Bitcoin se une a los agentes de IA y todo cambia

[0:00] If you look at Bitcoin, but really all crypto, it it holds a special um use case as it pertains to repossession rights and how you can lock it up without tremendous uh repossession costs. And so you don't have that against real world assets. You don't have that against gold. You don't have that against any physical goods. Like think [music] about, you know, going and repossessing a car. Um, if the car is not worth very much, it's more expensive
[0:30] to repossess it than the value of the collateral. And so that becomes an unllindable asset. What's going on guys? Today we got a great conversation with Tilman Holloway and Andrew Parish. They're the co-founders of Arch Public. And in this conversation, we go into some interesting topics. First, we talk about tokens. Did you ever think about the fact that there's compute tokens and there's tokens in crypto? What's the history of tokens? Why is it important? How's it going to change your life? Why are the AI agents taking over at the intersection of AI, Bitcoin, crypto, tokenization, and many other technologies that are all coming together in the exact same way? And then
[1:00] we talk about 24/7 markets, volatility, how these guys are investing, and what they have built to help people navigate all of the future of finance. Here's my latest conversation with these two geniuses at Arch Public. All right, Telman, we've seen a huge surge in the interest of AI and Bitcoin. The intersection here it is very obvious I think that the AI agent ecosystem is going to be way bigger than people thought which means the addressable market for lots of technologies just got significantly bigger. What are you guys seeing when it comes to this intersection of AI, Bitcoin, crypto u
[1:31] and kind of the future of these digital technologies? >> Yeah, I think it's a really interesting intersection of um you know agents are going to be the the prolific users of crypto. uh agents can be created instantly. They don't have to become adults to start using um you know wallets and transactions for hash rate or for compute power. Uh that's going to be the commodity that's going to be needed to be traded against most and
[2:02] they need a form by which they can do that. Tokens if you will. That's what we actually call them right now. So, um, that's one of the things that I think is just going to grow exponentially over the next 5 years. We're going to see it. But I also think that the debt, uh, attached to crypto and what it can be from a collateral perspective is probably the most interesting part. If you look at real estate, for example, and you say, okay, well, why have there been more millionaires created on the back of real estate in the US? It's
[2:33] because you can borrow against real estate very easily from any local bank and there's a systematic flow of capital that allows them those local banks to sell that debt. And if you look at Bitcoin, but really all crypto, it it holds a special um use case as it pertains to repossession rights and how you can lock it up without tremendous uh repossession costs. And so you don't have that against real world assets. You don't have that against gold. You don't
[3:05] have that against any physical goods. Like think about, you know, going and repossessing a car. Um if the car is not worth very much, it's more expensive to repossess it than the value of the collateral. And so that becomes an unlendable asset. And so if you want to include the most people in the economy, you have to lower the barriers of entry, which crypto uh and specifically Bitcoin then become the most preferred form of collateral because it's the easiest to
[3:36] repossess. And you can write smart contracts that govern specific things that have to happen. And if they don't happen, it's not a, you know, a judge and jury that has to decide it through an expensive litigation process. It's literally a smart contract that decides instantly the settlement takes place. So, I think that when we start seeing uh crypto lending available to the general public, you're going to see a mushroom cloud of activity that's going to really, you know, follow because I think
[4:06] that the the uh loan rates are going to be lower against that collateral because the repossession costs are lower and and they're going to pass some of that on to induce usage. uh is what my argument would be. >> I think we're going to see a collision course of AI and finance uh much quicker than we think. Um and I think that's going to be um accelerated with uh 24/7 markets cuz they're coming and they're coming fast. uh the NYSE, the NASDAQ,
[4:38] the CME, all of the the larger, let's call it, pipes and levers associated with uh trading uh any asset across the United States have all signed deals and have all put out press releases saying, "We're we're almost ready to go on 24/7 trading." Well, how do you facilitate 24/7 trading when all the humans that do that from 9:30 to 4 are asleep from 9:30 p.m. to 4:00 a.m. Anyways, well, you're going to have to have aic tools, agents,
[5:10] if you would that are facilitating that activity during that time period. So, those systems are being built, those systems, frankly, are being built here at Arch Public. Um, and so you you you have to have something acting out your will on your behalf at 2:00 a.m. because markets will be open at 2:00 a.m. In the same way that crypto markets are open at 2 a.m., uh, traditional markets are going to be open at 2 a.m. It's all that
[5:41] Morgan Stanley or Black Rockck want to talk about. Tokenize this, tokenize that. There was just a new headline today that Black Rockck has signed a deal with Ono associated with you know tokenized real world assets and what it means for them. So the biggest players in the world of finance both exchanges, custodians um and then you know product producers um you know have all been invited to the SEC to have meetings about 247 trading.
