yes i do believe we're going up to 150 000 or 200 in this four year cycle
MissDirection: correct. Covered 26.0% of the required move; closest approach $68,790 on 10-Nov-2021.
Bob Loukas
The Next Leg – 4 Year Journey
🇬🇧 EN🇪🇸 ES
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TL;DR
Audited predictions
Research summary
▶ Purpose of the series and investing uncertainty
Lucas opens on January 7, 2021, noting that Bitcoin has doubled since the prior video six weeks earlier and is near $40,000. He recalls the December 2018 video, released after a bear market decline of about 85%, which framed the downturn as a cyclical bottom and an opportunity for people who still believed in Bitcoin. He says the series aims to help viewers understand cycle position, potential outcomes, and the challenges of staying invested, rather than simply telling them to buy and hold. He stresses that his views can be wrong, that investment involves uncertainty, and that a portfolio plan should account for multiple outcomes. He says he will review charts and then answer questions about the portfolio, buying and selling, the rally, and general advice.
▶ Bitcoin thesis and four-year cycle outlook
Lucas describes Bitcoin’s history on a monthly chart, starting the first four-year cycle at the point when it reached $1 on exchanges and price discovery had meaningful liquidity. His investment thesis is that the network is expanding, adoption as a store of value is increasing, and time and trust may bring more capital into Bitcoin relative to assets such as dollars, euros, gold, bonds, or treasuries. He characterizes the current rally as institutionally driven, following earlier periods associated with technology and venture capital participants and then retail participation. He sees a secular upward trend despite major swings, and says Bitcoin’s roughly $550–600 billion market capitalization remains small compared with gold and total financial assets. In his cycle analysis, the market is around month 25 of a four-year cycle that began in December 2018, near its time midpoint; he expects a cycle top in the second half, with timing uncertain. He also speculates that a following cycle could top early and then spend about three years declining or consolidating, but says the immediate task is to execute the current cycle. His stated goal is to increase his Bitcoin holdings by selling near cycle highs and accumulating near the next bottom, rather than simply holding for distant price projections.
▶ Rally strength, possible corrections, and emotional preparation
Lucas says the market is ahead of his earlier guide models: Bitcoin has moved above the 2017 high while only around halfway through the four-year cycle. He sees growing separation from the 10-month moving average as a sign of froth, but says prior separation has sometimes preceded several more months of gains. He cites possible cycle targets of $100,000, $150,000, $200,000, or even $250,000 if a blow-off phase is beginning early, while emphasizing that these are scenarios rather than predictions. On the weekly chart, he says the accelerating rate of change may indicate a short-term top, but a 30–40% decline is also possible and would not invalidate the advance from the March 2020 lows. Such a pullback could reach the 10- or 20-week moving average; he notes that touching the 20-week average was common in earlier bull markets. He says he did not sell other positions in anticipation of the previously discussed possible 30% decline; the point was to prepare viewers and explain that a correction could be normal. He urges investors to decide in advance how they would react to a sharp fall, since unrealized gains can create fear and panic. His sale of a small amount at $28,000 was preplanned and intended partly to reduce that pressure; he suggests that people who expect they would panic might sell a small amount to realize some gains.
▶ Institutional rally and competing price paths
Lucas compares the current move with Bitcoin’s 2013 rise and silver in 2011, saying it resembles an orderly, spot-driven rally rather than a retail mania or speculative futures-led move. He says he sees little evidence of a large influx of new retail participants, while suggesting that institutions and capital seeking physical Bitcoin are driving demand. He compares the early 2013 move, which he describes as rising from $13 to $200 before a nearly six-month consolidation and a later advance to $1,200, with the possibility that the current rally could continue rapidly. He explicitly says he is not predicting Bitcoin will reach $257,000 within weeks, but sketches a scenario in which several more large weekly candles could bring the price to $100,000 by late January or mid-February, followed by a sharp correction. He also describes an alternative path: a quick rise and roughly 40% decline, potentially followed by consolidation through summer and a later cycle peak around October or November, with a broad $200,000-range estimate. He says the price targets are guides with wide uncertainty, and that both a near-term spike and correction or a longer rise are plausible. He believes the rally can be sustainable in the short term but expects a peak to be followed by a quick fall.
▶ Why he sold and why corrections remain possible
Lucas explains that he sold 5 BTC, about 15% of the model portfolio, at $28,000. The sale had been planned when Bitcoin was around $4,000–$5,000: in his worst-case cycle scenario, price would make a new high, rise about 20% beyond it, and top, so selling would recover the portfolio’s initial outlay. He also says realizing some profit made the position easier to hold and left him feeling that he could not lose money on the endeavor, while later clarifying that the model portfolio still had $30,000 of initial capital at risk. He rejects the view that institutions make 30% corrections impossible. In his account, at higher prices long-term holders, miners, and institutional buyers may take profits, increasing supply; potential institutional buyers may also hesitate after a rapid price rise, reducing demand. He therefore expects a 30% correction at some point, although it could happen before or after Bitcoin reaches $100,000 and could occur soon. He presents sharply opposing scenarios as reasonable responses to an unusually uncertain market.
▶ Model portfolio plans and upside hedge
Lucas says the model portfolio represents each $100,000 invested through a four-year cycle, so followers can apply the same proportions to their own circumstances. He reports that it holds 30 BTC, shows Bitcoin around $39,200, and values the portfolio at about $1.1 million with about $1.1 million in profit; he also says the initial outlay has been covered and describes purchases of 25 BTC at the start, another purchase in September 2019, five more in March during the collapse, and the recent sale of five at $28,000. He acknowledges that if Bitcoin went to zero, the model would lose $30,000. He has no fixed target for the next sale. If Bitcoin rallies above $65,000 over the next few weeks without a 30% decline, he may sell another 5 BTC, because he sees an outside chance of a top around $90,000–$100,000 in the next two or three months followed by a long downturn. If the rally continues toward roughly $75,000–$80,000 over the next three or four weeks, he says he would consider selling five BTC. If instead a 30% pullback occurs, he says he would look for six-figure Bitcoin before selling more. He prefers a pullback as a way to allow backfilling and profit-taking and, in his view, support a more sustainable bull market. He also decides to dedicate 10 BTC, or one third of the remaining position in the model, to a never-sell, always-hold position as protection against an extreme upside outcome such as a cycle that runs much longer than expected or Bitcoin rising dramatically without revisiting the expected cycle low. He says this position should remain under the holder’s control, preferably in multisignature storage.
▶ Advice for late buyers and identifying a cycle top
For people who sold near $20,000 and remain on the sidelines, Lucas says buying at earlier levels such as $18,000, $22,000, $28,000, $32,000, or $36,000 would have worked out so far, though buying at $40,000 could still prove to be near a top. For friends and family asking how to enter after a 300% rise in two months, he recommends building a core position they are comfortable with if their goal is exposure to a possible $150,000–$250,000 Bitcoin, while accepting volatility and a possible drawdown of up to 40% without panic selling. He says investors who cannot tolerate that risk could sell a small amount to reduce stress. He describes identifying the end of the bull market as discretionary and dependent partly on the market’s character; a blow-off peak may be easier for him to recognize in real time than a top without one. He says he is not prepared to consider a major top before after summer, more likely toward year-end, and not before Bitcoin reaches six figures.
▶ Risk limits, adding to holdings, and closing remarks
Lucas advises against putting everything into Bitcoin or borrowing to invest, saying an all-in position can impair decision-making. He says his own circumstances differ from those of a younger investor: he is in his late 40s, has had a successful career, and does not need to risk everything to make more. He describes selling some holdings as a way to take profits while letting the rest grow. On adding to a hold position, he says he previously would not add above the prior cycle high of $20,000; he considers new income or dollar-cost averaging reasonable cases for buying, but says the risk and reward are less favorable now than when Bitcoin was at $5,000. He characterizes the opportunity as still tilted positively, but with more downside risk and less upside than before. He closes by describing the video as his personal experience and approach, thanks viewers, and wishes them well for 2021.
