Gavin Baker (invitado)
Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Transcripción completa
[00:30] execution from start to finish. Was that how you interpreted it? >> I thought Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley did a very good job. >> Yeah. Um what do you think the market is looking for SpaceX next? Is it all eyes on the first earnings report? Like where do we go from here? Because there's so much of the SpaceX story preipo that was a decade out, 5 years out, two years out. But is the market going to be processing quarter by quarter plays like a like many other companies? >> Well, I think the market is always, you
[01:01] know, quarters matter. >> Yeah. >> Um, you know, the runners on X, you know, it's like they're these reply people on X for any topic or experts. >> Yeah. >> But, um, somebody once told me a marathon is 26 onem runs. Yeah. >> And so, you know, and then all the runners were like, "No, that's not true at all." Running, you know, obviously running a mile is different than running a marathon. But, you know, every quarter matters. Uh but at the same time I do think if you look at how um the market has has looked at Tesla
[01:31] over the last five six years you know Amazon during kind of the days of you know when they were building out AWS and then um you know kind of their their retail distribution infrastructure when they'd go through these investment cycles. I do think the public market has a much greater tolerance um for investment and a much longer time horizon than a lot of people in the venture ecosystem give it credit for. By the way, this is Foxy in the back. Um he's our he's um he's one of the
[02:03] analysts here at Trades. >> I was just listening to him on the Brad Gersonner podcast. I think he chimed in on that, right? You brought him in. There we go. >> Yes, he did. But he did the work on SpaceX. So, I thought you guys might want to fantastic about that. Um, but I do think that I'm not sure the story is as far out as you made it seem to be. >> I think there are two variables that are going to matter a lot over the next year. >> Mhm. >> The first is just how quickly can they bring on terrestrial compute. >> Yeah.
[02:33] >> It does seem like they monetize gigawatts at a higher rate than anyone else. >> Yeah. >> And we know from Jensen that they bring on data centers faster. >> Yeah. >> Than anyone else per Jensen's words. Yeah. >> Um and everyone in the ecosystem is really incented to get um land and power in the hands of people who can energize it because everybody starts making more money when the GPUs are energized. Um so you know if they can what what are what
[03:03] what was the altimeter figure for how what they were monetizing gigawatts at Foxy? Do you remember for which deal? Well, I think it was like two to three, wasn't it? Like at least two times higher than like average Neocloud pricing and that's partly in due to scale and customer quality and things like that, but it was meaningful. >> Yeah. So, they're doing 50 billion a gigawatt on the Google deal. >> Wow. >> So, how quickly they can add gigawatts really matters. >> Yeah. >> Right. If you can energize two, three, four gigawatts >> y >> in the next year,
[03:34] >> that's a lot of revenue. Now you know that prices may go up, they may go down, but that's really going to matter. >> So all eyes on Colossus 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, etc. At least in the short. >> Yeah. Or macro hard, macro harder, macro >> hardest >> to that name. Yeah. Macro hardest. >> Yeah. >> Um >> and then I think cursor is another big variable. >> Yeah. Um, you know, we we talked about it with Brad about how composer 2.5 after three weeks of, you know, RL and
[04:06] supervised fine-tuning Colossus 2 is kind of paro dominant. So, what's going to happen when it's applied to a bigger, better base model? Um, I do think cursor being in, you know, half the Fortune 500 >> is interesting. So, I think those two things, you know, while I mean, I'm super excited for going to Mars and asteroid mining and >> and you know, a city and mass drivers on the moon, like all that stuff is awesome and I think there's a, you know, decent
[04:37] chance it happens in my lifetime. I just think there is there's much more tangible near-term drivers here. >> Yeah. How do you think about the tension of the cloud business versus their own application and and model business? Uh I think a lot of people were surprised when the initial anthropic deal happened purely because uh knowing Michael Truel, he would have been very excited. >> That's my compute. >> Yeah. Yeah. Get access only child around here.
