My Biggest Bitcoin Regret Ever

[0:00] An abundance of money, dollars, means that the scarcity of Bitcoin is more valuable. AI is an abundance technology. It is going to bring an abundance of dollars, it is going to bring an abundance of intelligence, it is going to bring an abundance of information. In a world of abundance, scarcity [snorts] becomes more valuable. So, I am bullish on Bitcoin. I am bullish on gold. I am bullish on land. I am bullish on scarce collectibles. We never talked about this on the podcast. What's going on, guys? Today we got a great conversation with Pomp.
[0:30] In this conversation, we talk about what's going on with Bitcoin, what one of my greatest regrets in the Bitcoin industry is. We also get into AI, what's going on with the Anthropic IPO, why exactly I am very distrustful of a certain group of people who are building a lot of the AI technology, what's going on with the robots. Pomp is scared of the kung fu robots. We'll get into that, too. And we talk about whether your portfolio is actually going to do better or worse going into the end of the year, and what exactly I think is so bullish about certain assets. All that and more in this conversation with Pomp. All right, guys. All right, guys. Pomp is
[1:00] back. Welcome. Thank you. I appreciate it. Our kids turned one. That means Pomp comes back. It's just a year. She's gone for a year. Now you're back. Go ahead. What questions do you have for >> I've missed the people. I think the people have missed me. But the first question is, what the hell's going on with Bitcoin? I leave, it drops, people are claiming it's over. Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, they're all saying it's dead. And it only went down under 80K. >> Well, we need people to say Bitcoin's going to zero. We need two sides to the
[1:30] market. And if When everyone says Bitcoin is going up, that means that it is consensus that it's going up, which means that there is much less of a return available because there's no mispricing in the market. But the louder that people are saying that it's going to zero, it's going down, it's over, whatever, you know, narrative they want to spin, that means that you get a disconnection between the fundamentals and the price. And that is when investors who have conviction are able to capitalize on the opportunity. So, every time I hear people saying that
[2:00] stuff, regardless of who it is, I I really like Jason, I like Chamath. Uh they they've both been incredibly kind to me over the years. Uh I don't agree with them that Bitcoin's going to zero or it's over, but they're smart guys, and maybe they're right. Who knows? >> to say, how do you know the bears are not right? >> They could be, but like that's the risk that you're taking. And so, when you get that dislocation between the fundamentals and uh and the narrative, then if you are correct, then you have conviction, and you are willing to have the courage to deploy capital into the asset, that's how you drive asymmetric return. Now, with that said, let's go
[2:31] and look at what are some of the fundamentals. Well, first and foremost is a lot of Bitcoin's value is derived from the security of the network. For years, go back, check the tape, look at the receipts, I have been saying people would ask, what is Bitcoin backed to buy? And I would always tell them, the single most valuable commodity in the world, computing power. And people are like, what do you mean computing power? Now, everyone's talking about computing power as one of the most valuable commodities in the world. And so, Bitcoin is backed by computing
[3:01] power. There's a scarcity of computing power in the world. People are literally scouring the earth and thinking about going to space to get more computing power. Bitcoin is the strongest computer network in the world, which means it's incredibly valuable. It is very secure. It's very decentralized. All of these components. And so, that's first and foremost is if you look at hash rate, hash rate is back to almost all-time highs, which is fascinating because the Bitcoin miners, many of them started to
[3:31] transition to become HPC or AI data centers. So, you took a bunch of the large players and basically took them offline. But, hash rate is coming back and almost back to all-time highs. My friend Will Clemente pointed that out. I thought that was a very uh uh important observation. Second thing, where is a net new buyer going to come from in order for price to continue to appreciate? Well, we know that the Bitcoin ETFs have done that. We know that individuals are still continuing to accumulate. But, now there is research coming out. I think it was Fidelity that
