[00:01] well hello four-year journey members it's bob lucas here on august the 21st i hope you're well wherever you are in this world uh it's been around 10 weeks since the last video and that was somewhat by design i just don't have a whole lot new to add to each of these videos a lot of what has been said a lot of what you need to be successful in this bull market has already been said i know sometimes it's comforting to hear it again but in reality you just need to go back and watch the
[00:32] videos again and you know learn from a lot of what was said in those previous videos but also more importantly learn from the last 18 months and how certain movements in the market impacted you and how it affected you and how does that relate to the four-year the four-year journey and the huddle strategy that we've outlined in the past so today's video therefore will probably be on the shorter side again once i get going though
[01:02] it may end up being longer than i originally i thought but essentially i'm going to cover where we stand in the four year cycle look at the price action and um compare that to kind of expectations to prior four-year cycles and and the expectation for this four-year cycle i'll take a quick look at the model portfolio as that's been requested um continuously by by many of you and then something a little different i've just i've just outlined some simple lessons that i want to share with you based on my experience in the past with
[01:33] bull markets that i feel um may or should help if if they're taken uh seriously and implemented some of those lessons uh um concepts of course i've shared with you in the past i don't think there's much like i said earlier much uh much more new content i could possibly share it's gonna help but some simple lessons i feel will um you know will help there were many other questions that members wanted answered for example on the technology on on the blockchain
[02:03] on the mempool on fees on the economy on on risk in general on lengthening cycles on a number of different points and i think in the end what's important here is that we don't really overcome overcomplicate what i think is a pretty simple journey that we're on okay and i'm going to cover that in a little more detail further on but essentially the journey is simple we believe and the evidence shows that bitcoin is in a long secular bull market
[02:34] uptrend with extremes extreme amount of volatility so if we believe that bitcoin is in this massive secular bull market with a significant amount of upside potential then we need to simplify the process simplify how we look at that and work out and find tools to get us from point a to point b and not be disturbed and distracted by all the volatility all the negativity or
[03:05] all the narratives that uh that you'll hear on social media and everywhere else if you believe in point a to point b in this in a secular bull market then that's your goal and that's what we're trying to capture here so i'm going to cover in the simple lessons some ideas and concepts that i think are going to help us really simplify this again and put us back on track for writing this next bull market so let's look at the charts right here so here's the weekly chart you should
[03:35] all be pretty familiar with by now this is something i've shared many times before here's the four year cycle lower back in december 2018 as you know we had this what was an early rally in the four year cycle unlike what we've seen in the past that took many people by surprise that over extension early in the cycle had led therefore to what was an over-extension on the downside within a rising four-year cycle and this here both of these moves in
[04:05] fact i think caused a lot of grief from many people including hodlers alike because many people had not achieved their ideal allocation early in here in this area thinking that the market would roll over even though right here at around the four thousand dollar range for 4200 i released a video back in april of 2019 saying that the new four year cycle had begun what ended up happening was people waited until the 9 10 11 000 range to get their allocation
[04:36] probably started to lever up even more as it got to 12 and 13 and of course the market just dumped on them and what resulted therefore was that people were over leveraged at the wrong time and couldn't handle multi weeks of declines here and what ended up being in effect another bear market within a four year cycle and that was punishing for many people but i think in the end it was the type of sentiment busting kind of action that we need in
[05:06] the four year cycle to really allow us and therefore to continue this bull market move higher if you think about it as it stands right now bitcoin is at eleven and twelve thousand dollars and in the past whenever bitcoin was at ten thousand eleven thousand it was a bubble right especially back in 2017 when it crossed 10 000 everyone was screaming bubble even when it crossed 10 000 here in in 2019 people weren't necessarily screaming bubble but it was a sticker shock price
[05:38] and people follow it in this time around however you don't see that type of sentiment and that's great that's what we need from a contrarian standpoint that's what we need for the foundation of a new bull market run we the market has therefore priced in a 10 000 plus print in bitcoin as being normal and acceptable and that's the kind of foundation that we want to build upon and i think that's what bitcoin is showing us right here the last time i showed you a video bitcoin was sitting at around 9000
