¿Dogecoin y Bitcoin están dando señales de algo importante?

[0:00] because of what I believe with
[0:01] tokenization, because of what I believe
[0:03] is happening with the network effects,
[0:05] the fact that yesterday the Clarity Act
[0:07] probability skyrocketed up to 73% before
[0:10] the end of the year. I believe we are in
[0:12] a very important point in crypto. We're
[0:15] a year from now. What's going on, guys?
[0:17] Today, we got a great conversation with
[0:19] Jordy Visser. Jordy goes through what's
[0:21] going on in the macro environment, why
[0:22] stocks hitting all-time highs may be a
[0:24] tale of caution, what's going on with
[0:26] interest rates, inflation, where he
[0:28] thinks we go from here. also Bitcoin and
[0:30] Dogecoin. Jordy talks about Dogecoin as
[0:32] a signal for something he's paying
[0:34] attention to. And frankly, it made a lot
[0:36] of sense once he explained it. All that
[0:37] and much more in this conversation with
[0:39] Jordi Visser. All right, Jordy, let's
[0:41] start with the new all-time high in the
[0:43] stock market. It feels like the month of
[0:45] May is the coming out party for the
[0:46] stock market. There's been nine or 10
[0:48] trading days of the month, yet we hit
[0:51] six different new all-time highs
[0:53] already. And so, the momentum has just
[0:55] been getting more momentum. What is
[0:57] driving all of this excitement,
[0:59] enthusiasm, and potentially fraud in the
[1:01] stock market?
[1:03] >> Yeah, we've made new all-time highs, but
[1:05] there's um there's one part of the
[1:07] market that continues to drive it, which
[1:10] is the AI trade. It isn't just semis,
[1:13] but semis are the fuel. Uh that's where
[1:16] the speculation is. And we've been able
[1:20] to uh navigate through everything that's
[1:22] going on with semis driving everything.
[1:25] The the one thing I want to say as as
[1:26] people are watching this and um the
[1:29] stock market's making new all-time
[1:31] highs, but you hear these, you know,
[1:33] these comments over time that it's doing
[1:35] it without a lot of breath. It's very
[1:37] concentrated. Uh and that's one of the
[1:40] the situations that we're we've been in
[1:42] over the course of the last couple
[1:44] weeks. We're actually seeing a lot of 52
[1:48] week new lows. um as many and in some
[1:52] days more than 52- week new highs. Now
[1:56] 52- week new highs and lows are just
[1:59] over the last year. So when you say
[2:01] all-time highs, we actually have a lot
[2:03] of names that are making new lows. Um we
[2:06] only have just above or right around 50%
[2:09] of the stocks above their 200 day moving
[2:11] average. That's a one-year moving
[2:12] average effectively or close to it. So
[2:15] this is not a broad rally. And whenever
[2:17] this happens, that means there's a
[2:19] struggle going on. The things that are
[2:21] near the 52- week lows are remain
[2:25] software, which is still being disrupted
[2:26] by AI. It's not all software, but a lot
[2:29] of software companies. Uh, and then you
[2:31] also have everything related to the
[2:33] consumer. So, you've got McDonald's
[2:36] close to 52- week high lows. You have uh
[2:39] Nike near 52- week lows. You have I can
[2:42] go through like a list of these
[2:43] whirlpool on the housing side.
[2:46] Everything on the consumer side has been
[2:48] an issue. Now, historically, when
[2:50] consumer stocks are going down, that
[2:53] means inside the market, we're starting
[2:55] to say the economy is going to weaken.
[2:56] And again, that's on the back of rates
[2:58] moving higher and oil moving higher. And
[3:00] we have a very exhausted situation. And
[3:03] I mentioned this last week and I did for
[3:05] my subscribers uh a Tuesday video just
[3:08] saying we're not only exhausted which
[3:10] means the market has on the
[3:13] semiconductors has reached an all-time
[3:15] high but it is so stretched relative to
[3:19] every metric you can. It's kind of like
[3:22] going a year without rain in California
[3:25] and being in one of those hills where
[3:26] all it takes is a match and all of a
[3:28] sudden things go. And this week we
[3:29] started to see a lot of signs that uh
[3:32] semiconductors are at risk uh especially
[3:35] memory prices. And my gut tells me
[3:38] because I've been waiting for this
[3:40] inflation regime uh that we're in it
[3:42] now. Uh a lot of people didn't buy into
[3:45] it or they kind of became you know not
[3:48] caring about it. But I think Iran is now
[3:50] starting to have an impact. And I find
[3:52] it highly unlikely unless oil were to
[3:54] collapse, which is not going to happen,
[3:56] that the consumer names are going to get
[3:58] a reprieve from either lower rates cuz
[4:00] we have now hikes being built in. Oil
[4:02] prices are not coming down anytime soon
[4:05] in a meaningful way. Uh and then we have
[4:07] the back end of the year which people
[4:09] are going to have to deal with food
[4:10] prices and we got bad news on the food
[4:12] situation this week with a horrible
[4:14] report on kind of the spring season
[4:16] already uh in terms of the crop report.
[4:20] We're going to have higher food prices
[4:21] in the second half of the year. So I
[4:22] think the market is digesting and right
[4:24] now the overbought exhausted things uh
[4:27] look like they're losing the fight right
[4:28] now. Now, Scott Besson, the Treasury
[4:31] Secretary, when he was in China, he gave
[4:33] an interview to CNBC and he says that uh
[4:35] once the Iran wars ended, he thinks that
[4:37] energy and oil prices will come down and
[4:39] therefore inflation will subside. Uh
[4:42] dare I say, he was hinting at the idea
[4:44] that inflation will be transitory,
[4:45] although he did not use those terms. Um,
[4:48] do you think it is possible that energy
[4:51] prices could come down and inflation
[4:53] will come down or is there such a
[4:55] structural change both in the energy
[4:57] market and then therefore the the flow
[4:58] through to consumer inflation that your
[5:02] base case is that kind of higher level
[5:03] of equilibrium and we should brace for
[5:05] this to be like a two plus year uh
[5:07] exercise similar to the last time that
[5:09] inflation flared up.
[5:11] Well, first of all, um Scott Besson is
[5:14] talking his book, obviously. Um this is
[5:16] a major bet that they've made. The
[5:20] midterms are coming up. So, they want
[5:22] this to go down, but when you um start a
[5:25] conflict and you've got a chokeold place
[5:28] like the Straight of Hormuz, you don't
[5:30] get to choose when it ends. Um that is a
[5:33] negotiation. And uh anyone who's been in
[5:36] any kind of negotiation, there's two
[5:38] sides to a negotiation. and making oil
[5:41] go back down is not something that they
[5:43] have complete control over. Um, on the
[5:46] second point, see this is the problem
[5:48] with inflation and this is why, you
[5:50] know, I I spoke out against true
[5:52] inflation. I spoke out against it.
[5:55] Your view on inflation and what's gone
[5:57] down. We just saw a CPI coming in at 6
[5:59] last month was 0.9. It's down. That
[6:02] doesn't matter. What matters is where is
[6:04] headline inflation relative to what
[6:07] people expected. People did not expect
[6:09] inflation to go higher in the market.
[6:11] You cannot buy stocks at at without any
[6:14] risk and believe that if inflation goes
[6:17] higher and rates go higher that it's not
[6:18] going to have an impact on the market.
