Bitcoin & AI Will DOMINATE The Next Rotation

[0:00] I just think Bitcoin right now, you have
[0:02] to watch it and if we start to trade
[0:03] higher and I'll give everyone a level.
[0:05] If we trade above 76,000 and at the same
[0:08] time we see Ethereum above 2400, I
[0:11] believe that is the beginning of a move
[0:13] that will be sustainable this year
[0:15] because I don't think we're going to
[0:16] have a recession. I think inflation is
[0:18] going to stay elevated and I think
[0:20] people are going to need to find
[0:21] something that is making money in a
[0:22] world where the S&P is not moving
[0:24] anywhere. What's going on guys? In
[0:25] today's conversation with Jordi Visser,
[0:27] we go over all of the latest inflation
[0:29] data, what's going on with scarcity
[0:31] trade, abundance trade, how he's
[0:33] thinking about the difference between
[0:34] software stocks and AI stocks, how he's
[0:36] seeing Bitcoin and why it's starting to
[0:38] perform pretty well, and he's going to
[0:39] drop some alpha, some data that he went
[0:41] and he pulled as to when Bitcoin does
[0:43] best and why right now may be a time to
[0:45] start paying attention. All that much
[0:47] more in my conversation with Jordi
[0:49] Visser.
[0:50] Jordi, the Iran war seems to have a
[0:52] ceasefire and markets are rallying.
[0:54] Everyone seems to be very excited that
[0:56] this thing is going to be over. I think
[0:57] maybe you have a little bit more
[0:58] tempered expectation. What's going on
[1:00] right now?
[1:02] Uh well, I think rather than get into
[1:04] the focus of the direction, I think
[1:06] every week I say to people this is going
[1:08] to be a continuous year of rotation just
[1:12] because of how mispositioned people are
[1:13] for artificial intelligence. So,
[1:16] if you go back to the end of February
[1:18] just before the war started,
[1:20] you know, everything that we talked
[1:21] about was hardware, semiconductors, and
[1:23] commodities on the long side, shortages,
[1:26] scarcity.
[1:28] And then on the short side were the
[1:31] negative news, which is really about
[1:34] software, private credit, and that whole
[1:37] Those things haven't bounced at all. In
[1:39] fact, software's made new lows and has
[1:41] been destroyed the last 3 days.
[1:44] And it's because again of AI progress.
[1:47] So,
[1:48] you know, I I think because of the
[1:50] headlines people get caught in this
[1:51] thing. Believe it or not, we finished
[1:53] yesterday with the S&P unchanged for the
[1:55] year. And as I've said um, repeatedly
[1:58] and will continue to say, there is no
[2:00] recession coming and that's because the
[2:02] AI demand is massive. At the same time,
[2:06] we're the new news that has happened
[2:07] since before the war that has not
[2:09] changed, there are no more rate cuts
[2:11] built in.
[2:12] Uh, we have zero rate cuts by the end of
[2:14] the year.
[2:16] At the same time, we have gas at the
[2:18] pump and diesel up significantly and
[2:21] even though people are hopeful that
[2:23] these prices will come down because of
[2:25] the ceasefire, I I don't believe they're
[2:28] going to come down and definitely not
[2:30] all the way down. We haven't got into
[2:32] the food side. We've moved uh, we've
[2:34] moved to a place where inflation is
[2:37] going to be significantly higher.
[2:39] And it could be higher than any time
[2:41] outside, believe it or not, outside of
[2:44] 2022,
[2:45] we could have headline inflation up at
[2:47] 6%, which would be the highest level
[2:49] since, I think, the early '90s. So,
[2:53] people are not, in my opinion, um,
[2:56] focused on the important thing, which is
[2:58] that AI progress is accelerating even
[3:00] faster. That disruption, that whole
[3:03] supersonic tsunami that both you and I
[3:06] have, you know, stolen from from Elon
[3:09] Musk and from the moonshots crew.
[3:12] I think that's where people should be
[3:13] focused. So, it's all about hardware,
[3:15] semis, and commodities on the long side
[3:17] and it's about software and private
[3:18] credit on the short side and I don't
[3:20] think that's going to change for the
[3:21] entire year.
[3:22] There are people who are watching this
[3:23] who are going to hear you say two things
[3:25] and they think that they're incompatible
[3:27] with each other. Software is on the
[3:29] short side, AI is on the long side.
[3:33] They think of software and AI is the
[3:35] same thing. Explain the difference.
[3:37] Yeah, and that's an important point cuz
[3:39] that's why
[3:41] that's why a lot of ETFs and a lot of
[3:43] things on the long side for AI, uh, most
[3:46] of the baskets are software. Um, they
[3:48] just are.
[3:50] Uh,
[3:50] every single software name is getting
[3:52] hit. Even this week, Palantir, which is
[3:54] a name that I've been, you know, talking
[3:56] about, I had to post an X yesterday that
[3:58] even it, relative to Microsoft, gave up
[4:00] the entire 25% gain that occurred since,
[4:04] you know, mid-February after the
[4:05] sell-off. Every software name's getting
[4:07] hit. So, let's go through what AI is cuz
[4:09] this gets into the abundance side.
[4:12] Artificial intelligence has made coding
[4:14] free.
[4:15] It has made it ubiquitous, and now you
[4:17] have AI agents doing the coding.
[4:20] Which means you can go from idea to
[4:22] application or
[4:24] software competitor within a matter of
[4:27] minutes.
[4:28] And I think people have faded the whole
[4:31] software situation. I think a lot of
[4:32] people tried to pick the bottom of it.
[4:34] They haven't
[4:35] embraced the viewpoint that I'll
[4:37] continue to say over and over again,
[4:39] which is
[4:40] artificial intelligence is disrupting
[4:42] every single part of any business that
[4:46] comes
[4:48] that's built on code. There's just no
[4:49] way around it. You're just making it
[4:51] cheaper to do. Play all companies that
[4:53] are built on code have human beings, and
[4:55] startup businesses can create
[4:57] competitive businesses. And are they as
[4:59] good as
[5:00] Salesforce? No, but that's acting like
[5:02] salesforce.com,
[5:04] the products they make are perfect.
[5:05] They're not.
[5:06] I think what Anthropic has done with the
[5:08] AI agents has make it more challenging.
[5:10] When you get to Palantir,
[5:13] which is not a SaaS company, but is
[5:15] something that absolutely I do not
[5:17] believe will be disrupted by
[5:19] AI in the way that the market is
[5:21] judging, but I admit I'm not going to
[5:24] try to sit here and say that it's not
[5:26] valid for it to move the multiple down
[5:28] because maybe 5 years from now there
[5:30] isn't a valid business for Palantir. And
[5:32] what's happening is it's looking forward
[5:34] and it's saying your multiples are not
[5:35] there. You are up for disruption. And
[5:37] so, everything built on software is
[5:39] getting repriced. That has implications
[5:41] for the way people are positioned across
[5:42] the globe.
[5:43] Now, one of the things that people have
[5:45] been very excited about is the
[5:47] democratization and access to superhuman
[5:50] intelligence. So, when ChatGPT comes
[5:52] out, etc. And most of those people go
[5:54] when they use it in a very kind of
[5:57] Google replacement type manner.
[6:00] Andre Karpathy
[6:02] recently came out with this tweet and he
[6:03] basically said there's like two
[6:04] different groups of people using AI
[6:06] right now. There are the people who
[6:07] tried it, you know, a year or two ago as
[6:10] that Google replacement. They saw
[6:11] hallucinations, they saw some you know,
[6:14] some value, but they said, "Okay, this
[6:15] is just kind of like a better version,
[6:17] but I still don't know if I trust it."
