Why Are Bitcoin & AI Stocks CRASHING?!

[0:00] Here's the reality. We are in still the
[0:02] second or third inning of what will be a
[0:04] long buildout. Artificial intelligence
[0:06] is the most important thing to happen to
[0:09] the human race from the basis of making
[0:12] things cost less and solving some of the
[0:14] world's problems that have been with us
[0:16] for a long time. Turning longevity into
[0:18] something that's parabolic. Turning the
[0:20] market into something that's parabolic.
[0:22] most importantly allowing
[0:23] democratization of education,
[0:25] democratization of people to have as
[0:27] much information as the people I started
[0:29] at the beginning that say this always
[0:31] ends badly. And this has been the thing.
[0:33] And so what's going on guys? Today we
[0:35] got a great conversation with Jordy
[0:36] Visser. He's an extremely successful
[0:38] macro hedge fund manager. And now he's
[0:40] here to explain to us what's going on
[0:42] with the AI trade, which names he likes,
[0:44] which ones he doesn't. Is he worried
[0:45] about the big memory shortage? Is the AI
[0:48] trade over or not? What's it mean for
[0:50] your portfolio? We talk about the
[0:51] debasement capitulation and what's going
[0:53] on with Bitcoin, gold, silver, and then
[0:55] of course we get into SpaceX and what's
[0:57] going on with Anthropic and Claude and
[0:59] OpenAI and Gemini and Google and many
[1:01] other names. This conversation is going
[1:03] all over the place, but it is ultimately
[1:05] Jordy and I trying to figure out what
[1:07] the heck's going on in the world and
[1:08] what does it mean for his portfolio, my
[1:09] portfolio, and yours. Here's my latest
[1:11] conversation with Jordy Visser. All
[1:13] right, Jordy, the AI trade seems like
[1:15] it's over. Everything's going down.
[1:17] People are very upset. Should we just
[1:19] pack it up and go home? What what
[1:21] exactly is going on here?
[1:23] >> Yeah, it was a a freakout week. Um
[1:27] ending or at least Micron is changing
[1:30] the tone. Um, it's very funny
[1:34] spending your time and your life talking
[1:36] to people about a particular trade and
[1:40] uh the people that I've known in the
[1:41] industry a long time like myself. So
[1:45] people like me, they just know that
[1:47] number one, things like this don't end
[1:49] well in their head. Even though that may
[1:51] not be the case, they in their head they
[1:53] know it. So they believe that all retail
[1:56] traders and all people that have been
[1:57] riding momentum will eventually get
[1:59] blown up. I see the leverage. I see all
[2:01] of this stuff. So this week when SKHX in
[2:05] particular in the Korean market was
[2:06] effectively limit down
[2:09] every single like overnight podcast,
[2:12] everything in X was it's here. This is
[2:14] going to be a crash. You're going to
[2:16] watch what happens. Once Micron's done,
[2:18] everything will go down. And because I
[2:20] have a thematic portfolio with 100
[2:21] names, 100 names is a lot of AI names.
[2:24] It crosses from chemicals to industrials
[2:26] to um drug companies to uh you know
[2:31] semiconductor and a whole bunch more. So
[2:34] it was down big on one day
[2:37] and everyone was freaking out and people
[2:39] reached out. So on Tuesday I did a video
[2:41] and I basically just said to to people
[2:45] here's the reality. Um, we are in still
[2:48] the second or third inning of what will
[2:50] be a long buildout. And I'm going to say
[2:52] it to everyone who listens to us every
[2:54] week.
[2:55] Artificial intelligence is the most
[2:57] important thing to happen to the human
[2:59] race from the basis of making things
[3:03] cost less and solving some of the
[3:05] world's problems that have been with us
[3:06] for a long time. Turning longevity into
[3:08] something that's parabolic. Turning the
[3:10] market into something that's parabolic.
[3:12] Most importantly, allowing
[3:14] democratization of education.
[3:16] democratization of people to have as
[3:18] much information as the people I started
[3:20] at the beginning that say this always
[3:22] ends badly and this has been the thing
[3:24] and so Micron comes out obviously the AI
[3:27] trade is not over um I will do a lot on
[3:30] the video this weekend to just show the
[3:32] quotes they've got long-term commitments
[3:35] from so many different people now
[3:37] they're supply and demand will be out of
[3:39] balance until 2028 that doesn't mean
[3:41] that's definitely going to happen but
[3:43] the reality is the AI portfolio video
[3:46] and the way that things moved. I'm going
[3:48] to say it again and again. The world
[3:50] changed in October of last year or
[3:52] November of last year when Opus 4.5 came
[3:55] out. We've gone from 4.5 to 4.6 and 4.7
[3:58] to 4.0 to Mythos to Fable 5 to the
[4:01] government basically taking control of
[4:04] it and GPT 5.5 is out. The AI trade is
[4:07] doing excellent and the second half of
[4:09] the year you will continue to see
[4:11] strength.
[4:11] >> So there are I'm going to call it
[4:13] closing the gap. There are two things
[4:15] that I have heard this past week that I
[4:17] need to come and talk to you about. You
[4:18] got to tell me whether these make sense
[4:20] or not. The first one, let's start with
[4:22] is Micron. So my understanding is that
[4:25] Micron's last quarter that they just
[4:27] reported, they did more in revenue than
[4:30] Nvidia did when Nvidia was a $4 billion
[4:33] company. Four trillion four trillion
[4:35] dollar company. Sorry, you know, the
[4:36] numbers are getting so big here. B,
[4:37] what's the difference?
[4:38] >> Um, a $4 trillion company. Today, Micron
[4:41] is not a $4 trillion company. And so is
[4:44] it as simple as just like that gap
[4:46] closes and Micron's going to be a $4
[4:47] trillion company?
[4:50] >> Um if it were only that easy, but I will
[4:54] say this. Um it will be very surprising
[4:57] if they don't get up to two trillion
[4:59] over the course of the next year. Here's
[5:02] the thing about it. Um and again, I love
[5:04] doing these weekly videos because there
[5:06] are certain things that just stand out.
