The Fed Bluff, The AI Bubble & The Bitcoin Bottom

[0:02] Yo, welcome back. How are you guys?
[0:06] What's going on?
[0:08] You are listening to the Jack Mallers
[0:10] Show. I am your host Jack and this is
[0:13] yet another edition of Mailbag Monday
[0:16] episode 125.
[0:20] Today's episode is titled The Feds
[0:23] Bluff, the AI bubble,
[0:26] and the Bitcoin bottom.
[0:28] I'll follow up on my claim that I think
[0:31] Fed hawkishness is noise and misleading,
[0:35] arguably intentionally.
[0:37] We'll talk about some kinks in the armor
[0:39] of the AI bubble, some recent updates
[0:42] that are giving weakness to things like
[0:43] the Nasdaq, the Mag 7, some of the AI
[0:46] narrative.
[0:47] And on top of that, pull on the Bitcoin
[0:50] bottom thread a little bit. How are we
[0:51] doing? What are some of the metrics that
[0:53] I typically look at as Bitcoin bottoms?
[0:55] We get a little bit of a price pump. Uh,
[0:59] everyone's euphoric online. I mean,
[1:01] we're sitting at 64K.
[1:03] Uh, but we'll take a look at all that
[1:05] and then obviously I don't have a
[1:07] strategy Saylor section in here. I
[1:09] already told you guys not really going
[1:11] to make that a mainstay. Uh, if you want
[1:14] me to talk about it, obviously they sold
[1:17] some Bitcoin today or they did last week
[1:19] and they announced it today. If you have
[1:21] questions about that, if you want some
[1:23] thoughts, leave it in the live chat and
[1:26] Dylan can make sure that I address it.
[1:28] If not though, I don't have anything
[1:30] planned, just an FYI. So, it's up to you
[1:32] guys if I talked about it or not.
[1:35] With that being said, let's timestamp
[1:37] this so that we can get into it.
[1:39] It is July 6th, 5:03 p.m. Central Time
[1:44] and I'm talking to you all at a Bitcoin
[1:46] price of 64,350
[1:50] US dollars. That puts Bitcoin's market
[1:52] cap at 1.29
[1:55] trillion US dollars.
[1:57] Our all-time high sits at 126,160.
[2:01] We are 49% down from that all-time high
[2:05] made on October 6th, 2025,
[2:08] 273 days ago.
[2:11] The last Bitcoin block mined since I hit
[2:14] stream was block height 956,952.
[2:21] Okay, without further ado, let's get
[2:23] into this episode. I will have to end it
[2:25] before the World Cup US game kicks off.
[2:27] You all know that. I'll get into the
[2:29] World Cup later on in this episode,
[2:30] believe it or not, Bitcoin show, but is
[2:33] it really?
[2:34] Um so, we've got, call it an hour and a
[2:36] half today.
[2:38] As always,
[2:40] for the last month or so now, maybe
[2:42] longer, we kick off every single episode
[2:44] with before you waste time, answer these
[2:47] first in regards to the US-Iran
[2:49] conflict. We're not going to chase
[2:51] politicians and their headlines. We are
[2:53] going try and stick to the facts. So,
[2:56] question one, is the Strait of Hormuz
[2:58] still closed? Question two, is the
[3:01] conflict still ongoing? Question three,
[3:03] are global supply chains still
[3:05] disrupted? Question four, can global
[3:07] debt survive this disruption? Until
[3:11] these are answered, the political noise
[3:13] is irrelevant, irrelevant.
[3:16] So,
[3:17] is the conflict still ongoing? I found
[3:20] this headline from Axios
[3:22] laugh out loud funny. US and Iran to
[3:25] take a week off from talks. So, is the
[3:28] conflict ongoing? Not only is it
[3:30] ongoing, it's on lunch break.
[3:34] >> [laughter]
[3:35] >> It's on lunch break. We'll pick it back
[3:37] up when everyone's full, when everyone's
[3:39] back from the beach. So, we're still in
[3:43] this 60-day, mind you, keeping up with
[3:47] hiatus, ceasefires.
[3:49] We agreed to hopefully agree on agreeing
[3:52] to agree.
[3:54] It's hard to keep up with.
[3:56] I think we're still in a 60-day
[3:58] ceasefire window, okay, between the US
[4:00] and Iran. That hasn't stopped Israel, I
[4:03] guess. I don't know. I'm I'll tell you
[4:05] guys, I'm not wasting my time here, but
[4:07] is the conflict still ongoing? Seemingly
[4:09] so.
[4:11] Uh but we're on lunch break. It looks
[4:13] like we're taking a week off from
[4:14] talking. Everyone was running their
[4:16] mouths so much and typing so many
[4:17] headlines that we needed a break. Uh in
[4:20] regards to the Strait of Hormuz, this
[4:22] chart to me was interesting. So, uh for
[4:24] those listening, what's on the screen is
[4:27] the Strait of Hormuz crossings is in
[4:29] white
[4:30] and the 2-year forward crude oil prices
[4:33] is in yellow.
[4:34] And you can see the yellow line coming
[4:36] down, so oil getting cheaper again
[4:39] a- as the crossings through the Strait
[4:41] of Hormuz in white increases. Now,
[4:45] we were since the beginning of March at
[4:47] zero effectively crosses through the
[4:49] Strait of Hormuz.
[4:51] We are now we got up to 20,
[4:53] but now we're trending back down. The
[4:55] live print as of yesterday was 12. So,
[4:58] we went from zero to 12
[5:00] when a normal day was around 60 to 80,
[5:04] okay? So, is the Strait of Hormuz back
[5:06] to functioning normally and open?
[5:09] I think it'd be a lie to say it is. Now,
[5:12] are we in a better spot than we were in
[5:14] March? Sure.
[5:16] Uh oil, the US and I we've talked about
[5:18] this on the show, the US has gone out of
[5:20] its way to try and get oil prices down.
[5:23] Depletion of the strategic petroleum
[5:25] reserves, depletion of reserves all over
[5:26] the world. Doesn't matter where you are
[5:28] and who you are. Depletion of reserves,
[5:30] I mean, Trump came out today and said he
[5:33] sat down with Walmart and got them to
[5:35] lower their pricing on beef. I mean, the
[5:38] attempt at curbing inflation and the
[5:40] attempt at suppressing oil prices has
[5:43] been immense. And so, the 2-year forward
[5:46] crude oil is coming down with the
[5:47] expectation that the straight will open.
[5:49] I continue to believe that everything
[5:52] Warsh is saying, everything Trump has
[5:53] been saying, where inflation sits, the
[5:56] overall mathematics of fiscal dominance,
[5:59] and the sovereign debt pending crisis,
[6:02] this Iran conflict cannot last much
[6:05] longer. I think the US is really trying
[6:07] to find a way. I mean, the last rumors
[6:09] we heard is that Trump was willing to
[6:12] settle with Iran
[6:14] a payment number that was far larger
[6:16] than what the Obama administration gave.
[6:18] So, the the level of concessions that
[6:21] the US seemingly is okay to make, as
[6:23] long as I don't, you know, obviously the
[6:26] latest rhetoric from Trump is no no
[6:28] nuclear weapon, no nuclear weapon,
[6:29] whatever. Now, I'm I'm already veering
[6:31] too far into politics. I already can I
[6:33] can see my YouTube comment section right
[6:35] now. I don't know, but is the Hormuz
[6:39] Strait of Hormuz open?
[6:40] Not really, more than it was in March,
[6:43] but a lot less than it was before this
[6:45] all started. And is the conflict over?
[6:48] No, in fact, it's on lunch break. So, we
[6:51] move on. We're not going to waste any
[6:52] more time. We will check back in next
[6:55] week, but that's enough conflict, war,
[6:58] politicking for this show. So, with
[7:01] that, chapter one, stay humble and stack
[7:04] sats. And that's the title the subtitle
[7:06] of the chapter, don't believe the Fed's
[7:09] [ __ ] and don't let this market wear
[7:12] you down.
[7:14] For context,
[7:16] last episode, and maybe even the episode
[7:18] before that, um
[7:19] Warsh, Kevin Warsh, the new Federal
[7:21] Reserve chair, has come out and has been
[7:23] perceived to be a hawk, which means
[7:26] tightening monetary policy. That, you
[7:29] know, for risk assets, for things like
[7:30] Bitcoin, that could be perceived to be
[7:31] bearish. It's basically saying,
[7:34] I'm not opposed to hiking rates. I got
[7:36] to fight this inflation thing. Um
[7:38] because of the conflict in Iran, because
[7:40] of blah blah blah, inflation is here,
[7:42] and everyone thinks I'm going to slash
[7:45] rates cuz that's what Trump wants, and I
[7:46] was Trump's puppet, but I'm not going to
[7:49] do that. I'm going to hike rates. And
[7:50] the market started to price in rate
[7:52] hikes, and as I talked about last
[7:54] episode, we've seen some strengthening
[7:55] to the dollar. Now, I'm on record
[7:58] calling [ __ ] I do not think they
[8:00] will hike rates. In fact, I think they
[8:02] will justify cutting rates. I think the
[8:03] market is way too over their skis into
[8:07] pricing in rate hikes. Now, that's my
[8:09] opinion. I'm wrong all the time, but I'm
[8:11] on the record. I wanted to follow up
[8:13] this week because I'm even more
[8:15] convinced after seeing more data. So, my
[8:18] stay humble and stack sats, the message
[8:19] here is
[8:21] don't let these guys scare you out of
[8:22] your position. Don't let these guys wear
[8:24] you out of your position. Summers for
[8:26] Bitcoin typically are grueling and hard
[8:29] in a bear market because a lot of money,
[8:32] I mean, a lot of money right now is at
[8:35] the World Cup. A lot of money right now,
[8:37] Trump is focusing on reversing red cards
[8:40] as opposed to reversing the Iran
[8:41] conflict. Iran conflict's taking a week
[8:43] off. Trump is at the World Cup. A lot of
[8:47] money is on vacation right now. So, you
[8:49] know, that's the sell in May go away
[8:51] rhetoric, right? Is that sell in May,
[8:53] come back in the fall. That's when
[8:56] midterms and markets will heat up again.
[8:58] And so, these summers can feel grueling.
[9:00] They can wear you down. You've got the
[9:02] Fed chair claiming he's a hawk. There's
[9:04] no way. And so, stay humble and stack
[9:07] sats continues to be my message.
[9:10] So, slide one, I still don't believe
[9:12] this Warsh guy. I I call [ __ ] on the
[9:15] Fed. I thought this tweetstorm from
[9:18] Jeffrey here summed up my thoughts
[9:21] rather eloquently, so I will read it.
[9:23] These are He tweeted a little thread,
[9:26] and I patched it together here on the
[9:27] slide, but we've got a lot of podcast
[9:29] listeners that aren't always looking at
[9:31] the YouTube stream, so uh let me read
[9:33] this aloud.
[9:35] So, why is Warsh telling a charade to
[9:37] the market, making people believe he
[9:40] will raise rates while he can't in
[9:42] fiscal dominance unless he wants more
[9:44] inflation? Remember, higher rates causes
[9:48] higher inflation in fiscal dominance.
[9:50] Follow the logic and bear with me. Do
[9:53] not be fooled. In fiscal dominance, you
[9:55] produce higher inflation via an
[9:57] increased interest burden, which needs
[9:59] to be further monetized. Remember the
[10:02] reserves management policy in December
[10:04] of 2025? It's fiscal deficit
[10:07] monetization. More interest burden, more
[10:10] monetization, which equals more
[10:11] inflation. I'm going to pause for a
[10:13] second. Now, we're entering Jack
[10:15] commentary. This is correct. Now, people
[10:19] will say, "Oh, well, we raised rates 20
[10:21] years ago, 30 years ago, 40 years ago,
[10:23] 50 years ago." Yeah, but our debt-to-GDP
[10:25] wasn't 130%. We didn't have $40 worth of
[10:28] debt. You guys have to remember, the
[10:30] person that eats dust the most when
[10:33] rates are raised is the US government,
[10:35] because who's the most in debt? Who
[10:37] carries a $40 bill? The US government.
[10:40] So, when they raise rates, you know who
[10:42] it hurts the most? The government.
[10:46] And so, the only way the government can
[10:48] actually get away with this level of
[10:50] debt burden, we don't have the revenue
[10:53] and the cash flow to pay off not only
[10:55] the debt, but the mere interest. So, how
[10:58] do we get away with it? We monetize the
[11:00] debt. Monetization of the debt is highly
[11:03] inflationary.
[11:05] So, the whole point, and and I've talked
[11:07] about this on the show since I started
[11:09] the show, is we're in an era of fiscal
[11:11] dominance. The Fed matters far less
[11:14] unless the Fed is willing to crash Pax
[11:17] Americana in the Western world as we
[11:20] know it. This modern-day West, post-1971
[11:24] fiat regime, is entirely predicated on
[11:28] money printing, debt, borrowing from
[11:31] future genera- generations, and war.
[11:34] It is this modern-day fiat that I am so
[11:37] grotesquely against and that Bitcoin is
[11:40] trying to solve for.
[11:43] And so, in this world of fiscal
[11:45] dominance, the Fed doesn't matter unless
[11:47] they are utterly and completely willing
[11:50] to jack rates up in the face of the US
[11:52] government and effectively cause a
[11:53] sovereign debt crisis. Now, we all know
[11:56] that that's not a thing. The Fed is
[11:58] highly politicized, has been captured,
[12:00] they don't act independently, and even
[12:02] if they tried,
[12:04] the US government wouldn't let them.
[12:07] And so, the notion that raising rates
[12:10] would somehow fight inflation is
[12:13] [ __ ]
[12:14] It's [ __ ] Why didn't the fastest
[12:16] rate hike in the history of the Federal
[12:19] Reserve
[12:20] get us back down to our 2% inflation
[12:22] target?
[12:23] We still have inflation.
[12:27] So, the notion that raising rates will
[12:30] curb inflation is on its face a lie when
[12:33] you're when you have a government that's
[12:35] in this much debt.
[12:38] You cannot analyze
[12:40] macroeconomics, monetary policy,
[12:43] decisions the Fed makes without
[12:44] incorporating the fact that the world's
[12:47] debt to GDP, not even just the US,
[12:50] global debt to GDP is over 300%.
[12:52] American debt to GDP is approaching
[12:54] 130%. These are untenable levels. The
[12:57] only thing that drives monetary policy
[13:00] and credit and the supply of fiat
[13:02] currency is the sovereigns, is fiscal
[13:05] dominance, period. Okay, so I continue
[13:08] the threat.
[13:09] But, if the market believes that Now, so
[13:13] hold on. Let me rewind.
