Next Up – The Mania! – 4 Year Journey

[00:01] hello bitcoin four-year journey followers this is bob lucas here on march the 3rd 2021 i hope you're doing really well this is yet another video in the long series on the four year cycle it's been a couple of months since the last video a lot has changed we've had some decent declines of late we've had um obviously some new entrants into the space like elon musk and there's been quite a bit of hype around the action of late so there's a little
[00:32] bit here to cover but at the same time i hope and this sounds counterintuitive but i hope for the longer term followers of this journey that you don't necessarily find out anything new because the entire strategy has been based on the idea that investing is all about having conviction getting in early and staying the course and ignoring the noise around the uh the cycle and we've had certainly
[01:03] had a lot of noise and a lot of what i'm going to talk about today i think fits into that category so i hope by this point in the journey two plus years in that you do see a lot of what's going on in this space as just noise on the way towards our goal and that goal has been clearly stated from the beginning and i still feel that we're on that path so today in this video i'm going to cover as i always do where we stand in the four-year cycle where we are today
[01:34] where i think we're going what i think may have changed since some of the earlier videos then of course as i always do as well i just want to talk a little bit more about the emotional side the psychology side because that's where the game is going to be won or lost it's going to be won or lost in your own head how you interpret the news cycle the fud and everything else that's going on in relation to your own position that's really where the battle is and that's
[02:05] where the battle needs to be won i'm also going to talk about the super or hype cycle that all of a sudden is the latest and hottest craze in the bitcoin space i'm going to talk about the institutional phase of this four year cycle i'm also going to touch on very briefly about just in general other risks like a you know the covert reemergence or the bonds bond rates that are going up the u.s dollar supposedly uh crashing inflation stock market crash
[02:35] and so on i'm going to touch on getting out and selling because we are i believe getting closer at least to that point or potentially to and this is a question that keeps coming up so this is something i need to address and then i'll just very briefly touch on what i think happens after this four year cycle it is too early in my opinion to begin worrying about the next cycle we need to worry about this cycle but of course i'll just touch on that real briefly and i'll close with some final thoughts
[03:05] that's the agenda for today so let's get stuck into it so the last video was released in early january when bitcoin was on this really significant tear heading up towards 32 33 000 or so and everybody was really excited and one thing i recall a lot of people telling me was that we're never going to see another 30 decline because i've always worried or warned at least that 30 declines will come it's in
[03:36] bitcoin's volatility profile and one was going to come and i was certain of that and so many people essentially replied whether in comments on the video or on twitter that you're crazy institutions will never allow bitcoin to drop by 30 they'll just take it they'll gobble it up that was the narrative that uh that i heard over and over again and of course i knew that wasn't going to be the case and it wasn't the case we had a 30 decline here in early january
[04:07] back into late into mid to late january and that shook out quite a bit of the leverage players and and folks who had gone in on march and for example and and uh and some of the derivatives futures and so on and then we had this continuation higher and then we've had this other almost 30 percent pullback so we've had almost 230 pullbacks in just two months and the point i'm i'm i'm mentioning this for is that volatility will only
[04:37] increase as we get higher and that is part and parcel with uh the expectations that we need to have and how we approach and position ourselves on the way towards our eventual goal for most of you by now i hope 30 declines don't um you know don't mean anything to you and don't impact you at all but it still becomes difficult
[05:07] when you see everybody supposedly making a lot of money and you're sitting in sort of a comfortable hotel position there is this uh tendency that you need to add to your position that you've missed a lot of the massive massive gains perhaps and that you need to add to your position and that's typically those thoughts typically come in at the tail end of a big move and when you do succumb to to those thoughts and you add at the wrong times in a bull market you are susceptible to these big
[05:37] pullbacks that end up shaking you out and you end up selling some of that position or that extra position you added and in turn essentially raising your overall price on your portfolio i did say in a video a couple of times actually in some videos in the past when bitcoin was at the four thousand and six and eight thousand dollar range that in the future when we get up into that bull phase that we're going to see 10 000 declines
[06:07] in a day in bitcoin and we're going to see 10 000 rallies in bitcoin in one day and it seemed almost crazy at that point that that was possibly gonna happen and it's happened already we had a ten thousand dollar day here not long ago a couple of weeks back and um i think a lot of people panicked and a lot of people sold a lot of people were hurt because of this and some of the old coins that people got themselves into went down 40 and 50 percent now some of them have recovered but