[5:08] the the one I did on on Tuesday was
[5:11] meant to go through this concept that
[5:12] I'm really trying to do to help people
[5:14] which is there's noise which is this is
[5:16] a bubble. So because the agentic world
[5:21] started the amount of memory that was
[5:23] needed was far different than any time
[5:24] in history and it was the gateway. So it
[5:26] was literally and I and I I can the only
[5:29] analogy I can use is we have a certain
[5:32] amount of food on the planet. We've
[5:34] always heard that we could run out of it
[5:35] that prices could go up. You know what
[5:38] would cause it to really be in trouble
[5:40] and make the prices go up dramatically
[5:42] is if all of a sudden there was an extra
[5:44] 4 billion people on the planet tomorrow.
[5:47] That's what happened with memory. The
[5:49] amount of memory that is needed because
[5:51] of AI agents which need to think about
[5:54] the past and this and go through it and
[5:56] connect changed overnight. And we have
[5:59] another 5 to 10 years of this because
[6:01] humanoids need even more. Autonomous
[6:04] vehicles need even more. That is and
[6:06] they talked about this. Micron talked
[6:08] about it on the earnings call. You can't
[6:10] have something without coming up with
[6:12] the correct analogy. So I just want
[6:14] everyone to hear it. If 4 billion people
[6:16] entered the planet today and we went up
[6:18] by 50% the amount of people, we wouldn't
[6:20] have enough food. You prices would go up
[6:23] dramatically. So inflation doesn't
[6:25] always come from speculation and from
[6:27] money and all this stuff. Sometime it
[6:29] comes from oh my god we have to feed all
[6:32] of this 4 billion people. And in the
[6:34] case of digital agents, the food I've
[6:36] said it before, it's compute and compute
[6:39] is chips and energy.
[6:40] >> So when you look at these kind of
[6:42] limiting factors, one thing that you've
[6:43] said to me is that maybe the pace we're
[6:45] growing, even though it feels like we've
[6:47] got a limitation to growth, maybe the
[6:50] right pace to be growing. What do you
[6:52] mean by that?
[6:53] >> So um, and this is what I wanted to make
[6:55] sure people realize from the midcycle
[6:58] slowdown because when you say something
[6:59] like midcycle slowdown, everyone's like,
[7:01] should I get out? And the answer is no.
[7:02] you should just expect it to not be as
[7:04] easy. Um,
[7:06] Micron's not going to be growing their
[7:08] earnings at the pace they did from the
[7:10] fourth quarter of last year to the
[7:12] second quarter of this year. When you
[7:13] look at the numbers and when I show you
[7:15] the income numbers, they are massive to
[7:19] change. They did more in the first two
[7:21] quarters of this year than I think the
[7:23] last 10 years combined. So, is that is
[7:27] that going to continue? No, it's not.
[7:29] Like, will they grow? Yeah. But if
[7:31] you're only growing at 50% from 400%,
[7:35] that's the second derivative kicking in.
[7:36] You're slowing down. Yeah. So, it's not
[7:39] a down trade. It's just a a slowdown.
[7:42] So, I think the this has mainly been
[7:45] because of price increases and because
[7:47] there's a bottleneck. They are spending
[7:49] money on capex to produce more. They
[7:52] just can't make enough anymore to
[7:54] satisfy all the demand that's there. So,
[7:56] demand went up too fast. A lot of this
[7:58] is for future use. And so, are we going
[8:01] to need all of them? No. But like I
[8:03] said, humanoids are coming and there's
[8:04] other things coming. So, if people doubt
[8:05] it, they're making a huge mistake. In no
[8:08] way, shape, or form is Micron a short.
[8:09] For traders who want to make it go
[8:11] from,300 to,00 be my guest. I got out
[8:14] way too early. So, you're talking to
[8:16] someone who didn't expect the stock to
[8:18] just continue to go like this. But part
[8:20] of the reason I got out is because
[8:21] Marll, which is another memory play in a
[8:24] different way that benefits from the
[8:26] fact that memory shortage is there. I
[8:28] like that. So the pace thing you're
[8:30] mentioning and what I say to people,
[8:32] Taiwan Semi is preventing us from
[8:34] growing too fast. If we had enough
[8:36] memory right now, I think the
[8:38] capabilities would be going so fast that
[8:40] it would leave a lot of workers in the
[8:42] dust. So sometimes government's job is
[8:44] not to stop things from happening. It's
[8:46] to slow things. Sometimes the
[8:48] bottlenecks of the physical world
[8:50] actually end up being something good
[8:52] because it keeps things in check. And I
[8:53] just want to remind people for all the
[8:55] things we're talking about in AI, the
[8:57] S&P 500 as of when I came in here with
[8:59] you is up less than 8% in the first half
[9:02] of the year. That number might sound
[9:05] okay. That is not a big number for all
[9:07] of this bubble talk and enthusiasm. The
[9:09] hyperscalers are horrible. Like this
[9:11] month, you've got record falls. I think
[9:12] Microsoft I think Microsoft is having
[9:15] its worst month since 2008. The Niki is
[9:19] up 45 or 48%. The Cosby is up over 100%.
[9:24] Taiwan is up over 50%. So the US is
[9:28] actually not benefiting as much. And
[9:30] this is this benchmark arbitrage thing
[9:32] that I talked about which is this. The
[9:34] receivers are getting most of the money.
[9:36] Well, the problem is in Taiwan and in
[9:39] Korea, the receivers are higher weight
[9:40] in the index. Same thing in Japan. In
[9:42] the US, the hyperscalers are the higher
[9:44] weight. That's why the index is having a
[9:46] hard time. That's why we do this show to
[9:47] talk about the things that are going.
[9:49] The slowing of the pace is actually a
[9:51] good thing because I think too fast
[9:52] would be worse for the worker world.
[9:54] >> The other close the gap is Intel and
[9:57] TSMC.
[10:01] >> Yeah, this is uh uh an interesting story
[10:04] and again we've reached a point where
[10:06] some people have to listen to I think
[10:08] Scott Besson had a speech at the uh was
[10:12] it at the New York athletic uh economic
[10:15] club.
[10:15] >> Okay. It's a really important speech for
[10:18] people to to go read or just go through
[10:20] the transcript or upload it into an LLM.
