The AI Mid-Cycle Slowdown: OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Price War

[0:00] Um, lot to go through.
[0:03] [sighs]
[0:04] Obviously, the main thing is hopefully
[0:06] next week when I do this video, the next
[0:09] world will be world champions. Uh, and I
[0:12] get to enjoy it. But let's go on with
[0:15] the markets. Um,
[0:18] if you haven't listened to the Gavin
[0:19] Baker, Brad Gersonner, uh, interview, a
[0:21] lot of what I'm going to talk about can
[0:23] be summarized in in what they did. I
[0:25] thought they covered everything
[0:26] extremely well. And for those of you who
[0:28] are perma bearish, uh even though they
[0:30] are self-proclaimed AI pill and I guess
[0:33] I'm AI pilled as well from a power user
[0:36] perspective, theirs is from an
[0:37] investment perspective. Um I think the
[0:40] stories that I've been telling along
[0:42] with what they're getting. Um this is
[0:45] the signal that I give you guys in this
[0:48] week to keep you up on what's going on.
[0:50] uh to let people have their bubble talk
[0:53] to go through this. But really the
[0:55] foundation is will artificial
[0:57] intelligence be more of our life every
[0:59] single day and will the buildout be
[1:01] financed by people who can handle the
[1:03] financing of it. Are the governments
[1:05] supporting it? I think they go through
[1:07] this well. We got the recap.
[1:09] Hyperscalers are weak and again this is
[1:11] all part of my belief of the secular
[1:13] rotation away from the hyperscalers in
[1:16] the mag 7 and into the rest of the
[1:18] marketplace. I'll go through that. The
[1:20] pricing war is continuing. Um,
[1:23] commoditization of these inflation
[1:27] above 4%. Uh, I'll go through that. I
[1:30] did create a Jensen Yuang knowledge
[1:32] brain. I'll highlight it again today for
[1:34] the subscribers. You guys have it up on
[1:36] the website in terms of how to do it.
[1:38] Uh, I'm going to talk more about Signal
[1:40] Alpha Agency in terms of uh, the whole
[1:43] concept that I'm trying to bring with
[1:45] the videos, but also with the reports
[1:48] and everything. And then specifically on
[1:50] names, chemicals uh are breaking out and
[1:54] a spotlight name that I've highlighted
[1:55] before. I just want to go through some
[1:57] details specifically to Vera Rubin and
[1:59] Complexity. So here's the interview with
[2:02] uh Brad Gersonner and Gavin Baker on the
[2:04] BG2 pod. Definitely a listen. They cover
[2:08] SpaceX uh highlight that it's the fourth
[2:11] largest hyperscaler and it only took 30
[2:14] days. So for people that are negative on
[2:16] SpaceX,
[2:17] uh you can go list it in there. I
[2:19] covered it on Pomp this week as well.
[2:23] It's not a bullish argument on SpaceX,
[2:25] but it is a uh
[2:28] a logical side compared to all the bears
[2:31] that are out there uh on the name from a
[2:33] valuation perspective. Uh basically,
[2:36] they talk about the stock market after
[2:38] the runup and how you should think about
[2:39] it. Uh I talked about it as the end of
[2:41] the fireworks show. they go through a
[2:43] similar thing. They remind everyone
[2:46] something that I've talked about which
[2:48] is at the beginning of the year and
[2:49] really uh at the end of the of 2025
[2:53] everything was about a bubble based on
[2:54] not being able to get the revenues. Now
[2:56] as the revenues are coming in and it's
[2:58] very clear nobody's really backing off
[3:00] the bubble. They just moved to the next
[3:02] bubble scene. That is the sign of a
[3:04] bubble and bubble talk uh is when
[3:06] whatever your argument is the capex will
[3:09] never happen. They won't be able to get
[3:11] the money for it. uh the ar the revenues
[3:13] will never come through. Every single
[3:14] argument continues to go. I saw someone
[3:17] uh who is another bear on this who's
[3:19] written multiple pieces saying this is
[3:21] exactly like fracking and what happened
[3:24] and to a degree I agree except for the
[3:27] fact that that's why I don't want to
[3:29] belong the hyperscalers. So remember
[3:31] guys, you can be bearish on the capex
[3:35] and on the revenue delay,
[3:38] but that doesn't mean that you should be
[3:39] bearish on the stock market or a
[3:41] collapse. There are two totally
[3:43] different things that can happen. I am
[3:45] bearish on the hyperscalers relative to
[3:49] the receivers of the money and relative
[3:51] to health care companies which will
[3:53] benefit like Eli Liy in a whole bunch of
[3:56] different applications. The hyperscalers
[3:58] are going to finance this. They are in a
[3:59] race to commoditization and all of them
[4:03] including anthropic and open AAI may not
[4:05] get the money that they're supposed to
[4:07] get in the end. We'll see what happens.
[4:09] But I am not positive on those. So as
[4:12] much as I might be AI pilled, I am
[4:13] different than Brad Gersonner and Gavin
[4:16] Baker in not sitting there saying that I
[4:18] think that Anthropic and Open AI will
[4:21] definitely be winners in this whole
[4:23] thing. I'm not convinced about that. Um
[4:24] they go through all of those. They talk
[4:26] about the capex numbers, how big they're
[4:28] likely to be, how insatiable compute is.
[4:31] U they go through fable five. I think
[4:34] this is important. What I want to
[4:35] highlight here is basically this whole
[4:38] front of what it means. And rather than
[4:41] just go through the comments of how
[4:43] we're at this point that you could argue
[4:45] is RSI or or getting close to AGI.
[4:48] Imagine if Albert Einstein had just
[4:50] thought about fundamental physics 24
[4:51] hours a day. He doesn't have to eat. He
[4:53] doesn't have to sleep. He doesn't have
[4:54] to relax. He doesn't drink and never
[4:56] gets old and he thinks for one year. I
[5:01] mean, we might actually, you know, have
[5:03] solved a lot of these intractable
[5:05] problems. The reason I want to bring
[5:07] that up, I talk about this all the time.
[5:09] Remember, a year ago, people didn't even
[5:11] believe AI was good. So, again, every
[5:15] bubble theme, the same people say the
[5:17] exact same thing. They just move on to
[5:19] the next argument, and it's all based on
[5:21] the fact that number one, they're
[5:23] missing it. Number two, this can't
[5:24] happen because I've seen this before.
[5:26] They're using the industrial revolution
[5:27] BS to go through it. I'll say it again.
[5:30] I went to Silicon Valley, went to
[5:32] Singularity University in 2013 because I
[5:34] was in the same boat. I didn't think
[5:36] this was possible. Exponential
[5:38] innovation is the key. You can make a
[5:39] lot of money trading it. And if
[5:41] something does happen that we get a
[5:43] correction, we'll look for the signs.
