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So I have somewhat of a hot take. Good. The big labs already are behind. In two very important ways. What are the leading personal agents? Muse and Instinct. Not the big labs. I know they don't launch DOTS. We'll see what happens. But Muse and Instinct are out in front leading in those two. When you look at specific applications, legal, finance, etc., the large language models are not the leading models. They're leading in general purpose, but when you start to get specific, they're not. When you look at it on a cost, perspective i can just go off of our data if i process 500 million tokens from uh on claude about five thousand dollars if we process the same 500 million tokens on our own model and our own hardware it's 97 cheaper so what i think is going to happen but i think the fact that you and i don't agree on this actually is like maybe that's the story of like nobody really knows right is You're going to start to see the large language models say, we got to pick our battles. Where do we go and fight to win? Because just having the general purpose model is actually not going to be as valuable because of the commoditization. And so we should accelerate into specific use cases. Anthropic recently announced that they're going to go really heavy into bio and all the biotech stuff they want to go do. it feels like they think that is a massive opportunity if they can win there that is trillions of dollars of value that they can create OpenAI is saying dots and personal assistant and they've always been more of a consumer type company than an enterprise type company and so i don't think it's just like hey go all in on one specific use case but it does feel like they're now realizing that the general purpose model can serve as like a foundation but the monetization of this and the sustainable moat is going to be in the applications and This goes back to the idea of in crypto, if you go back to 2017 or so, there used to be this thing called the FAT protocol thesis. And the whole idea was like all the value accrues to the protocol layer. And I could be wrong on this, but I just continue to go back to the FAT protocol thesis. The equivalent in the AI is like the FAT model lab thesis, where all the value accrues to the model lab. What we found in crypto was there was definitely some value that accrues to the protocol, obviously Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. but actually a ton of the value accrued to either the infrastructure underlying it in terms of miners and things like that or the application layer it feels like that's the same thing happening here where as the technology gets built out we have tons of infrastructure that's making money we have tons of applications that are yet to be built but I just find it really hard if like Anthropic and OpenAI just stayed as general purpose model providers I just think that is like a cutthroat business it's like kind of a race to zero who can get the you know highest level intelligence for the cheapest cost and so like what's the moat what is the the the you know thing that defends against everybody else but i don't know maybe you think differently i do um i don't

What we found in crypto was there was definitely some value that accrues to the protocol, obviously Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.

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Audited predictions

Hit: 1 Miss: 7 Open: 1

Jordi Visser
If we get above the 200-day moving average with everything that I just said, which is up up north of 70 at this point, I do think that that's going to be the beginning of the next phase of crypto and the next phase of AI. We'll see if it happens in the second half of the year. I think it will.
Open

Deadline: 2026-12-31

Video: Everyone Gave Up On Bitcoin At Exactly The Wrong Time
Bob Loukas
in the meantime, it's possible that we get a bounce back up towards that 10 week moving average, maybe 73 or so, and then resume the trend lower
Miss

Deadline: 2026-07-04

BTC-USD high real en [2026-06-04..2026-07-04] = 67248.13 vs objetivo >= 73000.0

Video: ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd
Bob Loukas
by March, April I think we'll see a bounce back, we may get back to the 90,000 level, 95 or so
Miss

Deadline: 2026-04-30

BTC-USD high real en [2026-02-05..2026-04-30] = 79488.17 vs rango objetivo 90000.0-95000.0

Video: It's Not Different This Time
Bob Loukas
seven red candles and we're at the 50,000 level or so by the May time frame could well induce an early cycle low
Miss

Deadline: 2026-05-31

BTC-USD low real en [2026-02-05..2026-05-31] = 60074.20 vs objetivo <= 50000.0

Video: It's Not Different This Time
Jordi Visser
until we close, which I believe we will at some point soon, whether it's the beginning of next year, even the second quarter. Once we close above 92,000, three days in a row, I think we'll start heading higher again.
Miss

Deadline: 2026-01-20

Corregido manualmente (Rafa, 2026-07-12): la cita es una condicional 'once we close above 92,000, three days in a row, I think we'll start heading higher again' -- el nivel 92000 es el DISPARADOR/premisa que Visser da casi por hecho, no su prediccion real. Su pronostico real (incierto, 'I think') es la continuacion alcista posterior. El disparador SI se cumplio (BTC cerro por encima de 92000 siete dias seguidos, 13-19 ene 2026, pico 96929 el 14-ene) pero la continuacion NO ocurrio: BTC se desplomo a la zona de 62-70k a principios/mediados de febrero 2026. Evaluada la condicional como unidad (disparador + consecuencia), la prediccion en conjunto fallo -> MISS. Precio resuelto = cierre en horizon_date (20-ene-2026): ya de vuelta por debajo de 92000. Ver issue #55 para el detalle completo.

Video: From Apps to Agents: Why 2026 Is the Real AI Inflection Point
Bob Loukas
yes i do believe we're going up to 150 000 or 200 in this four year cycle
Miss

Deadline: 2022-12-31

BTC-USD high real en [2021-01-09..2022-12-31] = 68789.62 vs objetivo >= 150000.0

Video: The Next Leg - 4 Year Journey
Bob Loukas
this is what i'm concerned with this is what i'm i'm really focused on is is looking at price getting up into this 100 000 range give or take right
Miss

Deadline: 2021-12-31

BTC-USD high real en [2020-08-21..2021-12-31] = 68789.62 vs objetivo >= 100000.0

Video: The Person in the Mirror
Bob Loukas
around the April timeframe of next year's where I believe it eventually it probably probably gets a lot of resistance that $20,000 level
Hit

Deadline: 2021-04-30

BTC-USD high real en [2020-06-12..2021-04-30] = 64863.10 vs objetivo >= 20000.0

Video: Only The Strong

Directional signals

Jordi Visser
AI purest AI trade is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is energy. It has an energy component. There's a mining component. They were the first digital people to build out these centers. For everyone who wanted renewables, guess what? Bitcoin's going to help you be more renewable. Bitcoin miners give you flexible price-driven demand. They turn cheap or stranded electrons.
Video: The Real Bubble Is Coming: Why Bitcoin Is the Purest AI Macro Trade
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