[4:02] put this out first is that the perpetual preferreds coming from strategy, strive, etc. are producing net new demand for Bitcoin. I think there's over 135,000 Bitcoin that have been purchased as part of the perpetual preferreds. Why is that important? Well, if you can now take 135,000 Bitcoin off the market and they go into these perpetual preferred vehicles, that is very similar to the ETFs. I think the ETF number something like 800,000 Bitcoin have gone into the ETFs. So, you have almost a million
[4:33] Bitcoin between the ETFs and the perpetual preferreds that have already been taken off the market. And then you have perpetual preferreds that are continuing to increase. Strive took, I think, 5 or 6,000 Bitcoin in the last week and went and purchased it via proceeds from the perpetual preferreds. And so, you say, "Okay, I have computing power and hash rate continued to increase. I have this narrative dislocation and I see a net new buyer in the market." Hey, man, I'm excited about Bitcoin. I'm not saying Bitcoin's going to a million. There's all kinds of crazy price
[5:04] predictions that people are throwing out there. I think Bitcoin goes to a million at some point. I just don't think it's going to happen next year, but I think that Bitcoin looks very attractive here because basically what you had is you had Bitcoin go from 125k down to, let's call it, 60k or so. So, a 50-ish percent drawdown. Great. Then guess what happened? It had this very violent puke, which usually marks the bottom of a bear market, and it has recovered back. And so, what you have is you have kind of confirmation that the bear market is likely over. If that's the case, from here back to all-time
[5:35] highs is about a 50% return. So, at what point is that going to happen? Is that going to happen in 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, whatever? But a 50% return from here going back to all-time highs. But then, if you look historically >> to hit the holidays. >> Then if you look at history, the fourth quarter tends to be very strong. If you look at the equity market, the fourth quarter tends to be very strong. But more importantly is the fourth quarter of midterms tend to be even stronger. And so, right now in this 80 to 85k
[6:05] range, what we're watching is a weakness. People are saying, "Oh, it's going to zero." All this stuff. Well, in the month of October, when you're going into midterms, usually there's a lot of concern about there being no certainty. Who's going to win? >> [snorts] >> Are the Democrats going to take Congress? Are they going to take the Senate? Can the Republicans defend it? What's going on with Trump? J.D. Vance is running around the country and he's doing all of these different, you know, speeches and rallies. Trump is campaigning. Which candidates are they going to back? Are the Democrats going to be strong enough? Can they exploit
[6:36] any of the mistakes the administra- It's all noise. So, what happens is people basically want certainty. As we get close to the midterms and we get certainty, all of a sudden people say, "Oh, nothing bad happened. Let me go keep investing my money." And they'll start pouring capital back into the equity market and into the Bitcoin market. And my guess is that going into the end of the year, you're going to see strength in both equities and Bitcoin, and we're going to end the year higher than where we are right now in both of those markets. So, it goes back to if you have fundamentals, if you have seasonality type-based stuff, and you have a very
[7:06] clear reason why the narrative has dislocated from those fundamentals, that's when you should be excited. And I think going back to the people calling it going to zero, all this stuff, hey, thank you. I appreciate all of that because it actually provides the opportunity. And if you look at, again, what have we been doing in the public company for the last couple of months? We have a lot of Bitcoin. We've been selling Bitcoin at NAV and buying back shares, which is us buying more exposure. We're cranking on the Bitcoin exposure for every shareholder. We're
[7:36] trying to get more Bitcoin exposure because I have a generally bullish uh view as to Bitcoin's future over the next 12 months or so. >> So, let me ask you this. Uh Bitget CEO Grace Chen says that Bitcoin could swing 30% in either direction in a month or two as the big AI IPOs hit. Why? >> Well, I think that anytime you have change in a market, there's always volatility. Volatility can work in both directions. Now, one of the questions that people have had historically is is