[06:38] if you were in with too much of a position then those types of declines really did hurt and uh possibly three off your position so we need to be mindful that going forward as bitcoin continues on in this four year cycle that we are going to see more and more of these 10 000 declines and when we get up to the 100 120 150 000 price range we may even end up seeing 15 000 declines and 20 000 daily declines
[07:10] so again it's all about the mindset that we take into this and being prepared for such such events to happen and to understand that they are for the most part normal in a bull market of this size that um you know that will prepare us for being able to comfortably accept and ride that position so people got worried in these two moves but again if you're worried about these daily moves or these these weekly moves
[07:41] of 20 and 30 percent you're looking at this from the wrong lens you're looking at this from the wrong time frame and time frames are very very important in investing when your horizon is a two-year investment or a three or four year then the daily chart the four-hour chart even the weekly chart to some to some extent is not something you should ever look at what you should always be looking at is a time frame that complements the time
[08:13] frame of the investment itself and when you do that it allows you to take out a lot of the fear that you see from a day-to-day swing in a week to week swing for example if i were to go to a monthly chart and look at this chart right here where is the 30 percent decline that would scare you in this here they are here a couple of the weeks right january and february a couple of weeks but all i see all i see is all time highs
[08:43] i see monthly candle after monthly candle after monthly candle making a new high at an all-time high i see only green candles i see five straight green candles i see green candles above the the monthly bollinger bands so when i look at it from this lens only from this time frame i have no reason to be scared i have no reason to panic especially if you've followed this and you've gone in here in december of 2018
[09:15] okay we are sitting here on a position that is up one thousand three hundred and thirty percent okay so again look at it from glass half full not half empty yes we do have 20 30 pullbacks but when you look at it from your portfolio standpoint the four-year journey model portfolio that started with a hundred thousand investment and made it made its way up to something like 1.7 million
[09:46] in terms of value and then during that decline a few weeks back it dropped like three hundred thousand dollars now if i look at that and say i'm down i lost three hundred thousand then i put myself in a mental position where i can panic and sell and get worried i'm going to lose more whereas if i continuously just say to myself yeah the portfolio is up 1.4 million on a hundred thousand i'm doing well and i'm looking at this chart on the monthly i don't see any reason to panic it's not
[10:16] even a red candle i can then just essentially brush it off i can move on and not panic and not fear that i'm going to lose my position it's really the fear of losing a big open profit that haunts a lot of investors it's not the fear of losing necessarily it's amazing that investors can sit with a losing position for much much longer um than they can in holding a big open
[10:46] profit position because there's this tendency in the mind that we need to realize that profit that the profits there on paper and it's not yours so you need to you know have an action to close that position to realize that profit and that's a very strong urge that we have and that's why they say it's it's very difficult to ride a bull market it's easier to to ride a losing position in the bear market because i'm using the same psychology
[11:17] if you are in a big losing position it's not realized until you sell it so you don't want to realize a losing position because it makes it real when you close that position so you're willing and willing to hold it in a even if it's down 60 70 80 percent because your mind plays those tricks on you that you haven't lost yet because you haven't closed and there's a chance it'll recover on the flip side here you are sitting with 1 300 percent profit but you're worried that it's gonna it's
[11:47] gonna be it's gonna evaporate on you it's gonna be lost and that's where people still make money in the bull market but when they look back at the end of the cycle and they look back and they see you know an asset like bitcoin for example that may have gone from 3400 to 250 000 and they look and they say well i made some money but then they realized how much they really could have made if they held on so again this goes back to the goal this goes back to what are we in this for
[12:17] and when i showed some videos from december of 2018 from the original video i had a path and a plan that i was following and i knew it wasn't going to follow perfectly i knew it was just a guide it was a possibility and in investing i was prepared for the worst right and that's why my position size was what it was and it wasn't all in it was a good sized reasonable position
[12:48] that acknowledged that there was risk there's risk in any investment but at the same time i said to myself i'm not gonna give up on this possibility from what i see from prior cycles from what i see from the potential that's where i think bitcoin is going to go and i'm making a commitment from the beginning that i want to see bitcoin get up to that level and if it does get up to that level i don't want to have regrets i don't want to look back in a year or
