Jordi Visser / VisserLabs

2026 Outlook: The AI → Physical World Inflection — Jordi Visser (4 enero 2026)

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AIMacroMarketsTrading
45:19 min youtube 2026 Week 1 🇬🇧 EN

TL;DR

  • Global Reflation & Productivity Boom: Q3 real GDP hit a surprising 4.3%, driven by applied intelligence (AI), signaling an early-cycle global reflationary boom supported by commodity strength and high CapEx.
  • Regime Shift & AI Inflection: The market is entering a regime where gold and equities rise together (a rare occurrence), fueled by the massive, Manhattan Project-scale buildout of AI infrastructure (embodied AI, edge devices).
  • Critical Risks & Mandate: While the Market Immune System shows room to run, risks include geopolitical instability in Taiwan and societal backlash. The mandate is to use AI not for answers, but for improving decision-making through systems thinking.

Summary

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgSxccU0uWk  |  Duration: 45 min

â—† GDP Surprise & Productivity Boom

Q3 real GDP came in at a surprising 4.3%, following 3.8% in Q2, leading to nominal GDP reaching its highest level since 2023. This two-quarter period of high growth is historically rare and structurally similar to the 2003-2004 post-dotcom recovery. A critical detail is that this significant economic expansion occurred with zero job creation during both quarters.

Despite market volatility, gold had a very strong year while Bitcoin finished down 6%. The Fed still has rate cuts planned due to the current job and inflation picture, which remains constrained by low gas prices. Furthermore, productivity growth is expected to accelerate rapidly, with projections suggesting double-digit economic growth driven by applied intelligence within the next few years.

â–¶ Reflation Indicators

Global economic indicators like rising copper prices, strong MSCI World ex-US market performance, surging Asian exports (Korea/Taiwan), and high capital goods orders implying PMIs near 60 point toward a global reflationary boom rather than a recession. This growth is supported by a productivity boom where nominal GDP is increasing without corresponding hiring activity.

The primary theme for the coming year is connecting artificial intelligence into the physical world through embodied AI, edge devices, and massive data center buildouts. These trends are expected to drive PMIs higher and initiate a mega-trend fueled by commodity strength. Market analysis shows gold rising concurrently with cyclical strength, improving market breadth, strong junk bonds, and new equity highs. The speaker emphasizes that AI is accelerating the ability to analyze complex financial charts and identify multi-decade trend breaks.

★ Regime Identification

The speaker identifies the market as an early-cycle global reflation regime characterized by rising financials, accelerating nominal GDP, and commodity super cycles. In this environment, gold and equities are expected to rise together, unlike a recessionary phase.

  • Bitcoin is predicted to be one of the strongest assets because it thrives in weaker dollar conditions and when real assets outperform.
  • The increasing outperformance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin signals that crypto network effects are successfully kicking in across the ecosystem.
  • Macro trends support strong bullish bets on commodities like copper and gold due to AI buildout, alongside major growth in chemicals driven by advanced packaging needs.

Despite recent technical weakness, positive liquidity suggests a violent upward snapback is anticipated for key assets.

â–º Bitcoin Setup & Sector Themes

Despite sentiment at lows and 67 days below the 50-day MA, liquidity is positive and Bitcoin historically thrives in weaker dollar + rising PMI environments. Ethereum outperforming signals network effects kicking in.

⚠️ Critical Risk Alert: The massive AI bubble presents the biggest risk to market stability in 2026, noting that nearly all current economic growth and CapEx is driven by AI. Societal backlash, particularly starting with midterm elections, poses another risk that could restrict the AI buildout.

Healthcare and biotech are expected to replace some tech sectors this year as AI drives drug discovery, while Tesla represents a major robotics theme tied to PMI trends.

â—† Multi-Decade Breakouts & Geopolitical Risks

Market risk assessments for 2026 highlight concerns such as power generation constraints and the potential failure of the metaverse moment to materialize fully. A major focus is on Taiwan geopolitical risk, which carries the largest tail probability among identified threats.

Ticker / Company Role Thesis
Citigroup Financials Breaking out from a 16-year base.
Freeport-McMoRan Commodities/Mining Part of multi-decade commodity bases awakening.
Exxon Energy Part of multi-decade commodity bases awakening.
DuPont (chemicals) Chemicals Growth driven by advanced packaging needs.
Mining Stocks Commodities Beneficiaries of AI buildout and reflation.
Delta Airlines Travel/Cyclical Breaking out or setting up.
Eli Lilly Healthcare/Biotech Beneficiary of AI-driven drug discovery.
Tesla Robotics/AI Major robotics theme tied to PMI trends.

★ AI Bubble Concerns vs. Reality

The speaker emphasizes the importance of systems thinking to analyze second and third-order effects in technology and investing. The industry is transitioning away from traditional software models toward data pipelines and proprietary datasets, though agent ecosystems are still maturing.

Key Distinction: Tech CapEx is described as Manhattan Project-scale, but balance sheets are strong and free cash flow is solid. The real risk isn't valuation—it's whether revenues materialize in 2025-2026.

â–º Market Immune System & Turbulence Model

The speaker developed a covariance-based Market Immune System designed to track market turbulence across 99 diverse assets including stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto. This model serves as an early warning system, detecting changes in correlations and volatility before major index movements occur.

The current investment focus should be on agentic and autonomous AI systems, as large tech platforms are shifting competition from model quality to controlling the execution layer of AI-powered work. This shift requires enterprises to move toward on-premise, hardware-driven solutions, making reflation a theme that favors hardware over software names.

✅ Market Status Check: The covariance-based Market Immune System is currently not flashing red, which suggests that the ongoing market rally still has room to grow.

â—† Andre Karpathy Wake-Up Call & AI Collaboration Mandate

The observation from Andrej Karpathy—"I've never felt this much behind as a programmer"—signals that AI agents and enterprise adoption are about to surge, driving hyperscaler revenues and forcing job redesign across all sectors.

AI requires dedicated effort and should be approached as a complex system. The speaker emphasizes that AI must function as a collaborator helping users make better probabilistic bets, rather than an oracle providing definitive answers. Effective use involves sophisticated prompting methods, such as "Socrates mode," which encourages dialogue and critical thinking.

âš¡ Final Mandate

  • The productivity leap is real, but requires daily habit-building with AI tools.
  • Do not seek simple answers from the technology. Instead, leverage AI to improve your ability to make better probabilistic decisions through systems thinking and dialogue.
  • Successful integration means using AI as a partner for complex decision-making rather than just an information retrieval tool.

â—† Search for the alpha

The core thesis driving this outlook is a structural transition from purely digital growth to physical, AI-driven industrial expansion—the "AI $\rightarrow$ Physical World Inflection." Capital allocation should favor assets benefiting from massive CapEx in data centers and embodied AI, positioning the market firmly within an early-cycle global reflationary regime where commodities and cyclicals rise alongside equities.

  • Regime Shift: The current environment is identified as early-cycle global reflation (supported by rising copper, strong ex-US markets, and high capital goods orders), justifying a bullish stance on cyclical assets and raw materials over recession fears.
  • Capital Rotation Focus: Investment focus is shifting away from traditional pure software models toward hardware enablement, advanced packaging, and industrial themes driven by AI buildout (e.g., favoring hardware solutions for enterprise adoption).
  • Commodity & Cyclical Strength: Strong bullish bets are warranted on commodities (copper, gold) alongside financials breaking out and multi-decade commodity bases awakening.
  • Thematic Breakouts: Specific sectors showing early-cycle strength include mining stocks, chemicals (DuPont), energy (Exxon), and financial institutions (Citigroup).
  • Crypto Positioning: Bitcoin is positioned as a strong asset due to its historical performance in weaker dollar conditions and rising PMI environments, while Ethereum's outperformance signals successful network effect adoption.
Asset Signal Reading
Citigroup Multi-decade breakout 16-year base
Freeport-McMoRan / Mining Stocks Commodity Super Cycle Strong bullish bet
Exxon / DuPont (Chemicals) Reflation/Industrial Growth Breakout setup
Delta Airlines Cyclical Strength Breakout setup
Eli Lilly / Tesla Thematic Drivers Robotics/Healthcare AI adoption
The twist: The guest is implicitly arguing that the massive AI boom is not just a valuation risk, but a fundamental economic force driving physical CapEx. This means investors must look past pure tech valuations and focus on the industrial and hardware infrastructure required to execute AI in the real world (embodied AI), which is where the next wave of alpha lies.