[6:19] That's just not true. If inflation does
[6:21] go higher than expected and that's
[6:23] what's starting to happen. We not only
[6:24] have the CPI this month uh this week, we
[6:27] had PPI which surprised on the upside,
[6:30] but most importantly we had the import
[6:32] price inflation which was really the
[6:34] leading part of this. This started
[6:35] before the war. A lot of the inflation
[6:37] data started before the war. So I live
[6:39] in a world of facts. I don't live in in
[6:41] jawbon and you know backtesting models
[6:44] to to look at things. I'm listening to
[6:47] investors and I'm going through what the
[6:49] surprise would be. And I'm looking at
[6:50] the charts. The rates charts are kind of
[6:52] scary. Um part of the reason that I said
[6:55] we're going into a regime shift is
[6:56] because we now have threemon bills
[6:59] sitting at 369 and year-over-year
[7:01] inflation currently is 3.8. That number
[7:03] is going higher. And even if we get a
[7:05] 0.5 number next month in the month
[7:07] overmonth number, if we keep putting in
[7:10] 0.5s, 0.5s over the course of 12 months
[7:12] get you above 6%. And that's
[7:15] year-over-year. So you have to be
[7:17] careful of inflation about a what
[7:19] they're saying and secondly what's going
[7:20] to happen. There was a Supreme Court
[7:22] ruling yesterday on the trucking
[7:25] industry. Uh I'm going to go through
[7:27] this over the weekend. This is really
[7:29] important because this is something that
[7:30] had started in the courts with the Biden
[7:32] administration. Uh, and you had a
[7:34] unanimous decision in the courts. When's
[7:36] the last time we had a unanimous
[7:38] decision in the Supreme Court? And this
[7:40] was about effectively trucking
[7:42] companies, the brokers, needing to make
[7:45] sure that who they're directing business
[7:48] to that
[7:50] they're liable for if people don't have
[7:52] insurance or if people So, it really
[7:54] kind of gets into the underground market
[7:56] of trucking, which is going to limit
[7:58] capacity. The reason I'm bringing up
[7:59] this up is we have diesel prices through
[8:01] the roof. Now you're going to have less
[8:02] capacity in trucks. This country runs on
[8:05] the trucking side and rates are already
[8:07] going higher. This is why anyone arguing
[8:09] that inflation is not going higher. I
[8:12] just don't find it credible that you can
[8:13] ignore semiconductors. You can ignore
[8:15] memory prices, CPUs, bottlenecks in
[8:18] transformers, gas turbines. We have a
[8:20] bottleneck supply shortage situation
[8:23] which is coming because the
[8:24] administration decided last year they
[8:26] wanted to run this thing hot. This is
[8:28] all part of debasement. If we have
[8:31] inflation running higher, that means
[8:33] nominal GDP runs higher than interest
[8:35] rates. Well, that's how you get out of a
[8:37] debt problem. That's one of the ways
[8:38] that you do it. And I think that's the
[8:40] attempt. The issue is going to be now
[8:42] that rates are pushing higher, we start
[8:44] to worry about the debt again because
[8:45] interest expense is now $1.2 trillion a
[8:48] year on the expense side. Even with
[8:51] rates at these levels, they're not in a
[8:52] position to be able to raise rates. And
[8:54] even if they were, how much are they
[8:55] going to raise them? Is that going to
[8:56] stop inflation? No. because I do agree
[8:59] it's transitory just like the last one
[9:01] was transitory. The question is how long
[9:03] is transitory and if we go another six
[9:06] months of year-over-year CPI going
[9:08] higher. I think in that environment the
[9:11] market's going to have trouble. It's
[9:12] going to be pressing on the rate
[9:13] situation. And just remember the worst
[9:15] of last year post liberation day was
[9:19] when we had stocks, bonds and the dollar
[9:22] going down. I think people have to start
[9:24] worrying that maybe again we haven't had
[9:27] a correction now again in since we've
[9:29] had this massive rally. I think for
[9:31] semiconductors we're going to start to
[9:33] see some issues pop up uh where going to
[9:36] have to have some profit taking and then
[9:38] on the flip side I just think we're
[9:39] going to be dealing with inflation for
[9:41] longer than people think. Now what I
[9:43] find very interesting is if you look at
[9:44] the true inflation uh chart forget for a
[9:47] second the number just the direction of
[9:48] travel uh into the beginning of this
[9:51] year there was a significant draw down I
[9:53] think we saw that then in the CPI metric
[9:55] as well there was this draw down um we
[9:57] also to your point uh saw the stock
[9:59] market a couple of weeks after that draw
[10:01] down so you kind of had everything
[10:03] saying hey there is liquidity there is
[10:05] inflation coming down there is this
[10:07] headwind of kind of deflationary forces
[10:10] I think that now what we have seen is we
[10:12] saw through inflation literally like a
[10:14] V-shaped recovery in the inflation uh
[10:17] data. CPI 100% is going higher and and
[10:20] has gone higher. Um and then you have
[10:22] the stock market which has rallied you
[10:24] know very aggressively off the bottom.
[10:26] Uh probably the second best recovery in
[10:28] you know 70 years or so. I think one of
[10:31] the aspects that becomes very
[10:33] interesting is most people especially in
[10:36] the Bitcoin world would say higher
[10:38] inflation means that inflation both hits
[10:41] the consumer but it pushes asset prices
[10:44] up as well. Now I think if I go and I
[10:46] talk to people on Wall Street what they
[10:48] will say is some version of yes that's
[10:50] true but markets are forward-looking and
[10:53] if inflation goes higher and asset
[10:55] prices get ahead of themselves that
[10:56] means the Fed is going to be forced to
[10:58] raise rates which then means there's a
[10:59] headwind and so they're maybe a little
[11:01] bit more cautious about responding to
[11:03] that higher inflation and potential
[11:05] asset appreciation. How do you look at
[11:07] that balance? because we know inflation
[11:08] does drive asset prices, but I think
[11:10] that what you're talking about here is
[11:12] like, but if we get that, then the Fed
[11:14] will have to cut or excuse me, raise
[11:15] rates and that could be actually a
[11:16] headwind for asset prices.
[11:20] >> There's one part of the puzzle that's
[11:22] missing, which is rates. Um, and the
[11:24] debt.