[6:19] Then there is on the other extreme
[6:20] people who are basically AI hypnosis,
[6:24] right? I think it's what he called. And
[6:26] these people are using it every day,
[6:27] they're using agentic technology,
[6:29] they're deep into the command line
[6:31] interfaces, and and they're just like
[6:33] all in.
[6:34] His point I think was like the truth is
[6:36] somewhere in between on these two. How
[6:38] do you compare a group that is saying,
[6:41] "Hey, look, I use ChatGPT every once in
[6:42] a while to get answers, but I don't
[6:44] understand why this is such a big deal."
[6:46] And then the group of people who thinks
[6:47] that like AI's going to replace every
[6:48] human and people are just going to live
[6:50] in some, you know, utopian world where
[6:51] nobody has to work.
[6:54] Yeah, I don't I don't see it as black
[6:56] and white, but let's let's take what he
[6:57] said cuz I do agree that the majority of
[6:59] people that I meet
[7:01] are in the first camp. I I think they
[7:04] still use it as a chatbot or a search
[7:06] engine, and that's it. Um
[7:09] I've traveled, you know, a decent amount
[7:11] to or at least done a a lot of
[7:13] institutional
[7:15] Zooms, and and I'll just tell you the
[7:17] biggest surprise for me,
[7:19] and it shouldn't be, but we're so far
[7:22] further ahead in progress from where we
[7:23] were in October,
[7:26] it people haven't done anything with
[7:28] agents yet. It's actually kind of scary
[7:30] to me since it's so easy to use. I know
[7:32] you and I talk about it, and we're
[7:33] amazed at what we're able to do,
[7:36] but it's just gotten too easy to use. Um
[7:38] whenever I hear anyone try to defend
[7:40] Microsoft, and I just show them
[7:42] something that I've I've done
[7:44] in that day. Every single day I build
[7:47] something. I sent you something this
[7:49] morning on Bitcoin.
[7:50] I used all five LLMs. The first one to
[7:54] do the the information and then the
[7:56] other four to check the information and
[7:58] make sure it's fine.
[8:00] But they're all using AI agents to go
[8:02] through this stuff. So
[8:04] I think we're Andre Karpathy maybe is uh
[8:08] a little bit useless for this
[8:10] conversation is he's so far to the
[8:12] extreme right in terms of of of an
[8:15] engineer in understanding this stuff
[8:16] that the middle ground is really any
[8:18] single person can be using it to create
[8:21] things. The question is do you have the
[8:23] curiosity of
[8:25] hey, I don't want to waste my time with
[8:27] this mindless crap. I have really
[8:29] interesting things to do.
[8:31] And I don't think the majority of people
[8:33] think that way. I think they've been
[8:34] trained in the software and search world
[8:36] to have it at your fingertips. It's kind
[8:38] of a mindless journey to just put
[8:39] something into a chatbot and ask for an
[8:41] answer. It actually takes curiosity. It
[8:44] takes a little bit of entrepreneurship
[8:46] to actually use the agentic side. So I
[8:49] think it's more reflection of
[8:51] a bigger bigger problem inside the
[8:52] country which is will people ever use it
[8:54] in that manner based on the way the
[8:56] education system, the way that Google
[8:58] search train people and the way that
[9:01] honestly software just got people to
[9:03] work to press a button and to think that
[9:05] they'd have to build something
[9:06] themselves is just not something they're
[9:08] interested in doing.
[9:10] Now, this whole idea of democratizing
[9:11] access I think people are like hey if I
[9:13] got 20 bucks a month I can go and I can
[9:15] use some of these tools. But now we're
[9:16] starting to see a great separation,
[9:19] right? And that separation is Mythos
[9:21] from Anthropic is not actually being
[9:24] given to the public. We're giving it to
[9:26] some cybersecurity experts. It sounds
[9:28] like maybe JP Morgan has access to it as
[9:30] well I read a report on. And so it's
[9:33] they're picking and choosing who has
[9:34] access to this like synthetic superhuman
[9:37] intelligence.
[9:39] Does this just become a game of like
[9:40] whoever gets access, they pull away from
[9:42] their competitors or are there concerns?
[9:44] How do you just read into we're now
[9:47] starting to pick and choose who has the
[9:49] technology versus just open it up to
[9:51] anyone who's got money?
[9:54] Well, you and I briefly talked about
[9:55] this last week. I wrote a paper about it
[9:57] last week. I I don't think people um
[10:01] I don't think the majority of people are
[10:03] up on the news and I don't think they
[10:04] fully grasp the importance of this
[10:06] particular model. And just so it's
[10:08] clear, um
[10:10] Open AI says they have a model coming
[10:12] out which is the same if not better. The
[10:15] main point is the models have reached a
[10:18] point that a bunch of things have
[10:21] entered
[10:22] I guess the world that people need to
[10:24] hear about and this is going to be a
[10:25] bigger story. And this is really why the
[10:27] software names got hit so hard this
[10:29] week. So if people didn't know why
[10:30] Salesforce and Palantir and Adobe and
[10:32] all these names had another leg lower
[10:34] along with the cyber names,
[10:36] the reason is because this model is so
[10:39] good that basically nothing can stop it
[10:41] from hacking. So the reason they brought
[10:44] it to cyber firms, they created a a
[10:47] group Glasswing to basically give it to
[10:50] all of these groups to say, "Hey, let's
[10:52] look at it and figure out how we can
[10:54] stop this from being an issue." So this
[10:56] is kind of the stage before the day
[10:58] really dangerous stage of true AGI and
[11:01] true ASI.
[11:02] We're at that point where we've talked
[11:04] about when would we get there? We're
[11:07] there. Um and it's a little dystopian to
[11:09] to to see what's going on. And if you
[11:12] don't believe that the company really
[11:14] has done this and this is kind of a
[11:15] marketing
[11:17] Uh Scott Bessent uh had a meeting with
[11:19] the banks. I mean, he called an urgent
[11:21] meeting with the leaders of the banks
[11:24] because of the hacking risk associated
[11:25] with this. Now, I talked about this over
[11:27] the course of the last month when the
[11:29] Open Claw situation had reached that we
[11:31] were going to have agent swarms and then
[11:33] hacking were going to be a major story
[11:35] and before the end of this year I still
[11:36] believe that we're going to have a
[11:38] situation where cryptography ironically
[11:41] enough is going to be the place that
[11:42] people have to go to to try and defend
[11:43] against this. The reason Palantir was
[11:46] hit is because basically they're saying
[11:48] well Anthropic is the only one that can
[11:49] defend against Anthropic at this point
[11:51] and you need to use Anthropic for your
[11:53] cyber side to go through it so you've
[11:55] entered this very strange world but
[11:57] there's another angle to it
[11:59] which you you kind of brought up but I
[12:01] just want to make sure people realize
[12:04] the pricing of this will be enormous.
[12:06] Um people have to realize that on the
[12:08] $20
[12:09] um
[12:10] you know amount
[12:12] they're not making any money. I mean the
[12:14] competition for the LLMs is so extreme
[12:18] and the usage is high enough that
[12:20] they're not making any money on this.
