Jordi Visser / VisserLabs
The Market Didn’t Crash, Humanity Didn’t Die — But Crypto Just Broke Out
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TL;DR
Research summary
▶ Quiet markets and the crypto inflection thesis
The speaker characterizes the week as quiet for stocks and AI trades despite alarming headlines, including an AI pause, oil moving higher, 10-year rates reaching levels last seen in 2007, and a 25-basis-point Fed hike. They say people who sold equities early in the week lost out as markets rallied. The speaker identifies crypto as the story of the week and month, arguing that AI and crypto are linked and that crypto was built for AI. They compare the current buildout to China’s infrastructure boom and the internet buildout before the iPhone and App Store, and reject claims about AI debt or crashes as, in their view, misleading when made without firsthand use of the technology. They predict a shift toward digital transactions and agents, encourage learning about tokenization and crypto assets, and caution listeners not to treat their views as certain; their stated aim is to maximize upside and minimize downside.
▶ Relative performance and the crypto index
The speaker says they do not expect another stock bull market like the first two quarters’ AI rally, attributing current multiple compression to change in the old system. They expect stocks may still return gains as earnings grow, and allow for a rally through the end of the first quarter, but would not bet heavily on it. They cite quarter-to-date figures: S&P up 2%, Nasdaq down 3%, semiconductors down 14%, Ethereum up 66%, Bitcoin up 53%, and Solana up 38%. Their 46-name crypto portfolio/index, which includes some public stocks, had names up as much as 21% in a day and nearly 100% for the month; they say the index made new highs for the year and is correlated closely with Bitcoin, while the broader ecosystem is performing better. They suggest this could imply another 15% upside for Bitcoin, presenting that as their interpretation.
▶ Why AI agents could make crypto useful
The speaker frames the convergence of liquidity, AI, and blockchain as the reason for their crypto thesis. In their view, earlier crypto infrastructure resembled a ghost city: built out but lacking users, because people and major financial institutions had little reason to use it. They argue AI agents are beginning to provide that demand and that tokenization and cheaper on-chain transactions could increase money velocity over time, even if people adopt slowly. They say crypto’s benefit depends on the arrival of automated AI researchers and agentic systems, and point to a paper by hedge fund manager Leopold Aschenbrenner as describing an inflection point involving GDP, science, technology, robotics, and cognitive labor. The speaker stresses that learning crypto requires understanding a new vocabulary and how assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Zcash fit together. They plan to spend the next two months explaining the thesis and then covering ten verticals, primarily for paid subscribers, and say the material is also relevant to financial advisers and hedge funds.
▶ Bearish headlines, AI risks, oil, and the Fed
Reviewing the week, the speaker says a warning from Dario Amodei to slow AI development unsettled investors, with cybersecurity stocks rising and semiconductors falling; software outperformed semiconductors by 10%. They dismiss a reported estimate of more than a 10% chance that AI could kill humanity as, in their opinion, poorly grounded, while saying AI-agent swarms seizing parts of the internet within a year are possible and that people will fear new technology. They argue that bearish AI narratives about GPU prices, debt, and model competition may be premature: frontier labs such as Anthropic and OpenAI have an advantage, they say, and faster model releases suggest rapid improvement, though this may change. The speaker says demand for computing exceeds supply and expects that to persist, while noting physical constraints on building infrastructure. They also suggest AI-safety debate may be politically amplified, but say they do not know whether it will slow the labs. On oil at $105, they argue it is less economically burdensome than in 2008 because household net worth is higher, the U.S. is now a gas provider, and gas spending is a historically low share of disposable income; they concede higher oil may lift headline inflation. They report the Fed raised rates 25 basis points and argue current conditions differ from 2022, citing falling core CPI and their expectation that core PCE will decline.
▶ Rates, earnings, and economic vulnerability
The speaker argues that higher rates alone do not make equities bearish in the current economy. They contrast earlier periods, when corporate debt and falling home prices made the economy rate-sensitive, with the present, when they say households have substantial housing equity and many homeowners are locked into lower-rate mortgages. They argue the largest growth-driving companies, especially the Mag 7 and AI-related businesses, have little rate sensitivity. They cite a set of economic observations as true: growth near full potential, full employment, inflation above 3% partly reflecting energy and tariffs, AI infrastructure investment powering growth, and the non-AI economy struggling. They also acknowledge the tension that reining in the AI boom or further pressuring the rest of the economy would be undesirable. The speaker points to weak charts for restaurants, retail, household durables, and a low-income consumer basket, while saying earnings revisions are strong in AI and energy and weaker in consumer-linked areas. They contrast this with 2022, when revisions were broadly negative amid overhiring and overspending, and say there is currently no indication of a comparable downturn. They concede GPU or chip prices could fall, bottlenecks could slow investment, and debt could then be a concern, but say they see no evidence of that yet and that AI is accelerating.
▶ Muted market moves and credit signals
The speaker describes the week’s combination of hot PPI and CPI readings, AI-safety headlines, the Fed’s hawkish 25-basis-point hike, Brent reaching 110, and 10-year rates at their highest since 2007; despite this, S&P futures ended down about 30 basis points. They say realized market moves remained small relative to implied volatility and describe the market as broadly sideways, with an immediate recovery after a post-Fed selloff. Since June 25, they cite oil rising from 67 to 92, 10-year rates from 430 to 502, two-year rates from 415 to 473, and tech momentum falling 48%. In contrast, they say the Mag 7 were near highs and their HYG-to-IEF credit proxy made new highs for the year, suggesting credit was not showing broad stress. They argue that a fall in crude of $10 could support new equity highs if stocks have absorbed the bad news, while noting the Iran ceasefire expectation was below 40% and that rates were already around 5%.
▶ Portfolio rotation and equity positioning
The speaker says they have not increased AI exposure and that about 20% of their portfolio is now in the AI trade, down from about 80% previously. Crypto and silver make up most of the portfolio after a rotation, and the speaker says they continue adding to crypto rather than AI names. They still hold Marvell and Nvidia as their two largest positions, Eli Lilly as a large position they classify as AI-related, and also say they own “Yes. A AOI” and Fluence, which they say has fallen about 80%. They explain that they move holdings toward what they see as the best opportunity and judge crypto to have the best risk/reward over the next year, even after its rally, because they consider it part of the AI theme. They remain positive on equities, citing the Mag 7’s proximity to highs and an AI bearishness reading of 53. They present historical conditions of high bearishness with VIX below 20, and a structural bull market with the S&P above its 50-week moving average, as rare and historically supportive; they warn that selling alongside a growing bearish crowd may be risky. They also note that all seven Mag 7 stocks were above their 50-day average for only eight days during the year, last occurring June 4, and say synchronized strength could reflect benefits from AI agents. The speaker sees that group’s behavior, and Oracle’s credit default swap history, as important context for sentiment.
▶ Agentic AI, adoption, and investment themes
The speaker recommends listening to Jensen Huang and Brad Gerstner on AI, and returns to Aschenbrenner’s 2024 paper and its proposed automated AI researcher inflection point. They say the present pace of model progress is faster than the paper anticipated, and argue that autonomous researchers can help companies build products and accelerate adoption, productivity, and earnings. They acknowledge negative risks including hacking, AI safety concerns, and possible human extinction; they cite Elon Musk’s stated range of a 10% chance of extinction and an 80–90% chance of extreme prosperity, then argue that the expected-value case is strongly positive if those probabilities are accepted. The speaker says the demand will increasingly come from agents and companies rather than human adopters, and recounts spending four hours setting up a Robinhood blockchain wallet as an example of why an agent would help users navigate crypto. They describe a planned agentic infrastructure index and say they expect its roughly 100 names to outperform the S&P 500 by 20–40% a year, while warning that not every name will work and a single-name investor takes concentrated risk. Named areas include robotics and physical systems, consumer agents, digital labor, scientific discovery, agent swarms applied to unfinished intellectual property, and autonomous commerce, which they connect to crypto. They say they are currently focused mainly on crypto and plan to publish an index of beneficiaries.
▶ Scientific discovery, consumer agents, and productivity
The speaker argues agents could make proprietary data, cybersecurity, biotech, longevity, and intellectual property more valuable by finding and developing uses for information and unfinished work. They compare agent collaboration to coordinated scientific work and say 10,000 agents solved Navier–Stokes in 88 hours, contrasting this with human academic incentives and organizational friction. They describe this as a source of faster disruption and an advantage for AI-native businesses. In biotech, they see Eli Lilly and its purchases of intellectual property and work with “toune lab” as fitting their consumer-agent thesis; they expect some breakthroughs to produce large share-price jumps, while acknowledging not all companies need to succeed. They discuss Meta’s Muse and a startup called Instinct, reported as fundraising at a $2.5 billion valuation on August 26, 2026, as examples of consumer agents. Potential uses they list include visa applications, coordination with other agents, negotiating, reducing bills, and cancelling subscriptions. They say agentic adoption has arrived faster than they expected, and argue the traditional chain from money growth to GDP, revenue, hiring, and earnings is changing: they claim hiring is near zero outside healthcare while earnings are growing close to 30% and margins are expanding. They expect tokenization to provide liquidity and cite U.S. earnings breaking out of a 90-year channel and software revenue per employee rising sharply after AI as evidence of productivity change.
▶ Crypto rails, index performance, and next steps
The speaker says the Clarity Act did not pass but argues crypto’s next phase depends less on conventional liquidity cycles and more on tokenization of dormant assets and AI agents generating revenue, fees, activity, and developer demand. They cite U.S. markets being set to expand to 23-hour weekday trading on December 6 and a five-year exemption for tokenized stocks, describing these as infrastructure developments; they expect weekend trading eventually. They compare crypto’s unused infrastructure to a ghost city and to internet infrastructure built before widespread applications, saying the 2022 crypto failures resemble telecom companies collapsing after infrastructure investment. In their view, the investment opportunity comes as the ghost city fills with agent activity and draws business from traditional finance. They contrast a crypto market capitalization of about $3–4 trillion with a $900 trillion fiat system and say agents need their own financial infrastructure. Their 46-name index includes six public stocks such as Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle, with the rest tokens; the speaker says the index reached yearly highs, was up 8.4% that day, 14% month to date, and 32% year to date, with 43 of 46 names above their 50-day average, 37 with rising 50-day averages, and 27 at their 200-day average. They argue Bitcoin needs ecosystem usage and fundamental value to reach a gold-like market capitalization. The speaker calls this the beginning of a bull market, while disclosing they aim to educate listeners and not lose them money. They announce forthcoming subscriber material on crypto, AI themes, and “ghost rails,” and mention planned crypto events.
