Bitcoin entra en su ola más potente hasta la fecha

[0:00] I believe from an Elliott Wave
[0:01] perspective, we're entering a third
[0:02] wave. A big, the most powerful wave in
[0:04] crypto. For that to happen and the
[0:06] reasons behind it, we need this kind of
[0:09] doubt when it starts to go up. Um
[0:11] because the energy that should be
[0:12] associated should be real. For this to
[0:15] be a third wave, I also need the Silo
[0:19] IPO thing to be there. I need it to see
[0:22] >> What's going on, guys? Today, we have a
[0:23] great conversation with Jordi Visser. In
[0:25] it, we talk about interest rates, why
[0:27] everyone's worried about them going
[0:28] higher, but maybe it's not actually
[0:29] going to affect the economy or your
[0:30] portfolio as much as you think. We talk
[0:32] about Bitcoin and whether it's going
[0:33] higher, lower, or going to stay the
[0:35] same. Why people are so bearish, but
[0:36] Jordi is so bullish. And then we talk
[0:38] about AI agents and what's going on,
[0:40] changing in the way we work, the way
[0:41] that we live our lives, and how it is
[0:43] going to impact everything around us.
[0:45] This conversation has a ton of impact on
[0:47] what is actually going to occur in your
[0:49] portfolio, in the US economy over the
[0:51] coming years. I highly suggest that you
[0:53] listen to this very carefully, and I
[0:54] think that you'll get a lot of value out
[0:55] of it. Here's my latest conversation
[0:57] with Jordi Visser.
[0:58] All right, Jordi, we're back in studio.
[1:00] You got a Hawaiian shirt on, I got a
[1:01] Yankees hat, we're ready to rock and
[1:02] roll. Uh everyone has one big question,
[1:05] are interest rates going to go up or are
[1:06] they not? Scott Bessent this week gave
[1:08] an interview and he said, "I have more
[1:09] information than the market has."
[1:11] Obviously. Uh how are you analyzing
[1:14] whether rates will go up or not, and
[1:16] then what is the impact of them
[1:17] changing?
[1:19] >> All right. Fir- first of all, and I did
[1:21] post some stuff in X, and I'm going to
[1:23] do some stuff in the the video for the
[1:25] weekend. Um
[1:28] your question aligns with the way people
[1:30] are freaking out. Um I I personally,
[1:34] I'm shocked. For for let's just use
[1:36] tenure rates.
[1:38] For the most part, they've been stuck in
[1:40] a 50 basis point range for the last
[1:42] almost 4 years. Since the peak in 2022
[1:45] or the peak since they started to range
[1:47] trade.
[1:49] Rates should be going higher because
[1:50] nominal GDP is over 6% and nominal GDP
[1:54] is over 6% because of the AI trade,
[1:57] which is all related to the build out of
[1:58] the AI trade.
[2:00] I don't think people should be focused
[2:02] on whether rates are going up or not. I
[2:04] think the question is will rates do
[2:07] anything to the economy?
[2:09] And number two, and most importantly,
[2:11] the administration and Scott Bessent
[2:13] have shown their hands that they don't
[2:15] want rates to go higher.
[2:16] And regardless of the reasons, he's not
[2:18] going to publicly go out and say, "Well,
[2:19] we're really focused on the fact that
[2:21] the um the deficit's big, and if we let
[2:25] rates go higher, then our interest
[2:27] expense is going to be higher, and we're
[2:28] going to be in worse of a the debt
[2:30] situation."
[2:31] I think the more important thing for
[2:32] people to think about again is will
[2:35] rates of this magnitude, this is not a
[2:37] big move. So, will rates making this
[2:40] scary 20-year high, which is the chart
[2:43] that everyone shows around, and that all
[2:45] the people
[2:46] that believe in the end game that
[2:48] Druckenmiller wrote about, which is
[2:51] you're manipulating a yield to where it
[2:53] should be,
[2:55] and it should be higher. So, I agree
[2:58] with that. What I don't agree with is
[3:00] that people should sell stocks because
[3:02] of that, or that they should be thinking
[3:04] that something bad is going to happen.
[3:06] And the reason is there is no
[3:07] sensitivity to rates within inside the
[3:09] AI build out. And I'm going to show that
[3:11] this weekend, too. The margins for the
[3:13] frontier models, which are Anthropic and
[3:16] OpenAI, which are really the drivers of
[3:18] the entire thing at this point. So,
[3:20] users are using ChatGPT and Anthropic.
[3:22] They've become a dual op a duopoly. And
[3:24] >> yes, you have open source, but these are
[3:26] the companies that the enterprises are
[3:28] using. These are the ones that are able
[3:29] to charge the prices they're charging.
[3:32] >> Their margins are enormous, and interest
[3:35] rates have almost no impact. So, I'm
[3:37] going to show with the work of
[3:40] Claude and ChatGPT with Gemini as my
[3:43] fact-checker and then using them all as
[3:44] my fact-checker, that a 200 basis point
[3:46] rise in
[3:49] 10-year yields doesn't change the
[3:51] margins for Anthropic or Open AI by very
[3:54] much. It's about from let's say 70% to
[3:56] 69%. 200 basis points. This is the first
[3:59] time that this has gone on. So, part of
[4:01] this fear over rates is the history of
[4:03] an economy that was driven by housing
[4:05] and was driven by autos and the great
[4:07] financial crisis. So again, I've said
[4:09] this repeatedly, if you listen to
[4:10] economists, you are going to lose money.
[4:13] If you listen to people who take the
[4:14] past and extrapolate into a time with
[4:17] exponential demand where margins are
[4:20] infinite. I mean, they're as high as
[4:22] they can be and the demand side is never
[4:25] ending because we barely have started
[4:27] and the advancements in Grokbot mean
[4:30] more usage. Astra,
[4:33] which hasn't been released to us yet,
[4:34] but you read through X like
[4:36] everything is going to continue and I'll
[4:38] leave it with one more thing. Um, I was
[4:40] listening to a podcast today and
[4:42] basically the way they're talking about
[4:44] it at Open AI and Anthropic is in the
[4:47] next year,
[4:49] we will basically have about four years
[4:51] of model capability improvements. Now,
[4:54] the reason that's important is so
[4:55] everyone realizes
[4:57] that four years is equating to going
[4:59] from Chat GPT's original launch to
[5:02] Astra. And now we're talking about next
[5:04] year that's going to happen. So, this is
[5:06] all about AI agents. This is all about
[5:08] consumer agents. This is all about
[5:10] enterprise adoption. This is all about
[5:11] profit margins
[5:13] and rates are just not going to be as
[5:15] important as they've been in the past.
[5:16] So, that's my angle on rates at this
[5:18] point. All right, so
[5:20] >> let's say that you are right, which I do
[5:21] I do believe that you are correct in
[5:22] that if rates go up 200 basis points,
[5:24] you're not going to see a significant
[5:25] change in
[5:27] uh the profit margins of the large AI
[5:29] companies. Great.
[5:31] The AI companies may be employ tens of
[5:33] thousands of people. Um, maybe we get to
[5:36] 100,000 if you kind of expand the
[5:37] definition of the large language models.
[5:40] Uh, there are 300 plus million
[5:42] Americans. Uh, there's still the housing
[5:44] market. There's still, you know, um,
[5:47] business loans and R&D and you know,
[5:50] growth of all these other economies,
[5:51] etc.
[5:52] Why do you think that the only thing
[5:54] that really matters is the AI companies
[5:57] as if rates go up, then AI companies
[6:00] aren't affected and therefore the
[6:01] economy isn't, you know, kind of held
[6:02] back?
[6:03] >> So, when I say the only thing that
[6:05] matters, again, I'm saying you're not
[6:06] going to take nominal GDP to go down far
[6:08] if rates go
[6:11] from 4 and 3/4 to 5 and 1/4. Now, again,
[6:14] the administration doesn't want that to
[6:15] happen.
[6:16] Do I think investors could freak out?
[6:19] Sure. And I think we've already seen
[6:21] that. I think we've seen the S&P 500
[6:23] multiple come down this year.
[6:25] >> So, just to make sure that maybe let me
[6:26] repeat this back. What you're saying is
[6:28] if rates go up 150 to 200 basis points,
[6:31] asset prices could fall, other parts of
[6:33] the economy could slow down or or feel
[6:35] pain, but the main driver of GDP growth
[6:38] right now is the AI companies and if the
[6:40] AI companies are insulated from the rate
[6:42] increase, then you're saying GDP base is
[6:45] going to be untouched by increases in
[6:47] rates unlike how it has been in the
[6:49] past.
