[00:01] greetings everybody this is bob lucas on august the 17th 2021 i hope you're all doing really well and thanks for being here this is yet another video another installment in the four-year journey a journey now that dates back to december of 2018 at the depths of the last bear market and at this rate we'll be approaching the third anniversary of this series in a couple of months it's been a few months since the last video i think almost two months of
[00:32] course a lot has occurred since then and we've got a lot to cover today i polled followers on twitter for questions that they may have on this journey and essentially they came down to the standard kind of questions that have always been asked of in the past which is essentially where we are in the four year journey a new question that's come up which i find pretty interesting is the question of have we already topped in this cycle have we seen the bull market top
[01:03] and of course the model portfolio when to take action what are the targets we'll cover the idea of all coins very briefly and then i'll briefly go into a super cycle and lengthening cycles discussion as that seems to come up often as well but before i get into the charts i i've marked the first item here as sanity check because i just want to talk very briefly along some of the themes i've shared in the past around risk management and just perception
[01:34] views and how we approach the markets in general you know and it's just very important for you to understand that this journey has been more about a guide and not about prediction okay it's great when a prediction comes through or your view comes through and i have a lot of confidence in my own work but i don't believe it in an absolute manner meaning that i'm very capable
[02:04] of quickly identifying where the primary view on my work is no longer accurate or correct and i'm quick to adapt and to change my allocations based on what i think is the most or the new most likely path forward and that's important because we need to be adaptive markets change daily hourly weekly monthly any time frame you can think about it
[02:34] there are almost an infinite amount of variables and decision points that go into the progression of an asset class and its price over time and information that we had in 2018 may or may not be applicable okay the four year cycle basically states that over a four year period we're going to get this bear market to bear market type rotation okay and that's something that this asset class i believe follows
[03:05] but generally what happens in between is very much a fluid process a fluid process that will over time react negatively and positively in sometimes very volatile and very extreme manners and we've seen that in this four year cycle in itself so it's just very important to have that understanding when you approach a market like this to be adaptive to the changes as they come along so i
[03:38] just want to make it clear again that you know i'm not nostradamus i don't pretend to have all the answers all i that i can say with confidence is i have experience over a pretty long period of time trading markets investing in markets looking at cycles and i'm using that to what i believe will be an edge but not a guarantee not something that i can say and i have never said
[04:08] from the beginning that this is the path that must be taken and that's important again for the reasons i outlined earlier so we need to be flexible and adaptive and to respond to changes in the market structures and i'll talk a little bit about that over the four year cycle but if you do recall i had some people say to me well you know has has the four year outlook necessarily changed or has it been invalidated or anything like that and the answer simply is no because if you
[04:38] go back to the very first video i presented a couple of scenarios and back then bitcoin was at 35 or 38 hundred dollars and we were beginning or about to begin the next four year cycle and i pretty much said this is how i believe it should roughly unfold based on prior cycles based on a secular bull market based on a young rapidly growing network but i also outlined possibilities where
[05:08] it just may not unfold like that where we may not even make a new all-time high back then when it was at 4 000. and those were scenarios i was willing to accept and i modeled my portfolio around that i was confident that a bear market low was just about in play and i could have easily said well if i'm that confident i'll put in 100 of my net worth or 80 of my net worth but i didn't because i knew just back then like i
[05:38] know today or last year that there's risks associated with investing in every in any asset class and therefore my allocation represented what i understood the risks to be and of course none of these thoughts are new nothing here is that i'm presenting it's not something i've not repeated many many times over the series in this video but i feel that it's important to keep outlining um
[06:08] that framework when we look at charts and we'll look at possibilities because once we start looking at charts and we start projecting where we believe the cycle may go it tends to lead to a lot of excitement and a lot of emotional response where the thought process begins to go towards how much money you could be making or will be making and the idea of where we could be wrong or allocations and risks begin to be ignored so i want to start with the video with that idea so let's go into
[06:39] the four-year outlook from a chart perspective all right starting to look from a quarterly perspective each bar representing three months and my first initial takeaway is that the secular the ten year or the um the the price action over essentially the entire life cycle of bitcoin remains firmly up the trend is and i see no break in that the 10 bar
