Is Bitcoin About to Shock Everyone in Q4?

[0:00] I think most of what's driving crypto right now is a combination of new players coming in. This is what a bull market is about. And you're right, FOMO is going to start to kick in very, very soon. I said before when Bitcoin got above 82,000, that was the confirmation [music] of the bull trend. I think we're in that. The fundamental side's getting stronger and stronger by the day. I I think we're at a point where this stuff is about to [music] kind of take off, particularly with what happened today with the What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this one, we're going to talk
[0:30] about what's going on in the macro world. Why are people so fearful when the data actually says you should be bullish? What's going on in AI? Why is the rise of personal AI assistance very bullish for token consumption or the big model labs actually coming under pressure or not? Jord and I disagree and then we agree on a big topic that I think you're going to enjoy. And then we talk about crypto, public equities, and what he sees going on in people's portfolios, how the end of the year should go, where we're going next year, and maybe he even gives a little bit of alpha, something he calls the micron moment, which I think that all of you will be very interested in. Here's my
[1:00] latest conversation with Jordi Visser. All right, Jordy, it seems like every single person I talk to from the traditional world, they are freaking out about macro factors. They're saying interest rates are going up, oil's at 100, the 10-year keeps going higher. They are so worried that the big crash, the Michael Bur moment is coming. I don't get the sense that you agree. I actually think it's stupid. Podcast over. I I mean, I've posted an X a bunch about this this week. I did a
[1:30] subscriber video and I had like 25 slides of of why this is just add it to the list of doomer stuff that comes out. uh tariffs and the war and oil's going to infinity and all of these things. So this is the way the economy works. We have a very diverse economy in the US. We have a diverse stock market. Theoretically, we have 500 names in the S&P 500.
[2:00] Rates mattered a lot before the great financial crisis. They mattered a lot into the great financial crisis because the economy was built on autos, housing. Um that's why we created things like the leading economic indicators. We have what's called financial conditions index. Everything changed after the great financial crisis. So the first thing about rates are everyone's like we're at 20-year highs for rates. Well, let's just go back to what that means. That means by definition rates just before the great financial crisis. I'm
[2:31] not sure anyone got the memo, but to save us from the great financial crisis, they had to move rates to zero and then we stayed at zero for a long time to get us out of the problem. So really what's happened to rates is they've normalized. Nominal GDP is six and change percent. Historically 10ear rates should be 200 basis points above. Now let's say it's about it. That changed in 1997. So let's say it just goes to even. We're still cheap relative to nominal GDP. Now, that
[3:02] matters because GDP is growing at six and a half percent. Theoretically, if you just take what that is, that means you'd have to have rates above it to where it would be difficult to make money if that's kind of how much money you can make investing wise or transaction-wise, business-wise. >> But that's not the case. So, with inside the S&P 500 are a lot of zombie companies. I mean, I hate to say it, but home builders don't make much money these days. Auto companies, Ford, GM, >> is that stuff just interest rate driven,
[3:33] or do you think that is like a structural change in the market and home builders, as an example, are going to have a tough time for the next 20 years? >> I think home builders are going to have a tough time for ever. Um, I think the economy is changing. I think demographics are changing. I think the way people view um mobilization having the flexibility of moving from state to state, country to country, that's been a change with the younger generation for some time. The old I go to college, I get a job, I buy a house after I, you
[4:05] know, I have kids and then I stay there for 30, 40 years. That doesn't exist anymore. And so, we don't have enough housing in the country. So, do I think there'll be more apartments and things like that? Yeah. Do I think Airbnb will be? Yeah, I think all of those things will happen. But to compare the economy, and this is the best way to do it, and this is what I'm including in this week's video. If you take the revenue for Micron and Nvidia in 2015, so 11 years ago, >> and you compare that to Ford, GM, and the Homebuilders, you're talking about Ford, GM, and the
[4:35] Homebuilders being like almost 20 times the size of the annual revenue for Micron, Nvidia. And now you fast forward, Micron and Nvidia alone have more than those those the homebuilders plus Ford and and GM. But even worse than that, the expectations of revenue growth for the next year for Nvidia are almost the entire size of the revenue that will be generated. We just have a completely different economy. And so when people roll this stuff out, once it starts
[5:05] with, oh, every time this has happened over the past 50 years, X happens. This is not the same economy. And I'll just as as both being sports fans, they changed the rules in the NFL. You know, you used to be able to use stick them on your hands to, you know, grab intercept the ball. You could hold on to someone, you wouldn't let go. A lot of different rules. You can't touch anyone in the NFL anymore. You can't touch the quarterback. Is it fair to compare stats of the 1970s and 80s to today? Of course not. But somehow or another, macro
