Should You Invest In SpaceX IPO, Elon Musk, Bitcoin or AI?

[0:00] And that has always been my belief is
[0:01] that these models will be commoditized,
[0:03] that you don't need to use the most
[0:05] expensive ones, and that the
[0:07] corporations haven't figured out yet how
[0:08] to use them. When you put all that
[0:10] together and then you add in Bernie
[0:12] Sanders and Donald Trump want to own
[0:13] part of the companies, I I posted on X,
[0:16] there are so many headwinds when the
[0:17] Pope speaks out against the models.
[0:19] Like, how many things do you want to
[0:20] have where people are like, "Slow this
[0:22] down." And then, what's going on, guys?
[0:24] Today, we got a great conversation with
[0:26] Jordy Visser. In this conversation, we
[0:27] talk about the SpaceX IPO, what he likes
[0:29] about it, where he thinks there could be
[0:30] risk, and what you should think about in
[0:32] your portfolio. On top of that, we talk
[0:34] about artificial intelligence, orbital
[0:35] data centers, what's going on with the
[0:36] model companies, token cost, and usage
[0:39] of these products. And then we get into
[0:40] physical AI and robotics, what Jeff
[0:42] Bezos is doing, how Jord is thinking
[0:44] about all these different tools. And
[0:45] last but not least, we talk about the
[0:46] New York Knicks, the future NBA
[0:49] champions, but we don't talk about it
[0:51] from a basketball perspective. We talk
[0:52] about it as how it relates to AI in
[0:54] crypto. and I think it'll give you a lot
[0:56] to think about as to where the future is
[0:58] going. Here's my latest conversation
[0:59] with Jordi Visser. All right, Jordy,
[1:01] let's talk about the SpaceX IPO.
[1:03] Yesterday, it goes public. Everyone's
[1:04] super excited about it. What's your
[1:06] general take on the company valuation,
[1:08] whether investors should look at this as
[1:10] a space company, an AI company? Just how
[1:12] do you evaluate Elon's great
[1:14] accomplishment here?
[1:16] >> Um, so I'll break it into two
[1:18] components, the now and the future. Um,
[1:21] so think of it as the same way I think
[1:23] of AI and Bitcoin, meaning AI and
[1:26] crypto. We're in the agentic side.
[1:28] Everything matters about that. So what
[1:29] do they have in the agentic side that
[1:31] matters? Well, they've obviously got the
[1:33] Colossus side. I think they're now the
[1:34] fourth largest hyperscaler. So I just
[1:37] want to like say to everyone listening
[1:39] >> no 30 days 45 days meaning they didn't
[1:44] have any deals and now they have
[1:45] anthropic and Google
[1:47] >> and his ability to do the first colossus
[1:51] was 122 days on something that is
[1:54] normally taking people years to get
[1:56] done. So Elon is the master of
[1:59] engineering and the ability to um
[2:02] vertically integrate all of this stuff
[2:03] but he also figures out solutions along
[2:05] the way. So, if anyone's going to be
[2:06] able to build data centers faster than
[2:08] all of the chaos we're seeing, I go back
[2:10] to something I said here, which Elon
[2:12] said publicly, which was when you get
[2:14] software guys trying to do hardware.
[2:16] It's a very different game. So, he's a
[2:17] hardware guy who's involved in the
[2:20] software game from the AI side with XAI.
[2:23] Remember, he I'm going to leave the the
[2:25] AI side alone for a second. Starlink is
[2:27] the other part that is today. So,
[2:30] Starlink is really important. I have a
[2:32] Starlink up in Maine. And the reason I
[2:33] have it in Maine is because I'm in a
[2:35] very quiet place where there is cable,
[2:37] but it goes out all of the time. And so
[2:40] by having Starlink as a backup choice,
[2:42] it allows me to do this with you during
[2:43] the summer in Maine if there's a storm.
[2:45] And I have a feeling with all the
[2:46] humidity that's already in the arc,
[2:47] there's going to be storms this year
[2:48] that weren't last year. Um, so Starlink
[2:50] gives me the capability of doing this
[2:51] any time. But the ability to expand that
[2:54] and the revenues, those are today's
[2:55] businesses with the Colossus thing being
[2:57] massive in terms of the dollars. The
[3:00] future for SpaceX is space stations. The
[3:03] future is all of these different parts
[3:06] of being able to deal with the rocket
[3:09] ships coming back and then going out the
[3:10] same day, which if he gets it done next
[3:13] year, great. This kind of is like the
[3:15] Tesla part. So, if you think about his
[3:17] business, he now has all of a sudden out
[3:19] of nowhere this component part which is
[3:22] revenues coming in the door in a
[3:24] business where it makes him the fourth
[3:26] largest hyperscaler. I mean, it's really
[3:27] hard to describe that he's joined in
[3:29] with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google
[3:31] already and he's getting business from
[3:33] one of them and he's getting business
[3:35] from Anthropic on that with Starlink
[3:37] >> and he did the deal with Cursor
[3:39] >> and that's the the next thing I was
[3:40] going to say is you get the AI part two.
[3:42] So, he's behind with XAI for sure, but
[3:45] what Curser allows him to do is
[3:47] accelerate the coding side. And so, that
[3:50] has already helped. And remember, he
[3:53] gets to plug into the same thing that
[3:54] Anthropic and Google are plugging into,
[3:57] which again was the first real thing of
[4:00] Blackwells. Now, from what I've heard,
[4:02] and I heard this on a podcast recently,
[4:04] he has secured 20% of all of the Vera
[4:06] Rubin that'll be going out. Now,
[4:08] >> interesting.
[4:08] >> The reason that's important is because
[4:10] if Jensen was going to give these to
[4:13] anyone, these racks, he'd go with the
[4:15] person that's already proven that he can
[4:17] build the data center in this type of
[4:18] environment. And that's the part that I
[4:20] don't think people have have have fully
[4:22] figured out is I think the premium that
[4:24] should come for SpaceX is the ability of
[4:27] him to navigate the bottlenecks that
[4:29] we're seeing and be able to build these
[4:30] data centers both terrestrial where he's
[4:32] getting the side. But he also put out
[4:34] the information on what the space
[4:36] stations will be. So when you break it
[4:38] down, uh a data center right now for 1
[4:40] gawatt is like 60 billion of of of that
[4:42] about 35 billion is the chips. So you're
[4:45] left with 25 billion. and he's saying he
[4:47] can do the um space station
[4:51] for 5 billion.
[4:54] 5 billion versus 25 billion. The chips
[4:56] are still going to be the same. That's a
[4:57] dramatic difference, which means the
[4:59] margins on his compute would be up
[5:00] there. So, if he's able to do that, and
[5:03] I think Google's invested in that, too.
[5:05] Meaning the reason they did the deal is
[5:07] if he's able to do this, they want to
[5:09] have already secured the rights to that.
[5:11] So, who knows what's in the documents.
[5:12] So, I think SpaceX is really two
[5:14] companies. you're getting a put in it,
[5:17] which is the revenue that's coming in
[5:18] right now. It's still valued extremely
[5:20] rich, but then you're getting this
[5:21] massive call option on these other
[5:23] parts.
[5:23] >> So, the way I break down I think the
[5:25] investor conversations I'm seeing or
[5:27] debates, there's people who use
[5:28] spreadsheets and they're looking at you
[5:30] know SpaceX is 25 times more uh you know
[5:33] overvalued than they'll name some
[5:35] company. They'll look at uh first AI IPO
[5:37] performance versus the first 6 months or
[5:39] 12 months. uh every historical norm,
[5:42] every historical trend, every single
[5:44] data point in their spreadsheet is
[5:45] telling them SpaceX is overvalued. The
[5:47] other side of the debate are people who
[5:49] essentially believe in Elon and they're
[5:51] saying, "This guy has a track record of
[5:52] being successful. He's the best
[5:53] entrepreneur of our lifetime. I'm
[5:55] willing to bet that just like with
[5:56] Tesla, which is up 25,000%, has
[5:59] compounded annually at 40% a year since
[6:01] he went public. He's going to figure it
[6:02] out and he's going to be able to drive
[6:03] returns for investors." So, if that's
[6:05] the debate, which I I generally think it
[6:06] is, if you then go look at like orbital
[6:08] data centers, I hear it in a very micro
[6:10] way where people say, "Oh, I'm going to
[6:12] take these same exact chips. I'm going
[6:13] to put them into space." A bunch of
[6:14] people say, "Orbital data centers plus
[6:16] Elon Musk, I'm in." And then I hear
[6:18] people say, "What happens if the chips
[6:21] get uh need to be uh refurbished or
[6:24] there's an issue? Uh, we don't have
[6:26] humans there, so I don't I'm not going
[6:28] to invest because, you know, we haven't
[6:30] solved that problem yet." And again, it
[6:32] goes back to I think that there's this
[6:33] like rational spreadsheet driven kind of
[6:37] approach and then there is just like I'm
[6:38] betting on the person.
