Anthony Pompliano

Bitcoin apenas está comenzando, dice un inversionista multimillonario

🇬🇧 EN🇪🇸 ES
Completo 1:01:21 min youtube 2026 Semana 43 20 Oct 2026 🇪🇸 ES
TL;DR
Resumen de investigación

▶ Impulso, euforia y riesgo

El presentador presenta a Casam y le pregunta cómo invierte en torno a la euforia tecnológica. Casam dice que los inversores no tienen que evitar todos los temas que generan euforia, pero deben evaluar qué está ya reflejado en los precios, mantener la objetividad y la paciencia, y observar el sentimiento y la participación. Compara el impulso con el juego de las sillas musicales: los inversores pueden obtener buenos rendimientos sin quedarse hasta que el tema alcance su punto máximo, y deben notar cuándo el entusiasmo se vuelve demasiado intenso.

▶ Operaciones y Bitcoin

Casam dice que la participación minorista y la coordinación en línea han aumentado la especulación, por lo que Anson tiene paciencia al entrar y salir, y es prudente con el riesgo y la asignación. El fondo combina la inversión con el análisis de operaciones, lo que, según dice, le permite actuar cuando surgen temas; cita la conducción autónoma, las criptomonedas y el cannabis como ejemplos. Describe a Anson como un gestor de unos US$2.5–3 mil millones que analiza operaciones por varios miles de millones de dólares al año. Casam dice que pasó de una exposición a Bitcoin que al principio estaba relacionada con operaciones a creer que Bitcoin tiene valor inherente y llegó para quedarse; cita la adopción institucional y una base persistente de participantes, y reconoce su volatilidad y sus ciclos.

▶ Empresas con tesorería en Bitcoin y valores preferentes

Casam describe el atractivo de las empresas con tesorería en Bitcoin como una forma de obtener exposición apalancada a Bitcoin, incluso mediante valores preferentes perpetuos. Dice que Anson invirtió unos US$1 mil millones en empresas con tesorería en los últimos 18 meses, pero encontró que las operaciones posteriores eran más débiles a medida que más empresas entraban en el sector y aumentaba el impulso; advierte que no se debe intentar subirse tarde al tema. Describe un valor preferente emitido a 90, con un rendimiento declarado del 15% y 18 meses de flujos de efectivo reservados, y dice que Anson esperaba que subiera hacia 100. La estrategia que expone consiste en analizar un rendimiento a más corto plazo —menciona un IRR del 20%— y posiblemente salir cuando lleguen los inversores minoristas, aunque el fondo podría mantener algunas posiciones. Dice que Anson no es principalmente un inversor de renta fija y que considera el perfil de riesgo y rendimiento, no solo el rendimiento.

▶ Riesgos de la IA y los mercados privados

Casam dice que los inversores son relativamente indiferentes a cuál de los temas persiga Anson y que evita dar opiniones concretas sobre inversiones públicas que otros podrían aprovechar para operar. Considera que la IA es una tecnología real y trascendental, pero dice que la atención saturada, las valoraciones elevadas, la incertidumbre sobre quiénes serán los ganadores y la financiación interrelacionada entre partes del ecosistema dificultan hacer grandes apuestas. Compara la incertidumbre con el auge de las puntocom y dice que Anson puede estructurar operaciones en torno al impulso de la IA sin afirmar que sabe quiénes serán los ganadores. Describe las ofertas privadas y los mercados secundarios como un «salvaje oeste»; cita los SPV con varias capas y las comisiones, y advierte que podría haber tensiones si el dinero empieza a salir. Anson ha empezado a tantear el trading fuera del horario habitual; Casam dice que su ventaja consiste en reaccionar a las dislocaciones impulsadas por el sentimiento y a la escasa liquidez, en vez de competir en el trading automatizado. Dice que el equipo vigila los mercados nocturnos y puede comprar cuando las ventas forzadas hacen caer bruscamente los precios.

▶ Proceso de trading y áreas de ventaja

Casam dice que Anson opera con una estructura de pods: los gestores tienen autonomía para operar dentro de ciertos límites, pero deben llamarlo cuando superan un determinado tamaño. Describe cómo reaccionan a las alteraciones del mercado, incluso en casos en que los operadores usan resúmenes de informes generados por IA y Anson busca errores o información omitida que pueda mover los precios. Dice que el fondo suele evitar situaciones muy examinadas, como una posible operación entre Tesla y SpaceX, donde los fondos más grandes podrían tener mejor acceso y conocimientos, y en cambio busca una ventaja en empresas más pequeñas y con menos cobertura. Anson suele analizar empresas valoradas por encima de US$100 millones y busca invertir al menos US$4–5 millones, citando el costo de oportunidad. Casam dice que el fondo ha ganado unos US$3 mil millones, recibe reembolsos netos algunos años y no busca activamente captar más capital; sostiene que su tamaño actual le permite perseguir situaciones en las que puede tener impacto.

▶ Corea, sentimiento y períodos de tenencia

Casam dice que Anson lleva entre seis y ocho meses operando en Corea, centrándose en Samsung y SK Hynix y en su papel en la memoria. Aunque ve buenas perspectivas de ganancias, dice que las empresas son grandes y conocidas, lo cual limita la ventaja informativa de Anson; describe cómo volvió a comprar empresas coreanas después de que el sentimiento se volviera negativo. Él y el presentador hablan sobre la fuerte compra de opciones put y la posibilidad de que se revierta el posicionamiento bajista saturado. Casam relata que compró CoreWeave al observar una compra inusualmente intensa de opciones put y luego vendió tras el repunte, cuando los inversores volvieron a esa operación. Dice que las posiciones suelen durar semanas o meses, que las operaciones más grandes se mantienen durante más tiempo y que algunas empresas se mantienen durante años; las posiciones a más corto plazo pueden tener como objetivo un movimiento del 10–15% en días o semanas antes de una reevaluación y la salida.

▶ Rendimientos, ventas en corto y activismo largo

Casam recuerda una operación de arbitraje relacionada con una recapitalización de National Bank of Greece que generó unos US$80 millones en un día. Dice que las grandes ganancias diarias son poco habituales, que el fondo valora sus posiciones de forma conservadora y que su enfoque más habitual consiste en acumular muchas ganancias pequeñas. Describe a Anson como dispuesto a salir cuando una empresa ya no necesita su apoyo y volver si las circunstancias cambian. Casam dice que las ventas en corto de acciones individuales se han vuelto difíciles debido a un mercado alcista prolongado, la alta volatilidad y el mayor tamaño del fondo; dice que Anson ha cambiado su enfoque hacia el activismo largo. Su grupo activista apunta a empresas de unos US$1 mil millones o menos, donde puede adquirir una participación mayor y trabajar con la dirección o buscar cambios, incluidos cambios en el consejo, ventas de activos, recompras de acciones o la venta de la empresa. Cita REIT canadienses, Clear Channel y una campaña actual de Lionsgate, donde dice que un proceso de venta podría revelar más valor, y señala que las campañas activistas requieren esfuerzo y tiempo.

▶ Una operación biotecnológica de alto riesgo y mercados de predicción

Después de que los presentadores hablan de una anécdota sobre un inversor activista y un buque de guerra argentino, Casam dice que el activismo de Anson se centra en colaborar con la dirección y perseguir cambios como desinversiones, recompras, adquisiciones o una venta. Sobre Moderna, describe una fuerte subida vinculada a las percepciones del mercado sobre un ensayo de tratamiento contra el cáncer, cuyos resultados se esperaban en los próximos 10 días. Dice que el mercado quizá esté tratando la noticia como si la empresa pudiera curar todo el cáncer, mientras que aún no se habían publicado detalles sobre la eficacia del ensayo. Considera que ponerse corto antes de la publicación de los resultados es una decisión arriesgada en términos de valor esperado, reconoce que sabe poco sobre los datos de eficacia contra el cáncer y señala que el tratamiento podría tener éxito. Casam dice que los mercados de predicción pueden aportar información útil porque los participantes quizá tengan conocimientos pertinentes e incentivos financieros, pero los considera un dato más, no una razón independiente para comprar una acción. Dice que Anson no invierte directamente en mercados de predicción.