[11:25] There is not a single time since the
[11:28] overprinting during COVID that when
[11:31] rates went higher, it wasn't bad for the
[11:33] market. At some point you reach a level
[11:35] where it starts to get bad for the
[11:37] market. And the reason is the interest
[11:39] expense starts going higher and the
[11:41] market starts going through the debt
[11:43] fears again. Remember markets are all
[11:46] about expectations and they're about
[11:47] earnings and they're about the earnings
[11:49] are great. We just had a a great
[11:51] earnings quarter. My best guess here is
[11:54] a lot of that was the front loing of the
[11:57] purchases of memory and semiconductor
[11:59] chips. Uh, you know, I'll be
[12:02] highlighting this weekend that the
[12:03] second derivative of memory has already
[12:05] shifted. We're not going up as fast in
[12:07] price as we were, which means they're
[12:10] going to have to do more volume. And
[12:12] this is where nominal GDP becomes
[12:14] important for people on earnings. I
[12:17] think you're going to see a sharp
[12:18] deceleration in the earnings growth,
[12:20] which shouldn't be a surprise. We just
[12:21] came in at 27 plus% year-over-year. So
[12:24] going down to even 15, it's a big drop
[12:27] off. When the market has had a big run
[12:30] and it's only a small portion of the
[12:32] market, it makes sense for things to
[12:33] kind of drift lower. But I do think
[12:36] people have to remember that when you
[12:37] have inflation moving higher and you
[12:39] have rates moving higher, you're in a
[12:41] different macro regime. And the question
[12:43] is, will the Fed raise rates? Now, I
[12:46] don't think they will, but every day
[12:48] that an inflation print goes higher,
[12:50] every day that you're feeling it, then
[12:52] this becomes an issue. Do we raise rates
[12:55] or do we not? And I think that
[12:56] uncertainty is what the market is going
[12:58] to be grappling with. And this will
[13:00] probably last, and I hate to say this,
[13:02] all the way into the midterms. Uh, at
[13:04] some point here, we were probably going
[13:06] to have uncertainty
[13:08] because people were hoping that Iran
[13:11] would just be over and the straight
[13:13] would open. Well, that's not happened.
[13:14] And we have gone through inventories
[13:16] very very fast. And I want to make sure
[13:19] people know as someone who um doesn't
[13:21] believe that the doomers about oil uh
[13:26] should be listened to from the extent of
[13:28] the world's going to collapse like co.
[13:30] It's not co but what they are absolutely
[13:32] right about is that two things are going
[13:35] to come out of this. Number one, any
[13:37] country in the world is worried about
[13:39] their inventory and their strategic
[13:41] petroleum reserve because Iran is not
[13:44] going away. So this stroke, this
[13:47] chokeold point, it matters. And whatever
[13:50] we're going to do to get around it,
[13:51] building new pipelines, moving stuff
[13:53] other places, that's going to take
[13:54] years. And so what you're left with is a
[13:56] scenario that it's not expected to be a
[13:59] big hurricane season, but let's assume a
[14:01] Katrina goes through the Gulf of Mexico.
[14:02] Well, then you're going to have supply
[14:04] disruptions that last for a period of
[14:06] time. We don't have the inventories
[14:08] anymore the way we did around the globe.
[14:09] So any point of the world that ends up
[14:12] having an oil or gas problem, it's going
[14:13] to matter 10 times as much as it did
[14:15] last year when we had excess supply. So
[14:18] you've got that issue that is going to
[14:20] be around now for the better part. And
[14:22] the other one is again, you're going to
[14:23] see every country hoarding. So I think
[14:25] people are underestimating how long
[14:28] energy prices are going to sit here. And
[14:30] if there's one part of the market at
[14:32] this stage that should benefit from the
[14:34] higher inflation situation, it is going
[14:36] to be energy stocks because they
[14:37] initially went higher with Iran. Believe
[14:40] it or not, they fell off and they've
[14:42] kind of not moved despite good earnings.
[14:44] But I think you're going to see a
[14:45] rotation into energy stocks now over the
[14:47] course of the next month.
[14:49] >> I um I think that we are at the uh uh
[14:52] the demarcation line, if you will. If
[14:55] the Iran war is not over in the next
[14:57] week or so, I think that there is
[14:59] serious risk of the midterms. I think
[15:01] cost of living will not come down. Like
[15:03] this is, you know, when you talk about
[15:04] if you go back and watch maybe the tapes
[15:06] of us talking back in February and into
[15:09] March, I think that we both were
[15:11] highlighting, look, if this is like a
[15:13] twoe exercise, that's a very different
[15:15] thing than if this is a prolonged
[15:17] monthsl long, you know, uh, kind of
[15:18] situation.
[15:20] The problem with saying prolonged is
[15:22] it's kind of you know it's a there's no
[15:24] technical definition. So it could be you
[15:25] know what are we talking about? We
[15:26] talking about a couple weeks a couple
[15:27] months you know a couple years whatever.
[15:29] It just feels like now is the point
[15:32] where if it is not over I mean
[15:34] immediately
[15:35] the damage is going to be done right
[15:37] there's not it's not going to be easy to
[15:38] get inflation back down etc. And so that
[15:40] begs the question, um I'm sure you've
[15:42] seen the charts of uh you know what is
[15:44] the 80s where inflation peaks, it comes
[15:47] crashing down and you almost get like a
[15:48] double top.
[15:49] >> Is that your general thought process is
[15:51] that we get a repeat of that kind of
[15:53] double top and we could see inflation go
[15:56] as high as you know 8 9% in America.
[15:59] >> Is it possible? Yes. Do I think it'll
[16:01] happen? No. Um remember in the first
[16:04] inflation wave it it it was everything.
[16:06] So it was uh it was core inflation as
[16:10] well. The differences this time and the
[16:12] reason I I don't expect it to be that
[16:13] way and the reason well let me start
[16:15] with the reason why not um we also got
[16:18] numbers on wage pressure this week and
[16:20] wage pressure is at the lowest point
[16:22] back in 2021 and 2022 wage pressure was
[16:26] at the highest point. I mean, I wrote in
[16:29] my paper this week on running hot into
[16:31] scarcity that I mean, it was tough to
[16:35] get people back from yoloing. Like, this
[16:37] is a completely different world and
[16:39] wages matter a lot because that's what
[16:41] people can pay with. So, we're just
[16:43] we're seeing expenditures get cut. And
[16:45] this is why the stock market, you know,
[16:46] I talk about it all the time. Um, ECRI,
[16:50] which is a a very um important uh group
[16:53] in my life. When I was in Brazil, I
[16:56] started to study uh economic cycle and
[16:58] ECRI stands for economic cycle research
[17:01] institute. They do phenomenal work and
[17:03] they recently um came out and said that
[17:06] they have a longleading inflation signal
[17:08] and that says to me we could get back up
[17:11] especially with the AI shortages that
[17:12] are happening. I just don't think people
[17:15] fully grasp how important oil is across
[17:18] prochemicals and like how many things it
[17:20] just impacts our life. you're going to
[17:22] have elevated inflation but for services
[17:25] and for a lot of things related to the
[17:27] economy we have a good portion of the
[17:29] economy which is not healthy and so when
[17:31] you look at the stock market and the way
[17:33] I replaced ECRI from the way they do um
[17:36] economic data points is I used assets so
[17:39] when I say breath is bad and I tell you
[17:41] the housing stuff is horrible and the
[17:43] consumer uh restaurant stuff is horrible
[17:45] and I go through all of these different
[17:47] things the stock market is telling you
[17:49] the economy is not rate in a very very
[17:52] important part which is consumption.
[17:55] It's not going to go to a recession but
[17:57] I think it says to your point with the
[17:58] midterms that this is going to be an
[18:00] issue. Now you made a comment and I just
[18:02] want to make people uh realize this.
[18:07] You said if the war ends we haven't had
[18:09] bombing there's no war right now. This
[18:12] is actually something much much worse.
[18:14] This is a strategic game of controlling
[18:18] a straight which is responsible for a
[18:21] very high percentage of all the world's
[18:23] oil. And if it never resumes again,
[18:26] we'll start running out of stuff, guys.