[13:14] He says, "Don't be fooled in fiscal
[13:16] dominance, you produce higher inflation
[13:18] via an increased interest burden, which
[13:20] needs to be further monetized. Remember
[13:22] the reserves management of December
[13:23] 2025? It's fiscal deficit monetization.
[13:27] If you add more interest burden, you add
[13:29] more monetization which adds to
[13:31] inflation. But, if the market believes
[13:34] his charade and forgets for a while that
[13:37] more interest burden will increase
[13:39] monetization which means higher
[13:41] inflation, they will pump the dollar
[13:44] until the fall of 2026.
[13:47] And then in US dollar terms, oil will
[13:49] drop even lower. And then, ta-da, Warsh
[13:53] will have an excuse to lower interest
[13:55] rates and hopefully the Treasury
[13:57] consolidates the spending which is the
[13:59] real source of inflation. This is why
[14:02] the US gets the benefit of a more
[14:04] negative RG so much needed for sovereign
[14:08] debt relief. This is this was a very
[14:11] eloquent way
[14:13] of what I tried to explain to you guys
[14:15] last episode. Warsh coming out and
[14:18] saying the committee is hawkish, we're
[14:20] ready to fight inflation, we're ready to
[14:21] hike rates is such a pile of [ __ ]
[14:24] because of the level of debt the US is
[14:26] in, hiking rates would actually add to
[14:29] inflation because we'd have to further
[14:31] monetize the debt because the debt
[14:33] burden would be increased cuz if you
[14:35] raise the interest rate on a pile of
[14:37] debt on a $40 billion of debt, all these
[14:39] bills that these guys have to roll over,
[14:42] you're just adding gasoline to the fire.
[14:45] The most prudent thing to do and what I
[14:47] expect them to do for further notice is
[14:49] probably nothing at all.
[14:52] But, why would they be giving this
[14:54] rhetoric and this messaging? Well, if
[14:56] the market believes this, then everyone
[14:59] will go bullish dollar.
[15:01] And bullish dollar will help them tame
[15:04] the price of oil.
[15:06] So,
[15:08] what has happened? Traders bullish on
[15:11] the dollar, speculators held $34.3
[15:13] billion
[15:14] in bullish USD wagers as of June 23rd.
[15:17] That's the most in over a year.
[15:19] So, the speculative market has gone more
[15:23] bullish dollar than anytime in the last
[15:25] 12 months. So, it seems like this idea,
[15:28] this thesis that I've been holding is
[15:29] starting to play out. And remind you,
[15:32] when the dollar goes bull, Bitcoin goes
[15:34] bear. Gold goes bear, right? It's a It's
[15:37] a It's an inverse way of saying strong
[15:39] dollar means weaker assets, weaker
[15:41] dollar means stronger assets. Obviously,
[15:44] asset inflation is the same way of
[15:47] saying a debasing dollar, right? Now,
[15:50] Bitcoin goes up in everything. Bitcoin's
[15:52] bullish against housing, bullish against
[15:54] food, bullish against dollar. But
[15:56] broadly speaking, the most bullish thing
[15:58] for Bitcoin is fiat collapsing. Is this
[16:01] whole deck of cards coming apart? And
[16:04] so, as you have these little instances
[16:06] where the dollar gets strong, like when
[16:08] the Fed chair comes out and huffs and
[16:10] puffs like the big bad wolf,
[16:13] then you're going to get
[16:15] a sell-off in assets and bullish dollar.
[16:17] Now,
[16:18] if you look into the actual data,
[16:20] though, the wage growth tracker, the
[16:22] 3-month moving average on medium wage
[16:24] growth is rolling over from post-COVID.
[16:27] So, this metric is declining.
[16:29] On top of that, the Fed's hawkish
[16:32] narrative
[16:33] is is
[16:35] coinciding as inflation is falling. So,
[16:38] as we see, the Strait of Hormuz is
[16:41] starting to see traffic, oil is starting
[16:42] to fall off, inflation is starting to
[16:44] top out. So, the Fed's hawkish narrative
[16:47] seems to be coinciding right when
[16:49] inflation tops out.
[16:52] So, the the data that I'm looking at,
[16:54] inflation is cooling off,
[16:56] and so is wage growth.
[17:00] So, to the earlier thread, this is a
[17:02] perfect perfect perfect if Wurst comes
[17:05] out, huffs and puffs at the market, the
[17:07] dollar strengthens, assets weaken,
[17:09] inflation cools off, and then he comes
[17:11] back in fall and says, "Look, look at
[17:13] the price of oil.
[17:15] Look at inflation tamed off.
[17:18] Now wage growth is really cooled off. We
[17:21] got to cut rates.
[17:23] That I'm just
[17:24] reiterating my point now with a little
[17:26] bit of data backing me. I do not buy the
[17:29] Fed hiking rates for a second. I think
[17:32] it's full of [ __ ] I think it's a
[17:34] charade. I think it's a bunch of acting.
[17:37] There's no way. Um well, I mean
[17:40] listen, what am I what do I know?
[17:41] There's of course a way. Of course, they
[17:43] can do whatever they want. Doesn't
[17:45] really matter too much to my life. I
[17:47] mean, it's not going to affect my rates
[17:49] really. I don't care. Um so, whatever.
[17:52] Uh but, I just don't buy it for a
[17:54] second. Um all the data I look at says a
[17:57] totally different story. Um it continues
[18:00] to aid though that this summer is just
[18:02] going to be kind of painful. My dad has
[18:05] always told us now, this little
[18:07] community that we're building here in
[18:08] this corner of the internet, my dad's
[18:10] always told us markets either scare you
[18:13] out or wear you out. And this summer
[18:15] feels like a wear you out. It's like,
[18:17] all right.
[18:18] We got every bearish catalyst. All of
[18:20] the indicators said we bottom. Can we
[18:22] start moving again? Can we go? Let's
[18:24] move here. And you've got the central
[18:26] planners drawing this market out,
[18:28] strengthening the dollar through
[18:30] uh through their verbage and through
[18:31] their words. You've got the
[18:33] administration, hey, we've agreed to
[18:35] agree to agree. Hey, an update, we've
[18:37] agreed to agree to agree to agree. Hey,
[18:39] we're taking a week off. Hey, we're
[18:40] going to focus on the World Cup. You're
[18:42] like, all right, enough, man. Open the
[18:44] [ __ ] straight, will you please? And
[18:47] it just feels like it's going to wear us
[18:48] down. We're not going to get a lot of
[18:50] action, a lot of clarity, maybe until
[18:52] the fall. It's going to be a brutal
[18:53] summer where everybody rich and famous
[18:57] is sitting courtside at all the big
[18:58] sporting events. They're at Madison
[19:00] Square Garden for the Knicks or Taylor
[19:01] Swift's wedding. They're at the World
[19:03] Cup. And we're just sitting here getting
[19:05] headline after headline, contradicting
[19:06] after contradiction. Everything this
[19:08] worst guy is saying flies in the face of
[19:10] mathematics. It just feels like one of
[19:13] those summers and you just got to stay
[19:14] humble. You just got to stack sats. Just
[19:17] got to focus on allowing the bear market
[19:19] to make you a better person. Earn more
[19:22] than you spend. All of the same things I
[19:24] say. That's my read on the market.
[19:26] Obviously, every Monday that goes by, if
[19:29] I get an instinct that it'll it changes,
[19:31] then I'll let you guys know. But,
[19:34] the data that I looked at week over week
[19:35] just reinforced how I felt about the Fed
[19:39] basically being full of [ __ ] with their
[19:41] hawkishness. I don't buy it for a
[19:43] second. And it seems like Bitcoin with
[19:45] this little bounce from 58 to 64,
[19:48] Bitcoin's on the same vibe I am. It's
[19:50] not buying it. It's not buying it. So,
[19:53] now I want to pivot to AI. Um
[19:56] I see a little kink in the armor, a
[19:59] little crack in the narrative, okay? The
[20:01] bubble might have a hole in it, okay?
[20:04] And the reason that that is so
[20:06] important, who cares? If AI turns out
[20:09] not to be the prophecy that they're
[20:10] claiming, you know, the reality is is AI
[20:13] useless and a failure? No. I use it. I
[20:16] use it to make this show. But, is AI
[20:18] going to solve all the problems they
[20:19] claim? Probably not. The truth is
[20:22] usually somewhere in the middle of the
[20:24] extremes, okay? Um and if that turns out
[20:28] to be the case for AI, who cares? I
[20:31] certainly don't give a [ __ ] Um I mean,
[20:33] I'll make use of whatever tools are at
[20:35] my leisure and build family, build
[20:37] community, build better money. I don't
[20:39] care. Why Why does it matter? Why is it
[20:41] relevant? Well, just to remind you guys,
[20:43] the entire US economy and therefore lots
[20:46] of the global economy have been built
[20:48] around AI narrative. Whether you like it
[20:50] or not, the United States has made AI a
[20:54] national emergency, national imperative,
[20:56] national security.
[20:58] We must win the AI race. It's as clear
[21:00] as day. I could have spent a lot more
[21:02] slides and a lot more time on this, but
[21:03] we got the World Cup today. We're not
[21:05] going to do that. But, right, left, and
[21:08] center, this administration has gone all
[21:10] in on AI, on reshoring, on commodities,
[21:14] on industrial production.
[21:16] Like, we are basically, how do I say,
[21:19] marking to market, truing up how short
[21:22] we were on physical commodities,
[21:24] physical infrastructure, on energy, on
[21:27] all things are It's basically taking
[21:30] electrons and turning it into
[21:31] intelligence.
[21:33] Okay? And if this AI bubble starts to
[21:36] crack and starts to show that it's not
[21:39] as promising, then you get a collapse of
[21:41] these cards, cuz there's so much
[21:43] investment, trillions and trillions of
[21:45] dollars in all 96% of the GDP growth
[21:49] over the last year has been tech and AI.
[21:53] And so, the rest of the economy has been
[21:56] in like a recession.
[21:58] And so, this thing has to work. It has
[22:01] to work. And I think that kinks in the
[22:05] in the armor of AI is actually a bullish
[22:08] indicator for Bitcoin, because all this
[22:11] money that's plowing into AI will be
[22:13] like, well, hold on a second. This might
[22:15] not be as safe of an investment as I
[22:17] thought, which is what always happens.
[22:19] It was like, oh, there's it's free
[22:21] money, NFTs were free money, ICOs were
[22:23] free money, uh meme coins were free
[22:26] money. Just punting in AI is free money.
[22:29] And then you have to run into things, uh
[22:32] like the the realities of the universe,
[22:34] Gresham's law, all sorts of like hard
[22:36] realities, and nothing is free money,
[22:38] and then you actually save in hard
[22:40] money. So, let me show you guys some of
[22:42] the kinks in the armor that I started to
[22:44] notice. One, Meta selling excess
[22:47] compute.
[22:48] So, hundreds of billions in AI
[22:50] infrastructure has been spent, and now
[22:52] they need to sell excess capacity. This
[22:55] flies in the face of the narrative that
[22:58] there's infinite amounts of demand for
[23:00] AI. There's just no supply. We're going
[23:03] to spend the next deca- decade building,
[23:05] building, building, building, building,
[23:07] and they can never sell enough.
[23:09] Well, what the [ __ ] is this? They have
[23:11] extra? They have like wholesale extra
[23:14] compute that they're willing to get off
[23:17] and just sell? It It came off as a very
[23:20] bizarre headline.
[23:22] I mean, Zuckerberg took a giant cash
[23:25] flow machine and pivoted from buybacks
[23:28] and excess cash reserves into debt, into
[23:32] capital-intensive investment, only to
[23:35] have a cloud business that sells the
[23:37] scraps after when there's not enough
[23:39] demand.
[23:40] So,
[23:42] the screenshot is Meta is building a
[23:44] cloud business to sell excess AI
[23:46] compute. Summary from Bloomberg. Meta
[23:49] Platforms Inc. is developing plans for a
[23:51] cloud infrastructure business to sell
[23:52] access to AI computing power and models,
[23:55] competing with industry leaders like
[23:56] Amazon Web Services, Microsoft's Azure,
[24:00] and Google Cloud. The company is
[24:02] considering selling access to various AI
[24:04] models hosted on its existing AI
[24:06] infrastructure, as well as raw computing
[24:08] capacity, as part of its Meta Compute
[24:11] initiative. Meta's plans to generate
[24:13] revenue from excess computing power are
[24:15] part of its efforts to return on its
[24:17] investment in AI infrastructure, which
[24:19] includes hundreds of billions of dollars
[24:22] spent on data centers and other
[24:23] infrastructure.
[24:25] Okay, so I read this headline and I'm
[24:26] like, whoops.
[24:28] I thought the return on an investment
[24:29] was automatic.
[24:31] However much money you needed, just
[24:33] spend it. This is money printing, free
[24:36] money. It's the digital gold rush. We're
[24:38] turning electrons into intelligence.
[24:41] There's infinite demand for
[24:42] intelligence. You're everyone's a
[24:45] customer. Everyone's got money to pay.
[24:48] In fact, Elon's telling us This is such
[24:50] an outrageous quote. We won't even need
[24:52] money anymore once this build out is
[24:54] done. Who needs money? Ev- The world is
[24:57] our oyster. Spend, spend, spend, spend,
[25:00] spend. And now they're running a cloud
[25:02] business to hopefully return all the
[25:04] hundreds of billions of dollars already
[25:06] spent. That screams to me that all of
[25:08] this hasn't totally been figured out
[25:11] yet, right? I don't know about you guys.
[25:13] Um now,
[25:15] uh this tweet from Paolo, uh shout out
[25:18] Paolo, is basically exactly what I'm
[25:22] saying in so many words. He writes, "AI
[25:25] big tech subsidizes compute to increase
[25:28] user count building expensive
[25:30] infrastructure/CapEx
[25:31] subject to fast decay, 3 to 5 years."
[25:34] So, they're building all this
[25:35] infrastructure, spending way more than
[25:37] they're earning, taking on debt. Mind
[25:39] you, this infrastructure decays every 3
[25:42] to 5 years. Okay? This is not
[25:44] infrastructure that's going to last
[25:46] thousands of years. They're going to
[25:48] have to rebuild this [ __ ] and redo this.
[25:50] It is so capitally intensive. We've
[25:52] talked about this. You're going from a
[25:53] business like Facebook, which you build
[25:56] one app and you pay engineers and
[25:59] servers to host it and it scales to
[26:01] billions of people with hundreds of
[26:02] billions of dollars of revenue.