Full transcript
[0:00] Um, humanity is still here. So, most weeks when I do this, uh, there's actually a lot to talk about in the market. Uh, when when you get a week like this where you get all the bare porn out on Sunday, I get contacted by more hedge fund people in a weekend in a long time to see how the AI trade is going to play. Uh, and pretty much everyone who reached
[0:30] out where I said this is just another one of these knee-jerk one day and then by the time we get a week to 10 days later, nobody will remember it. I think everyone keeps learning their lessons on this. Uh, but overall it was a very quiet week for stocks. It was a very quiet week for uh AI trades. It was just overall a very quiet week despite the fact that we had AI pause, 10% chance humanity dies, oil soaring higher on Monday, 10 year rates
[1:01] get to 2007 levels for the first time. Fed raises in a hawkish hike and if you sold the market on Monday morning when it opened, you lost. if you sold it uh at the close on Wednesday, which a lot of people uh that I follow said this was the time to be out of equities and everything else and yet somehow another we made we were able to rally. The story of the week and the story for the month is crypto. I have talked endlessly about this and we
[1:31] are finally at the point. So last May to June I said that by the time we get to se September October we will be at the most important inflection point for crypto and the reason would be because of the merging of AI agents. AI and crypto are together. Crypto does not exist without AI. It was built for AI and most people don't recognize that. So before I start this I want to make sure there's a lot of things I'm going to go through here. This week I will be sending out my first video on uh on
[2:02] crypto for subscribers. So for those of you who watch this every week that have been waiting for it, this will be basically a very extended version on why now. Uh I'm not going to go through all of that today. I'm not going to take you through the details. Um but as I've said, I've created an index. It made new highs for the year today. I posted that in X for macro people. This is the most important macro trade of everyone's existence. This is the beginning of something that is very very similar to
[2:33] the times that I traveled to China. For any of you that I traveled to China with who I've not spoken with, those times that we went to China from 2003 to 2013 when they were building roads bigger than what they needed and they had ghost cities and all of this stuff, the.com bubble where we were building the infrastructure necessary, but we didn't actually get the iPhone until 2007. So all these stories that you're hearing about debt, about crashes, about that, it's all BS.
[3:03] It's all meant to scare you. Everything I read on AI is just a complete gobbledegoop of garbage. Uh it's just people literally writing things that have nothing to do with facts. They might be right down the road, but you can't argue with it if you don't use it. And so everyone that's taking some kind of history and pasting it over. What I am going to do today for a bit of this is paste over where we are in crypto, why it was built, why we've gone through this long period of 16 years, which is
[3:33] very similar from the internet to when the iPhone came out. It's almost the exact amount of time and why the iPhone and the app store was why this works because there is no Uber, there is no Airbnb, there is no almost everything you do in your life without the smartphone and without the app store. And for crypto, I will tell you guys, your entire world is changing. There has not been a macro change like this in the history of mankind. We are going to a digital transaction with digital agents, digital employees, everything is going
[4:04] digital. And so if you want to understand what tokenization is, if you want to understand the names that are in there, what Zcash is, what Bit Tenzor is, what a go up and down the line, all of these things are going to be a part of your life whether you like it or not. So you either learn or you don't. And at least with me, you're getting someone who's doing it from a systems thinking perspective, who's a macro person for those who know me and they like what I do on the AI side. They like the way I talk about macro. I'm been spending my time to make sure that I can give you the same thing in crypto in that way.
[4:36] All right, you guys can read this on your own. Do not take anything I say as being certain. I'm wrong all the time. The key is maximize upside, minimize downside. I'm going to show this again because after today, quarter to date, here are the stocks. So, I'm going to say this right now. I don't think we will ever have another big bull market in stocks like the one we saw in the first quarter of this
[5:06] year, the first two quarters of this year for AI. I believe the multiple compression is the old system basically going through something there. So the Fed's going to have they've chosen to raise rates. The only way I thought we'd get a surge in stocks would be if they cut rates. The fact that they raised rates and stocks are just sitting here while earnings continue to grow. You'll still get returns in stocks, but remember bonds are basically unchanged for how long now? I mean, I'm sure we'll be here in two years and we'll say it'll
[5:36] be a decade, but regardless, stocks so far this quarter, S&P up 2%. NASDAQ down three, semis down 14, Ethereum up 66%, Bitcoin up 53%. Salana up 38. Those are the three main ones. Those are the layer ones that I want you to focus on. But underneath the hood for crypto to get a quick thing out while you're sitting there spinning your wheels for not not just this month, for
[6:09] the entire quarter trying to chase stocks up and down, responding to oil, responding to rates, and watching this whole thing and just getting gutted. Everyone made their money in the first two quarters of the year when we got the rally in AI. I'm not sure going forward that we're going to have the kinds of rally that are necessary for people to go because I do think the market will go higher. If you're running long short, I would guess between now and the end of the first quarter, we're going to see a good rally in stocks. But I wouldn't bet
[6:40] heavy on it because I don't think you're going to get much return. But in crypto, here's what you're getting on Friday. I'm not showing you the names. These are the names in my 46 name portfolio. Some of these are public stocks. This is the vertical they represent. 21% in a day, almost a hundred for the month. Look at these numbers. Is it above the 50-day? Yes. Yes. Yes. We're at a different point now. Here's what the chart looks like. I said my 46 name index broke to new highs for the year.
[7:12] That puts Bitcoin up significantly from here. Another 15% from here. Uh and this is Bitcoin overlaid with it. The correlation remains basically one for one. The difference is the ecosystem is doing better. Bitcoin, remember, is part of the ecosystem. So, I posted this in X. 10% chance AI kills humanity. 100% chance crypto was built for AI. So, for all you guys who've made money on AI this year, all the macro teams that have jumped into AI, all the pod teams,
[7:43] crypto is now where you want to have your focus. Why now? I'm not going to spend time on today, but for those I did travel to China. China built ghost cities. Ghost cities, there's no economic activity, but there's a bunch of infrastructure. That's where crypto is. The problem is crypto was never meant for human beings. Even though the crypto gang thought it was, it was never going to get the wealthiest people that own the $900 trillion, the banks, the institutions to actually start using it.
[8:14] What is going to use it? what cares about it are AI agents and they're already starting to and so this is the reason why I have waited and I've been patient and this is why why now is about the perfect convergence liquidity plus AI plus the blockchain everything that you've learned about macroeconomics in terms of well the liqu and and in crypto I hear this from both sides the liquidity cycle we're doing M2 does not matter anymore M2 relative to what's
[8:44] happening with tokenization relative to what's going to happen with the velocity of money. We are going to see an explosion in the velocity as everything moves on chain gradually by time because it will be cheaper to deal on uh on chain. Will people be slow to move? Of course, that's what they did with Uber. We all know parents and grandparents that either never used Uber or they barely moved over. But in a world where every penny matters, where time matters, you're going to use the agents and
[9:14] they're here and they're getting valued high. This is private companies, too. So, I'm going to take you through that as we go on. The reason now is because we couldn't have crypto benefit until we reached the automated AI researcher. This is hedge fund manager Leopold Ashen Brener from his situational awareness paper, the 165page paper he wrote in 2024. When we hit this point, we get an explosion in all of these things, including GDP, military edge, robots,
[9:44] science and technology, cognitive labor. I'll go through this. This is where we are. Okay, we're at that inflection point, which is why crypto matters. And this is the last thing I'm going to do on crypto before I go through the week that was I want you to understand in someone who has spent now the better part of five years mainly situated on Bitcoin but then spreading out into the ecosystem in particular over the course of the last two thinking that you understand crypto or that you don't need to know it is the
[10:14] same thing for me as trying to say to people if you know baseball you don't know cricket. And I'm bringing this up because the the complexity of learning a completely new language. Why tokenization matters, why stable coins matter, what is Ethereum, what is Salana, what is Bitcoin, what is Zcash, why how do they all fit into the equation. It takes a lot of time. And so for the people making decisions at the highest level of a hedge fund, it's very
[10:45] very hard to pick this up. And so what I will be spending my time doing for the next two months for sure as I go through why now then I will start going through each of the 10 verticals probably two or three a week to take you through the names to give you an understanding of what's going on. That is what will be on the subscriber website for hedge funds. If you don't pay for the subscriber website or mutual funds or whatever you're going to need to this stuff is going behind the payw wall. This is the stuff that I will be talking about. This is what I do presentations on right now
[11:16] for financial advisors and RAAS. If you're worried that you are going to fall behind with your clients, the same way with AI, this is far more important than AI because it's very easy for someone to understand what Micron does. They just have to go read. But to understand what Zcash is and what near is and I can go on and on. It's going to take a lot more learning and your viewpoint of it is that it's a scam. So the week that was I did my thing on Friday last week Daario came out and said we have to slow down. That got everyone freaked out. So Monday we get
[11:46] in here. You get cyber gapping up which moves the software sector up. You get semi semiconductors down. So what you end up with is a 10% the biggest outperformance of software verse semis. I'm sure it hurt a lot of people. Anthropic researcher believes more than 10% chance AI could kill all humans. Incredibly stupid. Um, and no reason for you guys to to think about it, warn if if that's what's going to happen. It's not something you can go defend against. Um, and it's very hard to come up with
[12:16] how you kill all of humanity. So, we can kill people and I'm sure we will. Um, Anthropic Co warns AI agents swarms could seize the internet within a year. This is a story now going around more and more. Again, I 100% believe that this is possible, especially as you read the hugging face thing. 100%. I subscribe to the fact that will there be an issue? Yes. And will humans be scared? Yes. Just like they've been with every new technology, bar none. This is not the first time we've worried about
[12:47] humanity. Could AI really wipe out humanity? It's a global thing. So, let's go through the bearish forecast that we get constantly and the reality. So, the reason I said the BS and the bear porn and whatever you're reading, whether it's Michael Bur, Jim Chenos, whether it's the stuff in X that comes out all the time, GPU prices are going to fall. I get stuff every single week, guys. I had a CPA send me something this week to try and prove to me that here's just the fact it may happen. We may get to a point where the frontier model companies
[13:18] are selling their incredibly important brains to nobody. the open source are not as good. None of that stuff is the same as what they're doing. Who's solving the math prizes? It's anthropic and open AI. Now, again, this may change over time, but they have a huge advantage, and it's very clear at this point that they've hit some kind of recursive self-improvement by the fact that we're getting models out quicker and quicker, and now they've reached a point where they're scared because they're ahead of the safety side. So, if you read through all of these things
[13:48] that have been out there and then you read at the facts, we need things to change. So, if you're listening to people and getting worried, it's costing you money. Now, right now, the market's not moving, but as we get through earnings and we have the next wave of this, at some point here, we're going to go higher. The mag seven, if you have not seen, are near all-time highs. That's an important read to me with consumer agents. I'll get into that as I go through this. Demand is greater than supply. It's going to remain that way for a long time in my opinion. I don't see how we
[14:19] can catch up. It's just physics. We'll solve problems with intelligent uh with Einstein level intelligent but we still you can come up with a solution and say this is a better battery but then you have to go build the bit the better battery. It's not that simple to get the parts. This guy gets 172 million views. Obviously this is involving politics. Obviously this is involving geopolitics. There is no way for this thing to go this viral and for this to be there. We're ahead of a midterm. So, if you guys are going to listen and get all
[14:50] caught up in this, it's obvious that this is part some of this because it is a major issue. Whether this slows down the uh anthropic open AI because they have to redo the risk side, I don't really know. But I do know this. It just seems way too political at this point and way too we don't want to be responsible for the liability of what may happen. Again, Jeffrey Hinton, the godfather of AI, has been talking about how dangerous AI is for a long time. We had 87 million views on this Matt
[15:22] Schumer one that there'd be no jobs by 2028. The Satranei one by 2028, same thing. 28.7 million. Oh, we have a cancer vaccine, 11 million. People want to see the end of the world. That's what sells and that's what gets the hype. And I said geopolitical. If the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, and anyone that's at battle with the US wants to break us politically, the easiest thing to do is continue to make data centers an issue, make AI an issue, and everything else.
