The AI Boom Is Very BULLISH For Bitcoin

[0:00] So, if I'm right about that, I want to
[0:01] be in gold, I want to be in silver, I
[0:03] want to be in Bitcoin. I bought some
[0:04] Bitcoin. I bought Ethereum because I
[0:06] think tokenization uh reality is going
[0:08] to start to set in the summertime. I
[0:10] don't think enough people are talking
[0:11] about tokenization and what's happening
[0:13] and what they've basically announced to
[0:14] start in July. AI agents are with us.
[0:17] They need food, and that food is not
[0:19] physical food. It is tokens. There's
[0:22] been a shortage. That's what's worked. I
[0:24] think now we're going to run into
[0:25] supply-demand issue, and that's going to
[0:27] be about more inflation than what people
[0:28] expected. And if that's the case, I
[0:31] don't want to be in semis [music] as
[0:32] much as I want to be in power. What's
[0:33] going on, guys? Today we got a great
[0:35] conversation with Jordy Visser. In this,
[0:36] he talks about why your CAPEX is my
[0:38] opportunity. He explains what AI stocks
[0:40] he's excited about. He explains a stock
[0:42] that he just sold 2/3 of his position
[0:44] for the first time, and he explains why.
[0:46] We then talk about Bitcoin, whether
[0:48] Michael Saylor's going to sell Bitcoin,
[0:49] and does it matter or does it not. And
[0:51] then we talk about the Iran war and how
[0:52] that may or may not impact the US
[0:54] economy. This conversation's packed with
[0:56] very unique insights. Jordy even
[0:58] references at one point the alcohol he
[1:00] used to drink in college. Give you a
[1:02] good laugh there as well. And so, I'm
[1:03] very excited for you all to listen to
[1:05] this. There are parabolas happening
[1:07] everywhere in asset prices, and Jordy's
[1:09] here to explain to us why that may be an
[1:10] exciting thing, not a worrisome thing.
[1:12] Here's my latest conversation with Jordy
[1:14] Visser.
[1:15] All right, Jordy, thought I'd go ahead
[1:15] and start the conversation this week is
[1:17] it seems like there is a ton of uh froth
[1:20] and enthusiasm in the stock market.
[1:21] There are assets that are going uh
[1:23] parabolic, dare I say. Um and I think
[1:26] that there's a lot of question, you
[1:27] know, can this continue or are stocks
[1:29] overvalued and there's some big crash? I
[1:31] think you've got a very interesting uh
[1:33] theory as to why we are seeing these
[1:35] like parabola type moves. Can you
[1:37] describe exactly what's going on?
[1:41] Yeah, I think for the things that are
[1:43] parabolas right now, uh
[1:45] they match up with one fundamental
[1:47] reality that's shown up.
[1:50] So, beginning about a year ago, uh and
[1:53] it was May, I wrote I wrote a paper on
[1:55] inference.
[1:57] And for those of you who've listened to
[1:59] this for a while, this is obviously an
[2:02] AI conversation piece, but
[2:04] inference really started to have an
[2:07] impact on things a year ago.
[2:10] And that was when almost every company
[2:13] started in their earnings talking about
[2:15] how inference demand was taking up. Now,
[2:16] inference was because we were we had
[2:19] launched the first reasoning models.
[2:22] So, I want people just again to think
[2:24] about let's go from chatting
[2:27] where the models are just literally
[2:28] regurgitating answers back out to where
[2:30] they're taking more of a thoughtful time
[2:32] period. Once you take longer to think
[2:35] out an answer,
[2:37] you're in the inference mode. And you
[2:39] know, the analogy I've given to people
[2:41] is if you ask someone what 2 + 2 is,
[2:43] they say four without having to spend
[2:45] any energy. If you ask them what 17 * 28
[2:48] is, they got to go through and do take
[2:49] more energy and it takes more time. So,
[2:51] they have to reason through however that
[2:53] means for them.
[2:55] At the end of this year or last year,
[2:57] sorry, when Opus 4.5 was released, we
[3:00] went from inference and reasoning
[3:03] to that same inference and reasoning
[3:04] being about action.
[3:08] And so, again, simplest way for people
[3:10] to think about it, we had chat and now
[3:13] we have co-work and code.
[3:16] Those two buttons or those two toggles
[3:18] on side Claude since everyone now can
[3:20] say they use Claude,
[3:22] uh that's where actions started to take
[3:25] in. We're now these digital employees
[3:27] that are working behind the scenes are
[3:29] are are doing multi-step.
[3:32] That just led to more demand of tokens.
[3:34] So, when you look at beginning of 4.5,
[3:37] you will see a parabola in token usage.
[3:41] You will see a parabola in
[3:44] the revenue, the annualized revenue run
[3:46] rate for for Claude. I mean, now it's up
[3:49] to 44 billion. We're at pace to be at a
[3:52] 100, another 10 times her. So, the
[3:55] parabolas are being formed by the
[3:57] reality by everyone that oh my God, we
[3:59] need more.
[4:01] Now, back in September is when DRAM
[4:03] prices started to go up. That was before
[4:05] Opus 4.5. That was purely from the
[4:07] inference needs and the memory that we
[4:09] needed now.
[4:10] Now, we've moved into the next phase.
[4:12] So, the reason I wrote a paper about
[4:14] Marvell is because we started realizing
[4:17] that oh my gosh, we need optical fiber
[4:19] because this is this is a different sort
[4:21] of data center. This is different
[4:22] inference. We got a lot of stuff going
[4:24] on. It's not just memory, it's action do
[4:27] this memory action do this.
[4:29] So, that's why Corning. We talked about
[4:31] Corning back in November. Look where
[4:32] Corning stock is now. So, these stocks
[4:34] have all gone through this parabola for
[4:37] a very very valid reason, which is
[4:40] the earnings and the build out necessary
[4:42] for the agent world. We didn't know how
[4:44] big it would be. We didn't know how fast
[4:46] the adoption would be. And this is a
[4:48] mistake that people have made
[4:50] continuously since 2013, which is
[4:53] they made it with the mag 7. They made
[4:55] it with Nvidia and after,
[4:57] you know, chat GPT. In the exponential
[4:59] world, things move at an exponential
[5:01] pace.
[5:02] And that is a parabola. So, the IQ going
[5:05] up, the average the annualized run rate
[5:07] going up, adoption going up. There is a
[5:10] fundamental basis for this and before
[5:12] everyone starts to go into this is the
[5:14] dot com bubble,
[5:15] demand is ahead of supply right now and
[5:17] that's the big story. Did you see the
[5:19] clip of Dario Modi sitting on stage
[5:22] talking about why they did the deal with
[5:24] SpaceX? And he basically was like, you
[5:27] know, we planned our business for
[5:29] two or three X and then we went all the
[5:31] way out and said the outlier would be if
[5:33] we could 10 X our business. And he goes,
[5:35] the problem is that we didn't 10 X, we
[5:37] 80 Xed the business.
[5:39] Whenever you have, you know, eight times
[5:42] more than the wildest dreams of the
[5:43] companies who are actually building the
[5:45] products and services,
[5:47] how does an investor, you know, kind of
[5:50] model that out?
[5:51] And this is the issue we're dealing with
[5:54] um
[5:54] I heard someone say this on a podcast
[5:56] yesterday.
[5:57] You went from hockey sticks to poles.
[6:00] Like and that's the way these charts
[6:01] look and that's why for most humans they
[6:04] look and the the more educated they are,
[6:06] the more experience they have, the more
[6:08] books they've read about history, the
[6:09] more they're like, well, this is a
[6:10] bubble. This is ridiculous. Um I just
[6:13] think people have to understand that
[6:16] there's two things that have created
[6:17] this. One is this supersonic tsunami.
[6:21] Again,
[6:22] I think every week we bring it up.
[6:25] I remember saying it on stage at your
[6:27] event like this is a supersonic tsunami.
[6:29] It's disrupting companies on the SAS
[6:31] side, but at the same point it happened
[6:34] so fast out of nowhere that we didn't
[6:37] make the investment. So, if Anthropic is
[6:39] having trouble adjusting, well, they
[6:42] need to create more data centers. They
[6:44] need more supply. So, yeah, they go to
[6:45] Google, they go to Amazon and then they
[6:47] go to xAI.
[6:48] They need the ability to provide the
[6:51] demand what it wants and the easiest way
[6:54] to think about it is if you create a
[6:55] restaurant and all of a sudden you've
[6:57] got a line out the door, well, you need
[6:58] more seats and that takes more
[7:00] construction. That takes getting another
[7:02] building. That's expanding your place.
[7:04] That's what stage we're in right now.
[7:06] So, it's a combination of under
[7:07] investment and under preparedness for
[7:09] something that's moving this fast at the
[7:12] same time as the people that are now in
[7:13] a race because they're worried about
[7:15] obsolescence and whether it's
[7:17] obsolescence at the hyperscaler level
[7:19] like we have to catch up or it's at the
[7:21] Goldman Sachs versus Morgan Stanley
[7:22] versus City Bank versus JP Morgan.
