War, AI, and Bitcoin In Deep Value

[0:01] Yo, welcome back to another episode of
[0:05] the Jack Mallers Show. I am your host
[0:08] Jack and you are listening to yet
[0:10] another edition of Mailbag Monday. All
[0:14] signal, no noise, and no ads. Episode
[0:17] 107.
[0:20] Wow. Happy Monday, ladies and gentlemen.
[0:23] Without further ado, let's get this bad
[0:25] boy timestamped. I'm talking to you all
[0:27] at a Bitcoin price of $69,420.
[0:34] Nah, I'm just kidding. Close though,
[0:36] $69,460.
[0:40] Putting Bitcoin's market cap at 1.39
[0:42] trillion USD.
[0:46] That still is 45%
[0:48] below our established all-time high of
[0:51] $126,160
[0:54] set on October 6, 2025, 147 days from
[0:58] today.
[1:00] For those of you that keep track of time
[1:02] and block height,
[1:03] I salute you. You know I do. You know I
[1:06] do. You know I do.
[1:09] The last Bitcoin block mined since I hit
[1:11] stream was Bitcoin block height 939,059.
[1:17] All right, boys and girls, here's the
[1:19] deal.
[1:20] Uh Daddy Jack,
[1:22] >> [laughter]
[1:23] >> come on, get your head out of the
[1:24] gutter.
[1:25] Uh
[1:26] Jack, I referencing myself, have
[1:29] something to be at at 6:30. I'm in
[1:31] Chicago, it's 5:03 right now.
[1:34] These things can go 2 hours uh if I'm
[1:36] really feeling it, which I usually am.
[1:38] Um so, this one's going to have to be
[1:40] shorter, which is kind of unfortunate,
[1:42] but I'll tell you why it's not that big
[1:43] of a deal. All of the Iran stuff, all
[1:46] that's going on, keeps updating in real
[1:48] time. Today, the markets yeah, the oil
[1:51] market closed up uh and now oil's back
[1:55] down, bonds are flying all over the
[1:57] place, the stock market closed green. I
[1:59] mean, I'm getting real time You know how
[2:01] many times I updated my slides in the
[2:03] last 10 minutes? Every time I refresh
[2:05] the internet, you're getting new
[2:07] information, new market signals. So, in
[2:10] the beginning, I was like, you know
[2:11] what? I got to move my 6:30. I really
[2:13] cannot afford to make this episode
[2:15] short. And then I realized, it's really
[2:18] going to be next week once markets calm
[2:19] down and we get some more information,
[2:22] where we're going to be able to really
[2:23] dig in deep. Right now, I'm just going
[2:25] to tie together all that's going on and
[2:28] why I think it matters and the higher
[2:30] level story that's relevant to us
[2:32] Bitcoiners. And then we're going to
[2:34] revisit everything next week once we get
[2:36] a little bit more information, a little
[2:41] bit more signal. So,
[2:44] without further ado, the title of this
[2:47] is war, AI, and deep value. Why the
[2:51] system is more fragile than you think.
[2:54] So, today we're going to talk about
[2:55] Iran, we're going to talk about oil,
[2:56] we're going to talk about the fragility
[2:58] of everything, a little bit of AI, and
[3:00] the deep value is Bitcoin. Um I continue
[3:04] to think this is the time to turn on
[3:07] those DCAs.
[3:09] I think it's critically important. And
[3:11] I'm also going to try and fly through
[3:13] this stuff cuz the star of today's show,
[3:15] it might actually be Strike. Strike has
[3:18] probably the biggest week in our history
[3:21] this week, tremendously exciting, and I
[3:24] need some time to walk you guys through
[3:26] that. All right, let's get into it. Um
[3:29] first and foremost,
[3:30] uh
[3:31] the regime is dead, okay? So, for those
[3:34] that have been living under a rock,
[3:36] um I hate to be the one to break the
[3:38] news to you, but the United States i- is
[3:42] in war or has declared war, but even
[3:45] that I'm not entirely sure because you
[3:46] need Congress to go to war.
[3:49] But do you? Because I thought post-9/11
[3:52] the president has discrepancy
[3:56] to start war, but not declare it. See,
[3:58] this is the thing. I'm not a politics
[4:01] guy. I I vote orange. I'm not left,
[4:04] right, blue, red, up, down, blah, blah.
[4:06] You guys have heard me say this a
[4:07] million times. That's just not who I am.
[4:10] It's not my expertise, okay? So, take
[4:12] this all with a grain of salt.
[4:14] I don't know if we're officially in war
[4:17] because I think Congress needs to
[4:19] declare war. Did we bomb Iran? Yes. Did
[4:23] we terminate and kill the regime? Yes.
[4:28] And so, this screenshot um
[4:31] By the way, as we'll see in a second,
[4:32] this is US and Israel. So, US and Israel
[4:35] launched major combat operations in
[4:37] Iran. This post was from the White
[4:41] House, the White House.
[4:43] Uh and in uh Trump's screenshotted Truth
[4:47] Social post, uh it's one of the most
[4:49] evil people in history is dead. This is
[4:52] not only justice for the people of Iran,
[4:54] but for all great Americans and those
[4:56] people from many countries throughout
[4:58] the world, okay?
[5:00] So, we go on. Now, the question is why
[5:04] why now? What's going on geopolitically?
[5:08] And let me just say the official stance
[5:12] of the Jack Mallers Show is I'm not sure
[5:15] we know.
[5:16] Okay? We're going to take a look at the
[5:18] oil markets, the gold markets. The oil
[5:20] markets, the gold markets led this.
[5:21] Bitcoin as the smoke alarm led this. It
[5:24] sold off hard over the weekend. It
[5:26] rallied over 5% today, which was very,
[5:29] very interesting. So, markets were all
[5:32] over this. Free markets are the best
[5:35] it's the best
[5:38] capitalistic system to to incentivize
[5:41] progress we've ever seen. Free markets
[5:43] are the best. They're the best. And so,
[5:46] all you got to do is look at markets to
[5:47] look at the truth. So, I think I have a
[5:49] good idea, but I'm not entirely sure.
[5:51] Now, this was posted like an hour ago.
[5:54] So, this is Marco Rubio
[5:57] of the US government. Um I want you guys
[5:59] to listen to this cuz this is the first
[6:01] time we've heard from the US government
[6:04] why now and what's going on.
[6:08] Um I was a little shocked when I heard
[6:11] this, but let's listen.
[6:14] Second question that we've been asked
[6:15] is, why now? Well, there's two reasons
[6:17] why now. The first is it was abundantly
[6:19] clear that if Iran came under attack by
[6:22] anyone, the United States or Israel or
[6:24] anyone, they were going to respond and
[6:26] respond against the United States. The
[6:27] orders had been delegated down to the
[6:30] field commanders. It was automatic and
[6:32] in fact it appeared to be true because
[6:33] in fact the within an hour of of the
[6:36] initial attack on the on the leadership
[6:38] compound, the missile forces in the
[6:41] south and in the north for that matter
[6:43] had already been activated to launch. In
[6:45] fact, the those had already been
[6:46] pre-positioned. The third is the
[6:48] assessment that was made that if we
[6:50] stood and waited for that attack to come
[6:52] first before we hit them, we would
[6:55] suffer much higher casualties. And so,
[6:57] the president made the very wise
[6:59] decision. He we knew that there was
[7:00] going to be an Israeli action. We knew
[7:02] that that would precipitate an attack
[7:04] against American forces. And we knew
[7:06] that if we didn't preemptively go after
[7:07] them before they launched those attacks,
[7:09] we would suffer higher casualties and
[7:11] perhaps even higher those killed. And
[7:14] then we would all be here answering
[7:15] questions about why we knew that and
[7:16] didn't act.
[7:19] Interesting. So, my interpretation after
[7:21] listening to that, and again, this is
[7:22] hot off the press. That was just live
[7:24] TV.
[7:26] Um
[7:27] I
[7:28] I guess
[7:30] it was known that if
[7:32] the West
[7:34] which all leads back to the US, right?
[7:36] Like the European defense is the West is
[7:39] excuse me is America. Israeli defense
[7:42] obviously is America. And so, if anyone
[7:45] hit Iran, it was known information that
[7:48] Iran would hit
[7:50] the United States, I guess, or retaliate
[7:53] to the United States.
[7:55] And then, it was known that Israel was
[7:58] going to hit Iran. So, then, by proxy,
[8:00] it meant Iran was going to attack the
[8:03] United States. So, Trump said, "Screw
[8:06] that. If we're going to get attacked, we
[8:08] might as well
[8:10] the best defense is offense." That's my
[8:13] interpretation of that, which is Again,
[8:15] this is all so fresh and so new and so
[8:18] classic. I mean, politics is just a
[8:20] joke, an utter and complete joke. I
[8:23] mean, I'm sorry. I I hate to be that
[8:26] guy, but if you think you're going to
[8:28] change the world by putting the right
[8:30] person in office, I mean, who are you
[8:33] kidding?
[8:35] So, I mean, can we be serious?
[8:39] No, you're going to change the world
[8:40] through open-source software, through
[8:42] engineering, through distributed
[8:44] systems, through hard money, through
[8:46] health, through truth,
[8:48] through morals, through principles,
[8:50] through family.
[8:53] That's my message on my platforms.
[8:56] We're getting married. We're having
[8:58] kids. We're stacking sats. We're
[8:59] building software.
[9:02] These guys I mean, doesn't matter who
[9:04] you put in office. What are they talking
[9:06] about?
[9:08] So, if someone hurt Iran, Iran would
[9:10] hurt us. So, the fact that someone was
[9:12] going to hurt Iran by proxy meant Iran
[9:14] was going to attack us. So, instead of
[9:16] them attacking us, we just [ __ ] them
[9:17] up. What the
[9:19] All right. So, anyways, why now? Why
[9:22] Operation Midnight Hammer?
[9:24] I get I
[9:26] I don't know, okay? And I'm Again, I'm
[9:28] not a politician. I don't know the
[9:30] answer.
[9:32] Here's another angle that's very
[9:33] important, okay? This is not just a
[9:36] Middle East story. Now, whether this is
[9:38] the motivation, whether this is the
[9:39] driver, again, I don't know. I think
[9:42] next week's show is going to have a lot
[9:44] more depth. I'm going to be able to do a
[9:46] lot more research. It's coming off hot
[9:49] off the press. It's hotter than a GG
[9:52] sauna right now, okay?
[9:55] But, for you guys to know, this is very
[9:58] important information, China buys 90% of
[10:01] Iran's oil. Okay? So, this is not just a
[10:04] Middle East story. This is always, at
[10:05] the end of the day, if you zoom out far
[10:07] enough, you know, on Google Maps where
[10:09] you just hit zoom out, zoom out, zoom
[10:10] out, zoom out, zoom out until you're at
[10:11] the peak of the zoom out, bird's-eye
[10:13] view to the to the max.
[10:16] That's what it's it's always US and
[10:18] China. Always, always, always US and
[10:21] China. Okay? And so, the US-China aspect
[10:24] of this is think about it, guys. What
[10:26] was Venezuela? Venezuela was selling
[10:29] China oil at a discount. What was Iran?
[10:32] Iran was selling China oil at a
[10:35] discount. Who was involved in Venezuela?
[10:38] Who had boots in the ground in
[10:40] Venezuela? There were three primary
[10:42] countries. We went over this. Who was
[10:44] entering the United States hemisphere,
[10:48] according to the US government, that's
[10:50] what they used. Get out of our
[10:51] hemisphere. Who was in the United States
[10:54] hemisphere via Venezuela? There were
[10:56] three countries. Can you take a wild
[10:58] guess? It was
[11:02] Iran, China, and Russia. Okay? And so,
[11:07] keep in mind the oil story here, cuz
[11:10] we're going to talk about the oil market
[11:11] right now. Now,
[11:14] there is the Strait of Hormuz, okay?