▶ Datos sociales, espacio y SPAC

Casam dice que Anson no usa las redes sociales para publicar informes, pero utiliza software y análisis para seguir las conversaciones positivas y negativas y los cambios en el sentimiento minorista. Advierte que los inversores individuales pueden sobrestimar su ventaja informativa, mientras que Anson busca beneficiarse de la euforia. Sobre las inversiones relacionadas con el espacio, dice que el tema podría funcionar con el tiempo, pero es especulativo, difícil de analizar y demasiado a largo plazo para una asignación grande; advierte que no se debe suponer que habrá avances rápidos. También dice que Tesla es una empresa tecnológica además de automovilística, pero describe su valoración como alta y dice que no ve ninguna ventaja particular en ella. Sobre las SPAC, dice que el mercado se mueve con el sentimiento y ha caído a medida que se desplomaron el impulso y las empresas orientadas a los inversores minoristas. Anson vuelve a analizar las SPAC con patrocinadores establecidos, redes y acceso a financiación, que, según Casam, podrían ser relativamente baratas cerca de su valor fiduciario y financiarse con un banco.

▶ Canadá, Estados Unidos y colaboración

Casam dice que estar en Canadá mantiene a Anson algo alejado del «circo» diario del mercado y le ayuda a contratar personas que han trabajado en el extranjero y han regresado. Dice que muchas de las empresas nuevas de criptomonedas y cannabis cotizaban en Toronto, donde Anson podía ser una de las primeras entidades en contactarlas, mientras que alrededor del 90% de la actividad del fondo ocurre en Estados Unidos. Al hablar de las relaciones entre Canadá y Estados Unidos, prefiere que los países sigan siendo independientes y trabajen como socios, y dice que sus intereses comunes hacen que les convenga más ser amigos que adversarios. También cuenta que apostó por Canadá en el hockey olímpico y que no le gustó que ganara Estados Unidos.

▶ Financiación de atletas olímpicos y cierre

Casam dice que su familia y su socio Adrien Rocka iniciaron una iniciativa de apoyo a atletas que aplica a la filantropía una mentalidad de fondo de inversión de capital. Proporciona financiación de última etapa a atletas canadienses que se acercan a los Juegos Olímpicos, por ejemplo, para entrenamiento, viajes a eventos adicionales o mejor tecnología. Casam dice que el programa piloto apoyó al 10% de los atletas y que estos ganaron el 30% de las medallas; dice que el enfoque se repitió en los Juegos Olímpicos de Invierno y que el grupo está trabajando para darlo a conocer. Cierra dirigiendo a los oyentes al sitio web y las redes sociales de Anson Funds.