[7:24] They're all in this obsolescence race
[7:26] where you want to make sure that you're
[7:27] building out in a thoughtful manner all
[7:30] of the AI that you can use because the
[7:32] cost of this stuff is going higher and
[7:35] it's having an impact and it's going to
[7:36] have an impact for the foreseeable
[7:37] future
[7:39] uh on supply and in
[7:40] So, one of the things I find very
[7:42] interesting is if you take a company
[7:43] like a Hut 8, maybe, right? They just
[7:45] signed a huge almost $10 billion deal
[7:47] for one of their development sites. And
[7:50] obviously, you know, the stock has done
[7:51] incredibly well. Um if you look in the
[7:53] private market, you then can see that
[7:54] there are tons of these companies that
[7:56] are uh actually not in the data center
[7:59] business. They are in whether it is
[8:01] Bitcoin mining, they're in high um you
[8:03] kind of high uh technology manufacturing
[8:06] or high-performance uh manufacturing
[8:08] type stuff. And now everyone's realizing
[8:10] data centers are hot. And so, what
[8:11] they're starting to do is they're either
[8:12] trying to convert their business to the
[8:14] data center side, right? Hut 8 is good
[8:16] example. They were Bitcoin miners and
[8:17] they have completely transformed. Or
[8:20] I've even seen some deals in the private
[8:22] market where people are saying, "Hey,
[8:22] we're still going to do our
[8:23] high-performance manufacturing thing,
[8:25] but now on that site that is, you know,
[8:27] X thousands of acres, we're also going
[8:30] to put a data center. And that data
[8:32] center is going to help us uh subsidize
[8:35] the cost of doing our high-performance
[8:37] manufacturing or it's going to bring us
[8:39] more capital, etc." So, it's like the
[8:40] trade is hot, and now you see people
[8:42] sprinkling it everywhere. It's not as
[8:44] egregious as like everyone changed their
[8:45] name to blockchain, you know, back 5 6
[8:47] years ago, but it does feel like you're
[8:50] almost going to get
[8:51] um you know, fracturing of attention and
[8:54] capital because people that were trying
[8:56] to do other things are going to start
[8:57] putting the data center in there because
[8:59] they think that can get them, you know,
[9:00] kind of their their ultimate business
[9:01] goal, which I always find fascinating.
[9:03] Yeah, Hut 8 and all of the Bitcoin
[9:05] miners are are interesting for a few
[9:07] reasons. First of all, they're listed as
[9:09] software companies. So, they're within
[9:11] inside the IGV. And uh you know, this
[9:15] weekend I'm going to show charts of just
[9:17] the overlay of crypto equities, Bitcoin
[9:20] miners, and then Bitcoin and Ethereum
[9:24] and software.
[9:26] If you take out the Bitcoin miners, the
[9:28] software names as like an index are
[9:30] still sitting near the lows,
[9:32] uh while the Bitcoin portion is going
[9:34] higher. And And reason is if we go back
[9:36] to the five-layer cake, which we talked
[9:38] about with Jensen Huang,
[9:40] the base of that, which I included in my
[9:43] year capex is my opportunity paper, is
[9:46] chips and energy and power.
[9:50] That's compute. So, everything you're
[9:52] describing with this is compute. So,
[9:53] what did Larry Fink say this, you know,
[9:56] this week?
[9:57] He said, uh, very soon we're going to
[9:59] have compute futures.
[10:01] Compute is a commodity. And it's a
[10:04] commodity because it's the packaging of
[10:06] two pieces of hardware
[10:08] that, again, you're dealing with
[10:11] electrons to try and get bits out,
[10:14] intelligence out, tokens out. And for
[10:16] that, you need power and you need the
[10:18] chips. You need a lot of other component
[10:19] pieces in there for the infrastructure,
[10:21] the cooling and all that. But, really
[10:22] what you need is that. So, when we say
[10:24] compute, Anthropic's looking for
[10:26] compute. And if you're a Bitcoin miner
[10:28] and you have compute because you built
[10:31] something related to crypto, you always
[10:33] have to remember the linkage between
[10:35] artificial intelligence and crypto, the
[10:37] linkage between crypto and code. All of
[10:40] these go together.
[10:42] And again, the reason this is so
[10:43] important,
[10:45] AI agents are coming every day, more and
[10:48] more.
[10:49] And I just keep saying, eventually
[10:51] you'll start to recognize with
[10:53] stablecoins, with tokenization, that the
[10:56] guardrails need to be going at the speed
[10:58] that all of these miners knew needed for
[11:01] what was necessary for crypto. So, the
[11:03] speed of crypto, both on the parabola
[11:06] side, it was the it's the OG of
[11:07] parabolas. Well, now we've got stocks
[11:09] doing parabolas.
[11:11] None of the people I know on Wall Street
[11:12] like Bitcoin. They don't like Micron
[11:15] from 100 now at 650. If they didn't get
[11:17] it at 100, they're certainly not going
[11:18] to buy it now. They're going to wait for
[11:19] it to get back to 550, 450, 350, 250.
[11:23] And this is this like kind of framework
[11:25] of when you're at this point where
[11:26] compute is in shortage, I think you have
[11:28] to decompose what fits the compute side
[11:30] of me and realize that all of those
[11:32] parabolas you're seeing they're related
[11:34] to compute. So there's a couple of
[11:36] things I want to talk through. So let's
[11:37] talk about Roundhill's new DRAM ETF. So
[11:40] these guys basically created a memory
[11:42] ETF. It has gone from zero to five
[11:44] billion in assets in just a couple of
[11:46] weeks. And my understanding of what
[11:49] they're doing is basically there are two
[11:50] companies that are in Asia that US
[11:53] investors had a very hard time getting
[11:54] exposure to. These guys basically now
[11:56] are giving it through swaps exposure,
[11:58] but you can just buy a single ETF and
[12:00] you basically get exposure to this like
[12:01] DRAM trade. Zero to five billion in
[12:04] assets does not happen almost ever in
[12:06] the ETF industry, especially for
[12:09] not a BlackRock or you know some major
[12:12] fund that has very big distribution.
[12:16] What percentage of these companies that
[12:18] are basically fueling or supplying this
[12:21] you know data center AI compute you know
[12:23] bull market do you think are outside the
[12:25] United States? Because it begs the
[12:27] question of like not only is this trade
[12:29] hot and people are obviously pouring
[12:31] capital in, but there is probably a
[12:33] pretty material percentage of the
[12:34] companies that are hard for US investors
[12:36] actually buy exposure to.
[12:38] Well, you can use the recent trade data
[12:40] that came out yesterday uh
[12:42] as kind or maybe it was the day before
[12:44] as the
[12:46] the answer to the question first of all,
[12:47] which is we have huge imports of
[12:50] technology stuff coming in for the AI
[12:53] trade. Huge numbers. I mean so people
[12:56] understand for DRAM you're basically
[12:58] talking about Samsung, SK Hynix, and
[13:01] Micron. Those are your three major
[13:03] choices and two of them yes are in the
[13:05] Korean market. Uh
[13:07] on the flip side to balance out the
[13:09] trade, we're a huge exporter of energy,
[13:11] especially now with Iran. So that's
[13:13] what's kind of balanced out. We have
[13:15] tremendous enormous imports coming in
[13:18] related to the
[13:19] the data center build out and all the
[13:21] things we need for for compute. And it's
[13:23] not just that, it's it's things for
[13:24] phones, it's things for computers.
[13:26] Everything that's AI related we're we're
[13:28] getting a lot of it from overseas. And I
[13:30] don't want people to think about that
[13:31] this is just related to DRAM. It's a lot
[13:34] more things. Nvidia is doing deals
[13:35] throughout Korea
[13:37] for heavy electronics. I mean, they're
[13:39] rolling out Vera Rubin, they're still
[13:40] rolling out Blackwell, and that brings a
[13:42] lot of needs on the power side that we
[13:44] just don't have here. Um at the same
[13:46] point, if you need gas turbines, two of
[13:48] the major companies, Siemens and
[13:50] Mitsubishi, they're outside. Japan has a
[13:52] huge export side that's to the US, too.
[13:53] So, there's a lot of companies that if
[13:56] if people are looking to get
[13:57] concentrated risk. So, remember,
[13:59] as much as I want to say, "Oh, yeah, we
[14:00] need access to these." Well, you can get
[14:02] access to them in the Korean ETF. They
[14:05] want concentrated access to DRAM. And to
[14:08] be honest with you, uh
[14:09] you know, I've called this benchmark
[14:10] arbitrage. It if you're an RIA, if
[14:13] you're a mutual fund, if you're a
[14:14] pension fund,
[14:15] they're all benchmarked. And right now
[14:17] the benchmarks are wrong. So, the other
[14:19] angle of supersonic tsunami is it
[14:22] creates these parabolas because the
[14:23] dollar's flowing in are enor- enormous.
[14:25] I'll keep saying it every time. Jensen
[14:26] Huang has said to everyone, "The build
[14:28] out's going to be 90 trillion over the
[14:30] next decade." Like, those are massive
[14:32] numbers, and it's basically a rotation.
[14:34] We're getting rid and we're allowing
[14:36] every old car that doesn't have AI in it
[14:38] to be gone, and we'll [clears throat] be
[14:39] replacing it with a new car that's AI.
[14:41] It'll take a decade for all of those
[14:43] cars to recycle. Same thing will happen
[14:45] with appliances. Same thing will happen
[14:47] with phones. Same thing will happen with
[14:48] computers. It won't happen
[14:50] in 1 year. It'll happen spread out over
[14:53] a while. The data centers, it takes a
[14:54] long time to build the data centers. So,
[14:56] everyone that's kind of caught in this
[14:58] thinking, "Okay, it's not there." I'm
[15:00] going to bring it up again and again
[15:01] because I'm sick of reading these
[15:03] self-absorbed people who believe, "I've
[15:06] seen bubbles. I know what they look
[15:07] like. This is a bubble."