[11:17] Where a lot of oil trade, oil settlement
[11:20] goes down.
[11:22] Now, there were rumors that I still I I
[11:25] tried to get accurately what was as of
[11:29] right this second. Because over the
[11:31] weekend, there were rumors that it was
[11:33] going to close because of the conflict,
[11:36] it was going to close.
[11:39] Brent crude started trading up 10%. Now
[11:42] guys, keep in mind,
[11:44] the reason oil matters so much is
[11:46] because energy prices are the most
[11:50] sensitive to inflation.
[11:52] You can do a lot to try and tame
[11:54] consumer consumer inflation. Okay? What
[11:58] do I mean by this? Well, inflation
[12:00] saying that inflation is one number is
[12:02] so idiotic, it's so dumb, it's so
[12:04] Keynesian. They're trying to literally
[12:08] hypnotize the public into thinking
[12:10] moronic things. Inflation can't possibly
[12:13] be one thing. I'll tell you your
[12:15] inflation rate if you tell me what you
[12:17] want in your life. If you want to live
[12:20] in your parents' basement, only consume
[12:22] Netflix and Caesar salad for the rest of
[12:24] your life, your inflation is effectively
[12:26] zero. I can always cut leaves off a tree
[12:29] and put ranch on it and serve it to you
[12:31] for [ __ ] lunch, and you can get a
[12:33] Netflix subscription, and you'll never
[12:35] pay rent, and inflation is zero. Don't
[12:38] worry about monetary policy, don't worry
[12:40] about saving hard money, don't worry
[12:42] about anything because your quality of
[12:43] life is dog [ __ ] okay? If you want to
[12:47] have a nice house with a yard and four
[12:50] kids and a wife, and you want a two-car
[12:52] garage that guzzles a bunch of oil,
[12:55] well, your inflation rate actually isn't
[12:57] the 2% the government's trying to
[12:58] convince you. It's probably 5% actually.
[13:00] Post-COVID, it's probably 10%, and it
[13:02] depends. Do you want to live in one of
[13:04] these urban cities that's declining in
[13:06] murder rates all over the place like my
[13:08] city, like Chicago, or do you want to
[13:10] live in Miami, or do you want to live in
[13:12] Texas, or do you want to live in
[13:14] Manhattan? Then your inflation rate's
[13:16] probably 20%, 30%, 40%. So, when anyone
[13:19] tells you, "Oh, this is the inflation
[13:21] rate," it depends. What type of life do
[13:23] you want? If you want a good
[13:24] high-quality life, the inflation rate is
[13:27] double-digit percentages, okay? Now,
[13:30] when I say you can try and control
[13:32] consumer inflation, what what what do we
[13:35] know, guys? Energy is the nucleus of a
[13:39] Energy is the currency of the universe.
[13:42] The currency of the universe. You need
[13:44] to travel.
[13:46] You need to have electricity, you need
[13:48] to have lights, you need to communicate.
[13:50] Everything You need energy. That's the
[13:52] The story of humanity is commercializing
[13:55] energy from the sun, okay? The latest
[13:57] iteration of that for us is fossil
[13:59] fuels, okay? And so, the price of oil is
[14:02] extremely important. It's the most
[14:04] important commodity price when you think
[14:07] about inflation.
[14:08] So, if oil gaps up 10% over the weekend
[14:12] because of combat and a conflict in the
[14:14] Middle East, that's a huge huge huge
[14:18] deal. And this tweet from Luke is super
[14:20] super interesting. In the red, you see
[14:23] the crude prices trending up. In the
[14:26] blue, you see the UST yields trending
[14:28] down. Interesting. Now, the question is
[14:32] which one's going to bite? We'll get
[14:35] back to that in a second.
[14:37] So, this morning, after
[14:40] uh crude is up, futures are up 10% over
[14:44] the weekend, we're seeing the conflict
[14:45] go down. CME says that circuit breakers
[14:49] hit on open this morning. And so, oil
[14:52] markets are going bananas now.
[14:56] Put yourself in this. Oil markets are
[14:58] going bananas, gold is going up, and
[15:01] risk is entirely off. Bitcoin is
[15:03] bleeding. Everyone's calling for below
[15:05] 60K, below 60K, below 60K.
[15:08] >> [snorts]
[15:09] >> And by the way, like it it was really it
[15:12] was really interesting because markets
[15:15] seem to
[15:16] it was weird. Markets seem to know what
[15:18] was going on before
[15:21] we all did, the public.
[15:23] And even the headlines seem to know. So,
[15:26] I want you guys to look at this this
[15:28] tweet on the left. I'm going to read it
[15:30] out loud.
[15:32] There's a flurry of reports over the
[15:34] last 72 hours from the US media. New
[15:37] York Times, Wash Washington
[15:40] What is Wall Street Journal, excuse me.
[15:42] Wall Street Journal, Washington Post,
[15:44] Axios, CBS, etc. Raising questions on US
[15:48] readiness for major war with Iran.
[15:51] There's too much for it to be a
[15:52] coincidence. Either the White House is
[15:54] trying to signal to its allies that
[15:56] they're taking a deal or the Pentagon is
[15:59] trying to tie Trump's hands to make sure
[16:01] they're not blamed for the results of
[16:02] the war.
[16:04] And then there's a Washington Post
[16:05] article, Trump's top general foresees
[16:07] acute risks in an attack on Iran.
[16:11] And so, I guess here's the the thing I
[16:14] want to convey to you guys and sorry if
[16:15] I'm being repetitive, but
[16:17] we just don't really know what's going
[16:19] on yet.
[16:21] Because leading up to what ended up
[16:25] being a strike on Iran,
[16:27] all of US media was saying don't do it,
[16:32] don't do it. There's a lot of risk. Here
[16:35] Let me read these headlines to you guys.
[16:36] Trump's top general warns of Iran strike
[16:38] risks. Trump growing frustrated with
[16:41] limits of Iran military options. Missed
[16:44] funerals and blocked toilets, Iran
[16:46] deployment takes a toll on US sailors.
[16:48] Trump's top general foresees acute risks
[16:51] in an attack on Iran.
[16:53] This is not a coincidence. This is not a
[16:55] mistake. These are not all independent
[16:57] journalists arriving at the same
[16:58] conclusions at the same time right
[17:00] before an event.
[17:02] As the tweet said, this is one of two
[17:04] things. This is the White House trying
[17:06] to signal to its allies, which it sounds
[17:08] like was Israel according to Marco
[17:10] Rubio, like hey, don't do this.
[17:14] Or it was the Pentagon trying to signal
[17:17] to the world like this isn't our
[17:20] decision?
[17:21] Again, really interesting stuff. Really
[17:24] interesting stuff. But on the back of
[17:26] these headlines and obviously the free
[17:29] market is the most efficient. So someone
[17:31] knew something. Gold started to move.
[17:33] Oil started to move. Was really really
[17:35] interesting, guys. Okay? And I love this
[17:38] tweet from from Luke.
[17:39] Uh in war, truth is the first casualty.
[17:43] Okay? So in war, one thing I can
[17:45] guarantee you is we're going to get fed
[17:47] a bunch of [ __ ] a bunch of lies, a
[17:49] bunch of trash. Don't trust a
[17:51] politician. Don't trust a headline you
[17:54] read. Hopefully this show can serve you
[17:56] guys a little bit of truth, a little bit
[17:58] of substance. I'm always going to keep
[18:00] it as real, as authentic, as honest as I
[18:04] can as I possibly can to my utmost
[18:07] being, to the neurons I'm made up of. I
[18:09] always will You guys always hold me
[18:11] accountable to that. Okay? But the first
[18:14] casualty in war is truth.
[18:17] The second casualty, bonds.
[18:20] Because
[18:22] one, it was really weird. Okay, so
[18:24] anyways,
[18:26] I So I'm looking at markets and I'm
[18:29] seeing gold up, oil up, dollar up. And
[18:33] that is risk off. Bitcoin was getting
[18:36] smoked. And I'm thinking the S&P 500 is
[18:39] going to get hammered and maybe this is
[18:41] the time the stock market gets its
[18:43] correction, all the leverage combined
[18:46] with all the AI stuff is going to wipe
[18:47] everybody out. They're going to have to
[18:49] take out the money printer. It was
[18:51] really interesting. And then all of a
[18:53] sudden,
[18:54] the S&P 500 closed green. Risk came back
[18:58] on. Bitcoin closed up 5%.
[19:01] So I had wrote in the tweet I tweeted
[19:04] out uh today promoting the show, I said,
[19:07] on the Monday of
[19:09] war in Iran, the S&P 500 closing green
[19:14] is maybe one of the scariest things in
[19:15] financial markets.
[19:17] It was so bizarre.
[19:20] So, war in Iran, oil hit circuit
[19:23] breakers, bonds are selling off,
[19:26] but by noon, by lunch, the stock market
[19:30] had rebounded and erased everything that
[19:33] happened over the weekend.
[19:35] It was super interesting to me.
[19:37] It was really, really interesting.
[19:39] So, anyways,
[19:41] um
[19:43] I found it bizarre.
[19:45] Uh we'll get into the bond price action
[19:47] in a second, but the I I I don't know. I
[19:50] mean, I guess
[19:52] that's where my head's at in regards to
[19:54] Iran right now. Why did we do it?
[19:56] Again, I guess because
[19:59] supposedly Iran made it known that if
[20:02] anyone hurt them, they'd hurt us, and
[20:04] then we were told that Israel was going
[20:05] to hurt them, which mean by proxy meant
[20:08] Iran was going to hurt us. So, instead
[20:10] of letting them hurt us, we hurt them
[20:11] first.
[20:15] And
[20:16] is is
[20:18] oil
[20:19] is the supply chain of oil
[20:22] and going to be impacted? I first said
[20:25] saw it news, yes, and then news, no. So,
[20:29] then oil went from up 10% to up 5%,
[20:32] and then it was back, yes, and then it
[20:34] was back, no. And oil's been extremely
[20:36] volatile. Super weird.
[20:38] The dollar definitely strengthened, but
[20:41] the bond market sold off. Again, really,
[20:44] really bizarre stuff.
[20:46] We went from risk off, where Bitcoin
[20:48] looked like it was going to make new
[20:50] recent lows lower than 60,
[20:53] and then it closed at 70.
[20:56] The market's still trying to digest what
[20:58] the [ __ ] is going on.
[21:01] Um
[21:02] All right, for the sake of time, let's
[21:03] transition into AI. So, again, the uh
[21:07] the title of the show is just how
[21:09] fragile the system is. You know, the
[21:11] theme that I'll have for you guys today
[21:14] is the timeline we're living through is
[21:17] absolutely bananas. I wouldn't have it
[21:19] any other way. I mean, if you want to
[21:21] pout and whine like a little baby,
[21:24] that's your decision. I only get one
[21:26] life. I'm here to live. I'm here to have
[21:28] a ball. I'm here to build. I'm here to
[21:30] disrupt. I'm here to I'm here to deliver
[21:33] the future that I want my kids to live
[21:34] in. First of all, I'm here to have kids.
[21:36] Okay? I'm going to have so many kids.
[21:39] I'm I'm in love. I'm going to get
[21:40] married. I'm going to have kids. I'm
[21:41] going to build stuff. I'm going to save
[21:43] money. I'm going to change the world.
[21:46] And what a time to be alive and do that.