Transcripción completa
[0:00] And that's what happened with Bitcoin. And I'm looking at today, I'm like, "Oh my god, these things are at 70 80 went over 100,000. We were there." But you start to notice when things go up in a big manner. And yeah, we've had a lot of volatility over the years and we've had a couple of cycles, but there is an inherent group of people who, you know, are going to keep this thing going. And it's not just before it was a bunch of people talking about the road, Hilk Road and Underground and this and, you know, anonymity. [music] Now you've got major
[0:30] institutions that have adopted it, put them on their platforms and you know this is something that's here to stay for sure. What's going on guys? Today we have a great conversation with Moaz Casam. He is the co-founder and CIO at Anson Funds and in this conversation it is going to be one of the most entertaining investors that we've ever had on the podcast. In this conversation he's going to talk about Bitcoin AI space what he does by chasing momentum. Why some of the legacy financial advice you may have heard about investing could be wrong. how he thinks about countries like Korea versus the United States verse Canada, and then we get into what
[1:00] he is doing in terms of shorting individual names, what investment ideas he's excited about, and what you should be considering for your portfolio as well. This conversation is full of all sorts of types of alpha. I think you're going to enjoy it. Here's my conversation with Moaz. All right, Moz, most people if you went to like an economics 101 or personal finance class, they would say the number one rule is to stay away from all hype. Do not chase hype. You have made a killing chasing hype, chasing momentum. And I think that you've actually understand how this stuff works and figured out not only how do you enter into these trades, but also how do you get out of them. Can you talk
[1:31] a little bit about maybe your approach to looking at technology hype cycles and how you play this stuff? >> Well, it's funny. You know, you say that the rule of thumb is to stay away from hype. It's not stay away from hype per se, but it's make sure you're on the other side of the hype. Is that at the end of the day, you know, all that glitters is not always gold. And you know what I tell people at the end of the day is anything that has too much hype around it, that's when you want to be walking away. So, you know what? We're around stuff that has hype, but it's understanding and being objective about it. So, when I tell everyone, if
[2:02] you're ever at a party and someone's talking about a new theme or idea, you look at the stock charts around and they're all screaming high. And the idea can be great, but how much of that is already priced in? The idea is you want to be objective and patient cuz whenever there's hype, there's, you know, movements back and forth. And there's an ability to make money as long as you're patient. >> So really what you're doing is you're looking for the idea right before it becomes consensus. And what ends up happening from my understanding is you guys will put these positions on and as they become, you know, [snorts]
[2:32] significantly hyped up, that's when you're basically like, "All right, now's our time to get off the train." >> Yeah. You know what? It's it's not as simple as that. But the idea is, you know, trying to get in early, but also recognizing when the music is too loud, cuz it's musical chairs, and it always stops at some point. And the idea is not just about riding the train, but understanding sentiment, understanding who's getting in, how many people are around, and how loud is that music playing to say, "Listen, you don't have to get all the way to the ninth inning.
[3:03] If you make seven innings, you can you can have a pretty good return on whatever theme you're looking at." >> You managed a couple billion dollars. uh you are the best hedge fund manager in Canada as I always tell you uh no you're a very good investor and um I think that you now have seen kind of the evolution of financial markets where it used to be very institutional driven now you have retail investors and the retail investors they're very well informed they have the ability to communicate with each other on the internet and they drive a lot of momentum into names but also out of names if they kind of
[3:33] something is a fallen uh darling then all of a sudden you know that can punish these stocks as well how's that changed the way that you invest in the market. >> It it's it's a great observation. You know, things have really shifted since co right the retail investor is more informed. There are a lot more people people are trading all around the world. You know, speculation is rampant. But it's, you know, seeing what happened during that time period with GameStop and AMC and all that is that you need to be very patient and, you know, not go in
[4:03] too quickly and not exit too quickly, especially if people who are shorting a lot of stuff around retail. Like we do a lot of, you know, buying and underwriting of deals, but also when we think things are too frothy or, you know, there's the meto companies, we'll sort of look at that on the short side, but things can go up a lot faster and a lot longer and a lot higher than you think. So, it's really about being prudent around risk and allocations. >> So, if most people looked at like your resume, they would be like, "Oh, Moz is a hedge fund manager." If somebody came
[4:33] to me in the street and was like, "Hey, do you know Moz, what does he do?" I'd like a dealmaker, which I think is, you know, they're similar, but they are two distinctly different things. And what I think is unique about you guys is you have a big pool of capital, but you also have this like dealm, you know, kind of component or interest. Can you talk about why putting those together, the the capital pool plus the deal making has made you guys so much money over time? >> Yeah, you know, with the deal making, you can turn over a lot of deals, especially in this NASDAQ world where there's just so much liquidity where, you know, we we do run about 2 and 1
[5:04] half 3 billion US, but we're underwriting deals, multiple billion dollars a year, and it's just about understanding structure and deals and around where hype and themes are. So, we're looking, people go, "How are you going to make money tomorrow?" And I go, honestly, I have no idea, but there's always some theme. Whether it's autonomous driving, whether it's crypto, whether it's cannabis, whenever there's hype, inadvertently, there's all the companies moving together, liquidity, a lot of deals will be had at that time. And so for us, it's just about identifying what the themes are. We
[5:35] never really identified the theme of I'm going to figure out what's going to be big. But I can identify it as it starts to percolate and then take advantage of that and then start to understand the system, you know, as a generalist, what people are looking for, what's going to make it continue higher and, you know, what the pitfalls and headwinds are going to be and then start looking at what companies are going to resonate with the average or retail investor. the the reason why I uh think I am uh so sympathetic to your approach is because it is kind of like a retail investor in
[6:06] the sense of they are not usually experts in anyone field. They have a good pulse on quotequote the market. The market may be conversation online. It may be actual individual stocks. Like they're just obsessed with this and so they're kind of watching. They don't have as strict, you know, bureaucracy of like we have to go to a huge risk department. We got to have a big investment committee. And so there's a little bit more of like that deal-making approach of hey if I see something good I can strike quickly. I think you guys still have all the risk uh management etc. but you have that ability to move quickly and then you have gone theme by
[6:37] theme by theme over the years like AI space bitcoin like you have exposure to this stuff maybe let's start with bitcoin in particular uh somebody on your team told me you did not like bitcoin when it uh it first came out and kind you first heard about it but then in the last couple of years maybe have uh loosened your stance and become a little bit more uh excited about bitcoin. No, no. I'm I'm definitely a fan of Bitcoin, but you know, just to take a step back, you know, I'm actually based in Toronto and when Bitcoin first started becoming a thing and people wanted to get into equities, all the
[7:07] companies actually started listing in Toronto and there aren't a lot of hedge funds in Toronto. So we were naturally very exposed to what became Hive and you know we were the original fund who backed Mike Novagrats around Galaxy and so yeah we did it from a deal perspective but then I started to appreciate the nuances of Bitcoin and you know the worry around the world and you know inflation and this and that and like you know is there an actual theme around this that's sustaining and I have become definitely more of a believer where before it was just deal related
[7:37] now I believe Bitcoin has an inherent value and it's here to stay. You know what's interesting is uh I used to tell people get off zero. That was like my big uh calling card if you were. And I would just like look take $5 and buy some Bitcoin and if it's in your portfolio, even if it's five bucks, you're going to pay attention. It's going to be on the screen. You're going to see it. You're going to kind of get a feel for it. Maybe you'll end up putting more money into it. You kind of did the same thing. You got off zero, but not cuz you went and bought Bitcoin because the deals came. And then as you got exposure to the deals, it feels like maybe that pulled you down the rabbit hole and you started to learn more about it. >> Yeah. No, it's funny. I I I I tell the story when I launched my fund, I went to
[8:08] a bunch of super high net worth guys and you know they get ability to invest millions of dollars and I said just give me a hundred,000 because then I'm on your I'm on your map. You're going to have to start looking at me and if I do well you're going to be like why do I only have $100,000 in this? And that's what happened with Bitcoin. Bitcoin we're investing and I'm sad like you know we were looking at it was 100 200 500,000 and I'm looking at today I'm like oh my god these things are 70 80 went over 100,000 we were there but you start to notice when things go up in a big manner and yeah we've had a lot of volatility over the years and we've had
[8:39] a couple of cycles but there is an inherent group of people who you know are going to keep this thing going and it's not just before it was a bunch of people talking about uh the road Hilk code and underground and this and you know anonymity. Now you've got major institutions that have adopted it, put them on their platforms and you know this is something that's here to stay for sure. >> Let's talk about what you guys did in the Bitcoin world recently. Um you backed some of the Bitcoin treasury companies. Uh you did converts, you did
[9:09] equity. I mean you guys were kind of a player in all of this. What are some of the lessons that you took away and maybe like what was the best deal you did and then what were some of the the things that you wish you hadn't done? No, I think you know when the the what's called the DAT the treasury companies you know people started saying hey listen which started with you know sailor and micro strategy and they said listen instead of buying bitcoin let's buy a leveraged way to play it and then you know with the you know new aged around per uh perpetual preferred you have an ability to get a levered return on bitcoin through some of these dats