[06:08] i talked about the fact that we still need to see a move above all of these prior 60-day cycle highs at around about the 10 500 area to get us and to give us that confirmation that this downtrend that began here in june of 2019 had indeed ended i suspected and was pretty confident that it had ended that this capitulation here with the coronavirus sell-off was the the end of that decline and this decline here was fitting because it really
[06:39] did liquidate so many other leveraged players in in the space and a lot of the retail players in the space and again that's the type of action we need for the foundation of a new bull market and since then i believe we've seen a heavy heavy amount of institutional-like accumulation and smart money accumulation we see that in a lot of the hollow statistics and and um addresses holding uh bitcoin for for longer periods of time we also see it in
[07:09] flows on exchanges going off exchanges we also see that in some of the uh the institutional platforms as well with the amount of assets under management in bitcoin so i think everything now is absolutely in place for that next run higher and if you look at this and i think when we look back in six months or a year time we're just going to see one relatively steady uptrend from the capitulation lows there will be pullbacks and there will be certainly some significant pullbacks as we saw in 2015 16 and 17 during that
[07:41] run but also as we saw in sort of 2012 and 13 when we had prior bull market runs as well they're going to come and how we prepare for those eventual pullbacks and extreme volatility events is really what's going to set us apart from everybody else too many people are going to are going to basically puke a lot of their position because they're going to get scared whereas we're going to probably obviously just be learned to accept that volatility or
[08:11] even add to positions if that's if that's something we want to do so overall here we will see these pullbacks and maybe we're in the process of seeing one right now and and in prior bull markets we see 30 retracements often enough and 30 retracement really brings us back to this sort of 9 000 area that's something that needs to be part of your plan here going forward and as price continues but what i want to say is that when i widen the lens even further
[08:42] out and look at bitcoins bitcoin from almost its inception right and look at price from the one dollar mark up to where it is now we can see these four year cycles are trending higher and we see that the secular trend is higher and again this is the narrative and this is the time frame that a hodler is working on they're working on these four-year cycle time frames within a larger 16-year uptrend cycle and when you see short-term volatility and short-term declines
[09:13] you need to be able to turn that off turn the emotions off and come back to this vision here and appreciate that bitcoin does have extreme volatility events and that's just part of uh you know part of this this asset class and we need to accept that and embrace it more than anything else but when you look at this and look at it from a structure standpoint you see the kind of the cups that form and then the expansion to the next bull market we have another one that's developing as
[09:43] we had expected of course we had like i mentioned earlier we had the surprise move up and the surprise move lower but in general the trend is still following a path that was outlined and expected in in the past so you need to believe that this trend is going to continue to have confidence to ride this higher as well if you have fears that this is not going to continue for whatever reason it's going to break this
[10:13] what is now a 10-year established trend then you need to therefore probably pull back on some of your allocation pull back on some of your leverage and get to the point where you can sleep comfortably in the idea that this trend is going to continue for much higher all right so are we still on track though so this is an image from the video from april of 2019 so it's going back now almost 18 months around 16 months where i just you know for argument's
[10:44] sake outline the trends similar to prior four-year cycle trends and how this cycle could unfold based on again prior cycles and as you can see here of course we don't have that big surge up to 14 000 but we do have the pullbacks but generally where we stand today and here it is september of um of 2020. if you can draw a line from say august september and then draw across you will find that
[11:15] um hang on okay so drawing across from here we get to around the 13 000 range so we're pretty much around the the area give or take a thousand dollars of where the prior four year cycle would have been in a similar position and where um i thought this cycle would be uh you know 18 months ago so right on track as far as i'm concerned but as you can see and as i've outlined before i think getting to that twenty thousand dollar