[21:49] I've got AI. I've got Bitcoin. We're
[21:51] living through fourth turnings. I mean,
[21:54] this is it. This is the moment. If you
[21:56] want to pout and whine like a little
[21:57] like a little baby and doom scroll on
[22:00] all these social media apps, that's your
[22:01] decision. But for me, I want to just
[22:04] break down how fragile the system is,
[22:06] the timeline we're living through, try
[22:08] and tie together what are really intense
[22:11] real-time topics like Iran and AI
[22:14] and try and try and make Bitcoin,
[22:18] you know,
[22:19] reasonable
[22:20] uh as it relates to why you should turn
[22:22] your DCAs on. All right. So, AI.
[22:26] Um
[22:27] the Fed keeps commenting on it, which is
[22:30] the biggest tell. If
[22:32] If you want to know, you know, how's how
[22:34] real this stuff is, the Federal Reserve
[22:37] uh
[22:38] the central bank of the US dollar is
[22:40] commenting, okay? And so, I thought this
[22:42] comment, which we've talked about, Fed's
[22:44] Waller the Treanor report on AI
[22:46] overstates the risk to jobs.
[22:48] I mean, I think it was Luke Gromen that
[22:52] uh made this uh comparison. This is like
[22:56] when Ben Bernanke said subprime was
[22:58] contained in 2007.
[23:00] It's like, yeah, the risks to job
[23:02] market, don't even worry about it. It's
[23:04] totally overstated. And then next year
[23:07] we're in an absolute financial collapse.
[23:10] It's exactly what happened in 2007-2008.
[23:13] Same thing. The Fed was all over
[23:15] subprime until they weren't. Honestly,
[23:18] reminds me of COVID, too. It's all
[23:19] transitory. It's all transitory, right?
[23:22] So, literally, right after the Fed said
[23:24] AI's overstating or the the reports on
[23:27] AI's overstating the risks to the job
[23:29] market, literally, I think it was the
[23:31] day after he said that, Dorsey laid off
[23:34] half his company cuz of AI.
[23:38] I mean, unbelievable.
[23:41] Unbelievable.
[23:42] Hey guys, don't worry about it.
[23:45] It's all overstated. The job market's
[23:47] fine. Literally, the next day a
[23:50] uh
[23:51] S&P 500 company with 10,000 employees
[23:54] lays off 40% of their workforce
[23:57] cuz of AI. And listen, there's
[24:00] there's probably some nuance here. I
[24:02] think Block still has more employees
[24:04] than Coinbase and Robinhood.
[24:07] So, you know, were they bloated?
[24:09] Whatever. I don't
[24:11] The guy The guy in charge said it was
[24:13] cuz of AI.
[24:15] The market traded up 25%. Look at this
[24:17] from CNBC. Block shares soar as much as
[24:20] 24% as company slashes workforce by
[24:23] nearly half. Block said Thursday it's
[24:25] laying off more than 4,000 4,000
[24:28] employees or about half of its head
[24:30] count. Shares of the payment company
[24:32] skyrocketed as much as 24%
[24:35] in extended trading. And here's here's
[24:37] the really interesting thing, guys. When
[24:39] you hyper financialize, so remember, the
[24:41] United States has hyper financialized.
[24:44] We've hollowed out the middle class.
[24:45] We've hollowed out our industrial base.
[24:47] We've hollowed out any blue-collar work.
[24:49] It's all white-collar. It's all jobs on
[24:51] the coast, right? We've talked about
[24:52] this time and time again on this show.
[24:54] Our major export is the US dollar. It is
[24:57] hyper-financialization.
[24:58] What do the smartest people in this
[25:00] country work on? They're hedge fund
[25:01] managers, they're high-frequency
[25:03] traders, they're they're [ __ ] Citadel
[25:06] traders trying to pick pick off your
[25:08] Robinhood trades. That's That's the
[25:10] policy in the culture that we've built
[25:12] in the United States. We've
[25:13] hyper-financialized. What happens when
[25:15] you've hyper-financialized? The market
[25:17] rewards you because you're increasing
[25:20] your margins by firing 4,000 people.
[25:24] That's the incentive. The incentive is
[25:26] to replace all of the labor with robots
[25:30] and grow your margins so you're
[25:32] optimizing the best for shareholders,
[25:33] which is optimizing the best for all the
[25:35] passive flows and the endowments and the
[25:37] [ __ ]
[25:38] It's I mean, that's policy. When you're
[25:41] the world reserve currency and you've
[25:42] hyper-financialized,
[25:44] that like you've created this beast.
[25:47] This is a result of decisions that have
[25:49] been made over decades.
[25:51] It's crazy It's crazy that on the show,
[25:54] I sound like a fortune teller or a
[25:56] genius
[25:57] where it's just it's so simple. It's so
[26:00] obvious. You just don't listen to the
[26:02] ludicrous [ __ ] of mainstream media
[26:05] and modern-day universities. You just
[26:07] think for yourself. Think for first
[26:08] principles.
[26:09] So, anyways, the Fed says everything's
[26:11] fine. The next day, we learn like, "No,
[26:14] it's absolutely not." And by the way,
[26:16] we've lived through this. I remember
[26:18] what Bernanke said in 2007. I remember
[26:21] what J. Powell said in 2000. Oh, it's
[26:24] transitory. It's transitory. No, it
[26:26] turns out it wasn't. Okay, now what's
[26:28] your next gig? AI risk to jobs is
[26:30] overstated? Yeah, okay. That means it
[26:32] probably isn't. And then this from Tech
[26:35] Layoff Tracker on Twitter
[26:37] just got this DM. [ __ ] is getting real
[26:39] out there.
[26:41] I'm going to read the DM.
[26:43] I'm an M2 at a Fang. Just got out of an
[26:47] unscheduled all-hands. Management
[26:49] confirmed a workforce reduction of
[26:52] approximately 25% company-wide with
[26:56] org-specific targets and tied directly
[26:58] to accelerating AI investments.
[27:02] That's from a Fang.
[27:07] Okay, now let's look at the data. The
[27:10] Fed wants to blow smoke up everyone's
[27:11] ass? Let's look at the data.
[27:14] Okay, this is job open on the left, this
[27:16] is job openings in finance and in
[27:18] insurance.
[27:20] Again, I'm just go just sorting by
[27:22] white-collar.
[27:24] Guys, please look at the job openings
[27:28] for finance and insurance.
[27:30] We're at levels lower than COVID.
[27:34] We are at
[27:36] post-global financial crisis levels.
[27:38] This is By the way, this is
[27:41] the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics
[27:43] via Fred. I like I didn't make this
[27:46] these images myself.
[27:49] Look at the job openings on the right,
[27:51] information.
[27:55] I mean, again, like
[27:57] I'm a college dropout. I'm not a I'm no
[28:00] genius. Like, what Just look at the
[28:03] data.
[28:05] Now, this shows you how fast AI is
[28:07] moving.
[28:09] To me, I I the title of the slide is the
[28:12] most important chart in the world. So,
[28:14] AI capability is doubling every 4
[28:17] months. It's growing 100% every 4
[28:19] months, and it's grown 26,000 times
[28:23] since GPT-2 came out.
[28:26] I want to read this tweet to you guys.
[28:27] This is banana land. We estimate that
[28:30] Claude Opus 4.6, so the new Claude
[28:33] model, has a 50% time horizon of around
[28:37] 14 and 1/2 hours on software tasks. Let
[28:41] me translate that to language for you
[28:43] guys to understand. What that means
[28:46] is that the latest Claude model
[28:49] has about a 50% chance of achieving a
[28:53] task that would have taken a human 14
[28:57] and a half hours and it can do it in
[28:59] seconds.
[29:03] I'm going to say that one more time.
[29:05] The latest Claude model has a coin flip
[29:08] of a chance
[29:09] of achieving something in a matter of
[29:12] seconds or maybe minutes that it would
[29:14] have taken a human 14 and a half hours
[29:17] to do.
[29:22] And look at the the title of my slide.
[29:25] AI capability is doubling every four
[29:27] months. So in four months from now,
[29:30] it'll take seconds to do what it took a
[29:33] human more than a day to do. And then
[29:35] four more months from there, it'll take
[29:38] seconds for what it took a human half a
[29:40] week to do. And it's only a matter of
[29:42] time before it is seconds before it can
[29:44] do what a human can do in a year.
[29:49] The rate of change I it's hard to
[29:52] comprehend.
[29:57] I like
[29:59] No, but your jobs are fine.
[30:01] Your jobs are fine though.
[30:02] According to the Fed.
[30:04] The subprime market was fine.
[30:07] The COVID inflation was transitory. Your
[30:10] jobs are
[30:11] all good. All good. Markets are fine.
[30:14] Um well, let's look at how confident
[30:17] people are.
[30:18] US adults optimism about their future
[30:21] has fallen to 59.2%
[30:24] the lowest ever.
[30:28] Here we are.
[30:30] K-shaped economy, AI disruption,
[30:34] wealth is being highly concentrate
[30:37] concentrated into the most elite class
[30:39] we've ever seen.
[30:41] Stock markets are at all-time highs, but
[30:43] everyone's depressed, overdosing on
[30:45] pills, substance abuse all-time highs,
[30:48] obesity all-time highs.
[30:51] Assassination attempts are rivaling the
[30:54] mid-1800s, which was the Civil War.
[30:59] How How am I
[31:03] more accurate in speaking more truth
[31:04] than the Fed, than mainstream media,
[31:06] than the government?
[31:10] It's outrageous. It's all in our face,
[31:14] too. Like all you have to do is read the
[31:17] news.
[31:23] Okay. Um
[31:24] now
[31:25] chapter three here, I've titled leverage
[31:27] kills. And the point of this chapter is
[31:31] just
[31:32] what I'm Here I I I want to be super
[31:34] clear. I'm not saying AI is going to
[31:37] take everyone's job, cuz I've gotten
[31:39] that feedback. It's like, "Dude, you're
[31:41] like being so pessimistic. It's so
[31:43] depressing listening to you. Like what
[31:45] we're We're all going to be like sitting
[31:46] in on our phone on TikTok and watching
[31:48] Elon's robots do everything?" That's not
[31:50] what I'm saying. In fact, I'm on record
[31:52] saying I think we're going to have an
[31:53] art renaissance with Bitcoin and AI. We
[31:56] can have be future-oriented
[31:59] artists and creators. Uh we don't need
[32:02] to do the white-collar mundane tasks of
[32:05] doing other people's taxes, for example.
[32:07] But whatever.
[32:09] Back to my point. My point is I'm not
[32:11] saying all the jobs are going to be
[32:13] taken.
[32:15] Not at all, actually.
[32:17] What's relevant when it comes to macro,
[32:19] when it comes to money printing, when it
[32:20] comes to a lot of the things we talk
[32:22] about, is the system is so highly
[32:24] leveraged. You're talking about $40
[32:25] trillion of debt, okay?
[32:29] All it takes is a little bit of pain for
[32:32] a system this leveraged to collapse on
[32:34] itself.
[32:36] How do I know that? Well, just take a
[32:37] look at 2008. So, this slide reads, "The
[32:40] lesson of 2008. In February 2008, the
[32:42] mortgage delinquency and foreclosure
[32:44] rate hit 7.3%."
[32:47] Now, let documentaries tell it, let
[32:49] exaggerat- exaggerators on Twitter tell
[32:52] it,
[32:53] you'd think it hit 73%.
[32:55] It's 7.3%.
[32:58] So, what does that mean? What's 100 -
[32:59] 7.3? That means 92.7%
[33:02] of mortgages were still current.
[33:05] But, that 7.3% combined with all of the
[33:08] systemic leverage that the fiat
[33:10] financial system requires was enough to
[33:13] collapse the global banking system and
[33:15] just flatten it on its face.
[33:18] So, what's my point? My point is AI
[33:20] doesn't need to take all the jobs.
