that before
[32:48] the end of the year, we're likely to get
[32:50] some sort of rate cut. Um, I think
[32:52] you'll see the the prediction market
[32:54] odds all change. Um, but I also don't
[32:56] think it's a bad scenario if rates just
[32:58] stay the same, right? I don't think that
[32:59] they are necessarily hurting the US
[33:01] economy by keeping them where they are.
[33:03] I do think if they hike rates, it would
[33:05] be premature. I think that it would be
[33:07] ill- advised and I think it could
[33:08] actually create a lot of problems. But
[33:10] if they kept it flat, fine. I think they
[33:12] should cut, but that's fine if they want
[33:13] to keep it flat. I don't think it's that
[33:15] crazy. And then maybe I'd put it at like
[33:17] 60% odds that we get a uh a rate cut
[33:19] before the end of the year. Now, do you
[33:20] think he's coming in from a position,
[33:22] and I know you're not him, so I'm not
[33:23] going to act like you can speak for him,
[33:25] but is he coming in a position of, hey,
[33:27] let's do something because something is
[33:28] better than nothing, or is this a, hey,
[33:30] let's evaluate, let's say, you know, the
[33:32] first couple months, let's kind of see
[33:33] what the market is doing. uh look at the
[33:35] data a little more often because I find
[33:36] it interesting that it depends how you
[33:38] look at it, right? Uh you can look at
[33:39] credit card delinquencies and you can
[33:41] quickly understand uh the consumer is
[33:43] not doing as wellending.
[33:45] >> That's a credit card problem. That's not
[33:47] a consumer problem, right? I think
[33:48] that's a key piece to this.
[33:50] >> If I remember correctly, the average
[33:52] credit card interest rate in America is
[33:54] something like 23%.
[33:57] >> If you don't pay your credit card off at
[33:58] the end of each month, you're screwed
[34:00] because this thing's going to fly,
[34:02] right? Okay. So, is that a consumer
[34:06] strength problem? Cuz consumer spending
[34:09] is off the charts. Now, people may say,
[34:10] "Oh, with credit cards, whatever." Like,
[34:12] ah, not really.
[34:14] Now, if the credit card interest rate
[34:16] was 5%.
[34:19] What would be the outcome? You probably
[34:21] wouldn't have as many credit card
[34:22] delinquencies, right? Now, I don't
[34:24] believe that they should cap the credit
[34:25] card del uh the credit card interest
[34:27] rate because I think that they're going
[34:28] to be putting the government in there.
[34:29] They're going to manipulate it. A lot of
[34:30] the credit card companies just stop
[34:31] giving credit to people, right? So,
[34:34] they're trying to price credit and the
[34:36] credit that they've deemed is over 20%.
[34:39] So, that's just what it is, right? Is
[34:41] they they're using their math to try to
[34:43] figure out what that credit card rate
[34:44] is. Now, with that said, if you go and
[34:47] you actually take a look at uh Worsh,
[34:50] his uh entire press conference, his
[34:52] statement, you know, all of the
[34:54] commentary around the Fed meeting, he
[34:56] pretty much did what I would consider a
[35:01] uh economic slight of hand. What do I
[35:04] mean by that? He did not touch interest
[35:06] rates. He said, "We're going to leave
[35:08] this where it is." But he is rejiggering
[35:12] the entire
[35:14] Fed. He's creating a task force. He's
[35:17] changing the metric in which he wants to
[35:19] look at to actually measure inflation.
[35:21] He's coming in and he is saying that he
[35:24] doesn't believe some of the things that
[35:25] have been going on previously. He's not
[35:27] going to give future guidance. I mean,
[35:28] these are seismic changes that if you
[35:31] took just one of them and Jerome Powell
[35:33] had did it, it would be headline news
[35:35] for a couple days. If Jerome Powell all
[35:36] of a sudden said, "We're not going to
[35:37] give Ford guidance anymore. Oh my god,
[35:38] these people be going nuts, right? But
[35:41] because you have change at the
[35:42] leadership level, the new person gets to
[35:44] come in and kind of change a lot of this
[35:46] stuff. But he did it without cutting
[35:48] interest rates. He did it without
[35:49] touching the interest rate. So it was
[35:51] almost like a uh a balance beam, right?
[35:54] Like if I don't touch this, I can make a
[35:56] lot of changes over here. If he had cut
[35:58] interest rates, he couldn't probably
[35:59] make all these other changes as well.