[10:23] And the reason is because he talks about
[10:26] the strategic nature of AI. He talks
[10:30] about needing to have the industrial
[10:32] capacity that we've been in this place
[10:35] where we've been over consuming for a
[10:37] long period of time and now we need to
[10:39] be producing what we need and we cannot
[10:41] be dependent on the supply chains of the
[10:43] world. Now, we learned this through the
[10:45] tariffs last year. One of the good
[10:46] things that the tariffs did last year
[10:48] for everyone who just wants to be
[10:49] political is we learned that um we're a
[10:52] little bit screwed on the infrastructure
[10:54] side of AI. We don't have the rare earth
[10:56] we need. There's a lot of things that we
[10:58] don't have everything of and we need to
[11:00] build that capacity which is why Intel
[11:02] fits in well with Taiwan Semi because if
[11:05] you would have listened to the
[11:06] conversation and when the government
[11:08] made a strategic investment into Intel
[11:11] they were basically saying okay we have
[11:13] to support this company because we need
[11:14] this we need to invest in it we need to
[11:18] have the CPUs we can't have the foundry
[11:20] the biggest one of the biggest
[11:21] foundaries in the world one of the three
[11:23] biggest in the US and not be running at
[11:26] full throttle
[11:27] We need a terra fab. We need all this.
[11:29] So Besson really talked about the fact
[11:31] that this is a strategic need. Now in
[11:34] Micron's
[11:36] earnings call, the CEO specifically said
[11:40] memory is a strategic asset. So whatever
[11:44] people's view is of AI, they think it's
[11:46] a bubble. The governments of the world
[11:48] are in a massive race for military
[11:52] dominance, for mythos versus deepseek.
[11:55] Deepseek just had a funding round. Only
[11:58] one investor got voting rights. That
[12:00] would be the Chinese government. So,
[12:03] we're just in this thing of AI is a
[12:05] military asset and they're in there
[12:07] going through it. And you want to invest
[12:09] in the things that are going to build
[12:11] the AI, maybe not as so much as the
[12:13] people that are going to monetize the
[12:14] models.
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[13:11] Should the government just print
[13:15] trillion dollars and go hire all of the
[13:19] top AI uh scientists and just say sit
[13:22] here and beat the private companies?
[13:26] >> I honestly don't think anyone can catch
[13:29] up to what's going on. I think this has
[13:31] become something um
[13:35] Google had two very senior people leave
[13:37] this week. I don't know if I said it
[13:39] with you or if I said it on on on my my
[13:43] YouTube, but I made a comment that a lot
[13:46] of people reached out on and I said
[13:48] Google's not a player in this anymore
[13:49] for me. Um,
[13:52] two months ago, yeah, two months ago,
[13:56] I would say Claude was about 35% of my
[14:00] usage. Chat GPT was probably about 25
[14:05] and then Google was probably about 20.
[14:07] And then Grock would be another one and
[14:09] perplexity would be another. What has
[14:11] happened now is that Chachi PT and
[14:14] Claude are effectively 90% of my usage.
[14:18] The other three have become less
[14:22] important to me.
[14:24] >> Why?
[14:26] >> Because Gemini I Gemini's model is
[14:30] nowhere near as good as ChatBT 5.5 or
[14:33] Opus 4.8. Plain and simple. They haven't
[14:35] released a new thing in a long time.
[14:37] They're behind. They're losing quality
[14:40] people. And I think part of the reason
[14:41] is because they have one disruption that
[14:44] those two companies don't have.
[14:45] Actually, they have many. First of all,
[14:47] Google has about 200,000 employees.
[14:50] They're $3 trillion.
[14:52] Anthropic is what$ 1.5 trillion in the
[14:55] private market. They have less than
[14:57] 5,000 employees. So if you're a person
[15:01] who cares about working with the best
[15:03] models, if you care about working on the
[15:05] best things, you've got that. Google has
[15:07] to work on Google Cloud. They have to
[15:09] make sure that workspace is working and
[15:11] all these other things. So they actually
[15:14] are distracted to some degree because
[15:15] they have to keep the revenue focused on
[15:18] these other products and anthropic and
[15:21] open AI are just trying to get
[15:23] enterprises to adopt. So, I think we've
[15:25] reached a point that because of the
[15:28] belief of recursive self-improvement,
[15:30] that if you are number three, which is
[15:32] where Gemini is, they're number three.
[15:34] Number three with open source up with
[15:37] the other two is a very dangerous
[15:39] position. So, I would never say go out
[15:41] and short Google for it to go down
[15:44] because they're cashri. They're in
[15:46] everyone's life and they're not going
[15:47] anywhere. But they're they're seem to be
[15:51] entering into the same problem or a
[15:53] different variety that Meta, Microsoft,
[15:55] and even Amazon have been in for at
[15:56] least a while, which is these companies
[15:58] have not done well. Their multiples were
[16:00] high. They're overowned by everyone. And
[16:02] they've kind of fallen into an Nvidia
[16:04] thing where Nvidia is going through
[16:05] multiple compression. Google is too. So
[16:07] Gemini is just not there for me. And
[16:08] Nano Banana was the main reason. And I
[16:11] didn't even put this into context. Did
[16:13] you use Nano Banana?
[16:14] >> I did. Okay. Okay.
[16:15] >> Part of it was because of the cool name
[16:17] and then part of it was so for me Nano
[16:19] Banana obviously the image generation
[16:20] was supposed to be like it's you know
[16:22] best feature or whatever. Um I think out
[16:24] of habit I will still go sometimes to uh
[16:27] to Gemini and use uh for image
[16:30] generation but what I find is that um
[16:33] Chad GBT has become better you know it
[16:37] is at least in my mind it's a it's a
[16:39] jump ball now 50/50 whether I go to
[16:41] Gemini or Chad GBT and I don't think I
[16:43] have a great heristic. So it's like
[16:45] Gemini definitely lost the like pole
[16:47] position on image generation for me and
[16:49] so now they share it with Chachi.
[16:51] >> So I I've said this before um Gemini is
[16:55] very medicinal to me. It's literally
[16:57] like medicine. It's very academic. I
[16:59] didn't like school. So I never really
[17:00] liked going to Gemini. I don't like the
[17:03] the way it feels. I use it as my fact
[17:05] checker. I used to use it for Nano
[17:07] Banana as well. And I used to rave about
[17:09] Nano Banana. But then when GPT 5.5 came
[17:12] out, that all changed.
[17:14] >> And I find the images are faster and I
[17:17] find they're better in using them there.