[12:22] They have revenues coming in the door
[12:23] but they're not making any money. So
[12:25] whenever we see the revenue run rate
[12:27] what is left out is the margins and the
[12:29] cost which again even though Anthropic
[12:31] is seeing the revenues go up their costs
[12:33] have gone up as as well and so if they
[12:36] can't control their margins and they
[12:37] can't control their costs and it gets
[12:39] commoditized and the competition keeps
[12:40] coming
[12:41] they have an issue. This model and
[12:43] agents in general are using so much
[12:45] compute that the reason the
[12:46] semiconductors are going parabolic the
[12:48] reason that Jensen Huang on Lex Friedman
[12:51] talked explicitly about how much compute
[12:54] is needed for this because of the
[12:55] inference explosion
[12:57] this is a very dangerous situation. I
[13:00] don't think we have enough compute. The
[13:02] only places that are going to have this
[13:03] model are the people are the enterprises
[13:06] that can pay for it. The real question
[13:07] to me is what's going to happen to
[13:09] people like you and I that are using the
[13:10] $200 variety. I've already seen limits
[13:13] hit. I've seen it happen on Perplexity
[13:16] and I've seen it happen on
[13:19] on Anthropic and Claude and Claude's
[13:21] gone down as well. So I think we're
[13:24] running into a problem where the demand
[13:26] numbers because basically
[13:29] people are no longer using it. Digital
[13:31] employees are using it and their needs
[13:34] are insatiable. And so this is a this
[13:36] has got major issues associated with it.
[13:38] And just so people realize, these
[13:40] companies can't slow down on providing
[13:42] it because they're worried they'll be
[13:43] leapfrogged. So Claude is trying to
[13:46] Anthropic is trying to find a solution
[13:47] for this. So they had to make a deal
[13:48] with Google
[13:50] to get access to their TPUs because
[13:52] remember Dario Amodei has talked about
[13:54] not over investing in compute. And with
[13:57] all the data center delays, we don't
[13:59] have enough compute. So we're at that
[14:01] stand that kind of point in time where
[14:04] people have to worry not about there
[14:06] being a bubble but us not able to
[14:08] provide what we need to and prices going
[14:10] higher which gets back to the
[14:11] inflationary component. Today's episode
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[15:11] educate you.
[15:17] This part I think is very important. So
[15:19] for people who are unaware, Anthropic
[15:21] added uh supposedly, $11 billion
[15:24] in annualized revenue just in the month
[15:26] of March. So, they went from 19 billion
[15:28] in annualized revenue to 30, which is
[15:30] almost an unfathomable number for such a
[15:32] young company in the private market,
[15:34] etc. But, maybe more interestingly, is I
[15:37] think it is pretty well accepted in the
[15:39] market that Nvidia's GPU chips are
[15:42] superior to Google's TPU chips. But,
[15:45] people are going now to Google and
[15:47] saying, "I'll strike a deal with you on
[15:48] the inferior technology." And again,
[15:50] they're still great, but they're
[15:52] inferior to Nvidia. "I'll strike a deal
[15:54] because I literally do not have another
[15:56] option.
[15:57] You are the best available." And so,
[15:59] when you think about that, is that like
[16:00] a Okay, investors should go look at
[16:02] Google. Broadcom was involved in that
[16:04] deal. Hey, let's go look at Broadcom. Is
[16:06] that There's other ramifications. We've
[16:09] seen, uh, Roundhill came out with a
[16:11] memory ETF that they're trying to play
[16:13] on the shortage of memory. Like, just
[16:14] talk through maybe a little bit as to
[16:16] how you're thinking about in the market
[16:17] where opportunity could lie for
[16:19] investors.
[16:21] So, this gets back to the the point of,
[16:24] um,
[16:25] So, I've done five thematic pieces since
[16:27] November all around inference.
[16:30] Uh, they've ranged from advanced
[16:32] packaging in semiconductors, which I
[16:33] wrote after Nvidia did the deal with
[16:35] Groq, with the realization that GPUs
[16:38] were not going to be able to do
[16:40] everything. You've seen Intel go up
[16:41] dramatically. You've seen, uh, a variety
[16:44] of semiconductor. I mean, there's so
[16:46] many I've mentioned on this podcast,
[16:47] Teradyne, uh, has gone from about 110 to
[16:51] to 300 change. I did one on optical
[16:53] fibers around Corning. Those names are
[16:56] are up finally. You've seen deals with
[16:58] Coherent and Light, uh, from Nvidia.
[17:02] Nvidia did a deal with Marvell, which is
[17:04] a company that I've talked about in at
[17:06] 22V in terms of, uh, and it's recently
[17:09] gone up 30% in less than 2 weeks.
[17:12] The compute side
[17:13] is right now where we are. We don't have
[17:15] enough compute. The optical fiber side,
[17:18] the reason we need that is because the
[17:19] amount of traffic necessary for this is
[17:22] coming from east to west. It's not about
[17:24] the training side.
[17:26] So, we're at a very um unique position.
[17:29] Uh
[17:30] there was an over-investment in memory
[17:32] only 3 years ago.
[17:34] So, there's been an under-investment,
[17:36] and this is the thing people have to
[17:37] realize. Supply and demand,
[17:40] you highlighted the demand side. The
[17:42] revenue numbers, which are parabolic for
[17:44] Anthropic, are around AI demand, token
[17:47] demand.
[17:49] For us to satisfy that, if you think
[17:50] about it like food or anything else,
[17:53] we don't have it. And so, that is a sign
[17:56] that we're trying to take anything. Uh
[17:58] if you go through, and I know you've had
[17:59] Warren Pies on, uh I think you've had
[18:01] Warren Pies on before. Um okay. So, he
[18:04] um does a great job of showing the
[18:06] rental rates and everything happening
[18:08] with GPU. There's none available. Meta
[18:10] did a deal with Coreweave. Um all of
[18:13] this stuff is happening, and I think
[18:14] people from an investor standpoint have
[18:17] made a mistake of trying to fade
[18:20] the semiconductor move cuz they've heard
[18:21] about this bubble talk. Everything that
[18:23] was a bubble talk 6 months ago, we're
[18:25] talking about the opposite. Anthropic is
[18:28] getting their run rate going to where,
[18:30] like you said, it wasn't that long ago
[18:33] they were on a run rate of nine. Now
[18:35] they're on a run rate of 30, and this is
[18:37] all because of what we talked about.
[18:38] Opus 4.5 came, and all of a sudden the
[18:41] agentic world opened up. We are in the
[18:43] very first inning. I don't even think
[18:45] there's one out yet in the agentic
[18:47] world. It just started. And so, for
[18:49] people that are looking for investments,
[18:51] you can't be wrong in looking for this.
[18:53] I will say Nvidia itself
[18:56] is still an important player in this
[18:57] whole thing, and their stock is way too
[19:00] cheap relative to the demand numbers
[19:02] that are happening. So, it's very hard
[19:04] for the market as a whole to go down
[19:07] even with oil on a war going on because
[19:09] the earnings are growing so fast for all
[19:11] of these companies on the receiver end
[19:14] of the CapEx. So, the CapEx numbers just
[19:16] keep going. The receivers continue to
[19:20] see their earnings go up, and I think
[19:21] that's the world we're in is multiple
[19:23] compression, and S&P 500 that goes
[19:25] through the rotation, but you want to
[19:27] focus on the hardware and the
[19:28] semiconductor names and anything Dell,
[19:31] HPE, Corning, all of those names,
[19:34] they're all related to the same thing.
[19:36] There's an underinvestment to massive
[19:37] demand.