[36:01] And so he chosen along with uh his
[36:04] colleagues, don't touch the interest
[36:05] rate. Let's get some more data. let's
[36:06] kick the can down the road. But then he
[36:08] has chosen the things under his purview
[36:10] where he probably has a lot more control
[36:11] without the FOMC, you know, weighing in
[36:14] saying, "Hey, I'm going to make these
[36:15] changes over here and he's laying the
[36:17] groundwork. He's creating the culture,
[36:18] the environment. He's probably making
[36:20] personnel changes. I wouldn't be
[36:21] surprised if we start to hear that um to
[36:23] make sure that the right people are in
[36:24] the right seats and he's got the
[36:25] organization optimized in a way that he
[36:27] thinks is best to oversee monetary
[36:29] policy in America. And I don't think
[36:31] that a lot of the things he said were
[36:33] that controversial. I I understand some
[36:34] people don't like it or don't agree with
[36:36] it, but it all kind of made sense to me,
[36:38] right? Is he's like, "Look, we got to
[36:39] make sure we're looking at certain
[36:40] metrics that don't take in for the
[36:42] temporary spikes in in certain prices.
[36:44] We got to make sure that we're not
[36:45] trying to predict the future because we
[36:47] get boxed into doing that thing." Like,
[36:49] that doesn't seem crazy to me. So, I I I
[36:51] think that he's off to a pretty good
[36:52] start. I think I gave him like a I can't
[36:54] remember. Uh I think on a scale of 1 to
[36:55] 10, I gave him like a eight or eight and
[36:56] a half. Like, uh it's not a 10, you
[36:58] know, he didn't get an A+, but uh he
[37:00] also didn't get a C. you know, he he
[37:02] sees get degrees, but you know, he got
[37:04] uh he was up in the uh BB+ range.
[37:07] >> B+.
[37:08] >> Yeah.
[37:08] >> Okay. All right. Not bad. I I would have
[37:10] loved to get that great in high school.
[37:13] >> All right. Let's switch gears a little
[37:14] bit. Let's talk about Bitcoin. Um over
[37:16] the next 10 years, what's your bare case
[37:18] and bullcase for Bitcoin?
[37:20] >> Well, Peter Schiff recently admitted on
[37:23] national television that he doesn't
[37:24] think Bitcoin is going to zero. So, you
[37:25] know, he's like the last of the
[37:26] Moheakans. If uh if he's not going to I
[37:29] think it's going to zero. I think a lot
[37:30] of people are like, "All right, it's
[37:32] unlikely that it's going to go to zero."
[37:33] Um, now with that said, could it drop
[37:35] significantly? Sure. But I do think that
[37:37] Bitcoin has breached um, you know, kind
[37:39] of the last big wall, which was getting
[37:42] institutional adoption. And now that it
[37:44] has it, you know, I think that there's a
[37:45] lot of folks who say, "Wait a second.
[37:47] This thing that was super shiny,
[37:49] asymmetric, highly volatile, um, you
[37:52] know, kind of the the, uh, king asset of
[37:54] cowboy land, it's not that anymore. And
[37:57] so a lot of my friends aren't buying as
[38:00] much Bitcoin as they previously had been
[38:02] because they're like, "What's Bitcoin
[38:03] going to do? Go up 30% a year." Okay.
[38:07] But like I can go and I can invest in
[38:09] ABCD, you know, things and I can do
[38:11] better than 30%.
[38:13] Whereas I know a lot of institutions
[38:15] that are like, "You're telling me
[38:16] there's an asset that I could buy. It's
[38:17] gonna go up 30% a year for a decade. I'm
[38:20] very interested in that." Right? And so
[38:22] the compression of volatility from you
[38:23] know 80 v asset down to 3540 or whatever
[38:26] it is uh is very attractive to large
[38:28] pools of capital. And so the upside case
[38:30] here I think is you are not going to see
[38:33] the you know 10x 20x type bull markets
[38:36] but you're going to get this asset
[38:38] that's going to continue to compound. My
[38:40] base case is 25 to 30% for the next
[38:42] decade. It's not what it did in the
[38:44] past. Better than the stock market,
[38:48] right? I mean, if that's like the index,
[38:50] how many people are able to produce a 25
[38:52] to 30% return annually for a decade? Not
[38:55] that many people. And so, I think that
[38:57] it's going to do very well. But I always
[38:59] remind people that unhappiness is the
[39:02] gap between expectations and reality.
[39:05] So, guess what? You can't have outsized
[39:08] expectations because you're probably
[39:10] going to be disappointed. So, if your
[39:11] expectation is 25 30% and it does
[39:13] better, great. You're ecstatic. But if
[39:15] you think it's going to do 100% a year,
[39:17] then yeah, you're insane. And so it's
[39:19] just like keep rational expectations.