[18:27] Like that's plain and simple. That's why
[18:29] the doomers have basically talked about
[18:31] how bad this situation is. They are 100%
[18:34] right that if this extends and keeps
[18:36] going, you have to have demand
[18:38] destruction. Now, as of now, I'm sure
[18:40] there's been demand managing as opposed
[18:43] to destruction. The managing being
[18:45] countries can see it. I make jokes about
[18:47] this, but on X, you can go watch the
[18:50] boats not go through the straight like
[18:51] it's a video game. So, you couldn't do
[18:54] this 20 years ago or especially not
[18:55] during the 1970s. So, I think countries
[18:58] have prepared as best they can. They
[19:00] used up inventories. They've they've
[19:02] renegotiated where they're getting
[19:04] stuff. We've used pipelines we probably
[19:06] weren't using to full capacity, but
[19:08] we're still draining inventories and
[19:09] those data points are showing up. So, I
[19:12] think you're right. If this doesn't get
[19:14] um if we don't get the straight reopen,
[19:15] forget the war. If the straight isn't
[19:17] completely reopened, which I see very
[19:19] little chance of happening in the near
[19:20] term, uh you're left with a situation
[19:23] that I think people should expect higher
[19:24] inflation. I don't think it's going back
[19:26] up to the peaks that we were, but it
[19:29] doesn't take much to make that happen.
[19:31] So, I want to um maybe expand our view
[19:34] of the energy market. Uh obviously, the
[19:37] straight is very important as you're
[19:38] highlighting, but there's other chess
[19:40] pieces on the board that are all being
[19:42] moved at the same time. And I think on
[19:43] one hand, this is intellectually
[19:44] stimulating for a lot of people thinking
[19:45] about this. Uh but it's very difficult
[19:47] to navigate for investors and for uh
[19:50] operators. And so the other two maybe
[19:52] chess pieces that I want to introduce to
[19:54] this conversation is Jensen Hang uh this
[19:57] past week said that he believes that the
[19:59] energy needs are 1,000x
[20:03] larger than what we currently have. He
[20:05] didn't say 10, he didn't say 100, he
[20:07] said a thousand. He doesn't usually
[20:09] strike me as somebody who is overly
[20:10] bombastic. So he says a thousand and
[20:12] it's really like 50. He tends to be, you
[20:14] know, he kind of says what he thinks.
[20:16] And so a 1000x is a very large number.
[20:19] the same time um we heard for the first
[20:22] time the anthropic CFO uh he went on
[20:25] Patrick Oshanaugh's invest like the best
[20:27] podcast and one he should do all the
[20:29] talking for anthropic going forward I
[20:31] think he was very articulate and very
[20:33] impressive um but two was he talked
[20:36] about this like cone of uncertainty and
[20:38] how if they buy too much compute and you
[20:41] know by proxy energy then they are dead
[20:44] and if they don't buy enough you know
[20:46] that's also bad and so it's basically
[20:48] this like moving Target and they talked
[20:50] about how every single day they were
[20:52] having a daily meeting about their
[20:54] compute purchases and energy and and all
[20:56] this stuff. And so the reason why I
[20:58] introduced those two chess pieces is
[20:59] like on one side you have supply being
[21:02] constricted at the exact same moment
[21:05] that you have demand exploding
[21:08] for all the AI energy needs etc. And so
[21:11] it almost takes what you were saying
[21:12] before and like supercharges it now when
[21:14] you realize it's not just one side of
[21:15] the equation. It's actually both supply
[21:17] and demand that are being affected.
[21:19] >> Well, th this is what I've I show almost
[21:22] every week is the inflection point was
[21:24] November of last year when inference
[21:26] officially started as an agentic side.
[21:29] So once Opus 4.5 came into existence.
[21:33] I mean I'm down in in in Fort Lauderdale
[21:36] and I gave a speech on stage and that
[21:40] there was there was a geopolitical
[21:42] person. Um, in fact, I don't I don't
[21:45] know if you can get him on. I don't if
[21:46] he seems kind of expensive. Maybe you've
[21:48] had him on. Uh, John Citiles. Uh, he was
[21:52] fantastic. Um, fantastic. But he gave
[21:55] this long, let's say, 50inute
[21:58] presentation,
[22:00] which had my attention the entire time.
[22:02] When someone with ADHD, that means
[22:03] you're doing a phenomenal job. My my
[22:05] limit's about 15 minutes. So, he went 50
[22:07] and I was I was engaged the entire time.
[22:10] I'm just laughing that you said he
[22:12] seemed expensive. I need you to tell me
[22:14] later what that entails. How can I seem
[22:16] expensive?
[22:17] >> I I I I He seemed for his for his
[22:20] services, his speakings. He was great
[22:23] though. He what he did is he said this
[22:25] is the most important geomac point in 30
[22:28] years. And he was obviously relating
[22:30] going back to um Russia and kind of
[22:34] going through the cold war and where we
[22:36] ended up in in the '9s, the early '9s.
[22:39] It matches up with my presentation where
[22:42] I say this is the most important
[22:44] inflection point not chat GPT release
[22:46] guys that was the democratization of AI
[22:49] but we had already had artificial
[22:50] intelligence this is just when we all
[22:52] got it the major point was when AI
[22:55] agents started to enter our lives when
[22:57] we actually be able to have action
[22:59] that's when co-work started that's
[23:01] really when code started to become
[23:02] something that you could use and
[23:04] everyone said now I'm using all of my
[23:06] code on this so that's when demand
[23:08] started to accelerate dramatically.
[23:10] Nvidia did a deal with Gro at the end of
[23:12] the year because it's like, "Oh my god,
[23:13] this is no longer about data centers.
[23:15] This is about inference and we're not
[23:17] ready for this because you can't do this
[23:18] with GPUs. You actually need east west
[23:20] traffic." Oh my gosh. And so that's what
[23:22] he's talking about. I believe he he said
[23:25] a thousand times compute. And if he
[23:27] didn't say compute, he said energy. He
[23:29] meant compute. And the reason is compute
[23:31] is just broken down into two components.
[23:33] It's energy and chips. So he's saying we
[23:35] need more tokens per watt. So the token
[23:39] needs have gone through the roof which
[23:40] means the watt needs have gone through
[23:42] the roof. And that's how you go from his
[23:44] comment of tokens per watt. Now we've
[23:46] had efficiency gains which allow us to
[23:49] deal with this with Blackwell which is
[23:51] more efficient and then Vera Rubin which
[23:52] is more efficient and then he's already
[23:54] working on the next gen to come out
[23:56] after that which is more efficient. So
[23:58] that means with these current setups,
[23:59] you actually get more efficiency for
[24:02] less power or the same amount of power,
[24:05] you get more tokens. So we're in that
[24:07] situation right now where demand is
[24:09] exploding. At the same time, the supply
[24:11] side is being met to some degree by the
[24:13] efficiency in the chips, but the only
[24:15] way that works. The Blackwells in Vera
[24:17] Rubin are very efficient, but they need
[24:19] to be plugged in. And this is my fear
[24:21] for the second half of the year is that
[24:22] all the bottlenecks we're seeing, all
[24:24] the regulatory pressures on the data
[24:26] centers, we're actually not going to get
[24:29] enough, not to have the AI progress
[24:31] continue, guys, cuz that's going to
[24:33] happen. But I think we're probably over
[24:36] orderering stuff right now. And this is
[24:38] why when I talk about the difference
[24:40] between a business credit cycle in the
[24:42] traditional fiat world where it's
[24:44] manufacturing for consumers where we
[24:46] don't have information between the two
[24:47] groups and you get out of balance and
[24:49] then the Fed needs to come in during a
[24:50] recession, we fire people blah blah
[24:52] blah. This this new world which I termed
[24:56] uh bubbles, parabas,
[24:58] and speed crashes, it's about
[25:00] bottlenecks and shortages. And I think
[25:02] we've overpurchased a lot of
[25:04] semiconductors because we wanted to make
[25:07] sure we were ahead of people. We didn't
[25:09] know what they were buying. So we bought
[25:10] everything. When I say we, the
[25:12] hyperscalers, they're just ordering and
[25:14] buying everything. The problem is if you
[25:16] don't have a place to plug them in, they
[25:17] just sit in your garage until you
[25:19] actually have the data centers built.