[26:04] This new business is the exact opposite,
[26:08] very capitally intensive. Every single
[26:10] new model, every single new few years,
[26:12] you're going to need new infrastructure,
[26:14] new compute, new energy sourcing. Okay?
[26:17] So, Paolo writes, "There's a token price
[26:19] mismatch, profitability to timeline
[26:21] mismatch, cost of capital to maturity
[26:23] mismatch, and open source AI taking
[26:26] growing chunks of revenues. What could
[26:28] possibly go wrong?"
[26:31] Now, the word mismatch here, I don't
[26:33] know if he intended on this, but when
[26:35] you have a mismatch, you know, there's
[26:37] assets to liability mismatch. How about
[26:39] that mismatch? That's how [ __ ] blows up.
[26:42] Okay?
[26:43] When you borrow so much from your
[26:44] future,
[26:45] what if the profit doesn't meet the
[26:48] timeline?
[26:49] What if you need to raise the token
[26:51] prices, which destroys your actual
[26:53] active client base.
[26:55] What if the cost of capital to the
[26:57] maturity
[26:59] is mismatched? What if open source AI or
[27:03] Chinese competing models actually go to
[27:05] take a large chunk of market share?
[27:09] Well, then this whole thing kind of
[27:11] blows up a little bit. Now, it doesn't
[27:13] mean AI is going to die as an industry
[27:15] and it's going to be entirely
[27:16] irrelevant. Clearly, artificial
[27:18] intelligence is here to stay. My life is
[27:20] way better off for it. I'm sure you guys
[27:22] feel the same.
[27:23] But the question is all this GDP, all
[27:25] this growth, all this investment, the
[27:27] thing that blows up bubbles is
[27:29] malinvestment. That's when you need
[27:32] bailout. When you've borrowed from a ton
[27:35] of your future and you have incap-
[27:37] you're incapable of paying it back,
[27:39] someone has to realize that loss.
[27:41] Someone then has to lose.
[27:43] Typically, it's the people in the form
[27:45] of a bailout. Now,
[27:47] coinciding with all of this,
[27:49] this headline could not be missed. Open
[27:52] AI proposes a 5% stake to Trump
[27:55] administration to ease Washington's
[27:57] pressure.
[27:58] That is 42 and a half billion dollars
[28:01] worth of equity that they're offering
[28:02] the Trump administration. So, this is a
[28:04] CNBC article. The key points read, "Open
[28:07] AI proposed handing the US government a
[28:09] 5% stake in the company, according to
[28:11] the reports from the Financial Times.
[28:13] The potential holding would be worth
[28:15] roughly 42.6 billion dollars at the
[28:19] artificial intelligence startup's recent
[28:20] 852 billion dollar valuation. Open AI
[28:24] CEO Sam Altman reportedly argued that
[28:27] the move was the best way to share the
[28:29] upside of AI with the public."
[28:32] Well,
[28:34] I don't have that short of a memory to
[28:37] remember that when Open AI's CFO, Sarah
[28:41] Friar, went to a Silicon Valley event
[28:43] and said that Open AI would be on board
[28:47] with having an official federal backstop
[28:50] for the investment of all the buildout.
[28:53] Do you guys remember this? We covered it
[28:55] on the show. It was less than a year ago
[28:57] where the OpenAI CFO went to an event
[28:59] and said, "The US government should give
[29:01] a backstop to this industry, you know,
[29:03] in the event that we actually can't make
[29:06] whole on this investment and we all are
[29:08] going to need bailouts. We can't lose
[29:10] this race to China. The US has made this
[29:12] a national security threat. We certainly
[29:14] don't want to have to act economically
[29:16] responsible and be bound by our own
[29:19] productive activity. We should just
[29:21] throw money at this shit." Yeah, there
[29:23] will be some malinvestment, but as long
[29:25] as the US government has our back with
[29:27] the with the ability of money printing,
[29:29] then we have a real chance at winning
[29:30] the AI race. And then there was such
[29:32] backlash to that. By the way, there's no
[29:34] mistakes, right? Putting out that to me,
[29:36] that was putting out a feeler of what
[29:38] inevitably internally everyone knows to
[29:41] be true. And then there was such
[29:43] backlash where where the people were
[29:46] like, "Hold on a second. There's such a
[29:47] concentration of wealth with this stuff.
[29:50] Elon's getting rich, Zuckerberg's
[29:51] getting rich, Sam Altman's getting rich.
[29:54] The people are getting their jobs
[29:55] taken." And there was such a political
[29:57] backlash that OpenAI CFO, this is what's
[30:00] on the right. Sarah Friar says company
[30:02] isn't seeking government backstop, just
[30:04] clarifying their prior prior comment. So
[30:06] came out, gave a teaser, everyone was
[30:08] like, "Whoa, whoa, whoa. How about [ __ ]
[30:11] you?"
[30:13] And then she says, "Go whoa, you guys
[30:14] are misinterpreting my words. I didn't
[30:16] say I wanted any relationship with the
[30:18] government." Only less than a year later
[30:20] OpenAI say, "I'm going to hand Trump 5%
[30:23] stake." What? To share wealth with the
[30:26] with the public? What the [ __ ] are you
[30:28] talking about? How does that benefit me?
[30:30] No, come on.
[30:32] To me, kinks in the armor. There might
[30:35] be a hole in the bubble.
[30:38] Okay?
[30:39] Meta seemingly has too much compute, not
[30:42] enough demand. That's not how the
[30:44] narrative was being spun.
[30:47] Now, Open AI getting in bed with the
[30:49] government, I mean, government-backed
[30:50] stock, government guarantee, bailout,
[30:53] stimulus to support this is to me as
[30:57] clear as day. Mind you, look at this.
[31:00] This is semiconductor concentration in
[31:02] the S&P 500. We've gone from 2%
[31:07] of representation from
[31:08] semi-semiconductors in the S&P 500 to
[31:10] 20%.
[31:12] And look at everything else. Everything
[31:13] else, obviously, if you do the reverse
[31:15] math, was at 98% and is now down to 80%.
[31:18] So, everything else is getting its ass
[31:20] kicked. This is dot-com vibes if I've
[31:22] ever seen it.
[31:24] I mean, the semiconductors being
[31:25] represented in the S&P 500 is just
[31:27] another way of just riding the AI wave,
[31:30] which again, I'm not saying AI is dead.
[31:33] I'm not saying there isn't a future. I
[31:35] actually think that most of the value
[31:37] will accrue to people like you and I.
[31:40] Like, we're going to get access to
[31:41] open-source, cheap tools. I mean, it's a
[31:43] race to the bottom. There's going to be
[31:45] a lot of spend, probably from
[31:48] governments and and effectively
[31:50] nationalized corporations to build out
[31:52] this physical infrastructure.
[31:54] And we all will be so much more
[31:57] productive for it. I gave a talk in
[31:58] Prague about how
[32:00] we all will be able to pursue arts again
[32:03] and our our true interest and passions
[32:05] again. We won't be slaves to just
[32:09] drudged labor like legal and compliance
[32:13] and [ __ ] accounting and tax
[32:15] reporting. We can do truly inspiring
[32:18] human work once more.
[32:21] But, I mean, this to me, again, kink in
[32:24] the armor, okay? It looks like now
[32:28] one of the most bullish things that can
[32:29] happen to Bitcoin is that this pops a
[32:33] little bit.
[32:34] Um, because this was sucking in so much
[32:36] capital. It was the new infinite money
[32:38] glitch. And as Bitcoiners, we've seen
[32:40] this before. Meme coins, ICOs, NFTs,
[32:45] all [ __ ] Ethereum, these things are
[32:48] perfect. This is where everyone needs to
[32:51] invest. Tell your grandmother, empty the
[32:53] 401k. AI AI AI. Uh guys,
[32:57] as we talked about on the show,
[33:00] reality We're governed by reality, by
[33:02] Mother Nature. At the end of the day,
[33:05] there's not enough room for everyone to
[33:07] get return on their investment. It was
[33:08] the most irrational, stupid thing. Um
[33:11] the free market will end up having to
[33:14] handle all this malinvestment. Looks
[33:16] like Zuckerberg overinvested, as he
[33:19] seemingly does from time to time.
[33:21] Remember the metaverse?
[33:23] Well,
[33:24] someone's got to realize that loss.
[33:27] And I have a feeling that the government
[33:28] is not going to be willing to lose the
[33:30] AI race. And so, I expect stimulus, and
[33:33] I expect but when there's
[33:36] my best guess is By the way, Bitcoin
[33:39] predicted all of this. Bitcoin started
[33:41] to sniff out that there wasn't enough
[33:43] liquidity, and there was malinvestment
[33:45] in the market months ago. Bitcoin topped
[33:47] out in October. Now, we're starting to
[33:49] see the kinks now. This is the same
[33:51] exact thing when FTX blew up before
[33:53] Silicon Valley Bank. When you have a
[33:55] truly free market, where information is
[33:57] abundant and accessible to everybody, a
[34:00] truly free market tells you the truth.
[34:04] Takes no prisoners.
[34:06] Okay? I've said it time and time again.
[34:08] If you want to know the truth, Bitcoin
[34:11] is your mirror.
[34:14] Don't ask Bitcoin to be gentle. Ask
[34:17] Bitcoin to be truthful, and become the
[34:19] type of person that can handle the
[34:21] truth.
[34:23] Don't ask Bitcoin to change. If you have
[34:26] a problem with Bitcoin, and therefore
[34:28] the truth, I recommend you figure it
[34:30] out, and you change.
[34:33] So, Bitcoin's already told me the
[34:34] writing was on the wall. I mean, it's
[34:37] not surprising, okay? But, I think it's
[34:40] very bullish because we can the bubble
[34:42] finally pops, the liquidity's going to
[34:44] have to come, and I think this time
[34:46] around investors aren't going to be so
[34:47] blind to toss money into AI.
[34:50] I don't think it's just I don't think
[34:51] it's so obvious anymore.
[34:54] Honestly, at this point,
[34:56] is it is it obvious that all these AI
[34:59] investors in Anthropic and Open AI, are
[35:01] they going to get returns on their
[35:02] investment? I mean, it depends when you
[35:04] invested, of course. You're going to
[35:05] hear the stories of the seed investor in
[35:07] Anthropic and how they invested $10,000
[35:10] and now own an uh country. Yeah, okay.
[35:13] Cool story, bro. But, I'm talking about
[35:15] more practical people that have been
[35:17] investing in this build-out, investing
[35:18] hundreds of billions of dollars,
[35:20] trillions of dollars as an industry. Are
[35:22] they going to get a return on that
[35:23] investment?
[35:25] And I don't mean selling their bags to
[35:27] retail. That's not what I mean. I mean,
[35:29] are they going to generate enough profit
[35:32] to pay back the money invested? Not are
[35:36] they going to find enough liquidity to
[35:38] sell their bags? Let me Let's look at
[35:40] the SpaceX IPO, already underwater from
[35:43] its listing.
[35:45] Um so,
[35:48] we'll keep a close eye on this one cuz I
[35:50] I do think I mean, listen, like I never
[35:52] I don't have a speculative opinion on
[35:54] when and calling it the bubble popping
[35:57] is maybe too aggressive of terminology.
[35:59] I'm Again, I'm not calling death to the
[36:01] industry. I'm very excited about AI. I'm
[36:04] bullish AI, but I'm bullish open-source
[36:06] AI. I'm bullish what AI and Bitcoin can
[36:09] do as a combination to uh human
[36:13] renaissance, to a pursuent of arts, to
[36:16] uh bringing back culture again.
[36:19] Uh that's what I'm bullish on. I I'm not
[36:21] bullish that there's going to be
[36:23] a return on all this invested capital. I
[36:26] think that there's just been
[36:29] plenty of malinvestment, um total
[36:32] mismatch assets to liabilities, and all
[36:34] sorts of duration mismatches
[36:37] that Paulo pointed out. They're all over
[36:39] the place.
[36:40] And you're starting to see reality set
[36:43] in a little bit. And Bitcoin has been
[36:44] warning us that reality is cometh for
[36:48] many months now. So, you know, to a
[36:50] savvy Bitcoiner, it's no surprise. Take
[36:53] advantage of these moments. Um oh,
[36:55] there's going to be lots of distressed
[36:56] sellers, lots of distressed companies,
[36:59] lots of distressed balance sheets. Um
[37:01] buy their dips.
[37:03] You know, be strong when others are
[37:04] weak.
[37:06] That's how you take advantage of
[37:08] moments.
[37:09] So, have cash flow, spend less, earn
[37:12] more, do what you can, stack sats, turn
[37:14] on DCAs.
[37:16] And uh to me, obviously short-term,
[37:19] I could you could see some pain in risk
[37:23] assets.
[37:24] Um you can see some volatility, so be
[37:26] careful with things like leverage,
[37:28] right? Um don't live exceeding your
[37:30] means, right? Uh but I think medium to
[37:33] long-term, this is very, very, very,
[37:35] very bullish um because,
[37:37] you know, liquid the this story, the the
[37:39] notion that AI is going to bail us all
[37:41] out with ungodly amounts of
[37:43] productivity, solve every problem. And
[37:45] you know what's funny? In hindsight,
[37:47] it's always so obvious, right?
[37:50] It's like, did we really think that this
[37:52] technology was going to solve everyone's
[37:54] problem, cure everyone's debt? It was
[37:57] going to be so good that we didn't even
[37:58] need money anymore. We're going to look
[38:00] back at that Elon Musk interview and be
[38:02] like, wow, were we stupid? We thought we
[38:05] wouldn't need money anymore, that this
[38:07] thing would solve the $40 trillion worth
[38:08] of debt, and so somehow no one would
[38:11] have a job, but everyone would have a
[38:13] job. We didn't even think to ask like
[38:15] how that makes any sense. It was just It
[38:18] was just going to solve everything, and
[38:20] all the valuations and the headlines and
[38:22] Anthropic and this and that and
[38:23] everything that and and it reminds you
[38:26] of FTX, right? Like no one thought for a
[38:28] second how FT I mean, I remember telling
[38:31] Dylan, this Sam Bankman-Fried guy is so
[38:34] full of [ __ ] it's painfully obvious.
[38:37] And he was like, come on, man. Have you
[38:38] seen these valuations? Sequoia did the
[38:40] diligence. And then in hindsight, it's
[38:43] so obvious. Like no dub meme coins are
[38:46] going to end poorly. No [ __ ] cat picture
[38:49] NFTs were going to end poorly. No [ __ ]
[38:52] Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are not money
[38:57] that is going that society is going to
[38:59] adopt. Like come on, what were we
[39:01] thinking? It feels very similar.