[5:44] Right now, they're not there. They talk
[5:46] about seasonality, which I brought up in
[5:48] the uh uh in a bunch of stuff including
[5:51] an expost this week just about the usage
[5:53] going down, a reason why we're tired. I
[5:56] always think stocks, the markets, I
[5:58] imagine them as runners. You've had a
[6:00] lot of stocks that forget about climbing
[6:01] a mountain or a hill. They've gone
[6:02] straight up a cliff. They're tired. They
[6:04] need to rest. That's the consolidation
[6:06] argument that I would uh go through. So
[6:08] S&P for the week after a sharp down
[6:11] move, the biggest one since liberation
[6:14] uh week. Well, we had a minor bounce. So
[6:17] we're doing some bit of consolidating.
[6:19] Uh I still believe that we're probably
[6:22] going to have a lot of back and forth.
[6:23] Some of that's going to show up as I go
[6:25] through this and just say in the back of
[6:27] your mind, a lot of back and forth, a
[6:28] lot of positives, a lot of negatives.
[6:31] Investors are positioned for positives,
[6:33] so the negatives get reinforced to me.
[6:35] And that's where we kind of end up in
[6:37] this position where I think the names
[6:38] that people don't want to go higher are
[6:40] probably the ones that go higher for a
[6:42] bit of time. Sounds like a momentum
[6:44] unwind, but the reality is I don't think
[6:46] the thematic portfolio that I put
[6:47] together is going to correct too much.
[6:50] The Q's uh a little bit better week, but
[6:52] again make back about half of last week.
[6:55] Uh IWM
[6:57] new all-time highs. It's hard to have a
[6:59] bare market when small caps are at new
[7:02] all-time highs while we've got energy
[7:05] prices going higher. While we just build
[7:07] in Fed rate hikes and yet somehow or
[7:09] another, small caps make new all-time
[7:10] highs. Not bearish, guys. Not bearish.
[7:15] Here's probably the chart that is
[7:16] freaking people out the most. And I say
[7:18] that because having been in this seat,
[7:21] having had a lot of PMs report to me,
[7:24] when their P&L is shaking, it gets them
[7:27] scared. This is the TMT
[7:31] momentum volatility which is at all-time
[7:33] highs going back 25 years. It just
[7:36] continues to shake. So that shakes
[7:39] people out generally on the worst days
[7:41] and then they chase back in on the worst
[7:43] days and you get this back and forth
[7:44] because they're worried about missing
[7:46] something. Here's a big deal.
[7:48] Hyperscalers relative to the S&P. This
[7:50] is the last three years. Um I only just
[7:53] show this just because the last three,
[7:54] but this is relative to the S&P. We've
[7:57] had back-to-back 4% down weeks. We
[8:00] haven't seen that at any point. In fact,
[8:02] we've only had four before these two.
[8:05] The hyperscalers are weak and this is
[8:07] clearly a rotation and this is the way
[8:09] that we're playing the capital raises.
[8:11] They are using clearly the hyperscalers
[8:13] to buy SpaceX, to buy Anthropic, to buy
[8:16] this. That is where the capital's coming
[8:17] from, but also they're overweight these
[8:19] names. So, the Mag 7 fits into the same
[8:22] side. In fact, here's IWM relative to
[8:24] the Mag 7.
[8:26] This is a monthly return. So far, we're
[8:29] up 9.8% in IWM over the Mag 7. Uh this
[8:34] is back a decade. There's only two other
[8:37] times that this occurred. So again,
[8:40] you're getting a uh fairly large
[8:42] rotation. And here's the chart of it.
[8:43] IWM over the MAG 7 not only making
[8:46] one-year highs but look how strong the
[8:47] move has been the last consecutive days
[8:51] showing the rotation the S&P is down 2%
[8:53] monthto date and eight of the 11 sectors
[8:56] are now up for the month it's just that
[8:59] these are not the places that people are
[9:01] long industrials is but you've got all
[9:04] of the mag seven obviously dominating
[9:06] this but also semis uh seeing some
[9:09] pullback so I just want to make sure on
[9:12] the on the webinar I for the subscribers
[9:14] this week. This was basically the title
[9:16] of it, which is navigating the AI
[9:18] midcycle slowdown. Uh I believe we are
[9:21] in what is effectively a midcycle
[9:23] slowdown for AI. For those of you uh not
[9:26] familiar with kind of the macro term on
[9:27] this, when you come out of a recession,
[9:29] you get explosive growth relative to
[9:31] what it had been. It always surprises
[9:34] investors. Earnings revisions go higher
[9:36] and then all of a sudden at some point,
[9:38] whether it's the next quarter or the
[9:39] quarter after, you reach a point where
[9:40] the second derivative changes. And two
[9:43] things have occurred. Investors are now
[9:44] comfortable that the economy is
[9:47] accelerating. They're comfortable that
[9:48] earnings are good and they're now
[9:50] positioned for it. Analysts are
[9:51] positioned for it. And then it gets
[9:53] harder and more choppy. That's where we
[9:55] are. I do not think this is the
[9:57] beginning of a bare market. I do not
[9:59] think this is the unwind of a bubble. Um
[10:01] I do believe there are pockets of where
[10:03] the retail is overinvested and I believe
[10:05] those will end up being resolved through
[10:09] consolidation. every bubble we have seen
[10:12] over the last few years. I don't care
[10:14] what it was. Silver at uh at the
[10:16] beginning of the year, gold for most of
[10:17] last year, Palunteer, these things
[10:20] unwind through a correction and then
[10:23] through consolidation with inside a bull
[10:25] market on the broader market. That's
[10:27] what I believe will happen when the
[10:28] memory names actually start to see some
[10:30] unwinds, whether it happens in a day or
[10:32] whatever. I'm going to continue to say
[10:34] this um again for mutual funds, for
[10:37] pension funds, for anybody who has a
[10:39] benchmark.
[10:42] Read this paper. Um ask me for it. Reach
[10:45] out. Again, you need to be ready for the
[10:48] rotation that is happening has been
[10:50] happening which will continue to happen.
[10:53] My thematic portfolio of 100 names. So
[10:55] total market cap is 20 trillion.
[10:58] The market cap of the mag 7 is 22
[11:01] trillion. This is the rotation. You're
[11:04] going from seven names into effectively
[11:08] a 100 names.
[11:11] That is a dispersion situation for you
[11:13] options traders. Here is the thematic
[11:16] portfolio relative to the hyperscalers
[11:18] making new highs. I've said this is the
[11:20] trade you want to have on. You're not
[11:22] getting any kind of a correction in
[11:23] here. If you're short the hyperscalers,
[11:25] which are the spenders, if any of the
[11:27] bubble thing happens, the hyperscalers
[11:29] are going to suffer as well. and their
[11:31] multiples are extremely high and now
[11:33] they have debt. They have some dilution.
[11:37] There's going to be more. Here are the
[11:39] hyperscalers relative to the S&P chart.
[11:42] It's not a good-look chart. More
[11:43] importantly, we're now down since 2024.
[11:47] This unwind or this rotation has been
[11:50] happening. So, you're late to the party
[11:53] if you haven't done anything, but I
[11:54] think you need to focus on it. Here's
[11:56] the S&P relative to the hyperscalers. So
[11:58] the hyperscalers are moving down and I
[12:01] think this correlation break is going to
[12:02] continue as the rotation goes. Here is
[12:05] the token index. I highlighted this on
[12:06] the webinar and this is one of the
[12:09] reasons why I think it's very difficult
[12:10] at this point to be uh positive on the
[12:13] AI trade for the summertime at least for
[12:16] it to just go continue to go parabolic.