[6:14] So it's going to happen. So then the next question is what is the collision between AI and finance? Shortterm it's that you are going to have to have systems that act out both institutional and retail retail customers will at 1:00 a.m. 2 a.m. 3:00 a.m. 4:00 a.m. while markets are still open and active. Um that's that's coming very very quickly. >> You know what's interesting? I never really thought about it before, but the word tokens, what that means, there are
[6:45] tokens in crypto, there are tokens in AI, and I never thought about the overlap on that. What do you think the ramifications are? Is that just like the the future is going to be built on tokens and some of them will be financial tokens, some of them will be compute tokens, maybe there's other form of tokens going forward, but like this is the world we live in now. >> Absolutely. a token is nothing more than in my mind an encrypted either fungeable or nonfgeable representation of value. Uh and so if you look at the that going
[7:16] forward, we're moving against all physical, you know, there's a lot of businesses in spite of it, I think, still being illegal, refuse to take cash. Now we're moving to a cashless society. And and there's a lot of arguments um that are valuable on both sides of, you know, whether we should do that, whether it's good, but I think the economic value that lies on the other side of that rainbow is too hard to ignore. Um, and what I mean by that is like there's a lot of people unbanked in this world, like four billion plus
[7:47] people that would would or could be included if there was a way to include them. And you know, the cost barrier to having customers is a real thing in a capitalist society. And so it's like at a certain level customers like Louis Vuitton isn't excability perspective like where where when do they become attractive to a bank enough
[8:18] for them to start participating in the banking space and I think blockchain lowers the bar better than any current system has ever lowered it by by orders of magnitude. And so it it allows everyone to participate. And I think the the tokens um whether you know we called them cryptocurrency or or you're a Bitcoin maxi or at the end of the day it they're all tokens, right? They're just representations of value that are digitally stored. Um and and that is the
[8:50] future because that's going to be the way in which e-commerce allows 4 billion more people to come online. And and when you talk about a global economy and you talk about breaking down the walls that uh proclude, you know, fiat from being instantly converted and transferred and sent anywhere globally. I think we're literally in the midst of watching that break down. And and it's exciting because I think if done correctly and
[9:22] you know if um if proof of work still it means something that we're going to have a backs stop from a security perspective for for a very long time that we can rely on as a people, you know, as the users themselves and not have to trust other people for that. >> Well, you know, tokens have been around a lot longer than we realize. there was a a forefather of tokens um and really was ahead of his time back in the early 80s. His name was Chuck E. Cheese. I I I don't know if you guys
[9:52] remember that guy, but uh you had you had to move your money into tokens before you played any games at his establishments, right? So, uh Chuck E. Cheese was the forefather of tokens. But in all seriousness, it's a good point to be made associated with tokens that there's value that's going to be moved back and forth between those entities, right? Financial tokens and compute tokens. Uh again, I think we're we're on the precipice of meaningful collision uh
[10:23] of those worlds um and what it looks like and the speed and pace and ease at which those two worlds can work together. We're we're we're headed there very quickly. >> This episode is brought to you by Lava. The Lava card is the first credit card that allows you to earn up to 5% back in Bitcoin on every single purchase. Most cards have steep annual fees and unclear points programs. But the Lava card offers a much better deal. Earn real Bitcoin every time that you spend. Plus, there's no annual fee. There's zero FX
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[12:25] some of the products that are starting to take hold, you have these almost new types of networks. So Instinct is uh now having if I have an agent, my wife has an agent, those two agents can know they're in a trusted network and so they're likely to work together or collaborate. Well, money becomes a core component of that, right? H who's paying for what? How does it, you know, transfer between these two people? Then you go and you look at some of these B2B type products like well my vendor I should have a different relationship my agent and their agent than somebody who