[39:04] Like you cannot just pull Anyway, I
[39:06] digress. We'll see. We'll keep a close
[39:08] pulse on this as weeks go by. Um I mean,
[39:11] this is an industry that's too big to
[39:13] fail. So, I'm not saying it's going to
[39:14] fail. I do think though that there needs
[39:17] to be liquidity to support it and maybe
[39:19] just maybe that's what Bitcoin is
[39:22] already starting to sniff out going from
[39:24] 58 to 64. We'll keep a close eye, but if
[39:27] there is liquidity that is going to come
[39:29] and save this thing going into midterms,
[39:31] you know what will tell you first?
[39:34] Bitcoin will.
[39:35] So, chapter three, last chapter of the
[39:37] day, let's take a look at our old
[39:40] friend, our TikTok next block, don't
[39:43] mind Bitcoin, it's just forming a bottom
[39:46] and telling you the truth.
[39:49] All right, let's take a look at some of
[39:50] my metrics here in identifying a bottom.
[39:53] This is the MVRV ratio score. All this
[39:57] by the way, check on chain. Love that
[39:59] guy's stuff. Really good. He does some
[40:01] really good podcasts as well.
[40:04] Um so, I don't know. I don't feel like
[40:06] people don't get enough credit for their
[40:07] work.
[40:08] This episode I used a lot of forward
[40:10] guidance charts. I've shouted those guys
[40:13] out. Check on chain, the Bitcoin layer,
[40:17] Nick Bhatia and his team. So, making
[40:19] sure people get credit where it's due.
[40:21] These are his charts. You can see his
[40:23] check on chain logo in the middle.
[40:25] Um
[40:26] Okay, MVRV ratio Z-score. You can see uh
[40:31] where the prior two bear markets, they
[40:34] were about 10 months between for for you
[40:38] to be buying the bottom. We're about 6
[40:40] months in. That doesn't mean there's 4
[40:41] months left. Could be though. Could be.
[40:44] Ain't no telling.
[40:45] But, now is a great time to turn on
[40:48] those DCAs. And again, this type of
[40:51] timing would imply you've got a long
[40:55] grueling summer of chop chop chop chop
[40:57] chop, different narratives, AI
[41:00] narrative, strategy narratives, this
[41:02] [ __ ] that [ __ ] Keep your head
[41:04] down. Touch grass. Lift heavy things.
[41:07] Hang out with your family. Get some
[41:08] sunlight. Work hard. Earn more than you
[41:11] spend. Stack. Stay humble. But, this is
[41:14] the moment. We are in deep value
[41:17] territory. Can it go lower? Yeah.
[41:20] Could this already have been the bottom?
[41:21] Yeah. I don't know. Stay humble and
[41:23] stack sats. But, these are the moments
[41:26] when when you hear stories from, you
[41:29] know, guys like me that have been in
[41:30] Bitcoin for 14 years, you're like, "Holy
[41:32] [ __ ] you bought the dip after Mount
[41:34] Gox. What did that feel like? Was it so
[41:37] obvious?" No, it wasn't so obvious. It
[41:39] was [ __ ] painful. Everyone thought
[41:42] the industry was over. Everyone thought
[41:43] Bitcoin was dead. Everyone had moved on
[41:45] to other things. But, these are those
[41:47] moments.
[41:49] These are those moments. I just I don't
[41:50] know how else to tell you guys. I mean,
[41:52] I've I'm a veteran to the game. I've
[41:54] lived through this so many times. This
[41:56] is it. This is it.
[41:58] Just deep breath. Relax. You're you're
[42:02] you're never going to get the pico
[42:03] bottom. You're never going to have
[42:04] enough money to invest in Bitcoin as you
[42:06] dreamed, right? Not everything's going
[42:08] to go your way.
[42:10] But, you have some control over your
[42:13] destiny here.
[42:14] Just appreciate the moment and try and
[42:17] take advantage of it.
[42:18] So, this
[42:20] uh the Porco Po I can never pronounce
[42:21] this guy's name. He also does great
[42:23] podcast. Porcupolis
[42:25] Power Law.
[42:27] I think his first name's Matthew.
[42:29] Um his little metric
[42:31] uh the reason I thought this was
[42:32] interesting is it hasn't been this low
[42:35] since the bear market of 2015.
[42:38] And I thought this was interesting
[42:40] because as far as sentiment goes, we
[42:43] might be The bear market of 2015 was the
[42:46] worst I've ever and that was my first
[42:48] bear market. And is the worst sentiment
[42:53] maybe since then. That was so bad cuz
[42:56] mind you guys,
[42:57] not only did we have the collapse of Mt.
[43:00] Gox, but we had Silk [ __ ] Road.
[43:04] Let me take you back to Bitcoin at over
[43:07] a thousand dollars a coin. Our all-time
[43:09] high was around $1,200 back then. And
[43:11] then not only the biggest exchange,
[43:14] the only exchange. There was no other
[43:16] like it wasn't like, well, you have the
[43:18] BlackRock ETF and you also have
[43:20] Coinbase. No, [ __ ] that. I'm saying
[43:24] there was one core exchange back then.
[43:27] Like
[43:28] And and really
[43:29] my dad and I like we didn't really start
[43:31] buying until uh Coinbase came online cuz
[43:35] Mt. Gox was so sketchy.
[43:37] But, it was the only core exchange. That
[43:39] thing blows up and blows up not like it
[43:41] gets shut down cuz it didn't have a
[43:43] license. Like everyone's money's gone.
[43:48] And that was the same chapter when Silk
[43:50] Road
[43:52] blew up and Ross went to jail.
[43:55] And so you had Bitcoin is drug
[43:57] trafficking Ponzi money
[44:00] and everyone thought Bitcoin got hacked
[44:02] cuz Mt. Gox got hacked.
[44:05] There was no Bitcoin podcast, Bitcoin
[44:07] books, Bitcoin influencers. There was no
[44:09] Bitcoin standard. There was no mailbag
[44:11] Monday Jack Mallers show. There was none
[44:12] of this [ __ ]
[44:14] There was no
[44:15] regulatory clarity. There was the
[44:17] president of the United States didn't
[44:19] have Bitcoin in cold storage, which I'll
[44:21] talk about in a second. None of that.
[44:23] This was a time of like, oh, maybe the
[44:25] US government is going to over-regulate
[44:27] it. This industry is going to be dead.
[44:28] It was a good idea. And Bitcoin went
[44:30] from $1,200 to $250 over years.
[44:35] Multi-year bear market. It just grinded
[44:37] lower for years. It was so [ __ ]
[44:41] painful. And it the sentiment feels
[44:44] similar.
[44:45] Of just the level of
[44:48] Why are we like Bitcoin's almost lost
[44:50] its narrative a little bit. Like, why
[44:51] are we here again?
[44:53] Why would I invest in this thing? Is it
[44:55] It's not even the cool thing anymore.
[44:57] AI's cool. And Bitcoin faces this. It's
[45:00] not even the cool thing, Ethereum's
[45:01] cool. It's not even the cool thing, NFTs
[45:03] are cool. It's not even the cool thing,
[45:06] AI is cool.
[45:08] And I don't know, sentiment just feels
[45:11] that low to me, which is bizarre.
[45:14] And at 58k, too. So, anyway, food for
[45:18] thought. That bear market, I still I
[45:21] mean, we still no way sentiment is worse
[45:23] now than that bear market. I'm telling
[45:25] you guys, that was
[45:27] I mean, that and the block size wars are
[45:29] the only few times where I was like,
[45:31] holy [ __ ] is this thing not going to
[45:33] work? I mean, we're long past me ever
[45:36] having that passive thought, but
[45:38] yeah.
[45:39] Um so, just some signs of life here and
[45:42] some signs that not only does it feel
[45:44] like true capitulation, like people are
[45:47] in severe pain out there. People are
[45:50] questioning if Bitcoin's relevant, if AI
[45:53] is now the cool kid on the block, if
[45:55] Bitcoin Why do we need Bitcoin anymore?
[45:57] Isn't China stacking gold? We're going
[46:00] back on a gold standard. What's the
[46:01] point? Peter Schiff might have been
[46:03] right this whole time. Not only are we
[46:04] seeing pure capitulation pain, but we're
[46:08] seeing these classic divergence. So,
[46:10] again, I'm not a big chart guy. I don't
[46:12] typically draw lines on charts, but when
[46:14] you see I mean this is
[46:17] what usually marks these bottoms is when
[46:19] you get sellers just exhausted. So, cool
[46:22] thing about Bitcoin is there's a limited
[46:25] supply. There's only so much to go
[46:27] around to sell. And so, eventually, as
[46:30] long as there's a core group that still
[46:32] believes in this thing as money and is
[46:34] continuously monetizing it, then you get
[46:36] seller exhaustion. And the way to
[46:37] measure that is when the price continues
[46:40] to try and go down, but the momentum
[46:42] that's carrying it down gets weaker.
[46:45] That means you're getting less and less
[46:46] enthusiasm of people to dump this [ __ ]
[46:49] And so, what we can see is Bitcoin was
[46:51] at $60,000 bottom, and it broke that and
[46:54] got as low as 58, but the momentum that
[46:57] carried it to 58 was a fraction of what
[47:00] carried it to 60. And there's just far
[47:02] less momentum. It seems like the sellers
[47:05] and the people [ __ ] all over Bitcoin
[47:07] and the people that have a bunch of
[47:08] Bitcoin and are like, "Fuck this thing.
[47:10] I'm going to AI." are getting exhausted.
[47:12] There's barely any left. And
[47:15] I'll get into that in a second of just
[47:17] who really sets the price and who really
[47:19] stands the line, you know, cuz when
[47:21] Saylor said, uh "You know, without me
[47:24] Bitcoin would be $5,000 and a worthless
[47:27] project." I found that so offensive. So
[47:31] offensive for someone that's been
[47:32] working in the space for 14 years, and I
[47:34] haven't done [ __ ] in this industry
[47:35] compared to so many other people. That
[47:37] was so offensive. And I've heard that
[47:40] rhetoric a lot of without the ETFs and
[47:43] without treasury companies, Bitcoin
[47:45] wouldn't be [ __ ] That is so offensive,
[47:49] and it couldn't be further from the
[47:50] truth, um which I'll get into in a
[47:52] second.
[47:53] Uh
[47:54] But, the reason I bring that up is
[47:56] because when you look at a chart like
[47:58] this and you see sellers exhausted, the
[48:01] sellers are exhausted because people
[48:03] like us hold the line and say we're not
[48:06] [ __ ] selling. We're going to continue
[48:08] to turn on our DCAs and
[48:11] we like again, I've talked about this a
[48:13] million times. All of us normal people,
[48:16] we have the Bitcoin supply. Satoshi
[48:18] found a way through proof of work mining
[48:20] to distribute the supply of Bitcoins to
[48:23] the people. It's not like a few
[48:25] institutions own 60%, 70, 80% of the
[48:28] supply and they're the ones that decide
[48:30] whether they're selling or whether
[48:32] they're holding. It's collective
[48:34] consensus with a growing group of
[48:36] individuals, small businesses, people
[48:39] all over the world that are like, you
[48:40] know what? I go out and I'm net
[48:42] productive. Meaning I work hard and I
[48:45] spend less than I earn and I take the
[48:48] excess and when I decide, I have to
[48:50] monetize something because I have to as
[48:52] a human being use money to optimize for
[48:55] my future. And at the margins, every
[48:58] single time I have to make that choice,
[48:59] I choose Bitcoin. We are the ones that
[49:01] hold the line. We are the ones that
[49:04] reduce the momentum of selling because
[49:07] we own the majority of the supply. The
[49:09] people. Who owns 80, 90% of the Bitcoin
[49:12] supply? Not the government and treasury
[49:14] companies, we do. And so we hold the
[49:18] [ __ ] line. Get that disrespect out of
[49:21] here, okay?
[49:22] Towards the end of bottoms,
[49:25] when the market is truly forming a
[49:26] bottom, you see this cross here if you
[49:29] look at the bottom, the the green and
[49:31] the red. This is the amount of supply in
[49:34] profit versus the amount of supply in
[49:35] loss and it's not perfect. It's looking
[49:37] at on-chain metrics. But when you see
[49:40] these touch and cross, that means the
[49:42] amount of supply in profit has gotten
[49:45] decreased so much that it's lower than
[49:47] the amount of supply in loss. And again,
[49:49] this is traditional capitulation [ __ ]
[49:52] This is where the majority of Bitcoin
[49:54] are close to that has been that has been
[49:56] purchased on chain is at a loss.
[49:59] Everyone's underwater, but still nobody
[50:01] is selling. That means we are staying
[50:04] humble. We're stacking sats. These are
[50:06] not people with too much like let me let
[50:08] me say it another way. Everyone with
[50:11] excess leverage that has borrowed too
[50:12] much and has not been humble and has not
[50:15] been patient, they're getting washed out
[50:17] right now. They're puking their guts
[50:18] out. And it's how many of those people
[50:20] do you need to wash out? How many coins
[50:23] need to go into the hands of people that
[50:25] deserve it where they will be treated
[50:27] best?
[50:28] Right? And eventually you get to a point
[50:31] where every one of the the highly
[50:34] levered high time preference get washed
[50:37] out. And where all of that supply and
[50:39] profit turns into much less less less
[50:42] less less where these are really the
[50:44] only coins that are in profit are really
[50:46] old coins, coins that people bought
[50:48] five, six, seven years ago, right? That
[50:50] you know, people say, "Oh, Bitcoin's
[50:52] about the same price it was four years
[50:53] ago." So, in order to have an on-chain
[50:55] UTXO in profit, you'd have to have
[50:57] bought a long time ago. And so, the
[51:00] people that are holding still at a loss,
[51:03] these are people that aren't levered.
[51:04] These are people low time preference.
[51:06] These are people that have high
[51:07] conviction in Bitcoin that have jobs,
[51:09] that have income, that have profits.
[51:11] These aren't companies wholly reliant on
[51:12] VC for payroll. These are good
[51:14] businesses, convicted businesses,
[51:16] Bitcoin businesses. And so, when you see
[51:19] this metric, you know we're close to a
[51:21] bottom. Now,
[51:24] I want to go back to the idea that
[51:26] without treasury companies in the ETFs,
[51:28] Bitcoin would be at $5,000 and a
[51:30] complete failure. Such offensive
[51:32] [ __ ] Um
[51:34] one metric to look at is the Coinbase
[51:36] premium. So, Coinbase is the major US
[51:39] exchange for spot Bitcoin, real Bitcoin,
[51:42] okay?
[51:43] When there's a premium to that price,
[51:45] there's obviously people are really
[51:48] eager to get their hands on Bitcoin.