[25:20] And I think we're going to be in a
[25:22] window here that will we'll show that at
[25:24] some point in the second half of the
[25:26] year. Today's episode is brought to you
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[27:35] Arch Public, go to archpub.com and tell
[27:39] them I sent you. How does all the um
[27:43] anti- data center movement, the
[27:46] protests, the uh these videos we keep
[27:48] seeing of people yelling and screaming
[27:49] at local community meetings. Um it seems
[27:52] like everyone wants the output of data
[27:56] centers. They want more videos and
[27:58] content and products and software and
[28:01] like all of that. Nobody is saying,
[28:02] "Hey, we want less of that." But there
[28:04] are a growing number of people saying I
[28:06] just don't want the data center in my
[28:08] local community or in my backyard or you
[28:10] know down the street from my house. And
[28:12] so do you expect that to also be a
[28:14] headwind outside of just the actual like
[28:16] components and and power shortages etc.
[28:19] But there's like a social component that
[28:20] investors need to underwrite as well
[28:23] >> of course but this gets back into
[28:25] politics. Um, the same way I talked
[28:27] about Scott Besson is basically talking
[28:30] his book, um, and what he wants to have
[28:32] happen with energy, politicians in these
[28:35] communities are trying to stop data
[28:37] centers. Um, and
[28:40] if you just tell people that you don't
[28:42] know what's going to happen to your
[28:43] water, I don't think anything will scare
[28:45] people faster than you know what's going
[28:46] to happen to your water. They care about
[28:48] their kids. the water usage this uses
[28:50] the the the fumes this goes through the
[28:53] this is what stopped nuclear in the
[28:55] country. So do I think it's a risk?
[28:57] Absolutely it's a risk and I think it's
[28:58] already happening. But this goes back to
[29:01] what's been happening in the country. I
[29:02] mean I'm down in Fort Lauderdale and I'm
[29:04] reading stories about how buildings that
[29:06] aren't even built now are getting demand
[29:08] from everyone from New York who wants to
[29:11] fly down because of the taxes that are
[29:12] going to happen in the city. So the same
[29:15] thing will happen with the data centers.
[29:16] if they can't be built in the north,
[29:18] they'll be built in the south or in in
[29:19] states where they're like, "Okay, you
[29:21] can do it here." The reason we have a
[29:23] rare earth problem with China is because
[29:25] the United States didn't want to have
[29:26] anything to do with rare earth because
[29:28] it is a toxic mineral. It's bad for the
[29:30] environment and China said, "We'll do it
[29:32] because that's their way of kind of
[29:34] dealing with oil." We've had the same
[29:35] thing with fracking. So, anyone who
[29:37] doesn't realize that this is going to be
[29:39] an issue, it already is an issue. It
[29:41] will remain an issue. And this is why
[29:43] Elon Musk, I mean, it's one of the
[29:44] reasons why he wants to do this in
[29:46] space. It's not just because of some of
[29:47] the benefits of having the sun all the
[29:50] time, having automatic cooling is
[29:52] because he thinks you could start a
[29:54] project in a state and it could be shut
[29:56] off because a politician takes over and
[29:58] decides that this isn't going to happen.
[29:59] So, I think these issues are going to be
[30:02] there. The problem with data centers is
[30:04] they take such a long time to build
[30:06] which means you're getting through
[30:08] multiple
[30:09] cycles of politics and politics in a
[30:12] democracy just make it very hard to do
[30:13] anything. So I think this is going to be
[30:15] an issue. It's it's it's a main reason
[30:17] why I think people are making a mistake
[30:20] to not look at semiconductors and just
[30:22] realize one of the reasons that they're
[30:25] going to have to trade at a lower
[30:26] multiple to earnings is because these
[30:28] bottlenecks and these risks are real and
[30:31] it won't be a cyclical stock anymore
[30:33] because AI is a given but over the
[30:36] course of say 6 to 12 months it
[30:38] absolutely could run into a mini
[30:40] recession due to bottlenecks and
[30:42] shortages.
[30:44] Now when we look at um the stock market,
[30:47] I think that you're very uh accurate in
[30:49] saying look there's a lot of carnage
[30:51] actually and there's one sector that's
[30:52] driving everything. Um you can look
[30:54] again the Roundill ETF. I think it's now
[30:56] over 10 billion in the DRAM um ETF. So
[31:00] obviously people want exposure to this
[31:01] stuff. Um but in crypto you texted me a
[31:05] very interesting idea. Usually we talk
[31:07] about Bitcoin and you mentioned Dogecoin
[31:10] and I got to say I, you know, I took off
[31:12] my uh hypothetical glasses and I kind of
[31:14] cleared my eyes again to make sure I was
[31:16] actually reading correctly what you
[31:18] said, but you told me that you were
[31:20] looking at the Dogecoin chart. You don't
[31:22] strike me as a Dogecoin maximalist. So,
[31:25] what uh what's going on with Dogecoin in
[31:27] your mind?
[31:28] >> All right. So, we've been doing this for
[31:30] over a year, and I know there's a lot of
[31:31] people that um both watch slash listen
[31:35] to us, but also watch me on the
[31:38] weekends.
[31:41] >> You're popular. You're popular guy.
[31:43] Good-looking, smart. We get it.
[31:46] >> You're ridiculous. I love data. But what
[31:49] I the data I love the most is the data
[31:52] that I can attach
[31:54] a signal to. So, um, here's my overall
[31:59] belief, and I said this on stage this
[32:01] week. Uh, we talked about Micron
[32:05] Technology
[32:06] last year. Um, uh, Phil Rosen, uh, your
[32:11] guy, uh, reposted something very nicely
[32:14] about me and said that in my stock
[32:17] selection for his piece last year for
[32:19] the best stocks for 2025, mine was
[32:21] Micron, and I did that when it was 86.
[32:26] I mentioned last week that I sold out of
[32:28] two/3 of my micron. Well, I got rid of
[32:30] the last third this week because
[32:34] >> but here's the thing. It has nothing to
[32:36] do with my belief in AI and my belief
[32:38] that Micron's going higher. I do believe
[32:39] it's going higher. And as I said last
[32:41] week at 6:30 when I made the 23 sell,
[32:47] did I think it was going to double from
[32:48] there over the next year? No. at eight
[32:51] something. I was like, "Well, now I'm
[32:53] I'm I'm not I'm not I'm not looking at
[32:56] this anymore." It had already gone up
[32:58] eight times from where it was a year and
[33:00] change ago. If you're lucky to get an
[33:02] eight bagger in crypto, you're happy.
