¿Están los mercados a punto de despegar de nuevo? con Andreas Steno y Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays

[0:00] AND SOMETIMES MAY BE GOOD, SOMETIMES MAY BE >> It's macro [music] mons [music] crypto on the way. Get context strategy right now on your [music] screen. Macro Mondays level up your week. Oh yeah. >> Hello out there. Welcome to Real Vision. Welcome to another edition of Macro Mondays. My name is Migal and I am slightly delayed here with you for
[0:31] another Monday show with you Andrestein. Welcome to the show Andreas. You doing great? >> Very much. >> Yeah. Yeah. You know, I've had my issues with the Wi-Fi for the past 30 minutes, but um hopefully we'll be able to send to you live for the next 30 minutes without any hiccups. Fingers crossed. And Andreas, we have plenty of material and topic for topics for those 30 minutes. We're going to be covering as much as we can here. But let's kick off Andreas with a direct question. I like to do that. A harpoon as we would usually call it. >> Uh how much of your AI back have you
[1:03] offloaded to buy into this crypto rally? >> Uh nothing yet. But I Okay, let me start by saying one thing. Uh when you address this question, Miguel, I've seen >> I'm going go ahead. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I've I've seen a load of takes online that you're if you're in to the AI trade, then you need to pivot to crypto. That's it. >> And I've said I think continuously that those two traits will work in tandem over time. So I think it's a wrong
[1:33] question whether it's either or. It's AI and crypto in tandem over time. >> But you don't see those AI stocks doing 15% today. Andreas, it's too slow. >> Sure. Sure. Sure enough, fair enough. We'll dive much more into this. Talk a little bit about the uh the situation in the Middle East, the upcoming uh US China summit a little bit. Maybe maybe a little bit Greenland, I don't know. uh lots of content to to discuss at Andress, but we're going to start at one of my high points of this weekend. We we we we had a lot of action, but but this was probably the definitely the best
[2:04] tweet I've seen uh maybe all year. Um obviously, you had Logan and Jake Paul visiting uh the Pentagon as well. They visit the Scott Besson in the Treasury Department as well. And uh of course, the analysis is that the Hawk Tour girl should have be Secretary of the Interior by now. Andre, do do you think this is Jake and Logan Paul? Is this the the the 2028 ticket for the Republican party, do you think? >> Yeah, I honestly wouldn't rule it out. I mean, so this is maybe the only thing
[2:36] that makes me slightly upbeat on behalf of the Republicans ahead of the midterms because they have a tremendously good grip on this whole influencer crowd in in the US. uh something that we are yet to see to the same extent in Europe that you know parties work directly with these influences to the extent that we see in the US. So uh I mean as per usual as Europeans we we're kind of watching this and then we expect it to arrive in in in a cycle or two here. >> Absolutely. Andreas very exciting stuff here to to watch this but I have to
[3:06] admit it's it's it's very very strange for us here in Europe. Okay Andreas uh what's happening in crypto right now? What's driving it do you think? So I I I I obviously think it's related to this, you know, short dollar proxy trade that we've had on since July. Uh it's not as as if the dollar is super weak uh in um in the foreign exchange market, but we've seen various proxies of of that short dollar trade work alongside Scott Besson ramping up his uh his purchases of of longer dated bonds.