[07:11] moving average is up and we are comfortably above the 10 bar moving average so from a secular standpoint this looks uh fairly you know fairly controlled and if anything the most recent pullback is essentially just reverting back to the rising mean right here when we scroll down and and zoom in a little bit down to the monthly okay
[07:41] so on the monthly chart here we are now taking a look at the candles here we are now 31 months into what it obviously should be a roughly 48-month cycle a cycle of course measured from one low to the next low where a cycle peaks is is irrelevant from a measurement of the cycle the cycle is measured from the low to the lower and
[08:13] where the peak occurs is typically influenced by the longer term direction or trend of the asset so in a secular bull market you expect the peak of that cycle to occur much closer to the next low than you would um on the on the other side of that of that equation and that's simply because in a rising market over a longer term period you need to spend more months or more time
[08:43] in a rising manner than you do in a declining manner so so far since bitcoin's inception we're seeing right translated cycles where the peak occurs roughly around the three-year mark of a four-year cycle followed by a 12-month declining period in the bear market and we've seen that in the last two four-year cycles at the moment we have a peak that occurred back in april and if that were to occur this peak would
[09:13] not fit at least the prior two cycles and two cycles is obviously not a large enough sample size to have extreme confidence in but when you look at bitcoin from a market cap perspective you look at bitcoin from an adoption standpoint and the growth standpoint it does to me appear that atop this point in the cycle of a four year would be premature and would not fit at least my
[09:45] understanding or expectations of where this cycle should should peak and that peak from a price perspective would only be around about three times the prior peak in 2017 meaning from a peak back four years ago that price would only be up 3x for an asset class like this seems to me to be premature so my takeaway from the monthly chart is that we are still
[10:15] respecting at least a 10 month moving average and the 10 bar normally is a is a moving average i like to use for respecting a trend and we pulled well above that 10 bar moving average recently with that run-up courtesy of these six monthly bars and my belief here in this 55 decline which if you look at prior cycles is not something we would expect my belief here
[10:47] is that we overshot at least from an intermediate time frame perspective overshot and we are spending both time and price retracing back to a level that we can re-accumulate from and continue the four-year cycle but i think that's changed a little bit that's changed the dynamics of this cycle somewhat because i think from a top view perspective and where we think this
[11:17] cycle might top mate up in the past obviously i've shared the idea that the december time frame looks more likely and that's simply because the prior two cycles went three years up one year down so the natural at least best guess or expectation would have been to suggest that by the end of the year around that period that's where we'll see somewhat of a blow-off top occur but i think with this consolidation and the need to probably re-accumulate for a number more
[11:48] months i think we need to move the window and again the window in a cycle the top the window timing window is very fluid and there will come a time and i'll cover this shortly in the future where i believe a four year cycle cycle will not spend three years rising it may spend only one year and may spend three years declining and that's what a left translated cycle is so the peak can occur
[12:19] left of the midpoint or right at the midpoint depending on where the longer term trend is going so while the trend is higher we expect the peak to occur much deeper into the the four-year cycle so for that reason i believe now that probably the earliest we can be looking for is december and more likely to be now at some point in the first half of 2022
[12:49] and some people were like well give me an absolute date give me you know give me something more concrete and the simple answer is as i said in the beginning we just don't know we need to be adaptive and fluid with these expectations the only thing i have a lot more confidence in is where these peaks where these bear market declines these savage bear market declines occur and i believe still that at the end of next year there will be some significant selling into what will
[13:19] be a four year bear market cycle low but up until that point and getting to the peak of this current four year cycle is something that we will adapt with so my view here is that that window now is at the earliest december more likely to be probably january or february and may go as far as july so the next question becomes well how how can you have a july peak for example and then just a six month bear market well
[13:52] again if we if we are restricted in our views of what a cycle my cycle may look like and think that it could be a year down well then we start to really um restrict the possible outcomes that we're willing to accept and that's not something we want to do with cycles we want to be flexible with that and the reason why we may only get a short but very significant bear market decline possibly just six months