[8:08] AI sucking the air out of the room and capital is rotating towards AI and it's moving away from >> from the Bitcoin the Bitcoin market. >> [snorts] >> Now, I definitely think that there's been a lot of capital rotation. Specifically we mentioned you know the miners moving to HPC things like that. In my own investing, do I as aggressively buy Bitcoin every single day like I used to? No. But do I still want more more Bitcoin exposure month after month, year after year? Absolutely. And so I'm continuing
[8:38] to increase that exposure, but now when I get paid a dollar, maybe 100% of it doesn't go to Bitcoin. Maybe it's like 50/50 between Bitcoin and AI. >> is that because the risk profile has changed and also there's not as much upside on the Bitcoin trade? >> Yeah, I look at again I continue to say this and I think that people almost think that it's like some like trite you know phrase. I look at AI is offense, Bitcoin is defense. >> Mhm. >> I used to look at Bitcoin is offense. It was a thing that at you know a thousand bucks, three thousand bucks,
[9:09] what whatever. The bottom of the 2018 market as I've talked about plenty publicly. I looked at it as there is a generational wealth opportunity to buy an asset that had dropped 85% and I didn't think anything had changed about the asset. And I was like, thank you very much. 85% discount at the store. How much can I buy? And then I kept buying and kept buying and kept buying. That was wealth generation. I still think that Bitcoin can generate a lot of wealth, but it is going to do it in a much more linear fashion at the compared
[9:40] to the asymmetry that we used to see. And you just look, Bitcoin went from a thousand to twenty thousand in 2017. 20x. It then dropped 85%. And then it went from three thousand dollars to sixty nine thousand dollars. So if you go back to 2017 and you look at it went from a thousand to twenty thousand, dropped down to three thousand. Then it went from three thousand to sixty nine thousand, right? Then it dropped down to fifteen sixteen k. Then it went from there to 125k. The returns are compressing.
[10:10] >> Yeah. >> But who doesn't want to see an asset in 2 years go from 15, 16,000 to 125,000? Are we really going to complain? >> I I know I've said this before, but I've seen Bitcoin drop to 2K and it dropping to under 80K cannot scare me cuz I have perspective. >> Of course, but it's also Bitcoin is the risky it Bitcoin is the least risky that it has been in years right now in my opinion.
[10:40] Why? The Lindy effect, the longer it's around the more likely it is to persist. Hash rate, the adoption, the institutionalization and financialization of Bitcoin by Wall Street, the clear regulatory environment. And I could go through thing after thing after thing. So, if it is less risky than it was 5 or 10 years ago, you should expect a lower return going forward. By the way, though, lower return does not mean no return. Lower return just means it used to go up 100% a year, maybe it goes up 30% a year now on a compounded basis. Well, the stock
[11:12] market is going to do 10 to 15%, so you're going to outperform the stock market most likely with Bitcoin compared to equities. Doesn't mean that you don't want equities, it just means that maybe Bitcoin's going to outperform the indexes. And so, if you have core Bitcoin exposure plus you add in some of the AI stocks that you want exposure to or you want to make private investments that you think can outperform Bitcoin, that's how you got to put together a portfolio, but you also have to understand what is your risk profile and how do you want to put that portfolio together and where does Bitcoin fit into it? >> Yeah.
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[14:16] and how to avoid them before deploying capital. You can access it for free at simplemining.io/pomp. That's simplemining.io/pomp. Go check it out today. >> Um and also uh AI. Let's talk about AI. Anthropic filed at its S-1, uh which makes it poised to become the first massive AI company to go public. Um what do you think? What is that going to suck the air out of the room for Bitcoin or is that just going to
[14:46] >> No, I think that Bitcoin is going to be uh just fine. I actually think that the more successful that SpaceX SI I don't know if you know about them. SpaceX SI, uh Anthropic, OpenAI, all these companies, the more successful they are at AI, the higher Bitcoin's price will go. And a huge reason for it, I continue to talk about this. An abundance of money, dollars means that the scarcity of Bitcoin is more valuable. AI is an abundance technology. It is going to bring an abundance of dollars.
