Japan, AI, & The Next Liquidity Shock For Bitcoin

[0:01] Yo, welcome back to another episode of
[0:05] the Jack Mallers Show. I am your host
[0:08] Jack. You're listening to yet another
[0:11] edition
[0:12] of mailbag Monday, 6:00 p.m. Eastern,
[0:16] 5:00 p.m. Central, 3:00 p.m. Pacific
[0:19] time.
[0:20] All signal, no noise, and no ads.
[0:24] Without further ado, ladies and
[0:25] gentlemen, let's get this show on the
[0:27] road. I'm talking to you all at a
[0:30] Bitcoin price
[0:31] I can't [laughter] even I'm talking to
[0:33] you at a Bitcoin price of 68,530
[0:37] US dollars. That puts Bitcoin's market
[0:39] cap at a 1.37
[0:42] trillion dollars in size. We are still
[0:46] hanging down towards the recent lows.
[0:49] Bitcoin's all-time high price remains at
[0:52] 126,160
[0:54] dollars. We are over 45%
[0:58] off that all-time high that was made on
[1:00] October 6, 2025. It has now been 133
[1:05] days since we made an all-time high for
[1:07] those keeping score at home.
[1:10] What about the Bitcoin block height?
[1:13] What was the last Bitcoin block mined
[1:16] since I hit stream? It was Bitcoin block
[1:18] 936,984.
[1:21] That is how we timestamp these shows
[1:23] here on the Jack Mallers Show.
[1:26] Okay, ladies and gentlemen, here's the
[1:27] deal.
[1:29] It's a holiday in the United States, so
[1:31] I got no Dylan.
[1:32] So, I don't know how I'm going to do
[1:34] Q&A. Um you guys are probably asking
[1:36] questions in the chat, but I got to do
[1:38] the show. I can't really see the chat.
[1:40] So, I'm going to try and do my best. Um
[1:43] I'm also a little bit under the weather.
[1:44] Nothing major though. You know I'm a
[1:45] champion. You know I'm a man of the
[1:47] people. Nothing's going to stop me from
[1:49] fighting for the man for the common man.
[1:51] Geez, excuse me. Slip typo there, a
[1:53] little mouse slip. Fighting for the
[1:55] common man.
[1:56] Um but a little bit of a cold
[1:57] nonetheless. So, my plan going into it
[2:00] was to keep the episode a little short,
[2:01] not in a bad way, but some of the
[2:04] feedback you guys give me is the show is
[2:05] super repetitive. I don't know what to
[2:07] do about that. I mean,
[2:09] you know, the same storylines are
[2:10] dominating our everyday lives here. Um
[2:13] so, I've tightened it up a little bit. I
[2:14] have a new section of the show that I
[2:17] think is hilarious.
[2:19] Ultimately, you guys will be the judge
[2:20] of that. And then we'll do Q&A a little
[2:22] bit live, okay? So, I'll just open up
[2:24] the chat. You guys will ask me what you
[2:26] want. Um that'll be interesting. Um
[2:29] we'll see how well I interact with the
[2:31] chat. Sometimes the chat um throws
[2:33] punches at me, and I throw punches back,
[2:35] so that'll be fun. Uh and then we'll
[2:38] call it a day. Fair game?
[2:40] Little special edition, holiday edition
[2:43] of Jack Mallers Show. So, without
[2:44] further ado, let's go.
[2:46] Today's episode is titled Japan AI in
[2:50] the next liquidity shock and why
[2:51] Bitcoin's weakness is an early warning.
[2:53] And so, I want to oop
[2:56] Pulling up the chat, and uh I just
[2:59] played my own voice. That's al That's
[3:01] always tough. It's always a tough scene
[3:03] hearing your own voice.
[3:06] Um anyway, all right. Here we go.
[3:09] Uh Japan AI in the next liquidity shock,
[3:11] why Bitcoin's weakness is an early
[3:13] warning. And the reason that this is
[3:17] uh a little bit repetitive is because
[3:19] I'm going to be talking about a very
[3:21] similar message to what I've been saying
[3:22] over the last 6 months, maybe. It
[3:24] depends on when you start counting. Um
[3:27] but
[3:28] guys, I mean,
[3:30] the story is the story. Uh
[3:32] above all else, above entertainment
[3:34] value, above having fun, um I do this to
[3:38] spit facts, tell the truth, um try and
[3:41] be part of the public conversation in a
[3:42] really unique way. Um no political bias,
[3:46] no corporate bias, um no ads, just
[3:49] truth.
[3:50] And the story remains the same.
[3:52] Bitcoin's weakness is telling us
[3:54] something, okay? Uh it's telling us when
[3:57] liquidity is weak and when liquidity is
[4:00] abundant. When the liquidity is
[4:01] abundant, Bitcoin is shrieking high in
[4:04] price discovery and making new highs.
[4:05] And when liquidity is weak, Bitcoin's
[4:06] the first to move. We've talked often on
[4:08] the show, Bitcoin's a truth machine.
[4:10] It's the only truly free market we have
[4:12] left. It's like a liquidity smoke alarm,
[4:15] okay?
[4:16] And in my opinion,
[4:19] liquidity is starting to get really
[4:20] scarce for two main reasons, and we talk
[4:23] about it frequently on the show. One is
[4:26] Japan,
[4:27] and what's happening in Japan. We've
[4:28] talked about how that's the biggest
[4:29] macro story in the world right now and
[4:31] increasingly so.
[4:33] And the other is AI.
[4:35] Um the rate at which AI So, as you guys
[4:37] know,
[4:38] if you look closely, if you're watching
[4:40] the visuals here, if you look closely,
[4:42] um I'm running this slideshow on
[4:44] localhost 8000. I use AI to make this
[4:47] show. AI has improved my life so much,
[4:50] and it is true. It's been in the last 3
[4:53] to 6 months in particular. Changed how
[4:56] we do everything at Strike. Ch- It's
[4:58] It's really picking up.
[5:00] And uh there are pros to that. Like,
[5:02] it's enhanced my productivity in my life
[5:04] tremendously, but there are cons. And
[5:06] we've talked about how it really
[5:08] disintermediates the white-collar
[5:09] worker, and the United States is full of
[5:13] white-collar workers. We talk about how
[5:15] the blue blue-collar jobs are in China.
[5:17] And so, the rise of AI is the death of
[5:22] jobs in America.
[5:24] And the combination of those two
[5:26] seemingly are causing really serious
[5:28] issues. And those issues are starting to
[5:32] take hold, and Bitcoin's giving us a
[5:34] clue as to what's to come. So, the
[5:37] thesis of the episode is really this um
[5:40] Venn diagram chart that I made here. So,
[5:43] for those listening, I've got one
[5:44] circle, which is sovereign debt, which
[5:46] is just governments being so indebted.
[5:49] You know, you got debt to GDP of the
[5:50] United States at around 130%. You've got
[5:53] debt to GDP in Japan at over 200%.
[5:56] Then you've got this other circle of AI
[5:58] deflation. Okay?
[6:01] And that is the better AI gets at making
[6:04] us more efficient, um the more jobs
[6:07] we're going to lose. Uh the more jobs
[6:09] we're going to lose, the less taxes the
[6:11] United States collects, the less taxes
[6:13] the United States collects,
[6:15] uh the higher treasury yields go, the
[6:18] higher It's It's starts a death spiral.
[6:20] And so, AI deflation, we we know well
[6:23] and good that an inflationary monetary
[6:26] regime does not like a deflationary
[6:29] technology.
[6:30] And then the third circle I have is just
[6:32] tightness of liquidity. Um we know that
[6:34] Jerome Powell has not cut rates like
[6:37] Trump. Trump wants to run it hot. Trump
[6:39] wants growth, 20% plus growth. And
[6:42] liquidity has remained tight. Now, the
[6:44] Fed is back raising uh their balance
[6:46] sheet. Um
[6:48] quantitative tightening is over, but
[6:51] it's not monetary policy it is not as
[6:53] easy as the administration has wanted.
[6:55] And so, you've got this combination of
[6:57] these three circles, sovereign debt, AI
[6:59] deflation, and tight liquidity, which to
[7:02] me is starting to result in a liquidity
[7:04] shock. I think we're going to get some
[7:06] form of a crisis soon, and Bitcoin is
[7:09] really telling us that. So, the first
[7:11] chapter is Hello Darkness, my old
[7:14] friend. Under the surface, things are
[7:15] looking bleak. So,
[7:17] um
[7:18] a few things like really caught my eye
[7:20] over the last week. It's starting to
[7:21] look really, really bad out there.
[7:24] Uh for starters, the world uncertainty
[7:26] index has never been higher and like way
[7:29] higher. Um it is almost double what the
[7:33] world uncertainty index was in COVID.
[7:36] And mind you, it's titled here. So, for
[7:39] those listening, on the far left, you've
[7:40] got 9/11. Slightly above 9/11 was the
[7:43] Iraq War. Slightly above the Iraq War
[7:45] was COVID. And now you have what's
[7:47] happening in 2025. The visual has it
[7:50] titled as the trade war.
[7:52] But I disagree with that. Yes, we're in
[7:54] a trade war with China, but I would say
[7:57] sovereign debt crisis {slash} AI
[8:02] is probably more accurately what is
[8:04] driving this level of certainty {slash}
[8:07] new world order.
[8:09] Like {slash} we took over Venezuela
[8:12] {slash} we want Greenland {slash} at the
[8:15] World Economic Forum, everyone mutually
[8:18] agreed that the post-1945,
[8:22] post-World War II economic order is dead
[8:25] {slash} globalism is ending. So, it's
[8:27] definitely not just the trade war.
[8:29] But I think everyone would agree that
[8:32] the level of uncertainty
[8:34] is at an all-time high.
[8:37] And it's interesting I'll get into this
[8:38] later, but there's an AI CEO that wrote
[8:42] a very long letter about how this to him
[8:45] feels like the few months prior to COVID
[8:49] really becoming a mainstream crisis.
[8:52] I remember those days vividly, where I
[8:54] was on Twitter, and people that I really
[8:56] respect and I think are brilliant were
[8:58] like, there is a crisis around the
[9:01] corner. Something bad is about to
[9:03] happen. And at the time, if you were
[9:05] like stacking toilet paper in February
[9:08] of 2020, you were a nutcase. You're
[9:11] like, what the [ __ ] is wrong with this
[9:12] guy? I could go outside. I could go to
[9:15] the grocery store. I'm going to my job.
[9:17] Why are you stockpiling
[9:19] toilet paper? But then come March and
[9:22] April 2020, you were a genius.
[9:25] And so, it's interesting, okay? Let's
[9:27] move on.
[9:28] Downwards revision incoming. So, Anna
[9:31] Wong, lead economist at Bloomberg,
[9:34] she tweeted this last week, which came
[9:36] to me kind of came out of nowhere. At
[9:38] this point, I have to start expecting
[9:39] it. Was on jobs, we are expecting about
[9:42] 666,000
[9:43] downward revisions to March 2025
[9:46] payrolls. And then she says, after
[9:48] including birth and death model updates,
[9:50] the total revision should be a million.
[9:54] Like, what?
[9:56] First of all, what What's the point of
[9:58] using this data if all we do is later
[10:02] revise it down a million?
[10:05] Like what what's the point of publishing
[10:08] the data in the first place?
[10:10] >> [snorts]
[10:10] >> So anyways,
[10:12] as of yesterday, it she was right.
[10:16] Breaking, US job numbers were revised
[10:18] down 1 million 29,000 jobs.
[10:22] The largest annual revision in the last
[10:25] 20 years. This follows downward
[10:27] revisions of 818,000 in 2024, 306,000 in
[10:31] 2023. So in total, over 2.1 million jobs
[10:35] have been revised out of the initially
[10:37] reported data over the last 3 years.
[10:40] Okay, like are rate cuts back on now
[10:43] that we know that all the job data that
[10:45] said the economy was doing fine and
[10:47] everyone was employed isn't true?
[10:50] And here's the other thing. If things
[10:52] were bad, let's say liquidity's getting
[10:54] tight. Let's say sovereign debt is
[10:57] really reaching crisis levels as we're
[10:59] seeing in Japan. And let's say AI is
[11:02] really starting to take everyone's jobs
[11:03] and we're reaching that level of an
[11:05] inflection point.
[11:07] Well, one of the things that we would
[11:08] see are delinquencies.
[11:11] Delinquencies would start to trend up.
[11:14] And oh boy, are they trending up.
[11:17] >> [laughter]
[11:17] >> That's kind of why I I listen, I don't
[11:20] want to repeat topics too much. I want
[11:22] the show to be interesting. I know I it
[11:24] gets repetitive.
[11:26] But guys, I can't help it.
[11:28] I mean, this from Bloomberg, US consumer
[11:31] delinquencies jumped to highest in
[11:33] almost a decade.