[3:37] uh alongside um this whole debasement narrative uh returning due to a lot of focus on the debt level. Uh so sometimes it's actually pretty tricky to find the actual driver or the actual reason why a narrative returns. Uh but I think um as I've said for a couple of weeks that it dates back to to Scott Bessant admitting to the long end of the yield curve being slightly out of control and uh his his return to a higher pace in in the
[4:07] buybacks and and all of that. um at least for me that's been that that's been the first catalyst and you could of course argue that that catalyst has have been added over the past weeks but it all dates back to that rally um started by Scott Besson's buyback operations that suddenly revived the whole narrative and the whole momentum of the space. >> Yeah, I get that. That is probably the the correct analysis. I still have a feeling that this is a much more healthy or wholesome rally that we're looking
[4:37] into in crypto because it seems to me that this is at least correlating with with with the huge focus and huge uh huge debate around the US deficit uh the the the the bond yields um and secondarily we begin to see stories of especially SUI being used for inter AI or agentto agent transactions. So in my opinion you have some of the you know the original story this is not driven by politicians on the contrary you have politicians they they couldn't get the clarity act passed and still uh cryptos rallying so this is not some government
[5:08] bailout driven rally uh and actually we're starting to see blockchains being used for something. Yeah. And and I mean if you look at the agent economy since say mid mid May or early June uh we're talking about a a very very very rapid acceleration of of the number of agents live right so um in that sense I do hold sympathy for this more fundamental structural story that uh yeah blockchains and and and crypto will prove to be
[5:38] the means of transaction in an agent economy and that's why I've said uh also earlier on this show that AI and crypto will work in tandem. It's it's it's not either or. And I I yeah, I still struggle with that either or narrative that we see everywhere because without AI, we wouldn't really have gotten to the point where we discussed crypto and an agent economy, right? Uh and vice versa, without without crypto being well equipped for
[6:08] microtransactions. We probably even wouldn't even discuss whether an agent economy with small transactions and all of that would be feasible at all because in in in the old fiat system that that wouldn't really be feasible, right? It it the the old system is not well equipped for a microtransaction regime. Uh so I think it is something that will work in tandem and let me just stress that five or six times on this show. I think it's wrong to to look at it from an either or perspective and it annoys me that a lot of people do.
[6:39] >> Yeah, absolutely. Andreas, before we dive in more into uh uh some of the topics that we have today and look into your uh analysis of this looking like March or April, which I'm very eager to get into, Andreas, just just a few notices here. Remember guys, this is our free show. Every week we publish on on Real Vision. It's uh live on uh you can follow it on X and YouTube and something new also on Tic Tac, I believe it's called address on Tik Tok. Uh so so uh we're expanding like that. We have a great week for you at Real Vision. If you're on the Pro Tour, you can look
[7:10] forward to uh your monthly macro meets micro address. It's on Thursday at 3 p.m. uh p.m. Eastern. You're going into how the portfolio is doing, a lot of the uh the changes that were made this Friday actually. Uh so so lots of stuff to talk about and uh the entire setup, your entire micro setup or stock setup for for Q4. Uh on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, I'm um hosting a uh an exclusive uh ask me anything and that's actually for even for the alpha cheer on on on real vision. So it doesn't have to be on the prochure on geopolitics. So
[7:40] quite good timing I have to say uh right on top of the Trump she meeting that we'll be covering much more there and on our uh uh weekly articles. So lots of great stuff to look forward to this week on Real Vision. Go check out your options on in in there. Uh, Bre, you wrote this morning that uh this is beginning to look a bit like March or April. And we're seeing today oil is dropping towards towards $100 from from from up up upwards or from from from higher than that despite new threats that that that Trump is considering
[8:10] restarting strikes in Iran, etc. What what are you seeing in that space? Has some of the the fear that we've been struggling with for the past few weeks around oil, around that situation, has that evaporated a little bit? Well, slightly right, at least the rate of change is is is improving. Um, and when you when you look at it, Mickel, right, back in March, we had markets trading the dollar on the long side. I mean, the market is very very keen on trading the dollar high, at least when you look at speculance right now. Uh, we
[8:41] had a market that was incredibly long energy uh in in positioning terms. Uh, currently the market is net 44% long in oil of the open market interest in futures. So, it's it's a very crowded long um for good reasons obviously given what has happened over the past couple of months, but we're starting to get to a point where uh and I've said that over the course of the FOMC meeting last week, also the higher than expected core CPI print the week before that that even with news that should push the market in
[9:11] a certain direction, we're not really getting a large move in that direction. And that is to me a symptom of a market that has a very exhausted positioning already. Uh and I think we're getting more and more evidence of that. I mean the day after the Fed hike and a pretty hawkish message overall from from Walsh markets just started accelerating again right and that is again to be a symptom of a market that is very very crowded in one direction. If if you look at for example the AII survey uh so the American Association of Individual