[6:40] >> How do you balance those two things?
[6:42] >> Well, there's a lot in there. Uh so I
[6:45] think the problem and and I've started
[6:47] to talk more and more about this.
[6:49] Building data centers on land might be
[6:52] at this point more complicated than
[6:54] doing them in space. And it's very hard
[6:56] for people to go through this. So
[6:57] >> because
[6:58] >> because of the amount of complexity
[7:00] there is with all of the components that
[7:03] the cooling which is not needed in
[7:04] space. Like when you go through all of
[7:06] the components that go from 25 billion
[7:08] to 5 billion, you're reducing a lot of
[7:10] the friction. But the other thing you're
[7:11] reducing where do we get the land from?
[7:13] Where do we get the power from? This is
[7:15] why he wants to do it in space. Let's
[7:17] just take two parts. The cooling and the
[7:20] energy. Okay? The sun's producing the
[7:22] energy and the cooling we don't need. If
[7:25] you go through that and then you add in
[7:26] the government regulations, the push
[7:28] backs that are coming from we can't do
[7:29] this in the land, I find it very hard to
[7:32] believe that that path is going to be
[7:33] anywhere near as smooth as all of these
[7:35] charts that the sell side puts out on a
[7:37] regular basis. Now, I'm a person that
[7:39] believes in the token usage and believes
[7:41] that we will get to the gigawatts
[7:42] necessary. If you ask me, the two ways
[7:44] we're going to get there, one is going
[7:45] to be batteries. We have to have more
[7:47] storage because I don't believe the
[7:50] government's going to allow us and the
[7:52] the lack of plumbers, electricians, the
[7:54] bottlenecks that are happening at all
[7:56] different components. Memory is going to
[7:57] allow us to get done faster. I think the
[7:59] reality is if we can store energy off
[8:01] the grid, then we can get to the point
[8:04] where we already have enough on the grid
[8:05] on the land. It's going to take a while
[8:07] for the the batteries. All of this is a
[8:09] game of how quick can the innovation
[8:10] happen to get us there. So, when you're
[8:12] betting Elon, you are betting on the
[8:13] person. You're betting on this. But I
[8:16] just want to make one more thing clear
[8:17] for people. So all of last year when I
[8:20] was talking about Micron,
[8:22] it was a $60 to $110 stock between
[8:25] January and let's say April May even
[8:29] even in May.
[8:31] The reason people didn't want to own it
[8:33] is because they didn't think the
[8:35] earnings would happen. Okay. So then the
[8:38] stock goes to 700, 800, 900, a,000. How
[8:43] is something go up a,000%
[8:45] from where it was during the first
[8:47] quarter of last year and it's still
[8:50] cheap today? Well, for that to happen,
[8:53] everyone's forecast on the exponential
[8:55] needs were wrong. This is the issue is
[8:57] if SpaceX is able to send rocket ships
[8:59] up and back down and by the end of 28
[9:02] they're doing what he wants, which is
[9:05] thousands a year, which means at least
[9:07] three a day where the ship is going up
[9:09] and coming back. Then all of a sudden
[9:10] the amount of satellites that he has out
[9:12] there. Who else can do this? Who's the
[9:13] competition? That's part of what goes
[9:15] into a price. Can Google do that? They
[9:17] don't have the rocket ships to do that.
[9:18] Where are they going to secure the
[9:19] rocket ships? He has most of the
[9:20] satellites in space. So at some point
[9:22] you have to get into the challenges of
[9:24] doing things on land. Who the person is
[9:26] and has he proved that he can do things
[9:28] that are unthinkable and has he figured
[9:30] out a way to go through this? And we're
[9:31] all leaving out the fact that within the
[9:33] next 5 years he'll be using humanoids to
[9:35] do a lot of this stuff. So I just think
[9:37] it's a very hard thing for people to get
[9:38] in. But if the earnings come through
[9:40] even slightly above expectations and if
[9:42] he's sending rocket ships into space and
[9:44] they're coming back and then going back
[9:45] out in the same day, you're going to
[9:47] have a valuation change. Now, that's
[9:48] still on the distribution of outcome.
[9:50] So, I can see where people are bearish
[9:51] the name. I can see where they go
[9:52] through it. But Elon has proven that if
[9:54] you if you get uh if you go against him
[9:57] on the possibility, he has enough of a
[10:00] fan base and enough people that have
[10:01] believed him and made a lot of money off
[10:02] him that I think that bid's going to be
[10:04] underneath no matter what. The whole
[10:06] thing about um space and the ability to
[10:08] do this to me is uh reinforced. There's
[10:11] a book that I read. I know you don't
[10:12] read books but uh it's called the
[10:14] algorithm and it was written by the guy
[10:15] who became the I think the president of
[10:17] Tesla and he talks about the way he got
[10:19] hired was uh he got introduced by Cheryl
[10:21] Samberg. Elon basically is like I got a
[10:23] problem in our sales uh process. And so
[10:26] this guy goes to a bunch of Tesla
[10:28] dealerships, uses different emails and
[10:29] does some test drives. And he's trying
[10:31] to go through the sales process and
[10:32] figure out where are the bottlenecks.
[10:33] and he came from the manufacturing world
[10:35] and what he realized was the way you
[10:36] determine where the bottlenecks are is
[10:38] you look where the physical products
[10:40] start to pile up naturally go over there
[10:43] and figure out why is this piling up and
[10:45] unblock the the bottleneck.
[10:47] >> So he tells a story that at Tesla what
[10:49] happened is everyone was uh being
[10:50] compensated for test drives not for
[10:53] conversions. And so what happens you'd
[10:54] go and you do a test drive and no one
[10:56] would ever call you. So he calls up the
[10:58] guy who's head of sales and says, "Hey,
[11:00] no more test drives for a week. Call
[11:02] every single person back." All of a
[11:03] sudden sales explode, right? And they go
[11:05] and so he goes and he works there and
[11:07] Elon's way of hiring is, "Hey, you solve
[11:09] the problem." So like you must be able
[11:10] to solve other problems here. He talks
[11:12] about the algorithm which now is famous
[11:14] in Elon world. And the entire idea of
[11:16] the algorithm is you go and you find the
[11:17] bottleneck and then you undo the
[11:19] bottleneck and then you go to the next
[11:20] bottleneck and you undo it. But what he
[11:23] believes is that you should be
[11:24] subtracting as much as possible. when
[11:26] he's got this like idiot index of what
[11:28] are the cost of the inputs and what is
[11:29] the end product. What you just described
[11:32] is like the perfect implementation of
[11:34] the algorithm. One of the bottlenecks is
[11:37] energy. Well, what if we just get energy
[11:39] all the time from the sun?
[11:40] >> Mhm.
[11:40] >> One of the bottlenecks is all the
[11:41] cooling. What if we just remove that?
[11:43] Right? And he just keeps going through
[11:44] this. But I also think it's the other
[11:47] side of this which is he understands and
[11:49] is way more strategic than people I
[11:51] think give him credit for that he has a
[11:53] monopoly on rocket launches. Mhm.
[11:55] >> And so not only can he make his business
[11:57] successful, can he drive the cost down
[11:59] and and you know be competitive, but
[12:01] he's also going to do something that no
[12:02] one else can do. And so it provides this
[12:05] huge moat that only really exists in the
[12:09] hardware world going forward. Like the
[12:11] AI world, it's going to be very hard to
[12:12] build these modes, which you've talked
[12:13] about a bunch as well, right?