[5:35] people that are in their 50s that never touch AI, and that's my big beef is that if you actually used AI and you saw where things were going, you actually saw the productivity gains, you'd recognize that the economy's changed. So that's why whether it's oil, whether it's rates, it's not the same economy as before 2007. And that's because of the iPhone. >> Do are you aware of any measurement that basically looks at uh sector-based dollar flows? So like, you know, there's capital flows. people pay attention to macro in terms of uh liquidity cycles and things like that. But it's a very interesting way to think about okay how
[6:06] much aggregate dollars are going towards home builders and the revenue and profit that's growing there versus maybe some of these other sectors and and the reason I immediately am intrigued by that is it's not just that oh Micron and Nvidia were low and now they're high. It's that they're actually accelerating. And so if you look at this not as a static thing but a dynamic trend they should pull away very aggressively here and then the question becomes okay well what are the sectors that are getting hammered you mentioned housing and car
[6:37] manufacturing but I don't know I could probably think of very quickly 10 or 12 you know different types of businesses that are all going to be in somewhat of a static you know um kind of environment going forward >> I mean there's a huge opportunity to just take capital out of those sectors >> Yep. and rotate them over and almost indiscriminate of names. It is just literally where is the momentum and growth coming from like a Buffett style approach. I don't think that buying things for less than they're worth is ever going to go out of
[7:07] style, but just like buying quote unquote good, strong, cash flowing businesses feels like that type of value investor may have a tough time going forward. >> So, let's go back to 2015. So, the other thing that I did is, and let's take it back to the iPhone. So, when the iPhone, believe it or not, when the iPhone came out, remember that was at the end of a 7-year bare market in technology. So, we had the dot bubble and it took 7 years all the way into the great financial crisis to basically get back to where we
[7:38] were at that time. Technology was about 13% of the S&P 500. And this is where your question on revenue so people understand you can have a lot of revenue in a sector but if it's not growing the S&P 500 is not going to value it but S&P 500 does care about the revenues but it cares about the growth and right now the S&P 500 if you take technology sector which is going to include software and semis you add in basically companies like Netflix and uh
[8:11] Google and Meta and Amazon and Tesla because they're technology companies, but they're in other sectors. You're up to 56% of the S&P 500 now. 56. Wow. >> So, we've already hurt all of these others. This is what gets into the other thing people are talking about. So, >> there's this new highs, new lows, and the breath. The breath is horrible. Okay, let's go through what this means. If seven companies are winning and the tech side is now 56%. Whenever tech is
[8:41] dominating, these companies are the breath is going to be bad by definition. But if you move rates higher, tech is insensitive to rates. And this is the other mistake people are making. Now, the doomers will tell you that, "Oh my god, we need capital and this is borrowing money." And I've said repeatedly on everything I speak at, there is absolutely no sensitivity for rates in the AI trade. None. You can move it up a lot. If compute prices don't come down, Nvidia, it just doesn't matter. I mean, I know it's hard for
[9:12] people to believe that, but the reality is the margins for Micron, they just released earnings this week, 87%. There is so much margin in what Anthropic does and what OpenAI does that they're selling compute at prices because people need it. It's intelligence. It's incredible. They need it. >> I may disagree with some of this. >> Okay. Well, let's let's finish the the statement first. So when you look at newo new highs and new lows and everyone goes look at all the new lows. You know what the new lows are in? Consumer staples. >> True. >> Utilities, real estate, you know what
[9:43] those names are? They're all interest rate sensitive. They all they have no benefit from the AI situation cuz AI is driving rates higher. It's hurting these groups. And that's why they're trading at 52- week lows because who wants to own a consumer staples and a utility when they're basically just synthetic bond positions when bond rates are going higher? I agree that the rate sensitive businesses 100% are under pressure, going to be under pressure until things change. Anyone who disagrees with that, I think that that's actually a uh
[10:14] agreement point between the like doomers and the AI folks is there's a certain part of the economy if rates go up, they're going to get hurt on tech, the individual businesses, I agree. I do think though there's a connection between rates going up and the top in November of 2021 as an example. So the Fed comes out and says, "Hey, we are going to start raising rates." They don't do it till March of 22, but that pretty much marked the top. If you go back to 200 uh 2000 kind of bubble, right? Same thing. Rates, they kind of
[10:44] forecast, hey, we're going to raise rates, market turns over. So in a weird way, it doesn't impact the actual businesses, but on an overall like almost macro basis, when they say they're going to raise rates, usually that has marked some sort of top, which I think is what the doomers are kind of pulling back to. I think your point it sounds like is well rates are going up right now and the market is going up too which kind of like violates that that viewpoint. So put that aside for one second. I am um I went from anthropic
[11:14] open AI etc being the best businesses in the world to now I think I'm in the camp of there's an increasing chance that they are going to be way underperform what people think and there are three data points I'd love your reaction to. First is token consumption per customer seems to have exploded and now is starting to turn over in a number of things. We see this in the ramp AI index spending is down. We also see this in a number of these kind of metrics that look at you know whether it's open router or whatever that that that's coming down. We also know uh Grock