[13:19] two and say i was in from the beginning i saw the potential for bitcoin to get to 200 250 300 000 in that cycle and i was there i was positioned but somehow i fell off because if you fall off in a bull market if you try to time the daily and the weekly thinking that you can get a little more bitcoin or you can escape a 30 percent decline the the various or multiple 30 declines
[13:50] that you will see on the way up then i can assure you you may get lucky once or even twice but at some point the bull market is going to trap you out it's going to rally so sharply that you won't know or you won't be able to buy back at a much higher price and it'll leave you behind and you'll be sitting back in a year or two and saying wow did i miss out on an opportunity so the whole goal of this is to have a
[14:20] position that is not so extreme that is not so large that is not a position that keeps you up all night and makes you you know dream about this and check prices at two o'clock in the morning and six o'clock in the morning when you wake up um a size a position that yes is obviously meaningful and life-changing and impactful but at the same time it's got to be something you can handle you need to be able to handle the gains the open profit that you have so you can get to the point where you
[14:51] can realize that gain and have a life-changing event as i said before if you need to take a little off a table on the way up i took a little bit off at 28 000. people some people said ah you know you're silly it's going so much high yeah i know it's going so much higher that's the whole point the whole point is that i want to take some off the table cover my initial investment so i don't feel as if i need to sell at the wrong time in the future it's a planned event so planned events
[15:24] as part of the strategy to getting towards 250 or 300 000 are perfectly fine because they are on your terms every time you make an investment decision on your own terms you're winning anytime you make an investment decision that wasn't planned that was in response to action market action at the time is an is is an event or is an action that is most likely not going to benefit you that is not on your terms and in your
[15:55] strategy fitting your plan and looking back most of the times that that happens it doesn't serve you well so that's something i think that's very important here from a psychology standpoint this is not a game of being overly technical okay this is a simple strategy four year cycle low we declined 85 percent prior cycles tell us that we're gonna go and make an all-time high and then possibly do a 10x or 20x or 30x from the
[16:25] other all-time high i'm not discovering anything that somebody else hasn't before but what i've what i'm doing possibly differently to that is acknowledging the possibility putting myself in position and essentially hunkering down and you know having a a a confident mindset to be able to realize that gain the absolute last thing i don't want is to be able to get
[16:56] to see bitcoin get to two hundred fifty thousand three hundred thousand and not have the position i said i was going to have and um to be able to predict or see the possibility of bitcoin getting to a certain point and not being a part of it that would eat you up it would tear you apart i'm almost more content with for whatever reason bitcoin topping out early like 60 70 80 000 and reversing into a bear market for two years
[17:27] and maybe getting out back down towards 20 000 or 25 000 right that is a possibility that i don't see occurring but it's always a possibility and if that were to happen and you still make some money that's fine that's just what the market that's what the market gives you that's what you take you just don't want to be in a position that you predicted or you saw the possibility you're positioned for it and you weren't there to benefit from it so the journey has been all about staying
[17:59] strong and uh talking about you know your mindset so i've kind of answered the second part of the agenda right here the mindset piece first from a four-year journey standpoint nothing has changed we are at 50 000 right here today in march of 2021 let's take a quick look from a video back over two years ago that's to get back up to the old highs that's when it begins to accelerate
[18:30] and this is when it begins to sort of go parabolic um let me see if i can move my chart higher now i'm going to bring this up into this area here okay i'm going to reconnect so this is kind of and and obviously price you know it's somewhat arbitrary at this point i can really stop it at eighty thousand i can go up to where three hundred thousand i'm not trying to predict a price point in the future what i'm trying to tell you is that from
[19:00] a time-based approach we most likely will see another right translated four-year cycle that's going to move up and kind of get up into this point here i would say around about the hundred to two hundred thousand dollar range why is that because so this next video is from april 2019 this is the confirmation video that the four year cycle had started bitcoin was around forty seven hundred this this video appeared three or four months after the original video
[19:31] take a quick listen as to sort of some of the expectations i had back uh almost two years ago today [Music] where it exceeds the prior highs so i'm going to draw from the 20 000 level to here this is the point where and again this is all guides i can't stress that enough where bitcoin probably exceeds the twenty thousand