[17:20] And so I' I don't know where Gemini is
[17:22] going to fit in, but if they don't get
[17:24] another model out soon, I would not be
[17:27] surprised to see more defections. And by
[17:29] the way, these were not minor people
[17:31] that left Google. This is some of this
[17:34] is about science as well. And I think
[17:36] Demisabis,
[17:38] Nobel Prize winner,
[17:40] he's not Google, he's DeepMind. These
[17:42] were DeepMind people. Like, it's a
[17:44] little bit worrisome to me that people
[17:45] are leaving. And I'm sure they got paid
[17:48] a billion dollars uh to go to Anthropic.
[17:50] These guys have the money, they have the
[17:52] growth, they have the appeal at this
[17:54] point, and this is what happens when
[17:56] you're number three and there's open
[17:57] source models that are have better
[17:58] models than you do.
[17:59] >> I would love to know how these top
[18:02] people are getting recruited right now.
[18:03] Is it like super Russian spy? Like see
[18:06] him at a coffee shop, slip him a note,
[18:09] or is it like just send him a a LinkedIn
[18:11] request? I mean, you know, I mean,
[18:12] because it's not like, hey, we're trying
[18:14] to recruit a marketing associate, right?
[18:15] I mean, we're talking about in some
[18:16] cases this is a billion dollar
[18:19] compensation plan.
[18:20] >> And so, we heard, you know, Zuck was
[18:22] personally reaching out to people or
[18:24] whatever. Okay. But like
[18:26] >> is anthropic like what what's the game
[18:28] here? It would be fascinating to
[18:29] understand
[18:30] >> and I'm sure at some point we will
[18:32] especially if so I don't want people to
[18:35] think I I don't know how open AI and
[18:39] anthropic
[18:41] are going to be able to monetize every
[18:43] like I'm still very worried about the
[18:46] revenue situation relative to the capex.
[18:49] I think this is very challenging as a
[18:52] user in thinking about how this is going
[18:54] to work out for everyone. So, I I'm I'm
[18:57] not so sure that the revenue growth for
[19:00] these companies is going to be as easy
[19:03] as what the charts suggest.
[19:06] I know everything's parabolic right now.
[19:08] I know the reasons why everyone jumped
[19:10] in. I know that token maxing helped
[19:12] them, but now I think everyone is
[19:14] looking at this going, how do we reduce
[19:16] the cost? And I think everyone's going
[19:19] to figure out a way to reduce the cost
[19:20] quickly. And so, there might be I called
[19:22] this a capex air pocket. I still believe
[19:25] for the next three to six months, even
[19:27] with the Micron news, it doesn't change
[19:29] the fact that the rate of change and the
[19:31] expectations on the positioning is going
[19:33] to go through a little bit of a shakeout
[19:35] for a while.
[19:36] >> There was a article written about
[19:38] Anthropic this past week and um I'm just
[19:41] going to read you a couple data points
[19:42] from it. Uh Anthropic stickiness shows
[19:44] in three data points. Uh it's got a net
[19:47] dollar retention of over 500%.
[19:49] Nine of the Fortune 10 are customers and
[19:53] a sales cycle can sign two 8 figure USD
[19:57] contracts in a single meeting. Okay. On
[20:00] valuation, the 2026 series G was a $380
[20:05] billion post money. But then if you fast
[20:08] forward to um the series H which was 3
[20:12] months later they went from $380 billion
[20:15] to $965 billion post money valuation. So
[20:20] you know approximately a 3x but here was
[20:23] the kicker. Anthropic reportedly has
[20:26] turned cash flow positive with a free
[20:29] cash flow margin of 15 to 20% and a
[20:31] gross margin of 60 to 70%. Now, I don't
[20:36] know if that's true or not.
[20:37] >> Mhm.
[20:38] >> But if Anthropic is throwing off 15%
[20:40] free cash flow, growing at the pace that
[20:43] they are reportedly growing at the size
[20:46] >> Mhm.
[20:47] >> guys doing, you know, 1020 billion
[20:50] dollars of free cash flow already. Like
[20:53] they started what, four years ago, five
[20:55] years ago?
[20:55] >> Yep.
[20:56] >> To do that, I only know of one company
[20:59] in the world who's ever done this before
[21:00] and that's Tether.
[21:01] >> But Tether isn't growing that much,
[21:03] right? because they're growing but it's
[21:04] just not at this rate like this. So you
[21:07] look at this and you say
[21:09] is anthropic undervalued
[21:12] >> uh based on the last 6 months you can
[21:16] put whatever valuation you want. This is
[21:18] different than SpaceX. Um this is
[21:21] actually something where you can say and
[21:22] and I I want have
[21:25] >> shots fired.
[21:27] I again I'm I'm I'm not a value investor
[21:30] and I'm not here to to go through it but
[21:33] again when when when I get asked the
[21:35] question and go what do you think of
[21:37] SpaceX and I give an answer you don't
[21:39] believe you don't believe the TAM of
[21:41] space and I go okay I I just I don't
[21:45] understand you know in my head as much
[21:48] as I'm I'm a uh a a futurist and I think
[21:51] about all the world I don't understand
[21:54] how the money in the future fits into a
[21:57] world with Mars and with the moon. So,
[22:00] at some point there's a cut off for me
[22:02] where I'm not really sure what that
[22:04] means. And so, in a public company, I
[22:06] just don't get it. With Anthropic,
[22:08] >> that that might be the point, Jordy.
[22:09] >> Yeah. I And trust me, I'm I'm That's why
[22:12] I stick with the right now with the
[22:13] physical hardware.
[22:14] >> Well, Anthropic though, if you look at
[22:16] it, let's just say it's doing 20
[22:18] billion. I don't like to do public math,
[22:19] but that's like 50 times,
[22:21] >> you know, free cash flow.
[22:23] >> Yep.
[22:25] at the pace at which they're growing.
[22:27] They're adding, you know, they're
[22:28] growing 25 30% month over month. Like
[22:30] that doesn't seem crazy to me at all.
[22:32] Actually, it feels like maybe this thing
[22:34] should be like $2 trillion.