[33:23] AI needs to take a little bit of the
[33:25] jobs. If unemployment gets to 6 to 8%,
[33:29] this fiat system is toast. Like,
[33:32] completely and utterly screwed. Mind
[33:35] you, also, if we're going to be in war
[33:38] in the Middle East,
[33:40] if oil is going to start to market up
[33:43] 10%, inflation is coming back, bond
[33:45] market is selling off, guys, if there's
[33:48] a flight to safety, the bond market's
[33:50] not supposed to sell off. Okay?
[33:53] Like, you combine all of this at once,
[33:59] I
[34:00] Again, here and here's my thing. If you
[34:02] think Bitcoin's going to zero, I don't
[34:04] know why you're listening to this
[34:05] podcast. Maybe it's my
[34:08] big, beautiful, blue eyes and these
[34:10] luscious locks. Ladies, ladies, keep it
[34:13] together now. I'm taken, okay?
[34:16] But, if you think Bitcoin's going to
[34:17] zero, I don't know why you're listening
[34:18] to this podcast.
[34:20] If you don't think Bitcoin's going to
[34:21] zero, that means you probably think it's
[34:23] going to a million, to 10 million.
[34:26] There's no in between. It's either the
[34:28] best money we've ever invented and come
[34:30] across, or it's not.
[34:33] And if you think it's going to work,
[34:36] you have to turn on your DCAs. There's
[34:39] no better timeline to be living through.
[34:42] So, anyways,
[34:44] knowing that all it's going to take is
[34:46] unemployment to get to 6 to 8%. And the
[34:49] stress of the banking system. By the
[34:51] way, the banks in the S&P 500 on Friday
[34:55] closed down almost 4%.
[34:57] Okay? Well, let's take a look at
[35:00] delinquencies again. This feels like a
[35:01] weekly recurrence on this show is
[35:03] looking at delinquencies. This from
[35:05] Yahoo Finance. Americans are defaulting
[35:07] at a crisis-level pace. Credit card
[35:10] delinquencies are now at 12.7%.
[35:12] Auto loan delinquencies are now over 5%.
[35:15] 49% of Americans are struggling to pay
[35:18] their rent or their mortgage now. And an
[35:21] all-time high in student loan
[35:23] delinquencies. An all-time high of
[35:25] 16.3%.
[35:27] This is all a combination of Bloomberg,
[35:29] Yahoo Finance, and Redfin.
[35:34] Again,
[35:35] I'm not saying AI is going to take all
[35:38] the jobs.
[35:39] I'm saying AI is absolutely going to
[35:42] push unemployment to 6%. Delinquencies
[35:45] are going to reach a level where either
[35:47] they print the money or we go into an
[35:49] austerity so painful that there might
[35:51] not even be a history book about it.
[35:55] It's just math
[35:58] that I, by the way, learned in high
[36:00] school. Right? It didn't take a college
[36:02] degree to learn this math.
[36:05] Okay? I found this interesting. Jamie
[36:07] Dimon is like the private market sacred.
[36:10] He's like a de facto arm of the US
[36:12] government. I mean, how many times has
[36:14] he helped restructure [ __ ] up fiat
[36:16] situations on behalf of the US
[36:18] government? And so, when he says
[36:20] something, it's effectively
[36:25] an arm of the establishment.
[36:28] I found this astonishing. Breaking,
[36:31] Jamie Dimon says he's starting to see
[36:33] parallels to the era before the 2008
[36:35] financial crisis, when a rush to make
[36:37] loans ended disastrously.
[36:40] I mean,
[36:41] if if that was a Jack Mallers quote,
[36:45] okay, we'd be busting balls about it on
[36:47] Twitter.
[36:48] That's a Jamie Dimon quote?
[36:51] Yikes.
[36:56] Okay. The image on the right, there are
[36:58] 44% more home sellers than buyers. Guys,
[37:01] that is that means there's stress.
[37:04] If you are nervous about your future, if
[37:08] you are nervous about your job, if you
[37:11] are nervous about your finances, if you
[37:13] are nervous about the economy,
[37:16] the first thing you do is stop looking
[37:18] for a house. Ah, screw it all, extend my
[37:20] rent one more year.
[37:21] Extend my lease one more year.
[37:26] 44% more sellers than buyers? Yikes.
[37:30] Yikes.
[37:32] Not good. Not good.
[37:37] Okay, the fiscal doom loop. This is the
[37:40] math on you either have to print or
[37:41] default. This image I got from Luke,
[37:44] shout out Luke. So, this is you US true
[37:46] interest expense as a percent of US tax
[37:48] receipts. So,
[37:50] from a high level, what is our expense
[37:53] versus how much are we making? How much
[37:55] do we have to spend versus how much are
[37:56] we making, right? So, employment is over
[37:58] 50% of federal receipts and true
[38:00] interest expense is already almost 100%
[38:02] of receipts. Think about that. True True
[38:06] interest expense is almost all of the
[38:08] revenue we're making, basically.
[38:11] So, even the tiniest bit of an AI-driven
[38:15] uptick or a correction in the stock
[38:17] market or a war and and the tiniest bit.
[38:24] Boom, goodbye.
[38:27] So, the point of this episode,
[38:30] you've got new conflict in the Middle
[38:33] East. So, you've got war spending now.
[38:36] Initially, Trump said, "Oh, this is only
[38:39] a quick operation. We just need to take
[38:40] the regime out." Then it was 4 weeks.
[38:42] Now Trump, as I hit record or stream,
[38:45] was saying it might be more than 4
[38:47] weeks. Okay, so we might be on the brink
[38:49] of war time spending.
[38:52] It's unclear how the oil market's going
[38:53] to respond, which would trigger some
[38:55] inflationary tendencies. So, you've got
[38:57] war spending and oil shock.
[38:59] AI deflation, which is impacting
[39:02] unemployment, which impacts receipts.
[39:06] And we're already at true interest
[39:08] expense of 100% of our receipts nearly.
[39:12] Good game. Turn on your DCAs. When
[39:17] Bitcoin hits the moon, you can't say I
[39:20] didn't tell you so. You cannot say I
[39:22] didn't tell you so. And
[39:24] this is from Michael Howell, CrossBorder
[39:26] Capital. I already I had mentioned him.
[39:28] I would subscribe to his newsletters if
[39:30] you don't. I really have been enjoying
[39:32] his stuff. Um, the Fed's already
[39:34] printing.
[39:36] Now, it's modest.
[39:38] It's not anything crazy yet,
[39:42] but the balance sheet is going the other
[39:44] way. Just a reminder, guys, they stopped
[39:47] QT in December. Now, what they started
[39:50] isn't technically QE. I count it as QE,
[39:53] but it's balance sheet expansion.
[39:55] 525 billion in 3 months. 20% of
[39:59] annualized Fed liquidity growth over the
[40:01] past 6 months.
[40:04] I don't know. Okay?
[40:09] Another really, really important one,
[40:11] ISM manufacturing print came in
[40:15] expansionary again. So, manufacturing is
[40:18] expanding. 2 months in a row is a trend.
[40:22] ISM PMI came in at 52.4.
[40:25] This historically has been incredibly
[40:27] bullish for Bitcoin. This means the
[40:29] business cycle is here. Traditionally,
[40:31] when the business cycle starts to pick
[40:33] up like this, when ISM starts to pick up
[40:35] like this, this is the beginning of a
[40:37] Bitcoin bull market. This is where
[40:39] Bitcoin finds its bottom. Now,
[40:41] please don't take that as financial
[40:43] advice. Just turn on your DCA, stay
[40:46] humble, and stack sats. But, these are
[40:48] all really important signals, guys.
[40:50] Really, really important signals. So,
[40:52] let's get to the last chapter, which I
[40:54] call deep value, where generational
[40:56] wealth is built. This is the most
[40:59] oversold, according to RSI, relative
[41:02] strength index, that Bitcoin has ever
[41:04] been. Bitcoin at $65,000
[41:08] is the most oversold, according to RSI,
[41:11] in Bitcoin's history. [snorts]
[41:14] History.
[41:17] I've seen Bitcoin post Mt. Gox.
[41:21] I've seen Bitcoin. The 2015 bear market
[41:23] was the worst.
[41:26] Guys, I remember running up to my dad's
[41:29] room
[41:30] when Bitcoin hit was almost $1,300
[41:34] and just freaking out like, "Oh my gosh,
[41:37] what's happening? Holy smokes."
[41:40] And then it fell from
[41:43] call it $1,300
[41:45] to a little over $200 over years. It
[41:50] just grind It looked like it was just
[41:52] slowly dying to zero.
[41:55] And we had nothing.
[41:58] No exchanges. No no support from any
[42:01] industry, from any government. We had
[42:03] nothing. I didn't even know how to code
[42:05] at the time.
[42:08] We had nothing.
[42:10] And you're telling me it's more oversold
[42:12] now than then
[42:14] at a $200 Bitcoin?
[42:21] Um I mean
[42:26] I All of these charts, by the way, this
[42:27] guy's a great follow on Twitter, this
[42:29] Frank guy.
[42:30] Just turn on your DCAs. I mean, this
[42:32] slide is says it all. Sorry, I'm looking
[42:34] at the clock. I want to be able to run
[42:36] you guys through these strike
[42:37] announcements. Um
[42:39] So, this slide reads, "This is where
[42:40] wealth is built."
[42:42] The system needs the printer. You talk
[42:44] about war.
[42:46] You talk about oil marketing up.
[42:48] You talk about AI deflationary
[42:49] tendencies. You talk about true interest
[42:51] expense near 100% of our receipts.
[42:53] I mean, it's math. It's math.
[42:57] People will say, "Wow, how how do you
[42:59] Bitcoiners know the future?"
[43:01] I didn't I mean
[43:03] Is Is knowing that 2 + 2 = 4 knowing the
[43:07] future?
[43:08] Does that make me a fortune teller?
[43:10] Jack, what's 5 + 5? 10. Wow, you know
[43:13] the future.
[43:15] I don't know about that. I know how to
[43:16] do math.
[43:21] The system needs the printer. The only
[43:23] question is when, not if. Bitcoin is on
[43:26] sale at historic oversold levels. Turn
[43:30] on your DCA.
[43:35] Turn it on.
[43:41] All right. A quick grind my gears
[43:43] section. I got one topic for grind my
[43:46] gears, but it's an important one, so
[43:47] let's do it. You know what really grinds
[43:50] my gears this week?
[43:52] War.
[43:54] What the [ __ ] man?
[43:57] Seriously.
[44:00] All jokes aside, what the [ __ ]
[44:04] Enough with the war.
[44:07] It doesn't matter who we vote in, what
[44:10] they believe in, what the policy is,
[44:12] what the stock market's at. None of this
[44:15] [ __ ] matters.
[44:18] I was born in 1994.
[44:21] You know, I was taken out of school on
[44:24] 9/11.
[44:26] I was in second grade.
[44:29] So, all I know, what's the United States
[44:32] to me? War, debt, inflation. This is
[44:36] [ __ ]
[44:38] What the [ __ ]
[44:42] I mean, and it's insane it's it's hard
[44:44] for me to really understand what's AI,
[44:46] what's not, what's fake news, what's
[44:48] not.
[44:49] But, you're seeing places like Dubai
[44:51] getting hit. I'm seeing friends of mine
[44:53] like, "Oh, I was just at that
[44:54] restaurant." And as it's exploding.
[44:59] I mean, my my prayers are just with
[45:02] humanity, man. I just don't believe
[45:06] Again, I'm not a political guy. I'mma
[45:08] leave the geopolitics stuff for the
[45:10] experts on Twitter and on CNN where
[45:12] wherever they are. I don't even know
[45:14] where they are. I I don't That's not my
[45:16] thing.
[45:17] Okay?
[45:19] So, whether some, you know,
[45:21] authoritarian regime needed to get
[45:24] executed, I That's not my place.
[45:27] I'm anti-violence, anti-war, pro-peace.
[45:32] Let's fix the world with software.