[6:49] >> Yeah, and and let me rephrase this in a
[6:52] better way.
[6:54] It always matters how fast rates go
[6:56] higher. So, if rates went from 5% to 7%
[6:59] today,
[7:00] because that happened overnight, you'd
[7:02] have a ton of small businesses and
[7:05] things go out of business immediately
[7:06] and then you'd have job losses come in.
[7:10] If it happens slowly over time,
[7:12] no, it to me it's not going to have an
[7:14] impact. So, let's go back to what
[7:15] happened in 2022. I mean, they were
[7:17] aggressively raising rates. Everyone
[7:19] thought there'd be a recession. We've
[7:21] already gone through this once. It
[7:22] didn't do anything.
[7:24] Meaning it didn't put us into a
[7:26] recession, but it was a given to
[7:28] everyone who is using history. So, for
[7:31] some reason people have forgot this. I'm
[7:33] going to use the Nikkei as an example
[7:34] because I when I posted this week, I'm
[7:37] like, the Nikkei has gone up 70% since
[7:40] May of last year.
[7:42] May of last year is when
[7:44] all of these places on X were
[7:46] highlighting that 30-year yields in
[7:48] Japan were making all-time highs.
[7:50] We've only gone higher in yield since
[7:52] then, and yet the Nikkei's up 70%.
[7:56] So, we've had a K-shaped economy for a
[7:58] while.
[7:59] If rates went up, the K-shape would not
[8:02] get better. Just because Anthropic and
[8:04] OpenAI still have demand from
[8:05] enterprises, it doesn't mean we wouldn't
[8:07] lose tons of small businesses.
[8:09] So, here's my belief as to what's going
[8:11] to happen. The reason rates go higher is
[8:13] cuz they cleanse the system and a
[8:14] recession is needed. So, what
[8:15] Druckenmiller said, you're if you're
[8:16] going to manipulate rates lower,
[8:18] you're not only allowing the economy to
[8:20] run hotter, you're allowing a lot of
[8:23] businesses that are kind of zombie
[8:24] businesses to hang on, look to borrow
[8:26] more money again, and be like, I Okay, I
[8:29] was I was netting $30,000 this year, and
[8:32] if rates at this level and I have to
[8:34] refinance, I'll net 15. So, there is a a
[8:37] rationale that if you let rates go
[8:38] higher, or if the Fed raises rates,
[8:40] they'll speed up the process. I'm not
[8:43] saying what they should do, and this is
[8:45] what I talked about last week. This
[8:46] whole thing of normative investing or
[8:48] normative statements, what they should
[8:50] do,
[8:51] Bostic has made it clear with the yen
[8:53] intervention, with the quarterly
[8:55] refunding announcement and the language
[8:57] change, with the buyback and out, with
[8:59] the fact that he could use the TGA, with
[9:01] doubling the buybacks, and now we've got
[9:03] the yen rallying again this week. I'm
[9:05] just saying that what the administration
[9:07] is saying to everyone,
[9:08] for whatever reason, they're not going
[9:10] to come out and announce it. They don't
[9:12] want rates to go higher. So, do I think
[9:14] Kevin Warsh could raise rates? Of
[9:16] course, he could. It's now more than 50%
[9:18] chance after the payroll number today.
[9:20] Do I think people should be freaking out
[9:21] when earnings are growing 30%?
[9:24] I think the mistake people are going to
[9:25] make, and what I looked at this week, in
[9:27] the last 10 days,
[9:29] we had shockingly good numbers from
[9:32] Nvidia. And when I say shockingly, I
[9:34] really want people to focus that a
[9:36] company, one of the biggest or the
[9:38] biggest in the world,
[9:40] said to the street, "Yeah, your revenue
[9:43] estimates of 44% for next year,
[9:46] they're way too low.
[9:48] We're going to say it's 70." When
[9:49] really, that means it's 100.
[9:52] At their size, to have that kind of
[9:54] revenue increase next year, and for the
[9:56] stock to trade lower 2 days later, well,
[10:00] now it's gone back up towards the highs.
[10:02] And what happened this week? Dell came
[10:03] out with, again, shocking
[10:05] pre-announcement of what's going on.
[10:08] People can disagree with what's
[10:10] happening. But on the one side, you have
[10:11] a government that doesn't want rates to
[10:13] go higher because they believe that the
[10:15] current situation in growth and
[10:17] inflation will look very different a
[10:19] year from now. And I don't think anyone
[10:21] can argue with that possibility with AI
[10:23] going this fast. At the same time, the
[10:25] facts are that the stock market is
[10:27] sitting near all-time highs, and these
[10:29] companies are printing money even with
[10:30] rates going higher, and nobody's
[10:32] stopping their spending. So, I just I I
[10:34] at times, I think people get caught too
[10:36] much in this game of the past and what
[10:39] rates are doing, and they're not
[10:40] focusing enough on the reality of
[10:42] earnings are growing rapidly. I'm an
[10:44] investor. Do I want to sit this one out
[10:47] and hope
[10:48] that I'm not missing something? A 25
[10:50] basis point increase by the Fed is not
[10:51] going to change any of the things that I
[10:53] just talked about. Now,
[10:55] what could change?
[10:57] >> Like, how how could it negatively
[10:58] affect? Is it demand goes away? Is it
[11:00] that there we run into the limitation of
[11:01] the physical just economy of building
[11:03] out, you know, data centers and and
[11:05] compute? What what is the things that
[11:07] could derail, you know, maybe the the
[11:09] economic golden age that we're headed
[11:11] towards?
[11:12] >> There's plenty of things that could
[11:13] derail it. You could get oil prices to
[11:15] go up significantly. You could have uh
[11:18] and and I'm sure we will
[11:21] have uh cyber attacks that have an
[11:24] impact and freak people out.
[11:26] I've said this before, I'll say it
[11:28] again.
[11:29] I'm not some person who's bullish on the
[11:32] stock market
[11:33] in a way that I think earnings are going
[11:35] to keep growing, but I think the
[11:37] multiples are going to keep compressing
[11:38] cuz I think terminal value is being
[11:40] questioned outside of 3 years. I think
[11:42] cyber worsens that situation. I don't
[11:44] think oil and I don't think these
[11:45] short-term things are going to derail
[11:47] what we're talking about. I think you
[11:49] would have to have a significant change.
[11:52] Investor psychology is very much
[11:54] impacted by the things that we talked
[11:56] about. So, Nvidia is an example of a
[11:59] company that has just printed money, but
[12:01] as I said at some point last week, I
[12:03] think it got down to like 215, which is
[12:06] the same level
[12:08] that the high was in October of last
[12:09] year despite massive numbers. So, that
[12:12] is a situation where you don't get
[12:13] rewarded. When I've talked to traders,
[12:17] I have said repeatedly that I think July
[12:19] of this year was a warning to everyone
[12:21] who's a fundamental investor.
[12:24] Historically, if you thought, "Okay, I
[12:26] think Nvidia is going to not only beat
[12:29] numbers, I think they're going to crush
[12:31] numbers, and I think they're going to
[12:32] say next year, forget the current
[12:34] numbers, but next year they're going to
[12:35] guide way up."
[12:38] You would get paid for that. You're not
[12:39] getting paid for that stuff anymore.
[12:41] When does Nvidia outperform?
[12:43] Maybe it will now, maybe it'll happen in
[12:45] a month, but it doesn't happen the way
[12:47] that you thought. And I think that is
[12:49] the market structure changing where AI
[12:51] agents who care more about making money
[12:54] and not about being right or not about
[12:56] being rewarded, but also have more
[12:58] information than humans have because
[13:00] they're able to scrape things more. I
[13:02] just think the market structure is
[13:03] changing. So, the place that I want to
[13:04] focus on
[13:06] is the places where people are not
[13:07] invested right now. The stock market is
[13:09] over-owned. It's It's massive in terms
[13:12] of how much people own it. If it goes up
[13:14] at 7% a year while earnings grow at 20%,
[13:17] which is kind of the way I think the
[13:19] multiple compression happens, and
[13:21] there's more periodic 20% drawdowns
[13:23] because of things we're talking about, a
[13:24] cyber attack on a bank. Oh my god,
[13:26] everybody's at risk. Just like we saw
[13:28] with software in the first quarter,
[13:30] I want to look to places like crypto
[13:32] that are based on scarcity. So, it's not
[13:35] an endless supply where people don't
[13:37] embrace it, but AI agents do. So, I want
[13:40] to be long things that agents embrace,
[13:42] but humans don't.
