Bitcoin

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Anthony Pompliano: As we think about growing the business, one of the things that I'm very proud of is today we announced that we've bought back about 20% of all outstanding stock. And so as we have done that, obviously, the stock price has reflected it. But more importantly, is every single person in this room owns more Bitcoin today than they did when we first started because we've been able to use that arbitrage. I do not believe that the value of the future of Sylvia as a company is solely dependent on does Bitcoin's price go up or not. Right. That's not really a company. That would just be like, hey, we were able to, you know, financially engineer some ownership of Bitcoin and let's just wait. What I believe is that Bitcoin could be a great asset and Bitcoin can continue to appreciate over time. But the value creation that is really going to deliver the performance that we all in this room want is going to come from can we build software that people want? Can we get users? Can we drive revenue and profit? And so it's very weird because we hold the Bitcoin. We get lots of questions about the Bitcoin, but. Bitcoin may be one of the things we spend the least amount of time on internally. We're spending all of our time on the software and going and doing that. Said another way, we want to focus on things we can control, not on the things we can't control. So going forward, now that we have this retention story that I think we feel really strongly about, now it becomes a game of there's a race going on. How much do we want to invest? And what is the ROI we need to see on that investment to feel that we're getting the return that we want, right? And so if you go and you look out in the market, if you said to me, hey, go and get 10 million users, we have the money on the balance sheet. We definitely could go do that. But it's not just about what is the headline number. We also need a very specific type of user. So one of the aspects that I think we've learned over time is that AI is very good at dealing with complexity. If you have $10 on Robinhood, Sylvia may not be that helpful to you. Because you have no financial complexity and therefore all you're thinking about is where do I put my $10? It's a pretty simple question. If you have many more assets and more complexity, now silver becomes really valuable. And so one of the great things is in America, depending on what stat you look at, there's something like 25 million multimillionaires in America. Okay, that's a lot of people. And so if you just use that as a barometer in terms of, let's say that that's who we're targeting, we know we're gonna get tons of people who have... We are not optimizing for just... Total number of users and kind of rapidly doing that. What we're looking for is we're looking to penetrate a very specific market and we should still be judged based on growth, but it should be growth of the right users. And so that's why a lot of times you'll hear me talk about the number of users with a connected account. So we don't report, this is one of the other things. I feel very strongly coming from the background I do of running these growth teams. I could manipulate data all day long and tell you that we're fucking greatest things in sliced bread. Look at how many people gave us their email or look at this crazy number, whatever. We are very intentional. We only talk about users with a connected account. That's our equivalent of like a funded account on another exchange, right? So if you sign up and you don't connect an account, you didn't sign up. Right. The whole purpose is that you connect an account. So that's the number that we always report is that number. The second thing is we talk about the total assets on the platform. And the reason we talk about that number is because there's a lot of opportunity that in the future we could chase. We're not doing it yet, but you could imagine a world where when you're putting residential real estate on the platform, well, there's a lot of companies that would love to be able to target, work with, partner with us. Folks who have certain amount of residential real estate or need a mortgage or any of these types of like financial services. And so I think about users with a connected account and I think of assets as kind of the two key things. And then the other data point that I spent a lot of time thinking about is our paying users, how many questions are they asking of Sylvia per week? Right now the number is 20 plus questions per week. So you think about that, you're like, okay, you got wealthy users who are highly engaged and are willing to pay. Those are the ingredients to build a really successful product. Now you got to go scale, right? And so as we go and we start to scale, what I think people ultimately, if I was an investor who wasn't involved in the business, what I would want to see, quarter over quarter growth of users, I'd want to see growth in assets, and then I would want to see continued growth in number of paying subscribers, right? And if those three things keep growing and they're growing at a healthy rate, future is bright. If all of a sudden there was headwind or some sort of diminishing growth, Then all of a sudden I think people would start saying, hey, what's going on here? And so you should use that as a guide as to, okay, now's the time to go and acquire users and kind of make sure they're the right cohort and they're willing to continue paying

But more importantly, is every single person in this room owns more Bitcoin today than they did when we first started because we've been able to use that arbitrage.