[14:23] um is that one bitcoin can easily over a very short period of time essentially give up significant ground and by significant i mean 60 70 80 percent you can see it basically in this one candle this is a 55 percent monthly decline uh maybe let's call it two month decline from the peak in april to the lows at the end of may and if you have six months worth then you could easily see how we could see a
[14:54] 70 or even 85 percent as we did it last cycle decline over just a short period of time but the main reason why i think that could occur and this goes i think a little bit towards the lengthening cycles argument and for all of you out there i will be having another collaboration this week with benjamin cohen uh on cycles in general and my views and and sharing a discussion on his views um i believe what we're setting up for
[15:24] is a blow-off it's sort of a double blow-off move and i've shared this almost from probably one of the earlier videos back in in 2019 where i believe the next cycle is more likely to occur left translated and i think that goes firmly against some of the other folks out there with with certain models that are based on supply issuance for example but i believe if we look at examples
[15:55] from from technology and other asset classes over a longer period of time over a longer cycle and i'm calling it a 16-year cycle which is a common uh time frame cycle in other asset classes as well so four times four year cycles i think we need or we could see a period and a period of multi-year consolidation and declines and those aren't necessarily bad for
[16:25] bitcoin or crypto in general um it's just a reflection of the the need for an asset class over a longer period of time once it obtains a much wider adoption and much wider distribution and price has overshot sort of you know some underlying value or at least a value in today's time in niches longer period of time to consolidate but those are periods there's a good periods of of rebuilding or building further layers and and
[16:56] getting much deeper into the technology so i don't want to get too far ahead of myself but i believe we could be looking for a situation where we have a peak up and again numbers and throwing out targets i know a lot of people like to hear targets but for me they're mostly irrelevant i've been looking for time peaks you know a peak in a certain time window then looking at shorter time frame indicators to and also sentiment in general so what are people talking about
[17:26] what crazy stories are they concocting at certain points and if we get up to the 150 and 200 000 range which i think we can get to then i'm looking for narratives like it's you know it's gonna be a super cycle to a million just don't sell right now it could be a million by the end of next year or something like that and those types of cues i'll be taking for when i would be looking to possibly exit out of the market or at least take
[17:56] profit or at least do some some hedging whatever the response will be i'll be looking to sell down my position up in that area and some people also ask well how can you sell bitcoin for fiat or dollars well you know over a shorter period of time um it's okay to be in another asset class if that asset class is going to outperform and the dollar could easily outperform bitcoin just as it did in the bear market in 19
[18:26] sorry in 18 and periods before that that uh you know that decline that bitcoin declined 85 percent versus the dollar so do i really care if inflation's at six percent or eight percent i don't i want to be able to protect what i've been able to achieve if it gets to that point because i want to be able to buy more bitcoin in the end you know i want to be able to come out of this with being able to at the end of the next
[18:56] bear market be able to buy back in and for example using the model portfolio as just one example um you know if we bought 25 bitcoin for the model you know i'd like to be able to get 400 bitcoin for every 25 i put in at the next bear market low if it can be executed correctly and it's not going to be perfect i mean nobody gets it perfect but that's been the whole point of this journey from the beginning is being able to stay the course over a four year cycle
[19:28] the hardest part was getting in at the very bottom and being able to buy a couple more times at significant capitulation points in the cycle and as i've been trying to help you with this this entire period in the emotional journey and the emotional um what it takes from an emotional perspective to be able to weather the volatility in the ups and downs to the eventual point where the four-year cycle peaks
[19:59] so i see a situation where we can get up to that point and we can possibly sharply decline and then go for a final more impulse like run to a absolute bubble peak a bubble peak say and at the end of 2023 possibly into 2024 followed by a bear market that may be spurred on by some significant worldwide coordinated
[20:29] uh regulation against crypto in general an attempt by so the powers to be to really put you know put a stop or to um slow down the uh the mass encroachment that bitcoin and crypto in general is placing on traditional finance and traditional power structures there will be and and i've shared this with you before and you're already seeing the rumblings of this there is fear from traditional sources
[21:00] on the growth of bitcoin and crypto in general and therefore there'll need to be a natural response from from from those groups um in order to try and get ahead of it i think it's a futile attempt in the long run but in the short run don't underestimate their ability to to really put put the brakes on this for some period of time and then the industry as a whole will have to come to a middle ground perhaps meet some regulation fight some