[19:39] When we look through these different
[19:41] companies that you're talking about, you
[19:42] have been very right, I think, to start
[19:44] the year now. And it goes back to this
[19:46] idea of software and AI are very, uh,
[19:48] kind of separate, although people are
[19:49] confusing them together. How do you
[19:52] think about large caps versus small cap
[19:54] companies? I think a lot of folks are
[19:56] used to small caps have explosive
[19:58] opportunities, but they also have a lot
[20:00] of downside. You're kind of getting paid
[20:02] for the risk that you're taking in a
[20:03] small cap or medium cap stock. Some of
[20:05] the companies that you're talking about
[20:07] are large cap companies. These are not
[20:08] small businesses. And they're growing at
[20:11] very fast rates. And so, are we headed
[20:13] to a world where large companies, like
[20:16] we've seen Oracle or or Meta, etc.,
[20:18] report some pretty crazy year-over-year
[20:20] growth numbers? Is that the new normal,
[20:22] where people can kind of get what they
[20:23] used to get in small caps, but now they
[20:25] can get it from these much more mature
[20:26] businesses, and that's going to kind of
[20:28] become the standard environment?
[20:31] Well, the the large cap stocks have not
[20:33] done well this year. This has been a
[20:34] small cap market. So, with the S&P
[20:36] unchanged for the year, the Russell 2000
[20:38] is still up. Um, I've talked about my
[20:40] belief that public companies are are
[20:42] just not going to produce returns over
[20:44] the next 2 10 years, and I'm going to
[20:46] reemphasize that point. Um, GDP is going
[20:49] to go higher. The spending is going to
[20:51] happen. There's a lot of companies that
[20:52] are either not public or part of the
[20:54] Russell 2000 or
[20:56] are in countries like Brazil, which I'm
[20:58] positive of, which made new highs for
[20:59] the year, uh, yesterday. I I just, you
[21:02] know, chemical stocks are not large cap,
[21:05] uh, you know, aside from Dow and DuPont.
[21:07] But when you go through most of the
[21:08] chemical names on my chemical list,
[21:10] they're small cap. A lot of the names I
[21:12] mentioned for the optical fiber side,
[21:13] not Corning, small cap.
[21:15] Uh, Modine, which is a a thermal name,
[21:18] the thermal cooling side. This is all
[21:20] about more heat. This is all about more
[21:22] components. This is all about more nuts
[21:24] and bolts. There's a lot of small cap
[21:26] companies. Uh, energy as a sector is
[21:29] smaller is half the uh, market cap of
[21:31] Nvidia. I mean, there's plenty of places
[21:33] for people to go. I actually um, don't
[21:35] like the large cap as a general theme
[21:38] unless they're related to hardware. The
[21:39] hyperscalers have not done well this
[21:41] year. Do I think their earnings are are
[21:43] fine? Yeah, but their free cash flows
[21:46] turned negative. And so, they're betting
[21:48] making a big bet on the future. And what
[21:50] is happening to all companies that have
[21:52] a code side or a competitive side from a
[21:54] margin compression,
[21:56] are you going to have pricing power? And
[21:58] that's the issue that keeps coming
[21:59] through. And right now, these companies
[22:01] are making money, but
[22:03] they've got an accounting benefit that
[22:04] came from the one big beautiful bill on
[22:06] this CapEx side. Their free cash flow is
[22:08] going negative. They've got competitors
[22:10] with Anthropic and OpenAI, which are not
[22:12] public companies at this point. SpaceX
[22:15] is coming to the market. I I would not
[22:17] be focused on the large cap companies or
[22:19] thinking that they're going to own this.
[22:20] I've been going a different direction.
[22:22] Uh, I believe this is an entrepreneur
[22:24] side. I believe this is a a startup
[22:26] business, and I think the private part
[22:28] of the market, ironically enough, not
[22:31] big private companies, but very small
[22:33] tiny private companies are going to have
[22:34] a major advantage here just because of
[22:37] how nimble they are and because they
[22:38] don't have something to lose and
[22:39] probably most importantly,
[22:41] human beings are the major cost of the
[22:43] S&P 500. Um,
[22:45] if the agentic side is speeding up right
[22:47] now, and a lot of what I'm going to show
[22:48] this weekend is from people now saying
[22:50] with this new model,
[22:52] this new model is very, very, very bad
[22:54] for labor. Um, all knowledge workers are
[22:57] at risk. If you have a model that is
[22:59] autonomous and can break into anything,
[23:01] that means they can replicate and
[23:02] self-learn on their own. That is the
[23:05] danger now that we've sped up so quickly
[23:07] that you're going to see an impact to
[23:08] the knowledge workers far more than
[23:09] we've seen already.
[23:11] Let's talk about the economic data that
[23:13] came out this morning. You mentioned a
[23:14] little bit earlier, the inflation number
[23:16] is obviously rising. Uh the PCE number I
[23:19] think gives people a little bit more
[23:20] confidence, but still uh a little
[23:22] concerning. You keep talking about
[23:24] headline CPI going above 5%. Let's put
[23:27] aside for a second uh the headline
[23:29] number is going to go higher.
[23:31] What do you think actual inflation is?
[23:34] And the reason I ask that is like
[23:35] trueflation is showing that it has
[23:36] nearly doubled since the start of the
[23:38] Iran war. So trueflation and CPI are
[23:40] both going higher, but trueflation is
[23:42] showing something that is less than 2%.
[23:44] Call it 1.7, 1.8%.
[23:46] And what it begs the question of is this
[23:49] tension between short-term oil,
[23:51] short-term inflation type pressures that
[23:53] could become long-term, but right now
[23:54] they're only short-term. Versus
[23:56] long-term deflationary component. You
[23:59] mentioned that you think stocks are not
[24:00] going to appreciate a lot over the next
[24:01] decade. And so how are you thinking
[24:03] about just inflation in general?
[24:08] What wins out? The short-term inflation
[24:09] pressure or the long-term deflationary
[24:11] pressure?
[24:14] So again, I'll I'll I'll say it again.
[24:16] Nobody watching this cares
[24:18] at all about trueflation.
[24:21] Um should
[24:22] >> There's not a cent The
[24:24] uh no, they shouldn't. Um inflation is a
[24:26] feel, it's not a number. Um it's
[24:29] impossible for them to true truly
[24:30] calculate inflation. So we've had a
[24:32] difference between inflation for a long
[24:34] time. Um headline inflation, so core
[24:37] inflation is only 2.3%.
[24:41] Headline inflation is now 3.3,
[24:44] and it will be above five just based on
[24:46] what's going to happen with food prices
[24:48] and what's going to happen with gas.
[24:49] Affordability is a major issue. So the
[24:51] reason I say nobody cares about
[24:53] trueflation, I don't see anyone going
[24:55] this is fantastic, inflation is low
[24:57] again.
[24:58] Wages are falling and the job market is
[25:00] not strong.
[25:01] So wages are down below 4% on almost
[25:04] every measure.
[25:05] Uh they're probably going to be sticky
[25:07] around these levels.
[25:08] But if inflation does go above 5%,
[25:11] you're going to have negative
[25:13] wages. Now again, back to the last time
[25:15] we had inflation, that was YOLO time.
[25:19] This is a very different time. People
[25:20] spent the money during the first wave of
[25:22] inflation and had a party. They didn't
[25:25] save the money that was handed out. And
[25:26] so what we have now is a situation where
[25:29] affordability is already an issue.
[25:32] And gas and food prices are going
[25:33] higher. Plastic prices are going higher.
[25:36] Diesel prices are up faster than any
[25:38] point over the course of the last 25
[25:40] years.
[25:41] You're going to That means every truck
[25:43] has things. Jet fuel, the airline prices
[25:46] are going to go higher. And this is not
[25:47] a question of will it? It will. So all
[25:50] of that stuff is eventually going to
[25:52] feed through. And that means people at
[25:53] home are going to feel this. Now,
[25:56] we haven't had this situation.
[25:57] Three-month rates are now at
[26:00] 3.66% 3.65 when when we got on here. And
[26:04] we're going to have headline inflation
[26:05] above it.
