The AI Boom Is Very BULLISH For Bitcoin

[0:00] If I'm right about that, I want to be in
[0:01] gold. I want to be in silver. I want to
[0:03] be in Bitcoin. I bought some Bitcoin. I
[0:05] bought Ethereum because I think
[0:06] tokenization uh reality is going to
[0:08] start to set in in the summertime. I
[0:10] don't think enough people are talking
[0:11] about tokenization and what's happening
[0:13] and what they've basically announced to
[0:14] start in July. AI agents are with us.
[0:17] They need food and that food is not
[0:20] physical food. It is tokens. There's
[0:22] been a shortage. That's what's worked. I
[0:24] think now we're going to run into a
[0:25] supply demand issue and that's going to
[0:27] be about more inflation than what people
[0:28] expected and if that's the case I don't
[0:31] want to be in semis as much as I want to
[0:32] be in power. What's going on guys? Today
[0:34] we got a great conversation with Jordi
[0:36] Visser. In this he talks about why your
[0:38] capex is my opportunity. He explains
[0:40] what AI stocks he's excited about. He
[0:42] explains a stock that he just sold
[0:43] twothirds of his position for the first
[0:45] time and he explains why. We then talk
[0:47] about Bitcoin, whether Michael Sailor is
[0:48] going to sell Bitcoin and does it matter
[0:50] or does it not. And then we talk about
[0:52] the Iran war and how that may or may not
[0:54] impact the US economy. This conversation
[0:56] is packed with very unique insights.
[0:58] Jordy even references at one point the
[1:00] alcohol he used to drink in college.
[1:01] Give you a good laugh there as well. And
[1:03] so I'm very excited for you all to
[1:05] listen to this. There are parabas
[1:06] happening everywhere in asset prices.
[1:08] And Jord's here to explain to us why
[1:10] that may be an exciting thing, not a
[1:12] worrisome thing. Here's my latest
[1:13] conversation with Jordy Visser. All
[1:15] right, Jordy, I thought a great place to
[1:16] start the conversation this week is it
[1:17] seems like there is a ton of uh froth
[1:20] and enthusiasm in the stock market.
[1:21] There are assets that are going uh
[1:23] parabolic, dare I say. Um and I think
[1:26] that there's a lot of question, you
[1:27] know, can this continue or are stocks
[1:29] overvalued and there's some big crash. I
[1:31] think you've got a very interesting uh
[1:33] theory as to why we are seeing these
[1:36] like parabola type moves. Can you
[1:38] describe exactly what's going on?
[1:41] Yeah, I think for the things that are
[1:43] parabas right now, uh they match up with
[1:46] one fundamental reality that's shown up.
[1:50] So, beginning about a year ago, uh and
[1:53] it was May, I wrote I wrote a paper on
[1:55] inference
[1:57] and for those of you who've listened to
[2:00] this for a while, this is obviously an
[2:02] AI conversation piece, but inference
[2:05] really started to have an impact on
[2:08] things a year ago.
[2:10] And that was when almost every company
[2:13] started in their earnings talking about
[2:15] how inference demand was taking up. Now
[2:17] inference was because we were we had
[2:19] launched the first reasoning models. So
[2:22] I want people just again to think about
[2:24] let's go from chatting where the models
[2:28] are just literally regurgitating answers
[2:30] back out to where they're taking more of
[2:31] a thoughtful time period. Once you take
[2:34] longer to think out an answer,
[2:37] you're in the inference mode. And you
[2:39] know the analogy I've given to people is
[2:41] if you ask someone what 2 plus 2 is,
[2:43] they say four without having to spend
[2:45] any energy. If you ask them what 17* 28
[2:48] is, they got to go through and do take
[2:50] more energy and it takes more time. So
[2:51] they have to reason through however that
[2:53] means for them.
[2:55] At the end of this year or last year,
[2:57] sorry, when Opus 4.5 was released, we
[3:00] went from inference and reasoning to
[3:03] that same inference and reasoning being
[3:05] about action.
[3:08] And so again, simplest way for people to
[3:10] think about it, we had chat and now we
[3:13] have co-work and code. Those two buttons
[3:17] or those two toggles inside Claude since
[3:20] everyone now can say they use Claude. Uh
[3:23] that's where action started to take in
[3:25] where now these digital employees that
[3:28] are working behind the scenes are are
[3:29] are doing multi-step
[3:32] that just led to more demand of tokens.
[3:34] So when you look at beginning of 4.5 you
[3:37] will see a parabola in token usage.
[3:41] >> You will see a parabola in
[3:44] the revenue the annualized revenue run
[3:46] rate for an for claude. I mean now it's
[3:49] up to 44 billion. We're at pace to be at
[3:52] 100 another 10 timeser. So the parabas
[3:56] are being formed by the reality by
[3:58] everyone that oh my god we need more now
[4:01] back in September is when DRAM prices
[4:03] started to go up. That was before opus
[4:05] 4.5 that was purely from the inference
[4:08] needs and the memory that we needed. Now
[4:11] now we've moved into the next phase. So
[4:12] the reason I wrote a paper about Marll
[4:14] is because we started realizing that oh
[4:17] my gosh we need optical fiber because
[4:20] this is this is a different sort of data
[4:22] center. This is different inference. We
[4:23] got a lot of stuff going on. It's not
[4:25] just memory. It's action do this memory
[4:28] action do this. So that's why Corning we
[4:30] talked about Corning back in November.
[4:32] Look where Corning stock is now. So
[4:34] these stocks have all gone through this
[4:36] parabola for a very very valid reason
[4:38] which is the earnings and the buildout
[4:41] necessary for the agent world. We didn't
[4:44] know how big it would be. We didn't know
[4:45] how fast the adoption would be. And this
[4:48] is a mistake that people have made
[4:50] continuously since 2013 which is they
[4:54] made it with the mag 7, they made it
[4:55] with Nvidia and after you know chatbt in
[4:59] the exponential world things move at an
[5:01] exponential pace and that is a parabola.
[5:04] So the IQ going up, the average the
[5:06] annualized run rate going up, adoption
[5:08] going up, there is a fundamental basis
[5:11] for this and before everyone starts to
[5:13] go into this is the dot bubble. Demand
[5:16] is ahead of supply right now and that's
[5:18] the big story. Did you see the clip of
[5:20] Dario Modi uh sitting on stage talking
[5:23] about why they did the deal with uh
[5:24] SpaceX? And he basically was like, you
[5:27] know, we planned our business for uh 2
[5:30] or 3x and then we went all the way out
[5:32] and said the outlier would be if we
[5:33] could 10x our business. And he goes, the
[5:35] problem is that we didn't 10x, we 80xed
[5:38] the business. whenever you have, you
[5:41] know, eight times more than the wildest
[5:43] dreams of the companies who are actually
[5:45] building the products and services, how
[5:48] does an investor, you know, kind of
[5:50] model that out? And this is the issue
[5:52] we're dealing with. Um, I heard someone
[5:55] say this on a podcast yesterday. You
[5:58] went from hockey sticks to polls. Like,
[6:00] and that's the way these charts look.
[6:02] And that's why for most humans they look
[6:05] and the the more educated they are, the
[6:06] more experience they have, the more
[6:08] books they've read about history, the
[6:10] more they're like, well, this is a
[6:11] bubble. This is ridiculous. Um, I just
[6:13] think people have to understand that
[6:16] there's two things that have created
[6:17] this. One is this supersonic tsunami.