Full transcript
[00:02] hello four-year journey members it's bob lucas here on january the 7th 2021. i hope you're doing well and happy new year to you thanks for being here i want to wish you and your friends and your family all the very best for 2021 a healthy happy and very prosperous year ahead we hope for you um look this is it's been six weeks since the last video and a lot has changed bitcoin has doubled we're well on the way to that prosperous 2021 that we've been looking at now for
[00:34] more than two years since the last video well the first video was released back in december of 2018 when it just looked so bad for bitcoin after more than a year of a bear market an 85 percent decline there were a lot of people that had just basically given up on this had lost a lot of money and the first four year cycle video was all about rebirth was all about raising and coming out of the ashes and
[01:05] the cyclical nature of these cycles is simply that from a summer to a winter and back to a summer through the spring and the fall seasons everything has you know has its phases and at that point in 2018 december the first video was all about just highlighting the fact that cyclically we were at a bottom or very nearer bottom and that was time for action if you had still believed in bitcoin and believed in its future and its
[01:35] possibility were where it stood presented you with an amazing or an amazing possibility or potential if you took advantage and for those that did whether it was then or soon after or even even over the last few months you're still sitting in a very very good position obviously and the whole goal of these this video series was not so much to say that uh you know buy bitcoin now and hold it later on it was all about
[02:06] what it takes to be able to get through that process to identify where we are in the cycle where what the potential is for bitcoin in the future and what that might mean for you and some of the challenges that you will face getting to that point and getting to where we are today to be able to eventually realize that opportunity that bitcoin is providing us and here we are today just shy of 40 000 um earlier than what i had expected
[02:36] in previous models that i've shown and they've just been guides i did not look for bitcoin to really get through that all-time 20 000 level and not until march or april of this year so we're already four or five months ahead of what many people thought was far too optimistic in my cycle initial theory and here we are though we're at forty thousand it doesn't look like it it wants to give up yet it's relentless and i'm hoping if anything this
[03:06] these videos have given you the tools or the ammunition and and put your head in the right space to be able to appreciate where we are hold that position possibly take a little bit off and be able to sustain the move and ride this cycle to the eventual highs that i think are going to be much higher than this place and come out of this having been rewarded for that effort so that's what i wanted
[03:37] to introduce you to today i have received many questions over the last few months and i've listed here on the screen the ones that were most frequent and most liked and i think they cover the gambit of what people wanted to hear and i will try and elaborate on each of these this may end up being a long video i'm going to speak very freely and just openly none of it's sort of scripted just whatever comes to mind i'm just gonna just present it to you and i'm hoping
[04:09] again like all previous videos that it resonates and there is some value in this again this is only one man's experience one man's views my views are often wrong uh in trading and investing nobody is anywhere near close to being right the majority of the time or all the time so that uh that's the case for me and um the goal is to to realize maybe when you're wrong or and and things aren't working out and to have a plan for that and i think that's
[04:39] where the model portfolio tries to accommodate being wrong because being wrong is part of trading and investing and that also applies to something like bitcoin in this long-term idea i know many people are so convinced 100 convinced that there is only one way that bitcoin will resolve itself and and maybe to some extent i think they'll be right but it doesn't mean that there aren't any risks so again the whole point of this is to be able to
[05:10] cover the spectrum of possibilities and have at least some form of a plan for that spectrum of possibilities so here we are now we're looking at these questions of course like i do in all the videos i will start off of where we are on the charts i'll go over the charts try and make some sense of what's going on and then i'll just get into these questions and they're all pretty much related to either the portfolio buying selling um the pump that we're seeing right now
[05:40] and then just some advice in general on how to take advantage of this as well so i'll cover all these questions i'll go back and forth so let's get into it the first chart i want to show is the monthly essentially capturing the entire uh evolution of bitcoin going back to when it first really appeared on exchanges it hit that one dollar mark that's where i marked the beginning of the first four year cycle from a trading or price
[06:10] standpoint this is where real price discovery began there was some decent liquidity that's the beginning of the four year cycle and if you recall from the first video the main thesis for this is that bitcoin is um gaining momentum the network is expanding at a rapid pace and adoption of bitcoin as a store of value has only increased and as the network increases and more people believe it is a true store of
[06:41] value then there's going to be more trust in that network the more trust that develops the more capital that flows into it and people then trust the network enough where they say i would prefer to hold some value in bitcoin versus us dollar euro gold or any other asset class like a bond or a trade or a treasury for example so it becomes a conscious decision as the network grows to allocate your capital to um to certain asset classes and it's
[07:13] all about trust and as we go on here the more trust that develops the more value we will see and this is exactly what we're seeing right now with the current wave i talked about this wave being an institutional last year in many of the videos this was more of a retail phenomenon this first cycle here was more of the really smart vc money uh silicon valley money that type of thing that pushes higher this was the retail ico phase and now with the right platforms in place and
[07:44] some of the regulatory um back some of the regulatory that's in place we now have the onboarding of larger volume capital from the institutional space that's driving this higher what i've always said however is that if you believe in the properties of bitcoin and you believe the network is growing and it's only really about time and time equals trust trust equals value this is what it's been about as it as time goes on and each block is
[08:16] mined in the chain and with each block the network availability remains as is and the security of one's value is then reinforced what you end up having is more value is it comes into the network but overall as i've always said even though you have massive swings and gyrations overall the trend here is a secular it's a trend that just goes higher over time right over time it's pretty consistent
[08:47] it comes back to a mean it goes below a but overall it is consistent here on this log chart and i think there's no reason why for now at least at a market cap of still only what is it 550 600 billion there is no reason why that needs to end in the near term future it's still only a fraction of what the gold market cap is at and obviously a very tiny fraction of
[09:17] total assets in in the financial system as a whole so it still is even at this forty thousand dollar level or close to forty thousand it still is a relatively insignificant asset class and that's good that's good for early adopters like us because there is still a lot of upside left in unlocking that value and by having our position we will then realize a lot of that value
[09:47] over time so the chart is again self-explanatory it's the same chart i've shown you in almost every single video and i think there isn't any doubt now that we have a right translated four year cycle that's in play we've been talking about this and waiting about waiting for this but we are now a month 25 of this four year cycle here only just hit the midway point of the cycle
[10:18] so if you look at month 24 here which was uh last month in december december being the two year anniversary of the bear market lows and then you go out to the next four next two years to the next four year cycle expected low not from a price standpoint that's just arbitrary just from a time standpoint we're at the midpoint here so we've always expected the top in this four year cycle marked from december 2018 to somewhere around
[10:49] the end of 2022 we've always thought the top should come in the second half of that cycle so obviously if you look at this being the midway point somewhere in this area again that's arbitrary the last time it occurred almost exactly on the three year mark if that's the case we're talking about december 2021 but that's that's that's very fluid in any cycle it doesn't have to occur right there a similar point right here was around the three year mark but it's possible that it comes earlier
[11:20] like october it's also possible it comes later there's no way of really knowing what's important is that we've made a new high so we have a very clear secular uptrend here with the four year cycle of now rising but now we have one two now we have a third top regardless of where this cycle tops we're going to have a higher high again and that's the definition of a long-term secular uptrend it's also the reason why uh in the 16-year time frame a 16-year cycle
[11:52] that we now have this secular trend so we've got one two three and i believe we will make another high in this fourth cycle that follows this but i think that one has the chance a very significant chance of topping very early in that cycle and then spending more like three years in a declining phase doesn't have to be significant from a price perspective what's more important is from a time perspective that it does retrace and consolidate so
[12:22] looking at maybe one year off from the next four year cycle low to a peak forming left translated if you look again from a date standpoint from the expected cycle low out 48 months to the next expected cycle low which would be in december 2026 and you draw the midpoint there just like we did right here so there's the midpoint roughly
[12:54] in this next cycle here to follow we'll be looking for a left translated top so a top that occurs in the first half of the cycle possibly one year in one top that should likely exceed the high from this current four year cycle and then spend three years either mostly consolidating i don't expect a massive decline but certainly a decline down into this
[13:24] four-year cycle low that could be anywhere up at this at this point and then we begin yet another 16-year cycle that follows but that's getting really far ahead of ourselves right now we need to execute on this four-year cycle a lot of people love talking about what's going to happen in 2026-28 and and and on how bitcoin's going to be worth 1 million 2 million and 3 million and that's great and and we hope to be there and we will be there when that time comes but the goal of
[13:54] this here is not just to huddle i could have said from the beginning just huddle guys by the end of the next decade bitcoin is going to be three million dollars a coin just wait for that i mean that's that's true right i mean people are doing that people are just huddling for for whenever for the future for the for the time when bitcoin becomes a reserve currency but this series of videos is not about that my goal is to increase the amount of bitcoin that i hold
[14:24] through the four year cycle so by selling as close as possible or as much as possible near the highs of the four year cycle and accumulating as much as possible at the next bottom as well and this is the goal of the videos that we have here so overall everything here looks to be going to plan if anything is going and is ahead of plan we are now clearly or comfortably above the prior highs from 2017 and we're just at the halfway mark of
[14:54] this four year cycle all looking good we are starting to see some separation now between the price and 10 month moving average suggesting here that it's getting a little too speculative a little frothy is maybe what you can call it and that's true and generally when you see separation like this in the for in the the price you begin to think that we're in the final stretch of the the four-year cycle blow-off um just like you saw here as it really started to separate you started seeing
[15:25] that final push still plenty of room load left in this typically even when you see this separation here there was another four or five months to go from there so there is still plenty of room left if this is the final blow-off heading to an early top in the cycle then we're still looking at those price targets i've always talked about the 100 plus 150 200 maybe even as high as 250 000 are all in play if this is an early
[15:56] start to the blow-off move i don't think that's the case and i'm going to cover a couple of scenarios very shortly but that is one thing we need to just be aware of and we're prepared for that as you know looking at it from a weekly here it is right here so we're starting to get you know the rate of change here in this in this move is really starting to accelerate here suggesting that we're heading up towards some type of at least short term top we haven't seen
[16:26] that 30 pullback that i talked about in the last video as something that happens often and frequently and i hope some people took that literally and said well you saw you said it's going to go down 30 yeah i said it's possible and that it happens in the past and that's what investing is about looking at prior behavior of an asset and trying to be prepared for that but at the same time we did not remove or sell any other position in any anticipation of that the objective of highlighting that