[20:03] dollar level and begins to go parabolic and then from there does a 10x 15x whatever the number is nobody knows but this is the point 36 weeks from the top or around nine months give or take that it begins to exceed so then if we know that or if we believe that's roughly how to work and we can start to kind of draw this up right so our first test back down another test another test and then
[20:35] go okay that here and again this is not very neat but it's not supposed to be you can look at the prior move here and the one before that you get these 60-day cycles of rally up above the bollinger bands back down up above the bulge bands and back down for example it's going to be something similar to that probably get a nice shake out a couple of shakeouts along the way as well so we see most of 2019 below so the point of showing those
[21:06] prior videos is just to illustrate that that was the plan from the beginning and i want to stick to my plan and my plan for me is going pretty much the script there is um there's obviously a surprise along the way and we knew there would be there was a big surprise early in 2019 it rallied sharply we had the coronavirus crash we had one of the biggest fastest declines in bitcoin's 10-year history we've had a big big sort of quadrupling here over the last three or four months
[21:37] those surprises will continue nobody can predict the price from a day-to-day week-to-week month-to-month basis what we're trying to say simply is big low here in december 2018 a big high is due at some point towards the end of this year okay and then i believe a big four year cycle low is due at the end of 2022 where the price tops
[22:08] in that cycle is open okay it's up to the market it's up to the participants as to where how high they push this market i'm not trying to predict that top i'm trying to predict as best as i can when the time comes if i feel the market has blown off to a point where it's going to top in and around the time frame i expect for a top to occur which is towards the end of this year that's my only goal i'm open to the
[22:38] possibility that we top before sort of the 150 000 range i'm also open to the possibility that we surge to 300 350 or 400 in this cycle it's a possibility it doesn't negate a four year cycle theory the cycle theory is purely based on the declining phases of a cycle the declining phases or the lows of is what marks the beginning and the end of a given
[23:08] four year cycle how the cycle rises in that period and in that cycle determines its translation whether or not it's going to be a rising cycle or a flat or a declining cycle and we'll get into that a little later on so that's a good segue here into sort of the next question that we have on the agenda on whether or not this is a super or hype cycle that we're about to begin on i find this idea of the hype or super
[23:38] cycle very interesting not so much from what it potentially can give us from a price standpoint but from a psychology standpoint if we recall all of last year pretty much the entire 2020 when i asked people on social media for questions or what they want answered i probably received 30 to 40 of the questions were are we in a lengthening cycle are we in a is the four-year cycle incorrect and it
[24:10] got tiring to hear that to be honest with you and i didn't get a single one this time not a single question from hundreds of replies are we in lengthening cycles it's almost like that whole idea has disappeared and all of a sudden what i see is 30 40 30 to 40 of the questions are now are we in a super cycle are we in a hype cycle are we going straight up to to you know 400 500 million dollars so you know it's just interesting how
[24:40] the narratives quickly change based on the market it just tells me that everybody is so so biased in so many different ways and they want to they want to get behind a narrative they want to sort of almost justify their position and they develop bias and narratives and you know in the end for me it's possible it's always my answer i said the same thing about kind of the idea of a lengthening cycle where the lengthening cycle idea i
[25:12] basically said well we can easily get a peak a four-year cycle low and then a left translator peak again and that would be for some considered a lengthening cycle this would be a blow off top here in late december of 2023 or maybe 2024 and that when you zoom out would look like a major top but for me in a four year cycles it still would fit that profile and the same kind of thing can be said about a hype cycle or a super cycle
[25:42] does or could bitcoin just rally and rally and get up to this 400 500 yeah of course it could it's possible and i hope to have a good size position still in play because i'm not targeting a certain number for myself in this cycle i'm targeting what i hope will be a speculative blow off top that i can hope to identify as close as possible to real time as
[26:13] and whether that's 200 or 250 or 350 or 450 i think some of the same characteristics of a bull market blow off top will appear and exist so can we get just to answer the question can we get a hype cycle yeah we can the last few peaks were 10x or 20x above the prior high even a 20x from the 20 000 higher gets us to 400 that
[26:44] would still fit kind of the profile so we can get to that point we can get to that point even this year we can't get that point maybe early next year my point though is that the four year cycle meaning a meaningful corrective sentiment squashing sentiment uh you know um swinging that pendulum back to the extreme berry side will happen no matter what