[12:56] is cold pitching me off the street that is in the same business but isn't currently my vendor. And so trust becomes a very interesting element of this where it's almost like people are willing to allow the agents and the technology to automate more when they've already kind of whitelisted. And we know whitelisting obviously exists in crypto and and wallets and you know kind of uh the the token world on on the finance side. But when you start to merge this stuff together in a very weird way you are trying to replicate the way that human relationships work. I trust this
[13:26] person therefore I'm willing to do business with them. But you're also doing it where you're kind of turning the keys over to the AI too, right? You're kind of saying like hey you know I trust Andrew my AI his AI like go figure it out. You guys worry about that at all? like that does that increase security concerns or anything like that? >> I think there's going to be, you know, an evolution of security iterations that make it more secure and easier to use. I think Grockbot's probably the best
[13:57] recent example of that from a userfriendly user user um you know experience perspective. It's by far the best and it has a lot of checks and balances in, you know, what it's doing for you. It's acting in a lot of ways like a personal assistant where it's going and doing a lot of the leg work, but it's bringing it back to you for final approval before it's sent out. And so I think that you can uh code around those problems. I do think that the
[14:27] trusted layer is a really interesting um thing that we've even seen um ourselves. And so Slack is a great example of that. Like Slack is a well-known and wellused platform for both internal um you know efforts within a company but then also you can bring and collaborate with external parties very effectively as well. that becomes a really interesting API integration between Grogbot and Slack because then Slack can be that
[14:57] trusted layer where you know that there are no you know everyone in that Slack channel um is approved or whitelisted if you will and so I think that's going to be a major component moving forward as it pertains to how you parse out permissions to what your agent can do and what it can't do. it's going to find itself trapped in sandboxes that you purposely put it in. So that and even siloing your your bots is a is an effective means to do this. Like even
[15:28] within Grockbot, you can silo out, you know, five different bots and and not allow them to see across the fence, if you will, so that you're getting some checks and balances or some redundant, you know, um precautionary measures as it pertains to things being sent out without getting additional oversight. I love the fact that we can have these conversations and I can have a supercomputer here to do uh live research and uh my real-time research I just looked up what's the history of tokens where does that come from and it goes back to the 1950s and60s and tokens
[16:00] originally came computer scientists borrowed it from linguistics this whole idea of being able to take a chunk of text as you know some sort of of parser they then put that into compilers so that they could actually use those programming languages uh and the source code would use those uh those tokens for keywords, operators, identifiers, etc. And then in the 80s and 90s, networking and security, there was IBM introduced the token ring network, the ability to pass the tokens around so that you could do authentication. Um and then even taking it further with things like RSA,
[16:31] secure ID, authentication credentials, and being able to actually give people access. And then the history goes right immediately into the subword tokenization in AI in the mid210s. and it talks about a bunch of things that are way too smart for me. But the general idea is that it is using these like data compression algorithms and it's trying to figure out how do you take text and actually translate that into the machine. Now the reason why I think that's interesting is uh um one of the best lines of probably last two or three years is the hottest
[17:02] programming language is English and now you can just simply in natural language describe to the machine here's what I want to do and it will go and it will actually create that that product for you. Well, that's kind of what we're getting in finance now. Like, you're now starting to be able to be like, "Hey, you know, I want to uh I want my agent to work 24/7. The market's 24/7 in crypto. Eventually, you're going to get stocks doing 24/7. I don't want to sit and click a bunch of drop downs and figure out all like just like do this for me." Like, you know, uh the joke of like, uh, you know, hey Claude, make me money. Make no mistakes.