[9:42] Investors so they basically survey a lot of their um very active retail uh investors and they are incredibly bearish um you know a rate hike certainly in the mix a war that you know never ends uh basically a reaceleration of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in many ways at least if you look at the damage done on infrastructure and all of that you have so many things to worry about and yet um you know the market hasn't really sold off despite so many people being bearish. Uh I think it
[10:13] is a pretty good sign that we're we're about to see better times and I saw someone label it the September phobia. We almost always have September phobia because it's you know if you look at the past 1015 years September has a bad seasonality track record. Um it was kind of the same last year. everyone was so bearish into September and we got a massive rally. Uh especially in some of the momentum names and um yeah I I think something like that is on the cards for for the fourth quarter year. Uh then we can talk about 2027 later because sure
[10:44] when we get rate hikes from all central banks it is something that will put a lid on on the business cycle down the road but you know there's time between now and then. Let me put it like that. >> There's money to be made in that interum there. Okay, Andreas, we are approaching a very very important summit, the Trump she summit. I wrote an article on it a few weeks back. I wasn't quite sure what the backdrop was going to be. We had a lot of reports that the Chinese were struggling to find out who would coordinate this meeting on the American side. That's always very, very hard to
[11:14] know. It seems to me like Scott Bessant has now come to this on his to-do list after uh uh sending Jake Paul out of the door. Uh he he had time to begin coordinating this meeting, which which is about time. They were probably on this for a few weeks, but you know what I mean. Uh, and we're getting quite positive news that there's a constructive tone. They're working on maybe an AI safety plan. Uh, other stuff. It seems like the market is reacting really well to this address. Uh, what are you expecting? What what what do you hear from market
[11:44] participants and the expectations for this meeting? >> So, I you know, in terms of what I hear, uh, a lot of people are obviously focused on this whole Korea licensing question. Um also the border question on on semiconductor uh semiconductors across uh borders and all of that. Uh [snorts] what we've heard from the US side uh is that they hold sympathy for uh added tariffs on semiconductors. um they hold sympathy for you know banning
[12:15] more of the equipment from China which in turn would probably also lead to some sort of consensus between the US and China that they cannot renew a license in in within China uh or for the Korean companies in my opinion. Uh so I I'm kind of watching those um those names within that space with with a certain degree of eagerness since we're so heavily invested in them. Right. So, um, having said that, I don't I don't really get the vibe
[12:45] right now that they're, you know, keen on on really accelerating the, uh, trade war between them right now. Um, I I had that vibe a lot more a couple of weeks ago. So, [snorts] I don't know whether you agree with that, but to me, it would be a major surprise to see some sort of big escalation towards the end of the week um, now that we've gotten these consiliatory signals over the weekend. No, absolutely. There are still a lot of fundamentals in the trade relationship that should, if you follow the 2025, the spring of 2025 logic, this war should be
[13:17] redot because they haven't been solved. They haven't been addressed. You still have all the same imbalances, >> but that just just doesn't seem to be the focal point anymore. Everything is about AI, potentially also about Iran. I doubt they'll get much they'll get much done on Iran, at least at least not publicly. They might be discussing a strategy for for for oil prices, etc. But I agree with you. It seems like there's some some they have found some common ground on uh um on the AI uh buildout and and how to balance that in a fair way. Uh so so looking forward to
[13:48] it. We'll hope hopefully no more >> and no no matter uh whether whether it's fair to say that uh the current spike in the oil and oil products price is solely driven by the Iran war. it's at least very much partially driven by it. Um, what I was about to say is that China, the Chinese and the US administration, they have a problem in common right now. >> They do that they're that they're facing high energy costs and and they to some
[14:19] extent they simply need to coordinate their efforts for this not to spiral out of control and both parties know that. uh and and and I actually think basically since the Iran war uh no matter whether you blame the US for starting it whatever right the two parties have actually not been as focused on escalating trade wars against each other because they have this problem in common and it's very typical even foes they can find common ground when they have something they need to solve together right and I actually think this is a big part of the backdrop
[14:50] here >> no I agree absolutely address we we'll be covering that even more during the week uh Andres, in your Monday article here and also in the Friday article, you began to to look at one of the uh the absolute banger charts that we usually do. Uh and we have to look at it again, Andreas, because things are are really really starting to look interesting in in in in semispace. >> Take us through what you see. We're already seeing some of the movements in in in in today's market in some of the ETFs. And what are you seeing out of South Korea and and in the semi-memory uh trades here?