[6:21] Again, I think every week we bring it
[6:24] up. I remember saying it on stage at
[6:27] your event like this is a supersonic
[6:29] tsunami. It's disrupting companies on
[6:31] the SAS side, but at the same point, it
[6:34] happens so fast out of nowhere that we
[6:36] didn't make the investment. So if
[6:39] Anthropic is having trouble adjusting,
[6:41] well, they need to create more data
[6:43] centers. They need more supply. So yeah,
[6:45] they go to Google, they go to Amazon,
[6:47] and then they go to XAI. They need the
[6:50] ability to provide the demand what it
[6:53] wants. And the easiest way to think
[6:54] about it is if you create a restaurant
[6:56] and all of a sudden you've got a line
[6:57] out the door. Well, you need more seats
[6:59] and that takes more construction. That
[7:01] takes getting another building. That's
[7:03] expanding your place. That's what stage
[7:05] we're in right now. So, it's a
[7:06] combination of underinvested and
[7:08] underpreparedness for something that's
[7:10] moving this fast at the same time as the
[7:13] people that are now in a race because
[7:14] they're worried about obsolescence. And
[7:16] whether it's obsolescence at the
[7:18] hyperscaler level like we have to catch
[7:20] up or it's at the Goldman Sachs versus
[7:22] Morgan Stanley versus City Bank versus
[7:23] JP Morgan, they're all in this
[7:25] obsolescence race where you want to make
[7:27] sure that you're building out in a
[7:28] thoughtful manner all of the AI that you
[7:31] can use because the cost of this stuff
[7:33] is going higher and it's having an
[7:35] impact and it's going to have an impact
[7:37] for the foreseeable future uh on supply
[7:40] and demand. So one of the things I find
[7:41] very interesting is if you take a
[7:43] company like Hut8 maybe right they just
[7:45] signed a huge almost $10 billion deal
[7:47] for one of their development sites and
[7:50] obviously you know the stock has done
[7:51] incredibly well. Um if you look in the
[7:53] private market you then can see that
[7:55] there are tons of these companies that
[7:56] are uh actually not in the data center
[7:59] business they are in whether it is
[8:01] Bitcoin mining they're in high uh you
[8:03] know kind of high uh technology
[8:05] manufacturing or high performance uh
[8:07] manufacturing type stuff. And now
[8:09] everyone's realizing data centers are
[8:10] hot. And so what they're starting to do
[8:12] is they're either trying to convert
[8:13] their business to the data center side,
[8:15] right? HUDA is a good example. They were
[8:17] Bitcoin miners and they have completely
[8:18] transformed or I've even seen some deals
[8:21] in the private market where people are
[8:22] saying, "Hey, we're still going to do
[8:23] our high performance manufacturing
[8:25] thing, but now on that site that is, you
[8:27] know, x thousands of acres, we're also
[8:30] going to put a data center and that data
[8:32] center is going to help us uh subsidize
[8:35] the cost of doing our high performance
[8:37] manufacturing. where it's going to bring
[8:39] us more capital, etc. And so it's like
[8:40] the trade is hot and now you see people
[8:43] sprinkling it everywhere. It's not as
[8:44] egregious as like everyone changed their
[8:46] name to blockchain, you know, back five,
[8:47] six years ago. But it does feel like
[8:50] you're almost going to get uh, you know,
[8:52] fracturing of attention and capital
[8:54] because people that were trying to do
[8:56] other things are going to start putting
[8:58] the data center in there because they
[8:59] think that can get them, you know, kind
[9:00] of their their ultimate business goal,
[9:02] which I always find fascinating.
[9:03] >> Yeah, HUD 8 and all of the Bitcoin
[9:05] miners are are interesting for a few
[9:07] reasons. First of all, they're listed as
[9:09] software companies.
[9:10] >> So, they're with inside the IGV and uh
[9:14] you know, this weekend I'm going to show
[9:16] charts of just the overlay of crypto
[9:19] equities, Bitcoin miners, and then
[9:22] Bitcoin and Ethereum and software. If
[9:26] you take out the Bitcoin miners, the
[9:28] software names as like an index are
[9:30] still sitting near the lows
[9:32] while the Bitcoin portion is going
[9:34] higher. And the reason is if we go back
[9:36] to the five layer cake which we talked
[9:38] about with Jensen Yuang the base of that
[9:42] which I included in my your capex is my
[9:44] opportunity paper is chips and energy
[9:48] and power
[9:50] that's compute. So everything you're
[9:52] describing with this is compute. So what
[9:54] did Larry Fin say this you know this
[9:56] week? He said uh very soon we're going
[9:59] to have compute futures.
[10:02] Compute is a commodity and it's a
[10:04] commodity because it's the packaging of
[10:06] two pieces of hardware that again you're
[10:10] dealing with electrons to try and get
[10:13] bits out, intelligence out, tokens out.
[10:16] And for that you need power and you need
[10:18] the chips. You need a lot of other
[10:19] component pieces in there for the
[10:20] infrastructure, the cooling and all
[10:22] that. But really what you need is that.
[10:23] So when we say compute, Anthropic's
[10:26] looking for compute and if you're a
[10:28] Bitcoin miner and you have compute
[10:30] because you built something related to
[10:32] crypto, you always have to remember the
[10:34] linkage between artificial intelligence
[10:36] and crypto. The linkage between crypto
[10:39] and code, all of these go together. And
[10:42] again, the reason this is so important,
[10:45] AI agents are coming every day more and
[10:48] more. And I just keep saying eventually
[10:51] you'll start to recognize with stable
[10:54] coins, with tokenization that the guard
[10:56] rails need to be going at the speed that
[10:59] all of these miners knew needed for what
[11:02] was necessary for crypto. So the speed
[11:04] of crypto both on the parabola side, it
[11:06] was the o it's the OG of parabas. Well,
[11:08] now we've got stocks doing parabas. None
[11:11] of the people I know on Wall Street like
[11:13] Bitcoin. They don't like Micron from
[11:15] 100. Now it's 650. If they didn't get it
[11:17] at 100, they're certainly not going to
[11:18] buy it now. They're going to wait for it
[11:19] to get back to 550, 450, 350, 250. And
[11:24] this is this like kind of framework of
[11:25] when you're at this point where compute
[11:27] is in shortage, I think you have to
[11:29] decompose what fits the compute side and
[11:31] realize that all of those parabas you're
[11:33] seeing, they're related to compute. So,
[11:35] there's a couple of things I want to
[11:36] talk through. So, let's talk about
[11:38] Roundill's new uh DRAM ETF. So, these
[11:41] guys basically created a memory ETF. Um
[11:43] it has gone from 0ero to 5 billion in
[11:45] assets in just a couple of weeks. And uh
[11:48] my understanding of what they're doing
[11:49] is basically there are two companies
[11:51] that are in Asia that US investors had a
[11:54] very hard time getting exposure to.
[11:55] These guys basically now are giving it
[11:57] through swaps exposure but you can just
[11:59] buy a single ETF and you basically get
[12:00] exposure to this like DRAM trade. Zero
[12:03] to five billion in assets does not
[12:04] happen almost ever in the ETF industry
[12:07] especially for uh not a black rockck or
[12:11] you know some major uh fund that has
[12:13] very big distribution.
[12:16] What percentage of these companies that
[12:18] are basically fueling or or supplying
[12:21] this you know data center AI compute you
[12:23] know bull market do you think are
[12:25] outside the United States? Because it
[12:27] begs the question of like not only is
[12:29] this trade hot and people are obviously
[12:31] pouring capital in, but there is
[12:33] probably a pretty material percentage of
[12:34] the companies that are hard for us
[12:36] investors actually buy exposure to.
[12:38] Well, you can use the recent trade data
[12:40] that came out yesterday uh as kind or
[12:43] maybe was the day before as the the
[12:46] answer to the question first of all
[12:47] which is we have huge imports of
[12:51] technology stuff coming in for the AI
[12:53] trade huge numbers. I mean, so people
[12:56] understand for DRAM, you're basically
[12:58] talking about Samsung, SKH Highex, and
[13:01] Micron. Those are your three major
[13:03] choices, and two of them, yes, are in
[13:05] the Korean market. Uh, on the flip side,
[13:08] to balance out the trade, we're huge
[13:10] exporter of energy, especially now with
[13:12] Iran. So, that's what's kind of balanced
[13:15] out. We have tremendous enormous imports
[13:17] coming in related to the the data center
[13:20] buildout and all the things we need for
[13:22] for compute. And it's not just that.
[13:24] It's it's things for phones. It's things
[13:25] for computers. Everything that's AI
[13:27] related, we're we're getting a lot of it
[13:29] from overseas. And I don't want people
[13:31] to think about that this is just related
[13:33] to DRAM. It's a lot more things. Nvidia
[13:35] is doing deals throughout Korea for
[13:37] heavy electronics. I mean, they're
[13:39] rolling out Ver Rubin. They're still
[13:40] rolling out Blackwell. And that brings a
[13:42] lot of needs on the power side that we
[13:44] just don't have here. Um at the same
[13:46] point, if you need gas turbines, two of
[13:48] the major companies, Seammens and
[13:50] Mitsubishi, they're outside. Japan has a
[13:52] huge export side that's to the US too.
[13:54] So there's a lot of companies that if if
[13:56] people are looking to get concentrated
[13:58] risk. So remember as much as I want to
[14:00] say, "Oh yeah, we need access to these."
[14:02] Well, you can get access to them in the
[14:03] Korean ETF, they want concentrated
[14:06] access to DRAM. And to be honest with
[14:08] you, uh you know, I've called this
[14:10] benchmark arbitrage. If you're an RAIA,
[14:13] if you're a mutual fund, if you're a
[14:14] pension fund, they're all benchmarked.