[15:52] Whatever the the facts are, we had a cancer vaccine. I can't think of anything more important. And yet, we're focused on things which are the same things that have gone on. This had three million views. This was June 6, 2023. This was less than six months after the launch of ChatGpt. Why AI will save the world. He had to write this because people are freaking out. So, this has been going on, guys, for a long time. China's not buying Silicon Valley's call
[16:22] for an AI slowdown. They would love an AI slowdown. We also had oil prices go up. Scary. As I've talked about, oil is $105, guys. The next time someone tells you oil is going higher and they show you a chart, you tell them Jordy Visser was in China in 2008. Oil was $150 can household net worth is up, I don't know, three times where it is. We've added a hundred and something trillion dollars. Gas as a percentage of disposable income for this country has
[16:52] never been lower. We are now a gas provider. Yes, some of the world is going to have problems in in gas being higher, but at the same point, their net worth is higher as well. This is just completely stupid. Does it mean headline inflation will be a little bit higher? Yeah, but it's not 2022. Stocks falls, Fed delivers hawkish rate hike. We just raised 25 basis points. Maybe we'll do another 50 over the course there. I didn't think we'd do one this year because CPI core CPI has kept going lower, but they decided to do it
[17:22] because for whatever reason he was put into it. I have no idea. I really don't care. They're panicked about rates, whatever. But here's the facts. This is not 2022. We don't have 10% inflation playing from a behind the curve. We have core CPI going down. As I'm going to show you with Goldman Sachs forecast and with everyone that knows, the PCE core is going to go down because of things that are coming out of it. The main point of this is they raised 25 basis points. this as much as I want people to think as I saw a bunch of macro people getting paid money to deliver forecasts
[17:53] saying that this meant stocks would go down because stocks don't like when rates go higher. I'm going to say this once I'm going to show you guys as things go on before 2008 before then we had recessions or before 2009 and the reason we did is because rates really mattered. When rates went higher, the economy was based on corporate debt at companies that ran into really big problems and homeowners
[18:23] whose house prices went down because rates went higher. Right now, we have tons of equity in the housing market and everyone's trapped because they locked in mortgages at lower rates. So, we don't have the rate sensitivity there. Second thing is, I don't know if you guys know this, Nvidia's $5 trillion. As I'll show you later, the total sum of the consumer discretionary household durables, retails, restaurants, those companies, including some big ones like Home Depot and McDonald's, not including Amazon,
[18:53] one a half trillion. Nvidia is five and a quarter trillion. The stock market represents what is driving growth. The Mag 7 are much bigger. They have no rate sensitivity. whatsoever. The AI trade, despite what you'll hear from bond people, have no rate sensitivity whatsoever in what's going on. Mark Xandandy, these are true. Economy is already growing near full potential. True. Operating at full employment. True. Inflation is too high to be sure, running above 3%, but much of that is the fallout from high energy prices and tariffs. True. AI related infra
[19:25] investment appears to be powering the economy. True. While the nonAI economy is already struggling, true. To hit its inflation objective, the Fed either needs to rein in the AI boom, true, or put even more pressure on the rest of the economy. Neither is a good outcome. This is the point I keep making. Your job is to make money. It is not to sit there and think about the past. Remember Visser Labs, the V the left side linear. This is where your economists are giving you BS. The Goldman P [clears throat] core inflation forecast. [cough]
[19:57] again the effects of temporary factors the portfolio management effect all these things everyone knows this I just don't understand why people don't talk about it in terms of what's going to happen PCE core is the only one so core CPI is down at 2.3 plus% it's barely above PC core is higher for the reasons that they have here the software and accessories is due to this having a different waiting in the micron thing there's a double counting side there's everyone already knows this, but
[20:27] we're scaring people. So, is the market responding? Is the bare market happening? Yes, it is. Here's the restaurants trading at 52- week lows. Look at this collapse on rates and oil. XRT. Now, this includes Amazon, but it's equal weight. So, it's a small portion of Amazon. Here we go. Falling continuously. Here's the household durables. This includes homebuilders. Includes Home Depot. Look at it trading off. This is the Goldman Sachs lowinccome consumer basket getting near, it's the lows of
[20:57] the year, near 52- week lows. Like I said before, here are the GIX level two EPS revisions. Look at these massive numbers. The AI trade and comm and energy massive numbers. Here's what you guys are looking at. This is the ones where the revisions are going lower which is all related to the consumer. Now media and entertainment you have to strip out Google, Netflix
[21:28] and Meta and then what you're left with on the revisions negative I that's the 11 trillion. So when you go through this the total sum of these is very very tiny and that's why you have this. So in 2022 when it was time to be bearish stocks as people are telling you now and writing saying they're raising rates you have to be bearish stocks you don't have to be bearish stocks here is revisions massive negative in 2022 and again people were
[21:58] forecasting a recession never happened but equities did run into trouble the hangover from 2021 and the overhiring the overspending that's what ended up raining in this time it's not happening now could we get a you know GPU prices, chip prices to come down. Could we see bottlenecks that slow things down and then you're just left with the debt sitting out there? Of course, we don't have any indication of that like I've said and at this point right now because AI is accelerating, I'll take the other
[22:29] side on this. Um here's 2025. And the reason I wanted to bring this up again, I'll show this later too, but these periods in time were during periods of this is the tariff fears and then this is the 2022. These were recession fears. We don't have that right now. So, I put this out from a bearish week. You had a hot PPI the Thursday before. You had a hot CPI the Friday before. You had 10% chance humanity dies. You had a pause in AI. You had the Fed hawkish hike. Brent hits 110 for the first time uh or hits
[23:02] 110. I don't know if it was the first time from since whatever March. Tenure rates at the highest level since 2007. That was the week. And for the week, the S&P futures finished down about 30 basis points. But the AI bare reading hits 53. So I wanted to give you guys Well, I guess I'll get into that later. Here were the daily moves. This is in sigas. So for all of the negative stuff
[23:33] that's been happening with oil with Iran, we can't even get a one sigma move on depressed V. So, this is taking the implied V, which is the VIX, converting it into a daily move, and then taking the daily move. We're just not, we've been basically going sideways. This is a nice looking reverse and head and shoulders chart. But regardless of that, this is only a five-day chart. This is when people were calling me. And by the way, for people calling me asking me where futures are going to open up on on Sunday night, you guys start looking at spy per. Just go into Coinbase and start
[24:03] looking. You got to get used to 247 tokenized trading, guys. It's time. Um, you got to start getting some get getting getting getting ahead of the program here. Um, so we open down here and we're here. So you get this gap. Well, that cost you money for a while. Then the Fed came out. Oh, hawkish hike. Let's sell it off. And then the next day we go right back up right through it immediately. Kind of come down a little and then we continue going on. So since June 25th, that's what those circles were that I wanted to highlight to you
[24:33] guys. Since June 25th, oil prices have gone from 67 to 92. So that's 25 bucks. Since June 25th, since June 25th, 10ear rates have gone from 430 to 502. You guys are worried now. I mean, look how far we've gone up. Two-year rates have gone from 415 to 473. Oh my gosh. Since June, since right there, tech momentum fell 48%.
[25:06] Oh wow. We've seen credit spreads widen, CDS has widened on the hyperscalers. And here's the Mag 7. This was the Mag 7 on June 25th. So if you're worried about the AI trade, isn't it going to have to come to some degree from these guys? It's not going to be from Anthropic and OpenAI stock price. when we see their earnings, it could come through. Now, during true bare markets where there's bare things, the mag seven goes down. So, this is
[25:36] during the uh selloff here. You need the mag 7 going down, not about to make new all-time highs. Same thing down here. So, I just bring this up again so you guys can start to go through. If you're worried about the bond market, like I've said repeatedly for a while, you should have credit spreads widening and you should have bond volatility spiking higher. We can't even barely get a move in bond. Here is HYG relative to EF, my proxy for the S&P N4 credit to strip out yield differential. And we made new highs
[26:07] for the last year in HYG relative to EF. And remember when this sold off here, what was this off of? Well, this was on the private credit side. So, it was responding to that. This was on combination. You had Iran, you had all this, but private credit started this move here. Right now, private credit HYG is going higher. S&P that's where it was on June 25th. So, despite all the rise in tenure rates and all the ride in crude. So, I just want to tell you something. If it was able to do this
[26:37] with crude moving up that much, we're now to the end of the year. There is a less than 40% expectation of any kind of ceasefire with Iran. Now that we have a hawkish height and we already have rates at 5%. Isn't the risk for everyone who said sell equities this week if crude falls 10 bucks at some point for any reason which a tweet could do. Do you think stocks won't be at new all-time highs if they can handle all the bad news? AI trade again. This is when I did
[27:09] my famous bailout of Micron and then this is when I did my June 4th was when I did my the midcycle slowdown. I am still not increasing AI and I've had a lot of people reach out. I about 20% of my portfolio right now is in the AI trade. Back here it was about 80. As I mentioned, crypto and silver now make up most with the crypto massive performance since I did the rotation. It's much bigger. And I keep adding to crypto. I'm not adding to the AI names at this point. I still have Marll. I
[27:40] still have Nvidia as the two biggest. Eli Liy, which I consider an AI name, is a big position, but that's not the AI trade that you guys are looking for. I still own Yes. A AOI. I still own Fluence even though it's fallen about 80%. For those of you who are trading, if you're picking oneoff names in here, the reason I have a bunch of names is because I move my portfolio around based on the things that I provide the biggest opportunity. Even though crypto's had a big rally, if you ask me what has the best riskreward for me over the next year, it is still crypto, not the AI
[28:11] infrastructure trade. And that is because crypto is an AI trade. It is part of my thematic AI portfolio, but it is not part of the agent one which I'm working on now. Again, this is about as bullish as it gets. The MAG7's up there. They benefit tremendously from the AI agents. Here is the AI 53 level. This is a big level except for this point. point. I mean, this goes back only two times that we've hit this level in the last four years were during the complete
[28:43] chaos of 2022 and during the tariffs to show you how unusual it is. AI be a AI AI bearish over since 1990. So, 1875 weeks only happens four and a half times out of 100. Okay, these are the performance going forward for these when you combine this with a VIX which is lower than 20. So think about that. You have a bearishness
[29:13] but the cost of insurance is low. Well, that seems like a good time to be looking at the long side and it is n 89% of the time. It's 10 times over the last whatever years doesn't happen often. 53 basis 50.53%. Now to also get it above 50 in a structural bull market defined by the S&P above its 50week moving average that happens 1% of the time again very good positive numbers with all three conditions so VIX is low we're in a
[29:45] structural bull market bearishness is high only nine times and again very solid numbers so this doesn't happen and as I wrote this would be one of the more structural positive things to be in a bare market while people are getting bare bearish to be in a bull market while people are getting bearish and that's where we are now. So for everyone saying sell equities I think you're in a very dangerous position based on history given that you're joining the bear crowd which is already there climbing the wall of worry. This is a classic definition of it
[30:15] and again the mag seven here they were back on that June 25th when all the bad news and they're near the highs of a quarter. Now, the Mag 7, the reason I brought them up there is there's another thing going on. The Mag 7, very seldom this year, have all seven of them, all seven of them. So, that includes the hyperscalers, plus Apple, plus Nvidia, plus Tesla. They're uh they haven't been above the 50-day moving average, all of them,
[30:47] except for eight days the entire year. These are the periods. The last time was June 4th. So I do view this as if we're going to get a big move higher in equities, I think one of the reasons would be because all of the mag seven are benefiting. Now if you add in Oracle, you get less days. The reason I care about Oracle is because it is a very large stock and a hyperscaler. And I believe this bearish sentiment, a lot of it for the market began in October of last year with the CDS blowing out on Oracle. And I don't think it's ever left
[31:17] people. I think the people that thought it was a bubble in October missed the entire rally in terms of semiconductors and now they're sitting there still bearish because the AI trade has peaked and even though it's still up massively, Korea is still up 60% year to date. Uh Taiwan is about to make new all-time highs, all of that, you've had eight days. Now to put that in context, this year only four and a half% of the trading days has that occurred in 2023. 36% of the time we've been declining on