â–º Chapter Summaries

GDP surprise & productivity boom: Q3 real GDP came in at 4.3%, following 3.8% in Q2—with zero job creation during both quarters. This is structurally similar to 2003-2004 post-dotcom recovery, not a bubble setup. (0:00)

Q3 real GDP came in at a surprising 4.3%, following 3.8% in Q2, leading to nominal GDP reaching its highest level since 2023. This two-quarter period of high growth is historically rare and structurally similar to the 2003-2004 post-dotcom recovery. A critical detail is that this significant economic expansion occurred with zero job creation during both quarters. Despite market volatility, gold had a very strong year while Bitcoin finished down 6%. The Fed still has rate cuts planned due to the current job and inflation picture, which remains constrained by low gas prices. Furthermore, productivity growth is expected to accelerate rapidly, with projections suggesting double-digit economic growth driven by applied intelligence within the next few years.

Reflation indicators: Copper rising, MSCI World ex-US closing at highs, dollar in downtrend, Korea/Taiwan exports surging, capital goods orders implying PMIs near 60—all pointing to global reflation, not recession. (7:03)

Global economic indicators like rising copper prices, strong ex-US market performance, surging Asian exports, and high capital goods orders point toward a global reflationary boom rather than a recession. This growth is supported by a productivity boom where nominal GDP is increasing without corresponding hiring activity. The primary theme for the coming year is connecting artificial intelligence into the physical world through embodied AI, edge devices, and massive data center buildouts. These trends are expected to drive PMIs higher and initiate a mega-trend fueled by commodity strength. Market analysis shows gold rising concurrently with cyclical strength, improving market breadth, strong junk bonds, and new equity highs. The speaker emphasizes that AI is accelerating the ability to analyze complex financial charts and identify multi-decade trend breaks.

Regime identification: Financials breaking out, multi-decade commodity bases awakening, gold rising alongside equities—this is early-cycle reflation where tech and commodities rise together (only happened twice in 60 years). (13:17)

The speaker identifies the market as an early-cycle global reflation regime characterized by rising financials, accelerating nominal GDP, and commodity super cycles. In this environment, gold and equities are expected to rise together, unlike a recessionary phase. Bitcoin is predicted to be one of the strongest assets because it thrives in weaker dollar conditions and when real assets outperform. The increasing outperformance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin signals that crypto network effects are successfully kicking in across the ecosystem. Macro trends support strong bullish bets on commodities like copper and gold due to AI buildout, alongside major growth in chemicals driven by advanced packaging needs. Despite recent technical weakness, positive liquidity suggests a violent upward snapback is anticipated for key assets.

Bitcoin setup: Despite sentiment at lows and 67 days below the 50-day MA, liquidity is positive and Bitcoin historically thrives in weaker dollar + rising PMI environments. Ethereum outperforming signals network effects kicking in. (22:29)

Healthcare and biotech are expected to replace some tech sectors this year as AI drives drug discovery, while Tesla represents a major robotics theme tied to PMI trends. The speaker warns that the massive AI bubble presents the biggest risk to market stability in 2026, noting that nearly all current economic growth and CapEx is driven by AI. This rapid technological shift acts as a deflationary and job-replacing force, which influences Federal Reserve policy. While tech CapEx is comparable to historical projects like Apollo, valuation concerns exist despite strong cash flow metrics for AI companies. Societal backlash, particularly starting with midterm elections, poses another risk that could restrict the AI buildout. Ultimately, the improvements in AI are moving so rapidly that they are fundamentally changing daily life and industry operations.

Multi-decade breakouts: John Roque charts showing Citigroup (16-year base), Freeport-McMoRan, Exxon, DuPont (chemicals), mining stocks, Delta Airlines, Eli Lilly, Tesla—all breaking out or setting up. (27:06)

Market risk assessments for 2026 highlight concerns such as power generation constraints and the potential failure of the metaverse moment to materialize fully. A major focus is on Taiwan geopolitical risk, which carries the largest tail probability among identified threats. The transcript emphasizes a pivotal shift in software engineering, citing Andrej Karpathy's observation that AI tools are transforming programming at an unprecedented speed. This rapid evolution serves as a critical wake-up call for all workers to urgently upskill and integrate AI into their daily routines. Economically, the surge in enterprise adoption of multi-agent systems is expected to drive massive revenue increases for hyperscalers and model producers. This shift represents a fundamental inflection point changing what it means to be a programmer and worker.

AI bubble concerns vs. reality: Tech capex is Manhattan Project-scale, but balance sheets are strong, free cash flow solid. The real risk isn't valuation—it's whether revenues materialize in 2025-2026. (32:04)

The speaker emphasizes the importance of systems thinking to analyze second and third-order effects in technology and investing. The industry is transitioning away from traditional software models toward data pipelines and proprietary datasets, though agent ecosystems are still maturing. Investment focus is shifting beyond Nvidia to themes like advanced packaging, identifying a list of associated companies. The analysis uses a comprehensive framework that combines thematic ideas with equity research. This methodology employs an algorithm to track management optimism and analyst revisions related to AI demand across various sectors. The goal is to provide institutional clients and asset managers with detailed insights into these evolving technological trends.

Market immune system & turbulence model: Built a covariance-based early warning system tracking 99 assets across stocks, bonds, commodities, crypto—currently not flashing red, suggesting the rally has room. (36:31)

The current investment focus should be on agentic and autonomous AI systems, as large tech platforms are shifting competition from model quality to controlling the execution layer of AI-powered work. This shift requires enterprises to move toward on-premise, hardware-driven solutions, making reflation a theme that favors hardware over software names. The speaker developed a covariance-based Market Immune System designed to track market turbulence across 99 diverse assets including stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto. This model serves as an early warning system, detecting changes in correlations and volatility before major index movements occur. Historically, the system has provided warnings days ahead of corrections when the S&P is trending higher. Currently, the Market Immune System is not flashing red, which suggests that the ongoing market rally still has room to grow.

Andre Karpathy wake-up call: "I've never felt this much behind as a programmer"—signals that AI agents and enterprise adoption are about to surge, driving hyperscaler revenues and forcing job redesign across all sectors. (40:20)

AI requires dedicated effort and should be approached as a complex system, similar to investing in personal health like HRV. The speaker emphasizes that AI must function as a collaborator helping users make better probabilistic bets, rather than an oracle providing definitive answers. Effective use involves sophisticated prompting methods, such as "Socrates mode," which encourages dialogue and critical thinking. This collaborative habit applies across all aspects of life, including career development, travel planning, and investing. The goal is not simply to be right but to consistently improve decision-making through intelligent interaction with AI systems. By adopting this mindset, individuals can become significantly more powerful in their personal and professional lives.

End) AI collaboration mandate: The productivity leap is real, but requires daily habit-building with AI tools. This isn't about answers—it's about making better probabilistic decisions through systems thinking and dialogue. (45:14)

The chapter concludes by establishing an AI collaboration mandate for navigating future changes. It asserts that while a massive productivity leap driven by AI is real, achieving it requires consistent daily habit-building with these tools. The focus should not be on obtaining simple answers from the technology. Instead, users must leverage AI to improve their ability to make better probabilistic decisions. This advanced skill set involves applying systems thinking and engaging in deep dialogue with the AI system. Ultimately, successful integration means using AI as a partner for complex decision-making rather than just an information retrieval tool.

Generated with algorithm v1-chunked · model google/gemma-4-e4b · 2026-01-04T11:00:00Z