[11:45] range is going to be a process it's not gonna happen overnight uh can we get another surprise event like we had here in 2019 absolutely anything is possible in an asset class with this much volatility but what i expect is a process of rising up towards that twenty thousand dollar range possibly testing it for a number of weeks maybe even a number of months with some pullbacks as i said before 30 pullbacks in the bull market
[12:15] are to be expected and then eventually what i believe will be sometime in early 2021 early to mid so around the april or may time frame do we eventually get through that 20 000 range and continue higher so none of that has changed as far as i'm concerned with the caveat that um this is just a guide right what i'm more focused on is the timing aspect of this looking for a peak in this four-year cycle up in the latter part of 2021 with
[12:48] a decline into the next four-year cycle low into 2022 so going back here to you know the monthly chart this is what i'm concerned with this is what i'm i'm really focused on is is looking at price getting up into this 100 000 range give or take right and again based on the last bull market and and this bull market as well where a blow off top occurs and and just how far it goes is really
[13:18] anybody's guess and and you would be a fool trying to guess that that's something that we will that will approach and deal with when the time comes for now though it's just a matter of sitting here patiently and waiting and letting it unfold as price begins to capture new ground pull back and backfill capture new ground and pull back and backfill and the process continues in an ebb and flow manner all the way up to the four-year cycle high this is what i'm focused on so again
[13:49] this is nothing new this is really just saying to you that nothing has changed as far as i'm concerned in the bullish narrative the bull market narrative and the four year cycle for potentially future gains so therefore looking at the four year cycle model portfolio that i have on the website four year journey.com looking pretty good here so the portfolio is up 238 000 has a value of 409 000 from an initial
[14:21] capital outlay of 170 000 up 140 percent the um the positions here of course with an initial december buy when price was at 4 000. there was a buy in september of 2019 that has now been reclaimed that was uh sitting at a paper loss for a while there that is now in profit and that's just an example of how a bull market can you know sitting tight can really help and of course the march capitulation lows was i think a
[14:53] massive opportunity to to add back in and there were some positions added right there the first target is 28 000 taking five bitcoin off if we get to that point that will essentially or mostly cover the outlet outlay for for bitcoin and so for this portfolio allowing me to therefore sit in a position that is purely in profit and that helps with the sleeping and the ability to ride what would hopefully be some significant paper profits it's difficult
[15:23] let me tell you it is difficult no matter how many times you've been through a bull market to sit in positions that are in significant profit and whether 30 drawdowns and having a position that is essentially paid for and make just makes it so much easier so that's that's the reasoning behind behind that profit target just taking some off the table and being happy with uh with the profit and happy to cover the the risk and allowing you therefore to sit um pretty comfortably for the ride
[15:54] higher so we've come to the simple lessons portion of the video i talked about when we started this and i just want to give you a couple of quick ideas here that i think are going to be very helpful and and the most important concept i want you to understand is that you really are your worst enemy your path to success in this process it lies with you and you only and nobody
[16:24] else nobody else can can help you here beside yourself and if you go into this thinking it's going to be easy and straightforward i can tell you it's not and you probably have a sense that's the case with uh with recent moves in bitcoin and how you probably responded to to those moves so i just want you to understand you are your own worst enemy in this whole process because you already know the plan and we've talked about this plan and you're in this because you believe bitcoin is going to reach towards that hundred thousand dollar
[16:55] range possibly further possibly a lot more than that and eventually i think uh far higher than that and it may even fall short of that in the next four-year cycle we don't know and price really um is is not so important right now because when we focus on price and means we're focusing on gains we're focusing on profit and that tends to lead emotionally into focusing on wealth and getting rich and yachts and lambos and so on and when you start thinking
[17:25] like that you're you're prone to become too emotional in the process but if you believe this is true that we're heading towards another four year cycle that will resemble prior four-year cycles there's really only two risks to achieving let's call it financial independence here and of course the first one is very simple is that bitcoin does not do what we expect right and that's a risk uh i think a lot of people approach bitcoin as
