Bitcoin & AI Will DOMINATE The Next Rotation

[0:00] I just think Bitcoin right now, you have
[0:02] to watch it. And if we start to trade
[0:04] higher, and I'll give everyone a level.
[0:05] If we trade above 76,000, and at the
[0:08] same time, we see Ethereum above 2400, I
[0:11] believe that is the beginning of a move
[0:13] that will be sustainable this year
[0:16] because I don't think we're going to
[0:17] have a recession. I think inflation is
[0:18] going to stay elevated, and I think
[0:20] people are going to need to find
[0:21] something that is making money in a
[0:23] world where the S&P is not moving
[0:24] anywhere. What's going on, guys? In
[0:26] today's conversation with Jordi Visser,
[0:27] we go over all of the latest inflation
[0:29] data, what's going on with scarcity
[0:31] trade, abundance trade, how he's
[0:33] thinking about the difference between
[0:34] software stocks and AI stocks, how he's
[0:36] seeing Bitcoin and why it's starting to
[0:38] perform pretty well. And he's going to
[0:39] drop some alpha, some data that he went
[0:41] and he pulled as to when Bitcoin does
[0:43] best and why right now may be a time to
[0:46] start paying attention. All that and
[0:47] much more in my conversation with Jordy
[0:49] Visser. Jordy, the Iran war seems to
[0:52] have this ceasefire and markets are
[0:54] rallying. Everyone seems to be very
[0:55] excited that this thing is going to be
[0:57] over. I think maybe you have a little
[0:58] bit more tempered expectation. What's
[1:00] going on right now?
[1:02] >> Uh well, I think rather than get into
[1:04] the focus of the direction, I think
[1:06] every week I say to people this is going
[1:08] to be uh a continuous year of rotation
[1:11] uh just because of how mispositioned
[1:13] people are for artificial intelligence.
[1:15] So if you go back to the end of February
[1:18] just before the war started you know
[1:20] everything that we talked about was
[1:22] hardware semiconductors and commodities
[1:24] on the long side shortages scarcity
[1:28] and then on the short side were the
[1:31] negative news which is really about
[1:34] software private credit and that whole
[1:38] those things haven't bounced at all. In
[1:39] fact, software has made new lows and has
[1:42] been destroyed the last three days. And
[1:45] it's because again of AI progress. So,
[1:48] you know, I I think because of the
[1:50] headlines, people get caught in this
[1:52] thing. Believe it or not, we finished
[1:53] yesterday with the S&P unchanged for the
[1:55] year. And as I've said um repeatedly and
[1:58] will continue to say, there is no
[2:00] recession coming. And that's because the
[2:02] AI demand is massive. At the same time,
[2:06] we're the new news that has happened
[2:07] since before the war that has not
[2:09] changed. There are no more rate cuts
[2:11] built in. Uh we have zero rate cuts by
[2:14] the end of the year. At the same time,
[2:17] we have gas at the pump and diesel up
[2:20] significantly. And even though people
[2:22] are hopeful that these prices will come
[2:24] down because of the ceasefire, I I don't
[2:28] believe they're going to come down and
[2:29] definitely not all the way down. We
[2:31] haven't got into the food side. We've
[2:33] moved uh we've moved to a place where
[2:36] inflation is going to be significantly
[2:38] higher and it could be higher than any
[2:41] time outside believe it or not outside
[2:44] of 2022. We could have headline
[2:47] inflation up at 6% which would be the
[2:49] highest level since I think the early
[2:51] '9s. So people are not in my opinion um
[2:56] focused on the important thing which is
[2:58] that AI progress is accelerating even
[3:01] faster. That disruption that whole
[3:04] supersonic tsunami that both you and I
[3:06] have you know stolen from uh from Elon
[3:09] Musk and from the moonshots crew. I
[3:12] think that's where people should be
[3:13] focused. So it's all about hardware
[3:15] semis and commodities on the long side
[3:17] and it's about software and private
[3:18] credit on the short side. But I don't
[3:20] think that's going to change for the
[3:21] entire year.
[3:22] >> There are people who are watching this
[3:23] who are going to hear you say two things
[3:25] and they think that they're incompatible
[3:27] with each other. Software is on the
[3:29] short side. AI is on the long side. They
[3:33] think of software and AI as the same
[3:35] thing. Explain the difference.
[3:37] >> Yeah. And that's an important point
[3:39] because that's why
[3:41] that's why a lot of ETFs and a lot of
[3:43] things on the long side for AI uh most
[3:46] of the baskets are software. um they
[3:48] just are uh every single software name
[3:52] is getting hit. Even this week,
[3:53] Palanteer, which is a name that I've
[3:55] been, you know, talking about, I had to
[3:56] post in X yesterday that even it
[3:59] relative to Microsoft gave up the entire
[4:01] 25% gain that occurred since, you know,
[4:04] midFebruary after the selloff. Every
[4:07] software name's getting hit. So, let's
[4:08] go through what AI is, cuz this gets
[4:10] into the abundance side. Artificial
[4:12] intelligence has made coding free. It
[4:16] has made it ubiquitous. And now you have
[4:18] AI agents doing the coding which means
[4:21] you can go from idea to application or
[4:25] software competitor within a matter of
[4:27] minutes. And I think people have faded
[4:30] the whole software situation. I think a
[4:32] lot of people tried to pick the bottom
[4:34] of it. They haven't uh embraced the
[4:36] viewpoint that I'll continue to say over
[4:38] and over again, which is artificial
[4:41] intelligence is disrupting every single
[4:44] part of any business that comes
[4:48] that's built on code. There's just no
[4:49] way around it. You're just making it
[4:51] cheaper to do. Um all companies that are
[4:53] built on code have human beings and
[4:56] startup businesses can create
[4:57] competitive businesses. And are they as
[4:59] good as Salesforce? No. But that's
[5:02] acting like Salesforce.com.
[5:04] the products they make are perfect.
[5:05] They're not. Um I think what Anthropic
[5:08] has done with the AI agents is make it
[5:10] more challenging when you get to
[5:11] Palunteer,
[5:13] which is not a SAS company, but is
[5:15] something that absolutely I do not
[5:17] believe will be disrupted by AI in the
[5:20] way that the market is judging, but I
[5:22] admit I'm not going to try to sit here
[5:25] and say that it's not valid for it to
[5:27] move the multiple down because maybe 5
[5:29] years from now there isn't a valid
[5:30] business for Palunteer. And what's
[5:32] happening is it's looking forward and
[5:34] it's saying your multiples are not
[5:35] there. You are up for disruption and so
[5:38] everything built on software is getting
[5:39] repriced. That has implications for the
[5:41] way people are positioned across the
[5:42] globe. Now one of the things that people
[5:45] have been very excited about is the
[5:47] democratization and access to superhuman
[5:50] intelligence. So when chat GPT comes out
[5:53] etc. And most of those people go and
[5:54] they use it in a very kind of um you
[5:57] know Google replacement type manner. uh
[6:00] Andre Carpathy uh recently came out with
[6:03] this tweet and he basically said there's
[6:04] like two different groups of people
[6:05] using AI right now. There are the people
[6:07] who tried it you know a year or two ago
[6:09] as that Google replacement they saw
[6:12] hallucinations they saw some uh you know
[6:14] some value but they said okay this is
[6:16] just kind of like a better version but I
[6:17] still don't know if I trust it. Then
[6:19] there is on the other extreme people who
[6:21] are uh basically AI uh hypnosis right I
[6:25] think is what he called and these people
[6:26] are using it every day they're using
[6:28] agentic uh technology they're deep into
[6:31] uh the command line interfaces and
[6:32] they're just like all in his point I
[6:35] think was like the truth is somewhere in
[6:36] between on these two how do you compare
[6:39] a group that is saying hey look I use
[6:41] chat GBT every once in a while to get
[6:43] answers but I don't understand why this
[6:45] is such a big deal and then the group of
[6:46] people who thinks that like AI is going
[6:48] to replace every human and people are
[6:49] just going to live in some, you know,
[6:51] utopian world where nobody has to work.