[22:35] >> But again, you if you keep extrapolating
[22:38] things into the future on this, you run
[22:40] into a problem as you get into AGI and
[22:42] you get into RSI. And that's the part
[22:43] like I don't know what it all means when
[22:45] you get to that point. I I I just think
[22:48] people have to keep that in mind like
[22:50] taking the world of the past and saying,
[22:52] "Well, we're going to grow revenues."
[22:53] Okay, great. Where's it coming from?
[22:55] >> Mhm.
[22:56] >> And I can make the argument as to where
[22:58] it's coming from. And I know that for me
[23:00] as a power user, I pay 200 a month. I'm
[23:03] not getting charged for the tokens.
[23:05] >> There's no way they're profitable on
[23:06] you.
[23:06] >> No, there is no way they're profitable
[23:08] on me. And I know that I'm not using the
[23:10] API and I'm not and I'm avoiding
[23:12] OpenClaw for a lot of the work that I
[23:14] would need to do on and I'm just using
[23:15] it in terms of paying the $200.
[23:17] >> Do you get throttled while you're using
[23:19] it on the 200? Not I I don't think I
[23:24] don't think I'm that
[23:27] >> like the velocity isn't there so I don't
[23:29] need to throttle you.
[23:29] >> I'm I'm using it all day long, but it
[23:32] really is
[23:35] I'm I'm doing a lot of brainstorming and
[23:37] I'm filtering things in my head before I
[23:38] go in there and I'm trying to get
[23:39] answers quickly and I work through
[23:41] through things. If people have gotten to
[23:42] know me, you know, I can go a mile a
[23:45] minute speaking and I can pull things
[23:46] out of my head that have been sitting
[23:48] there for weeks. I can go back 10 years.
[23:49] I can remember something. I can do this
[23:51] with people very quickly. But with an
[23:53] LLM, it's very focused. It's like, I
[23:55] have this thought. Let's go through it.
[23:57] It gives me an answer. I go back and
[23:58] forth, back and forth, back and forth,
[23:59] back and forth.
[24:01] >> But if the questions are good and you're
[24:03] and you're good at saying, don't give me
[24:05] a long-winded answer, you actually cut
[24:07] down on your token usage dramatically.
[24:09] Now, when I'm building stuff and I'm
[24:11] going through it,
[24:13] >> that takes more time. That's a lot more
[24:15] code, but I think I'm s succinct in what
[24:18] I want and I think I've already done the
[24:20] prep work on my own. So, I haven't
[24:22] gotten to the point of loops. And this
[24:23] is what I wanted to say to you. And this
[24:25] is the part where I think the most
[24:28] important thing that's happening right
[24:30] now is this concept of loops.
[24:33] And this is where
[24:34] >> agent loops or agentic loops.
[24:36] >> Yeah. So there's been a huge gap between
[24:39] the CI the CEOs of companies loving AI
[24:43] and paying anthropic lots of money and
[24:46] then the employees using it.
[24:48] >> There's been a huge gap. So the surveys
[24:50] all say the same. Like CEOs all love it
[24:53] and say it's going to change their
[24:54] business. Employees
[24:56] aren't so excited. Now I'm not sure it's
[25:00] just because it's going to take their
[25:01] jobs. I actually think they don't know
[25:03] how to use it. Now, if you have a 100
[25:06] employees in a department and two of
[25:08] them are power users, meaning they love
[25:10] it and they're figuring ways to do it.
[25:12] So, people understand what loops are,
[25:15] the agents are figuring stuff out on
[25:18] their own, but they do need the human
[25:19] context and they need to learn
[25:21] everything going on in the business. So,
[25:22] if you're in a marketing area of of
[25:25] CocaCola and there's a 100 employees and
[25:28] two of them are using Claude in a really
[25:30] really good way and the Agentic Loops
[25:33] are being used by those two people and
[25:36] the other 98 are doing something
[25:38] similar, then these people are training
[25:40] their replacements at this point. That's
[25:43] the thing that we're entering into this
[25:44] dangerous point. And this is where the
[25:46] job losses could come much faster. And
[25:48] that's where Anthropic's revenue gains
[25:50] to me are going to have to come from.
[25:51] The total compensation and everything
[25:53] that happens in this country is about
[25:55] $20 trillion a year. If you can get rid
[25:58] of a bunch of employees and right now,
[26:00] so people remember, we are not creating
[26:02] jobs. So yes, the last two months we
[26:04] created a couple hundred thousand or
[26:06] 300,000. Most of them were in the
[26:07] healthcare side, but over the course of
[26:09] the last year, there's almost been no
[26:11] job creation. The reason that matters is
[26:14] because in the history of this market,
[26:16] the way that we got more G nominal GDP
[26:18] was you get more employees every single
[26:20] year. And then in recessions, you don't
[26:22] hire people, you fire them and it goes
[26:24] down. We are growing rapidly without
[26:27] hiring people. So that means the profits
[26:29] are going into the companies because
[26:30] they're actually not firing people at
[26:32] this point. They're just not hiring
[26:33] them. If they get to the point that the
[26:35] loops are there, and this is why people
[26:36] need to pay attention. The agentic loops
[26:38] are not only important for the
[26:39] businesses, but they start to become
[26:41] important for the commerce side because
[26:43] it means people are learning how you're
[26:44] doing stuff on your computer. And then
[26:46] as a consumer, Alexa and Siri and all of
[26:50] those things that we haven't seen work
[26:52] yet, they're going to start to work as
[26:54] part of the next thing, which is the
[26:55] connection of Agentic Loops with Agentic
[26:57] Commerce.
[26:58] >> Did you see the clawed tags?
[27:01] >> Yes. I was listening to a bunch of
[27:02] people talking about a bunch of podcasts
[27:04] on the way here.
[27:04] >> I I feel like that's going to end up
[27:06] being right along with this, right, of
[27:09] you know, if you have a company and you
[27:12] have people who work remotely,
[27:14] >> you do not talk to them
[27:16] >> on the phone, in person, maybe even in
[27:18] meetings a lot. It's it's literally
[27:20] Slack. There are certain people who work
[27:22] at some of our companies who I
[27:24] communicate with 99% through Slack and
[27:29] maybe once a month or something, you
[27:30] know, we do something on the phone or
[27:32] video or I'm in a meeting and they're
[27:34] there, you know, uh, virtually,
[27:35] whatever.