[11:45] recently released their latest uh model and they showed a chart of performance and price. Everything is getting better performance and price is coming down. So it looks like everything's kind of diving down into the right. Well, if you take those two numbers, number of tokens processed times price of token, that is ultimately the revenue of the model labs. So talking to Dan Ives this week and I said, look, if those two numbers are both coming down anthropic, like the latest charts are just kind of showing slight growth, but to like plateau revenue. And so as
[12:15] businesses realize like maybe we need to own more of this ourselves and not just outsource everything to these two companies. It feels like there's some pressure there. Now the overall market is growing maybe there's like breath in AI where like the revenue flows but could there be weakness in the model labs and maybe some pressure of them get actually getting public yet the AI trade more broadly continues and so like you're almost getting like a reallocation of where value is acrewing. >> So let me I'm going to disagree with a lot of what you said. Yes, >> but not the facts. Okay,
[12:46] >> so the the things you highlighted. >> Oh, great. Just call me dumb. [laughter] >> No, but you're falling into the trap of uh that most people get into, which is well, let's look at this data. Let's go through. So, let's let's >> save me, Jordy. No, when So, the first part of this year was about token maxing. Let's just throw tons of tokens inefficiently at everything and see what happens. >> Okay. Well, we knew that was going to end. So, when you look at the ramp index and all this stuff, >> the token cost will is deflationary. It's going to continue to come down. There's models now that 3 months ago
[13:17] from I mean even even open AI has the models from 3 months ago which are better today than 3 months ago are cheaper than they were back then. So everything is moving that way. So let's leave that alone. >> We've entered the agentic side. >> Mhm. >> The token numbers are going to explode. >> We are going to see So all we had were enterprise agents. >> Mhm. 8 billion people on the planet didn't use anything. Well, now Grock,
[13:47] Instinct, Muse are just starting. >> But how many of those So this is where I think the nuance is. How many of those use OpenAI or anthropic models? >> Well, no, no, no. Not so let me get to the end because there let's go what you said at the beginning. I am not some bull on open AI and anthropic. But >> are you a bear? >> No. At the But here's the thing. Do I think their growth rate has already passed the fastest point? Absolutely. So the conversation remember two months ago was they're they're on an annualized run rate which is still there philanthropic of 100 plus billion. Okay.
[14:18] >> Nice business. Like by the way I'm not uh I'm not saying I'm not jealous of having that business. >> Let's just get something straight for everyone who's like wants to fade these guys. The total revenue for this year that OpenAI and Anthropic will have at the end of this year will be greater than the entire software revenue. So let's let's just get something straight like these are the most profit the these are the fastest growing companies in the history. Anthropic was a $50 billion company. It's now a multi-t trillion in a year and a half. Like you can't fade
[14:49] what's gone on. Do I think they're going to get to a trillion dollars in revenue? Absolutely not. But do I think people are underestimating what the biotech companies want to use? What the nanotechnology companies want to use? What the everything in the physical science will pay for frontier intelligence? You're crazy if you think they're going to use cheaper models. Like in the hedge fund industry where I'm from, this has already happened. Like Jane Street, Millennium, they're all using Anthropic. So, everyone's crazy. But, but here's my thing is today's episode is brought to you by
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[16:51] I think everyone starts with I want to use AI. I think AI could be valuable. And so what you do is you outsource to what is the smartest thing I could use that's kind of off the shelf. And you go right to these guys. >> There is no way in hell that at Sylvia with less than 10 people on an engineering team. We are able to build better models that are more accurate than these trillion dollar companies for personal finance. and Jane Street can't figure out how to build a better model for their specific use case in terms of custom AI harnesses, data pipelines, all
[17:22] the model weights and and the training etc. And so what I think and again this is where uh we are now entering a world of uh I call jordy thinking probabilistic thinking >> of I can't say this with 100% truth but I know there's not zero >> I think that open anthropic for many businesses are the perfect on-ramp so you get this acceleration on a per customer basis and then the customer start to say well can we get better intelligence can we get cheaper intelligence they start to try to optimize that optimization point almost
[17:54] every CEO I talked to the private market is saying we are starting to do this internally. And so to me, what that means is their future growth is about how do we go get more of the people who do not currently use AI to get onboarded because they're almost like leaking their existing users. The per token usage is going down. So they have to go get new customers to replace the like leakage or the like retention almost to some degree. Does that make sense? >> Yeah. But this gets back into I the part I disagree with is for everything that you've said if I told you the most