[9:40] and then everybody what you realize is the first mover advantage is huge so the first few guys who did it um you know BMR guys who came about Vak Raman Swani around around Strive. Um those people you know have way higher adoption and then suddenly everybody wants to get in the mode. You know you were early we did very well with you and then at the end of the day you've got 74 companies coming and every day we're looking at a bunch and it went from us giving 20 million 50 million eventually we gave a billion dollars to uh you know treasury
[10:10] companies last in the last 18 months. But you realize the later you are and the louder the music, the worse the the deals are that they aren't there's too many guys trying to hold up that many names. But also everyone's trying to get away with this get-rich quick. Oh, I can do this. I can do this. And everyone is saying, I've got a treasury company. And so you realize there's something around being early and then there's something around trying to catch the momentum at the end where you really need to avoid. >> What I think is interesting is uh so you put a billion dollars to work across all
[10:40] these companies over 18 months. Now, people hear if you manage two or three billion, they're going to think that you've got, you know, 30 to 50% of your fund invested in treasury companies. That's not the case. Exactly. [laughter] You you uh you're recycling some of the capital like there's other components of how you're you're doing that, but let's just say that you put a billion dollars to work there. um you started with the equity in the converts and kind of the companies themselves but I think you were one of the either largest or uh one of the big investors in Strive's recent SATs SATS which is their preferred equity similar to uh stretch or um SATA.
[11:13] What are you guys excited about with these preferred equities? You know this one is a very unique opportunity in my opinion is that you you know all the treasury companies have now trading at big discounts to their underlying NAV and people are like oh my god we should just buy them and do activism which we do as well but because they were put on with such bad covenants in order to get rid of a management team you have to pay three four five forward earnings of that team which takes away the discount you know Strive it was set up by a very
[11:43] legit group of people it was really thought out uh guys who have had a huge backing Matt um Vivac in that field and they traded a multiple of NAV and they've got a lot of euphoria behind them and so they were really the second player to do a perpetual preferred and the interesting part for us is there's a little bit of an arbitrage where they need to do a big underwriting in order to do that with institutional investors or yield guys it ends up coming at a bigger discount. So these things normally trade at 100 and have a yield of like 13%. this one, you know, just
[12:15] got issued at 90 and then the idea is it'll slowly gravitate towards 100 and at that point we'll probably start exiting as the retail guys come in. But, you know, they put aside 18 months of cash flows associated with the earnings. has got a 15% yield and you know a lot of guys are underwriting where is Bitcoin going to be and they're saying you know they're in their model is 30 to 50% up in the next year and then you're like wow this really can have the convexity the vortex to keep going and so the idea really is uh they need
[12:45] initial capital that initial capital they basically allow for institutional investors to come in at a lower price entry price and that starts the flywheel and then as it moves up this is a good example I think of where you're like hey we see something early, we like it, we understand the riskreward, and then as it gets to par, well, par is par, right? Like there's not really a return in holding the thing. You're not in it for the 13% yield or 15% yield. Maybe that's nice for a period of time, but really what you're trying to do is you're trying to drive a double- digit percentage return off of the actual like
[13:17] capital appreciation more than just the yield. Is that right? >> Yeah, I know. That's a good observation. So, we'll look at it underwriting a 20% irr because we'll be in it for a shorter term period and get 90 to 100 in the span of a month. Then maybe we'll keep some for sure, but we're not fixed income players. The idea is buying it institutionally and then taking it where all the retail guys come in. And that's sort of what we did with Morgan Stanley when they did the original uh micro strategy deal or Barclays and Caner have done it with these guys. And it's a it's
[13:47] a great opportunity for us. But I also believe, you know, even the retailer net investor buying it at 99 to 100, these things have a pretty good return profile for everybody. Today's episode is brought to you by Galaxy 1. A lot of people got their money working for them, but the question now, how hard is it working? Well, the folks over at Galaxy 1, they're taking a very different approach. Everyone earns 3.5% APY using Galaxy 1 Cash. And if you make over $200,000 a year, that means you're probably an accredited investor. And
[14:18] then you can earn up to 8% on your cash guaranteed by Galaxy Digital. The best part, though, is that you can actually set it so that your yield immediately is reinvested into your favorite stocks, crypto, or ETFs. You don't got to think about it every single month. It just automatically does it for you. That's why I love Galaxy 1. So, if your cash isn't working as hard as you are, then it's time to make a move. check out the link in the description and start earning today. What What do your investors talk about when they talk about Bitcoin? Are they excited and they're like, "Hey, let's go get more
[14:48] exposure to this." Are they kind of like, "Hey, that was cool, but now this AI thing is like sucking the wind out of, you know, kind of the market and so like why are you spending time on Bitcoin?" What's the sentiment in those conversations? >> You know, our investors are somewhat agnostic to how we do it. They sort of like the, you know, approach that we sort of will go anywhere like and the idea is we don't pretend to be, you know, one type of investor and only look at one type of security or one industry is that we can our advantage is just we have our our eyes wide open. We understand sentiment. We understand euphoria and we understand not taking a
[15:19] lot of risk and there's a lot of ways to get to the top of the mountain. And so for them it's sort of, you know, if we say we like Bitcoin or we don't, they don't really care. And the problem is I used to always tell people what I liked and then someone would go and make that trade associated but then I would change my mind in a few weeks and then I feel bad cuz they're like oh what happened? I'm like oops. So now I just try and keep things as general as I can. All right now let's talk about uh AI. There's obviously this like very persistent long-term trend. I think people are very excited. There's a lot of different ways to play it though. You can go and you can buy the hyperscalers.
[15:49] You can go and get into the components. There's obviously all the land. All the Bitcoin miners are switching over to HPC. like when you look at AI as a as a macro trade if you are a general trade where have you guys played and what has have you been not excited about [snorts] >> you know as I mentioned it earlier whenever the music is too loud it's probably not a good time to be investing and the entire world is talking about AI and 100% they should be cuz the disruption adoption all that 100% is
[16:21] legit it's changed my life it's changing everyone's lives even people didn't think they could ever do it. My parents who barely know to use a computer, you know, I loaded the new bot uh dot from chat GPT and it's just, you know, just starts looking at their email and calendar and it's just amazing the efficiencies that you can get, but when you look at the valuations associated with some of these companies, you know, it reminds me when I first started training was like the dot boom. Everyone talked about the disruption, which was true, but it was all about Yahoo and Exite and AOL and all that. No one
[16:52] realized at the end of the day the winner was AOL which came out of nowhere. That it can be the same thing now with all the disruption we're seeing. Are we really ready to pick who the winner would be? And should a company in the second third inning of where the technology is heading be worth $2 trillion. And into my mind, how are you going to pick? Someone could literally come out of nowhere, you know, as we're seeing that the uh the evolution of this and disrupt the whole industry. And that's why you you're seeing a lot of weirdness around the ecosystem, right? You have Nvidia and
[17:24] you have the data centers and you have the chips and the everything is one big, you know, circle right now where it's all interrelated interparty stuff. It gets me a little, you know, um, reserved into taking big bets, but the momentum is there, so we're happy to structure deals around it. But am I here to say categorically I know anthropic or, you know, whomever will be the winner? You have no idea. and and the valuations are very rich to make those types of bets today. >> Let's talk about CHBT or OpenAI and
[17:55] Anthropic maybe as a good example. So like one they're in the private market. So have you guys ever been incentivized or uh kind of tempted to go and start investing in privates? Uh but two is if you look at anthropic like the other day in some of the tokenized or or like per you know kind of future stuff it sold off like I don't know from two trillion down to like 1.6 trillion or something right? I mean like pretty significant movement in the price in like a matter of like 2 weeks. And so >> do you ever get tempted on the private
[18:25] side and also like do you guys go play in tokenized stocks or pers or anything like that? >> We definitely play in all in all aspects but I'm telling you I see every private offer every secondary. It's crazy out there. It's the wild west and everybody's investing in these random SPVS that have fees on fees and you know Anthropic's been a little more prudent in the way they've approached their structured holdings but around open AI around any of these companies it's like one set of investors and then there's a 100 layers below it of SPVS charging one
[18:57] and 10 and two and 20 and you know everyone's like oh I own this and I go do you own it are you on the cap table and 95% of the time they're not because that's literally the original Silicon Valley or major or venture type funds, but you've got all these family offices and new groups being set up just for the purpose of taking advantage. But to me, it's that's where the music's playing a little loud. And you know, there's a lot of money being made off all these things. And you know, as that starts to trickle or come back into the system, that's there could be a lot of stress on
[19:27] it. I forget which hedge fund it was, but they um maybe it was Ken Griffin or somebody had said, you know, I want the guy who wakes up early on Sunday morning and uh lives in London and will go and play online poker because he knows he's going to take advantage of the East Coast people who are just getting home drunk and so like understanding an edge. Um per tokenized stocks, the promises are going to trade 24/7. Right now, most people think of the stock market as, you know, normal hours Monday through