[16:58] possibility was simply to prepare you in the event that we had a 30 or 40 percent decline that it was normal in a bull market up trend that you don't want to lose your position and that if anything you want to add to your position on that possibility but right now we are in what i consider to be an outlier environment or outlier movement meaning that we're seeing price action or behavior here that even by bitcoin standards and its
[17:29] history of extreme volatility is not something we see that often at all we saw a glimpse of this briefly here in 2019 obviously in 2017 and obviously in the last or the the cycle before that the four year cycle with um with the the double move here in 2013. there's only really been four like moves in its entire 10 or 11 years so when you have an outlier move like this when you have any asset class behaving in an outlier
[18:01] environ in an outlier sort of situation you need to take a step back and say to yourself i have no control over what this is doing i cannot predict what it's doing because we are in a situation right now where in three weeks time i think we can be up at 80 000 maybe even 90 000 and this would fit this mini sort of parabola structure very well we could also
[18:31] comfortably drop right here find the top and do a 35 decline into and down back towards just the 10 week moving average or even just the 20-week moving average i mean in prior bull markets hitting the 20-week moving average was a very common occurrence and as you can see the separation now between the 20-week moving average and price is very pronounced almost as pronounced as the top here in 2017. so
[19:02] on the flip side then seeing a decline of 35 40 percent is not out of the question again it's not a prediction it's a possibility and the point of these videos is to be able to point out possibilities so you are prepared when those events occur the whole goal of successful investing is to understand what could go wrong and not so much what could go right we already know what
[19:32] could go right we got in this space early on because we thought the opportunity was there that bitcoin was going to six figures that's been the plan from the beginning we don't need to convince ourselves otherwise but we also need to be prepared on the way up to that point on what could happen and right here a drop of 35 40 percent would not destroy or alter the bullish nature of this advance off the march 2020 lows a decline of 40 percent
[20:05] doesn't even get you to price from december the 20th that's how bullish this move has been that's how extreme this move has been um so to be prepared for that you need to understand now what would you do on a 40 15 000 price decline what would you do in if within the next five days that was to occur are you going to sell all your bitcoin because you just sat here calculating all of the money you have made
[20:35] here now in this move and that's stuck in your mind that you think that's that open profit belongs to you it doesn't belong to you obviously if you if you think in btc terms like some of you do um and you only care about the you know the the nominal value of your btc then then really these videos aren't for you because you've already you know you're all ahead of us you know you already think that bitcoin to the next reserve currency you just want to hold bitcoin you don't care about the usd price but for us who want to who view this
[21:06] from a usd price um from a purchasing power price you're looking at 40 000 in price and looking at the profit and then all of a sudden in five days or ten trading days it's now almost cut in half excuse me and and so then you panic and you and you start to really sort of kick yourself and punch yourself thinking why the hell didn't i get some profit there or do something so you need to be prepared for that and that's another reason why i'll cover
[21:37] this in a minute why i sold a little bit at the 28 000 level which is a pre-planned sale because i wanted to just release some of that pressure that builds up the pressure of the profit i mean it's a good position to be in to be in such a huge profitable position and um but that comes with stress it comes with um a worry that you're gonna lose it because it's not realized yet and because it's not realized there is
[22:07] there is fear and when the market dro so you have fear now with open profit think about that fearing your profit and then it drops 30 or 40 percent how do you feel so again the ex the purpose of these videos is to make you aware that it's a possibility it's a real possibility based on bitcoin's history and you need to know that you shouldn't panic at that point and if you think right now that you're going to panic and sell all of your bitcoin
[22:37] then maybe sell a little bit of it small amount just to sort of reward yourself pat yourself on the back and say i made some money okay so that's one uh idea here but look otherwise what do i think is going on well this move is now mostly unlike the 17 move now we did have this really big surge from making all-time high dropping and then we we did search quickly here so
[23:07] this developed a decent separation from the 10 and 20 week moving average and then when that finally topped it it declined by i think it was almost 40 percent and this is crude here but yeah you can see it's 40 just around 40 percent and that was normal right and and you can see it was a v-shaped recovery you had one wick down and then one week an engulfing candle and then it just kept going so why not
[23:39] why not why can't we see yet again a 40 or 35 decline back to that 20-week moving average and then a v-shaped it's a possibility be prepared for it that's what it would look like but i'm starting and and maybe this is from a contrarian standpoint what a contrarian a bearish contrarian would want to hear but i'm starting to think that wearing something and i tweeted this out two
[24:09] weeks ago this this feels a lot like the silver move of 2011 and also to some extent looks like the 2013 move in bitcoin in its first big peak if you look at this here this is the um the move in 2013 let me go back to the four year cycle on the monthly and when i look at the candles here and look at the date range
[24:40] that occurred here on month 21 so almost at that midpoint of the cycle just short of that and this is that pump right there this is the first big one that created a lot of separation on the monthly over a sort of a four-month period this to me and you can see the nature of this structure of this riding the upper weekly bollinger bands this has a lot of the same characteristics and feeling of a lockout move that um
[25:12] people just really can't believe is occurring so it occurs without the blow-off like speculation and frothiness i mean yes people are excited on social media but it's all the same characters it's all the same people mostly for the most part that are excited and jumping up and down it's confirmation of them sticking through the bear market i see it on twitter i mean the twitter growth is not going through the roof there isn't a whole lot of new retail
[25:42] participants from what i can see that's jumping in i've got friends who are like hey i know you're into bitcoin you know you're probably doing okay but none of them are calling and saying how do i get in man what's going on what's going on there's some of that but it's nothing nothing nothing like what it was in 17. it's nothing like what it was in gold when i was doing a lot of that in 2011 my point is it doesn't feel like like that mania final blow-off phase and
[26:12] here we are double the price from 2017 here we are up 30 000 in the last two months alone so my point is that this is an institutional driven play even in the futures markets i mean the the volume is in the spot exchanges funding rates just they're not going to extremes they get cleaned down every now and then but this is a spot driven rally it's a physical driven rally it's it's money and capital that wants to own
[26:45] physical bitcoin it's not the speculative futures driven markets that is driving the price right here and it reminds me a lot of this because even though i wasn't not invested in bitcoin in 2013 i was heavily into tech and i know that this early period right here 13 was really the first time that the some of the the silicon valley vcs and a lot of the tech folks the money that got in
[27:15] drove this higher here the first time and then it was reinforced the second time so this here was the first before that it was all just sort of hobbyists techies uh libertarians all that sort of thing right this is the price at the 10 range and below this is when you had the first sort of smart money that came into the market and they just drove this higher relentlessly and this went from thirteen dollars to two hundred dollars
[27:46] a 10x move and then we had this lengthy consolidation of almost six months and then we had that final blow off to the 1200 where there was a definitely some more retail participation i think something like this is going on again and i alluded to that just um two weeks ago in twitter here we are now i'm looking at the price about the clock forty thousand dollars congratulations everybody that's uh that's great um but going back to these charts this is where i think we're at and
[28:16] if that's the case if you look at this closely orderly candles above the bollinger bands and then the rated chains really accelerates and what you see here is that from this entire move of two thousand percent uh the majority of it right because it's a log chart um the majority of that move occurred here in the last three weeks or last
[28:47] four weeks so even though if you're sitting here at 13 bitcoin and all of a sudden you know it's at 47 well it's not too different to sitting here at um you know if you look at 13 add a few zeros to that and go to 13 000 and then you get to this sort of point right here and it's at what 48 dollars so add a few more zeros again and becomes 48 000 not too dissimilar to where we are but then look at this peak right here at 257 dollars now
[29:18] add a few more zeros and then you get the idea um now again i'm not i'm not suggesting we're going to 257 000 over the next few weeks um not at all but what i am suggesting is that if this sort of parabolic move can remain sustainable even just for four more weeks and you get and you notice how orderly this is now you're starting to see it really poke above the weekly bollinger bands what if you get
[29:48] three or four more of these massive candles all of a sudden by the end of january or mid-february you're sitting at a hundred thousand bitcoin and there's your first real peak much earlier than everybody expected um people have been talking about cycles going out to 2027 and 24 and lengthening and so on and here we are shortening if anything there's a rush to bitcoin this is obvious there is real capital flooding in and this is just
[30:18] going crazy so we could while this move is sustained it's going to keep increasing at this rate of change it's very rare once something gets to this sort of escape velocity type action that it just pauses for any period of time we've had a couple of pauses already i don't think this really pauses now until it tops and when it tops for this move it's going to decline 40 percent i do believe that but i don't know where that top comes and if this rate of change continues then like i said we could be by mid
[30:50] february uh or early february at the hundred thousand dollar level and then we can put in a forty percent drop back to fifty sixty thousand i don't know at that point right that's the whole point of an outlier move you don't know all you can just say is i don't know but this is what could happen and i'm going to be ready for it and this is what i want to say so this is what we could be doing and then we could be pausing or consolidating for a good portion of the
[31:23] 2021 period into the summer months and then we continue and go up towards that top in the latter part of the year and if we go back to the monthly chart here here it is and this would be the right translated october november kind of peak and you still get the same result where we're looking at sort of that peak in that 200 000 range give or take a very very wide margin and it's difficult to say but we're
[31:54] looking at something kind of like this now over the next month right and then we drop consolidate consolidate and then peak okay again numbers are arbitrary they're guides they're not predictions we're just trading this secular uptrend look at here it is right well are you going to be surprised with this look at the uptrend it's what we've been talking about from the beginning there it is like that
[32:24] is that a surprise to you it's not a surprise to me and this is what i've been invested in from the beginning and this has been my goal and remains my goal to this date i can't be any clearer than that when we try and get too detailed in this analysis you get analysis paralysis you just start talking over and over and but this is very clear secular bull market trust capital inflows institutional four year cycle it's all pointing to me
[32:54] in the same direction and being early to this four year cycle there is no way in how i'm gonna miss out on it getting up to this level so that's where we stand in the four-year cycle all right so is this pump sustainable i think i just answered that question it is sustainable for the short term the rate of change tells me that it's sustainable but it will reach a peak and when it does it should fall back quickly next few
[33:26] questions two of these combined why are you selling when bitcoin will become the world's reserve currency why did you sell five btc and the more model portfolio at 28 000 when you said it's going over one hundred thousand so a lot some people are confused by this most are not most people get it but i said i'm gonna sell uh five bcc which was only 15 of the model portfolio 28k when bitcoin was at 5000 when i was buying it at 4 000.