[45:36] Bitcoin is our peaceful exit. What
[45:38] grinds my gears is [ __ ] war.
[45:42] I mean, how many politicians my whole
[45:45] life have campaigned, "No more war. No
[45:48] more spending. No more debt." They're
[45:51] all full of [ __ ]
[45:54] So, I'm convinced it's not the people,
[45:56] it's the system. The government's gotten
[45:58] too big. The money is too corrupt. I'm
[46:01] out.
[46:03] Historically, we have two ways to
[46:06] express ourselves, express power,
[46:09] express the individual sovereignty that
[46:12] we in theory are born with.
[46:15] One is through our voice.
[46:18] But when your voice is no longer
[46:20] sufficient,
[46:21] which it is not any longer,
[46:24] there's I I I don't believe that there's
[46:26] a protest we need to host or a podcast
[46:29] we need to record or a tweet we need to
[46:31] write. Our voice doesn't work anymore.
[46:34] They're going to print money, they're
[46:36] going to spend and exceed their means,
[46:38] they're going to bomb people, they're
[46:39] going to murder people, no matter how we
[46:42] vote, no matter what we believe in, no
[46:45] matter how much technology we build, no
[46:46] matter how many [ __ ] podcasts I
[46:48] record, people are going to die.
[46:52] So, what's left? Exit.
[46:54] I'm out.
[46:57] If you go back and look at the tweet
[46:58] storm I put together when I said I own
[47:00] $0, read why I did that. Did I do it
[47:04] because I think it's a financially good
[47:06] thing? Yes, I did. Because the dollar
[47:08] only goes down and Bitcoin, if you hold
[47:10] it long enough, only goes up. That's one
[47:13] of the reasons I did it. But I stated
[47:15] even more important than that was I
[47:18] refuse to support this system. [ __ ]
[47:22] that. They will not get my time and
[47:24] energy. Because at what point is enough
[47:26] enough?
[47:28] Seriously. I protest, I vote, I donate,
[47:32] and no matter what, it's a humiliation
[47:34] ritual. Just get spit in the face by
[47:38] every single government. We go to every
[47:41] single war. We drop every single bomb.
[47:47] And what is a 31-year-old young man
[47:50] looking to have a family like me
[47:52] supposed to do? Am I seriously supposed
[47:54] to sit inside my living room and look
[47:57] out at the sunset and say, well, I was
[47:59] born at the wrong time. I guess I'm just
[48:01] going to support war. I guess my kids
[48:04] are just going to be born into these
[48:05] modern day cities full of violence, full
[48:08] of indebtedness, where they they're
[48:11] they're up to their eyeballs in debt to
[48:13] learn calculus while Elon's robots take
[48:15] their job. [ __ ] that. [ __ ] that and [ __ ]
[48:20] you. No.
[48:22] I'm not like I'm sorry. That's just not
[48:24] how I was raised. I'm not going to lay
[48:26] over and peel over like a dog and die.
[48:30] [ __ ] that.
[48:33] We're going to build an alternative
[48:34] system and I'm going to take my time and
[48:36] energy and put it over there.
[48:43] It's crazy, man. You wake up and by the
[48:46] way, they do these things over the
[48:48] weekend.
[48:49] I mean, it really is
[48:52] it's like it's like breaking up with
[48:54] someone over text. Like if you're going
[48:56] to go drop bombs on people's head and
[48:59] there's going to be US casualties and
[49:01] now they're saying there's sleeper
[49:02] cells. They're so I Iran and and these
[49:05] other crazy terrorist regimes have
[49:08] sleepers inside the country and so
[49:10] they're trying to keep an eye on anyone
[49:12] that would harm innocent civilians
[49:14] inside of America and major cities. What
[49:17] the [ __ ] At least be upfront about it.
[49:20] You're going to do it on a Friday night
[49:22] while I'm sleeping? I mean, at what
[49:24] point I mean, do you have any decency?
[49:27] What the [ __ ]
[49:34] I don't know, man. If I'm going to be
[49:37] blessed to have a life on this earth,
[49:43] I'm going to work on Bitcoin. That's
[49:46] just it. It's the most hopeful thing I
[49:48] got. I'm not going to peel over and die.
[49:51] I'm not going to give up. I'm not going
[49:53] to give in.
[49:54] But I'm also I'm done I'm not going to
[49:56] protest. So people say, "Oh, woah, dude,
[49:59] you don't vote? What the fuck?" What
[50:01] What do you mean? What's voting going to
[50:02] do?
[50:05] What the [ __ ] Come on.
[50:08] Oh, yeah, I need to go make sure I go
[50:10] tally my No. I mean, sure, whatever.
[50:12] That next time I'll vote. If it makes
[50:13] you guys happier, I'll vote next time.
[50:15] I'll make sure I vote.
[50:20] I'm going to build Strike.
[50:22] I'm going to fund open-source
[50:23] development.
[50:26] I'm going to give as many uh
[50:29] keynotes at these conferences. I'm going
[50:30] to record this podcast every Monday, no
[50:33] matter how bad I do I do, no matter how
[50:35] dumb my ideas are.
[50:38] It doesn't matter. That's That's how we
[50:40] change [ __ ] That's how we
[50:41] revolutionize.
[50:45] [ __ ] It's crazy, man. It's like, what
[50:48] year is it? Am I in second grade or am I
[50:50] 31? It's the same [ __ ] my whole life.
[50:57] You watch these documentaries about
[50:58] America. You hear these stories about
[50:59] America.
[51:01] I mean,
[51:02] don't get me wrong. Best country in the
[51:03] world. I wouldn't want to live anywhere
[51:04] else. I'm so blessed. But what the [ __ ]
[51:08] man? This country.
[51:10] I mean, we've just been in war as long
[51:12] as I can remember.
[51:15] Financial crisis, war, lies, bigger and
[51:18] bigger government.
[51:23] All right. Well,
[51:24] that's what grinds my gears.
[51:28] That's what grinds my gears this week.
[51:30] War. Just war. All war. War and
[51:32] violence. All of it.
[51:35] Grinds my [ __ ] gears. All right.
[51:38] Let's um
[51:40] Let's uh
[51:42] talk about Strike because we We a huge
[51:45] week. I have some awesome announcements
[51:47] for you guys. I got to be a little bit
[51:48] quick. So, it's 5:53. I've got 6:30
[51:51] event, but the 6:30 event is super close
[51:54] to my house. So, I can maybe I was
[51:55] targeting a 6:15 end time.
[51:59] I might need to extend that. Cooking.
[52:00] We're cooking. That was a rant right
[52:02] there. That was a rant. Let me get a sip
[52:04] of water real quick.
[52:22] >> [snorts]
[52:25] >> Um
[52:27] Okay. Strike.
[52:30] Uh line of credit.
[52:31] So, our line of credit product has begun
[52:33] rolling out. Um I'm going to
[52:37] officially, hopefully, announce it in
[52:40] the way that I traditionally announce
[52:41] products tomorrow.
[52:43] Um
[52:45] I just want to reread this post I put on
[52:48] Nostr uh a little while ago. I put this
[52:50] out in October.
[52:52] Um I wrote, "I like owning as much
[52:55] Bitcoin as possible and no fiat as well.
[52:58] So, check this out. We're working on a
[53:00] line of credit product that will, in
[53:02] real time, extend a credit line against
[53:04] your Bitcoin to make lightning payments,
[53:06] pay your bills, etc. This way, you don't
[53:09] have to part with your Bitcoin or own
[53:12] fiat to live in today's society. You
[53:14] hold Bitcoins, you borrow fiat paper for
[53:17] your payments and everyday expenses.
[53:19] You manage the line of credit and pay it
[53:21] down via your direct deposit or any
[53:22] other funding method. It works just like
[53:24] a credit card today, except it's secured
[53:26] with Bitcoin.
[53:28] So,
[53:29] I've been talking about this idea,
[53:30] right? And so, here's This is our line
[53:33] of credit logo. This is what it looks
[53:35] like inside your app and
[53:37] um when you see this, you'll you'll
[53:39] think of our our line of credit.
[53:41] So,
[53:43] anyways,
[53:44] check this out, guys. So, you guys want
[53:46] to see how amazing AI is? I'll show you
[53:48] what I built over the weekend to support
[53:49] this this thing. So,
[53:53] I was really trying to conceptualize how
[53:56] I can communicate to you guys and to the
[53:58] broader public how powerful this line of
[54:01] credit product is cuz you guys have
[54:02] heard me say things like, "This is the
[54:05] This probably my favorite thing I've
[54:06] ever built in my in my career, by far. I
[54:09] think this is the most powerful thing
[54:10] I've ever built is this Bitcoin line of
[54:12] credit product. It allows anybody
[54:15] that has access to it to short fiat and
[54:18] live on Bitcoin
[54:20] effortlessly. And the big Our Bitcoin
[54:23] lending product was useful in this
[54:25] regard, but getting a 12-month term loan
[54:28] is really difficult because you have to
[54:30] borrow a large lump sum of cash up
[54:33] front. And when you're taking out a
[54:35] large lump sum of cash, you're risking
[54:38] that the market goes down, you you might
[54:40] get yourself in a margin call, you're
[54:42] also paying interest on cash that you
[54:45] might not need for 10 months. So, let's
[54:48] say my annual expenses are 100 grand and
[54:51] I borrow 100 grand over 12 months. Well,
[54:53] I'm paying interest on all 100,000.
[54:55] Whereas, if I'm only spending like 7, 8,
[54:58] 9 grand a month, I want to only pay
[55:01] interest on what I spend in real time. I
[55:03] don't want to have to pay for it up
[55:04] front. So, these weird 12-month duration
[55:07] products and also it expires at 12
[55:09] months and so there's the manual process
[55:10] of rolling it over.
[55:12] Obviously, like I said before, if you
[55:14] have a large expense in your life,
[55:16] you're putting a down payment on a
[55:17] house, you're financing your wedding,
[55:19] maybe these 12-month loans are good cuz
[55:22] you're saying, "Hey, I'm going to
[55:23] finance over 12 months my wedding
[55:25] expense collateralized with my Bitcoin."
[55:28] That makes sense to me. But, if you want
[55:30] to live on Bitcoin in the way I do,
[55:33] I always told my Strike team, "The dream
[55:35] is a line of credit product, a perpetual
[55:37] product, okay?
[55:38] So, I was trying to think, how can I
[55:41] give people the math of how I use it,
[55:43] and how can I correctly explain
[55:46] what
[55:48] uh
[55:48] I like invented, basically. So, check
[55:51] this out. This is on the internet, but
[55:53] it's password protected. Uh so, this is
[55:57] Hold on.
[55:59] Um
[56:01] Let's see.
[56:03] What is it? It's live on Bitcoin.
[56:08] So,
[56:09] I created this
[56:11] uh
[56:12] tool. It's at
[56:14] liveonbitcoin.jackmallers.com.
[56:18] And you guys are going to be able to go
[56:20] to it right now, but it is password
[56:23] protected, and you don't know the
[56:24] password yet. So, I will unleash this
[56:27] tomorrow uh without a password
[56:30] protection um for the world to use. Um
[56:34] so, you won't be able to get into it
[56:35] yet, but check this out. So, I built
[56:37] this dashboard this weekend. And it
[56:40] effectively
[56:43] um
[56:44] is able to Let me blow this up a little
[56:46] bit here. Um it's able to really walk us
[56:49] through
[56:52] the math of why this is such a life
[56:54] hack. Okay, so here's what we're looking
[56:56] at here. Here's the dashboard I built.
[56:57] And so, this is living on Bitcoin, see
[57:00] what the Bitcoin line of credit can do
[57:02] for your life. Okay, so
[57:05] check this out, guys. So, here's what I
[57:06] did. Let me make my uh face smaller
[57:09] here.