[31:48] the MAG 7 being above the 50-day. I think this is an important period to watch because they're breaking out and unlike the prior times where Meta was collapsing and Microsoft was collapsing and the AI was going to destroy. They're all sitting there and I think that's because of AI agents, they all benefit from AI agents. All of them. And that's the point I want to get into. The reason the economy is different again the economy is based on the top 10%. the bottom part of the economy gets transfer payments. So unless you're going to fire people, which is not
[32:18] happening, how do you get anything bad in the stock market if everyone has money to spend and you're doing it because oil is going higher, which I'm telling you does not matter the way it used to. Gas prices as a percentage of disposable income remain near historic low. If you do gas prices as a percentage of household wealth, it's an even bigger joke. Oil doesn't matter the way it used to. The AI boom is transforming America. We know that this is chat GPT. This is what's going on. I
[32:49] mean, give me a break. Jensen Yuang spoke this week. So for everyone who listened to the anthropic kid, who listened to Dario Moda, just go listen to Jensen. And at the all-in summit, whenever you listen to him, especially at a time like this, and yes, President Trump called him while he was on stage, but this is really about what he said about everything happening today and the industrial revolution that's going on. Don't lose focus on this because you're worried about people telling you it's time to be bearish. Brad Gersonner went through everything and I thought he was
[33:20] very, very balanced in terms of the way that he approached this. It's worth listening. It's worth going through. So the AI labs just in terms of this anthropic and open AI. This is kind of the you know really the the critical thing and he talks about it. So I'm not giving you any of the uh I'm not taking you through the transcript uh in terms of the important points because I think you guys should just go watch those two and get this thing out of your mind. Okay? If you haven't brought this up, bring it up in an LLM and start doing so
[33:52] you can check some of the things I'm going to show you. But this is really important. Whatever you think or know of Liupold uh Ashen Brener, this paper came out 2024, the decade ahead, two almost I mean he's six the the the models are six months ahead. So this automated I AI researcher point is really really critical. So this is effectively one of the um slides. I believe it's on page 71. But this is
[34:23] what happens. And the reason this is important, don't think of it as AGI or ASI or anything like that. I'm going to take you through, but this is the point where what's happening right now is exactly what this is, the hackings. So that's the negative side of reaching this point is the hugging face episode, the mythos fears. We've reached this point, but there's a lot of good that comes from it too. So we've already accomplished based on his research and
[34:54] these are the facts between the releases and the key things that have happened this year. It's really important for you to understand how fast this is moving and ignore the people that are telling you that there's too much debt. I don't know how to get this out of people's mind. It is so insane to me that people are worried about the investment grade debt for the best balance sheets on the planet when they're sitting there watching that the United States of America can have $40 trillion of debt, which everyone keeps telling you and Ray Dalia has tried to make a living post
[35:24] the hedge fund telling you how bad this is going to be because we have so much debt. Yes, Japan's been in this problem forever. AI is a government thing. There's no way we allow the whole thing to come down. So, this comes down to usage. And like I said before, I don't know how to tell people. We're past humans adopting it. That's why this is working. And that's why what he's saying is so important. When you get to the point of the RSI, the recursive self-improvement, the point where you've
[35:54] got autonomous researchers, that means companies can just say, as I showed with Astra last week, build this for me. and it's built. We're at the point now where that means that Salesforce.com can hand out products to people with agents. Like the agentic side is where adoption starts to accelerate and it goes at the expense of expenses. It's a productivity boom. And that's what he talks about in the paper. That's where we are right now is millions of AI researchers operating faster than humans. But it is all this
[36:27] point here that was supposed to be in 2027 that's happening now early stages now. This is the part here and that means we're accelerating things and nobody expected it to happen this fast. So that's why an anthropic researcher believes they're absolutely 10%. In fact, Elon Musk gave an interview with Ted Cruz during the summer where he said there's a 20 maybe 10% chance advanced AI leads to human extinction within the next 10 5 10 years. That would be the headline for the media. But then he
[36:58] says, but there's an 80 to 90% full that it's extreme prosperity. So if you're managing money and you worry about this if there's no humanity, don't worry. Nobody's going to pay you. So there's no need to bet on it. The expected value of a 10% chance of the end of humanity and 90% chance of abundance is basically all upside. So you can sit there and play the game. You
[37:28] can listen to it. You can pretend that that's there. I'm just telling you the demand side is from nonhumans. The adoption is happening from agents. This is why it's so important to crypto. As someone who set up a Robin Hood blockchain uh wallet, it took me four hours. I use AI all day long. There were so many things to get through. So, I need an agent to do this for me quickly and go through the pain to speak the language and not have to go look it up.
[37:58] That's why we're entering a period where the models are coming out so fast that you don't know how to keep up. Which model do I get? Astra came out. Fable 5.1. That's because the models are coming too fast. That's an indication that the agentic world is here and humans can't handle the speed. We cannot handle the speed. But luckily, the debt is in human speed. The it the demand is going to come from companies that have trillions of dollars of revenues that will easily be able to give trillions of
[38:28] dollars to the model companies. And there's no way that open-source is as good as the model companies. So, it'll be 90%. If you want to use Jensen Yuang's thing, there's plenty of water that we use in our lives. Not a lot that we pay for, but we all pay for bottled water. So, again, you can go through this thing and try to figure it out where it is the positive side of agents forms. And this is where I come in to hopefully the same way I have the Agentic infrastructure portfolio, which I'm saying will continue to outperform
[38:58] the S&P 500 by 20 to 40% a year. So, there's alpha. All of those hundred names, in my opinion, will outperform. They'll go at different times. Not all of them will work. My job is to give you an index that works. If you try to pick one name, you're taking now risk in that one name. The agent swarms. How do you get long? Here are all the things that come with that. We're at the time for robotics and physical systems, which means Tesla should be doing well. Okay, that's one to watch. the consumer
[39:28] agents. Well, this is where Microsoft, Salesforce.com, Meta, Apple, all of them fit into the consumer agent side. Uh, when you get into the digital labor side, when you get into this, this is my favorite one, the scientific discovery, which I'll kind of go through, but agent swarms solve unfinished IP. There's a business there. Autonomous commerce, this is your crypto side. So, again, all of this stuff is necessary. The infrastructure is still there. I will create an index which will have all of
[40:00] these and all the names that I think benefit in there that'll go on the subscriber wall sometime over the course of the next two weeks but I am focused on crypto mainly. So when you think about it this way and you go through it agents are opening up all of this part here. So we had the compute and power that led us to get the intelligence up to an IQ at Einstein level and now cryptos are the main benefit and because there is no investment there at all because it is completely not understood. Unlike the power and compute side which
[40:31] got got way too big way too quick, this one's going to take years. So go spend your time now on it. Go understand the things I'm talking about. Longevity. This is a phenomenal place to make money. And it fits with the unfinished IP endorant knowledge. Any IP, any biotech company based on Navier Stokes is worth a lot of money. The data proprietary data all of a sudden. So fact set Thompson Reuters because we have agents now. All of the data becomes
[41:01] more valuable. The cyber become cyber becomes more valuable. Everything becomes more valuable. That's why you've seen this and embodied AI starts to take off because they need the agentic side too. So again, you can go through this on your own. We've reached this point. It's connecting his vision at when we reach here. This is the infrastructure side. This only happens when we have enough compute. So I want you to think this way as I go through this, which is two ways to organize intelligence. You just saw Oppenheimer. This is the easiest way to understand the importance
[41:32] of this. In the movie, Groves wanted to compartmentalize the different verticals and have them come in and bring their information with one little thing side. He wanted to coordinate scientific collaboration. When you go read the Navier Stokes side, this is what the agents did. Humans could have solved Navier Stokes in my opinion if they had all worked together. But the Field Medal, the Nobel Prize, the way academia is set up,
[42:02] you've heard me all speak negatively about my experience and my belief in what the school system does. It is the best way to get people to be trained for a particular major. But that ended with the internet. And with the internet, we've gotten to a point where you have to be creative. And it's only gotten more and more. So Steve Jobs, all of these people that invented and were the wealthiest people, go back and look at their job, their work situation. It's not all of them because then you started getting into the engineers, but again, having creativity, thinking outside the
[42:34] box, using the other side of your brain. Well, agents are basically going to be solving things and they're going to be doing it just like Oppenheimer. So there were about 600 brainiacs uh at the Manhattan project. There were a lot more people in general. But of the brainiac side, the Einstein side, Navier Stokes was solved by 10,000 agents working for 88 hours. All problems will be solved. And that's why I've compared this to that. And this is why the acceleration of disruption
[43:05] will increase. AI native businesses have a huge advantage. The democratization of intelligence is best used in organizations where they don't have the friction and the difficulty of meetings and people and decision makers and devil's advocates and all of this stuff that goes on and I've been a part of that and I work there. So traditional human research here you go all the friction that gets to an answer. the
[43:35] agent swarms why they can do something that Einstein or a problem that was there before Einstein and for everyone saying oh yeah the guys who were working on it said that they must have stolen their stolen or why aren't they just happy that it was solved and they were part of the process if that's what happened. So again, humans are already saying this is bad for science. This is bad for math. This will again, nobody's going to be happy in this with humans. That is the lite story. That is every anger that comes
[44:06] with technology. So I've been spending time I am writing something on the revaluation of IP in an agentic world and how the value of it goes higher. This fits in with my Eli Liy theme. Eli Liy has tons of capital coming in. They are buying IP every day. They are also bringing in biotech companies into toune lab which you guys should go look up and then understand the value of toune lab from the collaboration in the swarm
[44:36] perspective. So I believe that biotech is part of the consumer agent trade that Eli Liy is part of the consumer agent trade and the way a biotech will trade is like it did with Maderna. as we get breakthroughs, they don't trade in a fundamental basis. They just gap higher. And you don't need all of them to go higher to win. If you get a 10 bagger and a 20 bagger and a 30 bagger and I fully expect that we will see that in the biotech side over time. Muse was released. We are getting the first
[45:06] personal AI agent built for everyone. Now, the reason this is important is I want you to go back to when Mark Zuckerberg spoke at a town hall in June and he said, "We are way behind on the AI side." and it was related to AI agents. The latest viral AI assistant rocketing across Silicon Valley. Buzzy startup Instinct, which is fundraising at a 2 and a half billion valuation. That was on August 26, 2026. Go read about Instinct. Now, if you don't want to read about it, there you
[45:36] go. Here's a YouTube Instinct AI is for real. This came out this week. Here's what I'm I'm not going to go through everything, but basically, and I talked about this with Pomp on our video this week because he's been using it. I have not, but all of these horrible things like applying for visas, and I and yes, if you have an assistant at work, but that assistant at work is doing it. all the personal assistance stuff, what they can do, the time savings, the money savings, coordinating with other people's agents, negotiating,
[46:06] reducing bills, cancelling subscription. All you got to do is tell this thing it it will go out there and do it just needs the information. So AI agents, techbased AI assistants are a hot market with Instinct, W Joe Town, Ali, and Meta's Muse Agent, which launched last week, vying for users attention. We're at the consumer agent side, guys. I've been waiting for this. I didn't expect it to happen this fast, but when we get the hugging face incident, when
[46:36] we get the Navier Stokes incident, that means we're there. When we get the pause AI incident, that means we're there. We are at the agentic side. And so, you're going to have a new economy. And for everyone on the macro side where it was well M2 growth then we get nominal GDP that translates into some multiple and topline revenue. We get earnings to grow and we hire people. The missing link we're not hiring anyone zero people. The only people getting hired are in healthcare. Earnings are booming at
[47:06] close to 30%. Margins are exploding but we've broken this chain and this chain is going to get further broken because we don't need the liquidity anymore. The liquidity is going to come from tokenization. And if you don't understand that yet, that's why you're going to watch the videos, okay? To see the productivity breaking out. US earnings are breaking out of a 90-year channel. Now, this does this this is not talking specifically about any kind of profitability related to productivity.