[05:07] >> And it and it feels like uh you can imagine SpaceX, you know, bringing on a lot more compute very quickly. Uh but at the same time, every lab has had to go through this tension of like how much how much compute do we allocate to training versus inference. >> A way to interpret that is that maybe the team at SpaceX is pretty confident in their ability to bring gigawatts online. >> Yeah, that makes sense. >> And the altimeter figure that they've ordered 20% of the Reubins and the Reubin is an epic chip. Like Blackwell,
[05:40] it was really hard to get it online. Ruben is kind of a more drop in replacement. >> It's a really really good chip. You'll have the um you know the Grock LPUs integrated at some point in the next six nine months. >> Um >> so one way to interpret that is they're pretty confident that they can bring data centers online pretty quickly. Um, but I also I I don't remember all all of the details, but I do think there there was an out in the anthropic agreement that
[06:12] if they >> Yeah. And the and the Google and the Google D could be short-term. Well, and that's that's what I just meant. It's like it is there is like a tension there where if you you know there's a moment where maybe you want the compute, but you don't necessarily have all of the revenue yet and so you could see Anyways, I'm I'm very confident they can figure it out. >> Yeah. on on on the topic of like Elon Web Services, is there a world where uh SpaceX winds up building out more of what looks like AWS? Like we've seen between OpenAI and Anthropic, there's this tension of like you got to be on
[06:42] AWS because it or you know the ecosystem or enterprises just want to be on AWS. They won't even go over to Azure or Google Cloud for whatever. And you could imagine like it might is it enough to just be a token factory or do you need to have you know a database and an in-memory storage and you know cloud storage and cold storage and all the things that ABS provides. >> My thought is that being a token factory is more than enough for the next 5 to 10 years man. We are
[07:12] >> yeah we need more token factories. Um but we'll we'll see and if they need that stuff like they will build it. >> Yeah. How are you thinking about the other hyperscalers, the other big tech companies? Uh we we were sort of puzzling over uh Meta's strategy at this point. Tons of resources, cash flow, data centers. They have experience there. Maybe they're not as fast as as SpaceX, but there's a lot there, but it's a completely different motion to go into token factory. Um and yet there's
[07:42] still a lot of demand. So, how do you think all of that plays out? >> Well, I think there's many ways to go into the token factory business. You could if you're if you're meta, >> yeah, >> you could just say to someone like Fireworks, um, >> hey, >> here are 100,000 GPUs. We'll we'll take a revenue split and we'll see what happens. Y >> um I am increasingly looking at EV to net PP&E as a valuation metric just with the idea being installed atoms on earth I think are going to appreciate
[08:14] in value and this is a little bit that halo trade that um I think maybe Goldman Sachs came up with you know high asset value low obsolescence >> but Meta you know Meta's EV to net PP& multiple is in an interesting place it just suggests that the market has an immense amount skepticism about their ability to monetize their own asset base. >> And and I think that's I think that's warranted given that all we've really got out of management is this concept of
[08:45] personal super intelligence. >> And it would be different if Meta AI was like at the top of the app store and everyone you were talking to was like, "Yeah, you know, I'm using Meta AI >> where there even there was like a killer feature within Instagram. It's like, oh, people are shopping in Instagram now." And I think no one no one doubts that like once Zuck has an AI product with a billion dollars of revenue, he can take it to to tens of billions, >> but it's unclear. I feel like, you know, going into enterprise, like, you know, what is this API business going to going to look like? We know they can use the
[09:15] GPUs just on making the ads product better at the end of the day. And um >> but there's a lot of questions. >> Look, I think a few things. I do think it if I look at the way different players are behaving, it feels like everyone thinks we're entering the end game. Everybody, you know, loves to use these chess analogies and it looks like the endgame maybe here sooner than we think. I think that's why OpenAI is cutting codeex pricing >> simply because coding, you know, coding
[09:46] tokens are so valuable >> and if you don't have enough of them, you may not be able to get into this RSI loop that that everyone is, you know, >> pushing for. >> Um, and I I think if you're Zuckerberg, you feel that acutely. I thought muse, what did it? >> Muse spark. It it was to me it was an upside surprise and it made me feel like you know what's the uh what's what's what's from Tallaladega Nights or what
[10:17] is it? So you're saying there's a chance. >> Oh yeah. >> Like yeah so you're telling me there's a chance. Um >> I mean the other quote from Tallaladega Nights is if you're not your f if you're not first you're last. >> And and you know that's how there are so many good quotes from Talladega Nights. >> Sold the windshield. >> Yeah. 100%. But I think if um I'm pretty confident Mark Zuckerberg has proven to be a good entrepreneur over time and has been willing to pivot, you
[10:48] know, and it's just it's so funny, you know, right now Facebook is, you know, Meta has tell investors there's like no chance that we're going to, you know, you know, monetize GPUs externally. Well, like 10 days before they announced all those layoffs. Um, which I think was at the end of 22, if not I don't remember when they started to announce the layoffs. It was short shortly after Brad, maybe at two months after Brad wrote that letter to Mark where he said, "You're the king. You can do whatever you want, but this what I might
[11:19] respectfully encourage you to do." Um, you know, they went from saying, "We're not going to do that. we're gonna keep investing to, you know, super focused on OPEX in a couple of days, man. So, it's like people they meet with Meta and they hear, "Oh, you know, we're not um we're not going to monetize our GPUs externally." Well, I don't know, check back in a few hours. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, it's like everyone it comes down to like everyone has a price. You look at you look at Elon and Anthropic relationship four months ago.