[27:37] But what's the difference whether it's a
[27:38] human or it's AI on the other end if
[27:41] you're talking in Slack and it's doing
[27:43] like that? To me, this is one of these
[27:45] moments where I'm like, I'm gonna I just
[27:47] saw more of the future than I knew two
[27:50] weeks ago, and it feels pretty
[27:52] disruptive.
[27:53] >> Andre Carpathy said, "This is way bigger
[27:55] than you think it is." And I agree. Now,
[27:57] again, I just mentioned loops.
[28:00] You're talking about tags.
[28:03] The main thing people have to understand
[28:04] is all of this changed in November of
[28:07] last year. So when you get to a point
[28:10] where the computers are actually solving
[28:13] stuff, what just happened with open AI
[28:16] and jalapeno
[28:19] an AI chip?
[28:22] So I've mentioned this before, but we
[28:24] solved the vaccine issue during COVID
[28:29] when a vaccine would normally take four
[28:31] years to go from okay, how do we go? It
[28:33] might take more. and it was done and we
[28:35] had the blueprint before a single person
[28:37] died in the United States of America.
[28:39] It's an amazing thing to think that AI
[28:41] was able to take the blueprint and then
[28:44] create the specs of a vaccine and then
[28:47] it had to go through the process which
[28:48] took another 9 months which was
[28:49] fasttracked. So now you go forward these
[28:53] AI the jalapeno AI chip where open AI
[28:56] worked with Broadcom which is a
[28:57] disruptive thing for Nvidia
[29:00] well that took 9 months to go from
[29:03] idea designed and AI was a major part of
[29:06] this so again when people start thinking
[29:09] about where we are that's why I always
[29:10] say the world changed in November of
[29:12] last year there wasn't a chat GPT moment
[29:15] for most of you but for people that were
[29:17] power users they felt it and so when
[29:19] Andre Carpathy split He was the one that
[29:21] basically said the world changed in
[29:24] November and that was a month after he
[29:25] was on a faint very big podcast saying I
[29:28] don't see any agentic stuff for another
[29:29] decade. You have to think about how
[29:31] wrong he was, how fast it's going. And
[29:34] as I said last week, Leopold wrote this
[29:36] paper. This is happening faster than
[29:38] even he predicted. And I think that's
[29:41] the issue is that people have to just
[29:42] accept that loops, tags, all of this
[29:45] stuff, those are all getting to the
[29:47] point where you don't need as many
[29:48] employees.
[29:49] regulation is rapidly running to keep up
[29:53] here. What is the impact of that going
[29:55] to be?
[29:57] >> I mean, for people who uh don't like
[29:59] change, it'll slow things down. Um we're
[30:02] obviously seeing election results which
[30:04] are indicative of um a continuation from
[30:08] what the voters voted for in New York
[30:10] City. You're getting more and more of
[30:13] this story. you're getting more and more
[30:14] empowerment when you're seeing Bernie
[30:16] Sanders rise again into some form of
[30:18] this and scare both the Republican party
[30:21] but also a major part of the Democratic
[30:23] party. Um
[30:24] >> guy has nine lives, man.
[30:26] >> Yeah, it's a it's amazing. I mean, the
[30:28] water in Vermont and Maine is very good.
[30:30] So, you're getting lots of lots of
[30:32] spring water keep you young. Um I
[30:36] it won't stop artificial intelligence.
[30:38] Um, I think David Freeberg on the All-In
[30:43] podcast gave a great commentary on this
[30:46] uh a week and a half ago and he
[30:49] basically said it's like the internet.
[30:51] You can't stop it and we haven't even
[30:54] built the data centers yet and we're
[30:56] talking about the agentic world
[30:57] accelerating. We need the data centers
[30:59] for uh longevity and for all kinds of
[31:02] things but we don't know how many we
[31:04] need. We actually don't know because the
[31:06] progress is going so fast. So, as much
[31:08] as I think the government will delay
[31:10] things, they'll create issues on things,
[31:12] they might make it more challenging,
[31:15] they might tax things, I mean, in Korea,
[31:17] we got another
[31:19] movement towards this unrealized capital
[31:22] gains tax. for everyone out there who's
[31:24] forgotten about crypto and confiscation
[31:28] and a lot of movements on the
[31:31] distribution wealth whether it's in uh
[31:34] the Netherlands whether it's in
[31:35] Switzerland whether it's in uh
[31:38] California you can go through places I
[31:40] mean the rise of socialism because of
[31:42] the distribution of wealth is there and
[31:44] I think AI only makes the situation
[31:46] worse and when I mention tags and loops
[31:48] to to bring up what you said I don't
[31:52] need tags
[31:54] because I don't have any employees. So,
[31:56] I'm actually working with my employee
[31:59] every single day on the brainstorming
[32:01] side of how to build things out. I want
[32:03] people to understand the same thing
[32:04] happens for loops. Meaning, I will start
[32:07] doing loops because I'll take my
[32:09] process, the workflow that I do, and
[32:11] have the agents run and improve on it.
[32:13] So, I'm going to do something this
[32:15] weekend and show people like this is a
[32:17] process I've shown you on how I go from
[32:19] a transcript to a thematic portfolio.
[32:22] That process is five different parts. An
[32:26] agent loop can do that and go through it
[32:28] and then check for new information. Give
[32:30] me a new one. Go through it. Check it.
[32:32] Oh, a new transcript came out. Is this
[32:33] fit the theme? Should we change names?
[32:35] Like, it just continues it. So, it's
[32:37] like an endless loop of just getting
[32:39] better. Those are the things that impact
[32:42] workers. Those are the things that allow
[32:44] companies with lots of employees to
[32:45] figure out how to get rid of them while
[32:48] entrepreneurs I think are benefiting
[32:50] faster and Stripe has highlighted that.
[32:52] But I really believe that entrepreneurs
[32:54] have a huge advantage in this world.
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[34:55] little about the stripe sessions and and
[34:56] what uh what they're talking there with
[34:58] the soloreneurs.
[34:59] >> Um
[35:01] so we talked about this last year. I
[35:03] watched my first stripe session last
[35:05] year. Um after I watched I watched the
[35:07] one the year before because I like
[35:09] seeing um how things change. And
[35:12] Stripe's a very important company in the
[35:14] United States of America. It's not only
[35:16] just a big private company, but the
[35:18] future of finance is dependent on what
[35:20] Stripe is doing. And now you have all
[35:22] the banks and crypto. For everyone who
[35:24] listens to you, Stripe is a really
[35:26] important player in the crypto world.