[11:35] If this if these aren't warning signs,
[11:40] then I don't know what is. You pair this
[11:42] with the recent Bitcoin price action,
[11:45] with the revision of jobs,
[11:47] with what's happening in Japan,
[11:50] it's starting to look really dicey. So
[11:52] deflationary force meets a debt system
[11:54] deflation doesn't like inflation. So
[11:56] this is an image from that Bloomberg
[11:58] article debt and default. The share of
[12:00] US loans in delinquency is at its
[12:02] highest since 2017 and it's 2026, so
[12:05] that's almost a decade. And you can see
[12:07] the delinquencies are rising. And then
[12:09] it you know, in the article, you guys
[12:11] should read it, it talks about how
[12:14] housing is the main driver. And
[12:16] housing's really the main driver in all
[12:19] consumer affordability crisis issues,
[12:21] right? It's the thing that's people need
[12:24] the most, which is a roof over their
[12:25] head. It drives the affordability crisis
[12:28] the most and they claim that mortgages
[12:31] and defaulting on your mortgage is the
[12:34] driver to delinquencies. However, if you
[12:37] pull on the thread a little bit, you're
[12:38] like, well, hold on a second. If we fix
[12:40] the mortgage crisis, which by the way,
[12:41] there is no fixing that, it's just
[12:42] printing money. But allow me to talk
[12:45] like a Keynesian for a second. If we fix
[12:47] the mortgage crisis, well, would
[12:48] delinquencies resolve of themselves? And
[12:50] the answer is absolutely not. There's I
[12:53] mean, I could have made this a million
[12:55] slides long. Their delinquency crisis in
[12:57] student debt. This tweet here, share of
[13:00] credit card loans in serious delinquency
[13:02] rose to 12.7% in the fourth quarter of
[13:04] 2025. The only other times the share has
[13:08] been higher is 2010 and the beginning of
[13:10] 2011, which obviously um mind you was
[13:13] right after the global financial crisis.
[13:16] And so, there are delinquencies in
[13:19] consumer credit across the board. Across
[13:22] the board.
[13:24] It is not good. And these are the type
[13:27] of signals that you'd see. Listen, if
[13:29] the Bitcoin price is dislocated, but
[13:32] it's because Binance blew up when one
[13:35] was insolvent,
[13:37] or for you know, for some obvious
[13:39] reason, then you buy the dip and we've
[13:41] all seen a Bitcoin chart like that,
[13:42] V-shaped recovery. If Bitcoin looks
[13:45] weak,
[13:46] again, guys, never fade the truth. Never
[13:50] fade open source software. Never fade a
[13:52] truly distributed network. Bitcoin is
[13:55] honest.
[13:57] Don't fight it. Just listen to it.
[13:59] That's part of the you know, kill your
[14:01] ego, stay humble aspect of Bitcoin. It's
[14:05] trying to tell you something. When I
[14:07] look at delinquencies on the rise and I
[14:09] look at a dislocated Bitcoin price and I
[14:12] look at the Japanese markets,
[14:14] I think a crisis is brewing.
[14:17] Which again, policy makers will never
[14:19] print the money without a crisis. It is
[14:23] politically not okay to ignite inflation
[14:27] wartime spending
[14:29] without an excuse.
[14:34] But I don't know. I mean, like to me,
[14:36] it's time to turn on your DCAs and start
[14:39] to average into this dip
[14:42] because Bitcoin to me looks like it's
[14:44] telling us that there's bad news around
[14:48] the corner. So now that we know
[14:50] delinquencies are on the rise,
[14:53] every single index you could care about,
[14:55] consumer confidence index, everything
[14:58] bad, really bad.
[15:00] Let's take a look at Japan. So the title
[15:02] of this chapter, Japan is flashing red,
[15:05] the largest story in macroeconomics.
[15:07] Okay, this chart shoot. Let me see if I
[15:10] can blow it up a little bit. Here we go.
[15:12] So
[15:13] this is from the Financial Times. The
[15:16] title of this visual is if forward
[15:18] markets are a guide to the future, debt
[15:20] service is set to explode.
[15:23] Now,
[15:24] by looking at the metrics of the show,
[15:27] a very healthy chunky you guys listen to
[15:30] this as a podcast.
[15:32] So I'm going to do my best. This is
[15:34] easily the most important graphic of the
[15:36] whole presentation, by far.
[15:38] So
[15:40] here's what this thing is attempting to
[15:42] show.
[15:43] So in the subtitle it says light bubbles
[15:45] show a 2036 projection. So 2036, the
[15:48] year is 2026 right now. So that's 10
[15:51] years forward.
[15:53] And what it's using is it's using bond
[15:54] markets to forward project
[15:57] expected rates. Okay? And so what it has
[16:01] is on the X axis, let me scroll down a
[16:03] little bit, it has debt to GDP.
[16:06] So you can see Germany's debt to GDP is
[16:08] a little over 60%. The US is living in
[16:11] this 120%, 130% range. You see Japan all
[16:16] the way at the right over there
[16:19] at two almost 240%.
[16:21] Okay, so that's debt to GDP. And mind
[16:23] you guys, why is this important?
[16:25] Debt to GDP is how much debt how much of
[16:29] their populous future has a sovereign
[16:31] has a country borrowed versus how much
[16:33] growth are they producing to pay it
[16:34] back? Why is that relevant? Why does
[16:37] that matter so much? Well, think about
[16:38] it.
[16:39] When you borrow money, what matters is
[16:42] growth that you're producing to pay it
[16:43] back. You only borrow from your future
[16:46] if you theoretically could spend that
[16:48] capital today and arrive in the future
[16:51] with more resources than if you didn't.
[16:53] Let me give you a super layman's
[16:54] example.
[16:56] Uh 5-year-old borrows $100 for a
[16:59] lemonade stand.
[17:00] And the expectation is they'll produce
[17:01] enough growth selling lemonade that
[17:04] they'll be able to pay back the $100
[17:06] plus proceeds for themselves, right? And
[17:09] so what you would want to know is debt
[17:12] to GDP for the 5-year-old's lemonade
[17:13] stand is how much debt did they take?
[17:15] $100 versus how much growth are they
[17:17] producing to pay that back? Now you take
[17:19] that to the United States or to Japan or
[17:22] to Germany. How much debt versus the
[17:24] GDP? What's that ratio?
[17:26] And when you get to over 100%, if you
[17:29] get to 120%, Japan's well over 200%, um
[17:33] that's interesting. Now,
[17:35] the Y axis is debt services as a percent
[17:38] percentage of GDP. So how much does it
[17:41] cost to service the debt as a percentage
[17:44] of your growth?
[17:45] Okay. Now, when you use the bond market,
[17:48] you can actually get a sense of how
[17:50] markets are judging this.
[17:52] And so when you look at the light
[17:54] bubbles that shows the projection 10
[17:55] years out using the 10-year tenure
[17:58] markets,
[17:59] it shows that Japan
[18:02] is pricing 11% debt service as a
[18:04] percentage of GDP. That's insane.
[18:08] That means well over 10%
[18:12] of debt service as a percent of their
[18:13] GDP.
[18:15] That's unbelievable. It shows the United
[18:17] States as over 6% at 7%.
[18:22] And what this image shows is the if if
[18:25] you look at the diagonal lines, the
[18:28] higher the rates go, the faster your
[18:30] growth.
[18:34] You see?
[18:36] So this image, you screenshot this
[18:40] and you should read the Financial Times
[18:43] article. This goes to show and and read
[18:46] the title of this. If forward markets
[18:48] are a guide to the future, debt service
[18:50] is set to explode. It's not making a
[18:53] speculative prediction. It's taking
[18:56] forward markets, so the 10-year tenure,
[18:59] forward projecting a 1030 to 2036 using
[19:01] that and saying as a percent of GDP,
[19:05] none of this is sustainable. And this is
[19:07] a very like in my opinion interesting
[19:10] way because usually you don't have debt
[19:14] to GDP rates and debt service percentage
[19:16] GDP in one chart. So it was able to
[19:18] create a visual all out of all of those
[19:20] and basically show us that we are
[19:23] reaching sovereign crisis levels of
[19:26] debt. Like Japan and and if you look at
[19:28] Japan all the way on the right in the
[19:30] forward projection of 11%, I mean,
[19:33] that's outrageous. That's outrageous. Uh
[19:35] let me zoom this back out.
[19:37] And so
[19:38] here I go showing the same asset
[19:41] probably for the third week in a row,
[19:43] which is the US 10-year over the
[19:45] Japanese 10-year and the US dollar over
[19:47] the Japanese yen.
[19:49] And the title of my slide, EM style
[19:52] stress signal, JGB yields are up and the
[19:55] yen is down.
[19:57] That is emergent market behavior.
[20:00] This is not good. This is really, really
[20:03] bad. The gap between that red line and
[20:06] that blue line is the biggest story in
[20:08] macroeconomics right now.
[20:10] The biggest story, by far.
[20:13] By far.
[20:19] So, interesting. Um this I got this from
[20:23] Luke Roman. Shout out Luke, just the
[20:24] best in the game, honestly. Um this
[20:27] title, Japan was the only exception. So,
[20:30] mind you, this from Hirschmann Capital.
[20:32] Okay, I'm going to I'm going to read uh
[20:34] the graphic here. Government default
[20:36] seems unavoidable.
[20:38] It reads, "Since 1800, 51 out of 52
[20:41] countries with gross government debt
[20:43] greater than 130% have defaulted, either
[20:46] through restructuring, devaluation, high
[20:49] inflation, or an outright default.
[20:51] Examples are shown in the endnote. The
[20:54] IMF expects the US government debt to
[20:56] GDP to be a record 141%
[21:00] by year-end 2020. There is little reason
[21:03] the US government should not also
[21:05] default. Okay?
[21:07] In the endnotes, it has this visual
[21:09] which I've shown on the right here.
[21:11] And it has a footnote that says,
[21:13] "Present-day Japan is the only example
[21:16] of a country avoiding default despite
[21:18] having government debt greater than 130%
[21:20] of GDP.
[21:23] However, as discussed in our year-end
[21:25] 2016 letter, a Japanese default seems
[21:28] inevitable." And Japan was always used
[21:31] from Keynesian economics or modern-day
[21:33] economists, like all these fiat maxis,
[21:36] it was always used as an excuse. Well,
[21:39] look at Japan. Japan's debt to GDP is
[21:41] over 200%. It hasn't defaulted.
[21:44] And it was always such a load of [ __ ]
[21:45] Obviously, anyone with a brain and that
[21:47] can think logically with first
[21:49] principles knows that you cannot just
[21:51] borrow from your future forever,
[21:53] especially without producing the growth
[21:55] to pay it back. That's a perpetual
[21:57] motion machine. That's a Ponzi scheme.
[22:00] All of us logically are aware of that.
[22:03] It takes, I don't know, a teenager's
[22:05] developed brain to understand that. Um
[22:08] how we have economists teaching at
[22:11] universities the opposite of that is
[22:13] always mind-boggling to me.
[22:15] Um but the point of this is
[22:18] now Japan's no longer an exception. It's
[22:21] no longer an excuse. And every single
[22:24] country that's debt to GDP gets out of
[22:26] control, they default. The United States
[22:29] is at these levels. Japan is long over
[22:31] those levels. So, again, why am What's
[22:34] the context? Guys, we are living through
[22:38] a sovereign debt crisis. Like we're in
[22:41] the middle of it.
[22:43] So, Japan can protect itself by selling
[22:46] the United States. And this is another
[22:47] topic. Again, I could have made this
[22:49] episode 3 hours long, but these are
[22:52] topics I've gone over in recent
[22:53] episodes, so
[22:55] trying to keep this one tight, but
[22:57] Joseph Wang writes, "Japan looks to be
[22:59] in a crack-up boom. A fiat regime has no
[23:02] risk of a bond crisis, and rising JGB
[23:05] yields simply reflect rising policy
[23:07] expectations. An FX crisis is possible,
[23:11] but Japan can manage that with its large
[23:13] foreign asset holdings." I want to break
[23:15] this down and say it in Jack language.
[23:18] So, a fiat regime has no risk of a bond
[23:20] crisis. Why is he saying that? Well, a
[23:23] bond crisis is a crisis of lending to
[23:27] the government, right? Well, as we've
[23:30] talked about in previous episodes
[23:31] recently, a bond is just a way to lend
[23:34] to the sovereign, lend to the
[23:35] government, to the Japanese government,
[23:37] to the US government.
[23:38] So, when he says a fiat regime has no
[23:40] risk of a bond crisis, he's saying a
[23:42] fiat regime can just print money. So, if
[23:44] no one will lend it to the government,
[23:46] the central bank can always just print
[23:48] the money out of thin air and lend it to
[23:49] the government. Now, you're solving a
[23:51] problem while creating another one. The
[23:53] other one you're creating is that's
[23:54] highly inflationary, obviously. It
[23:56] severely debases the currency just by
[23:58] creating money out of thin air.
[24:00] But his point is there is no bond crisis
[24:03] for these sovereigns. At the end of the
[24:04] day,
[24:05] they're a fiat regime, so they can just
[24:07] print what they want.
[24:10] And so, he says, "A fiat regime has no
[24:11] risk of a bond crisis." Okay, we
[24:13] understand that. And rising JGB yields
[24:15] simply reflect reflect rising policy
[24:17] expectations.
[24:19] An FX crisis is possible. So, as we've
[24:22] been talking about, yields have gone up,
[24:24] but the currency has gone down. That's
[24:26] an emerging market crisis. Now, that is
[24:28] an issue. And what he's saying is a bond
[24:31] crisis
[24:32] is can be solved by printing money out
[24:34] of thin air.