[11:51] uh and then you look at kind of kind of as the opportunity unfolded >> it made sense for them to partner. I wanted to ask how >> on the meta thing I think there is one point that's important what ultimately drives behavior for all these big cap companies like getting to AI I think that does feel um existential for all of them but the stock price also really matters sure >> because if you don't if the stock goes down you know you gave people a grant at this price stock goes down you know your
[12:22] engineers are unhappy and it's tougher to get to where you want to go if you don't have you know these you know Oh, forget the 10x engineer. People are talking about the 10,000x engineer. >> You know, you're not going to get there if you don't keep those 10,000x engineers. >> Yeah. >> So, just I think >> like we'll see we'll see with Meta. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Uh how did this IPO uh update your your general kind of framework for the role that retail is playing in capital markets? Uh a lot of uh it was very
[12:54] funny last week to see people like uh say like oh that the IPO is only 2x overs subscribed by retail all these other you know three billion IPOs were we're 10x over subscribed and it's like no we're we're talking about you know a very you know order of magnitude difference here but it still feels like retail is going to >> play a very very important role over the next 12 months maybe more so than ever given that the the the hyperscalers are are now running um you know cash flow
[13:26] negative. You have the conflict in the Middle East, right? There's rebuilding efforts that needs to needs to happen. And so I feel like retail this is this is kind of um retail's moment now maybe more than ever. >> Yeah. Well, so a few things. One, people say retail in a porative way, and I would just say stupid is stupid does. And like you know we track you know there's all these indices of retail favorites and man they're up a lot and >> 25 and they're up a lot in 24
[13:58] >> you know so kind of stupid as a stupid does. So I'm not um you know like I think retail is probably outperforming the overwhelming majority of professional money managers whether they're you know private equity managers venture >> you know public equity managers whatever. So like retail, I don't think it's pjorative. I do actually think in the case of um >> SpaceX, I'm not sure, you know, you process so much information. I'm not sure where this comes from, >> but I actually think after the IPO
[14:29] um you know, for whatever reason, it some of that retail stock may have may have gotten allocated to people who were flipping it because my understanding is there was more institutional buying. I don't know where this after the IPO was retail buying. Now, I'm sure you know retail is very sensitive to momentum. So maybe what's happening today changes that. But I think another really underappreciated thing about the SpaceX IPO is that 10 over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO and that's
[15:01] just you know everybody does all these lockup analyses and oh how much stock is going to come come to market and you know for sure there's all these triple layer SPVS or whatever you know or maybe there are there are people speculate there are um and I'm sure some of that will get unwound >> but the reality reality is is that SpaceX employees own a lot of this. And if you're an employee or even if you're an investor who has an S an SPV or you're directly on the cap table, you've
[15:31] had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years, >> if you wanted to sell, you could have sold in, you know, whatever when they did that offering in in the second half of last year. So I think the supply demand dynamics here are going to be very interesting. But with retail in in general um yeah man they're they've been a more powerful force in the market over the last three and a
[16:01] half years than at any other time in my career including the year 2000 bubble which I think this is nothing like by the way. Um but yeah, they they matter and stupid is and stupid does. >> Uh I'm interested to go a click deeper on the idea of like value will acrue to companies that are in the token path. I think that phrase is uh extremely powerful right now. But I want to sort of expand it and understand the fringes of the token path because uh we talked
[16:32] to Matthew Prince at Cloudflare stocks at all-time highs. It's delivering tokens at the edge and obviously there's an immense amount of AI agents that are interfacing with different websites. They need to be distributed. So there's a lot of value there. But is Cloudflare in the token path if they're the one finally sending you the packet of tokens at the edge >> or does that not count? How does that how do you think about that? >> Every CDN has has this business. You
[17:03] know, they signed >> Yeah. what was it a$ 1.8 billion dollar with anthropic and if you have all these points of presence yeah >> and you can deliver really low latency tokens to highv value users >> I think what's interesting for for cloud for all these CDNs >> is they're they're getting a massive premium for that latency >> you know it turns out you know one of the lessons from from cerebrus is people are willing to pay for speed >> and you see that in the prices these guys are commanding but I do think I mean my gut is in terms of tokens
[17:34] consumed um on planet earth. These CDNs are delivering less than 1% of them and I mean maybe less than 10 basis points. >> They're all most of the time they're happening internally and then you just get the result. >> Um >> would I say that these guys are in the token path? I mean I would say they have a path towards being in the token path. Yeah. >> And they have part of their they have part of their business that's in it today. >> Yeah. And they're trying and like everyone they're trying to move it more and more there.
[18:04] >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean uh Matthew was talking about uh h colllocating Nvidia servers on the edge specifically for the delivery of voice models because you want those to be very low latency. Maybe you want your coding model to go off and cook in Virginia for 20 minutes or an hour and then come back to you with the final result. But uh if you're trying to actually talk to a model, you probably want it as fast as possible. What about on the opposite end? Wasn't there that startup that Nvidia just invested in that like will >> Oh yeah. on your house >> money >> that put a GPU you know four a four GPU
[18:36] server on the outside of your house. >> I mean >> GPUs are going everywhere going in your bed eventually. >> I mean it's full circle too. Wasn't Jensen talking about stuff like that back during like the original crypto cycle being like everyone's going to be you know mining. >> Yeah. And I mean the the Tesla Power Wall is like a version of that for storing energy. It doesn't store compute, but it stores energy locally on the edge, off the grid, and uh there's a lot of powerful things that get unlocked by that. What about land? Is land in the
[19:06] token path at some point on the extreme other end? Uh because people are obviously searching for go going further and further upstream. They found a a toilet company that makes a particular material that goes into semiconductor supply chain. People are hunting for like the final the final ingredient. Maybe it's just sand that turns into silicon. Yeah, I do think the bottleneck bros as they are called are this like bottleneck trade is kind of nearing its end. >> Okay. >> And you know I did um
[19:37] >> you know the Wall Street Journal had the story about this Japanese company that makes um I forget what they make >> Yeah. >> Aimoto. Um, and you know, everybody's in this because they thought they were going to raise prices and then they just said, "We're actually not going to raise prices. This is the wrong thing for us." And I almost posted yesterday on X, welcome to Japan to all of the uh bottleneck people. But, you know, everybody's, you know, having Claw and Run, what's the next bottleneck?