[33:56] that was my plan because it represented the initial outlay of the portfolio so i said when we get to 28 that is probably the worst case scenario in from a risk management standpoint i said to myself that if we were going to get a left translated cycle that we would get to a new time all-time high probably do a 20 move above that and top that was my absolute worst case scenario and all i wanted to do
[34:27] was take out the absolute worst case scenario put the initial outlay back in my pocket and then be happy that was the main reason for doing that [Music] also another reason for doing that is again as i described as price gets higher and you have a massive open profit in your position it becomes difficult to hold and by taking a little bit off a table at a pre-planned level it feels
[34:57] rewarding you feel as if you've accomplished something you take some off the table which basically means you're now uh risk-free right you you're not risk-less because you have open profit you can give up but you can't walk away with losing money from this endeavor so right now i can't lose no matter what happens bitcoin would have to go to zero and i still wouldn't lose and that's powerful position for me personally to be in um and i feel good about
[35:27] where we stand there so this one comes up all the time and it's it's coupled with uh people telling me over and over again that we'll never see 30 corrections because the institutional play is too great and i'm telling you and i don't like to say in absolute terms but i think you're definitely wrong now this current move may not give us any 30 decline to 100 like i just showed but it
[35:58] will top and when it does top it will correct 30 percent and institutions won't rush in to buy because what is happening or what's going to happen is we're going to get to a point where we're going to unlock certain levels in price that you're going to get long-term hodlers or miners or even the folks even institutions that bought in that 18 or 20k they're going to start to say well we just made 200 or 300 on our money let's sell some let's sell all
[36:28] you just don't know so you what i'm getting at is you get to a certain point where you do unlock there's some price discovery that occurs you get some more supply unlocked and you get less demand because at some point in the short term it's even institutional folks they say we wanted to buy let's call it a 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin and they couldn't get approval board approval regulatory approval whatever the case may be and they wanted to buy a 20 and now it's sitting at 60. they're going to second guess they're humans as well they're going to start to
[36:59] say well do we want to buy now at 60. so what i'm getting at is demand begins to at some point at least be second guessing question and supply begins to increase so you will at some point have to find a level uh that enforces profit taking and that um then you know ushers in a period of of decline so 30 corrections will come but it may not come until we hit 100 000 and we may go straight up or it may happen tomorrow it may even
[37:30] happen by the time this video comes out that's the important thing i'm okay in giving you two absolutely extreme and opposing scenarios to me that is not any sign of weakness that is to me uh respecting the market and saying that we're in this outlier situation and both of those scenarios would not be surprising it should not be surprising to any investor that has as has done any real investing um given where we are today so i would
[38:01] not be surprised either way but we will get a 30 correction at some point okay model portfolio changes exit this portfolio has been available to all from the very beginning it's a model portfolio designed to show how every unit of one hundred thousand dollars invested performs over the four year cycle it's not um and people would take if they're following this any ratio of that one hundred thousand dollar model
[38:31] and apply it to their own situation so 100 000 was an easier way and around sort of a round way to be able to illustrate the performance of the model so we are sitting on in this model 30 btc the price here is showing at 30 04 39 200 the portfolio is worth 1.1 million and we're currently sitting on a 1.1 million dollar profit on the portfolio so for a hundred thousand dollar investment
[39:01] we're sitting on a 1.1 billion dollar profit and we've covered our initial outlay we bought obviously 25 bitcoin with a start here bought another september 2019 then bought another five in march at the collapse and just sold recently five at twenty eight thousand we still have thirty thousand capital the initial uh portfolio at risk so i wasn't exactly truthful when i said bitcoin went to zero i'd lose nothing
[39:31] uh the model portfolio would lose thirty thousand dollars of course we're not going to get to that point people want to know what my next targets are and this is where it becomes highly discretionary i don't have arbitrary targets for the rest of this the first one um was a target based specifically on where the four year cycle may top in a worst case scenario and also represented getting back a lot of my capital the next one however
[40:02] is going to be arbitrary uh sorry discretionary is the word um it's going to be discretionary as this moves up and to be perfectly honest with you there is a possibility and a strong possibility that i will be selling some if and here's the condition listen to it very carefully if we rally to above 65 000 over the next few weeks so without a 30 decline at that point i would be looking
[40:33] at possibly selling 5btc and the reason for that is yes i do believe we're going up to 150 000 or 200 in this four year cycle but just like the reason for selling my first five btc i think there is an outside chance that and it's only an outside chance we are going to be going to a top here over the next two or three months
[41:03] maybe around the 90 or 100 000 level and then this four year cycle for whatever reason chops and chops and chops and eventually finds a four year cycle low somewhere at the thousand dollar level before going again unlikely but hey when you're in at 3 700 3800 and you can take possibly a little more of a table i would but again it is dependent
[41:35] on this move continuing if we get a 30 retracement i would prefer that right now i think that keeps the bull market more intact it allows for some backfilling and some profit taking and i think that allows for a more sustainable bull market that is more like the 2017 move so here it is here i pull back right now is more sustainable and if we get a pullback i would not have a price target under 100 000
[42:07] for the for any bitcoin so i hope you understood that the target is not uh it's still discretionary it's uh it's fluid but i would if this continues over the next three or four weeks heading up to sort of 80 75 80 000 i would be looking to take five btc off because there's a chance it's a final move unlikely but there's a chance i do want to see however more of that pullback here it is here like we saw in 17 a 30 pullback and if
[42:39] we get that then going back to the model portfolio it becomes uh becomes discretionary again and i'd be looking for six-figure bitcoin before taking some off the table okay the next change i'm going to add to this portfolio it hasn't been updated but i've decided that there is a chance that we go into some type of hyper bitcoinization in this cycle and picking a top in that
[43:12] would be almost impossible so i'm gonna now allocate or dedicate 10 btc of my portfolio into a never huddle position sorry never sell position always huddle so i've decided more recently that it probably from a risk standpoint from upside risk standpoint from a standpoint of what if this just goes and it doesn't
[43:44] look back and it ignores the four year cycle low it's a small pullback for two or three months in a four year cycle so let's look at this what if it does here's the next four year cycle due what if it does what's called an extreme right translated cycle what if it doesn't top until september or august of 2022 what if it just goes and goes and goes and
[44:16] yeah i'm talking crazy numbers and i don't believe that's the case but come on who are we falling here bitcoin i mean this has been a crazy experience a crazy journey there is nothing that really would surprise me so as a as an insurance player almost as i've protected myself on the downside i need to in this environment protect myself from the upside and have 10 btc you don't need more than
[44:46] 10 right because if we're talking about a situation where bitcoin is going to say straight to a million or even two in this four year cycle having 10 btc you're gonna be just fine okay and i don't mean uh 10 uh in a nominal sense but it's 10 of your 30 or it's one of your three or it's 100 of your 300 so it's a ratio it's basically keeping a third of what you have left
[45:16] in the wallet hopefully on a multi-sig um not on the custodians well not the custodians while in your control um so i'm keeping that 10 for the upside extreme possibility just like i sold five for the extreme worst case scenario i'm keeping 10 for the extreme upside scenario okay so that's going to be reflected in the model portfolio of the next few days
[45:46] going forward okay this is already becoming a long video so i want to start to pick up the pace a little bit here advice for those who sold at 20k are still on the sidelines what's best for them you know i get this question you wouldn't be surprised how often i get this more than two or three times a day i get i got this when i was uh when i still am heavily involved in gold but the last gold bull market you get this in every bull market what do you do i sold and now it's gone
[46:17] up a lot and it's it's just you're deer in headlights you don't know what to do because you fear by buying now you're buying the top and you know what there's a chance you will buy the top especially in bitcoin at 40. but i was getting asked the question at 18 000. i was getting asked the question at 22 at 28 32 36 all these little levels i was getting asked the same thing and if you just had bought at that point you'd be okay even now i showed you a 40 decline
[46:51] is only 23 or 24 000. you still would have been the profit if you sold at 20 and got back in so my and this also pertains to uh i'm not sure if the question was here i actually grouped it with this but a lot of people asked i have friends and family they want to get in but what do i tell them what do we do well again when the market's up 300 percent in two months there's never an easy answer to this but if bitcoin is going to be or bitcoin gets to 80 or 100 000 over the next
[47:22] month or so um should you have bought at 38 000 i think the answer is yes if your goal is what i described bitcoin at 150 or 200 or 250 is it time to buy now would you buy now if i told you bitcoin is going to 200 000 um but it may or may not go through a 30 decline before then and what would you do i think the answer is you would buy right so my answer to
[47:53] everybody is get a core position you're happy with and comfortable with get something where you're in you you know you've got a footing and a foundation in this space but at the same time do it knowingly knowing that you could experience you will experience some volatility and you could experience a drawdown of up to 40 in the bull market but not to panic and to realize that that was just the penalty you paid for either not listening or for selling or for not
[48:24] listening to your friend or your family when they said to buy but you are focused on the four-year cycle top you are focused on 150 to 200 000 bitcoin price and that's the goal of the investment and if you frame it like that it shouldn't be all that difficult to do how do you remain in position when profit drops 4 30 40 well i think that's what every video has been about hasn't it so go back and watch the videos this is what it's been about understanding the
[48:54] volatility of bitcoin the nature of this market how it can drop 30-40 percent and if you think you can't handle it take some off the table i've said it before it's better to take some now and see price double in the future than it is to not take any now see a 30 or 40 decline sell it all and then it goes back up that's worse that's a thousand times worse so take a little bit off if you can't handle it but otherwise mentally prepare yourself for that possibility how do you identify