[24:36] What printing money out of thin air does
[24:38] not solve is a currency crisis, an FX
[24:40] crisis. Printing more yen only weakens
[24:43] the yen.
[24:45] And he says, "But Japan can manage that
[24:47] by selling its large foreign holdings."
[24:49] And this is what we've been talking
[24:50] about over and over and over and over is
[24:53] Japan is one of the largest asset
[24:55] holders in the world. They own a
[24:57] tremendous amount of the United States
[24:59] of America.
[25:00] And so, the reason that the United
[25:02] States has wanted to step in,
[25:05] provide them a dollar swap line, bail
[25:08] out Japan, be involved in their markets,
[25:11] so I've talked about before. We're
[25:13] America. Why the hell do we care about
[25:15] Japan that much? If they have issues,
[25:17] they have issues. It's not like we wish
[25:18] them to have issues, but if they have
[25:20] issues, like why does it matter? I live
[25:21] in Chicago.
[25:22] Well, the reason is because if Japan
[25:24] wanted to protect its currency, so let's
[25:27] say this. Japan bonds get out of control
[25:29] and the Japanese Central Bank needs to
[25:31] print money out of thin air to lend it
[25:33] to the government to protect the bond
[25:34] market. Okay, fine. Now, the currency
[25:37] that's already getting hammered is going
[25:38] to get hammered more.
[25:40] Okay?
[25:41] How do they protect the currency? Well,
[25:43] all the assets that they have, they can
[25:45] sell them to bid up their own currency.
[25:48] Basically, deplete their reserves. Think
[25:50] of this as a giant, like they have all
[25:53] these reserves backing this Ponzi
[25:55] scheme, and now the Ponzi scheme is
[25:56] getting margin called, so they're going
[25:57] to deplete their reserves. It's like the
[25:59] Luna Luna Ponzi scheme of 2022. So,
[26:02] they're going to deplete their reserves
[26:03] to try and protect it.
[26:05] Well, what are their reserves? Their
[26:07] reserves are Mag 7. Their reserves are
[26:10] US Treasuries. Their reserves are US
[26:13] assets.
[26:14] Right?
[26:15] And so, this is the Japan sneezes and
[26:18] the US Treasury market gets the flu. Why
[26:20] this this is why the United States
[26:22] cares. This is why this is such a global
[26:24] issue and not just an issue for Japan
[26:27] is because if Japan is under stress,
[26:29] then the US Treasury market will start
[26:30] to dysfunction or and/or the US stock
[26:34] market will start to dysfunction. And it
[26:36] doesn't matter if the US Treasury market
[26:38] initially is is okay. As soon as the US
[26:40] stock market starts to sell off again,
[26:42] the US needs their tax receipts. They
[26:44] need assets to deliver capital gains.
[26:46] They need employment to remain healthy,
[26:48] or else they cannot afford their own
[26:51] debt servicing. So, Japan gets stressed,
[26:53] US Treasury starts to dysfunction,
[26:55] yields go up, risk comes off, Bitcoin
[26:57] comes down. And that's this array This
[27:00] This is the domino of events.
[27:04] And like we've talked about before in
[27:05] the last episode in particular,
[27:07] unfortunately, Bitcoin
[27:09] is bucketed in this risk on. It's
[27:11] bucketed like it's a technology software
[27:13] stock.
[27:15] And, you know, I I would assume everyone
[27:16] listening to this show thinks of it like
[27:18] hard money, has monetized it like hard
[27:20] money, treats it as a savings account.
[27:22] And eventually, as Bitcoin
[27:24] the the people holding it for
[27:27] what I think are the wrong reasons, that
[27:29] cuz they think it's like owning Mag 7,
[27:31] like a tech stock, they're getting
[27:33] washed out. And over time, Bitcoin
[27:36] continues to be capitalized and held by
[27:39] what are called hodlers of last resort,
[27:41] right? Those that monetize it, those
[27:43] that save in it. And so, slowly but
[27:45] surely, my expectation is Bitcoin
[27:48] decouples itself from trading like a
[27:49] tech stock and starts to behave and act
[27:52] more like gold. But it's going to have
[27:54] to mature for that. It's going to need a
[27:55] larger market cap. It's still not big
[27:57] enough for sovereigns, for central
[27:58] banks, for um you know, endowments even,
[28:02] to allocate in in large size. A $1.3
[28:05] trillion asset is just not big enough.
[28:07] It's like the size of Tesla. Okay?
[28:10] Um and the people a large portion of
[28:13] people that do hold it are
[28:15] unfortunately,
[28:16] you know, they are getting crushed right
[28:19] now because software's getting crushed,
[28:21] because Mag 7 is getting crushed,
[28:22] because there's a capital rotation into
[28:24] gold. And part of them getting crushed
[28:26] is Bitcoin's getting crushed cuz they've
[28:27] been holders of Bitcoin.
[28:29] So, that's why Japan matters. You know,
[28:32] for the novice, and I don't blame them,
[28:34] they're like, "Okay, cool. Like Tokyo's
[28:35] [ __ ] Why do I care?" Well,
[28:40] this whole fiat thing is one giant chain
[28:42] of Ponzi scheme.
[28:46] That's That's why you care.
[28:48] So,
[28:50] what's my evidence here? Look at the Mag
[28:52] 7. Um this tweet from Charlie, "All
[28:54] seven members of the Magnificent Seven
[28:56] are now down on the year and
[28:58] underperforming the S&P 500."
[29:01] So, I've talked about I think
[29:03] something's brewing.
[29:04] Job revisions look really bad. Consumer
[29:07] confidence looks really bad. Consumer
[29:09] sentiment looks really bad. Mag 7 looks
[29:11] really bad. Bitcoin looks really bad.
[29:13] It's a matter of time before the Nasdaq
[29:15] and the S&P 500 take a tumble. I think
[29:18] that I think something like liberation
[29:21] day or worse is coming. I do. And I
[29:24] think Bitcoin is going to bleed until
[29:26] they print the money. Now, the way this
[29:28] ends is they're going to print the
[29:29] money, right? I mean, we've talked about
[29:32] this. It's either going to be a hard
[29:33] default or a soft default. A hard
[29:34] default is they
[29:36] they the United States just comes out
[29:37] and says, "We give up. Everything's
[29:39] over.
[29:40] Um we're defaulting. The world's going
[29:42] to fall apart." Um they could have done
[29:44] that over the last decades. They
[29:46] haven't. Instead, they've printed the
[29:47] money, which is a soft default. A soft
[29:49] default is defaulting via inflation. If
[29:52] you print enough money, paying back $40
[29:55] is not that hard because a dollar is
[29:57] worthless. You know, we could afford
[30:00] paying back $40 Venezuelan bolivars
[30:03] because of Venezuelan bolivars like
[30:05] literally worth less than the toilet
[30:07] paper that wipes my ass.
[30:09] So, if you keep printing the dollar,
[30:12] then you're effectively defaulting
[30:15] via inflation and debasement of the
[30:16] currency. And so, what's my evidence
[30:19] that this is playing out is MAGA 7
[30:21] getting absolutely hammered. Microsoft
[30:23] down 17%, Amazon down 14%, Tesla down,
[30:26] Apple down, Meta, Google, Nvidia.
[30:29] I mean,
[30:31] it's bad. It's bad. Um and then, if you
[30:35] look at the MAGA 7 over gold, I mean, it
[30:37] looks really bad. It's about to make new
[30:41] lows and
[30:44] uh it's clear that capital is rotating
[30:46] into gold. And what does that mean,
[30:48] guys? Capital rotating from where into
[30:50] gold? From sovereign paper, from
[30:52] sovereign debt. So, the era of saving in
[30:55] sovereign debt is dead. We are entering
[30:58] a sovereign debt crisis. Sovereign debt
[31:00] capital, these these treasuries, these
[31:03] paper notes from governments are
[31:04] rotating into gold.
[31:06] Why not Bitcoin? I've said, Bitcoin's
[31:09] just not big enough. It's just not not
[31:11] mature enough yet, and that's fine.
[31:13] Like, it's all about your time
[31:14] preference and it's all about why you're
[31:16] here. I'm 31 years old. I
[31:19] firmly believe gold has already failed
[31:21] us. It's going to fail us again if we
[31:23] let it. We've engineered a better
[31:25] solution, but it's going to take a lot
[31:26] of man-hours and a lot of conviction and
[31:28] a lot of leadership to lead us to the
[31:31] glory days of Bitcoin. We got put our
[31:33] head down and get to work, and I'm young
[31:35] enough where I hope, God willing, knock
[31:37] on wood, that I can be alive for the
[31:39] coming decades to see that through for
[31:41] future generations, for my kids. So, I'm
[31:44] not worried I I got nothing but time. As
[31:46] long as I eat my ribeyes, get some sun,
[31:48] exercise, take care of my body, I got
[31:50] nothing but time. But the reality is,
[31:52] Bitcoin's just not big enough. A
[31:53] trillion-dollar asset can't absorb
[31:55] central bank buying. It can't China ran
[31:58] a trillion-plus dollar trade surplus
[32:00] last year. They can't pour their trade
[32:02] surplus into Bitcoin. Their trade
[32:03] surplus this year might be bigger than
[32:05] Bitcoin's entire market cap.
[32:07] So, when you look at Bitcoin versus
[32:09] gold, it looks like MAGA 7 versus gold.
[32:12] It looks like tech versus gold. Gold is
[32:14] absorbing the largest market in the
[32:17] world, which is but the bond market, the
[32:19] treasury market. And Bitcoin is behaving
[32:22] like a tech stock, which, by the way,
[32:25] I don't want to be too negative. It's
[32:28] Bitcoin's going to outperform once they
[32:30] print the money. Just to be clear, my
[32:32] like one-sentence prediction, the next
[32:34] one to two quarters are probably going
[32:36] to be really volatile and potentially a
[32:38] crisis, and then they print the money,
[32:40] and then we're off to the races.
[32:41] Bitcoin's the best-performing thing. And
[32:43] so, to me, it's time to turn on your
[32:46] DCAs. It's time to buy the [ __ ] dip.
[32:49] Buy the tech guys' dips. These tech
[32:51] hedge fund guys are getting margin
[32:53] called. Tech is getting murdered.
[32:56] And buy their dip.
[32:57] Hodlers of last resort, the sovereign
[32:59] individuals, buy their dip. But, that's
[33:03] I mean, what's happening in Japan is the
[33:05] largest story in macroeconomics, bar
[33:07] none. It's not close.
[33:10] It is a debt crisis playing out in real
[33:13] time, and if the Japanese currency needs
[33:15] help, they're going to have to sell all
[33:16] their US assets. If they sell all their
[33:18] US assets, they're going to cause a
[33:19] crisis. And so, the question is not if
[33:22] there will be a crisis, it's when there
[33:24] will be a crisis and when authorities
[33:26] will step in. That's the question.
[33:29] Are they going to step in before the
[33:31] crisis? They usually don't. They usually
[33:33] let there be pain so that they have
[33:35] political cover.
[33:37] If Think about it. If Janet Yellen
[33:39] printed all that money before Silicon
[33:42] Valley Bank fell apart,
[33:44] they'd be like, "What the hell? We're on
[33:46] the back half of all this inflation.
[33:48] [ __ ] you, Janet Yellen."
[33:50] But because banks are falling apart and
[33:52] people were literally going to the bank
[33:54] and saying, "I want my money." And
[33:55] they're saying, "Your money's not here."
[34:00] Then, she has the political cover to
[34:02] print the money and be a hero.
[34:03] So, I expect I I expect things to get
[34:06] dicey. I really do. And on top of that,
[34:10] let's get into AI and how it's
[34:11] accelerating because it's one thing to
[34:13] have a sovereign debt crisis in Japan,
[34:15] effectively foreshadowing what's going
[34:17] to happen to the United States, and for
[34:19] central banks and sovereigns to be
[34:20] rotating out of government paper and
[34:23] into gold.
[34:24] It's an entirely other thing
[34:27] for this AI thing, which is one of the
[34:30] most deflationary inventions of our
[34:32] lifetime, to be accelerating at the pace
[34:35] that it is. So, chapter two, AI is
[34:37] accelerating and debt systems hate
[34:39] deflation. Okay, this guy, Matt Schuman,
[34:43] he wrote this piece. I mean, look at the
[34:45] screenshot. As of today, it had 83
[34:47] million views on Twitter. It's titled
[34:51] "Something Big Is Happening."
[34:53] Um I'm going to get close to my screen
[34:55] here and just read it. A little story
[34:57] time for the kids at home. Um
[35:00] Trust me, it'll be worth it. So, he
[35:02] writes,
[35:03] "Think back to February 2020. If you
[35:06] were paying close attention, you might
[35:08] have noticed a few people talking about
[35:09] a virus spreading overseas. But most of
[35:12] us weren't paying close attention. The
[35:14] stock market was doing great. Your kids
[35:16] were in school. You were going to
[35:17] restaurants and shaking hands and
[35:19] planning trips. If someone told you they
[35:21] were stockpiling toilet paper, you would
[35:23] have thought they'd be spending too much
[35:24] time in the weird corner of the
[35:26] internet. Then, over the course of about
[35:28] 3 weeks, the entire world changed. Your
[35:30] office closed. Your kids came home, and
[35:33] life rearranged itself into something
[35:35] you wouldn't have believed if you
[35:37] described it to yourself a month
[35:38] earlier.