[12:18] I think it will be choppy. I think you
[12:20] need to rotate. I think you need to pick
[12:22] names. uh all of the Excel files that
[12:24] I've produced for you guys. I would
[12:26] highly uh recommend spending time on
[12:28] them uh just because I think you're
[12:30] going to be able to navigate this more.
[12:32] But this token thing is accelerating to
[12:34] the downside. It's a combination of more
[12:36] open- source usage, especially on the
[12:38] Chinese model side, but it's also the
[12:40] fact that the summertime you're going to
[12:41] see less usage just because of vacation
[12:44] and because of schools being closed. Um
[12:46] here it is. This is not a minor trend.
[12:49] This is a real defined trend. you're
[12:51] making. These are the daily drops
[12:53] percentage- wise. So, our biggest drop
[12:55] was actually on Friday.
[12:58] Here's the overlay with the
[12:59] hyperscalers. They're being caught up in
[13:00] the token side. So, there's clearly a
[13:02] story here, guys. Don't ignore it.
[13:04] There's absolutely a story for the
[13:06] options traders. And again, here's the
[13:08] VIX EQ showing the volatility of the ini
[13:10] individual names. If you're rotating
[13:13] from companies that are three to five
[13:16] billion in market cap and you're
[13:18] rotating into a hundred names where the
[13:20] average market cap is going to be like
[13:22] 150 uh billion, you're going to have
[13:24] more volatility in these names. It's
[13:26] just a sausage squeegee thing. And
[13:27] here's the VIX down here. Now, if we're
[13:30] actually going to get a bubble type
[13:31] unwind, if something big is going to
[13:33] happen, I put the hyperscalers inversed
[13:35] here. It's going to happen in the white
[13:37] line. This is the CDX for IG. Right now,
[13:40] we're not seeing anything on the credit
[13:42] side. Always remember that if we're
[13:44] really having a bubble unwind, the
[13:46] credit place will take part of it. I'll
[13:49] go through uh private credit in some
[13:50] other place as well. Remember this, Sam
[13:52] Alman's stunning admission about the
[13:55] pressure that is there from their own
[13:57] customers on pricing. OpenAI considers
[14:01] drastic price cuts, anticipating war for
[14:04] users. Price wars are not a good thing.
[14:06] Um, and they're not only not a good
[14:08] thing for anthropic and for
[14:11] uh open AI,
[14:13] the prospect of a price war is deeply
[14:15] uncomfortable for hyperscaling tech
[14:16] giants such as Amazon and Microsoft
[14:18] who've been spending wildly on AI
[14:20] infrastructure so they can sell
[14:21] computing capacity to the big AI firms.
[14:25] The cost of components going into these
[14:27] keeps rising. So any threat to the
[14:29] pricing side or the profits of these
[14:31] companies is troubling. So again, when
[14:34] you start getting into this and you're
[14:36] like, "A price war would be brutal." I
[14:38] would not ignore these because this will
[14:40] be brought out again. This is this
[14:42] circular relationship or mapped as
[14:44] Morgan Stanley said, as the most
[14:46] dangerous money loop in history. Again,
[14:48] if there's anything going on with inside
[14:52] this money loop, that is a negative. Oh,
[14:54] free cash flow burn. And again, I'm not
[14:56] showing this to say I'm negative. I'm
[14:58] showing this to show you what the
[15:00] negative arguments will be and why the
[15:03] market will have a harder time. These
[15:04] stories as this is accelerating.
[15:08] We're going to start getting into more
[15:09] numbers when we get into the second
[15:11] quarter and the second quarter is not
[15:13] going to be as big a surprise as the
[15:14] first quarter uh because we've already
[15:17] done a lot of the work and because
[15:18] bottlenecks are are definitely going.
[15:21] Why Alman also admitted AI costs have
[15:23] become a huge problem. This becomes a
[15:25] big story. It's spreading. This is in an
[15:27] Axios
[15:28] or he acknowledged the issue had arrived
[15:30] all of a sudden and that early in 2026
[15:33] nobody cared about cost. Everyone was
[15:35] happy with their spending, but now
[15:37] they're complaining and they're getting
[15:39] complaints on the cost. You're seeing
[15:41] more and more of these and you're seeing
[15:43] more and more cancellations. There was a
[15:45] story on Meta late uh last night. It is
[15:48] Saturday morning now. You're getting
[15:51] more and more of these. I'm seeing them
[15:52] through X every day. Citadel put out
[15:54] something. Uh this was mainly on the
[15:56] token index and tokconomics.
[15:59] Uh again,
[16:01] what the AI bulls won't say out loud. Uh
[16:04] I'm a bull in AI. I'm saying it out
[16:05] loud. So did Brad Gersonner. So did
[16:07] Gavin Baker. So as you guys are getting
[16:09] worried that no one's talking about the
[16:11] token side. Uh commoditization to me is
[16:14] going to happen again. That's why I want
[16:16] to not focus on the hyperscalers. Uh
[16:19] didn't didn't put this in right, but
[16:20] this was in the Wall Street Journal this
[16:22] morning. Again, the pressures on OpenAI
[16:24] and Enthropic from a pricing war
[16:26] perspective.
[16:29] Uh I don't know who hasn't figured out
[16:31] yet, but Enthropic's revenue is not
[16:32] going to scale anywhere close to what
[16:34] they've been projecting. Now, I happen
[16:36] to agree with this. Um I think Anthropic
[16:39] is going to grow their revenue, but I
[16:41] think taking the first five months of
[16:42] the year, which was a scramble for
[16:45] entities that were switching from Chat
[16:47] GPT Enterprise to Anthropic, just raced
[16:50] and they got a bunch. I think there's a
[16:52] lot of other reasons that are behind the
[16:54] scenes in the circular relationship as
[16:55] to what went on. But when you're seeing
[16:58] Microsoft talk about cancelling things,
[17:01] when you're talking about Meta, when you
[17:03] got Uber, you've got the most
[17:04] sophisticated places on the planet from
[17:07] a technology basis that are realizing
[17:09] that the cost is too high.
[17:11] I at least expect the acceleration in
[17:14] the AR to slow down. Maybe not. Maybe
[17:16] they'll make it up by more and more
[17:18] adopters replacing the ones that are
[17:20] cutting back. But the reality is any
[17:23] slowdown in Enthropics parabolic move,
[17:25] anything a pause, it's going to be a big
[17:27] negative. So I would just be very very
[17:29] wary of that risk in here. I think this
[17:31] is worth reading from Alec Canitz.
[17:33] Again, the public outcry in the country
[17:35] is getting worse. Oracle
[17:39] was kind of a warning sign. um stock
[17:41] could rally dramatically
[17:43] and they're spending more money and I
[17:46] think as you go through this and you
[17:48] start to think about it the competition
[17:49] even from Colossus and some of these
[17:51] other places from a valuation basis I
[17:54] don't know I'm just getting more and
[17:56] more of these signs that the bottlenecks
[17:58] are real the push back is real and that
[18:00] we might see a slight kind of pullback
[18:03] on these things moving more for a period
[18:06] of time to cheaper models to less
[18:08] profitable models and anything on that
[18:10] front would scare everyone especially
[18:12] while the costs are going high. This was
[18:14] a Cruso thing uh in terms of a pause
[18:17] this would have been amongst the largest
[18:19] AI infrastructure projects on earth.