[26:07] You know, I'm I'm very focused on a lot
[26:09] of things, but this negative yield
[26:12] and the fact that wages are going to be
[26:13] This is going to have huge implications
[26:16] for the midterms.
[26:17] Inflation will be a major major part of
[26:20] the midterm elections. Bless you. So
[26:23] don't you know, I I I think this this
[26:25] situation of hey, core is really low.
[26:28] The Fed doesn't have to raise rates.
[26:31] Okay, but the people at home are going
[26:32] to be feeling the pressure because jobs
[26:34] are not safe. And at the same time,
[26:36] we've got an affordability issue that
[26:38] isn't going to get better with this.
[26:40] One of the aspects I do not have a
[26:41] strong opinion on how this plays out,
[26:43] but I think is very interesting is in
[26:45] more than 50% of the major metros, we
[26:49] are now seeing prices come down on
[26:50] homes. And
[26:54] I think that it goes back to like two
[26:55] things can be true. Homes are expensive,
[26:56] yet they are not continuing to
[26:58] accelerate at this rapid rate. Now, that
[27:00] could change, but I think what you're
[27:02] talking about from like how people feel,
[27:04] it actually isn't so much about the
[27:05] year-over-year rate of change as much as
[27:07] it's just like, I remember 5 years ago
[27:09] this was way less expensive, and it is
[27:11] just through the roof in comparison. And
[27:14] so, regardless of the year-over-year
[27:15] rate of change, I just feel like
[27:17] everything is expensive. And I think you
[27:19] are right that like that doesn't go away
[27:21] if prices come down 1 or 2%.
[27:24] Right? That that just feels like
[27:25] everything is expensive even if it was
[27:27] 5% cheaper, it is still expensive.
[27:30] Yeah, and that and that's that's the
[27:32] issue for people. If you've heard the
[27:33] term core inflation, you were wondering
[27:35] that the difference.
[27:36] Um core inflation is supposed to strip
[27:39] out the variable side of commodities.
[27:41] That's why it was
[27:43] put together so that we could deal with,
[27:45] you know, what was happening in the
[27:47] 1970s. It doesn't change the issue. What
[27:50] we know for a fact is when people who
[27:52] are driving gas cars go to the gas
[27:55] station,
[27:56] it is significantly more to fill it up.
[27:58] Now, is it more than it was during 2022?
[28:00] No, it's it's the same. But again, the
[28:03] way people live paycheck to paycheck in
[28:05] the country, any type of increase,
[28:08] especially on something like
[28:10] electricity, like gasoline,
[28:13] phones, uh I I I mean, I hate to to say
[28:16] it, um
[28:18] if there's scarcity and underinvestment,
[28:20] and that's the commodity world, AI is
[28:22] very inflationary for things related to
[28:25] the physical underinvested world, and
[28:27] that means the phone, it means all of
[28:29] this stuff is going to go up in price.
[28:31] At the same time, we do have labor
[28:33] shortages in things like daycare, uh
[28:37] teachers, nurses.
[28:39] Uh we're not we we just don't have a
[28:41] situation where all of a sudden daycare
[28:43] prices are going to come down, and we've
[28:45] heard from people, and I hear it from
[28:46] people uh in in Brooklyn when I'm
[28:49] talking to people. It's the daycare
[28:51] expense is a very big expense for
[28:52] people.
[28:53] They mention it as like kind of the
[28:55] number one thing. They don't know what
[28:56] to do. They're kind of trapped. And so
[28:58] when you mention housing prices are
[28:59] coming down,
[29:01] the ironic thing of that is
[29:03] that's not what rents are doing in
[29:05] apartment buildings in the cities in New
[29:06] York. Maybe it's happening in certain
[29:08] parts of the country. Maybe more supply
[29:10] is coming on. But for people that are
[29:11] trapped in their apartments or trapped
[29:13] in where they are, I I just don't see
[29:16] how house prices coming down by 30 basis
[29:18] points or 1% changes their life unless
[29:21] they get up and move. And you know what?
[29:23] If you got to get up and move, you're
[29:24] paying for the moving cost and all these
[29:26] other things. It's just not like you're
[29:27] saving any money.
[29:29] Let's talk about Bitcoin. You sent me
[29:31] this great chart that basically shows
[29:33] Fed funds rate rising, Fed fund rate
[29:36] falling or or holding, and then the
[29:38] positive real versus negative real
[29:41] return here.
[29:42] What is this showing us? What's your
[29:44] takeaway from this? I see plus 247%
[29:47] which obviously people get excited
[29:48] about.
[29:50] So there's really two things. Let's go
[29:52] back to the AI side.
[29:54] Uh
[29:55] I have said repeatedly I think Bitcoin
[29:57] is the only quote-unquote thing built on
[29:59] code that is safe from the destruction
[30:02] of AI because it has no competitor.
[30:04] Meaning
[30:05] it's not a business. It doesn't have
[30:07] fundamentals. There's no way to disrupt
[30:10] it.
[30:12] We're at that agentic side. So the
[30:14] network effects are going to kick in. I
[30:16] want to watch Ethereum as the major kind
[30:18] of signal. And for people watching, I'm
[30:20] giving you not only a bullish sign, but
[30:22] I'm giving you a timing sign. The
[30:23] catalyst is now.
[30:25] Um and now I'll get to that point, but I
[30:27] want to make sure I give you the
[30:28] structural issue on on what I think is
[30:30] happening. We showed and talked about
[30:32] and everyone saw the chart of how
[30:34] Bitcoin was very correlated to software.
[30:36] Which it should be. It at the end of the
[30:38] day is built on code. It's a growth
[30:40] asset. It's something that people think
[30:42] in the future will be worth a lot more
[30:43] money. It obviously has a scarcity side,
[30:46] which let's leave that alone for a
[30:47] second. Uh but it is software. So, it
[30:50] was correlated. Well, this week will be
[30:52] the biggest week of Bitcoin over
[30:56] software. We have finally broken the
[30:58] correlation. Uh and this started last
[31:01] week, but the correlation between
[31:03] software and Bitcoin has broken out. So,
[31:06] when we were seeing software puke during
[31:08] the first 2 months of the year, Bitcoin
[31:10] was going down with it. That's not
[31:12] happening. Bitcoin is starting to trade
[31:13] a little bit more now like a risk asset.
[31:17] Meaning it followed the S&P. Software
[31:19] did not follow the S&P. The credit
[31:21] situation, the private credit names, uh
[31:23] equities have not bounced at all, and
[31:25] you're still getting redemptions there.
[31:27] So, what I put together was just for
[31:29] people to see, and I'll show this on the
[31:31] video.
[31:32] Uh
[31:33] if you break Bitcoin into those four
[31:35] sides, so you start with 3-month real
[31:37] yields. So, 3-month rates are 366.
[31:41] Headline inflation is now 330. So, we've
[31:43] taken it down to about 40 basis points.
[31:46] Meaning we have rates 40 basis points
[31:49] above.
[31:51] The majority of the returns,
[31:53] not the majority, over 100% of all of
[31:56] the Bitcoin returns since its launch in
[31:58] 2010, but also if you break it down by
[32:00] 5-year increments, in every 5-year
[32:02] increment, the best time to invest in
[32:05] Bitcoin where you get over 100% of the
[32:07] returns
[32:08] is when the Fed is either on hold or
[32:11] cutting combined with negative real
[32:14] yields.
