El nexo entre IA, cripto y macro: por qué Bitcoin importa a los inversores

[0:00] So, obviously I stayed another week in
[0:01] Maine. Uh, it's hard to get me out of
[0:03] Maine. It's my, uh, happy place. Um,
[0:08] so I've been doing this now for two
[0:10] years. Um, I've been doing a weekly
[0:13] podcast with Anthony Pompiano since
[0:16] April of last year. Uh the weekly that I
[0:20] do on the YouTube has been 90%
[0:23] preparing people for how AI would
[0:26] disrupt macro, how it would disrupt the
[0:29] market, multiple compression, all kinds
[0:31] of things with the ultimate um endgame
[0:35] for me and endgame is an important word
[0:38] because it's going to be highlighted in
[0:40] here. Beware of the endgame bias.
[0:42] uh the endgame which is that AI would
[0:45] lead to a massive boom in
[0:47] entrepreneurship. It would disrupt all
[0:49] public companies and that disruption
[0:52] would begin much sooner than people
[0:54] realize really beginning when AI
[0:56] adoption started which obviously
[0:58] happened this year with AI agents. Uh on
[1:02] an weekly we talk probably about 50%
[1:07] about crypto when you average them all
[1:08] together. when there's nothing going on
[1:10] in Bitcoin, we don't talk as much about
[1:12] it, but it's really uh more crypto.
[1:16] This video is the most important one
[1:18] that I've done because the ultimate
[1:20] endgame for me was a point where Bitcoin
[1:22] starts to show up in its third wave, in
[1:26] its adoption phase, in the same way that
[1:28] AI did a year ago. And I've said
[1:31] repeatedly that I believe crypto will be
[1:33] viewed by everyone on the investment
[1:35] side a year from now in the same way
[1:37] that the infrastructure trade is today.
[1:41] The difference is Bitcoin does not get
[1:43] disrupted by AI. It is the purest AI
[1:46] trade. So if I am right and you guys
[1:49] watch me for some reason, whether it's
[1:51] to provoke thought, uh it's not for my
[1:53] looks, it's not for my ability to speak,
[1:56] it is because I must bring something to
[1:59] the table that gives you guys something
[2:00] to include in your own process. I'm not
[2:02] here to tell you what's going to work. I
[2:04] believe Bitcoin will go higher. I
[2:07] believe crypto will go higher because as
[2:09] Mark Andre said,
[2:13] why Bitcoin matters. If you haven't read
[2:16] the paper and you've been watching this
[2:19] video, it is now time to make sure that
[2:21] you watch it. You read it this weekend
[2:23] and you go see why Mark Andre said that
[2:25] the Bitcoin white paper was one of the
[2:27] most important advancements
[2:30] in the computer and where we would be 20
[2:34] years from when he wrote that. And that
[2:35] was 2014. We are now at 2026. I'm sick
[2:39] and I have always been sick of listening
[2:41] to people debate Bitcoin. It's going to
[2:43] hear. is going to hear if I heard
[2:44] another person doubt that it's going to
[2:46] go higher. Our job is not to g to guess.
[2:49] Our job is to try and put together a
[2:51] framework that we believe and when the
[2:52] tape starts to tell you that something
[2:54] is important is going on, that's when
[2:56] you want to start to pay attention. I
[2:58] mentioned two weeks ago on Anony's uh
[3:01] podcast and on mine that I believe that
[3:03] the end of July would be looked back on
[3:06] as the most important inflection point
[3:08] for all of us making money. situational
[3:11] awareness bottom with VS up at extreme
[3:13] levels. The market structure has clearly
[3:15] changed in the stock market.
[3:17] Tokenization is coming and people are
[3:19] going to have to look at the facts on
[3:22] the equation. I'm going to go through a
[3:23] lot on Bitcoin today, but a lot of it is
[3:25] combining and it's number four that
[3:27] matters for all of you. Bitcoin is a
[3:30] hedge to the time risk that all of you
[3:32] are going through. If you're an
[3:34] economist trying to tell me about the
[3:36] jobs market and the inflation data and
[3:39] all of the garbage that is associated
[3:41] with looking back and thinking that your
[3:43] job is still relevant compared to where
[3:44] it was five years ago, six years ago,
[3:47] seven year, everything has changed. The
[3:49] academic fed is no longer relevant.
[3:51] Whether it's hawkish or dovish is no
[3:53] longer relevant. It might be relevant
[3:54] for a week, but it hasn't been relevant
[3:56] for a long time. And this video is going
[3:58] to try to take you through the journey
[3:59] of all the noise that you listen to
[4:00] every week and how if you're trying to
[4:03] make money and you're coming in to watch
[4:05] me from this point on until Bitcoin goes
[4:08] back under the 200 day moving average.
[4:10] That'll be the point that I bail out and
[4:12] say, "Okay, I'm not talking about it
[4:13] anymore." Until that day comes, start to
[4:16] focus on the AI macro nexus that is
[4:18] coming. Let's start
[4:22] now.
[4:27] All right.
[4:29] So, I just want to make sure you guys
[4:30] see this. This is the thumbnail. I
[4:32] posted this on X.
[4:34] For the last year, we have watched AI
[4:37] speed up competition. I didn't care
[4:40] about the impact that AI would
[4:41] eventually have on getting us to Bitcoin
[4:43] until AI adap AI adoption was happening
[4:47] at the enterprise level which is clearly
[4:49] happening because you can see it with
[4:50] the fastest ARR growth for a company in
[4:52] the history of the world which is
[4:54] enthropic
[4:56] and using AI agents and once that
[4:58] happens and you speed up competition you
[5:01] speed up the ability of taking any idea
[5:03] and rebuilding it with no people that's
[5:05] what AI agents allow you to do
[5:08] innovation cycles compress in time.
[5:11] Everything compresses in time. I said
[5:13] last week, AI agents can can work. Even
[5:17] with the pantry flirting and the eating
[5:19] and the lunch and the travel and all
[5:21] that, the best case scenario, 70 days is
[5:25] equal to a year.
[5:27] My gut from managing people for a long
[5:30] time and dealing with all the waste and
[5:31] the travel time and the drinking and all
[5:34] the things that go on is that it's more
[5:36] like 10 to one. So when people tell you
[5:39] year-over-year this is growing this
[5:41] much, it doesn't mean anything because
[5:43] that's human time. What ends up
[5:45] happening is terminal value starts to
[5:48] decay. And that's what this is meant to
[5:50] show. And that's what we've seen with
[5:52] the software names. At some point when
[5:54] the competition is speeding so fast, you
[5:56] can't value a company three years out
[5:58] anymore because the speed of change is
[6:00] going so fast that it eventually
[6:03] disrupts every single company. And that
[6:05] does mean including physical companies.
[6:07] silver companies, uh, oil companies, but
[6:10] they're the last in line, not the first
[6:12] in line. The first is Adobe. The first
[6:14] is the companies you've seen it go on.
[6:16] But eventually, the entrepreneurs get
[6:18] big enough, they get the ecosystem grows
[6:20] fast enough. That's what Stripe is all
[6:22] about. They are the ecosystem of
[6:25] entrepreneurs causing the destruction.
[6:27] They're just too small right now, but
[6:29] they're growing at exponential pace. And
[6:30] within three years, they will have
[6:32] disrupted all business's growth. And
[6:35] that's what you have to remember. the
[6:36] value of stocks on discounted cash flows
[6:39] in the future. It's all about growth and
[6:41] if we have no certainty of growth, how
[6:43] do you hedge that time risk? How do you
[6:45] hedge that growth? This thing is not
[6:48] disrupted by it. That is why it is the
[6:50] purest AI trade. So for the last time as
[6:53] a as AI speeds up and we start to get
[6:55] into the abundance world where deflation
[6:57] is the game, we're seeing that we're
[7:00] talking about anthropic being subject to
[7:02] deflation competition. the fastest
[7:05] growing company that has gone in a
[7:08] parabolic move. We're now worried that
[7:10] they are slowing.
[7:13] This thing's breaking out today.
[7:14] Remember that as you're going through
[7:16] and thinking about things in your
[7:17] portfolio, you don't have to agree with
[7:19] me, but if you have a zero zero%
[7:21] position in this, you are saying there
[7:23] is 0% chance of this because everything
[7:26] in your portfolio will be disrupted.
[7:29] Which is why I'm doing these
[7:30] conversation the videos. It's also why
[7:31] I'm launching the crypto part of this
[7:33] too, which will go on the subscriber
[7:35] site. So,
[7:37] I want to do this because I am getting
[7:39] subscribers going, "What about this
[7:41] name? Are you still in this name? Is
[7:42] this name going higher?" Guys, I am not
[7:44] a stock picker. I am a thematic
[7:46] portfolio guy that writes spotlight
[7:48] pieces to highlight to you for yourself
[7:51] how they fit into the AI trade and then
[7:52] for you to go. I hate the fact that I
[7:54] have to put disclaimers on anything, but
[7:57] the reason you have disclaimers is
[7:58] because I'm here to give you guys
[8:00] education, not investment advice. If
[8:02] you're in a name and you haven't traded
[8:03] out of it, I trade all the time. I'm not
[8:06] going to come on here and say I've done
[8:07] this or done this based on on everything
[8:09] that I'm doing. I told you I reduced my
[8:12] positions in uh cryp or in the AI trade
[8:17] back in May and June and I moved the
[8:20] money into silver and Bitcoin. Those are
[8:23] my largest positions. Now, I still have
[8:26] Marll. It's a decent sized position. I
[8:28] moved into Eli Lily, which made new
[8:31] all-time highs this week. I've told you
[8:33] where I've been moving things. The
[8:35] application side is where I'm more
[8:36] interested, but I still have
[8:38] infrastructure names, but these names
[8:39] I'm sitting in, and I think a year from
[8:41] now, they'll be up more than the S&P,
[8:43] but I do not think they're going to be
[8:44] five baggers, six baggers, seven
[8:45] baggers. Do I think silver is going to
[8:47] outperform all those? Yes. Do I think
[8:48] Bitcoin's going to outperform it? Yes.
[8:50] Do I think Ethereum is? Yes. Do I think
[8:52] micro strategy is yes. My goal is to
[8:54] educate you and empower you both to use
[8:57] AI and to get ready for the crypto merge
[8:59] which is coming. If you don't think
[9:02] about it and if you don't know enough
[9:03] about it, that's what I'm here for is to
[9:06] teach you guys. If you want to know more
[9:08] about crypto, if you're an RAIA, a
[9:11] financial advisor, and you've ignored it
[9:13] and your clients have asked for it, you
[9:15] can't ignore it anymore. Next year will
[9:17] be a huge year relative to the market.