[51:50] When this metric is negative out of 10,
[51:52] so it goes from 10 to -10, a -7.29,
[51:56] that's yikes territory, okay? Combine
[51:59] that with the Bitcoin held by US spot
[52:02] ETFs went from 1.347 million to 1.225
[52:07] million. That means that there's been
[52:10] 120,000
[52:12] net Bitcoin flowing out of the ETFs.
[52:15] That's the amount of sell pressure that
[52:17] we faced over the last 2 months.
[52:21] 2 months.
[52:24] Mind you,
[52:25] treasury companies have stopped buying
[52:27] and are now selling. So, who's holding
[52:30] the line? Who's absorbing all of that?
[52:34] Who's buying dips and who
[52:37] are the coins that aren't
[52:38] over-leveraged, that aren't puking their
[52:40] guts out, that don't have liabilities
[52:43] they can't meet, that are just staying
[52:45] humble and stacking sats? We, the
[52:47] [ __ ] people, the plebs.
[52:50] So, puts it it puts an end to this
[52:52] notion that we need ETFs and we need
[52:55] treasury company Now, they're not bad. I
[52:57] love the ETFs. It treasury companies
[53:00] could could be great. Who cares?
[53:03] Ev- Anyone can use Bitcoin for whatever
[53:05] they want. I have I'm in no position nor
[53:07] am I interested in saying who should or
[53:10] should not be using Bitcoin. Everyone
[53:12] use Bitcoin for whatever you want.
[53:13] That's literally it's an open utility
[53:16] for the world. It's like a public park.
[53:18] It's no one's place to say you can't
[53:20] barbecue at the park. No, you can't play
[53:22] catch with your son at the park. No, you
[53:24] can't take your baby to the park. No,
[53:25] you can't walk your dog at the park.
[53:27] What the [ __ ] do you mean? It's a public
[53:28] utility. Everyone's going to use the
[53:29] park how they want to use the park.
[53:31] But, the idea
[53:34] that the people
[53:36] don't hold the line on this asset
[53:38] and that without a couple people on Wall
[53:41] Street, this thing would be worthless?
[53:43] Get the [ __ ] out of here. I'm sorry.
[53:46] So offensive.
[53:48] So offensive. And mind you, this is an
[53:51] open-source project. So, before we all
[53:55] march around and take credit for a
[53:57] multi-trillion-dollar open-source
[53:58] project, how about we pay our dues to
[54:02] the early Bitcoin heroes and the
[54:04] open-source developers? I mean, being
[54:06] around 10, 11, 12, 13 years ago is the
[54:09] Greg Maxwells of the world, the Peter
[54:11] Woollers of the world. There's so much
[54:13] heroic behavior before anyone marches
[54:16] around with their chest out and takes
[54:17] credit for Bitcoin. I mean, get the [ __ ]
[54:20] out of here, please.
[54:24] Respectfully,
[54:26] no.
[54:27] No No one entity, no one Wall Street
[54:31] vehicle
[54:32] makes Bitcoin what it is.
[54:35] It is a collective movement. Period.
[54:38] Enough of that [ __ ] And now we have the
[54:39] data to prove it.
[54:41] ETFs have dumped 120,000 Bitcoins on our
[54:45] head in the last 2 months, and Treasury
[54:48] companies are not eating all of that
[54:50] supply. In fact, recently they've become
[54:52] sellers. And guess what? Bitcoin [ __ ]
[54:55] bounced off 58K.
[54:58] So, who the [ __ ] bought that? Come on.
[55:00] Come on, man. Enough of the hat. Enough
[55:03] of that. Let's keep the vibes high. What
[55:05] are we doing? That's not Bitcoin. What
[55:07] are we doing? Um
[55:10] And uh just a little snippet I wanted to
[55:12] add in here. M2 money supply saw the
[55:14] largest monthly increase in the last 5
[55:16] years. So, again, I'm not one of those
[55:19] Bitcoin and M2 are paired hand-in-hand.
[55:21] When M2 goes up, Bitcoin has to go up.
[55:23] We all know that that's been invalidated
[55:24] and not true. But, keep in mind,
[55:27] Bitcoin's going to smell out liquidity
[55:29] to the downside and the upside. It's
[55:30] going to tell you the truth first.
[55:32] Let's just keep a pulse on this Bitcoin
[55:33] thing. These bottom indicators look
[55:35] good. It doesn't mean we can't draw out
[55:37] for the next two to four months. It
[55:38] doesn't mean it's not going to be a
[55:39] grueling brutal summer that requires
[55:42] patience, that requires humility, that
[55:44] requires humble, that requires stacking.
[55:47] That's not what I'm saying.
[55:48] But guys, appreciate the moment. Know
[55:50] where you stand. Know how valuable you
[55:52] are to the network. Don't let anybody
[55:54] else tell you that you don't matter. I
[55:57] just showed you the data. We're the only
[55:59] thing that matters. Us the people are
[56:01] the only thing that matters in this
[56:03] asset class. Satoshi found a way to
[56:05] distribute all the Bitcoins, all the
[56:07] sats to all of us before the rest of the
[56:10] world figured it out.
[56:12] The supply's gone.
[56:14] There's only a million Bitcoin left to
[56:16] be mined. I'd say it's gone.
[56:18] It's already in the hands of the people.
[56:21] So sellers get exhausted when all the
[56:23] Bitcoins are concentrated in the hands
[56:25] of people like you and I that have jobs
[56:28] that produce cash flow, that earn more
[56:30] than they spend, don't take on too much
[56:32] leverage, and hold the [ __ ] line. I'm
[56:34] not selling anything right now. I'm a
[56:37] buyer. I'm a stay humble and sats
[56:39] stacker. Let's go, guys. We got this.
[56:43] Um on top of that, the fact that the
[56:45] sitting president of the United States
[56:48] uh reported owning over $50 million of
[56:50] Bitcoin held in cold storage.
[56:53] I mean, listen. I was arguing ar-
[56:56] arguing with myself whether I should
[56:58] make my grind my gears rant the amount
[57:00] of profit that Trump extracted from this
[57:02] industry. I mean, he made over a billion
[57:05] dollars, I think, last year. He was the
[57:07] top earner. He made more money than
[57:09] Coinbase, made more money than
[57:10] everybody.
[57:11] Um just extracting wealth from
[57:15] the people that he governs as the
[57:17] president is crazy. Um but love him or
[57:20] hate him, agree with his practices or
[57:23] not,
[57:24] the guy is not shy on making money and
[57:28] investing in what is in his best
[57:31] interest. And the fact that you have the
[57:32] sitting president of the United States
[57:34] that not only has over $50 million
[57:36] Bitcoin, but it's in cold storage?
[57:40] Now, this was
[57:41] This was December 2025. So, we'll have
[57:44] to wait a full another year to see if he
[57:47] had diamond hands, if he hodled, right?
[57:50] Who knows? Maybe he could have sold.
[57:51] Maybe I have no idea, right? This This
[57:54] filing is only We're only seeing it now,
[57:56] right? Right? 6 7 months later.
[57:58] But, guys, I mean, if that's not a
[58:00] bullish To me, Trump Trump reads like
[58:03] the guy that's I know where this
[58:05] industry is going. I know where the
[58:06] world is going.
[58:08] I make money off of these things. I
[58:10] don't just sit patiently and watch. This
[58:12] is not a charitable effort. I make sure
[58:15] that me and my family get paid for the
[58:18] access that we have. I mean, love him or
[58:20] hate him, that's that's what he does,
[58:22] seemingly. And this position is crazy. I
[58:25] mean, the fact that a sitting president
[58:27] is has cold storage Bitcoin of this size
[58:31] is crazy to me. And the fact
[58:33] specifically that it's Trump and this
[58:34] administration, I mean,
[58:37] I saw some movement on the strategic
[58:38] Bitcoin reserve. Didn't put it in here.
[58:41] Didn't feel like it was quite ready to
[58:43] talk about with you guys, but I'm
[58:44] keeping a close eye here. I'm keeping a
[58:46] close eye. All right, let me get drink
[58:48] some water real quick.
[58:50] And uh we'll do Grind My Gears.
[59:00] Um all right.
[59:02] Uh this week Grind My Gears is actually
[59:05] uh not Grind My Gears at all. Um I think
[59:08] the bear market is hard enough, if I'm
[59:11] being honest. It's hard enough. I think
[59:13] the vibes on my social medias from where
[59:16] I can see have been low, and they've
[59:18] been bleak. People are pissed. People
[59:19] are upset. And so, I didn't feel like
[59:23] complaining this week. Um
[59:26] I I told you guys last week I spent uh
[59:30] touring and looking at uh wedding venues
[59:32] with my fiance, which was which was
[59:34] awesome experience, very exciting. I got
[59:36] to see my parents, so I got to see
[59:38] Brooke and my dad
[59:40] and spend some time with them. And it's
[59:42] just so good to be with family, to be
[59:44] outside, summertime, touch grass, and
[59:47] I'm stacking sats, right? I'm I'm
[59:49] enjoying my time, living my life, um
[59:52] staying in shape, getting really cool
[59:54] experience. I'm very excited to start my
[59:56] family. So, it just felt like maybe
[59:58] instead of grinding my gears and
[60:00] complaining this week, uh we spent some
[60:02] time just being positive. Um and for me,
[60:07] that's the World Cup.
[60:09] I think I think the World Cup
[60:11] the timing of it and what it has meant
[60:14] to the world right now at such an
[60:16] interesting kind of inflection point
[60:19] that we're living through has been
[60:21] fascinating to me. Um
[60:23] I wrote here
[60:24] the World Cup reminds us that underneath
[60:26] all the algorithmic fragmentation,
[60:29] political tribalism, and online
[60:31] subcultures, people still desperately
[60:33] want to belong to something real.
[60:36] I think that's true. People want to
[60:38] rally together in a bar. People want to
[60:42] you know, in Chicago here, as soon as
[60:44] this episode's over probably going to
[60:46] run outside and find a crowd and watch
[60:48] the game. And people want that, that
[60:50] connection. I I've talked before
[60:53] I think innately as a person you
[60:56] naturally want two things as a human.
[60:59] You want to be part of something bigger
[61:00] than yourself, and you want to be part
[61:02] of something that will last longer than
[61:03] you will, right? And
[61:05] I think family is the most natural
[61:08] expression of something like that for
[61:10] us. You know, you're part of something
[61:12] bigger than you, and that family
[61:13] literally mathematically can't be one
[61:15] person. You know, you find a partner you
[61:19] reproduce, you have kids, and then it
[61:20] also lasts longer than you, and that's
[61:22] the idea of extending your bloodline,
[61:24] you know? The family lasts longer than
[61:26] when you're gone. Hopefully, your kids
[61:28] have kids, and their kids have kids, and
[61:30] so on and so forth. You know, things
[61:31] like Bitcoin, I think, are an expression
[61:33] of that. Being part of something that is
[61:35] definitively bigger than anybody, any
[61:38] company, any government, any person.
[61:40] Bitcoin is bigger. It is the ultimate
[61:43] humbler. It is humility personified,
[61:46] right? Um and last longer than you than
[61:48] we will. Like, Bitcoin will out live all
[61:50] of us listening to this.
[61:53] All of us. And there's something too
[61:55] about the World Cup being this like
[61:57] larger-than-life event that unites
[61:59] different cultures, different countries,
[62:01] right? I think
[62:03] for me, the World Cup, I mean, watching
[62:06] Iran play on my TV screen while I host a
[62:10] show that talks about us at war with
[62:12] them, that's impacting energy markets
[62:14] and oil crisis and all this stuff, it
[62:16] was crazy to me. Cuz I don't know. I
[62:19] think the World Cup has reminded us that
[62:21] we're not nearly as divided as the
[62:25] internet and bear markets maybe make us
[62:27] feel.
[62:29] We're not as soulless um as markets make
[62:33] us feel, in my opinion. Um and I think
[62:38] it goes to show just how impactful large
[62:41] government and politicians are in our
[62:42] lives.
[62:43] I mean, we're at conflict with guys I
[62:46] was hoping scored a goal in a soccer
[62:49] game or a football match. We're not as
[62:51] hopeless as politicians sometimes want
[62:54] us to feel.
[62:55] Um so,
[62:57] I don't know. The World Cup to me was
[62:58] super cool. It's just we still know how
[63:01] to gather, we still know how to sing, we
[63:03] still know how to care. Um
[63:06] I I think is a very unique shining
[63:09] beacon in what is just a grueling
[63:12] grueling bear market in a slight but
[63:15] meaningful pop in the AI bubble, in
[63:17] conflict in the Middle East and an oil
[63:19] energy crisis, inflation is back. I
[63:22] think this has just been a joy and
[63:25] touring wedding venues with my fiance
[63:27] and being with my family and watching
[63:29] the World Cup and getting to know other
[63:31] cultures and other superstars, I've
[63:33] really enjoyed It's been the highlight
[63:35] of my summer so far. I've really, really
[63:37] enjoyed it. And I can't pretend like I
[63:39] was a soccer fan before this World Cup,
[63:42] but I can't wait to watch tonight's
[63:44] match. Yesterday, I was going nuts when
[63:48] Norway scored those goals. I was in my
[63:50] house jumping. My fiance had to wash our
[63:53] couch. Like, you know, you take apart
[63:54] the couch and put the
[63:56] uh whatever, the things in the wash.
[63:59] I was jumping and stomping all over our
[64:01] white couch. Um this guy is my favorite
[64:06] [ __ ] guy.
[64:07] And I like this Holland guy, Erling
[64:10] Haaland guy, for those that don't know,
[64:12] he's the superstar on Norway, superstar
[64:14] of the tournament so far. I mean, he's
[64:16] got as many goals as Ronaldo has had in
[64:19] his career in the World Cup. He's tied
[64:21] for the Golden Boot with Mbappé and
[64:24] Messi. He's 25.
[64:26] But this guy is so [ __ ] awesome
[64:29] because I was a fan of him before the
[64:32] World Cup, not cuz I'm a soccer fan, but
[64:34] guess what? He drinks raw milk, he eats
[64:37] raw dairy, he focuses on single
[64:38] ingredient foods, he eats meat, eggs,
[64:41] raw dairy, keeps it simple. And he has
[64:44] this uh life
[64:46] he approaches life in a very unique way
[64:48] for a superstar that I just find
[64:50] endearing. It's very aligned with myself
[64:53] and Bitcoiners where he Yes, his
[64:54] approach is, you know, life is meant to
[64:56] be lived fully, meant to experience,
[64:58] meant to take risk, meant to work hard,
[65:01] I'm going to take care of my body. Um
[65:02] but I'm going to enjoy it cuz why not?