[49:26] when the bull market ends i want to hold through the major corrections but certainly not the bear mark well of course this is going to be 1 000 discretionary feeling of the market it's going to help or we're going to need to see a blow-off like environment to make it easier i'm not saying it's easy but it certainly is easy when you get the massive parabola peak move in a market i at least personally i
[49:58] think i've gone through enough of them now to be at least be able to identify them in real time and get out pretty close to the top it's the ones that don't give you that full-blown blow-off that can be difficult but i think from a there's a number of things we're going to focus on here we're going to focus on time in the four-year cycle i'm not really prepared to entertain any top now until at least post-summer and more likely towards the end of the year and also price i'm not really
[50:28] prepared to entertain a major top until we get to the six figure range for for bitcoin how to prepare for a black swan on btc protecting yourself well it's simple just don't you know put every single thing into this i know some people have everything in this it's everything's riding on this and it's make or break and you know i want kudos to you i mean if i was 22 i i would probably do the same thing i'm not 22. i'm in my late 40s um i've built and had a successful
[50:58] career and um you know it's been it's been good for me i'm in a position where i don't need to risk anymore you know i've made what i need to make um this is this is fun this is great and of course you know making some more is always welcomed but i'm not going to risk everything i've done to make more than i need because i don't need really much more so for me personally to answer this question how do i prepare myself well i don't risk enough where it's going to kill me that's simple as that
[51:29] and as you know from the model portfolio um i've already taken enough off where i don't even have any risk in this market anymore i have trading risk i have you know quite a bit in the trading account for bitcoin but it's the same thing um so point here is um if you've got something to lose something you've built don't risk everything on this certainly don't borrow for this i know you feel it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and in some regards it's a obviously a
[51:59] huge opportunity but but don't go all in completely and because it does in it does inhibit your decision-making process and that could end up hurting you otherwise again another strategy is to sell a little bit here and there be okay with selling a little bit taking big profit off the table to allow the rest to grow and that's important and then what is a realistic level to add to a huddle position well ideally anything before the prior four
[52:30] year cycle highs i always said i'm not going to add a single dime to bitcoin above 20 000. i think people who are adding above 20 000 really need to understand that they've made some some pretty significant investment mistakes now i'm not talking about people that are just getting into this if you're just being introduced to bitcoin of course you know you didn't know right but i'm talking about the people if you were in bitcoin or if you've been following it and bitcoin is at 4 000 6 thousand ten
[53:00] and now you wanna add more the only excuse for that would be that you have earning new money and you wanna put that to work that's fine talking about if you're sitting there idle idle with a counter now you're like ah should i put some more in that to me is not something that sits well with me from an investor standpoint i wanted to put my allocation in early and i did and i don't think there is any realistic level now unless you're dollar cost averaging you've come across some new money you want to put to work those are the situations where i think
[53:31] it's reasonable but at some point the asymmetrical opportunity at least for this four year cycle begins to dwindle meaning there's more downside risk and there's less of the upside that it was when bitcoin was at 5 000 the upside was massive the downside was small now it's not the same equation it's still skewed to the positive but it's not the same equation at all so i hope this video like all the prior
[54:02] videos have been helpful this again is from a disclaimer standpoint my experience my journey my thoughts the way i'm approaching it the way i'm trading this the way i'm investing this if it helps you that's great that's what they're there for i didn't ask for anything in return and i won't in the future again thanks for being here thanks for following i appreciate you i want to wish you again happy 2021 all the best to you thanks again
[54:32] take care
[00:34] more than two years since the last video well the first video was released back in december of 2018 when it just looked so bad for bitcoin after more than a year of a bear market an 85 percent decline there were a lot of people that had just basically given up on this had lost a lot of money and the first four year cycle video was all about rebirth was all about raising and coming out of the ashes and
[01:05] the cyclical nature of these cycles is simply that from a summer to a winter and back to a summer through the spring and the fall seasons everything has you know has its phases and at that point in 2018 december the first video was all about just highlighting the fact that cyclically we were at a bottom or very nearer bottom and that was time for action if you had still believed in bitcoin and believed in its future and its
[01:35] possibility were where it stood presented you with an amazing or an amazing possibility or potential if you took advantage and for those that did whether it was then or soon after or even even over the last few months you're still sitting in a very very good position obviously and the whole goal of these this video series was not so much to say that uh you know buy bitcoin now and hold it later on it was all about
[02:06] what it takes to be able to get through that process to identify where we are in the cycle where what the potential is for bitcoin in the future and what that might mean for you and some of the challenges that you will face getting to that point and getting to where we are today to be able to eventually realize that opportunity that bitcoin is providing us and here we are today just shy of 40 000 um earlier than what i had expected
[02:36] in previous models that i've shown and they've just been guides i did not look for bitcoin to really get through that all-time 20 000 level and not until march or april of this year so we're already four or five months ahead of what many people thought was far too optimistic in my cycle initial theory and here we are though we're at forty thousand it doesn't look like it it wants to give up yet it's relentless and i'm hoping if anything this
[03:06] these videos have given you the tools or the ammunition and and put your head in the right space to be able to appreciate where we are hold that position possibly take a little bit off and be able to sustain the move and ride this cycle to the eventual highs that i think are going to be much higher than this place and come out of this having been rewarded for that effort so that's what i wanted
[03:37] to introduce you to today i have received many questions over the last few months and i've listed here on the screen the ones that were most frequent and most liked and i think they cover the gambit of what people wanted to hear and i will try and elaborate on each of these this may end up being a long video i'm going to speak very freely and just openly none of it's sort of scripted just whatever comes to mind i'm just gonna just present it to you and i'm hoping
[04:09] again like all previous videos that it resonates and there is some value in this again this is only one man's experience one man's views my views are often wrong uh in trading and investing nobody is anywhere near close to being right the majority of the time or all the time so that uh that's the case for me and um the goal is to to realize maybe when you're wrong or and and things aren't working out and to have a plan for that and i think that's
[04:39] where the model portfolio tries to accommodate being wrong because being wrong is part of trading and investing and that also applies to something like bitcoin in this long-term idea i know many people are so convinced 100 convinced that there is only one way that bitcoin will resolve itself and and maybe to some extent i think they'll be right but it doesn't mean that there aren't any risks so again the whole point of this is to be able to
[05:10] cover the spectrum of possibilities and have at least some form of a plan for that spectrum of possibilities so here we are now we're looking at these questions of course like i do in all the videos i will start off of where we are on the charts i'll go over the charts try and make some sense of what's going on and then i'll just get into these questions and they're all pretty much related to either the portfolio buying selling um the pump that we're seeing right now
[05:40] and then just some advice in general on how to take advantage of this as well so i'll cover all these questions i'll go back and forth so let's get into it the first chart i want to show is the monthly essentially capturing the entire uh evolution of bitcoin going back to when it first really appeared on exchanges it hit that one dollar mark that's where i marked the beginning of the first four year cycle from a trading or price
[06:10] standpoint this is where real price discovery began there was some decent liquidity that's the beginning of the four year cycle and if you recall from the first video the main thesis for this is that bitcoin is um gaining momentum the network is expanding at a rapid pace and adoption of bitcoin as a store of value has only increased and as the network increases and more people believe it is a true store of
[06:41] value then there's going to be more trust in that network the more trust that develops the more capital that flows into it and people then trust the network enough where they say i would prefer to hold some value in bitcoin versus us dollar euro gold or any other asset class like a bond or a trade or a treasury for example so it becomes a conscious decision as the network grows to allocate your capital to um to certain asset classes and it's
[07:13] all about trust and as we go on here the more trust that develops the more value we will see and this is exactly what we're seeing right now with the current wave i talked about this wave being an institutional last year in many of the videos this was more of a retail phenomenon this first cycle here was more of the really smart vc money uh silicon valley money that type of thing that pushes higher this was the retail ico phase and now with the right platforms in place and
[07:44] some of the regulatory um back some of the regulatory that's in place we now have the onboarding of larger volume capital from the institutional space that's driving this higher what i've always said however is that if you believe in the properties of bitcoin and you believe the network is growing and it's only really about time and time equals trust trust equals value this is what it's been about as it as time goes on and each block is
[08:16] mined in the chain and with each block the network availability remains as is and the security of one's value is then reinforced what you end up having is more value is it comes into the network but overall as i've always said even though you have massive swings and gyrations overall the trend here is a secular it's a trend that just goes higher over time right over time it's pretty consistent
[08:47] it comes back to a mean it goes below a but overall it is consistent here on this log chart and i think there's no reason why for now at least at a market cap of still only what is it 550 600 billion there is no reason why that needs to end in the near term future it's still only a fraction of what the gold market cap is at and obviously a very tiny fraction of
[09:17] total assets in in the financial system as a whole so it still is even at this forty thousand dollar level or close to forty thousand it still is a relatively insignificant asset class and that's good that's good for early adopters like us because there is still a lot of upside left in unlocking that value and by having our position we will then realize a lot of that value