[17:34] >> Yeah. >> Is you know, you guys are probably one of the closest versions of this so far. But like describe a little bit how you're thinking about natural language, you know, description and and you know, the automation of this, but also operating in a 24/7 market where humans are just illpositioned, you know, better or worse, like we do need to sleep and and uh maybe live our lives, touch grass, you know, while while markets are still trading. >> Well, the notion of creating an all powerful genie that you can turn loose with your wallet and say, "Go make me money is a fool's errand. It's it's it's
[18:04] sexy on, you know, face value because agents do seem very powerful, but when you peel back that onion, you realize like you're a slave to the amount of compute power that you have behind you. Um, and if you think you have a disadvantage now trading, compare your compute power to pretty much any company and you're you're you're way down the totem pole. So that that's that's not the way to look at it. The way to look at AI in the markets in
[18:36] my opinion because they are a zero- sum game and because you can't compete just like robot wars, you you have to find out what you're trying to accomplish, right? Because it all boils down to your individual circumstance and what you're trying to accomplish. And the AI is a management tool. It's meant to extend your will into time periods where you're not available and it's meant to execute your will when you're not emotionally
[19:07] in a place where you want to be, you know, the decision maker. Those are the two primary benefits. and and so to to to for people to think that there isn't a dancing partner that's very needed in that equation to get successful trading accomplished with AI tools. Um that's where kind of the the road of hard knocks comes in and people find out very quickly that that that doesn't work. um you can chase that's essentially trying
[19:38] to go in and beat the casino with some system that you heard about online. The casino's odds you cannot beat unless you cheat. Um and when you cheat, you get caught and get prosecuted. And so the markets have um uh you you have to be first of all more solvent than they are irrational. And most people don't even approach the markets from a risk perspective. They approach it all the
[20:08] time from a greed perspective. And um part of the tools that are now available to everyone keep you from making those mistakes. like there's self-governance um as much as anything in terms of making decisions when you're feeling emotional rather than coming up with a a plan like I want to accomplish this by the in the next year and a half two years and then setting a goal coming up with a plan back testing that plan and then deploying it and letting it work on
[20:38] your behalf all the time and I think the key missing piece here is is that with that all the time or 24/7 seven monitoring. There are volatility opportunities in the market that are too good to pass up as it pertains to getting people towards their goals. Like you've seen a Bitcoin move of 40 plus% in a month or two month period of time. That is a massive deviation off the volume weighted average price. And those
[21:08] opportunities are typically where everyone chases the green candle versus taking a little profits off the table, making sure that, you know, assessing how much dry powder they have for subsequent trades if the price drops and how what that leveraged purchasing power would look like if it did drop. What the risk profile change looked like, you know, when when Bitcoin was at 65,000 versus two 3 weeks later it's at 85,000. What what has that changed from a risk
[21:38] perspective? And what's the more likely event that it draws down to 75 or that it goes continues to 95? What's what's the probability factor that is between those two time? And I don't think most people approach the markets that way. And I think tools like this and what we're building at Arch Public are geared to do that or they should be geared to do that. >> Well, it's an acting out of your will. And I before I go further, I want to thank Tilman for talking about my um you know what I used to be called in college
[22:08] sexy on face value. Um but there there there is uh you there has to be human input, right? So the idea is you know take an agent, go make money for me, don't make any mistakes. They're going to do things based on percentages, right? So the percentage that this will happen or that will happen. And on a long enough timeline, any percentage frankly is probably right or probably wrong. So, what happens if you just let it run loose and it ends up in a short position, but based on their data, I'm going to be right at some point.
[22:39] Meanwhile, you're losing enormous amounts of money that you can't personally stomach emotionally, right? So what we do at Arch Public is well there's a lot we want to know what you want to get accomplished and then we'll set our tools up with you to make that happen so there are are no surprises so that an agent isn't taking a short position and you don't know what's going to happen but it's certain that in the future it's going to be right like that's disaster written all over it. Right.
[23:09] >> Yeah. There were a few thesises that we started out with at the very beginning of this and and uh one of them was people want automated tools that they can control that are userdriven that literally allow them to go I want this to take place. They program it and they watch it take place and they go yay I did it. That is the premise of what we're trying to give people and we're trying to give it to them as quickly as it becomes available through OOTH 2 and