[9:20] And I will go through the reasons why,
[9:21] but the adoption phase of crypto is
[9:23] going to go through the same adoption
[9:25] phase we've we've seen with the
[9:27] infrastructure. The difference is
[9:29] there's no more growth assets left. You
[9:31] cannot believe a public company will be
[9:34] worth anything in three years relative
[9:36] to what it is today. They need to grow
[9:39] and growth is being disrupted by
[9:41] competition. Crypto is a tiny odd lot.
[9:45] The total size of the crypto market is
[9:48] around $3 trillion. The Russell 2000 is
[9:51] around three trillion. This is going to
[9:54] grow massively faster. And the size of
[9:56] it is going to grow because it is the
[9:58] guard rails for what's about to happen.
[10:00] The endgame bias. The Fed will raise
[10:03] rates. Long-term rates will set off a
[10:04] collapse due to debt and deficit. Oil is
[10:06] going to 200. Inflation is too high. AI
[10:08] is a bubble. These are all the stories
[10:12] that I hear every single week. It's just
[10:14] pick your one. An economist said they're
[10:16] going to raise three time. I can go
[10:18] through this over and over again. These
[10:21] are noise. These are endgame bias by
[10:24] everyone. Everyone will tell you this
[10:26] can't go on. I get emails after emails
[10:29] saying this will end badly. Okay, I'm
[10:31] just going to buy some stuff, but this
[10:32] is going to end badly. It is going to
[10:34] end badly. But in my bad, it's not
[10:36] because of this. It's because of
[10:38] deflationary competition which causes
[10:41] abundance and changes the structure of
[10:43] the market. So if you for any reason
[10:47] listen to me every week and at least
[10:49] think that my view has some backing
[10:52] behind it based on the facts and the
[10:53] data and the amount of reading and
[10:55] things that I've done on the topics of
[10:56] AI. I use it all day long. You're going
[10:58] to get a Grotbot
[11:01] uh uh example today uh on how AI agents
[11:04] have now been democratized. So, if you
[11:06] can get that from an economist who's 59,
[11:09] if you can get that from an investment
[11:10] uh strategist who's 59, great. But the
[11:13] only way you can talk about these things
[11:14] is to have some historical domain
[11:16] experience. And if you have domain
[11:17] experience and you don't use AI, how can
[11:19] you possibly listen to anyone who does
[11:22] this? These were all wrong. They've all
[11:24] been wrong. Could they be right
[11:25] eventually? I I guess. But in the
[11:29] meantime, you're losing money. So, I
[11:30] think it's very important to stop with
[11:32] the endgame bias. People know what the
[11:35] endgame is. They say the same thing all
[11:37] the time. And the same people said oil
[11:39] is going to 200 or the same people
[11:40] saying inflation's too high. They're the
[11:42] same people say the Fed will raise
[11:44] rates. It's all the same story. And I
[11:46] know that because I have X to go prove
[11:48] it. That's all they do. And they write
[11:50] and they get paid for it. I'm not paid
[11:52] to be bullish. I'm actually the most
[11:54] bearish person I know on public
[11:56] equities. It's just not today. It's in
[11:58] the future. And maybe it never happens.
[12:01] I'll change my views based on the basian
[12:03] framework that goes on. Here's tenure
[12:05] rates. I lived in Brazil for a long
[12:07] time.
[12:08] The currency was pegged the entire time
[12:11] I was there until they had to move the
[12:14] currency with the devaluation and then
[12:15] Morgan Stanley brought me back to take
[12:17] over the S&P book. This is a pegged
[12:21] currency. This is tenure rates in the
[12:23] US. How many people are giving you that
[12:26] this is going to blow off to the upside?
[12:27] Have you seen the chart? This is a a
[12:29] wedge. This is just it. Yeah, that's all
[12:32] great except you're fighting the
[12:34] government. They don't want it to go
[12:35] higher. So, is it really the best bet to
[12:38] sit there and say they're going to let
[12:39] this go to 9 10%. Or is it a better bet
[12:42] to say we've watched this game before,
[12:44] they'll just keep doing this, but
[12:46] because Japan is having to do something
[12:48] in terms of raising rates, but their
[12:49] rates are lower than ours in terms of
[12:52] short rates. So, the yen and the BOJ
[12:55] situation is September will be a big
[12:57] event. The question is, was the yen
[13:00] signal what I thought it was? And as of
[13:03] right now, it absolutely was because the
[13:05] Treasury announces increased sizes of
[13:07] nominal end liquidity support, the most
[13:09] important news of the week, and helped
[13:12] get Bitcoin moving.
[13:14] Then, of course, he couldn't stop there.
[13:16] Oh, could be more than four billion.
[13:18] We've seen this before. This is the old
[13:20] bazooka trick. This is the old I want to
[13:22] stop the market from targeting this
[13:24] there. They believe, as he said on CNBC,
[13:27] these are mispriced. This is not the
[13:28] right price for yields.
[13:31] He's going against GDP that's going
[13:33] higher. He's going against inflation
[13:34] that's higher than what the Fed has
[13:36] said. All of these things are true. You
[13:40] got PMIs in terms of the Philly Fed and
[13:42] the Empire new orders, which are
[13:44] basically at the same level that equates
[13:45] to a 60 PMI, which I've talked about for
[13:48] a year. the growth is good,
[13:52] but they're saying they don't want
[13:53] yields to go higher because we have a
[13:55] debt and deficit problem. And so history
[13:58] suggests not to dismiss Bessant's move
[14:00] on the yen. Basically going against
[14:02] intervention is a very very dangerous
[14:05] game particularly when it's coordinated
[14:07] against other countries. He's doing
[14:09] unconventional moves to try and help.
[14:12] He's leaning on the Fed to help with
[14:14] FEMA. Again, when you see multiple
[14:18] stories going on, you have to be
[14:21] careful. Besson is seen as a political
[14:23] actor. He's focused on midterm. This is
[14:25] all noise, guys. This is just stuff
[14:27] going on. The academic Fed versus the
[14:29] inflation target of the future. I wrote
[14:30] this on a August 18th of 2025, almost a
[14:34] year ago to the day. And within there,
[14:37] this is before Worsh was chosen. I
[14:40] talked about how Scott Besson was
[14:42] interviewed on the AllIn podcast
[14:44] following the AI action plan. If you
[14:46] haven't listened to it, go listen to it
[14:48] again because remember Scott Bessant was
[14:51] heavily involved with choosing Kevin
[14:53] Worsh. They went through this and if
[14:55] this administration is one thing, if
[14:57] they bring someone in, they are going
[14:59] through a vetting process to figure out
[15:01] if they're going to agree with the way
[15:02] they view the world, which is very
[15:04] different than the way academics view
[15:06] the world. Besson in a recent interview
[15:08] with Nikkei. So this is he stressed that
[15:11] the Fed's role is now expanding far
[15:13] beyond traditional interest rate
[15:15] management and because of this the next
[15:16] Fed chair must be someone capable of
[15:19] thoroughly examining the institution
[15:21] itself not just inheriting old
[15:23] frameworks. Are the economists that
[15:25] you're paying to listen to still using
[15:27] old frameworks that they were taught in
[15:29] college
[15:31] because this administration wants them
[15:33] to examine it and change them. uh task
[15:36] forces. Besson argued the Fed's
[15:38] leadership should be proactive and
[15:40] forward-looking, able to anticipate how
[15:42] structural changes such as AIdriven
[15:44] productivity, fiscal dynamics, meaning
[15:47] the debt and deficit situation and
[15:49] geopolitical pressures
[15:53] [sighs]
[15:53] will reshape the economy. The next Fed
[15:56] share in short must be an adaptive
[15:58] leader prepared to rethink the Fed's
[15:59] mission in light of the rapid innovation
[16:02] and fiscal realities. That's it in a
[16:04] nutshell. AI needs to raise money. It
[16:09] needs the back end of the curve for the
[16:10] next year to two years until the free
[16:13] cash flow for the people borrowing money
[16:15] gets to a level where they can just use
[16:17] free cash flow from their ROIC, assuming
[16:20] again they get there. Regardless, they
[16:22] don't want rates going higher and they
[16:24] understand this is happening because for
[16:26] the first time in a long time, we have a
[16:27] lot of supply coming to the market.
[16:29] Broadcom's coming to the market with a
[16:30] massive deal. So,
[16:34] as you read this and go through it and
[16:36] pause it here, you will see that what
[16:39] you're witnessing and what's going on
[16:40] with Kevin Worsh, who is connected to
[16:43] Scott Bessant. The belief that people
[16:46] have was that there'd be no Fed
[16:48] independence. But somehow or another,
[16:50] people actually believe what Scott
[16:52] Besson wants is lower rates, but Worsh
[16:56] is just going to do whatever he wants.
[16:59] So, we questions Fed independence, but
[17:01] on the same side, people are willing to
[17:03] say, "Well, no, no, no. He's going to
[17:04] raise rates." Even though I I I just I
[17:07] I'm a handicapper. That just doesn't
[17:09] seem like knowing this administration
[17:11] something that is going to be real. So,
[17:14] you can sit there and say that, but if
[17:16] the people that are saying that we're
[17:18] saying three rate hikes and they refuse
[17:19] to give up on the three rate hikes, even
[17:21] though we've had softer inflation data,
[17:23] we've had softer labor data, and we've
[17:25] had the yen signal. How are you being
[17:28] honest as a handicapper? There's new
[17:29] news that came in over the last two
[17:31] months and you haven't adjusted your
[17:32] view from three rate hikes. That is the
[17:35] main problem with listening to anyone
[17:37] right now on the Fed who's sitting there
[17:39] still saying rate hikes. Are they saying
[17:42] it because they believe it or are saying
[17:43] they because it want it? Are they saying
[17:45] because Iran is still going on and oil
[17:47] I'll show you the oil thing in a little
[17:48] while. Listen to the interview and just
[17:51] go through it. Then on July 6th, I wrote
[17:53] the art of unlearning the Fed. And this
[17:56] again, the inspiration came from that
[17:59] same podcast. Besson's belief that
[18:00] AIdriven productivity shifts demand. A
[18:03] forward-looking Fed has real merit. AI
[18:05] is progressing at an unprecedented pace.
[18:07] And in a world defined by exponential
[18:08] innovation, relying on backward-looking
[18:10] models is too slow.
[18:14] If you believe, as I do, that the
[18:16] deflationary pressures from AI are about
[18:19] to accelerate and you believe that you
[18:22] should be, I don't know, shrinking the
[18:24] amount of meetings,
[18:26] you're actually trying to slow down
[18:29] time, you're trying to make sure that
[18:31] you're not moving too fast at this pace,
[18:35] going and doing everything he's doing,
[18:38] the task forces, the data, finding new
[18:40] data, finding new ways to look at
[18:41] inflation, whether or not it's the right
[18:43] thing to do, It's definitely something
[18:45] that has to be done and he's doing it.