[57:10] Because basically, here's the thing.
[57:13] You You're You're
[57:15] You're living off one core basic
[57:16] assumption here. The assumption is, do
[57:19] you think Bitcoin can outperform
[57:22] the APR that you're paying? When people
[57:24] say like, "Oh, Strike loans are way too
[57:26] expensive. They're 9%, 10%, 11%, 12%,
[57:29] 13%, whatever they are." People say
[57:31] they're too expensive, and I don't think
[57:32] that's the case at all.
[57:34] As long as Bitcoin can comfortably
[57:36] out-perform what you're paying to
[57:38] borrow, it's an absolute smashing home
[57:40] run. Like right now, think about it.
[57:42] Saylor's paying 11 and 1/2, 12%,
[57:45] whatever it is, for his stretch product,
[57:47] and that's not a problem to him because
[57:49] he thinks Bitcoin's CAGR, its annual
[57:52] compounding rate, is going to be higher
[57:53] than that. So, here's what I did. This
[57:56] tool I built pulls in the current
[57:58] Bitcoin price rounded to the nearest
[58:00] thousand, so it's got it at $70,000
[58:02] right now.
[58:04] And it says, "What's your monthly
[58:05] income, and what's your monthly
[58:06] expenses?" So, it defaults to monthly
[58:09] income at $8,000, monthly expenses at
[58:11] $5,000.
[58:13] Now, it says, "What's Bitcoin's CAGR?"
[58:15] Now, I have moderate at 50%. You can put
[58:18] conservative at 30%, historical at 80%.
[58:21] You can drag it to zero if you want.
[58:24] Let's keep it at 50% for now, and I'll
[58:26] I'll change it in a second. And then,
[58:28] set your inflation rate. So, the Fed's
[58:31] target is 2%.
[58:33] I think realistic is more like 5%. I
[58:35] think if you want a high quality of
[58:37] life, inflation rate's closer to 10%,
[58:40] and if you want really nice things, your
[58:42] inflation rate, like beachfront uh real
[58:45] estate in Miami, your inflation rate's
[58:46] probably 20%. Okay, let's keep it at 5%
[58:49] for now.
[58:50] And then, it's what's your time horizon.
[58:51] You talking about a year? Are you
[58:52] talking about 10 years? Let's put it at
[58:54] five. Now, what the tool does is it
[58:56] walks through what I call different
[58:58] strategies, okay? This is a stack sats
[59:01] strategy. I This is the strategy that I
[59:05] want to walk you guys through, the smart
[59:06] lock, smart line of credit.
[59:09] This is a sell to live, so if you were
[59:11] to use not use the line of credit at
[59:12] all, and you were to just sell Bitcoin
[59:14] to cover your expenses. So, the point is
[59:17] Sorry, to take a step back. The point
[59:18] is, how do I maximize the amount of
[59:20] Bitcoin I own and live on a Bitcoin
[59:22] standard? Cuz that's what I've done for
[59:24] myself, and I've told you guys, like
[59:26] this product changes my life and it and
[59:29] and it can change everyone's life and I
[59:31] want to really like spend the time and
[59:33] walk you guys through this. And this is
[59:35] obviously if you don't own any Bitcoin
[59:36] at all.
[59:37] So again,
[59:38] this person or this family's monthly
[59:40] income is $8,000 a month, which means
[59:42] they're bringing in what, like around 90
[59:44] grand a year, a little higher? What's 8
[59:47] * 12? 96. So they're bringing in 96
[59:50] grand a year. Um they're spending $5,000
[59:53] a month. So here's the strategy. Stack
[59:56] sats strategy means you're only paying
[59:59] off the interest you're accruing
[60:01] and everything else is going to Bitcoin.
[60:03] So you build up a line of credit balance
[60:05] over 5 years. So I have the time at 5
[60:07] years.
[60:08] So what is monthly expenses of 5 grand *
[60:11] 12 is 60 * another 5 is 300. This is
[60:15] adding a ton of leverage, okay? This
[60:17] means you're never managing your line of
[60:19] credit. All you're doing is taking on
[60:21] the most leverage possible. And if I
[60:24] take this 5 years and I drag it to the
[60:26] left to 4 years or 3 years or 2 years or
[60:28] 1 year, you see the stack sats strategy,
[60:31] you're getting liquidated if the Bitcoin
[60:33] price crashes 80%. So I have down here
[60:36] as the stress test, what if Bitcoin
[60:38] crashes 80%? Will I be okay?
[60:41] And the stack sats, if if Bitcoin isn't
[60:44] compounding over a long period of time
[60:46] at a high CAGR and all you're doing is
[60:48] adding maximum amount of leverage, you
[60:51] can find yourself in trouble. Now
[60:53] obviously, if you take this so this is
[60:55] assuming you have one Bitcoin. If you
[60:56] say you have 100 Bitcoin, well then
[60:58] you're totally fine, right? If you if
[61:00] you have an ability to severely over
[61:02] collateralize yourself, no problem. But
[61:04] let's assume you have this one Bitcoin
[61:05] again. Now,
[61:07] the point of my whole idea of why we
[61:10] built this at Strike is that if you
[61:13] believe Bitcoin's not going to zero, if
[61:15] you believe Bitcoin can outperform a 10%
[61:19] or 11% or 12% or 13% APR and you can And
[61:23] we built a line of credit product that
[61:24] can help you pay your bills and can
[61:26] cover your expenses and you can get your
[61:28] direct deposit to strike. This is a bank
[61:30] account on steroids. It can absolutely
[61:32] change your life. The question is,
[61:34] what's the right amount of leverage?
[61:37] What's the right What's the right
[61:38] amount? What's the right way to use the
[61:41] line of credit product? Like what's the
[61:42] What's the math? At the end of the day,
[61:44] it's a math problem.
[61:45] And so, I call it smart line of credit.
[61:48] So, I go to smart lock over here. And
[61:51] so, let me read this to you guys. The
[61:52] one assumption that changes everything.
[61:54] Bitcoin has been the best performing
[61:56] asset in human history, averaging over
[61:58] 80% annually for more than a decade. The
[62:00] Strike line of credit costs 13% APR. If
[62:04] Bitcoin keeps outperforming 13% and the
[62:07] data says it has by a lot, you borrow
[62:09] cheap money, your collateral grows
[62:11] faster than your debt, and you never
[62:13] have to sell a sat. Your Bitcoin stays
[62:15] intact, your life is funded, you the
[62:17] interest is just noise. The smart lock,
[62:21] smart line of credit, manages the only
[62:23] real risk, which is a crash, a Bitcoin
[62:25] bear market. By keeping your
[62:27] loan-to-value ratio below 15%, even an
[62:30] 80% Bitcoin collapse can't liquidate
[62:32] your position. Enter your numbers and
[62:34] we'll tell you exactly how to use it.
[62:36] This is not on Strike's website, this is
[62:38] on my website, this is not financial
[62:40] advice. I just hacked on this. I I
[62:42] literally built this over the weekend.
[62:44] But, if you take Let's say you have
[62:46] $8,000 of income and $5,000 of monthly
[62:48] expenses. So, your monthly surplus is
[62:50] $3,000 of cash. Your income-to-expense
[62:53] ratio is 1.6. So, again, I've talked
[62:55] about
[62:57] on my show a lot, guys, where I say,
[62:59] "Hey,
[63:00] uh if you want to build wealth, like
[63:02] when people say, 'Jack, give me advice
[63:04] on how to build wealth.' I say, 'Here's
[63:06] my advice for you.' My advice is
[63:09] either be more valuable, which means
[63:11] you're getting paid more, doing more
[63:12] valuable stuff for the market, or
[63:14] consume less [ __ ] right? Which is spend
[63:17] less money.
[63:19] And you need a healthy income to
[63:21] expenses ratio. If you're spending more
[63:23] than you're earning, there's no product
[63:25] I can build for you to solve that
[63:26] problem, okay? So, we have to start with
[63:29] like let's say your monthly income is
[63:31] zero and you need to spend $5,000 a
[63:34] month, you're not viable to use this
[63:36] product. Do not use this tool. So,
[63:38] there's going to be plenty of people
[63:39] that are like, well, I make $5,000 a
[63:42] month and I spend $5,000 a month, what
[63:44] the [ __ ] like why aren't your products
[63:46] saving my life and and helping me own a
[63:48] home in the future? Well, because you're
[63:50] not earning more than you're spending.
[63:54] And by the way, Bitcoiners by definition
[63:56] are net producers because we all by
[63:59] definition have to produce more value
[64:01] than we're consuming, which means we
[64:03] have excess left over to allocate to
[64:05] Bitcoin, okay? Right? So, let's put it
[64:07] back at 8,000. And so, the tool is very
[64:09] simple.
[64:10] It says,
[64:12] here's the how the math works. So, the
[64:15] smart lock is
[64:16] I'm just going to read this. Here's the
[64:18] strategy. The smart lock separates two
[64:19] things that people usually conflate,
[64:21] income and living expense. And this is
[64:23] how I live, guys. So, everyone's always
[64:25] asking like how do you do it? What
[64:26] changed your life? Like how did you
[64:27] build the ultimate Bitcoin tool? This is
[64:30] like the coolest thing I've ever done
[64:32] and you know, I want to be able to
[64:34] really explain it to you guys. I want
[64:36] you guys to be able to leave questions
[64:38] in the YouTube comments because I'm
[64:39] going to record the video I'll release
[64:41] tomorrow either tonight or in the
[64:42] morning. So, your feedback will really
[64:44] help me make sure I I answer everyone's
[64:47] questions and make a good announcement.
[64:49] So, anyways, the smart lock separates
[64:51] two things that people usually conflate,
[64:52] income and living expenses. Instead of
[64:55] spending your income on life and
[64:56] investments and the leftovers, you
[64:59] invest all of your income into Bitcoin
[65:01] and borrow against the collateral to
[65:02] fund your life. Strike charges 13% APR
[65:05] on the loan. Bitcoin has historically
[65:07] compounded at 50 to 80% annually. The
[65:10] arbitrage is the point. It's like
[65:12] running your own personal microstrategy.
[65:15] The line of credit balance grows over
[65:17] time from drawn expenses and capitalized
[65:20] interest. But as long as Bitcoin
[65:21] appreciates faster than the 13%, your
[65:23] collateral grows faster than your debt,
[65:25] and your net Bitcoin position improves
[65:27] every year. Again, so the point is if
[65:30] you think Bitcoin's going to zero, I
[65:31] don't know why you're listening to this.
[65:32] I don't know why you would use Strike.
[65:34] If you think Bitcoin is not going to
[65:35] zero and is going to outperform whatever
[65:38] 13% then this is an absolute life hack.
[65:42] So the point of Smart Lock, this
[65:44] strategy,
[65:45] is keeping your LTV at 15% and below.
[65:50] Now Strike liquidates positions at 85%
[65:53] loan loan to value. To survive an 80%
[65:56] Bitcoin crash without liquidation, you
[65:58] need your LTV to stay below 85% even
[66:01] after collateral drops to 20% of its
[66:03] current value. So LTV after an 80% crash
[66:07] equals current LTV divided by 0.20.
[66:11] So that's how you get to the 15% number,
[66:13] okay? So anyways, the point is the way
[66:17] my strategy works here, so I'll go back
[66:19] to this tab, is
[66:21] this is extreme leverage, the one on the
[66:23] far left. If you don't have the ability
[66:25] to severely over-collateralize yourself,
[66:27] you're not sitting on a ton of Bitcoin,
[66:29] you really really really should not do
[66:31] this cuz you're at risk of a bear market
[66:33] wiping you out. Now what's the smart
[66:35] mathematical way to do this? You do
[66:38] Smart Lock. Smart Lock is
[66:41] paid out So basically, here's what
[66:43] happens.