[19:57] Friday. Have you guys started to think about or look at like what are you going to do overnight? What are you going to do on weekends? Like, is there an opportunity to kind of be one of the first institutions to go play in the like off hours or there's just not enough liquidity and you know, anything that is like weird like that kind of scares you early on? >> We've started to dabble in it. You know, eventually the Ken Griffin Citadels of the world, like that's their their world, automated trading and all that. we're never going to be able to compete from a technology basis. Whereas our
[20:27] advantage is really understanding sentiment and seeing something go wrong. You know, we started playing now you get equities that are about to get listed. So when SpaceX was about to get listed, SKH Highix was about to get listed. It's all very active in that market and at night weird stuff happens where there's a little bit of a move and everybody's playing on margin. As soon as someone tricks, tips some, you know, some type of um stop-loss to sell, there isn't a lot of liquidity and somehow these things can go down 10 15% in a matter of an hour and that's when we'll sort of
[20:57] take advantage. So, we have guys who are monitoring through the night. We're pretty good at the, you know, 4:00 a.m. pre-market through, you know, when the regular market opens and right to 7:00 p.m. But, yeah, now it's a different world as we're going to head into a 1 hour break and then keep going. So, we're looking at it and we're taking advantage where we can, but we're not systematic traders. It's more I see I see something's gone wrong and we like we can turn it around in a few minutes and get into the market and start buying. >> How do you guys make uh decisions, right? Like uh one, you've got a big
[21:27] personality. Two, uh you're very good at what you do. Uh three, for anyone who doesn't know, they should go follow you on Instagram. Munching Moaz is incredible follow. Your Instagram stories is like better than anything on television. Um, but I have to imagine that you're not up 24 hours a day. So, something gets dislocated at, you know, 2 am. How do you guys make decisions internally of like, do they have to call you and wake you up or is there kind of like pre-given instructions? Like, just talk through, you know, you're
[21:58] opportunistic, but there's got to be some overlay of decision-m on like what opportunities to take and what not to. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, it's an interesting thing that's constantly evolving for us in that, you know, we sort of operate amongst a pod structure. So, there's a bunch of managers within our group. They're doing different things at different times, but I'm the CIO, the chief investment officer. So, I'm usually the one overlaying. Most people have autonomy to do a certain amount of trading on their own, size, volume, etc. But, uh, after it gets to a certain size, they need to call me. I don't really sleep a lot, which is kind of an
[22:28] advantage where I'm just sort of living and breathing this world. And you know, people think it's crazy, but for me, I I love this life. I love the action of the market, the intellectual honesty of every day knowing whether you're right or wrong, and not being able to, you know, spin it in another way, right? You're either right or you're wrong. The my money's there, it's not. You've lost, you've won. And so, I'm always watching this stuff, but guys know to call me at all hours. I wake up in a second, we're ready to go. I keep a Bloomberg literally beside my bed. I just call literally like it's like one foot out cuz my wife would kill me if it's beside
[22:59] the bed. So I can literally roll out and then move to 2 ft away and there's a machine with six screens ready to ready to go which happens like three four times a night I find. >> Really? >> Yeah. >> So like when you get one of these phone calls in the middle of the night and it's some like a trader calling you what are they calling for and >> they're like hey this just happened and instantly I don't need to think about it. Like I already know what they've told me and I'll know this other than like because there's no real information that comes out in the middle of the night most of the time something went wrong with somebody else and we're taking advantage of it. So you asked how you know AI is you know changing our
[23:31] business landscape. Now I've noticed when there's like reports come out there's like a short report or a buy report and you'd read the report and then read the assessment say is there new information? How are people reacting to it? Nobody reads the report anymore. So what they do is they just drop it into claude or they drop it into chat GPT and then there's a little bit of a summary at the end and then it says oh this guy has this right or that right or might have gotten this or X Y and Zed. We know most of the names that are in the momentum world. So all I'm doing now is looking at the reaction I'm looking
[24:02] at with the summary of what Chappie Chhat GPT or Claude says and I know if they've got something wrong will take advantage of it then cuz the people who are listening to them are trading based on that outcome believing that it's 100% right. And we're finding you know 75% of the time there's something that they've missed or 10 15% of the time they've got the whole thing wrong. So really what you're almost doing is you're trading based off of what Chat GBT is telling everybody else. >> Correct. >> And you find that so far to be a pretty
[24:32] good strategy. >> Yeah. When people say, "Oh, you're going to be out of a job soon." I say, I go, "I think my job and our returns are going to actually get better because everyone else is becoming effectively a robot. They're just listening to another instruction." And if you can be objective and understand why people are doing what they're doing, you can then take advantage of that situation. >> Mhm. Now, uh, in the AI trade, there's companies like SpaceX SI, I think is now the official name. Um, which is supposed to be merging with Tesla, at least that's the rumor. Um, do you look at
[25:04] things like, okay, hey, there's a 50% odds that they're going to merge these companies. Tesla is likely to be the one that is acquired, therefore it has to be traded at a premium, and so you'll like go try to like arb that type of stuff. Or is that too like insider Wall Street type stuff and you're more so like that's not momentum. And so we stay away from it. >> You know, for us, people look at our numbers like we've had very, very, very good performance and I've >> seen them. They're very good. >> Yeah. And they go, "Are you the smartest hedge fund in the world?" And the answer is no. Because I'll avoid situations like Tesla and SpaceX for the most part
[25:36] because it's too there's too many people looking at it, right? Every major fund in the world has four people who worked within that ecosystem and they know it have the network better to have a better educational guess about where something's going to go than us. But step down a few levels down to this world of you know Bitcoin treasury companies or you know autonomous driving small cap things like that. It's a lot of retail investors and us, you know, the larger funds are running the same systems we are, but they have a box that
[26:06] says above five billion, above 10 billion or must trade 100 million a day. And we have the same system, but we'll say I'll look at a small company and I know I have a distinct advantage there versus trying to figure out if SpaceX is going to buy Tesla. >> So, let's say their box is above $5 billion market cap. It has to trade $100 million a day. What is your box like? How low will you look at a $50 million company? You know, the problem is we you came from from humble beginnings. See, I'm always reaching over to pick up the quarter. Probably for not always the, you know, the the best outcome, but I'm
[26:37] if someone shows me a free $5, I'm like, I I I sweat if I can't get it. But generally, you know, we're trying to look at a hund00 million company plus we're trying to put at least four or five million bucks to work. It's just not worth it for, you know, a company of our size to make two 300 grand on something. The opportunity I still love making it, but the opportunity cost is too high. >> Yeah. And when you know I've seen you write very large kind of uh eight figure nine figure checks, right? So like if you'll go from a $5 million check up to a $100 million check, that's very, you know, pretty big universe you could play there. Yeah. No. No. So that's the
[27:08] beauty is I say, "Well, listen, we're open to anything." People are like, "What [snorts] kind of stuff will you invest in?" I go, "If you can show me a way where I can wrap my head around how we're going to make money here, we're happy to take a look at it." And it doesn't matter what it is, where it is, you know, especially when we develop partnerships with people. If you if I make money with you once, chances are then I know you you're you've got luck on your side or you got a good head on your shoulders and it's way more likely for us to convert and do it again. Now, uh this strategy of being a bigger fish in a smaller pond is usually not what people want to do. Most people want to go up, right? They want to be the small
[27:39] fish in a big pond and they want more capital, more uh uh kind of liquidity. You've been somewhat disciplined. I mean, yes, you you have moved up, but you're uh explaining this box and it comes back to the idea of like the guy in London who wakes up early to pick off the, you know, the drunk Americans. Uh you kind of know where your edge is and you have been pretty disciplined in staying in that box. Yeah. And I think that's the truth is that, you know, people say, you know, oh my god, look how much money you've raised your $2.5 billion. And I go, we've made we've made $3 billion. We haven't really taken in
[28:09] any new money. We get net redemptions every year because we don't market. Now, if someone wrote me a check, I usually just cash it. But we're not doing that. Go and take meetings and go to conferences and try and get money. I did that forever when I needed to. Now, I'm better off sitting with my team looking at ideas and you know, if we make a 10% return, that's hundreds of millions of dollars on its own. There's no point raising it. And the idea is we're getting the returns we're doing and getting the situations that we can have an impact because of the size we are.
[28:39] you become too big and you know you're then I have to have an opinion on Tesla and where SpaceX is going. [clears throat] >> Um let's talk about uh the country of Korea. You uh just your reaction alone tells me that you're interested. Why is Korea so important? Korea is a f you know I've been I don't really sleep because I've been literally playing Korea for the last 6 months 8 months and Korea is literally the engine around this whole trade right all the memory companies between Samsung and SKHix just
[29:11] on their own they control the game in terms of memory and you know these companies have gone from relatively been obscure to some of the biggest companies in the world now trillion dollar businesses people don't even realize that Samsung put out their last earnings. It was the largest earnings in the history of the world in a quarter. And people don't half the people don't even know they think Samsung's a TV guy. And you know, these are huge companies that trade. Obviously, they're big