[18:47] So all these task forces are to adjust
[18:50] monetary policy the way it's been done.
[18:52] So using the old playbook is not there
[18:55] to build data centers and the rest would
[18:57] affect demand demand and could increase
[18:59] demand by a few tents. This is Kevin
[19:01] Worsh speaking at his press conference
[19:03] on the supply side of the economy to
[19:06] increase the potential output of the
[19:07] economy that could be considerably
[19:09] bigger. So his point on this is that
[19:12] short term the capital spending story
[19:15] might inflate inflation a little bit but
[19:18] the deflationary pressures that will
[19:19] come from the supply side of the economy
[19:21] changing in the future are far bigger if
[19:24] that's what he believes and he said in
[19:26] front of Congress at his testimony why
[19:28] should you doubt him at this point now
[19:30] he doesn't make the final decision on
[19:31] rates but we all know at this point
[19:34] unless there's an egregious way meaning
[19:37] unless the inflation data is surprising
[19:38] on the high side. At the end of the day,
[19:41] there's no way I can see him raising
[19:44] rates unless he's outvoted. I just don't
[19:48] see how it's going to happen. And again,
[19:49] I think it's a bad bet with the data
[19:51] that we've seen. So again, I'm going to
[19:52] go back to how important that week was.
[19:54] The yen signal. Go read the paper if you
[19:58] haven't read it yet. It's the
[19:59] summertime. I know people have been kind
[20:02] of going through the motions. It was a
[20:03] brutal July for a lot of people in the
[20:05] AI trade. August so far has been a very
[20:08] good month despite what the noise you're
[20:10] hearing. Almost everything is up 3% um
[20:13] for the month. We have a little back and
[20:15] forth. We go all over the place, but
[20:17] it's there. Um this is the part that I
[20:20] put in. Over the next 12 months, I
[20:21] expect agents to move rapidly from tools
[20:23] that assist humans to systems that
[20:24] increasingly act on their behalf. I'll
[20:26] show Grockbot today. That means more
[20:29] productivity, but it also means more
[20:30] pressure on employment, wages, tax
[20:31] receipts, and the political response
[20:33] required to manage the transition. The
[20:35] economic system will simultaneously be
[20:36] asked to finance unprecedented
[20:38] investment in comput infrastructure
[20:39] while adapting to a technology capable
[20:41] of reducing the need for human labor
[20:43] across an expanding number of
[20:44] industries. That is a fact. That's not a
[20:47] guess. All of that is true. All of it.
[20:52] We're seeing it. It's just a fact. The
[20:55] economic system is being changed because
[20:56] of AI agents and they're accelerating at
[20:59] an an insane pace right now seen through
[21:03] the ARR. This only started in January.
[21:06] We haven't really started the usage. We
[21:07] are in the bring it on, show me how we
[21:09] can do it side. That is just starting.
[21:12] And that is the reason why crypto is
[21:13] starting to become more important
[21:15] because as I go through here, the end
[21:18] intervention was not the crisis. Gold is
[21:20] not yet singling a crisis. AI agents
[21:22] have not yet transformed the economy.
[21:24] But the pressure from all three is
[21:25] beginning to show up at the same time.
[21:27] That is the nexus point. And I believe
[21:29] we will look back on the last week of
[21:30] July as one of the moments when the
[21:32] merging of the creditbacked fiat world
[21:34] and the AI fueled digital economy
[21:36] stopped being theoretical and began
[21:38] began showing up in markets. That
[21:40] collision course between the
[21:42] creditbacked fiat system and the crypto
[21:45] world is what's happening now. Besson's
[21:47] being called the most interventionist
[21:50] treasury chief in decades.
[21:53] Trump at the crypto event still with his
[21:56] guy there said Fed interest rate policy
[21:58] he's bemoning it says US should be
[22:00] paying much less if you listen to it he
[22:03] thinks our rates should be down he's
[22:05] publicly saying that is he applying
[22:07] pressure to Bessant or to Worsh no he's
[22:10] doing a great job
[22:12] but he also renewed his attacks on the
[22:15] Federal Reserve so he might be saying
[22:17] things about Worsh but don't think this
[22:19] isn't his goal is to make sure there's
[22:21] no rate hikes
[22:22] So, let's go back. Bitcoin Segue, a
[22:27] peer-to-peer electronic cash system. We
[22:29] propose a solution to the double
[22:31] spending problem using peer-to-peer
[22:33] network. If you haven't read the Bitcoin
[22:35] white paper, now that I've said to you
[22:38] why Bitcoin matters by Mark Andre in
[22:40] January of 2014, must read for alpha in
[22:45] the future. Now, you've got the Bitcoin
[22:47] white paper on your homework. In
[22:49] Bitcoin, you cannot spend the same
[22:50] monetary unit twice. The fiscal system,
[22:53] you can spend today's income and
[22:54] simultaneously borrow against tomorrow's
[22:56] income. Old system completely breaking
[22:59] down. New system being born. Satoshi
[23:03] built Bitcoin to eliminate double
[23:05] spending of money. This was the white
[23:07] paper. This was the solution. The
[23:10] sovereign debt system permits something
[23:12] Bitcoin does not. The repeated spending
[23:14] of future time. There's the time thing
[23:16] again.
[23:18] It's all going to change from this point
[23:20] going forward.
[23:22] This is why when you go through the AI
[23:25] macro nexus, you know, sheet and for
[23:28] those of you who got it last week on the
[23:29] RAIA side and have signed up for me to
[23:32] do presentations, the next constraint is
[23:34] financial crypto rails for AI agents.
[23:36] This learning curve will be massive
[23:39] compared to these. So, you better be
[23:42] ready and you better be on top of the
[23:44] fact because when your clients ask you,
[23:46] "Hey, what should we be doing in
[23:47] crypto?" And you say, "We don't do it.
[23:50] We don't have an answer. Let me get
[23:51] someone on the phone who's credible in
[23:53] the space and a guy with a hoodie shows
[23:55] up." Or you're lucky enough to find
[23:57] someone in the crypto space who can talk
[23:59] about their vertical. The problem is,
[24:01] how do you connect it back to what's
[24:02] happening in the world and get a story
[24:04] or a narrative that people can embrace?
[24:06] Who are your clients? You're going to
[24:09] have to find that
[24:10] And that's the reason why I was doing
[24:12] this because I know this is coming at
[24:15] the White House this week.
[24:17] This event went on. So the same week
[24:20] that Scott Bessant is doing all of these
[24:24] interventions in the last two weeks, the
[24:26] quarterly refunding change in the
[24:29] language, the yen intervention, the
[24:32] buyback situation, publicly saying he
[24:34] wants rates to be lower.
[24:37] President Trump had all of the crypto
[24:39] gangs there to basically say to the
[24:42] Democrats.
[24:43] If you don't sign the Clarity Act, we're
[24:46] going forward anyway because this is
[24:48] important to America. You can have it on
[24:50] your voting block if you don't want to
[24:52] have it. We're going forward. Both
[24:54] applying pressure, but also saying it
[24:56] doesn't really matter. This is like AI,
[24:58] guys.
[25:00] So the clarity act's been keeping a ball
[25:03] below the water and this week it just
[25:05] blew out of the water partly because of
[25:07] the change from Bessant and partly
[25:10] because of what's happening at the White
[25:11] House. So there are catalysts that
[25:14] happen that everyone was looking for.
[25:16] Now Trump argued that crypto stable
[25:18] coins prediction markets and blockchain
[25:19] based finance tools are for maintaining
[25:21] US financial dominance, keeping
[25:23] innovation on shore and extending the
[25:24] dollar's global role. Critical thing to
[25:26] say, very important. They view this and
[25:29] this is part of it. This is not let me
[25:31] go buy Bitcoin because I want to
[25:32] speculate on I want to make money. This
[25:33] is the belief that just like AI having
[25:37] the dollarbased system which the US has
[25:40] had creates strength for them, they
[25:43] can't allow China to have all of the
[25:48] crypto side or it be outside the US. So
[25:51] he connected crypto policy to AI
[25:53] competition,
[25:55] shifted to macro policy, saying interest
[25:57] rates should fall when the economy is
[25:59] strong. And then you can go through
[26:01] these things from Brian Armstrong, from
[26:03] Vlad, from Robin Hood, and from chain
[26:06] link. All of this stuff is about the
[26:08] global framework going on. So with all
[26:11] that said, the one thing I've said, and
[26:13] the reason I've been quiet on Bitcoin,
[26:15] if you notice my demeanor change, it's
[26:17] because of this. as Jesse Livermore
[26:19] taught us all in reminiscence of a stock
[26:21] operator. For those of you who are new
[26:22] to investing and you want a good book to
[26:24] read, this is a great book, especially
[26:26] if you're a trader. If you haven't read
[26:27] it, um I highly I highly recommend
[26:31] reading it. The tape does not concern
[26:33] itself with the why and wherefor. Don't
[26:36] argue with the tape. The object of
[26:37] reading the tape is to ascertain how and
[26:39] when to trade. This one here and all of
[26:43] them, I don't want to fight the tape.
[26:44] So, when we're in a bare market, meaning
[26:46] we're below the 200 day moving average,
[26:48] I can buy some stuff. I can go through
[26:49] it, but I'm not going to talk to it to
[26:50] you guys about it other than just say, I
[26:52] still believe it's going to bottom here
[26:54] and it's going to go higher, but it may
[26:55] go down before it goes up. But once it
[26:57] gets above the 200 day moving average,
[26:59] then I get more interested. Great
[27:01] traders do not force the market to fit
[27:03] the story. They let the tape update the
[27:05] story. That's why all of the things that
[27:07] I said had been going on for a while.
[27:09] And like I showed two weeks ago from
[27:13] HOL,
[27:14] all of these bad events were going on
[27:17] and Bitcoin was still trading well while
[27:20] the tech bubble was unwinding.
[27:23] I thought Bitcoin was a tech
[27:26] beta trade. So somehow or another,
[27:28] Bitcoin was hanging in there when bad
[27:31] news was there.
[27:33] And so here's what we get. That looks
[27:35] like trying to hold a ball underwater.
[27:37] And eventually the pressure came out.
[27:39] Three massive candles in a row breaking
[27:42] the 200 day moving average in Bitcoin.
[27:46] Ethereum, same thing. You can't see it
[27:49] here, but also the 200 day moving
[27:51] average just turned up in Ethereum.
[27:54] Very powerful signal.