[65:04] I'm going to be ambitious. I'm surely
[65:06] going to fail, it's the only way to
[65:07] learn. But that's what it's all about.
[65:10] He's been dating the same girl since he
[65:12] was a teenager. So, he's family, love,
[65:15] wants to have kids, healthy, um kind of
[65:19] takes a different approach to diet,
[65:20] different approach. He But, he's not all
[65:22] caught up in the bureaucracy and the
[65:24] political infighting and all the
[65:26] [ __ ] He's just a breath of fresh
[65:28] air. And he kind of comes across on the
[65:30] soccer field
[65:32] like this Viking monster, like this big
[65:35] like it reminds me of Bitcoin. He just
[65:37] can't be stopped. Um but, he scores a
[65:41] goal and he's humble and shows humility.
[65:44] He doesn't take life or himself too
[65:46] seriously. I just [ __ ] love this guy.
[65:49] And to me, this is like a shining beacon
[65:52] of culture. And it's a it's such a
[65:56] stark reminder of
[65:59] the the parts of being human that we all
[66:02] adore.
[66:03] It's like, wait. This guy eats good
[66:05] foods, lives good life, works hard, and
[66:09] this whole world cup thing. And like,
[66:11] this is what it's about. Like, now this
[66:12] is a superstar. This is inspiring to me.
[66:15] And I it don't I don't know. Today, I
[66:17] didn't feel like complaining about
[66:19] government. And I didn't want to
[66:20] complain about Trump extracting a
[66:22] billion dollars today. Although, that's
[66:23] such a preposterous thing to do.
[66:26] I kind of felt like, you know, today,
[66:28] guess what? Uh my fiance and I, this
[66:30] guy's a big cold plunge guy. And my
[66:32] fiance today woke up this morning, and
[66:34] we biked over to the lake here in
[66:36] Chicago, and we dove in and did a little
[66:38] cold plunge. And it's just cool. And
[66:41] that's just like it's fun. It's summer,
[66:43] World Cup, go team USA. And this like
[66:46] what what a fun reminder of like, hey,
[66:50] get outside, touch grass, work hard,
[66:52] earn more than you consume, stay humble,
[66:54] stack sats, eat well, take care of
[66:56] yourself. Go tour wedding venues. Go
[66:59] fall in love. Go plan how you're going
[67:00] to have kids. Go spend time with your
[67:02] parents.
[67:04] Just a great I I know the bear markets
[67:06] are tough. I'm not taking that away from
[67:09] anyone. I mean, hard on all of us. Hell,
[67:11] I mean, if I want to feel bad about
[67:12] myself, I'll open my phone, open my
[67:14] social media. You guys give me no
[67:18] You guys don't spare an inch.
[67:21] But, I don't know. Just World Cup, such
[67:23] good vibes, such good energy. I really
[67:25] have been enjoying the summer and I'm
[67:26] grateful for the World Cup, and I love
[67:28] this guy. I love I mean, if if we have
[67:31] to play Norway, my heart will be torn.
[67:34] This guy is a superstar in every sense,
[67:38] exemplifying diet, optimism, life. Um
[67:42] there's a Norwegian uh kind of folk tale
[67:45] saying of don't take yourself too
[67:47] seriously. Don't value yourself above
[67:50] your peers. It is kind of their version
[67:53] of stay humble, work hard. You're not
[67:56] too cool for school. You're not the You
[67:59] don't need to be the boss, the
[68:00] president, the main character. It's this
[68:02] egoless energy. Um this guy cracks me
[68:05] up. He's the [ __ ] man. So, shout out
[68:07] to Holland, shout out to the World Cup.
[68:09] Go USA. Uh and with that, let me play
[68:12] this video from him, which I think kind
[68:14] of exemplifies this type of Bitcoiner
[68:16] energy that I when I was watching and
[68:18] getting to know this guy, um I was
[68:20] binging all of his stuff after uh
[68:22] catching up on the World Cup. Uh I think
[68:25] he's just a superstar in every sense. Uh
[68:28] and uh just reminded me of some of the
[68:30] things I talk about on the show. So, let
[68:31] me play this clip.
[68:34] >> Do I want to do this? No.
[68:37] I don't.
[68:39] Will I do it? Yeah.
[68:41] Am I doing it? Yeah.
[68:44] Because
[68:46] >> [music]
[68:46] >> why not?
[68:48] It's good for my body.
[68:50] It's good for my mind.
[68:52] I feel I'm tired, but then I tell my
[68:53] body I'm not tired. Then, I think it's
[68:55] [music] a psychological thing that's
[68:57] telling yourself, "Okay, I'm not so
[68:59] tired. It's It's
[69:00] We keep going."
[69:02] If you tell yourself you're tired,
[69:03] you're going to be tired.
[69:05] If you tell yourself, "I'm not that
[69:06] tired. It's okay."
[69:08] >> [music]
[69:08] >> You're not that tired.
[69:09] Simple as that. So, it's also a really
[69:11] psychological thing because our bodies
[69:13] can handle so much more than we think.
[69:17] >> I just think that I couldn't agree more
[69:19] with that. You know,
[69:20] uh do I want to He said in the video,
[69:23] "Do I want to be doing this? No.
[69:25] Will I do this? Yes. Am I doing it?
[69:27] Yes."
[69:29] When I feel tired, I tell myself I'm
[69:31] just not tired.
[69:33] Cuz why not?
[69:35] I don't know. It reminds me I mean, I'm
[69:37] much more vulgar in my expression of
[69:38] this. I call it don't be a [ __ ]
[69:41] But it reminds me of what I tell Dylan,
[69:43] you know, sometimes I I I'll say to
[69:45] Dylan, you know, success
[69:47] is a choice. It's a decision. I think
[69:49] our bodies and and us as humans are so
[69:52] capable.
[69:53] Um really, it's up to you.
[69:57] You know, I
[69:58] I don't like excuses in life because
[70:01] excuses
[70:04] whoever's fault it is gives them the
[70:07] power over outcomes in your life. That's
[70:11] why it's never In my life, it's never
[70:12] anyone else's fault but mine.
[70:14] And I tell this to my employees, I hate
[70:16] Don't tell me
[70:18] don't point a finger at somebody else
[70:20] because then you're worthless to me. And
[70:23] you don't want to be worthless at one of
[70:24] my companies.
[70:26] Cuz then why are you on my payroll?
[70:31] Don't say it was Well, it was really
[70:32] that guy's fault. Okay, cool. All you're
[70:34] telling me is that that guy defines
[70:36] outcomes. And sure, this one might have
[70:38] not gone his way, but then I got to work
[70:40] with him to make sure that we get the
[70:42] outcomes we want. But why the [ __ ] am I
[70:44] talking to you?
[70:47] So, I don't do excuses. I don't give
[70:49] anybody else the that level of power
[70:52] over my life.
[70:54] It's a decision. I'll decide if I'm
[70:56] tired. I'll decide if I can do it, but
[70:59] we are far more capable than we think.
[71:02] And so, sometimes I don't want to do
[71:03] things. Do I want to go through this
[71:05] bear market? No, of course not. I want
[71:08] Bitcoin to be 500k. I want Strike to
[71:10] have every license and have launched all
[71:12] of our features. I want to I want all
[71:14] sorts of things. But, am I going to go
[71:16] through this bear market? Am I going to
[71:17] stack the sats? Yeah. Yeah, I am.
[71:21] I've made a decision for myself and my
[71:23] family that we're going to win. That's
[71:26] just what it is. I made that choice.
[71:30] So, hopefully serves as some
[71:31] inspiration, um positivity. Go team USA.
[71:35] Okay, Strike.
[71:36] Um what we launched last week, uh
[71:39] reminder, we got our MiCA license. So,
[71:41] now Europe, I can market to you guys. I
[71:43] can talk to you guys more directly. We
[71:45] can launch certain features. So, we are
[71:47] now everywhere that MiCA allows us to
[71:49] be, which includes Italy and Spain.
[71:51] Check your app stores, really exciting.
[71:54] And then a sneaky one that obviously
[71:56] didn't get all the love and the
[71:57] attention that MiCA and This is like
[72:00] Strike Europe 2.0. We're here and we're
[72:02] here in a big way. We're going to invest
[72:05] a lot more into the region, a lot more
[72:07] into the features, into the app. So, if
[72:09] you're European and you're listening to
[72:11] this, let me know. Um one, let me know
[72:14] how embarrassing I was talking about
[72:16] football. And then two, what you guys
[72:18] want to see in the app, what features
[72:20] we're missing, what features Americans
[72:21] have that you don't have that you really
[72:23] really want, cuz we're hungry, we're
[72:24] already building, we're going to
[72:26] continue to build for you guys now in a
[72:27] big way. We previously weren't allowed
[72:29] to, and now we're here to stay and we're
[72:31] here to stay in a big way. Uh Italy and
[72:33] Spain, we weren't there before, we're
[72:35] there now. Download it, let us know what
[72:37] you think.
[72:38] Um but what flew under the radar is
[72:41] account switcher. So, a lot of you guys
[72:43] have multiple accounts, multiple Strike
[72:45] accounts, or you maybe have a business
[72:46] account and a personal account, and you
[72:48] can now easily toggle between all of
[72:50] your accounts inside of the app, which
[72:53] is really exciting. I mean, it's a tiny
[72:54] feature. It's not like going to change
[72:57] your life, but these are the little
[72:58] things. This was one of the top requests
[73:00] was I have multiple Strike accounts. I
[73:02] want to be able to swip switch between
[73:04] my LLC and my uh my account or maybe my
[73:07] wife's account and and flip-flop between
[73:10] uh and it's one click away now. And so,
[73:11] we continue every single week. I don't
[73:13] know a company that ships as much as we
[73:16] do, listens to customers as much as we
[73:18] do.
[73:19] It's It's one of my biggest prides is
[73:20] just
[73:22] the
[73:23] level of execution and how and uh
[73:26] Bitcoin culture that we've brought to a
[73:28] business. I mean, Strike is just we live
[73:31] and breathe the stay humble, stay
[73:33] focused, keep shipping, the humility it
[73:36] takes to sacrifice your own opinions and
[73:38] ideas for that of the customer. Um it's
[73:41] just an incredible group to work with.
[73:43] It's so much fun to to work at Strike
[73:46] and work on this product and now all the
[73:49] products we have coming. So, very
[73:51] exciting. Tomorrow,
[73:54] uh we completed testing today. I gave
[73:56] the official thumbs up product Shout out
[73:58] to Gina. Shout out Sam. Shout out
[74:00] Caitlin. We did our full end-to-end
[74:03] testing for production for
[74:05] volatility-proof loan. So, tomorrow we
[74:07] will be turning on and enabling the
[74:09] ability to open a Bitcoin-backed loan
[74:12] without the ability of getting
[74:13] liquidated. Okay?
[74:16] Crazy, I know. It costs a little bit
[74:18] more than a normal loan, but the money
[74:20] that we charge, the difference between
[74:22] the two loans is we're taking that money
[74:24] and we're putting on hedges in the
[74:26] market so that we are protected if the
[74:29] market goes down and we do not have to
[74:31] liquidate any of your collateral. So, no
[74:33] longer can anyone say Jack launches
[74:35] these products only to liquidate
[74:37] people's Bitcoin. That's [ __ ] It
[74:39] was always a lie, and now we've launched
[74:41] a product to solve for that problem. So,
[74:43] if you want to open a Bitcoin-backed
[74:44] loan, you think Bitcoin's going to go up
[74:46] 15, 20% a year and you're not worried
[74:49] about, you know, 10, 11, 12% interest on
[74:52] your loan, and you don't want to face
[74:55] any world in where in which your
[74:57] collateral can get liquidated, we
[74:59] uniquely will offer that in-app
[75:02] beautiful experience. Could not be more
[75:04] excited. So, you guys get the early
[75:06] scoop listening to the show here. Rider
[75:08] dies, it'll come out tomorrow. I'll I'll
[75:11] obviously have a video presentation.
[75:12] I'll walk everybody through it. And then
[75:15] this month, July, we should be enabling
[75:18] I don't know if we're going to do some
[75:19] beta testing first, but interest on
[75:21] cash. So, we think we'll have some of
[75:23] the best rates in the market, and then
[75:26] I've talked about my vision where I
[75:27] think we can end up offering 4, 5, 6%
[75:31] interest on cash.
[75:33] I'll I'll I'll talk about that vision
[75:34] later. I'll spare you guys right now.
[75:36] But, our first version of that, which I
[75:38] would expect somewhere, you know, 3 and
[75:39] 1/2, 4% somewhere in that range. We
[75:43] should have that turned on. Maybe for
[75:45] some beta customers first. Obviously, we
[75:47] don't like shipping things without some
[75:49] thorough testing, but that's a this
[75:50] month thing. So, our foot remains on the
[75:53] absolute gas. Bear markets are for
[75:55] building. This company is unbelievable.
[75:58] I'm just so proud to work here, and I
[76:03] don't know. It's just such a fulfilling
[76:05] thing to build things for Bitcoiners and
[76:08] for you guys to be receptive towards it,
[76:09] or you guys say, "No. I don't use Strike
[76:12] yet cuz of this." And then we don't take
[76:14] it personally. We say, "Got it. Give us
[76:16] a month. We're going to go build that
[76:17] shit." I mean, we're turning into an AI
[76:19] company. The amount of
[76:21] products we're able to get to market
[76:23] securely with beautiful experiences as
[76:25] fast as we do is just a joy. It's just a
[76:28] joy. So, shout out to the team. Thank
[76:30] you guys. All the customers that support
[76:32] us, I really, really appreciate it.
[76:33] Obviously, we wouldn't be in business
[76:35] without you.
[76:36] Uh and yeah, let us know what you want
[76:38] us to build.
[76:40] Liquidating proof loan, so no
[76:42] liquidations will launch tomorrow. And
[76:46] interest on cash after that. With that,
[76:48] maybe we got 15 minutes or so for some
[76:51] Q&A before it's World Cup time. So, let
[76:54] me blow up my screen
[76:56] and pull up what Dylan's got for me.
[76:59] And uh,
[77:01] we'll rock and roll.
[77:03] There we go.
[77:06] Okay.
[77:08] Where's Dylan at?
[77:10] There he is.
[77:13] All right.
[77:21] Um,
[77:23] okay, Bitcoin
[77:27] uh,
[77:29] /markets question. Does MicroStrategy
[77:31] really need to satisfy the four capital
[77:33] stacks? Do Bitcoin holders count? I'm
[77:36] thinking they are not technically tied
[77:38] to MSTR and so MSTR has no obligation to
[77:40] them.
