ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd

[00:02] Hello followers of the 4-year journey. Bob Lucas here. June 4th, 2026. Hope you're doing well. Of course, this is another update of the uh the 4-year journey and where we stand in the current Bitcoin cycle. The agenda for today, four topics. The retest here that we're seeing in Bitcoin that was always coming. If you remember the last video, we talked a lot about that. Uh the bottle portfolio makes its first buy action in 3.5 years. Um not because I
[00:33] believe the cycle low is in, but it's an advantageous time to begin reaccumulation. Talk briefly about why it's never different even no matter what all the bullards will want to tell you online. Um it's never different and then what's next, which I believe is the final stage of this cycle. So with with that, let's get into it. If you go back and watch the last video and the video before that as well, uh pretty clear in what I thought would the outcome would be. And
[01:03] just just just to let you know in in general, a cycle very very rarely and I mean less than 10%, probably more like 5% will ever end very early and also on the first significant decline from the high. There's always a retest. There's generally always a lower low, at least one lower low, if not a second lower low. And we had the peak up here on in October, which occurred, of course, not
[01:33] coincidentally, this time, uh, exactly where the last two cycle peaks occurred. We broke below the 10-month moving average. We confirmed that the cycle had peaked, and then we went into this capitulation into the February lows around the $60,000 mark. From there, after a five month decline and sentiment really at a negative level, we were well overdue a bounce and we got that bounce. And if you recall in the last video and the video before that, the expectation
[02:04] uh was that it would follow the script of how all asset classes generally in a decline in a bare market would respond, especially after a significant 50% decline of that nature into the February lows. The expectation was a gap fill, a counter trend move, one that gets the bulls who failed to give up to failed to to acknowledge that the market was in a bare market trend and started coming up with narratives that this was the start
[02:35] of the next bull market. So that move back towards the 10-month moving average was a natural counter trending move. took a couple of months, maybe even little bit longer than than maybe many expected, but that was also a function of the fact that we went down sharply over a long period of time. So that lengthened duration of that decline warranted a little bit of a longer counter trend move, but back to roughly where I expected that trend, that
[03:06] counter trend move to end around that 85,000 level. I think it hit just almost shy of 83,000. At that point, the bulls, many of the bulls at least, hadn't given up. They flipped their narratives from one to the next. And I'll talk about that a little bit later on. And of course, they got trapped. They convinced people to leverage up at that point because Bitcoin is going to follow every other asset class and and hit that 125,000 all-time high level very rapidly and
[03:36] leave everybody behind. Uh, of course this time is now proving that it's not different and we've now since reversed that, dropped another 25% or so and in the last few few days have basically retested the February lows. Now, we haven't made technically a lower low at this point, but it's irrelevant from a cycle perspective because cycles don't measure price or the absolute price
[04:06] level. It measures the cycle over time and this move especially with the separation of the first decline into the February lows. This move to the May high and subsequent retest pushes the cycle low now towards or the current cycle count to month 43 of the cycle. So here we stand right now on month 43 retesting the February lows and the cycle continues.
[04:36] Now, I'm going to present the the kind of the bullcase uh that people may be looking for, searching for. And this move down to retest those lows here the last few days represents the first possibility of a a of a slightly shorter 4year cycle low and a double bottom that then results in a move up or a basing pattern into say
[05:08] late summer eventually a push above the May highs and then the next fouryear cycle becomes clear. Um there is precedent for that type of action in very bullish assets or very bullish environments. Um and therefore the reason for beginning to add some to the model portfolio right at that level was primarily for that potential outcome. I give that potential outcome pretty low
[05:38] weight from a sort of a probability perspective maybe around the 25% level. But it is a possibility. Okay. Um and therefore accumulating or starting to add some back to the model portfolio at that level to me makes some sense because the downside from 65,000 or 60,000 to the four year to the eventual fouryear cycle low is now far less. So from a riskreward perspective or just positioning for the long term, beginning
[06:09] to starting to nibble and add at these levels makes sense to me. So now with this retest of this level, adding some back in um has been accomplished at the 65,000 level. The model portfolio is always available on uh the Bitcoin Live website. There's a link to that in the description below on the video. That hasn't changed. But as an update right here, the model
[06:39] portfolio here has added 10 BTC at 65,000 level, leaving still a considerable amount of cash overall, but moving the BTC weight of the portfolio. Again, this is a model for illustration purposes at 58% versus 41% cash. Currently, what I'm thinking is the best strategy, and this is always subject to change, is that at the 53,000 level, all cash that remains to buy the remaining
