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[01:07] Hello out there. Welcome to Macro Mondays on Real Vision. My name is Miquel Rosenwal and I'm joined as usual by you, Andreas. Welcome to the show. Thanks very much, Miquel. We have a lot of great grounds to cover today. We're going to be talking about Kevin Warsh, the overall volatility in markets, and we're going to be touching on our macro regime model, which is showing a bit of a shift in the uh current macro environment. So, we're going to look into that and look how into how you should position accordingly. We're also going to be
[01:37] covering uh some of the tweets made over the weekend on on crypto. Uh try and digest that, what we see ahead, and uh yeah, in general, try and unpack the world of macro for you. Remember that this is our free show at Real Vision. We stream this to X and YouTube as well. Um we do a lot more content on Real Vision, especially on the pro show, where you get full access to all our research, uh including our macro model portfolio, which is essentially a selection of mainly tech stocks that we are
[02:07] liking right now. And although we've had some some bumps on the road address, the portfolio has been doing mostly okay this year as you would expect for for from a I should rather call it a tech-heavy portfolio rather than a tech portfolio maybe. Uh but anyway, this is our free show. Remember that we try to be very very actionable, very very straight to the point, and all you always try to explain what the trade is from our analysis. However, you should expect our analysis to be
[02:38] SOMETIMES MAYBE GOOD, SOMETIMES MAYBE [ __ ] ABSOLUTELY, sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe [ __ ] That's the way it is, Andreas. Uh we had a very very volatile last week in markets. Uh last Monday we talked about a quite steady uh opening on on Monday after the the the entire silver crash uh the prior Friday. Um but we should have catch up with volatility during the week. So so was that caused by the silver crash,
[03:09] Andreas, and the the the rotation in metals? Was it caused by the uh uncertainty around Kevin Walsh or what what what explains what we saw last week? Uh first of all, I think there is some merit to the view that the volatility shock we got in precious metals um spilled over to other asset classes. Let me try to briefly explain why that happens. Um you know, I've been running various fund management setups um also in within the hedge fund industry. And when you get such a volatility shock
[03:41] or as the one you got in silver, for example, assuming that I have would been involved in that trade uh as a fund manager, um you essentially get to the conclusion that the risk has increased a lot versus the day before that shock. Meaning that your models, your compliance officers, especially risk managers, they will tell you, "Okay, you have to run less risk in this trade for it to have the same impact on your portfolio as it had 24 hours ago." So, it's a very mechanical process where
[04:13] volatility in one asset class leads to a spike in volatility in other asset classes and a pullback in positioning. So, we we saw that across range of popular trades, to be honest. Everything from, you know, data center stocks to technology stocks more broadly speaking to, you know, some hiccups across other metals, etc. right? So, it was to me kind of the symptom of the volatility, the value at risk shock that we saw in silver, that we started to see
[04:44] positioning pullbacks across lots of other consensus trades. Okay, Anders. We'll look ahead at markets in just a little bit. I just want to get past the the laugh of the week and this is was I think you retweeted this and dressed this very, very Italian guy standing watching their GDP grow by 0.3% instead of 0.2% percent thanks to the Olympic Winter Games. That I think that that's always like an FT story whenever you have Olympic Games that this is going to boost the GDP. It's it's a very, very lazy
[05:15] analysis. Have you been watching anything from the Winter Games yet, Anders? I don't know. I don't know. Someone sent me the you know, terrible accident with Lindsey Vonn, but other than that, no. You know, I'm I'm not particularly into winter sports. Saying that, you know, watching the snow outside here, but we don't we don't have any slopes here. So, we're not good at it. So, no, I haven't watched anything. We're we're a part of the ice hockey Olympics this time around in Denmark for the first >> Oh, well.
[05:46] for the first time with a decent team because last time we participated as well but it was without the NHL players as far as I remember due to the COVID hiccups during that season etc. So I think ice hockey will be interesting. Absolutely. Denmark should be really really good at winter Olympics but we're not. So but anyway it's it's a lot of fun to watch out there. But let's get back to macro. I just love this picture a lot of of things going down in in in Milan Milan down there. So Andreas I wanted to bring this this chart along.