[20:08] >> Yeah, >> that was that was the game for the last year. The next game is what has enduring franchise value. >> Yeah. kind of on the other side of these bottlenecks whenever whenever that is >> as far as land is land a bottleneck man I do think the math for orbital compute to me it once they can reuse Starship >> I think the math for orbital compute becomes pretty compelling you know it's just 60 billion to bring on a gig terrestrially 25 is power and cooling
[20:38] you don't need that in space >> and so the right comp for that 35 billion of kind of you know IT equipment GPUs CPUs switches um you know memory storage um is is that 25 billion versus the cost of launch and one starship is reusable I think the cost of launch is 5 billion so 20 that means you can put a gig into space for 30 billion and a gig on earth is 60 billion and that 25 the power and
[21:08] cooling >> feels reasonably inflationary to me >> sure >> um so I don't know that I would say and is in the tokens token path. >> Maybe beachfront property, but that's about it. >> Yeah, beachfront property is beachfront property, airplanes. >> Yeah. >> Really nice cars. >> Yep. Firmly in the token path. >> All that stuff is in the token path. >> I gota uh how do you think the events of of last week with Anthropic and DC
[21:38] update uh different countries on their own sovereign AI play? Because there's been there's been attempts It doesn't feel like, you know, many of the attempts have, you know, you can have a powered shell and you can have the best GPUs, but if you don't have the talent, it's really, it's going to be really hard to get to the frontier. And now, if you don't have massive usage, it'll also be really hard to get to the frontier. And so, do you think the ship has sailed? >> No. Well, look, look, I think every country is going to want to have their own sovereign AI strategy at a minimum
[22:08] for national defense. I think where that ends up is um I saw today that the EU had restricted exports of mrols. >> I think that's a joke. I think that's a meme. So people have gone so far on the MRL leashhat thing that that they're saying it's like mythos is distilled on it and it's breaking all the benchmarks. I think it's a good model, but I don't know that it's quite there yet. >> Yeah. >> But you can imagine that we get there
[22:38] for sure. >> Yeah. So I think what sovereign AI will look like for essentially all countries really other than the United States and and China, although I think China is going to fall further and further behind >> is just some sort of you do you use um you know you use one of these providers to do some reinforcement learning on your language, your culture, your values. >> Um you have a system prompt. um you do some supervised fine-tuning and you run that on whatever the best open source
[23:09] model is. I think that's where sovereign AI ends up. And then you run it in your own data centers so you feel like you know it's safe and whatever defense questions you're asking it or whatever forget questions whatever defense and intelligence um and maybe um you know policing activities your sovereign AI agents are doing you know 24 hours a day. You feel like they're safe. >> Yeah. So I think that's where sovereign AI ends up and I think you know there'll
[23:39] still be a big buildout for that but man sovereign AI at the frontier I don't see it. >> Yeah. What do you think the drivers are of the widening gap between Chinese open source models and American closed source models is? >> China's made a terrible mistake not you know taking it feels like the administration has been willing to let them buy H200s or P30s. >> Oh yeah. And I think they're on this like, you know, they have this crazy belief that, oh, you know, our own internal chips are good enough. They're
[24:09] not. >> Yeah. >> And then, you know, I think what's making them think that is that Chinese labs are very, very good at distillation. Somebody told me it only took 160,000 reasoning traces >> from 01 and 03 to get the original deepseek. You know, they're very clever at industrial scale distillation, running it through multiple APIs, >> pinging each API from, you know, we've all seen those iPhone farms in China. You know, they've got they've got the
[24:39] same thing for distillation and they've got, you know, 100,000 endpoints, distilling these models across every API available. They've gotten really really good at that, but man, all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier. And I think mythos is a side of things to come there. >> Yeah. Yeah. It seems like they're getting much better at locking down the reasoning traces, locking down the the espionage. It feels like uh back during the 01 days, the labs weren't even aware
[25:09] that distillation was so possible that that was uh that that was something that was such a such a potential threat. For sure. >> George, please. >> Is any part of you worried that you'll never see another another company like SpaceX? Um, >> worried is the wrong word. >> Not not worried, not worried, but but like you have to appreciate you have to appreciate that a moment like that you it's possible that you have an opportunity to invest in a company like that one time in your career. And thank
[25:40] God you did it because there's plenty of people that that had the opportunity and didn't. And uh >> well well I did own 15% of Nvidia when it was a sub2 billion market cap but I own 10% of Tesla when it was a sub$2 billion market cap. Um but um but SpaceX certainly it's been a special experience for me >> and I think there is a chance that it is you know one of the most important
[26:10] iconic companies of all time. I mean it already is. Uh maybe there's a chance it's the most. Um and I think in general it's just like I I kind of want to take a step back and like all this trillionaire hate from the left. It's like the you know there was a great post from my friend um Kevin Mafy saying like oh this is a bond villain who's decarbonizing the world. Last time I checked, people on the left