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Audited predictions

Hit: 1 Miss: 7 Open: 1

Jordi Visser
If we get above the 200-day moving average with everything that I just said, which is up up north of 70 at this point, I do think that that's going to be the beginning of the next phase of crypto and the next phase of AI. We'll see if it happens in the second half of the year. I think it will.
Open

Deadline: 2026-12-31

Video: Everyone Gave Up On Bitcoin At Exactly The Wrong Time
Bob Loukas
in the meantime, it's possible that we get a bounce back up towards that 10 week moving average, maybe 73 or so, and then resume the trend lower
Miss

Deadline: 2026-07-04

BTC-USD high real en [2026-06-04..2026-07-04] = 67248.13 vs objetivo >= 73000.0

Video: ThE fOur YeAr cyCle iS dEAd
Bob Loukas
by March, April I think we'll see a bounce back, we may get back to the 90,000 level, 95 or so
Miss

Deadline: 2026-04-30

BTC-USD high real en [2026-02-05..2026-04-30] = 79488.17 vs rango objetivo 90000.0-95000.0

Video: It's Not Different This Time
Bob Loukas
seven red candles and we're at the 50,000 level or so by the May time frame could well induce an early cycle low
Miss

Deadline: 2026-05-31

BTC-USD low real en [2026-02-05..2026-05-31] = 60074.20 vs objetivo <= 50000.0

Video: It's Not Different This Time
Jordi Visser
until we close, which I believe we will at some point soon, whether it's the beginning of next year, even the second quarter. Once we close above 92,000, three days in a row, I think we'll start heading higher again.
Miss

Deadline: 2026-01-20

Corregido manualmente (Rafa, 2026-07-12): la cita es una condicional 'once we close above 92,000, three days in a row, I think we'll start heading higher again' -- el nivel 92000 es el DISPARADOR/premisa que Visser da casi por hecho, no su prediccion real. Su pronostico real (incierto, 'I think') es la continuacion alcista posterior. El disparador SI se cumplio (BTC cerro por encima de 92000 siete dias seguidos, 13-19 ene 2026, pico 96929 el 14-ene) pero la continuacion NO ocurrio: BTC se desplomo a la zona de 62-70k a principios/mediados de febrero 2026. Evaluada la condicional como unidad (disparador + consecuencia), la prediccion en conjunto fallo -> MISS. Precio resuelto = cierre en horizon_date (20-ene-2026): ya de vuelta por debajo de 92000. Ver issue #55 para el detalle completo.

Video: From Apps to Agents: Why 2026 Is the Real AI Inflection Point
Bob Loukas
yes i do believe we're going up to 150 000 or 200 in this four year cycle
Miss

Deadline: 2022-12-31

BTC-USD high real en [2021-01-09..2022-12-31] = 68789.62 vs objetivo >= 150000.0

Video: The Next Leg - 4 Year Journey
Bob Loukas
this is what i'm concerned with this is what i'm i'm really focused on is is looking at price getting up into this 100 000 range give or take right
Miss

Deadline: 2021-12-31

BTC-USD high real en [2020-08-21..2021-12-31] = 68789.62 vs objetivo >= 100000.0

Video: The Person in the Mirror
Bob Loukas
around the April timeframe of next year's where I believe it eventually it probably probably gets a lot of resistance that $20,000 level
Hit

Deadline: 2021-04-30

BTC-USD high real en [2020-06-12..2021-04-30] = 64863.10 vs objetivo >= 20000.0

Video: Only The Strong

Directional signals

Jordi Visser
AI purest AI trade is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is energy. It has an energy component. There's a mining component. They were the first digital people to build out these centers. For everyone who wanted renewables, guess what? Bitcoin's going to help you be more renewable. Bitcoin miners give you flexible price-driven demand. They turn cheap or stranded electrons.
Video: The Real Bubble Is Coming: Why Bitcoin Is the Purest AI Macro Trade
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