[15:09] Yes, this looks like a bubble, and just
[15:11] like
[15:12] just like everyone who went to college
[15:14] has that alcohol they don't drink
[15:15] anymore because it brings back that bad
[15:17] memory, parabolas bring back bad
[15:19] memories to people. And so, you hear the
[15:21] phrase
[15:22] "I've seen this before. Retail doesn't
[15:24] know what this is. This is a bubble.
[15:26] This is tulips." I think people have to
[15:28] just deal with this is a structural
[15:29] thing and instead of having crashes
[15:31] where everyone loses their job and it
[15:33] takes 4 years to go back to highs, that
[15:35] allows every smart person to buy things
[15:38] at value when the people that are
[15:39] dependent on credit have to sell their
[15:41] stuff. This is a different retail
[15:43] situation. Anyone wants a job can get a
[15:45] job. It may not be the job you want, but
[15:47] you can get a job. If you can get a job,
[15:49] that means you still have income coming
[15:50] in the door.
[15:51] Okay, that means you can still make your
[15:53] payments. You can still go through this,
[15:55] but you're living paycheck to paycheck.
[15:56] That is very different than losing 4
[15:58] million jobs in a year and you can't
[16:00] spend any money and now you're in a
[16:01] different situation. These are all
[16:03] different and instead of having crashes
[16:05] that last a long time,
[16:06] we've had a cra- we had a crash last
[16:08] year. Lasted for weeks.
[16:11] We had a 10% fall this year. It lasted
[16:13] for a little bit of time. We had plenty
[16:14] of stocks that fell 30, 40, 50%. We
[16:17] still have a lot of names that have
[16:19] fallen a lot. Maybe we're not having the
[16:22] crashes we had in the past. Maybe these
[16:24] are just speed crashes. Well,
[16:27] I have long said that there's uh this
[16:29] generation is the volatility generation
[16:31] and there's kind of two types of
[16:32] investors, some that run towards
[16:33] volatility, some that run away. Uh the
[16:35] people who are driving most of the
[16:36] returns are people running towards the
[16:37] volatility. You can look across the
[16:39] market, you know, you just mentioned the
[16:40] last 2 years, the type of volatility. Um
[16:43] but you call it a speed crash. Uh
[16:46] another way that I've thought about this
[16:47] is really what stocks now do are the
[16:50] they gyrate. And the reason why I say
[16:52] gyrate is because it is not, okay, I
[16:55] start at a low price, I go to a high
[16:56] price, I crash, I go sideways for a
[16:58] while and then maybe I recover. You
[17:00] know, there's always the famous like it
[17:01] took 10 years to recover from, you know,
[17:03] XYZ crash throughout history for
[17:05] different names.
[17:06] The gyration to me is really interesting
[17:08] cuz you can go up hundreds of percent,
[17:10] you draw down 50%, then you go back up
[17:11] hundreds of percent and it's just like
[17:13] this constant volatility where the best
[17:16] thing to do is have a thesis, buy the
[17:18] name, and then kind of don't look,
[17:20] right? And it's going to be all over the
[17:21] place, but over a long period of time it
[17:23] continues to go up into the right.
[17:25] Um, is that a fair way to think about
[17:27] this? It's almost like you need the, you
[17:29] know, acceleration and then the crash
[17:31] and the acceleration again and like that
[17:32] is the volatility that gets you the
[17:34] higher prices?
[17:35] So, you've brought up a behavioral
[17:37] comment. Um, I haven't what I'm going to
[17:40] about to say to this because I I
[17:42] I didn't
[17:43] just popped into my head and that
[17:44] happens sometimes.
[17:47] The difference between um, younger
[17:48] people
[17:50] and let's say people in in their
[17:53] 50s and 60s.
[17:56] There's a reason why they had to speed
[17:57] up baseball. They had to put a clock on
[17:59] the pitcher, okay?
[18:01] There's a reason why all of a sudden
[18:02] football inside or the football scores
[18:05] are now in the 50s regularly. Uh,
[18:08] there's a reason why when you say
[18:11] today's news like they forget about
[18:13] what's happening and move on to the next
[18:15] >> Remember Maduro?
[18:16] >> [laughter]
[18:16] >> That and that's what I mean. It's like
[18:18] um, Tik Tok i- i- is the right length
[18:21] for a video. Like
[18:23] attention deficit disorder, which is
[18:24] something that I absolutely Yeah, me and
[18:27] you. Yeah, as a kid Are we the ADD boys?
[18:29] >> Yeah,
[18:30] >> [laughter]
[18:30] >> and then so
[18:32] I was put into emerging markets. It was
[18:34] the perfect place for me. Interesting.
[18:36] Bull market. Oh, next day bear market.
[18:38] Oh, world's going to end. And so, I
[18:39] traded my way through emerging markets.
[18:41] So, it's the reason why my daughter
[18:42] said, "Okay, you are the world's oldest
[18:46] millennial. I've you you've acted you
[18:48] like you move on." It's the reason why I
[18:49] got involved with
[18:51] I when I got to Morgan Stanley, trust
[18:54] me,
[18:55] to move to the level I did
[18:57] in the time that I did
[18:59] as a son of a construction worker who
[19:00] went to Manhattan College and graduated
[19:03] I mean, I was not young when I graduated
[19:05] college. Like this was not a thing for
[19:07] me. But to move up to the ladder, part
[19:09] of it was
[19:11] I didn't have anything to lose. Mhm. And
[19:14] I think that is one of the things that
[19:16] separates retail from again, the
[19:18] self-absorbed
[19:20] pontificators and acts that say this is
[19:22] a bubble, that say everyone's going to
[19:23] lose all their money.
[19:25] We have will have falls of 20, 30%. I'm
[19:28] I'm guaranteeing you that at some point
[19:29] I've gotten rid of 2/3 of my Micron. So,
[19:31] everyone who's been involved watching
[19:33] this show since I first mentioned
[19:34] Micron, 2/3 of it is now gone. You sold
[19:37] You sold it clear. We always talk about
[19:38] things that people are buying. But you
[19:40] sold 2/3 of your Micron what?
[19:42] >> This week. It's already higher than as
[19:44] of this morning when we did this. It's
[19:45] already higher than it was when I sold
[19:46] it. So, I'm not like making some call
[19:48] that this went down and it's going down.
[19:50] The reason I sold out of it is not
[19:52] because I think it's coming down. Do I
[19:53] think it might fall 20, 30%? Yeah. To be
[19:56] honest with you, if it did, I would
[19:57] probably buy it again cuz it is way too
[19:59] cheap for the view that I have. So, when
[20:01] people sit there and say this stuff is
[20:04] going to fall, just ask them one
[20:05] question. What is your view on AI over
[20:08] the next 5 years? Instead of telling me
[20:10] that this poll is going to fall, do you
[20:12] use AI? What's your view on it? Do you
[20:13] think agents are going to be in here?
[20:15] Just ask them the questions. Because at
[20:17] least when I have this conversation, I'm
[20:18] selling DRAM not because I have any
[20:20] negative thoughts about where AI is, but
[20:23] because the DRAM thing bothers me in
[20:25] terms of how much money has moved into
[20:27] it. The fact that SK Hynix has a two
[20:29] times ETF in a Hong Kong that is like
[20:33] one of the biggest in the Hong Kong
[20:34] market. That just means I think
[20:36] everyone's in it. And my guess is is
[20:39] that over the next 6 months,
[20:42] it's probably higher.
[20:44] It could be lower, but if I had to
[20:45] guess, I'd say it's somewhere around
[20:47] where it is now.
[20:48] So, where did I put my money if I sold
[20:49] it? Well, that went into silver, which
[20:51] has fallen significantly and to me is
[20:54] starting to go into the next regime. So,
[20:56] the regime I've talked about and the way
[20:57] that I move my money is I think we're
[20:59] entering a new regime within AI. So,
[21:01] AI's going to have cycles. At some point
[21:04] instead of recessions and crashes, you
[21:06] know what we're going to run into? It's
[21:07] bottlenecks. And when the bottlenecks
[21:09] happen, the volume of sales might
[21:12] actually come down for the an earnings
[21:14] period. And that's what I think may
[21:15] happen is maybe the first quarter of
[21:17] this massive earnings we've seen is the
[21:20] hoarding that happened with inside
[21:21] hardware and semis. And that once they
[21:23] get it, they have to wait for the data
[21:25] centers to be built, which is taking
[21:26] longer than expected, and they're not
[21:28] using it as much. Will they continue to
[21:30] buy it? I'm not really sure. DRAM prices
[21:32] did peak. So, I'm making a rational
[21:34] argument for me that it does feel like
[21:37] too much retail might be in here now,
[21:39] and that they're going to move their
[21:40] attention to something else, which is
[21:42] where I think inflation is going to be
[21:43] in real rates are going to be stuck at
[21:46] again, negative levels. We'll have
[21:47] inflation above rates. If I'm right
[21:49] about that, I want to be in gold, I want
[21:51] to be in silver, I want to be in
[21:52] Bitcoin. I bought some Bitcoin. I bought
[21:54] Ethereum because I think tokenization
[21:56] reality is going to start to set in in
[21:58] the summertime. I don't think enough
[22:00] people are talking about tokenization
[22:01] and what's happening and what they've
[22:02] basically announced to start in July. AI
[22:05] agents are with us. They need food, and
[22:08] that food is not physical food. It is
[22:10] tokens. There's been a shortage. That's
[22:12] what's worked. I think now we're going
[22:14] to run into supply demand issue, and
[22:16] that's going to be about more inflation
[22:17] than what people expected. And if that's
[22:19] the case, I don't want to be in semis as
[22:21] much as I want to be in power.