[32:15] Now, remember, the first part of 2010 to
[32:18] 2019, we had QE going on. We had fairly,
[32:22] you know, moderate inflation, but if you
[32:24] have zero yields or 3-month bills around
[32:27] zero yields, you're obviously going to
[32:28] get huge returns. So, that's what this
[32:31] is about, but I also said this is from
[32:33] 2019 to 25, this is from 15 to 19, and
[32:37] this is from 10 to 15. It doesn't really
[32:39] matter. It's all the same.
[32:42] This is the point that you want to be
[32:43] looking at it because when we get to the
[32:45] next CPI number,
[32:47] I think what's rolling off is a point
[32:49] one, meaning last year the
[32:51] month-to-month was about point one.
[32:53] We'll be replacing that again with
[32:54] something close to one, which means
[32:57] headline CPI will be above
[33:00] uh
[33:00] the three-month rate as of next month.
[33:02] So there's your catalyst. We'll be
[33:04] entering the regime if you want to call
[33:06] it of the Fed on hold or easing with
[33:08] inflation up above yields. So negative
[33:10] real yields. But one more thing on the
[33:12] technical side, the weekly uh
[33:15] MACD
[33:17] is crossing this week. So when you put
[33:19] it all together, um I've started again.
[33:21] I've I tried to buy when we were up
[33:23] close to 100. I was buying some above
[33:25] 100.
[33:27] Uh I am reducing a little bit of some of
[33:29] my memory names and I'm in taking that
[33:31] money moving it in, but I'm also moving
[33:32] money out of money markets now. Moving
[33:34] it into Bitcoin because I think we've
[33:36] hit a point where uh you're going to
[33:38] start to see a break in correlation and
[33:40] I think people are going to start to
[33:41] focus on it as a scarcity asset. Just
[33:43] one more thing, one of the conversations
[33:46] that is starting to build rapidly.
[33:48] Uh and I'm not going to go through all
[33:50] of the details, but maybe you and I can
[33:52] get Marco Papic on uh soon to talk about
[33:55] something he mentioned on a podcast he
[33:56] did.
[33:57] But you have to start to think about the
[34:00] US position with the dollar. Um
[34:02] obviously this war did not work out the
[34:05] way that I think the administration
[34:07] thought. Whatever is happening with the
[34:09] Strait of Hormuz, one thing is certain,
[34:11] the rest of the world did not come to
[34:13] the US side in this.
[34:15] Uh and in particular now what's going on
[34:17] in Taiwan,
[34:18] uh with elections over there and who's
[34:21] starting to visit China,
[34:24] there's a growing fear that maybe the US
[34:26] dollar will be under pressure more as
[34:29] the end result of this with higher
[34:31] inflation, higher energy prices to go,
[34:33] an unstable situation in the Middle
[34:35] East, this taxation thing which is, you
[34:38] know, the Iran is seems to be as part of
[34:41] their program is taxing people using the
[34:44] straight. This is a very weird
[34:46] situation, but I think in the end,
[34:48] you're going to have it. And one final
[34:49] point,
[34:51] I'm concerned about inflation happening
[34:53] in emerging markets at a much bigger
[34:55] rate than happens in the US. And if
[34:57] that's happening, I think you're going
[34:58] to have some countries of the world in
[35:00] particular that are going to be looking
[35:02] for ways to hedge against inflation.
[35:04] Remember at the end of the day, if
[35:06] inflation is going higher in certain
[35:08] parts of the world and we have an
[35:09] unstable environment, I think the
[35:10] attractiveness in Bitcoin from
[35:12] devaluations in certain countries
[35:15] is going to grow as the thing. I think
[35:17] you're going to have more and more
[35:18] people talking about Bitcoin over the
[35:19] course of the next 3 to 6 months.
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[37:43] out today.
[37:45] I do think that a lot of people get
[37:46] confused when it's like, Bitcoin can go
[37:48] up because of inflation, Bitcoin can
[37:50] also be valuable if there's deflation
[37:52] from AI. And one of the things that's
[37:53] helped me is understanding like, there's
[37:55] different people who buy Bitcoin for
[37:56] different reasons. Some investors are
[37:59] very focused on global liquidity. Other
[38:01] investors are very focused on digital
[38:03] disruption, and two things can be true
[38:05] at the same time. Can you elaborate a
[38:07] little bit on how you think about those
[38:08] different groups and why it seems like
[38:11] Bitcoin can win in two different
[38:13] environments?
[38:15] Well, the common thread between them,
[38:16] and I say this all the time, the one
[38:18] thing I know with all human beings on
[38:20] the planet, no matter where they live,
[38:22] which is the same.
[38:23] They all have um
[38:25] some form of greed.
[38:27] Uh I think in the face of people hiding
[38:30] their money or protecting against
[38:32] devaluation,
[38:33] that may not sound like greed to people,
[38:35] but
[38:37] it is. If you can put your money in
[38:38] something that's keeping its value, then
[38:40] everything else is going down in value.
[38:42] So, it's a reverse side of greed, but I
[38:44] think more and more people have to think
[38:46] about devaluing currencies
[38:49] in a world where, okay, we need that. On
[38:51] the flip side, I think in the US in
[38:53] particular,
[38:54] and really around the globe, the
[38:56] acceptance of Bitcoin, and I asked you
[38:57] about this, you know, a a few episodes
[38:59] ago, just to talk about the difference
[39:01] in the way people perceive Bitcoin from
[39:02] the institutional side today from where
[39:05] it was 3 years ago or even 6 years ago,
[39:07] when you would get thrown out of offices
[39:09] immediately when you walked in to talk
[39:10] about it. Well, just like Bitcoin has
[39:13] matured, so has Anthony Pompliano. He's
[39:15] older, he's more mature, he's more
[39:16] involved in the business world. He's got
[39:18] a tie on every day. Allegedly. There's
[39:20] no hoodies, there's no anything. So,
[39:21] you've actually uh
[39:23] gone with Bitcoin at the exact same
[39:25] time. I just think we're at a different
[39:27] stance, and when we get through it, the
[39:29] reason I have my stepfather with an
[39:31] allocation in it, and I've told him, I
[39:33] just don't think growth assets are where
[39:34] you want to be ever again because of AI.
[39:37] People still need to make returns,
[39:39] particularly if they're going to live
[39:40] longer from AI, and that gets back into
[39:42] the longevity side, and you need to
[39:44] produce returns over the course of the
[39:46] next decade. What'll happen is when
[39:49] Bitcoin does trade higher. And this is
[39:50] the thing people should go, I've
[39:52] believed this, I still believe it.
[39:54] We are now in a vacuum where there are
[39:55] almost no assets built on code that are
[39:58] going higher. Almost none.
[40:00] Not the hyperscalers, not the software
[40:02] names. The only names going higher are
[40:05] semiconductor names, which {quote}
[40:06] {unquote} are cyclical, meaning at some
[40:08] point we'll have enough compute. I don't
[40:10] think it's going to happen for a while,
[40:11] but at some point we will. At some point
[40:13] we'll come up with efficiency gains. At
[40:14] some point we'll come up with cures for
[40:17] everything related to energy and
[40:18] everything related to commodities. We'll
[40:20] have humanoids. The only thing that I
[40:22] can say with certainty is people are
[40:24] still going to need to in their mind
[40:26] make more money in the course of the
[40:27] next 5 years. And I think once Bitcoin
[40:29] trades higher this time, this is the
[40:31] move that to me is about AI disruption.
[40:34] It is the reverse of what's happening to
[40:35] software. So, I always let the market
[40:38] tell me. I can sit here with you guys
[40:40] and say that I made X right and I made X
[40:42] wrong. So, I've been right on most of
[40:44] the commodity names, the power names,
[40:45] the semi names. And now I've been wrong
[40:47] on Palantir. I've been wrong on Bitcoin.