[66:45] Let me go back to this one.
[66:50] You open up a line of credit. If your
[66:53] LTV is below 15%,
[66:56] then you just stack sats.
[66:59] If your LTV is above 15%, so let's go as
[67:04] the strategy plays out. Here's a month
[67:06] where the LTV's at 17.2%.
[67:08] So, a paydown would be triggered.
[67:10] So, you would have
[67:12] Let's say you're making eight grand a
[67:13] month. 3,600 goes towards your line of
[67:15] credit paydown. 4,300 goes towards
[67:18] buying Bitcoin. You're drawing $5,000 to
[67:20] cover your expenses.
[67:22] Now, here's what this looks like, guys.
[67:24] If you're using Smart Lock, let me
[67:26] actually go back to this one.
[67:30] You are going Your net worth Look at
[67:32] your net worth and your real return
[67:34] compared to if you were to sell to live
[67:36] and incur taxable events.
[67:38] It's an absolute life hack. Now, check
[67:41] this out. If you were to say, "Oh, well,
[67:43] what happens if Bitcoin crashes 1 year
[67:45] into the strategy?"
[67:46] Check as I As I
[67:49] scroll this thing, check the Smart Lock,
[67:52] the stress test. Well, what if Bitcoin
[67:53] falls 80% from any price it's at?
[67:57] You're always healthy. Always healthy.
[68:00] So, basically, the tool is So, for the
[68:02] line of credit, you're only paying
[68:04] interest on what you actually use.
[68:07] And so, it's this rolling line of credit
[68:09] that keeps you all in on Bitcoin. You
[68:11] never have to sell Bitcoin, and it
[68:13] doesn't really matter when Bitcoin gets
[68:15] in a bull market or a bear market. You
[68:18] just keep stacking. Okay? Now, what
[68:21] happens if Bitcoin's CAGR is not 50%?
[68:23] Let's say Bitcoin's CAGR is 0%. You're
[68:26] still super healthy. Now, a Bitcoin CAGR
[68:29] of 0% wouldn't be ideal
[68:31] because obviously, the whole point of
[68:33] the strategy is the Bitcoin CAGR should
[68:36] outperform the APR that you need. So,
[68:38] you see the real return now is -24% for
[68:42] Smart Lock, where the real return of
[68:44] just not owning Bitcoin at all is -21%.
[68:46] So, you're better off not owning Bitcoin
[68:48] at all if Bitcoin's going to stay flat
[68:50] for the next 5 years. But, even if
[68:52] Bitcoin's at 20% CAGR,
[68:55] you're killing it.
[68:56] Look at your returns. You're absolutely
[68:58] killing it.
[69:00] And so, the point is it doesn't matter
[69:02] how Bitcoin performs, it doesn't matter
[69:05] when Bitcoin goes into a bear market.
[69:08] The line of credit is not excessive
[69:10] leverage, it's how do I maximize my
[69:13] Bitcoin exposure, never sell a sat, and
[69:16] use these tools to speculatively attack
[69:20] the dollar, to short the dollar in long
[69:22] Bitcoin. So let's say your income is
[69:24] $8,000 and your monthly expenses are
[69:26] five grand. Well, the tool will
[69:29] recommend open a line of credit with
[69:31] 1.45 Bitcoin. Now, the minimum that you
[69:34] would need is 0.48, but the
[69:36] recommendation is 1.45 Bitcoin. That
[69:38] starts your LTV at 5%. And so on the
[69:41] first month when your paycheck comes in,
[69:44] you're buying 100% Bitcoin. You're
[69:46] drawing the $5,000 that you need to
[69:48] cover your mortgage, to cover your
[69:50] credit card bill, that you can pay these
[69:52] bills with Strike, you're using your
[69:54] line of credit. And then let's go to
[69:55] month two. You're just smash buying
[69:58] Bitcoin with your entire income. Okay,
[70:00] now month five.
[70:02] And and again, this is just assuming
[70:04] this is assuming a 50%
[70:07] cagger. So if I if I drag this all the
[70:10] way through, it ends up getting to
[70:12] enough growth where you're just smash
[70:13] buying Bitcoin again. But if it gets
[70:15] into months where you your LTV exceeds
[70:17] 15%, it's like okay, if Bitcoin drops
[70:20] 80% from here, I'll I'll start getting
[70:22] into margin call territory. So what it
[70:24] does is it says, "Okay, we're going to
[70:26] take 45% of our paycheck of our income
[70:29] this month, and we're going to allocate
[70:31] it towards paying down the line of
[70:32] credit. And we're going to take the
[70:33] excess that we have, and we're going to
[70:34] buy Bitcoin. And we're never like
[70:37] Bitcoin can fall 80% and we're totally
[70:40] fine. Like if I go back to the stress
[70:41] test, guys, we're totally fine. Bitcoin
[70:44] can fall as far as it's ever fallen, and
[70:47] you're good."
[70:49] And so this is how I live on Bitcoin.
[70:52] It's an unb- It's guys, like
[70:54] I'm so [ __ ] excited for to give you
[70:57] guys this tool because here's the thing
[70:59] that we all want. What we all want is
[71:01] how do I take all of my work, all my
[71:03] effort, stack as much sats as possible,
[71:06] and find a tool that will lend me the
[71:08] money to actually pay my expenses. And I
[71:12] don't want to take out these 12-month
[71:14] loans. I just want a perpetual loan. A
[71:17] perpetual line of credit.
[71:19] And I I've been trying to explain this
[71:22] to you guys, and I was like, "Fuck it. I
[71:24] have to code up a dashboard for people
[71:27] to input numbers just so they can do the
[71:29] math themselves." Cuz here, you guys can
[71:31] see. Let me take out this this one cuz
[71:32] this is just degenerate leverage unless
[71:34] you've got a huge stack. If you've got
[71:36] hundreds of Bitcoin, you're good. But if
[71:39] you're not, look at how much you
[71:40] outperform on the smart lock. And again,
[71:43] you just have to assume some CAGR. Put
[71:46] it at 30%. I mean, you're you're killing
[71:49] it. You're absolutely killing it. No
[71:52] taxable event.
[71:55] See taxes paid over here on the sell to
[71:57] live?
[71:59] So you end up building over 5 years, you
[72:01] build up a line of credit balance of
[72:03] $48,000.
[72:05] You pay 16 grand of interest, but your
[72:07] net worth has gone from one Bitcoin
[72:11] to
[72:12] over half a million dollars.
[72:15] And so yeah, you can come in here and
[72:17] you can say, "Well, Jack, my family
[72:19] actually makes $15,000 a month." You
[72:21] just type it in. And we spend
[72:25] $10,000 a month. Okay, great. You've got
[72:28] an income to expense ratio of 1.5. The
[72:31] recommendation would be put up just
[72:33] under three Bitcoin, open up a line of
[72:35] credit. I mean, if you have more Bitcoin
[72:36] than that, absolutely do it.
[72:39] And you guys can click on this tool and
[72:40] see the graphs change.
[72:43] Obviously, if I over-collateralize,
[72:47] that means my LTV is going to be even
[72:48] healthier, and I'll end up with way more
[72:50] Bitcoin. But let's just put this, let's
[72:52] put this at 30% you're making your
[72:55] family's making 15 grand a month, you're
[72:56] spending 10 of it to live,
[72:59] and you've got 2.9 Bitcoin to put up. By
[73:01] the way, this line of credit is for
[73:03] businesses and for individuals. So, if
[73:06] you're a business and you want to just
[73:07] collateralize your business and your
[73:09] balance sheet on Bitcoin and pay off all
[73:11] your expenses with line of credit,
[73:12] Strike has bill pay, guys. We have bill
[73:15] pay and direct deposit. So, you have
[73:17] everything you need to hack the system.
[73:20] You're your own MicroStrategy.
[73:22] Right? So, obviously, if I
[73:24] over-collateralize, I'm always in a good
[73:26] LTV state and I'm I'm stacking so much
[73:30] Bitcoin. I'm never selling Bitcoin. If
[73:32] you were to
[73:34] uh stack with only your surplus and not
[73:36] use smart lock, you'd end up with 9.6
[73:39] Bitcoin over 5 years. If you were to
[73:41] lose use smart lock, you're ending up
[73:42] with like three more full coins. And
[73:46] I've obviously at 50%, 30% CAGR over 5
[73:49] years, Bitcoin is what? 500k or
[73:51] something. So, you ended up with
[73:52] millions of more dollars, right? Now,
[73:55] let's put it at 2.9 and you can see how
[73:57] it changes. And you And you guys can
[73:58] just click through the tool and play
[74:00] with it and input your own numbers. It's
[74:02] pulling in a live Bitcoin price, so I'm
[74:05] not assuming that Bitcoin's at 500k or
[74:08] anything. And you can come and just see
[74:11] and and this
[74:12] at the bottom, you can click and expand
[74:14] how the math works. And I walked you
[74:16] guys through, you know, the the point
[74:18] and how I got to the strategy. So, the
[74:20] whole point of the strategy is
[74:22] I And listen, if you don't think
[74:24] Bitcoin's going to go down 80% and you
[74:26] want to add some leverage, you
[74:27] absolutely can. But, the point of the
[74:28] strategy is Bitcoin's ever go only ever
[74:31] gone down 80% in one bear market. How do
[74:33] I make sure that no matter what
[74:35] throughout what Bitcoin's been through,
[74:37] no matter what version of Bitcoin, like
[74:39] I should be fine. And I'm just going to
[74:40] focus on converting as much of my
[74:43] paycheck and my family's earnings or my
[74:44] business's earnings into Bitcoin. And
[74:47] I'm going to use Strike and what Jack
[74:49] built to finance my life, and I'm going
[74:51] to ultimately short the dollar. I'm
[74:52] going to run on a Bitcoin standard, and
[74:54] look at the wealth this is building,
[74:56] guys. Like, look at the [ __ ] Look at
[74:58] the net worth. You're talking about like
[75:00] over 5 years making millions of dollars
[75:03] just hoarding Bitcoin, trusting the
[75:05] process, shorting fiat.
[75:08] I mean, this can change people's lives.
[75:11] There's just never been a tool that
[75:13] makes Bitcoin credit perpetual like
[75:16] this, like a consumer line of credit
[75:18] that you can live on. Like, there's
[75:19] never All these like 12-month DeFi
[75:22] variable rate like um wrapped Bitcoin
[75:25] [ __ ] Like, no, I want people to
[75:28] live on a Bitcoin standard. This is what
[75:30] I've This is how I live.
[75:34] Isn't this unbelievable? Hopefully, you
[75:36] guys are understanding this enough to
[75:39] give me feedback tonight so that I can
[75:42] so that I can uh
[75:44] record a really good video tomorrow for
[75:47] the public, and I'll post it on Twitter,
[75:50] and I'll walk everyone through what we
[75:51] just built. I think this is the coolest
[75:53] thing I've ever built, by far. Cuz
[75:56] anyone that grasps this idea,
[75:58] I mean, it's mind-blowing.
[76:00] You can fully build you fully live your
[76:02] life on a Bitcoin standard. And let me
[76:05] pull up um Hold on.
[76:08] Like, people talk about
[76:09] hyperbitcoinization and stuff,
[76:12] and like, listen, no one more than me or
[76:15] me as much as anyone else wants to be
[76:17] able to just not touch fiat at all.
[76:20] That's just not the world we live in
[76:21] right now. And for the world we live in
[76:23] right now, like, this is unbelievable. I
[76:25] get to speculatively attack the dollar
[76:27] like
[76:29] it's crazy.
[76:31] Um
[76:32] so, hold on. Let me uh pull up really
[76:35] quickly here
[76:37] uh how else the line of credit works.
[76:40] Sorry, give me 2 seconds.