[27:15] we will get a savage decline a significant bear market after the peak of this cycle and whether that cycle peaks at 150 at 200 or 500 whatever that number is we will get a bear market in my opinion we will get a decline of easily 50 percent but i think it would be more like 70 percent from the peak to the trough and i think that's going to be
[27:45] unavoidable so my answer to the super cycle the hype cycle is that i'm given the level of interest and the type of player that we have in the market today the type of capital that we have potentially continuing to flow in yes we certainly could get to that point we're already at 50 000 another 10x from here and 10x can be done relatively quickly in this space is 500
[28:15] 000. so it's all open i'm not um you know i try not to be rigid in my analysis and my expectations again i'm focusing on time and i think this cycle peaks towards the end of this year there's plenty of time left for the market to do something absolutely crazy um but again whether it's a super cycle or lengthening cycle whatever you want it still fits what i believe could be or would be a four year cycle low in the future so let's talk about this
[28:45] institutional phase now everyone's talking about the game's changed it's institutions institutions you know did the four year cycle predict or think about that well in fact if you go back to some of the earlier videos it's exactly what i talked about i always talked about the next phase being an institutional phase the next phase had to be an institutional phase because we're all now getting into serious market caps once you get above sort of that hundred billion dollar cap to 200 billion dollars
[29:16] you can't sustain that with mom and pop and uh enthusiasts and so on you need some more serious capital you need some more widespread attention and that's what we're seeing and i think the last bull market was the technical enabler of the onboarding of institutional funds and flows through institutional platforms and custody platforms and trusts for example and some regulation it's enabled the onboarding of institutional
[29:49] investors into the space and we're seeing that here today with uh you know with tesla buying obviously micro strategy grayscale and there's more to come and there will be way more to come and that's what fuels and drives a bull market that is the next that is the narrative of this four year cycle every four year cycle has a narrative and you know i take my hats off to to these folks elon and uh sailor for example and um you know some of
[30:19] these institutional folks dipping in um you know it's it's brave of them to to take that first leap you know it's easier for us as individual investors to do that um but they are talking uh they are stewards of uh of capital uh they have fiduciary responsibilities uh to shareholders for example and to to put that money or that capital at risk in something like bitcoin does take um yeah it does take uh to be being brave to be able to do that so i take my head off to them but i
[30:49] don't worship them i think there is too much of that really going on in this space and it's a little little cringe like uh for my liking i think some of them have the right intentions and i definitely believe sailor has all the right intentions but i will warn you be careful with what you wish for when it comes to the institutional side most of that money and i know a lot of the people behind it uh not necessarily or personally but i know the space they are in it
[31:19] for the profit and the speculation just like most of you are as well we are in some ways smarter than that money right we got in 10x lower than they did and they could have gotten at that point and they didn't they were waiting for a lot of the confirmation and they were waiting for somebody else to make that move so in many ways and i've said this before as well institutional are like sheep themselves
[31:49] they follow each other and when somebody starts making a lot of money in the space they feel compelled to follow they are no smarter than us they just have the connections and they have the capital and they have the whereabouts so to um to be able to make that move but we did it before them this time um don't be mistaken they don't have the same views of bitcoin that most of you folks do um who believe in it more from a grassroots standpoint
[32:21] where you won't sell a lot of your position you may huddle and huddle for years and decades institutional does not have that same belief i can guarantee you of that again there are exceptions sailor for example and others but a lot of this money a lot of this big money is in it for the gain and once they receive a 2x 3x 4x or 5x return they're going to start looking for the exits so if you believe
[32:53] again going back to um you know questions i get a lot which is you know will we get a big decline for the next four year cycle you bet we will i guarantee you we will and i don't use that word often but we will see at the top of this cycle we will see a sell-off like you won't believe like the prior sell-off and the sell-offs in the past when people start heading for the exits and the panic button is hit and the party is over and it's time to go home institutional has no allegiance they
[33:24] have allegiance only to their capital they worship their capital they don't worship bitcoin like some of you do they worship their dollars and they will head for the exit and they create a tidal wave of supply in the market that gets dumped and you will see that as the start of the sell-off into the next year cycle low and it could be quick it can be relatively quick at least from a