[14:17] And right now the benchmarks are wrong.
[14:19] So the other angle of supersonic tsunami
[14:21] is it creates these parabas because the
[14:23] dollars flowing in areor enormous. I'll
[14:25] keep saying it every time. Jensen Yuang
[14:27] has said to everyone the buildout's
[14:29] going to be 90 trillion over the next
[14:30] decade. Like those are massive numbers
[14:32] and it's basically a rotation. We're
[14:34] getting rid and we're allowing every old
[14:36] car that doesn't have AI in it to be
[14:38] gone and we'll be replacing it with a
[14:41] new car that's AI. It'll take a decade
[14:42] for all of those cars to recycle. Same
[14:45] thing will happen with appliances. Same
[14:46] thing will happen with phones. Same
[14:47] thing will happen with computers. It
[14:49] won't happen in one year. It'll happen
[14:52] spread out over a while. The data
[14:54] centers, it takes a long time to build
[14:55] the data centers. So, everyone that's
[14:57] kind of caught in this thinking, okay,
[14:59] it's not there. I'm going to bring it up
[15:01] again and again because I'm sick of
[15:02] reading these self-absorbed people who
[15:05] believe I've seen bubbles. I know what
[15:07] they look like. This is a bubble. Yes,
[15:09] this looks like a bubble. And just like
[15:12] just like everyone who went to college
[15:14] has that alcohol they don't drink
[15:16] anymore because it brings back that bad
[15:17] memory. Parabas bring back bad memories
[15:20] to people. And so you hear the phrase
[15:22] I've seen this before. Retail doesn't
[15:24] know what this is. This is a bubble.
[15:26] This is tulips. I think people have to
[15:28] just deal with this is a structural
[15:30] thing. And instead of having crashes
[15:31] where everyone loses their job and it
[15:33] takes four years to go back to highs,
[15:35] that allows every smart person to buy
[15:37] things at value when the people that are
[15:39] dependent on credit have to sell their
[15:41] stuff. This is a different retail
[15:43] situation. Anyone who wants a job can
[15:45] get a job. It may not be the job you
[15:47] want, but you can get a job. If you can
[15:48] get a job, that means you still have
[15:50] income coming in the door. Okay? That
[15:52] means you can still make your payments.
[15:54] You can still go through this, but
[15:55] you're living paycheck to paycheck. That
[15:56] is very different than losing 4 million
[15:58] jobs in a year. and you can't spend any
[16:00] money and now you're in a different
[16:02] situation. These are all different and
[16:04] instead of having crashes that last a
[16:05] long time, we've had a cra we had a
[16:08] crash last year, lasted for weeks. We
[16:11] had a 10% fall this year. It lasted for
[16:13] a little bit of time. We had plenty of
[16:15] stocks that fell 30, 40, 50%. We still
[16:17] have a lot of names that have fallen a
[16:20] lot. Maybe we're not having the crashes
[16:22] we had in the past. Maybe these are just
[16:24] speed crashes. Well, I have long said
[16:27] that there's uh this generation is the
[16:30] volatility generation and there's kind
[16:31] of two types of investors. Some that run
[16:33] towards volatility, some that run away.
[16:35] Uh the people who are driving most of
[16:36] the returns, the people running towards
[16:38] the volatility. You can look across the
[16:39] market. You know, you just mentioned the
[16:40] last two years, the type of volatility.
[16:42] Um but you call it a speed crash. Uh
[16:46] another way that I've thought about this
[16:47] is really what stocks now do are this
[16:50] they gyate. And the reason why I say
[16:52] gyate is because it is not okay I start
[16:55] at a low price I go to a high price I
[16:57] crash I go sideways for a while and then
[16:59] maybe I recover. You know there's always
[17:00] the famous like it took 10 years to
[17:02] recover from you know XYZ crash
[17:04] throughout history for different names.
[17:06] The girration to me is really
[17:08] interesting because you can go up
[17:09] hundreds of percent, you draw down 50%,
[17:11] then you go back up hundreds of percent
[17:12] and it's just like this constant
[17:14] volatility where the best thing to do is
[17:17] have a thesis by the name and then kind
[17:19] of don't look right and it's going to be
[17:21] all over the place, but over a long
[17:23] period of time it continues to go up and
[17:24] to the right. Um, is that a fair way to
[17:27] think about this? Is almost like you
[17:28] need the, you know, acceleration and
[17:30] then the crash and the acceleration
[17:32] again and like that is the volatility
[17:33] that gets you the higher prices. So,
[17:36] you've brought up a behavioral comment.
[17:38] Um, I haven't what I'm about to say to
[17:41] this because I I I didn't just popped
[17:44] into my head and that happens sometimes.
[17:46] The difference between um younger people
[17:50] and let's say people in in their
[17:53] 50s and 60s,
[17:56] there's a reason why they had to speed
[17:57] up baseball. They had to put a clock on
[17:59] the pitcher. Okay? There's a reason why
[18:02] all of a sudden football inside or the
[18:04] football scores are now in the 50s
[18:07] regularly. Uh there's a reason why when
[18:11] you say today's news like they forget
[18:13] about what's happening and move on to
[18:14] the next.
[18:15] >> Remember Maduro?
[18:16] >> Yeah. And that's what I mean. It's like
[18:18] um Tik Tok is is the right length for a
[18:21] video like attention deficit disorder
[18:24] which is something that I absolutely
[18:26] >> Yeah. Me and you.
[18:27] >> Yeah. As a kid,
[18:28] >> are we the ADD boys?
[18:29] >> Yeah.
[18:31] So, uh, I I was put into emerging
[18:33] markets. It was the perfect place for
[18:35] me.
[18:35] >> Interesting.
[18:36] >> Bull market. Oh, next day bare market.
[18:38] Oh, world's going to end. And so, I
[18:39] traded my way through emerging markets.
[18:41] So, there's the reason why my daughter
[18:43] said, "Okay, you are the world's oldest
[18:46] millennial. I've you you've acted you
[18:48] like you move on. It's the reason why I
[18:50] got involved with when I got to Morgan
[18:53] Stanley. trust me to move to the level I
[18:56] did
[18:57] in the time that I did as a son of a
[19:00] construction worker who went to
[19:01] Manhattan College and graduated I mean I
[19:03] was not young when I graduated college
[19:06] like this was not a thing for me but to
[19:08] move up to the ladder part of it was I
[19:12] didn't have anything to lose
[19:14] >> and I think that is one of the things
[19:15] that separates retail from again the
[19:18] self-absorbed pontificators in X that
[19:21] say this is a bubble that say everyone's
[19:23] is going to lose all their money. We
[19:25] have we'll have falls of 20 30%. I'm I'm
[19:28] guaranteeing you that at some point I've
[19:30] gotten rid of twothirds of my micron. So
[19:31] everyone who's been involved watching
[19:33] this show since I first mentioned micron
[19:35] 2/3 of it is now gone. This week just so
[19:37] we're clear. We always talk about things
[19:39] that people are buying, but you sold
[19:40] twothirds of your micron. What?
[19:42] >> This week it's already higher than as of
[19:44] this morning when we did this. It's
[19:45] already higher than it was when I sold
[19:46] it. So I'm not like making some call
[19:48] that this went down and it's going down.
[19:50] The reason I sold out of it is not
[19:52] because I think it's coming down. Do I
[19:54] think it might fall 20 30%. Yeah, to be
[19:56] honest with you, if it did, I would
[19:57] probably buy it again because it is way
[19:59] too cheap for the view that I have. So,
[20:01] when people sit there and say this stuff
[20:04] is going to fall, just ask them one
[20:06] question. What is your view on AI over
[20:08] the next 5 years, instead of telling me
[20:10] that this poll is going to fall, do you
[20:12] use AI? What's your view on it? Do you
[20:14] think agents are going to be in here?
[20:15] Just ask them the questions? Because at
[20:17] least when I have this conversation, I'm
[20:19] selling DRAM not because I have any
[20:21] negative thoughts about where AI is, but
[20:23] because the DRAM thing bothers me in
[20:25] terms of how much money has moved into
[20:27] it. The fact that SKHIX has a two times
[20:30] ETF in Hong Kong that is like one of the
[20:33] biggest in the Hong Kong market, that
[20:35] just means I think everyone's in it. And
[20:38] my guess is is that over the next six
[20:40] months it's probably higher. It could be
[20:44] lower, but if I had to guess, I'd say
[20:46] it's somewhere around where it is now.