[06:16] You sent me this earlier today because a lot of people ascribe the volatility we saw last week and some of the negativity in markets also to to be correlated to the nomination of Kevin Warsh. And there's been a lot of debate about is he a hawk is he a dove? Can we say anything definitively? Here's an attempt at looking at some some statistics. What what's what's your take on this whole discussion Andreas? >> [snorts] >> First of all this is taken from the Economist and they've been running some
[06:46] you know word count analysis on Kevin Warsh speeches and you know public comments since 2006. And you know a couple of takeaways here. His views are incredibly correlated with the so called color of the president in the White House right? So every time there is a Republican in power you see him with with a very different set of views compared to when there is a Democrat in power. You you obviously see
[07:16] this with other members of the committee so I don't think this is you know a a trait that is particularly true only for Kevin Warsh. What I'd like to highlight is the following. And maybe we can touch upon Japan in a second where we had the elections over the weekend Michael. I think everything that's ongoing in Japan right now where they basically allow the commercial banking system to do the heavy lifting in in of creating new money uh is the exact task that they've given Kevin Warsh. They want the central bank
[07:47] to play a smaller role in the economy to the extent possible, uh but they want the central bank to cooperate with politicians on how to create a strong economy via the private system. Uh and to me that is an incredibly bullish backdrop because if you're starting to fire on this no on all cylinders and you're starting to um treat monetary policy as an instrument for fiscal policy makers. Uh
[08:17] we're starting to talk about monetary policy that always supports uh the notions of the administration. Uh and that is potentially incredibly bullish. Uh we still need to see how uh this develops in real life, but I'm pretty sure that we'll get some sort of moralized formalized cooperation model between Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh. Uh which is, you know, it's a regime shift. Uh even though we obviously
[08:47] saw some cooperation between Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, for example, during COVID. Uh it was much less explicit. Uh it wasn't formalized. It wasn't put down in a treaty. I they even discussed this openly now that whether they should formalize this legally, right? So, uh I think this is a regime shift in many ways um in uh in the Federal Reserve system. Uh and we haven't even, you know, discussed the possibility of Trump gaining a supermajority within the board yet
[09:18] because that that's also also something that is potentially on the cards on top of Kevin Warsh coming in. So, a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called prepare for 2030. I think you've got 5 years to make as much money as possible and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. Absolutely Andras, so so so very very very bullish outlook there in the in any case. I think the notion that he's an inherently hawkish
[09:49] Fed chairman should should should be debunked for now. Then then then we'll see how things play out, but it's it's it's very very obvious that he's been given a job and accepted to do that. So Andras, speaking of regime changes, that was a very very nice segue. We're obviously running our macro regimes. We do tend to bring them into the show on occasion. Now I'm going to throw a complete curveball at our producer Peter and and try to display our NowKast IQ service where we run the the the macro regimes and see if we can get it on
[10:19] screen here. So so sorry for that Peter, didn't really prepare you for that, but hopefully we can make it work anyway. So so Andras, when we talk about our macro regimes, it's a combination of the the likelihood that growth, inflation, and liquidity are on the rise. When when when they begin to to to point in the right direction, we can be in various macro regimes. And right now we're seeing a shift from what we call QE-like to gung-ho as you see in the in in the center of the screen here. What What does that mean Andras and why we're
[10:50] seeing this shift now? Um so I guess the short version of this is that the QE-like regime that we've been in for uh I'd say a handful of months, basically since September-October last year, um was a regime that was dominated by you know, decent private sector liquidity, but but weak cyclical growth uh and low inflation. And the big game changer now is that we see cyclical growth returning. So basically the green line that you're trying to highlight over there, while
[11:20] inflation remains very low and liquidity remains on a positive trajectory. Uh so I think the most interesting part here is that uh, watching the reporting season last week, for example, with Alphabet, um, we still see rise in CapEx also relative to expectations from many analysts. Uh, you know, the Magnificent probably surprised when I look at like 40, 50% uh, on top of already elevated uh, CapEx expectations. That is to me a testimony
[11:52] to what we've been saying for uh, three, four months straight that uh, the CapEx window this year is one that you're going to utilize no matter whether you want it or not as a uh, CFO or as an executive in the US because we're talking about a clear incentivization to do CapEx exactly this year uh, due to these bonus depreciation rules included in uh, in the big beautiful bill. Uh, so you're incredibly incentivized to do CapEx this year. Um,