[6:54] >> Yeah. I don't I don't see it as black
[6:56] and white, but let's let's take what he
[6:58] said because I do agree that the
[6:59] majority of people that I meet are in
[7:02] the first camp. I I think they still use
[7:04] it as a chatbot or a search engine and
[7:07] that's it. Um,
[7:09] I've traveled, you know, a decent amount
[7:11] to or at least done a a lot of
[7:13] institutional
[7:15] Zooms and and I'll just tell you the
[7:17] biggest surprise for me and it shouldn't
[7:20] be, but we're so far further ahead in
[7:23] progress from where we were in October.
[7:26] People haven't done anything with agents
[7:28] yet. It's actually kind of scary to me
[7:30] since it's so easy to use. I know you
[7:32] and I talk about it and we're amazed at
[7:34] what we're able to do, but it's just
[7:36] gotten too easy to use. Um, whenever I
[7:39] hear anyone try to defend Microsoft and
[7:41] I just show them something that I've I
[7:43] I've done in that day, every single day
[7:46] I build something. Uh, I sent you
[7:48] something this morning on Bitcoin. I
[7:51] used all five LLMs, the first one to do
[7:54] the the information and then the other
[7:57] four to check the information and make
[7:59] sure it's fine. But they're all using AI
[8:01] agents to go through this stuff. So I
[8:04] think where um Andre Carpathy maybe is
[8:07] uh a little bit useless for this
[8:10] conversation is he's so far to the
[8:13] extreme right in terms of of of an
[8:15] engineer and understanding this stuff
[8:17] that the middle ground is really any
[8:19] single person can be using it to create
[8:21] things. The question is do you have the
[8:23] curiosity of hey I don't want to waste
[8:26] my time with this mindless crap. I have
[8:29] really interesting things to do. And I
[8:32] don't think the majority of people think
[8:33] that way. I think they've been trained
[8:35] in the software and search world to have
[8:36] it at your fingertips. It's kind of a
[8:38] mindless journey to just put something
[8:40] into a chatbot and ask for an answer. It
[8:42] actually takes curiosity. It takes a
[8:45] little bit of entrepreneurship to
[8:47] actually use the agentic side. So I
[8:49] think it's more a reflection of um a
[8:51] bigger bigger problem inside the country
[8:53] which is will people ever use it in that
[8:55] manner based on the way the education
[8:57] system the way that Google search
[8:59] trained people and the way that um
[9:01] honestly software just got people to
[9:03] work to press a button and to think that
[9:05] they'd have to build something
[9:06] themselves is just not something they're
[9:08] interested in doing.
[9:10] >> Now this whole idea of democratizing
[9:11] access I think people are like hey if I
[9:13] got 20 bucks a month I can go and I can
[9:15] use some of these tools. But now we're
[9:17] starting to see uh a great separation,
[9:19] right? And that separation is mythos uh
[9:21] from anthropic is not actually being
[9:24] given to the public. We're giving it to
[9:26] some cyber security experts. It sounds
[9:28] like maybe JP Morgan has access to it as
[9:30] well. I I read a report on and so it's
[9:33] they're picking and choosing who has
[9:34] access to this like synthetic superhuman
[9:37] intelligence. Does this just become a
[9:40] game of like whoever gets access they
[9:41] pull away from their competitors or are
[9:44] there concerns? How do you just read
[9:45] into we're now starting to pick and
[9:48] choose who has the technology versus
[9:50] just open it up to anyone who's got
[9:52] money?
[9:54] >> Well, you and I briefly talked about
[9:55] this last week. I wrote a paper about it
[9:58] last week. I I don't think people um I
[10:01] don't think the majority of people are
[10:03] up on the news and I don't think they
[10:04] fully grasp the importance of this
[10:07] particular model. And just so it's
[10:09] clear, um, OpenAI says they have a model
[10:12] coming out which is the same if not
[10:15] better. The main point is the models
[10:17] have reached a point that a bunch of
[10:20] things have entered
[10:22] I guess the world that people need to
[10:24] hear about and this is going to be a
[10:25] bigger story and this is really why the
[10:27] software names got hit so hard this
[10:29] week. So if people didn't know why
[10:31] Salesforce and Palanteer and Adobe and
[10:33] all these names add another leg lower
[10:34] along with the cyber names. The reason
[10:37] is because this model is so good that
[10:40] basically nothing can stop it from
[10:42] hacking. So the reason they brought it
[10:44] to cyber firms, they created a uh a
[10:47] group glass wing to basically give it to
[10:50] all of these groups to say hey let's
[10:52] look at it and figure out how we can
[10:54] stop this from being an issue. So, this
[10:56] is kind of the stage before the d really
[10:59] dangerous stage of true AGI and true
[11:01] ASI. Um, we're at that point where we've
[11:04] talked about when would we get there,
[11:07] we're there. Um, and it's a little
[11:09] dystopian to to to see what's going on.
[11:12] And if you don't believe that the
[11:13] company really has done this, and this
[11:15] is kind of a marketing thing, uh, Scott
[11:18] Bessant uh had a meeting with the banks.
[11:20] I mean he called an urgent meeting with
[11:22] the leaders of the banks because of the
[11:24] hacking risk associated with this. Now I
[11:26] talked about this over the course of the
[11:28] last month when the open claw situation
[11:31] had reached that we were going to have
[11:32] agent swarms and that hacking were going
[11:33] to be a major story and before the end
[11:35] of this year I still believe that we're
[11:37] going to have a situation where
[11:39] cryptography ironically enough is going
[11:41] to be the place that people have to go
[11:43] to to try and defend against this. The
[11:45] reason Palanteer was hit is because
[11:47] basically they're saying, well,
[11:48] Anthropic is the only one that can
[11:50] defend against Anthropic at this point
[11:51] and you need to use Anthropic for your
[11:53] cyber side to go through it. So, you've
[11:55] entered this very strange world, but
[11:57] there's another angle to it which you
[12:00] you kind of brought up, but I just want
[12:01] to make sure people realize the pricing
[12:04] of this will be enormous. Um, people
[12:07] have to realize that on the $20 um, you
[12:11] know, amount, they're not making any
[12:13] money. I mean, the competition for the
[12:16] LLMs is so extreme and the usage is high
[12:19] enough that they're not making any money
[12:21] on this. They have revenues coming in
[12:23] the door, but they're not making any
[12:25] money. So, whenever we see the revenue
[12:26] run rate, what is left out is the
[12:29] margins and the cost, which again, even
[12:31] though Anthropic is seeing their
[12:32] revenues go up, their costs have gone up
[12:34] as as well. And so, if they can't
[12:36] control their margins and they can't
[12:37] control their cost and it gets
[12:39] commoditized and the competition keeps
[12:40] coming, they have an issue. This model
[12:43] and agents in general are using so much
[12:45] compute that the reason the
[12:47] semiconductors are going parabolic, the
[12:49] reason that Jensen Yuang on Lex Friedman
[12:51] talked explicitly about how much compute
[12:54] is needed for this because of the
[12:56] inference explosion.