Transcript

[0:00] for uh
[0:01] another year.
[0:05] Quite ending of the year, as always, but
[0:08] uh there was a lot of stuff that
[0:09] actually happened in the last uh couple
[0:11] weeks in the AI space uh both on the
[0:14] news front in terms of posts and X, and
[0:17] also uh
[0:19] some deals that were done. So,
[0:21] I'll go through all of that, as well as
[0:23] just kind of go through a wrap-up, go
[0:25] through some of the themes for this
[0:26] year, and I'll finish up with uh
[0:29] basically uh a recognition
[0:32] from my front in terms of where we are
[0:35] with AI. I think the progress that has
[0:38] been
[0:39] made in the last 3 months in terms of
[0:41] making it something that you can no
[0:43] longer wait for
[0:45] uh based on how much you can do with it.
[0:48] Uh and more importantly, I think for,
[0:50] you know, people my age,
[0:52] with your kids, uh I think it's a
[0:54] necessity to uh
[0:57] get them more involved, especially since
[0:59] the school system doesn't seem to
[1:00] know how to do uh deal with it yet. So,
[1:03] I'll go through all of that, and uh
[1:06] hopefully leave you guys with a lot to
[1:07] think about on multiple fronts. First of
[1:08] all, S&P finished the year so with all
[1:11] the bubble talk,
[1:13] basically, we ended up about the same as
[1:15] we did in 2020 in the COVID year, but
[1:18] you can see this was not some kind of
[1:20] freakish year. We finished up uh 16% in
[1:23] terms of price returns before dividends.
[1:25] For the NDX,
[1:27] the you know, the beta part of the
[1:30] market, it was uh
[1:32] the worst positive year we've seen uh
[1:36] over the last 7 years. So, uh definitely
[1:39] not showing uh bubble land. Uh Russell,
[1:44] minor positive, you know, 11%, nothing
[1:47] big. I expect bigger performance next
[1:49] year. The headline story was gold. Gold
[1:51] had its biggest performance since 1979,
[1:55] uh and not by a little bit. It was a a
[1:58] very, very, very good year for gold,
[2:00] especially vol adjusted.
[2:03] Bitcoin, uh
[2:05] sent the way sentiment ended, you'd
[2:06] think it was a crash, but after
[2:08] back-to-back 100-plus or 125% plus
[2:12] years,
[2:13] uh it finished down 6%.
[2:16] Everyone hates it now, sentiment is low,
[2:18] technicians hate it. I love it. Um I
[2:21] loved it last year, so take it for what
[2:23] it's worth. Uh but, I'll go through a
[2:25] lot of the the reasons why, at least
[2:27] from a a tactical basis. Forget the
[2:30] long-term story where I believe people
[2:33] are just not putting into context what's
[2:35] happening with the financial guardrails
[2:37] and the disruption from AI, but let's
[2:39] just focus on the tactical side.
[2:41] Sentiment ended up at the highest level
[2:43] of the year in terms of the AAII net, so
[2:46] it's no longer a
[2:47] situation where
[2:49] the market is negative, where we had
[2:52] been the entire year. Uh basically, if
[2:54] you look at the zero line, we spent most
[2:56] of the year below. If you take an
[2:57] average, it was one of the worst years.
[2:59] It was definitely the worst year
[3:01] adjusted for the fact that we were up.
[3:03] Uh I'm treating this as coming out,
[3:05] believe it or not, of a recession year,
[3:07] where the cyclical upswing is coming.
[3:10] Uh we'll we'll get more into that as we
[3:11] go on. I think the big news for the end
[3:14] and something that uh you know, you may
[3:16] not have seen, but GDP came out
[3:20] uh for Q3, and the
[3:24] result was 4.3%.
[3:27] Here it is out here. Only one economist
[3:30] uh basically was even close. Uh so, you
[3:34] had a very, very big move, and I think
[3:37] more importantly,
[3:38] this 4.3 comes after a 3.8.
[3:42] So, what I wanted to do in seeing that
[3:44] real GDP coming in that high, basically
[3:47] 4% over a two-quarter average, nominal
[3:51] GDP went back to the highest level since
[3:53] '23. And again, this is
[3:57] when inflation was on the higher end.
[3:59] So, we had nominal GDP go up, but
[4:01] inflation in Q3 was not uh accelerating.
[4:05] And so, basically, what I did is I went
[4:07] into Gemini and asked it to go find out
[4:10] how many times in history we've had
[4:11] back-to-back
[4:13] uh
[4:15] quarters of at least 3.8%
[4:18] since uh I guess this century. So, one
[4:21] of them, obviously, the COVID rebound,
[4:24] where we had a bunch of big numbers.
[4:25] Then, you had the mid-cycle boost in
[4:27] 2014.
[4:29] And before that, you got to go all the
[4:30] way back to the beginning of '03-'04
[4:32] coming out of the dot-com bubble, and
[4:34] then you had the pre-dot-com bubble. So,
[4:38] the most likely period, or the one that
[4:41] ChatGPT or Gemini gave us as the most
[4:43] likely period, uh it's most structurally
[4:45] similar to 203 uh 2003 to 2004. I'll go
[4:49] through the reasons why as we go through
[4:51] this, but one of the things that's
[4:53] unique
[4:54] uh about this is the fact that we just
[4:57] did this two-quarter run with no job
[5:00] creation.
[5:02] So, I want you to put that in a context.
[5:04] We grew 4% a quarter, which has really
[5:07] only happened uh three times this
[5:09] century,
[5:11] and we had zero job creation during the
[5:14] two quarters. So, if you're looking for
[5:16] something in there that
[5:18] tells you this time is different, and as
[5:20] investors and as macro people, you have
[5:22] to spend the time understanding how to
[5:25] put this into context and what it means.
[5:27] And there are not many times in history
[5:30] where you can find no job creation at
[5:32] the same time as nominal GDP coming in
[5:34] at an annualized 8% in the quarter, real
[5:37] GDP over two quarters coming in at 4%.
[5:39] So,
[5:40] uh you got that, and then you also have
[5:42] the fact that we've got for next year
[5:44] still two rate cuts
[5:47] built in. So, the Fed is still going to
[5:48] be cutting rates because of the job
[5:50] picture,
[5:52] but also because of the inflation
[5:53] picture, and gas at the pump is now down
[5:55] to 283, the lowest level since 2020. And
[5:58] basically, we're right in where we were
[6:00] from 2018 to 2020 in terms of the
[6:03] midpoint of the range. Without gas at
[6:05] the pump going higher, it's going to be
[6:07] really hard for the Fed to be raising
[6:09] rates, and anyone who's worried about
[6:10] inflation, I think should just
[6:13] sit there and say that we are probably
[6:15] going to have a reflationary boom, where
[6:17] inflation will be sticky,
[6:19] uh but if we're not going to see a
[6:21] change in the payroll numbers, then I
[6:22] don't see how they're going to get
[6:23] better with AI uh and AI agents coming
[6:26] in front of us. So, we'll talk more
[6:27] about that. Productivity, uh Dennis and
[6:30] the team at 22V basically highlighted
[6:32] well, we're starting to get more and
[6:35] more of the productivity conversation,
[6:37] and I think this is going to accelerate
[6:39] now. Marc Andreessen started to uh talk
[6:42] about it in the fact that we got 4.3,
[6:45] Elon Musk, double-digit growth is coming
[6:47] within 12 to 18 months.
[6:50] If applied intelligence is proxy for
[6:52] economic growth, which it should be,
[6:54] triple-digit is possible in 5 years.
[6:57] I just want you to take into context
[6:59] this whole double-digit growth and
[7:00] what's going on, even though I don't
[7:03] think that is coming, I do think the
[7:06] period you're looking at here with the
[7:08] ability of replacing labor or not hiring
[7:11] people as top-line
[7:14] revenue. In this case, nominal GDP grew
[7:17] 8% in the quarter.
[7:20] And yet, we have no hiring going on.
[7:24] So, think about that in terms of the
[7:25] productivity boom. If this compounds,
[7:28] then you can theoretically get to
[7:30] numbers that
[7:32] are insane. So, just keep it in the back
[7:34] of your mind, because it's not a joke.
[7:36] Uh copper moving higher. So, for anyone
[7:39] questioning whether where we are in a
[7:41] reflationary boom,
[7:43] copper
[7:44] accelerating into the end of the year.
[7:46] MSCI World ex the US, which is my proxy
[7:50] for global liquidity and kind of a
[7:53] global boom,
[7:54] closing on the highs of the year.
[7:57] The dollar, after, you know, a bounce
[7:59] from what were, you know, a very weak
[8:01] beginning part of the year, is in
[8:03] downtrend again,
[8:05] posting its worst year since 2017
[8:08] with Fed cuts coming. The yield curve
[8:10] steepening, all of these on suggesting
[8:13] the same thing. The Kospi,
[8:15] closing. Doctor Kospi, Doctor Copper,
[8:17] you've got everything kind of moving
[8:19] higher. In Korea, export growth posted
[8:23] back-to-back big quarter or big months
[8:26] to finish out the uh uh
[8:28] or sorry, quarters to finish out the
[8:30] year.
[8:32] And to show you the importance of South
[8:34] Korea from an export, this is
[8:35] year-over-year exports, the white line.