[20:48] So, where did I put my money if I sold
[20:49] it? Well, that went into silver, which
[20:51] has fallen significantly and to me is
[20:54] starting to go into the next regime. So,
[20:56] the regime I've talked about and the way
[20:58] that I move my money is I think we're
[20:59] entering a new regime within AI. So, AI
[21:01] is going to have cycles. At some point,
[21:04] instead of recessions and crashes, you
[21:06] know what we're going to run into is
[21:07] bottlenecks. And when the bottlenecks
[21:10] happen, the volume of sales might
[21:12] actually come down for the an earnings
[21:14] period. And that's what I think may
[21:15] happen is maybe the first quarter, this
[21:18] massive earnings we've seen, is the
[21:20] hoarding that happened with inside
[21:22] hardware and semis. And that once they
[21:23] get it, they have to wait for the data
[21:25] centers to be built, which is taking
[21:26] longer than expected, and they're not
[21:28] using it as much. Will they continue to
[21:30] buy it? I'm not really sure. DRAM prices
[21:32] did peak. So, I'm making a rational
[21:34] argument for me that it does feel like
[21:37] too much retail might be in here now and
[21:40] that they're going to move their
[21:41] attention to something else, which is
[21:42] where I think inflation is going to be
[21:43] and real rates are going to be stuck at
[21:46] again negative levels. We'll have
[21:47] inflation above rates. If I'm right
[21:49] about that, I want to be in gold. I want
[21:51] to be in silver. I want to be in
[21:52] Bitcoin. I bought some Bitcoin. I bought
[21:54] Ethereum because I think tokenization uh
[21:57] reality is going to start to set in in
[21:58] the summertime. I don't think enough
[22:00] people are talking about tokenization
[22:01] and what's happening and what they've
[22:02] basically announced to start in July. AI
[22:05] agents are with us. They need food and
[22:08] that food is not physical food. It is
[22:10] tokens. There's been a shortage. That's
[22:12] what's worked. I think now we're going
[22:14] to run into a supply demand issue and
[22:16] that's going to be about more inflation
[22:17] than what people expected. And if that's
[22:19] the case, I don't want to be in semis as
[22:21] much as I want to be in power. Today's
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[23:30] >> Kevin Olirri has a data center project
[23:34] in Utah. And it's not clear to me. Kevin
[23:36] is a friend of mine. I like to give him
[23:37] a hard time. He is, I believe, 71 years
[23:40] old. He looks like he's 19 years old.
[23:42] He's got a fresh face, you know. Uh he's
[23:44] very entertaining. Now he's moving about
[23:45] me, too.
[23:46] >> Yeah. Well, listen, he he's a movie star
[23:48] now. You know, he gets on to every older
[23:49] person. He uh he he he whacked uh uh
[23:53] Shalamé with the uh with a paddle in the
[23:56] movie, you know, he's doing his thing.
[23:58] Um but he's got this data center project
[23:59] and I don't know how involved he is
[24:01] versus he's funding it versus, you know,
[24:03] he's actually working on the the
[24:04] specifics, but it is something like uh
[24:07] two and a half times the size of
[24:08] Manhattan, how big this thing, right?
[24:11] And there was a video that went viral
[24:13] recently of a couple hundred local
[24:15] citizens showed up to like the city
[24:17] commission meeting and they're yelling
[24:18] and screaming and you know having a
[24:20] blast basically protesting we don't want
[24:21] this thing in our community. I posted a
[24:24] video about this online and I was
[24:26] shocked at how uh controversial the two
[24:30] sides are or how much they disagree.
[24:32] There's one side which I'm sympathetic
[24:34] to which is um hey we need data centers.
[24:37] We people want intelligence. They want
[24:39] to use these products. we don't have
[24:40] enough power. We don't have enough
[24:41] compute. We need to build this stuff
[24:43] out. And these things pay taxes in your
[24:45] local community. There's evidence that
[24:47] like a loudening county actually the
[24:49] property taxes are pretty low because
[24:50] the data centers pay so much. There's
[24:52] job creation and companies and all this
[24:53] kind of stuff. On the other side of the
[24:55] debate, which I'm also sympathetic to,
[24:57] is there's a lot of concerns about, hey,
[24:59] is my electricity prices going to go up?
[25:00] Is the water supply going to be
[25:02] affected? The data centers are ugly,
[25:04] right? They don't create as many local
[25:06] jobs once the construction's done,
[25:07] right? And so like I kind of look at
[25:09] this and I say I see both sides as to
[25:11] why we get to this debate. I tend to
[25:14] think that technology wins out and the
[25:16] data centers will get built and you know
[25:17] we'll kind of keep going. But do you
[25:20] think that the like local community
[25:22] protest will actually slow development
[25:25] because everyone's talking about
[25:26] technology and hardware and power
[25:28] generation like those being the
[25:29] bottlenecks. But is there like a social
[25:31] layer that we should be talking about as
[25:33] well that may actually lead to slower
[25:35] development of some of this?
[25:38] >> So the f it already is slowing things.
[25:40] Um and that's just so the protests and
[25:43] the regulations are just one part. I
[25:45] mean gas turbines are slowing it. Labor
[25:47] can't find enough electricians, enough
[25:49] plumbers, uh cooling equipment is
[25:51] slowing it. Memory is slowing it. Um all
[25:53] of these things are going to slow it.
[25:55] The the thing is things going slower is
[25:58] not always um a bad thing. Uh you you
[26:02] know I think to control
[26:05] inflation to be honest with you the
[26:08] spending is being done by people who
[26:09] have unlimited amounts of money and I
[26:10] know people want to look at these free
[26:12] cash flow charts and be like oh my god
[26:13] they don't have any more money they're
[26:14] going to cancel buying or OpenAI's
[26:17] cancelling deals are not and OpenAI just
[26:18] raised $122 billion.
[26:20] >> Is that a lot?
[26:21] >> Yeah. and and they're about to do a
[26:23] public raise where I I don't know if
[26:25] they take out another hundred like we're
[26:26] talking about an enormous amount of
[26:28] money. So, um I I I just think people
[26:32] are going to have to deal with the fact
[26:33] that the data centers are probably going
[26:35] to take a lot longer than what people
[26:37] expect and this is only the supply
[26:40] disruptions we've seen so far. You know,
[26:43] I'm going to say this again and again,
[26:45] the agent world came out of nowhere.
[26:46] DRAM prices went through the roof.
[26:50] We have a problem with inventories in
[26:52] oil if people haven't noticed. Um so
[26:54] rather than get into the doom and gloom
[26:56] portion which again um everyone in the
[27:00] oil space seems to want to scare the
[27:02] hell out of people. The reality is we do
[27:04] have uh lower inventories which means
[27:07] we're probably going to have higher
[27:09] prices for longer than what was expected
[27:11] definitely than at the beginning of the
[27:13] year. The December crude price as of
[27:15] this morning was up around 77. Last, you
[27:18] know, at the end of last year it was
[27:19] less than 60. So you're talking about
[27:21] out to December, assuming that the
[27:23] futures prices, which I think are too
[27:25] low, you're talking about a very high
[27:27] level of of of energy change, silver
[27:31] prices, despite the fact that they've
[27:32] corrected, they're significantly above
[27:34] where they were. I could go on and on in
[27:36] this. You're going to see food prices
[27:37] that are up significantly. I mean, I'm
[27:38] going to show a chart this weekend that
[27:40] basically overlays gas at the pump to
[27:43] food prices, a prices going back to
[27:45] 2000. It's a it's almost a one for one
[27:48] correlation imped we're going to have
[27:50] severe food prices in the second half of
[27:52] the year. And the reason it doesn't
[27:53] happen immediately is because we're
[27:55] still living off of food from whatever
[27:58] the case. We've just planted the
[28:00] fertilizer costs are significant and
[28:04] that means that prices are going to be
[28:05] higher. the the trucking situation rates
[28:08] are higher. So, you're going to have a
[28:10] situation in my opinion, you know, where
[28:13] we've differed where I think people are
[28:14] underestimating the the permanence of
[28:17] inflation on the commodity side and that
[28:19] also spreads to the shortages we are
[28:21] still going to have remaining on the
[28:22] memory and the compute side of which are
[28:24] competing. So, we've seen phone prices
[28:27] uh phone sales, computer sales go down.