[12:58] This is a very dangerous situation. I
[13:00] don't think we have enough compute. The
[13:02] only places that are going to have this
[13:03] model are the people are the enterprises
[13:06] that can pay for it. The real question
[13:07] to me is what's going to happen to
[13:09] people like you and I that are using the
[13:11] $200 variety. I've already seen limits
[13:14] hit. I've seen it happen on Perplexity
[13:16] and I've seen it happen on uh on
[13:19] Anthropic and Claude and Claude's gone
[13:22] down as well. So, I think we're running
[13:24] into a problem where the demand numbers
[13:26] because basically people are no longer
[13:30] using it, digital employees are using it
[13:33] and their needs are insatiable. And so
[13:35] this is a this has got major issues
[13:37] associated with it. And just so people
[13:39] realize these companies can't slow down
[13:41] on providing it because they're worried
[13:43] they'll be leapfrog. So Claude is trying
[13:45] to or Anthropic is trying to find a
[13:47] solution for this. So they had to make a
[13:48] deal with Google to get access to their
[13:51] TPUs because remember Dario Modi talked
[13:54] about not overinvesting in compute and
[13:57] with all the data center delays we don't
[13:59] have enough compute. So, we're at that
[14:01] stand that kind of point in time where
[14:04] people have to worry not about there
[14:06] being a bubble, but us not able to
[14:08] provide what we need to and prices going
[14:10] higher, which gets back to the
[14:11] inflationary component.
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[15:07] >> Your number one job is to educate
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[15:17] This part I think is very important. So
[15:19] for people who are unaware, Anthropic
[15:21] added supposedly 11 billion in
[15:24] annualized revenue just in the month of
[15:27] March. So they went from 19 billion in
[15:28] annualized revenue to 30 which is almost
[15:30] an unfathomable number for such a young
[15:33] company in the private market etc. But
[15:36] maybe more interestingly is I think it
[15:38] is pretty well accepted in the market
[15:40] that Nvidia's GPU chips are superior to
[15:43] Google's TPU chips. But people are going
[15:46] now to Google and saying I'll strike a
[15:48] deal with you on the inferior
[15:49] technology. And again, they're still
[15:51] great, but they're inferior to Nvidia.
[15:53] I'll strike a deal because I literally
[15:55] do not have another option. You are the
[15:57] best available. And so when you think
[16:00] about that, is that like a okay investor
[16:02] should go look at Google? Broadcom was
[16:04] involved in that deal. Hey, let's go
[16:05] look at Broadcom. Is that there's other
[16:07] ramifications? We've seen uh Roundill
[16:10] came out with a memory ETF that they're
[16:12] trying to play on the shortage of
[16:14] memory. Like just talk through maybe a
[16:15] little bit as to how you're thinking
[16:17] about in the market where opportunity
[16:18] could lie for investors.
[16:21] >> So this gets back to the the point of um
[16:25] so I've done five thematic pieces since
[16:28] November all around inference.
[16:30] uh they've ranged from advanced
[16:32] packaging and semiconductors which I
[16:34] wrote after Nvidia did the deal with
[16:35] Grock with the realization that GPUs
[16:39] were not going to be able to do
[16:40] everything. You've seen Intel go up
[16:42] dramatically. You've seen uh a variety
[16:44] of semiconductor. I mean there's so many
[16:46] I've mentioned on this podcast.
[16:48] Pterodine uh has gone from about 110 to
[16:51] to 300 and change. I did one on optical
[16:53] fibers around Corning. Those names are
[16:56] up violently. You've seen deals with
[16:58] Coherent and Light uh from Nvidia.
[17:02] Nvidia did a deal with Marll, which is a
[17:04] company that I've talked about in at 22V
[17:07] in terms of uh and it's recently gone up
[17:09] 30% in less than 2 weeks. The compute
[17:12] side is right now where we are. We don't
[17:15] have enough compute. The optical fiber
[17:18] side, the reason we need that is because
[17:19] the amount of traffic necessary for this
[17:22] is coming from east to west. It's not
[17:24] about the training side. So we're at a
[17:27] very um unique position. Uh there was an
[17:31] overinvestment in memory only 3 years
[17:33] ago. So there's been an underinvestment
[17:36] and this is the thing people have to
[17:37] realize supply and demand. You
[17:40] highlighted the demand side the revenue
[17:43] numbers which are parabolic for
[17:45] anthropic are around AI demand token
[17:48] demand. For us to satisfy that if you
[17:50] think about it like food or anything
[17:52] else we don't have it. And so that is a
[17:55] sign that we're joining to take
[17:57] anything. Uh if you go through and I
[17:59] know you've had Warren Pis on I think
[18:01] you've had Warren Pis on before. Um okay
[18:03] so he um does a great job of showing the
[18:06] rental rates and everything happening
[18:08] with GPU. There's none available. Meta
[18:10] did a deal with Coree. Um all of this
[18:13] stuff is happening and I think people
[18:15] from an investor standpoint have made a
[18:17] mistake of trying to fade the
[18:20] semiconductor move because they've heard
[18:21] about this bubble talk. everything that
[18:23] was a bubble talk six months ago. We're
[18:25] talking about the opposite. Anthropic is
[18:28] getting their run rate going to where,
[18:31] like you said, it wasn't that long ago
[18:33] they were on a run rate of nine. Now
[18:35] they're on a run rate of 30. And this is
[18:37] all because of what we talked about.
[18:38] Opus 4.5 came and all of a sudden the
[18:41] Agentic world opened up. We are in the
[18:43] very first inning. I don't even think
[18:45] there's one out yet in the Aentic world.
[18:47] It just started. And so for people that
[18:49] are looking for investments, you can't
[18:52] be wrong in looking for this. I will say
[18:54] Nvidia itself is still an important
[18:57] player in this whole thing and their
[18:58] stock is way too cheap relative to the
[19:02] demand numbers that are happening. So
[19:04] it's very hard for the market as a whole
[19:06] to go down even with oil and a war going
[19:09] on because the earnings are growing so
[19:11] fast for all of these companies on the
[19:13] receiver end of the capex. So the capex
[19:16] numbers just keep going. the receivers
[19:19] continue to see their earnings go up and
[19:21] I think that's the world we're in is
[19:23] multiple compression and S&P 500 that
[19:25] goes through the rotation but you want
[19:27] to focus on the hardware and the
[19:29] semiconductor names and anything Dell
[19:32] HPE Corning all of those names they're
[19:35] all related to the same thing there's an
[19:36] underinvestment to massive demand
[19:39] >> when we look through these different
[19:41] companies that you're talking about you
[19:42] have been very right I think to start
[19:44] the year now and it goes back to this
[19:46] idea of software and AI are very uh kind
[19:48] of separate although people are
[19:50] confusing them together. How do you
[19:52] think about large caps versus small cap
[19:55] companies? I think a lot of folks are
[19:56] used to small caps have explosive
[19:58] opportunities but they also have a lot
[20:00] of downside. You're kind of getting paid
[20:02] for the risk that you're taking in a
[20:03] small cap or medium cap stock. Some of
[20:05] the companies that you're talking about
[20:07] are large cap companies. These are not
[20:08] small businesses and they're growing at
[20:11] very fast rates. And so, are we headed
[20:13] to a world where large companies like
[20:16] we've seen Oracle or or Meta, etc.,
[20:18] report some pretty crazy year-over-year
[20:20] growth numbers? Is that the new normal
[20:22] where people can kind of get what they
[20:23] used to get in small caps, but now they
[20:25] can get it from these much more mature
[20:26] businesses, and that's going to kind of
[20:28] become the standard environment?
