Bob Loukas
El flujo y reflujo
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TL;DR
Resumen de investigación
▶ Objetivo y operaciones del portafolio modelo
Bob Lucas presenta la actualización del 9 de septiembre de 2026 y aclara que el portafolio modelo es una estrategia de mantener con pocas operaciones, dirigida a quienes no quieren operar ni intentar anticipar el mercado. Su objetivo es superar la estrategia de comprar periódicamente o mantener durante toda la volatilidad de los ciclos, conservar exposición a bitcoin al menos la mitad del tiempo y reducir el riesgo de quedarse fuera si el mercado sigue subiendo. Informa que el viernes añadió exposición a 79.700, por encima de la compra previa a 65.000 en junio. Según su cálculo, si se invirtiera el efectivo restante, el portafolio tendría alrededor de 47 bitcoins, frente a los 35 iniciales, un aumento aproximado del 35% respecto de mantener. Como comparación hipotética, dice que vender el 100% y recomprar el 100% en los mismos momentos de las operaciones del portafolio habría dado 94 bitcoins. Señala que esa alternativa requiere una estrategia más activa, que cubre en Bitcoin Live.
▶ Señales técnicas y motivo de la compra
Lucas sitúa una resistencia en el máximo de mayo, alrededor de 82.500. Si el precio supera ese nivel, dice que tendría que considerar definitivamente formado el mínimo del ciclo; hasta entonces ve una transición entre fase bajista y alcista, sin confirmación semanal de cambio de tendencia. En el gráfico semanal observa máximos y mínimos descendentes desde el pico de octubre; romper por encima de 82.500 cambiaría esa lectura y podría, en el gráfico mensual, establecer máximos de seis meses que suelen indicar un cambio de tendencia. Explica que añadió exposición para evitar que el mercado se aleje mientras el portafolio está poco invertido. Fundamenta su decisión en dos señales mensuales que, según él, suelen aparecer cuando se forma un mínimo de ciclo: un patrón de giro alcista tras la vela baja de julio, con cierre de agosto por encima del máximo de la vela de capitulación de junio, y un cierre por encima de la media móvil descendente de diez meses. Aclara que ninguna señal constituye confirmación plena.
▶ Mínimo posible, incertidumbre y escenarios
Lucas afirma que las señales no descartan nuevas caídas ni confirman definitivamente el mínimo. Si tuviera que elegir, cree que el mínimo del ciclo de cuatro años se formó en julio, unos tres meses antes que en ciclos previos, aunque dice que necesita más avance y una tendencia alcista más estable. Por esa incertidumbre dejó efectivo disponible para añadir si el precio vuelve a probar o perfora los mínimos de julio. Explica que en ciclos anteriores compró antes de confirmar el giro cuando hubo caídas profundas, ciclos de duración completa y varias capitulaciones; en el ciclo actual, esperaba una posible extensión bajista de alrededor del 30% o más, pero esa caída aún no se ha producido y el precio ha revertido, formado un giro mensual y superado la media móvil de diez meses. Considera que debe responder a la acción del precio y evitar aferrarse a una pauta histórica como si fuera inevitable. Enumera escenarios posibles: superar 82.500 y después caer durante septiembre, octubre o noviembre hacia 63.000 o la zona de 58.000–60.000, o formar un mínimo más profundo y completar un ciclo de cuatro años de duración tradicional. También advierte que el precio podría subir hacia 85.000, 90.000 o 95.000 antes de cualquier retroceso. Su planteamiento busca mantener exposición ante una subida y limitar el efecto de escenarios adversos, sin afirmar cuál ocurrirá.
▶ Umbral para invertir el efectivo restante
Como ejemplo de la rapidez posible de los movimientos, Lucas señala que una vela semanal subió de 62.000 a 80.000; plantea que otra subida de magnitud similar podría llevar el precio a 96.000 y poner a prueba los máximos de enero. Dice que la compra reciente reconoce esa posibilidad aunque todavía pueda haber una nueva prueba de niveles inferiores. Para el efectivo que queda en el portafolio, propone como disparador automático una ruptura por encima de los máximos de mayo, con un margen hasta 85.000. Reconoce que la ruptura podría ser una trampa alcista, pero considera que, tras otra consolidación de tres semanas, también podría anticipar un movimiento hacia 97.000. Si el precio supera 85.000, su plan es invertir todo el efectivo y mantener la posición, aun si luego retrocede a 70.000, 65.000 o 60.000.