[18:22] China
[18:24] not sure everyone saw this this week but
[18:26] basically this is their version of what
[18:29] the US is doing and they've decided that
[18:31] AGI is close. So they are accelerating
[18:35] and prepping a $300 billion plan to fund
[18:37] the AI buildout. This is a a step change
[18:40] and I think they smell blood. I think
[18:42] they also realize how quickly the models
[18:44] are getting to where they need to get
[18:46] there. But as I'll go through later,
[18:48] there's other things under the surface
[18:49] on the geopolitical side which suggest
[18:52] to me the trade war coming out of the
[18:54] meeting is still both relevant and still
[18:57] a part of this. Uh it's not rare earth
[18:59] anymore, but there's other places. The
[19:01] token usage uh which had been highly
[19:04] China then came down. I think this is a
[19:07] sign again that matches up with the
[19:09] token usage or the token index index
[19:12] going lower. You can see the pricing
[19:15] differential between the Chinese models,
[19:16] Miniax, DeepS, 10 cent,
[19:20] uh, Minia, and then
[19:25] these are the open- source ones. These
[19:27] are not even the cost ones of the other.
[19:29] I'll show those there. Now, I mean, you
[19:30] can just see the cost differential
[19:32] between the cheaper models. And I will
[19:34] highlight that this one here, Neatron,
[19:38] we're starting to get open source models
[19:40] which are pretty good and very cheap.
[19:44] So, we're just seeing them because aside
[19:46] from that one, you've got to go to older
[19:48] models like 5 4.5, but when you get into
[19:51] deepsek and some of these others, you're
[19:53] getting cheaper and cheaper costs.
[19:56] Uh, this is getting to be more of a
[19:58] worry for me for people not paying
[20:00] attention to it. I think this would be a
[20:02] big negative if the government is taking
[20:03] stakes in these companies. 34% chance.
[20:06] If you go here, you can go see all of
[20:08] them and what the percentage is, but
[20:10] we're getting more and more to the
[20:11] government getting involved. I'll spend
[20:12] more time on that there. Um, I'm just
[20:15] highlighting this is really more to show
[20:17] you the bubble talk that will be coming
[20:19] and that as people I mean Peter Barrison
[20:23] is bearish, guys. Uh, if you follow him,
[20:25] if you go through it, uh, this has been
[20:27] a perpetual thing for the last couple
[20:29] years. Uh, but he put this out and again
[20:31] it means nothing to me on this whole
[20:33] thing, but I just want to show you that
[20:34] this stuff will come out and if you're
[20:36] following X and you only look at this
[20:38] and you don't do some research like look
[20:40] at someone who's more on the ai side
[20:43] going through what this is then just go
[20:46] in and say is Peterly normally bullish
[20:48] or bearish and I highly recommend before
[20:50] you start forwarding these to find out
[20:52] the person that you're dealing with if
[20:54] this is a bubble chaser. If it's a
[20:55] bubble chaser, you can't take what
[20:57] they're saying as anything more than a
[20:59] general post of their bias. He is
[21:03] generally bearish or at least highly
[21:05] skeptical on the near-term hype.
[21:06] Frequent bubble warnings.
[21:09] How far back did he begin calling an AI
[21:11] bubble? And it goes through. It was
[21:13] early 2025 that he started calling it or
[21:16] mid 2025. Sorry. I got to be fair. And
[21:18] before calling an AI bubble, was he
[21:20] calling for a recession? This is the
[21:22] reason why he's calling for an AI bubble
[21:23] because he started calling for a
[21:25] recession in mid 2024.
[21:28] He was bullish relative to consensus
[21:31] there. The reason I bring this up is
[21:33] these people will never change. And I
[21:35] say these people because if you have a
[21:37] bias and you're not trading the market,
[21:39] if you're not finding something to go
[21:41] through, if you're not at least
[21:43] highlighting the es and flows right now,
[21:45] everything I'm doing is on a bull market
[21:49] to a consolidation. I still believe the
[21:52] secular trend is in place. That is from
[21:54] a power user perspective, not from a a
[21:57] person just writing stuff. But I think
[22:00] you have to realize that any bull market
[22:02] is going to have es and flows. And right
[22:04] now I think the firework show is over
[22:06] and the agentic AI moves from discovery
[22:08] to digestion. Okay. So let's go through
[22:11] this in a different way so you guys can
[22:13] see this because I wanted to make sure
[22:14] this was clear. Oh, you guys get to see
[22:16] me in a bigger way. Um,
[22:18] so these are all of the things that as
[22:21] you go through this, let me move this
[22:24] over here so you guys can see all of it.
[22:26] Um, just read this on your own. But if
[22:29] you put all of this together, and I
[22:30] wanted to make sure, model pricing falls
[22:33] faster than infrastructure costs are
[22:35] rising. The next margin squeeze may move
[22:37] toward hyperscalers, cloud providers,
[22:39] and lease capacity players. The key
[22:41] tension in AI is now price compression
[22:43] at the model layer versus inflation at
[22:45] the physical layer.
[22:46] And this is what this is. I think you
[22:48] have to be honest about where we are at
[22:51] least at a minimum to just see how this
[22:54] plays out. Riskreward is about
[22:56] identifying the place where investors
[22:58] have gone in and also analysts. So you
[23:00] could look at this and say the AI
[23:02] burnings earnings boom is generational.
[23:04] This is the long-term average earnings
[23:07] growth estimate. Okay.
[23:10] I just think now with this estimate
[23:13] we're at there's only downside from here
[23:15] in terms of if we're missing. So if you
[23:17] combine the likelihood that the miss
[23:19] involves something that people could
[23:20] make an argument like Peter Barerisen
[23:22] that it's bearish. I think you just have
[23:24] to pay attention to it. I think you just
[23:26] have to be ready. Now on the positive
[23:28] side as Warren P Warren Pies put out
[23:30] based on those estimates we're talking
[23:31] about margins up at high levels. Um
[23:34] margins have been the story. I think
[23:36] they remain the story but this is
[23:37] another story too. Now, I don't know if
[23:40] when uh the long view put this out, they
[23:42] were trying to emphasize that this is
[23:44] bearish or bullish, but I'll just tell
[23:46] you
[23:47] spreads being this tight is not bearish.
[23:50] Now, you'll have to look to see if they
[23:52] start to unwind. But here's another
[23:54] thing that just says, think of all the
[23:56] bad news that's happened since this day
[23:58] in private credit. And yet, the BDC's
[24:01] the index just is consolidating. Now,
[24:04] maybe we'll get another run lower, but
[24:06] we've had more gates, more everything,
[24:08] and it hasn't made new lows. And part of
[24:11] the reason is because credit hasn't
[24:13] budged. So, this is the junk index
[24:15] overlaid with the BDC. So, initially
[24:18] when this breaks down, you look to see
[24:21] if the alligator jaws are going to
[24:22] connect. So, when this one happened
[24:24] during this big flush, which was during
[24:26] the software thing, which to me was a
[24:28] risk, and I highlighted this is a risk.