[15:20] >> Yeah, so the semiconductor trade is up a couple of percent today, right? So I know we cannot compete with some of the meme coins you mentioned to begin [laughter] with but but the semiconductor trade looks interesting again in my opinion and um if if you look at it right it was the exact same backdrop that we had in March and and April for that matter that the South Korean trade data looked uh incredibly impressive uh we're we're talking about a new acceleration the numbers for the first 20 days of of the month throughout this morning uh
[15:50] pointing to an increase of almost 80% yearonear uh if you work day adjusted it's even more so and I mean it's an incredible increase and against even my incredibly bullish expectations we're accelerating in year overyear terms which is an incredibly hard barrier to beat because you know obviously you cannot continue growing 100% a year right if you look beneath the hood um semis are up 250% year-over-year something like that it's absolutely bizarre while the broader
[16:22] exports X70s um are up 20 22% something like that between friends which is still a lot. I mean the economic cycle is doing very well. Uh and South Korea is typically one of the first gauges that we we we get of you know the economic health of of of the cycle and despite hikes despite uh oil wars and what have you the economic cycle is not budging. And that I think that's very very important as as a takeaway this morning.
[16:52] And I think it is absolutely fair that NASDAQ is up a couple of percent here that semiconductors are up a couple of percent uh that the market is rebounding because the market is simply not positioned for this. Uh and that's exactly what I've said maybe two or three weeks in a row and we've uh thankfully guided our uh our members in the right direction. Um yeah, basically over those those weeks that you know the bearishness that we see across positioning across a lot of of of metrics, it's not really rounded in fundamentals right now. Uh it may be
[17:24] that 2027 will turn out to be a crap year. I I wouldn't rule that out given everything that's happening, but remember the leads and lags. And that's why it's so important that you continue to do a business cycle analysis where you focus on the moving parts that you can actually use to forecast where uh the cycle is heading and it is too early to um yeah to label the cycle dead. It's simply too early. Great stuff. And now obviously you guys can catch all the movements that we did in the macro portfolio in our Friday
[17:56] portfolio update article from from from last week with the with the real vision protier. So, a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got 5 years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. >> Okay, Andreas, I want to talk a little bit about Greenland. Uh, I don't have a big investment angle for this, but we we have to touch upon it a little bit.
[18:26] Obviously, we're both Danish for people who don't know that. So, we've been in the middle of this and people are eager for our opinions on this, Andreas. And I I know we've had uh slightly differing opinions. You were very very hot on selling Greenland uh to the US. Uh >> no, I still more lukewarm on that. In any case, we we we got a Greenland deal. And uh ju just to sum up a little bit what happened here, the way I see it uh is that the US had for for many many years a big desire to um mitigate this tail
[18:57] risk uh that essentially was Greenlandic independence because some very very foolish Greenlandic uh politicians they were talking about ah once we become independent we might try decide to ally with China or Russia or who knows and that's obviously delusional and uh the US wanted to control that uh tail risk. It's it's a very very very very small tail risk. Greenland is not becoming independent right now. And even if they were uh with the Chinese swoop in whatever, but I get it. I mean, as I label it, it's kind of like a hedge fund uh thinking that you have this tail
[19:28] risk. It's potentially one that could trigger a world war. You need to hedge it. You need it's very very expensive to hedge. So, you mitigate it instead. And that's essent essentially what the US landed. And therefore, I think this was a very very good deal. There was a lot of noise and uh problems in between uh a lot of drains in the US European relations that shouldn't have happened. >> But again, this deal is okay. It's good for Denmark. It's good for the US. It's probably good for Greenland. It it's it's uh I think this is a win-win. And you can have that. Uh I get a lot of
[19:58] Americans in my feed talking about who won this. And I mean, Denmark and US are supposed to be best friends. I mean, Andre, if when you and I go to go to to lunch, we don't need a negotiation strategy for who pays for the lunch because we're friends. We figure it out. I mean, you you shouldn't need some kind of out of the deal to figure out who pays for this. But here we are. It's it it's there. It's probably uh gone as a topic, which is a big relief. Uh, and um, yeah, >> how do you feel about your business?