[09:47] over time so the chart is again self-explanatory it's the same chart i've shown you in almost every single video and i think there isn't any doubt now that we have a right translated four year cycle that's in play we've been talking about this and waiting about waiting for this but we are now a month 25 of this four year cycle here only just hit the midway point of the cycle
[10:18] so if you look at month 24 here which was uh last month in december december being the two year anniversary of the bear market lows and then you go out to the next four next two years to the next four year cycle expected low not from a price standpoint that's just arbitrary just from a time standpoint we're at the midpoint here so we've always expected the top in this four year cycle marked from december 2018 to somewhere around
[10:49] the end of 2022 we've always thought the top should come in the second half of that cycle so obviously if you look at this being the midway point somewhere in this area again that's arbitrary the last time it occurred almost exactly on the three year mark if that's the case we're talking about december 2021 but that's that's that's very fluid in any cycle it doesn't have to occur right there a similar point right here was around the three year mark but it's possible that it comes earlier
[11:20] like october it's also possible it comes later there's no way of really knowing what's important is that we've made a new high so we have a very clear secular uptrend here with the four year cycle of now rising but now we have one two now we have a third top regardless of where this cycle tops we're going to have a higher high again and that's the definition of a long-term secular uptrend it's also the reason why uh in the 16-year time frame a 16-year cycle
[11:52] that we now have this secular trend so we've got one two three and i believe we will make another high in this fourth cycle that follows this but i think that one has the chance a very significant chance of topping very early in that cycle and then spending more like three years in a declining phase doesn't have to be significant from a price perspective what's more important is from a time perspective that it does retrace and consolidate so
[12:22] looking at maybe one year off from the next four year cycle low to a peak forming left translated if you look again from a date standpoint from the expected cycle low out 48 months to the next expected cycle low which would be in december 2026 and you draw the midpoint there just like we did right here so there's the midpoint roughly
[12:54] in this next cycle here to follow we'll be looking for a left translated top so a top that occurs in the first half of the cycle possibly one year in one top that should likely exceed the high from this current four year cycle and then spend three years either mostly consolidating i don't expect a massive decline but certainly a decline down into this
[13:24] four-year cycle low that could be anywhere up at this at this point and then we begin yet another 16-year cycle that follows but that's getting really far ahead of ourselves right now we need to execute on this four-year cycle a lot of people love talking about what's going to happen in 2026-28 and and and on how bitcoin's going to be worth 1 million 2 million and 3 million and that's great and and we hope to be there and we will be there when that time comes but the goal of
[13:54] this here is not just to huddle i could have said from the beginning just huddle guys by the end of the next decade bitcoin is going to be three million dollars a coin just wait for that i mean that's that's true right i mean people are doing that people are just huddling for for whenever for the future for the for the time when bitcoin becomes a reserve currency but this series of videos is not about that my goal is to increase the amount of bitcoin that i hold
[14:24] through the four year cycle so by selling as close as possible or as much as possible near the highs of the four year cycle and accumulating as much as possible at the next bottom as well and this is the goal of the videos that we have here so overall everything here looks to be going to plan if anything is going and is ahead of plan we are now clearly or comfortably above the prior highs from 2017 and we're just at the halfway mark of
[14:54] this four year cycle all looking good we are starting to see some separation now between the price and 10 month moving average suggesting here that it's getting a little too speculative a little frothy is maybe what you can call it and that's true and generally when you see separation like this in the for in the the price you begin to think that we're in the final stretch of the the four-year cycle blow-off um just like you saw here as it really started to separate you started seeing
[15:25] that final push still plenty of room load left in this typically even when you see this separation here there was another four or five months to go from there so there is still plenty of room left if this is the final blow-off heading to an early top in the cycle then we're still looking at those price targets i've always talked about the 100 plus 150 200 maybe even as high as 250 000 are all in play if this is an early
[15:56] start to the blow-off move i don't think that's the case and i'm going to cover a couple of scenarios very shortly but that is one thing we need to just be aware of and we're prepared for that as you know looking at it from a weekly here it is right here so we're starting to get you know the rate of change here in this in this move is really starting to accelerate here suggesting that we're heading up towards some type of at least short term top we haven't seen
[16:26] that 30 pullback that i talked about in the last video as something that happens often and frequently and i hope some people took that literally and said well you saw you said it's going to go down 30 yeah i said it's possible and that it happens in the past and that's what investing is about looking at prior behavior of an asset and trying to be prepared for that but at the same time we did not remove or sell any other position in any anticipation of that the objective of highlighting that
[16:58] possibility was simply to prepare you in the event that we had a 30 or 40 percent decline that it was normal in a bull market up trend that you don't want to lose your position and that if anything you want to add to your position on that possibility but right now we are in what i consider to be an outlier environment or outlier movement meaning that we're seeing price action or behavior here that even by bitcoin standards and its
[17:29] history of extreme volatility is not something we see that often at all we saw a glimpse of this briefly here in 2019 obviously in 2017 and obviously in the last or the the cycle before that the four year cycle with um with the the double move here in 2013. there's only really been four like moves in its entire 10 or 11 years so when you have an outlier move like this when you have any asset class behaving in an outlier
[18:01] environ in an outlier sort of situation you need to take a step back and say to yourself i have no control over what this is doing i cannot predict what it's doing because we are in a situation right now where in three weeks time i think we can be up at 80 000 maybe even 90 000 and this would fit this mini sort of parabola structure very well we could also
[18:31] comfortably drop right here find the top and do a 35 decline into and down back towards just the 10 week moving average or even just the 20-week moving average i mean in prior bull markets hitting the 20-week moving average was a very common occurrence and as you can see the separation now between the 20-week moving average and price is very pronounced almost as pronounced as the top here in 2017. so
[19:02] on the flip side then seeing a decline of 35 40 percent is not out of the question again it's not a prediction it's a possibility and the point of these videos is to be able to point out possibilities so you are prepared when those events occur the whole goal of successful investing is to understand what could go wrong and not so much what could go right we already know what
[19:32] could go right we got in this space early on because we thought the opportunity was there that bitcoin was going to six figures that's been the plan from the beginning we don't need to convince ourselves otherwise but we also need to be prepared on the way up to that point on what could happen and right here a drop of 35 40 percent would not destroy or alter the bullish nature of this advance off the march 2020 lows a decline of 40 percent
[20:05] doesn't even get you to price from december the 20th that's how bullish this move has been that's how extreme this move has been um so to be prepared for that you need to understand now what would you do on a 40 15 000 price decline what would you do in if within the next five days that was to occur are you going to sell all your bitcoin because you just sat here calculating all of the money you have made
[20:35] here now in this move and that's stuck in your mind that you think that's that open profit belongs to you it doesn't belong to you obviously if you if you think in btc terms like some of you do um and you only care about the you know the the nominal value of your btc then then really these videos aren't for you because you've already you know you're all ahead of us you know you already think that bitcoin to the next reserve currency you just want to hold bitcoin you don't care about the usd price but for us who want to who view this
[21:06] from a usd price um from a purchasing power price you're looking at 40 000 in price and looking at the profit and then all of a sudden in five days or ten trading days it's now almost cut in half excuse me and and so then you panic and you and you start to really sort of kick yourself and punch yourself thinking why the hell didn't i get some profit there or do something so you need to be prepared for that and that's another reason why i'll cover
[21:37] this in a minute why i sold a little bit at the 28 000 level which is a pre-planned sale because i wanted to just release some of that pressure that builds up the pressure of the profit i mean it's a good position to be in to be in such a huge profitable position and um but that comes with stress it comes with um a worry that you're gonna lose it because it's not realized yet and because it's not realized there is
[22:07] there is fear and when the market dro so you have fear now with open profit think about that fearing your profit and then it drops 30 or 40 percent how do you feel so again the ex the purpose of these videos is to make you aware that it's a possibility it's a real possibility based on bitcoin's history and you need to know that you shouldn't panic at that point and if you think right now that you're going to panic and sell all of your bitcoin
[22:37] then maybe sell a little bit of it small amount just to sort of reward yourself pat yourself on the back and say i made some money okay so that's one uh idea here but look otherwise what do i think is going on well this move is now mostly unlike the 17 move now we did have this really big surge from making all-time high dropping and then we we did search quickly here so
[23:07] this developed a decent separation from the 10 and 20 week moving average and then when that finally topped it it declined by i think it was almost 40 percent and this is crude here but yeah you can see it's 40 just around 40 percent and that was normal right and and you can see it was a v-shaped recovery you had one wick down and then one week an engulfing candle and then it just kept going so why not
[23:39] why not why can't we see yet again a 40 or 35 decline back to that 20-week moving average and then a v-shaped it's a possibility be prepared for it that's what it would look like but i'm starting and and maybe this is from a contrarian standpoint what a contrarian a bearish contrarian would want to hear but i'm starting to think that wearing something and i tweeted this out two
[24:09] weeks ago this this feels a lot like the silver move of 2011 and also to some extent looks like the 2013 move in bitcoin in its first big peak if you look at this here this is the um the move in 2013 let me go back to the four year cycle on the monthly and when i look at the candles here and look at the date range