[24:30] We now have this following. We're just
[24:32] sitting here consolidating where this is
[24:34] at all-time highs. And I think this is
[24:36] important because it fits in the paper
[24:37] that I wrote about the rewiring of the
[24:40] uh the economy. If you haven't got a
[24:42] chance to read it, I specifically go
[24:44] through why this cannot be the same as
[24:46] the bubbles of the past. So, it came out
[24:48] this week. It's on the rewiring. Go read
[24:51] it. Now, on the positive side from the
[24:53] long view, CPI is up 4.2 year. While it
[24:56] may be sticky, which I agree completely
[24:58] with this, it likely just peaked.
[25:00] Whether or not it peaked, I'm not really
[25:02] sure yet. But he adds the disclaimer,
[25:04] which I agree if gas prices did too. And
[25:06] I happen to agree with that because you
[25:09] can't argue that gas at the pump has
[25:10] gone down from 455 down to 408 as of
[25:13] this morning. Here is the CPI, core CPI,
[25:17] and this is it with sticky 3month, which
[25:21] is another way to look at at at core
[25:23] CPI. They're both down at this level.
[25:25] So, do I think it's going to stay in
[25:27] this area? Yes. I don't think we're
[25:29] going to fall off, but if I had to
[25:30] guess, if you can't go higher with the
[25:32] straight of horm being shut
[25:35] for all the oil doomers, what are you
[25:37] going to do? Here's right now where the
[25:39] Cleveland Fed expectations are for the
[25:41] CPI print in June. Zero or one.
[25:47] Uh, you think that'll be bullish?
[25:51] financials. I highlighted that we have
[25:53] never seen a time where the S&P didn't
[25:55] get under the 200 day moving average
[25:58] when the financials did. Well, so far
[26:01] we've been able to accomplish it. We did
[26:03] have a correction in the S&P down to it,
[26:06] but financials are now back above.
[26:09] Financials being higher is one side.
[26:11] Here are the banks, the KBE ETF. That is
[26:15] not a bearish chart, guys. So, there's
[26:17] been a rotation. IWM, as I said,
[26:19] all-time highs, not a bearish chart.
[26:23] Violent Factor Unwind is supposed to
[26:24] thin out a market. The generals keep
[26:26] advancing. This is great work by Jeff
[26:28] Degraphth. Uh, but he says as this purge
[26:32] in beta and MO is happening. And I
[26:34] showed last week historic drop in beta,
[26:38] largest on record for my stuff, and I
[26:40] think for him, it is the largest on
[26:41] record going back 50 years from what I
[26:43] remember him saying. At the same time,
[26:45] the equal weight breath expanded back to
[26:48] 63% of the names above their 20-day
[26:50] moving average. That's just a bullish
[26:52] sign. It just means rotation, guys. Um,
[26:55] I thought this was interesting just to
[26:56] show XAI reportedly spent 40 billion to
[26:59] build their data center. So, Colossus
[27:02] and Colossus 2 reportedly he spent 40
[27:04] billion. Based on public disclosure of
[27:07] what Anthropic and Google deal are
[27:08] paying, he will get paid 26 billion per
[27:11] year to license the compute from these
[27:12] data centers. That is a payback period
[27:14] of 18 months. So again, when you're
[27:16] looking at revenues versus the data
[27:18] center build, that means
[27:21] it's not a bubble, at least from the
[27:23] perspective of what these guys are able
[27:25] to charge. Uh Brian Armstrong, who I
[27:27] listened to on a moonshot interview,
[27:28] I'll go through that. Very smart guy. Um
[27:31] he posted this again on the we're going
[27:34] to go we're going to start dividing up
[27:36] the intelligence. My guess is demand for
[27:38] intelligence is near infinite.
[27:39] completely agree. But 80% of the
[27:40] workloads will be running on 99% cheaper
[27:43] models within 12 to 18 months. Also
[27:45] completely agree. Um I'm waiting for the
[27:47] day that I can buy a $4,000 laptop to
[27:49] replace a lot of the money that I'm
[27:51] spending on some of these things per
[27:52] year with a cheaper model. Uh this is
[27:55] really against my openclaw stuff which
[27:58] is costing money and when you add in the
[27:59] Mac Studios and everything once we get a
[28:01] good enough open source model that it
[28:02] can fit on these machines which is
[28:04] coming soon. Mark Andre agreed with his
[28:06] take. I think this is something to pay
[28:08] attention to particularly when we go
[28:09] into the edge guys.
[28:12] Now on the negative side those were
[28:14] basically the good side of PP of CPI and
[28:16] everything. So PPI biggest uh jump on
[28:19] record. We have to pay attention this
[28:20] just because this includes not only the
[28:22] petrochemicals and all the things going
[28:24] on but it also includes the
[28:27] semiconductor side. Um early estimates
[28:29] of the May PCE number again you're
[28:32] talking about a point4. So as much as
[28:34] core CPI is good, you've got PCE which
[28:37] is still tracking higher and that's the
[28:40] Fed proverb model that just keeps the
[28:42] Fed stuck.
[28:45] Just the best way I could say it is.
[28:46] That's why sticky inflation is just
[28:48] going to keep everything on hold while
[28:50] this thing has positives and negatives.
[28:52] Uh the energy situation, the math is
[28:55] getting more scary. I think that's
[28:57] probably why Trump is trying to continue
[29:00] to get the straight open, which has not
[29:02] happened yet. We'll see what happens. Uh
[29:05] he threatened this week to seize car.
[29:07] That got everyone freaked out. You had
[29:09] the will traffic at the straight return
[29:11] to normal. We had the October numbers
[29:14] back down significantly below 50. We had
[29:17] the September ones below below 30 and
[29:20] then all of a sudden they shot back up.
[29:22] He's done a masterful job of keeping uh
[29:24] speculators on their heels and not
[29:26] allowing people to drive up the cost of
[29:28] futures higher uh for fear of our risk.
[29:32] Um rate hikes are back on the table
[29:34] again. We don't know what's going to go
[29:36] on, but we just know that new Fed chair
[29:38] is going and it creates a lot of
[29:39] uncertainty. We'll see if he's hawkish.
[29:41] I'm starting to hear more and more
[29:43] people say that they're going to lean
[29:44] hawkish at the next meeting. Uh we'll
[29:46] see where that is. But again, if you
[29:48] have a CPI number that comes in on the
[29:49] lower side, we'll also have a payroll
[29:51] number by then. We'll see what goes on.
[29:53] Uh AI servers squeeze high-end MLCC
[29:58] supply. You're still getting bottlenecks
[30:00] on important parts of the AI buildout.
[30:05] Uh this is the one that I want people to
[30:07] focus on. This is the rare earth side.