[15:17] It's going to bring an abundance of intelligence. It's going to bring an abundance of information. In a world of abundance, scarcity becomes more valuable. So, I am bullish on Bitcoin. I am bullish on gold. I am bullish on land. I am bullish on scarce collectibles. Land, productive land I think is going to be big, gold, etc. So, going back to Anthropic the number one most impressive thing about Anthropic to me is that it looks like they burned less than 10 billion dollars to generate what looks like it could be
[15:47] somewhere between 75 to 100 billion dollars of annual revenue. If that is true and those numbers, you know, people are trying to kind of piece it together. If those numbers end up being accurate incredible business. I think that they still have a lot of pressure coming from people wanting to own their own intelligence, people fine-tuning models, uh a lot of the personal agent stuff, people having all kinds of like uh model routers. There's a lot of headwinds. But just like game respect game, man. These guys built a big business and they did it in pretty short [clears throat]
[16:17] period of time. They've generated an immense amount of wealth for their investors and for the different employees at that business. You can say what you want about their perspective on working with the government. You can say that, you know, some of the people who are the leaders of that business, they're kind of wonky. They got weird thoughts, you know, the whole EA community thing is obviously something that people aren't super excited about when it comes to crypto. >> community? >> Effective altruism. You know, it's kind of the SBF kind of world, whatever. >> I I I thought that was weird that it had
[16:47] a resurgence when SBF was the poster boy for the industry and everybody was around about effective altruism. Then all that stuff happened. People were like, that was complete BS. And now it's coming back in again. People are taking it seriously. >> Because because a lot of the Because a lot of the Anthropic folks, that's the world they come from. That's how That's how Sam Bankman-Fried knew these people to make an investment. They were all part of the same community, right? And so you just look at it again. Like I'm not here to pass any judgment. I've actually gone A lot of people I think judge effective altruism. I forget
[17:19] the gentleman who wrote the book. There's a book that was written that basically explains the whole idea of effective altruism. I bought the book. So I guess I'm a financial supporter. >> [laughter] >> Right now when I read the book and look, there are some >> good in theory. >> There are some ideas that you're like, this is a good-hearted like, you know, hey, I understand what you're trying to accomplish here. I disagree with a lot of the components of it. I don't think it's like really how the real world works, but I can separate from things that are part of the effective altruism movement and say, hey, I like this
[17:49] stuff. I don't like this stuff. I think you guys are onto something here and I think you're wrong here. So it's like people just want to paint this broad brush type thing. So put EA stuff aside for a second. The big thing when it comes to Anthropic is ultimately going to be what are the crazy ideas they have around the technology? It's clear the technology works. It's incredible. Anyone who has used Claude Opus, like who any of this stuff, these guys nailed it. They got a great piece of
[18:19] technology. And they are scaling. But the concern that I think a lot of people have is like, "Yo, these guys got some wonky ideas. They're talking about the machines being sentient. There's rumors that they were trying to convince the Pope that the machines could have a soul. They're talking about they're going to take uh 20% or something or some percentage of their company they're going to like give it to the public." The second I hear stuff like that, I'm out. Put me on the record. The second I start hearing about >> Why? >> Let me explain how human nature works.
[18:50] It is very rare for one person to do something that is 100% done for the good of other people. It happens. Like I genuinely believe Michael Dell, who gave 5-plus billion dollars to the uh Invest America Trump account stuff, I do not see how he benefits from that. Maybe there's something I don't know, but I genuinely think that that is something where they're like, "Hey, we want to help the country. We want to help these children." It You're not giving it to an NGO that invites you to a gala. You're not like
[19:21] making friends. You're just giving money directly to individuals, which I think is the entire innovation of those Invest America accounts. These guys, they're not saying, "Let us take the equity and just give it to the children of America." Elon said that. Elon said he's going to take one SpaceX share and he's going to give it to every kid in America. That's a pretty cool thing cuz you're ripping out the NGOs and the nonprofits you're basically saying it's it's basically pun- public figure directly giving to people. The same way you give 20 bucks to a homeless person on the street, he's
[19:51] saying I'm going to give a SpaceX share to every child. That's cool. And Thubauville's saying something a little bit different. They're saying the public should have a stake in the company. Sounds good. But now they're going to take some of the shares and it's unclear exactly how many cuz they always make promises and who knows what actually gets put there. But they want to take it and they basically want to put it to the public benefit. But they're going to be in control of it. Well, that sounds a lot like power accumulation to me. >> Why? >> Well, >> Of course you're going to be in control of it. They own the company. >> Elon's not.