[12:15] >> Yeah. Here here's where I'll get um
[12:20] more negative on investing in SpaceX
[12:23] just on everything you described. So
[12:27] we love narratives of course it's what
[12:30] makes human beings happy sitting around
[12:32] the fire when we started eating meat and
[12:34] our brains started you know changing and
[12:36] we're telling stories and at the end of
[12:38] the day I'm a storyteller you're a
[12:39] storyteller like we tell stories but
[12:41] >> I invest
[12:42] >> got a fireplace here. Yeah, exactly. Um,
[12:45] the reason I chose Micron over other
[12:48] things last year and I remember talking
[12:51] to Phil Rosen about this when he put
[12:53] this in his his paper which was um so
[12:56] why Micron and I gave all the reasons
[12:58] for the next well to build the data
[13:00] centers and to move into the agentic
[13:02] world and the agentic world is necessary
[13:04] for humanoids down the road. This is a
[13:06] never- ending thing. We need memory. And
[13:08] I don't think people have really
[13:09] realized that eventually when we make
[13:10] that change into the vision of the
[13:12] agentic world, the amount of memory
[13:14] we're going to need is off the charts.
[13:16] So Micron is a component of that. Here's
[13:18] what I just said. Batteries on one side
[13:21] and
[13:22] orbital space stations for data centers.
[13:26] Do you know what both of them need a lot
[13:28] more of than the traditional one?
[13:30] Silver. I want more silver. So, I
[13:34] listened to a podcast this week from
[13:35] All-In at their liquidity event or
[13:37] whatever they're calling it, and they
[13:38] interviewed someone on the material
[13:40] side, and I highly recommend it's a
[13:41] 25minute interview. The reason it's 25
[13:44] minutes is I'm sure people won't care
[13:46] that much about it. I mean, if it was
[13:48] Bill Gurley or someone, he'd be up there
[13:50] for over an hour. Um what the guy said,
[13:53] okay, the amount of copper we need for
[13:55] the next 10 years is equivalent, and I
[13:57] think he said 10 years, but it's 10 or
[13:59] 15, it doesn't really matter for the
[14:00] point, is equivalent to all the copper
[14:02] mined over the last 10,000 years. So
[14:05] when people look at this problem, I'm
[14:07] looking for the parts that they're going
[14:08] to need to actually accomplish this cuz
[14:10] it might take him 20 years to get all
[14:13] Elon's been known to say it's going to
[14:15] happen sooner. It helps him raise more
[14:16] money. It helps him do things. So, let's
[14:18] assume it takes double the time for
[14:20] humanoids, for everything. Well, during
[14:21] that time, silver is going to be a
[14:22] bottleneck the entire time, and I think
[14:24] it'll go 10 times where it is today.
[14:26] Now, because it's not working right now,
[14:28] everyone's not involved cuz they like
[14:29] narratives on things that they can buy.
[14:31] Same thing with Bitcoin. Same thing with
[14:32] the whole crypto market. It's the reason
[14:34] why last week we talked about Lily. I
[14:35] know when to bring things to people.
[14:37] It's like, okay, they like to buy 52-
[14:38] week high, so I'll just focus on it.
[14:40] Nobody wants to buy Bitcoin right now
[14:41] because it's way below the 200 day
[14:42] moving average. And I get it. Um,
[14:44] narratives are things that give human
[14:46] beings the ability to feel comfortable
[14:48] that they can ride something because the
[14:50] dream is there. A lot of what Elon talks
[14:52] about is a dream, which I believe in,
[14:54] but I also understand from my father the
[14:56] distribution of possibilities of him
[14:59] accomplishing everything he needs for
[15:01] SpaceX to be worth what it is today.
[15:04] It's not I mean, it's a it's he needs to
[15:07] accomplish a lot and so it's a low
[15:08] probability event. I'll take silver and
[15:10] building a position here in silver and
[15:12] in copper. I have copper stuff. I'm
[15:14] buying energy because all of these
[15:16] things that you mentioned to get to the
[15:19] point where we're actually producing
[15:20] compute, we need to have these physical
[15:23] commodities. And what the guy said at
[15:25] all in is I don't know how we're going
[15:26] to get them. It's a very hard time to
[15:28] get them.
[15:29] >> Does that just mean that we're not going
[15:31] to be able to solve the problem and so
[15:32] price explodes or does that mean that we
[15:34] can't solve it in the short term? price
[15:36] starts to go up, but then there's a
[15:37] belief that innovation, entrepreneurs,
[15:39] more investment will then kind of unlock
[15:42] the bottleneck.
[15:43] >> Well, not so you I don't care how good
[15:46] innovation is, you can't get copper out
[15:48] of the ground quickly. You can be the
[15:49] smartest person in the world. If you
[15:51] want to create an algorithm, yeah, you
[15:53] can let that happen. Um, he brought up a
[15:55] point which, and I'm going to I'm going
[15:57] to butcher the name on this, but you
[15:58] guys can all go look it up. Indium, I
[16:01] think it's indium phosphate is a
[16:03] critical mineral. Um, it's very
[16:06] >> that sounds like something I should own,
[16:08] right?
[16:09] >> Well, here's the thing. It's it's a part
[16:10] of the world for Marll. It's a part of
[16:12] the world for Coherent. It's a part of
[16:14] the world for Lumenum. And guess who
[16:16] owns all of it? China.
[16:19] >> So, one of the reasons that I fully
[16:22] believe that the straight of Hormuz will
[16:25] open up when it needs to is China needs
[16:27] oil. China needs to import. Most of the
[16:30] oil they get are from Venezuela and Iran
[16:33] and Russia. And so when you go through
[16:34] it, we've taken away Venezuela and we've
[16:36] gone through it. So magically the
[16:38] coherent CEO was flying over to Trump
[16:40] when he went to go visit shei. And if
[16:43] you go look up indium indium phosphate,
[16:45] you'll realize it is the critical
[16:47] mineral in all data centers. You can't
[16:49] build data centers without it. And they
[16:51] control it. And they've kind of shut it
[16:52] off like they did rare earth. So when
[16:55] you get into these games behind the
[16:57] reason I bring it up is we need so many
[17:00] physical commodities that are impossible
[17:03] for us to get that if China and the US
[17:05] are continuing on this battle the
[17:07] friction of being able to get all this
[17:09] stuff done on the input costs is really
[17:10] difficult and that's why on the
[17:11] commodity side there will be hoarding we
[17:14] will continue to do it I think the US is
[17:16] trying to hoard energy China's hoarding
[17:18] all of the commod all of the minerals
[17:19] that they spend time on we have to
[17:21] figure a way to make new minerals that's
[17:22] what he was talking about so I just want
[17:24] to make sure when people go through this
[17:25] they realize this is not a smooth path.
[17:27] There are a lot of obstructions to
[17:29] getting to those numbers. And I've been
[17:30] talking about an AI midcycle slowdown,
[17:32] which to me is all about that the growth
[17:34] rate that we had already was a lot of
[17:36] hoarding. And now we're going to be in a
[17:38] phase for the next 3 to 6 months where a
[17:40] lot of these semiconductor names and a
[17:41] lot of the cooling names and a lot of
[17:43] all the things on the infrastructure.
[17:45] We're probably going to have equal news
[17:47] of disappointment with equal news of
[17:50] surprises because we just made it
[17:52] through where we shocked everyone and
[17:54] now we've got expectations of some of
[17:56] the largest earnings growth in the
[17:57] history of the market. So
[18:00] today's episode is brought to you by
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[18:56] >> All right, you ready for this? Uh, very
[18:58] in line with this. I had to look this up
[18:59] to make sure I don't screw this up.
[19:00] >> Okay,
[19:01] >> so there's a guy Alexander Cortez uh who
[19:04] I've met before. Um, he describes
[19:06] himself as a bro scientist. So he's very
[19:08] into lifting, very into nutrition, very
[19:11] into all of the the things that you
[19:13] would associate with a a bro scientist.
[19:14] Very proud of that fact. One of the
[19:16] things that he obviously is into is
[19:18] creatine.
[19:19] >> In creatine, he realized that there was
[19:22] some ingredients that are not made in
[19:24] America. And so as a pro scientist, if
[19:26] you're into creatine, you might be
[19:28] worried about the national defense of
[19:29] the supply chain of creatine, right?
[19:31] >> Is this the merging of us and Uberman
[19:34] right now? So, so this is uh a true
[19:37] story. So, he starts a company. The
[19:39] company is called Athanor. A T H A N O
[19:43] R. It is described as the specialty
[19:45] chemical platform of American defense
[19:48] industry.