[12:22] Alphabet found out, um, Amazon found out, but also smaller companies are starting to figure that out. Uh, they'll they'll obviously be on the receiving end of many of these orders. Uh, so what I'm trying to say here is that the cyclical growth outlook is improving because of this CapEx cycle. Uh, and I think it's still very underestimated. What's even more underestimated is that this cyclical backup arrives at the same time as probably the softest inflation reports that we're going to see in years over
[12:52] the next couple of months. Uh, so when we look at our and our casts, one thing is to look at it probability based, but if we look at it probabilistically, uh, we're talking about inflation that is running at, say, between 13 and 15 basis points a month. Um, so a bit more than 0.1% uh, the consensus for this week is 0.3% uh, for the change in in January. Uh, I'm not sure why every single analyst is stuck in this 0.3% every month mindset because that
[13:24] was kind of the case for a long while that we were at 0.3, 0.3, 0.3. And every single month you get to the consensus that it will increase by 0.3. I don't think any of these people actually run the numbers. Um Which keeps surprising me, but um you know now casting these things and then actually some of the Federal Reserve banks doing now casting get to the same conclusion that the consensus this week is is far too high. Uh so having said that, the biggest surprise element now that the capex cycle is slowly but surely getting the sauce done
[13:56] is probably that we get capex cyclical spending and low inflation at the same time. To me that's a regime shift relative to what we've seen the past 4 5 months. And one that speaks in favor of a rotation out of all of the trades that we've seen people rotating into from the get-go of this year. That's interesting. So what what what are you referring to there, Andreas? The the precious metal bets or or on equities? Uh to some extent the precious metals bets actually. Um I I I think
[14:27] you know, the perfect backdrop that we had for that trade uh since late last year is um you know, it's behind us. Uh if you look at the development across equity sectors, uh we've seen consumer staples trading higher. We've seen industrials trading higher. Um we've seen the energy sector trading higher, etc. Uh also relative to consumer discretionary technology, some of the sectors that have done very very well over the past year or so otherwise.
[14:57] Uh so it it it appears that we've seen some sort of rotation out of technology into real life assets. Um If inflation comes down uh which seems very very likely given our now casting, uh it's typically good good news for technology, but it's especially good news for consumer discretionary. And why is that? Well, um think of consumer discretionary as spending that is uh slightly more exorbitant than just average everyday spending, right?
[15:27] When inflation comes down, the average consumer is better equipped from a purchasing power perspective to also buy things that are slightly more discretionary in nature. And I think that's the kind of environment that we're getting to now. So this is good news for Amazon, Tesla, and stocks that are like that. You know, truly connected to this discretionary spending cycle because that spending cycle would like to return now. And could be oil as well. And there's one of one of the one of the commodities that's looking very, very strong. That's obviously very much related to the Iran
[15:57] issue, which I think we'll we'll we'll we'll cover in a little while. So So very, very interesting development, Andreas. Um I just also just wanted to to show this. One second, I'm just getting to it here. Um this tweet by Donald Trump because if we have this regime change in the US, we have to talk a little bit about what that means for crypto. Um I think we've seen during the year, and I I felt this as well at our at the Real Vision conference in Miami, a big disappointment in what this
[16:27] administration has been doing for crypto. They wanted to make US the crypto capital of the world. Donald Trump reiterated this on on on Saturday. Um it seems like now the focus is back on crypto. But is this really Is this actually good or bad for crypto, you think, Andreas? Um I'll say a couple of things in that. Um I said during that exact conference that you referred to that I personally got very annoyed when I
[16:57] watched the live panels from Davos that exact same week that all of a sudden all of the executives that we, you know, typically won't once a year, you know, we were laughing at them every time they were on the panels in Davos. Oh, they don't they don't get this. They still want to block it, etc. Now they're actually to a larger extent embracing the trade which feels kind of odd to to me. You know, I I I'm I've personally been in crypto also as a contrarian bit and it feels less
[17:28] contrarian today to be honest. Having said that, uh we also saw the Democrats tweeting a a chart with the drawdown in Bitcoin and then a picture of Donald Trump on the golf course as well. Uh And they they received a lot of criticism for that. Um as far as I can gauge from various opinion polls, crypto holders are pretty divided between the two parties. It's not like there is a a massive Mecca movement within crypto anymore. It probably was a year ago, but it's it's less clear today. Um