[35:39] I think we're in the this seems
[35:41] overblown phase of something much, much
[35:44] bigger than COVID.
[35:46] I've spent 6 years building an AI
[35:48] startup and investing in the space. I
[35:50] live in this world, and I'm writing this
[35:53] for the people in my life who don't, my
[35:55] family, my friends, and the people I
[35:57] care about who keep asking me, "So,
[35:59] what's the deal with AI?" and getting an
[36:01] answer that doesn't do justice what's
[36:03] actually happening. I keep giving them
[36:05] the polite version, the cocktail party
[36:07] version, because the honest version
[36:09] sounds like I've lost my mind. And for a
[36:11] while, I told myself that was a good
[36:14] enough reason to keep what's truly
[36:16] happening to myself.
[36:17] But the gap between what I've been
[36:19] saying and what is actually happening
[36:21] has gotten far too big. The people I
[36:23] care about deserve to hear what is
[36:25] coming, even if it sounds crazy.
[36:29] I should be clear about something up
[36:31] front. Even though I work in AI, I have
[36:34] almost no influence over what's about to
[36:36] happen, and neither does the vast
[36:37] majority of our industry. The future is
[36:40] being shaped by a remarkably small
[36:41] number of people, a few hundred
[36:43] researchers at a handful of companies,
[36:45] OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and
[36:48] a few others. A single training run
[36:50] managed by a small team of over over a
[36:52] few months can produce an AI system that
[36:55] shifts the entire trajectory of
[36:57] technology. Most of us who work in AI
[37:00] are building on top of foundations that
[37:02] we did not lay. We're watching this
[37:04] unfold the same as you. We just happen
[37:06] to be close enough to feel the ground
[37:08] shake first.
[37:09] But it's time now, not in an eventually
[37:12] we should talk way, in a this is
[37:15] happening right now and I need you to
[37:18] understand it way.
[37:20] Then, the next page, and this is the
[37:22] last page I'll read. I know this is real
[37:25] because it happened to me first. Here's
[37:27] the thing nobody outside of tech quite
[37:29] understands yet. The reason so many
[37:31] people in the industry are sounding the
[37:33] alarm right now is because this already
[37:35] happened to us. We're not making
[37:37] predictions. We're telling you what
[37:39] already occurred in our own jobs and
[37:41] warning you that you're next. For years,
[37:44] AI had been improving steadily. Big
[37:47] jumps here and there, but each jump was
[37:50] spaced out enough so that you could
[37:52] absorb them as they came. Then, in 2025,
[37:55] new techniques for building these models
[37:57] unlocked a much faster pace of progress.
[38:00] And then it got even faster, and then
[38:02] faster again. Each new model wasn't just
[38:05] better than the last. It was better by a
[38:08] wide margin, and the time between new
[38:10] model releases was shorter. I was using
[38:13] AI more and more and more, going back
[38:16] and forth with it less and less and
[38:18] less, watching it handle things I used
[38:20] to think required my expertise.
[38:23] Then, on February 5th, two major AI labs
[38:26] released new models on the same day.
[38:29] GPT-5.3
[38:31] Codex from OpenAI and Opus 4.8 from
[38:34] Anthropic, the makers of Claude, one of
[38:37] the main competitors to ChatGPT, and
[38:39] something clicked. Not like a light
[38:41] switch, more like the moment you realize
[38:44] the water has been rising around you and
[38:46] now is at your chest. I am no longer
[38:49] needed for the actual technical work of
[38:51] my job. I describe what I want built in
[38:55] plain English, and it just appears.
[38:58] Not a rough draft of my computer for
[39:00] hours,
[39:02] and I come or excuse me,
[39:05] not a rough draft I need to fix, the
[39:07] finished thing. I tell the AI what I
[39:09] want. I walk away from my computer for 4
[39:12] hours, and I come back to find the work
[39:14] done. And it's done well, done better
[39:16] than I would have done it myself with no
[39:18] corrections needed. A couple of months
[39:20] ago, I was going back and forth with the
[39:22] AI, guiding the AI, making edits to the
[39:24] AI. Now, I just describe the outcome and
[39:26] I leave. Let me give you an example so
[39:29] you can understand what this actually
[39:30] looks like in practice. I'll tell the
[39:32] AI, "I want this app built. Here's what
[39:35] it should do. Here's roughly what it
[39:36] should look like. Figure out the user
[39:39] flow, the design, all of it."
[39:41] And it does it. It writes tens of
[39:43] thousands of lines of code. Then,
[39:46] and this is the part that would have
[39:48] been unthinkable years ago, it opens the
[39:50] app itself. It clicks through the app
[39:52] with buttons. It tests the features. It
[39:55] uses the app the same way a person would
[39:57] use the app. If it doesn't like how it
[39:59] does something or how it feels, it goes
[40:01] back and then changes it by itself. It
[40:04] iterates like a developer would, fixing
[40:07] and refining until it's satisfied. Only
[40:09] once it has decided that the app meets
[40:12] its own standards does it come back to
[40:14] me and say, "It's ready for you to
[40:16] test." And when I test it, it's usually
[40:18] perfect. I'm not exaggerating. This is
[40:20] what my Monday looked like this week.
[40:23] Okay.
[40:24] Guys,
[40:26] I'm going to give you a live example
[40:29] because this is exactly how I use AI and
[40:32] in fact how I built this. This guy is
[40:35] telling the truth. The CTO of Strike
[40:38] hasn't written a line of code in
[40:40] forever.
[40:42] Our CTO, Tom, has not written code in a
[40:45] really long time.
[40:47] Now, we're still like like AI is rapidly
[40:50] changing our company. And we already are
[40:54] one of the highest velocity Bitcoin
[40:55] companies in the world and we're only
[40:57] going to get more efficient. It's
[40:58] actually insane.
[41:00] Now, I will just make an example. So,
[41:02] the way I have AI set up,
[41:06] I have a developer environment that
[41:07] builds all my slide decks, my board
[41:09] decks, my Jack Mallers show decks, my
[41:12] presentations for conferences, internal
[41:14] ideas I have.
[41:15] So, here.
[41:17] I will say,
[41:21] "Create a new title slide after slide
[41:24] 22."
[41:25] And let's make the title live example of
[41:29] AI and the subtitle should be
[41:33] "This is mind-blowing."
[41:35] "Deflation meets inflation."
[41:40] So, I just talked to my computer.
[41:43] Okay. Um and it's off working.
[41:47] And what I've increasingly done is I I'm
[41:50] allowed to read a lot more research. I
[41:52] do spend a decent amount I spend about a
[41:54] thousand bucks on my personal AI setup.
[41:57] I use Claude for engineering. I use
[42:00] OpenAI for research and going back and
[42:02] forth on ideas. I use Gemini, which is
[42:05] Google's, for imagery and video
[42:06] creation.
[42:08] And then there's one more tool I use,
[42:10] which is an AI that is a browser
[42:12] extension and on my phone that reads to
[42:16] me anybody of text. It's unbelievable.
[42:19] So, if someone writes a blog or someone
[42:22] writes a tweetstorm or whatever, it
[42:24] allows me to walk around Chicago, go for
[42:26] walks, be outside, and I can consume
[42:28] research like someone's reading me a
[42:30] book. But it could be anything on the
[42:32] internet. So, I literally just have
[42:34] wired headphones in my ears. I walk
[42:36] around Chicago, get fresh air, sit in
[42:39] the park, places that kind of inspire
[42:41] me. And I just listen to research and
[42:45] listen to ideas. And then when I want to
[42:48] build something, I just talk to my
[42:50] computer. I will just pull out my phone
[42:52] and say, "Hey, tell my computer to build
[42:54] these slides." So, anyways, let's check
[42:56] back in on my So, it created it. So, I'm
[42:58] going to refresh my deck.
[43:01] And here's the slide it just made. Live
[43:03] example of AI. This is mind-blowing
[43:04] deflation meets inflation.
[43:06] It just made that slide
[43:10] cuz I just talked to it.
[43:12] So, the presentation you guys are seeing
[43:14] is I just talked to my computer. I say,
[43:17] "Here's all the data. Here the
[43:18] references. Here the images and the
[43:20] screenshots that I created. I have a
[43:21] folder on my computer."
[43:23] And like
[43:24] here's here's all the stuff. Make it.
[43:27] And I go, walk to the grocery store,
[43:30] listen to more research. I come back and
[43:32] I go back and forth with it a little
[43:33] bit. It's insane.
[43:35] It's [ __ ] insane.
[43:38] So,
[43:40] we go on.
[43:42] From Axios, AI insiders are sounding the
[43:45] alarm.
[43:46] A lot of insiders and executives at
[43:49] these AI companies have started to quit
[43:51] because of how powerful this stuff is
[43:52] getting and where they think the world
[43:54] is going. On the right, it reads, "The
[43:56] assertion that disruptive AI does not
[43:58] require artificial general intelligence,
[44:00] so AGI, but rather good enough
[44:03] technology deployed at scale highlights
[44:05] a critical, often overlooked reality.
[44:07] Industrial disruption is driven by cost,
[44:09] speed, and ubiquity, not just peak
[44:11] human-level capability. So, the point is
[44:14] people are starting to realize we don't
[44:15] need AGI to disrupt the world. All we
[44:18] need is the tools that are exist today
[44:20] at scale.
[44:22] Like I'm telling you,
[44:24] I'm developing software with my mouth.
[44:27] I'm not I don't ever touch my keyboard.
[44:31] And And And here's the thing. Let me
[44:33] say,
[44:34] and I've said this before in prior
[44:35] episodes, but I feel it's important to
[44:37] reiterate. I don't find this dystopian.
[44:41] You know, you you really are if
[44:43] it's it's you are what you want to be.
[44:45] If you want to be a victim, be a victim.
[44:47] You have every excuse to be a victim.
[44:49] You could say, "Oh, the phones in our
[44:51] pocket and the social media networks and
[44:53] the AI, it's so dystopian and I miss the
[44:55] world where everyone had more human
[44:58] interaction. Blah blah blah blah blah."
[45:00] Sure, you want to be a victim, you could
[45:01] be a victim. No one's stopping you. Do
[45:03] you have plenty of excuses to be a
[45:04] victim and pout like a little baby.
[45:07] You could also be empowered. What is AI
[45:09] AI? AI is bringing down the marginal
[45:12] cost of intelligence, the marginal cost
[45:14] of software, the marginal cost of
[45:17] being an accountant, medical, lawyer.
[45:21] So, legal, medical, finance,
[45:24] intelligence, and software. The core
[45:26] five things that you need to achieve
[45:28] anything in your life
[45:31] are worth effectively zero or as close
[45:33] to zero as they'll ever be.
[45:35] And what's left? What's left is the
[45:37] creative expression of being human.
[45:40] So, I've said
[45:41] many a times and I'll do a presentation
[45:43] at some point, maybe the next conference
[45:45] I go to in Long Forum. I expect Bitcoin
[45:47] and AI to usher in a new art
[45:49] renaissance. Because if you have the
[45:52] money that you can actually save that
[45:54] can't be debased. Because the problem
[45:56] today is
[45:58] you know, a doctor is only spending 50%
[46:01] of his or her time focusing on being a
[46:03] doctor and they're spending spending the
[46:05] other 50% of their time being a
[46:06] speculator cuz they have to be.
[46:09] If you're being compensated in a
[46:11] currency that's being debased and you're
[46:12] living through highly inflationary times
[46:14] because of fiat,
[46:15] then you have to download Robinhood,
[46:18] punt on stocks, understand central bank
[46:20] monetary policy, try and listen to this
[46:22] show and understand what the [ __ ] is
[46:23] going on instead of just division of
[46:25] labor and focusing on your craft.
[46:27] And so, for one, Bitcoin will allow us
[46:30] to be more future-oriented, lower our
[46:32] time preference, not spend our time
[46:34] panicking and speculating like a bunch
[46:36] of gamblers, and become savers.
[46:39] And then AI will remove our
[46:42] uh need to do white-collar mundane
[46:45] labor.
[46:47] You don't have to do all the accounting
[46:49] work. You don't have to do all the
[46:51] manual nursing work. You don't have to
[46:53] write all the legal documents. You don't
[46:55] have to write all the software. You get
[46:57] to be the creator, the artist.
[47:00] I think AI empowers the artist and I've
[47:01] said this before, I consider my job
[47:03] largely an art. I mean, what do I do for
[47:05] a living? Whether it's podcasts, whether
[47:07] it's tweets, whether it's products,
[47:09] whether it's companies, whether it's TV
[47:12] segments, I'm trying to convey
[47:14] information. I'm trying to relate to
[47:15] people. I'm trying to inspire people.
[47:17] I'm trying to uh revolutionize
[47:21] a group of people towards a better
[47:23] world, right? It's an It's an art. How
[47:25] to connect with you guys? How to relay
[47:28] information? How to inspire? How to
[47:31] galvanize? Um how to encourage?
[47:34] It's an art. And AI's made me a better
[47:37] artist.
[47:38] I mean, I I can do I
[47:41] Keynotes used to take me months to
[47:42] prepare and they were painful. It was
[47:44] like putting an artist in the studio and
[47:47] forcing them to record an album. It was
[47:49] painful. Like, how do I inspire myself?