[30:09] This is indium phosphide. Remember that
[30:12] I mentioned that coherent CEO was
[30:14] brought on the trip. We're getting more
[30:15] and more stories and this is going that
[30:18] indium phosphate phosphide is one of the
[30:20] several supply chain bottlenecks
[30:22] collectively constraining AI data center
[30:25] construction. It is a necessity. It's
[30:27] another component that China dominates
[30:31] and it's an issue. Uh Dario Modi put out
[30:35] a couple pieces this week. One of them
[30:37] was on the policy side of AI
[30:42] and on there they talked about Fable.
[30:45] Remember Mythos? I used it a lot
[30:47] yesterday or over the last two days and
[30:49] then of course overnight statement on
[30:52] the US government directive to suspend
[30:54] access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Amazon
[30:57] apparently told him a place that they
[30:58] were able to break in through
[30:59] vulnerabilities and so the government
[31:03] immediately jumped at the opportunity to
[31:05] say it was dangerous. Remember 34%
[31:08] chance to stay. I'm only bringing this
[31:09] up because I think AI again remains that
[31:12] as these numbers continue to get to this
[31:14] level and it becomes something critical
[31:16] for biology. Again, look at these
[31:19] numbers in terms of biology versus
[31:22] what's going we just continue to make
[31:24] higher and higher levels on this front.
[31:26] Um, and again I'm bringing this up
[31:28] because I think it's a negative for the
[31:30] hyperscalers and for the model makers. I
[31:34] think eventually the government is going
[31:35] to view it as way too important. So, I
[31:38] mentioned building a Jensen Yuan
[31:39] knowledge brain on the webinar
[31:41] subscriber list. If you didn't get to
[31:43] see it, this is on the website. Now, a
[31:45] step-by-step guide to how you can build
[31:47] your own Jensen Yuang knowledgebrain. I
[31:49] showed in the webinar. If you haven't
[31:50] seen the re re uh play, it is on the
[31:53] site. You can go see how it goes. This
[31:55] is important as you guys go through this
[31:58] because I used it a lot this year um in
[32:02] a different way, but I showed people how
[32:04] to build it using co-work. Uh it took me
[32:06] 30 minutes to do it that way. So I put
[32:08] it together in a document where you can
[32:09] upload it and go do it yourself. I think
[32:11] if you're able or as you're able to do
[32:13] it, it will also make you a better uh AI
[32:17] person. I would have your kids do it as
[32:20] well. Everyone who knows how to do this
[32:22] and I go through the instructions, it
[32:24] will put you ahead of the AI game. I'm
[32:27] going to say from 99% of the people on
[32:29] the planet just by being able to do what
[32:32] takes 30 minutes and that's without any
[32:34] training. just upload it immediately
[32:36] into an LLM and ask them how to do it.
[32:38] And it might take you longer than 30
[32:39] minutes, but when you're done, you'll be
[32:41] proud of yourself that you were able to
[32:42] do it and run a Python script and all
[32:44] that stuff. It's all there for you. Um,
[32:46] this is the Moonshots episode. Again,
[32:48] remember, every time I show you a
[32:50] podcast on here that is great, like the
[32:52] Gersonner and and uh Gavin Baker one.
[32:56] There's a podcast recap that goes on the
[32:58] website. There's an email that goes out
[33:00] Sunday morning at 9:00 to the
[33:01] subscribers. Just remember this way you
[33:03] don't have to go listen to it if you
[33:04] don't want. You can just upload the link
[33:06] and do the transcript. I give you the
[33:08] timestamps if you want to watch there.
[33:10] But Brian Armstrong, a lot of good stuff
[33:12] on here in particular for the Bitcoin
[33:14] anti- bitcoin crowd. He goes through the
[33:16] quantum risk to Bitcoin in the most
[33:18] coherent way. Gives some websites like
[33:20] BIP 360 you can go to and read yourself.
[33:22] He also talks about the importance of
[33:23] the AI agents in crypto rails. Again,
[33:25] this is a major theme for me uh over the
[33:28] course of the next year. It's in the
[33:30] application layer. I believe that crypto
[33:32] will be a major story. And in September,
[33:35] for everyone who is cryptofocused or on
[33:37] the hedge fund side and the mutual fund
[33:39] side who's looking for digital assets in
[33:41] terms of the story, I am converting what
[33:43] I do in the YouTube into a cryptoforward
[33:45] one. I'm creating the data now uh in
[33:49] partnership with a variety of different
[33:50] people to be able to give you a YouTube
[33:52] that shows you what's happening at a
[33:53] sector level or a thematic level and
[33:55] then give you a thematic portfolio of
[33:57] both tokens and public equities
[33:59] preparing for the tokenized world. Um
[34:02] this was another podcast uh that I think
[34:05] you should listen to. I believe we're
[34:07] entering this stage as the AI midcycle
[34:10] slowdown takes over. That means it's not
[34:12] as easy to make money on stocks in the
[34:14] earning side. you will be able to
[34:16] produce returns, but the sharp ratio
[34:18] goes down. And I believe you're going to
[34:19] have more and more on chemicals, more
[34:21] and more on silver, more and more on
[34:23] copper, more and more on the commodity
[34:25] layer. That is where I want to focus in.
[34:27] That's where I've rotated money at the
[34:29] same time as the other scarcity trade
[34:31] that is a software bull, which is
[34:33] crypto. So all of those themes to me fit
[34:37] in with Dan Drifus who spoke at the
[34:40] all-in
[34:41] and if you go through he highlights
[34:44] China's control over critical minerals.
[34:46] This is the indium phosphide again as a
[34:49] major issue forcing the US government
[34:51] they have to support mining. It's very
[34:53] important. So look for the companies to
[34:56] have checks to have everything. And he
[34:58] makes a claim that we might need as much
[35:00] copper in the next 18 years as humanity
[35:02] mined over the last 10,000. And you have
[35:04] to start building in the reality of the
[35:06] orbital data centers. Uh I I'm telling
[35:10] you, you got to spend time on the
[35:12] orbital data centers. And one of the
[35:13] reasons is the price of silver has just
[35:15] collapsed. Here's why the Space X IPO
[35:18] could be the start of a silver boom. He
[35:21] highlighted this uh about how much
[35:23] silver there is and how much more silver
[35:25] would be ne necessary for data centers
[35:27] in space rather rather than terrestrial.
[35:31] Um, and then you have to remember, and
[35:33] this is something that I've been talking
[35:35] to uh institutional accounts about, a
[35:39] Chinese battery company on April 14th,
[35:41] backed by one of the world's largest
[35:42] automakers, rolled out the first sample
[35:45] all solid state battery cells off a
[35:47] production line in Guangjo. The company
[35:49] is targeting this. Go look up how much
[35:53] silver is needed for solid state. Silver
[35:56] market may be undervaluing demand. and
[35:58] then go look at what China's imports
[36:00] were for the most recent period in
[36:02] silver.