[33:03] Well, this was in a public stock. So, to
[33:06] me, it was like, go find something else.
[33:08] Now, what I told these people on stage
[33:10] was because of what I believe with
[33:12] tokenization, because of what I believe
[33:14] is happening with the network effects.
[33:16] the fact that yesterday the clarity act
[33:18] probability skyrocketed up to 73% before
[33:21] the end of the year. I believe we are in
[33:24] a very important point in crypto where a
[33:27] year from now the same problem that
[33:30] these institutional investors are having
[33:31] with semiconductors which is how do we
[33:33] buy something that's gone up eight times
[33:35] from where it was even though the
[33:37] earnings are good I can't do this even
[33:38] if it's cheap crypto is going to move
[33:41] away fast at some point too and Micron
[33:44] stayed below and everyone can go look at
[33:46] this it stayed below 110
[33:49] repeatedly for the entire first part of
[33:52] last year in the same way that crypto
[33:53] has. It didn't have the energy to push
[33:56] through and I couldn't figure it out
[33:58] because as someone who was absorbed with
[33:59] AI, I knew we weren't going to have
[34:01] enough memory. That was clear. I didn't
[34:04] think it would get to the situation it
[34:06] did in with inference. But that first
[34:09] move from 100 to 250, that's absolutely
[34:12] what I thought and that's what I wrote
[34:13] about. I thought it would double. Well,
[34:16] when inference came out and I realized
[34:18] how much more memory was needed, that
[34:20] changed the equation. I think a year
[34:21] from now people will be looking at
[34:23] crypto in the same way. They're not
[34:25] paying attention to it right now because
[34:27] it's not moving. So this is where
[34:28] Dogecoin fits in. Dogecoin to me has no
[34:31] institutional sponsorship. It has zero
[34:35] associated with what I'm doing. And
[34:37] that's why me not looking at it is
[34:39] important. The reason I started looking
[34:40] at it is technically it looks close to a
[34:44] breakout. At the same time, Bitcoin up
[34:46] near the 200 day moving average looks
[34:48] like a breakout. Ethereum around 2400 to
[34:51] 2450 to me would look like a breakout.
[34:54] But Dogecoin to me, if it can break out
[34:56] and actually run, that would mean that
[34:59] retail is starting to get interested. We
[35:01] talked about how retail was focused on
[35:02] AI. Well, guess what? If I'm right about
[35:05] memory, that whole DRAM thing right now,
[35:07] it's done. It's not that it won't be
[35:10] back in a year or maybe two years, but
[35:12] it's already had a huge run. Micron has
[35:14] outperformed every Mag 7 dramatically
[35:17] since 2018. dramatically. Forget the
[35:20] last year. Dramatically. So, I think
[35:22] we're at a point where you have to watch
[35:24] things like Dogecoin. You have to watch
[35:25] things like Bitcoin. If Bitcoin gets
[35:27] above that 82,000 level, it will have
[35:29] broken the 200 day moving average. And
[35:30] I'll end it on this. I said the most
[35:32] important thing was the regime shift
[35:34] this week. We have negative real yields
[35:37] and I think they're only going to get
[35:38] worse. And I don't think the Fed is
[35:40] going to move rates. And I think
[35:42] earnings in the S&P are still going to
[35:43] be good, which means there will be a
[35:45] floor to the stock market. Even if we
[35:46] get a sell-off, you want to be in a
[35:48] position to buy things because I think
[35:50] they're going to have to do something in
[35:52] rates. And that's why rates moving
[35:54] higher is actually the best thing for
[35:55] gold, for silver, for copper, and for
[35:58] Bitcoin because the government will have
[36:00] to push rates back down. And that's
[36:02] going to take some kind of debasement
[36:04] move that they're going to have to do to
[36:06] keep these under control. And I think
[36:07] that's a positive.
[36:09] >> So, I just want to make sure people
[36:11] understand because they're going to hear
[36:12] Jordy, Dogecoin, and they're all going
[36:13] to freak out. What you're saying is you
[36:16] almost don't care what the underlying
[36:18] asset, the thesis, etc. You're using
[36:20] Dogecoin as almost a retail index.
[36:24] You're saying there's no institutional
[36:25] participation here. And therefore, if
[36:27] there is excitement in the quote unquote
[36:29] retail index, which is just happens to
[36:31] be named Dogecoin, then that is a signal
[36:33] that you would use that retail
[36:34] excitement is coming back to crypto more
[36:36] generally, Bitcoin, etc. And so really,
[36:39] you're almost using it as like an alarm
[36:40] system because it is the most pure play
[36:43] non-institutional asset that has size
[36:46] and liquidity in crypto.
[36:47] >> I don't even need to say anything else.
[36:49] You just described it exactly the way
[36:50] I'm using it.
[36:52] >> All right. Now, now it makes a lot of
[36:54] sense. I, you know, I had a I thought
[36:56] maybe you drank something crazy in Fort
[36:57] Lauderdale. I was going to have to come
[36:58] check on you when you first texted me.
[37:00] Um, let's talk about uh uh um Trump's
[37:04] trip to China.
[37:06] I saw somebody um I I don't want to uh
[37:09] say who it is because I don't know if he
[37:11] he wants us to bring a bunch of
[37:12] attention to his trading ideas, but he
[37:14] tweeted
[37:16] here's the list of all the CEOs going to
[37:19] China. They're all like trillion dollar,
[37:22] you know, hundreds of billions of
[37:24] dollars and there was like one company
[37:25] that was like a $5 billion company. And
[37:27] he said that he put $350,000 into that
[37:30] stock and that was the only reason why.
[37:32] He goes, "Why is that CEO there?
[37:34] something is going on with that CEO that
[37:36] he's associated with these people and
[37:38] his stock is too small and therefore I'm
[37:40] buying it. And he joked, he was like,
[37:42] "This is what investing has come to is
[37:44] that like the, you know, White House
[37:45] asset management trying to read the tea
[37:48] leaves may actually be a signal for a
[37:50] return." Now, whether that ends up being
[37:52] a good investment or not, I have no
[37:53] clue.
[37:54] >> But it does feel like there has been
[37:56] immense scrutiny on who's on the trip,
[37:59] why are they there, what is being talked
[38:01] about, right? Like there's so much
[38:03] attention on this. Is there anything
[38:06] that you're paying attention to that you
[38:07] think is actually important or is this
[38:09] all just like the soap opera of politics
[38:11] and finance now and it's a lot more
[38:13] noise than signal to you?
[38:14] >> I I really do think that this was more
[38:16] for show. Um I I I thought there might
[38:19] be something big going on and there be
[38:21] some big announcements, but unless
[38:22] there's something later, I think this
[38:25] was really more to show how important
[38:27] the relationship was. It was like
[38:29] bringing people to a meeting that you
[38:31] want to emphasize that you really do
[38:33] want to have a grand bargain. Uh it
[38:36] doesn't seem like anything super
[38:37] important came out of this other than
[38:39] she's going to take a visit apparently
[38:41] to the White House uh I guess in
[38:43] September. But uh I viewed it as one of
[38:46] the reasons that the markets had a tough
[38:48] time overnight is they were probably
[38:50] expecting something positive to come out
[38:52] of this and really honestly nothing did.