▶ Riesgo bajista y actualización del plan
Lucas distingue entre una corrección que pruebe la zona media del rango entre 82.000 y 60.000 y un retroceso completo hasta 60.000 o incluso 40.000. Considera poco probable el nivel de 40.000, pero dice que podría darse en dos o tres meses si coincide con una caída general de los activos de riesgo tras un largo período favorable para las acciones. En retrospectiva, tal caída encajaría, según él, con la duración y el retroceso de un ciclo tradicional, por lo que aún no puede descartarse. Reitera que por encima de 85.000 sería arriesgado permanecer fuera esperando una gran corrección. Si no se alcanza ese nivel, dice que comunicará dónde comprar ante una reversión bajista; si se alcanza, se actualizará la hoja de cálculo para reflejar la inversión del efectivo y luego esperará el siguiente ciclo.
▶ Otros análisis y confirmación futura
Lucas remite a Bitcoin Live para quienes buscan una estrategia más activa basada en ciclos semanales, compras más próximas a los mínimos y ventas parciales durante las subidas; dice que publica allí al menos dos videos por semana y que actualmente mantiene una posición en Ethereum y otras posiciones en altcoins. Espera que en unos dos meses haya más claridad: si el precio supera 80.000–85.000, podría evaluar el mínimo del ciclo incluso después de un retroceso; si no supera esa zona y vuelve a caer, el mínimo podría coincidir con el siguiente video. Aclara que un mínimo de ciclo depende de una ventana temporal y no siempre coincide con el mínimo de precio. Si el precio cae en los próximos dos o tres meses y vuelve a probar esta zona sin superar el nivel indicado, considera más probable que siga en una fase bajista y que la subida actual haya sido una trampa alcista; señala que el sentimiento social ya es muy alcista y que una caída aún podría situar el mínimo alrededor del mes 47 o 48. Concluye que, pese a su inclinación a pensar que el mínimo ya se formó, no lo considera definitivo ni busca presentar una predicción absoluta.
Transcripción completa
[0:34] want to address a lot of comments uh especially on X and on YouTube about the model portfolio and the sort of goals behind it. Um as stated maybe eight years ago and continuously since then, the model portfolio is simply just a huddle strategy. It is designed for people who don't want to trade, who don't want to time the market. uh it's a better strategy than maybe a DCA or just simply holding through the
[1:04] massive volatility and draw downs that we see over the cycles every four years. That was essentially the goal. The goal was to stay uh invested at least 50% of the time in Bitcoin and to make sure that if the market did continue upwards without looking back, without pulling significantly lower into a 4-year cycle that you would always have the full exposure. So there was an element of not being left behind within that which is
[1:35] why there are so few trades and why it's not aggressive in timing and why it's not aggressive in trying to uh sell as much as possible near the peak and buy as much as possible on the way down the bottom. It's a strategy designed for fewer trades, fewer headaches, and to outperform um hodddling as a straight option. So, the 4-year um portfolio added 10 here on Friday, I believe it was, at 79,700.