[27:57] I've talked to you that I believe
[27:59] Ethereum should outperform. I have a
[28:01] good amount of Ethereum. I didn't have
[28:02] any Ethereum until really recently. Um,
[28:05] and the reason is because I believe that
[28:08] this is going to be based on the
[28:09] ecosystem. I believe Beta is going to
[28:11] lead in crypto and Bitcoin will not be
[28:13] the leader. If I'm right about what's
[28:16] happening, the other name should lead
[28:17] and Ethereum should lead because this is
[28:19] about the ecosystem being invested in.
[28:22] And I'll talk more about that.
[28:25] If you read my ex post, you saw this
[28:27] chart.
[28:29] Sigma moves. Guys, first of all, for
[28:31] those of you who reach out and say you
[28:33] show a lot of charts where you don't
[28:34] explain what's going on, I will explain
[28:36] this one. So, in the way to look at
[28:40] things in both price and time, if Micron
[28:44] right now has a uh a 20% rise, meaning
[28:48] it goes from 900 to,00 you don't think
[28:51] twice about it because it's been doing
[28:53] that regularly. It trades at 100
[28:55] volatility which means a normal daily
[28:57] move in that thing is 6%. So if it's 6%
[29:01] you get a 20% move. Okay, view it is
[29:04] this way. That would be a three standard
[29:06] deviation move on a daily basis. What
[29:08] this is is this is the weekly moves. So
[29:12] for a weekly move I'm taking the six-day
[29:14] volatility of Bitcoin. Before we moved
[29:16] this week, last Friday it was 23. So on
[29:19] a daily basis 23 V is about 1 and a.5%.
[29:23] The reason I can calculate that in my
[29:24] head is because you take whatever that V
[29:27] is, it's a daily annualized V. And if
[29:30] you want to convert it into something
[29:32] that you can do in percentage terms, you
[29:34] take the square root of 252 trade days,
[29:38] that's about 16. You divide the V 23 by
[29:41] 16, you get one and a half%. Now, if you
[29:44] want to do weekly, you're taking that
[29:46] same number, which is 23, and you're
[29:47] dividing it by the square root
[29:51] of 52 weeks. So, that's seven. So, let's
[29:54] say 20, let's let's take it 23 vol
[29:57] divided by 7. That's about 3% a week is
[29:59] a one standard deviation move. We moved
[30:02] by 22% this week. So, you get a seven
[30:04] sigma move. So, that's how you normalize
[30:06] things on movements to decide how big
[30:09] and powerful of of a move it was based
[30:11] on how it's been trading for the last 60
[30:13] days. I chose 60 days because that is
[30:17] two months worth of data. Um, and I say
[30:19] two months because Bitcoin trades 60
[30:23] seven days a week. Um, here were the
[30:25] last two
[30:27] highs, the only other two in the last
[30:30] decade on a weekly basis that were
[30:32] greater than five. One was April 7 7th,
[30:35] 2019,
[30:37] January 15, 2023. You can see where the
[30:41] V was. So, not too far off. This is the
[30:44] way Bitcoin trades. It goes through a
[30:46] bare market. All the sellers are gone.
[30:48] And as we all know, for many of you who
[30:50] just hold like me, I've never sold a
[30:54] Bitcoin in my lifetime. You are left
[30:57] with the fact that it eventually gets
[30:59] quiet. The 60-day V eventually drops
[31:02] down before the move. So this time it
[31:05] was 23. In 19 it was 29. In 23 it was
[31:07] 27. This time it was 23. And then this
[31:11] was the weekly move. So a very similar
[31:13] time. Now let's go see if those points
[31:15] were important.
[31:17] Huh. Here was the one where it started.
[31:19] Now this is a daily chart. That was the
[31:22] week. We got these two big candles. And
[31:24] guess what? We crossed above the 200 day
[31:26] moving average. And we doubled very
[31:29] quickly in the next two months in that.
[31:31] That was back in the 19 one.
[31:35] Oh, same exact thing. We break above the
[31:37] 200 day moving average back in 2022.
[31:40] And this one a little bit more grumpy on
[31:44] the way up, but still worked its way to
[31:47] being up close to doubling very quickly.
[31:49] And then took a little bit more time,
[31:52] went through another phase. Um, the
[31:54] point being on this for you guys,
[31:59] the pattern's resuming and I hate to say
[32:02] it as I said in the post, but it's like
[32:03] the four-year cycle. I mentioned last
[32:05] week that or the week after here that
[32:09] the end signal was here. We got this
[32:11] boost that was a multi-igma move in
[32:13] gold. Very similar. It was a 7% move. I
[32:16] showed it was one of the largest moves
[32:17] in the last 15 years. It's continued
[32:19] through and is back above the 200 day
[32:21] moving average. So, we are getting some
[32:22] sort of a debasement trade. We are
[32:24] getting whatever you want to call it.
[32:25] Silver was up big, too. I made a lot of
[32:27] money on my silver stuff this week. Uh,
[32:29] for those of you asking on the silver, I
[32:31] am long SLV and I am long SIL. SIL is
[32:35] much bigger. I like the miners because I
[32:38] believe this stuff the miners are just
[32:40] trading way too cheap relative to where
[32:42] the metal is. Regardless of that, I got
[32:45] both of them. So, let's go read one of
[32:47] the posts I put in about this move in
[32:49] Bitcoin. Sentiment is low. Jack Besson
[32:52] is quoting Satoshi in Expose. The
[32:57] Treasury Secretary is quoting Satoshi
[33:00] and this is recent tech momentum V is at
[33:04] 45ear highs. I'm going to take you guys
[33:06] through the fact that if you're running
[33:08] a portfolio and you've got a 60-day
[33:09] volume on one instrument which is 23 and
[33:11] you have a 60-day V on something like
[33:12] Micron which is 120. Um,
[33:17] I don't think people have fully embraced
[33:19] how important this is for Bitcoin.
[33:23] People invest in beta.
[33:26] This stuff is going to be stuck in the
[33:28] mud. I will go through V, but I just
[33:32] want to say this to you. V is like going
[33:35] into the ICU at the hospital. When your
[33:38] vitals are that severe and you end up in
[33:40] the ICU, when you come out of the
[33:42] hospital,
[33:44] think of situational awareness day, that
[33:45] tech momentum came out of the hospital,
[33:48] you're not going to be back to normal
[33:50] for a long time. It's going to take a
[33:53] long time for this V to come down, if it
[33:55] ever does. And as I've said, market
[33:57] structure has changed. The reason this
[33:58] stuff trades like that is because of the
[34:01] terminal value destruction. You cannot
[34:03] value companies three three years from
[34:05] now. This is not just a Micron story.
[34:08] I'll show you IBM later. You can go look
[34:10] at Adobe. You can go All of these
[34:12] companies are going through the same
[34:14] thing on the on the uh on the option
[34:18] side. You start hearing people talk
[34:19] about dispersion and it continues to be
[34:22] just all over the map in terms of all of
[34:24] these names are moving at high volume,
[34:26] but the index is not moving. That's
[34:27] exactly what I would expect when S&P
[34:30] earnings are going at 30, 40, 50%. And
[34:33] the names are going all over the map.
[34:36] That will continue because we are never
[34:38] going back to a 8% earnings cycle and
[34:41] GDP of three. That's never happening
[34:44] again in an AI world. So adapt to the
[34:46] new market structure and just realize
[34:48] Bitcoin benefits because it's a growth
[34:49] asset. And once it starts going and
[34:51] people go, "This is beta." This
[34:53] community is going to push this baby. So
[34:56] get involved because it's coming. AI
[34:58] agents are about to change global
[34:59] economy measurements and the new Fed
[35:01] chair has five task forces to
[35:02] restructure the way monetary policy is
[35:04] done, leaving academic economist lost
[35:05] while the Treasury Secretary is doing
[35:07] unconventional blah blah blah. As
[35:08] Michael Sailor says, you don't find
[35:10] Bitcoin, Bitcoin finds you. We are at
[35:12] the Bitcoin finds you moment. If you're
[35:14] trying to make money for investors and
[35:16] you need to make more than what the S&P
[35:17] can give when the S&P is giving you 20
[35:19] 25% a year, it's not going to help you
[35:21] to go invest in stocks that are going up
[35:23] 25% a year. It's not going to help you
[35:24] invest in stocks like Nvidia which go up
[35:27] 30% every year, but people hate the
[35:30] stock because it doesn't go up 50 or 60
[35:33] or it doesn't go up ever relative to the
[35:35] S&P which I'll highlight as well, but it
[35:37] still outperforms.
[35:39] Going to be a good video this week.
[35:40] Hopefully you guys are enjoying it so
[35:41] far. We're still early in this. All
[35:43] right, Satoshi,
[35:46] America will lead or America won't. It's
[35:48] not more complicated than that. I
[35:49] believe Satoshi once said it best. If
[35:51] you don't believe me or you don't get
[35:52] it, I don't have time to try and
[35:54] convince you. Sorry. The importance of
[35:56] passing the Clarity Act.
[35:58] I'm just telling you guys, read the
[36:02] news. Do not have an endgame bias. If
[36:05] people aren't talking about this, they
[36:07] don't know it. They're not involved.
[36:10] This is a Bitcoin presidency and all of
[36:14] the people at every level are pro
[36:16] Bitcoin. Kevin Walsh on Bitcoin. This is
[36:20] from January.
[36:22] It could tell the world that it could
[36:24] tell the world that things need to be
[36:26] fixed. Yes, the old system is broken.
[36:28] Bitcoin does not make me nervous. The
[36:30] underlying technology is that white
[36:31] paper. Go read it. If you don't believe
[36:34] me, go listen to Kevin. He's the Fed
[36:36] chair. It's just software. It's just the
[36:38] newest, coolest, coolest software that
[36:40] will provide us the opportunity to do
[36:42] things we have never done before. Okay,
[36:45] Bitcoin. I think of Bitcoin as a lot of
[36:47] things, but certainly with every passing
[36:49] day, getting new life as an alternative
[36:51] currency. Ask your economist if they
[36:53] believe in Bitcoin. Ask them if they use
[36:56] AI and then get rid of every one of them
[36:59] that says no to both. They cannot help
[37:02] you going forward. They can help you
[37:05] five years ago. So, if you want to know
[37:06] about what the Fed would have done five
[37:08] years ago, be my guest and go deal with
[37:10] it. Treasury seeks public comment on the
[37:13] Genius Act, proposing rulemaking. Now,
[37:16] the Genius Act is not the Clarity Act.
[37:17] And remember that was passed a while
[37:19] ago. This is August 17th. Again, during
[37:23] this week,
[37:26] I said to you guys back in June, I no
[37:29] longer wanted to be involved with this
[37:31] stuff. I wanted to be involved with this
[37:35] layer, the hardest layer to invest in.
[37:38] Where do we get the applications? This
[37:40] is not a software thing. The models are
[37:42] all under pressure now in terms of
[37:44] everyone's worried about them.