[20:21] Elon's going to take a share of SpaceX and give it to the kid. The kid can do whatever they want when they turn 18. He he's he's not hoarding it and saying, "Well, maybe I'll give you something, maybe I won't." He's he's just saying, "I'm just going to give you the share." He's done. >> So, what are they trying to do with the share? >> Unclear, which is why immediately my antenna goes up. Because when I hear people saying, "Oh, I have you know, I just want to help everybody else." Also, like yo, you think you think we're dumb? Do you think we're stupid? You're going to take 5 to 20% of your company, you're
[20:52] going to put it in this public beneficiary thing, and there's going to be no [ __ ] going on? Stop it. Who's in charge of it? Why do they get to make the decisions? How are you going to allocate the capital? How do we know that you're not going to use that for your personal benefit or for the company's benefit and actually not help people? So, if you really wanted Americans to have a stake, then I challenge Anthropic to take the shares and give it direct to the kids. Adults don't need your shares. We all can go buy our shares on the stock market just like everybody else. If you
[21:22] really think that you're going to build this massive company and you want to help people, take the shares and put it in the Invest America accounts. Because anything else introduces bureaucracy, potential corruption, potential [ __ ] And so, instead, if you really if this is genuinely a thing where you are saying, "We want to help people." Which by the way, maybe I'm wrong and that's actually how they're thinking about it. Then prove it with your actions, not your words. Take the shares and give it direct to the kids. Because Michael Dell
[21:52] did it, Elon Musk did it. Why isn't Anthropic doing it? >> I'm sure there's reasons. >> There might be, but like we should ask those questions. >> Of course. >> An investigative journalist should go figure that out. I'm not a journalist, I don't have that skill set, I don't have the temperament to do that. But that is a great question. Is why at the exact same moment that Elon Musk is taking 10-plus billion dollars, the largest philanthropic gift ever, and he's giving it direct to people with no NGO and no profit in between him and the person.
[22:23] Why is Anthropic not doing the same thing? They're claiming they're doing the same thing, but mechanically they're not. I got questions. >> Great. So, you published this tweet with your investing lesson. >> we get to my investing lessons, can you tell me about Buddy Shah? >> So, I wrote yesterday an article >> was going to ask you about that? >> not think um >> Tables have turned. >> about this man whose name appears on page 145 of the Anthropic S-1 filing. His name is
[22:54] Buddy Shah, and he is arguably one of the most powerful people at Anthropic. He is not on payroll. He does not own stock. He is prevented from buying any stock, and his whole purpose is he's the chair of the company's long-term benefit trust, and he basically helps oversee a trust that has the power Why are you smiling at me? >> Cuz I set y'all up. I I threw the softball up. Go ahead, tell me about Buddy Shah. >> [laughter] >> that has the power to appoint and remove
[23:28] any portion of the of Anthropic's board. So, my question is why give this man all this power? And my question in the article is or my statement, I guess, is what is worse than having an AI decide what it thinks is best for humanity? A man or another human who thinks he knows what's best for humanity. >> Prime example of [ __ ] >> Well, you We don't know They're try They're trying to stay >> It's impossible. It's impossible. No,
[23:59] no, it's impossible. >> in in in the article I say like even if you have no financial stake in the company, you can still make the wrong decision. You're influenced. You talk to people like It's It's not a guarantee. >> The second I hear he doesn't have equity, [ __ ] going on. The second I hear >> point is independence that he can't be swayed by having a financial incentive. >> Independent directors on boards in the public market have equity. They get paid in equity.