[18:24] important point is that we're in the 1% >> right now of usage >> and that Jevans paradox is a real thing which I completely agree with. There's no way that open AI and anthropic don't continue to grow. So there's a difference between growing as fast as they did for the early inception and continuing to grow. As someone who >> I'm not saying they're not going to grow, by the way. I I agree that they're going to keep growing. It's just the nuance dynamics now agree >> are changing because you also have like Jev
[18:54] >> right shows up like like there there's a lot of stuff that are happening where uh you made a comment 3 months ago >> the easy money and AI is over. >> Yeah. >> We are now like I'm fully on board with that and I think that it's becoming very obvious you can't just be like the big model labs get all the money. >> Correct. And and that part I agree with the the thing the thing that as a user and using my son as like an example we both will crap on Gemini. >> I don't when the new model comes out well this is good. >> It makes mistakes that I have open AI
[19:26] and claude fix constantly. >> So I think people that use it all the time and that are scared of mistakes and hallucinations and things like that know the models that are more likely to do this. I think when you make the decision to go to open source and you go to these I I personally believe on my own experience, it better be for stuff that isn't super important. That's why I brought up the Jane Street and Millennium. I don't agree that all these models are even close to the same. I've
[19:56] used I I stopped my uh Open Claw and my Hermes because I was able to do things in Claude and Anthropic that or in in Claude and Open AI which were different. And then when Grockot came out and Muse came out and everything else, Muse is not as good a model anything close to what open but it doesn't need to be. It's just doing basic stuff for me. So I think we're saying the same thing. I just think we agree on this. >> I think the hardest thing for people to understand and the most important thing that I want to get across to people, you've heard Jeb's paradox. We're at that point right now. What
[20:27] happened the last two months may have been a air pocket on one way which is this token cost thing but we're entering a very very dangerous period now for the next year. >> The usage is going to skyrocket and we don't have enough compute. >> So this gets back to the other thing OpenAI and Anthropic own. I listened to the interview with the instinct founder. >> Did you listen to it? >> Yeah. Noah on uh invest like the best. Yeah. He specifically highlighted that
[20:57] he underestimated his compute needs. >> He said, I think he said 40% of his time is being spent trying to accumulate compute and he's having a hard time because he's growing 10% per day. And so he's like, "How do I project out? If I double my compute, you know, I basically use it all up in a couple weeks and then how do I kind of project how much I'm going to need?" >> So here's the scary thing. We're entering the hype the the the parabola of efficiency and compute as well with Vera Rubin. So Blackwells were great.
[21:27] You the efficiency of the chips. Well, now we're getting the Vera Rubin. Who owns all of that? The big guys do. >> I mean, it's the speculation between semi analysis and what I've heard on the all in pod is that open anthropic combined will own up to 50% of all the compute coming online. I mean, isn't that a monopoly or a duopoly of some sort on compute? And so, this is where I I don't think you can make the assumptions that they won't actually go
[21:57] up again sometime next year just because they have the compute, which means two things. Number one, they can service more people uh more companies. And number two, their models start getting better and better because you need more computing power to actually get to the level of the IQ that they eventually want to get to for the physical sciences. So um let's talk about the personal agents maybe as a uh an area where I think tokens are going to continue to expand. We now have just this past week um Robin Hood announced a bunch of agentic
[22:28] trading. We have uh OpenAI launched dots. We have uh Ryan Sirant launched an AI agent within his simple app which again is like a very applied AI type thing. We have Muse, which was already out, but now is going after small business. >> We have uh Noah, the founder of Instinct, who's basically come out and said they're doing over a billion dollars of transactions, 40% I think it's on travel, that gave a bunch of numbers in terms of what how what's going on, how they're doing it, growing
[22:58] 10% day overday. Uh with Sylvia, we announced now you can text it in a more agentic way, then have to go into a archaic dashboard and use it that way. And then I don't I've lost count. I we would spend an hour of me rattling off every single product launch that I saw from some net new agent that got released, including I don't know if you saw this one. There is one I don't want to say the name because I don't know how legit it is that you can start with the agent as a baby and raise it. [snorts]
[23:29] >> I I haven't heard this >> launch video was awesome. Looked cool. Hilarious. I'm sure they've got some pitch as to why that's better, but like we're we're [laughter] we're in banana land a little bit on the AI agents already. How are you evaluating personal agents? What are you using? And where do you think, you know, is there consolidation or like are you going to have 20 agents across 20 different use cases? >> Okay, so there's two parts to this and I want to make sure the second part everyone hears first um in terms of you getting back to it.
[24:00] Every day since I put Muse on my phone, I have bought more and more crypto every single day. >> Because Muse told you or because you just become more convinced that >> because this to me, so I I people have watched this together now for a while. Last year when I was frustrated by just like listening to people not understand the Micron story about token growth, the agent stuff with Muse and all of this, it just blows me away every day with more things that I can do with it.