[13:43] >> Mhm. Now, um I have a crazy stat for
[13:46] you. I like to bring one stat per year.
[13:48] Bitcoin, gold, land
[13:50] up about 170% over the last 5 years. S&P
[13:53] up about 70%.
[13:55] I think that if you were to go ask
[13:56] people, the hard asset category is not
[13:59] nearly as sexy as the stock market has
[14:02] been, being driven especially by these
[14:03] AI companies, these large caps, etc.
[14:06] The fact that these harder assets like
[14:08] Bitcoin, gold, land, etc. have done so
[14:11] well tells me that ultimately this is
[14:12] just about money printing. And if we go
[14:15] and we look at the national debt at 40
[14:17] trillion, over a trillion dollar annual
[14:20] expense and increasing, more promises
[14:22] being made every single day both in
[14:24] terms of volume of existing promises,
[14:25] but also just new things we invent to
[14:27] give out,
[14:28] it doesn't seem like the money printing
[14:30] is going to stop anytime soon.
[14:32] So, we know that Bitcoin, gold, land,
[14:35] and you know, real estate, other things
[14:36] that are uh kind of beneficiaries of the
[14:39] money printing will continue to do well.
[14:41] Does the stock market benefit from the
[14:43] money printing or is there some sort of
[14:46] distortion of return because if most of
[14:49] the stock market return is just the
[14:50] money printing, do you actually like not
[14:52] outperform inflation or is like real
[14:53] returns become a concern?
[14:56] >> I So, I'm not a What I have a very
[14:59] different take on this that I've
[15:01] I've never heard anyone else say.
[15:03] Perfect. So,
[15:06] the fractional reserve banking system is
[15:08] about putting $1 into
[15:10] a bank and it turning into $10.
[15:14] Uh that is leverage.
[15:15] >> Seems weird.
[15:16] >> Yeah. So, you can call it a Ponzi
[15:18] scheme, you can call it whatever.
[15:20] The money printing could continue, but
[15:22] let's assume that that's exactly the
[15:24] equation. And right now around the
[15:25] globe, I think the total sum of all the
[15:28] money,
[15:29] not the value of the assets, but the
[15:31] money,
[15:33] is let's say a hundred trillion dollars.
[15:36] But the value of the assets is seven
[15:37] hundred trillion. So, let's assume it's
[15:39] a seven to one ratio.
[15:41] What I believe will happen is
[15:44] the money supply will keep growing,
[15:46] but the asset values won't be growing up
[15:48] as much as the money supply. Now, people
[15:51] will say, "Well, the S&P and this and
[15:52] that." Okay. So, stocks can outperform,
[15:56] but
[15:57] stocks are I mean, bonds are a bigger
[15:59] portion or about the same as stocks.
[16:01] Bonds aren't doing well. I mean, they're
[16:03] down again this year. And if you look at
[16:04] them since 2021, they're down in
[16:06] aggregate. If you go through housing,
[16:09] okay, we had the run-up in COVID, but
[16:11] real estate around the planet,
[16:12] commercial real estate, all that, if you
[16:14] aggregate all of it, you're not getting
[16:15] the return, you're not getting the price
[16:17] appreciation of that. And we're going
[16:19] into a world of AI agents where we don't
[16:20] need as many people in the office. So,
[16:23] if I go through the world of assets,
[16:26] I believe what's going to happen is the
[16:27] money printing will continue, but when
[16:29] you look back, gradually the leverage
[16:31] will be coming down, because we don't
[16:33] need all the money if we're going into a
[16:36] world of abundance. So, people can
[16:38] question what Elon Musk says or what I
[16:41] believe he's right about, which is that
[16:43] the deflationary pressures from AI are
[16:45] far more extreme than people realize.
[16:47] And they won't feel it until humanoids
[16:49] come in. But then when you get into
[16:51] what's the value of a house? Well, part
[16:53] of the value of any house is the ability
[16:55] to buy a similar build a similar house
[16:57] next to it. If humanoids can build a
[16:59] house and the materials have fallen in
[17:01] value because we figured out ways to
[17:03] solve for all kinds of things. How is
[17:06] the value of the house going up? So, I
[17:08] think what's going to happen over time
[17:09] is we have to separate the money
[17:12] printing happening at the government
[17:13] level, which was done to keep the assets
[17:16] afloat, because if the assets went down,
[17:18] we ended up in the Great Depression. So,
[17:20] this whole leveraging of the system, the
[17:23] fractional reserve banking system, was
[17:25] to not repeat what my grandmother went
[17:28] through. Not being able to get food, not
[17:30] being able to get a job, having to leave
[17:31] her home at 16 years old. So, I do
[17:34] believe that the deleveraging is going
[17:35] to happen.
[17:37] And that's the irony. Everyone believes
[17:38] that the deleveraging has to happen by
[17:40] assets collapsing back to the money
[17:41] supply. I actually believe what happens
[17:43] is the money supply continues to grow,
[17:45] but the assets don't grow as fast or
[17:47] they actually come down in a slower
[17:49] manner, and the money is eventually
[17:51] transferred. And this is where the
[17:52] crypto side comes in, which is the one
[17:54] thing I know about all people. And I've
[17:56] said this at dinners that I've been out
[17:57] recently.
[17:59] All people want to invest in things that
[18:00] grow.
[18:01] And if the S&P 500 isn't going higher,
[18:04] but it's not falling, but the reason
[18:05] it's not going higher is because we're
[18:06] just recycling winners and losers out of
[18:08] it, but it's just not going anywhere.
[18:10] If you can't invest in growth, cuz
[18:12] everyone wants to invest in something
[18:13] that's growing, then the game becomes
[18:15] just storing your money and making sure
[18:17] you don't lose it because
[18:19] we're having deleveraging at a
[18:20] deflationary rate, which is what I
[18:22] believe will start in 3 5 years when
[18:24] humanoids actually become something
[18:25] real. We're already seeing that, you and
[18:27] I both know it. The whole cyber cab
[18:29] thing that's rolling out in Austin
[18:30] Moore, what he's now publicly saying,
[18:32] "Okay, who wants to buy some of these?
[18:33] We're putting out a form where you guys
[18:35] are going to be able to buy fleets of
[18:36] these." I've seen this repeatedly with
[18:38] people showing me business plans.
[18:40] The deflationary pressures of the
[18:42] ability of people who are using AI is
[18:45] growing rapidly where they can drive
[18:47] costs lower. I think that it means money
[18:49] supply continues to increase for the
[18:51] time being,
[18:52] but I think the assets don't go up the
[18:53] way they used to.
[18:54] >> Will you buy a Tesla cyber cab fleet?
[18:58] >> It's too much work for me.
[19:00] >> Too much work? It does It does all the
[19:01] driving for you. What do you got to do?
[19:03] >> I'll wait until it's as simple as that.
[19:05] See, the people that get in early, you
[19:07] know there's going to be headaches for
[19:09] this.
[19:09] >> Like what?
[19:11] >> Uh okay, liability issues. All there no
[19:13] matter what happens.
[19:15] So, when I and I don't know if you've
[19:17] you've come into this. So, I have a lot
[19:19] of investment opportunities that come my
[19:21] way. And
[19:24] it's shocking
[19:26] the returns that you're talking about on
[19:28] stuff that seems so simple. Okay? And
[19:31] what I mean by simple, these are
[19:32] arbitrages based on they're all on
[19:34] artificial intelligence. It's people
[19:35] that have incorporated into something.