[26:40] >> were like the environment >> connecting u you know poor people in low-income countries, schools and hospitals to the internet at very low cost and he's helping blind people see today and you know interact with the world. That's a villain. Um and then just like there's so many parts of the SpaceX story like all of the you know bluecollar workers who've gotten super wealthy. um if you're opposed to data centers on Earth because the
[27:10] environment, well, SpaceX is your is your solution. So, um you know, there was another great post that just said, you know, the left won and they don't even appreciate it. The world's first first trillionaire, >> you know, has done more to kind of solve the environment than like everyone else on Earth combined. >> Y >> I saw there was another good one. It's like, yeah, Elon could solve world hunger by, you know, market selling every, you know, uh, piece of stock that he has and send the world into a global
[27:41] economic downturn, losing, you know, millions of millions of jobs in the process. >> Yeah. That uh, somebody said that Elon that the World Bank could solve hunger with five billion. And he and he said, "If you prove it to me, I'll do it." >> Yeah, of course. >> And turns out you can't solve world hunger for $5 billion. >> Yeah. Um, but yeah, SpaceX is certainly I would say, you know, SpaceX, Nvidia, Tesla, they've all been very special to me in in kind of a different way,
[28:11] but man, there is nothing like a rocket launch. And so, I just don't think as a visceral experience, I highly recommend everyone listening, you guys, if you have kids, take your kids to a lodge. You don't want to go with SpaceX. Everybody's always like, "Oh, get me the special tickets." You just literally you could go to a beach at Bokhica. Yeah. >> And be where the special SpaceX viewing area is. You could literally be closer to the lodge. Yeah. >> You could there's hotels near Vandenberg. Take your kids >> see a launch. It's super inspirational
[28:41] that humans are capable of this and it's much more visceral than you realize. >> You know, the sound, the blast of hot air, a lot of people cry. So go see a lodge. there will be a ne never I don't think a I'm pretty skeptical that there will be another um company that delivers a visceral experience like that and then listen if SpaceX puts a city on on the moon and then Mars and
[29:11] enables you know becomes the British East Indian company the solar system I think this will and those there's a lot of hard engineering that needs to happen to go into all that this will probably be the most important company um of certainly my lifetime of maybe maybe of all time. Um and so from that sense, I don't think there will ever be anything else like it. And yeah, I guess that is a little bit sad, but you know what? There's so much awesome stuff happening in the world that it's it's it's tough for me to get too down, man.
[29:41] >> I love it. >> Yeah. Hard hard to hard to be hard to be >> I have I have one last question. We have uh um you mentioned owning Nvidia sub two billion. What is the health of the sub2 billion uh market right now? Is there is there anything that you're excited about? >> Is there anything that the bottleneck bros haven't ran up? >> Haven't run up to pros have taken everything under two billion above. >> Maybe not even maybe not even uh like uh like public companies but private areas. I mean we're starting to see the knock-on effects of AI in bio and uh
[30:14] material science and like Neurolink was sub two billion for a long time, right? And so there are more like not in theme but accelerated by. So I don't know there's also just like >> SAS company >> there's loads of incredible venture companies you know startups under two billion. Yeah. >> Um like loads of them. Yeah. Um you know I I I I talked to them you know several times a week minimum. >> Yeah. in public, you know, until the
[30:44] bottleneck bros came along, until AI ca came along, there was not a lot happening in public small cap land. And by the way, on this like all these small caps, these bottlenecks, this AI, >> it does feel a little weird to me that you could have like a large following on social media, post about, you know, buy buy stock at something. >> Yeah. and then post about, you know, outline your thesis in a $35 million
[31:16] market cap company and send it up like a thousand%. Um, and there's a lot of that going on. And by the way, this not this is not like a serenity comment. I think that guy's that person >> is smart, >> but I mean there's there's there's there's a lot of shady stuff happening it feels like to me. >> Sure. >> Well, yeah. And it you look back at uh you know you were a young uh young analyst at at Fidelity right during the the doc you know the end of the the.com cycle and there was a lot of just like
[31:47] euphoria stuff happening and in the years that followed there was consequences right there there were people ultimately had to to face um >> sometimes civil penalties all sorts of different things companies went bankrupt there were all sorts of different uh you know perturbations in the market. And of course, we got a co we got a bunch of really enduring generational companies through that period, too. >> Although a lot of these accounts are anonymous and I'm sure they're logged into social media with a madeup email.
[32:17] >> Yeah. >> You know, gone through a VPN. And so >> I don't I don't know. We'll see. >> It is different than a research than a cellside research report that maybe goes a little bit too far, but there's still a whole compliance department around it. Uh we are in Yeah. uncharted territory. So, uh, everyone needs to stay safe out there and do your own research, I suppose. >> Yeah. >> Anyway, >> well, guys, man, this was super fun. >> This was great. Let's do it again soon. >> Come on more. >> Thank you so much. Anytime. Let's get the whole team on, too.
[32:47] >> Yeah. You know what? That's actually fun. >> Let's do that with the whole team. >> That' be amazing. >> Awesome. >> I would love it. Yeah. Yeah. You got a conference room with a with a nice wide angle camera. You can just have the whole crew there. That's great. >> Partner into a partner meeting. Exactly. Awesome. Great to hang with you. >> Have a great rest of your day. Thank you so much for coming on.