[17:56] a slam dunk that it's just expected and there's just no way that bitcoin is not going to continue on that 10-year path that it has in the past i'm going to tell you that that's not something i necessarily 100 believe in and i just know from investing and trading for many many years that there is no such thing as a sure thing it just doesn't exist it's it never has been and never will now do i think the odds are high
[18:26] yes i do i believe the odds are pretty high in fact i i still to this day believe this has the best sort of asymmetrical uh structure and opportunity out there by far and even with bitcoin at the 10 10 to 12 000 price range i still believe that that opportunity is the best opportunity out there but it's not a guarantee and the reason why that's important is because there's risk when that's not a guarantee there's risk that for whatever reason
[18:57] this fizzles and doesn't achieve the type of goals that we're looking at or it pulls back to let's call it three thousand two thousand or even one spends the next three or four years there those are risks that you and niece lead to plan for and that's why i've said from the beginning you need to have an allocation to this that doesn't jeopardize your family and your future and and everything else that comes with that and you need to be able to allocate
[19:27] enough where it's going to be substantial it's going to be obviously provide you or hopefully provide you with some financial independence it's going to really move the needle for you but it's not going to ruin you as well the number one rule as you i'm sure i've heard many times is you know risk management first and it definitely applies in this case as well there's going to be enough juice in this gains in these gains if it does achieve a type of type of gains that we're looking for that you should do well
[19:57] without betting the farm on this on this as well so that's the number risk number one and we should know that and we should be mindful of that but really the biggest risk is you making poor choices at the wrong time that's going to impede on your success here and by poor choices we mean not sitting tight and being content in a bull market okay um some people just some people believe it but they don't back it up
[20:28] or with their allocation and they wait they wait for you know for further evidence to the upside and they wait for um they wait for confirmation bias confirmation bias from from everyone else to jump in and get a position or they're not emotionally in the right frame of mind so what ends up happening a lot is people average up in a bull market and averaging in an uptrend you know can be good but if we look back at the strategy here
[20:58] and what we're looking for over the next sort of two years and believing in that 10-year secular bull market if we already know that and if that's our strategy then why would you wait for your allocation that's kind of the message i had back in december of 2018 and april 2019 i've said get your allocation get your full allocation early in the bull market and be content and be happy as you can see from the model portfolio up 140 already it's sitting really
[21:29] pretty and even with a 30 or 40 percent pullback from here it's still going to be up a substantial amount and that's the luxury you achieve when you get in early and have your allocation as opposed to averaging in at higher prices increasing your leverage at a higher price so what ends up happening is you get a bigger allocation which is something that may be more difficult for you to hold but you're increasing your average price so when you do get 30 pullbacks you may find yourself in
[21:59] the situation where you were you know in a good pay-per-profit situation but because you're leveraged higher increase your price and you get a 30 pullback all of a sudden you're sitting at a at a loss for example on your position and that changes your mindset and changes how you approach the market um so just get your allocation already that's really the the message i've been saying for the longest time don't let the market get ahead of you and away from you and and impact how you see things so
[22:30] if you must add whether it's because you don't have the funds now or you're doing some type of you know incremental additional strategy like that just be mindful not to add on a sizeable rally there's this tendency for people to see the market run away to to rally by 30 40 and 50 in a short period of time and to then feel that that rally is not going to end and they do end they always end in the short term short time frames and it's important not
[23:01] to add at the end of those rallies but be mindful that bitcoin will provide 20 and 30 retracements often enough in an uptrend and you want to be ready for those and so if you do need to add you're going to add on a sizable pullback and then you'll find if the bull market uptrend continues that very quickly after you buy on a decline that the market will continue up and you will have um you know a nice position that at a lower price
[23:32] so here's another risk here i mean i i've been training 25 years i've seen many bull markets i made a lot of money on some bull markets i lost it all and gave it back i made money and lost money on bear markets as well so i think i've learned a few things about bull markets and bear markets and i think the number one rule here is that you never lose your position and too many people fall victim to this they they're in on the plan they see the