[8:37] This is the US PMI.
[8:40] We're going higher in terms of all of
[8:42] these fronts. You also had Taiwan
[8:45] exports, which again, another proxy for
[8:47] PMIs, blowing out to the upside.
[8:51] Capital goods, we got the durable latest
[8:53] durable goods report. Capital goods new
[8:55] orders, non-defense ex defen- ex air.
[9:01] At levels historically equivalent with
[9:04] close to 60 PMIs, we just continue to
[9:06] march higher. The diffusion index, this
[9:09] is from MacroMicro. I thought this was a
[9:11] good chart, just highlighting the global
[9:14] PMI diffusion. So again, diffusion's a
[9:17] diffusion on top of a diffusion. So,
[9:19] think of this again as a second
[9:20] derivative.
[9:21] Again, implying higher levels. This is
[9:24] using it verse
[9:25] global monetary policy. I've shown
[9:28] charts like this before. We are doing
[9:29] rate cuts. And so, not a surprise if
[9:32] you've watched my videos, uh next year
[9:34] to me, the number one theme
[9:37] is connecting AI into the physical
[9:39] world. So, my outlook paper for this
[9:42] year, long one with a lot of the themes
[9:45] that I think are going to be important
[9:46] to support PMIs not only going higher
[9:49] this year, but the beginning of a mega a
[9:51] mega trend
[9:53] on the back of commodity strength, on
[9:55] the back of enterprise using edge
[9:56] devices, edge device upgrades for cars,
[9:59] auto or cars, phones, computers, uh the
[10:03] MPUs that are going to be necessary for
[10:06] the embodied AI, humanoids coming behind
[10:09] it, the data center build out, the bring
[10:11] your own generation BYOG power trend
[10:14] that is in place. All of this stuff fits
[10:17] into the physical world. I'll be putting
[10:18] this out 22V. If you guys haven't
[10:21] reached out to 22V, get signed up.
[10:23] There's a lot of things I'll show at the
[10:24] end in terms of what I'm going to be
[10:25] doing on top of just the written work
[10:28] now, but giving you specific names in
[10:30] the space.
[10:32] Uh
[10:33] the thematic ideas within there, some of
[10:35] the ones I mentioned, but you get the
[10:36] picture. So, for all of these,
[10:39] including the BYOG side, uh which is
[10:42] becoming a bigger and bigger theme,
[10:44] solving most of the power problems, uh I
[10:47] think it's an important thing to get up
[10:49] to speed on. Colossus 2 is going to be
[10:51] uh up and running completely. There's
[10:53] more work going on on building out
[10:55] Colossus to get it to its eventual
[10:57] ending of a million GPU cluster.
[10:59] All of this stuff is going to be
[11:01] important. Uh one podcast to reference
[11:04] for this week, I did listen to Facts
[11:06] versus Feelings. I do from time to time.
[11:08] The reason I cared about this one were
[11:09] twofold. One is just wasn't a lot of
[11:12] podcasts out the last couple weeks of
[11:13] the year, but uh
[11:15] >> [snorts]
[11:15] >> Ryan Detrick did have on two
[11:16] technicians, uh and I thought they did a
[11:19] good job. I like technicians at the end
[11:21] of the year cuz I like to look for
[11:23] charts that are pointing a direction and
[11:25] then try to figure out what it means
[11:27] together. That has gotten a lot easier
[11:30] with artificial intelligence. Uh my
[11:32] number one thinking partner on this
[11:34] stuff, which again, I'll show you at the
[11:35] end. Uh this is going to be a big year
[11:37] for teaching whoever wants to learn how
[11:39] to be able to do this stuff I do, but
[11:41] also, I don't think you have time to
[11:42] wait anymore because I think we've
[11:44] reached a point where the capabilities
[11:46] of artificial intelligence have
[11:48] compounded at such a fast pace now that
[11:50] when I show you what I've been able to
[11:52] build in a matter of of hours uh on
[11:55] things that I had team of data
[11:57] scientists that were never able to
[11:59] finish for me, not because they weren't
[12:01] capable, but because of how difficult it
[12:02] was for me to give what my brain wanted
[12:05] and get them to be able to do it. That
[12:08] merging together of thought
[12:10] collaboration is what has happened with
[12:13] AI, which allows you to do this stuff
[12:14] and kind of get your answer, go back,
[12:16] get your answer, go back. So, with the
[12:18] podcast, what I did is I just said,
[12:20] "Take all of the charts that these two
[12:21] technicians talked about and let's break
[12:24] them down in terms of what went on." So,
[12:26] they talked about financials.
[12:28] Talked about long decade sideways
[12:30] assets. I've shown some stuff from John
[12:32] Roque. I'll go through a bunch of charts
[12:34] same way. These long-term bases we are
[12:36] breaking out of. This is the PMI side.
[12:39] Uh a lot of these long-term bases are
[12:40] even longer. They're commodity stuff
[12:42] going back. That's the hardware versus
[12:44] software. You have hardware versus
[12:46] software, all of those multi-decade
[12:49] decade sideways things, which really
[12:51] haven't worked since 2003 to 2004. Uh I
[12:55] think you're in the beginning stages of
[12:57] it. They talk about gold, what it means,
[12:59] especially when it's happening with
[13:00] stocks going higher. And they highlight
[13:03] another fact, which is the market
[13:04] breadth. So, when you take all of those
[13:06] together
[13:07] and you go look at gold having rising at
[13:09] the same time as cyclical strength, with
[13:11] breadth improving, with junk bonds
[13:13] strong,
[13:14] equities making new highs, these are the
[13:17] only time periods that you found where
[13:19] you could have gold going up alongside
[13:21] of risk-on assets, but in particular
[13:24] with inflationary type or reflationary
[13:27] assets, reflationary, not recessionary,
[13:29] global growth boom. So, these are the
[13:31] periods that's bringing up. Same thing
[13:33] he shows for the breadth. And again,
[13:37] usually
[13:38] another 12 to 24 months using history,
[13:41] even though they only have a couple of
[13:42] them. So, what regime are we most likely
[13:45] in?
[13:46] Well, financials breaking out, early
[13:48] cycle reflation theme, multi-decade
[13:50] sideways poised to break out, commodity
[13:51] super cycle beginnings.
[13:53] Global nominal GDP accelerates faster
[13:55] than expected. Real assets dramatically
[13:57] outperform financial lot. This is never
[13:59] a rechet recessionary regime. It is a
[14:02] global reflation regime.
[14:05] So, then you go through, what does it
[14:07] normally mean? And again, I just showed
[14:09] you, copper's going higher, nominal GDPs
[14:11] accelerating, equities are going higher,
[14:14] gold's going higher, financial
[14:16] conditions are easing. We've got the Fed
[14:17] cutting rates, the dollar is weakening.
[14:21] This is all part of what normally goes
[14:23] on during it, what we would expect in
[14:25] this. Inflation stabilizes, but remains
[14:28] above the pre-AI error.
[14:30] This is not late cycle stagflation. And
[14:33] again, I've talked about this. The
[14:34] amount of times I've heard stagflation.
[14:36] All of these things have kept people out
[14:37] of the market. Bubbles kept people out
[14:39] of the market. A full-scale reflationary
[14:41] expansion where tech and commodities
[14:43] rise together. This has only happened
[14:44] twice in 60 years, and both were
[14:46] extremely profitable multi-year cycles.
[14:49] Climb the wall of worry.
[14:52] So, Bitcoin had a horrible relative year
[14:54] and had a bad year overall. How does
[14:56] Bitcoin or how should it perform in this
[14:58] regime? AI-driven global reflation,
[15:00] commodity breakouts, financial
[15:02] strengthening, breadth expansion, and a
[15:03] weaker dollar, Bitcoin should be one of
[15:05] the strongest performing major assets in
[15:06] the world. I will say it will be the
[15:08] strongest. Thought the same thing last
[15:10] year. So, again,
[15:12] this is not advice. I'm putting my money
[15:14] where my mouth is, but I pretty much
[15:16] always do with Bitcoin because of my
[15:18] long-term view. The regime aligns almost
[15:20] perfectly with Bitcoin's historical
[15:21] environments.
[15:23] It loves a weaker dollar, steeper yield
[15:25] curve, it thrives when real assets
[15:26] outperform.
[15:28] Here is it versus PMIs. I've talked
[15:31] about this. When PMIs are rising, you
[15:33] get the best time of Bitcoin. Doesn't
[15:35] matter if it's a minor cycle or a bigger
[15:37] cycle. Anything going on, it is
[15:39] typically very sensitive to PMIs and
[15:42] altcoins,
[15:44] or let's just use higher beta
[15:46] uh crypto, and let's just take Ethereum,
[15:49] as I'll get into in a little bit, uh as
[15:51] another part. So, this is the perfect
[15:53] conditions for S-curve adoption. This is
[15:55] something critical. I've talked about