Resumen de investigación
- Baker califica el IPO de SpaceX como "perfect execution from start to finish" con un "20% pop" ejecutado por "Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley"; el mercado va a procesar la historia ahora quarter by quarter, con dos catalizadores near-term: velocidad de energización de gigawatts terrestres y tracción de "cursor being in, you know, half the Fortune 500".
- El alpha real está en el precio del cómputo: "50 billion a gigawatt on the Google deal" (tasa "at least two times higher than like average Neocloud pricing"), orden de SpaceX de "20% of the Reubins" y la math de cómputo orbital ("a gig on earth is 60 billion" vs "put a gig into space for 30 billion" vía Starship reusable).
- El "token path" se extiende a los extremos — Cloudflare con "$1.8 billion dollar with anthropic", GPUs en el edge y beachfront property como única expresión de tierra —; los "bottleneck bros" (caso Aimoto en WSJ) "is kind of nearing its end" y "the next game is what has enduring franchise value".
◆ El IPO de SpaceX y los banqueros
Baker describe el debut como "a round of applause for the banker... perfect execution from start to finish", con un "20% pop" atribuido a "Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley". La lectura: "like it would have been more dramatic if it had like popped up 70% and then went down 30 and then went up 50 and it was drama but it was just like perfect execution". Ahora el mercado procesará la historia quarter by quarter: "every quarter matters".
Una variable estructural poco apreciada: "10 over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO", lo que cambia el análisis convencional de "how much stock is going to come come to market" y de los "triple layer SPVS" especulativos. Baker recuerda además que los tenedores previos ya pudieron salir: "you've had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years, if you wanted to sell, you could have sold... in the second half of last year". Conclusión: "supply demand dynamics here are going to be very interesting".
◆ Drivers near-term: gigawatts terrestres y Cursor
Baker descarta la idea de que la tesis sea "as far out as you made it seem to be" — "I'm super excited for going to Mars and asteroid mining and a city and mass drivers on the moon... I just think there is there's much more tangible near-term drivers here". Identifica dos variables:
(1) Terrestrial compute. "How quickly can they bring on terrestrial compute... they monetize gigawatts at a higher rate than anyone else". El ancla cuantitativa: "they're doing 50 billion a gigawatt on the Google deal", una tasa "at least two times higher than like average Neocloud pricing". El mandato operativo: "if you can energize two, three, four gigawatts in the next year, that's a lot of revenue". De ahí la cola de seguimiento: "all eyes on Colossus 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, etc." y la broma "macro hard, macro harder, macro hardest to that name".
(2) Cursor. "Cursor being in, you know, half the Fortune 500 is interesting", especialmente porque "composer 2.5 after three weeks of, you know, RL and supervised fine-tuning Colossus 2 is kind of paro dominant". La pregunta abierta: "what's going to happen when it's applied to a bigger, better base model?".
◆ Tensión cloud vs modelo propio: el caso Anthropic
El acuerdo inicial con Anthropic sorprendió porque, conociendo a "Michael Truel", "he would have been very excited... That's my compute... get access only child around here". La mecánica: "every lab has had to go through this tension of like how much how much compute do we allocate to training versus inference". Baker lo lee como señal de confianza en la energización: "maybe the team at SpaceX is pretty confident in their ability to bring gigawatts online". El ancla hardware: "they've ordered 20% of the Reubins and the Reubin is an epic chip... kind of a more drop in replacement" para Blackwell, y "the Grock LPUs integrated at some point in the next six nine months". Aun así, existe "an out in the anthropic agreement" — el deal "could be short-term".
◆ Elon Web Services: ¿token factory o AWS completo?
Baker es tajante: "My thought is that being a token factory is more than enough for the next 5 to 10 years man. We are yeah we need more token factories... but we'll we'll see and if they need that stuff like they will build it." No replica la pila completa de AWS (databases, in-memory storage, cold storage).
◆ Otros hyperscalers: el caso Meta
Baker introduce el "EV to net PP&E" como métrica — "installed atoms on earth I think are going to appreciate in value... high asset value low obsolescence" (el "halo trade"). Bajo esa lente: "Meta's EV to net PP&E multiple is in an interesting place it just suggests that the market has an immense amount skepticism about their ability to monetize their own asset base". El catalizador ausente: "all we've really got out of management is this concept of personal super intelligence". El test: "it would be different if Meta AI was like at the top of the app store... there was like a killer feature within Instagram... people are shopping in Instagram now".
Sobre la disposición a pivotar: "Muse spark" fue un "upside surprise" que evocó "so you're saying there's a chance... if you're not first you're last" (Talladega Nights). El precedente: el giro Meta de finales de 2022 — "they went from saying 'we're not going to do that. we're gonna keep investing' to, you know, super focused on OPEX in a couple of days, man. So, it's like people they meet with Meta and they hear, 'oh, you know, we're not um we're not going to monetize our GPUs externally.' Well, I don't know, check back in a few hours."
El mecanismo: "what ultimately drives behavior for all these big cap companies like getting to AI... the stock price also really matters... if you don't keep those 10,000x engineers".