[47:52] And you go back and forth and one good
[47:54] idea took me like days in slide format
[47:57] to puke out and then I realized I hated
[47:59] it and I have to scrap it and start
[48:00] over. And now it's made me such a better
[48:02] artist.
[48:04] It's easier to express myself. It's
[48:06] easier to explore and the marginal cost
[48:08] for me to get more intelligence, get
[48:11] more engineering is like nothing. I'm
[48:13] paying a thousand bucks a month for all
[48:15] my AI accounts.
[48:16] And I don't touch my keyboard anymore.
[48:19] [ __ ] crazy. And I run two massive
[48:21] companies.
[48:23] It's crazy.
[48:25] Anyway. So, um this from the Microsoft
[48:29] AI CEO.
[48:30] He said,
[48:32] I mean, this is crazy. Most, if not all
[48:34] professional tasks for lawyers,
[48:36] accountants, project managers, and
[48:38] marketing professionals will be fully
[48:40] automated by AI within the next 12 to 18
[48:42] months.
[48:44] And here's the thing, if that's true,
[48:47] then
[48:48] there is a crisis brewing.
[48:51] The level of unemployment is insane. And
[48:54] here's the thing, guys. You say, "Well,
[48:55] why is that such a big deal? What if
[48:56] everyone went to the park and ate
[48:58] Butterfingers all day? Why is that a
[48:59] problem?" Well, the problem is all of
[49:02] these people have credit cards, have
[49:03] mortgages, have car notes, have student
[49:05] debt. We live in a fiat world. We live
[49:08] in a debt-based monetary system. How are
[49:11] they going to pay that back? And if no
[49:13] one has a job and all of the jobs are
[49:16] done by a robot,
[49:19] well, then who's paying taxes to the
[49:20] government to service its $40 trillion
[49:22] of debt?
[49:25] So, if the government has no more tax
[49:27] receipts to service its debt, the point
[49:29] is there's just loads and loads and
[49:30] loads of debt. And the loads and loads
[49:32] and loads of debt are presumably being
[49:34] paid back by siphoning off our time and
[49:36] energy. We get up, we go to work, the
[49:38] government takes that from us to service
[49:40] its debt. And if everyone's like, "Oh,
[49:42] well, my AI does everything I need, and
[49:46] it's bringing the cost of everything
[49:48] down. I actually don't need that much
[49:49] money to service a lifestyle." Well,
[49:51] then we're going in an extreme sovereign
[49:53] debt crisis because everyone's
[49:55] unemployed.
[49:58] So,
[49:59] again, crisis. And there's I'll get I
[50:03] won't frontrun myself. Let me just get
[50:04] through these slides. So, um head
[50:07] research of at Anthropic also resigned.
[50:10] And you guys should go to this tweet. I
[50:11] won't read this one, but it's it's
[50:13] crazy. He's like
[50:15] I will read one part. Um
[50:19] I'll read the third paragraph.
[50:20] Nevertheless, it is clear to me that the
[50:22] time has come to move on. I continuously
[50:25] find myself reckoning with our
[50:27] situation. The world is in peril,
[50:30] and not just from AI or bioweapons, but
[50:34] from a whole series of interconnected
[50:37] crisis unfolding in this very moment. We
[50:40] appear to be approaching a threshold
[50:42] where our wisdom must grow in equal
[50:44] measure to our capacity to affect the
[50:47] world, lest we face the consequences.
[50:50] Moreover, throughout my time here, I've
[50:52] repeatedly seen how hard it is to truly
[50:56] let our values
[50:58] uh
[50:59] let our values govern our actions.
[51:02] I've seen this within myself, within the
[51:05] organization where we constantly face
[51:07] pressure to set aside what matters most,
[51:10] and throughout broader society, too.
[51:13] So, these AI leaders are having like
[51:15] existential crisis. So, this guy writes
[51:18] this note, which basically says he's
[51:20] going to go move to the UK and write
[51:22] poems and pursue creative artistry and
[51:26] disappear.
[51:29] >> [laughter]
[51:30] >> Um
[51:32] Anyways, back to what you guys care
[51:33] about. Debt system needs jobs. So, this
[51:36] visual is just it's just a fact. This is
[51:39] true interest expense as a percentage of
[51:40] US tax receipts.
[51:42] So, it's
[51:43] you know, tax receipts meaning they're
[51:45] collecting taxes from the people via
[51:48] capital gains. So, assets go up, people
[51:51] you sell those assets to
[51:53] do stuff in the economy, and they take
[51:56] capital gain tax receipt or the tax
[51:58] receipts from income.
[52:00] So, the
[52:01] core tax receipts drive an ability to
[52:04] cover the true interest expense.
[52:06] And you can see US true interest expense
[52:08] as a percentage US tax receipts rise.
[52:11] Half of our So, I have on the bottom
[52:12] left there, 50%. Half of our receipts
[52:15] are tied to employment.
[52:17] So, AI pressures the base of this
[52:19] pyramid. It's starting to become very
[52:22] fragile. If in 12 to 18 months all
[52:25] white-collar is eviscerated and entirely
[52:28] disrupted, then the pyramid that the
[52:31] United States has built is falling apart
[52:33] completely.
[52:35] And stress shows up in consumers.
[52:37] Um I write elite overproduction is
[52:39] causing societal stress. So,
[52:41] delinquencies are rising, and if AI is
[52:43] disrupting, then delinquencies are an
[52:45] early tell that this is already
[52:46] happening. I've talked about elite
[52:48] overproduction from the book The End
[52:50] Times, but I will just read the
[52:52] screenshot from Wikipedia to remind you
[52:54] guys. Elite overproduction is a concept
[52:56] developed by Peter Turchin that
[52:58] describes the condition of a of a
[52:59] society that has an excess supply of
[53:02] potential elite members relative to its
[53:04] ability to absorb them into the power
[53:06] structure. This he hypothesized
[53:09] hypothesizes is a cause for social
[53:11] instability.
[53:13] So,
[53:14] the whole thesis is that
[53:16] a collapsing empire, okay?
[53:21] It There are two core KPIs that show
[53:24] it's about to collapse or is collapsing.
[53:26] One is real wage growth. So, when wage
[53:29] growth starts to decline in real terms,
[53:31] so that people's salaries are getting
[53:33] them less groceries, affording them less
[53:35] family, less housing, less energy, less
[53:37] vacations, less everything, that that
[53:41] causes societal distress as people are
[53:43] working harder and getting less, okay?
[53:46] And the other is this concept of elite
[53:47] overproduction, which is extremely
[53:49] fascinating because what he describes as
[53:52] elite are university-educated people
[53:56] that want to be Wall Street hedge fund
[53:58] managers, want to be tech CEOs, want to
[54:01] be rising star politicians. And the
[54:04] problem is not everyone can be that.
[54:07] Now, it sounds crazy me saying that as a
[54:09] 31-year-old in the United States because
[54:11] everyone my age thinks that's what life
[54:13] is all about. Why? Cuz there is no
[54:16] blue-collar work. There is no manual
[54:18] labor labor work. If you don't have a
[54:19] university degree, you're poor and you
[54:22] have no future life according to, you
[54:24] know, anyone in in the dense populace of
[54:27] the United States, if they like that's
[54:29] just been our reality.
[54:31] All of the manual labor jobs, like if,
[54:34] you know, mining rare earths in the
[54:36] United States paid you as much as as a
[54:38] Google engineer,
[54:40] then I'm sure that people would say,
[54:42] "Ah, screw it. I'm good on going to
[54:44] university. I'll I'll just get my hands
[54:46] dirty, mine some rare earths, and make a
[54:47] living."
[54:49] But that's just not There There is no
[54:50] such thing.
[54:52] And so, what you have is everyone is
[54:54] forced into university degrees. You have
[54:56] this concept of elite overproduction
[54:58] where everyone is aspiring for positions
[55:02] in society there aren't enough of them.
[55:05] So, what you get is these are typically
[55:08] who are the revolutionaries.
[55:10] These youthful, well-educated,
[55:13] well-articulate, well-coordinated group
[55:15] of people end up saying, "Fuck this
[55:17] system.
[55:19] What a sick joke. Convince me to get up
[55:22] to my eyeballs in debt. I've got a
[55:24] mortgage, I've got student debt, I've
[55:26] got a car note, I've got credit card
[55:27] debt,
[55:29] all for me to get fired because Elon's
[55:31] robots took my job.
[55:33] [ __ ] this socialism."
[55:36] That That is elite overproduction.
[55:39] And elite overproduction is a result of
[55:41] all this fiat garbage. No blue-collar
[55:43] jobs, and then, you know, a deflationary
[55:46] technology should be good for all of us.
[55:48] A deflationary technology should bring
[55:50] the price down of everything that we
[55:52] want to consume. And it has for me. My
[55:54] life is amazing because of AI. I'm a far
[55:57] better artist, a far better podcaster, a
[55:59] far better CEO, a far better everything.
[56:02] But I mean
[56:04] I mean, these are the And mind you, I
[56:06] don't want to get too dark, but who I
[56:08] just described, these like
[56:10] university-educated
[56:12] but disenfranchised,
[56:14] you know,
[56:15] people, these are also the people that
[56:17] have been picking up guns and shooting
[56:19] people, right?
[56:22] I mean
[56:24] Anyway, we move on. So, this is how AI
[56:28] leads to money printing, what I've been
[56:30] talking about. So, AI is disruption,
[56:33] that leads to employment numbers coming
[56:35] down, which we now have officially seen
[56:37] the revised numbers for 2025, over 1
[56:39] million. That's outrageous, which brings
[56:41] the government's tax receipts down,
[56:43] which brings our debt stress up as a
[56:46] country, which brings market stress up,
[56:48] markets crash, and that's when they
[56:50] print the money. So, I would say we are
[56:53] somewhere along this line. We are not at
[56:56] the money printing yet, but we are
[56:58] probably like 3 to 6 months from the
[57:00] money printing,
[57:01] I would say. I would say we're one to
[57:04] two quarters from the money printing if
[57:06] I had to guess. I mean, listen, I No one
[57:08] knows the future. I'm wrong all the
[57:09] time. So, you know, don't get it
[57:12] tattooed on your forehead. But this is
[57:14] how this is the dominoes.
[57:16] So, we went through the dominoes of how
[57:18] Japan causes a market crash, and this is
[57:20] how AI causes a market crash. And when
[57:22] you have them both at the same time, you
[57:24] start getting Bitcoin flying to the
[57:26] downside and sending a warning shot, a
[57:29] liquidity smoke alarm across everyone's
[57:32] computer screen. You see the Mag 7
[57:34] getting absolutely hammered. It explains
[57:36] why gold is catching a bid and sovereign
[57:39] paper is getting rotated out of. I mean,
[57:42] I I think a crisis is brewing. And so,
[57:45] to end it, Bitcoin's the liquidity
[57:46] thermometer, deflation first, print
[57:48] later. So, where are we with Bitcoin?
[57:50] We're at the turn on your DCAs, guys.
[57:53] You know, I expect Bitcoin to Can it
[57:55] make another low? Can it come lower than
[57:57] What What's our low recently? 60K? I
[57:59] don't even know. Something like that?
[58:01] Can it go lower? Yeah, 100%. Will it?
[58:03] I've no idea.
[58:05] What I look at I look at
[58:07] you know, certain set of charts and data
[58:09] to give me a sense of
[58:11] you know, what you want lows are rarely
[58:13] made like in a flash instance. And I'm
[58:16] not talking about like the literal low.
[58:18] I'm talking about the general chapter of
[58:21] the bear market. Um it for me, it's turn
[58:24] on your DCAs. You know, I'm I never have
[58:26] the expectation that I'm going to pick
[58:27] off the pico bottom, right? Of course.
[58:30] For me, it's how can I, you know, what
[58:33] can I sell in my life? Like I'm actively
[58:36] looking around like what can I sell? How
[58:38] can I get some liquidity for myself and
[58:40] turn turn on the DCAs? Turn all my my
[58:43] paychecks come into strike, they get
[58:45] converted into Bitcoin, turn on my DCAs.
[58:47] And so, Bitcoin MVRV at 0.5,
[58:50] traditionally the the absolute bottoms
[58:53] are when that reaches below zero. So,
[58:55] we're getting really, really close. Only
[58:57] 5.3% of days have seen the Bitcoin Mayer
[58:59] Multiple at a lower level. So, yes,
[59:02] Bitcoin price can go lower.
[59:04] But again, at what point you turn on
[59:06] your DCA and start stacking sats? I
[59:08] mean, I think now is that time. And this
[59:12] one was really interesting. This is the
[59:13] business cycle
[59:15] and the liquidity cycles paired with
[59:17] Bitcoin.
[59:18] And it it's point is liquidity right now
[59:22] is not abundant. Liquidity is stressed.
[59:25] The business cycle we really Main Street
[59:28] has been in a recession since Liberation
[59:30] Week, basically. Um or or even before
[59:33] that is the point and that it's starting
[59:35] to turn up again and the economy is
[59:37] starting to get hot. GDP GDP numbers
[59:41] economic numbers are actually looking
[59:42] really good. And so uh
[59:45] it's saying that you know Bitcoin is
[59:47] probably bottoming out if you look at
[59:50] its history and its relationship to the
[59:52] business cycle. So
[59:54] you know, where are we at with Bitcoin?