[22:23] Today's episode is brought to you by
[22:25] Arch Public. [music] I absolutely love
[22:27] these guys. Arch Public is an agentic
[22:28] trading platform that automates the
[22:30] buying and selling of your preferred
[22:31] crypto strategies. [music]
[22:33] Using sophisticated algorithms like the
[22:34] intelligence, arbitrage, and Oracle
[22:36] protocols, Arch Public executes advanced
[22:39] automated crypto strategies fully
[22:40] customized [music] to your goals. Is
[22:42] your aim to accumulate Bitcoin during
[22:44] market dips, generate profits from
[22:46] Ethereum volatility, or sell Solana or
[22:48] XRP in layers as it reclaims all-time
[22:50] highs?
[22:50] >> [music]
[22:51] >> If so, Arch Public is built for you. Are
[22:54] you worried about doing it alone? No
[22:55] problem. Arch Public [music] provides
[22:57] everyone, yes, everyone, with hands-on
[23:00] dedicated support from their concierge
[23:02] team to help implement the strategy that
[23:04] you choose.
[23:05] >> [music]
[23:05] >> As a preferred trading partner of
[23:06] Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, and Gemini,
[23:09] Arch Public offers a proven track record
[23:11] of security and performance so that you
[23:13] can trade with confidence.
[23:14] >> [music]
[23:14] >> Sign up today at archpublic.com
[23:17] and start your automated trading
[23:18] strategy for free.
[23:19] >> [music]
[23:19] >> No catch, no hidden fees, just smarter
[23:22] trading. Your crypto, your exchange,
[23:24] [music] your profits. Arch Public. Go to
[23:26] archpublic.com
[23:28] and tell them I sent [music] you.
[23:30] Kevin O'Leary has a data center project
[23:34] in Utah. And it's not clear to me. Kevin
[23:36] is a friend of mine. I like to give him
[23:37] a hard time. He is I believe 71 years
[23:40] old. He looks like he's 19 years old.
[23:41] He's got a fresh face, you know.
[23:44] Uh he's very entertaining. Nice movie
[23:45] star.
[23:46] Yeah. Well, listen, he he's a movie star
[23:48] now, you know, he gets on
[23:50] he he uh
[23:51] he he he
[23:52] uh whacked
[23:53] uh uh Chalamet with a uh with a paddle
[23:55] in the movie, you know. He's he's he's
[23:56] he's doing his thing. Um but he's got
[23:58] this data center project. And I don't
[24:00] know how involved he is versus he's
[24:01] funding it versus, you know, he's
[24:03] actually working on the the specifics.
[24:05] But it is something like uh two and a
[24:07] half times the size of Manhattan.
[24:09] How big this thing, right? And there was
[24:12] a video that went viral recently of a
[24:14] couple hundred local citizens showed up
[24:16] to like the city commission meeting. And
[24:18] they're yelling and screaming and you
[24:19] know, having a blast basically
[24:20] protesting, "We don't want this thing in
[24:22] our community."
[24:23] I posted a video about this online. And
[24:26] I was shocked at how uh controversial
[24:30] the two sides are or how much they
[24:31] disagree. There's one side, which I'm
[24:33] sympathetic to, which is um hey, we need
[24:36] data centers. We people want
[24:38] intelligence. They want to use these
[24:39] products. We don't have enough power. We
[24:41] don't have enough compute. We need to
[24:42] build this stuff out. And these things
[24:44] pay taxes in your local community.
[24:46] There's evidence that like a Loudoun
[24:48] County actually the property taxes are
[24:49] pretty low because the data centers pay
[24:50] so much. There's job creation and
[24:52] companies and all this kind of stuff.
[24:54] On the other side of the debate, which
[24:56] I'm also sympathetic to, is there's a
[24:58] lot of concerns about, "Hey, is my
[24:59] electricity prices going to go up? Is
[25:00] the water supply going to be affected?"
[25:02] The data centers are ugly, right? They
[25:05] don't create as many local jobs once the
[25:06] construction's done, right? And so,
[25:08] like, I kind of look at this and I say,
[25:10] I see both sides as to why we get to
[25:12] this debate.
[25:13] I tend to think that technology wins
[25:15] out, and the data centers will get
[25:16] built, and, you know, we'll kind of keep
[25:18] going. But, do you think that the like
[25:21] local community protest will actually
[25:24] slow development? Cuz everyone's talking
[25:26] about technology and hardware and power
[25:27] generation, like those being the
[25:29] bottlenecks. But, is there like a social
[25:31] layer that we should be talking about as
[25:33] well that may actually lead to slower
[25:35] development of some of this?
[25:38] So, the it already is slowing things. Um
[25:40] and that's just So, the protests and the
[25:43] regulations are just one part. I mean,
[25:45] gas turbines are slowing it. Labor,
[25:47] can't find enough electricians, enough
[25:49] plumbers. Uh cooling equipment is
[25:50] slowing it. Memory is slowing it. Um all
[25:53] of these things are going to slow it.
[25:55] The The thing is, things going slower is
[25:58] not always, um a bad thing.
[26:00] Uh you I you know, I think to control
[26:05] inflation, to be honest with you,
[26:07] the spending is being done by people
[26:09] with unlimited amounts of money. And I
[26:10] know people want to look at these free
[26:12] cash flow charts and be like, "Oh my
[26:13] god, they don't have any more money.
[26:14] They're going to cancel buying." Or
[26:15] OpenAI is canceling deals or not OpenAI
[26:18] just raised $122 billion. Is that Is
[26:20] that a lot? Yeah. And and they're about
[26:22] to do a public raise where I I don't
[26:24] know if
[26:25] >> they take out another hundred Like,
[26:26] we're talking about an enormous amount
[26:28] of money. So, um
[26:30] I I I just think people are going to
[26:32] have to deal with the fact that the data
[26:34] centers are probably going to take a lot
[26:36] longer than what people expect. And this
[26:39] is only the supply disruptions we've
[26:41] seen so far.
[26:42] You know, I'm going to say this again
[26:43] and again,
[26:45] the agent world came out of nowhere.
[26:46] DRAM prices went through the roof.
[26:50] We have a problem with inventories in
[26:51] oil if people haven't noticed. Um
[26:54] so rather than get into the doom and
[26:56] gloom portion, which again um
[26:59] everyone in the oil space seems to want
[27:01] to scare the hell out of people. The
[27:03] reality is we do have uh lower
[27:06] inventories, which means we're probably
[27:08] going to have higher prices for longer
[27:10] than what was expected, definitely than
[27:12] at the beginning of the year. The
[27:13] December crude price as of this morning
[27:16] was up around 77. Last you know, at the
[27:18] end of last year it was less than 60. So
[27:20] you're talking about out to December
[27:22] assuming that the futures prices, which
[27:24] I think are too low,
[27:26] you're talking about a very high level
[27:28] of of of energy change. Silver prices,
[27:31] despite the fact that they've corrected,
[27:33] they're significantly above where they
[27:34] were. I could go on and on in this.
[27:36] You're going to see food prices that are
[27:37] up significantly. I mean, I'm going to
[27:38] show a chart this weekend that basically
[27:40] overlays gas at the pump
[27:43] to food prices, ag prices going back to
[27:45] 2000. It's a It's almost a one-for-one
[27:47] correlation. And in prize, we're going
[27:49] to have severe food prices in the second
[27:51] half of the year. And the reason it
[27:53] doesn't happen immediately is because
[27:55] we're still living off of food from
[27:57] whatever the case. We've just planted.
[28:00] The fertilizer costs are significant,
[28:03] and that means that prices are going to
[28:05] be higher. The The trucking situation,
[28:08] rates are higher. So you're going to
[28:10] have a situation in my opinion,
[28:12] you know, where we've differed where I
[28:14] think people are underestimating the the
[28:16] permanence of inflation on the commodity
[28:18] side, and that also spreads to the
[28:20] shortages we are still going to have
[28:21] remaining on the memory and the compute
[28:23] side of which you're competing. So we've
[28:25] seen phone prices uh phone sales,
[28:29] computer sales go down. And so I don't
[28:31] know how this stuff is going to work
[28:33] itself out in the near term. That all
[28:34] fits into this equation of the data
[28:36] centers are going to be delayed.
[28:38] Everyone is getting negative on AI, not
[28:40] just because of the data centers, but
[28:42] because of the inflationary pressures
[28:43] that are all being lumped into it. And
[28:45] if you don't think this is going to be
[28:47] part of the midterm dialogue when we're
[28:49] in the summertime and we're getting into
[28:50] the heart of like this issue, of course
[28:52] it is.
[28:54] AI has obviously had an impact on these
[28:57] businesses. We talk a lot about like how
[28:59] we get the AI, but I think if we talk
[29:01] about, you know, what what is happening
[29:02] with AI in terms of these companies,
[29:04] um in the last 72 hours, we have seen a
[29:08] number of very large layoffs.
[29:11] Almost every single one of them
[29:12] reference AI to some degree. Um
[29:15] I find it funny because some of these
[29:17] companies you look at their underlying
[29:18] metrics and you're like, oh, wait a
[29:19] second. Hold on. I think it has more to
[29:21] do with, you know, just the industry is
[29:22] not doing as well or the company is, you
[29:24] know, trying to
[29:25] uh right-size its unit economics or
[29:27] whatever, but they are referencing AI.