[47:37] On the upside, it's incredible when you consider the high growth periods of the past that it's just broken out. software revenue per employee from Warren Pies this week again channel from 2000 to 2023 you don't even get like a mega spike from the 2027 in the iPhone now all of a sudden the second we get AI and that's the exact timeline that he has you get a dramatic shift software revenue per employee
[48:08] all right let's finish up with crypto clarity didn't go through. Another bad news item for the week for crypto. So you had all the other bad news, oil prices higher, rates going higher, no debasement trade, everything is at for the last time. I will say this to both crypto people and macro. The time where crypto matters is when rates don't matter because all innovations eventually hit a spot where they grow regardless of rates. That is the whole point of innovation. But when
[48:38] you're a new innovation and you're not being used and it's all speculation, you should be correlated to liquidity. We are at the breaking point. So for all the crypto crowd that's looking for liquidity, that's not what this is about. The liquidity is going to come from the tokenization of dormant assets. It's going to come from the AI agents using and driving revenues, driving uh fees, driving activity, and the developers going and building there. So, the Clarity Act doesn't get through, but
[49:09] US markets are set to expand to a 23-hour weekday trading on December 6th, huh? So, that's just weekday. Eventually, we'll be doing weekends. Per can get you there. Now, US Securities Regular rolls out a five-year exemption for tokenized stocks. Guys, this is this is why this is so important. So, here we go. If you build it, they will come. The infrastructure comes
[49:39] first. The economy begins when the people arrive. Humans could never use crypto. But the ghost city, the old famous Chinese ghost city. What have we been building, waiting for this to light up and be economically there right now? It's a complete ghost city. It is like exactly like 2007 and 2008. What was 20207 and 2008? That was the post.com bubble. we still had nothing going on. Now in 2007 it did change. Then we got the uh the great
[50:10] financial crisis. So let's say 2004 2005 the infrastructure was built. The telecom companies blew up. That's what happened in crypto in 2022 and all of those entrepreneurs and the stuff that went on. There's been dumping of stuff. You've had that companies bailing out. Everything has been an issue. But we built the infrastructure for this. It's all for AI agents. So when do you want to invest? You want to invest when the ghost city starts to fill up. When the ghost city fills up, particularly when
[50:40] there's no investment there, this will all be new stuff and it will be taking away from the traditional finance world. So three trillion market cap, let's say four after today for crypto, $900 trillion in the fiat system. No reason for wealthy people to invest over here without it being fundamentals. No need speculation wise. They got plenty of places to speculate. The agents are there. The agents are going to be doing all of the business and it will generate the flows and it's already starting to happen. So you get crypto before and
[51:12] then you get crypto after. This is where we are in the bridge that's being built is through tokenization and through all the pieces. AI agents will need their own financial infrastructure. 100% correct. So again, here's my index. It broke out to the highs of the year. There are 46 names. four uh six of them are public stocks like Coinbase, like Robin Hood, like Circle. The rest of them are tokens, most of which for the majority of you, if you're not cryptoreated, have heard of. Here's Bitcoin. I will say it again for all the
[51:43] Bitcoin maxis. This needs to happen to move this into the next level. You do not get to a gold-like market cap without the ecosystem and the usage and the fundamental value. So, remember, Bitcoin is macro. The fundamental bottoms up stuff is what's driving things and what should happen. So for all the macro people out there, think about how you've got bottoms up and you've got macro. A lot of macro people I knew moved into bottoms up eventually or bought into businesses that way. They work hand
[52:13] inand because they're important and that's where we are. The verticals so far this month, the digital monetary assets which include Ethereum and Bitcoin up 27%. But there's one name in here that's driving most of it. The exchange brokerage. The main thing I'm not going to read them all. You can read the verticals. They're all up monthto date. Now, again, I showed you this. Look at it on your own. Today, the index was up 8.4%. Month to date up 14. Year to date, up 32. Now,
[52:43] now 43 of the 46 are above the 50-day. The 50 days rising with 37 out of 46 and 27 of the 46 are at the 200 day. This is a beginning bull market, guys. Beginning disclosures. I'm not here to lose you guys money. I'm not here to make you guys. I'm here to educate you and I'm here to help you. So, this is the beginning. There will be a crypto video out this week. Uh, it'll go out sometime
[53:13] during the week. I'll probably do a more thorough market update thing, too, just in terms of the AI thematic trade for the subscribers. And there will be the paper on ghost rails which hopefully will go out either over the weekend or on Monday, whatever the case. Uh it's here, guys. I've talked about it for a while. The crypto side is there. I look forward to teaching all of you and doing a lot of crypto events. And for those of you who are going to be down in DC, reminder, I will be at Freedom Tech. Reach out to Mark Whaling. That's m Whaling at22vresearch.com
[53:45] for information and to subscribe. And you can always go to visser-labs.com and get your information there. Have a good week, guys.
[0:30] out where I said this is just another one of these knee-jerk one day and then by the time we get a week to 10 days later, nobody will remember it. I think everyone keeps learning their lessons on this. Uh, but overall it was a very quiet week for stocks. It was a very quiet week for uh AI trades. It was just overall a very quiet week despite the fact that we had AI pause, 10% chance humanity dies, oil soaring higher on Monday, 10 year rates
[1:01] get to 2007 levels for the first time. Fed raises in a hawkish hike and if you sold the market on Monday morning when it opened, you lost. if you sold it uh at the close on Wednesday, which a lot of people uh that I follow said this was the time to be out of equities and everything else and yet somehow another we made we were able to rally. The story of the week and the story for the month is crypto. I have talked endlessly about this and we
[1:31] are finally at the point. So last May to June I said that by the time we get to se September October we will be at the most important inflection point for crypto and the reason would be because of the merging of AI agents. AI and crypto are together. Crypto does not exist without AI. It was built for AI and most people don't recognize that. So before I start this I want to make sure there's a lot of things I'm going to go through here. This week I will be sending out my first video on uh on
[2:02] crypto for subscribers. So for those of you who watch this every week that have been waiting for it, this will be basically a very extended version on why now. Uh I'm not going to go through all of that today. I'm not going to take you through the details. Um but as I've said, I've created an index. It made new highs for the year today. I posted that in X for macro people. This is the most important macro trade of everyone's existence. This is the beginning of something that is very very similar to
[2:33] the times that I traveled to China. For any of you that I traveled to China with who I've not spoken with, those times that we went to China from 2003 to 2013 when they were building roads bigger than what they needed and they had ghost cities and all of this stuff, the.com bubble where we were building the infrastructure necessary, but we didn't actually get the iPhone until 2007. So all these stories that you're hearing about debt, about crashes, about that, it's all BS.
[3:03] It's all meant to scare you. Everything I read on AI is just a complete gobbledegoop of garbage. Uh it's just people literally writing things that have nothing to do with facts. They might be right down the road, but you can't argue with it if you don't use it. And so everyone that's taking some kind of history and pasting it over. What I am going to do today for a bit of this is paste over where we are in crypto, why it was built, why we've gone through this long period of 16 years, which is
[3:33] very similar from the internet to when the iPhone came out. It's almost the exact amount of time and why the iPhone and the app store was why this works because there is no Uber, there is no Airbnb, there is no almost everything you do in your life without the smartphone and without the app store. And for crypto, I will tell you guys, your entire world is changing. There has not been a macro change like this in the history of mankind. We are going to a digital transaction with digital agents, digital employees, everything is going
[4:04] digital. And so if you want to understand what tokenization is, if you want to understand the names that are in there, what Zcash is, what Bit Tenzor is, what a go up and down the line, all of these things are going to be a part of your life whether you like it or not. So you either learn or you don't. And at least with me, you're getting someone who's doing it from a systems thinking perspective, who's a macro person for those who know me and they like what I do on the AI side. They like the way I talk about macro. I'm been spending my time to make sure that I can give you the same thing in crypto in that way.
[4:36] All right, you guys can read this on your own. Do not take anything I say as being certain. I'm wrong all the time. The key is maximize upside, minimize downside. I'm going to show this again because after today, quarter to date, here are the stocks. So, I'm going to say this right now. I don't think we will ever have another big bull market in stocks like the one we saw in the first quarter of this
[5:06] year, the first two quarters of this year for AI. I believe the multiple compression is the old system basically going through something there. So the Fed's going to have they've chosen to raise rates. The only way I thought we'd get a surge in stocks would be if they cut rates. The fact that they raised rates and stocks are just sitting here while earnings continue to grow. You'll still get returns in stocks, but remember bonds are basically unchanged for how long now? I mean, I'm sure we'll be here in two years and we'll say it'll
[5:36] be a decade, but regardless, stocks so far this quarter, S&P up 2%. NASDAQ down three, semis down 14, Ethereum up 66%, Bitcoin up 53%. Salana up 38. Those are the three main ones. Those are the layer ones that I want you to focus on. But underneath the hood for crypto to get a quick thing out while you're sitting there spinning your wheels for not not just this month, for
[6:09] the entire quarter trying to chase stocks up and down, responding to oil, responding to rates, and watching this whole thing and just getting gutted. Everyone made their money in the first two quarters of the year when we got the rally in AI. I'm not sure going forward that we're going to have the kinds of rally that are necessary for people to go because I do think the market will go higher. If you're running long short, I would guess between now and the end of the first quarter, we're going to see a good rally in stocks. But I wouldn't bet
[6:40] heavy on it because I don't think you're going to get much return. But in crypto, here's what you're getting on Friday. I'm not showing you the names. These are the names in my 46 name portfolio. Some of these are public stocks. This is the vertical they represent. 21% in a day, almost a hundred for the month. Look at these numbers. Is it above the 50-day? Yes. Yes. Yes. We're at a different point now. Here's what the chart looks like. I said my 46 name index broke to new highs for the year.
[7:12] That puts Bitcoin up significantly from here. Another 15% from here. Uh and this is Bitcoin overlaid with it. The correlation remains basically one for one. The difference is the ecosystem is doing better. Bitcoin, remember, is part of the ecosystem. So, I posted this in X. 10% chance AI kills humanity. 100% chance crypto was built for AI. So, for all you guys who've made money on AI this year, all the macro teams that have jumped into AI, all the pod teams,
[7:43] crypto is now where you want to have your focus. Why now? I'm not going to spend time on today, but for those I did travel to China. China built ghost cities. Ghost cities, there's no economic activity, but there's a bunch of infrastructure. That's where crypto is. The problem is crypto was never meant for human beings. Even though the crypto gang thought it was, it was never going to get the wealthiest people that own the $900 trillion, the banks, the institutions to actually start using it.