[36:04] More on the indium phosphate. Go read
[36:06] about it. It's an AI bottleneck. Signal
[36:09] Alpha Agency. Uh I've had many many
[36:12] subscribers and new people really more
[36:14] around the world and I did a
[36:16] presentation for Korean brokers and for
[36:18] Korean investors that wanted to know
[36:20] from the subscriber basis why it's
[36:22] important. And I just want to make sure
[36:24] that you guys hear this. everything that
[36:26] I'm doing including the YouTube and then
[36:27] the reports and then all of the things
[36:29] to keep you up. This is the signal
[36:31] rather than listening or watching a
[36:33] bubble post like Peter Barrison's where
[36:35] he just sends something out there where
[36:37] he's hunting and going for negatives.
[36:39] I've given you a bunch of negatives and
[36:40] a bunch of positives on this so that you
[36:43] always feel like you're on top of the
[36:45] most important trends that are
[36:46] happening. It is impossible to keep up
[36:48] on everything that I'm showing you guys.
[36:50] There's 125 slides a week. I know it
[36:53] goes fast as I go through this, but
[36:55] think about it. You're getting a lot of
[36:56] signal in here. Why it matters now in
[36:58] the AI economy and what regime are we in
[37:00] right now? I think we're in the AI
[37:01] midcycle slowdown. Now, from an alpha
[37:02] basis, this is giving you the names and
[37:05] this is talking about the five layer
[37:06] cake and breaking it down and making
[37:07] sure that you can make money as a trader
[37:09] and as investor. That's what the tools
[37:10] are for in terms of giving you the the
[37:13] Excel sheets. And then the final part is
[37:15] the agency. And this is where I'm trying
[37:16] to help you make knowledge brains. Go
[37:19] watch the YouTube video on how to start
[37:20] with AI. The whole goal by giving you
[37:22] the prompts and all the things that are
[37:24] on the site is to make sure that you are
[37:26] able to do it yourself, but more
[37:28] importantly for your kids, for your
[37:30] employees and your workers. That is the
[37:32] whole purpose of this. And so I wanted
[37:33] to make sure that you guys see that as I
[37:34] went through just what this week was.
[37:37] The economy is being rewired around
[37:39] compute and energy and that's a very
[37:41] different world. This goes through how
[37:42] the business cycles no longer exist in
[37:44] the from the industrial perspective. You
[37:46] have to understand where the bare
[37:49] markets will be quote unquote. the
[37:50] pullbacks will be. What is different
[37:52] than fears over recessions? Because
[37:54] we're not going to have fears over
[37:55] recessions in an AI. We're growing too
[37:57] fast. Chemical breakout. Here's the
[38:00] chemical market. So, I have the chemote
[38:02] and I want to show two things. One is
[38:04] the consolidation basically for five
[38:07] years now. We just broke out. We've now
[38:09] consolidated above. I think chemicals
[38:11] are the oil of the next 10 years. We are
[38:15] not transporting consumer garbage around
[38:18] the planet. We are now needing massive
[38:22] amounts of chemicals and for those
[38:24] chemicals you need to know how that goes
[38:25] in. I think the chemical part is where
[38:27] you should be focused a lot right now as
[38:29] well as the power side. Remember I wrote
[38:31] this paper so this is on there guys if
[38:34] you want to go redo it or maybe you
[38:35] didn't read about it because semis were
[38:37] the hot thing. You have to get good at
[38:39] moving from the different themes with
[38:41] inside to what I produced. I definitely
[38:43] believe this is a theme you want to
[38:45] focus on in terms of chemicals and this
[38:47] is the reason why in the old industrial
[38:49] economy growth was transport heavy and
[38:51] combustiondriven oil intensity fell from
[38:54] 1973 to 29 2019 we've seen that so the
[38:57] AI industrial economy putting
[38:59] intelligence into everything the 91
[39:01] trillion buildout it is now compute
[39:05] heavy it is electricheavy and it is
[39:08] infrastructured driven data centers
[39:10] could are the massive build so we're
[39:12] rebuilding building the grid. Everything
[39:14] in that shifts from barrels burned to
[39:16] molecules engineered. All of these
[39:19] places, semiconductors, advanced
[39:21] packaging, data centers, grid and power,
[39:23] robotics, those major themes, they're
[39:24] all part of chemicals. They're all part
[39:27] of different thing. You can go through
[39:28] all of these if you want. This is a
[39:30] massive shift and you need to be ready
[39:33] for it. And trust me, this is a late
[39:35] cycle part and once it gets going, I
[39:38] don't think it'll start stop and I think
[39:40] you're going to have issues. Now, one of
[39:42] those names is Entrogress, which I
[39:46] highlighted back in here. I wrote a
[39:47] paper on it, and it did its pullback.
[39:50] It's still near all-time highs without
[39:53] broken out, without breaking out. But on
[39:55] Friday, or and last week, it had a
[39:58] massive rip, and I think something is
[40:00] changing on it. I think people are
[40:02] starting to get on board. Again,
[40:03] spotlight piece I did on it, which was
[40:05] out about a month and a half ago. You
[40:07] can go read that. But then also this
[40:09] week you're going to be able to read
[40:11] something else which I'll highlight.
[40:12] This is why I'm saying it's now starting
[40:14] to become clear. So remember Vera Rubin
[40:17] and the roll out is becoming a focus for
[40:19] people. So everyone focused on memory.
[40:22] Everyone focused on power semis.
[40:24] Everyone focused on all the
[40:25] semiconductors but at some point you
[40:28] stop missing well for all those semis
[40:31] we're going to need. And you start going
[40:32] through the shortages in the places. And
[40:34] so now what's starting to show up is hey
[40:36] this is getting more complex and we need
[40:38] a lot more NAND these are the ones
[40:41] reportedly set to supply the materials
[40:44] to SKH. So when you're looking for the
[40:46] suppliers and the derivatives this is
[40:48] where you want to go to show how
[40:49] important NAND has been as people start
[40:52] to go up to speed on it and Integra's
[40:54] calls. How often did they say the word
[40:56] NAND on their call? 39 times in the last
[40:58] two quarters.
[41:01] uh the best NAND quotes. You guys can
[41:03] read them on your own. They frame NAND
[41:05] as a 2026 transition tailwind.
[41:09] This is the paper that I'm writing and
[41:12] again
[41:14] not writing. It will go out probably
[41:16] Sunday in the afternoon. Ver Rubin
[41:18] confirms the missing chemical layer of
[41:20] the AI complexity. It's an update on it
[41:22] and this is getting through why the
[41:25] trigger point now is Ver Rubin which is
[41:28] increasing the complexity that's going
[41:31] on for
[41:33] the next phase of the AI infrastructure.
[41:36] You're looking for places that are
[41:38] cheap. This is a perfect way to look at
[41:40] this is enigress relative to my thematic
[41:42] portfolio. Uh over the course of last
[41:45] years it had been a lagard as of June
[41:47] and then last week we got the bump. I
[41:49] believe as we break out on this, people
[41:51] will start to shift their focus to the
[41:52] bonding and all the component parts as
[41:54] they go. Why do I feel comfortable about
[41:56] that? Well, let's start with the
[41:57] technical sheet for this week. When you
[41:59] go through the top 12 names and you
[42:01] realize that five of the 12 of the
[42:03] hundred with the scores of 95 to 100 are
[42:07] chemical names. Entrogress is one of
[42:09] them.