[37:45] Anthropics,
[37:46] they're valued at very high levels. Do I
[37:48] think Anthropic could be worth three
[37:51] trillion? Sure,
[37:53] it's already worth two trillion. What is
[37:55] three trillion going to give you? That's
[37:56] a 50% increase. We get stocks moving
[37:58] 50%. Bitcoin was up 23% this week
[38:01] because it's an application.
[38:04] It's part of the crypto ecosystem. And
[38:06] yes, I know Bitcoin doesn't benefit on
[38:08] this. But as I've shown before, Bitcoin
[38:11] is basically the S&P 500 of the crypto
[38:14] world and eventually of the entire
[38:16] ecosystem of investing. It is the only
[38:18] store of value in the digital economy.
[38:21] End of story.
[38:24] I'm glad that Stan has entered the
[38:28] crypto world in a way that can be
[38:29] publicized. Um, I've heard him talk
[38:31] about Bitcoin. uh his statements on
[38:34] Bitcoin back in like 2020 and 2021 I
[38:36] thought were brilliant because he said,
[38:38] "I don't understand it." But when I talk
[38:40] to kids, they all want it. They all
[38:42] believe in it. He knows that this is
[38:44] important. He knows you don't have to
[38:46] understand it, and you certainly don't
[38:48] have to do what Jeremy Grantham did the
[38:50] week of the lows is go on and say he
[38:52] wants to piss all over it and it's
[38:54] garbage. What an horrible the most
[38:58] ironic bottom of all time. Stan
[39:00] Duckville reveals 23 million of
[39:02] hyperlquid market structures changing.
[39:06] Market structures changing. This is my
[39:08] favorite one.
[39:11] Standiller's Dukane family office adds
[39:13] Bitcoin mining exposure through Bit Deer
[39:15] Riot Hut 8 and iron while exiting Intel
[39:19] and Micron. That's the exact same trade
[39:21] that I make. I I like it when stands on
[39:23] uh on my playbook. I like it. the end
[39:26] signal an AI max macro nexus point. Why
[39:30] am I bringing this up again?
[39:35] It's the merge time, guys. So, it brings
[39:37] me to the next intersection, the AI Max
[39:39] make macro nexus crypto. So, again,
[39:41] think about what Stan is doing.
[39:44] Regardless of his reasons on it, he's
[39:47] looking at public companies and I'm sure
[39:49] if he had the ability and maybe he does
[39:50] of being involved in some of the tokens
[39:52] and I'll go through some some of the
[39:54] charts in terms of what the ecosystem is
[39:57] doing. But if AI is creating a digital
[39:59] economy increasingly populated by
[40:00] autonomous agents, then that economy
[40:02] will require digitally native money,
[40:03] collateral, settlement, identity. At the
[40:06] same time, if the response is the debt
[40:07] burden of the existing fiat system
[40:09] increasingly requires liquidity
[40:11] creation and currency debasement, then
[40:14] scarce digital assets become more
[40:15] relevant, not less. These two forces are
[40:18] approaching each other from opposite
[40:19] directions. The old system is ending.
[40:21] The new system is beginning. The new
[40:23] system is accelerating and going to get
[40:25] all of the investment in the next phase.
[40:27] This is 101 of finding growth that is an
[40:31] innovation that will be changing the
[40:33] world. just because you don't understand
[40:35] it. By investing in the old aging system
[40:39] which cannot deal with AI agents, public
[40:43] companies cannot deal with AI agents
[40:45] regardless of what they tell you. An AI
[40:48] native company can adapt quickly. A
[40:50] public company, how long is it going to
[40:53] take for them to install agents and use
[40:55] them in a way? The only reason they can
[40:57] benefit is because their revenues are so
[40:59] big. So they will benefit until they
[41:01] stop being able to cut expenses and grow
[41:04] their revenues. At some point that will
[41:06] happen in my opinion. So again, you
[41:09] don't have to believe me, but you're
[41:11] watching this for a reason. At least
[41:13] incorporate it in there, and I'm trying
[41:14] to educate you with the things to read.
[41:18] So combine what happened with Stripe.
[41:21] They purchased Open Router. So, Stripe,
[41:24] as I've said multiple times and covered
[41:27] um at least five or six times a year,
[41:29] how important this company is to the new
[41:31] financial guardrails, how they are the
[41:33] ones that are moving quickly and doing
[41:35] things. Combine what they did this week,
[41:38] and I'm not going to read this, but you
[41:40] guys can go read it. This is a letter to
[41:42] investors explaining why they bought
[41:44] Open Router. Why would they buy
[41:46] something that is very important to what
[41:49] companies are talking about? Meaning a
[41:51] routing system where you can have open
[41:53] source and you can have frontier models
[41:55] and the router's deciding what the
[41:57] cheapest one or the best one to use is.
[41:59] Why would they do it? Well,
[42:03] [clears throat]
[42:04] that's not the only thing they're doing.
[42:07] Stripes emerging AI agent economy stack.
[42:10] So, if you want to look what the future
[42:11] is going to look like, who should you be
[42:13] paying attention to? these guys or JP
[42:17] Morgan,
[42:20] this is what they're buying. And they
[42:22] can buy these little companies in in
[42:23] their business and they're a big
[42:24] company, hundreds of billions of dollars
[42:27] in terms of valuation. But every single
[42:30] part, I wrote a big paper on this when
[42:31] they did this back two years ago. All of
[42:34] these things go through and you can read
[42:37] them on your own, but it's money,
[42:39] compute, tokens, intelligent output,
[42:42] revenue. They are basically creating a
[42:44] stack for companies like mine, companies
[42:48] that can use intelligence, tokens,
[42:51] compute. They're saying money is being
[42:53] transformed into these things and then
[42:56] coming out the other side. You're
[42:58] spending money on compute to create to
[43:00] get AI tokens for the intelligence
[43:03] involved with it. I do it all day long
[43:05] in my business.
[43:07] If you don't know enough about them,
[43:09] this was an interview that came before
[43:10] the open router announcement. This is
[43:12] it's it's a great interview. It's on
[43:14] A16Z podcast. I will put it in the
[43:18] weekly podcast sheet with the transcript
[43:21] or with the details and the link um for
[43:24] the subscribers. Tokens are the new
[43:26] dollar. Stripes will gay interviewed. Go
[43:31] listen to it. Stripe has evolved from a
[43:34] payments processor into a financial
[43:35] infrastructure platform.
[43:37] Isn't that to some degree what Amazon
[43:40] became? what Google became what all
[43:43] think about what's happening in front of
[43:45] this except these guys are on the guard
[43:48] rail side the financial side as I say to
[43:51] my son who's getting a finance major but
[43:54] is building agents every day you're an
[43:58] entrepreneur dude you can build your own
[43:59] business you don't have to go work for a
[44:01] public company if you go work for a
[44:02] public company you will be miserable the
[44:04] same way I was day one at working at
[44:06] Morgan Stanley I figured a way because I
[44:08] was learning so much to keep that
[44:10] suppressed I'm not born to work in a big
[44:12] company. I don't like managing people.
[44:15] I'll get into more of that when I show
[44:16] you Grockbot. But my son is at this
[44:19] stage where he has a finance degree.
[44:20] Every company, whether it's a
[44:22] construction company, a food company, a
[44:24] uh a pension, it doesn't matter what it
[44:26] is, you need to know finance for your
[44:29] life, for everything. So, having a
[44:31] finance degree is important, but
[44:33] finance, which is where Stripe is
[44:35] listed, they're building around that
[44:36] need. I use Stripe.
[44:40] Cost cutting is characterized as going
[44:42] short your future potential. Building
[44:44] more is going long. This is an
[44:45] entrepreneurial mindset. This is an AI
[44:47] native mindset. This is what they are.
[44:50] They're not only talking about what
[44:51] they're seeing. They're seeing explosion
[44:54] in new company formation and faster
[44:56] monetization. First half signups were
[44:58] said to be up 50% year-over-year, while
[45:01] newer startup cohorts are generating
[45:04] substantially more rev than prior
[45:06] cohorts. We are watching the
[45:08] cannibalization of all revenue inside
[45:11] the country by AI native businesses.
[45:14] It's just that the number is small. The
[45:16] Russell 2000 again is about three
[45:20] trillion less than the size of Nvidia.
[45:23] It will take time, but when you're
[45:25] growing and you're seeing companies like
[45:26] Anthropic go from a valuation of a
[45:28] 100red billion to two to three trillion
[45:31] in less than 18 months, we've never seen
[45:33] this before. This is what you're going
[45:35] to see with other AI native businesses
[45:38] and just wait till humanoids come. You
[45:40] will see the same thing.
[45:42] Agentic commerce is still missing basic
[45:44] infrastructure. This is the reason why
[45:45] we haven't seen the crypto side yet
[45:47] because the Aentic commerce side is not
[45:48] there yet. But once it comes, that's
[45:50] where the growth comes in this. This is
[45:51] where every hedge fund gets involved,
[45:53] which will happen before the end of the
[45:54] year because they will start to see the
[45:55] numbers that's happening already and
[45:57] value acrruel and all the revenues and
[45:58] everything that's already going on and
[46:00] realizing, oh my god, this thing is so
[46:01] cheap. You're starting to see it with
[46:03] companies like Figure. You're starting
[46:04] to see it with the ones that I've
[46:05] mentioned on here where people start
[46:07] doing their homework and they're like,
[46:08] "Wait a second. You're growing that
[46:09] fast?" That's like AI growth.
[46:12] It's connected to agents and it's going
[46:15] to continue to grow rapidly, especially
[46:17] while the government is giving the all
[46:19] clear.
[46:20] AI agents could finally make microp
[46:22] payments economically important. Small
[46:24] things. Stripe C stable coins
[46:25] fundamentally a superior global payment
[46:26] infrastructure. The central thesis
[46:29] tokens are the new dollars. They see a
[46:32] blurring between AI tokens and money. AI
[46:36] macro nexus point.
[46:39] If you don't know anything about crypto,
[46:44] you're going to have a hard time in this
[46:46] new world as tokenization comes. So,
[46:48] here's the visual for you on this. The
[46:51] cost per token continues to collapse.
[46:53] The economic viable task rises. We're
[46:55] getting Jeban's paradox. That's what it
[46:57] looks like. That's why the pie is
[46:59] getting bigger and bigger and going
[47:00] there. That's why focusing on whether
[47:02] Anthropic is going to have their
[47:03] revenues grow or not is ridiculous.
[47:04] They're never going to stop or they will
[47:06] at some point, but not in the near term
[47:07] because the pie is just growing too fast
[47:09] because the adoption phase is still
[47:11] here. We just don't have anybody still
[47:14] going through in those size. It's better
[47:16] than it was a year ago, but we're in the
[47:17] early stages because nobody's using
[47:19] agents yet, which I'll show you with
[47:20] crackpot. So, this is the visual that
[47:22] comes. AI breaks the relationship
[47:24] between economic output and human time.