[21:33] invent and code around some regulation or with regulation for example so i see that coming in the future again the further out you go the harder it is to accurately um to have a good look and and be right on some of this but i think um to expect that there won't be some type of significant attempt to um you know to stop crypto in general
[22:03] i i think is um is not very not a very sound uh approach so i see that coming and this is where again i think you get sort of some idea of a lengthening cycle in my interpretation of a lengthening cycle if we consider this and if you look at this if we go up to say just throwing our numbers 200 and back down to 60 and up to let's call it 600 or 500. um in the end this will look like the
[22:34] peak and this will look like the peak and this this peak here will look more like just a retracement up to that so in my view and in my work these apart these two peaks are part of two different cycles that spurs on the next bear market and if we get something like this i think we may be in a situation where we may not see another high for the rest of the decade because by the time you get to the next low which actually would be around the
[23:04] 2027-2028 time frame it could take a good two years to that halving to be able to climb out and reach an all-time high again so it may not be until 2030 2031 after that peak where you then get another new all-time high again these are ideas and they're not actionable necessarily today what's actionable is the portfolio that we have in front of us and how we execute on that over the
[23:36] remaining months and possibly a year and a half or two years into the next expected cycle low which brings us to the the question i think was asked almost the most if not the second most in the comments and that is that we already see a top and i like that so many people have asked this because it just it just goes to the amount of fear that is out there and of course some of that is warranted we did go down 55
[24:06] um i think a lot of people missed the boat on that run from 20 or 10 000 to 60 000. it occurred so quickly i think a lot of people were kind of waiting um waiting to get their full allocation i'm hoping members or followers at least of the four year journey uh we're not in that that boat i think we've been positioned now for a very long time and i think a lot of people also had a lot riding on this and have a lot
[24:37] riding on this and from a paper profit perspective we're looking at how much they had how much what the nominal value of their bitcoin holding was at 60 and 65 000 and now look at it and think well i'm down 30 on that 40 and if i you know what if this is the top and what if we ride this all the way back down i've lost all that open profit and i know a lot of people bought on the way up because they fear they didn't have enough so they added and added more
[25:09] at 40 and 45 50 and 60 000. something i've been saying from the very beginning you don't want to be doing you don't want to be adding above the 20 000 level you want to get those positions early and get the core holding that you can comfortably ride to the four year cycle top because if you keep averaging your position up one your position grows relative to your net worth to a point that makes it difficult to sleep comfortably because you've got so much writing on it but two you start really
[25:40] averaging up that cost and when you see a 45 50 decline like we did there are many situations i know of where folks have been involved involved with this from the bear market lows but have a position that is you know just slightly profitable for example and not up the 12 you know 1200 or 1300 that the model portfolio is up because they thought they had enough and then it went up to 60 000 and thought geez if i
[26:11] had if i had everything in it you know i would you know i could i could retire and and and buy the most expensive beachfront home so but let me not make that mistake again let me buy at 60 now with everything because it's going to 200. and that's that's just the definition of of a market that has gone too far ahead of itself and that type of response is is a hallmark of a market like that it induces you to make emotional decisions you wouldn't normally make
[26:42] but at the time they seemed like they were rational to you so i like the fact that so many are asking do we already top because it's just it just goes to the amount of fear that is out there at the moment in this market looking at a weekly chart and i named this video the last hurdle because going to what i said earlier we don't know we don't have all the answers i
[27:12] and there is a probability high enough for me to acknowledge that there is a chance that the market the four-year cycle did top and i talked about that in the last video but it's not my primary view by any means i i give it something like if i had to give it a percent maybe a 15 or 20 percent chance which is it's a reasonable chance but there is a chance that the market topped in this area
[27:43] and therefore this first initial decline was that that first drop from a top and then this is that impulse counter trend move up three quarters of the way to the highs call it a bull trap in this area before continuation in a bear market there is that chance but i don't think that's what we're seeing and if we do get a drop down from this point and we start to make a test
[28:13] towards a 30 000 level then i personally will be re reducing a significant amount of my exposure at that twenty eight thousand dollar level at this point i don't see at this point in the four year cycle where we are in the depth of the cycle i don't see why we should be heading back to test 30 000 and we shouldn't be going below 30 000.