[29:30] Is this just going to be cover?
[29:32] And now people can go lay off, you know,
[29:34] 10, 15, 20% of their uh company, which
[29:36] they should have done already, but now
[29:38] they've got an excuse to do it and
[29:39] everyone kind of just like, oh, okay,
[29:41] it's AI and therefore we should expect
[29:43] uh a lot more job loss because of it? Um
[29:46] I I think rather than
[29:48] >> [gasps]
[29:49] >> there's no doubt that AI is is the
[29:51] direct cause. So, I'm going to go out
[29:52] and say that anyone that's minimizing
[29:54] AI, yes, companies may have over hired
[29:57] with people. All well and good, but
[29:59] the cost of AI, of Anthropic in your
[30:02] business, it's going higher. So, if
[30:03] you're going to use AI, which every
[30:05] company that's going to be around in the
[30:06] next decade has to be using artificial
[30:08] intelligence, the cost of adoption has
[30:11] gone through the roof. And so, when they
[30:13] realize, okay,
[30:15] I need AI.
[30:17] Well, you can't all have it on the
[30:18] cloud, so that means you need new
[30:20] servers, you need this, you need that.
[30:22] And by the way, there's no Mac Minis,
[30:24] there's no this. So, when you start
[30:25] looking at server costs and you go to
[30:27] Dell and you go to HPE and then you go
[30:30] to Cisco, we have shortages in all this
[30:32] stuff. The component pieces are going up
[30:33] in value. So,
[30:35] the physical constraints of the world
[30:37] where we under invested. I mean, Cisco
[30:39] didn't think there'd be a need for
[30:41] massive routers again because we were in
[30:43] the cloud. It's only because AI can't be
[30:46] in the cloud to do the thinking that it
[30:48] needs to be in the physical locations.
[30:51] And so for every company, and this is a
[30:53] big company problem,
[30:55] they're going to lay off people because
[30:56] they need to use that to pay for the
[30:59] build out and hope that they get the
[31:01] return on the benefits that come from
[31:03] AI.
[31:05] I I'm a little bit worried um and I it's
[31:08] only as as a power user,
[31:11] it is very hard for me to see how easy
[31:13] it'll be for these companies to really
[31:15] find a way
[31:17] to get the true margin benefits from
[31:19] this when they when they get rid of the
[31:21] people, but the numbers are so big. Cuz
[31:23] if you get rid of 10% of your workforce,
[31:25] a lot of these companies you're talking
[31:27] about billions of dollars of
[31:28] compensation, and that means they have a
[31:30] lot of money to spend both on, you know,
[31:33] the physical build out, and then you
[31:36] hope that they get the money through. My
[31:38] guess is those those
[31:40] job costs are to help them, but they're
[31:42] happening
[31:44] in a numbers basis that's not going to
[31:46] impact the job situation at the
[31:48] aggregate level. I mean, we got the
[31:49] payroll numbers today. It was a positive
[31:51] number.
[31:52] Wages aren't positive. They're at the
[31:54] lowest level since the COVID situation.
[31:56] So, I just think when we go through
[31:58] this, you're going to be in a a
[32:00] psychologically depressing
[32:03] position for anyone
[32:05] who's trapped in companies where they're
[32:07] not having upward mobility. So, it
[32:09] really makes the distribution of wealth
[32:10] problem again worse. A company that was
[32:13] trapped was
[32:15] formerly MicroStrategy, now known as
[32:17] Strategy. They have employed a brand new
[32:19] Bitcoin strategy. You like that
[32:21] transition, huh?
[32:22] >> Yeah, I did, right? It's very nice. Um
[32:23] and then speaking of psychological uh
[32:26] impact, another transition.
[32:28] Um
[32:29] Michael Saylor recently
[32:31] explicitly said he may sell some Bitcoin
[32:34] to fund dividends.
[32:36] Um
[32:37] surprisingly, the price of Bitcoin was
[32:39] higher 24 hours later, not lower.
[32:42] Is that cuz people don't care? Is that
[32:44] cuz the market already figured he'd have
[32:46] to sell Bitcoin at some point? Or are we
[32:49] now being driven higher by something
[32:51] other than Michael Saylor and and those
[32:54] types of companies buying Bitcoin?
[32:57] If you ask me why something moves, you
[32:59] which you seldom do,
[33:01] I'll always say the same thing. On any
[33:03] given day, who knows what's going on.
[33:05] Um I have a theory why Bitcoin's going
[33:07] higher.
[33:08] No inside information, but I have I have
[33:10] a uh
[33:12] strong theory.
[33:14] Here, you give your theory first.
[33:17] The US government.
[33:18] >> [laughter]
[33:19] >> Is this a theory or a conspiracy theory?
[33:22] No, no, no. Okay.
[33:24] >> [snorts]
[33:24] >> I'm putting pieces together. Okay.
[33:26] Connecting dots. Good.
[33:27] >> So, uh I think there's two different
[33:29] White House officials who have said that
[33:31] there will be an announcement or about
[33:32] the strategic Bitcoin reserve in a few
[33:33] weeks.
[33:34] There seems to be a persistent bid in
[33:36] Bitcoin
[33:37] that would suggest that someone is
[33:38] aggressively buying Bitcoin. Most people
[33:40] assume that Saylor is that buyer.
[33:43] I think [snorts] he's probably part of
[33:44] it.
[33:45] But if in a couple of weeks we find that
[33:47] the US government has accumulated more
[33:49] Bitcoin and been purchasing in the open
[33:50] market, that would explain why Bitcoin
[33:54] has gone from 74, 75,000 to 80 to 82,000
[33:58] in, you know, a short period of time is
[34:01] that having that persistent bid there
[34:04] would be a big driver, especially they
[34:05] need to accumulate, you know, billions
[34:07] of dollars of Bitcoin in order to make
[34:08] it impactful.
[34:10] I don't know that to be true, whatever,
[34:12] but just like hey, we have an
[34:13] announcement coming and Bitcoin is
[34:15] trading up.
[34:17] Maybe it's people thinking that the
[34:18] government's buying and they're
[34:19] front-running or something, right? But
[34:20] just like there seems to be something
[34:22] related to that government announcement
[34:24] that uh may be a leading indicator of
[34:26] why Bitcoin's going higher.
[34:27] >> [snorts]
[34:28] >> Yeah, I I You're not You're not
[34:30] convinced.
[34:30] >> No, no, no. I I think if the government
[34:33] was in there
[34:34] buying, um,
[34:36] it would act very different than it
[34:38] does. Um, here's what I think is going I
[34:41] I think there'd be more of a bid to it
[34:43] than you think. For one thing,
[34:46] this government, there tends to be a lot
[34:48] of leaks.
[34:51] So, I'm just going to
[34:52] >> Polymarket or Couchie ads leaking. Yeah,
[34:55] I I think there'd be a big change. Here
[34:57] Here's something that's happened that
[34:59] people should um
[35:01] Jordi, it's just information making its
[35:02] way to the market. What are you talking
[35:04] about?
[35:04] >> [laughter]
[35:05] >> Yeah. I mean, the good thing is Bitcoin
[35:07] bottomed at 60,000. It's now at 80.
[35:11] I can I can do math fairly well. It's
[35:12] 33% move for you and me. That's a big
[35:15] move. It's better than the stock market.
[35:17] So, we'll leave that alone. Um, here's
[35:19] what I think is important news for
[35:21] people to recognize.
[35:23] The
[35:25] BlackRock ETF
[35:27] shares outstanding
[35:29] all-time highs.
[35:31] All-time highs. So, it's higher than
[35:34] when it was 126,000.
[35:38] That means that in a what is considered
[35:41] a bear market to most people I most most
[35:44] podcasts I listen to in crypto, it's
[35:46] amazing how much this four-year cycle
[35:48] like it'll never die. We're in the
[35:49] middle of the four-year cycle. It's not
[35:51] going to end until the end of the year.
[35:52] And I'm like, "Oh my god, I got to
[35:53] listen to this forever." Whatever the
[35:55] case is. It's like the boogeyman's
[35:57] around. Yeah, it's the four-year cycle.
[35:58] Well, the boomers because that's what
[36:01] the BlackRock ETF is the boomers, okay?
[36:05] The wealth managers.
[36:07] Morgan Stanley creates a I mean, if you
[36:10] go
[36:10] >> Morgan Stanley's over 200 million in
[36:11] like 2 weeks. And if you go through
[36:14] where we were at the beginning like the
[36:16] boomers are buying it. They're adding it
[36:18] to asset allocation. So, my whole story
[36:20] about this
[36:23] IPO type thing where the OGs are getting
[36:26] out and they're transferring ownership
[36:28] to
[36:29] the boomers?
[36:31] If they're buying during a down move, I
[36:32] just want to let people know when this
[36:34] thing goes higher, they will be buying
[36:36] in an up move. Of course.
[36:38] >> No question. So, they're in. Oh, they
[36:40] chase too, they're not disciplined.
[36:42] Yeah, no, they're Well, here's the thing
[36:43] and again, I'll say it again and again
[36:45] and again and again.
[36:46] The growth asset bucket has died.