[07:09] Bitcoin and get back to a 100% allocation. At the 53,000 level, we're tagging the midpoint of the entire 4-year cycle. So as you can see right here, we had a first uh sort of quarter of the cycle to a peak. Then we consolidated. Here is roughly the midpoint of the cycle around month 2122 before the second leg. And often you'll get a retest
[07:40] of those levels in any bare market decline. Now 53,000 may seem extreme. However, that's what barely 15 or so percent lower from this level. And within just the last two to three weeks, Bitcoin has come down um $20,000. So, it did that in two to three weeks, it declined 26%. So if you believe that Bitcoin is not capable of that, then I think you're
[08:11] really ignoring the historical volatility of Bitcoin and what it does in bare market declines. Uh in prior bare markets, of course, the 202122 decline was a 77% from peak to trough decline. The prior cycle was 86 or 87% and the one before more than 90% decline. Currently this decline from the highs sits at only around 51 52%. So again uh
[08:45] yes I do expect over these cycles as this asset class or as as Bitcoin matures gets wider adoption and the market cap overall significantly increases that those drawdowns in the bare market decline won't be as extreme. But currently compared to the last cycle just you know three to four years ago at this point of a 77% decline seeing Bitcoin decline by around 65% to 70% for
[09:16] this cycle here should is not an expectation is not a prediction but hell it shouldn't become a surprise to anybody if Bitcoin is capable of doing that and right now even just tagging the 53,000 level right here is a 57 7% decline from the top. Given that the last one was was 77, I don't think that's um uh sort of an unusual position to take, especially given the sentiment
[09:46] out there and and the overall uh kind of the mechanics of where we stand right now. The equity markets, tech, the NASDAQ, typical assets that typically Bitcoin would be well correlated with are pushing all-time highs. And Bitcoin has completely decoupled from that. You had the biggest buyer in the market basically being crowded out right now and Michael Sailor. ETF outflows are horrible. There's a quantum uh narrative
[10:16] out there that that's creating some FUD in the space, but you know that they they're real considerations for large capital allocators and retail just wasn't around this cycle. There is no new blood in this cycle and let's be honest about that. There have been scams after scams and just vaporware. And I know that's not Bitcoin itself, but that is the ecosystem that Bitcoin is part of that is negative negatively weighing in weighing on Bitcoin here. So, um yes,
[10:48] you know, you may be asking, well, if you believe that and you believe the cycle hasn't ended just yet, why would you buy at 65? And again, that is because the 4-year cycle portfolio is not intended to be a complete timing thing. I would have gone 100% cash or close to it on the breakdown and look to buy at lower levels. We would have done it the cycle before, but the the model portfolio is essentially, and I've said this in the beginning, it's a huddle strategy. It's designed to always have
[11:18] Bitcoin allocated to be exposed and positioned for surprise. uh kind of a super cycle move for example if that ever were to happen. Um those types of environments. It's designed for people who were huddling but wants to wanted to then take advantage of the extremes and the volatility that you see in Bitcoin. So it's intended to just trim a little bit near the top peak, add it back at the bottom and rinse and repeat. And over time the goal being to
[11:48] steadily increase the stack of Bitcoin that we have. And so far that's worked. And the way this is working out right now, um, I'm hoping that that will be again the result by the end of this cycle. The good news is that with this counter trim move that we saw into the May highs around the 83,000 level, Bitcoin really should not now trade above that level in the next 3 to four months without a new cycle being formed.
[12:20] Uh typically when you get that downtrend move and the 10-month also is a is a very good indicator for trend. Very rare to see it go up and close back above that 10-month moving average or even breach that average comfortably or get back above the prior recent high intermediate cycle high. And in this case it was last month's high of around 83. So the good news is that even if this becomes a double bottom and we have a shorter 43month 4year cycle low um
[12:53] that reallocating back above 83 84 85 or in that sort of area with the remainder of the of the model portfolio would still leave the portfolio in a situation where the it would accumulate more Bitcoin over that cycle and that's also with a very diffic that would also be a very difficult kind of ending to to to the bare market or the fouryear cycle and still be able to come out ahead is a good thing. The goal of course is to get
[13:24] as much Bitcoin as we can, not to profit from a dollar or fear perspective. I've always maintained that position that you can be a hodler. can be a long-term believer and still be okay with selling some Bitcoin to add or the goal to to obtain more Bitcoin in a in a in a fashion that is uh I wouldn't say relatively safe but uses the long-term changes in trends to be able to identify when is a good time
[13:55] to release some or when it's a good time to buy some. It's interesting because that concept uh over the eight years of publishing these reports, you know, some of the dieards are like, you never sell your Bitcoin, never sell your Bitcoin. Those same people follow Michael Sailor. And of course, now, you know, after he said, "Never sell your Bitcoin," he's selling some Bitcoin. So, it's funny how that works out. But um our goal is if we can get a more traditional end to this cycle which means around the October time frame where the timing is in the