[24:02] long-term potential but they get cute and they think they can extract even more gains out of a bull market by getting out at certain times and trying to get back in at a lower price and let me tell you a bull market can be unforgiving to people who try and time the shorter time frames within a bull market if you try and time a pullback you may find that the market gets away from you and you will then not want to buy back
[24:32] in because you're gonna you're gonna have a higher price because of that and the market's gonna continue and it's gonna continue and you're gonna be locked out of the market and eventually it will pull back and most likely it'll pull back right when you buy because that's going to be the peak pain point for you and what will happen then the market will reverse on you it will give you that 30 decline and again you will be stuck with a higher price point and a bigger position
[25:02] and again emotionally it's going to be something that is going to really scar you in some ways and affect and impact how you how you huddle through the rest of the strategy so just very important here again it's a bull market the goal here is to buy and hold and really nothing else and such a simple concept that people just try too hard in many instances and end up really suffering because of it
[25:32] so the money therefore is made in capturing the movement of the entire trend so from point a to point b and not so much the movement within if you want to capture the movement within then you're essentially trading okay you're not huddling at that point and unless you really know what you're doing there's a good chance that you will significantly significantly underperform the bull market from point a to point b if we look at the four year cycle low
[26:03] and the first videos i did at 4 000 and we look at the potential of maybe getting to 80 120 even further than that you're looking at a 20 x increase over that why that's not enough for some people it is beyond me and um but some people want more and they get greedy and um they try and extract more and what ends up happening is they significantly underperform what is really just a simple concept of
[26:34] buying and holding and allowing time to do the work for us so the enemy again is yourself it's not the market it's your inability to appreciate time and the patience that it takes to capture a bull market trend it's not easy it takes a lot of sitting being patient um it doesn't help looking at price every single day or every single hour and so on when you have a huddle strategy the price that matters is the price at the top of
[27:05] the four year cycle or the price where we hopefully sell at at the top of the four year cycle that's the only price that matters in the end all other price prints up until that point is just noise to somebody that's huddling for that period and if you listen to that noise too closely if you listen to the noise of social media and so on you will second guess your strategy your this journey and you'll end up making a
[27:36] mistake and that's why again it's important that if you're on this journey that there's just the one rule is that you are vested in the bull market and you're vested in the huddle strategy that captures the gains from point a to point b all right so some people say well you know i just have to do something it's just too much action there's just too much excitement i i see people making a lot of money so there's this need for constant action
[28:07] that's that's more of a that's that's a gambling um kind of feeling that you may have or it's a greed based uh emotion that you have and let me tell you unless you know how to how to harness that uh that emotion at least and if you don't know yourself as an individual it can become dangerous and dangerous meaning you can end up losing money uh or certainly significantly underperforming what is the point a to point b
[28:37] trend that we're looking to capture so um you know be be mindful of this and if you have to trade right if you just can't stand by and watch and everyone's getting rich on twitter and everyone's getting rich on social media people are writing link and and all these other um smaller tokens and and blockchains and and so on to to absolute riches if you have to do that um just be mindful that it's bollocks right some people
[29:08] will huddle one of these old coins to far superior gains than bitcoin and i'm not going to dispute that for a second it's definitely possible and i have shared with you in the past that i do have a whole position in ethereum i think ethereum will do extremely well over this cycle as well but 95 percent of people i'm just throwing out a number there 95 i know it's very high they're losing money okay they are definitely losing money because they're throwing darts in the bull
[29:38] market in the bull market you end up capturing a lot of winners because the entire flow of the market is generally higher so they're capturing some really big gains on some pretty big leverage but what you're not seeing when they boast on social media is that they're getting liquidated a lot too because they're really just trading with leverage and they think the answer is simply leverage leverage works well if everything goes up but everything does not go up and especially