[28:30] And so, I don't know how this stuff is
[28:32] going to work itself out in the near
[28:34] term. And that all fits into this
[28:35] equation of the data centers are going
[28:37] to be delayed. Everyone is getting
[28:39] negative on AI, not just because of the
[28:41] data centers, but because of the
[28:42] inflationary pressures that are all
[28:44] being lumped into it. And if you don't
[28:46] think this is going to be part of the
[28:47] midterm dialogue when we're in the
[28:49] summertime and we're getting into the
[28:50] heart of like this issue, of course it
[28:53] is.
[28:54] AI has obviously had an impact on these
[28:57] businesses. We talk a lot about like how
[28:59] we get the AI but I think if we talk
[29:01] about you know what what is happening
[29:02] with AI in terms of these companies um
[29:05] in the last 72 hours we have seen a
[29:08] number of very large layoffs almost
[29:11] every single one of them reference AI to
[29:13] some degree. Um I find it funny because
[29:17] some of these companies you look at
[29:18] their underlying metrics and you're like
[29:19] oh wait a second hold on I think it has
[29:21] more to do with you know just the
[29:22] industry is not doing as well or the
[29:24] company is you know trying to uh
[29:25] rightsize its unit economics or whatever
[29:28] but they are referencing AI. Is this
[29:31] just going to be cover and now people
[29:33] can go lay off, you know, 10, 15, 20% of
[29:35] their uh company, which they should have
[29:37] done already, but now they've got an
[29:39] excuse to do it and everyone kind of
[29:40] just like, oh, okay, it's AI and
[29:42] therefore we should expect uh a lot more
[29:44] job loss because of it.
[29:46] >> Um I I think rather than there's no
[29:49] doubt that AI is is the direct cause.
[29:52] So, I'm going to go out and say that
[29:53] anyone that's minimizing AI, yes,
[29:56] companies may have overhired with
[29:57] people, all well and good, but the cost
[30:00] of AI of anthropic in your business,
[30:02] it's going higher. So, if you're going
[30:04] to use AI, which every company that's
[30:05] going to be around in the next decade
[30:07] has to be using artificial intelligence,
[30:10] the cost of adoption has gone through
[30:11] the roof. And so, when they realize,
[30:14] okay, I need AI. Well, you can't all
[30:18] have it on the cloud, so that means you
[30:20] need new servers. you need this, you
[30:22] need that. And by the way, there's no
[30:24] Mac minis, there's no this. So when you
[30:25] start looking at server costs and you go
[30:27] to Dell and you go to HP and then you go
[30:30] to Cisco, we have shortages in all this
[30:32] stuff. The component pieces are going up
[30:33] in value. So the physical constraints of
[30:37] the world where we underinvested. I
[30:39] mean, Cisco didn't think there'd be a
[30:41] need for massive routers again because
[30:43] we were in the cloud. It's only because
[30:45] AI can't be in the cloud to do the
[30:48] thinking that it needs to be in the
[30:49] physical locations. And so for every
[30:52] company, and this is a big company
[30:54] problem, they're going to lay off people
[30:56] because they need to use that to pay for
[30:59] the buildout and hope that they get the
[31:01] return on the benefits that come from
[31:03] AI. I I'm a little bit worried. Um, and
[31:07] and I it's only as as a power user, it
[31:11] is very hard for me to see how easy
[31:13] it'll be for these companies to really
[31:15] find a way to get the true margin
[31:18] benefits from this when they when they
[31:21] get rid of the people. But the numbers
[31:22] are so big because if you get rid of 10%
[31:24] of your workforce, a lot of these
[31:26] companies, you're talking about billions
[31:28] of dollars of compensation. And that
[31:30] means they have a lot of money to spend
[31:32] both on, you know, the physical buildout
[31:35] and then you hope that they get the
[31:37] money through. My guess is those those
[31:40] job costs are to help them, but they're
[31:42] happening in a numbers basis that's not
[31:45] going to impact the job situation at the
[31:48] aggregate level. I mean, we got the
[31:49] payroll numbers today. It was a positive
[31:51] number. Wages aren't positive. They're
[31:54] at the lowest level since the COVID
[31:56] situation. So, I just think when we go
[31:58] through this, you're going to be in a a
[32:00] psychologically depressing
[32:03] position for anyone who's trapped in
[32:06] companies where they're not having
[32:08] upward mobility. So, it really makes the
[32:09] distribution of wealth problem again
[32:11] worse.
[32:12] >> A company that was trapped was uh
[32:15] formerly Micro Strategy, now known as
[32:17] Strategy. They have employed a brand new
[32:19] uh Bitcoin strategy. You like that
[32:21] transition, huh? Pretty good, right?
[32:23] >> Very nice. Um, and then speaking of
[32:24] psychological uh impact, another
[32:27] transition. Um, Michael Sailor recently
[32:31] uh explicitly said he may sell some
[32:34] Bitcoin to fund dividends. Um,
[32:37] surprisingly, the price of Bitcoin was
[32:39] higher 24 hours later, not lower. Is
[32:42] that cuz people don't care? Is that cuz
[32:44] the market already figured he'd have to
[32:46] sell Bitcoin at some point? or are we
[32:49] now being driven higher by something
[32:51] other than Michael Sailor and those
[32:54] types of companies buying Bitcoin?
[32:57] >> If you ask me why something moves you,
[32:59] which you seldom do, I'll always say the
[33:02] same thing on any given day. Who knows
[33:04] what's going on. Um
[33:06] >> I have a theory why Bitcoin's going
[33:07] higher.
[33:08] >> No inside information, but I have I have
[33:11] a uh strong theory
[33:13] >> here. You give your theory first.
[33:17] the US government.
[33:19] >> Is this a theory or a conspiracy theory?
[33:22] >> No, no, no.
[33:23] >> Okay.
[33:24] >> I'm putting pieces together.
[33:25] >> Okay. Connecting dots. Good.
[33:27] >> So, uh I think there's two different
[33:29] White House officials who have said that
[33:31] there will be an announcement about the
[33:32] strategic Bitcoin reserve in a few
[33:33] weeks. There seems to be a persistent
[33:36] bid in Bitcoin
[33:37] >> that would suggest that someone is
[33:38] aggressively buying Bitcoin. Most people
[33:40] assume that Sailor is that buyer. I
[33:44] think he's probably part of it. But if
[33:46] in a couple of weeks we find that the US
[33:48] government has accumulated more Bitcoin
[33:49] and been purchasing in the open market,
[33:51] that would explain why Bitcoin has gone
[33:54] from 7475,000 to 80 to 82,000 in, you
[33:59] know, a short period of time is that
[34:01] having that persistent bid there would
[34:04] be a big driver, especially if they need
[34:05] to accumulate, you know, billions of
[34:07] dollars of Bitcoin in order to make it
[34:09] impactful. I don't know that to be true,
[34:11] whatever. But just like, hey, we have an
[34:14] announcement coming and Bitcoin is
[34:16] trading up.
[34:17] Maybe it's people thinking that the
[34:19] government's buying in the front running
[34:20] or something, right? But just like there
[34:21] seems to be something related to that
[34:23] government announcement that uh may be a
[34:25] leading indicator of why Bitcoin's going
[34:27] higher.
[34:28] >> Yeah. I I
[34:29] >> You're not You're not convinced.
[34:30] >> No, no, no. I I think if the government
[34:33] was in there buying um it would act very
[34:37] different than it does. Um, here's what
[34:40] I think is going to I I think there'd be
[34:42] more of a bid to it than you think. For
[34:44] one thing,
[34:47] >> this government there tends to be a lot
[34:48] of leaks.
[34:51] So, I'm just
[34:52] >> We'd see the poly market or couch
[34:54] spiking.
[34:55] >> Yeah. I I think there'd be a big change
[34:57] here. Here's something that's happened
[34:59] that people should um
[35:01] >> Jordy, it's just information making its
[35:02] way to the market. What are you talking
[35:04] about?
[35:05] >> Yeah. I mean, the good thing is Bitcoin
[35:07] bottomed at 60,000. and it's now at 80.
[35:11] I I can do math fairly well. It's 33%
[35:13] move to you and me. That's a big move.
[35:15] That's better than the stock market. So,
[35:17] we'll leave that alone. Um here's what I
[35:20] think is important news for people to
[35:21] recognize.
[35:23] The
[35:25] Black Rockck ETF shares outstanding
[35:29] all-time highs.
[35:31] All-time highs. So, it's higher than
[35:34] when it was 126,000.
[35:38] That means that in a what is considered
[35:41] a bare market to most people I most most
[35:44] podcasts I listen to in crypto. It's
[35:46] amazing how much this four-year cycle
[35:48] like it'll never die. We're in the
[35:49] middle of the four-year cycle. It's not
[35:51] going to end until the end of the year.