[59:56] I think you've got I don't know weeks to
[59:59] months to turn on a DCA and get Bitcoin
[60:01] at extremely relatively cheap prices
[60:04] before
[60:05] big printing comes because of some
[60:07] crisis.
[60:08] Because of some crisis.
[60:11] Um okay, I'm excited for for this
[60:13] section. Hold on. I got a message. It
[60:15] might be from Dylan.
[60:17] Nope.
[60:20] I think Dylan's off today. Um okay.
[60:23] So
[60:24] uh I don't know so this is a new section
[60:26] of the show. So bear with me here. I
[60:28] think it sounded funny.
[60:31] Um so you guys
[60:33] here's my pitch on the section. But
[60:35] you'll you let me know the feedback in
[60:37] the chat and in the comments.
[60:38] You guys uh seem to like when I go on
[60:41] these like rants. Someone asks a
[60:43] question in the chat and I think it's
[60:45] stupid and I just go off and I start
[60:47] cursing and getting all fired up.
[60:49] And you guys seem to think that's
[60:50] hilarious. And so it reminded me of I
[60:54] grew up a Family Guy kid. So you know,
[60:57] growing up in my house my dad and I
[60:59] would always watch Family Guy. And it
[61:00] reminded me of uh Peter Griffin had this
[61:04] segment in Family Guy called Grind My
[61:07] Gears. Um I'll just play the first bit
[61:09] of this clip here. Uh
[61:11] Shout out to all the Family Guy fans out
[61:13] there. I I was a huge Family Guy kid.
[61:16] Yeah, save your money, Chuck. This place
[61:18] doesn't have porn. They think it's
[61:19] immoral. You know, that really grinds my
[61:22] gears. Where exactly in the Bible does
[61:24] it say a man can't fire off some knuckle
[61:26] children in the privacy of his own
[61:27] neighbor's living room while his
[61:28] neighbor's at work because I don't have
[61:29] a DVD player? Well, I don't know where
[61:31] it says it because the Bible is way too
[61:33] long to read. Hey, that was quite a rant
[61:35] there. You know, we're looking for an
[61:36] everyman to rant about petty nonsensical
[61:38] irritants to replace our spotlight on
[61:40] the Middle East segment.
[61:41] >> In other [music] news, after several
[61:42] grueling days of frightening
[61:43] uncertainty, I finally get my period.
[61:45] >> Well, Diane, I'm sure you and your
[61:47] brother must be devastated by the loss
[61:48] of the two-headed offspring that might
[61:50] have been. We now go to Peter Griffin
[61:52] for you know what really grinds my
[61:53] gears. Thanks, Tom. You know what really
[61:56] grinds my gears? Nobody's come up with a
[61:58] new priest and a rabbi joke in like 30
[62:00] years, you know? I mean, okay, uh uh
[62:03] priest and a rabbi go go into the
[62:04] supermarket and the priest wants to buy
[62:06] a ham and the rabbi says, "I can't eat
[62:08] it. I can't it's forbidden. Couldn't eat
[62:10] it. Not allowed. Pig pigs are like
[62:12] superheroes to them. Is it perfect? No.
[62:14] But I don't see you coming up with
[62:15] anything."
[62:16] And that, people, is what grinds my
[62:18] gears. Tom.
[62:19] Okay. So whatever. It reminds me of this
[62:22] Family Guy section where Peter ends up
[62:24] going on the news and having a news
[62:26] segment called, "You know what really
[62:28] grinds my gears?" And so I figured I
[62:32] would I would have my own version of
[62:33] that. So welcome to the first ever
[62:37] Oop. First ever what really grinds my
[62:40] gears where I pick a few things over the
[62:42] last week that really grinds my gears
[62:45] and just rant about it. And you guys
[62:47] give me feedback. Let me know if you
[62:49] think that this is funny. But um some
[62:52] things really piss me off. And uh I'm
[62:56] always ranting to Dylan about it. And
[62:58] when I was reading the comments section,
[62:59] I was like, "Honestly, I might as well
[63:00] make a segment out of this." Okay, you
[63:02] know what really grinds my gears?
[63:05] The people that tell you how to use
[63:08] Bitcoin. And they Sorry, this is not a
[63:11] kid-friendly version of the show. Kids,
[63:13] time to leave and go to bed. Parents,
[63:15] time to turn the show off if you got
[63:17] your kids listening cuz you know, when I
[63:19] start to get going, the curse words fly.
[63:21] I'm sorry sorry not sorry, okay?
[63:24] You know what grinds my gears? Is the
[63:26] people that [ __ ] and moan and complain
[63:30] that
[63:31] you're not using Bitcoin how they want
[63:35] you to use Bitcoin.
[63:36] So this I got tagged in a million times.
[63:40] It The text is really small. Let's see
[63:41] if I can zoom in here.
[63:44] This "We are not winning, but we can. If
[63:47] we want to win, we have to fight and
[63:49] ridicule custodial exchanges,
[63:51] stablecoins, ETFs, treasury companies,
[63:53] and Bitcoin-backed loans.
[63:55] All of these things are the opposite of
[63:57] the vision that the cypherpunks are
[63:59] founding fathers made. The United States
[64:01] of America is where it is today because
[64:03] Americans forgot the vision of its
[64:05] founders and the Constitution." And it
[64:08] goes on to just [ __ ] and moan and
[64:11] complain.
[64:12] "I don't like the way you're using
[64:14] Bitcoin. You shouldn't be using loans.
[64:17] You shouldn't be using" It's like, "Oh
[64:19] my god, shut the [ __ ] up." It's so
[64:23] insane to me that these self-declared
[64:26] libertarians and self-sovereign people
[64:29] that believe fundamentally in property
[64:31] rights get so wound up to tell other
[64:35] people how to use their property.
[64:39] Here's the thing, guys. Bitcoin uniquely
[64:41] enables anyone to do what they want,
[64:44] including I can't send gold to the other
[64:47] side of the world without depositing it
[64:50] to a central
[64:51] uh party. Without trusting a central
[64:53] party. That's why gold failed. Gold
[64:54] failed cuz it can't scale to an internet
[64:57] economy cuz I got to deposit it to a
[65:00] bank, to a government, to a central bank
[65:02] in order for me to send it on the
[65:03] internet.
[65:04] Bitcoin allows you to hold itself
[65:06] custodially, to move it without the
[65:09] permission of anyone else. But if you
[65:11] want to deposit it on an exchange, get a
[65:15] loan, of course you're allowed to do
[65:17] WHATEVER THE [ __ ] YOU WANT. It's the
[65:18] equivalent of "I don't like the way that
[65:21] you're using your house." Well, guess
[65:23] what? It's my [ __ ] house. I don't
[65:26] give a [ __ ] what you think about how I
[65:28] use my house. It's my house. It's my
[65:31] property. Shut the [ __ ] up. Do us all a
[65:35] favor and stop whining and complaining.
[65:38] Here's the other thing.
[65:39] If creating an ETF or someone creating a
[65:42] custodial exchange or someone offering a
[65:44] Bitcoin-backed loan was the death of
[65:46] Bitcoin, then Bitcoin was never destined
[65:48] to succeed in the first place. If enough
[65:51] people do not want to protect the core
[65:54] principles of Bitcoin and what makes it
[65:56] valuable, then Bitcoin's going to fail.
[65:58] And I'm not saying people shouldn't
[66:00] advocate for what they believe in.
[66:01] There's a huge difference between
[66:04] "Hey,
[66:05] I believe self-custody is important. I
[66:08] believe in holding your own keys." Which
[66:10] I think that's First of all, I'm quoting
[66:12] myself. We say this at Strike all the I
[66:14] don't want to to any Bitcoin on our
[66:16] platform. But to just [ __ ] and moan and
[66:19] complain every time I open my social
[66:22] media mentions and it's like, "Hey,
[66:24] Jack, take a look at this. Read this."
[66:26] Oh yeah, thanks, bright guy. I started
[66:28] and run two of the biggest Bitcoin
[66:29] companies in the world, but it wasn't
[66:31] until you dropped a mention in my Nostr
[66:34] mentions for me to read, "Oh, thank
[66:37] you."
[66:39] Get a [ __ ] grip. Serious. It It
[66:43] grinds my gears to no end. On what
[66:46] planet do you have the right to tell
[66:48] people how to use their property?
[66:50] Bitcoin is money for everyone. It drives
[66:52] me nuts. All day people tweet at me, "I
[66:55] don't like the way you're using Bitcoin.
[66:58] I don't like the way I don't like that
[67:00] BlackRock has an ETF. I really Oh, it
[67:03] really bothers me." Shut the [ __ ] up.
[67:06] Shut the [ __ ] Shut up. Use Bitcoin
[67:10] however you want to use Bitcoin. As long
[67:12] as you're following the consensus rules
[67:15] and we're advocating and maintaining the
[67:16] core principles of the asset. If someone
[67:19] wants to take a loan against Bitcoin,
[67:20] people say, "Jack, why don't you spend
[67:23] your Bitcoin?" Because where I live,
[67:25] they don't accept Bitcoin.
[67:28] Shut the [ __ ] up.
[67:30] Oh, it drives me nuts. It
[67:33] It's so It's so antithesis
[67:37] of the whole point of Bitcoin. The whole
[67:38] point of Bitcoin is property rights for
[67:40] everyone. I do what I want with my
[67:42] property. I would never say tell
[67:44] someone, "I don't like the way that you
[67:46] use your kitchen. I don't like the way
[67:48] that you use your house." It's not my
[67:50] house. Why would I give a [ __ ] how
[67:53] someone else uses their property?
[67:56] Oh.
[67:58] It drives me nuts.
[68:00] It does.
[68:02] Guess what?
[68:03] Bitcoin-backed loans have changed my
[68:06] life.
[68:07] They've allowed me to acquire more
[68:09] Bitcoin than I otherwise would have
[68:11] acquired and I've sold less Bitcoin than
[68:14] I otherwise have had to sell.
[68:16] Things like the line of credit that
[68:18] we're about to roll out have changed my
[68:20] life.
[68:22] If you don't want to use it, then just
[68:24] don't use it. You just complain and
[68:27] [ __ ] and moan. And then these people
[68:29] create enemies out of people like me.
[68:31] Dude, get Hey, jackass, I've never held
[68:34] a gun to your head and said you need to
[68:36] use a loan or you need to use a
[68:38] custodial exchange. Do whatever you
[68:39] want. Do us all a favor and shut the
[68:42] [ __ ] up. Oh my god. It's so It's ridic
[68:48] Oh my god. These
[68:51] >> [laughter]
[68:52] >> These custodial exchanges, Jack and
[68:54] Strike, and their Bitcoin loans, they're
[68:56] ruining Bitcoin and I just can't stand
[68:58] it. I just I'm making me want to cry. I
[69:00] need a hug.
[69:01] Shut the [ __ ] up.
[69:04] >> [sighs]
[69:05] >> Oh my god.
[69:07] Okay.
[69:08] >> [laughter]
[69:10] >> Next episode of You Know What Really
[69:11] Grinds My Gears.
[69:13] People that complain about our
[69:15] Bitcoin-backed lending product that
[69:17] don't understand it. Okay, so this dude
[69:21] posts So I put out an FYI that we had
[69:24] changed some of our terms on our loan
[69:26] product to benefit the Bitcoiner. Okay,
[69:29] so we give you 3 days now to post
[69:31] collateral once you're in a margin call.
[69:34] And what people people didn't even know,
[69:36] we don't fully liquidate Bitcoin.
[69:39] If we need to liquidate some of your
[69:40] Bitcoin, we only liquidate enough to get
[69:44] you to a healthy state. So, we will
[69:46] never sell your entire Bitcoin
[69:48] collateral. We'll sell a tiny little
[69:50] portion to get you back healthy. And so,
[69:52] the combination of giving you more time
[69:54] and only selling a little bit to get you
[69:55] back healthy allows the price to rebound
[69:58] and gives you time to either get more
[70:00] collateral or for the price to get you
[70:01] back up.
[70:03] So, it's a really good good change. And
[70:05] I post this FYI. And this guy says, "Got
[70:07] to say, the worst narrative in this bear
[70:09] market has been that Strike and others
[70:11] are intentionally trying to steal users'
[70:14] Bitcoin with this dump. If that was
[70:17] true, they wouldn't operate this way."
[70:20] And I wrote, "Genuine question. Do
[70:22] people actually believe this? To state
[70:25] the obvious, my business incentive is to
[70:28] keep the loan open for as long as
[70:30] possible. I get paid servicing my
[70:32] customer. {quote} Taking their Bitcoin
[70:35] and {quote} onto my balance sheet would
[70:37] be about the dumbest way imaginable for
[70:40] me to acquire Bitcoin. If I want to buy
[70:42] Bitcoin at these levels, which I do
[70:44] every day regardless of the price, I buy
[70:47] Bitcoin with our profit. We don't lend
[70:50] out cash from our balance sheet because
[70:52] we don't want to own billions of dollars
[70:54] of fiat. Strike owns as much Bitcoin as
[70:56] possible. We lend out fiat that we got
[71:00] from somebody else. So, when a loan gets
[71:02] liquidated, it's because I owe the cash
[71:05] back to someone who gave me the cash. If
[71:08] the customer defaults, I have to sell
[71:10] the Bitcoin to get back the cash to the
[71:13] person that lent me the cash. So, what
[71:16] do I want? What's my business incentive?