[15:57] this as my network effects. AI adoption
[15:59] and decentralization equal the Bitcoin
[16:01] narrative strengthening. Tokenization
[16:03] and real-world assets, a big theme for
[16:04] next year. More on-chain liquidity, more
[16:07] money inside
[16:09] the crypto world, the digital economy,
[16:11] good for Bitcoin. Institutional adoption
[16:12] is now structurally embedded, ETFs and
[16:14] custody rails. All of this stuff is the
[16:16] technology side of it. Should be one of
[16:18] the best performing assets.
[16:22] And again, reminder, this is after it
[16:25] had a quiet year. But again, if you take
[16:26] the three-year performance,
[16:29] nothing has beaten it.
[16:30] So, just use it for what it is. I still
[16:34] believe this is what went on last year.
[16:35] We continued into the end of the year to
[16:37] see OGs selling. This to me was just a
[16:41] representation again
[16:43] of what makes sense. Ideologically, the
[16:45] people that were early and went into it,
[16:47] you've got the government more involved
[16:48] in sponsoring it. You've got ETFs. This
[16:51] is not the true decentralized
[16:53] ideological breakaway from the fiat
[16:55] system. So, you've got those people
[16:57] bailing out at the same time,
[17:00] there's a new sheriff in town in terms
[17:02] of where you can find a five-bagger or a
[17:04] 10-bagger, and Bitcoin's not in the same
[17:06] class, clearly, as what's been going on
[17:09] in AI. Micron Technology, a very big
[17:12] asset,
[17:13] went from a low of 60-some-odd to over
[17:15] 300. You're getting moves like Palantir
[17:18] and things. So, it lost a little bit of
[17:20] its relative mojo as a beta asset, and I
[17:23] think that took a lot of people out,
[17:25] especially uh people that on the VC
[17:27] world went. We had some market maker
[17:28] issues towards the end of the year. I
[17:30] think all of this was a consolidation,
[17:33] and I love the fact that sentiment is
[17:35] dead, and I'm love the fact that I can't
[17:37] find one technician that likes it at
[17:39] this point. Now, I posted this
[17:42] on December 30th that we had closed
[17:44] below the 50-day moving average for
[17:48] 64 days. Uh it finished the year with
[17:51] another three on top of it. We did close
[17:53] above it on the first day of the year.
[17:56] So, it had been 64 straight days, or 65
[18:01] at that point,
[18:03] since 2020 that's only happened four
[18:04] other times. So, we tied this one from
[18:07] early this year. That was obviously a
[18:09] major bottom before it went higher. Not
[18:11] all of these ended up with a major
[18:14] bottom that ended up going higher, but I
[18:16] will show you the four points. One, two,
[18:20] three,
[18:21] four. All of them were at least
[18:22] short-term entry points. This one got
[18:24] you a good rally. This one got you a
[18:26] good rally. But none of these were kind
[18:27] of the beginning of this. This one here,
[18:30] you had to deal with some more basing.
[18:32] But my main point
[18:34] in terms of going through this was to
[18:36] highlight that again,
[18:39] for me, MSCI World ex-US, which takes
[18:42] into account the non-tech world in terms
[18:45] of the ex-US, dominated by commodities
[18:48] and things like that. At the same time,
[18:51] when you have this going on, this has
[18:52] got a weaker dollar trend involved with
[18:54] it as well. MSCI World ex-US did
[18:56] outperform last year. To show the
[18:58] correlation between it and Bitcoin, here
[19:00] is the 100-day moving average of both of
[19:02] them.
[19:03] And over time, you can see Bitcoin has
[19:04] diverged since the market making
[19:07] incident and since we went down. So, my
[19:09] belief and the reason that I will not
[19:11] listen to technicians on this and I will
[19:13] still be buying into any dip that occurs
[19:15] if there are any at the beginning of the
[19:17] year is that liquidity is still
[19:19] positive. My outlook in general for this
[19:21] year is positive. There will be time in
[19:24] the future where I'm not as positive on
[19:25] the US side, and I think Bitcoin can
[19:27] have a correction. But right now, it is
[19:30] swimming uh against the liquidity
[19:32] stream, and I think that means the
[19:33] snapback will be violent, just like the
[19:36] snapback here, which also occurred
[19:38] during the same thing. Liquidity was
[19:39] going higher. I believe the same thing
[19:41] is going to happen this year. So, we
[19:44] closed above the 50-day moving average.
[19:47] First time, we'll see what happens. Uh
[19:52] It wasn't the only one. Solana
[19:55] Only time Solana had been below the
[19:56] 50-day moving average again came in
[19:58] during the April period. We closed above
[20:00] it again on the first day of the year.
[20:02] We'll see what happens. What really has
[20:04] me positive from a beta basis and what I
[20:07] like happening related to the PMIs is
[20:09] what's been going on with Ethereum
[20:11] relative to Bitcoin. So we look at a lot
[20:12] of relative positions in stock market,
[20:16] but very seldom will you see people look
[20:17] at Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. Last
[20:20] year during the upswing or when Bitcoin
[20:23] was going higher really beginning from
[20:24] 2022, Ethereum was underperforming. The
[20:28] fact that Ethereum is now going higher
[20:29] at the same time that we're getting the
[20:31] rise of
[20:32] acceptance for both stable coins and
[20:35] tokenization to me means the ecosystem
[20:37] network effects are kicking in. I think
[20:40] you want to be positive on Bitcoin
[20:42] because Ethereum is outperforming. The
[20:44] network effects are in place.
[20:46] Uh John Roark, who I show a lot and I'll
[20:49] be doing a lot more work with. I'm just
[20:51] showing this cuz he's got a very
[20:52] different view and he's saying there's
[20:54] risk to 60,000. He's also still calling
[20:58] for lower levels in
[21:00] MicroStrategy. I'm going to go against
[21:02] John on this one, but on the rest of the
[21:05] ones I'm about to show you we're on the
[21:06] same page. This is some of his big bases
[21:09] that again fit back in with the facts
[21:11] and feelings situation. Citigroup, a
[21:13] bank. As John likes to say and as I've
[21:16] shown on here, you do not get bearish
[21:18] the market when banks are breaking out.
[21:20] But in particular, a 16-year base in
[21:22] Citigroup that takes us back to the
[21:24] great financial crisis. Banks are going
[21:26] higher, deregulation is kicking in.
[21:28] Freeport-McMoRan
[21:30] haven't taken out the highs yet since
[21:33] again the great financial crisis. A big
[21:35] base, but you also have a PMI base going
[21:37] here.
[21:38] Major catalyst. I think copper is going
[21:40] much much much higher on the back of the
[21:42] needs that are associated with
[21:45] AI and the buildout. ExxonMobil, again
[21:49] up at the top end of the range. PMI base
[21:52] here, long-term base. And again, this
[21:55] happened with oil trading down to 55
[21:58] this year.
[21:59] DuPont, there's going to be a major
[22:01] major bull run in chemicals in my
[22:03] opinion because of a lot of things that
[22:04] I'll cover in terms of the Nvidia Grok
[22:07] deal and just a lot of NPU packaging. We
[22:10] are moving away from GPUs and we're
[22:12] moving into advanced packaging.
[22:15] Building out the next phase, which is
[22:16] edge devices. Chemicals will be a big
[22:18] part of this as well. You've got Hecla
[22:20] Mining, so the gold silver side breaking
[22:23] out long base. Newmont Mining, you got
[22:25] to go all the way back to the 80s in
[22:27] terms of breaking out.
[22:29] Delta Airlines, I've highlighted
[22:31] transports, another big PMI theme. All
[22:33] of these are PMI themes.
[22:35] Eli Lilly, I've highlighted the
[22:37] advancement in terms of the shift. So
[22:39] Lilly fits into a different category for
[22:41] me. I think healthcare is going to be a
[22:43] surprising replacement for a lot of tech
[22:45] this year in terms so biotech and pharma
[22:49] as AI drug discovery starts to reprice
[22:51] and re-rate this group with higher
[22:54] multiples. Tesla, a big part of the
[22:56] robotics and PMI theme for me. John
[22:58] likes that one as well. He and I've been
[23:00] on the same page on this back since it
[23:03] was about 330.
[23:05] Both talking about it and as I
[23:07] mentioned, Tesla, no safety monitor in
[23:09] the car.
[23:10] Went on
[23:11] uh uh December 24th with Elon Musk in it
[23:14] they're rolling it out for public rides.
[23:18] And again, AI still. I showed this last
[23:21] week or 2 weeks ago, but in case people
[23:23] didn't see it.
[23:25] This is
[23:26] the biggest risk to the market stability
[23:29] in 2026.
[23:31] We've never seen a single risk score so
[23:33] far ahead of the rest entering a new
[23:35] year, says Deutsche Bank. And again