◆ End game y la dinámica de Codex
Baker percibe "endgame behavior": "OpenAI is cutting codeex pricing simply because coding, you know, coding tokens are so valuable and if you don't have enough of them, you may not be able to get into this RSI loop that that everyone is, you know, pushing for". Las tensiones OpenAI↔Anthropic y el hecho de que "enterprises just want to be on AWS" son síntomas de que "everybody thinks we're entering the end game... the endgame maybe here sooner than we think".
◆ Retail: "stupid is stupid does"
Baker revierte el tono despectivo: "people say retail in a porative way, and I would just say stupid is stupid does. And like you know we track you know there's all these indices of retail favorites and man they're up a lot and 25 and they're up a lot in 24". Conclusión: "retail is probably outperforming the overwhelming majority of professional money managers" y "they've been a more powerful force in the market over the last three and a half years than at any other time in my career including the year 2000 bubble". El contexto macro: "the hyperscalers are are now running um you know cash flow negative. You have the conflict in the Middle East, right? There's rebuilding efforts" — "this is kind of retail's moment now maybe more than ever". Matiz contrarian: "this is nothing like" la burbuja del 2000.
◆ El token path en los extremos
Edge / CDNs. "Every CDN has has this business... they signed... what was it a $1.8 billion dollar with anthropic". Pero "in terms of tokens consumed um on planet earth. These CDNs are delivering less than 1% of them and I mean maybe less than 10 basis points" — "they have a path towards being in the token path". El premium viene por latencia: "lesson from cerebrus is people are willing to pay for speed" y Matthew Prince hablaba de "collocating Nvidia servers on the edge specifically for the delivery of voice models because you want those to be very low latency".
Local / casa. Una startup respaldada por Nvidia puso "a four GPU server on the outside of your house... GPUs are going everywhere going in your bed eventually". Baker cierra el círculo con "the Tesla Power Wall is like a version of that for storing energy. It doesn't store compute, but it stores energy locally on the edge, off the grid".
Tierra / land. "I do think the bottleneck bros as they are called are this like bottleneck trade is kind of nearing its end". El caso testigo: "the Wall Street Journal had the story about this Japanese company that makes um I forget what they make... Aimoto... everybody's in this because they thought they were going to raise prices and then they just said, 'We're actually not going to raise prices. This is the wrong thing for us.'" — "welcome to Japan to all of the uh bottleneck people... everybody's, you know, having Claw and Run, what's the next bottleneck? The next game is what has enduring franchise value".
◆ Math del cómputo orbital
Baker presenta el caso: "once they can reuse Starship, I think the math for orbital compute becomes pretty compelling... it's just 60 billion to bring on a gig terrestrially, 25 is power and cooling, you don't need that in space". Lado espacial: "the right comp for that 35 billion of kind of you know IT equipment GPUs CPUs switches um you know memory storage um is is that 25 billion versus the cost of launch and one starship is reusable I think the cost of launch is 5 billion so that means you can put a gig into space for 30 billion and a gig on earth is 60 billion". Conclusión: "the 25 the power and cooling feels reasonably inflationary to me". Sobre la tierra: "is land in the token path... Maybe beachfront property, but that's about it... beachfront property is beachfront property, airplanes... really nice cars... Yep. Firmly in the token path".
◆ Soberanía de IA y la brecha China-US
Baker predice que "every country is going to want to have their own sovereign AI strategy at a minimum for national defense", pero "I do think China is going to fall further and further behind". El formato esperado fuera de US/China: "you use one of these providers to do some reinforcement learning on your language, your culture, your values... you have a system prompt... you do some supervised fine-tuning and you run that on whatever the best open source model is... so you feel like you know it's safe". La pulla europea: "I saw today that the EU had restricted exports of mrols... I think that's a joke. I think that's a meme... mythos is distilled on it and it's breaking all the benchmarks. I think it's a good model, but I don't know that it's quite there yet". Veredicto: "sovereign AI at the frontier I don't see it".
Sobre la brecha: "China's made a terrible mistake not... taking... H200s or P30s... they have this crazy belief that, oh, you know, our own internal chips are good enough. They're not". El arma competitiva china: "somebody told me it only took 160,000 reasoning traces from 01 and 03 to get the original deepseek... they've got, you know, 100,000 endpoints, distilling these models across every API available... they've gotten really really good at that, but man, all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier. And I think mythos is a side of things to come there". Contexto histórico: "back during the 01 days, the labs weren't even aware that distillation was so possible".
◆ Sub-$2B market: "bottleneck bros" y zona gris
Baker ancla con su track record: "I did own 15% of Nvidia when it was a sub2 billion market cap but I own 10% of Tesla when it was a sub$2 billion market cap". Sobre small caps hoy: "Neurolink was sub two billion for a long time, right? And so there are more like not in theme but accelerated by" — bio y material science. "Loads of incredible venture companies... startups under two billion". Pero la advertencia: "it does feel a little weird to me that you could have like a large following on social media, post about, you know, buy buy stock at something... outline your thesis in a $35 million market cap company and send it up like a thousand percent... there's a lot of that going on... there's a lot of shady stuff happening it feels like to me". La analogía: "look back at uh you know you were a young uh young analyst at at Fidelity right during the the doc you know the end of the the.com cycle and there was a lot of just like euphoria stuff happening and in the years that followed there was consequences". El cierre regulatorio: "a lot of these accounts are anonymous and I'm sure they're logged into social media with a madeup email... gone through a VPN... it is different than a research than a cellside research report that maybe goes a little bit too far, but there's still a whole compliance department around it. Uh we are in uncharted territory".