[14:28] heart of the cycle then and down to a sort of level that sort of mirrors prior cycles with some diminishing aspect to it. around that 53,000 level would result in a good addition to the portfolio. So, this model portfolio would then in that scenario be able to get up to around 55 BTC from the beginning 25 uh where it started at 25. Of course, Bitcoin can hit the 40,000
[15:01] level and below, but this portfolio does not intend to be greedy like that. does not try and pick absolute bottoms and tops, although it's been very good at picking bottoms. 53,000 I would be more than content to go into 100% allocation because I know over time as a believer in Bitcoin that regardless of what it does here or whether it goes much deeper, nobody knows. I believe that by 2028 or
[15:35] so that it would be back above the all-time high levels and moving forward and then accumulating at that 53,000 level is going to be beneficial. Now, if you're looking for far more aggressive spot allocation, positioning, no leverage, but spot, and more of a an active trading perspective, that content I publish twice a week on Bitcoin Live. I have a link in the uh description as well if you're interested
[16:05] um on that service. You can sign up for that uh on the on the website. So going forward, yeah, this you know, everyone keeps saying it's different. This time is different. I heard every every excuse out there possible and we did in the last cycle as well. But this here is as normal a fouryear cycle as they come. People started saying, "We didn't get a big blowoff." We didn't get a big blowoff in the last cycle either. And a blowoff is not a requirement for a 4-year cycle. There
[16:37] are fourear cycles or other cycles in every other asset class that sometimes end up going sideways for the entire period down into the cycle low and then move higher again. So, there's no requirement that that happens. Um, currently, yeah, on month 43 again, a new low here. We're now in the window. So a window for a cycle low is typically the the the majority of cycle lows will fall within 10% of the average. The average being 4748 in this case. 10% on
[17:09] either side. So like month 43 to month 40 or month 50 51 that window from that low is roughly where you can kind of expect a cycle low to hit. So, if you kind of draw a window like this, of course, we don't know where the price forms, but as you can see from a 10% uh deviation from either side of the window, Bitcoin is now heading into that, which is why I said the beginning of the video, there is a chance, a small
[17:41] chance, but there is a chance in a very bullish outcome that it forms a low here or maybe bounces sharply and comes back and kind of retests it one more time, maybe a a higher low once more around that October time frame and begins to base out and start to make the run higher. Uh so that would become then the traditional fouryear cycle low. Even if it's a higher low, it doesn't matter if it's within that same structure
[18:13] via time, then that would qualify. Um so the window has been hit. The four-year cycle now is getting close or getting towards an end. But as I mentioned before, this is not any different to prior cycles. I mean, we've heard from, again, I call them bullards because they really are so biased and have an agenda, but you know, stock to flow, you know, plan B, I've been hearing about a plan C, some nonsense about that. power laws. You know, we've been talking about I
[18:43] remember 2024 25 it was all about global liquidity uh in M2 and the correlations were so convincing that everybody really believed all those. Now it's business cycle and ISM. I I don't know why people would correlate Bitcoin with the manu a manufacturing based sort of index but they're doing that. They convinced themselves as they did with the M2 liquidity cycle. Of course, we had the whole ETF narrative, institutional
[19:14] narrative, the uh the Treasury comp treasury, Bitcoin Treasury adoption of Michael Sailor, infinite bid, money glitches, and all these things. We've heard about them. Supply shocks, fiat fiat debasement, the Trump trade, the the new administration, the SEC change. I mean, it's just endless institutional adoption, pensions, it's just been an endless stream of narratives. Ultimately, we're down 50 odd percent.
[19:45] The equity markets, tech is bursting through all-time highs. And here is Bitcoin just showing us what a typical four-year cycle is doing. We also heard the death of the four-year cycle by pretty much the majority of pundits out there. And they were pretty vocal about it, tagging me on pretty much every tweet and every post out there. Uh, of course, that hasn't worked. Now, you may say, well, why is the four-year cycle kind of different in that respect? You know, isn't it just another indicator? No, it's not because it's not
[20:16] tethered to these indicators or these narratives. these cycles simply they're simply an expression of collective human sentiment is what they are and asset class as it's as it's adopted participants you know they they kind of move through these predictable phases you know of optimism greed speculation disappointment fear eventually sort of you know apathy and it's it's a it's a cyclical process that happens and as people adopt an asset
[20:48] class they they mimic the existing sort of culture so so to speak of that asset class. But what makes Bitcoin a little more predictable in that sense versus say stocks and everything else is that and this is the same goes for gold. Both of these are really faith-based assets, right? They're not, you know, they don't produce cash flows. They don't pay yields. There's no intrinsic value that you can anchor price to with all these.