[71:18] I want Bitcoiners to have healthy loans
[71:20] and never sell forever. I buy Bitcoin
[71:23] with the money I earn providing the
[71:25] service. Duh. You know what really
[71:28] grinds my gears? People that critique
[71:31] and yell about something they don't
[71:33] understand. They say, "Wait, wait a
[71:34] second. You owe someone else fiat?" Yes,
[71:38] you [ __ ] idiot. Here's how it works.
[71:42] >> [laughter]
[71:42] >> I can't tell if this segment's going to
[71:44] be like really really loved or really
[71:46] really hated. Whatever.
[71:49] Listen up, [ __ ] Here's how it works.
[71:52] If someone wants a $100 loan, I borrow
[71:55] $100 from somebody else. I'm not lending
[71:59] out my own fiat cuz I don't want
[72:01] billions of dollars of fiat.
[72:03] I'm the connector. I found I find people
[72:06] who want to lend out fiat and I find
[72:08] Bitcoiners who want to borrow fiat. And
[72:10] I connect them and I have the licenses
[72:12] and the platform and the risk management
[72:14] and all of that to provide the service.
[72:16] That's what I do. So, I borrow $100 from
[72:19] someone else and I lend you that $100.
[72:22] And I make money by let's say they
[72:24] charge me X percent and I charge X
[72:26] percent plus one. So, I'm making 1% for
[72:29] brokering and providing the service.
[72:31] So, I have a collection of Bitcoiners
[72:33] that want to borrow against Bitcoin and
[72:35] I have a collection of fiat people that
[72:37] want to lend out fiat and get a return.
[72:40] So, if someone defaults on their loan, I
[72:42] have to sell the Bitcoin because I owe
[72:45] them the $100. If Okay, I borrow $100
[72:48] from somebody and I lend it to a
[72:50] Bitcoiner. If the Bitcoiner never pays
[72:52] me back and they default, then I have to
[72:54] sell the Bitcoin cuz I owe that guy
[72:55] $100. To think that I'm stealing your
[72:58] Bitcoin, you are a [ __ ] idiot. You do
[73:01] not understand how this works. It's
[73:03] insane. And listen, I'm not being woe is
[73:06] me. It's It's man in the arena. It comes
[73:08] with the territory. Honestly, when
[73:10] Bitcoin gets in bear markets, people
[73:11] hate me. You don't like the way I look.
[73:13] You don't like my hair. Got a haircut
[73:15] though. You guys tell? Ladies, keep it
[73:17] together. Whatever. You don't like the
[73:18] closet. You know, people get upset when
[73:20] the Bitcoin price is down. It's easier
[73:21] to blame the 31-year-old in the empty
[73:24] closet that that you feel like you know
[73:26] than it is to blame yourself. And it's
[73:28] It comes with the territory. It's fine.
[73:30] I'm not complaining about that. But it
[73:32] really grinds my gears when people
[73:35] accuse me of being a criminal or
[73:38] stealing people's Bitcoin when they
[73:40] don't even know how the service works.
[73:42] In fact, the way the service works,
[73:44] we're one of the only services in the
[73:46] world that doesn't liquidate all the
[73:48] Bitcoin. We liquidate a tiny fraction to
[73:50] keep you healthy. And we actually give
[73:52] you more and more and more time. We're
[73:53] working with you to allow the price to
[73:55] rebound rebound. But I don't have I
[73:59] can't I have to pay back the person that
[74:01] I borrowed from in the first place.
[74:04] So, you know what really grinds my gears
[74:05] is these people don't understand People
[74:08] will tweet at me and say, "Dude, why are
[74:10] you liquidating at all?" Hey, dumbass.
[74:13] Because I have to.
[74:16] Ugh.
[74:17] Grinds my gears to no end.
[74:22] Ugh, man.
[74:24] Oh, [ __ ] Let's see if uh
[74:27] Let's see if my AI can fix this slide.
[74:29] It's too zoomed in. Oh, no, I zoomed it
[74:31] in.
[74:33] There we go.
[74:34] Okay, last episode of you know what
[74:35] really grinds my gears today. You know
[74:37] what really grinds my gears? Pam Bondi.
[74:41] This dumbass who when asked about
[74:43] Jeffrey Epstein, she said, "Well, the
[74:45] Dow's over 50k right now. The Nasdaq's
[74:48] at all-time highs. We should be talking
[74:49] about that." Shut the [ __ ] up. That is
[74:53] such That is the most insane
[74:57] political statement I've ever heard.
[75:01] Hey, what about
[75:04] the most heinous
[75:06] black ring
[75:08] uh sex trafficking
[75:10] crime What What about the what the worst
[75:13] version of humanity is Epstein and
[75:15] everyone implicated in it? They It's the
[75:18] worst thing I've ever seen. Every single
[75:22] day that more of this [ __ ] comes out, I
[75:25] lose any amount of trust I had in any
[75:28] government, any central institution, any
[75:30] big corporation is evaporated. It's the
[75:33] most heinous version of mankind ever.
[75:37] And when asked about that, you talk
[75:39] about the [ __ ] Dow?
[75:42] Shut the [ __ ] up. And I I quote tweeted
[75:45] and I said, "The stock market is only
[75:47] smashing record if you measure it in
[75:49] dollars." Mind you, the thing that she
[75:51] wants us to focus on is down against
[75:53] Bitcoin, down against gold, is down
[75:55] against all the things that the
[75:56] government can't print. It's only
[75:58] smashing records in the things that the
[76:00] government can print because the
[76:02] government is printing those things, you
[76:04] idiot.
[76:06] It was pu Watching this made me vomit.
[76:11] What an idiot.
[76:13] It's so pathetic. This is such
[76:16] fourth-turning. It's outrageous. If you
[76:19] want to revolutionize the youth, let me
[76:20] tell you how you revolutionize the
[76:22] youth. Okay?
[76:24] People
[76:25] that are our age or younger or as we're
[76:29] attempting to have kids,
[76:31] we're watching stories
[76:33] of people
[76:35] that are raping, sexually abusing,
[76:38] murdering young children, sex
[76:41] trafficking young children.
[76:43] And these are the people that run the
[76:45] products we use, run the government in
[76:47] the nation-state that we live in,
[76:49] hiding secrets, blackmailing each other.
[76:53] Mind you, all these kids my age are
[76:56] taking out debt up to their eyeballs and
[76:59] there's no jobs for them because of AI.
[77:03] So, their currency's getting debased.
[77:06] They're unemployed.
[77:08] And they're living in a world where
[77:09] they're supposed to listen to rapist,
[77:12] crime smuggling, murderers, liars.
[77:17] So, Pam Bondi, shut the [ __ ] up.
[77:25] Ugh.
[77:25] >> [sighs]
[77:25] >> God.
[77:27] All right. And those are the three
[77:29] topics that really grind my gears this
[77:31] week. [laughter]
[77:34] We'll see if you guys really loved that
[77:36] segment or really hated it. But if you
[77:38] liked it, I'll I'll take a few topics
[77:41] over the week that just really grind my
[77:43] gears and I'll just let loose. And And
[77:46] by the way, you know,
[77:48] I'm I'm just busting balls on the
[77:50] internet, okay? If you're one of the
[77:52] people that was shouting at me and
[77:53] didn't understand how lending works,
[77:54] it's all love.
[77:56] Don't be a crybaby, you know.
[77:58] Don't throw stones at a glass house. I
[78:01] take I take my beatings to the chin and
[78:04] we all move on. It's okay.
[78:06] Um but uh it's all It's all good fun.
[78:09] I'm just busting balls. That's what
[78:10] really grinds my gears.
[78:14] Okay, I told myself I'd keep the company
[78:15] updates fairly brief uh for Strike.
[78:19] Um New York, I'm still waiting on New
[78:21] York. So, I'm sorry, guys. It's not up
[78:23] to me at this point. I reached out to
[78:25] New York. They said, "We're working on
[78:27] it." Um everything is signed. Uh I'm not
[78:30] going to get into the process of the
[78:31] BitLicense, but it's like one final
[78:33] thumbs up is what we're waiting on. And
[78:35] they said uh
[78:37] they're coming with it soon.
[78:39] And then uh the next big thing is line
[78:41] of credit. We've got all sorts of stuff
[78:42] rolling out. So, for those that aren't
[78:44] paying attention, we're almost in all
[78:45] the United States at this point. We got
[78:46] Texas last week, which was really really
[78:48] exciting. We're turning on businesses
[78:50] for California soon. So, looking forward
[78:52] to that. And then the next two big
[78:55] product launches we have, we have our
[78:56] line of credit product rolling out this
[78:58] month. So, over the coming weeks, really
[79:00] exciting. You know, one of the things
[79:02] for people that want to live on Bitcoin
[79:04] with Bitcoin-backed loans or just credit
[79:06] on top of Bitcoin, you know, you you
[79:08] might not want to take out a 12-month
[79:09] loan cuz then you got to take out a big
[79:10] chunk of cash and then you start getting
[79:12] worried about margin calls and
[79:13] liquidations and what if the price goes
[79:15] this way? Instead, if you can just, you
[79:17] know, a bill comes into Strike that you
[79:19] want to pay and And just extends a
[79:20] little line of credit. So, you're
[79:21] paying, you know, a couple thousand
[79:23] dollars worth of bills at a time. Your
[79:25] LTV is super healthy. You're not having
[79:26] to take out a massive size loan all at
[79:28] once. It's a far better user experience
[79:30] for people that don't need all that cash
[79:32] at once. They're not financing
[79:35] a down payment. They're not financing a
[79:36] wedding. They're not financing an
[79:37] emergency. They're just trying to live
[79:39] their life on their Bitcoins. And so,
[79:41] you know, that's how I live is I've got
[79:43] my direct deposit goes into Strike. I've
[79:45] got my bill pay hooked up to Strike. And
[79:47] I've got whatever some percentage of my
[79:49] Bitcoin stash that's not in cold storage
[79:51] sits on Strike and it collateralizes all
[79:53] the payments I need to make. So, if I
[79:55] want to go buy Bitcoin, I have a payment
[79:57] option of I could buy it with a line of
[79:59] credit. So, I have my bank account or my
[80:01] line of credit. I want to pay a bill, I
[80:02] can use my bank account, my Bitcoin
[80:04] balance, or my line of credit. And so,
[80:06] in that way my LTV is super healthy
[80:08] because I'm only spending like a month's
[80:10] worth of bills against collateralized
[80:13] against my Bitcoin. And then when my
[80:14] paychecks come in, I can decide, "Hey,
[80:16] do I want to pay some of this line of
[80:17] credit down? Or do I want to keep
[80:19] growing it?" But then I'm not taking out
[80:21] like one giant massive 12-month loan at
[80:23] a time. It's like a rolling line of
[80:24] credit. It enables people to live on
[80:27] Bitcoin credit um
[80:29] in a totally different user experience,
[80:31] which I'm very excited about. And then
[80:32] after that, will be our yield on cash
[80:34] product. So, I'm very excited to If you
[80:36] have cash and you want a return on that
[80:38] cash, how I talked about the way our
[80:40] lending product works is I connect
[80:42] people that want a return on their fiat
[80:45] with people that want to borrow against
[80:46] their Bitcoin. That's ultimately the
[80:48] business we're in. And if you want to
[80:50] put your fiat in that pool, so I can
[80:51] basically say, "Hey, you're going to get
[80:53] 6 7% 8% whatever we decide uh
[80:57] on your fiat dollars.
[81:00] And then whenever you want to withdraw
[81:01] it, you withdraw it. But we're basically
[81:03] able to afford you much more than, you
[81:06] know, a cash sweep program getting the
[81:08] interest rates that the Fed sets
[81:10] because, you know, Bitcoin uh back
[81:13] borrowers are paying these higher rates
[81:15] cuz they're, you know, Bitcoin the asset
[81:16] is performing and these are producers.
[81:18] So, those are the two products coming
[81:20] from Strike. And then from 21, um same
[81:23] update as always, we're working on the
[81:25] operating company, working towards uh an
[81:27] announcement, which uh I'm very excited
[81:28] about.
[81:29] So, with that, I'll do some Q&A. I got
[81:31] no Dylan, so I don't have a list of
[81:33] questions you guys have asked throughout
[81:35] the show.
[81:36] Um I will pull up Let's see.
[81:39] Let me uh
[81:41] Let me pull up my face here. Look at
[81:43] that haircut. Ladies, keep it together
[81:46] now. I'm just kidding.
[81:48] Uh and Let's see if I can get the chat
[81:51] also pulled up, I wonder.
[81:54] Let's see.
[81:57] If I can display the chat next to my
[81:59] face, we can do a little bit of live Q&A
[82:04] and call it an episode. Let's see here.
[82:07] I'm just
[82:10] Okay.
[82:12] There we go.
[82:16] Hm.
[82:23] Screen capture. Sorry, bear with me for
[82:26] a sec. Apologize.
[82:28] Not a professional.
[82:31] Kids, don't try this at home.
[82:34] Uh
[82:35] there we go.
[82:37] Okay.
[82:39] Now we've got
[82:41] oopsie daisies.