[42:11] Um, if you go through and start reading
[42:13] about
[42:15] what we have in frontend WFE for wafers,
[42:19] go through and read, upload that
[42:22] particular one into uh, an LLM and ask
[42:25] what the benefits are for Integris. When
[42:27] you go through where we are technically
[42:29] overall right now for the thematic
[42:31] portfolio, chemicals are the third best
[42:34] on an aggregate basis. I just think at
[42:36] this point when you're looking for it,
[42:37] you're looking for names. Now,
[42:39] percentage above the 50-day, 82.
[42:42] Percentage above the 200 day, 88. I just
[42:46] think this name has lagged behind. We
[42:48] have no breakdowns. We have nine
[42:49] breakouts. So, it has held in there
[42:52] extremely well, and I think that's a
[42:54] place that you want to focus on. In
[42:56] terms of the exhaustion scores, right
[42:58] now, the whole thematic portfolio has
[43:00] reset. So, we don't have anything too
[43:02] exhausted. So, from a trading
[43:03] perspective, if you're looking for entry
[43:05] points on names, you can go through.
[43:07] Now, we've also seen breath breakdown.
[43:10] So, let's go through uh a way that you
[43:12] guys can just upload, if you haven't
[43:14] done this yet, upload every one of those
[43:16] sheets, the fundamental peg ratio sheet,
[43:18] the exhaustion sheet, and the technical
[43:21] sheet into one folder on your computer.
[43:23] Go to Claude Co-work, click on add
[43:26] folder, and go have it connect to that
[43:28] folder. And then just go ask it a
[43:29] question of okay, go through the
[43:31] technical sheet first and show me what
[43:33] the breath has been. And so in this
[43:35] case, I wanted to look at what was how
[43:37] many what percent were above the 20-day,
[43:39] above the 50-day, above the 200 day, and
[43:41] then what percentage of these were
[43:43] rising. And so again, as you go through
[43:45] this overall, now I could have done this
[43:46] for any one of the themes. Also, we've
[43:49] seen a breath breakdown. All of a
[43:50] sudden, we bump back up on the 20-day.
[43:52] The 50-day, we're still making lower.
[43:54] There's more names below the 50-day
[43:56] every week. This is why I think it
[43:58] confirms the consolidation that's
[43:59] happening. But from a bull market
[44:01] perspective, 84% are above the 200 day
[44:04] and 87% have a rising 200 day. This is a
[44:08] pullback with inside a bull market in
[44:10] any way, shape, or form. Now, next time
[44:13] go in, you're an expert and a hedge fund
[44:14] analyst. I want to use these three
[44:15] folders for your information. I believe
[44:17] we are in a place where this basket of
[44:19] names is going to consolidate. Go
[44:20] through the themes first and give me an
[44:22] analysis of ranking the themes for an
[44:23] investment now based on the information.
[44:25] Then give me the top two names within
[44:27] each theme. If you want to use the best
[44:29] models, GBT5. This was done with Fable
[44:32] 5, which is no longer available to you.
[44:34] But regardless, use 4.8. Use whatever
[44:36] you're using. Just use the best model.
[44:37] Have it go through. It'll spend 10
[44:39] minutes and it'll come back and say with
[44:40] inside here are the rankings that it
[44:43] says the whole rack. Chemicals and
[44:44] materials as a second one. You get to go
[44:47] through it. And then with inside these
[44:48] for chemicals, it says ENTG, MKSI, MU,
[44:52] TSM. just go through and do that type of
[44:55] work and have a superb analyst go
[44:57] through. Then you can take those names
[44:59] and then you can go put them in your
[45:00] knowledge brain and say, "Hey, based on
[45:02] what Jensen Yuang has said this year,
[45:03] and again, if you don't know what a
[45:04] knowledge brain is, this is every
[45:07] transcript so far this year." That's the
[45:08] way I created it. That's what I gave you
[45:10] guys of every single transcript that
[45:13] Jensen Yuang has done that was at least
[45:14] 30 minutes long. So, this is from
[45:16] YouTube. I used the YouTube API key. It
[45:19] goes in, it brings them all in. So all
[45:21] of that, let's assume that there's 15 of
[45:23] them. They're an hour on average an hour
[45:25] long, which is shorter than they are
[45:26] because I'd say they're more like an
[45:28] hour and 30 minutes. You're getting a
[45:30] lot of interview on interviews. Jensen
[45:32] Yuan speaks more freely. He talks about
[45:34] things. He doesn't specifically name
[45:35] companies maybe, but he talks about all
[45:37] themes. If you go in there and say,
[45:38] "Does Integris fit what Jensen Yuang has
[45:41] said in his progression on this point
[45:42] more now than it was at the beginning?"
[45:44] You'll get an answer from the brain. I
[45:46] use the brain for everything like that.
[45:48] Mythos 5 again our internal protein
[45:52] design experts accelerated acid. This is
[45:54] all on the drug discovery and all on the
[45:57] benefits of biology. I highly recommend
[45:59] this startup company which is Chai. Chai
[46:02] discovery. Look how young these guys
[46:05] are. You have to go look that where they
[46:07] spun out of in terms of the LLM models
[46:10] and go realize why again Fizer and Eli
[46:12] Liy have invested into this one as well.
[46:17] Go listen to the interviews. Just go
[46:18] into podcast, type in chai. I listened
[46:20] to a bunch of them this week. You'll get
[46:22] to hear the advances that have gone
[46:24] through. David Sinclair, one of the
[46:26] first people I read on longevity and had
[46:28] a huge influence on me in terms of
[46:30] believing that we were going to solve
[46:31] the problem of aging. After 25 years of
[46:33] brave and brilliant work by hundreds
[46:35] scientists in my lab to understand and
[46:36] safely reverse aging for the first time,
[46:38] it was moving to witness the first human
[46:40] dose being delivered. We are at the
[46:42] point with the eyes where he is putting
[46:46] in a therapy to make cells young. And if
[46:49] you haven't read about this, read it.
[46:50] Huge implications again for this. What a
[46:54] better place to get into Eli Liy and the
[46:56] entire health care sector which should
[46:58] benefit. Look how much it's
[47:00] underperformed. And if you go look at
[47:02] the way it's traded and how it's done
[47:04] recently, it's starting to outperform. I
[47:06] just think healthcare is a great place
[47:08] to be looking at this point, guys. and
[47:10] Bitcoin still hanging on the 200 week. I
[47:12] will say it again and again. We are
[47:14] below the 200 day. We are in a bare
[47:15] market in Bitcoin. There's no way to
[47:16] look at this and think we're not until
[47:18] we get above the 200 day and eventually
[47:20] above this level. I personally continue
[47:24] to buy little bits in here. I already
[47:25] have some. I just continue to go through
[47:27] this. I'm fully aware that it may break
[47:30] through and come down here and then come
[47:31] back up. It did that back here. I just
[47:33] want to highlight to you guys that I
[47:34] fully believe that crypto is a major
[47:37] part of the application layer of AI
[47:40] benefiting from Aentic. I've said it
[47:42] before, I'll say it again and again.
[47:43] That's it for this week, guys. I'll see
[47:45] you next week. Gonix.