[36:49] Private credit not coming back. Private
[36:50] equity not coming back. VC not coming
[36:52] back. SaaS not coming back. You guys can
[36:54] all do what you want. You can try to
[36:55] pick these things. There's a reason why
[36:57] the the ultimate long duration asset,
[37:00] bonds, are uninvestable. These things
[37:03] are not investable in a world
[37:06] where speed is the game.
[37:08] These These are old, illiquid things.
[37:11] >> You sound so much better saying it than
[37:12] me cuz I just say bonds are trash and
[37:14] everyone gets mad at me. You say it in
[37:16] such an eloquent way that, you know,
[37:17] they'll listen to you. Say that again.
[37:18] What What's your problem with bonds?
[37:20] >> even remember what I said. You have If
[37:21] you haven't got this point now, stuff
[37:22] just flies out of my mouth. My brain's
[37:24] really good about it, but if you ask me
[37:25] what I said, I don't even remember. No,
[37:27] no, but but this point of like, okay, a
[37:29] lot of the long duration assets in
[37:31] general, I mean, you just named private
[37:32] credit, private equity, venture capital,
[37:34] bonds, etc.
[37:36] That those things are all under immense
[37:38] pressure right now. And they're under
[37:39] pressure for valid reasons because what
[37:42] AI has done is made people realize that
[37:44] they don't know what the world's going
[37:45] to look like in 3 years. So, why would
[37:46] you make any long duration Mhm.
[37:49] This happened So, corporate credit, the
[37:52] reason we don't have recessions anymore
[37:54] is because we lost the credit angle of
[37:56] this. Meaning, we used to have this
[37:58] contagion that happened because the
[38:00] winners of the prior cycle would have
[38:02] lots of debt. So, if you go back to the
[38:04] Great Financial Crisis, who had all the
[38:06] debt? Well, it was people doing the
[38:07] loans on the housing. Before that, if
[38:09] you go to 2000, it was the dot-com
[38:10] bubble. Well, the period we just went
[38:12] through, the Mag 7 had no debt. Now,
[38:15] they're accumulating debt. The debt is
[38:17] for AI. If we were going to have a
[38:18] recession, yeah, it would make sense if
[38:20] these companies didn't have the demand
[38:22] and they didn't have receivables of $1.3
[38:24] trillion So, sitting there. They need
[38:25] the data centers to get the money. So,
[38:27] we don't have that, but
[38:29] with innovation and with AI, you also
[38:31] don't need people anymore to start a
[38:33] business. You don't need debt or people.
[38:35] So, we're at the ultimate point of like
[38:38] what happens to the capital structure.
[38:39] So, all people that are like, "You know
[38:41] what? I think this company's going to
[38:42] make it in 10 years. I'm going to give
[38:43] them money. I'm a VC. I'm going to give
[38:45] them a lot of money." That's not
[38:46] happening. Not for 10 years. Now, can
[38:48] people find an Anthropic?
[38:50] Yeah. Can they find a Cursor? Yeah, and
[38:52] Cursor, you know, went from a zero to
[38:55] what, 50, 60 billion from XAI. There
[38:57] will be those out there. The question is
[39:00] how much of that company did VC own when
[39:02] it went through there and how much was
[39:04] actually owned by the owner. So, I just
[39:06] think we've disrupted the whole thing.
[39:08] You see a lot of people talking about
[39:09] terminal value. Goldman Sachs wrote a
[39:11] whole thing on terminal value. I just
[39:13] think for people that are long-term
[39:14] investors,
[39:15] we're entering a period where
[39:16] transparency and liquidity is becoming
[39:19] critical because a lot of money is stuck
[39:21] in dormant assets. So, tokenization is
[39:23] actually needed if for no other reason
[39:25] for price discovery for a lot of these
[39:26] things that they're trapped in. It's
[39:28] funny you say that because Anthropic um
[39:31] is trading in the uh like tokenized
[39:34] pre-IPO perp future world. Yeah.
[39:38] Binance Research has a really good
[39:39] report out that shows Anthropic, OpenAI,
[39:43] and
[39:45] um SpaceX
[39:46] are all up on average 88% over the last
[39:49] 6 months in the like pre-IPO perps. And
[39:54] people are just going They're going to
[39:54] find a way to get exposure to this
[39:56] stuff. But
[39:57] I have a um proclamation to make which
[40:00] people are not going to like, but it's
[40:01] true.
[40:02] The Iran war is over.
[40:04] May not technically be over.
[40:06] Psychologically
[40:08] in people's evaluation of what is going
[40:10] on in the stock market, we've been
[40:12] sitting here for almost 45 minutes
[40:13] talking. We've not talked about the Iran
[40:14] war for time.
[40:16] I think that people are like, cool, got
[40:18] it. Happened.
[40:20] It is now memory-holed
[40:22] as a risk.
[40:24] And sure, does it have an impact on, you
[40:26] know, oil or gas or whatever, but people
[40:28] are pretty much like, if it ends
[40:29] tomorrow or not, I don't know how many
[40:31] people would change their portfolio. I
[40:33] don't think it's a big percentage. What
[40:34] do you think?
[40:36] Well, here here's the thing. Um
[40:39] the AI trade is driving everything. Mhm.
[40:41] So, like Whirlpool was down huge this
[40:44] week. And the reason was
[40:47] they said this is the worst appliance
[40:49] market since the Great Financial Crisis.
[40:52] So, I I think as much as we're saying
[40:54] the stock market doesn't care. Well,
[40:56] that's asset owners.
[40:58] People driving trucks care. People in
[41:00] the part of the country where they're
[41:02] living paycheck to paycheck care about
[41:03] gas prices being up at the highest level
[41:05] outside of the great outside of COVID.
[41:08] Um and they're not getting stimmy
[41:10] checks. So, I I
[41:12] as much as I think people want to
[41:13] believe the market doesn't care. There's
[41:15] a lot of parts of the market that are
[41:17] not up that much. If it wasn't for the
[41:18] semiconductor names, which again, you
[41:21] can't do that with the market. This is
[41:22] the reason why you invest in indexes and
[41:24] you passively invest because you're
[41:25] still getting the returns.
[41:29] I I think there's another angle to this,
[41:31] which again, I said at the beginning,
[41:34] you're going to have speed crashes.
[41:36] You're going to have periods where it
[41:37] goes down. I don't think that's going to
[41:38] happen in the stock market this year,
[41:39] but I do think we're at a new regime.
[41:42] And the new regime to me is one where
[41:44] we're going to have a new Fed chair
[41:45] coming in. That's going to be a story in
[41:46] a in in a few weeks. We have Trump going
[41:49] to China. That's going to be a new story
[41:50] in the next couple weeks. And these are
[41:53] going to have an impact on the way
[41:54] people view the market.
[41:56] The commodity hoarding side to me is
[41:57] still in play.
[41:59] The inventories for energy. This is not
[42:01] about
[42:03] is the world going to hit 200 oil and
[42:04] are we going to collapse? Um one thing I
[42:07] want to say, which i- i- is
[42:09] clear
[42:11] and I think it's important for people to
[42:12] recognize that read constantly the doom
[42:15] and gloom from oil.
[42:16] The one thing that no oil person ever
[42:18] talks about when I read this is how
[42:21] we watch the Strait of Hormuz like it's
[42:24] a video game.
[42:26] You couldn't do this 15 years ago.
[42:29] Meaning we didn't have satellite imagery
[42:30] on X of how many boats go through. The
[42:33] reason that's important is just like
[42:35] when you go to a supermarket and they
[42:37] have real-time knowledge of inventory
[42:40] because of technology,
[42:42] so does India, so does Vietnam, so does
[42:44] Australia. They see how many ships are
[42:46] going through and so they make changes
[42:48] to the demand side of the equation. We
[42:50] have absolutely saved millions of
[42:52] barrels a day by the governments going,
[42:55] "Okay, you can only drive your car if
[42:56] your car ends in an even number and and
[42:59] then on Wednesday you guys can go on an
[43:01] odd number. You have to carpool." They
[43:03] find ways to reduce the demand side.
[43:06] That was hard when you didn't have
[43:08] information. So always remember when you
[43:09] connect the digital economy back to this
[43:12] old stuff. In the 1970s, we didn't have
[43:14] that kind of information. So you didn't
[43:16] know exactly how many barrels there were
[43:18] or what kind of inventory. I think
[43:20] everyone has to recognize that we're
[43:22] just in a situation just like
[43:24] Silicon Valley Bank,
[43:26] that when you can see the problem
[43:27] happening and you see all the deposits
[43:29] leaving the banks, the government steps
[43:30] in early and does something. So I just
[43:33] bring that up because there's a
[43:34] different way this plays out. And for
[43:36] the people who don't think inflation is
[43:37] going to be here for the rest of the
[43:39] year, I think you're making a really,
[43:40] really big mistake not anticipating that
[43:43] it's not about the episodic crash. It's
[43:45] more about the duration and the fact
[43:47] that the hoarding and everything is
[43:49] going to be there for a long time now.
[43:51] Today's episode is brought to you by
[43:52] Simple Mining. Bitcoin mining has a
[43:54] reputation for being complicated, risky,
[43:56] and hard to evaluate as a real
[43:58] investment. If you're considering mining
[43:59] in 2026, what actually matters isn't
[44:02] headline profitability. It's uptime,
[44:04] repairs, and whether the operation is
[44:06] run like a real business. That's why
[44:08] I've been using Simple Mining. They're
[44:10] based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, [music] and
[44:11] they run a white-glove hosting operation
[44:14] where you own your miners. You choose
[44:15] your own pool, and you have Bitcoin
[44:17] [music] sent directly to your wallet.