[28:43] i don't really see a scenario right now either where we drop sharply down and v all the way up so i would be protecting my downside protecting my portfolio with a drop below 28 000. i can't tell you exactly how you would do it okay the most simple answer generally is you sell down some of your position and hopefully if you've been following the journey at 28 000 it's still
[29:13] close to an eight times return on your portfolio now i can appreciate not everybody's in at that level and at different levels but i'm hoping you're in at reasonable levels so for me it would be a combination of selling down some position but mostly also hedging through some derivatives for example and that's that's a topic that's not really uh you know well geared for this video series i'm not a financial advisor i can't tell you how you would do that but i'm letting you
[29:43] know that from a model standpoint i will simply be selling down a decent amount of that portfolio at twenty eight thousand so that's the downside possibility again it's a real possibility and i'm gonna flip over to a daily i don't like to show the daily chart on this series but um essentially i also think that this august third low of around about 37 600 should really hold
[30:14] over the next month or so on the way up um we do have a significant cycle low a 60-day cycle low so just like there's a 16-year cycle and there's four four-year cycles there are 60-day cycles within a four-year cycle and this is going to be a test this is the final hurdle coming up i believe in september where that cycle low if it can stay comfortably above the two prior 60 day cycle lows the one in may and the one in
[30:44] july then it completes what i believe is a a bottom and shows a reversal of the decline that began in april that would mean a high we already have a higher high here's the peak of the last 60-day cycle on june 15th we already have a higher high a higher low in the september 60 day time frame puts us at a higher low as well and that is essentially the type of
[31:15] confirmation we're looking for to confirm the resumption of a bull trend further to that depending on where this current cycle peaks let's call it just for argument's sake 50 000 in the next few weeks what we would want to see coming out of a september low we want to see a september low that holds well above the prior law of course then we want to see that rally up in
[31:46] october to take out wherever this high occurs and if that happens then we have a series of higher highs at the 60-day cycle time frame and in my opinion a firm resumption of the primary bull trend something like this so a 60-day cycle low will shake out i believe a decline over the next sort of month depending on whenever that begins it could be next week the week after we don't know
[32:17] and then a reversal and a take out of this high that forms puts us on a path then over just probably three 60-day cycles to what could be the four-year cycle peak in the early portion of 2022. so this is still my primary view my preferred view i don't want to be shaken out of that view i like to be confident in my view but again i have a plan
[32:48] for where that view is not correct and that's why i said there's a downside hedge there it's a downside level where i don't want to be involved i don't want to have all that exposure out there i want to bank more of that profit it won't be anything like the profit that i had hoped for or expected but um it would be significant nonetheless because why would i want to do that well and some people would say well you know
[33:18] but bitcoin is going to be at 300 or 400 within the next few years and that's great if you are a pure hodler that's great you probably already went through an 85 decline in the last bear market and you've come out shining and that strategy is okay if your strategy is 10 years i'm not going to touch this then in some respects really these videos aren't for you anyway okay these videos are for folks who want to huddle but also take advantage of the major events that occur within a four year
[33:49] cycle so i would get out because i see the possibility of at least 20 000 but i can't rule out certain other key levels like say 13 to 14 000 or maybe all the way down to 10 000. and that seems absolutely extreme but when bitcoin was at 10 000 only 11 months ago getting to 60 000 over a few months seemed extremely extreme and it was only a year and here it is here in march it's
[34:19] only been a year and four months or five months when bitcoin was down at 3 500. so things happen very quickly in this space and i just don't want to be caught in the position where i can't get out and i think that happened to a lot of people in the last bear market and i don't want to ride my position down yes at 30 000 it's going to be down 55 percent and that's that's just part of investing when you don't get your upside expectation it's very difficult to get out because some
[34:50] could have made the argument where you could have gotten out at 50 055 but i didn't want to because i had already taken some profit in my initial investment 28 for the sole purpose of looking for a massive blow off top that was 7x 10x 15x from the last bit bull market and if we're going to end up with just a 3x then that's not something that is easy to plan for and to get out because getting out at that higher level here
[35:21] could have easily seen the market continue up and leave everybody behind so the same kind of thinking on the downside you don't want to get caught in a situation where the market drops and you're stuck with your full allocation especially if you've averaged up and you're just riding it and writing it lower and it gets to the point if it drops below 20 where it becomes so painful that you capitulate and that happens way more than you believe if it hasn't happened to many of you already