[24:30] And so let me answer that part. I want to get to the crypto connection because I think if anyone should be demanding from their Fidelity, their Robin Hood, everything that they have the ability of at least thinking about this. I really do believe that we're entering something that is just breathtaking cryptoconnected to agents. So on the agent side, it started with Grockbot and that was a game changer for me. Now I use Grockbot more for the work stuff. I have one chief of staff who I go to when I want
[25:02] to have a meeting with the agents or I want to send off the agents. But underneath that chief of staff, I now have two middle management chief of staff. >> Uh-oh. Middle managers. Middle managers. Hey, pull up a chair. Let me tell you about automation. So I have one for AI, >> man. You capitalist pig. You going after the middle managers. Too much time in Morgan Stanley. So one one side is uh has got a an AI side. The other side has a crypto side. And I send them out to keep up on what's going on. What Muse did for me. And I think this
[25:35] is what people need to hear when they go Meta won. Meta didn't win anything. It's not even like there's there's [snorts] going to be so many personal AI and that's the big thing and that's why it matters so much is that when Apple comes out we're going to have a ton. And who do I think is going to be better at security? Apple or Meta. I'm I'm going to go with Apple. It's just my my guess. But regardless of that, Muse and all of them, if you haven't used them yet, I think you're missing the same way that when we talked about not understanding tokens, you're going to miss out on some
[26:06] activity to invest. I think with agents that my brain only goes one place which is there's no way for the current system to handle the speed and the ability to do things like this. It's just impossible. And I will give you one important thought process on this. So we've heard about agent swarms. So let's take the two parts of agents. The reason there's agent swarms now is the same reason that we have personal agents. We couldn't have personal agents unless we
[26:36] got to the point where we had agent swarms. Because at the end of the day, that's kind of what you're doing. You need to have enough IQ to be able to do all these different tasks, have the memory, have it, and agent swarms have the same thing. The reason this is important, the current system, when you go to wire money to someone, if you go to wire money to someone on a Friday at 3:00, it'll settle on Monday. Where's your money for the last two days? Where's it sitting? And I challenge anyone to actually know where their money is when they use a credit card to
[27:06] go buy something and it goes from your bank account to the merchant through the credit card. I keep hearing people tell me, "Well, Vis and Mastercard are going to be the winners in this." I'm like, "No, they're not. They have no chance. I I don't even know where this comes from." And this argument comes up all the time. the amount of steps between buying something and settling something. The longer it takes, even if it's 20 seconds versus one second, that's multiple times for an agent swarm to come in and steal the money along. You need every single part of it. So, you remember the cold wallet story, right?
[27:37] [snorts] Crypto is based on cryptography. Like, this is going to be a necessity to make sure that it's instant cuz that is the best defense on anything. If you're worried about someone robbing your house, but they will only rob it when you're not there, well, the best thing would be to go outside for a second, come back in. The longer you leave, you go on vacation, the higher the probability. I think people need to start understanding that the the the lineup of cryptography to AIS is not just about them wanting to do things fast. It's not just the cost. It is also the time of risk against agent swarms.
[28:10] And I think that's going to become more of a story. This is the reason why every time I use it, I'm like, "Oh my gosh, this is so obvious that number one, we didn't need crypto. We didn't need the tokens. We didn't need the altcoins. We needed the layer ones to kind of draw capital in to build out the infrastructure that was necessary. So, when you have the L1's growing and continuing to get bigger and bigger, well, that means the ecosystem is getting bigger. And as Michael Sailor says, the capital structure can now change because we actually have digital collateral. We have Bitcoin. We have
[28:40] Ethereum. So we have the programmable side but you need that thing that actually makes it well this is the use case and I said the same thing if you go back and look when Uber started Uber didn't start as a company in terms of the idea until the app store happened then they went oh we can do this so I think you're going to see innovation after innovation related to this so what I have spent my time on as someone who listens to so many podcasts a week [snorts] very seldom now do I listen to moonshots very seldom do I into any of
[29:11] these in >> they've been dominated by crypto now and not rah hoodie crypto I mean the functional use cases and different ways to value these because I am getting constantly I mean this has happened three times this week calls with hedge fund and ass and asset man let's just say asset managers tell me about why I should be investing in crypto These conversations never existed. When
[29:42] you and I talked, you gave me all the horror stories of walking into rooms. >> They are asking you in terms of I hear you talking about crypto and I disagree so convince me or they are saying I am interested. Help me better understand you know where to put the money that I want to invest. >> Yeah. The best analogy is um the door was closed and you had to pry it open. >> They're looking through the door. >> I see. they they're they're interested and the reason is and this is the >> this is the Wall Street FOMO building up. >> I I don't I so I think it is coming from
[30:14] from two directions. One is every day Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, City Bank, they're all involved in it. All of them. They're racing for tokenization. They're racing for stable coins and that's the key thing. But then there's another argument which is the connection of agents to crypto makes sense. Like that's the whole point is that there's an element of oh this makes sense. And the reason I'm so emphatic and pounding the table that this is so important >> is and I don't I don't know how to pronounce Ilia's last name from near
[30:44] >> but if you go back and listen to an interview with him in 2023 on a podcast called No Priors >> great podcast >> great podcast and but this was a very futuristic look of where we are today. So in 2023 if I said to you okay he did this interview it was only 6 months after Gen AI started chatbt was launched how could a guy have this much vision on the agentic world connecting to it literally that's what near that's what he was talking about how could he have that vision because he was one of the
[31:14] co-authors on the transformer paper that led to generative AI so there's two things about that so I'm a logical guy like I I look at things and go I like listening to this guy this is great his value as one of the transformer page co-authors when AI took over and people were paying hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars for humans. You don't think Ilia got a call and could have left near and gone there but he believes in this there there's a lot of elements for me as like a founder that I
[31:44] like listening to and getting to know the people. So I think if people go back and listen to that, forget investing in NER. Just go listen to the story and go listen to someone who believes agents have to be part of crypto back in so this was also when crypto was on its way down everything was breaking down. He was saying when agents are here that's when the connection will be. And literally what he said is they will be the economic actors of the future. And so that's why every day that I sit there I'm like oh I know what's happening now.