[24:40] that occurred here on month 21 so almost at that midpoint of the cycle just short of that and this is that pump right there this is the first big one that created a lot of separation on the monthly over a sort of a four-month period this to me and you can see the nature of this structure of this riding the upper weekly bollinger bands this has a lot of the same characteristics and feeling of a lockout move that um
[25:12] people just really can't believe is occurring so it occurs without the blow-off like speculation and frothiness i mean yes people are excited on social media but it's all the same characters it's all the same people mostly for the most part that are excited and jumping up and down it's confirmation of them sticking through the bear market i see it on twitter i mean the twitter growth is not going through the roof there isn't a whole lot of new retail
[25:42] participants from what i can see that's jumping in i've got friends who are like hey i know you're into bitcoin you know you're probably doing okay but none of them are calling and saying how do i get in man what's going on what's going on there's some of that but it's nothing nothing nothing like what it was in 17. it's nothing like what it was in gold when i was doing a lot of that in 2011 my point is it doesn't feel like like that mania final blow-off phase and
[26:12] here we are double the price from 2017 here we are up 30 000 in the last two months alone so my point is that this is an institutional driven play even in the futures markets i mean the the volume is in the spot exchanges funding rates just they're not going to extremes they get cleaned down every now and then but this is a spot driven rally it's a physical driven rally it's it's money and capital that wants to own
[26:45] physical bitcoin it's not the speculative futures driven markets that is driving the price right here and it reminds me a lot of this because even though i wasn't not invested in bitcoin in 2013 i was heavily into tech and i know that this early period right here 13 was really the first time that the some of the the silicon valley vcs and a lot of the tech folks the money that got in
[27:15] drove this higher here the first time and then it was reinforced the second time so this here was the first before that it was all just sort of hobbyists techies uh libertarians all that sort of thing right this is the price at the 10 range and below this is when you had the first sort of smart money that came into the market and they just drove this higher relentlessly and this went from thirteen dollars to two hundred dollars
[27:46] a 10x move and then we had this lengthy consolidation of almost six months and then we had that final blow off to the 1200 where there was a definitely some more retail participation i think something like this is going on again and i alluded to that just um two weeks ago in twitter here we are now i'm looking at the price about the clock forty thousand dollars congratulations everybody that's uh that's great um but going back to these charts this is where i think we're at and
[28:16] if that's the case if you look at this closely orderly candles above the bollinger bands and then the rated chains really accelerates and what you see here is that from this entire move of two thousand percent uh the majority of it right because it's a log chart um the majority of that move occurred here in the last three weeks or last
[28:47] four weeks so even though if you're sitting here at 13 bitcoin and all of a sudden you know it's at 47 well it's not too different to sitting here at um you know if you look at 13 add a few zeros to that and go to 13 000 and then you get to this sort of point right here and it's at what 48 dollars so add a few more zeros again and becomes 48 000 not too dissimilar to where we are but then look at this peak right here at 257 dollars now
[29:18] add a few more zeros and then you get the idea um now again i'm not i'm not suggesting we're going to 257 000 over the next few weeks um not at all but what i am suggesting is that if this sort of parabolic move can remain sustainable even just for four more weeks and you get and you notice how orderly this is now you're starting to see it really poke above the weekly bollinger bands what if you get
[29:48] three or four more of these massive candles all of a sudden by the end of january or mid-february you're sitting at a hundred thousand bitcoin and there's your first real peak much earlier than everybody expected um people have been talking about cycles going out to 2027 and 24 and lengthening and so on and here we are shortening if anything there's a rush to bitcoin this is obvious there is real capital flooding in and this is just
[30:18] going crazy so we could while this move is sustained it's going to keep increasing at this rate of change it's very rare once something gets to this sort of escape velocity type action that it just pauses for any period of time we've had a couple of pauses already i don't think this really pauses now until it tops and when it tops for this move it's going to decline 40 percent i do believe that but i don't know where that top comes and if this rate of change continues then like i said we could be by mid
[30:50] february uh or early february at the hundred thousand dollar level and then we can put in a forty percent drop back to fifty sixty thousand i don't know at that point right that's the whole point of an outlier move you don't know all you can just say is i don't know but this is what could happen and i'm going to be ready for it and this is what i want to say so this is what we could be doing and then we could be pausing or consolidating for a good portion of the
[31:23] 2021 period into the summer months and then we continue and go up towards that top in the latter part of the year and if we go back to the monthly chart here here it is and this would be the right translated october november kind of peak and you still get the same result where we're looking at sort of that peak in that 200 000 range give or take a very very wide margin and it's difficult to say but we're
[31:54] looking at something kind of like this now over the next month right and then we drop consolidate consolidate and then peak okay again numbers are arbitrary they're guides they're not predictions we're just trading this secular uptrend look at here it is right well are you going to be surprised with this look at the uptrend it's what we've been talking about from the beginning there it is like that
[32:24] is that a surprise to you it's not a surprise to me and this is what i've been invested in from the beginning and this has been my goal and remains my goal to this date i can't be any clearer than that when we try and get too detailed in this analysis you get analysis paralysis you just start talking over and over and but this is very clear secular bull market trust capital inflows institutional four year cycle it's all pointing to me
[32:54] in the same direction and being early to this four year cycle there is no way in how i'm gonna miss out on it getting up to this level so that's where we stand in the four-year cycle all right so is this pump sustainable i think i just answered that question it is sustainable for the short term the rate of change tells me that it's sustainable but it will reach a peak and when it does it should fall back quickly next few
[33:26] questions two of these combined why are you selling when bitcoin will become the world's reserve currency why did you sell five btc and the more model portfolio at 28 000 when you said it's going over one hundred thousand so a lot some people are confused by this most are not most people get it but i said i'm gonna sell uh five bcc which was only 15 of the model portfolio 28k when bitcoin was at 5000 when i was buying it at 4 000.
[33:56] that was my plan because it represented the initial outlay of the portfolio so i said when we get to 28 that is probably the worst case scenario in from a risk management standpoint i said to myself that if we were going to get a left translated cycle that we would get to a new time all-time high probably do a 20 move above that and top that was my absolute worst case scenario and all i wanted to do
[34:27] was take out the absolute worst case scenario put the initial outlay back in my pocket and then be happy that was the main reason for doing that [Music] also another reason for doing that is again as i described as price gets higher and you have a massive open profit in your position it becomes difficult to hold and by taking a little bit off a table at a pre-planned level it feels
[34:57] rewarding you feel as if you've accomplished something you take some off the table which basically means you're now uh risk-free right you you're not risk-less because you have open profit you can give up but you can't walk away with losing money from this endeavor so right now i can't lose no matter what happens bitcoin would have to go to zero and i still wouldn't lose and that's powerful position for me personally to be in um and i feel good about
[35:27] where we stand there so this one comes up all the time and it's it's coupled with uh people telling me over and over again that we'll never see 30 corrections because the institutional play is too great and i'm telling you and i don't like to say in absolute terms but i think you're definitely wrong now this current move may not give us any 30 decline to 100 like i just showed but it
[35:58] will top and when it does top it will correct 30 percent and institutions won't rush in to buy because what is happening or what's going to happen is we're going to get to a point where we're going to unlock certain levels in price that you're going to get long-term hodlers or miners or even the folks even institutions that bought in that 18 or 20k they're going to start to say well we just made 200 or 300 on our money let's sell some let's sell all
[36:28] you just don't know so you what i'm getting at is you get to a certain point where you do unlock there's some price discovery that occurs you get some more supply unlocked and you get less demand because at some point in the short term it's even institutional folks they say we wanted to buy let's call it a 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin and they couldn't get approval board approval regulatory approval whatever the case may be and they wanted to buy a 20 and now it's sitting at 60. they're going to second guess they're humans as well they're going to start to
[36:59] say well do we want to buy now at 60. so what i'm getting at is demand begins to at some point at least be second guessing question and supply begins to increase so you will at some point have to find a level uh that enforces profit taking and that um then you know ushers in a period of of decline so 30 corrections will come but it may not come until we hit 100 000 and we may go straight up or it may happen tomorrow it may even
[37:30] happen by the time this video comes out that's the important thing i'm okay in giving you two absolutely extreme and opposing scenarios to me that is not any sign of weakness that is to me uh respecting the market and saying that we're in this outlier situation and both of those scenarios would not be surprising it should not be surprising to any investor that has as has done any real investing um given where we are today so i would
[38:01] not be surprised either way but we will get a 30 correction at some point okay model portfolio changes exit this portfolio has been available to all from the very beginning it's a model portfolio designed to show how every unit of one hundred thousand dollars invested performs over the four year cycle it's not um and people would take if they're following this any ratio of that one hundred thousand dollar model
[38:31] and apply it to their own situation so 100 000 was an easier way and around sort of a round way to be able to illustrate the performance of the model so we are sitting on in this model 30 btc the price here is showing at 30 04 39 200 the portfolio is worth 1.1 million and we're currently sitting on a 1.1 million dollar profit on the portfolio so for a hundred thousand dollar investment
[39:01] we're sitting on a 1.1 billion dollar profit and we've covered our initial outlay we bought obviously 25 bitcoin with a start here bought another september 2019 then bought another five in march at the collapse and just sold recently five at twenty eight thousand we still have thirty thousand capital the initial uh portfolio at risk so i wasn't exactly truthful when i said bitcoin went to zero i'd lose nothing