[35:51] and you don't want to be riding a position to the depths of a decline and capitulate at the very worst time you want to remove that possibility by just acknowledging that the market's breaking down it's broken broke breaking down over a longer period of time and i want to protect at least what i have in the market so that's how i'm approaching the downside scenario i'm always focused on risk i'm a risk manager first and then you know my
[36:22] whenever i enter into any trade or any investment always my first question is okay this is great this sounds great right the numbers look good whether it's a balance sheet or a profit loss statement or just a business idea or a chart but i always say okay where are these assumptions wrong where could they be wrong and what could be the impact and this is what i'm doing here this is what i've done throughout the journey so i'm always focused on risk but then on the flip side i'm also focused on
[36:53] seeing out my thesis and seeing out my dream and my thesis has been a four-year cycle blow-off peak towards the end of this year or the top of this four-year cycle and i just don't want to be looking back in the future and seeing bitcoin get to a blow-off peak and look back and say man i i got shaken out because everybody said there was a bull trap back here and it just went right because it's so close
[37:23] now to the timing band for the four year cycle we don't know what type of behavior we get out of this whether we get a rocket out just keeps on going or whether we consolidate first it can take any multiple paths but i don't want to be out scared and then not being able to buy back in i prefer to have an invalidation point on the thesis and then yes take more of a loss or take less profit actually is a better terminology take less profit
[37:53] but be in it right now this is telling us right now four very powerful green candles coming off a decline that is a very classic looking reversal pattern in my mind and that's getting people both excited and fearful again and shake out into the september low makes sense to me as well and then i move up so as i've been saying all along i want to be in a position where i can sleep comfortably at night i've covered
[38:23] my investment and i'm just going to say give me what you got bitcoin can you get to a blower four year cycle peak and if you do i will be there for you and i will be to take advantage so that leads us to the question of model portfolio and you know when to take action there's a link to the model portfolio below and that's just a model okay it's just it's just designed to replicate the initial performance and
[38:53] the decision points along the way on our 100 000 invested portfolio and of course if you invested 10 000 or a million it's just a ratio to see how it would perform and i already outlined the act some of the actions here i've outlined the downside actions okay so 28 000 for me is a key level on the upside it's a fluid level especially now after a 55 decline if the bull
[39:24] market resumes and we begin to make a run to all-time highs and exceed then i believe the market has built or built up a significant amount of energy where a move of 4x 5x or six times is very achievable and bitcoin has shown us even in this in this four year cycle alone if you look at this weekly chart it's shown us from the march lows to this peak or even from this consolidation point in october to the
[39:55] peak or if you look at it back in april 19 to june these are just short bursts and even to the downside you get similar action these here from three thousand to fourteen 000 a 405 x and from 10 to 60 or 6x from the all-time high level obviously a 6x is a very big number even a 6x from this number from here is a very big number so you only need
[40:26] you know a 3x from the all-time highs to get us towards that 200 000 level so those numbers are very achievable if and again i use if we can get on a resumption of this bull trend so it's fluid i will be looking to the best of my ability if we if that scenario unfolds looking for the key indicators of where peak may occur and i'll probably be early or maybe slightly late
[40:57] but if we get a blow-off like that i'd be looking to take maximum profit probably holding a small core allocation of the portfolio to provide some insurance against a a a move that just really just blows everybody's mind away and i don't believe that's going to be the case i don't believe in that but again bitcoin has um at least taught me to appreciate
[41:27] that the outlier moves in this industry are significant significantly wider um the standard deviations are significantly uh more extreme in in this in in in in in this industry and i want to be at least positioned to be able to take advantage of that in that event so there will be a small holding of the of the of the portfolio that sort of always remains invested and personally i may you know i may do
[41:58] something like even hedge that holding on what i consider to be a blow off top but essentially i think let's first confirm that we're not in the bull trap let's see the next 60 day cycle we'll have a chance i'll i'll do another video before then obviously and i'm hoping the next video will be we cleared that hurdle and now we're off to the final run um and so we'll get a chance to at least have a deeper think into where some of those targets might be but again it's
[42:28] more about the time and the sentiment around where bitcoin will be at a certain point and not some arbitrary or nominal kind of number up in this area i don't like playing those fractional games where you sort of say you know prior cycle did this prior cycle did that it's diminished by x amount and so on that is just at least not how i uh focus my framework at all so that will be the key to um