[32:15] And so if I get off the call, and this happened to me once this week, I'm meeting someone for breakfast coming up soon, has two portfolios, follows me in AI, he's a subscriber, he's been doing well, and he's got all these names, but then at the same point, he's got a lot of crypto, which he told me about. He's like, I don't need any more crypto. I still have stuff from 2021 and 2022. And that was an interesting thing because I remember hearing that after the do bubble. All the people that I knew that bought a lot of these things, they didn't put more money into it because they still had PTSD from what they went through. I think there's a a period here
[32:46] where the asset managers are looking to invest. I think most of what's driving crypto right now is a combination of new players coming in. This is what a bull market is about. And you're right, FOMO is going to start to kick in very, very soon. I said before when Bitcoin got above 82,000, that was the confirmation of the bull trend. I think we're in that. The fundamental side's getting stronger and stronger by the day. I I think we're at a point where this stuff is about to kind of take off, particularly with what happened today with the unemployment rate being lower
[33:17] than expected. If you take everything that happened this week from the rate picture and you look at it and you're like, David Zervos brought into the Fed or brought into the Treasury, he wants he's he's a very creative guy. Uh we're going to he's he's being brought in to help get long-term rates lower. They did another buyback, another, you know, treasury uh yield curve, treasury uh twitch, whatever you want to call it in terms of the twisting of the back end versus the front end. We got a lower than expected PCE core. Now we got an
[33:48] unemployment number that came in weaker than expected with an hourly earnings that came in weaker than expected. So maybe rates settle here. They don't have to go down, guys. They just need to not be a story where every day they go up. And I think we could be staring at a a position coming out of the midterms where people are like, "Why were we waiting? Earnings are just growing rapidly and we're entering earning season in two weeks." Today's episode is brought to you by Galaxy 1. A lot of people got their money working for them. But the question now, how hard is it working? Well, the folks over at Galaxy 1, they're taking a very different approach. Everyone earns 3.5% APY using
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[35:53] >> You ever gone to a high school football game >> many times >> and uh you see the the young men on the sidelines, fourth quarter comes, they start holding up the four fingers like this. >> Y >> you don't know this, but the uh the OG podcast viewers, every fourth quarter we go like this. You know why? >> Why? >> Cuz crypto loves the fourth quarter. It loves it. Like just like the high school football team's like, "We win the fourth quarter." Krypto's like, "We win the fourth quarter." It's October 3rd. You know, like you ever seen a bull right before he stampedes, he kind of digs his feet into the ground, throws up some
[36:24] dust. October 3rd. That's what the bulls do. [laughter] >> And then it's fourth quarter. Like here we go. I think it was over the summer that when it first when we had the seven sigma move that I reminded both the audience and you that the viewpoint for this year was that based on the work being done by institutional investors that when we came to the end of the year something very important happened. So this will match up with your fourth quarter thing but I think this one's the most important. It's for important for
[36:54] people to hear. This is my mindset. >> Jord is unbothered. He's just like get out of here with this fourth quarter course. Just give us a four. four year cycle I don't care about and this I don't care about but I do know this >> large allocators and decision makers make really important decisions for the following calendar year >> in the fourth quarter >> in the fourth quarter and the reason that's important and particularly in the final two months they get paid on performance which crystallizes sometime around that end of the you know and into the beginning of the year
[37:24] >> oh there's somebody out there they're up big right now they're selling and they're not going to touch their portfolio till December Exactly. And so if you want to get involved with crypto, they're doing their homework. The problem they're running into, I've been asked this many times. So what can I buy? And I go, well, you can either buy buy the, you know, the ETFs or the, you know, the DATs of the various ones or maybe there's five companies you public stocks you can buy. >> It's really hard, but they want to do it. So, I think that's where the L1
[37:54] start to become, you know, a >> they're not going to drive things, but they're there's going to be an underlying bid for these things that keeps the ecosystem grounded. And that means that the beta is going to continue to show up in the altcoins, but the beta is going to be driven not by the institutional managers until the tokenization starts to happen. That's why tokenization is so important. >> So, there's two uh two data points that I will uh I will share. Um, I think back in May or June, I tweeted much to the uh uh disappointment of all the AI bulls and I said it's going to be glorious