[35:52] And I'm like, "Oh my god, I got to
[35:53] listen to this forever." Whatever the
[35:55] case is. It's like the boogeyman's
[35:57] around. Yeah, it's the four-year cycle.
[35:58] Well, the boomers because that's what
[36:01] the Black Rockck ETF is the boomers.
[36:04] Okay.
[36:05] The wealth managers,
[36:07] Morgan Stanley creates a I mean, if you
[36:10] >> Stanley's over 200 million in like two
[36:12] weeks
[36:12] >> and if you go through where we were at
[36:15] the beginning, like the boomers are
[36:17] buying it. They're adding it to asset
[36:18] allocation. So, my whole story about
[36:21] this
[36:24] IPO type thing where the OGs are getting
[36:26] out and they're transferring ownership
[36:28] to the boomers.
[36:31] If they're buying during a down move, I
[36:32] just want to let people know when this
[36:34] thing goes higher, they will be buying
[36:36] in an up move.
[36:37] >> Of course.
[36:38] >> No question. So, they're in.
[36:40] >> Oh, they chase, too. They're not
[36:41] disciplined.
[36:42] >> Yeah. No, they're Well, here's the
[36:43] thing, and again, I'll say it again and
[36:45] again and again and again. The growth
[36:47] asset bucket has died.
[36:49] Private credit not coming back, private
[36:51] equity not coming back, VC not coming
[36:52] back, SAS not coming back. You guys can
[36:54] all do what you want. You can try to
[36:56] pick these things. There's a reason why
[36:58] the the ultimate long duration asset
[37:00] bonds are uninvestable. These things are
[37:03] not investable in a world where speed is
[37:07] the game.
[37:08] >> These these are old illlquid things.
[37:11] >> You sound so much better saying it than
[37:12] me cuz I just say bonds are trash and
[37:14] everyone gets mad at me. You say it in
[37:16] such an eloquent way that you know
[37:17] they'll listen to you. Say that again.
[37:18] What? What's the problem, boss?
[37:20] >> I don't even remember what I said. You
[37:21] if you haven't got this point now, stuff
[37:22] just flies out of my mouth. My brain's
[37:24] really good about it. But if you ask me
[37:25] what I said, I don't even remember.
[37:27] >> But but this point of like, okay, a lot
[37:30] of the long duration assets in general,
[37:31] I mean, you just named private credit,
[37:33] private equity, venture capital, bonds,
[37:35] etc.
[37:36] >> Th those things are all under immense
[37:38] pressure right now.
[37:39] >> And they're under pressure for valid
[37:41] reasons because what AI has done is made
[37:43] people realize that they don't know what
[37:45] the world's going to look like in 3
[37:46] years. So why would you make any long
[37:47] duration?
[37:48] >> Mhm.
[37:49] >> This happened. So corporate credit, the
[37:52] reason we don't have recessions anymore
[37:54] is because we lost the credit angle of
[37:56] this. Meaning we used to have this
[37:58] contagion that happened because the
[38:00] winners of the prior cycle would have
[38:02] lots of debt. So if you go back to the
[38:04] great financial crisis, who had all the
[38:06] debt? Well, was people doing the loans
[38:07] on the housing. Before that, if you go
[38:09] to 2000, it was the dotcom bubble. Well,
[38:11] the period we just went through, the mag
[38:13] 7 had no debt. Now they're accumulating
[38:16] debt. The debt is for AI. If we were
[38:18] going to have a recession, yeah, it
[38:19] would make sense if these companies
[38:21] didn't have the demand and they didn't
[38:22] have receivables of $1.3 trillion
[38:24] sitting there. They need the data
[38:26] centers to get the money. So, we don't
[38:28] have that. But with innovation and with
[38:30] AI, you also don't need people anymore
[38:33] to start a business. You don't need debt
[38:34] or people. So, we're at the ultimate
[38:36] point of like what happens to the
[38:38] capital structure. So, all people that
[38:40] are like, you know what, I think this
[38:42] company's going to make it in 10 years.
[38:43] I'm going to give them money. I'm a VC.
[38:44] I'm going to give him a lot of money.
[38:46] That's not happening. Not for 10 years.
[38:47] Now, can people find an anthropic?
[38:51] Yeah. Can they find a cursor? Yeah. And
[38:52] cursor, you know, went from a zero to
[38:55] what, 50, 60 billion from XAI? There
[38:58] will be those out there. The question
[39:00] is, how much of that company did VC own
[39:02] when it went through there and how much
[39:04] was actually owned by the owners? So, I
[39:06] just think we've disrupted the whole
[39:07] thing. You see a lot of people talking
[39:09] about terminal value. Goldman Sachs
[39:10] wrote a whole thing on terminal value. I
[39:12] just think for people that are long-term
[39:14] investors, we're entering a period where
[39:16] transparency and liquidity is becoming
[39:19] critical because a lot of money is stuck
[39:21] in dormant assets. So tokenization is
[39:23] actually needed for no other reason for
[39:25] price discovery for a lot of these
[39:26] things that they're trapped in.
[39:28] >> It's funny you say that because uh
[39:29] anthropic um is trading in the uh like
[39:34] tokenized preipo per future world. Uh,
[39:38] Binance Research has a really good uh,
[39:40] report out that shows uh, Anthropic,
[39:42] OpenAI, and um, SpaceX are all up on
[39:47] average 88% over the last 6 months in
[39:50] the like uh, preIPO pers. And people are
[39:54] just going they're going to find a way
[39:55] to get exposure to this stuff. But I
[39:58] have a um proclamation to make which
[40:00] people are not going to like, but it's
[40:01] true. The Iran war is over. may not
[40:04] technically be over psychologically
[40:08] in people's evaluation of what is going
[40:10] on in the stock market. We've been
[40:12] sitting here for almost 45 minutes
[40:13] talking. We've not talked about the Iran
[40:15] war one time. I think that people are
[40:17] like, "Cool, got it. It happened. It is
[40:20] now memory hold as a risk and sure does
[40:25] it have an impact on, you know, oil or
[40:27] gas or whatever." But people are pretty
[40:29] much like if it ends tomorrow or not, I
[40:31] don't know how many people would change
[40:32] their portfolio. I don't think it's a
[40:34] big percentage. What do you think?
[40:36] >> Well, here here's the thing. Um, the AI
[40:39] trade is driving everything.
[40:41] >> Mhm.
[40:41] >> So, like Whirlpool was down huge this
[40:45] week, and the reason was they said this
[40:48] is the worst appliance market since the
[40:50] great financial crisis. So, I I think as
[40:53] much as we're saying the stock market
[40:55] doesn't care, well, that's asset owners.
[40:58] People driving trucks care. people in
[41:01] the part of the country where they're
[41:02] living paycheck to paycheck care about
[41:03] gas prices being up at the highest level
[41:05] outside of the great outside of COVID.
[41:08] Um, and they're not getting styi checks.
[41:11] So, I as much as I think people want to
[41:14] believe the market doesn't care, there's
[41:15] a lot of parts of the market that are
[41:17] not up that much. If it wasn't for the
[41:19] semiconductor names, which again, you
[41:21] can't do that with the market. This is
[41:22] the reason why you invest in indexes and
[41:24] you passively invest because you're
[41:26] still getting the returns.
[41:29] I I think there's another angle to this
[41:31] which again I said at the beginning.
[41:34] You're going to have speed crashes.
[41:36] You're going to have periods where it
[41:37] goes down. I don't think that's going to
[41:38] happen in the stock market this year,
[41:39] but I do think we're at a new regime.
[41:41] And the new regime to me is one where
[41:44] we're going to have a new Fed chair
[41:45] coming in. That's going to be a story in
[41:46] a in in a few weeks. We have Trump going
[41:49] to China. That's going to be a new story
[41:50] in the next couple weeks. And these are
[41:53] going to have an impact on the way
[41:54] people view the market.
[41:56] The commodity hoarding side to me is
[41:58] still in play. The inventories for
[42:00] energy. This is not about
[42:03] is the world going to hit 200 oil and
[42:05] are we going to collapse. Um, one thing
[42:07] I want to say which it it is clear and I
[42:11] think is important for people to
[42:12] recognize that read constantly the doom
[42:15] and gloom from oil. The one thing that
[42:17] no oil person ever talks about when I
[42:19] read this is how we watch the straight
[42:23] of Hormoose like it's a video game.
[42:26] You couldn't do this 15 years ago.