[23:37] AI bubble, you will be climbing the wall
[23:39] of worry
[23:41] the entire time. Uh I on the market
[23:44] Michael Cembalest did a you know a great
[23:47] report. I like his work. I've
[23:49] highlighted before, but I think he
[23:51] brought up a lot of charts and tables
[23:53] that are worth looking at for you guys
[23:55] in terms of the AI bubble.
[23:58] And again, what we've got here is just
[24:00] total stocks
[24:02] when you include all of the direct AI
[24:04] stocks, the AI utilities, the AI cap
[24:06] equipment, you're dealing with 42
[24:07] stocks. Price return
[24:09] 78%
[24:11] S&P X those names, 22%. So basically the
[24:15] bulk of everything, whether it's
[24:17] earnings growth, whether it's the CapEx,
[24:19] all of this has been related to
[24:22] AI.
[24:24] Not a shock, but I just want to make it.
[24:26] In terms of spending, how big this is.
[24:29] You got everyone kind of spending
[24:32] a wasteful amount of time trying to say
[24:34] how much of this economy is driven by
[24:36] AI. I keep saying it's almost all of it.
[24:39] We have no job creation. If anything,
[24:42] you can see there's no job creation. AI
[24:45] is driving all of these factors at this
[24:47] point. The Fed would not be cutting
[24:48] rates if it wasn't for the job
[24:50] situation. The job situation would be AI
[24:53] is a deflationary force. It is a job
[24:56] replacing force. It has societal
[24:58] impacts. That will be a major risk is
[25:00] going to be the backlash that comes
[25:02] starting with the midterm elections.
[25:05] All of the things of trying to restrict
[25:07] this buildout, you'll have probably a
[25:09] lot of issues that pop up and risk that
[25:12] scare the market this year.
[25:14] But the reality is the tech the tech
[25:16] CapEx is massive right now. If you
[25:19] combine all of these, and again, these
[25:22] are in percent of GDP, so this is
[25:24] normalized. Manhattan Project
[25:26] electricity, Apollo Project, this
[25:28] you're dealing with this. You leave this
[25:30] one out, you're you're dealing about the
[25:31] same size as all of them combined.
[25:33] That's how big the CapEx buildout is.
[25:36] From valuation basis the reason I like
[25:39] showing this stuff is because
[25:41] I wouldn't say he's positive on the on
[25:43] AI, but I would say that he's pushing
[25:45] back against the valuation side. So if
[25:48] you've got a negative view on valuation,
[25:50] you should go spend some time looking
[25:52] the report. If you're worried about the
[25:54] debt situation, he highlights that the
[25:56] debt is big relative
[25:58] to what it was, but then he honestly
[26:00] goes through and highlights
[26:03] the net debt to EBITDA of so zero
[26:06] indicates an excess of cash and
[26:08] marketable securities. The majority of
[26:10] the space has is just loaded with cash.
[26:13] Free cash flow to revenue ratios of of
[26:16] of the AI companies. He goes to and
[26:18] compares everything to the rest of the
[26:20] market in terms of the Russell 3000.
[26:23] So his argument is this these none of
[26:24] these are are are issues for now. If
[26:27] they grow rapidly and we don't see the
[26:28] revenues, but that's the same argument
[26:30] that Jim Chanos make, which I agree
[26:31] with. If we don't see the revenues in a
[26:34] year
[26:35] you're going to have trouble for these
[26:36] names. They're still spending the money
[26:38] and as long as they're spending the
[26:40] money, you're going to see it flow
[26:41] through the S&P 500, you're going to see
[26:42] it flow through GDP. The question is are
[26:44] you going to get the benefits? I'm
[26:46] telling you as a fact, the improvements
[26:49] in AI over the course of the last 3
[26:52] months
[26:53] are impossible to describe. It is moving
[26:56] so rapidly that if you don't use it
[26:59] every day all day
[27:01] the entire day for everything that you
[27:03] do. In your cars, everything. Go buy a
[27:05] new phone, go buy a new car, talk to it
[27:07] all day long in both situations. I took
[27:10] a drive for 3 hours going back out to
[27:13] New Jersey over the course of the
[27:14] holidays. The entire time I was on with
[27:17] Grok. I didn't listen to a podcast. I
[27:19] literally had a conversation. It was
[27:21] beyond amazing for me to sit in the car
[27:24] and do it. Michael Cembalest, his risks
[27:27] for 2026. Power generation constraints.
[27:30] I'm less worried about this, but I do
[27:32] think this can become an issue even if
[27:34] it's just the states pushing back. China
[27:36] scaling the technology mode on its own,
[27:38] this one I think is overblown. China's
[27:40] approach to Taiwan geopolitical risk,
[27:42] this one has the biggest tail if there's
[27:44] any
[27:46] military fears on them invading Taiwan,
[27:48] obviously that is the biggest one. This
[27:51] one to me is the most likely, the
[27:52] metaverse moment for hyperscaler
[27:54] profits. Not that they're not going to
[27:56] get the money, but if it doesn't
[27:58] materialize as expected, it could become
[28:00] an issue next year, particularly with
[28:02] all the issuance that is going to be
[28:04] necessary to get more money. So I took
[28:06] all of his risks, I put them into
[28:11] ChatGPT
[28:13] Pro
[28:15] and I said, all right, go through these
[28:16] and give me your analysis. Give me the
[28:17] outcome probability, worry probability.
[28:20] So again, outcome probability, what's
[28:22] probability it actually happens? Worry
[28:24] probability, what's the probability that
[28:26] you the investors are worried about it?
[28:27] Look how high those numbers are.
[28:29] The nar- dominant narrative probability,
[28:31] market impact and then the So I just
[28:34] went through
[28:35] highest volatility spike not surprising
[28:37] is Taiwan. Most repeatable pain risk is
[28:40] the ROI CapEx, which I agree. You can go
[28:43] look at it on your on your own.
[28:47] Uh okay. So for the final uh
[28:52] slides
[28:53] if you haven't read this, bring it up in
[28:56] ChatGPT. I'm showing you the date. You
[28:59] can go find it in X, but
[29:01] Andrej Karpathy, who's who's arguably
[29:03] the most respected person out there and
[29:06] who's been very very, let's say
[29:08] non-emotional on this whole situation
[29:12] from
[29:13] mainly time at Tesla, but also at OpenAI
[29:16] uh just a phenomenal well-respected
[29:19] person within the space. You can tell,
[29:20] 15.6 million views. He did an interview
[29:22] with Dwarkesh back in October. I
[29:25] received multiple hedge fund reach outs
[29:29] saying that this was a negative for AI.
[29:32] What was my opinion?
[29:33] Where he basically said AGI wasn't
[29:35] coming until for another decade and that
[29:37] AI agents were way behind. Well, this is
[29:40] what he put in. I've never felt this
[29:41] much behind as a programmer. So I want
[29:43] you to remember I've never felt this
[29:46] much behind as a programmer. I have a
[29:47] sense that I could be 10 times more
[29:49] powerful if I
[29:50] just properly string together what has
[29:52] become available over the last year. So,
[29:55] Andre Karpathy is number one doing
[29:57] podcast talking about AI in a negative
[29:59] fashion, but then when he finally sits
[30:02] down and takes the time to use it a lot
[30:06] I've never felt this much behind as a
[30:08] programmer. Clearly some powerful alien
[30:10] tool was handed around
[30:12] except it comes with no manual and
[30:14] everyone has to figure out how to hold
[30:15] it and operate it while the resulting
[30:17] magnitude nine earthquake is rocking the
[30:19] profession. Roll up your sleeves to not
[30:21] fall behind.
[30:22] I'm going to emphasize this point to all
[30:24] of you because this is not just for
[30:26] programmers.
[30:28] This is for you if you're still going to
[30:30] be in the workforce
[30:32] and especially your children who are
[30:34] about to enter the workforce. College is
[30:36] not teaching them this stuff. They need
[30:39] to be using it every single day.
[30:42] This post by Karpathy went massively
[30:44] viral in late December with over 15
[30:47] million views. It captures a pivotal
[30:48] moment in the software engineering AI
[30:50] community serving as a candid wake-up
[30:53] call about how rapidly AI tools are
[30:56] transforming programming. You have
[30:57] personal vulnerability. You're giving up
[31:00] on 10 times productivity boost.
[31:05] The Times of India Business Insider
[31:06] Financial Express framed it as an open
[31:08] letter to software engineers
[31:09] highlighting the urgency of upskilling
[31:11] and AI's rise. In essence, it's a
[31:13] landmark acknowledging that 2025 marked
[31:15] an inflection point where AI began
[31:17] fundamentally changing what it means to
[31:18] be a programmer
[31:20] forcing a rapid evolution in skills. The