[44:19] They were featured on the Inc. 5000 list
[44:21] as the fastest-growing company in Iowa
[44:23] with over 40,000 machines under
[44:25] management. What stands out to me is
[44:27] execution. They've the number one-rated
[44:29] ASIC repair center, and for the first 12
[44:31] months, [music] repairs are included. If
[44:33] mining margins get tight, you can pause
[44:35] with no penalties. And if you want to
[44:36] resize or upgrade your fleet, there's a
[44:38] marketplace to resell equipment instead
[44:40] of being stuck. To help people think it
[44:42] through whether mining actually makes
[44:43] sense right now, they put together a
[44:45] short resource [music] called the 2026
[44:47] Bitcoin Mining Blueprint. It walks
[44:49] through the five mistakes investors make
[44:50] [music] when allocating to mining, and
[44:52] they also explain how to avoid them
[44:54] before deploying capital. If it sounds
[44:56] interesting to you, you can get it for
[44:57] free at simplemining.io/pomp.
[44:59] [music]
[45:00] That's simplemining.io/pomp.
[45:04] Go check it out today and see if you
[45:05] should get into the mining game.
[45:08] Today's episode is brought to you by
[45:09] Bitget. Bitget is the world's first
[45:12] universal [music] exchange, serving over
[45:13] 125 million users with access to over 2
[45:16] million crypto tokens,
[45:18] and TradFi markets such as 100-plus
[45:20] tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities,
[45:22] [music] FX, and precious metals like
[45:23] gold and silver. They officially opened
[45:25] its TradFi trading suite on January 5th,
[45:28] 2026, [music]
[45:29] and has already hit the milestone of $4
[45:31] billion of daily volume just days later.
[45:34] Users can now trade 79 instruments
[45:36] across global [music] macro assets such
[45:37] as forex, precious metals, indices, and
[45:40] commodities directly with USDT, all
[45:42] within their existing Bitget account.
[45:45] This experience is designed to feel
[45:46] familiar crypto-native traders [music]
[45:47] while opening the door to macro-driven
[45:49] strategies without the need to switch
[45:50] platforms.
[45:52] Users can also enjoy high liquidity
[45:54] [music] and low slippage while trading
[45:57] these assets with up to 500x leverage.
[46:00] The Bitget ecosystem [music] is
[46:01] committed to helping users trade smarter
[46:03] with its AI agent to execute trade
[46:05] orders as a co-pilot.
[46:07] Bitget is driving crypto adoption
[46:08] through [music] strategic partnerships
[46:09] with La Liga and MotoGP.
[46:12] Aligned with its global impact strategy,
[46:14] Bitget has joined [music] hands with
[46:15] UNICEF to support blockchain education
[46:17] for 1.1 million people by 2027.
[46:20] Bitget currently leads in tokenized
[46:21] TradFi market providing the industry's
[46:24] lowest fees and highest liquidity across
[46:26] 150 regions worldwide. [music]
[46:28] Check them out at bitget.com today.
[46:31] That's b i t g e t [music] dot com
[46:34] today.
[46:37] Speaking of grocery stores, did you see
[46:39] the startup, I forget the name of it,
[46:42] um, that just launched where they
[46:44] basically are going to automate the
[46:46] grocery store? And the entire idea is to
[46:48] use technology to understand inventory
[46:50] and all this stuff. And as they're I was
[46:53] watching their kind of announcement
[46:54] video, they had a little demo and they
[46:56] were explaining what they're doing. It
[46:57] is pretty much everything from they're
[46:59] hooked into the POS system, their
[47:01] inventory, it automatically orders new
[47:03] things when it's low, you know, all this
[47:05] stuff.
[47:06] The first thing that popped to mind,
[47:08] grocery stores are going to do surge
[47:09] pricing
[47:10] or dynamic pricing.
[47:12] Because if you walk into [snorts] the
[47:14] grocery store and there are, you know,
[47:17] whatever, 20 different little packages
[47:20] of blueberries, well, whatever the price
[47:22] is should be the price. But if there's
[47:24] only one left and the grocery store
[47:26] knows that we're about to hit 5:00 p.m.
[47:28] on Thursday night and that's when we get
[47:30] a huge influx of people coming home from
[47:31] work, well, if they double the price of
[47:34] that blueberry package,
[47:36] it's probably going to sell.
[47:38] And so grocery stores have very low
[47:40] margins, there's not a lot of technology
[47:42] or intelligence when it comes to this
[47:44] dynamic pricing, etc. And so I'm very
[47:47] torn on that type of idea because on one
[47:49] hand you're like, "Hey, you know, nobody
[47:50] likes change including me."
[47:53] But there's like a gamification also
[47:54] like, "Hey, how do you maybe use that to
[47:56] your advantage and find lower prices at
[47:58] certain times?
[47:59] But the grocery store is only doing it
[48:00] cuz it's going to help them make more
[48:01] money.
[48:02] And so it does feel like we talk about
[48:04] AI from the sense of, you know, is it
[48:05] going to replace human labor? Is it
[48:06] going to do that like
[48:07] AI, machine learning, you know, big data
[48:09] stuff like it's going to come to the
[48:10] grocery store. It's going to come to all
[48:12] these areas and again that is a
[48:14] persistent demand for compute.
[48:17] And it ties it into like how is this
[48:18] stuff going to affect your daily life?
[48:19] Even if you never go to Claude or
[48:21] ChatGPT.
[48:22] Like you may be on the receiving end of
[48:24] the AI in a very weird way, like
[48:26] something like that.
[48:28] Yeah, I there's no way that's going to
[48:29] happen at every grocery store. So maybe
[48:31] at the higher end ones it'll happen. Um
[48:33] and the reason I say that is because I
[48:35] mean don't we have a mayor that's
[48:37] focused on the government running the
[48:39] grocery stores? Well, if you don't know,
[48:42] uh if you go to Venezuela or other
[48:43] countries that have done government-run,
[48:46] they actually have chalkboards for
[48:47] prices. They change it multiple times a
[48:49] day.
[48:50] Not because they have AI.
[48:52] >> [laughter]
[48:53] >> Because they have socialism. Remember
[48:54] that? Remember I remember I lived in
[48:56] Brazil. They had hyperinflation seven
[48:58] years before I was there and all of the
[48:59] people that were there they think they
[49:01] they're some of the smartest traders
[49:02] I've met and they were like, "Yeah, when
[49:03] I was a kid, my parents would send me to
[49:05] the grocery store and I had to go in and
[49:08] the way that we found the the milk to
[49:10] buy was we went deep in the container to
[49:12] look for the one that they did the price
[49:14] tag the longest time ago [laughter]
[49:16] cuz it would be the cheapest cuz they
[49:17] were resetting them every hour so. I I
[49:19] I've I've I've been associated with it.
[49:21] But the reason I bring that up is I I
[49:22] took my kids um two of my kids to the
[49:25] next game this week. And they're both
[49:27] really big fans, but they can't afford
[49:29] to go to the games without me paying for
[49:31] them. What tickets were worth 500 bucks?
[49:33] Uh If you get better seats maybe 1,000?
[49:35] No, they they were 500 bucks a piece.
[49:38] >> yeah. Uh
[49:40] a little bit higher. Um the the reason I
[49:42] bring this up is that's what's happened
[49:44] to sports games. Um now again, that's
[49:47] >> From youth sports all the way up to
[49:48] professional. Now that's entertainment.
[49:50] I view [clears throat] that as a
[49:51] discretionary item.
[49:53] >> Mhm.
[49:53] Um
[49:54] for Groceries are not a discretionary
[49:56] item. So if you've got a kid who's at
[49:58] home with someone who's living paycheck
[50:00] to paycheck and all of a sudden the
[50:01] blueberries are $38 and that kid loves
[50:03] blueberries, I think that can happen in
[50:05] the high-end stores, but I think if this
[50:07] was already going to happen, didn't
[50:09] Amazon Go have the little walk-in pay
[50:11] for everything go? I don't know if those
[50:12] stores are even still open anymore. I
[50:14] try not to hang out there. But but but
[50:15] this is interesting, right? So like
[50:17] if we think of like actual reality on
[50:19] the ground, discretionary spending.
[50:21] Okay, so the tickets are 500 bucks,
[50:23] 1,000 bucks, right? I couldn't go
[50:25] because I was traveling during one of
[50:26] the games, but I looked to see what what
[50:28] were the tickets. And you know, you for
[50:30] those who don't know MSG, there's
[50:31] basically, you know, you've got kind of
[50:32] higher
[50:33] seats. Those obviously are cheaper. As
[50:35] you get closer to the
[50:37] floor, they're more expensive. But some
[50:39] of the tickets, and this is we're not
[50:40] even talking about Eastern Conference
[50:41] Finals. We're talking about, you know,
[50:42] the semifinals.
[50:44] Thousands of dollars for some of these
[50:45] seats. Sold out though, right? Yeah. And
[50:48] so Always. It it's always this thing of
[50:51] like it New York may be somewhat unique,
[50:54] but I think this is happening across the
[50:55] country. Even though the prices are
[50:57] going up and you, me, and everyone
[50:58] watching this or what listening to this
[51:00] are going to complain,
[51:01] they're still sold out. It's kind of
[51:03] like college. Everyone's like, oh, it's
[51:05] $80,000.
[51:07] They turn away 94% of the people who
[51:09] apply.