[20:28] >> I'm not sure I I completely buy that analogy because no matter whether we use my credit card or yours, it will end up in the same account. So, [laughter] that's fair. That's fair. >> That's not entire that's not entirely our need to she doesn't need to hear that. She hears this program a lot. She doesn't need to know that. [laughter] >> But in in in any case, ML, um, I I think it's interesting that we see the deal right now. uh given that we've seen a lack of progress around the straight of Abuse and a lack of progress in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
[20:59] Uh so so to me it seemed like they they wanted to you know capture the victory somewhere in the geopolitical space ahead of the midterms. This was probably one of the easier ones that they could get. Um and you know as per usual after such a deal is is being signed the two parties signing the deal they don't agree on how to represent this deal if you know what I mean. that's always the case. Um I I guess to some extent um it was also what went wrong after the first memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran that they had a very you
[21:30] know very different storytelling around what was signed actually um and it it sometimes makes it difficult to to ensure that the deal is actually being complied with if both parties are running around with different stories right uh having said that I am I'm happy to see this deal um for obvious reasons uh and I sincerely think that this is a good step forward for for NATO. In my opinion, it is of the utmost relevance to have the US military present up there to the extent that they want. Uh it's
[22:00] almost always been the case that they've been allowed to. Uh but I think that cooperation has now been solidified u to very much to the gain of of both parties. >> Yeah, absolutely. And uh we'll get to talk about other stuff that's equally important. address. >> Yeah. >> What can people expect, Andreas? As I mentioned earlier, we have the the macro meets micro coming up this uh this Thursday in Real Vision for Proview, >> what can listeners expect from that, Andreas? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, we're taking a deep dive into the semiconductor space
[22:30] to find the the best traits uh to express the bullishness that I just laid out. Uh we're obviously also going to discuss uh the allocation strategy between semiconductors and this soft dollar sleeve where you have gold uh bitcoin and you name it. And uh to me it's been a bit of a surprise to see uh the crypto sleeve outperform precious metals to the extent that we've seen. Um it goes against the sort of machinelearned observations that we've
[23:00] uh seen from our now casting technology. Uh we hold both. Let me just stress that we we we're both invested in gold, some uh in the crypto sleeve and some in the AI sleeve. So, we're basically long all three, meaning that we directionally think all three will go up here. Um but some of the price action has surprised me and our technology uh in in all fairness. Uh so, we're obviously going to to um look through these three micro cases and really focus our attention there. Uh given that's where you see the price action and the price um uh price
[23:32] bullishness basically. you know it um it it looks incredibly interesting the fourth quarter now and then you know most people wouldn't have anticipated that a few weeks back. >> No absolutely great great great expectations and very very exciting to to hear more about that and remember also we we have a geopolitical ask me anything on on on Wednesday for alpha cheers and above. So so lots of great stuff to to to track here. Any final remarks or topics and address before we round off today? Uh, I mean, I took a lot of comfort in
[24:04] Trump's words over the weekend, uh, where he he at least wasn't fully uh, rejecting the possibility of meeting the Supreme Leader in Iran. Uh, we've heard that tune before, but as we've said, um, since we I, you know, I I was I was kind of made famous on X for saying that the war the conflict was over. I think I said that back in April. it proved to be the the exact right take and we did pivot from it but but probably not to the extent that we needed over the
[24:35] summer. Uh but my reading of the conflict in the Middle East is that it moves in sine waves and I think what we've heard this weekend is another solidification of that view that we're basically moving in circles uh and we're now past peak escalation which is everything you need to know which is what reminds me so much of March and April that we had this you know grand escalation and then both parties had an incentive to to deescalate and that's basically what we've seen. So kudos to you also, ML for calling that a few
[25:05] weeks back. >> Let's see how it goes from here, Andreas. It's uh it's very very interesting times and uh I think a lot could happen in the the Trump she meeting that we'll obviously be covering. Um that's all for this time folks. Remember to uh subscribe to the channel if you're watching this on YouTube. Leave a comment what you would like more and less of. And uh yeah, good luck out there. See you next Monday. >> So you obviously like this video enough that you've got to the end. That's quite a big task. But listen, do me a favor.
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