[29:41] market caps, but there was so much rampant speculation around the names. They went from a boom to kind of in this bust, but the earnings for these companies looks insane over the next few years. But again, I get a little bit of hesitation because these are trillion dollar businesses that people should know very well. What advantage do I have on that? Not a lot. But I do understand sentiment. And now that everyone has thrown in the towel, we're going back into Korean names right now because as we've seen this AI selloff, you know,
[30:12] it's funny to me. I I recently wrote this piece about um we're 2% off the S&P all-time high and people are acting like we're in the global financial crisis. I mean, literally this past weekend, people were predicting Black Monday, October 19th, 1987. We're going to get it again in 2026. And uh the number one data point that I saw, which uh I don't think a lot of people realized Friday, last Friday, second largest uh put buying in history. NASDAQ was third largest put buying in history. So, first question I go to like what if the stock
[30:42] market doesn't go down, it goes up. Isn't everyone going to have to just go cover all that stuff? And it looks like that is much more likely going to be the outcome, you know, so far this week. To me, that is almost like you get paid for just not going with the crowd, which I think a lot of hedge fund managers are very nervous about. And in a world where information spreads at, you know, the speed of light, it does feel like people emotionally are much more prone to these like panics and everyone wants to be the smart guy who calls the top of this market.
[31:12] >> No, it's an interesting observation. Like I told you, our our world is, you know, we see people zigg, we zag. And so anyone's put buying, time to get out of the puts and go the other way. And so everybody was talking about the AI trade being the greatest thing in the world. We kind of stayed away. And then now everyone's like, this it's murder inc there. You can't buy anything. So core like, oh my god, Cororey is going bankrupt, which is, you know, obviously trades at a high book uh value, but it wasn't going bankrupt in the day. And they go, we've never seen as much put buying in core in one I had the CD
[31:42] citadel guys in to our office on Thursday and in the morning they we've never seen as much put buying in the last I go it's time to buy time to buy cororeweave and we bought cor on the Thursday and then it ripped eventually and I'm like you know what and everyone's like okay we got to get back into cori I go time to get rid of cororeweave and so you're seeing that that now you're getting paid a good amount of money you know to buy some of these companies at cheap multiples if you believe they even have a future a couple of years of earnings. >> What do you think uh the average holding period is for a position for you guys?
[32:12] uh >> days, weeks, months, years. >> Uh I would say it's weeks to weeks to months. The larger the trade, we're in for longer, but we're turning over a lot of deals. We're turning a lot of stuff around sentiment and, you know, well, some companies will hold for, you know, a couple of years, but some, you know, are are literally around the momentum. So, I I I was talking to my team and they go, "You really want to get into the memory trade?" I go, "Everyone's gone risk off. They don't want it." I go, I'm not playing the long-term game here, but as things stabilize, you'll get a 10 15% jump in a matter of days or
[32:43] a matter of weeks, and at that point, I can just rerate and get out. Now, um, when I think about, uh, kind of these shorter, uh, holding periods, the first thing that I think about is how much money do you think is the most that Anson funds ever made in a single day? >> Um, like what was the best trade? I remember once we played an arbitrage around the National Bank of Greece during a recap, which is a long time ago, and we we we made like $80 million in that day, which was huge way back then. We we we have days where we make,
[33:14] you know, there's a big cuz we're very conservative on the way we mark things. So, we don't take it unless there's liquidity and the the positions unlocked. But, you know, we have days where we can make, you know, 2 3 4%. But, it's very rare. Like, we're we're more singles, doubles, that that sort of our world. you know, just sort of stay under the radar. As long as we get a lot of at bats, we know we got a high batting average and we're just going to keep pounding those out. Single, double, single, double. >> Now, uh, with the Bank of Greece, uh, when you see a huge move like that in a single day, do you just immediately get out and say, "Hey, we'll take our money
[33:44] and IR's off the charts and see you later." >> We're pretty objective. You know, I tell companies that we're, you know, we're here for a good time, not a long time. You know what I mean? Like, and but we're going to be your friend, right? We're there when you need us. And as things get good, that means you don't really need us anymore. Let us exit because inadvertently there are going to be trip up, trick up hiccups, etc. And then we'll be back to be there again. So I say guys, some people get offended. They go, why would you sell? We're here for that. And I go, listen, this is not our game. If you have everyone acting the way the management wants you to act,
[34:15] >> you know, you're you're you're not going to do well. where I say, "Listen, you've got a few guys who are doing X, a few guys doing Y, a few guys doing Z. You know, we'll be around, but at least we'll be there when you need us the next time." When we go and we look uh forward, everyone is very obsessed with the short sellers. We've seen, you know, the Michael Burries of the world, they've become famous, the housing trade, all this stuff. You used to do a lot of single name shortselling, not as much anymore. Maybe explain why you don't do that, but then also talk about this idea of long activism rather than
[34:45] short activism. Yeah, you know, short selling is a is a hard game, especially we've been in this, you know, perennial bull market. You know, it's very difficult to short. So, yeah, people look at Michael Bur and, you know, guys like that, but most people who short are gone. You know, I work with guys >> Michael Bur is a substack writer. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, but I mean like in terms of their ability to, you know, you know, get capital people are all, you know, remember same thing for institutional investors. Everyone's chasing the idea. If something hasn't worked, they don't want it. So, nobody says, "Oh, I need to short now because it's it's it's time is going to come."
[35:15] They're like, "This hasn't worked for years. I don't want it anymore." I don't really know any managers who really short. They just buy puts and they have hedge strategies or they short a basket. No one actually is trying to short to make alpha, which inadvertently should make it easier, right? It's the opposite of the zigg and the zag. No one's avoiding it. And everyone's avoiding it. Time to look at it. But because it's more difficult, yeah, we've kind of pivoted away. And as you get bigger, there's not as much money to be made single shorting. And then you know like the volatility we've seen since you know the co era is immense. So you really got
[35:47] to be careful. So you know short activism is important to the market and people have done somewhat well but in a in a when the wind is facing the other way is very hard to go in that other direction. So yeah we've we've started um a group doing long activism where again there's a lot of super smart massive companies doing this you know Elliot Starboard etc. We're running the again running the same system but instead of saying above 5 billion 10 billion we can look at a billion and below and inadvertently we can have a
[36:18] larger stake where there's a lot of retail investors fragmented and start working with management teams or trying to affect change that can yield that type of return on an absolute basis and on a IR basis to make it worthwhile for us. I hope you're enjoying this conversation. But before we continue, most of you know I live in New York City. And when I try to go to sleep, it is noisy as hell outside. There's trucks, there's sirens, there's all kinds of noise, including people just yelling and screaming for no damn reason late at night. That's why I'm so excited to tell you about the Fit Nexa Somni
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[38:52] Investorhealth.com. Go long on life. Investoralth is a telealth platform, not a medical provider. Medical services are provided by affiliated licensed clinicians. Compounded medications are not FDA approved. Individual results may vary. And treatment requires evaluation by a licensed provider. Terms and conditions apply. See investorhealth.com. >> You know my favorite Elliot story ever. >> No. Argentinian warship. You know the story? >> No. He uh he one time I think he had
[39:22] Argentinian bonds and he bought them, you know, 25 cents on the dollar or whatever. And uh I forget all the exact details, but basically he was like, "Well, you got to pay me back par." And they were like, "Uh, no, we're not going to do that. We'll strike some deal." And he just didn't like the deal terms. And so he hired essentially mercenaries and they went and they confiscated an Argentinian warship like in a port. And he was like, "That's my collateral." and [clears throat] he had like a showdown with the government. And I remember reading that just being like, "Do you understand what a gangster you got to be
[39:52] to play not only the kind of arbitrage and short and you know do but to go up against the government and then be like, by the way, we're taking our collateral." I mean, that is a different game that is, you know, if you're looking at momentum and sentiment going after the warship, it feels like a whole different ballgame that most people just aren't prepared to do. >> Yeah. I I don't think we're at that level to going into seize seizing ships. I'm I'm guessing that story is a little more nuanced than um than what you're saying, but um the idea is trying to
[40:22] work with management teams and saying, "Listen, we all have the same objective to the most part that we want the stock price up." And we're saying, you know, either divesting a certain asset or doing a buyback or, you know, going and making another acquisition or just putting yourself up for sale sometimes is the best thing to do. And you know, at sometimes you get management teams that are appreciative of them and sometimes you don't. And the idea is saying, listen, we're willing to go to bat. We're willing to, you know, try and affect change through board changes or through making a little bit of noise. We think it's important. And I think
[40:52] there's a little more, it's a little more fragmented on the smaller end of the market. >> What is the best long activist campaign that you've had? Like where have you guys really gone spent a lot of time and you've seen the impact? >> You know, we've we've had some success in uh in Canada REITs. You know, real estate has been terrible and inadvertently when everyone zigs we zag. we've done there a clear channel in the US you know getting companies to you know put on um a campaign like putting on a campaign to bring more awareness
[41:22] about what could actually happen and then getting either management changes or them to act on bringing on certain people around the the board or divesting of assets or buying stock back or putting themselves out to sale. It it works a lot of the times but it's a lot of effort right now. You know, we're in one campaign right now with Lionsgate, the big uh movie producer, and you know, it it's it's got a great runway. It's got a great stable business. They they've done well in the the big campaigns going on, but these things take time. >> What what is the argument for Lionscape?