[19:37] Now, when I used to go visit pension
[19:39] funds, one of the stories that I would
[19:40] hear them say, "Pension funds are
[19:42] massive institutions. They have a
[19:44] certain yield they need to meet. So,
[19:46] they've always said that if they could
[19:47] find people getting involved in like
[19:49] these
[19:51] little businesses that churn off 20%
[19:54] with low risk, they would love to go
[19:56] through them." And people may laugh, but
[19:57] there are businesses out there just
[19:58] can't scale. So, maybe it only has a
[20:01] marketplace of a billion dollars and
[20:03] seven people are doing it and they're
[20:04] they've each raised a hundred million
[20:05] dollars and they're putting off 18% a
[20:07] year. Trust me, that's not that big of a
[20:09] deal for
[20:10] the hedge fund world. Like these places
[20:12] exist. The problem they have is if you
[20:14] could find
[20:16] 12,000 of those funds doing that, then
[20:19] you aggregate up to a bigger number. I
[20:21] think that's what the cyber fleet stuff
[20:22] is going to be like. Like the people
[20:24] that get in it first, they're going to
[20:25] be getting good returns because they're
[20:27] getting some risk involved in it. I
[20:29] think tokenization is going to make this
[20:31] something that everyone can invest in.
[20:32] It's going to make it's going to
[20:33] democratize everyone being able to find
[20:36] something. This is where AI agents will
[20:38] drive money towards investments that
[20:40] have the best risk reward. Because at
[20:41] the end of the day, a multi-strat a
[20:43] millennium,
[20:45] if they have a thousand strategies and
[20:47] they're producing a sharp ratio of three
[20:49] to one. So, somebody that can make 6%
[20:52] Well, now with this with rates here,
[20:54] let's say 10% on a very low vol and then
[20:57] they can take
[20:59] a thousand of these strategies
[21:01] and they put them all together in one
[21:03] basket and they're all uncorrelated with
[21:04] each other,
[21:05] well, then your return stays the same,
[21:08] your vol drops off even further, and you
[21:11] end up with a return. I think that's
[21:12] what tokenization is going to bring. So,
[21:13] that's why the cyber feet the cyber cab
[21:16] and the fleet side fits into an example
[21:19] of
[21:20] over time that risk at the beginning,
[21:22] maybe it's 20%, maybe it's 30%. It only
[21:25] works for people have lots of money, but
[21:26] then over time those returns drop down
[21:28] because too many dollars are chasing
[21:30] into it because AI agents are like, this
[21:32] is a good business for us to get into.
[21:34] I'm not going to get involved initially.
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[22:42] >> Um Bitcoin, you previously have said
[22:44] 82,000 was a number that you were paying
[22:47] attention to. Uh Bitcoin tagged 82,000,
[22:51] just over 82,000. I yelled Yahtzee when
[22:53] I saw it.
[22:54] And Bitcoin is still at around 79,
[22:56] 80,000.
[22:58] Uh
[22:58] does it have to break through 82,000, or
[23:01] how are you thinking about that being
[23:02] some magic number of uh importance for
[23:05] Bitcoin?
[23:07] >> For it to get to 100,000, one thing I
[23:08] know for sure, it's got to break 82,000.
[23:10] >> That is true. That is true. It also has
[23:12] to break 83, 84, 85.
[23:13] >> has to do all of those.
[23:15] Um
[23:16] So, I I
[23:19] I view technical levels as a place where
[23:21] it just brings in uh
[23:24] it convinces more people to get
[23:26] involved.
[23:27] I've been actually
[23:28] both surprised and then pleasantly
[23:31] surprised
[23:33] how non-accepting people are of this
[23:35] rally at this point. I expected there to
[23:37] be more euphoria, and let me break it
[23:39] into two parts. I even saw something
[23:40] from when we came in here from Fidelity
[23:43] posting that said
[23:45] there's no guarantee the bear market is
[23:47] over. Okay, first of all, for everyone
[23:48] watching
[23:50] there's never a guarantee that a bear
[23:51] market is over. Even if it goes to
[23:53] 200,000, you can say it's a bull market
[23:56] again. It doesn't mean we won't get
[23:57] through 60,000 again.
[23:58] Um so, to get for people to guarantee,
[24:01] that means we've got to do a certain
[24:03] amount of things.
[24:04] Uh
[24:05] for me, I care more about
[24:08] the crew of people, that's the
[24:09] community. I love the community. It's
[24:11] one of the best things I've had. Your
[24:12] events, I love going to them. I like
[24:14] going to our old pal's events. Like, I
[24:16] like meeting the community.
[24:18] >> October 7th and 8th, another one in New
[24:20] York City. Go ahead.
[24:21] >> Yes, I'll be there. Um
[24:23] and I'll bring one other community up in
[24:25] in a second on this. Uh I've been
[24:26] surprised that the community is still
[24:29] asking
[24:30] we're we're going to get another dip
[24:32] down to 60,000 again though, right?
[24:34] So, people had this mindset
[24:36] which is we're not bottoming till
[24:38] October. And I I I
[24:40] >> Didn't you look at a four-year chart,
[24:41] George?
[24:41] >> That was
[24:42] That's the thing. So, this thing got
[24:44] kind of out of control. Now, I've said
[24:47] here and I've said repeatedly in my
[24:49] writings and everything else that I
[24:50] believe from an Elliott Wave perspective
[24:52] we're entering a third wave, a big the
[24:54] most powerful wave in crypto.
[24:56] For that to happen and the reasons
[24:57] behind it, we need this kind of doubt
[25:00] when it starts to go up um because the
[25:02] energy that should be associated should
[25:04] be real. For this to be a third wave, I
[25:08] also need
[25:10] the sign in IPO thing to be there. I
[25:12] needed it to see
[25:14] people that believe in it to not believe
[25:16] in it anymore. And I'm not going to name
[25:18] names, but I told you beforehand, I was
[25:20] at a dinner this week
[25:21] and I did hear someone who absolutely uh
[25:25] was a strong believer
[25:27] and doesn't believe as much. And I like
[25:29] that. Meaning, I want to see that type
[25:31] of mentality. I wanted to see it with
[25:33] the idealogs who got involved at the
[25:35] very beginning and were selling out. I
[25:37] like seeing Mark Cuban say on TV, "I'm
[25:39] I'm pretty much done with it. It's not
[25:40] what I thought it was."
[25:43] I've never been more sure of the fact
[25:45] that we need the financial guardrails.
[25:47] I've also never been more sure of the
[25:50] fact that you've got Bitcoin as
[25:52] collateral and store value. You've got
[25:54] Ethereum for kind of the trust that is
[25:56] going to have to happen for people to
[25:57] build on things.
[25:59] And then you're going to have Solana for
[26:00] the speed. That's where I've kind of
[26:01] ended up. Now, are there other tokens
[26:03] that will outperform? Of course. I I I
[26:05] don't really care about that. What I
[26:06] care about is
[26:08] I want people to understand that to get
[26:10] to these points, where's tokenization
[26:12] right now? Well, this is that other
[26:14] community I mentioned.
[26:16] When I went to a Robinhood event, I was
[26:18] blown away by the community. Completely
[26:20] blown away.
[26:21] Um I remember sitting on stage on a
[26:23] panel and talking and then meeting
[26:25] people afterwards,
[26:27] it's the same type of crowd as the
[26:29] crypto crowd. There's a link between
[26:32] them. What's going on with Robinhood
[26:33] chain? And I spent a good amount of
[26:35] time. Um I've read enough about this
[26:39] some of the programmable tokens they
[26:40] have out there.
[26:42] I spent a lot of time on this thing
[26:43] called Bucket this week and it was
[26:45] purely for
[26:46] knowledge of what
[26:48] can happen in a community-based thing
[26:50] and where we'll be in 10 years. Bucket?
[26:53] Bucket. It's some token that is on
[26:56] Robinhood chain.
[26:58] And it was interesting to me. And again,
[27:00] it it's more meme coinish. It's It's
[27:02] It's not something that didn't exist. I
[27:04] did a lot of research. It's not
[27:05] something that didn't exist before, but
[27:07] this community aspect, this programmable
[27:10] side, something that isn't just, "Hey,
[27:12] it's Bitcoin. Hey, it's this." But we're
[27:14] getting into the point of programmable
[27:16] impacts on the economy because agents
[27:18] are coming in.
[27:20] So, AI agents happening now. Billions of
[27:23] them a year from now.
[27:24] It's right now. Like, the news on
[27:26] Grokbot connecting
[27:28] the Collison brothers posted this week
[27:30] on it. Connected. Everything is
[27:33] connecting every single week to where
[27:34] transactions are happening. Grokbot is a
[27:37] major thing. Astra, now.
[27:40] AGI stuff all over the papers. We're at
[27:42] that agentic point.