[23:40] API integrations. It's a completely userdriven experience. And you know what I would call it as close to as an operating system that allows somebody to then manage what used to be just code, right? In the old days of computer when we were, you know, you you were relegated to a lot of coding if you wanted to have a home computer. And then these things called operating systems made pictures out of the code. And then it became more drag and drop and more
[24:10] intuitive for the user. Well, automation and AI and all of these things. No, no different than what I mentioned earlier with Grockbot. They've cartoonized they've they've characterized um something that it used to be just this long string of code that nobody knew how to interact with. Now, you know, you can just hook up a microphone to your computer and talk to it and it it spits out really intelligent things that you can then take in the entire, you know, field of evidence in the library of
[24:40] things that you're putting in your file to make decisions off of, but ultimately they're your decisions. They're your actions. Um, and they're in your brokerage accounts. And that's another major point is like I think when you're talking about uh vertical integration on a lot of these exchanges, they're saying, "Hey, hook up these agentic tools that have no knowledge of the tools that are inside of the vertical integrated, you know, website." And then they're expected to adapt across a wide
[25:10] array of feature sets and different commission schedules and all these things that are, you know, it's just impossible. And so one of the things we really focused on is being integrated with as many platforms as possible so that you have the option to spread your capital out, control the capital in the way you want to move it in and out. And that's a risk, you know, adverse way to manage those trading activities. Um, and it also forces, you know, competitive nature. If you're a high net worth person, you get to kind of see the best
[25:41] and the worst of all the exchanges. One of the aspects that I I keep coming back to is, you know, we've been building the Sylvia thing and and people will tell me all the time like my wife it gets jealous I spent too much time with her, right? It's almost uh in this very weird dynamic. Um there's the interpersonal component, but then also when people go and they'll take like information, they'll go talk to their CPA and they're like, "Oh, Sylvia told me." And they talk about it like it's a person. And so, um I don't know. It it is uh it is this very weird dynamic. And
[26:11] you know, Alexa, I think that people do the same thing with an Alexa in their home. Um, I think that there is now these like uh kind of iRoot, you know, cleaning devices or or you know, whatever the those things are called. I think people are starting to, you know, figure out um hey, the MADC or you know, whatever is uh has got a name and >> got a gender like she she does this, you know, she does that. >> Yeah. >> You you know what's interesting is uh I don't have any hard data on it, but anecdotally, I like asking people what's the name of your agent. >> Yeah. And what I find is that a lot of
[26:42] men will name it a woman's name and a lot of women will name it a man's name. >> Yeah. >> I don't know why. I don't understand, you know, is there like science or is that just like a couple of my dumb friends that, you know, anecdotally have told me that? But it does feel like that there's something there about like you are picking a name. You are giving it some sort of identity and you are communicating with it in a way that now it becomes part of your life. that should be great for products, right? Like that should mean that you're not going to turn out. You don't want to
[27:12] like fire your friend, you know, type activity, but I think it's just underexplored and and frankly, we don't really understand, you know, some of the ramifications of this stuff yet. >> I think it's more akin to raising a kid from a I mean, you're literally training it how how to meet you where you want to be met on every front. That's why I was alluding to earlier like it being needing a dancing partner. it it doesn't know how you want to dance until you start taking the lead and you start dancing with it and then you guys can
[27:43] become professional dancers together. There is no cap of talent on that side of the equation. It can meet you as far as you can take it. But there is still I think a cap like there is no doubt I've seen some people um you know even within our company some people are exceptionally proficient at training the the AI agents and and you get you know very large leaps forward in productivity
[28:13] with very little um time training. And then there's some that it takes a little bit more effort because it's harder for them to articulate what they want out of it. And I think that's really the the ultimate limiting factor. And it is weird. I do switch sexes when I refer to it. Sometimes I'll call it a she and sometimes I call it a he. Um and but yeah. Yeah. It's [clears throat] a it's going to the lines are going to continue to be even more blurred when you've trained it for 10 years and it really is
[28:45] uh an extension of your will almost you know identically on on a lot of different fronts. I mean just think about as a travel agent it knows your preferences down to a tea like no nobody can replace you know that uh as a human and it's going to set some unrealistic standards. I [laughter] will tell you >> there it's interesting that one of Facebook's um their fastest growing product right now is their AI agent news uh and USC people are downloading that
[29:17] like crazy like it's happening very very fast and it's the again part of the reason why is there's a friendly interface you know there's a little puffy little guy that's the the muse sort of symbol and avatar are and you know regular folks are starting to get very very comfortable with with doing this. Um so not only having it on your devices but I think yesterday Zuckerberg announced a you know just like a little