[76:43] Um
[76:44] yeah, so
[76:46] >> [snorts]
[76:48] >> here. Um
[76:51] I'm going to make sure I'm not sharing
[76:53] any trade secrets. This is our internal
[76:55] Figma files. Sorry to my team if I'm
[76:58] sharing too many trade secrets, but um
[77:01] just so you guys know, uh I should have
[77:03] put this in my own slides, but um like
[77:06] you can pay your bills with your line of
[77:07] credit. So, if you guys don't know,
[77:09] Strike has bill pay. So, like how do I
[77:11] live my life on the line of credit?
[77:13] Well, my line of credit the month just
[77:15] ended, I owed my HOA payment, I owed my
[77:18] credit card bill, I owed my electricity
[77:20] bill, and I paid it with my line of
[77:22] credit. So, the bills came into Strike
[77:24] and it just pulled money and Strike just
[77:26] just paid it with the cash in my line of
[77:27] credit. And then my paychecks will come
[77:29] in and depending on what the LTV is,
[77:32] obviously if Bitcoin drops to 40k, I'll
[77:35] need to use some of my paycheck and help
[77:37] pay down the line of credit to get into
[77:39] a healthy LTV state to get around that
[77:41] 15% number. If Bitcoin remains at 70k or
[77:44] it gets to 75k, my entire paycheck is
[77:47] going to smash buy Bitcoin.
[77:49] And I'm just living my life on and
[77:52] obviously I'm smashing buying Bitcoin,
[77:54] Bitcoin's growing, it means my LTV's
[77:56] getting healthier, my line of credit can
[77:58] expand. Are you guys following what I'm
[78:00] putting down here? Like this tool is
[78:02] incredible, guys.
[78:04] By the way, I can buy Bitcoin with my
[78:06] line of credit, too.
[78:08] So, like if Bitcoin goes up a lot,
[78:10] you're like, "Wow, my LTV's at 4%. I
[78:12] might as well turn on a DCA." You can
[78:14] pay people with your line of credit on
[78:15] Strike. You can pay bills with your line
[78:17] of credit. You can buy Bitcoin with your
[78:19] line of credit. You can do anything You
[78:21] can withdraw cash with your line of
[78:22] credit. It's a payment method.
[78:25] It's like It's like a Bitcoiner's dream.
[78:27] It's like Bitcoin on steroids. Look at
[78:29] this stuff, guys. It's crazy. You only
[78:32] pay interest on what you use. So, if you
[78:35] have a month where like, "Hey, like me
[78:37] and the family, we didn't spend that
[78:38] much." You don't get charged for it.
[78:41] It's all good.
[78:43] You know what I'm saying?
[78:45] This is like this is it. Like, I've been
[78:47] working my whole career for this
[78:49] product.
[78:50] It's this product and then on top of
[78:52] this, once we
[78:54] um
[78:55] once we launch our yield on cash, then
[78:57] any like excess cash that you do feel
[78:59] like you need to save for the people
[79:00] that feel like they need cash. I mean,
[79:02] with this strategy, I don't know why you
[79:04] would hold cash.
[79:05] I mean, then we're like the most
[79:06] powerful financial account in the world.
[79:09] How insane is this?
[79:12] Anyways,
[79:14] I'm so excited. This is
[79:16] liveonbitcoin.jackmallers.com
[79:20] and it's password protected right now,
[79:22] but I will lift the password tomorrow
[79:26] and uh we'll announce this. We'll roll
[79:28] it out. Um okay, I do have to share some
[79:31] news with you guys and then I got to go
[79:33] cuz it's 6:21.
[79:35] Um
[79:36] [ __ ] I forgot we were going to have
[79:37] Q&A. Damn it, I totally botched that.
[79:41] [ __ ]
[79:43] Um
[79:44] Okay, well, anyways, we're going to roll
[79:46] this out only to a few states at a time
[79:49] in the beginning to make sure it's
[79:50] perfect. So, you'll hear about how we're
[79:52] going to do that tomorrow. I know it's
[79:54] going to piss a lot of you off. You're
[79:55] going to be like, "God damn it, I'm not
[79:57] included in the initial roll out." It's
[79:59] fine. We're going to turn it on as soon
[80:01] as we feel comfortable, we're going to
[80:02] turn it on. I just want it to be
[80:04] perfect. It's It's a one-of-one. No
[80:06] one's ever built a product like this.
[80:08] It's It's so important and precious to
[80:11] me. I just want to make sure it's right.
[80:14] So, we're going to roll it out. I'll
[80:15] tell you guys what states have access to
[80:17] it starting tomorrow. Honestly, if you
[80:19] check your apps, you might have gotten
[80:21] it today.
[80:23] And I'll unleash my tool. I'll walk
[80:25] everyone through how I use it and how to
[80:26] use it and we'll go from there. The
[80:29] other thing about Oh, damn.
[80:33] Ah, [ __ ] I'm I'm botching this. I'm
[80:35] running out of time. The other thing
[80:38] about
[80:40] um hold on.
[80:43] about
[80:47] [ __ ]
[80:51] about this week for Strike Oh, damn. You
[80:53] can't You can only kind of see it. We
[80:55] got our BitLicense, guys.
[80:57] We got our BitLicense. Strike is
[80:59] officially BitLicensed.
[81:01] Um you will see this announcement. This
[81:02] announcement needs all sorts of
[81:04] approvals to actually be hit the press.
[81:08] So, you'll see this come from me
[81:09] probably this week. But, we did get
[81:12] approved for our BitLicense and we will
[81:14] begin serving New Yorkers this week. So,
[81:17] if you're in New York, don't ruin my
[81:19] announcement and go running around the
[81:21] internet and spoiling my announcement.
[81:24] I've been working on this license for
[81:25] almost 4 years.
[81:27] But, if you're in New York
[81:29] check check Strike. See if you can
[81:31] download it. Today's your lucky day. We
[81:34] finally got it. Uh this I Strike New
[81:37] York shirt, I love New York shirt, uh we
[81:40] are hosting a party at PubKey later this
[81:44] month and this is some of the merch that
[81:46] we'll have handed out to you guys. So,
[81:48] I'll keep you posted on when I'm coming
[81:49] down in New York. Um it'll be drinks on
[81:52] us. Uh just want to give you guys a hug.
[81:55] It's been a long time coming that we've
[81:56] wanted to serve New Yorkers and uh over
[81:58] the next month New Yorkers should get
[82:00] our full suite of products. So, we're
[82:01] very, very excited about that. Uh
[82:04] finally got our BitLicense. Um
[82:07] Okay.
[82:08] On 21
[82:09] um
[82:10] Oh, damn. Here we go. On 21 really
[82:12] quick, uh I just want to say something.
[82:14] So, for people that say
[82:16] you know, there are people that say hey
[82:18] Jack, like why aren't you giving us any
[82:20] updates? Why aren't you giving us any
[82:21] announcements? Why aren't you letting us
[82:23] know what's going on? Why aren't you
[82:24] doing stock stock buyback programs? Why
[82:26] aren't you doing stuff? Um some people
[82:29] are disingenuous when they say that and
[82:31] they just want to be mad at me and I
[82:32] I've already said I totally get that.
[82:34] There's so many things that I think
[82:36] Tether, SoftBank, myself, the whole team
[82:38] that we would have done differently. Um
[82:39] this has been the furthest from easy,
[82:41] obviously. Um it's been a journey. And
[82:44] so I get that. You guys have, you know,
[82:46] you want to be mad at me, you have every
[82:47] right. I own that. I accept that. Um
[82:50] if you're genuinely curious about the
[82:51] answer, um I've talked about this before
[82:54] and I just want to you you guys be able
[82:56] to look this up and understand um why.
[82:58] I'm not trying to hold information. I'm
[83:01] not making a conscious decision to be
[83:03] secretive. Um there's something called
[83:06] uh nonpublic information, NPI.
[83:10] So if I have access to So when I say
[83:12] we're working on operating company
[83:14] stuff, we're we're we're potentially
[83:16] looking at some deals that that we could
[83:17] do. When I say things like that, that
[83:20] means I might have access to information
[83:22] that other people don't. And if that's
[83:25] the case, I have to be extremely
[83:27] careful. I can't do a stock buyback
[83:29] program. I can't talk to you guys about
[83:32] our strategy or communicate expected
[83:35] deadlines and tell you guys when exactly
[83:37] you should expect things because not
[83:39] only will I get in trouble and the
[83:40] business will get in trouble, but then
[83:42] ultimately what we all want, which is 21
[83:45] to be the Bitcoin company, the public
[83:46] Bitcoin equity, that will never happen.
[83:49] And so it I I've mentioned it before and
[83:51] for people that genuinely want to know
[83:54] the answer of why my communication style
[83:56] has been the way it is cuz I mean, I
[83:58] pride myself on transparency, on
[84:00] honesty, on being as accessible and
[84:02] approachable as a public company CEO as
[84:04] you'll ever find. I don't think there's
[84:06] any uh like I don't think Brian
[84:07] Armstrong's running podcasts like this.
[84:10] Which I don't know, maybe that's a bad
[84:11] or good thing. I don't know. This is
[84:12] just who I am. And I think it's
[84:13] important. I think it's a
[84:15] I think it's it's part of Bitcoin that
[84:18] uh guys like me can exist.
[84:20] And so uh that's why. That's why. So, um
[84:24] that's I can talk about it more next
[84:26] week. I obviously didn't leave us any
[84:27] time for Q&A.
[84:29] But that's why. And I wanted for people
[84:31] that
[84:32] actually
[84:34] wanted to know the answer.
[84:35] That is why. For people that just want
[84:38] to be mad at me and don't accept that
[84:40] answer, I also get that, too. I don't
[84:42] blame you. No problem. I own that. I own
[84:44] that. Proof of work is all that matters
[84:46] at the end of the day.
[84:47] We'll either build a great company or we
[84:49] won't. And in the meantime, if if you're
[84:52] upset, um
[84:55] that's part of being the CEO. Direct
[84:56] your bullets
[84:58] this way.
[84:59] All right, I left us zero time for Q&A.
[85:02] I [ __ ] that up. My bad. I was just
[85:05] running the line of credit explanation
[85:07] until I had to go
[85:09] and I totally forgot about Q&A. So,
[85:11] Dylan documented it all. I'm looking at
[85:14] it. Um we'll just run it back next week
[85:17] or maybe I can like record an ad hoc and
[85:19] upload it to YouTube separately at some
[85:22] point in the week, but uh
[85:24] give me feedback on the line of credit.
[85:26] Give me feedback on the show. You'll
[85:27] hear from me hopefully tomorrow in a
[85:30] more professional way on the line of
[85:31] credit. I'll give you guys my tool and
[85:33] show you guys how exactly to live on a
[85:35] Bitcoin standard, to use Bitcoin credit
[85:38] products. Again, I'd never advocate for
[85:40] people to use it irresponsibly. It is a
[85:42] loan. It is credit. Of course there's
[85:44] risk. This is not financial advice. You
[85:46] know, the people that accuse me of being
[85:48] an immoral [ __ ] or a criminal, that's
[85:50] never the case. Um but I think that this
[85:52] tool can change your business, change
[85:54] your life, change your family like it
[85:55] has changed mine. I think it's the
[85:57] coolest thing I've ever built.
[85:58] So, with that,
[86:01] I'm out of here. I got to run. My
[86:02] girlfriend's going to kill me.
[86:04] Um I love you guys. And I'll I'll see
[86:07] you next week. I mean, we're going to
[86:09] announce we've got our BitLicense and
[86:11] our line of credit products. Huge week
[86:13] for Strike. So proud of the team. So,
[86:15] I'm sure you'll hear from me plenty this
[86:17] week. So, talk then. Peace and love.
[86:20] Take care.