[39:31] uh the model portfolio would lose thirty thousand dollars of course we're not going to get to that point people want to know what my next targets are and this is where it becomes highly discretionary i don't have arbitrary targets for the rest of this the first one um was a target based specifically on where the four year cycle may top in a worst case scenario and also represented getting back a lot of my capital the next one however
[40:02] is going to be arbitrary uh sorry discretionary is the word um it's going to be discretionary as this moves up and to be perfectly honest with you there is a possibility and a strong possibility that i will be selling some if and here's the condition listen to it very carefully if we rally to above 65 000 over the next few weeks so without a 30 decline at that point i would be looking
[40:33] at possibly selling 5btc and the reason for that is yes i do believe we're going up to 150 000 or 200 in this four year cycle but just like the reason for selling my first five btc i think there is an outside chance that and it's only an outside chance we are going to be going to a top here over the next two or three months
[41:03] maybe around the 90 or 100 000 level and then this four year cycle for whatever reason chops and chops and chops and eventually finds a four year cycle low somewhere at the thousand dollar level before going again unlikely but hey when you're in at 3 700 3800 and you can take possibly a little more of a table i would but again it is dependent
[41:35] on this move continuing if we get a 30 retracement i would prefer that right now i think that keeps the bull market more intact it allows for some backfilling and some profit taking and i think that allows for a more sustainable bull market that is more like the 2017 move so here it is here i pull back right now is more sustainable and if we get a pullback i would not have a price target under 100 000
[42:07] for the for any bitcoin so i hope you understood that the target is not uh it's still discretionary it's uh it's fluid but i would if this continues over the next three or four weeks heading up to sort of 80 75 80 000 i would be looking to take five btc off because there's a chance it's a final move unlikely but there's a chance i do want to see however more of that pullback here it is here like we saw in 17 a 30 pullback and if
[42:39] we get that then going back to the model portfolio it becomes uh becomes discretionary again and i'd be looking for six-figure bitcoin before taking some off the table okay the next change i'm going to add to this portfolio it hasn't been updated but i've decided that there is a chance that we go into some type of hyper bitcoinization in this cycle and picking a top in that
[43:12] would be almost impossible so i'm gonna now allocate or dedicate 10 btc of my portfolio into a never huddle position sorry never sell position always huddle so i've decided more recently that it probably from a risk standpoint from upside risk standpoint from a standpoint of what if this just goes and it doesn't
[43:44] look back and it ignores the four year cycle low it's a small pullback for two or three months in a four year cycle so let's look at this what if it does here's the next four year cycle due what if it does what's called an extreme right translated cycle what if it doesn't top until september or august of 2022 what if it just goes and goes and goes and
[44:16] yeah i'm talking crazy numbers and i don't believe that's the case but come on who are we falling here bitcoin i mean this has been a crazy experience a crazy journey there is nothing that really would surprise me so as a as an insurance player almost as i've protected myself on the downside i need to in this environment protect myself from the upside and have 10 btc you don't need more than
[44:46] 10 right because if we're talking about a situation where bitcoin is going to say straight to a million or even two in this four year cycle having 10 btc you're gonna be just fine okay and i don't mean uh 10 uh in a nominal sense but it's 10 of your 30 or it's one of your three or it's 100 of your 300 so it's a ratio it's basically keeping a third of what you have left
[45:16] in the wallet hopefully on a multi-sig um not on the custodians well not the custodians while in your control um so i'm keeping that 10 for the upside extreme possibility just like i sold five for the extreme worst case scenario i'm keeping 10 for the extreme upside scenario okay so that's going to be reflected in the model portfolio of the next few days
[45:46] going forward okay this is already becoming a long video so i want to start to pick up the pace a little bit here advice for those who sold at 20k are still on the sidelines what's best for them you know i get this question you wouldn't be surprised how often i get this more than two or three times a day i get i got this when i was uh when i still am heavily involved in gold but the last gold bull market you get this in every bull market what do you do i sold and now it's gone
[46:17] up a lot and it's it's just you're deer in headlights you don't know what to do because you fear by buying now you're buying the top and you know what there's a chance you will buy the top especially in bitcoin at 40. but i was getting asked the question at 18 000. i was getting asked the question at 22 at 28 32 36 all these little levels i was getting asked the same thing and if you just had bought at that point you'd be okay even now i showed you a 40 decline
[46:51] is only 23 or 24 000. you still would have been the profit if you sold at 20 and got back in so my and this also pertains to uh i'm not sure if the question was here i actually grouped it with this but a lot of people asked i have friends and family they want to get in but what do i tell them what do we do well again when the market's up 300 percent in two months there's never an easy answer to this but if bitcoin is going to be or bitcoin gets to 80 or 100 000 over the next
[47:22] month or so um should you have bought at 38 000 i think the answer is yes if your goal is what i described bitcoin at 150 or 200 or 250 is it time to buy now would you buy now if i told you bitcoin is going to 200 000 um but it may or may not go through a 30 decline before then and what would you do i think the answer is you would buy right so my answer to
[47:53] everybody is get a core position you're happy with and comfortable with get something where you're in you you know you've got a footing and a foundation in this space but at the same time do it knowingly knowing that you could experience you will experience some volatility and you could experience a drawdown of up to 40 in the bull market but not to panic and to realize that that was just the penalty you paid for either not listening or for selling or for not
[48:24] listening to your friend or your family when they said to buy but you are focused on the four-year cycle top you are focused on 150 to 200 000 bitcoin price and that's the goal of the investment and if you frame it like that it shouldn't be all that difficult to do how do you remain in position when profit drops 4 30 40 well i think that's what every video has been about hasn't it so go back and watch the videos this is what it's been about understanding the
[48:54] volatility of bitcoin the nature of this market how it can drop 30-40 percent and if you think you can't handle it take some off the table i've said it before it's better to take some now and see price double in the future than it is to not take any now see a 30 or 40 decline sell it all and then it goes back up that's worse that's a thousand times worse so take a little bit off if you can't handle it but otherwise mentally prepare yourself for that possibility how do you identify
[49:26] when the bull market ends i want to hold through the major corrections but certainly not the bear mark well of course this is going to be 1 000 discretionary feeling of the market it's going to help or we're going to need to see a blow-off like environment to make it easier i'm not saying it's easy but it certainly is easy when you get the massive parabola peak move in a market i at least personally i
[49:58] think i've gone through enough of them now to be at least be able to identify them in real time and get out pretty close to the top it's the ones that don't give you that full-blown blow-off that can be difficult but i think from a there's a number of things we're going to focus on here we're going to focus on time in the four-year cycle i'm not really prepared to entertain any top now until at least post-summer and more likely towards the end of the year and also price i'm not really
[50:28] prepared to entertain a major top until we get to the six figure range for for bitcoin how to prepare for a black swan on btc protecting yourself well it's simple just don't you know put every single thing into this i know some people have everything in this it's everything's riding on this and it's make or break and you know i want kudos to you i mean if i was 22 i i would probably do the same thing i'm not 22. i'm in my late 40s um i've built and had a successful
[50:58] career and um you know it's been it's been good for me i'm in a position where i don't need to risk anymore you know i've made what i need to make um this is this is fun this is great and of course you know making some more is always welcomed but i'm not going to risk everything i've done to make more than i need because i don't need really much more so for me personally to answer this question how do i prepare myself well i don't risk enough where it's going to kill me that's simple as that
[51:29] and as you know from the model portfolio um i've already taken enough off where i don't even have any risk in this market anymore i have trading risk i have you know quite a bit in the trading account for bitcoin but it's the same thing um so point here is um if you've got something to lose something you've built don't risk everything on this certainly don't borrow for this i know you feel it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and in some regards it's a obviously a
[51:59] huge opportunity but but don't go all in completely and because it does in it does inhibit your decision-making process and that could end up hurting you otherwise again another strategy is to sell a little bit here and there be okay with selling a little bit taking big profit off the table to allow the rest to grow and that's important and then what is a realistic level to add to a huddle position well ideally anything before the prior four
[52:30] year cycle highs i always said i'm not going to add a single dime to bitcoin above 20 000. i think people who are adding above 20 000 really need to understand that they've made some some pretty significant investment mistakes now i'm not talking about people that are just getting into this if you're just being introduced to bitcoin of course you know you didn't know right but i'm talking about the people if you were in bitcoin or if you've been following it and bitcoin is at 4 000 6 thousand ten
[53:00] and now you wanna add more the only excuse for that would be that you have earning new money and you wanna put that to work that's fine talking about if you're sitting there idle idle with a counter now you're like ah should i put some more in that to me is not something that sits well with me from an investor standpoint i wanted to put my allocation in early and i did and i don't think there is any realistic level now unless you're dollar cost averaging you've come across some new money you want to put to work those are the situations where i think
[53:31] it's reasonable but at some point the asymmetrical opportunity at least for this four year cycle begins to dwindle meaning there's more downside risk and there's less of the upside that it was when bitcoin was at 5 000 the upside was massive the downside was small now it's not the same equation it's still skewed to the positive but it's not the same equation at all so i hope this video like all the prior
[54:02] videos have been helpful this again is from a disclaimer standpoint my experience my journey my thoughts the way i'm approaching it the way i'm trading this the way i'm investing this if it helps you that's great that's what they're there for i didn't ask for anything in return and i won't in the future again thanks for being here thanks for following i appreciate you i want to wish you again happy 2021 all the best to you thanks again
[54:32] take care