[21:19] The the the value is determined entirely by what the next buyer is willing to to basically pay for it. And that really does set up well for a more predictable sort of cycle picture and cycle pattern. So the you know what ends up happening is these these major bull markets and bare markets are driven they're not really driven by fundamentals like people want to believe but it's more about shifts in collective psychology. You know periods of greed and
[21:49] speculation push prices far beyond what seem reasonable and that's where you get those sort of blowoff moves. But then periods of you know fear, disillusionment uh push them you know really down and extremely lower. Uh what does change in a cycle though is not where the peak occurs. And I I've been trying to be very deliberate in talking about this in all the videos because you're not going to probably see and I would almost bet in the next four years cycle. It's not
[22:19] going to peak on month 35 or you're in around that area. may come later, probably come earlier in my opinion, but where it peaks, uh, the duration of the greed and positive sentiment speculation will not be the same. What will be very similar in my opinion will be the eventual 4-year level, the 4year cycle low out here in the 2030 time frame with, of course, some type of window.
[22:51] And I'm just going to move that out with a wide kind of window and a wide price movement. What happens in terms of the peak? Again, I think people will, you know, a lot of people think the four-year cycle is three years up, one down, three. It's not. It's not. It has so far played out that way, but that's not what cycles represent. Cycles measure the end and the birth of a new cycle over that 4-year period. So, I want to get that out there
[23:21] because, you know, I, you know, I have a version of this that's not really about Bitcoin. It's about cycles and the study of cycles in financial markets versus sort of that narrative that's centered around h havinging for example. And my, you know, I've been very clear also my belief that the hing has zero impact on price. maybe had some earlier on, but the the the the emission schedule, the inflation rate has always been known and priced in. It's not a surprise. It's not like the FOMC where you're kind of
[23:52] waiting for the announcement of whether rates will be cut or not or whether the government's going to print more money or increase the supply and so on. It's a predictable schedule. We know when it's going to happen. We've factored in. That's why everyone talks about 21 million Bitcoin. They've they've always talked about 21 million Bitcoin since the beginning because they know that's what's going to come and that's where it's going to end. So, uh it's been priced at a 21 million um uh supply from from the very beginning. So,
[24:24] what comes next? I guess I've I've sort of touched a lot upon what comes next, but let's close with that and say, as I like to say a lot, we don't know exactly, right? We don't know ultimately all the price squiggles. What we know is historically what assets do, how they trade in similar environments, how Bitcoin is traded, and how they trade in in in cycles in general. And as I mentioned the window where it's just
[24:54] entering or just have entered that early phase of the window but we always have to respect as our primary view a more traditional cycle in terms of length and the 48month the 4-year period is scheduled to end around the October or November time frame and right now this has given me zero reason not to expect that this cycle will and around that area. And given that we're just
[25:25] retesting this area here, we're extremely oversold in the short and intermediate term that and also we had a lower here in February that there's probably going to be a natural level of support and a bounce from this point. Of course, that's no guarantee because we are in the heart of the bare market, the capitulation phase, but it's likely that maybe and this is an early monthly candle. It's only the fourth of the month. So, this red this candle may end up exceeding pushing
[25:58] below the 60,000 level before it ends. But I would think in the meantime, if you look at the month uh the weekly right here, in the meantime, it's possible that we get a bounce back up towards that 10 week moving average, maybe 73 or so, and then resume the trend lower towards what it's called a weekly cycle low, and possibly if it's July or maybe August, possibly the actual price low of the four-year cycle.
[26:30] again many variables when it comes into this which is why from a positioning standpoint I'm trying to kind of eliminate all that noise and and where the best sort of position is and accumulate at more advantageous levels which I think this is and anything below 65 certainly anything below 60 I would encourage people to be adding I also encourage people to have a huddle account that's not timed that at all that is just you accumulate over time.
[27:02] And if you have one of those, hopefully you do, I think anything below 65 or certainly anything below 60 is a natural add and buy and hold uh at at these levels. But to sort of close this out, my view here is that we still have probably around about 4 months to go somewhere around the October, November, December time frame. could be a little bit earlier. Again, um that is something we'll have
[27:32] to wait and see. And something probably around that sort of 53,000 level makes sense. Below that point, personally, I don't think we're going to get there, although I would not be surprised in the least. But, uh again, we're at that point in the final phase of the cycle. We just want to add the rest of our position and then we go away for a couple of years again, right? And that's I think the beauty and the one of the reasons why I wanted to start this journey from the beginning was I didn't want to make it about trading about
[28:03] indicators about sentiment about narratives and so on. It was more about just you see the cyclical nature of this market and you're releasing some you're adding some. You're releasing some and you're adding some. And that's been the goal and that will remain the goal. And we're now at that final stage here as we enter the second half of 2026. Thanks for being here. Wishing you all the very well, all the all the very best. And check out the links below if you're interested in more active and more
[28:34] frequent content. All the best, everybody.