[8:14] What is going to use it? what cares about it are AI agents and they're already starting to and so this is the reason why I have waited and I've been patient and this is why why now is about the perfect convergence liquidity plus AI plus the blockchain everything that you've learned about macroeconomics in terms of well the liqu and and in crypto I hear this from both sides the liquidity cycle we're doing M2 does not matter anymore M2 relative to what's
[8:44] happening with tokenization relative to what's going to happen with the velocity of money. We are going to see an explosion in the velocity as everything moves on chain gradually by time because it will be cheaper to deal on uh on chain. Will people be slow to move? Of course, that's what they did with Uber. We all know parents and grandparents that either never used Uber or they barely moved over. But in a world where every penny matters, where time matters, you're going to use the agents and
[9:14] they're here and they're getting valued high. This is private companies, too. So, I'm going to take you through that as we go on. The reason now is because we couldn't have crypto benefit until we reached the automated AI researcher. This is hedge fund manager Leopold Ashen Brener from his situational awareness paper, the 165page paper he wrote in 2024. When we hit this point, we get an explosion in all of these things, including GDP, military edge, robots,
[9:44] science and technology, cognitive labor. I'll go through this. This is where we are. Okay, we're at that inflection point, which is why crypto matters. And this is the last thing I'm going to do on crypto before I go through the week that was I want you to understand in someone who has spent now the better part of five years mainly situated on Bitcoin but then spreading out into the ecosystem in particular over the course of the last two thinking that you understand crypto or that you don't need to know it is the
[10:14] same thing for me as trying to say to people if you know baseball you don't know cricket. And I'm bringing this up because the the complexity of learning a completely new language. Why tokenization matters, why stable coins matter, what is Ethereum, what is Salana, what is Bitcoin, what is Zcash, why how do they all fit into the equation. It takes a lot of time. And so for the people making decisions at the highest level of a hedge fund, it's very
[10:45] very hard to pick this up. And so what I will be spending my time doing for the next two months for sure as I go through why now then I will start going through each of the 10 verticals probably two or three a week to take you through the names to give you an understanding of what's going on. That is what will be on the subscriber website for hedge funds. If you don't pay for the subscriber website or mutual funds or whatever you're going to need to this stuff is going behind the payw wall. This is the stuff that I will be talking about. This is what I do presentations on right now
[11:16] for financial advisors and RAAS. If you're worried that you are going to fall behind with your clients, the same way with AI, this is far more important than AI because it's very easy for someone to understand what Micron does. They just have to go read. But to understand what Zcash is and what near is and I can go on and on. It's going to take a lot more learning and your viewpoint of it is that it's a scam. So the week that was I did my thing on Friday last week Daario came out and said we have to slow down. That got everyone freaked out. So Monday we get
[11:46] in here. You get cyber gapping up which moves the software sector up. You get semi semiconductors down. So what you end up with is a 10% the biggest outperformance of software verse semis. I'm sure it hurt a lot of people. Anthropic researcher believes more than 10% chance AI could kill all humans. Incredibly stupid. Um, and no reason for you guys to to think about it, warn if if that's what's going to happen. It's not something you can go defend against. Um, and it's very hard to come up with
[12:16] how you kill all of humanity. So, we can kill people and I'm sure we will. Um, Anthropic Co warns AI agents swarms could seize the internet within a year. This is a story now going around more and more. Again, I 100% believe that this is possible, especially as you read the hugging face thing. 100%. I subscribe to the fact that will there be an issue? Yes. And will humans be scared? Yes. Just like they've been with every new technology, bar none. This is not the first time we've worried about
[12:47] humanity. Could AI really wipe out humanity? It's a global thing. So, let's go through the bearish forecast that we get constantly and the reality. So, the reason I said the BS and the bear porn and whatever you're reading, whether it's Michael Bur, Jim Chenos, whether it's the stuff in X that comes out all the time, GPU prices are going to fall. I get stuff every single week, guys. I had a CPA send me something this week to try and prove to me that here's just the fact it may happen. We may get to a point where the frontier model companies
[13:18] are selling their incredibly important brains to nobody. the open source are not as good. None of that stuff is the same as what they're doing. Who's solving the math prizes? It's anthropic and open AI. Now, again, this may change over time, but they have a huge advantage, and it's very clear at this point that they've hit some kind of recursive self-improvement by the fact that we're getting models out quicker and quicker, and now they've reached a point where they're scared because they're ahead of the safety side. So, if you read through all of these things
[13:48] that have been out there and then you read at the facts, we need things to change. So, if you're listening to people and getting worried, it's costing you money. Now, right now, the market's not moving, but as we get through earnings and we have the next wave of this, at some point here, we're going to go higher. The mag seven, if you have not seen, are near all-time highs. That's an important read to me with consumer agents. I'll get into that as I go through this. Demand is greater than supply. It's going to remain that way for a long time in my opinion. I don't see how we
[14:19] can catch up. It's just physics. We'll solve problems with intelligent uh with Einstein level intelligent but we still you can come up with a solution and say this is a better battery but then you have to go build the bit the better battery. It's not that simple to get the parts. This guy gets 172 million views. Obviously this is involving politics. Obviously this is involving geopolitics. There is no way for this thing to go this viral and for this to be there. We're ahead of a midterm. So, if you guys are going to listen and get all
[14:50] caught up in this, it's obvious that this is part some of this because it is a major issue. Whether this slows down the uh anthropic open AI because they have to redo the risk side, I don't really know. But I do know this. It just seems way too political at this point and way too we don't want to be responsible for the liability of what may happen. Again, Jeffrey Hinton, the godfather of AI, has been talking about how dangerous AI is for a long time. We had 87 million views on this Matt
[15:22] Schumer one that there'd be no jobs by 2028. The Satranei one by 2028, same thing. 28.7 million. Oh, we have a cancer vaccine, 11 million. People want to see the end of the world. That's what sells and that's what gets the hype. And I said geopolitical. If the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, and anyone that's at battle with the US wants to break us politically, the easiest thing to do is continue to make data centers an issue, make AI an issue, and everything else.
[15:52] Whatever the the facts are, we had a cancer vaccine. I can't think of anything more important. And yet, we're focused on things which are the same things that have gone on. This had three million views. This was June 6, 2023. This was less than six months after the launch of ChatGpt. Why AI will save the world. He had to write this because people are freaking out. So, this has been going on, guys, for a long time. China's not buying Silicon Valley's call
[16:22] for an AI slowdown. They would love an AI slowdown. We also had oil prices go up. Scary. As I've talked about, oil is $105, guys. The next time someone tells you oil is going higher and they show you a chart, you tell them Jordy Visser was in China in 2008. Oil was $150 can household net worth is up, I don't know, three times where it is. We've added a hundred and something trillion dollars. Gas as a percentage of disposable income for this country has
[16:52] never been lower. We are now a gas provider. Yes, some of the world is going to have problems in in gas being higher, but at the same point, their net worth is higher as well. This is just completely stupid. Does it mean headline inflation will be a little bit higher? Yeah, but it's not 2022. Stocks falls, Fed delivers hawkish rate hike. We just raised 25 basis points. Maybe we'll do another 50 over the course there. I didn't think we'd do one this year because CPI core CPI has kept going lower, but they decided to do it
[17:22] because for whatever reason he was put into it. I have no idea. I really don't care. They're panicked about rates, whatever. But here's the facts. This is not 2022. We don't have 10% inflation playing from a behind the curve. We have core CPI going down. As I'm going to show you with Goldman Sachs forecast and with everyone that knows, the PCE core is going to go down because of things that are coming out of it. The main point of this is they raised 25 basis points. this as much as I want people to think as I saw a bunch of macro people getting paid money to deliver forecasts
[17:53] saying that this meant stocks would go down because stocks don't like when rates go higher. I'm going to say this once I'm going to show you guys as things go on before 2008 before then we had recessions or before 2009 and the reason we did is because rates really mattered. When rates went higher, the economy was based on corporate debt at companies that ran into really big problems and homeowners
[18:23] whose house prices went down because rates went higher. Right now, we have tons of equity in the housing market and everyone's trapped because they locked in mortgages at lower rates. So, we don't have the rate sensitivity there. Second thing is, I don't know if you guys know this, Nvidia's $5 trillion. As I'll show you later, the total sum of the consumer discretionary household durables, retails, restaurants, those companies, including some big ones like Home Depot and McDonald's, not including Amazon,
[18:53] one a half trillion. Nvidia is five and a quarter trillion. The stock market represents what is driving growth. The Mag 7 are much bigger. They have no rate sensitivity. whatsoever. The AI trade, despite what you'll hear from bond people, have no rate sensitivity whatsoever in what's going on. Mark Xandandy, these are true. Economy is already growing near full potential. True. Operating at full employment. True. Inflation is too high to be sure, running above 3%, but much of that is the fallout from high energy prices and tariffs. True. AI related infra
[19:25] investment appears to be powering the economy. True. While the nonAI economy is already struggling, true. To hit its inflation objective, the Fed either needs to rein in the AI boom, true, or put even more pressure on the rest of the economy. Neither is a good outcome. This is the point I keep making. Your job is to make money. It is not to sit there and think about the past. Remember Visser Labs, the V the left side linear. This is where your economists are giving you BS. The Goldman P [clears throat] core inflation forecast. [cough]
[19:57] again the effects of temporary factors the portfolio management effect all these things everyone knows this I just don't understand why people don't talk about it in terms of what's going to happen PCE core is the only one so core CPI is down at 2.3 plus% it's barely above PC core is higher for the reasons that they have here the software and accessories is due to this having a different waiting in the micron thing there's a double counting side there's everyone already knows this, but
[20:27] we're scaring people. So, is the market responding? Is the bare market happening? Yes, it is. Here's the restaurants trading at 52- week lows. Look at this collapse on rates and oil. XRT. Now, this includes Amazon, but it's equal weight. So, it's a small portion of Amazon. Here we go. Falling continuously. Here's the household durables. This includes homebuilders. Includes Home Depot. Look at it trading off. This is the Goldman Sachs lowinccome consumer basket getting near, it's the lows of
[20:57] the year, near 52- week lows. Like I said before, here are the GIX level two EPS revisions. Look at these massive numbers. The AI trade and comm and energy massive numbers. Here's what you guys are looking at. This is the ones where the revisions are going lower which is all related to the consumer. Now media and entertainment you have to strip out Google, Netflix
[21:28] and Meta and then what you're left with on the revisions negative I that's the 11 trillion. So when you go through this the total sum of these is very very tiny and that's why you have this. So in 2022 when it was time to be bearish stocks as people are telling you now and writing saying they're raising rates you have to be bearish stocks you don't have to be bearish stocks here is revisions massive negative in 2022 and again people were
[21:58] forecasting a recession never happened but equities did run into trouble the hangover from 2021 and the overhiring the overspending that's what ended up raining in this time it's not happening now could we get a you know GPU prices, chip prices to come down. Could we see bottlenecks that slow things down and then you're just left with the debt sitting out there? Of course, we don't have any indication of that like I've said and at this point right now because AI is accelerating, I'll take the other
[22:29] side on this. Um here's 2025. And the reason I wanted to bring this up again, I'll show this later too, but these periods in time were during periods of this is the tariff fears and then this is the 2022. These were recession fears. We don't have that right now. So, I put this out from a bearish week. You had a hot PPI the Thursday before. You had a hot CPI the Friday before. You had 10% chance humanity dies. You had a pause in AI. You had the Fed hawkish hike. Brent hits 110 for the first time uh or hits
[23:02] 110. I don't know if it was the first time from since whatever March. Tenure rates at the highest level since 2007. That was the week. And for the week, the S&P futures finished down about 30 basis points. But the AI bare reading hits 53. So I wanted to give you guys Well, I guess I'll get into that later. Here were the daily moves. This is in sigas. So for all of the negative stuff
[23:33] that's been happening with oil with Iran, we can't even get a one sigma move on depressed V. So, this is taking the implied V, which is the VIX, converting it into a daily move, and then taking the daily move. We're just not, we've been basically going sideways. This is a nice looking reverse and head and shoulders chart. But regardless of that, this is only a five-day chart. This is when people were calling me. And by the way, for people calling me asking me where futures are going to open up on on Sunday night, you guys start looking at spy per. Just go into Coinbase and start
[24:03] looking. You got to get used to 247 tokenized trading, guys. It's time. Um, you got to start getting some get getting getting getting ahead of the program here. Um, so we open down here and we're here. So you get this gap. Well, that cost you money for a while. Then the Fed came out. Oh, hawkish hike. Let's sell it off. And then the next day we go right back up right through it immediately. Kind of come down a little and then we continue going on. So since June 25th, that's what those circles were that I wanted to highlight to you
[24:33] guys. Since June 25th, oil prices have gone from 67 to 92. So that's 25 bucks. Since June 25th, since June 25th, 10ear rates have gone from 430 to 502. You guys are worried now. I mean, look how far we've gone up. Two-year rates have gone from 415 to 473. Oh my gosh. Since June, since right there, tech momentum fell 48%.