[19:49] >> Now, when as he goes through it, what he
[19:51] basically says is that he believes
[19:52] America shifts towards greater
[19:53] industrial sovereignty. They're
[19:55] rebuilding the underlying chemistry. The
[19:56] mission is American independence in
[19:58] critical nitrogen chemicals
[20:00] >> starting with defense. So what he
[20:02] basically came to and people can go
[20:04] check out the website and stuff, right?
[20:04] But what he basically came to the
[20:05] conclusion of was there was this uh
[20:07] nitrogen type uh chemical that is in
[20:11] creatine
[20:12] >> and he discovered it as a bro scientist
[20:14] and realized hey that's not in America.
[20:15] So he went down this deep rabbit hole
[20:17] but then he realized hey there's a lot
[20:18] of other applications for it. My take
[20:20] away from that is I don't know anything
[20:21] about the science. I don't know if he
[20:23] will be successful or not. Smart guy
[20:24] he's got some funding and and he's going
[20:26] to go try to do this. how many like
[20:28] you're talking about critical uh or rare
[20:32] earths and critical minerals and all.
[20:34] He's talking about chemistry like if you
[20:36] were to make a list of how many things
[20:39] go into the products that we need here
[20:41] in America that are not controlled by
[20:43] America almost on a weekly basis now I
[20:46] realize that list is longer than I
[20:47] thought it was.
[20:49] >> Yeah. And now we're entering the point
[20:50] where we're going to figure out what we
[20:51] need for all this to go through it. So
[20:53] the the figuring out of what we need is
[20:55] going to happen. And remember, if you
[20:56] haven't read the story behind where they
[20:59] found a GLP1,
[21:01] it's a heila monster.
[21:02] >> A what?
[21:03] >> Hila monster.
[21:04] >> What is that?
[21:06] >> Give us a lizard.
[21:08] >> A lizard?
[21:08] >> Yeah.
[21:09] >> It was like in the lizard's body and
[21:10] then they extracted it.
[21:11] >> I And I I again, if you go listen to the
[21:13] interview,
[21:14] >> you're telling me that all these people
[21:14] trying to lose weight are using lizard
[21:16] extract?
[21:16] >> Well, lizards basically don't get
[21:19] hungry, I guess, is what it is. And they
[21:21] figured this out. So they wanted to find
[21:23] out how something could go long periods
[21:26] of time without eating much. I David
[21:28] Ricks and and Jensen Yuang talked about
[21:30] this on their interview from uh David
[21:31] Ricks from Eli Liy, but that is like the
[21:34] beginning part of studying and this is
[21:36] where almost every drug we get where he
[21:38] talks about how they would have
[21:40] scientists that would have to go they
[21:42] would just go every year into various
[21:44] countries and go strip soil and fungi
[21:47] from
[21:48] >> the earth,
[21:49] >> go test it and see what materials or
[21:51] chemistry was in it that they had never
[21:53] seen before and then see if it might be
[21:55] something that could be used on
[21:56] >> Darwin. Wasn't he is he the one who was
[21:58] on the uh the trip around the world on
[22:00] the boat and uh and discovered like by
[22:02] studying a bunch of animals a bunch of
[22:03] like scientific theories?
[22:05] >> Yeah. Andos.
[22:06] >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. So, we got
[22:08] Darwin Jensen.
[22:09] >> But this is the way pharmaceutical
[22:10] companies would find new advancements.
[22:12] But again, from the time you'd find it
[22:14] until the time that it went into a human
[22:15] body and it went through it. I mean, it
[22:17] could be a 30, 40, 50 year process. So,
[22:19] the Hila monster thing, it GLP1s had
[22:22] been around for a while, but
[22:24] >> maybe that's where lizard brain came
[22:25] from. You ever heard that term?
[22:27] >> No. But
[22:28] >> yeah, a lizard brain like like you know
[22:30] if somebody's got a lizard brain like a
[22:31] game because they're the ones trying to
[22:32] lose weight. Maybe
[22:33] >> you're teaching me new stuff today.
[22:36] >> All right, let's talk about for a second
[22:38] uh the AI model. So there's these two uh
[22:40] tweets that I saw that I think are very
[22:42] related but but pretty interesting. So
[22:43] the first is that uh Semi analysis the
[22:47] uh research firm went and they did a
[22:49] study. These guys went and they bought
[22:50] subscriptions to I think it was OpenAI
[22:52] and Anthropic and they basically started
[22:54] to use the product and they were trying
[22:55] to measure how many tokens are we using.
[22:57] What is the API cost of those tokens and
[23:00] then under the subscription what are we
[23:01] paying and so are these matching up or
[23:03] not? And the basics were these are being
[23:06] heavily subsidized by the companies. The
[23:08] companies are selling you tokens below
[23:10] their actual cost of production and
[23:12] therefore the companies may be driving
[23:13] tons of revenue but they're actually
[23:14] losing money in the short term. We've
[23:16] seen the story before. We've seen
[23:17] venture capitalists basically subsidize
[23:20] uh ride sharing, many other industries.
[23:23] At the same time, there is a guy who was
[23:26] tweeting saying that he thinks somewhere
[23:28] around 80 85% of queries could be moved
[23:31] off of the latest models. And so you
[23:34] don't need to use Fable 5 to figure out
[23:36] what the weather is or you know what uh
[23:38] the address of something is. Instead,
[23:40] you may be able to use just cheap free
[23:42] uh Chinese open source models.
[23:45] that feels like a lot of pressure on
[23:48] these AI companies. So on one hand you
[23:51] have at some point your investors are
[23:52] like stop subsidizing and get the
[23:54] positive unit economics and you know
[23:56] make sure that these are sustainable
[23:57] businesses. At the same time your
[23:59] customers are essentially saying wait a
[24:01] minute I am spending way too much money
[24:03] and so rather than having token
[24:04] leaderboards people are now talking
[24:06] about token limits for employees and and
[24:08] actually throttling the use of these
[24:10] technologies internally. Do you worry at
[24:13] all about the anthropic and open AIS and
[24:15] the, you know, pending IPOs and all that
[24:17] stuff from these stories or do you feel
[24:19] like the demand for this is just so off
[24:21] the charts that none of that matters?
[24:23] >> Well, I think there's two separate
[24:25] answers. Of course, it matters from a
[24:27] stock perspective. Does it matter for
[24:29] the companies being a bubble? No. Does
[24:32] it matter from the And I'll go through
[24:34] why. Does it matter from the company's
[24:37] um
[24:38] one of them being in trouble? Everyone
[24:40] thinks Open AI is in trouble. I I don't
[24:43] see it that way because we're still in
[24:44] the very early stages of adoption. Um
[24:47] the very early stages. So I think a lot
[24:50] of the issue is the acceleration again.
[24:51] And I'm going to keep saying this again
[24:53] and again and I think people need to,
[24:55] you know, to fully grasp it. If this was
[24:57] just software, there's no shortages or
[25:00] bottlenecks. Part of the issue that
[25:01] comes in on this is you talked about the
[25:04] price is going lower. The other side is
[25:06] the cost of producing the tokens is
[25:09] going up dramatically. And when I mean
[25:11] dramatically, I mean we're talking about
[25:14] four times where it was a year ago and
[25:16] it might get cheaper, you know, over
[25:19] time, but that's not happening yet. And
[25:20] we have bottlenecks. So, can we give
[25:22] them the capacity they need is one
[25:24] problem to be able to sustain the ARR.
[25:26] So, it's great if you have more
[25:27] adoption, but it's like, hey, I we have
[25:30] a thousand people that want to come in
[25:31] the restaurant tonight, but we only have
[25:32] 20 seats. Well, you're not making new
[25:34] seats. So you're in trouble. So you can
[25:36] charge more prices, you make it more
[25:38] exclusive, and that's what ends up
[25:39] happening with great restaurants. The
[25:42] model situation is is going to be a
[25:44] problem in my opinion for the near term.