[35:28] Um, my entire business is on Stripe.
[35:32] It's a great thing. I mean, taxation in
[35:35] other countries and everything along
[35:36] those lines. It just makes running the
[35:38] business much easier. And on the Stripe
[35:40] sessions, they if you just watch the
[35:43] keynote, first of all, you see these
[35:45] charts and you see these numbers going
[35:47] parabolic, but this is all about AI. So
[35:50] a lot of what they talked about is in AI
[35:54] if you want to build an app now it's
[35:55] easy you go do it in code so we see how
[35:58] many apps are being built but to take an
[36:00] app that does something and then turn it
[36:02] into money where you're getting the
[36:04] money so it becomes a business well then
[36:05] you need a CFO you need an well stripe
[36:09] projects allows you to go from this to
[36:11] that and they showed a demo of how you
[36:13] can hey you built your app that's great
[36:15] now let's turn it into where you make
[36:17] money so now it's not just the coding on
[36:19] one end the coding from actually being
[36:21] in the place where you can collect the
[36:22] money and go through it. The last thing
[36:24] is for the agents to talk to each other
[36:26] and to start commerce and they talked
[36:29] about the growth in that. The reason
[36:31] that's important is because that is the
[36:33] network effects for crypto. So you'll
[36:35] start to see benefits coming through the
[36:37] crypto world as the volumes pick up.
[36:39] That's what we need. We need volume. We
[36:41] need activity. And they talked a lot
[36:43] about it. And I just want to make sure
[36:45] people realize we can't actually get to
[36:47] that point where the network effects
[36:48] take off and the agents are doing
[36:50] commerce until the first two stages
[36:52] happen. You needed the coding to get to
[36:54] a level that it could actually replace
[36:56] humans. We did that. And so people
[36:59] understand the importance of coding.
[37:00] There would be no GDP in the world if we
[37:02] couldn't communicate with each other.
[37:05] Communication for human beings allows
[37:07] business to actually happen. We talk
[37:09] about things. You sell things. You do
[37:11] that. You explain it. The language of
[37:14] digital employees is code. So the code
[37:17] allows them to talk with each other and
[37:19] go through it. So we needed the code. We
[37:20] needed them to be able to code on their
[37:22] own. Once we hit that point, then they
[37:25] can start building not just the apps,
[37:26] they can start building the the
[37:28] financial part. And then you those
[37:29] guardrails are there and then the agents
[37:31] start doing stuff with each other. And
[37:33] on there they talked about the fact that
[37:35] certainly by 2030 but even sooner more
[37:38] transactions will be happening via
[37:41] agents than humans. And when we get to
[37:43] that point the only thing that works to
[37:46] deal with the transactions is not
[37:47] physical money. It's stable coins. It is
[37:50] actually on the guard rails. And so the
[37:53] stripe thing is a very important kind of
[37:55] gateway between the prior world and the
[37:57] future world. And I think for people in
[37:59] crypto who are depressed because of the
[38:02] bare market, the bare market continues.
[38:04] Um the AI agents at the critical point
[38:07] of what Stripe said is the commerce
[38:09] isn't happening yet, but we're getting
[38:11] there pretty soon.
[38:12] >> It's uh it's fascinating to kind of see
[38:14] how fast this is all going. Um one of
[38:16] the narratives that's changed
[38:17] significantly is uh the debasement
[38:19] trade. Uh Bitcoin, gold, silver,
[38:22] everything selling off. Uh I think
[38:23] you've called this the debasement
[38:25] capitulation.
[38:26] They're still debasing the currency.
[38:28] >> Yes.
[38:29] >> So, what's going on? Why is Bitcoin,
[38:31] gold, and silver all selling off?
[38:33] >> Um, I think last year, not just last
[38:35] year, but the last two years, uh,
[38:40] there were two, let's say, bubbles. And
[38:44] when I say bubbles, things that both
[38:47] retail and institutions agreed on. So,
[38:50] AI, no, retail loves AI institutions for
[38:53] the most part. there. The the older you
[38:55] are, the more you think it's a bubble.
[38:58] Nobody who thinks AI is a bubble thought
[39:00] gold was a bubble. Gold was the way
[39:02] bears got to come out and go, I'm
[39:03] bullish on something. It's just gold.
[39:06] They're also all bearish on bonds.
[39:08] Nobody owns bonds. Why would you own
[39:10] bonds? Like inflation's on the higher
[39:12] side. So the debasement trade is not
[39:15] just long gold, long silver, long
[39:16] Bitcoin. And yes, Bitcoin was part of
[39:18] it. Until October of last year, Bitcoin
[39:21] was outperforming the stock market.
[39:23] Bitcoin was outperforming bonds
[39:25] significantly. So gold, silver, and
[39:28] Bitcoin get lumped in. It's amazing how
[39:30] Bitcoin gets lumped into software. We
[39:32] got a bare market in that. It gets left
[39:34] it gets it gets put in with the
[39:36] debasement trade. Now the debasement
[39:38] trades washing out. You got gold and
[39:39] silver going down because Kevin Walsh
[39:41] came out and said, "Well, I think I'm
[39:44] going to be more hawkish." And everyone
[39:45] said, "That's it. Dollar rallies.
