Okay, so this week, a very famous hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio, was quoted as saying, bond yields may, and I emphasize the word may, Prick the AI bubble. So this gets a lot of attention. People send it to me and they go, what do you think? Bubble talk. Now, if this was said by, you know, Joe Smith on the corner. By me. If Joe Smith got interviewed by Bloomberg and said, I think it may prick the AI bubble, it wouldn't even, nobody would care. But because Ray Dalio said it, they care. But here's the thing. And I'll show this this weekend. Ray Dalio, if you just go into any LLM and say, how often has Ray Dalio said there's a bubble over the last 15 years? It's a lot. And it's not to say that he's not a smart guy. What it is to say is he has now made a career, his like post hedge fund career. He's writing books about the history of the world. he's a very smart guy in understanding the history of the world so he's saying we're going to end up in the exact same thing that we've had and maybe we will maybe they'll maybe something will go on but i think he has a um a thesis that he has to stick by and this is he's just going to keep doing it and so before it was a bubble on something else and as i sent you something and i'm going to show this weekend if there was truly a bubble i think if we had a pandemic the whole market would collapse Oh, check. We already had that. It didn't do that. We were back at new all-time highs and up for the year. Okay, well, if the Fed did the fastest rate hike in the history of the United States in an unexpected manner, we would certainly blow up this bubble of $40 trillion in debt and the whole world would collapse. We had that one. Didn't do it. Inflation hit almost 10%. Didn't do it. Okay, maybe after they were done, though, we'd see the... The After Effects, and we'd have the biggest, fastest bank run in the history of the country. Oh, check, we had that with Silicon Valley Bank, plus all the little banks that fell too. We had deposits flowing out, and guess what? New all-time highs. Maybe if we decided to go back to Smoot-Hawley and we announced massive tariffs around the globe, that would do it. Okay, we fell 20%, and then we rallied back to new all-time highs. Finally. This one there's no way you can stop because those were all kind of easy ones for the Fed to print money out of so you could think that they were going to print money. What about if we shut down the Strait of Hormuz? Oil would go to 200, 300, 400, 500 and we would, well, we had that this year, can't print money and yet somehow or another the market found a way to go higher. So now the new one is rates are going to do it. So I think people have to just understand the way markets work. We've had new all-time highs many many times during my career and there's been many many bad things that have happened and there may be another 20 30 percent correction next year and it might be because rates get to such a high level that we end up with I don't know a Bunch of businesses that we didn't know had a lot of debt in Europe in wherever that end up collapsing. I don't know but i also know that if that happens the governments have financialized everything so they will come in just like they did after silicon valley bank and make sure that they put money into the system to make it not go down a pandemic took trillions and they did that i don't know what other people want to do so i think when you listen to these bubble talks particularly when it comes to ai the way to navigate watch my video i am showing facts about the demand versus supply i am going to show why ray dalio's Conversation, although maybe true, it's just the headline that he's put out there. The alpha, which names are working? I'm literally going to go through and say, okay, almost nothing has worked. Nothing. Over the course of the last decade, very few companies have made money. If you go back to ChatGPT, only 24% of the companies in the S&P 1500, so 1500 companies, only 25% have produced a return greater than the index as a whole. 25%. So it's very concentrated. Guess what? We've been concentrated for a long time with the Mag7. If you're trying to make money, you need to know the things that are working. The only thing that I think you can make money on with the highest probability of certainty is things related to building out the compute because we don't have enough of it and we're going to continue to build it out. On the other side, I think you need crypto. So the alpha I'm trying to give. And then finally, the best way to feel empowered is to learn how to use AI. If that's what's causing the problems, And that's where the biggest fear is. If you want to make sure that you know more than Ray Dalio, trust me, he doesn't sit on an LLM all day. So go build something, upload it to GitHub. You have something over Ray Dalio that he doesn't know about today's world. So the agency side, the empowering side is very important too.
Oil would go to 200, 300, 400, 500 and we would, well, we had that this year, can't print money and yet somehow or another the market found a way to go higher.