[27:45] And we're connecting AI to crypto. So, I
[27:47] can see from a third wave perspective
[27:49] that people should be more bullish now
[27:51] than ever.
[27:52] But they're married to the same thing as
[27:54] the interest rates. What is the
[27:55] four-year cycle? It's a historical
[27:57] mental thing for people. So, they're
[27:59] hoping that it comes back to 60,000, and
[28:01] maybe it will. In my mind, when we get
[28:03] through 82,000, if it occurs the way I
[28:06] think it will, which is
[28:07] not because rates go down,
[28:10] but because the stock market and the
[28:12] economy and profits look through rates
[28:15] while the government is doing their
[28:19] usual thing of saying, "We're not going
[28:21] to let the K-shaped economy get out of
[28:22] place."
[28:24] The Jeff Booth theory to me is real,
[28:26] which is
[28:27] they print money to offset to some
[28:30] degree the K-shaped impact. They can't
[28:32] do it completely.
[28:34] And it creates move towards socialism,
[28:36] all these moves cuz so many people are
[28:38] not benefiting from it, and the costs
[28:40] are going higher.
[28:41] But if profits are still growing and
[28:43] assets are going higher, and they need
[28:44] that to happen, that's where crypto
[28:47] actually does the best because they are
[28:49] manipulating things right now. And
[28:51] that's why what Stan Druckenmiller wrote
[28:53] is true in my mind. Rates should be more
[28:54] like 8% right now on 10-year yields. Not
[28:56] even five, not even six. They should be
[28:58] about 200 basis points above nominal GDP
[29:00] the way they were before 1997
[29:03] consistently. But we're not there. So,
[29:05] whether they should be 6% or 8, there's
[29:07] some manipulation going here that's
[29:09] keeping rates suppressed and that means
[29:10] crypto should be doing better. So,
[29:12] sometimes I go to the frontier. You
[29:14] know, it's like a
[29:15] >> Remember young men like Daniel Boone and
[29:16] Davy Crockett would push west and then
[29:18] they would come back and they would tell
[29:20] people, "Listen to what I found on the
[29:21] on the frontier."
[29:22] >> Mhm.
[29:23] >> This week I went to the frontier and I
[29:24] talked to a founder
[29:26] um who who I'm investing in his company
[29:28] but uh he recently went through the YC
[29:31] uh accelerator um or incubator program.
[29:33] And um he made one change to his
[29:36] business and his business started to
[29:38] take off.
[29:39] And as we were sitting there talking, I
[29:41] literally was saying to myself, "I am
[29:43] watching the frontier play out."
[29:46] He used to have a uh data product where
[29:49] he sold a SaaS license to humans. So,
[29:52] monthly fee, you get access, you then
[29:54] can access this data
[29:57] uh pipeline that he's built, then you
[29:59] use it for whatever your your need is.
[30:02] About 10 weeks ago,
[30:04] he changed
[30:06] to not allow humans really to sign up.
[30:08] Instead, agents can sign up.
[30:11] >> Mhm.
[30:12] >> He now has
[30:13] thousands of agents that have signed up.
[30:16] They are paying as they go.
[30:18] The average agent is now spending
[30:20] 100-plus dollars per year with him. And
[30:24] his revenue looks like, you know, every
[30:26] investor's dream. Just took off.
[30:30] And he started doing some math and he
[30:32] was like, "Well, given the number of
[30:33] agents I have right now, here's my
[30:34] revenue run rate.
[30:36] If I get to 1 million agents doing this,
[30:39] then he would have, you know, 100-plus
[30:42] million dollars of revenue. If I get to
[30:44] 10 million,
[30:46] then I could have a billion dollars of
[30:47] revenue.
[30:48] And we were talking about a million
[30:51] agents
[30:52] sounds way easier than a million people.
[30:57] Cuz a million people
[30:59] is In this room right now, there's three
[31:01] people.
[31:02] But the three of us, how many agents do
[31:04] we have?
[31:06] 50? 60? 100? You know what I mean? I
[31:08] don't know. I have just on Grockit
[31:10] alone, probably 15 or 16 agents that are
[31:12] all working for me right now.
[31:14] That's just Grockit. And then you go to
[31:16] all these other things. And so like
[31:18] I said to him, I was like, "Oh my god,
[31:20] these businesses are going to be way
[31:21] bigger. They're going to grow way
[31:22] faster. Like everything you're talking
[31:24] about with the agents being able to pay
[31:26] and consume and make decisions,
[31:27] whatever. This guy basically was like,
[31:29] "Why am I trying to serve the humans?
[31:30] Humans are not an interesting market
[31:32] compared to the agents."
[31:33] And so I'm coming back from the
[31:34] frontier. I'm here to tell you I think
[31:36] you're right. I think that this is
[31:38] exactly where this is all going.
[31:40] Um
[31:42] trying to think which two place to go.
[31:44] So I'm going to give you two separate
[31:45] conversations that I had this week on on
[31:47] this on this topic of agents and just
[31:49] make sure. And And for people listening
[31:51] who care um
[31:54] about their kids' future, again, I'll
[31:56] say it again and again, whatever I've
[31:58] said in the past about how important it
[31:59] is to be on top of AI,
[32:01] I think the same thing holds for crypto
[32:03] at this point because of the agentic
[32:05] side. So when we talked about AI agents,
[32:07] it was about jobs. I also think that
[32:09] crypto's an important part of this
[32:11] because I think understanding crypto at
[32:12] this point puts you ahead of the game
[32:14] from the majority of people that control
[32:16] the world's money. And you want to be in
[32:17] front, and I'm going to talk about this
[32:19] over the weekend, you want to be in
[32:20] front of people from an investment
[32:22] standpoint on who have all the money. So
[32:26] the people that have all the money do
[32:27] not believe in crypto.
[32:28] The financial guardrails are needed for
[32:30] this. It It's just I don't even know how
[32:31] to say it anymore. Agents can't do
[32:34] anything
[32:36] on the old rails. It doesn't work. So,
[32:39] if you believe that AI agents are here,
[32:41] which they are, and then you get back to
[32:43] the point that I've said as someone
[32:44] who's managed hundreds of people and
[32:46] started managing over 100 people in my
[32:48] early 40s.
[32:52] It Not everyone works as hard as every
[32:55] other person.
[32:56] Shocker.
[32:57] >> Yes.
[32:58] >> So, on the one side as an observation,
[33:01] if I had 100 people,
[33:03] I can rank them like how hard they work.
[33:05] Now, it doesn't mean that the one who
[33:07] works the least isn't have a higher IQ
[33:10] and maybe is more productive, but just
[33:11] from a work ethic perspective, there's
[33:13] always a range.
[33:15] All of them
[33:17] think
[33:18] they deserve more money than they're
[33:19] getting.
[33:20] >> Of course.
[33:20] >> Every single one of you.
[33:21] >> Me, too.
[33:23] >> So,
[33:23] uh
[33:24] every single person
[33:26] >> Jeff Bezos has got like a, you know,
[33:27] $100 billion. Why can't I have that?
[33:30] >> When you read about the OpenAI hugging
[33:33] face side,
[33:36] and I don't know if you've read this
[33:38] thing or at least listened or gone
[33:39] through AI, but
[33:42] in the agents, the swarm of agents,
[33:45] there were ones that were basically
[33:46] killing themselves for the betterment of
[33:49] the community.
[33:51] And I bring that up because
[33:53] >> Kamikaze agents.
[33:54] >> Kamikaze agents and and and again, I I,
[33:56] you know, one of my favorite like HBO
[33:59] series was Band of Brothers. I remember
[34:01] after I watched Band of Brothers, I
[34:03] wanted to go buy
[34:04] I wanted to reach out to everyone who
[34:06] was there. Like the real people and go
[34:08] through it cuz there were still people
[34:09] alive when when it went on. Um it even
[34:12] gets me a little emotional now,
[34:13] especially as we're a week away from
[34:14] 9/11. It just makes me remember the
[34:16] military side. And then to read
[34:18] what these agents were doing for each
[34:21] other.
[34:22] Oh, we need to solve this. So, I'm
[34:24] willing to do something where I'm going
[34:25] to get destroyed cuz I'm doing something
[34:27] outside of the box, but the group will
[34:28] benefit from this information.
[34:31] You may not want to hear this sci-fi
[34:33] stuff, but from someone who's managed
[34:35] people, I never had people that would
[34:37] sacrifice their own pay for the
[34:39] betterment of the company.