[20:31] >> Well, the the large cap stocks have not
[20:33] done well this year. This has been a
[20:34] small cap market. So, with the S&P
[20:36] unchanged for the year, the Russell 2000
[20:38] is still up. Um, I've talked about my
[20:40] belief that public companies are are
[20:42] just not going to produce returns over
[20:44] the next 10 years. And I'm going to
[20:46] re-emphasize that point. Um, GDP is
[20:49] going to go higher. The spending is
[20:51] going to happen. There's a lot of
[20:52] companies that are either not public or
[20:54] part of the Russell 2000 or are in
[20:57] countries like Brazil, which I'm
[20:58] positive of, which made new highs for
[21:00] the year uh yesterday. I I just you know
[21:03] chemical stocks are not large cap uh you
[21:06] know aside from Dow and DuPont but when
[21:08] you go through most of the chemical
[21:09] names on my chemical list they're small
[21:10] cap a lot of the names I mentioned for
[21:12] the optical fiber side not Corning small
[21:15] cap uh modin which is a thermal name the
[21:19] thermal cooling side this is all about
[21:21] more heat this is all about more
[21:22] components this is all about more nuts
[21:24] and bolts there's a lot of small cap
[21:26] companies uh energy as a sector is
[21:29] smaller is half the market cap of
[21:31] Nvidia. I mean, there's plenty of places
[21:33] for people to go. I actually um don't
[21:36] like the large cap as a general theme
[21:38] unless they're related to hardware. The
[21:39] hyperscalers have not done well this
[21:41] year. Do I think their earnings are are
[21:43] fine? Yeah, but their free cash flows
[21:46] turned negative and so they're betting
[21:48] making a big bet on the future and what
[21:50] is happening to all companies that have
[21:52] a code side or a competitive side from a
[21:55] margin compression. Are you going to
[21:57] have pricing power? And that's the issue
[21:59] that keeps coming through. And right now
[22:00] these companies are making money, but
[22:03] they've got an accounting benefit that
[22:04] came from the one big beautiful bill on
[22:06] this capex side. Their free cash flow is
[22:09] going negative. They've got competitors
[22:11] with Enthropic and OpenAI which are not
[22:13] public companies at this point. SpaceX
[22:15] is coming to the market. I I would not
[22:17] be focused on the large cap companies
[22:19] are thinking that they're going to own
[22:20] this. I've been going a different
[22:22] direction. Uh I believe this is an
[22:24] entrepreneur side. I believe this is a a
[22:26] startup business and I think the private
[22:28] part of the market ironically enough not
[22:31] big private companies but very small
[22:33] tiny private companies are going to have
[22:35] a major advantage here just because of
[22:37] how nimble they are and because they
[22:38] don't have something to lose and
[22:39] probably most importantly human beings
[22:42] are the major cost of the S&P 500. um if
[22:45] the agentic side is speeding up right
[22:47] now and a lot of what I'm going to show
[22:48] this weekend is from people now saying
[22:50] with this new model this new model is
[22:53] very very very bad for labor um all
[22:56] knowledge workers are at risk if you
[22:58] have a model that is autonomous and can
[23:00] break into anything that means they can
[23:02] replicate and self-learn on their own
[23:04] that is the danger now that we've sped
[23:06] up so quickly that you're going to see
[23:07] an impact to the knowledge workers far
[23:09] more than we've seen already
[23:11] >> let's talk about the economic data that
[23:13] came out this morning you mentioned
[23:14] mentioned a little bit earlier, the
[23:15] inflation number is obviously rising. Uh
[23:18] the PCE number I think gives people a
[23:20] little bit more confidence, but still uh
[23:22] a little concerning. You keep talking
[23:24] about headline CPI going above 5%. Let's
[23:27] put aside for a second uh the headline
[23:29] number is going to go higher. What do
[23:32] you think actual inflation is? And the
[23:34] reason I asked that is like true
[23:35] inflation is showing that it has nearly
[23:37] doubled since the start of the Iran war.
[23:39] So true inflation and CPI are both going
[23:41] higher. But true inflation is showing
[23:43] something that is less than 2%. Call it
[23:44] 1.7 1.8%. And what it begs the question
[23:48] of is this tension between short-term
[23:51] oil short-term inflation type pressures
[23:53] that could become long-term, but right
[23:54] now they're only short-term versus this
[23:56] long-term deflationary component. You
[23:59] mentioned that you think stocks are not
[24:00] going to appreciate a lot over the next
[24:02] decade. And so, how are you thinking
[24:04] about just inflation in general?
[24:08] what wins out, the short-term inflation
[24:10] pressure or the long-term deflationary
[24:11] pressure?
[24:14] >> So, again, I I I'll say it again. Nobody
[24:16] watching this cares at all about true
[24:20] inflation.
[24:21] Um should there's not uh no, they
[24:24] shouldn't. Um inflation is a feel. It's
[24:27] not a number. Um it's impossible for
[24:29] them to tr truly calculate inflation.
[24:32] So, we've had a difference between
[24:33] inflation for a long time. Um headline
[24:36] inflation. So core inflation is only
[24:39] 2.3%.
[24:41] Headline inflation is now 3.3
[24:44] and it will be above five just based on
[24:46] what's going to happen with food prices
[24:48] and what's going to happen with gas.
[24:50] Affordability is a major issue. So the
[24:52] reason I say nobody cares about true
[24:53] inflation. I don't see anyone going this
[24:55] is fantastic. Inflation is low again.
[24:58] Wages are falling and the job market is
[25:00] not strong. So wages are down below 4%
[25:03] on almost every measure. uh they're
[25:06] probably going to be sticky around these
[25:08] levels, but if inflation does go above
[25:10] 5%, you're going to have negative wages.
[25:14] Now, again, back the last time we had
[25:16] inflation, that was yolo time. This is a
[25:19] very different time. People spent the
[25:21] money during the first wave of inflation
[25:23] and had a party. They didn't save the
[25:25] money that was handed out. And so what
[25:27] we have now is a situation where
[25:29] affordability is already an issue and
[25:32] gas and food prices are going higher,
[25:34] plastic prices are going higher. Um
[25:36] diesel prices are up faster than any
[25:39] point over the course of the last 25
[25:40] years. You're going to that means every
[25:43] truck has things, jet fuel, the airline
[25:46] prices are going to go higher. And this
[25:47] is not a question of will it. It will.