[51:11] And so there is this
[51:14] you know, kind of recognition of maybe
[51:16] it's actually underpriced given the
[51:18] demand they have.
[51:20] Right? If they add another 10,000 seats
[51:22] to MSG,
[51:23] from a just a pure objective economic
[51:25] standpoint, they probably would sell out
[51:27] the tickets.
[51:29] Yeah, they would. But again, it it gets
[51:31] into the point that the wealth that's at
[51:35] the top end
[51:37] is not a little wealthy. It's super
[51:38] wealthy.
[51:39] And again, the numbers are pretty
[51:41] staggering compared to the bottom
[51:43] 50% in the economy. So, you know, I I've
[51:46] mentioned Joseph Schumpeter on here and
[51:48] I I believe that this is the reason why
[51:52] I created a paywall for people. Um the
[51:54] nicest messages I get from people are
[51:57] how I'm helping them with
[51:59] embracing AI, trying different things,
[52:02] giving some of the tips that I think are
[52:04] important for you to stay ahead of
[52:05] things so you can get a job because if
[52:08] you do know how to use artificial
[52:09] intelligence, you will be able to get a
[52:10] job. There's no question about it. Um at
[52:13] the same time, being involved in the
[52:14] stock market, I I really do think if
[52:17] you're really smart about the way you
[52:19] deal with things and you follow this
[52:20] decade-long $90 trillion that's going in
[52:23] the market and you recognize that a lot
[52:24] of these companies are just not priced
[52:26] properly for that going on,
[52:29] you can have some periods where you
[52:32] don't make money, where we have one of
[52:33] those speed crashes where the market
[52:34] falls and DRAM prices fall, whatever,
[52:36] 20, 30%. Um that is going to happen.
[52:40] But you shouldn't care about the 20 to
[52:42] 30% and you should have a long-term
[52:43] memory and you should be moving into the
[52:45] stuff that is the new story to go in.
[52:47] So, I do think you have to adapt to the
[52:49] environment you're in. The very positive
[52:52] side, and again, to use Micron as an
[52:54] example,
[52:55] the Micron is trading at six times next
[52:59] year's earnings with the growth rate
[53:02] let's assume the smallest it'll be is
[53:04] 60%.
[53:06] Nvidia's earnings are growing at 70% a
[53:09] year. Their multiple is 24.
[53:12] So, PEG ratio,
[53:14] I mean, you don't get these kinds of
[53:15] opportunities to have a company that's
[53:17] growing their earnings at 50, 70% and
[53:20] still have a multiple. Think about where
[53:21] it would be pricing as a startup
[53:22] business. So,
[53:24] the reason it's there and the only
[53:26] reason it's there, and I will tell you
[53:28] this is a fact from I talk to
[53:30] let's assume a couple hundred hedge
[53:32] funds a year and between mutual funds,
[53:35] pension funds. Let's assume that the
[53:36] total amount of institutional people I
[53:38] talk to in a year is a few hundred.
[53:42] They've missed the trade.
[53:45] That's it. Like the majority I've I've
[53:47] not heard people say they they made it.
[53:50] Now, do I know some of them that are in?
[53:52] Yes, it's not zero and 300. But let's
[53:55] assume 100 of them, a third of them have
[53:57] been in semiconductors at a reasonable
[53:59] price. The majority can't buy it at
[54:01] these levels. They're waiting for a
[54:03] pullback or a recession. So I just think
[54:05] people should realize that the reason
[54:07] these things in my opinion are still so
[54:08] cheap is because institutions just won't
[54:11] buy them at these levels. And if they
[54:13] do, they're just buying small amounts. I
[54:15] am looking for Here you go. Um
[54:20] a guy on Twitter named Joseph Jacks.
[54:23] He tweeted out a prediction. So
[54:26] his thought process what he said
[54:27] Anthropic will surpass Alphabet in
[54:30] revenue by mid-2028.
[54:33] He says this is not a bull case or an
[54:34] acceleration scenario. It's a
[54:36] continuation of the curve already in
[54:38] evidence.
[54:39] Anthropic's AR went from a billion in
[54:40] January 25 to 9 billion in December 25
[54:43] to 30 billion in April 2026.
[54:46] And then we're at 44 billion
[54:48] what they're saying.
[54:50] It's a 3.3x step in a single 4-month
[54:53] window and the curve has been
[54:54] steepening, not flattening. Mhm. He says
[54:56] my projection actually assumes
[54:58] deceleration from here. So they'll be at
[55:00] 100 billion by the end of 2026, 340
[55:02] billion in 2027, 850 billion in 2028,
[55:05] and then 1.4 trillion in 2029.
[55:08] And then you cross over with Alphabet
[55:09] happens around somewhere 575 billion
[55:12] dollars or so in mid-2028. Not because
[55:14] Anthropic accelerates beyond today's
[55:15] pace, but because Alphabet, which has
[55:17] been locked in at about 15%
[55:19] year-over-year growth in mature ads and
[55:20] cloud business, cannot match enterprise
[55:23] AI's adoption physics.
[55:25] Do you think something like that could
[55:26] happen? Like does that sound crazy to
[55:28] you just off the the top of hearing it?
[55:31] Do I think it could? Yes.
[55:34] Um
[55:35] I
[55:36] I've kind of I mean that's crazy. Well,
[55:38] it but again, that
[55:40] the reason it's possible is cuz so many
[55:42] people doubt it.
[55:43] I mean, most
[55:45] people think it's a bubble still. I I I
[55:47] hate to say it, but
[55:49] rather than So, a bubble is by
[55:51] definition, they think there's a better
[55:52] entry point. So, I don't think anyone
[55:54] disagrees with AI anymore. I just think
[55:56] buying now makes no sense to them. What
[55:59] you're saying and what or what Joseph is
[56:01] saying is exactly the problem. If that
[56:04] occurs, it's not the size of the
[56:07] numbers,
[56:08] it's the consistency because for that to
[56:10] happen,
[56:11] Micron needs to be higher. Marvell who
[56:14] Ev- everything has to Every everything
[56:15] that has worked needs to be higher
[56:17] because that's the only way that works.
[56:20] Their revenue is completely dependent on
[56:22] those two layers of the stack. So, I
[56:24] will keep saying it again and again.
[56:27] Nobody on the institutional side was
[56:30] ready for this and it got away from them
[56:32] too fast. End of story.
[56:34] Now, if you guys are sitting at home
[56:36] trading these names, again, I've said,
[56:38] "Okay, I've reduced my I didn't say I
[56:40] sold all of it." I'm staying in a third
[56:42] of it and I won't buy any more unless it
[56:44] falls. And the only reason I would buy
[56:46] it if it falls is if there's a panic and
[56:48] I see things going down, I will buy
[56:49] more. I haven't sold
[56:51] anything in Marvell worth anything. So,
[56:53] if anything, I sold 10% and I was just
[56:55] being disciplined, but again, I moved
[56:57] that money into things that I think will
[56:58] outperform. But if you ask me, Marvell
[57:01] is still something that I think will
[57:02] outperform Micron from here. There's
[57:03] other stocks like in Infineon and other
[57:06] power semi names which are just starting
[57:08] to me. And the reason they're just
[57:10] starting is cuz I'm looking at the
[57:12] phones, the computers, the cars,
[57:15] then the humanoids, all the modern
[57:17] warfare. Silver to me is a no-brainer
[57:20] for me. If people want to get involved
[57:21] in it, that's great. I I just think this
[57:24] build that's going to happen because I
[57:25] believe the anthropic either anthropic
[57:27] will get those numbers or someone else
[57:29] will. I'm laughing because I know people
[57:31] at home are hearing you start to throw
[57:33] out names of companies like more Jordy
[57:34] more more give us the names.
[57:37] >> Go to the subscriber site. [laughter]
[57:38] You guys can see whatever you want. What
[57:40] a pro what a pro what's the website?
[57:44] >> [laughter]
[57:45] >> Just type in Jordy Visser AI macro
[57:48] Nexus. You'll find whatever you need.
[57:51] All right, what's going to be in this
[57:53] week's video?
[57:55] It's going to focus a lot on
[57:58] on parabolas and and again, I want to
[58:01] make sure that I highlight to people who
[58:03] are worried
[58:05] that are reading from
[58:07] legitimate people. These people have
[58:08] been through markets for a long time and
[58:10] maybe they're right. It did feel a
[58:12] little
[58:14] bubbly this week in terms of DRAM. But
[58:17] again, I think there's a couple ways for
[58:19] this to happen and maybe they just
[58:20] underperform software went up this week
[58:22] cuz you got some good earnings from data
[58:24] dog and Fortinet like there's some
[58:27] companies in the cyber and the analytics
[58:30] side that are separating themselves from
[58:32] the Adobes and the the seat based
[58:34] software names. So maybe software goes
[58:36] higher and semis kind of underperform
[58:39] for a period of a month or two.
[58:41] I'm
[58:42] going to cover a lot of that, but I'm
[58:44] really going to go through how important
[58:45] Nvidia is. We're going to have the China
[58:48] US meeting which
[58:50] believe it or not is not getting enough
[58:52] attention, especially since the straight
[58:54] is still shut. I'm going to cover a
[58:56] little bit of all of that and whatever
[58:58] else I can go through for people. All
[59:00] right, go to Jordy Visser on YouTube go
[59:03] and subscribe there or Jordy Visser AI
[59:06] macro Nexus research as well.
[59:09] Talk to you guys next week.