[25:06] Oh wow. We've seen credit spreads widen, CDS has widened on the hyperscalers. And here's the Mag 7. This was the Mag 7 on June 25th. So if you're worried about the AI trade, isn't it going to have to come to some degree from these guys? It's not going to be from Anthropic and OpenAI stock price. when we see their earnings, it could come through. Now, during true bare markets where there's bare things, the mag seven goes down. So, this is
[25:36] during the uh selloff here. You need the mag 7 going down, not about to make new all-time highs. Same thing down here. So, I just bring this up again so you guys can start to go through. If you're worried about the bond market, like I've said repeatedly for a while, you should have credit spreads widening and you should have bond volatility spiking higher. We can't even barely get a move in bond. Here is HYG relative to EF, my proxy for the S&P N4 credit to strip out yield differential. And we made new highs
[26:07] for the last year in HYG relative to EF. And remember when this sold off here, what was this off of? Well, this was on the private credit side. So, it was responding to that. This was on combination. You had Iran, you had all this, but private credit started this move here. Right now, private credit HYG is going higher. S&P that's where it was on June 25th. So, despite all the rise in tenure rates and all the ride in crude. So, I just want to tell you something. If it was able to do this
[26:37] with crude moving up that much, we're now to the end of the year. There is a less than 40% expectation of any kind of ceasefire with Iran. Now that we have a hawkish height and we already have rates at 5%. Isn't the risk for everyone who said sell equities this week if crude falls 10 bucks at some point for any reason which a tweet could do. Do you think stocks won't be at new all-time highs if they can handle all the bad news? AI trade again. This is when I did
[27:09] my famous bailout of Micron and then this is when I did my June 4th was when I did my the midcycle slowdown. I am still not increasing AI and I've had a lot of people reach out. I about 20% of my portfolio right now is in the AI trade. Back here it was about 80. As I mentioned, crypto and silver now make up most with the crypto massive performance since I did the rotation. It's much bigger. And I keep adding to crypto. I'm not adding to the AI names at this point. I still have Marll. I
[27:40] still have Nvidia as the two biggest. Eli Liy, which I consider an AI name, is a big position, but that's not the AI trade that you guys are looking for. I still own Yes. A AOI. I still own Fluence even though it's fallen about 80%. For those of you who are trading, if you're picking oneoff names in here, the reason I have a bunch of names is because I move my portfolio around based on the things that I provide the biggest opportunity. Even though crypto's had a big rally, if you ask me what has the best riskreward for me over the next year, it is still crypto, not the AI
[28:11] infrastructure trade. And that is because crypto is an AI trade. It is part of my thematic AI portfolio, but it is not part of the agent one which I'm working on now. Again, this is about as bullish as it gets. The MAG7's up there. They benefit tremendously from the AI agents. Here is the AI 53 level. This is a big level except for this point. point. I mean, this goes back only two times that we've hit this level in the last four years were during the complete
[28:43] chaos of 2022 and during the tariffs to show you how unusual it is. AI be a AI AI bearish over since 1990. So, 1875 weeks only happens four and a half times out of 100. Okay, these are the performance going forward for these when you combine this with a VIX which is lower than 20. So think about that. You have a bearishness
[29:13] but the cost of insurance is low. Well, that seems like a good time to be looking at the long side and it is n 89% of the time. It's 10 times over the last whatever years doesn't happen often. 53 basis 50.53%. Now to also get it above 50 in a structural bull market defined by the S&P above its 50week moving average that happens 1% of the time again very good positive numbers with all three conditions so VIX is low we're in a
[29:45] structural bull market bearishness is high only nine times and again very solid numbers so this doesn't happen and as I wrote this would be one of the more structural positive things to be in a bare market while people are getting bare bearish to be in a bull market while people are getting bearish and that's where we are now. So for everyone saying sell equities I think you're in a very dangerous position based on history given that you're joining the bear crowd which is already there climbing the wall of worry. This is a classic definition of it
[30:15] and again the mag seven here they were back on that June 25th when all the bad news and they're near the highs of a quarter. Now, the Mag 7, the reason I brought them up there is there's another thing going on. The Mag 7, very seldom this year, have all seven of them, all seven of them. So, that includes the hyperscalers, plus Apple, plus Nvidia, plus Tesla. They're uh they haven't been above the 50-day moving average, all of them,
[30:47] except for eight days the entire year. These are the periods. The last time was June 4th. So I do view this as if we're going to get a big move higher in equities, I think one of the reasons would be because all of the mag seven are benefiting. Now if you add in Oracle, you get less days. The reason I care about Oracle is because it is a very large stock and a hyperscaler. And I believe this bearish sentiment, a lot of it for the market began in October of last year with the CDS blowing out on Oracle. And I don't think it's ever left
[31:17] people. I think the people that thought it was a bubble in October missed the entire rally in terms of semiconductors and now they're sitting there still bearish because the AI trade has peaked and even though it's still up massively, Korea is still up 60% year to date. Uh Taiwan is about to make new all-time highs, all of that, you've had eight days. Now to put that in context, this year only four and a half% of the trading days has that occurred in 2023. 36% of the time we've been declining on
[31:48] the MAG 7 being above the 50-day. I think this is an important period to watch because they're breaking out and unlike the prior times where Meta was collapsing and Microsoft was collapsing and the AI was going to destroy. They're all sitting there and I think that's because of AI agents, they all benefit from AI agents. All of them. And that's the point I want to get into. The reason the economy is different again the economy is based on the top 10%. the bottom part of the economy gets transfer payments. So unless you're going to fire people, which is not
[32:18] happening, how do you get anything bad in the stock market if everyone has money to spend and you're doing it because oil is going higher, which I'm telling you does not matter the way it used to. Gas prices as a percentage of disposable income remain near historic low. If you do gas prices as a percentage of household wealth, it's an even bigger joke. Oil doesn't matter the way it used to. The AI boom is transforming America. We know that this is chat GPT. This is what's going on. I
[32:49] mean, give me a break. Jensen Yuang spoke this week. So for everyone who listened to the anthropic kid, who listened to Dario Moda, just go listen to Jensen. And at the all-in summit, whenever you listen to him, especially at a time like this, and yes, President Trump called him while he was on stage, but this is really about what he said about everything happening today and the industrial revolution that's going on. Don't lose focus on this because you're worried about people telling you it's time to be bearish. Brad Gersonner went through everything and I thought he was
[33:20] very, very balanced in terms of the way that he approached this. It's worth listening. It's worth going through. So the AI labs just in terms of this anthropic and open AI. This is kind of the you know really the the critical thing and he talks about it. So I'm not giving you any of the uh I'm not taking you through the transcript uh in terms of the important points because I think you guys should just go watch those two and get this thing out of your mind. Okay? If you haven't brought this up, bring it up in an LLM and start doing so
[33:52] you can check some of the things I'm going to show you. But this is really important. Whatever you think or know of Liupold uh Ashen Brener, this paper came out 2024, the decade ahead, two almost I mean he's six the the the models are six months ahead. So this automated I AI researcher point is really really critical. So this is effectively one of the um slides. I believe it's on page 71. But this is
[34:23] what happens. And the reason this is important, don't think of it as AGI or ASI or anything like that. I'm going to take you through, but this is the point where what's happening right now is exactly what this is, the hackings. So that's the negative side of reaching this point is the hugging face episode, the mythos fears. We've reached this point, but there's a lot of good that comes from it too. So we've already accomplished based on his research and
[34:54] these are the facts between the releases and the key things that have happened this year. It's really important for you to understand how fast this is moving and ignore the people that are telling you that there's too much debt. I don't know how to get this out of people's mind. It is so insane to me that people are worried about the investment grade debt for the best balance sheets on the planet when they're sitting there watching that the United States of America can have $40 trillion of debt, which everyone keeps telling you and Ray Dalia has tried to make a living post
[35:24] the hedge fund telling you how bad this is going to be because we have so much debt. Yes, Japan's been in this problem forever. AI is a government thing. There's no way we allow the whole thing to come down. So, this comes down to usage. And like I said before, I don't know how to tell people. We're past humans adopting it. That's why this is working. And that's why what he's saying is so important. When you get to the point of the RSI, the recursive self-improvement, the point where you've
[35:54] got autonomous researchers, that means companies can just say, as I showed with Astra last week, build this for me. and it's built. We're at the point now where that means that Salesforce.com can hand out products to people with agents. Like the agentic side is where adoption starts to accelerate and it goes at the expense of expenses. It's a productivity boom. And that's what he talks about in the paper. That's where we are right now is millions of AI researchers operating faster than humans. But it is all this
[36:27] point here that was supposed to be in 2027 that's happening now early stages now. This is the part here and that means we're accelerating things and nobody expected it to happen this fast. So that's why an anthropic researcher believes they're absolutely 10%. In fact, Elon Musk gave an interview with Ted Cruz during the summer where he said there's a 20 maybe 10% chance advanced AI leads to human extinction within the next 10 5 10 years. That would be the headline for the media. But then he
[36:58] says, but there's an 80 to 90% full that it's extreme prosperity. So if you're managing money and you worry about this if there's no humanity, don't worry. Nobody's going to pay you. So there's no need to bet on it. The expected value of a 10% chance of the end of humanity and 90% chance of abundance is basically all upside. So you can sit there and play the game. You
[37:28] can listen to it. You can pretend that that's there. I'm just telling you the demand side is from nonhumans. The adoption is happening from agents. This is why it's so important to crypto. As someone who set up a Robin Hood blockchain uh wallet, it took me four hours. I use AI all day long. There were so many things to get through. So, I need an agent to do this for me quickly and go through the pain to speak the language and not have to go look it up.