[2:07] Obviously, higher than what you would have hoped or higher than the 65,000 ad that was done in June. And I'll cover the reasons behind that uh in terms of what how the 4year cycle is shaping up at the moment. But to address kind of the people that say, "Well, you know, you could have done more, traded more." Uh, again, at the moment, if the remaining cash was deployed right now, it'd be around about 47 bitcoin in the model portfolio up from the initial 35
[2:39] or around about 35% increase uh in the actual amount of Bitcoin held versus say a huddle. And that is really the goal overall. If you wanted to be more aggressive on this or time the market or be looking at weekly charts, I encourage you to take a look at Bitcoin Live where I post two videos per week. And in that portfolio, in this spot portfolio, it's far more active and that is positioned both mostly from the bottom uh for this
[3:11] move. So, I'll have a link in the bottom. uh even just this model portfolio if you were if you would have simply looked at it from a more aggressive perspective and sold at the same time and bought at the same time that the current model portfolio did but instead sold 100% and bought back 100% then you would have 94 Bitcoin from the initial 35. So basically a 3x from that. So uh just want to make it very clear this is
[3:42] geared only for people who don't want to trade who don't want to time who are not looking for signals just taking the broad eb and flow of the market taking a little bit off the top or near the top as it begins breaking down and then starting to add again near the bottom. That's who it's designed for. And again the reason here as you can see 10 trades over an 8-year period is the goal. fewer trades and just ensure that you you don't get left behind essentially. So
[4:13] now that I've covered that, let's talk about the four-year cycle and the reason for adding additional exposure here where you would argue we are at some resistance because we have a high in May at the 82,500 level above that point above the 82,500 level which we're not too far away. we could we can get to that level in a couple of trading days or even one trading day. Above that, I would have to make the argument
[4:43] definitively that the fouryear cycle low has been printed. Until that happens, we're still in this sort of transitional period between a a bare phase and a bull phase. And we don't have sort of ultimate confirmation where you can say that the 4-year cycle low is in because we don't have on a weekly time frame a a clear change in the intermediate cycle trend. As you can see in this weekly
[5:13] chart where we peaked back in October, the major peaks here are still showing us lower highs and the lows here are showing us lower lows above this 82, sort of 500 level. They may peak that trend breaks and the intermediate trend now starts to look as if it's heading higher. And when you look at that from a monthly perspective, then you start to get into a situation where you have sixmonth highs and six-month highs at
[5:44] this phase would typically signal that the trend is now reversed and is heading in the opposite or the other direction. So the bull trend uh but the main reason for adding is twofold. One is as I mentioned on the model portfolio. I don't want a situation in this strategy which is basically just a smarter huddle strategy. Don't want a situation where the market runs away from you and you're underinvested. The goal is to not have
[6:16] to buy back higher than the cell. Uh I mean it's not always possible, but that's essentially the goal. And what I'm seeing right here is two indicators that generally flash when a cycle low is in. They're not full confirmation. There's no such thing in investing, but they more often than not signal that a new cycle has begun. And the first is the swing. So using the low
[6:47] candle uh of the downtrend, that low candle closing the next or any other following candle firmly above the high of that candle is a swing on the monthly candle. So the current low is this 44month low candle set in July. That swing level is around about 67. That's not very high. But you had this very clear sort of capitulation candle in June that began [clears throat] up at
[7:18] the 74,000 level and that candle was completely engulfed and we closed firmly above that here in the August candle. Second, we closed firmly and comfortably above the declining 10-month moving average. And the 10 bar average to me is a pretty good trend setter. and closing above that level in a decline more often than not signals that the market is in a reversal stage. So these two indicators
[7:52] coupled with again the strategy of not being left behind is the reason for adding more to the portfolio. Uh does that mean we can't go down? Of course not. Does that mean the four-ear cycle low has ended definitively? And the answer is no. But gun to my head, if I had to make a decision one way or another, and if it's just a simple yes or no uh response, I would have to say that I think the four-year cycle low has printed here in July about 3 to four
[8:24] months ear, 3 months earlier than the prior cycles uh in the timing band still, but an early cycle low. Again, it's not definitive. We need some more a little more upside, a little bit more of an established uptrend to kind of rule that out. But this is the way it's looking right now. And the reason for adding some additional exposure and the reason for leaving some cash deployment here in the portfolio is also for the same reason.