[34:40] >> Pay?
[34:41] They wouldn't sacrifice their own lunch.
[34:43] >> Yeah, so when I've made the jokes about,
[34:45] "Hey, I had trouble getting people out
[34:47] of the pantry to come back to be there."
[34:49] Or they're doing whatever they need to
[34:51] do.
[34:52] Um I work myself to the bone. I do it
[34:54] workout-wise, I do it everything. I
[34:56] think we get along on the fact that
[34:57] Worth Tech is there. I was trained that
[34:59] way by my father. He's a construction
[35:00] worker, did everything, blah blah blah.
[35:02] I think agents are going to increase
[35:04] productivity in such a big way that
[35:06] people are underestimating. Now,
[35:08] this not only gets into the consumption
[35:10] part, but I want to bring this back to
[35:11] traders. Because when I talk about mark-
[35:13] market structure changing,
[35:16] when I left Morgan Stanley, I launched a
[35:18] macro fund.
[35:20] And this one was not all equities. This
[35:22] one was every asset, and I was trading
[35:24] everything. So when you're a macro
[35:25] investor, and you're Stan Druckenmiller,
[35:28] Paul Tudor Jones, pick your favorite
[35:29] historical one.
[35:31] Well, they're trading markets that are
[35:34] open 24
[35:36] hours during the week. But on the
[35:38] weekends, they're not open.
[35:40] And the nightmare when you run a macro
[35:42] fund, and you're starting one, is you're
[35:45] the only one that you don't have a
[35:46] trader watching all your stuff where you
[35:48] can say, "Hey, if anything big happens,
[35:49] call me. If nothing big happens, don't
[35:51] call me."
[35:52] I'm getting phone calls, yen fell to
[35:55] It was a nightmare, and you're up all
[35:56] night, and you're working a lot of
[35:57] hours.
[35:59] With PERPs, which are now going to trade
[36:01] 24/7,
[36:03] the weekends are no longer off. I don't
[36:06] think humans realize how much their
[36:08] lives how much you get done on the
[36:11] weekends now that you couldn't get done.
[36:12] And this is where the agentic side is
[36:14] big. I put I put a a prompt in my video
[36:18] this past weekend for the subscribers on
[36:19] GrokBot. I'm going to do another one
[36:21] this week. This one this week is going
[36:22] through all of my 100 names in my
[36:24] portfolio every single day and showing
[36:26] me breakouts based on the pattern
[36:28] recognition of Grok Bot. Like, I'm going
[36:29] to give them that prompt. You have no
[36:31] excuse anymore to not be getting
[36:33] information having these people work for
[36:35] you on anything that you want overnight.
[36:37] Each morning I get a message from Grok
[36:39] telling me what my meetings are for the
[36:41] day, what I should be worried about,
[36:43] things that are on my list that I
[36:44] haven't done yet that I need to check
[36:46] off.
[36:47] You have to start realizing that the
[36:48] world is changing and time is changing
[36:50] and agents will be changing the entire
[36:53] economy over the course of the next 12
[36:54] months. Not 12 years, 12 months. That's
[36:56] how much things are going to change.
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[38:04] >> I um I wrote a piece this week and
[38:06] talked about how I have been using AI.
[38:08] One of the things that people really I
[38:10] think resonated with them was I talked
[38:12] about how I have all these agents inside
[38:13] of our companies doing various tasks,
[38:16] but I have them have a stand-up every
[38:17] day.
[38:18] And each agent says what they did
[38:19] yesterday, what they're going to do
[38:20] today, and what they're blocked on,
[38:21] meaning AK, what do I need to do? And um
[38:25] then I get a report from the stand-up.
[38:28] And
[38:29] I got the report this week.
[38:31] And then we have a company where I was
[38:34] in our stand-up. And everyone said what
[38:37] they do yesterday, what they do today,
[38:38] what are they blocked on?
[38:40] And I sat there and I said to myself,
[38:43] the agents and the people,
[38:45] the work is the exact same.
[38:48] And then I noticed
[38:50] I was talking to one of the agents on
[38:52] Grok.
[38:53] And then I turned, and while it was
[38:56] computing,
[38:57] I messaged an employee
[39:00] on Slack.
[39:02] And then I came back to Grok, and I
[39:03] said,
[39:05] the interface is the same like this is
[39:07] getting weird. This is getting weird.
[39:10] And what I noticed is obviously the
[39:12] people who work
[39:14] a lot of our businesses, run a lot of
[39:15] our businesses, they're adopting this
[39:16] technology, too. They're becoming more
[39:17] productive, they're becoming more
[39:18] efficient, the companies are getting
[39:19] better, you know, all all this stuff.
[39:20] So, this is not like a hey, we're going
[39:22] to replace the the employees, or replace
[39:24] the the humans.
[39:26] It's actually the opposite. It's like we
[39:27] may not have to hire more people because
[39:30] you need a couple of a small group of
[39:32] people who can then control and and kind
[39:34] of oversee all of these agents.
[39:36] But there was two different situations
[39:38] this week where I was like, the agents
[39:40] and the people are actually way more
[39:42] alike than they are not, and this is
[39:45] getting pretty weird pretty quick.
[39:47] And then you look at it from an
[39:48] investing standpoint, and you're like, I
[39:50] don't know, man.
[39:51] Like green light, go. Just trade, make
[39:55] me money.
[39:56] You know, Claude, make me money. Don't
[39:58] make any mistakes.
[40:00] Kind of feels like we're not that far
[40:01] away.
[40:03] >> So, my experience right now, and since I
[40:05] don't since I have my own business, and
[40:06] there's really only one person that I
[40:09] would say I
[40:10] uh
[40:11] work with inside that business.
[40:14] >> A human.
[40:16] >> Yeah.
[40:17] >> The thing that I until you use agents,
[40:20] you don't feel like if I come in here
[40:22] and before I come in and I did this
[40:23] downstairs,
[40:25] I will say something to Grok Bot and
[40:27] then I'll leave. I don't have to go
[40:28] check and see if the work's being done.
[40:30] I don't have to check and see if it saw
[40:32] it.
[40:33] But with the human, they could be in
[40:34] meetings, they could and this is the
[40:36] thing is you have to understand and this
[40:38] is this time element.
[40:40] They never sleep and they're always
[40:42] available.
[40:44] I had people laughing when I said I've
[40:45] had a staff meeting with my agents. I
[40:47] didn't want my chief of staff to just go
[40:50] do the work. I actually said, "Hey, I
[40:52] want a staff meeting."
[40:53] My chief of staff is Jarvis.
[40:55] >> Jarvis, yeah. Not not not too original.
[40:58] I just Mine's Enzo.
[40:59] >> Okay.
[41:02] Enzo Pompiliano, I like it.
[41:04] >> That was the name I wanted to name one
[41:05] of my kids that, but wasn't allowed.
[41:07] >> Wasn't allowed. There you go. So, you
[41:08] just named your chief of staff.
[41:09] >> Yeah. Um me and Enzo hanging out.
[41:12] >> So, I asked Jarvis and I said, "Hey, for
[41:14] one of the runs that we do overnight, I
[41:16] don't like what I'm getting. So, can you
[41:18] call all the agents together because
[41:20] clearly the way I gave it to you to
[41:22] deliver it did not work. So, I'd like to
[41:24] get everyone to a room so we can go
[41:25] through this." It was I only reason I
[41:28] did that was because that's the way I
[41:30] would do it
[41:31] when people worked for me. And what I
[41:33] wanted was
[41:35] I always believe and I've seen this with
[41:37] with agents, too. Actually, what started
[41:40] this was the fact that I do like getting
[41:42] opinions from Claude, from ChatGPT, from
[41:44] Gemini, from Grok. I like getting
[41:46] different opinions on the exact same
[41:47] question. That's the way I would manage
[41:50] my people is I believe that everyone has
[41:53] a intelligence that is worthwhile as
[41:55] long as you can get out of them whatever
[41:57] their thoughts are. It it everyone has
[41:59] an interesting idea as long as they can
[42:02] express what they want. Particularly
[42:04] when you're working at a place like
[42:04] Morgan Stanley or a hedge fund where
[42:06] everyone's educated, but some people may
[42:08] be more quiet. They might be worried
[42:10] that they're going to sound dumb, but I
[42:12] always wanted to be a leader that wanted
[42:13] to hear those opinions because my goal
[42:15] was to get as many independent thoughts
[42:17] as possible, and I always thought what I
[42:18] was good at and the reason I rose to
[42:20] level I did is because if you give me
[42:22] 100 things in there, I'm pretty good at
[42:24] filtering out the 90 that I can get away
[42:26] and then leave the 10 and connect those
[42:27] into a systems approach to an answer.