[40:49] I still think those two are going to do
[40:50] well. But when Bitcoin breaks away from
[40:52] software, you have to pay attention.
[40:55] That is the thing I've learned about is
[40:56] let the market tell me when something
[40:57] different is going on. The world is
[41:00] absolutely more unstable than it was
[41:02] February 27th. There is no question
[41:04] about that. We have less certainty.
[41:06] We're going to have energy hoarding
[41:07] around the globe. We need to figure out
[41:09] ways to solve the problem, not be
[41:10] dependent on the rest of the world. I
[41:12] just think Bitcoin right now you have to
[41:14] watch it. And if we start to trade
[41:16] higher, and I'll give everyone a level.
[41:18] If we trade above 76,000, and at the
[41:20] same time we see Ethereum above 2400,
[41:24] I believe that is the beginning of a
[41:25] move that will be sustainable this year
[41:28] because I don't think we're going to
[41:29] have a recession. I think inflation is
[41:31] going to stay elevated, and I think
[41:32] people are going to need to find
[41:34] something that is making money in a
[41:35] world where the S&P is not moving
[41:37] anywhere.
[41:38] Bitcoin volatility used to be 80-90 vol
[41:42] a couple years ago. It is now compressed
[41:44] to like 35-40 ish. Um Bitcoin drew down
[41:48] 50% instead of drawing down, you know,
[41:50] 85%. Uh I think there's some people who
[41:52] say, "Well, if volatility got cut in
[41:54] half and the bear market got cut in
[41:55] half, then that kind of makes sense." Uh
[41:57] in terms of the drawdown.
[41:59] What I'm maybe more interested in is
[42:01] usually those bear markets were 18
[42:04] months, maybe, you know, 12 plus months.
[42:06] If you look at, you know, 2021, we
[42:07] peaked in November. 2022, November was
[42:11] the bottom of the capitulation. so kind
[42:12] of a full 12 months.
[42:15] We are now about 6 months from the peak
[42:18] of Bitcoin, give or take a couple of
[42:19] weeks.
[42:20] Should we think of these bear markets is
[42:23] also from a timeline being shorter as
[42:25] well? If you get a compression of
[42:27] volatility, do timelines kind of
[42:28] accelerate?
[42:32] Yes and no. Um again, I I
[42:36] I mean, I hate to bring this back to
[42:37] software, but when you have a chart that
[42:39] is a direct overlay for 5 years, meaning
[42:43] the movement in software was the same as
[42:44] the movement in Bitcoin,
[42:46] I
[42:48] I I think what we're going to have is
[42:50] rather than call them bear markets and
[42:52] just like get in this I'm I've never
[42:54] been a big fan of this bear market bull
[42:56] market thing, especially when we're at
[42:58] all-time highs like at some point in
[43:00] there. It just seems like, okay, they go
[43:03] up and then the normal course is at some
[43:05] point uh people don't invest as much as
[43:07] they have. I do think people have given
[43:09] up on Bitcoin in terms of the people I
[43:11] listen to on most podcasts. It's very
[43:13] hard. People are just so frustrated to
[43:14] to go through. Um there's a
[43:17] psychological part that takes time. I do
[43:19] think when you're at a 30 or four vol,
[43:20] that is a big difference from 80 or 90.
[43:23] So, you are talking about a world that
[43:25] time compresses as well. Uh I think when
[43:27] things move, they're going to move
[43:28] faster than they've ever moved. That's
[43:30] what we've seen with software. When they
[43:32] fall, they don't fall a little bit, they
[43:34] fall 10 to 20%. it goes very, very
[43:37] quickly. And so, I think that is a
[43:38] trapdoor feeling. There's just I just
[43:41] don't think in a world of uncertainty
[43:43] around AI people know what to do. And
[43:45] so, it doesn't take much. We're getting
[43:46] into earnings, which we haven't talked
[43:48] about. Those are going to start next
[43:49] week.
[43:50] When we start getting into the software
[43:51] companies, one of the most dangerous
[43:53] things is I think people are like, well,
[43:55] when we get into the earnings, then
[43:56] finally software will be done.
[43:59] When stocks don't go up on good news,
[44:02] which is what's happened with um
[44:04] the software names cuz their earnings
[44:06] have been good.
[44:08] The question is, when they show any
[44:10] signs of AI showing up in their numbers,
[44:13] that means they're going to get
[44:14] pummeled.
[44:16] If somehow or another, they can actually
[44:18] go up on bad news, then that would mean
[44:20] that we've hit kind of a uh
[44:22] you know, a a static point. I just don't
[44:25] think that's going to happen because I
[44:27] think people still,
[44:28] you know, and and again, most people
[44:30] that have software in their ETFs are out
[44:33] there saying, this is an overreaction.
[44:36] I think there's too many people that are
[44:37] hoping that this is an overreaction. I
[44:39] don't think it is.
[44:41] The IRGC
[44:43] is reportedly, you know, the Iran, uh
[44:46] reportedly asking to get paid a toll of
[44:49] $1 per barrel of oil that goes through
[44:51] the strait. And they want to get paid in
[44:53] Bitcoin, according to the Financial
[44:54] Times. I do not know if that's true or
[44:56] not, but if it is true, what are the
[44:57] ramifications?
[45:00] Again, I think it's just another sign
[45:01] that in this world that we're going
[45:03] into,
[45:04] uh
[45:05] the dollar is not being thought of in
[45:07] the same way that it was, and people
[45:08] don't want to be uh connected to the
[45:11] dollar. It doesn't have the same meaning
[45:12] that it did. You can't separate, okay,
[45:16] I'm going to make a speech and say
[45:17] NATO's done.
[45:19] You can't say that when Taiwan is
[45:21] dependent on the US protecting them
[45:24] against China, and then you have a
[45:26] leader in Taiwan that's running, and is
[45:29] going to visit China.
[45:32] Part of that reason is the fact that,
[45:33] hey, people of the world, forget the
[45:35] politicians who are just doing things.
[45:37] That is a representation of how the
[45:39] politics of the world are changing. That
[45:41] people don't see the US the same way
[45:44] they did. And whether or not, you know,
[45:45] people watching this want to hear that,
[45:47] that's just the reality of the way the
[45:49] masses are thinking. And I think the
[45:51] Bitcoin sign shows two things. One, it
[45:54] is a representation of the dollar. I
[45:55] think if the dollar is weakening,
[45:58] which would absolutely be the case if
[45:59] inflation's at higher levels, and you
[46:01] have most countries around the world
[46:02] raising rates and at the same time the
[46:03] dollar is is is falling. If the dollar
[46:06] is falling, I think it's a
[46:07] representation of Bitcoin being accepted
[46:09] again as this neutral place rather than
[46:12] a reserve currency status. I just think
[46:14] it's being viewed as a neutral
[46:17] situation. In the same way, they also
[46:19] said they would take payment in yuan.
[46:22] So, it's not like they're exclusively
[46:23] saying Bitcoin. Again, I think it's just
[46:25] a representation of how do we not get
[46:27] trapped in this situation of the US can
[46:30] do whatever it wants and are we going to
[46:33] be thought of as a group? And I I I just
[46:35] think it's changed over the course of
[46:37] the last 6 weeks.
[46:39] Is there anything that you are looking
[46:41] at um
[46:42] that would change your mind in terms of
[46:44] your current view of the scarcity with
[46:46] AI, Bitcoin? Like is there a data point,
[46:49] a development, a government
[46:51] announcement, anything that you think
[46:53] would be the the trigger point where
[46:54] you'd say, "Hey, you know, I think I
[46:56] need to evolve here."?