[8:55] We don't have that definitive answer yet. the 4 year cycle low is in and we want to keep some spare change for adding on a situation where we're still going to head lower, test those lows that we set here in July, possibly even exceed those and put in a more traditional fulllength cycle. I love a lot of people like to say things like, well, yeah, you didn't catch the low this time. You know, you did the last two cycles, you caught the low perfectly. this 79,000 ad is, you know,
[9:28] substantially off the 58,000 low. And my answer is simply, well, there's a strategy here. All right? It's not just a blind gut feel. It it involves looking at the cycle lengths and looking at sentiment and looking at price action to determine when is the likelihood that a cycle low is in. in the last cycle adding here at around the 16 or 17,000 level. I didn't wait for that swing. I didn't wait for the confirmation of a
[9:58] close above the 10-month moving average. I didn't do the same also back here in 2018 or so for the one simple reason is that the cycle the price in both of those cycle declines went deep into the cycle and completed the full timing window or the full length of the cycle. In addition to that into the timing for a fulllength cycle, we had a capitulation,
[10:29] a second capitulation or even a third capitulation into those lows. If you look at the 18 period, there are a number of capitulations, but we had into November and then into December, a final massive draw down being around 85% off those off those bull highs into the low. And for me, that's when you can frontr run the market and not wait or have to wait for confirmation of a cycle low and pick up positions. And the same thing happened back here in 2022. We had the
[10:59] decline, we had another one, then we had this 3 4 month consolidation, then we had another 30% decline. Here we had a capitulation and another one and then we were kind of on that cusp. And if you're following a strategy, the strategy here is saying we're still 3 to 4 months early. We're kind of testing this support level. There's a higher likelihood that in the in the coming month or months, you're going to see a 30% or more continuation lower to
[11:30] complete the cycle. And that's simply what the strategy was waiting for. It didn't materialize. At least it hasn't materialized yet. It's now reversed. It's formed a swing. It's closed above the 10-month moving average. And as an investor, I have to respect price action over anything else. And of course, given the the strategies goal, as I mentioned earlier, to me, this is a matter of not sticking to a a view or a certain time when the market's going to decline. It's
[12:01] acknowledging that this looks different, feels different, acting differently, and it's giving me some confirming signals that a low might be in place. Therefore, it warrants adding the exposure knowing that like any market, that 4year cycle low may not well be in yet. that this could be a trap that we may even in the coming week or so exceed that 82,500 level which seems to be a very very much
[12:32] a watched and discussed level on social media. It could well get above that level, get the bulls super excited trap at that point and then spend the remainder of September, October, maybe even November simply coming back down to a lower level. Maybe it's a 63,000 level. Maybe it's retesting the 5860,000 level. And maybe, and this is open possibility with credible possibility,
[13:02] that it can go down, make a deeper low, and then complete a full 4-year cycle in the timing band and then begin the next bull phase. I don't have the answers to that. I can only again me as I mentioned respond to the price action and this recent price action tells me as an investor as a long-term investor that I don't want to hang on to some idea that is more that historically occurs um and
[13:35] treat it as if it must happen and have a very dogmatic approach to seeing that through. Um, I've learned through experience that doing that will often um, keep you in that bias and leave you sort of left behind. And before you know it, and Bitcoin is a type of asset that can really leave you behind. Before you know it, Bitcoin could be up at the 85, 90, 95,000 level. And then you're in that situation where you're kind of trapped. It's like, I know a decline's
[14:07] coming. I know a shakeout's going to come sooner or later. I can't buy here. And then you don't know what happens after that. You might be back at 97. So there are multiple paths any any market can take. All we can do is try and position best for each of these scenarios and have the best possible outcome knowing that you are sort of protected from the worst of those scenarios and you are have exposure to the best of those scenarios. having one
[14:37] and one view only. Uh when the market responds accordingly, it's great and it's the best result, but the market often doesn't uh doesn't uh comply with with with those wishes or those views and then it becomes a much more difficult situation uh to handle. And here's the example on the weekly. I mean, this one weekly candle went up from 62 to 80,000. All right, it's an $18,000 candle. We don't know if we get
[15:08] another $18,000 candle and before you know it, we're at uh 96 and we're testing the January highs earlier this year. It's something that Bitcoin is capable of doing. And by adding at this level, I'm acknowledging that like I mentioned, we still may have this retest coming, right? And I'll have to deal with that. It's not the end of the world. We've added more Bitcoin this cycle. still not as much or anywhere near as much as I would have hoped. But again, that's investing. But I added
[15:40] there because I feel that the risk that the market does this before rolling over, maybe retesting the breakout and going is very plausible and and for the reasons I mentioned earlier here on the monthly chart and the swing and the move back above the moving average in terms of sort of having a notification out there on the deployment of the remainder of the position. or the cash in the model portfolio.