[24:29] >> How How independent are they? >> Because they're supposed to have skin in the game. How can you have the best interest of something if you don't have skin in the game? It's all a mirage. It's all smoke and mirrors. It is all like we are here from Anthropic to save you. >> You really don't like Anthropic. >> I don't [ __ ] need help. We Humanity is fine. Y'all don't have a moral high ground on what humanity needs. Think about how arrogant you have to be
[25:00] >> But I think they're No, I think they're addressing the fear that people have around these massive AI companies. >> Just because people have fear doesn't give you permission to capitalize on the fear. Guess what? I don't hear Mark Zuckerberg talking about I'm creating a board to tell y'all how AI is going to save humanity. >> that's a bad thing. Maybe he doesn't care. >> No. You know why? Cuz Mark Zuckerberg's a normal [ __ ] person who understands my job as a CEO of Meta is to make money
[25:32] for my shareholders. It is not to meddle in the future of humanity. >> here's the here's the problem with that. That's the problem with any of I understand, but that's the problem with this. It's like, okay, so they only care about the short-term financial benefits. >> That's their job. >> Where at Yeah, but at the expense of what is bad what could be bad for humanity. >> Name one company >> We haven't seen that happen yet. >> Hold on a second. No, no, no. Name one company that has used a new technology
[26:02] to do something where it led to profits for the company and was a net negative on society and it did not get corrected by the market. So, I can name a lot of companies who used a new thing. >> different. That's different because it did not get corrected by the market because it was an AI which could be sentient or have its own whatever robot army. I saw that kung fu robot coming out of China. [laughter] I was watching that. I was like, "Oh my god, how am I going to face off this thing? I got to go take some self-defense lessons." >> It goes back to Let's just a couple of examples from history.
[26:32] >> It's okay. >> Cigarette company, tobacco companies. >> that on my own time. Yeah. >> Tobacco companies, right? I think people generally would look at They They put profits above the health of people, right? Well, guess what ended up happening? Eventually, now everyone would have wished that it happened earlier, but eventually the market intervened. We had a you can't sell cigarettes to a certain age group. >> Regulation. >> The market is part Regulation is part of the market, of course. >> Well, but the >> The government is a market player. >> Okay, so why are you against the government putting regulations on some
[27:02] of these AI companies? >> I'm not against them putting regulations. What I'm saying is the government is going to figure out whatever. It's like crypto. I never said that the government shouldn't put regulation in place. I just said if you make stupid regulations, then other countries are going to not make stupid regulations, and you're going to lose the race. The same thing with tobacco companies is actually other countries were hyper aggressive, and America was much more individualistic, and we were slower to adopt some of this stuff, but eventually, I think we got to a good
[27:33] place. Is there's a ton of rules and regulations now around tobacco that it may have taken a long time. People definitely got sick, but like in what world are we coming at it from the perspective of dude, the individual never takes personal responsibility for smoking the cigarettes. Like that's like completely lost from the conversation. And so, it goes back to this idea that I'm not saying that the AI companies shouldn't be thinking about what is a positive, all this kind of stuff. What I
[28:03] am saying is you have two different groups of people, and I'll give you a good example. Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, uh the guys at Google, all these people. You don't hear any of this nonsense from them. These are real founders with real companies who have a track record of delivering. >> [snorts] >> What you are hearing is [ __ ] coming from people who literally think that they can play God. Good luck. Good luck. But I, as an individual, I'm entitled to
[28:33] my own opinion. I hear that stuff, the more I hear it, the less I trust them. And so far, if we look, what company sells software to the United States government and says, "You can't use it to go get people who are killing other people?" >> I don't know. >> Anthropic.