[38:25] when the AI profits rotate back into Bitcoin and I was trolling a little bit, but I do believe that, you know, a lot of the crypto gains went into AI, people continue, you got the momentum and now you're going to kind of see this rotation back. Um, it does feel like that's starting to happen a little bit. To your point, I don't think that the interest in AI is going away. I just think that people are becoming a little bit more interested in Bitcoin and crypto. So now you kind of have these two technologies. >> The second thing, uh, I am shocked right now. I believe Sylvia is the only public
[38:55] company that has AI and Bitcoin kind of married together. It's a it's a little bit of a weird way that we've done it. >> Y, >> I am very very shocked that maybe the only ones you could assign to are like a Coinbase or like a Robin Hood who have like crypto products and then they're like using AI, you know, in some form or fashion. But I feel like this is becoming somewhat of a more consensus view that these two technologies are going to benefit from each other and it's going to be there. One of my predictions for 2027 is you're going to start to see an assault of public markets where people they may be an AI,
[39:26] you know, related business. They're going to start trying to do crypto stuff. Crypto will do more AI. >> And so I think what investors are going to have to try to figure out is like where does the value acrew, right? So if you look at take maybe Coinbase and Robin Hood, Coinbase came from the crypto world, Robin Hood comes from the brokerage world. they kind of have ended up in this like, you know, war over who's going to be like the everything exchange. Both great businesses. I think both will do very well going forward, but they have kind of like the DNA of the company is a little bit different. And so if you were like, hey, I want to be more like 7030 crypto to AI, you
[39:56] probably would go and buy a Coinbase. If you want to be like 7030, you know, equities, then or AI, you'd go to like more Robin Hood. >> That I think is actually much harder for people to navigate. Again, going back to this like all the easy money's gone. >> Yep. If you're an institutional allocator and you're like, "Okay, cool. I believe in everything Jord's saying. Where do I go put my money, >> you're now almost getting like the the more intricate decisions?" And so, one, I think that uh similar to how we talked about like lawyers, advice will become more valuable than the action of just like filling out the documents.
[40:27] >> Your philosophy is going to become consensus. And now it is going to become much more about like what are the specific names? How do I think about portfolio construction? How do I think about onetime purchase versus dollar cost averaging? I mean, like very specific, you know, kind of tactical things. >> This is where uh so I'm and you and I haven't talked about this, but I'll I'll I'll bring in. So, because I have subscribers that want to invest in the 46 name index that I created, they want
[40:58] to >> around tokenization. >> Yeah. Well, it Yeah. Around it's really the crypto ecosystem. So, this is really, hey, agents are going to do things. Okay. This is the entire ecosystem that should benefit. And rather than you go out and pick five tokens, I think the beauty of the way I put it together is equal weight. It's got the L1's and then it's got a bunch of L2s, 46 names. Just uh you're not allowed to say this, but I have a uh report here. Um let me look to make sure I got this right. The Visceral Labs 46
[41:29] name index, which by the way, we got to get you a better name. [laughter] Visor Labs. It's like uh you know for for whatever people say about Trump good or bad the guy's good at branding and super intelligence probably is a better name. The Visser Labs 46 name index is up year to date 50%. Bitcoin is down 3.2% as of the close yesterday. >> So that I think gives a a pretty clear this is outperforming Bitcoin as a benchmark. >> And if you would have looked the prior year or you know when Bitcoin peaked, Bitcoin was outperforming and all of the
[41:59] altcoins were were underperforming. That's what makes this so important. It ties it back to AI. What I was going to say is I'm reaching out now to asset managers. So, anyone out there who's doing anything. I ran ETFs >> if you breathe. >> I ran ETFs at Morgan Stanley. I traded programs. I traded derivatives. The future is to give both individual investors and asset managers what they're going to be able to do within a year, which is some kind of tokenized way to do this agentically. This compares So, I'm going to set this up
[42:31] myself. I'm going to do this. Um, I'm also going to connect to API keys to be able to do the research on crypto. At this point, you should be able to turn everything into an investment dashboard that has the 46 name index. You trade it with a push of a button with agents. I'm going to do that on my own and I'm going to set it up. And I don't know if Robin Hood can do it yet. I don't know if Coinbase can do it yet. But anyone else out there, um, I reached out to Bill Barte. I'm I'm reaching out. anyone wants to come to me and work with me on
[43:01] this. I don't want to launch an ETF, but I do want my subscribers to have the ability of investing that way because that's the way the future is going to be. An agent can go out and do all 46 names, equal weight the whole thing, and then you have it done within seconds. We're at that point where it should be able to get done. The only nuance is there's 42 tokens and then there's four public stocks. So, in the world of the merging of tokenization, it's a race to see who can handle Jord's portfolio first. [snorts] >> Um, I like this idea. I do think this is
[43:32] where the world is going. Uh, I do not think it will happen as fast as everyone claims it will. And um I will uh introduce you to uh a couple lawyers uh because as we've gone down this path um >> there are a lot of very antiquated rules around how they will empower this to happen. >> And so uh I'm an investor in a company called Autopilot. They do something similar different but but similar. I think they've done a great job. Um you now are seeing the agentic trading e