[47:28] This is what I basically said, the old
[47:31] economy, which economists like to do
[47:34] research on, and the new economy, the
[47:37] one that's built on capital, energy,
[47:39] compute, tokens, human judgment, output.
[47:41] So, if everyone's told you it's going to
[47:42] blow up, the economy is not AI. It's all
[47:44] AI, all this stuff. It's irrelevant. AI
[47:47] is here. It's going to be here. The
[47:49] capital will be raised. They will
[47:51] continue to grow. If you got a chance to
[47:53] read the paper I did last week, which is
[47:54] all on the All-In podcast, go read it,
[47:57] subscribers. If you were sitting at the
[47:59] beach and you didn't get a chance, go
[48:00] read it and just realize so you don't
[48:02] have to call me about is Anthropic done?
[48:05] Did you see the news? I don't care.
[48:08] It's going higher. All of it. The
[48:10] problem is the stocks are not going to
[48:12] respond the way they did in the first
[48:13] quarter which is frustrating people
[48:14] because they're fully still at the
[48:16] buffet table bloated with all of the AI
[48:19] infrastructure stuff which is going to
[48:20] outperform but I think people are
[48:22] looking for 20 30 40 50% outperformance
[48:26] and that's where I think it's going to
[48:27] be an issue personally I think some of
[48:28] them will but not all of them um don't
[48:31] need to go through this again um it's
[48:34] just really an emphasis that the
[48:35] implications from an investment
[48:37] standpoint is changing time which is why
[48:39] Stripe is saying the singularity has
[48:41] begun.
[48:44] Don't forget tokenized stocks are
[48:46] happening the other side of crypto and
[48:49] this is the trading volume in tokenized
[48:51] equities which again fits in a lot with
[48:54] all the things that we were talking
[48:57] about. So my 46 name equal weight
[49:00] tokenized index over Bitcoin again
[49:03] showing you that number one the
[49:06] ecosystem is outperforming Bitcoin right
[49:09] now which is good even outperformed this
[49:12] week it's up for the year now the
[49:15] ecosystem which includes Bitcoin but
[49:17] it's equal weight so this is the 46 name
[49:18] equal weight index uh of companies
[49:22] Bitcoin's there and you can see how
[49:23] highly correlated they are which again
[49:25] is why if you want to invest in the 40
[49:28] name equal weight. You can invest in
[49:29] Bitcoin and you're going to get
[49:31] basically the ecosystem. As this goes
[49:33] higher, this will go higher. I don't
[49:35] need to take you guys through now. If
[49:37] you want to read some of my old stuff,
[49:38] you can do that. If you want to call up
[49:40] and call Mark Whailing, go ahead. I'll
[49:43] give you guys why Bitcoin so important
[49:45] to this group. So, these are the 10
[49:47] verticals. Not going to read you all of
[49:50] them. Two of them are up big this year.
[49:54] The eight of them are down. the two that
[49:56] are up. Digital monetary assets. This
[49:59] this one, I'm not going to go through
[50:01] the names in them, but there's a lot of
[50:03] stuff going on in this AI agents in the
[50:06] machine economy. Not surprisingly, doing
[50:08] well. Um, these are all turned up this
[50:11] week. They're highly correlated, but
[50:13] there's 46 of them, including
[50:19] up. We're destroying the valuation, and
[50:22] that means multiples should compress.
[50:24] That means as the S&P grows earnings 35%
[50:27] as they look like they're doing this
[50:29] year, maybe the S&P is up 20.
[50:33] That's not the way it normally works. If
[50:35] we were in a bubble, as people say with
[50:38] everything going on and earnings growing
[50:40] at unprecedented levels, no hiring, no
[50:42] worry about the labor market, inflation
[50:44] is in check despite what people tell you
[50:47] uh on where it may go or may not go.
[50:49] People still saying double-digit
[50:51] inflation and stuff like that to scare
[50:52] people. The reality is we should be up
[50:55] 50%, 100%. I saw the NDX or the NASDAQ
[50:59] bubble. These names should be up a lot
[51:01] more at this point. We we we had a
[51:03] cancer vaccine this week for Christ's
[51:04] sake with melanoma.
[51:07] The market finished down for the week.
[51:10] Like cancer vaccine,
[51:13] this is not a bull market. Meaning this
[51:15] is not a bubble.
[51:17] You're going to have to hedge yourself
[51:18] in the fact that this is already showing
[51:20] signs of weakness. the aging fiat system
[51:22] is showing up. And so again, the next
[51:24] constraint is financial. It's not
[51:26] physical. The physical side outperformed
[51:28] the first part. That's what this year is
[51:30] about. Next year, in my opinion, it's
[51:32] all about understanding how to invest in
[51:34] these. And most people haven't started
[51:38] the work. They haven't done anything on
[51:40] it. And I can tell you that based on the
[51:42] questions I get now, a lot of the people
[51:44] that watch this video and especially
[51:46] this week given what happened with
[51:47] Bitcoin
[51:48] understand. But everyone else is trying
[51:51] to trade treasuries and trade FX and
[51:54] short the NASDAQ and wait for I I like
[51:56] they're just wasting their time playing
[51:58] around in an old age home with inside
[52:00] that market. And now that the physical
[52:03] part of AI has been discounted that
[52:06] everyone's long it it's going to be
[52:09] harder. That's the way markets go. And
[52:11] then the stuff like Eli Liy, nobody
[52:13] wants to hear me talk about Eli Liy.
[52:14] Nobody. because they don't care about a
[52:16] company growing revenues 50%
[52:18] year-over-year unless it moves 100, 200,
[52:20] 300%. Bitcoin will do that. Ethereum
[52:22] will do that. And that's where I think
[52:24] people will go. Reach out to Mark
[52:25] Whailing, get your sample package with
[52:28] some of the work that we do. And for you
[52:30] RAAS and FAS,
[52:32] cancel your subscriptions at someone to
[52:35] put me on there unless they have this.
[52:38] If they have it, God bless you. You'll
[52:40] get the work. But if you're paying
[52:42] someone to talk about things that don't
[52:44] matter, I don't know how that helps your
[52:46] business going forward. And maybe it
[52:48] helps it today and maybe you're in a
[52:50] cushy job and you're just sitting there.
[52:51] But I'm just telling you, we're living
[52:53] in a world of so much noise and so many
[52:56] questions are going to come from people.
[52:58] You want to outperform and you got to be
[53:00] on top of where the crypto side is.
[53:01] Again, above the 200 day moving average
[53:03] in Bitcoin. I am going to be pounding my
[53:05] my my hands [snorts] on the table and
[53:08] doing everything because the tape is
[53:10] telling me to. I already had the story
[53:12] and the narrative and believed in the
[53:13] trend that was going on with the
[53:14] government and the revenues and the
[53:16] math. But now we have the tape as well.
[53:19] Signal verse noise.
[53:23] The endgame bias again. So again
[53:26] this thing going to kill you. Okay. This
[53:30] has been now one, two, three years of
[53:35] tenure rates trading between four and
[53:37] 470 for almost the entire time. And yet
[53:41] every technical person, every per they
[53:44] want to tell you it's going to break
[53:45] out. It's going to six. It's going to
[53:46] seven. I've seen all the charts and
[53:48] they're fighting the government. Can it
[53:50] happen? Yeah. But when people start
[53:51] telling me the United States of America
[53:53] is an emerging market because we're
[53:56] keeping rates, that is just BS.
[54:02] Nvidia
[54:05] again every time I hear a is a bubble
[54:07] the reason it's noise is because until
[54:09] Nvidia which is still growing their
[54:11] earnings these are the numbers the last
[54:14] three years this is insane
[54:19] are they lower than they were here yeah
[54:22] this was the beginning of the data
[54:24] center buildout these are the
[54:26] expectations here's the PE E based on
[54:30] those numbers, a PEG ratio below one on
[54:33] what should be trading probably double
[54:35] where it is. I think the PE should be 50
[54:39] based on what a bubble would look like.
[54:42] So, just remember that that every time
[54:43] you hear bubble, it's total BS. Oil,
[54:48] first of all, going to 200 was a joke.
[54:50] This is the year-over-year rate of
[54:52] change in the sixth contract of oil,
[54:56] guys. This is a fact. So when you tell
[55:00] me that oil's up and we're going to 90
[55:01] and we're going this, I don't care one
[55:03] bit. I don't know how many cycles you
[55:06] guys have lived through. Oil being up
[55:08] 27% year-over-year does not matter one
[55:10] bit. Doesn't matter. So unless something
[55:14] changes, and again, if it moved up here,
[55:16] it doesn't matter. 40% year-over-year,
[55:18] it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter
[55:20] where it goes to. It matters if it sits
[55:22] there at a long time. So, if you think
[55:24] that that's going to happen, that's
[55:26] great, but it's not there. So, go buy
[55:30] oil stocks and just stop talking about
[55:32] how it's going to take down the economy.
[55:34] Here's the multiple in the S&P off next
[55:36] year's earnings. This is the one. This
[55:38] is the PEG ratio or sorry, the PE on
[55:41] forward estimates on on the S&P. The
[55:43] reason I want to bring this up is
[55:44] because AI agents came out. Here's
[55:47] what's happened to the PE of the S&P.
[55:50] We've gone down 20%. So this is off next
[55:54] year's earnings. That's how much
[55:55] earnings have gone up despite the fact
[55:57] that the price has gone higher.
[56:00] This is not a bubble. If anything, this
[56:02] is the market telling you we believe
[56:04] terminal value is ending. We believe you
[56:07] cannot value the market. I believe this
[56:09] number will continue to decline in an
[56:12] upward tape, meaning prices will
[56:14] underperform earnings until we start to
[56:18] see profit margins work out and then the
[56:20] multiple will really collapse because
[56:22] that means the entrepreneurship is
[56:24] growing. I'm telling you this because
[56:25] once the growth rate stops, this is
[56:28] everyone's biggest position in the
[56:29] world. And I am not positive on the S&P
[56:33] 500. I am not positive on this chart. I
[56:37] believe this thing will continue to go
[56:39] down because of AI.
[56:45] Here's the performance of the S&P from
[56:48] the end of 2022, that bare market to
[56:50] now. The reason I want to show this is
[56:52] because regardless of what my views are
[56:54] in 2030, the reality is the S&P is
[56:56] pumping out 20% a year despite all the
[56:58] noise, despite the tariff fears, despite
[57:00] uh SVB, despite uh the war in Iran. Like
[57:05] guys, no matter what happens, you're
[57:08] getting 20% in this. Like this has
[57:11] become a thing. It's been a thing since
[57:13] the great financial crisis. That's why
[57:15] everyone calls it a bubble. But it just
[57:17] continues. Could it fall at some point?