[33:55] longer time frame it could just be a six month decline again it's um it's it's difficult to predict some of these things but from a price standpoint you will see a major major correction from the institutional move so again institutional institution was always inevitable right um anything that's going to grow from a network standpoint and grow from a market cap standpoint needs broader and deeper adoption it's the only way bitcoin will grow
[34:26] so we have to i guess embrace it we just have to make sure we don't sell our soul at the same time with the adoption of this but getting up to a one trillion market cap and then going up to a four trillion or five trillion market cap just it just involves and needs deeper pockets to come into the space to make that happen but don't think the volatility is going away the vote you know when the volatility goes away or at least becomes more alike say gold and some other asset classes it comes when we at least find
[34:58] some level of interesting value in bitcoin and whether that's at the 4 trillion or 8 trillion or 12 trillion market cap level but when things begin to flatten out and i think that doesn't happen until this sort of 25 26 27 2026 27 time frame until that happens where we find some level where the market kind of settles and finds a price for bitcoin um that's when the volatility begins to really reduce and shrink
[35:29] until that point especially in this next cycle expect to see a significant decline okay culvert coming back bond rates are going up the u.s dollar is going to crash inflation uh stagflation stock market crash you know what i don't care those to me can be short-term drivers like covert last year that was a liquidity event that spilled over into crypto and bitcoin and they still they still always are
[36:00] risks on the shorter time frames but i think and i've said this before bitcoin is in a bubble and not not not the traditional sense of of a price bubble and of course it is in one of those as well it will it will be eventually it's in a bubble in terms of its uh finding its true intrinsic value it is rising versus the usd even if the usd would rise it's still going to rise faster it's rising no matter what bond
[36:31] yields are doing it's attracting new flows of capital so it's in a phase of its evolution where it's still discovering price and that will not be disrupted it can be altered temporarily short term again like we saw last year but um in the end once you start to add way more correlations to an asset and start to try and um you know sort of predict what
[37:01] other uh influences in other asset classes may have on bitcoin i think if you just run into the you just run into the risk of over complicating what it really is a fairly simple idea that bitcoin is very very young extremely young from a technology standpoint and being that it's money being that it's its whole sole purpose is to be money it's price from inception and we are still in that discovery mode of price so
[37:32] forget everything else bitcoin is on the path higher to uh finding that uh that ultimate sort of valuation and these correlations only serve to complicate what should not be a very complicated view of where bitcoining is going all right selling out getting out i get this question a lot you know i don't know just yet i haven't reached hasn't reached my targets hasn't reached the timing band hasn't
[38:02] reached a time frame haven't seen a massive mania blow off top nothing close we had a little bit of a taste of that in january and we've cooled off for these we've corrected a couple times and that's good it's good that we saw a 30 decline in january and a 25 decline in february that is the type of sentiment short-term sentiment resets that we need to keep the bull market sustainable we need to keep this rally
[38:33] contained enough where it doesn't blow off and induce at top on the four year cycle so in terms of when am i selling again i don't have the specific answer again they're not arbitrary numbers i don't want to see bitcoin extend and over achieve in this four year cycle and then me get out an arbitrary number in the future um i mean the goal
[39:05] of the four year cycle really is an attempt to get out of positions or get out of most of her positions near the top of the four year cycle that's not a specific number it's a timing decision it's a decision based on being able to identify near the area where we expect in a cycle for the mark at the top and be able to take some money off the table now people ask me all the time you know if bitcoin is going to 500 or a
[39:35] million dollars over the next uh let's call it you know five years or six years why are you getting out well i'm getting out because i want more bitcoin um and you know as an i'm an investor first i invest in all asset classes and i continue to invest in all asset classes even though i believe bitcoin will outperform those other asset classes i value where i am um in in this point in my life and i focus
[40:08] on risk so i like to be invested in other asset classes but as an investor i refuse to sit through a 80 decline in the value of my investment especially when i firm when i really confidently believe that we will see another significant decline people point out that if you huddled through the 2017 to 19 decline that you've now doubled your money since
[40:38] then yeah of course you have but you know what i got out at 20 000 you see the tweets in real time and i got in at 30 or 3 700 or so um so i want to try and replicate that type of thing again in the future will it be perfect probably not i mean there was a a decent sized position that i sold in 2017 around the 10 to 12 000 range as well thinking that that may