[31:22] first-order effects
[31:24] job refactoring, productivity explosion.
[31:26] We get back to the GDP side. We're going
[31:28] to get into the AI agents. Tools like
[31:30] multi-agent systems
[31:33] proliferate.
[31:34] Enterprise adoption surges. This is
[31:37] critical. When you get to this point,
[31:39] now the enterprise adoption is going to
[31:41] surge which means the revenues for the
[31:44] hyperscalers are going to surge. The
[31:46] model producers are going to see it
[31:48] surge because of agents and enterprise
[31:51] adoption will go off.
[31:53] So, you're going to see a big movement
[31:55] in the market in this. The third-order
[31:57] effects, and again, if you guys aren't
[31:58] in the second-order effects, third-order
[32:00] effects, I have a Santa Fe model um
[32:02] system thinkers prompt that I use to
[32:05] basically take any news item or any
[32:07] podcast or anything and get it taken out
[32:09] to the second and third-order effects.
[32:11] This is a critical part that you should
[32:12] be using on anything you have in your
[32:14] life regardless of what it is. I'm going
[32:16] to go through some of the healthcare
[32:17] stuff, some of the investing, but
[32:18] anything where you learned, if I do X,
[32:21] what happens to Y and Z on the other
[32:23] side, you have to start asking questions
[32:26] like that. This is what it's good at uh
[32:28] is the polymath side, the ability of
[32:30] looking at things from a system uh
[32:32] systems thinker perspective.
[32:35] Traditional software motes erosion. This
[32:38] gets back into Salesforce. It gets back
[32:40] into everything in there. The ability of
[32:42] building apps on the fly.
[32:45] Motes move to data pipelines,
[32:47] proprietary data sets like Tesla's
[32:49] driving data or agent ecosystems.
[32:53] We're in the mid-transition.
[32:55] It was hyped as a year of agents, but he
[32:57] noted that they fully don't work yet.
[33:00] So, now we're getting into the point
[33:01] where the path to recursive
[33:03] self-improvement
[33:05] he's still cautious
[33:07] but he didn't mention that in this
[33:09] particular one, but potential for rapid
[33:11] pro progress 2027.
[33:17] Jensen Huang,
[33:19] >> [sighs]
[33:19] >> the most important thing is
[33:21] you're not likely to lose a job to AI
[33:24] and I agree with that. You're going to
[33:26] lose a job to somebody who uses AI. So,
[33:29] I would recommend everybody do what
[33:31] do what we do, which is use artificial
[33:33] intelligence with our work and do our
[33:36] jobs better.
[33:38] So, that brings me into this. So, this
[33:39] year I will be launching this. It'll be
[33:41] coming out in January. We're just
[33:43] getting rid of all of the bugs. You can
[33:45] see my name is spelled wrong here.
[33:46] There's lots of little bugs that need to
[33:48] be
[33:49] need to be finalized, but the goal and
[33:51] part of it's going to be not just this
[33:52] the research you can get, the stocks,
[33:54] the sectors, the themes, but a big part
[33:58] of it is going to be the AI side and
[34:00] just showing you how I do all the things
[34:03] that I do and how you can incorporate AI
[34:06] into everything that you want to do,
[34:07] whether it's cooking, whether it's
[34:08] fantasy football, whether it's health,
[34:10] whether it's whatever. Anything that you
[34:12] find fun that you do on a regular basis
[34:15] where you've historically used Google or
[34:17] books or whatever uh I'm going to
[34:20] basically go in and show you how to do
[34:21] this prompt engineering, everything
[34:23] along those lines. During the two weeks
[34:25] Nvidia, and I just want to bring this up
[34:27] because this is kind of the way that
[34:30] everything goes for me now and what I've
[34:31] set up. So, Gavin Baker goes through the
[34:34] Nvidia versus Grok thing. I go out and
[34:36] write a paper on it in terms of the
[34:38] importance of it, the Nvidia Grok deal,
[34:39] why AI's next frontier requires
[34:41] architectural revolution over Moore's
[34:43] Law. This was a critical critical
[34:46] relationship built between Nvidia and
[34:48] Grok. Um it led to, and this is what
[34:52] I'll be doing for the people who sign up
[34:54] and the institutional clients of 22V.
[34:57] Basically I have about 20 names that are
[35:00] associated with this change. This is a
[35:03] change. Nvidia's not on the list. So,
[35:04] this is a broadening out related to the
[35:07] PMIs of moving into a world where
[35:10] advanced packaging becomes the dominant
[35:12] theme. Now, this has huge implications
[35:15] for a variety. So, the way that I'm
[35:16] going through this and I'm just giving
[35:17] you, how do I go from a thematic idea to
[35:20] an equity framework? Give you the
[35:22] companies. John Roque put together the
[35:25] score. If you don't know John's work,
[35:27] his his work four is
[35:30] is what you want to be involved in in
[35:31] his work. It means the trend is your
[35:33] friend.
[35:34] So, these all have a four technical
[35:36] score. I go through the earnings
[35:37] commentary and what I'm looking for
[35:39] there is I've got an algorithm which
[35:41] gives me the rankings in terms of is
[35:43] this company's progression in their
[35:45] earnings commentary showing the strength
[35:47] where management is getting more
[35:48] optimistic as time is going on related
[35:50] to the AI demand theme. So, you can see
[35:53] these are in there. Lattice
[35:54] Semiconductor continues to grow on this
[35:56] and Qualcomm does. And then revisions.
[35:58] So, revisions are just are the analysts
[36:01] on the street. So, here you have
[36:02] management. Here you have the sell-side
[36:04] research. Here you have technicals and
[36:06] here you have thematic ideas. It's a
[36:08] broad picture. My goal is to be able to
[36:11] provide you guys this uh for asset
[36:13] managers, for separately managed
[36:15] accounts. Anything along those lines, I
[36:16] will be putting all of this stuff
[36:18] together. There's a lot of themes,
[36:19] there's a lot of names, there's a lot of
[36:21] ways to screen. I'm going to be doing
[36:23] this for a variety of people um based on
[36:25] the ask, but also based on the fact that
[36:27] I've set all these up. So, Nvidia just
[36:29] admitted the general-purpose GPU era is
[36:31] ending. I can't think of a more critical
[36:33] period than kind of thinking about this
[36:35] and what it means. It means there's
[36:36] different names that are going to work
[36:37] this year. Now, at the same time why did
[36:40] Meta at the end of the year buy
[36:41] Manifold? What is the signal for your
[36:43] enterprise AI agent strategy?
[36:47] The Wall Street Journal marks said marks
[36:49] one of the clearest signals yet that
[36:50] large tech platforms are no longer just
[36:52] competing on model quality, but on who
[36:54] controls the execution layer of
[36:56] AI-powered work.
[36:57] We're getting into the
[37:00] return on invested
[37:02] capital.
[37:03] AI agents is the critical part. Again, I
[37:07] talk about this in here in terms of
[37:09] this.
[37:10] The with the names that are going to
[37:11] benefit from the enterprises needing to
[37:15] upgrade their systems. This is a major
[37:17] major change. We are going from the
[37:19] cloud.
[37:20] We're going to need to have these
[37:23] on-premise, on-site. Everything is
[37:25] on-site. Bring your own generation. It
[37:27] is very physical, it is very
[37:29] hardware-driven. You're going to have a
[37:30] lot of names that are going to benefit
[37:32] from this.
[37:33] I'm now created another thing which will
[37:35] be on the paywall for my X
[37:38] trending stuff. So, each weekend I will
[37:41] go in and basically look for the
[37:42] analysis of the most trending things out
[37:44] there. The reason I wanted to show this
[37:46] one, so this is from the final week, the
[37:48] agentic and autonomous agents. So, AI
[37:50] agents is the theme you want to be
[37:52] investing in. If you don't have 20, 30,
[37:54] 40 names related to the agentic side
[37:58] you got to start focus on it. This is
[38:00] not about data centers anymore. This is
[38:02] not That's what That's what was up there
[38:03] last year. It's not about the Palantir
[38:05] stuff in terms of the data coming
[38:06] through. You're getting a change in
[38:08] what's there and the charts are showing
[38:10] that the trend is changing. And like I
[38:12] said, reflation is the theme and
[38:14] reflation you want to be less software,
[38:17] you want to be more hardware. I created
[38:19] a market immune system. This is
[38:20] something that took me, as I mentioned
[38:22] at the beginning uh less than
[38:25] less than two hours to build. I sat on
[38:27] my couch early in the morning and I
[38:29] basically said, you know what, I'm
[38:31] finally going to build my turbulence