◆ Buscar el alpha
La tesis central visible en asignación de capital: Baker está largo SpaceX post-IPO por dos catalizadores near-term cuantificables (energización de GW y tracción de Cursor), no por la narrativa Mars/Moon. El alpha real está en el cómputo como commodity escaso — el acuerdo Google a $50B/gig re-rate el múltiplo frente a hyperscalers clásicos, y la math del cómputo orbital ($30B/gig en espacio) redefine el coste marginal a 5-10 años. El "token path" deja de ser slogan para ser una cola de extracción de renta.
- SpaceX (post-IPO). Ancla: "20% pop", "10 over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO". Mecanismo: supply/demand favorable por tenencia employee; drivers near-term son GW terrestres y Cursor, no Mars/Moon.
- Compute pricing como tesis. Ancla: "50 billion a gigawatt on the Google deal", "20% of the Reubins", "Grock LPUs integrated at some point in the next six nine months". Mecanismo: la tasa de monetización por GW es 2-3x Neocloud y crea ventaja frente a Meta/Azure capex.
- Orbital compute math. Ancla: "a gig on earth is 60 billion" vs "put a gig into space for 30 billion". Mecanismo: $25B de power/cooling "feels reasonably inflationary"; si Starship es reusable, cambia el floor de coste.
- Token path expansion. Ancla: "$1.8 billion dollar with anthropic" (Cloudflare), "a four GPU server on the outside of your house" (startup Nvidia-backed). Mecanismo: "they have a path towards being in the token path"; premium por latencia ("people are willing to pay for speed").
- Fin del bottleneck trade. Ancla: "Aimoto... 'We're actually not going to raise prices. This is the wrong thing for us'". Mecanismo: "the next game is what has enduring franchise value"; rotación fuera de land/land-substitutes.
- End game / RSI loop. Ancla: "OpenAI is cutting codeex pricing". Mecanismo: coding tokens稀缺; los que no entren al loop pierden; "everybody thinks we're entering the end game".
- Sub-$2B caution zone. Ancla: "Neurolink was sub two billion for a long time" vs "outline your thesis in a $35 million market cap company and send it up like a thousand percent". Mecanismo: "there's a lot of shady stuff happening"; "a lot of these accounts are anonymous... we are in uncharted territory".
Activo / señal / lectura
| Activo | Señal | Lectura |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (post-IPO) | "20% pop"; "10 over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO"; "perfect execution" | Supply/demand favorable por tenencia employee; drivers near-term son GW terrestres y Cursor, no Mars/Moon |
| Google (GOOGL) | "50 billion a gigawatt on the Google deal"; "at least two times higher than like average Neocloud pricing" | Tasa 2-3x Neocloud; "macro hardest" si la energización se retrasa |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | "15% of Nvidia when it was a sub2 billion market cap"; orden de "20% of the Reubins"; "Grock LPUs integrated at some point in the next six nine months" | Reubin = "epic chip... more drop in replacement" de Blackwell; combinación con Groq LPU acelera compute |
| Tesla (TSLA) | "10% of Tesla when it was a sub$2 billion market cap"; Powerwall como analogía edge storage | Vehículo histórico del guest; analogía de almacenamiento en el edge |
| Cloudflare (NET) | "$1.8 billion dollar with anthropic"; "Cloudflare stocks at all-time highs" | "Less than 1%" / "less than 10 basis points" de tokens globales pero premium por latencia; "path towards being in the token path" |
| Meta (META) | "EV to net PP&E multiple is in an interesting place"; "Muse spark" upside | Mercado escéptico de monetización; "personal super intelligence" sin killer feature; pivote histórico late 2022 ("check back in a few hours") |
| OpenAI | "cutting codeex pricing" | Comportamiento de "end game"; "RSI loop" dynamics; coding tokens稀缺 |
| Anthropic | Deal con SpaceX "with an out"; deal con Cloudflare $1.8B | Demuestra tensión train vs inference en cada lab |
| Cursor | "in half the Fortune 500"; "composer 2.5... paro dominant" en Colossus 2 | Variable near-term para SpaceX; depende de RL/SFT en base models más grandes |
| DeepSeek | "160,000 reasoning traces from 01 and 03" para original deepseek; "100,000 endpoints, distilling these models across every API available" | Distillation industrial-scale; gap se cierra si frontier labs paran de soltar modelos |
| Neurolink | "sub two billion for a long time" | Ejemplo "not in theme but accelerated by" AI; bio/material science como próxima frontera |
| Aimoto (Japón) | Historia en WSJ; "We're actually not going to raise prices. This is the wrong thing for us" | "Bottleneck bros" llegando a su fin; "welcome to Japan"; "the next game is what has enduring franchise value" |
Generado con algoritmo v2.1-anchor-first · modelo MiniMax-M3 · 2026-07-05T14:18:06Z