[17:59] so I'm not sure whether they're are the Democrats trying to, you know, tattoo Trump's face to the straw. I would have think that's basically what they're trying to portray here. >> [laughter] >> But but it also comes across as slightly arrogant uh if you know what I mean towards the investors that have lost money. Uh so I I think crypto will be a battlefield ahead of the midterms. We know at least that's what we hear that there will be a meeting between crypto companies, banking executives, and the Trump administration on the Clarity Act tomorrow Tuesday. Um
[18:31] so they're trying to to figure out how to get this across the the line ahead of the midterms. I can also see that various prediction markets now see it as a base case that the Clarity Act is actually voted through ahead of the midterms. So um Trump it will be a major theme. And one thing that I can guarantee you is that Donald Trump wants Bitcoin in new all-time highs by the midterms. I mean that that would be a very important gauge for him. Exactly. Exactly. At least as high as as the level of
[19:01] when he was elected. So so absolutely I think this is a run right now to deliver on the Clarity Act, logging those crypto donors first and foremost, and then in 8 months time to to to secure them or or nine months time to secure them for to secure the votes as well as well. So, a very very interesting address. Speaking of of the Trump administration and and it's immediate surroundings, I want to touch upon Elon Musk as well, Inderesh. I don't know if you have because we often
[19:31] talk about things going to the moon. Elon Musk is going to the moon, it seems, and we we we received a lot of a lot of questions on this. Uh that that Elon Musk now tweeting a bit strangely. For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted its focus. So, now it's all about the moon and not about Mars. Uh the way I see this, Inderesh, and what your take on it as well. I don't know I'm not sure if there's a macro angle to this. I just found it really interesting. To me, this seems like Elon Musk is trying to um align himself with the NASA and align
[20:04] the main source of funding for SpaceX ahead of an IPO. Uh I don't know whether it's it's best to go to the moon or to Mars, but it's it's absolutely contrary to what he said in the past. Uh so is is this uh could this also be a driver for some of the investments into Space Tech that we see? Because a move to the moon is shorter. It's it it could be more about building up um data centers on the moon essentially. Yeah. Um so,
[20:34] >> [clears throat] >> a couple of things. F- First of all, I've I've always laughed at that idea that we need a city on the moon or a city on Mars and then we know who the hell's going to move there. At at least I will not volunteer. You know, having said that, the Space Tech trade has been pretty interesting this year and we've seen great returns in our portfolio from that exact theme. Last week, Jim Chanos, the famous short seller, in my opinion, basically trolled this
[21:05] entire data center community by saying you cannot buy the data center stocks here on Earth because in a few years we'll have space data centers, right? The same Jim Chanos said 2 months ago that the return on investment of building a data center on Earth was very bad. I'd like him to complete the case of of creating a a space data center with a strong ROI right now. I don't think that's feasible either. Sam Altman got the question on a podcast
[21:35] last week, will we get data centers in space before 2030? He said no, it's completely out of the question. I I have to agree with that. Even though you know, even though if we bring them closer to Earth, if you know what I mean. I mean this notion that the Mars the moon city is closer than the Mars city, is that more tangible? >> [gasps] >> Okay. It's a reach. I get it. So, um what I'm also mainly trying to say here is that the space tech trade is first and foremost a bet on
[22:06] missile defense in my opinion for now. It's a best bet on this dome that Trump wants to build building dome, yeah. Yeah, have a golden dome, which is essentially much more tangible than this whole space data center, let's build a city on Mars thing. And I've been right that the you know, high beta levered AI traded tech this year was the space trade and not the quantum trade. The quantum trade was last year. And I think it's very related to
[22:37] evidently what you can see here that we have this whole run up to the IPO of SpaceX, a lot of focus from the administration on this golden dome project. And so on and so forth. It seems like everyone has forgotten about the quantum case X, the Bitcoin investors. It's true. [laughter] It's true, Andreas. Okay, finally Andreas, before we round off here, I want to touch a little bit on Iran because it is to me still one of the big risks looming out there for for for for market sentiment. We know that talks are ongoing. They
[23:08] crashed a little bit last week, talks between Iran and the US on a new nuclear deal. We had some ideas or some reports on what this deal might include. It's less about oil and trade than I had hoped for. It's more about stopping the immediate issues, which is Iran's nuclear build-up, Iran's support for various rebel groups, and obviously the the situation of the regime the regime in entirety in Iran. So, the status right now and why I'm drawing attention