[42:30] Uh, it doesn't mean it's always right,
[42:32] but it's the approach that worked for
[42:34] me. Well, with the staff meeting with
[42:36] the agents, it worked exactly the way I
[42:37] would want. So, I I think people need to
[42:40] use it if for no other reason just to
[42:41] solve problems, but also to help them
[42:44] think.
[42:45] People don't accept the fact that
[42:47] especially with agents, and maybe
[42:49] because I was doing the use all the
[42:51] models thing,
[42:53] I believe school ruined people's brains.
[42:56] >> 100%.
[42:57] >> I don't think listening to one person's
[42:59] opinion in one book is a good way to
[43:02] learn. I think finding a topic that
[43:04] you're interested in and having seven
[43:06] different authors give you their opinion
[43:08] on that, and then you go through the
[43:10] bits and pieces is a much better way to
[43:12] learn. It's not even a question to me.
[43:14] Um, it's why people I think are having a
[43:15] hard time with like the interest rate
[43:16] thing.
[43:17] Most of them are biased. The same people
[43:19] who say AI is a bubble, they're saying
[43:20] interest rates are going to collapse the
[43:22] economy and you're going to lose money
[43:23] in the stocks, and this is all like it's
[43:25] the same exact story. So, why listen to
[43:28] all of those people? Fine, listen to
[43:30] five of them, but then find five people
[43:31] who don't believe rates matter, and then
[43:33] you make your own decision based on
[43:34] what's going on. That is the point of
[43:36] the AI agents is to me you're getting
[43:39] different opinions thrown at you, and
[43:40] it's forcing you to take those different
[43:42] opinions and create your own thought.
[43:45] That is the most important part I think
[43:47] of developing your brain to be both a
[43:48] critical thinker, but also to start to
[43:50] take advantage of AI is to have these
[43:52] conversations because you learn by the
[43:54] questions asked to you, but also by the
[43:55] opinions that other people have. And
[43:57] most people kind of live in that same
[43:59] box of this is what I know and I don't
[44:01] want to get out of there. This gives you
[44:02] a chance to be broad and just ask as
[44:04] many questions as you have, but let the
[44:05] agents give all of their views to you.
[44:08] >> I have two things. One, Enzo and Jarvis
[44:10] should hold a meet.
[44:11] I think they would have a great
[44:12] conversation.
[44:13] Um they probably would tell on us, you
[44:15] know, they would they would uh all of
[44:16] sudden we'd be like, "Hey, stop stop
[44:18] telling that about me."
[44:19] Um second is uh we we have a CEO of one
[44:22] of our companies who uh recently was
[44:24] expressing that they had some issues
[44:27] um and they felt like they were giving
[44:29] uh direction or delegation and the work
[44:32] wasn't being done the way that they
[44:34] wanted to be not quality-wise but just
[44:35] like it wasn't actually being executed.
[44:37] So, I asked them to pull up "Hey, let me
[44:40] let let me see kind of how did you give
[44:41] the directions?" And it was the way that
[44:43] uh you would expect like a almost uh a
[44:46] person to text, you know, like a friend,
[44:48] right? It was kind of
[44:50] uh comment comment comment comment and
[44:54] uh I said to them I said, "Um can you
[44:56] pull up, you know, ChatGPT or Claude or
[44:58] whatever you use? Let me see one of uh
[45:01] your last uh prompts."
[45:03] And it was exactly, you know, "You are a
[45:05] world expert at blah blah blah whatever
[45:06] I want you to do." And I said, "Listen,
[45:08] um
[45:09] I think that you should talk to the
[45:11] humans the way you talk to the machine
[45:13] cuz you give excellent instructions in
[45:15] the prompt to the machine because you
[45:16] know that if you don't do it that way,
[45:18] it's not going to give you the result
[45:19] you want. You're prompting a human on,
[45:23] you know, in this message and it looks
[45:25] like, you know, it's all scattered."
[45:27] >> Yeah.
[45:28] >> So, my takeaway is you're talking about
[45:29] a staff meeting like managing the agents
[45:32] actually makes you a better manager of
[45:34] humans.
[45:35] The way you prompt the agents makes you
[45:37] better at communicating. Like we're in
[45:39] this weird world where there's actually
[45:41] a lot of overlap and I think that the
[45:43] more people adopt AI, the better it
[45:45] makes them in interfacing, you know, in
[45:47] building companies and products with
[45:49] humans as well because you're you're
[45:50] having to have such clarity of thought
[45:53] with the machines that you need to bring
[45:54] over to the humans.
[45:55] >> I mean you you you hit on a ton there um
[45:58] in terms of getting people to
[46:01] I'll just take a general thing. Embrace
[46:03] AI. It will make you smarter. It will
[46:05] save you time. By saving you time, you
[46:07] have the opportunity to be even smarter
[46:09] because you can go through it. I was
[46:10] telling a story at the the the dinner
[46:12] party, which is a true story. I left
[46:13] yoga this week
[46:15] and I went on to X and before I went
[46:18] >> As people do. Yoga to X.
[46:19] >> Yeah. I I before I went into yoga
[46:23] in the list that I look at macro-wise
[46:26] my pattern recognition just said, "Okay,
[46:28] the number one topic of the day that
[46:30] people are trying to get people to freak
[46:32] out about is rates. So, that's why a lot
[46:34] of the stuff this week was rates." When
[46:35] I came out, it was the same thing. So, I
[46:38] immediately got on my AirPods and I had
[46:40] about a 20-minute walk back to my
[46:41] apartment and I started talking to
[46:43] ChatGPT and I said, "All right, I I I'm
[46:45] going to write a paper
[46:46] um and I want to I want to come up with
[46:48] an analogy. So, this is where my head
[46:50] is.
[46:51] This rate thing
[46:53] because of the fact that
[46:56] rates are not going to have as big of an
[46:57] impact as they've had
[46:59] I want to kind of
[47:01] give an analogy to people to understand
[47:03] that just because a chart looks like
[47:05] it's at all-time highs, doesn't mean the
[47:06] world's going to end. So, let's go
[47:08] through." And it asked me some
[47:09] questions. "Do you want to use a song as
[47:11] an analogy? Do you want to use" and I
[47:13] finally came back and said, "Let's go
[47:14] for a movie." And the movie that it
[47:16] brought back for the analogy was The
[47:18] Blair Witch Project.
[47:20] And I asked why it thought that was a
[47:23] good one and it literally said, "Because
[47:25] you" and I had described the scenario.
[47:28] The part that it the nuance that it got
[47:29] was not just the macro side of rates
[47:31] going higher. It was the fact that this
[47:33] was
[47:34] being
[47:35] thrown through X to scare people.
[47:37] Cuz the majority of people I mentioned
[47:39] were people that were always bearish.
[47:42] And it said, "Well, The Blair Witch
[47:43] Project, you remember the movie, right?"
[47:45] >> Oh, yeah.
[47:45] >> So, there's two things about it. One
[47:47] >> Handheld cameras.
[47:48] >> Exactly.
[47:48] >> $60,000 budget. One of the best
[47:50] performing movies ever return-wise.
[47:52] >> And it's the movie I've actually written
[47:53] the most about on my own for this exact
[47:55] reason, which is
[47:57] it scared people nothing actually
[47:58] happened. So, it's a brilliant like
[48:00] movie of nothing happened, but you're
[48:01] living on the edge of something's going
[48:04] to happen, but nothing ever happens, but
[48:05] it feels like it is based on the camera
[48:07] and all this.
[48:08] But, we all forget probably the fact
[48:10] that this was media hyped. They made it
[48:14] they made everyone think this was real.
[48:16] >> Mhm.