[41:53] Like, what do you want them to do? >> You know, I ideally you think a company like that, you know, either needs to find a way to get the price up that they should be, you know, the everything is consolidating in that world. You've seen the everything around Netflix, everything moving to streamers. There's a lot of people that would appreciate this business. And the idea is if you ran a proper process, it's probably worth a lot more than where it's trading at today. >> And so you want them to sell the business. >> That would be in an ideal world. Yes. >> Yeah. And why do they not want to sell? >> You know, I I think they they're trying to do the right thing. They're exploring the exploring um what's out there. But
[42:25] inadvertently, everyone thinks that they're just about to have something great, right? So they'll talk about the pipeline of new movies coming and but you know sometimes you know a burn in the hand is worth more than you know more in the bush. >> Mhm. Uh Madna you uh you think is uh not going to do well. >> Madna again was the was the bell of the ball the darling during co and you know again I try and stay away from these huge huge businesses but again sentiment always seems to find me and Madna's been
[42:55] on a tear up you know 100% in the last little while. they've announced or it's a really nuanced thing where they basically said that they were running uh a trial around you know a nuanced cancer treatment and they have cancer. I heard >> that exactly that's the perception out there that they've been able to cure every cancer and the stock is trading as such and they haven't released the details associated with the efficacy of the trial and so they're going to do that in the next 10 days but no one everybody was short the stock because
[43:25] they believed it to be overvalued before all this came out. It's for sure worth more than that point, but it's probably not worth another 100%. But every smart manager I've talked to who's in that healthcare biotech world says, "I already lost money. I'm not shorting it or I'm going to short it just before or it's too risky." But it's pricing like like you said, the retail perception is it's solving all cancer. And so for me, it's like, you know, buy on rumor, you know, sell on news. The earnings in my opinion should mark the end or even before it because there's a lot of guys
[43:55] who play the momentum and they don't want to wait for the binary outcome either. So they start selling a few days before. So you know it's >> short it going into the earnings and basically >> the readout the readout. Yeah. And so the readout happens and the idea is that they won't wait till the 31st or whatever. It'll happen in the next few days in my opinion. >> Now uh what if they did cure cancer? You know, that's why you got to be, you know, we're doing a little nervous. Yeah. No, for sure. [laughter] And and but again, you know, what do we do? We play an expected value game and we're
[44:25] not going to be 100% right. We're not going to be 100% wrong. It's, you know, where are where's the expected value lie? And so for me, like you said, there is a chance that somehow, you know, and again, you realize that your limitations too. What do I really know about efficacy and data around cancer? Not a lot, but I'm good at understanding the different players around it and who owns what. And there aren't a lot of legit bigger institutions sticking around here. So, they already believe it's overvalued and it's a lot of retail guys going crazy talking about solving full
[44:55] cancer. And remember, this is a weird one because it's a lot of people are emotional when it comes to cancer, right? They know someone with cancer, this and that. They want to believe that these guys are going to be the holy grail, but it's affecting their judgment on if it's a good investment or not. I want to cure all cancer, but at the end of the day, is this going to be the guy to do it? And are you getting paid, you know, the right price for the risk you're taking? Let's talk about prediction markets. Uh, I find it very interesting if you look at them as a source of information. Um, now there's
[45:25] not a lot of liquidity in many of these markets, so you got to be careful that, you know, one guy is just not in there manipulating the market inadvertently. But, uh, I think the promise of these is that we should be able to build much more, uh, clear pictures. So, for example, if there are markets on a bunch of individual data points going into an earnings report, you should be able to see, well, what does the market think if Tesla's going to beat on car deliveries or not? Is, you know, Tesla going to beat on EPS or not? And as you kind of build out this profile, it's kind of the wisdom of the crowd. Is that all or do you actually think that
[45:56] the prediction markets can be a source of information for you guys? >> Uh, I love this prediction marketing stuff. I think the people I say the the reason people do things is around incentive. So if your incentive is aligned, you know, things follow through. And so now people have an ability to bet on stuff where they have a distinct advantage. And it's weird cuz it's a lot of insider trading and things people are doing that. But for me to see it, I know the the people putting up the money irrespective of where they got the
[46:27] not is incredibly accurate. And so it's better than polling data like when I'm looking at voting and elections. It's better than everything because the guy you're asking about the Tesla car delivery is probably a guy who's physically working on Tesla car deliveries who's making those bets is what you're seeing all the time. So for me it's extremely telling to see where prediction markets are versus other things and we use it to our advantage all the time. I I've talked to regulators about this, right? Like if you are uh let's say for just use a uh
[46:57] illustrious uh example, illustrative example. Um you work at the windshield manufacturer. You have no clue about anything to do with Tesla other than your business, which is private, has produced more windshields than last quarter. You probably don't have to be Albert Einstein to think that, hey, maybe they're going to be delivering more vehicles. And so you don't have information about their company, but you are taking your day-to-day job and you're using it to invest in the market. Is that insider trading? I don't know. Like this is where regulators got to
[47:28] figure this stuff out. And then it's like, okay, well uh how deep does that go, right? Cuz what if you're not the actual uh company that is a vendor to Tesla? What if you're the component manufacturer that sends it to someone who's then the vendor? And so you start getting in this weird world where like people have way more information than they've ever been able to express. And so sounds like from a hedge fund manager standpoint like you don't care where the information is coming from because that's not you. You're just looking at it from a data standpoint and understanding how to actually invest
[47:58] your capital based on what the prediction markets are saying. >> Yeah. like we're looking at it as one variable to making an investment that if something seems we're not going to just if I see someone you know buying up Tesla deliveries it's not going to make me want to buy Tesla stock but it is going to affect my calculus around the situation you know going down into the you know that black hole of is it allowed or ethical or legal I got no idea right but I know the people who are playing in that generally have better information than not and so the truth is
[48:29] what we're seeing There is what happens with larger funds all the time, right? They're they're looking at Apple. They don't really look at Apple. They're looking at every chip supplier and every little silicon chip and silicon piece and this and that and they're speaking with all the other guys and then they're pumping it into a model and they're getting figuring out better information where I don't have that ability to do. So, I don't really make a prediction on Apple. Well, they also are looking if Tim Cook, you know, walks out of the office and goes left or right every Thursday, you know, does that mean that earnings are going to go up or down or how long the Fed chairman talks >> or they're watching the tail number of
[48:59] how many times he's flying here or doing that. There's a lot of interesting ways that people are, you know, deriving data, but for us, I'm I'm a participant who just watches everybody else and then I'll make a decision based on the output. >> So, you're you're using it as information, but you guys are not participating in terms of you're not actually investing in the prediction markets themselves. >> No, we don't invest in the prediction markets. >> Okay, let's talk about social media. Uh although you are uh prolific on Instagram uh and for those that don't know it's highly entertaining. You have to go and follow it. >> It's around it's around food and fun. So people say you know why do you do this? And I say I just love you know
[49:30] socialization. I love meeting people. So I have this my Instagram munching moes. I'm munching m o ez. Um and it's just stories around food and fun and interesting people and you know once in a while it's a investment theme and stuff that we're doing. >> All right chef. What do we got here? Yeah, we like to showcase chefs, you know, show different types of food, different types of things going on, and I enjoy it, but some people say it's too much, but you know, you got to have >> It's incredibly entertaining. I love watching it. Um, but social media, most people are not on Instagram using social media. Uh, given that you guys will do
[50:00] long activism, do you guys use social media in any way? Do you guys put out reports? Do you uh think that social media can be a piece of driving returns for the hedge fund? We we use the data around social media. We don't really use social media ourselves to put out a report or anything like that. You know, we're governed, you know, SEC regulations, OCE regulations in Canada. So, we don't really we just stay away from that world. But, you know, if we're we're looking at retail investors, right? We're looking at sentiment. And in order to gauge sentiment, you have to
[50:30] really understand what people are thinking. So we have software and analytics that sort of looks at, you know, how many people are talking positively about a name negatively and when there's a divergence and when things are really, you know, turning on an uptrend or downtrend and taking advantage of that cuz the retail guys inadvertently all go online and chat about it and then you can just start to find patterns and that can help you with your decision-m process. >> Mhm. What what do you think has uh over the last five years, six years with all of these changes that generally I think
[51:01] have democratized access, given people more participation, there's all these fintexs that now are empowering access to the market. What are the downsides? Like is it just like more gambling in the market may not be good for the individual investor? I think the downside is people believe they have an advantage more than they do because they think they have access to information and news and other people. But guys like us, you know, funds are successful because we're taking advantage of that euphoria. Like I link I the I the imagery I give is that, you know, we're