[42:29] Meaning we didn't have satellite imagery
[42:30] on X of how many boats go through. The
[42:33] reason that's important is just like
[42:35] when you go to a supermarket and they
[42:37] have real time knowledge of inventory
[42:40] because of technology, so does India. So
[42:43] does Vietnam, so does Australia. They
[42:45] see how many ships are going through and
[42:47] so they make changes to the demand side
[42:49] of the equation. We have absolutely
[42:51] saved millions of barrels a day by the
[42:54] governments going, "Okay, you can only
[42:55] drive your car if your car ends in an
[42:58] even number and and then on Wednesday
[43:00] you guys can go on an odd number. You
[43:02] have to car pool." They find ways to
[43:04] reduce the demand side. That was hard
[43:07] when you didn't have information. So,
[43:09] always remember when you connect the
[43:10] digital economy back to this old stuff
[43:13] in the 1970s, we didn't have that kind
[43:15] of information. So, you didn't know
[43:17] exactly how many barrels there were or
[43:18] what kind of inventory. I think everyone
[43:20] has to recognize that we're just in a
[43:23] situation just like Silicon Valley Bank
[43:26] that when you can see the problem
[43:27] happening and you see all the deposits
[43:29] leaving the banks, the government steps
[43:30] in early and does something. So, I just
[43:33] bring that up because there's a
[43:34] different way this plays out. And for
[43:36] the people who don't think inflation is
[43:38] going to be here for the rest of the
[43:39] year, I think you're making a really,
[43:41] really big mistake not anticipating that
[43:43] it's not about the episodic crash. It's
[43:45] more about the duration and the fact
[43:47] that the hoarding and everything is
[43:49] going to be there for a long time. Now,
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[46:37] Speaking of grocery stores, did you see
[46:39] the startup, I forget the name of it, um
[46:42] that just launched where they basically
[46:44] are going to uh automate the grocery
[46:46] store and the entire idea is to use
[46:48] technology to understand inventory and
[46:51] all this stuff. And as they're I was
[46:53] watching their uh kind of announcement
[46:55] video that had a little demo and they
[46:56] were explaining what they're doing. It
[46:58] is pretty much everything from they're
[46:59] hooked into the POSOS system, their
[47:01] inventory, it automatically orders new
[47:04] things when it's low, you know, all
[47:05] this.
[47:06] >> The first thing that popped to mind,
[47:08] grocery stores are going to do surge
[47:09] pricing or dynamic pricing because if
[47:13] you walk into the grocery store and
[47:16] there are, you know, whatever 20
[47:18] different uh little packages of
[47:20] blueberries, well, whatever the price is
[47:23] should be the price. But if there's only
[47:24] one left and the grocery store knows
[47:27] that we're about to hit 5:00 p.m. on
[47:28] Thursday night and that's when we get a
[47:30] huge influx of people coming home from
[47:32] work. Well, if they double the price of
[47:34] that blueberry package, it's probably
[47:37] going to sell. And so grocery stores
[47:40] have very low margins. There's not a lot
[47:42] of technology or intelligence when it
[47:44] comes to this dynamic pricing, etc. And
[47:46] so I'm very torn on that type of idea
[47:48] because on one hand you're like hey you
[47:50] know nobody likes change including me
[47:53] but there's like a gamification also
[47:54] like hey how do you maybe use that to
[47:56] your advantage and find lower prices at
[47:58] certain times but the grocery store is
[48:00] only doing it because it's going to help
[48:00] them make more money and so it does feel
[48:03] like we talk about AI from the sense of
[48:05] you know is it going to replace human
[48:06] labor is it going to do that like AI
[48:08] machine learning you know big data stuff
[48:10] like it's going to come to the grocery
[48:11] store it's going to come to all these
[48:12] areas and again that is a persistent
[48:14] demand for compute and it ties it into
[48:18] like how is this stuff going to affect
[48:19] your daily life even if you never go to
[48:20] claw or chat GPT like you may be on the
[48:23] receiving end of the AI in a very weird
[48:26] way like something like that.
[48:28] >> Yeah. I there's no way that's going to
[48:29] happen at every grocery store. So maybe
[48:31] at the higherend ones it'll happen. Um
[48:33] and the reason I say that is because I
[48:35] mean don't we have a mayor that's
[48:37] focused on the government running the
[48:39] grocery stores? Well, if you don't know,
[48:42] uh if you go to Venezuela or other
[48:44] countries that have done government run,
[48:46] they actually have chalkboards for
[48:47] prices. They change it multiple times a
[48:49] day, not because they have AI,
[48:53] because they have socialism.
[48:54] >> Remember I remember I lived in Brazil at
[48:56] hyperinflation 7 years before I was
[48:58] there. And all of the people that were
[49:00] there, they think they're some of the
[49:02] smartest traders I've met. And they were
[49:03] like, "Yeah, when I was a kid, my
[49:04] parents would send me to the grocery
[49:06] store and I'd have to go in and the way
[49:08] that we found the the milk to buy was we
[49:11] went deep in the container to look for
[49:13] the one that they did the price tag the
[49:14] longest time ago cuz it would be the
[49:16] cheapest cuz they were resetting them
[49:18] every hour." So, I I I've I've been
[49:20] associated with it. But the reason I
[49:21] bring that up is I I took my kids um two
[49:24] of my kids to the Knicks game this week
[49:26] >> and they're both really big fans, but
[49:28] they can't afford to go to the games
[49:30] without me paying for them. What tickets
[49:32] were what, 500 bucks?
[49:33] >> Uh,
[49:34] >> if you get better seats, maybe a
[49:35] thousand.
[49:36] >> No, they they were 500 bucks a piece.
[49:38] >> Uh,
[49:40] >> a little bit higher. Um, the the reason
[49:42] I bring this up is that's what's
[49:44] happened to sports games. Um, now again,
[49:46] that's
[49:47] >> from youth sports all the way up to
[49:48] professional.
[49:48] >> Now, that's entertainment.
[49:50] >> I view that as a discretionary item.
[49:53] >> Um, groceries are not a discretionary
[49:56] item. So, if you've got a kid who's at
[49:58] home with someone who's living paycheck
[50:00] to paycheck and all of a sudden the
[50:01] blueberries are $38 and that kid loves
[50:03] blueberries. I think that can happen in
[50:05] the high-end stores, but I think if this
[50:07] was already going to happen, um, didn't
[50:09] Amazon go have the little walk in, pay
[50:11] for everything, go out. I don't know if
[50:12] those stores are even still open
[50:13] anymore. I try not to hang.
[50:15] >> But, but, but this is interesting,
[50:16] right? So, like if we think of like
[50:18] actual reality on the ground,
[50:20] discretionary spending. Okay, so the
[50:22] tickets are 500 bucks, a,000 bucks,
[50:24] right? Um, I couldn't go because I was
[50:26] traveling during one of these, but I
[50:27] looked to see what what were the
[50:28] tickets. And, you know, for those that
[50:30] don't know MSG, there's basically, you
[50:32] know, you've got kind of higher uh
[50:34] seats. Those obviously are cheaper as
[50:35] you get closer to the the floor that
[50:37] they're more expensive. But some of the
[50:39] tickets, and this is, we're not even
[50:40] talking about Eastern Conference finals.
[50:42] We're talking about, you know, the
[50:42] semi-finals.
[50:44] >> Thousands of dollars for some of these
[50:45] seats.
[50:46] >> Sold out though, right?
[50:48] >> Yeah. And so always it
[50:50] >> it's always this thing of like it New
[50:52] York may be somewhat unique, but I think
[50:54] this happening across the country. Even
[50:56] though the prices are going up and you,
[50:58] me, and everyone watching this or
[50:59] listening to this are going to complain,
[51:01] they're still sold out. It's kind of
[51:03] like college. Everyone's like, "Oh, it's
[51:05] $80,000."
[51:07] They turn away. 94% of the people who
[51:10] apply. And so there is this um you know
[51:14] kind of recognition of maybe it's
[51:16] actually underpriced given the demand
[51:18] they have
[51:20] right if they add another 10,000 seats
[51:22] to MSG from a just a pure objective
[51:25] economic standpoint they probably would
[51:27] sell the tickets.
