another $18,000 candle and before you know it, we're at uh 96 and we're testing the January highs earlier this year. It's something that Bitcoin is capable of doing. And by adding at this level, I'm acknowledging that like I mentioned, we still may have this retest coming, right? And I'll have to deal with that. It's not the end of the world. We've added more Bitcoin this cycle. still not as much or anywhere near as much as I would have hoped. But again, that's investing. But I added
If we get above the 200-day moving average with everything that I just said, which is up up north of 70 at this point, I do think that that's going to be the beginning of the next phase of crypto and the next phase of AI. We'll see if it happens in the second half of the year. I think it will.
until we close, which I believe we will at some point soon, whether it's the beginning of next year, even the second quarter. Once we close above 92,000, three days in a row, I think we'll start heading higher again.
Fallo
Plazo: 2026-01-20
Corregido manualmente (Rafa, 2026-07-12): la cita es una condicional 'once we close above 92,000, three days in a row, I think we'll start heading higher again' -- el nivel 92000 es el DISPARADOR/premisa que Visser da casi por hecho, no su prediccion real. Su pronostico real (incierto, 'I think') es la continuacion alcista posterior. El disparador SI se cumplio (BTC cerro por encima de 92000 siete dias seguidos, 13-19 ene 2026, pico 96929 el 14-ene) pero la continuacion NO ocurrio: BTC se desplomo a la zona de 62-70k a principios/mediados de febrero 2026. Evaluada la condicional como unidad (disparador + consecuencia), la prediccion en conjunto fallo -> MISS. Precio resuelto = cierre en horizon_date (20-ene-2026): ya de vuelta por debajo de 92000. Ver issue #55 para el detalle completo.
for the first time, we have divergences... lower lows and higher highs... going back to July of last year... if we get an unwind the other direction, I think it's good for gold, good for silver, good for Bitcoin.
I put this Substack out this week um going through why this is the most asymmetric bet in my opinion in my career... you can believe that Bitcoin's not going to go higher. Nothing is 100%.
Stablecoins are growing rapidly... Stablecoins now rival the world's largest payment networks in transaction volume... Real-world assets: "there's already 30 billion online."
Bitcoin "went down to the bottom end of the channel. We held"... "There'll be more money that is handed out... There will be more printing of money in some form. And this is what all leads to Bitcoin at the end of the day".
Bitcoin will always be a major benefactor, but we are still coming out of the .com bubble for crypto... Crypto will be dominating the markets next year in my opinion.
AI purest AI trade is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is energy. It has an energy component. There's a mining component. They were the first digital people to build out these centers. For everyone who wanted renewables, guess what? Bitcoin's going to help you be more renewable. Bitcoin miners give you flexible price-driven demand. They turn cheap or stranded electrons.