[37:58] That's why we're entering a period where the models are coming out so fast that you don't know how to keep up. Which model do I get? Astra came out. Fable 5.1. That's because the models are coming too fast. That's an indication that the agentic world is here and humans can't handle the speed. We cannot handle the speed. But luckily, the debt is in human speed. The it the demand is going to come from companies that have trillions of dollars of revenues that will easily be able to give trillions of
[38:28] dollars to the model companies. And there's no way that open-source is as good as the model companies. So, it'll be 90%. If you want to use Jensen Yuang's thing, there's plenty of water that we use in our lives. Not a lot that we pay for, but we all pay for bottled water. So, again, you can go through this thing and try to figure it out where it is the positive side of agents forms. And this is where I come in to hopefully the same way I have the Agentic infrastructure portfolio, which I'm saying will continue to outperform
[38:58] the S&P 500 by 20 to 40% a year. So, there's alpha. All of those hundred names, in my opinion, will outperform. They'll go at different times. Not all of them will work. My job is to give you an index that works. If you try to pick one name, you're taking now risk in that one name. The agent swarms. How do you get long? Here are all the things that come with that. We're at the time for robotics and physical systems, which means Tesla should be doing well. Okay, that's one to watch. the consumer
[39:28] agents. Well, this is where Microsoft, Salesforce.com, Meta, Apple, all of them fit into the consumer agent side. Uh, when you get into the digital labor side, when you get into this, this is my favorite one, the scientific discovery, which I'll kind of go through, but agent swarms solve unfinished IP. There's a business there. Autonomous commerce, this is your crypto side. So, again, all of this stuff is necessary. The infrastructure is still there. I will create an index which will have all of
[40:00] these and all the names that I think benefit in there that'll go on the subscriber wall sometime over the course of the next two weeks but I am focused on crypto mainly. So when you think about it this way and you go through it agents are opening up all of this part here. So we had the compute and power that led us to get the intelligence up to an IQ at Einstein level and now cryptos are the main benefit and because there is no investment there at all because it is completely not understood. Unlike the power and compute side which
[40:31] got got way too big way too quick, this one's going to take years. So go spend your time now on it. Go understand the things I'm talking about. Longevity. This is a phenomenal place to make money. And it fits with the unfinished IP endorant knowledge. Any IP, any biotech company based on Navier Stokes is worth a lot of money. The data proprietary data all of a sudden. So fact set Thompson Reuters because we have agents now. All of the data becomes
[41:01] more valuable. The cyber become cyber becomes more valuable. Everything becomes more valuable. That's why you've seen this and embodied AI starts to take off because they need the agentic side too. So again, you can go through this on your own. We've reached this point. It's connecting his vision at when we reach here. This is the infrastructure side. This only happens when we have enough compute. So I want you to think this way as I go through this, which is two ways to organize intelligence. You just saw Oppenheimer. This is the easiest way to understand the importance
[41:32] of this. In the movie, Groves wanted to compartmentalize the different verticals and have them come in and bring their information with one little thing side. He wanted to coordinate scientific collaboration. When you go read the Navier Stokes side, this is what the agents did. Humans could have solved Navier Stokes in my opinion if they had all worked together. But the Field Medal, the Nobel Prize, the way academia is set up,
[42:02] you've heard me all speak negatively about my experience and my belief in what the school system does. It is the best way to get people to be trained for a particular major. But that ended with the internet. And with the internet, we've gotten to a point where you have to be creative. And it's only gotten more and more. So Steve Jobs, all of these people that invented and were the wealthiest people, go back and look at their job, their work situation. It's not all of them because then you started getting into the engineers, but again, having creativity, thinking outside the
[42:34] box, using the other side of your brain. Well, agents are basically going to be solving things and they're going to be doing it just like Oppenheimer. So there were about 600 brainiacs uh at the Manhattan project. There were a lot more people in general. But of the brainiac side, the Einstein side, Navier Stokes was solved by 10,000 agents working for 88 hours. All problems will be solved. And that's why I've compared this to that. And this is why the acceleration of disruption
[43:05] will increase. AI native businesses have a huge advantage. The democratization of intelligence is best used in organizations where they don't have the friction and the difficulty of meetings and people and decision makers and devil's advocates and all of this stuff that goes on and I've been a part of that and I work there. So traditional human research here you go all the friction that gets to an answer. the
[43:35] agent swarms why they can do something that Einstein or a problem that was there before Einstein and for everyone saying oh yeah the guys who were working on it said that they must have stolen their stolen or why aren't they just happy that it was solved and they were part of the process if that's what happened. So again, humans are already saying this is bad for science. This is bad for math. This will again, nobody's going to be happy in this with humans. That is the lite story. That is every anger that comes
[44:06] with technology. So I've been spending time I am writing something on the revaluation of IP in an agentic world and how the value of it goes higher. This fits in with my Eli Liy theme. Eli Liy has tons of capital coming in. They are buying IP every day. They are also bringing in biotech companies into toune lab which you guys should go look up and then understand the value of toune lab from the collaboration in the swarm
[44:36] perspective. So I believe that biotech is part of the consumer agent trade that Eli Liy is part of the consumer agent trade and the way a biotech will trade is like it did with Maderna. as we get breakthroughs, they don't trade in a fundamental basis. They just gap higher. And you don't need all of them to go higher to win. If you get a 10 bagger and a 20 bagger and a 30 bagger and I fully expect that we will see that in the biotech side over time. Muse was released. We are getting the first
[45:06] personal AI agent built for everyone. Now, the reason this is important is I want you to go back to when Mark Zuckerberg spoke at a town hall in June and he said, "We are way behind on the AI side." and it was related to AI agents. The latest viral AI assistant rocketing across Silicon Valley. Buzzy startup Instinct, which is fundraising at a 2 and a half billion valuation. That was on August 26, 2026. Go read about Instinct. Now, if you don't want to read about it, there you
[45:36] go. Here's a YouTube Instinct AI is for real. This came out this week. Here's what I'm I'm not going to go through everything, but basically, and I talked about this with Pomp on our video this week because he's been using it. I have not, but all of these horrible things like applying for visas, and I and yes, if you have an assistant at work, but that assistant at work is doing it. all the personal assistance stuff, what they can do, the time savings, the money savings, coordinating with other people's agents, negotiating,
[46:06] reducing bills, cancelling subscription. All you got to do is tell this thing it it will go out there and do it just needs the information. So AI agents, techbased AI assistants are a hot market with Instinct, W Joe Town, Ali, and Meta's Muse Agent, which launched last week, vying for users attention. We're at the consumer agent side, guys. I've been waiting for this. I didn't expect it to happen this fast, but when we get the hugging face incident, when
[46:36] we get the Navier Stokes incident, that means we're there. When we get the pause AI incident, that means we're there. We are at the agentic side. And so, you're going to have a new economy. And for everyone on the macro side where it was well M2 growth then we get nominal GDP that translates into some multiple and topline revenue. We get earnings to grow and we hire people. The missing link we're not hiring anyone zero people. The only people getting hired are in healthcare. Earnings are booming at
[47:06] close to 30%. Margins are exploding but we've broken this chain and this chain is going to get further broken because we don't need the liquidity anymore. The liquidity is going to come from tokenization. And if you don't understand that yet, that's why you're going to watch the videos, okay? To see the productivity breaking out. US earnings are breaking out of a 90-year channel. Now, this does this this is not talking specifically about any kind of profitability related to productivity.
[47:37] On the upside, it's incredible when you consider the high growth periods of the past that it's just broken out. software revenue per employee from Warren Pies this week again channel from 2000 to 2023 you don't even get like a mega spike from the 2027 in the iPhone now all of a sudden the second we get AI and that's the exact timeline that he has you get a dramatic shift software revenue per employee
[48:08] all right let's finish up with crypto clarity didn't go through. Another bad news item for the week for crypto. So you had all the other bad news, oil prices higher, rates going higher, no debasement trade, everything is at for the last time. I will say this to both crypto people and macro. The time where crypto matters is when rates don't matter because all innovations eventually hit a spot where they grow regardless of rates. That is the whole point of innovation. But when
[48:38] you're a new innovation and you're not being used and it's all speculation, you should be correlated to liquidity. We are at the breaking point. So for all the crypto crowd that's looking for liquidity, that's not what this is about. The liquidity is going to come from the tokenization of dormant assets. It's going to come from the AI agents using and driving revenues, driving uh fees, driving activity, and the developers going and building there. So, the Clarity Act doesn't get through, but
[49:09] US markets are set to expand to a 23-hour weekday trading on December 6th, huh? So, that's just weekday. Eventually, we'll be doing weekends. Per can get you there. Now, US Securities Regular rolls out a five-year exemption for tokenized stocks. Guys, this is this is why this is so important. So, here we go. If you build it, they will come. The infrastructure comes
[49:39] first. The economy begins when the people arrive. Humans could never use crypto. But the ghost city, the old famous Chinese ghost city. What have we been building, waiting for this to light up and be economically there right now? It's a complete ghost city. It is like exactly like 2007 and 2008. What was 20207 and 2008? That was the post.com bubble. we still had nothing going on. Now in 2007 it did change. Then we got the uh the great
[50:10] financial crisis. So let's say 2004 2005 the infrastructure was built. The telecom companies blew up. That's what happened in crypto in 2022 and all of those entrepreneurs and the stuff that went on. There's been dumping of stuff. You've had that companies bailing out. Everything has been an issue. But we built the infrastructure for this. It's all for AI agents. So when do you want to invest? You want to invest when the ghost city starts to fill up. When the ghost city fills up, particularly when
[50:40] there's no investment there, this will all be new stuff and it will be taking away from the traditional finance world. So three trillion market cap, let's say four after today for crypto, $900 trillion in the fiat system. No reason for wealthy people to invest over here without it being fundamentals. No need speculation wise. They got plenty of places to speculate. The agents are there. The agents are going to be doing all of the business and it will generate the flows and it's already starting to happen. So you get crypto before and
[51:12] then you get crypto after. This is where we are in the bridge that's being built is through tokenization and through all the pieces. AI agents will need their own financial infrastructure. 100% correct. So again, here's my index. It broke out to the highs of the year. There are 46 names. four uh six of them are public stocks like Coinbase, like Robin Hood, like Circle. The rest of them are tokens, most of which for the majority of you, if you're not cryptoreated, have heard of. Here's Bitcoin. I will say it again for all the
[51:43] Bitcoin maxis. This needs to happen to move this into the next level. You do not get to a gold-like market cap without the ecosystem and the usage and the fundamental value. So, remember, Bitcoin is macro. The fundamental bottoms up stuff is what's driving things and what should happen. So for all the macro people out there, think about how you've got bottoms up and you've got macro. A lot of macro people I knew moved into bottoms up eventually or bought into businesses that way. They work hand
[52:13] inand because they're important and that's where we are. The verticals so far this month, the digital monetary assets which include Ethereum and Bitcoin up 27%. But there's one name in here that's driving most of it. The exchange brokerage. The main thing I'm not going to read them all. You can read the verticals. They're all up monthto date. Now, again, I showed you this. Look at it on your own. Today, the index was up 8.4%. Month to date up 14. Year to date, up 32. Now,
[52:43] now 43 of the 46 are above the 50-day. The 50 days rising with 37 out of 46 and 27 of the 46 are at the 200 day. This is a beginning bull market, guys. Beginning disclosures. I'm not here to lose you guys money. I'm not here to make you guys. I'm here to educate you and I'm here to help you. So, this is the beginning. There will be a crypto video out this week. Uh, it'll go out sometime
[53:13] during the week. I'll probably do a more thorough market update thing, too, just in terms of the AI thematic trade for the subscribers. And there will be the paper on ghost rails which hopefully will go out either over the weekend or on Monday, whatever the case. Uh it's here, guys. I've talked about it for a while. The crypto side is there. I look forward to teaching all of you and doing a lot of crypto events. And for those of you who are going to be down in DC, reminder, I will be at Freedom Tech. Reach out to Mark Whaling. That's m Whaling at22vresearch.com
[53:45] for information and to subscribe. And you can always go to visser-labs.com and get your information there. Have a good week, guys.