[38:55] And I think that's really one of the big
[38:56] things. So, I'm going to take the China
[38:58] US trip as
[39:01] just another sign that um we're kind of
[39:05] in this, you know, mediation between two
[39:08] people getting divorced and we're we
[39:10] realize that the kids are going to be
[39:12] connected to both of us and the kids in
[39:14] this case are the global economy and the
[39:16] rest of the countries and we got to find
[39:18] some way to divvy up the assets and you
[39:21] know, hey, you're not touching Taiwan.
[39:24] Hey, just so you know, we've got control
[39:25] of the world's oil. Um I I think that's
[39:29] what this was. So
[39:31] >> it's like uh uh some sort of I like the
[39:34] word mediation, but maybe um this whole
[39:37] idea of like
[39:41] Trump in particular obviously thinks
[39:43] that China is an adversary in some ways,
[39:46] but he's very complimentary. He is very
[39:49] um uh a showman when he is engaging with
[39:52] them. Um, I always find it uh quite
[39:55] funny that we send the president to
[39:58] China. Very rarely does the president of
[40:00] China come to Washington DC. I think the
[40:03] last time, if I remember correctly, that
[40:05] uh Xi Jinping came to America, he went
[40:06] to San Francisco and there was this
[40:08] whole controversy of they like cleaned
[40:09] up the city for a weekend and then like
[40:11] let it go back into, you know, dismal uh
[40:14] state. Um,
[40:16] and so are you changing anything in your
[40:18] portfolio this week other than selling
[40:20] Micron?
[40:22] >> The biggest thing for me was um I think
[40:26] there was
[40:28] there was a need if not a uh
[40:32] a hope by the market that somehow or
[40:35] another China would intervene on Iran.
[40:39] And we'll see what happens with ships
[40:41] going through the straight. Maybe it's
[40:43] not going to be announced, but maybe
[40:44] Iran is behind closed doors going to
[40:46] allow more ships to go through. But I
[40:48] think that was the most important sign,
[40:50] and that's why you've got oil prices
[40:52] this morning going higher. I'm sure over
[40:54] the weekend, um, as oil prices go higher
[40:56] and as rates go higher, there'll be
[40:59] something out of the White House to say
[41:00] that this is all under control. Um, in
[41:03] fact, I'd be shocked if it didn't
[41:04] happen. So, if if the market ends up on
[41:06] the lows today, just I wouldn't be
[41:08] stupid enough to go out over the weekend
[41:10] short or or or not expecting that
[41:13] there'll be some announcement because of
[41:14] rates moving higher. And every time
[41:16] 30-year yields have gotten above 5%, the
[41:18] government has responded and we're above
[41:20] 5% decidedly. Uh so, I think that's the
[41:23] main issue is that uh the Iran situation
[41:26] didn't really get dealt with and so
[41:29] we're just at a point where the market
[41:30] has run out of gas.
[41:32] >> All right, I want to end on a fun one.
[41:34] and you have no uh no warning of this.
[41:36] So, we're going to get your raw
[41:37] thoughts. Have you paid attention at all
[41:39] to the GameStop eBay saga and uh Ryan
[41:43] Cohen and GameStop trying to buy eBay
[41:45] for 55 billion?
[41:47] >> Yes.
[41:48] >> All right. What are your thoughts? You
[41:50] think they can do it?
[41:51] >> No, I don't think they can do it.
[41:54] >> Elaborate.
[41:56] I I So, you know, and this might be the
[41:59] cynic in me. Um, and I don't use social
[42:03] media for this, but sometimes I think
[42:05] people use social media when they're not
[42:07] on the front page anymore. I don't, you
[42:09] know, I mean, I I I think that goes on
[42:11] probably more than we realize to try and
[42:13] get energy, but in particular
[42:16] if your and I'm not going to say it is
[42:19] for Ryan, but if your life is social
[42:22] media and the attention that you need,
[42:25] sometimes I think people just put things
[42:27] out there um to get that attention and
[42:29] to get the fire lit and go through it.
[42:31] So, I I think this, and again, I'm just
[42:34] a cynic and someone who who believes
[42:36] that social media is used to try and
[42:39] draw attention to individuals, that this
[42:41] was purely let's get us back in there,
[42:43] make sure people know GameStop is still
[42:45] around. Uh, let's make sure we're back
[42:47] in the headlines. It is. Uh, I don't
[42:50] think it's real.
[42:52] >> Interesting.
[42:54] I think he really wants to be the CEO. I
[42:56] don't know if the deal can get done, but
[42:59] um I also think it's the perfect target
[43:04] for something that I'm gonna call
[43:07] digital activist investing, which is
[43:10] very different. Like, you know, one of
[43:12] my favorite stories is always the Paul
[43:13] Singer like an Elliot, you know, they
[43:15] went and they took like the warship from
[43:16] Argentina or whatever it was and like
[43:19] that was, you know, that was crazy. But
[43:21] that's like old school activism. uh or
[43:23] or um uh you know maybe a Carl icon,
[43:27] whatever. I think Bill Aman is been
[43:30] touching you know kind of the stove a
[43:31] little bit when it comes to this like
[43:33] digital activism and the ability to use
[43:34] social media. But what I saw with Open
[43:39] Door and I shared this with a with a
[43:41] couple of people uh in private this week
[43:43] u but I'm more convinced the more I've
[43:44] thought about it. We've never seen a
[43:49] digital activism campaign that went
[43:52] after what I'll call like corporate
[43:55] executives.
[43:56] And at Open Door, pretty much the like
[44:00] retail audience me'd CEO until she
[44:03] stepped down. Like they just pressured
[44:05] her.
[44:06] >> And I think that in like corporate
[44:08] America, you kind of throw barbs, but
[44:10] it's like a gentleman's, you know, kind
[44:12] of competition. And so there's like some
[44:14] things that are off limits or you know
[44:15] you don't personally go after people or
[44:17] you would never like post a meme about a
[44:19] person or whatever. But because politics
[44:21] has degraded to where now that happens,
[44:24] it almost feels like that's being
[44:25] introduced now in corporate America. And
[44:28] there's probably no group of people
[44:29] other than the GameStop shareholders
[44:31] that are like experts at doing this. And
[44:34] so it does feel like there's things that
[44:37] they can do. Now doesn't mean that that
[44:39] the corporate governance of eBay cares.
[44:41] Like they may not be on the internet.
[44:42] they just maybe like you know who cares
[44:44] whatever.
[44:45] >> But to me that was my big takeaway is
[44:46] like oh wait a second here you have like
[44:48] the traditional playbook is now meeting
[44:51] this like digital activist playbook and
[44:56] open door was maybe the first time I
[44:58] really saw it. This could be the second
[45:00] one. We we'll kind of see what they do
[45:02] if they stand down or if there's some
[45:03] sort of proxy or something. But I do
[45:05] feel like this is going to become more
[45:07] and more, which kind of ties into your
[45:08] Dogecoin thesis of like actually the
[45:10] retail flows, the retail excitement, the
[45:12] retail energy may be one of the most
[45:15] important signals for people to pay
[45:16] attention to because where attention
[45:18] goes, capital flows, you know, and
[45:20] there's kind of returns that then come
[45:22] off of that. So th this is the beauty of
[45:24] of doing this show with you. And one of
[45:27] the things I take uh
[45:31] I take credit for as an individual who's
[45:34] who's been fortunate enough to be
[45:36] successful to make money but also
[45:39] flexible and adaptable enough to be able
[45:42] to see that the world is changing and
[45:44] that the metrics that you've used in the
[45:46] past for oh this is a bubble this is
[45:48] just like.com we're in a completely
[45:51] different world and most people that I
[45:53] know that are my age that I've known in
[45:55] the industry a long time that I read on
[45:57] X are so bearish and they've seen this
[46:00] before and I you guys have no idea. You
[46:03] don't have the experience. I mean, we
[46:05] lead the show off that I have 30 years
[46:07] in in in in markets and people may think
[46:10] I'm an idiot. They may think I'm smart.