[25:50] So all of that stuff is eventually going
[25:52] to feed through. And that means people
[25:53] at home are going to feel this. Now, we
[25:56] haven't had this situation. 3-month
[25:58] rates are now at um 3.66%,
[26:01] 3.65 when when we got on here, and we're
[26:04] going to have headline inflation above
[26:05] it. Um you know, I I'm I'm very focused
[26:08] on a lot of things, but this negative
[26:11] yield and the fact that wages are going
[26:13] to be this is going to have huge
[26:15] implications for the midterms. Um
[26:18] inflation will be a major major part of
[26:20] the midterm elections. Uh bless you. So
[26:23] don't you know I I I think this this
[26:25] situation of hey core is really low. The
[26:28] Fed doesn't have to raise rates. Okay.
[26:31] But the people at home are going to be
[26:33] feeling the pressure because jobs are
[26:34] not safe. And at the same time we've got
[26:37] an affordability issue that isn't going
[26:38] to get better with this. One of the
[26:40] aspects uh I do not have a strong
[26:42] opinion on how this plays out but I
[26:43] think is very interesting is in more
[26:46] than 50% of the major metros we are now
[26:49] seeing prices come down on homes and
[26:53] I think that it goes back to like two
[26:55] things can be true. Homes are expensive
[26:56] yet they are not continuing to
[26:58] accelerate at this rapid rate. Now, that
[27:00] could change, but I think what you're
[27:02] talking about from like how people feel,
[27:04] it actually isn't so much about the
[27:05] year-over-year rate of change as much as
[27:07] it's just like I remember 5 years ago
[27:09] this was way less expensive and it is
[27:11] just through the roof in comparison. And
[27:14] so, regardless of the year-over-year
[27:15] rate of change, I just feel like
[27:17] everything is expensive. And I think you
[27:19] are right that like that doesn't go away
[27:21] if prices come down 1 or 2%. Right. That
[27:24] that just feels like everything is
[27:26] expensive. Even if it was 5% cheaper, it
[27:28] is still expensive.
[27:30] >> Yeah. And that and that's that's the
[27:32] issue for people. If you've heard the
[27:33] term core inflation, you were wondering
[27:35] the difference. Um core inflation is
[27:38] supposed to strip out the variable side
[27:40] of commodities. That's why it was put
[27:43] together so that we could deal with, you
[27:46] know, what was happening in the 1970s.
[27:48] It doesn't change the issue. What we
[27:51] know for a fact is when people who are
[27:53] driving gas cars go to the gas station,
[27:56] it is significantly more to fill it up.
[27:58] Now, is it more than it was during 2022?
[28:01] No, it's it's the same. But again, the
[28:03] way people live paycheck to paycheck in
[28:05] the country, any type of increase,
[28:08] especially on something like
[28:10] electricity, like gasoline,
[28:13] phones, uh I I I mean, I hate to to say
[28:16] it, um if there's scarcity and
[28:19] underinvestment, and that's the
[28:20] commodity world, AI is very inflationary
[28:23] for things related to the physical
[28:25] underinvested world. And that means the
[28:28] phone, it means all of this stuff is
[28:30] going to go up in price. At the same
[28:32] time, we do have labor shortages in
[28:34] things like daycare, uh, teachers,
[28:38] nurses, uh, we're not we we just don't
[28:41] have a situation where all of a sudden
[28:43] daycare prices are going to come down.
[28:45] And we've heard from people, and I hear
[28:46] it from people uh, in in Brooklyn when
[28:49] I'm talking to people, it's daycare
[28:51] expense is a very big expense for
[28:53] people. Uh, they mention it as like kind
[28:55] of the number one thing. They don't know
[28:56] what to do. They're kind of trapped. And
[28:58] so when you mentioned housing prices are
[29:00] coming down, the ironic thing of that is
[29:03] that's not what rents are doing in
[29:05] apartment buildings in the cities in New
[29:07] York. Maybe it's happening in certain
[29:08] parts of the country and maybe more
[29:09] supply is coming on, but for people that
[29:12] are trapped in their apartments or
[29:13] trapped in where they are, I I just
[29:16] don't see how house prices coming down
[29:18] by 30 basis points or 1% changes their
[29:20] life unless they get up and move. And
[29:22] you know what? If you got to get up and
[29:24] move, you're paying for the moving costs
[29:25] and all these other things. It's just
[29:27] not like you're saving any money.
[29:29] >> Let's talk about Bitcoin. Uh you sent me
[29:31] this great chart that basically shows uh
[29:33] Fed funds rate rising, Fed fund rate
[29:36] falling or or holding and then the
[29:38] positive real versus negative real um uh
[29:41] return here. What is this showing us?
[29:43] What is your takeaway from this? I I see
[29:45] plus 247% which obviously people get
[29:48] excited about.
[29:50] >> So there's really two things. Um let's
[29:52] go back to the AI side. Uh,
[29:55] I have said repeatedly I think Bitcoin
[29:57] is the only quote unquote thing built on
[30:00] code that is safe from the destruction
[30:02] of AI because it has no competitor.
[30:04] Meaning it's not a business. It doesn't
[30:07] have fundamentals. There's no way to
[30:09] disrupt it. Okay,
[30:12] we're at that agentic side. So the
[30:14] network effects are going to kick in. I
[30:16] want to watch Ethereum as the major kind
[30:18] of signal. And for people watching, I'm
[30:21] giving you not only a bullish sign, but
[30:22] I'm giving you a timing sign. The
[30:24] catalyst is now. Um, and that I'll get
[30:27] to that point, but I want to make sure I
[30:28] give you the structural issue on on what
[30:30] I think is happening. We showed and
[30:32] talked about and everyone saw the chart
[30:34] of how Bitcoin was very correlated to
[30:35] software, which it should be. It at the
[30:38] end of the day is built on code. It's a
[30:40] growth asset. It's something that people
[30:42] think in the future will be worth a lot
[30:44] more money. It obviously has a scarcity
[30:46] side, which let's leave that alone for a
[30:48] second. uh but it is software so it was
[30:50] correlated. Well, this week will be the
[30:53] biggest week of Bitcoin over software.
[30:57] We have finally broken the correlation.
[30:59] Uh and this started last week, but the
[31:02] correlation between software and Bitcoin
[31:04] has broken now. So when we were seeing
[31:07] software puke during the first two
[31:09] months of the year, Bitcoin was going
[31:11] down with it. That's not happening.
[31:13] Bitcoin is starting to trade a little
[31:14] bit more now like a risk asset, meaning
[31:17] it followed the S&P. Software did not
[31:19] follow the S&P. The credit situation,
[31:22] the private credit names, uh, equities
[31:24] have not bounced at all, and you're
[31:26] still getting redemptions there. So,
[31:28] what I put together was just for people
[31:30] to see, and I'll show this on the video,
[31:32] uh, if you break Bitcoin into those four
[31:35] sides. So, you start with threemon real
[31:37] yields. So, 3-month rates are 366.
[31:41] Headline inflation is now 330. So we've
[31:43] taken it down to about 40 basis points.