[39:21] Asset will do well. Um it'll continue to
[39:23] gain adoption. It'll continue to grind
[39:25] up. The government will keep printing
[39:26] money. Like the the Bitcoin thesis is
[39:28] intact. It's just that it is playing a
[39:31] different game now, right? It kind of uh
[39:33] Bitcoin went from uh playing, you know,
[39:36] high school basketball and you're like
[39:38] one of the 10 people on the court right
[39:39] now going to the NBA to now we're like
[39:42] in college, right? everyone is much
[39:44] better and uh there's a lot less
[39:47] variation on the court, but also
[39:50] everyone's much better. So, the game is
[39:52] better, right? It's more fun to watch
[39:53] it. I It's u more likely to be good
[39:56] basketball.
[39:58] At some point, we're going to get to the
[40:00] NBA, sovereign wealth funds, all that
[40:02] stuff, right? We're not quite there yet,
[40:04] but you know, we're like college
[40:05] basketball, maybe like a Duke game. Does
[40:06] this feel different than 2022? And the
[40:09] reason I say that is uh the bare market
[40:11] it just like consumer sentiment to me
[40:12] has never been worse. Institutional
[40:14] adoption and excitement about Bitcoin
[40:16] has actually I don't think ever been
[40:17] higher. Um does it like what's the
[40:20] difference in these bare markets?
[40:22] >> No. Internet Bitcoin sentiment is bad.
[40:25] >> I don't know. Maybe it was cuz we were
[40:27] living in Miami and now we're in New
[40:28] York. But it feels different.
[40:30] >> Internet consumer sentiment is bad right
[40:33] now. I got people I've known for a long
[40:35] time. They sharpshooting each other.
[40:37] They're saying all kinds of crazy stuff.
[40:38] People rage quit and all all that
[40:40] nonsense. Nobody's doing that stuff in
[40:42] the institutional world. They may not be
[40:44] allocating as much to Bitcoin, whatever.
[40:46] But like they're much like calmer.
[40:48] They're much kind of like cooler head,
[40:50] right? They have investment committees,
[40:53] they have risk management, they have,
[40:55] you know, kind of more data driven, all
[40:56] this stuff. So I do think a
[40:58] generalization that has truth to it is
[40:59] retail investors tend to be much more
[41:01] emotional. Institutions tend to be a
[41:03] little bit less emotional. Not all. I
[41:05] mean, still humans, right? So there's
[41:06] still some emotion but but a little bit
[41:07] different. So I like to say that
[41:10] internet consu uh consumer sentiment is
[41:13] down. Institutional sentiment is fine. I
[41:17] don't think it's like sky-high euphoria
[41:18] and like there's a bunch of frothiness,
[41:20] but they're still investing in building
[41:22] out all these technologies. They are
[41:24] still going and trying to create, you
[41:26] know, Bitcoin related funds. They're
[41:28] still going and uh building custody
[41:30] solutions. They're doing acu hires of,
[41:32] you know, uh investment teams. uh
[41:34] Fidelity just went and uh did or I'm
[41:36] sorry, Franklin Templeton just recently
[41:37] went and did this. Um we've also seen uh
[41:40] a bunch of things happen um in terms of
[41:43] uh OKX and ICE just partnered with each
[41:45] other to go create a bunch of products.
[41:46] Like there's just stuff happening. So
[41:49] when people say consumer sentiment is
[41:51] bad or investor sentiment is bad,
[41:53] they're using the internet as a proxy,
[41:55] but there's a balance. It used to be
[41:57] 100% of everything that you needed to
[41:58] know about Bitcoin was on the internet.
[42:00] I literally used to be able to tell you
[42:02] what the price of Bitcoin was up or down
[42:04] based on what I saw on the internet. You
[42:06] can't do that anymore, right? Because
[42:08] now you have a whole new player in the
[42:09] space. And so maybe it's like 50/50. 50%
[42:12] of the information and importance etc's
[42:15] on the internet and 50% is in the
[42:16] institutional world. But it used to be
[42:18] 100 and zero with zero being the
[42:19] institutions. So it's 50/50 now. In 10
[42:22] years is it going to be
[42:24] >> 8020 9010 you know whatever. So like the
[42:26] institutions are becoming more
[42:27] important. they have more capital and
[42:28] the individuals, some of them are
[42:30] capitulating and they're moving on to
[42:31] other things. And so, um, you know, I'm
[42:33] aware of it. Uh, I don't like seeing my
[42:35] friends all argue with each other, but
[42:37] also at the same time, um, you kind of
[42:40] needed to happen to get the bottom,
[42:42] right? And so, I don't know if we've hit
[42:44] the bottom. Uh, but, uh, you know, we
[42:47] definitely came down. There's a lot of
[42:48] signs that say, uh, we could have hit
[42:50] the bottom and, uh, let's see what
[42:52] happens.
[42:52] >> All right. Appreciate your time. Thank
[42:54] you.
[42:54] >> All right. Thanks for doing this,
[42:55] everyone. Go check out CFO Sylvia. Just
[42:57] CFO silvia a.com. See all of you next
[43:02] time.