[38:32] model that I had asked my data scientist
[38:34] to build for years. They were more than
[38:36] capable of doing it, but here's what was
[38:37] not easy. The way that I did this, which
[38:40] you couldn't do back then, is I sat
[38:42] there and I said, I want you to go to
[38:43] GitHub and I want you to go find me the
[38:46] most highly rated
[38:49] code out there for a turbulence model.
[38:52] It comes back. It gives me this one.
[38:56] I go through and now I have to choose
[38:58] the assets. And the way that I wanted to
[39:00] choose the assets, and this is always
[39:02] what I believe when you're dealing with
[39:03] something like a covariance matrix as a
[39:05] warning system for the market. And
[39:07] that's what I wanted. A market immune
[39:08] system for me was basically something
[39:10] that would tell me when correlations and
[39:12] volatility were changing especially when
[39:15] the S&P was not yet changing cuz I
[39:17] believe the market will always show you
[39:19] the risk is moving before the actual
[39:22] index was. I I used models like this
[39:24] back in in Brazil. They were not as
[39:26] sophisticated as this. So, I gave it 100
[39:30] assets, 99 assets. A good percentage of
[39:33] them were related to AI because that's
[39:35] what's been driving the market, but then
[39:36] it also included things across stocks,
[39:38] bonds, commodities, currencies, crypto.
[39:40] When do they all start shaking at the
[39:42] same time? And what I end up getting is
[39:45] a model that basically
[39:47] is measured this way. The red line is
[39:49] where the turbulence is. When the red
[39:51] line is normally up high, these are ends
[39:53] up being bottoms. So, this is after
[39:54] something is already trended. But at the
[39:56] same time, when you get above this line
[39:58] here, this is the warning system,
[40:00] especially when the S&P is trending. So,
[40:02] the last one where we got this where it
[40:04] broke above it while the S&P was
[40:06] trending higher and above its 50-day
[40:07] moving average was here and we went
[40:09] through a correction here. This has
[40:11] typically and going back where the back
[40:12] test is
[40:14] basically gives you a warning signal
[40:15] about 7 to 10 days. So, this will be up
[40:18] on the paywall as well.
[40:20] Um and I'll send it out occasionally uh
[40:22] on the institutional side. And I just
[40:24] want to remind you guys that for AI, you
[40:27] guys have to spend the time on it. I
[40:29] think the two best ways, uh and this is
[40:32] why I've done it this way, are on the
[40:33] investing side, which is what I'm
[40:35] showing you right now, but the other one
[40:37] is HRV. For those of you who have Aura
[40:39] rings, for those of you who monitor your
[40:41] heart rate variability, I'm telling you
[40:43] I've spent more time on this. This has
[40:45] been a long journey for me. This has
[40:47] been about 15 years of focusing on this
[40:50] concept using meditation, focusing on
[40:52] the microbiome, all of these different
[40:54] things. But if you don't know why it's
[40:56] important, if you want to be better as a
[40:59] parent, if you want to be better at your
[41:00] job, there is an element involved in
[41:03] this where the balance between your
[41:06] evolutionary side
[41:08] and your brain. So, your body and your
[41:11] brain, that is what it measures. And so,
[41:13] I've spent an enormous amount of time on
[41:15] this. I'll be rolling this out in
[41:17] Substack.
[41:18] My whole goal for this AI training side
[41:21] in the analyzing things, I approach
[41:23] things in this manner. It's a complex
[41:25] system. So, investing in health, if you
[41:27] move one thing, if you change your
[41:29] protein, it has an impact on your fiber.
[41:31] If you do this, if you extract
[41:32] something, everyone plays around with
[41:34] these. They buy self-help books. They
[41:36] buy things for investing. With AI, it
[41:38] has to be a habit. This is the McRaven
[41:40] side. There's a bet thing. Every
[41:42] decision you're making under
[41:43] uncertainty, this is the Annie Duke
[41:45] side.
[41:46] Think with intelligence, dialogue, not
[41:49] answers. AI is the collaborator on all
[41:51] of this. You do not go for it like
[41:53] Google. Too many people are looking for
[41:55] solutions. It hallucinates. It does
[41:57] this. It is not meant for that. It is
[41:59] meant to help you make better decisions.
[42:00] But to do that, you have to be thinking
[42:02] with it and you have to be asking it the
[42:04] right questions. As you do it every
[42:06] single day,
[42:08] that's what I was saying. This has
[42:09] become so powerful for me, and this is
[42:12] what I'm going to focus on. Habit comes
[42:13] before outcomes. Every decision is a
[42:16] probabilistic bet. AI works as the best
[42:19] collaborator, not an answer, not an
[42:21] oracle.
[42:23] I'm going to
[42:24] basically get you to get it into a
[42:25] habit.
[42:27] The goal is not being right. The goal is
[42:29] making better bets repeatedly. That's
[42:30] the Annie Duke philosophy, the
[42:32] collaboration side.
[42:34] I can't I really can't emphasize to you
[42:37] how much it goes through. On the prompt
[42:38] engineering side, what you're going to
[42:40] see is to give you an idea of my
[42:42] prompts, if you just type in and you go,
[42:44] "Hey, I want an answer for this." Ultra
[42:47] think reasoning optimized operating
[42:48] contract. All I do when I ask it a
[42:50] question of something that I want is
[42:52] I'll put in what I'm trying to solve for
[42:54] and then I'll type it
[42:56] I'll I'll paste in this prompt,
[42:58] which
[43:00] goes all the way here. It's two pages.
[43:03] If I want to do Socrates mode, your
[43:05] child might be someone who doesn't raise
[43:07] their hand in class, but if someone asks
[43:10] them a question, they're fine.
[43:12] This is the way. You're not here you you
[43:14] literally put it in Socrates mode, and
[43:17] that way it asks you the questions.
[43:18] Think about what a doctor does when it
[43:20] says, "What did you have for lunch? What
[43:21] did you have this?" That's what Socrates
[43:22] mode is.
[43:24] The process in one sentence show up
[43:26] daily, think in probabilities,
[43:27] collaborate with intelligence systems in
[43:29] systems that never stop changing. You
[43:31] have to do this. Investing in health are
[43:33] the easiest way in my mind. But if
[43:35] that's not what you're interested in, I
[43:37] guarantee you by reading the Substack
[43:40] and by going in and and watching the
[43:42] videos, whether it's cooking, whether
[43:44] it's fantasy football, travel planning,
[43:46] learning a new skill, anything, chess,
[43:48] painting, whatever, career development,
[43:51] any of those things, you will get the
[43:52] answer for. You'll be better in terms of
[43:54] thinking. If you're not using it now,
[43:57] this is where you're going to be at the
[43:58] end of anything involved with me. That's
[44:00] how I got to where I am with doing these
[44:02] videos and kind of showing you guys how
[44:04] to go from podcast, thematic ideas, down
[44:07] to stocks, incorporating all the
[44:09] information. Everything that I do there,
[44:11] everything that I built, the whole
[44:13] immune system thing,
[44:14] it was all done basically verbally. And
[44:16] like I said, driving out now anywhere,
[44:18] New Jersey with my kids, going through
[44:20] this, I'm just on Grok verbally. If you
[44:22] guys haven't started to do it, you're
[44:24] missing out on something big. The goal
[44:26] for this year for all of you is to get
[44:28] you to the point where AI is something
[44:30] you're collaborating with. It'll bring
[44:32] more uh power to you. And if you are
[44:34] focused on the health side, I'm telling
[44:36] you, if you take a journey with me,
[44:39] there will be hundreds of things that
[44:42] you will learn, even if you're not
[44:43] focused on HRV, but you're just focused
[44:46] on being happier and getting a better
[44:48] balance in your life between what your
[44:49] body is saying and what your mind is
[44:51] saying.
[44:52] Trust me, that's what the whole thing is
[44:53] about.
[44:54] Happy New Year to you all. Again, thanks
[44:56] for uh being here. Share the video. Do
[44:59] whatever you need. Uh we're going to
[45:01] reset for the year. We're going to make
[45:02] some money together. We're going to be
[45:04] up on the news together. And for those
[45:06] of you who join me on an AI journey, I
[45:08] promise you I will make you much more
[45:10] powerful as an individual. And for the
[45:12] younger people out there, uh our job is
[45:14] to find a way to make sure that you're
[45:15] prepared for what the world's going to
[45:16] look like. I'll see you guys again next
[45:18] week.

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