[57:19] Yeah. But again, earnings are growing.
[57:23] There's no there's no debt to be a
[57:24] problem other than AI, and AI's revenues
[57:26] are growing rapidly. Here's Nvidia. So,
[57:29] if you've gone through all of the bubble
[57:30] part, the deepseat fears, and all of the
[57:32] things that have made you not belong in
[57:36] Vidia,
[57:37] it's up 109% since 2022.
[57:41] Sorry, a year. It's up since 2022, 14.
[57:46] You've had a 14 bagger despite all of
[57:48] the AI bubble fears that have gone on.
[57:51] And this is again 2022 is coming out of
[57:53] the rate hike cycle, but it's also when
[57:56] chatpt started. It's a 14 bagger. Micron
[57:58] did a 14 bagger recently.
[58:05] All right. This doesn't want to come up.
[58:09] No. Having a little problem here with my
[58:16] All right. Well, unfortunately, I knew
[58:19] this was going to happen at some point.
[58:21] Let's see if it's going to come up. All
[58:23] right. I'm just going to leave this here
[58:24] for now. So this is the Micro Strategy
[58:27] uh returns
[58:29] which are good. Uh they're up 600%
[58:32] during that time period.
[58:37] Let me see if I can switch this up
[58:39] another way.
[58:48] All right. Well, given the fact that I'm
[58:50] not going to uh
[58:56] restart the video.
[59:06] I'm going to try and do this the
[59:07] oldfashioned way. So, you guys are going
[59:10] to bear with me. You're going to get
[59:12] some enjoyment. There's going to be no
[59:14] editing because this is a oneman show.
[59:15] And now I see what the problem is.
[59:20] Jord's got no Wi-Fi right now.
[59:25] So, we're going to switch Wi-Fi because
[59:27] you know me, I got a backup for that
[59:29] stuff.
[59:34] Love to give you more entertainment, but
[59:36] unfortunately, this is the best I got,
[59:38] guys. So, just bear with me here as I
[59:40] get you back to where we were. Ignore
[59:42] this part if you didn't fast forward to
[59:44] it. I appreciate you sticking with me.
[59:46] All right, see we're back. You just got
[59:48] to give me time to get through things.
[59:51] All right, MSDR
[59:53] 76% a year since 22. The reason I want
[59:56] to bring this one up is 76% a year is
[60:01] what it's produced since the end of
[60:03] 2022. And this is where the chart is.
[60:06] What do you think's going to happen when
[60:08] Bitcoin goes back to all-time highs? So
[60:10] again, for all you noise people on Micro
[60:13] Strategy, give me a break.
[60:17] Uh, here's the month-to- date numbers
[60:20] for the Globe.
[60:26] Here are the year-to- date numbers for
[60:28] the Globe. The Cosby, despite its crash,
[60:30] just like that Micro Strategy thing, up
[60:32] 64%. Reason I'm bringing this up is for
[60:35] all the noise you guys have heard on the
[60:36] equity market and the bubble and
[60:38] everything, the reality is it's just
[60:40] fine. Signal verse noise.
[60:45] Here's the JV thematic portfolio. So
[60:49] again, I'm going to say this over and
[60:50] over again. By the end of the year, I
[60:51] expect new all-time highs in this. For
[60:53] everyone who's just jumping in, think
[60:54] we're going to do one of these again.
[60:56] Not happening in my opinion. No chance,
[60:58] no way, no how. I'll show you why. Do I
[61:00] think we're going to grind our way
[61:01] higher? Yes. Remember this fall the VA
[61:04] exploded in the names. And like I said,
[61:06] these names are coming out of the ICU.
[61:08] They're just been released. That's what
[61:10] this low was. They're not going to be
[61:12] healthy again for at least 6 months.
[61:16] Some of the names will, and the names
[61:18] that I've highlighted to you, my biggest
[61:20] positions with inside this portfolio,
[61:23] um, Eli Liy doesn't really count. Silver
[61:26] doesn't really count, but it's part of
[61:27] the portfolio. Bitcoin doesn't really
[61:30] count because you guys either don't
[61:32] believe in it or it's not one of the
[61:34] names in the thematic portfolio that you
[61:35] guys um are in. Marll, I still love it.
[61:39] I'm still sticking with it. I still
[61:41] think there's a triple quadruple from
[61:43] here in my opinion. Um take it for what
[61:45] it is. It's just me thinking that it's
[61:47] going to go higher over the course of
[61:48] the next few years in a big way. I have
[61:51] Microner
[61:52] than it was before. Uh, and then I have
[61:54] a lot of little names like Chamore,
[61:57] Camores, um, Fluence, uh, a lot of
[62:00] things in there that are just kind of
[62:02] tiny positions that I still have that I
[62:04] think eventually will, uh, be something
[62:06] that I want to remember I have in there
[62:08] and have a big bigger position in. Uh,
[62:10] but they're very, very tiny at this
[62:11] point. So, I think we're going to get
[62:13] back and forth. I think these lows to me
[62:15] are absolutely the low. I think we're
[62:17] going to get through the highs. I just
[62:19] don't think it's going to be in a
[62:22] moonshot way like it was here. And most
[62:24] importantly, some of the names like
[62:27] Fluence is down 50% from where I think I
[62:30] made my highest purchase in it. 50%. I
[62:34] expect those types of things, guys. I'm
[62:36] in the name. I'm in I have a little tiny
[62:38] position in EOS as well, which is down
[62:40] even more than that. So, just remember
[62:43] the way that I deal with my portfolio is
[62:46] going to be different than you guys.
[62:47] trade your names based on the way you
[62:49] trade risk. But right now, I think
[62:51] crypto, Eli, Lily, silver, those are the
[62:53] places that I rotated into and reduced
[62:56] all those other things. The anthropic
[62:59] thing, which scared the hell out of
[63:00] people and got everyone going, it is
[63:02] just complete noise, guys. For Christ's
[63:05] sake, it's just complete noise.
[63:08] Um, and Warren Pies put this out. I I
[63:11] knew when I read it, it was going to
[63:13] have an impact. I'm kind of surprised he
[63:15] didn't realize. I didn't I like Warren a
[63:17] lot but I mean we are seeing some early
[63:20] cracks in our GPU availability data.
[63:22] Anything that comes out like that people
[63:24] are going to overreact to. So he's not
[63:27] going to overreact but everyone else did
[63:28] but have to call balls and strikes. We
[63:30] are going to get to a point where GPU
[63:31] pricing stops going higher. That does
[63:33] not mean anything bad is going on guys.
[63:35] Sorry. They shouldn't be going higher in
[63:38] the first place. That was the whole
[63:39] argument is that they depreciate at some
[63:41] point. They'll just go sideways at a
[63:43] high level. The fireworks show is over.
[63:46] So, I just wanted to remind you guys
[63:47] this as thinking about the way this is
[63:49] going to move. I talked about it now
[63:51] enough, but just keep this in the back
[63:52] of your mind that one of the hardest
[63:54] things for investors to recognize during
[63:56] an exponential technical technological
[63:58] transition is the difference between new
[63:59] information and delayed understanding.
[64:02] A lot's changed. A lot has changed.
[64:06] Everyone's involved. So, this is where I
[64:09] think we are in AI. The fireworks show
[64:10] is over and the last couple weeks have
[64:12] been the climax of an incredible
[64:13] display. This is from the first week of
[64:15] June. Maybe this is my time to be caught
[64:17] going against the exponential tide.
[64:19] Nope, it wasn't. It was exactly the
[64:21] right time to be writing this paper
[64:22] because June 6 was a time that if you
[64:24] reduced your positions, you'd be in a
[64:27] lot better shape and be a lot more
[64:28] aggressive and not caring as much about
[64:30] the back and forth. But I think the
[64:31] warning signs are clear. More people are
[64:33] now fighting against the bottleneck and
[64:34] shortage side. This was my argument
[64:36] against what would be the likely cause
[64:40] against the agentic AI buildout itself.
[64:42] For me, that usually means the all you
[64:43] can eat AI buffet has left everyone full
[64:45] and in need of a digestion period. I
[64:47] still think that's going on. Um, I just
[64:50] want to let you This is the Goldman
[64:51] Sachs most crowded hedge fund names
[64:54] overlaid with my thematic portfolio.
[64:57] This just means that everyone's in the
[64:59] AI infrastructure trade. Doesn't mean
[65:00] it's wrong. Hedge funds do very well and
[65:02] I'm sure that's going to work out well,
[65:04] but they're in it, which makes it
[65:05] harder. Secondly, this V differential,
[65:08] you have to remember we had a period
[65:10] where because it was going up so fast, V
[65:13] was going higher while you were making
[65:14] money. That is not a normal thing.
[65:16] Normally, V is going higher and people
[65:17] are losing money unless they're short
[65:19] the market. The fact he made money while
[65:21] the market was going higher. When Vin
[65:23] kept going higher around here and the
[65:25] market went down, that's when the issue
[65:27] came in. This is overlaid with six-month
[65:29] Vault. This is a structural difference
[65:31] in the marketplace. And this is Micron
[65:33] and IBM 90-day V overlaid with the S&P
[65:37] 90-day V going back to 2009 since the
[65:40] great financial crisis. This has never
[65:42] happened before, ever that you could
[65:45] have the biggest companies in the market
[65:47] having V spike and the S&P not move.
[65:52] Tech momentum
[65:54] 5% moves a day in the Morgan Stanley
[65:56] tech momentum. I just did a histogram of
[65:58] it. uh none in this period post the
[66:02] great financial crisis. Um 57 so far
[66:06] this year. We're not even eight months
[66:08] or through the year. We're not even
[66:11] we're we're just at a point right now,
[66:12] guys, when you go through this that it's
[66:14] insane how much we've moved. Here's the
[66:18] Nvidia pain trade. So here's their
[66:21] earnings never stopping. So they just
[66:24] keep going. They just the energ the
[66:27] Energizer Bunny keeps going. This arrow
[66:29] here points to the problem. Beginning in
[66:31] 2024 after Wow, this looks a lot like
[66:34] the AI thematic trade. Let's assume
[66:36] maybe this is where it was.
[66:40] Okay, so
[66:42] this is the price movement. Okay, this
[66:46] is what happened to the PE ratio. So the
[66:49] PE ratio peaked there
[66:52] in the 40-50
[66:54] area and now it's down at 19. That is
[66:58] called moving higher in mud. That's the
[67:00] Nvidia mud trap. You want to see how
[67:02] painful it is from an alpha perspective
[67:05] since June 7th of 2024. For the last 26
[67:10] months,
[67:11] this is Nvidia relative to the S&P.