[46:12] They may the whole gamut and I'm sure it
[46:17] >> everyone can have their opinion. But
[46:18] here's the reality. What you just said
[46:20] and I said both can be true. So, I'm
[46:24] looking at it through the lens of this
[46:26] deal is not going to happen.
[46:28] >> What you said, he wants the deal to
[46:30] happen. He wants this. I believe that,
[46:32] too. Do I also believe he's using social
[46:35] media? Yes. Do I believe Open Door ended
[46:37] up being a huge free marketing campaign?
[46:40] Yes. Do I believe that using digital
[46:43] media, my business is content now.
[46:46] Whether I like it or not, it's what I
[46:47] do.
[46:48] >> And I'm out there trying to help people
[46:50] navigate through this. This is the way
[46:52] I'm going to tie it into something very
[46:54] important to me that again I mentioned
[46:55] yesterday.
[46:57] I think you and I both agree and most of
[46:59] the people I know in crypto that are on
[47:00] the macro side of which there's not many
[47:02] believe the distribution of wealth
[47:04] problem will be handled through what's
[47:06] going on in crypto. And the reason is
[47:09] and I I've only learned this in the last
[47:11] year.
[47:12] Micron is up over eight times or was up
[47:15] over eight times from where it was. And
[47:17] yet no institution that I have met
[47:20] bought in at those levels. Most of them
[47:22] didn't buy in at 200. Retail did. And
[47:26] retail will buy to 400. They'll buy to
[47:27] 500. They'll trade it to 800. They make
[47:30] money. And I know people that have made
[47:32] a lot of money trading this stuff. Now,
[47:34] the quote unquote smart professionals
[47:37] that pronounce themselves as
[47:39] professionals. I've been in this game a
[47:40] long time. I know better than you guys.
[47:42] You guys are all going to lose your
[47:44] money. The reality is that's what
[47:46] attracted me to crypto was my son did
[47:49] 700 and the 70,000 and lost it all. But
[47:52] he lost it all for a different reason.
[47:53] He got involved in names that weren't
[47:55] Bitcoin. He didn't know the rotation
[47:57] aspect. He didn't know. Most good
[47:58] traders know, hey, I'm going to ride
[48:00] semis until they're done. That's why the
[48:02] tools that I create are related to
[48:04] things that only retail traders and
[48:06] traders can get involved in. I don't
[48:08] care what it is. If it's if it's a $100
[48:11] thing and it's going to 800, I want to
[48:13] be long it. And if it falls from 800 to
[48:14] 600, I'm fine. I'll move on to something
[48:16] else and try to find the next wave to
[48:18] catch. That distribution of wealth is
[48:21] going to happen over the course of the
[48:22] next decade where retail is going to be
[48:24] involved. And the reason pension funds
[48:26] and endowments and these guys will never
[48:28] be able to make that kind of money. The
[48:30] way that they tried to make that money
[48:31] was by going into VC, by going into
[48:33] private equity, by going into things
[48:35] that in my opinion are going to be
[48:36] completely disrupted by tokenization. We
[48:38] haven't talked about this, but that was
[48:40] part of what my speech was about. The
[48:41] one thing about tokenization that people
[48:43] have to realize for private markets,
[48:45] bringing transparency and bringing
[48:46] liquidity into markets is not good for
[48:49] private markets in VC where they've been
[48:51] able to sit on things for a long period
[48:53] of time, not have to mark things to
[48:54] market and play a bunch of games with
[48:57] shenanigans to be able to go through it.
[48:58] And that is very attractive to pension
[49:00] funds and endowments and places that
[49:02] don't want to take the career risk of
[49:03] dealing with something like Bitcoin. The
[49:05] only people that can handle the
[49:07] volatility that's going to exist in a
[49:09] tokenized world that are going to be
[49:11] able to handle the volatility in a world
[49:13] of prediction markets in a world of
[49:15] microns and semis and all of this stuff
[49:17] in my opinion is retail because they
[49:19] have the risk they have the training for
[49:20] it. I just don't believe that people and
[49:23] institutions can go through and all this
[49:25] came out of what you just said because I
[49:27] do believe social digital AI agents are
[49:30] changing the world and the reason we did
[49:32] this is because we believe these places
[49:34] are merging. So, the fiat world is
[49:36] merging with the crypto world and it's
[49:38] through AI agents and through AI.
[49:41] >> I could not agree more. What uh what are
[49:43] you going to cover in your video? Anyone
[49:44] who is watching this right now, if
[49:45] you've learned anything from Jordy, go
[49:46] to Jordy Visser on YouTube, subscribe.
[49:49] That is the digital thank you. It's like
[49:51] uh my friend Sam Park calls it a
[49:53] gentleman's digital handshake. You know,
[49:55] you're like, you know, thank you, sir.
[49:56] So, go hit the subscribe button on
[49:58] Jord's channel. But what is your video
[50:00] going to be about this week? So I I'm
[50:02] I'm gonna go through the inflation side
[50:04] in detail. It's going to start with the
[50:06] inflation side. And again, I wrote a
[50:07] paper called running hot in the
[50:09] scarcity. And that's my my thing is that
[50:11] the government wanted this. They got it.
[50:14] They got the earnings. They got all the
[50:16] things they wanted. Well, there's a
[50:17] negative that comes, which is when you
[50:19] haven't built enough things, you're
[50:20] going to have shortages. So I go through
[50:21] that. I do think this means that the
[50:23] stock market is going to go through its
[50:25] next phase of a regime shift. Whether
[50:27] that means the market goes down or the
[50:28] market goes up to me is going to be
[50:30] driven by what happens with rates. It's
[50:32] very important for you guys to
[50:33] understand the rate dynamic because this
[50:35] is something again the administration
[50:36] doesn't have control of. They don't have
[50:38] control of the oil situation. They don't
[50:39] have control of the fertilizer
[50:40] situation. They don't have control of
[50:42] NAPA, of helium, of all of these things.
[50:44] And this just means that in a world
[50:47] where we were dealing with lower
[50:49] inflation, now we're dealing with a
[50:51] world where inflation is above interest
[50:53] rates, which makes the Fed uncertain.
[50:55] And we have a new Fed here coming in
[50:57] where it is very very divisive.
[51:00] Uh
[51:02] you just don't know. So I'm going to
[51:03] cover all of that and then I will go
[51:05] through the areas of the market and what
[51:07] you have to look for in crypto including
[51:09] Dogecoin.
[51:12] >> All right, we'll do it again next uh
[51:14] Saturday. All right, we'll do it again
[51:16] next Saturday.