[16:12] Um, I think just just to make it easier, not having to sort of do another video when it comes, uh, what I'm looking at here is a breakout above those May highs, slightly above that, giving a little bit of cushion at the 85,000 level. Uh, that would be an automatic trigger to add because if we break above that, sure, it may be a bull trap before moving lower. Again, we can't guard against that, but a breakout after another 3-week consolidation here could
[16:43] signal that a move up towards the 97,000 level is coming. And we don't know from that point whether it pulls back or how much it pulls back. And and again in the spirit of not being um fully allocated in a bull market move, a move above 85,000 I think is just a signal to fully load up and then wait and sit it out. And if that means getting to 85 and at some point in the next month or two pulling back to the 70 or 65 or 60
[17:15] level, so be it. the huddle remains in place and we start to look ahead at the next possible cycle and what the targets there might look like. on the downside as well. There's an argument again that be made that we should have to just wait and see um on what this brings because we don't know in the pullback right here whether or not we get as I mentioned earlier just a retest of say the midpoint of these 82,000 and 60,000 lows
[17:46] before moving higher or is it a full retracement of this range back to the 60,000 level or even lower into say the 40,000 level the 40,000 level doesn't seem likely, but if over the next two or three months it headed down to that level, it may be in conjunction with a broader riskoff environment, equity markets sort of selling off after what has been a pretty fantastic run for a long period of time. It could get caught
[18:16] up in something like that. And uh if the chart ended that way over the next 3 months, it probably in in the future in hindsight wouldn't look that uh uh that unusual. Okay? Because it would fit the timing. It would fit uh a traditional cycle in terms of draw down from the peak in terms of length from low to low. Uh and that can't be ruled out just yet. As I mentioned before, back above the 85,000 level, it's you really have to
[18:48] have uh you're really sticking in neck out thinking that you're going to get a big pullback and not being exposed. Um so that is the goal here. I will keep you updated on where the buy would be on a reversal to the downside. If 85 doesn't get hit, 85 gets hit. just make the assumption that the the spreadsheet will be updated to reflect that and then we'll wait for as I mentioned before the next cycle to come. If you're looking for trading uh
[19:19] cycles on a different strategy, more in tune with the weekly time frame, more aggressive in its nature, uh trying to get in more at the lows of a cycle and so on and trimming on the way up, uh then I have a link to Bitcoin Live in the description of this video. You're free to check it out. Uh that's where I post two at least two videos per week, often more on the daytoday or week-toeek coverage, including uh a lot of
[19:49] altcoins. We do have an Ethereum position right now and some others uh if you're interested in that. So with that, hopefully that's a good update. The next video will probably uh in about maybe two months or so, we'll probably have a much better definition if the four-ear cycle lowers in. I think we'll either have cleared this level, possibly pulled back, but be able to say the four-ear cycle lowers in. If we don't get above the 80 85,000 level here in the coming weeks and we start heading lower, then
[20:20] that next video may correspond with um the actual 4-year cycle low. The price low, just to make another clarifying point and something I have talked about many times in prior videos, a cycle low does not uh always form with the price low. It comes with a timing band. So, the timing window. So if we do form or if we do decline over the next 2 or 3 months and retest this area without kind
[20:50] of getting above this point then it's more likely um related to the declining phase still in the bare phase with this being more of a bull trap. And we can see that with social and how sentiment is already very bullish and a a move down to this level would still um be a low around the 47 or 48month mark. Again, still have to wait and see how this unfolds. I am leaning obviously with the addition and so on with the
[21:20] idea that the cycle low is in, but again, it's it's not definitive at this point. Um, I can I can always throw out a definitive call or an absolute call and look for clout from that perspective, but that's not the way I view markets. Never have. And these videos have never been about uh that at all. So, wishing you all the very best. Thanks for following along and take care.