[29:48] you know a little circular deal that you either wear or keep you with you that's your Muse you know AI buddy that you take around everywhere. So, if you're disconnected from your phone or your computer at home or wherever you are, you've got this this little news uh you know, puffy squishy dude that uh is is is handling stuff for you. Um again, it's it's interesting to talk about from a concept, but when that concept turns into big time uses, big- time downloads
[30:21] at the Facebook level, right? This is very different than I'm a developer at XYZ company and I've got a couple machines that are running Claude and other stuff. We're now at the Facebook level where Facebook's millions of users are your run-of-the-mill Tom, Dick, and Harry type people, middle America or middle wherever they live. um you know posting about you know I don't like you know Sandy that lives down the street
[30:51] because the garage sale that she did you know was there were too many people there that's the people on Facebook that are now getting comfortable with Muse as an agent inside of their life so um happening again very very fast very fast 99% of Warren Buffett's wealth was accumulated after his 50th birthday [music] the asset that made that possible was not in his portfolio though, it was his health. The first rule of investing is you actually got to be around to compound. Investor health
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[32:24] clinicians. Compounded medications are not FDA approved. [music] Individual results may vary and treatment requires evaluation by a licensed provider. Terms and conditions apply. See investorhealth.com. [music] Le let's talk a little bit about um you guys are uh building an entire system that should be automatically executing these strategies for people and I think that you know if you go and search on X I think there's a lot of folks who are very happy with the system that you guys have built. Um if you look at the macro
[32:54] environment every single thing is pretty much telling people that Bitcoin should be lower. Oil is at 100 bucks 10 years at you know five plus percent they just hiked interest rates. I mean you just go on and on and on and on. Pretty much the only things that are working in Bitcoin's favor is like the total adjustable market is expanding because of the rise of AI and AI agents and the government is idiotically just printing as much money as they possibly can regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats are in charge. >> Sure. >> How do you square those two things? Like all of the, you know, more shorter term,
[33:24] you know, kind of uh uh more sensitive type things like interest rates or uh oil price, you know, five uh 10-year uh yields, they're all negative. They're supposed to be a headwind, but it doesn't seem like Bitcoin really cares. kind of like the the honeybadger of financial markets right now. >> Well, Andrew can speak to the ETF thing a lot more intelligently than I can, but I will tell you from my vantage point, um, we used to the the strongest power law that I had ever seen uh, correlated to the price of Bitcoin's movement was
[33:55] the number of wallets that had been created. the number of wallets on every metric whether it was wallets holding point one bitcoin wallets holding one bitcoin wallets holding 10 bitcoin if you saw an increase and we have over the last 17 years of its history we've seen a continued increase in adoption I think that the ETF purchases are the new adoption curve that uh should be really paid attention to and I think the buyers
[34:26] from demographic perspective have completely changed and I think that the buyers now of the ETFs are are looking at adding a little bit exposure as a wrapper to their overall strategy versus betting the farm and living by a river in a van. And I think that that's really the evolution of markets. It's a mature market now. It's driven by Wall Street. Um whether you like it or not, I bet options exist. And when price moves rapidly and there's volatility that
[34:57] exists, people want to bet on that volatility. And that keeps price um somewhat rangebound and somewhat played um differently than it's ever been. And I think there's a new sheriff in town. Like you see the evolution of Bitcoin. The very beginning it was miners that controlled the price 100%. And then you saw like exchanges be able to control the price and adoption of listing certain assets and not listing other
[35:27] assets. And then now I think ETFs are really and Wall Street and those mechanisms that allow big big money that have lots of dry powder in the background to use leverage to make money on the volatility of the price movement. >> Yeah. pump to your point about you know this this and this are going on which means generally speaking you know how is Bitcoin holding up um you know kind of the headline is markets are endlessly dynamic they are endlessly dynamic there there is there never is an if then then
[35:59] that is 100% proof it it just doesn't exist in markets um it's also the reason why the whole idea of hey Claude go make me money and don't make any mistakes is just simply not possible because again markets are exceptionally dynamic. Um so when it comes to what's going on with Bitcoin again you're seeing allocations being made that are different than allocations that were made you know two years ago. Two years ago there was now institutional opportunity to get access
[36:31] to Bitcoin via ETFs and you see saw a huge influx into Black Rockck's IBIT product. Um the the the reality is demand filtered down to retail or else Morgan Stanley doesn't start a spot Bitcoin ETF. Morgan Stanley is not an ETF company at all. They're a wealth management business that manages Mr. Smith's $7 million portfolio in Columbus, Ohio. That's what they do. They're not an ETF company. But the