[23:38] to this is that talks are ongoing right now, today Monday, tomorrow Tuesday, in Oman. But Prime Minister Netanyahu is coming to DC on Wednesday. And he's seemingly going to the DC with a pitch to bomb Iran heavily. Perhaps even the threat that if you don't do it, I'm going to do it. And for some reason it goes when we went back to to May and the the last bombing run on Iran, that was you know, that was presented as a done deal. We solved this and now here we are
[24:11] 7-8 months later looking at potentially another bombing run on Iran because obviously they they they started up new nuclear facilities. And they staved off the the rebellions that were ongoing. So, to sum this up, I think you have an increased chance of a of a US or an Israeli strike on Iran this week, which is obviously going to have huge impacts both typically in the short term, drive volatility into markets, uncertainty, but but but slightly longer term also in in oil markets, which are already
[24:42] showing signs of of of of an increasing oil price. This, if we get this on the screen, is probably going to push it back for a few days because the the US is sending J.D. Vance to Azerbaijan, right next to Iran. So, while he is in air or you know, within a few hundred miles of the Iranian border, I don't think they're going to attack Iran. But, it could come later this week, towards the end of the week. So, so, so, really something to monitor going during the week. It's not likely that we're going to have
[25:12] an elaborate peace deal. It's more likely going to be a framework deal if we if that's the route. If that can't be reached, then a then the US and Israelis are essentially ready to strike Iran, strike the nuclear facilities once again. This time even harder than last time in the hope that it will also shake the the regime down there. So, something to be to be aware of going into this week, something to monitor. We'll always obviously been be covering this on on Real Vision. And maybe maybe they should just send JD
[25:42] Vance to meet the Ayatollah in person, right? Because, you know, every time you met someone in person last year, they ended up dying a natural death shortly after, right? So, I mean, maybe that's just >> so, man. That's actually that's actually a good a good idea. The Ayatollah is getting old, so that that that that would cynically speaking solve a lot of problems if that was to happen. But, but anyway, Andreas, yeah, something to watch. We'll be covering on Real Vision. We have a lots of other great content for you this week on Real Vision as well. We are obviously you
[26:12] just posted your Steno Signals article. I don't know if that's available yet. It will be very very shortly. I have my The Drill coming out this Wednesday with an update on the Iran situation and geopolitics in general. And then we post our portfolio update every Friday where we are probably going to be making some changes this week or what, Andreas? Yeah, I I I think so because we've had this regime shift in macro. So, you'll see some changes during the week from us. I'll also highlight that tomorrow I'll try and spell out why I think Kevin
[26:45] Walsh as the Fed chair paired with this, you know, treaty this pact with the US Treasury will be incredibly credit and liquidity enhancing for the upcoming two to three years. They're trying to orchestrate a credit bonanza as we saw back in 2005 to 2007. You know, Trump knows this is his last term, so why not just you know, give everyone a loan until the end of this cycle. I think it it is an incredibly cyclical
[27:15] backdrop and one that carries a lot of ramifications for for assets. And I sharply disagree with those people who expect this notion that the Fed's balance sheet should shrink in this scenario to impact asset pricing a lot because they're essentially just trying to cooperate balance sheets between the Treasury, the Fed and the private sector in a way that is a lot more managed. You can debate the medium-term consequence of
[27:46] this from now on until Christmas, but the short-term consequence of such a cooperation is that more credit will be given to the economy. Mhm. Absolutely. And this is going to be out on the Elves for sure. Elves for sure. Thank you. Sorry. I just missed the name on Real Vision. So, if you are if you've been lurking and wanting to try out Real Vision, this this would be a a very good time to try that out. It's not quite as expensive as the pro share where you get the the full package and our model portfolio. So,
[28:17] this could be a good way to to get started on Real Vision. So, uh just a little a little suggestion there. Any final remarks address before we round off the show this week? No, but I you know, we've seen a macro regime shift. Inflation is coming down. Um the Wall Street consensus is off on inflation. I I dare to be cocky around that given the quality of the data that we have. While cyclical growth is coming up, it's hard not to be upbeat for the returns over the next couple of months here. That's great, Andreas. Hopeful for that. Thanks to you for joining, and thanks to
[28:47] everyone for watching this week. We'll be back during the week with a lot more content on Real Vision, and if nothing else, we'll see you next Monday. Moments. They have the power to change everything. The moments we try something new. The moments we travel [music] thousands of miles in seconds. The ones that transform how we spend, [music] how we save, how we build.
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