[77:41] So, this person is referencing
[77:44] um, my
[77:46] understanding of Let me just give a
[77:48] quick summary.
[77:50] So, there's you know, four
[77:53] capital categories in the MS in the
[77:56] strategy capital stack. You've got
[77:58] Bitcoin,
[78:00] right?
[78:01] Then you've got common equity, which is
[78:04] MSTR.
[78:05] You've got preferred equity, you've got
[78:07] STRC, and then I think there's what,
[78:10] four or five of them? But, you've got
[78:11] these preferred equity instruments.
[78:13] Saylor calls them credit. They're not
[78:15] quite credit, but I get what he's trying
[78:17] to do.
[78:18] And then you've got debt.
[78:20] You know, convertible debt, right? And
[78:22] you've got these four. And the question
[78:24] is, how do you make everybody happy?
[78:27] Because right now strategy is sitting at
[78:30] a significant loss on the Bitcoin. So,
[78:32] their Bitcoin investment is underwater.
[78:34] And their uh MNAV, so the equity is not
[78:39] trading
[78:40] above net asset value.
[78:42] Um
[78:43] So, the question is you now have
[78:46] permanent obligations with these
[78:48] perpetual uh preferred equities, where
[78:52] you owe hundreds of millions of dollars
[78:53] a month.
[78:54] And you're a company that doesn't
[78:56] generate any net income.
[78:58] So, how do you come up with the money to
[79:00] pay these obligations?
[79:04] And well, let's walk through the
[79:06] options. One, you can sell Bitcoin.
[79:09] And selling Bitcoin is theoretically not
[79:12] harmful to MSTR investors, although
[79:15] we'll get to that in a second. So,
[79:16] you're kind of sparing the MSTR
[79:18] investors by not diluting common stock.
[79:21] And you're sparing the preferred equity
[79:23] holders by not pausing dividends.
[79:27] Okay? The other option is you can sell
[79:29] MSTR, so you're sparing Bitcoin and the
[79:32] price of Bitcoin.
[79:34] And
[79:36] and you're sparing the preferred equity
[79:37] holders, but the people burdened are
[79:40] MSTR common as they're getting diluted.
[79:42] Um so, they're carrying the cost.
[79:45] And the other option is you can just
[79:46] pause
[79:48] dividends on these preferreds. You could
[79:49] say, "Bear market, we don't have the
[79:51] money right now."
[79:52] Um so, there's just not much we can do.
[79:55] Um and
[79:59] every single option though, someone is a
[80:01] loser. And so, the question that the
[80:03] listener writes in is, "Well, do they
[80:05] have to appease Bitcoin? Could they just
[80:08] sell Bitcoin?" Yes, of course. In fact,
[80:11] that's what they did today. Now, the
[80:14] question is
[80:16] >> [laughter]
[80:18] >> I I already know I'm going to get myself
[80:19] in dangerous territory here, but I I
[80:22] swear I mean it with no harm. I didn't
[80:23] even make it a like a topic in the show
[80:26] today.
[80:29] The question is why would you why would
[80:31] you own MSTR? So,
[80:33] the the From my understanding, I've
[80:35] never owned MSTR
[80:37] um or STR or any of these things. So,
[80:39] I've never never shorted it, never
[80:41] never owned it. So, just my opinion,
[80:45] which could carry no weight or merit cuz
[80:47] I
[80:49] like I said, I don't focus too much on
[80:51] this stuff. It doesn't really interest
[80:53] me.
[80:54] Um I'm more focused on like, you know,
[80:56] Bitcoin itself. But,
[81:00] the thesis, as I understand it, is that
[81:01] MSTR
[81:03] is engineered, {quote} {unquote}, to
[81:05] outperform Bitcoin.
[81:07] Right? Um
[81:10] but it it's uh if they're ha if they're
[81:15] constantly selling Bitcoin,
[81:17] um the equity will not outperform
[81:21] Bitcoin.
[81:22] So, you have to then ask yourself, why
[81:25] am I owning it instead of Bitcoin?
[81:27] Now, could it outperform Bitcoin? Yes.
[81:29] Could the MNAV's expand? But, then
[81:31] you're making an investment thesis that
[81:34] a company is going to trade at multiples
[81:37] of its net asset value, which
[81:41] I don't know
[81:42] why it would. Um and I kind of This is a
[81:45] point I'd made a long time ago, which is
[81:48] when you introduce the preferred
[81:50] equities, you've added leverage to your
[81:52] MNAV. Where if the MNAV is not rich, and
[81:55] you're not in an inability to sell MSTR
[81:58] accretively, where you can do so without
[82:02] crashing the price of the stock. You
[82:04] notice MSTR last week went up a lot,
[82:07] probably had something to do with the
[82:08] fact that the company itself wasn't
[82:10] selling a [ __ ] ton of the equity.
[82:14] So, it's great. I mean, they they let
[82:16] they they let the equity recover without
[82:18] selling it. But, anyways, when you have
[82:20] a preferred equity that has hundreds of
[82:23] millions of dollars of monthly
[82:24] obligations,
[82:25] you've added a lot of I call it
[82:27] leverage, but you you give a lot um
[82:31] you're burdening the common equity a lot
[82:33] because the common equity
[82:35] now has to trade at a rich premium or
[82:39] else you become what we just described,
[82:41] just a seller of Bitcoin. And you can
[82:43] see here, hold on.
[82:46] The CEO, Phong Le, tweeted today
[82:52] um
[82:54] Let me How can I share this on my
[82:55] screen?
[82:57] The CEO of Strategy
[83:00] tweeted today, oh [ __ ]
[83:03] Sorry, not a professional podcaster.
[83:06] He tweeted today, Strategy is evolving
[83:09] from one-way capital issuance to active
[83:11] capital management.
[83:13] Um that is I don't totally understand
[83:18] what that means. It's kind of the
[83:20] it's kind of the funny thing about um
[83:22] Strategy and some of the treasury
[83:23] company stuff is I never seem to fully
[83:25] understand. They talk in like riddles.
[83:27] Like so I I don't totally understand
[83:30] what that means. I could take a guess.
[83:32] That means we've gone from buy Bitcoin
[83:35] never sell to, you know, active
[83:38] management means we're going to do what
[83:41] we need to do when we feel like doing
[83:43] it, which is we've turned into a seller
[83:45] of Bitcoin if we have to. That's That's
[83:48] how I interpret this. Um is that we went
[83:50] from a buy never sell to a sometimes
[83:53] sell never buy, depends on the context
[83:55] uh and
[83:57] um depends on the price of the credit
[83:59] and the this and the that. Um and so
[84:03] anyways
[84:04] if that's the case
[84:06] then how are you going to
[84:08] I I don't know. I guess my point is
[84:12] there's a lot of risk.
[84:14] And And by the way, that's every
[84:16] company. Like there's a lot of risk in
[84:18] owning Meta stock. I'm not saying it's a
[84:20] bad thing. Like Meta stock
[84:22] you're trusting Zuckerberg's
[84:24] uh uh allocation of all this capital
[84:26] they've raised and all the stuff they're
[84:28] doing.
[84:29] And it looks like there might be some
[84:31] malinvestment and now they're spinning
[84:32] out a cloud business and Meta has
[84:35] performed very poorly recently. And
[84:38] investing in Meta, there's a risk. Risk
[84:40] in the management team, risk in
[84:42] execution, risk in
[84:44] consensus with the investor base. Um but
[84:47] the question I have is
[84:50] why wouldn't you just own Bitcoin? Why
[84:53] would you the thesis is that I guess
[84:57] like the MSTR will outperform it, but
[85:00] like today for example,
[85:02] let's see.
[85:05] Today Bitcoin was up like a couple
[85:08] percent and I think strategy was down a
[85:10] percent. And so it's like
[85:13] well,
[85:14] you know, and if the MNAV stays at this
[85:17] level, it doesn't matter how high
[85:19] Bitcoin gets. Let's say Bitcoin gets to
[85:23] uh
[85:25] to 120k. If the MNAV isn't really rich
[85:29] where they can aggressively sell equity,
[85:32] then they just have to sell Bitcoin all
[85:34] the time.
[85:36] So,
[85:37] I just I don't know. I haven't worked
[85:38] that out. So, anyways,
[85:40] my personal approach which I I guess
[85:42] offends some people is
[85:44] it's just for me
[85:46] the lesson I've learned in my career in
[85:48] Bitcoin is the answer was always right
[85:51] in front of you. It's to own Bitcoin in
[85:53] cold storage.
[85:54] You know, like you know, people were
[85:56] like, "Well, FTX was giving me the all
[85:58] this APR and Sam Bankman-Fried was a
[85:59] whiz kid or Mount Gox was really safe or
[86:03] GBTC and blah blah blah." It's like,
[86:05] "Yeah, but oh, BlockFi to the moon." But
[86:09] in hindsight
[86:11] the answer was just always just just
[86:13] hold the keys. Like because
[86:15] I guess are you compensated
[86:18] for the risk?
[86:20] Uh
[86:21] and yeah, and the other thing is like
[86:24] you know, you can't go wrong with doing
[86:26] what Saylor's doing. What Saylor's doing
[86:27] is selling equity to buy Bitcoin
[86:31] to hold in cold storage.
[86:33] So, I don't know why I wouldn't do the
[86:34] same thing
[86:36] if I owned
[86:38] equity in these companies. I would just
[86:40] swap it for Bitcoin cold storage. So,
[86:42] who knows? I don't know. I think it To
[86:44] me
[86:45] it's gotten complicated as to how this
[86:48] like
[86:50] What's MSTR's all-time high? Like $400?
[86:53] So, Bitcoin right now is a 2x away from
[86:58] uh
[87:00] from an all-time high, right? We're
[87:01] sitting at 64K. If we 2x, 128K, all-time
[87:05] high.
[87:06] But, MicroStrategy's a 4x from all-time
[87:08] high.
[87:09] And so,
[87:11] I don't know. And you know, all these
[87:13] financial engineering wizards out on the
[87:15] internet are surely going to clip this
[87:17] and call me an idiot and an asshat. But,
[87:20] it turns out my questions were pretty
[87:21] good questions, right? Like obviously,
[87:24] you know, STRC
[87:26] fell a bit. The other thing that's
[87:27] interesting is they increased the
[87:29] dividend from 11 and 1/2% to 12%, which
[87:32] adds a ton I mean, when you have
[87:35] you know, so much
[87:37] uh
[87:38] when you have so much
[87:40] issued out like over $10 million of
[87:42] STRC, that's a lot of money that you're
[87:45] burdening with future payments and it's
[87:46] still only at 88 bucks.
[87:49] So, I don't know. It seems like STRC
[87:51] cares more about the sentiment and price
[87:54] of Bitcoin than it does
[87:56] the US dollar reserve or the fact that
[87:58] strategy's selling Bitcoin. I mean, STRC
[88:01] didn't move and strategy and MSTR didn't
[88:03] move even though they sold Bitcoin.
[88:06] I don't know if I answered any of you
[88:08] your questions. Um
[88:10] But, yeah, I mean, if if the
[88:15] if there's no MNAV, then you got to sell
[88:17] Bitcoin. And if you're selling Bitcoin,
[88:20] I don't know how you plan on
[88:21] outperforming Bitcoin with an equity. Um
[88:25] So,
[88:27] we'll see.
[88:28] I've no idea. Who knows?
[88:30] Saylor
[88:32] is is super smart and has proved many
[88:35] people wrong all the time.
[88:38] And uh obviously, we're all cheering for
[88:40] him. Um
[88:41] and I don't By the way, last thing, I
[88:42] don't think like strategy's going to All
[88:45] this like talk that they're going to get
[88:46] liquidated and stuff, there's no nothing
[88:49] like that.
[88:50] Um it might be the case that the equity
[88:53] kind of trades around one MNAV and
[88:57] doesn't
[88:58] outperform Bitcoin in any significant
[89:00] way. So, like there it might be that
[89:03] we're transitioning to an era where the
[89:05] outperformance of Bitcoin was cuz people
[89:07] were giving it these crazy MNAVs and
[89:10] it might just
[89:12] perform more normally and it'd be harder
[89:14] to justify owning MSTR instead of
[89:19] owning just Bitcoin in cold storage.
[89:22] Um I could see that happening, but I
[89:24] definitely like there's no margin call
[89:27] on his Bitcoin. Um
[89:29] So,
[89:30] we'll see. But, the market clearly
[89:32] the Bitcoin market seemingly
[89:35] you know, cares a lot about the position
[89:37] that they're in and wants wants to see
[89:39] his action. So, his actions of
[89:41] increasing the USD reserve, now selling
[89:43] Bitcoin, he is communicating back to the
[89:45] market and trying to say,
[89:48] "I hear you.
[89:50] Here's some pain. I'm willing to take
[89:52] some pain." Cuz at some point one point,
[89:54] he was selling
[89:56] MSTR below NAV and uh and still buying
[90:00] Bitcoin in the face of all of this and
[90:02] you know, Bitcoin went to 58K, MSTR fell
[90:05] to 70 bucks or something. So, we'll see.
[90:07] I don't know. If you guys have questions
[90:09] about it, let me know, but like I said,
[90:11] I this stuff like all the you know,
[90:14] financial engineering
[90:16] preferred this that um
[90:20] it it is not as interesting to me as
[90:22] some you know, as like core Bitcoin
[90:24] stuff.
[90:26] Uh so, it's not a bad or good thing.
[90:29] It's just kind of my personal taste.
[90:31] But uh I'm obviously happy to talk about
[90:33] it as it's interesting to you guys or as
[90:36] it matters to Bitcoin. But I thought I
[90:38] made my point pretty clear earlier. Like
[90:42] no company including strategy, but that
[90:44] goes for BlackRock, that goes for
[90:45] Strike, 21, no no company
[90:48] is Bitcoin. Bitcoin would survive
[90:50] without any of us.
[90:52] Like so, I thought I made that point
[90:54] pretty clear earlier. So, if I ever feel
[90:56] like a company is threatening Bitcoin or
[90:59] it's relevant to talk about in regards
[91:01] to Bitcoin, I will bring it up, but
[91:04] yeah.
[91:06] Okay.
[91:07] Let's move on.
[91:09] Um
[91:10] I'm not even going to go into any of the
[91:12] other MSTR questions. That that should
[91:13] have answered pretty much all of them.
[91:15] Too much time spent on that anyway.
[91:17] Uh Strike questions. Shout out to
[91:20] everyone who received a margin warning
[91:22] from Strike. Question for Jack, when
[91:24] auto top up?