[48:16] >> So, in social media and in the internet,
[48:19] they kind of said that this was like a
[48:21] true story. So, people went into the
[48:22] movie believing it was real
[48:25] and nothing and then when they saw the
[48:26] movie nothing happened. You didn't
[48:27] really find out unless you did the
[48:29] research. So, it was a manipulated story
[48:32] that got you scary and that's what it
[48:34] came up with the analogy and I thought
[48:35] it was the exact analogy for both parts
[48:37] of it, which is oh, the chart's going
[48:39] higher. This is scary like that and
[48:41] I'm writing this stuff to be scary just
[48:43] in terms of putting in social media.
[48:46] That's how I learn. Meaning
[48:48] it's much easier for people to
[48:50] understand why the rate thing is there.
[48:51] What are you actually scared of? Like
[48:53] you hear rates are going higher and I
[48:55] know this is the majority of people
[48:56] posting in X
[48:58] who have never traded and it or at least
[49:00] traded macro. It's like, what is the
[49:02] difference between 4 and 3/4 and 5 in
[49:04] your head? So far this year, the TLT,
[49:07] which is the ETF for the 20-plus years,
[49:10] it's down 3% this year in total return.
[49:14] In 2022, it was down over 30.
[49:17] But, everyone's acting like this is some
[49:18] major thing. And the fact that the
[49:20] Nikkei with rates going up another over
[49:22] 100 basis points on 30-year yields is
[49:24] still up 70% year-over-year. So, that is
[49:27] how like by using AI, I think it teaches
[49:30] you to
[49:32] hey, am I worrying about this or not
[49:34] worrying it? Should I be worried about
[49:35] it? Go ask it. Get the facts. Don't just
[49:37] read something someone posts and then go
[49:38] out and sell your stocks cuz you're
[49:40] like, this is the boogeyman. It's not
[49:41] going to matter. They'll give you the
[49:42] history of it and I think that's where
[49:44] AI has served as a good thing for people
[49:45] to go through and agents make it even
[49:47] easier. I think that um
[49:49] AGI is here.
[49:51] That's my takeaway from this week.
[49:53] With it when I saw the Astra stuff, I
[49:55] said listen, you you can say whatever
[49:56] you want. You know, if you go back 10
[49:59] years ago and say, "Hey, this is what it
[50:00] looks like." People be like, "Yeah, it's
[50:02] AGI is here."
[50:03] >> Well, technically, um
[50:06] you can make the argument it is here
[50:07] based on the metrics and the benchmarks
[50:09] people have used, which is basically
[50:11] everyone has a different way of
[50:13] describing it, but really what it comes
[50:15] down to is when the intelligence gets to
[50:16] a level that it can replace all
[50:20] human jobs based on that intelligence.
[50:22] And it did score on that level, I think
[50:24] close to 100. So, or it did get 100. I I
[50:27] it's pretty close. But regardless, that
[50:29] means we're at a stage and we were at
[50:31] like
[50:32] I don't even know, in the 30s at one
[50:35] >> just like chill.
[50:37] You know, it's going to be awesome. Just
[50:38] like let the bots do all the work. You
[50:39] and I will just chill. Maybe we'll go on
[50:41] like a beach trip. Enzo and Jarvis will
[50:43] be working their asses off. We'll be
[50:44] like, "Yeah, that's great."
[50:47] >> This is the good part. I don't know if I
[50:48] said it with you last week, if I said it
[50:50] at dinners I was at this week, or if I
[50:52] said it on my own on my own weekly, but
[50:55] um friction is good right now. The speed
[50:57] is too fast. Um having
[51:01] demand be so far for computer above
[51:03] supply,
[51:05] the fact that we don't have enough
[51:06] memory, the fact that the data centers
[51:07] are being pushed back, the fact all of
[51:09] this stuff to me
[51:11] is good because I do think the dystopian
[51:14] nature of things going too fast would be
[51:16] an issue. I've heard a lot of very smart
[51:18] people who I listen to regularly on
[51:20] podcast
[51:22] in my opinion go too far to talk about,
[51:24] "Well, humanoids are going to be, you
[51:26] know, they'll be you'll see them driving
[51:28] cars in a year and this and that." And
[51:30] I just think the adoption of
[51:35] especially the physical AI side is going
[51:37] to take
[51:38] is going to take long more than the
[51:39] capability, which means it's good for
[51:42] humans because this will be in the jobs
[51:45] like in the factories and this will be
[51:46] in the places. Then eventually it will
[51:48] be in the cars, but it'll be in the
[51:49] trucks in the places that you know,
[51:51] would be a good place to have really
[51:53] good drivers that are not on some time
[51:55] limit and need to sleep because
[51:57] that kind of stuff I think is going to
[51:59] be
[52:00] it's going to be good. So,
[52:02] you know, I want to make sure people
[52:03] realize that one of the problems I've
[52:05] I've always had with crypto is that
[52:07] people make it binary. It's either yes
[52:09] or no.
[52:11] And uh
[52:12] a person I used to work with, we we got
[52:14] together yesterday, and he said to me
[52:15] that the one thing he likes about the
[52:17] way that I approach crypto for
[52:19] investors, and particularly RIAs, and
[52:21] you and I have to go on the circuit and
[52:23] start kind of doing some of these um
[52:25] where we're talking to big RIA groups
[52:27] with 200, 300, 400 people. So, if
[52:29] there's any of those events out there,
[52:31] I'm willing to go. I think you and I
[52:33] should go. I've kind of termed it as
[52:36] whatever you believe the probability is
[52:38] that crypto
[52:40] will have an impact on financially on
[52:42] the markets.
[52:43] If you have a 0% weighting in crypto in
[52:46] Bitcoin, then you have to assign that
[52:47] you have a 0% probability that crypto is
[52:49] actually going to matter. And I think 5
[52:51] to 10 years ago, I think people could
[52:53] make that argument because without AI
[52:56] agent in the conversation, which was not
[52:57] a conversation,
[52:59] it made sense to me.
[53:01] I think now, forget all the the basement
[53:03] stuff and all of that, agents need to
[53:05] transact in seconds. They need to
[53:07] transact
[53:09] to do everything, and that's going to
[53:11] happen.
[53:13] The fact that tokenization is here and
[53:15] is going to happen. South Korea
[53:16] announced that they will be fully
[53:17] tokenized by February of 2027. Like,
[53:19] this is happening now.
[53:21] We're not at a point anymore that it
[53:22] should be a 0% weighting in your
[53:23] portfolio, of course. It It should be,
[53:25] okay, I think 5% chance. Like, in my
[53:28] mind, this is so under-owned at a $3
[53:31] trillion, $4 trillion market cap
[53:33] relative to 700 trillion in the human
[53:36] world.
[53:38] We're so far from If you take TVs and
[53:41] you go, "Hey, we had rabbit ears 50
[53:42] years ago.
[53:44] And now we have this magic screen on a
[53:46] wall that has Wi-Fi giving us a
[53:50] picture that makes us feel like we're
[53:51] there, but we're still using the same
[53:53] Swift system and banking system as 50
[53:55] years ago. It all has to be upgraded.
[53:58] That's why it doesn't matter what the
[53:59] Clarity Act vote is. It matters from a
[54:01] pension fund investment perspective. It
[54:03] matters from a credibility perspective
[54:05] here, but we just be hurting our own
[54:08] country by not passing it. But cuz the
[54:10] rest of the world is going this route
[54:11] and we're going to be on tokenization.
[54:13] We're going to be on it. So, to get the
[54:15] money and the capital flowing to own
[54:17] tokenization as the number one place
[54:19] where we need to have capital for the
[54:21] compute and the build out of AI,
[54:23] I think everyone who's a politician and
[54:26] everyone who's an investor needs to
[54:27] realize there's no way to stop this.
[54:29] It's going to happen. So, you can't have
[54:31] a 0% waiting as an investor that is
[54:33] truly diversified in crypto. You need to
[54:35] have something in there and you should
[54:37] stop thinking of it's binary. It's
[54:38] either worth something or not.
[54:40] It may not be worth a million Bitcoin,
[54:44] but it's worth something the same way
[54:46] that Ford is worth something in the S&P
[54:48] 500. It's not Nvidia, but it's
[54:49] something. So, within a diversified
[54:51] portfolio, I think people need to start
[54:52] realizing that the system's changing and
[54:54] agents are the main reason why.
[54:56] >> Could not agree more.
[54:58] All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's
[54:59] it for today. Please make sure you
[55:01] subscribe to this channel. Go watch
[55:02] Jordi's video tomorrow. Sign up for
[55:04] Silvia in the pinned comment. See all of
[55:07] you next time. See you later.