[51:29] >> Yeah they would. But again it it gets
[51:31] into the point that the wealth that's at
[51:35] the top end
[51:37] >> is not a little wealthy. It's super
[51:38] wealthy. Um, and again, the numbers are
[51:41] pretty staggering compared to the bottom
[51:44] 50% in the economy. So, you know, I I've
[51:47] mentioned Joseph Shumper on here, and I
[51:49] I believe that this is the reason why I
[51:52] created a payw wall for people. Um, the
[51:55] nicest messages I get from people are
[51:57] how I'm helping them with embracing AI,
[52:01] trying different things, giving some of
[52:03] the tips that I think are important for
[52:05] you to stay ahead of things so you can
[52:06] get a job. because if you do know how to
[52:08] use artificial intelligence, you will be
[52:10] able to get a job. There's no question
[52:12] about it. Um, at the same time being
[52:14] involved in the stock market, I I really
[52:16] do think if you're really smart about
[52:18] the way you deal with things and you
[52:20] follow this decade long $90 trillion
[52:23] that's going in the market and you
[52:24] recognize that a lot of these companies
[52:25] are just not priced properly for that
[52:27] going on, you can have some periods
[52:31] where you don't make money where we have
[52:33] one of those speed crashes where the
[52:34] market falls and DRAM prices fall
[52:36] whatever 20 30%. um that is going to
[52:39] happen, but you shouldn't care about the
[52:41] 20 to 30% and you shouldn't have a
[52:43] long-term memory and you should be
[52:44] moving into the stuff that is the new
[52:46] story to go in. So, I do think you have
[52:48] to adapt to the environment you're in.
[52:50] The very positive side and again to use
[52:53] Micron as an example, the PE Micron is
[52:56] trading at six times next year's
[52:59] earnings with the growth rate, let's
[53:03] assume the smallest it'll be is 60%.
[53:06] Nvidia's earnings are growing at 70% a
[53:09] year. Their multiple is 24. So PEG
[53:13] ratio, I mean, you don't get these kinds
[53:15] of opportunities to have a company
[53:17] that's growing their earnings at 50 70%
[53:19] and still have a multiple. Think about
[53:21] where it would be pricing as a startup
[53:22] business. So the reason it's there and
[53:26] the only reason it's there and I will
[53:27] tell you this is a fact from I talk to
[53:31] let's assume a couple hundred hedge
[53:32] funds a year and between mutual funds,
[53:35] pension funds, let's assume that the
[53:36] total amount of institutional people I
[53:38] talked to in a year is a few hundred.
[53:42] They've missed the trade.
[53:45] That's it. Like the majority I've I've
[53:48] not heard people say they they made it.
[53:50] Now do I know some of them that are in?
[53:52] Yes. It's not 0 and 300, but let's
[53:55] assume a hundred of them, a third of
[53:56] them have been in semiconductors at a
[53:59] reasonable price. The majority can't buy
[54:01] it at these levels. They're waiting for
[54:03] a pullback or a recession. So, I just
[54:05] think people should realize that the
[54:06] reason these things, in my opinion, are
[54:08] still so cheap is because institutions
[54:11] just won't buy them at these levels. And
[54:13] if they do, they're just buying small
[54:14] amounts.
[54:15] >> I am looking for uh here we go. um
[54:20] a guy on Twitter named Joseph Jax he
[54:23] tweeted out uh a prediction so uh his
[54:26] thought process but he said anthropic
[54:28] will surpass alphabet in revenue by mid
[54:32] 2028. He says this is not a bull case or
[54:34] an acceleration scenario is a
[54:36] continuation of the curve already in
[54:38] evidence. Anthropics AR went from a
[54:40] billion in January 25 to 9 billion in
[54:42] December 25 to 30 billion in April 2026.
[54:46] Um, and now we're at 44 billion. Um,
[54:48] what they're saying it's a 3.3x step in
[54:52] a single 4-month window, and the curve
[54:54] has been steepening, not flattening.
[54:56] >> Mhm.
[54:56] >> He says, "My projection actually assumes
[54:58] deceleration from here." So they'll be
[55:00] at 100 billion by the end of 2026, 340
[55:02] billion in 2027, 850 billion in 2028,
[55:06] and then 1.4 trillion in 2029.
[55:08] >> And then you cross over with Alphabet
[55:10] happens around somewhere $575 billion or
[55:12] so in mid 2028. Not because Anthropic
[55:14] accelerates beyond today's pace, but
[55:16] because Alphabet, which has been locked
[55:18] in at about 15% year-over-year growth in
[55:20] mature ads and cloud business, cannot
[55:22] match enterprise AI's adoption physics.
[55:25] Do you think something like that could
[55:26] happen? Like, does that sound crazy to
[55:28] you just off the the top of uh hearing
[55:30] it?
[55:31] >> Do I think it could? Yes. Um
[55:36] I've kind of
[55:37] >> That's crazy. Well, it but again that
[55:40] the reason it's possible is because so
[55:42] many people doubt it. I mean, most
[55:45] people think it's a bubble still. I I I
[55:47] hate to say it, but rather than So, a
[55:50] bubble is by definition they think
[55:52] there's a better entry point. So, I
[55:53] don't think anyone disagrees with AI
[55:55] anymore. I just think buying now makes
[55:57] no sense to them.
[55:59] >> What you're saying and what or what
[56:01] Joseph is saying is exactly the problem.
[56:04] If that occurs, it's not the size of the
[56:07] numbers, it's the consistency because
[56:09] for that to happen, Micron needs to be
[56:12] higher. Marll who everything has every
[56:15] everything that has worked needs to be
[56:17] higher because that's the only way that
[56:19] works. Their revenue is completely
[56:21] dependent on those two layers of the
[56:24] stack. So I will keep saying it again
[56:26] and again. Nobody on the institutional
[56:29] side was ready for this and it got away
[56:31] from them too fast. End of story. Now,
[56:35] if you guys are sitting at home trading
[56:36] these names, again, I've said, okay,
[56:39] I've reduced my I didn't say I sold all
[56:41] of it. I'm staying in a third of it. It
[56:43] and I won't buy any more unless it
[56:44] falls. And the only reason I would buy
[56:46] it if it falls is if there's a panic and
[56:48] I see things going down, I will buy
[56:50] more. I haven't sold anything in Marvel
[56:52] worth anything. So, if anything, I sold
[56:54] 10%. And that was just being
[56:56] disciplined. But again, I move that
[56:57] money into things that I think will
[56:58] outperform. But if you ask me, Marll is
[57:01] still something that I think will
[57:02] outperform Micron from here. There's
[57:04] other stocks like Infinion and other
[57:06] power semi-names which are just starting
[57:08] to me. And the reason they're just
[57:10] starting is because I'm looking at the
[57:12] phones, the computers, the cars, then
[57:15] the humanoids, all the modern warfare.
[57:18] Silver to me is a no-brainer for me. If
[57:21] people want to get involved in it,
[57:22] that's great. I I I just think this
[57:24] build that's going to happen because I
[57:25] believe the Anthropic either Anthropic
[57:27] will get those numbers or someone else
[57:29] will.
[57:29] >> I'm laughing because I know people at
[57:31] home are hearing you start to throw out
[57:33] names of companies like more Jordy, more
[57:35] more give us the names.
[57:37] >> Go to the subscriber site. You guys can
[57:39] see whatever you want.
[57:40] >> What a pro. What a pro. What's the
[57:43] website?
[57:45] >> Just type in Jordy Vesser AI Macro
[57:48] Nexus. You'll find whatever you need.
[57:51] All right. uh what's going to be in uh
[57:53] this week's video?
[57:55] >> Uh it's gonna focus a lot on on parabas
[57:59] and and again I want to make sure that I
[58:01] highlight to people who are worried that
[58:05] are reading from I I legitimate people
[58:08] these people have been through markets
[58:09] for a long time and maybe they're right.
[58:11] Um, it did feel a little
[58:14] bubbly this week in terms of DRAM, but
[58:18] again, I think there's a couple ways for
[58:19] this to happen. And maybe they just
[58:20] underperform. Software went up this week
[58:22] because you got some good earnings from
[58:23] Data Dog and Fortnet. Like there's some
[58:27] companies in the cyber and the analytics
[58:30] side that are separating themselves from
[58:32] the Adobe's and the the seatbased
[58:34] software names. So maybe software goes
[58:36] higher and semi kind of underperform a
[58:39] period of a month or two. Uh, I I'm
[58:42] going to cover a lot of that, but I'm
[58:44] really going to go through how important
[58:45] Nvidia is. We're going to have the China
[58:48] um US meeting, which it, believe it or
[58:51] not, is not getting enough attention,
[58:52] especially since the straight is still
[58:54] shut. Um, I'm going to cover a little
[58:57] bit of all that and whatever else I can
[58:59] go through for people.
[59:00] >> All right, go to Jordy Visser on
[59:02] YouTube. Go and subscribe there or uh
[59:05] Jordi Visser AI macro Nexus uh research
[59:08] as well. Talk to you guys next week.