[37:02] demand was so significant that they said, "We have to do this or else they'll just keep putting money into other people's funds and they'll make the money. Let's make the money." And you're seeing an acceleration uh of that particular product in real time um right now with Bitcoin where people are making it's September, right? Either end of Q3 or going into Q4. kind of making our endofear allocations and adjustments after the summer and and nine months of the year has happened. Well, where are
[37:33] we at? What should we do? What adjustments should be made? The top the highest number of Bitcoin inflows into that Morgan Stanley product in the first 6 months of its existence was only 30 million bucks in in on a one-day basis. Well, on Monday, it doubled to 60 million and then on Tuesday it tripled to 90 million. Now again those aren't massive numbers in the aggregate but those are meaningful you know steps up in capital that's being allocated to
[38:04] Bitcoin as an asset and as an asset class. So we should pay attention to that. No different than when information about inflation comes out. There's a topline number that everybody in the media wants to scream about and everybody has an opinion about rates. You got to go into the numbers. You got to got to, you know, open the folder and say, "Okay, there's the headline number, but what about this, this, and this, and this, this is interesting, and we should probably be paying attention to this, cuz this isn't as hot. This seems to be cooling a little bit." No different with
[38:35] Bitcoin ETF uh inflows. Um, whenever you have muted Black Rockck, but increased Bitwise, Morgan, Stanley, and Fidelity, that is that is pure retail demand. uh Black Rockck's uh Bitcoin ETF product will always be inflated because it's also attached to the options associated with IBIT. So big institutions, hedge funds, money managers that are are managing money that is supposed to be,
[39:05] you know, somewhat not correlated to to just regular market returns. They're playing the volatility of Bitcoin with both the spot price and the option the the options that exist there. So that that's going to do some funny things, but Fidelity Bitwise and uh my Morgan Stanley is pure retail demand. >> Well, correct me if I'm wrong. I think the more impressive number to even that Morgan Stanley is that they've not had one day of outflows. >> Yeah, there's been zero days of outflows
[39:37] in six months. >> Don't tell the bears. Don't tell the bears since the inception of that product. Right. So again, that's a, you know, whether it's a a put uh underneath the price of Bitcoin. Um, you know, we we'll see. Uh, we we've seen a a little bit of a pull back from 87 and change uh down to where we're sitting right now, maybe 83 or so. Um, but it's it's uh yeah. Um, I I also think from a Bitcoin standpoint, we're not going to have a 200 plus% year anytime in the next three
[40:08] years. We may have a 40% or a 50% year. Uh but going back to the structures now associated with Wall Street, Bitcoin as a preferred asset on Wall Street, something that's accepted, you now again have IBIT and you have IBIT options. So there's a level of control. Those options are going to put a little bit of a cap on the pace and speed at which Bitcoin can move. Again, we've got a we've got a 40% move off the bottom. Um but that's just off the bottom. you
[40:39] know, do we go from here to 175 at, you know, about a 1% chance that happens? Um, because again, there are there are machines at work, you know, uh, in quotes that now there's a different structure and a different architecture associated with the moves uh, associated with Bitcoin. Um, but again, you know, to your point, we probably should be lower based on all the headlines and what we think usually has to do with Bitcoin price. Markets are dynamic.
[41:10] Bitcoin markets are dynamic. Um, so never get bored. Um, same same thing with with traditional markets though. I mean, traditional markets are barely off the highs and you know, you would think based on headlines, you know, streets are on fire, right? you know, five plus%, you know, 10-year Treasury, everybody, you know, we're selling everything or moving into cardboard boxes on the street. No, not what happened. That's not what h happened at all, right? Um so, you know, strip away the politics, strip away the commentary.
[41:42] um markets go higher and generally it's because all those people at Morgan Stanley that we're talking about the Bitcoin ETF about anytime they see a one two three or 4% dip their advisor calls them and says dips are for buying put more money in you know that stuff that's in your money market account let's put more of it into the assets that matter to you that happens over and over and over and over and over >> well every paycheck 401k contributions are buying I mean it's it's a it's part of it's vertically integrated into our
[42:13] financial system and into our uh economy and I think that's only getting more and more and I think that's the reason why the adoption curve is going to be >> that dynamic even works for like SpaceX. So a decade ago if SpaceX would have gone public and then they had the unlock for all the people that got allocation SpaceX would be $60 right now. But there's a different dynamic in the way that people think about markets and what they want to be allocated to. Anytime there's a dip, they put more money in.
[42:43] That's what's happening with SpaceX. Why hasn't SpaceX gone to $80 or $70 or $60 in the same way that Facebook did or Tesla did or whatever, you know, insert, you know, a a fast growing company from 10 to 15 years ago. It's because market dynamics have changed. Everybody that owns SpaceX at Morgan Stanley, Maril Lynch, UBS, and Wells Fargo, anytime there's a 10 or 15% move over a period of days, put more money in. Put more money in. It's Elon. He he always wins.