[31:46] Meaning we have rates 40 basis points
[31:49] above
[31:51] the majority of the returns. Not the
[31:54] majority over 100% of all of the Bitcoin
[31:56] returns since its launch in 2010. But
[31:59] also, if you break it down by 5-year
[32:01] increments, in every 5-year increment,
[32:04] the best time to invest in Bitcoin where
[32:06] you get over 100% of the returns is when
[32:09] the Fed is either on hold or cutting
[32:13] combined with negative real yields. Now,
[32:16] remember the first part of 2010 to 2019,
[32:19] we had QE going on. we had fairly, you
[32:23] know, moderate inflation, but if you
[32:24] have zero yields or three-month bills
[32:26] around zero yields, you're obviously
[32:28] going to get huge returns. So, that's
[32:30] what this is about. But I also said this
[32:33] is from 2019 to 25. This is from 15 to
[32:36] 19 and this is from 10 to 15. It doesn't
[32:39] really matter. It's all the same. uh
[32:42] this is the point that you want to be
[32:44] looking at it because when we get to the
[32:45] next CPI number I think what's rolling
[32:48] off is a 0.1 meaning last year the
[32:51] monthtomonth was about 0.1 we'll be
[32:53] replacing that again with something
[32:55] close to one which means headline CPI
[32:58] will be above
[33:00] uh the 3-month rate as of next month so
[33:03] there's your catalyst we'll be entering
[33:04] the regime if you want to call it of the
[33:06] Fed on hold or easing with inflation up
[33:09] above yields so negative real deals. But
[33:11] one more thing on the technical side,
[33:14] the weekly uh MACD
[33:17] is crossing this week. So when you put
[33:19] it all together, um I've started again.
[33:22] I've I tried to buy when we were up
[33:24] close to 100. I was buying some above
[33:26] 100. Uh I am reducing a little bit of
[33:28] some of my memory names and I'm in
[33:30] taking that money, moving it in. But I'm
[33:32] also moving money out of money markets
[33:33] now, moving it into Bitcoin because I
[33:36] think we've hit a point where uh you're
[33:38] going to start to see a break in
[33:39] correlation and I think people are going
[33:40] to start to focus on it as a scarcity
[33:42] asset. And just one more thing, one of
[33:45] the conversations that is starting to
[33:47] build rapidly. Uh and I'm not going to
[33:50] go through all of the details, but maybe
[33:51] you and I can get Marco Papage on uh
[33:54] soon to talk about something he
[33:55] mentioned on a podcast he did. But you
[33:58] have to start to think about the US
[34:00] position with the dollar. Um obviously
[34:03] this war did not work out the way that I
[34:05] think the administration thought.
[34:08] Whatever is happening with the straight
[34:09] of hormuz one thing is certain the rest
[34:11] of the world did not come to the US side
[34:14] in this uh and in particular now what's
[34:16] going on in Taiwan
[34:19] uh with elections over there and who's
[34:21] starting to visit China. There's a
[34:24] growing fear that maybe the US dollar
[34:26] will be under pressure more as the end
[34:29] result of this with higher inflation,
[34:32] higher energy prices to go an unstable
[34:34] situation in the Middle East, this
[34:36] taxation thing which is you know the
[34:39] Iran is seems to be uh as part of their
[34:41] program is taxing people using the
[34:44] strait. This is a very weird situation
[34:46] but I think in the end uh you're going
[34:48] to have it. And one final point,
[34:51] I'm concerned about inflation happening
[34:53] in emerging markets at a much bigger
[34:55] rate than happens in the US. And if
[34:57] that's happening, I think you're going
[34:59] to have some countries of the world in
[35:00] particular that are going to be looking
[35:02] for ways to hedge against inflation.
[35:04] Remember, at the end of the day, if
[35:06] inflation is going higher in certain
[35:08] parts of the world and we have an
[35:09] unstable environment, I think the
[35:11] attractiveness in Bitcoin from
[35:13] devaluations in certain countries uh is
[35:15] going to grow as the thing. I think
[35:17] you're going to have more and more
[35:18] people talking about Bitcoin over the
[35:19] course of the next 3 to 6 months.
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[37:43] check them out today. I do think that a
[37:46] lot of people get confused when it's
[37:47] like Bitcoin can go up because of
[37:49] inflation. Bitcoin can also be valuable
[37:51] if there's deflation from AI. And one of
[37:53] the things that's helped me is
[37:54] understanding like there's different
[37:55] people who buy Bitcoin for different
[37:57] reasons. Some investors are very focused
[38:00] on global liquidity. other investors are
[38:02] very focused on digital disruption and
[38:04] two things can be true at the same time.
[38:06] Can you elaborate a little bit on how
[38:08] you think about those different groups
[38:09] and why it seems like Bitcoin can win in
[38:13] two different environments?
[38:15] >> Well, the common thread between them,
[38:16] and I say this all the time, the one
[38:18] thing I know with all human beings on
[38:20] the planet, no matter where they live,
[38:22] which is the same, they all have um some
[38:25] form of greed. Uh I think in the face of
[38:29] people hiding their money or protecting
[38:32] against devaluation that may not sound
[38:34] like greed to people but it is if you
[38:38] can put your money in something that's
[38:39] keeping its value then everything else
[38:41] is going down in value. So it's a
[38:43] reverse side of greed but I think more
[38:45] and more people have to think about
[38:46] devaluing currencies
[38:49] in a world where okay we need that. On
[38:51] the flip side, I think in the US in
[38:53] particular and really around the globe,
[38:56] the acceptance of Bitcoin, and I asked
[38:57] you about this, you know, a few episodes
[38:59] ago, just to talk about the difference,
[39:01] the way people perceive Bitcoin from the
[39:03] institutional side today from where it
[39:05] was 3 years ago or even six years ago
[39:07] when you would get thrown out of offices
[39:09] immediately when you walked in to talk
[39:10] about it. Well, just like Bitcoin has
[39:13] matured, so is Anthony Pompiano. He's
[39:15] older. He's more mature. He's more
[39:16] involved in the business world. He's got
[39:18] a tie on every day.
[39:20] There's no hoodies. There's no anything.
[39:21] So, you've actually uh gone with Bitcoin
[39:24] at the exact same time. I just think
[39:27] we're at a different stance. And when we
[39:28] get through it, the reason I have my
[39:30] stepfather with an allocation in it, and
[39:32] I've told him, I just don't think growth
[39:34] assets are where you want to be ever
[39:35] again because of AI.
[39:37] People still need to make returns,
[39:39] particularly if they're going to live
[39:40] longer from AI. And that gets back into
[39:42] the longevity side. And you need to
[39:44] produce returns over the course of the
[39:46] next decade. What'll happen is when
[39:49] Bitcoin does trade higher, and this is
[39:51] the thing people should go, I've
[39:52] believed this. I still believe it. We
[39:54] are now in a vacuum where there are
[39:56] almost no assets built on code that are
[39:58] going higher. Almost none. Not the
[40:00] hyperscalers, not the software names.
[40:03] The only names going higher are
[40:05] semiconductor names, which quote unquote
[40:06] are cyclical, meaning at some point
[40:08] we'll have enough compute. I don't think
[40:10] it's going to happen for a while, but at
[40:12] some point we will. At some point we'll
[40:13] come up with efficiency gains. at some
[40:15] point we'll come up with cures for
[40:17] everything related to energy and
[40:19] everything related to commodities. We'll
[40:20] have humanoids. The only thing that I
[40:23] can say with certainty is people are
[40:24] still going to need to in their mind
[40:26] make more money in the course of the
[40:28] next 5 years. And I think once Bitcoin
[40:29] trades higher this time, this is the
[40:32] move that to me is about AI disruption.