[25:45] And that's why they're racing to the
[25:47] market. When you connect all the dots,
[25:48] why are they all coming to the market at
[25:50] the same time? Why did Google raise
[25:52] money? Why did Meta say a week or and a
[25:55] half later that they were going to come
[25:56] to the market for tens of billions? Why
[25:58] is SpaceX, which is an AI company,
[26:00] Anthropic, Open AAI, and then Open AI,
[26:03] Wall Street Journal article this week,
[26:05] price competition, we're going to lower
[26:06] prices. Like, I I think it's a it's a
[26:09] problem. And if that was not enough, you
[26:11] mentioned something critical. Deepseek
[26:14] is a major story that did not get any
[26:17] press in the last month. So they not
[26:19] only released their model which on a
[26:22] comparable basis is very close to the
[26:25] models
[26:26] but they reduced their price cost
[26:29] dramatically. the AI uh Chinese stocks,
[26:31] the model stocks
[26:33] are selling off and the reason is
[26:35] because they're in a deflationary
[26:37] situation and that has always been my
[26:39] belief is that these models will be
[26:41] commoditized that you don't need to use
[26:43] the most expensive ones and that the
[26:46] corporations haven't figured out yet how
[26:48] to use them. When you put all that
[26:49] together and then you add in Bernie
[26:51] Sanders and Donald Trump want to own
[26:53] part of the companies. I I posted on X.
[26:55] There are so many headwinds when the
[26:57] Pope speaks out against the models.
[26:59] Like, how many things do you want to
[27:00] have where people are like, "Slow this
[27:02] down." And then Daario released just
[27:05] yesterday. I think it was yesterday,
[27:07] maybe it was this morning, I don't know,
[27:08] but he released and I forget the name of
[27:10] it, but he released why we're at a
[27:13] critical point. Now, again, he does this
[27:15] all the time, but I happen to agree with
[27:18] one thing. We are getting closer and
[27:20] closer to AGI because coding is getting
[27:22] better and better. That is the next step
[27:24] to it. We've been doing it without
[27:26] Blackwell and Ver Rubin. Now we're going
[27:28] to have those as well. This is going to
[27:30] accelerate. So for everyone like just
[27:33] thinking there's no downside and that
[27:35] these curves are going to walk out.
[27:38] It's not going to happen that way.
[27:40] >> Why is everyone going public when the
[27:42] music's on? You better be dancing.
[27:44] George Soros, when I see a bubble, I
[27:46] rush in to push it higher. Like that's
[27:48] why, right? is like you go public now or
[27:50] you may not get a chance in 12 months,
[27:53] 18 months, whatever. So that's first.
[27:56] Second, the number one thing I tweeted
[27:59] this back in May and you know people,
[28:01] they're still trying to figure out if I
[28:02] know what I'm talking about with the AI
[28:03] stuff. I said, every single conversation
[28:07] I'm having with the CEO of private
[28:09] companies right now, the mandate from
[28:11] heaven 12 months ago, everyone use AI.
[28:13] Now, wait a minute, these bills are too
[28:16] high. how do we go and try to figure out
[28:18] some different way doesn't mean we don't
[28:20] want you to use the AI but we need to
[28:22] get smarter about how we efficiently
[28:25] consume these tokens right so it was we
[28:27] want to use AI we just want lower cost
[28:28] and so naturally there there's an
[28:30] economic incentive to go pursue this
[28:32] >> now what I also find really interesting
[28:34] is people in terms of users whether it's
[28:37] open AI anthropic we see it with Sylvia
[28:40] etc they are learning what the
[28:43] limitations of these products are but
[28:45] they're realizing that the limitations
[28:47] are way further than they thought they
[28:49] were. And so you I have the Sylvia data.
[28:53] It used to be that people ask six
[28:54] questions per week per user.
[28:56] >> Mhm.
[28:56] >> It's a lot. Almost one a day. It's now
[28:59] 15.
[29:01] I'd like to think we're some geniuses
[29:02] and we made the user experience so much
[29:04] better. Whatever. No. People started to
[29:06] realize what can I do with this thing?
[29:09] The thing got smarter because we keep
[29:10] upgrading the models and therefore you
[29:12] at from a demand perspective ask more
[29:14] and more questions. That's got to be
[29:16] happening. You're you're telling me that
[29:17] Fable 5, you know, uh, queries per
[29:19] person per week is not higher than
[29:22] whatever, you know, opus 4.6 or what? Of
[29:24] course, it is.
[29:25] >> And so, as you see this going, it again
[29:28] is not just a look at today's demand and
[29:30] look at today's supply. This is a very
[29:32] weird market where demand is actually
[29:35] going exponential
[29:36] >> and the supply is not responding in the
[29:39] way that it needs to. So, the problem
[29:41] you're identifying today is actually
[29:44] getting worse. And I think that's maybe
[29:46] the the aspect that people don't quite
[29:48] yet wrap their head around is if the
[29:50] models are getting better and demand is
[29:54] also exponentially increasing and that's
[29:56] just humans we haven't talked about the
[29:57] AI agents doing all this stuff
[30:00] how does this end like do we get to a
[30:03] point where do you see the ad uh product
[30:06] so when you when you uh put in a query
[30:08] somebody built a plugin
[30:09] >> Mhm. So you put in a query, you got to
[30:11] wait. Well, why don't I just serve you
[30:13] ads and if you watch the ads, then you
[30:15] can get paid to cover some of the cost
[30:17] of the compute that you're using at the
[30:18] same time.
[30:19] >> So like you people are going to start
[30:20] doing what the internet does, right?
[30:23] >> Do we just end up in a world where
[30:25] everyone is watching the spinning dial
[30:26] and just, you know, waiting and waiting
[30:28] and waiting and waiting.
[30:29] >> Well, I I think you brought up a point
[30:31] that that I've said to people when they
[30:33] get too negative. So the one side it's
[30:35] like, okay, don't be too positive. And
[30:37] the other side, you're talking about
[30:38] innovations that are going to happen
[30:39] that they're going to figure out. So I
[30:42] I'll give you two examples. One is when
[30:43] you get on an airplane, there's first
[30:45] class, there's business class, there's
[30:47] comfort, there's all these different
[30:48] things and they're priced differently.
[30:51] Um the amount of capacity that Anthropic
[30:53] has access to. You mentioned that
[30:55] there's a lot of things that are costing
[30:57] them money, but then on the flip side,
[31:00] they have a lot of high margin agentic
[31:02] stuff and for inference. Now, if a
[31:05] cancer company is willing to pay for
[31:07] this cuz they have a product that could
[31:09] make them a ton of money, then why
[31:10] shouldn't they be using this than Tom
[31:12] and Mary using it to just chat and
[31:15] paying the $20 which is costing them
[31:17] money cuz they're using it all the time.
[31:18] Eventually, what'll happen is that'll
[31:21] change and they're going to direct
[31:23] people to cheaper models because they're
[31:24] like, "Hey, it's $5 if you use Opus 4.7,
[31:28] which is a great model. It's just not as
[31:29] good as Fable." and they'll start
[31:32] figuring ways to get that capacity off
[31:34] of there over time. There'll be ways for
[31:36] them to do an open source model. We're
[31:39] starting to see more open source models.
[31:40] So, we didn't talk about it, but Neatron
[31:42] Neatron, which is the Nvidia one, it's
[31:45] pretty high on the list. I was shocked
[31:47] at how well it did. I mean, Nvidia puts
[31:50] out an open source model to compete with
[31:51] the Chinese models, and it's not that
[31:53] far below. I read some of the things on
[31:55] there. I mean, it's it's it's a lesser
[31:57] model, but the question is, do you
[31:59] actually need those? And if you can get
[32:00] a laptop and a phone that has Neatron on
[32:02] it, is that a better way to do things?
[32:04] So, I think we're we're missing that
[32:06] between Yeah. advertisements will be on.
[32:08] You're going to have this. You'll have
[32:10] surge pricing like, "Hey, just like you
[32:12] do with Uber. It's like, hey, right now
[32:14] we've got this much capacity. Who wants
[32:15] it? You can pay the most. This is what
[32:16] you're going to pay for." I think
[32:18] everything is going to be over time
[32:20] automated more. I just think that this
[32:22] period for the next three to four years,
[32:24] we just don't know what's how
[32:26] commoditized it'll get, how difficult
[32:29] it's going to get for all these
[32:30] companies. And I've believed all the
[32:32] time and I still believe it. I don't
[32:33] think all of these companies are going
[32:35] to win in the end.
[32:37] >> Who's going to lose?
[32:39] >> Come on, we're here for Alpha. So I I
[32:41] will say that if you ask me between
[32:44] Daario and Sam Alman
[32:48] who I think now Sam Alman in my guess is
[32:50] not going to be the leader of OpenAI at
[32:52] some point soon. That's just my guess.
[32:54] >> Soon.
[32:55] >> Yeah. I I would be shocked if with
[32:57] within a year if he's still running
[32:59] OpenAI. That's just me.