[42:58] identifying when to take action in the portfolio uh all coins come up a lot and i've resisted talking about all coins throughout the entire series because this is a bitcoin series but let's just be frank of course i hold some altcoins ethereum being easily my second largest position um but you know in general bitcoin is you know is the sun and the altcoins are the satellites
[43:28] and they revolve around the bitcoin cycle at least they do for now and for this time and where we are today that may not be the case in the future i don't know but for now uh if the four year cycle is on then many good luck picking a winner okay everybody thinks they can pick the winner it's very difficult to do but many of the old coins will outperform bitcoin there's no doubt about that we know that as fact and many of them will not outperform at least on
[43:59] a bitcoin ratio standpoint so i don't want to get into all coins because again it's a bitcoin journey it's a huddled journey and if you i'm sure most of you or many of you are dabbling or trading or or have significant amounts in all coins i'm not going to get into the game of which one's going to win and which one's not i don't think many of us really know many of you read glossy websites and and very well constructed white papers and
[44:29] are influenced by key members of the community whether it's on social media or not and i think we are fooling ourselves a lot in believing some of the narratives that are out there so again some will do well some will actually have real world adoption and real world use cases that will do fantastically well good luck if you've got one of those if you find one of but in the end let me tell you a bear market is a perfect mechanism for revealing just what is
[44:59] junk and what is real they all go down but you'll see if you're holding anything remotely um remotely chunk like it's it's really really going to suffer like we saw in the last bear market there were most all coins at least went down 90 percent but the really bad ones went down 95 98 and many of them are back and that is not because of the project it's because of speculation in general so just be aware of that and then lastly
[45:29] super cycle lengthening cycle super cycle you know i don't know exactly what that means what does that mean does that mean a realization from from all corners of the globe that they need to be in bitcoin and there's hyper bitcoinization and it goes to a million if that's what that means i don't see it happening in that manner um again i will have a small allocation in case something ridiculous happens you know again i don't have the answers i just have my experience to fall on and
[46:01] and what i've seen but i haven't seen everything and i haven't and of course bitcoin and crypto in general is such a new thing that there are a lot of things we have nobody has seen that will surprise us so i don't know exactly about the super cycle idea i do like the idea of two peaks into the next two cycles the two four year cycles are outlined getting us to a very big number that may look like a super cycle 400 450 500 who knows is that a super cycle then
[46:32] that can happen i'm not big again on upside targets and then lengthening cycles i think there's a lot of discussion on this there's a lot of people out there who have different views on what a cycle is in general i think the term is far too broad and my work and my research on some pioneers in the space going back many many decades for me again the cycle is not about where the blow-off occurs because blow-offs and tops i mean there's going to be a point
[47:02] where bitcoin's not going to be going through blow-offs at least not the type that we're accustomed to seeing once it reaches some type of saturation or some type of maturity the cycles are going to really um constrict quite a bit and you're not going to see these massive massive 80 90 percent moves and and the the the level of volatility that we see today so for me a lengthening cycle could mean the same thing that some other people are saying uh if if the next four year cycle peaks
[47:33] in 2014 again is that a lengthening cycle it's not in the way that i look at it i'm focused on the next bear marker that's the cycle as far as i'm concerned that's the one that i'm looking for so in closing here on this video i i think all i can say is go over and watch a lot of the old videos i mean i put a lot of effort into the emotional perspective of investing i think that is the one area of trading and
[48:04] investing in general that is underserved that is the most important and it's not about getting it right and getting every move correct it is about the action and the events you know the actions you take during the extreme moments and those are the ones that are not easy to plan for and they certainly can't occur at that time so when you've got extreme events occurring if you're not prepared
[48:35] both with a plan but also mentally that's where the errors and the mistakes occur if you look at and if you ask anybody if you do a poll what was the one thing you did incorrectly what was the one biggest mistake in crypto over the last few years they're all going to correspond to a major volatile event in the space and it's going to be either something like the run up to 60 000 or a massive surge or it's going to be a capitulation event most likely in general it's going to be
[49:05] either one of those and that's the you know the fear side and the fear of missing outside and those are when emotions and the pulse rate is at its highest that the the mind is clouded so just go back and and just try and really listen to some of the thoughts around core holdings discipline and emotion i think those are those ideas are going to be serving you best in the future
[49:35] and we just now need to look forward to see how this cycle unfolds and be responsive and adaptive as best as possible thank you very much everybody i do appreciate you following and listening i hope it's been helpful and i wish you all the very best