[30:08] many of these all coins they go down when they go down they go down sharply and quickly and with very little liquidity in the market so what you're not hearing is about the people that ride so many of these big winning positions to absolute ruin and loss it's very easy to blow an account on one single trade if what you're doing is doubling down and doubling down and doubling down as your account size grows with some some lucky picks in a bull
[30:38] market um you know you're constantly just one big you know losing trade away from a liquidation so just be mindful of that it's not the grass is not green on the other side and there is a temptation to to think that it is and that you should be taking a piece of that pie but let me tell you the pie that we have here in the four year journey is sweet enough and big enough that you should be content happy with that i prefer to take something that has a significantly higher probability of
[31:11] of being an outcome than something that is uh that is not not very high um they can have the risk and if that's what it takes but i'm happy with what i have right here um so what's the answer then so if you just can't resist and you know that you're going to be tempted and you are going to trade or you are going to try and leverage some of this then the answer is very simple separate your accounts i mean i'm obviously a trader i trade full time as well
[31:41] but i have separate accounts for my huddle strategy i use a multi-sig scenario i have uh you know my treasures in safety deposit box i have in other locations as well obviously i can't get to my hotel position without effort without many hours of traveling to get around just to unlock what i have and it's not because i'm tempted necessarily because i'm not i'm i'm disciplined enough to ride this strategy
[32:11] but i have it separate for security reasons but because that is a long-term position i don't need it now i don't expect to need it anytime soon i prefer to focus on security and safety but i also have trading accounts i have futures accounts i have leveraged and they're separate and they are uh focused on different time frames they the decisions i make in those accounts are based on charts i see on a four-hour chart or a
[32:42] 12-hour chart or a daily or weekly whatever the case may be the decisions are different i may be short to market for a couple of weeks while i'm sitting here in a huddle position that's long and that's just the way it is that's time frame so if you need to um you know if you need to trade and if you think you are going to be susceptible to that set up a separate account if you don't have the experience like many of you don't just set up a small one don't risk too much and play play your hand if that's what
[33:13] if that's what you need to do and and learn from it if you lose which you probably will or you will at some point then learn from from it what did you learn what you know why did you lose what are some of the mistakes you made and try and make that a lesson for yourself and if you think you have a talent and you think you can do well it's not an easy game but if you think you can then you know get some books there's plenty of training books out there learn how to trade and learn the process and see where that takes you but the
[33:43] most important message here is don't marry the two play with one part designed to capture the gains on one time frame with what you see in social media what you see on coin market cap and all these other sites don't mix the two separate them two and and create a totally different mindset for both the short term and the long term and that's the way you can then guarantee yourself or at least give yourself a better chance
[34:14] of sticking to the four year huddle strategy versus succumbing to you know all the emotion around trading and what you're seeing online so i'm going to leave you here so this was a relatively short video in the end i'm going to leave you here with um just a simple message here the concept i'm outlining here you know i didn't come up with anything new necessarily right here right it's a bull market that's it it's a bull market and
[34:45] bitcoin has promise it has a lot of promise for so many reasons i've outlined in prior videos there's not a time to go over them right now the promise is that we're in the secular bull market that's going to continue to go higher and substantially higher and you have only one goal right here and that's to capture the majority of that trend and you need the discipline and the pro to follow the process to be able to capture that and that's again it's difficult to achieve and you should
[35:15] use past volatility and past actions of yours as a guide to learn from that and to come out the other end having successful again i'm going to tell you there's going to be nothing no worse feeling for you if the four-year cycle unfolds anywhere close to how i hope it will and you don't capture those gains knowing what you know today so my friends thanks for listening i
[35:45] appreciate i appreciate you liking the video sharing the video if you have any comments of course leave them i'll try and respond to them again focus on risk this is not financial advice of course and i wish you all the very best take care