[44:02] Toro, Robin Hood, Coinbase like they're all going into that. Um, public has this like describe something and it will then create an index for you kind of a custom index. Um, I think maybe you can kind of trade off of it um in the product. Super take we we recently talked about in terms of like you know I think snow's going to snow a lot in the mountain like how do I invest along that theme? Like this is definitely where the world is headed. >> What I think is maybe most interesting is twofold. Creating it and putting it
[44:33] on easy. how do people sell or rotate or that type of stuff I think is we just need to figure it out. I don't think people have really spent a lot of time there. >> And then the second thing is um the rules have to catch up with this type of investing because the rules are frankly situated for ETFs, mutual funds, like that stuff. This is the future. But like if I said to you, hey, you got to go become an RA to do this. You probably would be like, eh, I'm not interested. I don't know if you have to, right? But the platforms for sure, if
[45:05] they're going to empower this stuff, there are legal things that they need to do. We're entering a weird world where like if the agents are doing the trading, like are the agents regulated? You know, one of the things I've always talked about is uh in crypto back in the day, uh there's certain things that exchanges have to file with the SEC. Well, if it's decentralized, how does it file? And then like also how do you enforce the rules? So decentralization for exchanges is an interesting thing because regulators weren't like you're not even trying to
[45:36] be malicious just like how do we interface with each other. I think this is now coming in a weird way. What you're talking about is almost like a decentralized ETF. How do how does the regulators how do the rules interface? >> I don't think they have an answer yet. They're they're trying to figure it out but they don't have an answer. >> So here's what's going to happen a year from now. And I keep saying a year from now because my mindset is that we are at the micron moment as I call it where people just underestimate how fast this stuff goes. And if I'm right, uh,
[46:06] every wealth advisor, every uh, wealth management firm is going to be in a very very difficult position a year from now. their clients are going to start hearing about how people are making a lot of money in crypto and they're going to hear crypto and rather than crypto I want everyone to just think they're making money in tokens well stocks are going to be tokenized for sure now will they be the same way there's going to be a merging here but
[46:36] if people go well I I heard you know I heard Joe and Mary just made 30 times their money over here this is the weird part about if I'm right about what's happening and you have to Go back to the Micron example. Never in my time have I seen what I saw with my agentic portfolio infrastructure, which is I thought Micron would double. I thought it might triple 14 times. Now that was totally based on the earnings growth. >> I see the crypto volumes, the token volumes going through the roof because of tokenization and because of stable
[47:08] coin payments, >> because of AI agents. If it wasn't for agents, which will speed this process up to make it easier, I wouldn't be as optimistic on it. So, it started now and I think everyone listening who watches us regularly of which we have a goodiz audience. This is a problem you want to be ahead of both as an in personal investor, you want to start doing your research. This weekend when I go through, I will do another video on crypto plus my regular weekly video. I am going to highlight seven separate podcasts. I not only spoke to Ilyia at
[47:39] near I spoke to William Mgayar who you've had on he was amazing brilliant brilliant guy he's got a new book coming out it's going to take another 3 to 6 months I think for his book to come out you have to be on top of these guys Joseph Chalam or Shalom who was at BlackRock >> all over it they're all over it and they're telling you why to invest in it and they're telling you why this moment matters now and a lot of it has to do with the regulatory side but most of it has to do with the three of them saw this vision a long time ago playing out and they're
[48:09] all respectable people with different backgrounds. One traditional Wall Street, one Napster, one uh uh Google. Seriously, I mean, when I get a diversity of people that are very, very bright, and I'm going to be putting six podcasts from the three of them up this weekend, you got to go watch this stuff and be on top of it. Ladies and gentlemen, that's it. I appreciate all of you guys watching. We got a lot of new people who've been watching this lately. We appreciate you. Make sure you subscribe to the channel, tell your friends, text us to somebody, leave a funny comment for Jordy. The funniest ones to actually screenshot and send to
[48:39] him sometimes. It makes him laugh, think that we're all smart over here. Uh, make sure you go to YouTube, check out Jordy Visser. Just type in Jordy Visser. Jordy with an I. And hit subscribe there. That's the digital thank you to him doing such a great job every single week. And then go and check out Sylvia. Go to sylvia.com. Silvia.com if you want to use AI to better manage your finances and your portfolio. We've got a very interesting announcement coming out on Monday. Just a little alpha for all of you.