[46:58] Yep, 100% simplest thing I can possibly
[47:00] say.
[47:02] If I start running into people that are
[47:04] using AI every day, I'll start to change
[47:06] my view.
[47:07] I think the biggest problem is from a
[47:09] sentiment basis and the simplest thing I
[47:11] can say,
[47:13] nobody who talks about artificial
[47:16] intelligence
[47:18] has an intelligent thing to say about it
[47:21] if they're not using it every day.
[47:23] To use it every day, just I mean, think
[47:26] about your situation. It changes so much
[47:28] on a daily basis. I'm blown away every
[47:30] day on something I'm able to do with it.
[47:33] And I say that with just honesty. I I
[47:36] don't think your kids, if you're
[47:38] watching, can possibly be prepared for
[47:40] the world without using it every single
[47:42] day and the schools don't want them to
[47:45] use it still at this point. So, if
[47:47] you're not using it, if you're trapped
[47:49] at a company that doesn't allow you to
[47:50] use it, that's not an excuse. So, I
[47:52] think this is one of those unique
[47:54] situations where, as I say, I always
[47:56] give credit to my father for this.
[47:58] Investing is not a game of being right.
[48:00] It's about trying to find situations
[48:02] where the risk-reward are positive in
[48:04] your favor, and you believe you're going
[48:06] to make a lot of money relative to the
[48:07] risk.
[48:08] Well, the number one driver of the odds
[48:10] on that
[48:11] are how crowded the situation is on your
[48:13] viewpoint.
[48:15] And if people aren't using AI every day,
[48:17] they really
[48:19] I I mean, they make sure that the odds
[48:20] are in the favor of people buying
[48:22] semiconductors, buying energy, buying
[48:23] all this stuff, because remember, it was
[48:24] only 6 months ago that people were
[48:26] absolutely publishing that this was a
[48:28] bubble, and they would never ever ever
[48:31] be able to build this much. So, I just
[48:33] don't think that this is going to be a
[48:35] situation where
[48:37] unless that changes, the odds are going
[48:39] to remain in the favor. So, for everyone
[48:40] listening, just remember,
[48:42] um Anthony asked a good question.
[48:44] The earnings are in your favor. All the
[48:46] stuff is in there. The thing that's not
[48:48] in your favor is that people don't use
[48:50] AI, so I don't think they have any idea
[48:52] about what Mythos is at this point.
[48:55] And when you're talking about use AI,
[48:57] just before all the trolls in the
[48:58] comments, you're not talking about using
[48:59] it as a chatbot. You're talking about
[49:01] using it agentically, CLIs, and the
[49:04] actual like underlying technology, not
[49:06] the chatbots, correct?
[49:08] Building stuff.
[49:09] And And anything that you want to build.
[49:11] Again, if you want to play fantasy
[49:13] football, I mean, we'll we'll get into a
[49:15] point somewhere in the summertime what I
[49:17] think people should be doing if this is
[49:18] something, and I know a lot of people
[49:19] spend time on this. I don't at all
[49:21] anymore.
[49:22] Uh but if I was going to basically be in
[49:24] a fantasy football league,
[49:26] I would already be out there doing all
[49:27] the work on all the analytics and
[49:29] connecting it using Perplexity computer,
[49:31] getting an API key for whatever data
[49:33] sources you have, and connecting it to
[49:34] it, and say, "Let's go through and
[49:36] figure out our draft for this year based
[49:37] on last year's data, and then
[49:39] incorporate the new news that comes in."
[49:41] Just to show that you're building
[49:42] something in there. And when I use the
[49:44] When I say the the word nobody's using
[49:47] it,
[49:47] out of 100 people that I run into in
[49:50] conversations, and again, I'm in a very,
[49:52] very um finite world for the most part
[49:55] in conversations. I'm talking to
[49:57] institutional investors, which for the
[49:59] most part went to the best schools in
[50:00] the country. They were for the most part
[50:03] the best students in the country. Uh
[50:06] they're not using Claude in the way that
[50:08] I would expect. So, if I start to see
[50:10] that change, and again, there's been an
[50:12] uptick for sure,
[50:13] but the uptick is about using it in some
[50:16] way, which is they're making it more
[50:17] software-like. Uh I think this is about
[50:20] building stuff, and until people get
[50:22] there, I just again, I don't think
[50:23] enough people are using it to change the
[50:25] odds on the equation, and that's why I
[50:26] say I think we're in still in the first
[50:28] inning of the agentic world. I know
[50:30] you've been uh cooking up a great video
[50:32] for Sunday. You you you got too many
[50:34] unique insights this week. So, what
[50:36] what's the video on Sunday going to be
[50:37] about?
[50:39] Uh a lot of it is going to be showing
[50:40] people um
[50:42] where the inflation data was before we
[50:44] got into the war and the likelihood that
[50:46] it's going to be higher, the changes
[50:47] that have happened since the war. I'm
[50:49] going to reiterate
[50:51] the physical upgrade, the the scarcity
[50:54] side and go through. Uh I'll show people
[50:56] again my model portfolio and a lot of
[50:59] the subscribers that have gone on have
[51:00] been great. Uh I'm continuing to up
[51:03] things on there. My goal was
[51:05] two things. Help people feel empowered
[51:07] by their ability to move their money
[51:09] into investments that they can make
[51:10] money on, for traders to be able to find
[51:12] positions uh in names that are going to
[51:15] go higher, to make sure they focus their
[51:16] attention on commodities extensively and
[51:19] support the video on the weekend, and
[51:21] even though some of the people can't
[51:22] afford to the subscriber and I run into
[51:25] those people all the time in terms of uh
[51:27] chatting with them.
[51:28] The main reality is you're going to get
[51:30] a lot from the weekly videos if it's
[51:32] just staying up to speed on things. Uh
[51:33] you don't have to pay for the subscriber
[51:35] list, but for the subscriber list, you
[51:37] are getting thematic ideas, you're
[51:39] getting the names, you're getting the
[51:40] list, you're getting technical updates,
[51:42] and anything new that happens on the
[51:44] commodity, the semi side, the optical
[51:46] fiber side, or anything that pops out. I
[51:48] will cover some of the biotech side this
[51:50] week in terms of pharmaceuticals.
[51:52] There's just a variety of information
[51:54] that I'm trying to get out to people.
[51:56] I'm uh I'm excited to watch. I watch
[51:57] every Sunday. And anyone who watches
[51:59] this, you should go say thank you to
[52:00] Jordy. You should go to his YouTube
[52:02] channel, go to Jordy Visser YouTube on
[52:04] Google, and uh hit the subscribe button.
[52:06] That's like the thank you. You send him
[52:07] like a digital, you know, kiss every
[52:09] Sunday morning. So, he gets very
[52:10] excited. Um look at look at look at his
[52:13] reaction. See?
[52:15] Yeah. And for people who want to go If
[52:17] you've never seen the subscriber side
[52:19] since uh the one thing I haven't done
[52:20] well is create a website yet for Visser
[52:23] Labs that directs people to all the
[52:25] places that I am, cuz I am everywhere
[52:28] all the time. Uh if you go to
[52:30] 22vai.research.com,
[52:33] um that's where my subscriber stuff is.
[52:35] 22v
[52:37] ai.research.com.
[52:39] Amazing. Jordy, thank you. We'll do it
[52:40] again next Friday.
[52:42] Saturday.
[52:42] >> Thanks, bud. I'll be back in New York
[52:43] next week. Thanks, Jordy. We'll do next
[52:45] Saturday.