[41:09] have been the top it was four weeks too early and as you can see four weeks towards the end of the bull market can make a significant difference but even selling at 12 000 and buying back in at four was a very impactful decision to make so there's a chance now in this upcoming bull market top that selling four weeks too early right may look like a really bad decision so maybe selling something at 160
[41:39] 000 and then seeing it go to 300 000 that would look like a pretty poor decision to make but then again if we're looking for a move back down towards 50 or 60 000 by the end of the the next four year cycle it may not be so bad after all well what if you know what if the four year cycle load doesn't happen and that is also a possibility um it's a possibility that the next decline maybe i'm wrong on that
[42:10] right maybe we get a 30-40 decline and that's it and that's that's always a risk so if you sell some at the top if you sell most of at the top and it pulls back um you know what guarantee do you have that it will decline and there is no guarantee there's no guarantee in investing at all but i'm at the point now and this may not be the same case for you but i'm at the point where if i do sell near a top it's uh it's more than it's more than life changing it's more than being set and i will hold regardless of the four-year
[42:42] cycle low i will hold 25 of the four-year model through the next four-year cycle decline for insurance insurance for the upside possibility insurance that there is no major decline into a four-year cycle or maybe there's a consolidation over time with a small decline to maybe say 45 percent not giving affording me the ability to get in at what looks like a four-year cycle low
[43:12] before bitcoin continues if that would happen then it's not the end of the world holding 25 percent of the position that was bought at 4 000 and seeing bitcoin go to 400 000 above it's not the end of the world so i would be content with that possibility but again i'm not going to sit here and ride an 80 or a 70 70 percent decline into the next four year cycle it's almost the same as um predicting or starting this journey
[43:44] two years ago uh with the goal of of bitcoin 200 000 selling out at 50 and not seeing through to the end the declining phase of the four year cycle is something i see as well happening in the future so again i'm not going to sit there and say i really believe we're going to see a significant decline to the four-year cycle low and not take action to avert that possibility so that's something i definitely will be looking to do but again we're not there yet there's
[44:14] still time before that we still need to focus on the plan of being able to get to that goal of 150 and above or the top of the cycle and it's not going to be clean it's not going to be pretty it's not going to be perfect but getting out as much as possible at that top or near that top is the goal and that's always been the goal from this journey lastly what happens after this cycle well it's too early to talk about this it's too early to see because a lot of what you expect to see in the
[44:46] next four year cycle is predicated on what happens in the prior cycle so that's that's a lot of what this cycle analysis is all about is what's happening in prior cycles so we need to see how this cycle closes out uh or at least tops and declines before being able to make any real sort of uh educated uh provide educated analysis on what the next cycle may bring i think we're going to be looking for more price discovery early in the next
[45:16] four year cycle so another big rally but i think we could be looking at the possibility of a longer and larger sort of bear market in the next four year cycle and that's something i'm going to save for a video to come so i want to just and this video's gone for 45 minutes i want to start to wrap this up again not much has changed in all the videos i've produced over the last two years if you've enjoyed this video go back and watch some of the other ones they talk a lot about psychology and your emotions
[45:46] that again is where this is going to be made or lost for you and how you execute on your plan and the decisions that you make all the way up to the top it's not going to get easier like i said if we're going to have 10 000 updates and 20 000 up and down days it's not going to get easy and we're talking about bigger profits bigger paper open profits it's going to be hard to navigate that look at the last four year cycle at the end let me see if i can bring
[46:17] that up all right here it is right here last four weeks this is a weekly from 7 700 to twenty thousand thirteen thousand of that gain was made in the last four weeks if we peak at three hundred thousand in this cycle we may get a hundred and fifty thousand dollar move in the last four weeks of this cycle think about that 150 000 move potentially can come in the
[46:49] last four weeks in that four weeks you may get 20 declines you may get 20 30 000 declines it's not going to be easy it's not going to be easy at all but it's not going to be easy if you're not prepared and have the right mindset and you know approach it with the plan that you have but finally here's the quarterly chart this is the time frame you care about this takes out all the noise takes out
[47:20] all the wicks and the quarterly is telling us that we're now getting into the final stretch of the four year cycle we've exceeded the all-time highs we're firmly above the 10 quarterly moving average and now we're heading up towards the top again no guarantees on where that happens 150 350 maybe even 400 plus we don't know let's hope we can be there
[47:50] the goal is that you have as much of your position intact and ready to uh to exit when the time comes thanks again for following wish you all the best good luck to you and take care