[91:25] It's a good question. I mean, I think
[91:27] our priority was to get out the like no
[91:30] margin call, no liquidation anything
[91:32] first.
[91:34] Um but uh
[91:35] I will ask product and get back to you.
[91:37] I know it's somewhere on our road map
[91:39] for sure.
[91:40] Uh good afternoon Jack. Not going to
[91:41] make the live today, so I'm asking in
[91:43] advance. Last year you mentioned joint
[91:45] accounts was in the future road map. Any
[91:46] idea when? Yes. I uh I want to say Q3,
[91:51] which is this quarter that we're in.
[91:53] But I also don't want to let you down.
[91:55] Um the president of the company who also
[91:57] leads a lot of our product stuff, well,
[91:59] all of our product stuff. Um
[92:02] she is at a wedding this week. So, she's
[92:05] usually here in this little dock I have
[92:07] helping me
[92:09] be as accurate as I possibly can, but
[92:11] she is out of office. So, I will get
[92:14] back to you once I talk to her.
[92:16] Um but uh I appreciate the support and
[92:19] yeah, I it's a this year thing.
[92:21] Obviously, we want it sooner than later.
[92:24] There's just so many things on the go
[92:26] that people want, but uh let's go with
[92:28] Q3. Which would make it uh you know,
[92:32] maybe September, August, September
[92:33] thing, but we'll see.
[92:36] Uh when personal line of credit for Ohio
[92:39] uh and for California. Calif- should be
[92:42] soon. I mean, this is it's all license.
[92:45] It's all license. So, you know, one of
[92:46] the funny things about Strike, nobody
[92:49] has had the patience and the ability to
[92:52] focus on just building a Bitcoin
[92:54] institution globally. And all that takes
[92:56] is ruthless execution, ruthless focus,
[92:59] and just getting every single license,
[93:02] shutting up and listening to Bitcoiners,
[93:04] building what they actually want, and
[93:06] not guessing and go going off and
[93:08] getting distracted by crazy ideas. And
[93:11] so, that's what we're committed to
[93:12] doing. And a lot of this stuff is just
[93:15] we apply for these licenses, the
[93:16] regulators come out to our offices, they
[93:18] examine us, they inspect us, they do all
[93:20] this [ __ ] and then we get the license
[93:21] and we turn it on. So, we're all I mean,
[93:24] all of this is a any day now, we're
[93:26] working on it type of thing. Most of it
[93:28] is licenses. Like for example, now we've
[93:30] got Mika and Strike Europe our next big
[93:33] like market project um is both the UK
[93:36] and Canada.
[93:37] Um but Strike Canada is well in the
[93:39] works, on our way, coming. We're really
[93:41] really excited about that. But the the
[93:44] technology is ready. I'm ready to serve
[93:46] Canadians. The problem is just licensing
[93:48] and structure and meeting with the
[93:50] regulators, and this [ __ ] takes time. I
[93:52] mean, I wanted to do this kind of
[93:54] two-sided market where we obviously lend
[93:56] out dollars to uh Bitcoiners who want to
[93:59] borrow against their Bitcoin. Now, where
[94:00] do I get the dollars from? Well, all
[94:02] these institutional people. And you say,
[94:03] "Well, why are the prices so high
[94:05] sometimes?" And and blah blah. Say,
[94:07] "Well, if there are people on our
[94:09] platform that want interest on their
[94:12] cash, and there are people on our
[94:13] platform that want cash borrowed against
[94:16] their Bitcoin, why don't I pair them
[94:17] up?" Where I say, "Hey,
[94:19] I'm going to pay 6%
[94:21] uh
[94:23] interest on cash that wants to
[94:25] contribute and basically have the their
[94:28] dollars be part of this giant pool that
[94:31] lends out against over-collateralized
[94:32] Bitcoin loans. And then Strike adds a
[94:34] couple percent for ourselves, for our
[94:36] take, and then we've lowered the rate
[94:39] that people are borrowing significantly.
[94:41] And it's not like, you know, all of the
[94:43] this money is going to some institution
[94:45] you guys don't know. It's Bitcoiners
[94:48] borrowing and lending to Bitcoiners.
[94:49] We're creating this dual-sided market
[94:51] where like someone's USDT in Argentina
[94:54] can be on the app gathering 6% interest
[94:56] financing someone to open a a new
[94:58] business in Manhattan.
[95:00] And I want to do that today. Like, why
[95:03] wouldn't I be able to do that? I have a
[95:04] global customer base. I have tons of
[95:06] people that want interest on their cash
[95:08] deposits and tons of people that want to
[95:10] borrow cash against their Bitcoin
[95:11] deposits. The only reason is I don't
[95:14] have the right license. [ __ ] me. What
[95:16] the hell? And so, when's that going to
[95:18] launch? As soon as we're allowed to. So,
[95:22] so much of it is just And then what
[95:24] happens is a lot of these companies,
[95:26] they get wide-eyed, they get ambitious,
[95:28] then they get into prediction market
[95:29] shitcoins, they get distracted, too much
[95:31] VC capital, they lose control of the
[95:32] company, and all of a sudden the board
[95:34] controls the company. Like for Strike, I
[95:36] control Strike. Strike is mine. Every
[95:38] decision that we make, you track back to
[95:41] me. Period. [ __ ] that board board this
[95:44] that none of that [ __ ]
[95:46] And but you see these companies raise
[95:48] too much VC money and they lose control,
[95:50] and then the company starts going to
[95:52] wherever it's best profit seeking. It It
[95:54] has a very high time preference, and
[95:56] then no one ends up building like the
[95:57] global Bitcoin bank or like the global
[95:59] financial institution for Bitcoiners.
[96:01] So, anyway, sorry. This started a
[96:04] you know, one personal line of credit
[96:05] for Ohio. It's coming, but all these
[96:07] things are coming. It's just chipping
[96:09] away the licenses, making sure we stay
[96:12] profitable, we stay listening to you
[96:13] guys. We continue to harden our culture,
[96:16] our work ethic, our execution. How quick
[96:19] can we go from you guys tweeting me
[96:20] something to launching it? And using AI
[96:23] and and so, anyway.
[96:27] Um okay, other. So,
[96:30] uh
[96:31] two questions that are random, and then
[96:34] uh it's World Cup time.
[96:35] Dylan, question for Jack. Now that you
[96:37] have full
[96:38] uh
[96:39] self-driving. Is that what FSD is?
[96:43] I think so.
[96:45] Uh
[96:46] what are your thoughts?
[96:49] Um I I think you're talking about
[96:51] self-driving on the Tesla.
[96:54] Best thing ever.
[96:55] Ever.
[96:56] Um I actually had a rental car
[96:59] where I was touring uh wedding venues,
[97:03] and having to drive a car again was
[97:06] brutal.
[97:07] Um the self-driving thing, it's it's
[97:09] also safer for everybody on the road. I
[97:11] mean, 10 out of 10.
[97:13] Um I think it's great. And
[97:16] um
[97:17] yeah, I don't know. I I don't have
[97:19] enough good things to say about the
[97:20] self-driving. Every car will have it
[97:22] soon,
[97:23] and people will use it more. Like right
[97:25] now, I'm not allowed to go on the app
[97:27] and basically say like
[97:29] just program it like go to Whole Foods,
[97:32] and someone puts the groceries in there
[97:34] and come back.
[97:36] I I can't tell it if I'm at a bar like
[97:38] come pick me up and take me home. Like I
[97:39] can't tell it to do that yet. I'm sure
[97:41] cuz regulators are getting in the way. I
[97:43] mean, it's the the technology's fully
[97:45] capable. So, I'm very bullish.
[97:47] Uh and then last question, Yo Jack, what
[97:49] kind of meat smoker do you use and what
[97:52] are the best cuts for someone just
[97:54] getting started? I have a Traeger.
[97:57] Um
[97:58] now that I'm home, happy to be home,
[98:00] I will be smoking
[98:03] let's see cuz I use AI to kind of guide
[98:05] me through the smoking process. Again,
[98:08] highly recommend bullish AI. Just
[98:10] there might be some malinvestment along
[98:12] the way that needs a bailout. Tomorrow
[98:14] I'm smoking a 5-lb bison chuck roast. Um
[98:18] it'll be an about an 8-hour smoke. So,
[98:20] I'll I'll start it when I wake up and
[98:22] I'll have it for dinner.
[98:24] Uh
[98:25] so I do the as I told you guys, I do
[98:27] this kind of um like butcher's selection
[98:30] cut from
[98:32] uh
[98:33] what is it?
[98:34] Something in bolo.
[98:36] Uh
[98:38] Beckon
[98:41] so I I do I get a random box once a
[98:44] month. So, this month I have some duck.
[98:47] I've got a bunch of bison.
[98:49] Um I got some elk. And I've smoked all
[98:52] sorts of stuff. I've smoked elk
[98:54] shoulder.
[98:55] Uh I've smoked uh beef ribs. I've smoked
[98:59] I mean tomorrow I'm smoking
[99:02] um
[99:03] uh the bison chuck roast. So, I just
[99:06] look it up. I mean it's really simple.
[99:08] Once you have the Traeger,
[99:10] the most complex it will get now
[99:12] depends. Obviously, there's professional
[99:14] smokers that make it more complex cuz
[99:17] they're good and they invest their time
[99:18] in it. But I don't I mean the most
[99:21] complex smoke is where halfway through
[99:23] when you check the temperature, you want
[99:24] to take it out, spray a bunch of [ __ ] on
[99:27] it like beef tallow or something,
[99:29] re-wrap it and put it in a container so
[99:32] that the juice and the flavor stays this
[99:34] that and the third. But that's as
[99:36] complex as it gets is that like halfway
[99:38] through my 8 hours an hour four, take it
[99:40] out for a second, wrap it in some tin
[99:42] foil, spray some [ __ ] on it, and then
[99:44] put it back in. But really it just sits
[99:46] there. It's a slow cook. So it's like
[99:48] putting something in the microwave but
[99:49] for 8 hours instead of
[99:51] 8 seconds.
[99:53] So it's really simple. It's really easy.
[99:55] It you know, especially with AI. So what
[99:57] I do is
[99:58] you know, obviously you got to defrost
[99:59] these things. So I pull out my freezer
[100:01] every single morning. I pull out the
[100:03] freezer and I look at all I have. I've
[100:05] got Wagyu hot dogs. I've got Wagyu beef
[100:10] patties for burgers. I've got
[100:12] bison chuck roast, all the [ __ ] And I
[100:14] look at it and I say, "Huh, what would I
[100:16] want to have this week?" And I pull it
[100:18] out. I put it in the fridge to let it
[100:20] defrost. And then when it's time to
[100:22] smoke something, I take a picture of it.
[100:25] So I took a picture of this 4.7 lb bison
[100:29] chuck roast. And I said, "What's the
[100:31] plan?" {question mark} to my little AI
[100:34] tool. And it just gave me the whole
[100:36] protocol. So now I'm ready to rock and
[100:38] roll. Tomorrow wake up, we're smoking
[100:40] this bad boy. Maybe I'll post some
[100:42] photos to Noster. So
[100:45] that's it.
[100:46] Keep it simple, stupid.
[100:50] All right. Well, go team USA. Hey, hang
[100:53] in there guys. Bear market, enjoy the
[100:54] summer, get outside, earn more than you
[100:56] spend. All the same [ __ ] I say. I don't
[100:58] want to drown your ears, but we got
[101:01] this. We got this and we matter.
[101:03] That notion that like
[101:05] if without BlackRock Bitcoin would fail,
[101:08] [ __ ] right off. [ __ ] right off.
[101:12] We are the ones that are hodling right
[101:15] now. Our DCAs from 6 months ago
[101:18] are not in profit and we don't give a
[101:20] [ __ ] We're hodling. We're producing
[101:22] cash flow. We're not over leveraged.
[101:24] We're not distressed. We're working
[101:26] hard. We're stacking sats. We're staying
[101:28] humble. Keep that attitude. Keep that
[101:30] energy. Don't let anyone scare you or
[101:33] wear you out of this market. We're going
[101:34] to be fine. Hopefully some of these
[101:36] slides and this data showed you
[101:38] AI is not all that it claims it is, the
[101:40] Fed is full of [ __ ] and Bitcoin is
[101:43] right where you want it to be if you're
[101:45] long-term bullish. Just hang in there.
[101:49] All right. Go team USA. I will talk to
[101:51] you guys uh on the internet, comments,
[101:54] questions, feedback. You know how it
[101:55] goes. I love you all. Oh, last thing.
[102:00] I saw like
[102:01] a dozen of you guys on my wedding venue
[102:03] trip. I was I was along the West Coast.
[102:06] And so many of you guys came up. Um I
[102:09] got some DMs like, "Hey, I see you're
[102:11] eating lunch with your fiance. I don't
[102:12] want to interrupt you guys." Dude,
[102:14] interrupt us.
[102:15] I love it. We love it.
[102:18] When I tell you, if you would have told
[102:20] the 18-year-old version of me dropping
[102:21] out of college that you'd get into this
[102:24] crazy Bitcoin thing that has a real
[102:26] chance to change the world, and people
[102:28] would want to come up and give you a hug
[102:29] and take a picture and have a chat about
[102:32] Bitcoin with you, like I wouldn't
[102:34] believe you for a second. I am so
[102:37] grateful for this life and for the
[102:39] relationship I have with you guys.
[102:41] You're never bothering me. You're never
[102:43] not like, "Please." And so I I must have
[102:45] hugged a dozen of you guys and your
[102:47] families along my road trip with my
[102:49] fiance. And it was such a joy. So just I
[102:53] want to say to you guys how much I
[102:55] appreciate the support and the
[102:56] relationship I have with the community.
[102:59] And how much you guys care about me.
[103:01] Like you guys really I for for a lot of
[103:03] you long-term Bitcoiners, I've grown up
[103:05] in front of your eyes. I've gone from
[103:06] college dropout to, you know, on my way
[103:09] to hopefully getting married uh next
[103:11] summer and
[103:12] you guys really care about me and my
[103:14] company, and uh it means a lot. It
[103:17] really does. I don't take it for
[103:18] granted. So for those of you listening
[103:20] that I did get to meet, it was awesome
[103:23] meeting you guys, meeting some of your
[103:25] kids, your significant others, uh taking
[103:27] some photos, sharing some hugs. Um and
[103:29] if I see you guys out, um please say hi.
[103:32] Um, I really genuinely, from the bottom
[103:34] of my heart, I wouldn't have it any
[103:36] other way.
[103:37] Um, I hope I meet all of you someday.
[103:40] So.
[103:41] Cool. Okay. I'll talk to you guys later.
[103:43] See you.