[33:01] >> Because he doesn't want to run or
[33:02] because they may ask him to step down.
[33:03] >> I I'm going to say both. Um remember the
[33:06] incident at his house and all this
[33:08] stuff. I I I'm I'm not sure it's fun
[33:11] like to be in that position right now.
[33:13] Uh I just think that Daario has chosen a
[33:16] political angle in this whole thing
[33:18] which is fairly popular with half of the
[33:21] country and I think Sam Alman has nobody
[33:24] who seems to really like him. Um but the
[33:28] product people do like and I still use
[33:30] it at this point or not still. I did
[33:32] have a period where I used Claude almost
[33:34] exclusively and it went down
[33:35] significantly but now I've gone back to
[33:37] Chad GBT. So I just think in the end
[33:39] OpenAI has an uphill battle because they
[33:41] made a bad decision. They tried to
[33:44] choose the consumer Apple side as
[33:46] opposed to the enterprise side. And I
[33:48] think as long and since Andre Carpathy
[33:52] was brought into um CL uh Anthropic and
[33:55] I keep hearing that they're just
[33:57] attracting the best talent now. I think
[33:59] it's really going to be hard for them to
[34:00] catch up in something as important as
[34:02] coding which will lead to AGI. I I just
[34:05] think at the end anthropic is is is the
[34:07] winner of that battle from from my
[34:09] perspective of
[34:10] >> I mean they are definitely the winner
[34:11] today right um in growth rate revenue
[34:15] momentum you know all all of that stuff
[34:17] um it is a different market that they're
[34:19] going after but but I do think that
[34:20] that's a key part the big thing I wonder
[34:23] is uh can they go and strike uh open can
[34:26] they go and strike deals like could they
[34:28] be part of the Apple ecosystem and you
[34:31] know somehow get their product embedded
[34:33] I I have no clue But, uh, that seems
[34:34] big. All right, guys. Let's talk about
[34:36] something that's actually moving the
[34:38] needle in crypto right now, and that's
[34:39] my guys over at Arch Public. These guys
[34:41] are killing it. They continue to lead
[34:43] the way in everything that's got to do
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[37:09] Let's talk um you and I are both Knicks
[37:11] fans.
[37:12] >> We're not going to spend a lot of time
[37:13] on the fact that uh the New York Knicks
[37:15] are going to win the NBA championship
[37:16] and uh you know, greatest comeback of
[37:18] all time, etc. U we could talk all day
[37:20] long about how uh Wimi is the greatest
[37:23] choke artist of the NBA. Um or that he's
[37:26] soft and got hit in the head with an
[37:27] egg. We're not going to talk about all
[37:28] that. I
[37:28] >> guess you're trying to lose the San
[37:29] Antonio audience now.
[37:30] >> Well, you know, Charles Barkley already
[37:32] shared a lot about San Antonio. I'm not
[37:33] going to go there. Um but but uh you
[37:36] went to the game as did I and you had a
[37:38] very interesting insight which the
[37:40] Knicks NBA Finals experience
[37:44] drew something back to your thought
[37:45] process around AI, crypto, etc. explain
[37:48] a little bit uh what your takeaway was.
[37:51] >> Well, first of all, if you go to my
[37:52] YouTube channel and you look at my image
[37:54] there, I have a Knicks hat on. That's
[37:56] from years ago. Um the Knicks are very
[38:00] important part of who I am as a person.
[38:02] I'm not going to go in great detail.
[38:03] I'll probably write something about this
[38:05] soon, but let's just say I I went to
[38:07] hundreds of games uh as a kid myself,
[38:11] meaning my father never took me to a
[38:14] Knicks game ever. I decid my when my
[38:16] parents got divorced, I started going to
[38:18] the Knicks game. And I was a young kid,
[38:20] skinny, acne,
[38:22] introvert, and someone who, let's just
[38:25] say, was more on the popular side of
[38:27] school, uh, kind of adopted me. I was a
[38:29] good athlete, um, captain of some of my
[38:32] teams and, um, had a brain, and he
[38:34] identified that, but I was a massive
[38:35] sports fan and I was a bit of a, uh,
[38:38] strange kid in the fact that I could
[38:39] memorize baseball cards and I knew stats
[38:41] on everything and I was an analytical
[38:43] geek. and we just started talking sports
[38:44] and he and I started going to the Nick
[38:46] games. Uh for those of you old enough,
[38:48] Harry M. Stevens, which used to do the
[38:50] um the refreshments and everything
[38:53] there, selling the cotton candy and the
[38:54] stuff in the stands. Well, let's just
[38:56] say to get in the games, I paid those
[38:58] people. I would show up with my friend.
[39:00] We'd pay them five bucks and they'd
[39:02] bring us up the back halls and bring us
[39:03] into the game. And
[39:04] >> in those days when they were really
[39:06] door,
[39:06] >> yeah, they were really bad. Uh I'd sit
[39:10] wherever I wanted cuz there's nobody in
[39:11] there. Uh the scalpers, I knew all of
[39:13] them by name. We would sit outside and
[39:15] they'd throw the tickets, crumbled
[39:16] tickets at us because we would wait
[39:17] until the end. We said we'd give them
[39:19] five bucks. They would hold out and then
[39:20] at halftime they'd give us the tickets
[39:21] we'd go in. So it was a huge part of me
[39:24] starting to take risk. It was a huge
[39:25] thing. But I remember all of this and in
[39:27] 1999 after having gone to most of the
[39:30] important games because luckily I
[39:32] started making enough money to be able
[39:34] to afford them. My friend and I went in
[39:36] 99 and that game ends. Disappointment.
[39:39] We're depressed. We're both Nick fans.
[39:41] were both Met fans and Ranger fans and
[39:44] Jet Well, I was a Jet fan. He was a
[39:46] Giant fan, but next year we go to the
[39:47] Subway Series and here's where the long
[39:49] story ends. Um,
[39:51] >> other than your poor team selection,
[39:52] other than the Knicks.
[39:53] >> Yeah. No, no, no. Let's just take it for
[39:54] where it is. So, we go to the Subway
[39:56] Series games and at the end of them
[39:58] losing, he turns me cuz I bought all of
[40:00] the tickets to all of the games and he's
[40:01] like, "Are we going to have enough money
[40:05] to buy tickets when these teams finally
[40:08] win?"
[40:09] So he died a year later in 911.
[40:12] And so the hard part for me in going to
[40:14] hundreds of games with that one person,
[40:17] how do I go back to a game? And the
[40:18] Knicks are my team. Like that is it. The
[40:20] other teams I I like. Um the Knicks I
[40:23] love and it's it's a passion for me. So
[40:24] it took me a while to go back to the
[40:26] Garden. So fast forward to this
[40:28] particular event.
[40:30] >> Um Wednesday was Wednesday the the
[40:32] >> greatest basketball game ever played.
[40:34] >> The g greatest comeback ever. And I will
[40:37] say um I've become good friends and
[40:39] actually advisor to a company Candy
[40:42] Digital and we both know Tad Smith who's
[40:44] involved with it and I got to to go with
[40:46] them. Now Candy Digital the reason I got
[40:48] interested in what they were doing is
[40:50] because of the experiential side. So,
[40:52] I've written about my belief in stable
[40:54] coins, tokenization, and NFTTS as the
[40:56] three stools of the utilization and the
[40:58] network effects of crypto. And being at
[41:01] the game Wednesday, uh, as a sports fan,
[41:04] when you win two in a row on the other
[41:06] team's home court, your brain is
[41:07] immediately, okay, we got a 90 plus%
[41:09] chance of winning this thing.
[41:11] >> Knicks fans were outside with brooms.
[41:12] >> We're we're we're gonna have this done.
[41:14] Then you go to game three, you watch it,
[41:17] and you're like, okay, you know, we were
[41:20] a little too high on things. We had to
[41:21] come when you're in the stadium and this
[41:24] is what I thought about in game four. So
[41:25] for crypto people, this is what I
[41:27] believe. The world is filled with AI
[41:30] slop and it's only going to get worse.
[41:32] The world is fake filled with deep
[41:33] seats, deep fakes. It's only going to
[41:35] get worse. This will never stop.