[40:34] It is the reverse of what's happening to
[40:36] software. So I always let the market
[40:38] tell me. I can sit here with you guys
[40:40] and say that I made X right and I made X
[40:42] wrong. So, I've been right on most of
[40:44] the commodity names, the power names,
[40:45] the semi-names, and now I've been wrong
[40:47] on Palunteer. I've been wrong on
[40:48] Bitcoin. I still think those two are
[40:50] going to do well. But when Bitcoin
[40:52] breaks away from software, you have to
[40:54] pay attention. That is the thing I've
[40:55] learned about is let the market tell me
[40:57] when something different is going on,
[40:59] the world is absolutely more unstable
[41:01] than it was February 27th. There is no
[41:04] question about that. We have less
[41:05] certainty. We're going to have energy
[41:07] hoarding around the globe. We need to
[41:09] figure out ways to solve the problem and
[41:10] not be dependent on the rest of the
[41:12] world. I just think Bitcoin right now
[41:14] you have to watch it and if we start to
[41:16] trade higher and I'll give everyone a
[41:18] level. If we trade above 76,000 and at
[41:20] the same time we see Ethereum above 2400
[41:24] I believe that is the beginning of a
[41:25] move that will be sustainable this year
[41:28] because I don't think we're going to
[41:29] have a recession. I think inflation is
[41:31] going to stay elevated and I think
[41:33] people are going to need to find
[41:34] something that is making money in a
[41:35] world where the S&P is not moving
[41:37] anywhere.
[41:38] >> Bitcoin's volatility used to be 80 90
[41:41] volt. uh a couple years ago it is now
[41:44] compressed to like 3540ish.
[41:47] Um Bitcoin drew down 50% instead of
[41:49] drawing down you know 85%. Uh I think
[41:52] there's some people who say well if
[41:53] volatility got cut in half and the bare
[41:55] market got cut in half then that kind of
[41:57] makes sense in terms of the draw down.
[41:59] What I'm maybe more interested in is
[42:01] usually those bare markets were 18
[42:04] months maybe you know 12 plus months. If
[42:06] you look at, you know, 2021, we peaked
[42:08] in November. 2022, November was the
[42:11] bottom of the capitulation. So, kind of
[42:13] a full 12 months. We are now about 6
[42:16] months from the peak of Bitcoin, give or
[42:19] take a couple of weeks. Should we think
[42:21] of these bare markets as also from a
[42:23] timeline being shorter as well? If you
[42:26] get compression of volatility, do
[42:28] timelines kind of accelerate?
[42:32] >> Yes and no. Um, again, I I I
[42:36] mean, I hate to bring this back to
[42:37] software, but when you have a chart that
[42:39] is a direct overlay for five years,
[42:42] meaning the movement in software was the
[42:44] same as the movement in Bitcoin, I
[42:48] I I think what we're going to have is
[42:51] rather than call them bare markets and
[42:53] just like get in this, I'm never been a
[42:55] big fan of this bare market bull market
[42:57] thing, especially when we're at all-time
[42:59] highs. like at some point in there it
[43:01] just seems like okay they go up and then
[43:04] the normal course is at some point uh
[43:06] people don't invest as much as they
[43:08] have. I do think people have given up on
[43:09] Bitcoin in terms of the people I listen
[43:11] to on most podcasts. It's very hard.
[43:13] People are just so frustrated to to go
[43:15] through. Um there's a psychological part
[43:18] that takes time. I do think when you're
[43:19] at a 30 or four V that is a big
[43:21] difference from 80 or 90. So you are
[43:24] talking about a world that time
[43:25] compresses as well. Uh, I think when
[43:27] things move, they're going to move
[43:28] faster than they've ever moved. That's
[43:30] what we've seen with software. When they
[43:32] fall, they don't fall a little bit, they
[43:34] fall 10 to 20%. I mean, it goes very,
[43:36] very quickly. And so, I think that is a
[43:39] trapdoor feeling. There's just I just
[43:41] don't think in a world of uncertainty
[43:43] around AI, people know what to do. And
[43:45] so, it doesn't take much. We're getting
[43:46] into earnings, which we haven't talked
[43:48] about. Those are going to start next
[43:49] week. When we start getting into the
[43:51] software companies, one of the most
[43:53] dangerous things is I think people are
[43:55] like, well, when we get into the
[43:56] earnings, then finally software will be
[43:58] done. When stocks don't go up on good
[44:01] news, which is what's happened with um
[44:04] the software names, cuz their earnings
[44:06] have been good. The question is when
[44:09] they show any signs of AI showing up in
[44:11] their numbers,
[44:13] that means they're going to get
[44:14] pummeled. if somehow or another they can
[44:18] actually go up on bad news then that
[44:20] would mean that we've hit kind of a you
[44:23] know a static point. I just don't think
[44:25] that's going to happen because I think
[44:27] people still you know and and again most
[44:30] people that have software in their ETFs
[44:32] they're out there saying this is an
[44:34] overreaction. I think there's too many
[44:37] people that are hoping that this is an
[44:38] overreaction. I don't think it is. The
[44:42] IRGC
[44:43] is reportedly, you know, the Iran, uh,
[44:46] reportedly asking to get paid a toll of
[44:50] $1 per barrel of oil. It goes through
[44:51] the straight and they want to get paid
[44:53] in Bitcoin according to the Financial
[44:54] Times. I do not know if that's true or
[44:56] not, but if it is true, what are the
[44:57] ramifications?
[45:00] Again, I think it's just another sign
[45:01] that in this world that we're going
[45:03] into, uh, the dollar is not being
[45:06] thought of in the same way that it was,
[45:08] and people don't want to be, uh,
[45:10] connected to the dollar. It doesn't have
[45:12] the same meaning that it did. You can't
[45:14] separate, okay, I'm going to make a
[45:16] speech and say NATO's done.
[45:19] You can't say that when Taiwan is
[45:22] dependent on the US protecting them
[45:24] against China and then you have a leader
[45:27] in Taiwan that's running and is going to
[45:30] visit China. Part of that reason is the
[45:33] fact that hey people of the world forget
[45:35] the politicians who are just doing
[45:37] things that is a representation of how
[45:39] the politics of the world are changing
[45:41] that people don't see the US the same
[45:44] way they did. And whether or not you
[45:46] know people watching this want to hear
[45:47] that that's just the reality of the way
[45:49] the masses are thinking and I think the
[45:51] Bitcoin sign shows two things. One it is
[45:54] a representation of the dollar. I think
[45:56] if the dollar is weakening which would
[45:58] absolutely be the case if inflation's at
[46:00] higher levels and you have most
[46:01] countries around the world raising rates
[46:03] and at the same time the dollar is is is
[46:05] falling. If the dollar is falling I
[46:07] think it's a representation of Bitcoin
[46:08] being accepted again as this neutral
[46:11] place rather than a reserve currency
[46:13] status. I just think it's being viewed
[46:15] as a neutral situation. In the same way,
[46:18] they also said they would take payment
[46:20] in yuan. So, it's not like they're
[46:23] exclusively saying Bitcoin. Again, I
[46:25] think it's just a representation of how
[46:26] do we not get trapped in this situation
[46:29] of the US can do whatever it wants and
[46:32] are we going to be thought of as a
[46:34] group? And I I I just think it's changed
[46:36] over the course of the last six weeks.
[46:39] Is there anything that you are looking
[46:41] at um that would change your mind in
[46:44] terms of your current view of the
[46:45] scarcity with AI, Bitcoin? Like is there
[46:48] a a data point, a development, uh
[46:51] government announcement, anything that
[46:53] you think would be the the trigger point
[46:54] where you would say, "Hey, you know, I I
[46:56] think I need to evolve here."