[51:32] like the casino, right? Someone else is coming in and making these bets and yeah, once in a while once in a while a guy is going to hit a slot winner or get blackjack, but for the most part people leave that game a little more disgruntled than when they came in. >> Yeah, makes sense. uh space you guys have started to spend more time on as well. Kind of one of these themes that uh was contrarian starting to become consensus. Obviously SpaceX IPO uh has helped with that. What are you guys doing there? What are you interested in? >> Yeah, like you know what the these are big themes going forward but you know
[52:03] everyone gets way too excited too early. So, you know, we were there underwriting a couple of names and a couple of on that theme, but you know, everyone is extrapolating that, you know, we're going to be in space and driving cars and doing all this in short order and it doesn't seem that's going to be the case. And so, these things are more nuanced and they're more boring cuz there's not there's no data and news every day. Like, this is a theme that may work out over time, but you can't have 10% of your money in in these types of names. It's just it's too speculative
[52:34] in nature and it's too long of a period to underwrite. >> We're going to be driving the cars in space. I don't know if you heard that, right? Just like put all the themes together and uh >> and the thrusters will take you up there, right? >> Yeah. Well, you flip the car, drive drive over traffic, whatever. Are you Are you going to buy uh one of the Teslas that can jump over traffic? >> You know, I I drive a Mini Cooper, you know. I I sort of like that. Do you really? Yeah, I do. A convertible Mini Cooper. And so, I like just whipping around getting >> a convertible. Okay. Sorry, >> that's like four grand more. But um the idea is you know I like the maneuverability of being around a
[53:04] go-kart. not really a car guy per se, but I appreciate the the technology and you know the genius around the R&D and you know I was one of the first guys people always talked about shorting Tesla and I go you [snorts] can't call it a car company right this is a technology company first around the batteries then around autonomous driving there's always something but you know valuations are pretty deep now so it's hard to say that it's value but again I come back to I got no advantage one way or the other on something like that >> let's talk about spaxs uh spaxs seem to
[53:34] have had a heyday, went away, now have come back. What is back down again? >> Yeah. What what is your current uh evaluation of the spa market and something that you are excited about, not excited about? >> Yeah. No, you know what? It's funny. The the spaxs move with sentiment and so spacks were all the rage at one point during COVID and then it came back down and you know, we we've done a spa together and you know, spaxs were getting hyped up the last 6 months, but you know, you mentioned the S&P is only 2% below its all-time high. the momentum name is not in the same world. So
[54:05] Russell names and IWM and they're all down 20 25%. And when you go risk off on more the momentum retail world, it hurts the spa market. So spaxs have gone back down to being where they were speculative, they were trading above their treasury, but what they were yielding based on their money in the bank to now being pretty cheap where you get guys like Michael Klene who's, you know, been one of the godfathers in the spa world. you know, it's had unbelievable exits, only got to actually have bigger exits in the last few years and his things were being bit up and
[54:36] suddenly a lot of them have come back down to treasury. So, we're looking at names that you have bigger sponsors, guys who have a huge network, access to good financing. That's an interesting one where like as you know, spaxs, your risk is only backed down to treasury. So, and you can leverage them up at a at a decent level with the bank because you can't really lose a lot of money. So, we're we're we're nimling again on the spa market itself. All right. Um, when you look out over, uh, I don't know, next 10 years, you're based in Canada. Advantage or disadvantage?
[55:07] >> Well, we're kind of in a trade war right now, but uh, you know, >> we're going to get to that in a second. From an investor standpoint, like I could make an argument that you're not in the like day-to-day craziness of like every single guy uh, with an idea is coming in through your office cuz they have to go to Canada to come see you. Uh, at the same time though, it's this virtual world and so like you can jump on Zoom, you know, quickly. So, like how do you think about location as an advantage or disadvantage? >> Uh, I think it's an advantage in that, you know, you you're not in the circus every day. When you're sort of in the circus, you don't realize you're in it.
[55:37] So, we're one step removed that we can be in any >> bay street. >> We're on the bay. Yeah, the we're right literally physically on Bay Street in the in the Brookfield. Like, literally, I never thought I'd be there, but we're literally at the at that level where, you know, everything's around, but it's Canada. It's just banks and resource companies. Nothing really for us to do in Canada. 90% of what we do is in the US. And so it's an advantage because you get a lot of people who are smart who started in Canada and then they want to go abroad. They work in New York, Hong Kong, and then they want to come back and start a family because Canada is a great place. And then there aren't a lot
[56:08] of hedge funds to work at. So we get unbelievable people that we can hire and bring a part of our team. And that's an advantage we see. But also when you get a new industry, Canada is a little easier to start. So that's where the cannabis companies came. That's where the crypto companies came. And because there's not a lot of hedge funds involved in these new types of markets, you know, we're probably the first and only call. So, we do pretty well from that perspective as well. >> All right. So, uh I know you know, uh Ford was uh Premier Ford. Is that right? Premier Ford. Uh Trump down here in the
[56:40] US. Him and Ford, they've been going jawing at each other back and forth. Maybe we just strike like a little peace deal between you and I to then bring to them and say, "Hey, America and Canada should get along." >> It's It's not a bad It's not a bad uh thing to do. guys want to join up. You you want to join America? I >> I don't think we want to join America. We appreciate you being a good partner and our our next door neighbor, but uh you know, I think we we both do better as uh independence. >> Kevin Olri, fellow Canadian. He says, uh maybe the Canadians just want to become American. >> Kevin Kevin is my neighbor in in Mskoka, which is best place in the world to
[57:10] visit. It's like the Hampton's times 10 if anyone wants to come visit. We we throw live music parties four nights a week. But we talk about this and that, you know, obviously Kevin has a lot of stuff around the joking, but he I think he appreciates what Canada is and you know, obviously he he has a a big successful show here, but Canada is a great place. We've got a great thing, but we're also ready to be a great partner. And obviously, you know, your president has identified certain things that a lot of countries aren't stepping up in regards to defense and in regards to, you know, their oblations,
[57:42] immigration, the whole thing. But like, you know, we're better off being friends than foes, I believe. >> 100%. And I think that I don't want to speak for anybody else, but like I think that most Americans understand that. And uh uh it's almost this like uh hey, let's all get on the same page. And then like being friends in a united front is obviously very helpful especially in a world where we have shared adversaries who you know maybe not be may not be as excited about uh the powers that can come from a united front of uh all the western hemisphere countries. No, for
[58:13] sure. There's it's a game being played. You know, eventually you just got to you got to work through it and you know, like it's like brothers at the end of the day. Sometimes you fight, sometimes you don't. Sometimes it's longer, more protracted and but eventually you get back and you realize we have such common interest that we're better off being on the same side. >> Did you cry when the US won the Olympic gold medal in hockey? >> I was not happy for sure. I was there and um I made a bet and I go, you know what, you bet on your own team. You don't need to. Like there's just you're going to be happy either way. But they as they played that first period, I was like, "We're going to win this game."
[58:43] And I, you know, now with this interactive world, you can make more bets at the time. And I go, "This is going to get better and better right to the end." But, you know, you can't win it all. But, uh, you DM'd me, I don't know if you remember. I cuz I posted I said, "If America beats Canada in the gold medal hockey, uh, you guys got to become American." And you just responded was just like, "Lol." [laughter] >> But, but here's the thing is I I do think um, maybe where we'll end is you do a lot of philanthropic stuff. Um, one of them which I think is probably the coolest thing that you do uh is you support a lot of the Olympic athletes,
[59:14] right? Explain a little bit what uh you and your family do there. >> Yeah, you know, we we have a foundation. We instead of calling it a foundation, we call it an equity fund where we're looking to provide equity, but we're looking to get a return on equity. So, using the same hedge fund strategy model in philanthropy and so, you know, in Canada, we don't get a lot of philanthropy around sports and athletes. And I'm on the Canadian Olympic board and you know I I was talking to athletes who are on the board and they go man you don't know how hard it is. We we we do so well and we got no support. I'm like there's never they're like half of them are on welfare and they're getting
[59:44] 18,000 or $20,000 a year. But people don't understand that in the business world or just general generalizations that go on in Canada. And so I'm like listen why don't we identify athletes who are heading to the medal heading to the Olympics within the last 6 months to a year and provide them last mile funding. How can you know how can they go from what we call we call great to gold and saying listen if we got you extra coaching if we got you to an extra regata if we got you better technology how much better can you do and I said
[60:14] listen I'll just pilot it myself and myself and my partner Adrien Rocka we did it with our own money and then we we expanded and expanded and we showed that you know we sponsored 10% of the athletes which weren't even the best cuz the best already had real sponsors they didn't need extra money and we got 30% of the medals and then we repeated it in the in the Winter Olympics. And so now we're bringing more awareness. But it's fun because we have guys internally in our office. They're crunching the data. They're looking at this and say, "Oh my god, these guys are crushing it with old
[60:44] skates or an old bobsled or without going to nine events a year. Imagine if we can turn that headwind into a tailwind. What can they do?" And so we're really excited about that. >> I love it. All right. where uh other than munching Moaz on Instagram, where can we send people to find out more about Anen? >> Uh you know anenf funs.com and and we're on you're on social media, Twitter, this and that or LinkedIn. We're we're all over and we're we're happy to engage. People throw ideas at us and we'll respond and we're happy to open kimono and the stuff we're doing. It's sort of
[61:14] we it's enjoyment. I sort of love this uh love this world. >> I love it. All right. Thanks for doing it. We'll do it again soon. >> Thank you.

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