[41:38] Anything that you watch, there will be
[41:39] billions of movies. There will be it
[41:41] will be impossible. There will be
[41:42] billions of podcasts and there will be
[41:45] impossible to find stuff. The best
[41:47] content will rise to the surface. But
[41:49] the experiential side of Wednesday night
[41:51] blew me away. So I sat there thinking
[41:53] about NFTTS from the community aspect of
[41:56] being there. It was a game where I
[41:58] thought they were halftime. I'm like,
[42:00] "Oh my god, my brain, the anxiety that's
[42:02] happening. We not only won the first
[42:04] two, but now we're going to lose the
[42:05] next two, have to go back. We lost
[42:07] homecourt advantage." So I was already
[42:09] extrapolating if they lose, how bad
[42:10] it'll be. You can't replace that with
[42:12] AI. That feeling when I left and I
[42:15] headed back to Brooklyn, I took subways.
[42:19] Everyone on there was screaming. It was
[42:22] filled at
[42:23] >> the subway the subway employees.
[42:26] >> They were honking the horn when they
[42:29] came into the the station at both
[42:30] places. So the city itself, the
[42:34] community, and these were people not at
[42:35] the game. So people realize
[42:37] >> the community aspect, the experiential
[42:39] side of I was there, I'm a Nick fan, all
[42:42] of those things. You guys don't have to
[42:43] believe in NFTTS because of the art side
[42:45] and all of the things you saw, but the
[42:47] true aspect of how important that event
[42:49] was and how it cannot be replaced by me
[42:51] by a TV show, by anything. And being
[42:54] there and feeling it was the most
[42:55] powerful thing. And so in a world of AI,
[42:58] in a world where you don't know what's
[43:00] real on anything, I fundamentally
[43:02] believe the blockchain and crypto is
[43:04] critical to all this stuff. So, it was a
[43:06] big event for me on many, many levels,
[43:08] but it was especially a big event to
[43:10] connect it back to this thing of having
[43:13] an NFT for it, to knowing that I'm part
[43:15] of the Knicks community, feeling it
[43:16] afterwards, and just feeling the special
[43:18] nature of what the city was like.
[43:20] >> All right. I I uh I won't play devil's
[43:22] advocate for this.
[43:22] >> Okay.
[43:23] >> Because uh while you were talking, I
[43:25] remembered the tickets I had were on my
[43:28] phone,
[43:28] >> you know, Apple wallet, I go up, very
[43:31] easy to get in, by the way. Anything you
[43:32] read on uh uh in the media that it was
[43:34] hard to get in was not my experience. I
[43:36] don't know about you.
[43:36] >> Ticket Master is an early edition of
[43:38] NFTs.
[43:39] >> Yeah. So those tickets though on your
[43:42] Apple wallet disappear in the sense of
[43:44] you can't do anything with them.
[43:45] >> Mhm.
[43:46] >> So what did the Knicks do? They gave out
[43:48] every fan who showed up got three
[43:50] things. You got a t-shirt.
[43:52] >> Monday night t-shirts were awesome. Like
[43:55] old school wrestling t-shirts basically.
[43:57] get a towel and then they handed you a
[44:01] physical inside of a laminate case, a
[44:04] physical commemorative ticket. And I
[44:07] said to myself, it's like hilarious that
[44:11] everything went digital, but people
[44:13] still want the commemorative ticket.
[44:16] Now, the reason why that's interesting
[44:17] to me is Darren Rovel, sports business
[44:20] guy, super into collectibles and
[44:21] physical stuff. Um, couple hot takes
[44:24] here and there, doesn't like Bitcoin,
[44:25] but that's besides the point. Um
[44:28] he was talking about those commemorative
[44:30] tickets from the game Wednesday night,
[44:32] game four, greatest comeback of all time
[44:35] already by Thursday morning like 50 of
[44:38] them had sold on eBay. And so you say to
[44:41] yourself, wait a second, this isn't even
[44:42] a real ticket to the game. This is
[44:43] basically like a a chachki that got
[44:45] handed out right now. It has a story
[44:47] behind it. It has, you know, in the
[44:49] moment like the morning after versus
[44:51] will they be valuable in 10, 20 years?
[44:53] Who knows, right?
[44:55] But isn't them giving that commemorative
[44:57] ticket, the fact that people watch
[44:58] something physical as the like memory?
[45:01] >> No.
[45:01] >> Or do you think it's a a both? It's not
[45:03] an eitheror.
[45:05] >> So, let's put it this way. Um,
[45:08] tomorrow, if these things are selling on
[45:10] eBay for any amount of money, there'll
[45:13] be a flood of fakes in 2 seconds made,
[45:15] and there'll be 24 million of them sold
[45:18] at whatever price people want to pay for
[45:19] until the price drops. This is the whole
[45:21] point of scarcity. This is the whole
[45:23] point of is it a real thing or is it a
[45:25] fake thing? Well, you don't know unless
[45:26] it's on the blockchain. And this is my
[45:28] belief on on on AI and deep fakes. This
[45:31] is my belief in everything is that
[45:32] people are underestimating that that
[45:35] event is much better for two reasons on
[45:39] the blockchain. Number one, it's
[45:41] actually proof that you were at the
[45:42] game. Number two,
[45:45] you don't have to worry about losing it.
[45:48] You have it. It's in your wallet. It's
[45:50] part of your DNA. It's a passport. It is
[45:52] what it is. This is the whole point of
[45:55] going through it. So, I just I sent a
[45:57] photo of the one that I got at game one
[45:59] at game three and then sent it out at
[46:02] game four. But that thing means nothing
[46:04] to me. And it comes from a person who
[46:06] handed down to his son Bernard King
[46:08] jerseys. I handed down to him the New
[46:11] York Post headline of the Subway series
[46:13] when they were starting it with all of
[46:15] the tickets to the game, the physical
[46:16] tickets to the game. When my friend died
[46:18] in 911, the obituary in the New York
[46:21] Times said that in his wall were Nick
[46:23] tickets and Bruce Springsteen tickets
[46:24] everywhere. So again, those physical
[46:26] tickets
[46:28] >> that's been in the past.
[46:29] >> Did you say Did you save yours?
[46:31] >> Save which one?
[46:32] >> The commemorative ticket from Game Four.
[46:34] I'm I'm about to break your heart or
[46:35] make you very happy.
[46:36] >> Yes, I did.
[46:37] >> Okay. I I I have one. Thankfully, my
[46:39] wife also uh saved hers right now on
[46:42] eBay.
[46:42] >> Yep.
[46:42] >> They're going for between $300
[46:45] >> Mhm. And I see some listed as high as uh
[46:48] 450.
[46:50] I mean that that that's crazy. By the
[46:52] way, that's more the commemorative
[46:54] tickets from game four might be more
[46:55] than some of the Spurs tickets were
[46:58] >> earlier in the playoffs.
[47:00] >> Yeah. Again, I I think it's very
[47:01] difficult for people to envision the
[47:03] world that's coming due to AI. But
[47:06] again, I do this as a joke, but I'm
[47:08] like, if you're not thinking that five,
[47:10] if you go back five years,
[47:13] that is after co, that's how soon five
[47:16] years ago was. Well, 5 years from now,
[47:18] we're going to have humanoids
[47:20] >> in the street. We're going to have
[47:21] humanoids in many, many places.
[47:24] >> So, you can't envision the world that is
[47:26] going to be here when everything you
[47:28] don't know if it's real or fake. You
[47:30] already really don't know that with
[47:31] anything. And people might think they
[47:33] are, but I'm telling you things will
[47:35] have to be put on the blockchain. And
[47:37] whether it's real world assets that are
[47:38] converted, my belief, and that's why
[47:41] these things right now might have some
[47:42] value to people because they want to
[47:44] have them and say that they were there,
[47:45] but the reality is it's not going to
[47:48] >> last thing. Uh we did not plan to talk
[47:49] about this. We only got a couple minutes
[47:50] before we got to go, but uh Jeff Bezos
[47:53] announced Prometheus, I think is how you
[47:55] pronounce it. Um maybe I'm butchering
[47:57] it, but matters. Jeff Bezos's new
[47:59] company. He's co-CEO, which uh he seems
[48:02] pretty involved. They raised something
[48:04] like $12 billion at a $40 billion
[48:06] valuation. Some crazy number. Uh to be
[48:08] honest, like Jeff Bezos, I'm surprised
[48:09] he doesn't just raise at a trillion.