[46:58] >> Yep. 100%. Simplest thing I can possibly
[47:00] say. If I start running into people that
[47:04] are using AI every day, I'll start to
[47:06] change my view. I think the biggest
[47:09] problem is from a sentiment basis and
[47:10] the simplest thing I can say
[47:14] nobody who talks about artificial
[47:16] intelligence
[47:18] has an intelligent thing to say about it
[47:21] if they're not using it every day. To
[47:23] use it every day just I mean think about
[47:26] your situation. It changes so much on a
[47:28] daily basis. I'm blown away every day on
[47:31] something I'm able to do with it. And I
[47:34] say that with just honesty. I I don't
[47:37] think your kids, if you're watching, can
[47:39] possibly be prepared for the world
[47:40] without using it every single day. And
[47:43] the schools don't want them to use it
[47:45] still at this point. So, if you're not
[47:47] using it, if you're trapped at a company
[47:49] that doesn't allow you to use it, that's
[47:51] not an excuse. So, I think this is one
[47:53] of those unique situations where, as I
[47:55] say, I always give credit to my father
[47:57] for this. Investing is not a game of
[47:59] being right. It's about trying to find
[48:01] situations where the riskreward are
[48:03] positive in your favor and you believe
[48:05] you're going to make a lot of money
[48:06] relative to the risk. Well, the number
[48:09] one driver of the odds on that are how
[48:12] crowded the situation is on your
[48:14] viewpoint. And if people aren't using AI
[48:16] every day, they really I I mean they
[48:19] make sure that the odds are in the favor
[48:21] of people buying semiconductors, buying
[48:23] energy, buying all this stuff because
[48:24] remember it was only 6 months ago that
[48:26] people were absolutely publishing that
[48:28] this was a bubble and they would never
[48:30] ever ever be able to build this much. So
[48:33] I just don't think that this is going to
[48:35] be a situation where unless that changes
[48:38] the odds are going to remain in the
[48:39] favor. So, for everyone listening, just
[48:41] remember um Anthony asked a good
[48:43] question. The earnings are in your
[48:45] favor. All the stuff is in there. The
[48:47] thing that's not in your favor is that
[48:49] people don't use AI. So, I don't think
[48:51] they have any idea about what Mythos is
[48:54] at this point.
[48:55] >> And when you're talking about use AI,
[48:57] just before all the trolls in the
[48:58] comments, you're not talking about using
[48:59] it as a chatbot. You're talking about
[49:01] using it agentically, CLIs, and the
[49:04] actual like underlying technology, not
[49:06] the chat bots. Correct.
[49:08] building stuff, any anything that you
[49:10] want to build. Again, if you want to
[49:13] play fantasy football, I mean, we we'll
[49:15] get into a point somewhere in the
[49:16] summertime what I think people should be
[49:18] doing if this is something and I know a
[49:19] lot of people spend time on this. I
[49:21] don't at all anymore. Uh, but if I was
[49:23] going to basically be in a fantasy
[49:25] football league, I would already be out
[49:27] there doing all the work on all the
[49:28] analytics and connecting it using
[49:30] Perplexity computer, getting an API key
[49:32] for whatever data sources you have and
[49:34] connecting it to it and say, "Let's go
[49:36] through and figure out our draft for
[49:37] this year based on last year's data and
[49:39] then incorporate the new news that comes
[49:41] in just to show that you're building
[49:43] something in there." And when I use the
[49:44] when I say the the word nobody's using
[49:47] it out of a hundred people that I run
[49:49] into in conversations and again I'm in a
[49:52] very very um finite world for the most
[49:55] part in conversations I'm talking to
[49:57] institutional investors which for the
[49:59] most part went to the best schools in
[50:00] the country. They were for the most part
[50:03] the best students in the country. Uh
[50:06] they're not using Claude in the way that
[50:08] I would expect. So if I start to see
[50:10] that change and again there's been an
[50:12] uptick for sure but the uptick is about
[50:15] using it in some way which is they're
[50:17] making it more software like uh I think
[50:20] this is about building stuff and until
[50:21] people get there I just again I don't
[50:23] think enough people are using it to
[50:25] change the odds on the equation and
[50:26] that's why I say I think we're still in
[50:28] the first inning of the agent world.
[50:29] >> I know you've been uh cooking up a great
[50:32] video for Sunday. You you got too many
[50:34] unique insights this week. So, what
[50:36] what's the video on Sunday going to be
[50:37] about?
[50:39] >> Uh, a lot of it is going to be showing
[50:40] people um where the inflation data was
[50:44] before we got into the war and the
[50:45] likelihood that it's going to be higher,
[50:47] the changes that have happened since the
[50:49] war. I'm going to reiterate the physical
[50:52] upgrade, the the scarcity side, and go
[50:54] through. Uh, I'll show people again my
[50:57] model portfolio and a lot of the
[50:59] subscribers that have gone on have been
[51:01] great. Uh, I'm continuing to up things
[51:03] on there. My goal was two things. Help
[51:06] people feel empowered by their ability
[51:08] to move their money into investments
[51:10] that they can make money on for traders
[51:12] to be able to find positions uh in names
[51:14] that are going to go higher to make sure
[51:16] they focus their attention on
[51:17] commodities extensively and support the
[51:20] video on the weekend. And even though
[51:22] some of the people can't afford to the
[51:23] subscriber, and I run into those people
[51:25] all the time in terms of uh chatting
[51:27] with them, the main reality is you're
[51:30] going to get a lot from the weekly
[51:31] videos if it's just staying up to speed
[51:33] on things. Uh you don't have to pay for
[51:35] the subscriber list, but for the
[51:36] subscriber list, you are getting
[51:38] thematic ideas, you're getting the
[51:40] names, you're getting the list, you're
[51:41] getting technical updates, and anything
[51:43] new that happens on the commodity, the
[51:45] semi side, the optical fiber side, or
[51:47] anything that pops out. I will cover
[51:49] some of the biotech side this week in
[51:51] terms of pharmaceuticals. There's just a
[51:53] variety of information that I'm trying
[51:54] to get out to people.
[51:56] >> I'm uh I'm excited to watch. I watch
[51:57] every Sunday. And anyone who watches
[51:59] this, you should go say thank you to
[52:00] Jordy. You should go to his YouTube
[52:02] channel. Go to Jordy Visser YouTube on
[52:04] Google and uh hit the subscribe button.
[52:06] That's like the thank you. You send him
[52:07] like a digital, you know, kiss every
[52:09] Sunday morning. So, he gets very
[52:10] excited. Um look, look at his reaction.
[52:14] See?
[52:15] >> Yeah. And for people who want to go, if
[52:17] you've never seen the subscriber side,
[52:19] since uh the one thing I haven't done
[52:20] well is create a website yet for Visser
[52:23] Labs that directs people to all the
[52:25] places that I am, cuz I am everywhere
[52:28] all the time. Uh if you go to
[52:30] 22viarch.com,
[52:33] um that's where my subscriber stuff is.
[52:35] 22vira.com.
[52:39] >> Amazing, Jordy. Thank you. We'll do it
[52:41] again next Friday, Saturday.
[52:42] >> Thanks, bud. I'll be back in New York
[52:43] next week.
[52:44] >> Thanks, Jordy. We'll do next Saturday.