[39:47] Everything's good." And I'm like, "We
[39:49] still have a deficit. We still have
[39:50] massive debt. nothing is going to change
[39:53] because he speaks a certain language and
[39:55] we've got a lot of people I mean Warren
[39:57] Pies put out a great chart this week I
[39:58] was going to send it to you which just
[40:00] showed the
[40:02] the part of the economy that is now cons
[40:05] the information and computer side versus
[40:09] residential investment
[40:12] residential investment is not moving
[40:14] which means house prices are not moving
[40:15] which is where the bulk of Americans
[40:17] would like to see this bull market AI
[40:20] going up does not benefit benefit
[40:21] everyone the same way. So I I think that
[40:24] the basement trade has reached a point
[40:25] where because bond yields
[40:28] or bonds just stay stable. They don't do
[40:31] anything. Uh this was really people had
[40:34] reduced in their wealth management
[40:36] portfolio. I think some pension funds
[40:38] had done this. We had a scenario that we
[40:40] were overweight this debasement trade
[40:43] underweight bonds and when the trade
[40:45] starts doing poorly and it coincides
[40:47] with us running into the end of a
[40:49] quarter and everyone should remember
[40:51] this. Bitcoin is now an asset that
[40:53] people invest in. It's part of the asset
[40:55] allocation process. People make
[40:57] decisions at the end of a quarter and
[40:59] you tend to get a lot of people that are
[41:00] bailing out. You also have people
[41:02] shorting the hell out of the thing
[41:03] because I'm reading more Michael Sailor
[41:05] stuff and that Micro Strategy is going
[41:07] to blow up and they're going to have to
[41:08] sell. So we really have the mob is not
[41:11] involved, meaning retail is not
[41:13] involved. It's a bare market. You have
[41:16] institutions that hate Bitcoin. You have
[41:17] the debasement trade going down. You
[41:19] still have the software names like Adobe
[41:21] and Salesforce not bouncing at all.
[41:23] Bitcoin is just lumped in with a bunch
[41:24] of bad stuff right now.
[41:26] >> When will it recover?
[41:28] >> Uh again, I I'm for me this is a very
[41:32] simple thing. Um, and I say simple
[41:34] because
[41:36] it's what I do believe in terms of the
[41:38] endgame for AI,
[41:41] AI agents and the network effects
[41:43] happening and the amount of volumes that
[41:46] will be going on. The economy will
[41:48] change forever. There are two things
[41:50] that will happen and I've mentioned this
[41:52] on here at least a few times. when
[41:54] Caitlyn Long wrote a piece about the
[41:57] velocity of money changing. Now, this is
[41:59] a Tradfi banker who understands GDP and
[42:03] I we both respect Caitlyn a lot. Um, she
[42:07] knows that world really well and so do
[42:10] I. Velocity of money has been a dead
[42:12] thing and the reason it's been dead is
[42:14] because the world's assets have gone up
[42:16] so much. So, when you go through the
[42:18] whole what Bitcoin represents, it
[42:20] represents the fact that the fiat assets
[42:22] have gone up so much. the distribution
[42:24] of wealth has gotten worse and it makes
[42:26] people angry and the government just
[42:28] keeps solving this problem. They're not
[42:29] going to need to do that anymore. And
[42:31] the reason they won't need to do that is
[42:32] a combination of demographics. So there
[42:35] is 700 plus trillion dollars of wealth
[42:38] on the planet. It's in assets. Twothirds
[42:41] of those assets are in dormant assets.
[42:44] It's money. A house is money. If you can
[42:47] get cash for it, you can go spend it.
[42:49] It's money. It's like what SpaceX was.
[42:52] SpaceX was a dormant asset. It was a
[42:54] private thing. And over the course of
[42:56] the next few months, a lot of people are
[42:59] going to be millionaires and actually
[43:00] can go cash in their money. You'll have
[43:02] billionaires that can go cash in their
[43:03] money. Then they can turn around and go
[43:05] spend that money. They can go buy
[43:06] houses. They can do whatever they want.
[43:08] But it was a dormant asset that you'd
[43:09] have to go through hurdles to go borrow
[43:11] against. With tokenization and with AI
[43:14] agents transacting a lot, the velocity
[43:16] of money is going to increase
[43:17] significantly. And when the velocity of
[43:19] money goes through, people have to
[43:20] realize that GDP at the end of the day
[43:22] is a total sum of transactions and
[43:24] transactions are going to be happening
[43:25] faster. And the pieces of the pie that
[43:27] make up public companies are middlemen.
[43:29] They're taking taxes on all of this
[43:31] stuff. And so there'll be less taxes in
[43:33] terms of the the friction that goes on.
[43:36] And every year it'll get less and less.
[43:38] So, I've always believed that the third
[43:39] wave of crypto, which in Elliot wave
[43:42] terms means the most explosive one would
[43:45] happen when the agents came. And I just
[43:49] want to leave people with one other part
[43:50] of Elliot wave. If I'm right about that,
[43:53] and I believe AI is the durable part.
[43:56] So, for those of you who are bearish AI,
[43:58] where Bitcoin is gone to me is if AI
[44:00] collapses, which to me is not going to
[44:02] happen. AI is a real thing. It's going
[44:04] to keep moving forward. AI agents are a
[44:06] real thing and we just keep making
[44:07] progress. As that goes for the end of
[44:10] the second wave, you need people
[44:13] believing that we're going back to the
[44:16] depths. Now, the depths of FTX and all
[44:18] of that, this is not that. There are
[44:20] real people buying real businesses at
[44:22] dirt cheap prices right now. And I know
[44:24] some of the same people you do that are
[44:26] involved in this. These are really good
[44:29] people that have built businesses before
[44:31] that see value in this because they see
[44:33] the what the NFTs will be be as a
[44:36] positive thing, the need for them, why
[44:38] the blockchain is necessary in a world
[44:39] of deep fakes. All of these thematic
[44:41] things that I've written about in my
[44:43] Substack for 18 months, they're still in
[44:45] play. So, I think people just need to
[44:47] remember things change very quickly.
[44:49] Micron was
[44:52] $60 when you and I started this.
[44:55] It's now 1,200 and change. Things can
[44:59] change very quickly.
[45:03] >> It's a big move.
[45:04] >> All right. Well, thank you very much,
[45:05] Jordy. Anyone who uh needs something to
[45:07] do on Sunday morning, listen, this guy's
[45:09] got a banger coming out. I'm telling
[45:11] you, I know some of the little details
[45:13] of this video, you need to go and watch
[45:14] it tomorrow morning. Uh all you do is
[45:16] you just go Jordy Visser on YouTube. Go
[45:18] watch. Of course, if you're going to
[45:19] watch the video, you might as well, you
[45:20] know, help him out. Hit the subscribe
[45:22] button. Maybe put a little like, little
[45:23] thumbs up on uh YouTube. Neil, the CEO
[45:25] of YouTube, he likes that. He says, "Oh,
[45:27] Jordy's popular. Let me give him a
[45:28] little boost on uh this video." So, make
[45:31] sure you subscribe to to Jord's YouTube
[45:33] channel. Give him a a like on the video,
[45:35] and we'll do this again. I'll see you
[45:37] next week from Maine.