[48:11] Like he's like, "I'm Jeff Bezos and I'm
[48:12] doing something in manufacturing." But
[48:14] the entire idea is he basically wants to
[48:16] use AI and he wants to use hardware to
[48:18] get better at building things. So his
[48:21] thing is if it would take I think the
[48:22] quote I saw was something like 10,000
[48:24] people 10 years to do something, why
[48:25] can't we do it with 100 people in a
[48:27] year, right? How do you significantly
[48:28] increase the efficiency? Um, excited
[48:32] about this? Think this is, you know,
[48:34] Bezos retirement plan and he's just, you
[48:37] know, playing around. What What are your
[48:39] take?
[48:40] >> I I mean, to a degree, this is kind of
[48:43] Chimath's 8020 business. I think it's
[48:46] 8020 or is it 9010? I can't even
[48:48] remember. But regardless, um, let me do
[48:51] 90% of the work with 10% of the people
[48:52] or 80% of the work with 20% of the
[48:54] people. I think when I pay attention to
[48:56] the pharmaceutical industry and I think
[48:58] about how how they're going to move from
[49:01] getting things from phase one and as I
[49:04] mentioned with the Eli Lilly paper when
[49:06] a company that has historically showed
[49:09] the world what it's doing in phase one
[49:12] and now it won't do that because it
[49:13] believes that the ability to catch up
[49:15] due to AI on something like
[49:17] pharmaceuticals is quick that it only
[49:18] makes sense that they would start doing
[49:20] this in the manufacturing and the
[49:21] physical side particularly as we're
[49:23] getting closer to humanoids. So does it
[49:25] make sense? Of course it makes sense.
[49:27] And I think this is the trend. I think
[49:28] from the perspective what he's doing,
[49:30] he's trying to get ahead of the curve
[49:31] and make sure that on the physical side
[49:33] there's a company that can be used to to
[49:36] be used in the process. And I think
[49:39] that's where this is all going is that
[49:40] it's much easier to have an outside
[49:43] place be hired to do that as opposed to
[49:46] you figuring out as a company how to
[49:48] spend the money and go through it. And
[49:50] so all of these moving pieces with very
[49:52] smart people in Silicon Valley and this
[49:54] is I think where the MIT grads are going
[49:56] is everything is now towards the
[49:57] physical hardware side because that is
[49:59] the bottleneck. So the one good thing
[50:02] about innovation in human beings if
[50:06] there's a bottleneck that means there's
[50:08] inflation. If there's inflation that
[50:10] means there's margin that can be made
[50:12] and there's a demand for it. Because if
[50:15] inflation at a time where we have
[50:17] constant deflation due to innovation,
[50:19] the way that we solve that problem is we
[50:20] throw a lot of money at it and we throw
[50:22] a lot of in um and a lot of innovation
[50:24] at it. And so I think he's just hitting
[50:26] on a topic that I talk about all the
[50:28] time here, which is the bottlenecks are
[50:29] real and he's trying to get a company
[50:31] that is to help with the bottlenecks
[50:32] regardless of where it is.
[50:33] >> All right, before I let you go, this is
[50:34] my uh one AI use case of the week to
[50:37] blow your mind. We're we're going to
[50:38] start a new series here now that we're
[50:40] in the conversation cathedral. Um Todd
[50:44] Saunders tweeted, "Methos and Fable is
[50:48] unbelievable. I was on a customer call
[50:50] today and had Claude transcribing in the
[50:52] background. As the customer was telling
[50:54] me about the features they wish their
[50:55] current software had, Claude was
[50:57] building the features in real time. By
[51:00] the end of the call, I was able to show
[51:02] a fully working product with the exact
[51:04] workflow they mentioned 15 minutes
[51:05] earlier. Autonomous looped building
[51:08] triggered from a customer call.
[51:12] If you're a salesperson and you can do
[51:14] that, you may become a trillionaire.
[51:17] Like if you can build custom software
[51:20] while on the call with the customer
[51:21] before the end of the call, show them
[51:22] the solution.
[51:23] >> Yeah.
[51:24] >> So, let's just get back to the parents
[51:26] out there of kids. And I met with
[51:28] someone I worked with when I first got
[51:29] to Morgan Stanley. Um he wanted to uh he
[51:33] wanted me to sit down with his oldest
[51:36] kids. So, I I met them um after a
[51:38] workout. I sat down. We talked for an
[51:40] hour and change. And the entire
[51:42] conversation was about artificial
[51:44] intelligence. And you know, I I have
[51:47] this and we talked about this
[51:48] beforehand, but I I put together this
[51:50] this payw wall because there were three
[51:53] components that I think are critical.
[51:54] And this is not a promo for people to go
[51:56] sign up, but this is just the way that I
[51:59] would think about it.
[52:01] So for me, in trying to explain to
[52:04] people what's going on every day, you
[52:06] and I talk about everything that
[52:08] happens. And we don't have to create a
[52:10] script on what we talk about. It's just
[52:12] you and I going through X and reading
[52:13] the same stuff. It's amazing everything
[52:16] that happens in a week. It is impossible
[52:18] for a human being to keep up on that at
[52:20] a job unless they're listening to
[52:22] podcasts where someone is doing it for
[52:23] them. Well, that's what I do on the payw
[52:25] wall is I'm trying to in the weekly
[52:26] video it's give people what's happened
[52:29] for the week. In the payw wall, I go
[52:31] further and I write papers about
[52:33] specific topics and things like that to
[52:35] explain it in a way that hopefully they
[52:36] understand it. That's the signal part
[52:38] like there's value in knowing what's
[52:40] happening and what's going on. The alpha
[52:42] part is for the investors and that part
[52:44] is what names they should focus on. If I
[52:46] talk about Micron, if I talk about
[52:47] Marll, how are they connected? It's
[52:49] giving them the explanation of which
[52:50] theme they fit into in AI and the whole
[52:52] infrastructure. So from an empowerment
[52:54] basis, this is a bull market in AI and
[52:57] there are going to be periods like now
[52:58] where I think we're in a midcycle
[52:59] slowdown. That doesn't mean that it's a
[53:01] bubble. That just means they go
[53:02] sideways. Some of the names have trouble
[53:04] but I think the hyperscalers have more
[53:06] trouble than these guys do. So I try to
[53:07] prevent waves that they can be long and
[53:09] things that can be short what the timing
[53:10] would be. But the final part is the most
[53:12] important and that's what I spent the
[53:14] time with um my friend's son and that's
[53:16] what the parent should do. Your children
[53:18] need to be using AI. So that example you
[53:21] gave
[53:23] anyone can do something like that but
[53:25] they have to use artificial intelligence
[53:28] every day. And so when someone goes,
[53:30] "Well, this is this the major I have and
[53:32] this is the degree, the job I want to
[53:34] get." I'm like, "There are no more
[53:36] silos, guys." Like the silos are over. I
[53:39] know you you think you have to stay in
[53:41] your major. Don't think that way. Take a
[53:43] job, help a company in a different
[53:45] business, help a company in something
[53:47] else. All of those skills, by the end of
[53:49] time, you'll be an AI native person that
[53:51] is able to do the things that you
[53:52] mentioned.
[53:53] >> I um I think that this is just the tip
[53:56] of the iceberg. Like I saw that and I
[53:58] was like, "Oh my god, imagine how you
[53:59] could build things for children, you
[54:02] could build things for customers, you
[54:03] could build whatever." So, um, all
[54:04] right. You're not going to tell people
[54:05] to go sign up. I'm going to tell people
[54:06] to go sign up for your payw wall. Uh,
[54:08] what is the URL for this thing?
[54:10] >> It's, uh, ai.22varche.com.
[54:14] >> All right. AI.22vresearch.com.
[54:17] If Jord's ever helped you, go sign up.
[54:19] Just just do it. I'm not going to give
[54:20] you some hard pitch, whatever. Help the
[54:22] guy out, right? He's doing a lot of
[54:23] work. U, it'd be very nice of you. you
[54:25] know, consider like a father's day gift,
[54:27] maybe a birthday gift, uh anniversary
[54:29] gift, what, whatever.
[54:30] >> And this week I did put up how to build
[54:32] a knowledge brain 30 minutes so you can
[54:34] build Jensen Yuang's knowledge brain
[54:36] that I've talked about on this show.
[54:38] >> Yeah, there you go. So, if you've made
[54:39] money listening in shorty, come on,
[54:40] let's go. It's called a tip. Go tip them
[54:43] at ai.22vresearch.com.
[54:45] Um, thank you for doing this. Do it
[54:46] again next week. Go next.