[67:15] Aside from these two bars, you've
[67:18] basically been in the same death trap as
[67:20] tenure rates.
[67:22] So, if you're looking for this for
[67:24] alpha, which is why everyone has boycott
[67:25] it, which everyone complains about it,
[67:27] here is how you made money. This is when
[67:30] it outperformed from April of 25
[67:34] to August of 25 for four months out of
[67:37] 26. That's the only time you made money
[67:39] on the alpha side other than just
[67:40] trading it. So this is what I expect for
[67:43] most of the infrastructure trades. They
[67:45] are going to be beast now because it's
[67:47] discounted because we're going to see
[67:49] multiple compression. Even though the
[67:50] multiples are low, the PEG ratio on
[67:53] Nvidia is no different than those PEG
[67:54] ratios and it's been there almost the
[67:56] entire time.
[67:58] S&P 500 17% a year since 2024. Nvidia
[68:03] was 30%. So you get that alpha
[68:05] outperformance, but again it's very
[68:07] frustrating to have it in there. So I
[68:09] expect that to happen. All right, let's
[68:11] move and start to finish this up. It's
[68:12] gone too long, but it's an important
[68:14] one. I'm going to blast through
[68:17] Grockbot.
[68:18] I would estimate my personal AI usage is
[68:20] up like a hundred times. Completely
[68:22] agree with Gavin Baker. That's why I put
[68:24] this began managing people in my 20s
[68:26] after 48 hours using Rockbot. One thing
[68:28] is clear. Access to a team of 247 365
[68:31] digital employees has just been
[68:32] democratized from a usability
[68:34] standpoint, not a price standpoint. This
[68:36] thing still costs $200 a month. I
[68:38] believe it's the cheapest you can get it
[68:39] for. However, I would try it for a month
[68:42] and I'm going to show you why. But
[68:45] this has been unbelievable in a short
[68:48] amount of time. So, for those of you who
[68:50] have not gone through the open claw or
[68:52] maybe you started it and you gave up or
[68:54] Hermes or you used it and you got
[68:56] frustrated because XYZ happened, this is
[68:59] Elon Musk and Cursor's
[69:02] solution and it is awesome.
[69:05] So, I'm just showing you what it looks
[69:07] like and just showing you how I started
[69:09] it. It took me zero time to start. You
[69:12] start, you have a chief of staff and
[69:16] then you just start creating bots. You
[69:18] just create them and you give them a
[69:21] title, a writer, a gent commerce
[69:24] research person.
[69:27] Then the next stage for me is I went,
[69:28] you know what, I want there to be a
[69:30] chief of staff that reports to me and
[69:31] then they report to the chief of staff.
[69:33] So I can either ask the chief of staff a
[69:36] question and then that Jarvis in my case
[69:39] can go ask Victor, Mary or Bernie who
[69:42] are specialists in editing, Agentic
[69:45] Commerce, Deep Researcher. These are all
[69:47] things I do for my writing. I do a ton
[69:49] of research using AI. I write my papers.
[69:52] I have an editor go through. I bounce
[69:53] off suggestions with them. And then
[69:55] Agenta Commerce is my favorite thing to
[69:57] get news items on. So in this case
[70:01] running the weekend tape scan now. So I
[70:04] create these routines which show up over
[70:06] here. They run these on their own. This
[70:09] is not on my computer. This is in the
[70:10] cloud. This is a massive moment. So when
[70:14] I have my open claw and I have to use a
[70:16] certain intelligence. I have to download
[70:18] it onto my computer. I don't want it to
[70:20] be around my files. This one is
[70:21] integrated with my files and I love it.
[70:24] It's also integrated with my login to my
[70:27] apps. I'll show you some of that. Now,
[70:30] I've expanded it. So, this is where I
[70:32] wanted to go. And for you guys who
[70:33] actually get it and try it. If you just
[70:36] consistently put the sheets that I
[70:38] upload to the subscriber website for my
[70:41] technical pages for the fundamental
[70:42] pages all to a folder and then you just
[70:45] connect this to the folder one time and
[70:47] just say, "Okay, I want you to connect
[70:49] to this folder." And you give it the
[70:50] location and you give it an instruction.
[70:52] I only want you to use this for data.
[70:54] You don't write anything. You don't save
[70:55] anything. You don't do anything. You
[70:57] just have it access it and then you can
[70:59] go in and ask it questions like
[71:02] how many of the names in technical sheet
[71:04] were above the 50-day moving average the
[71:05] last week and it goes through. Okay, how
[71:08] many were above the two 20-day of the 72
[71:10] that were above the 20? This takes it's
[71:12] instant in terms of the reaction speed.
[71:15] This is why you need to use it. Then you
[71:17] can go even further and then you can
[71:19] basically go now give me a list of how
[71:20] many were above the 50-day moving
[71:21] average by week by week. So, it gives me
[71:24] that thing that I show you guys in terms
[71:25] of how many are above from prior weeks.
[71:28] It's taking it's going through all of
[71:30] the files on the sheet and doing that.
[71:32] If I want to go through which ones are
[71:34] near the all-time highs or the furthest
[71:35] away from all-time highs very quickly,
[71:37] anything I want to get from it. And you
[71:39] can see that I added agency, alpha,
[71:42] signal, each one of these has a
[71:44] different skill set that I'm using. You
[71:46] can do this for anything. I connected
[71:48] one and I called it call. This is my
[71:51] earnings commentary one. So, all I got
[71:52] to do in is put the stock symbol and
[71:54] then it goes through and it gives me the
[71:56] last four reported all of this stuff,
[71:58] guys. And it takes seconds. It's just
[72:00] how many ideas you can figure out and
[72:03] where you can go. So, in this case, I
[72:06] went into the computer. There's a
[72:07] computer screen over here, which is on
[72:09] the cloud. You sign into your site. It's
[72:13] part of this. And then this one here,
[72:15] alpha, I just go into it and say, "Give
[72:17] me the bull bear case." And it goes to
[72:19] X. I'm doing it on X. I want to see the
[72:22] bull bear case and anything you can
[72:23] connect to whatever apps you want inside
[72:25] here. It's not on your computer. It's in
[72:28] the cloud. Then you can go in and
[72:30] create. Okay, I want to go through and I
[72:32] want to make sure it's helping me get
[72:34] ready for anything during the week. I
[72:36] save my stuff into notion. It has a
[72:39] notion notion plugin. So when it's
[72:41] running stuff, it saves thing to its own
[72:43] notion account uh notion uh folder. And
[72:47] then I go look at it on Friday before I
[72:49] do this with you guys to see if there's
[72:50] anything else that I may have missed for
[72:51] the week. So you can see how this goes.
[72:55] It's got all these runs that it does for
[72:57] me. I just wanted to make sure you guys
[72:59] saw it. This thing is important. So to
[73:01] finish up the week, Maderna shares more
[73:03] than double on success of
[73:05] MRNA cancer vaccine. I've talked about
[73:08] this. I've said publicly we will start
[73:11] being a in a place based on everything
[73:13] that I read and talk to that by 2030 we
[73:16] will be at the point where you can say
[73:18] safely we will be able to stop all
[73:21] disease in the foreseeable future that
[73:24] people won't have to die from disease.
[73:28] You have to think about what that means
[73:30] for the stock market what that means for
[73:32] companies what that means for the
[73:34] deficit the debt all these things.
[73:36] Again, you have to think forward on
[73:38] these things, but we're getting now
[73:39] things like a cancer vaccine. I wrote
[73:42] this in November of last or in June of
[73:45] this year on Eli Liy in terms of what's
[73:49] going to happen, but I wrote this back
[73:52] in November of 25 on how artificial
[73:54] intelligence is transforming pharma's
[73:56] broken economics. I highlighted some
[73:58] things in there. I'm not going to read
[74:00] it because I've gone further, but I did
[74:02] ask JT GBT, "What would happen to the
[74:03] stock market if humanity discovered a
[74:05] true, widely accessible cure for
[74:07] cancer." Its answer was blunt. Global
[74:09] equities would likely surge 20 to 30%
[74:11] almost immediately as markets replace
[74:13] longer lifespans, longer health care
[74:15] burden, lower healthcare burdens, and
[74:17] higher future consumption.
[74:20] Just think about what we're going
[74:22] through. So the argument I made in that
[74:24] November paper was that pharma was
[74:25] entering a new place of a rerating.
[74:28] Legacy pharma is a 5% growth thing with
[74:31] 25% free cash flow margin. It fails the
[74:34] rule of 40 growth asset test. But if it
[74:37] goes to 10 to 12 and free cash flow
[74:39] improves because of the benefits that
[74:41] come from AI both on the discovery side
[74:43] and the efficacy side but also on the
[74:47] efficiency side they would get it to a
[74:49] rerating.
[74:51] I believe multiples will go from 12 to
[74:55] 15 to 20 to 25. And this is one of the
[74:57] reasons why I've said publicly
[75:00] that Eli Liy will be the biggest company
[75:02] in 5 years. So I believe Eli Liy is a
[75:06] cash cow bringing in money on obesity
[75:08] medicine that everyone would like to get
[75:12] because it's the biggest problem in the
[75:13] country. And if they get those, it has
[75:15] huge implications for the revenues. And
[75:17] as they're getting that cash in the
[75:19] door, they are doing M&A like a drunken
[75:22] sailor right now. They are buying up
[75:24] companies because stage two IP is now
[75:28] worth a lot of money if you believe by
[75:30] taking it and you have your own AI data
[75:33] center, which they do and you connected
[75:35] to it, you should start to see more
[75:37] value on this. And I can tell you from
[75:39] the few people I know in the healthcare
[75:40] side, they're not all over this. It's
[75:43] science people that are, but there's too
[75:45] many people that are doubting this. So,
[75:47] you guys can read this on your own. It's
[75:49] been an important week in my mind. We'll
[75:51] see if Bitcoin can stay above the 200
[75:52] day moving average. For those of you who
[75:54] want to reach out, just call Mark, email
[75:56] Mark Whailing. Um, I think it's an
[75:59] important time. The crypto stuff will be
[76:01] a video and papers that come out
[76:04] probably weekly. They'll be on the
[76:06] subscriber site, both the videos and
[76:08] that. If you guys are interested, great.
[76:11] You can go over to the website. This
[76:13] will be part of everyone who's already
[76:14] signed up as a subscriber. There's no
[76:16] additional cost. It's just going on
[76:17] there, which means if anyone subscribes
[76:19] primarily for the crypto side, you're
[76:21] going to get the AI side, too. You can
[76:22] find out more about it. Have a great
[76:24] week, guys. I will see you definitely
[76:26] from Brooklyn next week. Sorry for the
[76:28] little glitch in the video. Uh, but when
[76:30] you're oneman show, sometimes you just
[76:32] got to make do. See youa.