[82:44] Now we've got my face
[82:46] oops.
[82:49] There we go. My face next to
[82:52] the chat.
[82:53] Let's see. How mean are you guys being
[82:55] today?
[82:57] What questions I can answer.
[83:00] Uh
[83:01] all right. Let's go, chat.
[83:06] Bring it on.
[83:10] Um
[83:12] Jack, how does AI taking our jobs make
[83:14] the number go up?
[83:17] What?
[83:18] I hope AI doesn't take your job. Um it
[83:21] makes the number go up because they're
[83:23] going to have to print a lot of money as
[83:24] a result. So, when AI takes jobs and
[83:28] employment goes down, that means the
[83:30] receipts that the government is
[83:31] collecting from all of us goes down.
[83:34] Um that also means we also don't have
[83:36] money to invest in the stock market. So,
[83:38] let's say income uh employment receipts
[83:41] come down, capital gains receipts come
[83:43] down, that makes it harder for the US to
[83:45] service its debt and you get into this
[83:46] debt spiral. Um which will result in
[83:49] money printing or an utter and complete
[83:51] crisis uh austerity
[83:53] um and insolvency. So, that's why. Um
[83:56] all roads lead to them having to print a
[83:58] lot of money
[84:00] is the reality of the situation.
[84:02] That's That's how.
[84:05] Uh
[84:07] Let's see.
[84:10] Check
[84:12] XXY update.
[84:15] Um yeah, I I see you. You're just
[84:17] spamming XXY in the chat. XXY XXY. Uh
[84:20] what do you want me What do you want me
[84:22] to say about XXY?
[84:24] I told you guys uh my update.
[84:29] Um
[84:30] we're working on a bunch of exciting
[84:31] stuff, nothing that I'm uh willing to
[84:34] announce today.
[84:37] Sorry.
[84:40] Um
[84:42] Strike in Italy, will it be in 2026?
[84:44] Yes.
[84:45] We do expect Italy in 2026.
[84:49] Uh Jack, I'd really love to acquire more
[84:51] Bitcoin through your loan program, but
[84:52] 10.5 APR is too much. Any update on
[84:55] lowering your guys APR rate? Or is that
[84:57] rate going to stay? Well, so here's the
[84:59] thing. The problem is I'm limited to the
[85:02] people willing to lend Bitcoin lend
[85:04] dollars against Bitcoin, right? So, I
[85:06] again, I I connect with a bunch of
[85:08] people who are lending and then people
[85:10] who are borrowing.
[85:11] And finding capital
[85:13] at low rates to lend against Bitcoin.
[85:16] Listen, I would give you guys 3% if I
[85:18] could, but I can't cuz I'm not getting
[85:20] the dollars that cheap.
[85:23] So,
[85:24] I think that the market for borrowing
[85:26] against Bitcoin will always be a little
[85:28] bit higher than a mortgage rate, for
[85:30] example, because it's private capital.
[85:33] It's not government-subsidized Ponzi
[85:35] scheme money.
[85:36] Um but I think that Bitcoiners can
[85:39] afford it because Bitcoin historically
[85:41] has a CAGR way higher than the interest
[85:44] rate. And Bitcoiners are net producers
[85:46] by definition, right? They produce more
[85:50] than they consume, which means they have
[85:51] excess capital to save, which they buy
[85:53] and save in Bitcoin. So, you're talking
[85:55] about a cohort of people who are net
[85:57] producers.
[85:58] And then you're talking about an asset
[86:00] that's exceeding the interest rate. So,
[86:03] to compare, the CAGR of real estate is 2
[86:06] to 4%. A mortgage at, you know, 6 plus
[86:09] percent, the asset's not outperforming
[86:12] the interest rate. You know, Bitcoin
[86:13] over whatever duration you want to pick,
[86:16] um its CAGR is higher than 10%. So, 10
[86:18] and 1/2 is not bad, especially when you
[86:21] consider that the capital gains in the
[86:22] United States at cheapest is 20%. So,
[86:26] you've got long-term cap gains 20%,
[86:28] short-term cap gains 30%. So, what would
[86:31] you rather do? Pay 20 to 30% in taxes
[86:34] and lose your Bitcoin upside?
[86:36] Or borrow against it for 10%?
[86:39] That's why I think it's a no-brainer.
[86:40] That's why the product has grown so
[86:41] much. Only for those that want to do it.
[86:43] You know what grinds my gears is people
[86:46] that want to tell everyone else how to
[86:48] live their life. You don't have to use
[86:50] the product if you don't want to. And if
[86:52] you do use the product, you should do so
[86:53] responsibly.
[86:55] Um when personal loans in the UK, we're
[86:57] working on it. Um it just
[87:00] it's a matter of licensing and
[87:01] regulatory. It's tough.
[87:04] Um
[87:05] Obviously, I wish I can offer all of my
[87:08] products everywhere
[87:10] all at once. Um Will the line of credit
[87:12] be available for companies? Yes, 100%.
[87:15] Will absolutely be available for
[87:16] companies. Really excited about that.
[87:18] The line of credit to me is like the
[87:20] most
[87:21] innovative, revolutionary Bitcoin credit
[87:23] product ever because all anyone offers
[87:25] is like these 12-month loans cuz the
[87:27] capital that we're borrowing from has
[87:29] this 12-month duration to it. Or else I
[87:31] would give I'd love to give you guys a
[87:32] five-year Bitcoin loan. Just there's no
[87:34] such thing.
[87:36] So,
[87:37] um anyways, the line of credit's huge
[87:40] because instead of having to borrow a
[87:42] lump sum of cash for a year,
[87:44] you can just draw as you spend
[87:47] uh against your Bitcoin, which is
[87:48] amazing.
[87:50] Um really excited about that.
[87:53] Uh
[87:55] let's see.
[88:00] Shout out, Queen. Always in the chat,
[88:02] always supporting me. Jack, I just
[88:04] signed up Oh, [ __ ]
[88:06] Jack, I just signed up uh my new
[88:09] business account for Strike business and
[88:11] I don't want to have to use a regular
[88:12] fiat bank account. Do you have
[88:14] recommendations for how I can, for
[88:15] example, buy something at Amazon?
[88:18] Yeah, so what I do for both our business
[88:21] and myself personally is I just use
[88:23] credit cards.
[88:25] Cuz a credit card is like a free fiat
[88:27] loan.
[88:28] So, I get to spend fiat without actually
[88:30] having to own fiat.
[88:32] So, I go on Amazon, I buy whatever I
[88:34] need on Amazon, and then when I go to
[88:36] pay my credit card bill, I pay that with
[88:38] Strike. And then you can use the line of
[88:40] credit. So, let's say Let's say this.
[88:42] Let's say I have half a million dollars
[88:45] of Bitcoin on Strike.
[88:46] And I
[88:48] spend five grand 10 grand a month on,
[88:51] you know, my rent, my credit card bill,
[88:54] my electricity bill, you know, whatever,
[88:56] my car note. And that's all hooked up to
[88:58] Strike.
[88:59] Well, it's pretty straightforward,
[89:01] right? Like I'm going to be like when a
[89:04] bill comes in, Strike creates a little
[89:06] credit against the Bitcoin I have on the
[89:08] platform and pays the bill for me. And
[89:10] then sends me a notification, "Hey, your
[89:12] line of credit grew from $0 to $2,000,
[89:14] from $2,000 to $4,000." And then when my
[89:16] paychecks come in, I can decide, do I
[89:18] want any of these this paycheck to pay
[89:20] down that line of credit or do I want
[89:22] the line of credit to keep going? But
[89:23] then I don't have to borrow like
[89:24] $250,000 at once for 1 year's worth of
[89:27] spending and then Bitcoin bounces around
[89:29] and gets volatile. And so you're just
[89:31] using it as like a dynamic payment
[89:33] method. And so I spend everyday spending
[89:36] I do on credit cards
[89:38] as my way to kind of interface with the
[89:39] existing fiat world. So it's worked like
[89:42] a charm. It's incredible. And so for
[89:43] that reason I've actually been able to
[89:44] buy more Bitcoin cuz my paychecks, you
[89:47] know, anything that I don't pay down, I
[89:49] just convert into Bitcoin.
[89:52] So my paychecks are like constantly
[89:53] DCA'ing.
[89:55] And then it's helped me not sell
[89:57] Bitcoin. So instead of yes, the whatever
[90:00] 10% APR is high compared to a mortgage,
[90:04] but it's not high compared to capital
[90:05] gains or Bitcoin's typical return.
[90:08] So especially right now, I definitely
[90:10] don't want to be selling Bitcoin now.
[90:13] Uh
[90:15] On the biz line of credit, do you pay
[90:16] interest on your balance if you clear it
[90:18] monthly or is the interest only applied
[90:20] to the carryover balance?
[90:22] Uh we'll give out details soon. Um but
[90:25] uh
[90:26] the interest is accrued daily and what
[90:28] and once you pay it off it it erases. So
[90:31] it's a really really good product.
[90:33] Really good product. I'm really excited
[90:34] to get it out there. I think it's going
[90:36] to change the way
[90:37] you know, people are able to live on
[90:39] Bitcoin.
[90:41] Um
[90:43] What is
[90:44] What is three weeks next week mean?
[90:47] Uh
[90:49] I I think we do have personal lending in
[90:51] Ireland.
[90:52] This guy asked are there personal loans
[90:54] in Ireland? Uh we should have personal
[90:56] loans in Ireland.
[90:58] So check it out.
[91:02] Um
[91:04] okay.
[91:06] I think
[91:08] I think I'm done. We've been going for
[91:09] an hour and a half.
[91:12] Uh I have a stuffy nose.
[91:15] Okay.
[91:16] Oh damn, a bunch more just came in.
[91:21] Still hitting the links Jack? I do not
[91:24] play as much golf as I probably would if
[91:28] I wasn't so busy. That's okay.
[91:31] No worries.
[91:37] I don't know who Robert Duvall is.
[91:40] Am I supposed to know who that is?
[91:44] Um
[91:47] Cool.
[91:50] I mean a lot of these are just people
[91:51] keep spamming.
[91:57] Let's see.
[92:02] Let's hear about XXL, what a joke.
[92:05] Yeah, yeah, yeah. I've heard it all.
[92:08] Keep that same energy.
[92:12] Tether and I
[92:16] are excited about the future. That's all
[92:19] I'll say.
[92:20] Keep that energy, but keep it coming.
[92:22] Keep it coming.
[92:24] But you know, my haters
[92:26] really drive me.
[92:31] You know how many people said when we
[92:33] launched our Bitcoin lending product
[92:35] that I was a criminal, scammer, was
[92:38] going to blow up, blah blah blah blah
[92:39] blah.
[92:41] Just keep all the hate coming. It drives
[92:43] me. I really love it.
[92:45] I have a uh
[92:47] I have a folder on my computer of
[92:48] screenshots of all the people. And these
[92:51] sometimes these are people that like
[92:52] will come up to me at conferences and be
[92:54] like, "Hey man, like how's it going? I
[92:56] could really use a favor."
[92:58] I'm like, "Aren't you the guy on Twitter
[92:59] that just called me a criminal?"
[93:03] So I keep a folder of it all.
[93:05] I really do.
[93:07] Um all right.
[93:09] Uh with that, I think I should end it,
[93:12] honestly.
[93:13] Um
[93:15] I
[93:17] Yeah, I mean this Q&A is nothing without
[93:19] Dylan. It with the chat coming in in
[93:21] real time it's just impossible um to do.
[93:25] So um
[93:26] peace and love, you guys. Um sorry if
[93:29] some of these topics were a little
[93:30] redundant. I mean, what's happening in
[93:32] macro is what's happening in macro. It's
[93:34] not up to me. So uh it is what it is.
[93:38] It's uh Japan plus AI seems to be
[93:41] forming a bit of a crisis and Bitcoin is
[93:43] basically giving us a forewarning of
[93:45] that.
[93:46] So
[93:47] let me know if you guys have questions
[93:49] in the YouTube comments. Uh if there are
[93:52] certain parts of these topics that you
[93:54] want to dive deeper on or that you don't
[93:55] totally understand.
[93:57] Um get let me know what you thought
[93:59] about the you know what really grinds my
[94:01] gears uh segment.
[94:04] You know, that was probably part
[94:06] therapeutic for me to just be like, "God
[94:09] damn it, stop telling me how to use my
[94:11] own Bitcoin. I want a loan against my
[94:13] Bitcoin. [ __ ] sue me." Um and part of
[94:16] it also was just comedic value and maybe
[94:18] a little bit of education in there. So
[94:20] if you guys liked it, let me know. Um
[94:22] I'll I'll do one to three grind my gears
[94:25] topics next and then we'll have Dylan
[94:26] back next week for some Q&A. So as
[94:28] always, uh leave feedback. Appreciate
[94:30] you all. Hang in there. Turn on your
[94:32] DCAs. Lower your time preference. Hunker
[94:34] down. These are the moments legends are
[94:36] made. These are the moments where
[94:38] returns are built. Uh this is where to
[94:40] turn on your DCA, not financial advice,
[94:42] but at least that's that's my opinion.
[94:44] And uh I'll catch you guys uh next week.
[94:46] Hang in there. Uh stay safe. Stay
[94:48] healthy.
[94:49] Take care. Peace and love.