[43:13] Put more money in. Put more money in. And so again, that has happened across people's preferred assets um again and again and again, and it will continue to happen and what keeps markets lifted. I mean, >> well, speaking of Elon winning, I mean, he's doing things that people are not taking notice of and that are worldchanging. I mean, this Grockpot, I I didn't even hear about it until I did hear about it and then it was like the best thing on the street. Well, he's
[43:44] also done X Money. Have you guys seen this X Money that he's launched? He's offering 6% interest rates, debit card made out of titanium. like he's taking and I just think it's going to be really really interesting when he ties a blockchain into X and you basically have a peer-to-peer payment system that's world that's global and it would be the first of its kind. It would be the and you know how can you ignore the fact that now he's um you know a depository
[44:15] if that has to be right on the horizon. Why would you ignore the potential there? it's too too disruptive and too large. And I don't know, you know, he's probably doing it quietly because of what the impact will be and who's on the other side of that impact, but uh it it just seems like a foregone conclusion to me based upon what what he what the moves on the board look like. >> I um I think that we're getting to watch some of the best in the world play the game and it's awesome. It's like
[44:46] watching, you know, uh, if Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant could play each other in their primes, the debate would be settled. That's what we're watching right now. How do you not get just thrilled Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, right? All these guys like, let them go, man. Let them compete. And there's a pri I mean, the prize is trillions of dollars. Yeah. >> And they're playing chess. >> They're talking a little bit, you know? They're launching pro like this is this is the game. It's pretty cool to watch. >> It really is. Yeah. It's revolutionary.
[45:17] >> Well, and we and we benefit, you know, downstream, you know, at the end of the funnel, we we uniquely benefit. And, you know, over the next 5 years, the biggest winners uh in, you know, growing businesses are going to learn how to use these tools and be able to um make these tools easy to use for their end users, right? Like, you know, we've we've got a big event in Tampa on October 15th. We've got, you know, 400 of our concierge clients are going to be there. It's a concierge only event, but we're going to be announcing our Arch AI
[45:48] product, which is just local to our setups, our strategies, our tools. So, if you want to ask it questions, it's going to spit you out answers. And here's a here's an easy example of that. So, I've got a of our bigger customers in uh my email saying, "Hey, you sent me these setups that we talked about. What are the intervals on these setups?" Right? I didn't want to answer that question and Ryan had a bunch to do from a service standpoint. So, so it it it took this guy about 12 hours to get back to us on what are the intervals of this
[46:19] stuff. Well, when we launch Archi, he's going to ask it and it's going to send it back to him in about 15 seconds. Here are the here, you know, he'll just take screenshots. Boom, boom, boom. And here are the intervals. Here are the intervals to these setups, right? Simple, easy to use. couple clicks and you're getting information and you're making decisions based on what is the entire ecosystem of of the tools and strategies at at Arch Public. >> I love it. Where can we send people to uh to learn more about what you guys are building?
[46:50] >> archpublic.com. >> Yeah, archpub.com. Simple. >> Very creative uh very creative URL there, guys. >> We um you guys should win a marketing award. By the way, um we uh just a huge change to our website about two weeks ago. Um big updates across the board as Tilman described. You know, the ability to really drag and drop strategies and setups um from our website. You know, you you you you flip on your account via OOTH. You input and you're connected.
[47:22] You drag and drop three or four strategies and boom, you're taking trades in minutes. Well, I think that's kind of what uh [clears throat] you know has been the holy grail of what I've wanted to bring to market. You know, at the very beginning of the company, we were having to ship laptops to customers that had been programmed and you know, the user experience has been nothing short of of friction, full of friction, very difficult. And I think this is the
[47:52] first time that I can say with absolute confidence that like if you've never seen trading automation before that's userdriven that you control that you manage your funds and your own brokerage accounts. If you come to archpub.com you can be set up in 5 minutes and running if you have a Gemini a Tasty Trade or a Coinbase account. So, uh, you know, come see what it's about. And I I can assure you it's something that you've never seen before. And it's going to open up your eyes to what the possibilities are
[48:23] as it pertains to monitoring markets, taking advantage of opportunities. And the most simple way I could uh, you know, kind of tell people, and this is kind of a very rudimentary example, but, you know, if you're a dollar cost averager, for example, and you just believe in the solid, let me just DCA in. Well, Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. is when you're available. Or maybe you set up some, you know, limit orders at specific prices, but are you available when the market presents really good, juicy
[48:56] buying and selling opportunities? Well, that takes monitoring. And so what's better than Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. to DCA that week is monitoring for the lowest volatility point that you can monitor and react to in that given week and then having something respond for you. And so it can just help you accomplish what you're trying to do, but do it in a way that's not limited to what your availability is and what your emotional capacity is. >> Makes uh makes complete sense to me. I appreciate both of you guys. I always
[49:26] enjoy talking to you. I learn something new. did a little uh token research while we were on here. All three of us walk away a little bit smarter. >> Love it. >> You said that you guys uh redid your website. I thought you were going to put your two uh beautiful faces on the uh cover and conversions would go up. >> See you guys next See you guys next time. >> See you, man. He got it.