[29:03] That's the whole dustup. >> Well, >> while his competitors are more than happy to allow the United States government to make the [clears throat] decisions of how they use the software. So, it goes back to Am I saying that the government should just have free rein and do whatever they want? Absolutely not. But, what I am saying is that if you want, which is Anthropic's right, right? This is the beauty of America, is that you, as a private company, can say, "I'm not going to sell my software to the government." That's fine. But, again, the market competitiveness, if
[29:33] you don't do it, somebody else is going to do it. And if you're okay doing that, that's fine. But, it comes back to this idea of wanting your cake and eating it, too. We want to sell to the government so that our competitors can't, so we get that revenue and those contracts, but then we also want to be hyper, hyper prescriptive in what you can do with it. And so, the market force took over. The government said, "No. Kick rocks. We're just going to rip you out, and we'll go do a deal with somebody who actually wants to let us use the software." And so, the beauty of free markets, the beauty of capitalism, the beauty of
[30:03] America, is Anthropic is allowed to say whatever they want, do whatever they want. But, there's going to be consequences from the market. >> So, my question is, why should I not be afraid of killer robots? >> Well, let me ask this question. Do you trust Anthropic? >> I don't know enough about Anthropic. >> Okay, that's a cop-out answer. I ask everybody else, do you trust them? But, most people don't. >> but I, in general, don't trust private companies to look out for me, but that's >> Cuz cuz cuz you got common sense.
[30:33] >> But, that's a different thing of like, "Oh, we want to be careful, so that" >> That's not >> what they're saying. They're not saying we want to be careful. >> [laughter] >> Okay. Um Why should I not be afraid? >> being careful, too. But, they're not running around beating their chest talking about how they're going to save humanity. >> Um okay. >> Today's episode is brought to you by Abra. Bitcoin holders know the long game, but sometimes you want liquidity today or a way to pursue more Bitcoin over time. That's why Abra caught my attention. It offers two different ways
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[33:04] Fu killer robots? Cuz the way that they are marketed is they're going to be your bodyguard, but what if they come for me? >> Of course, but sure. Uh your car can also the brakes can stop working. The self-driving car can make the wrong turn. GPS could tell you to drive off a cliff. >> different. >> Sure, there's some differences, but there's also some similarities, right? It's the same thing like think of um >> But like this thing is smarter than me. >> AI is definitely smarter than us. >> I know. >> There might be other smart people who
[33:35] are not smarter than you. >> I mean. >> Me? You know, I got small brain. It is 100%. >> That's what I'm saying. So >> Well, like I just said I just said hey, it's smarter than me. Cool. I got that. Me and machines I'm on your team. Like >> But what if you're not? >> Huh? >> What if you're not? >> Then we'll deal with it. >> No, that's scary. For my anxious brain that doesn't like uncertainty I don't >> It's like saying like what if the robotic arm in the warehouse turns around and smacks the worker? Are we just not going to we're just not
[34:06] going to have robotic arms in the warehouse anymore? >> I don't know. It's just too much for my little brain to handle. >> Right? So like it goes back to we can play the what if game all day long. Right? Every single day when you buy a consumer packaged good and you ingest it, what if it was bad? What if it has salmonella? >> Wait, wait, wait, wait. >> Is that what it's called? >> Salmonella. >> What is it? >> What did you just say? >> Salmonella. >> Oh my god. >> Is that what it's called? >> The robots are definitely taking over.
[34:37] >> What is it? >> Salmonella. >> That's what I said. >> You said What did I say? What did you say? I don't know. That was crazy. >> Right? So, the the point is that we take risks every single day, but it just goes back to I can talk from my personal experience. AI Let just think of our life for a second. Let Let's have a personal conversation. >> Oh. >> AI probably had a very profound impact on our family
[35:07] >> Yes. >> in terms of our two children. For those that don't know our story, that we've talked about publicly, we had twin boys and during the pregnancy, we were told by a doctor that there was complications that most people would terminate the pregnancy. We We Plena used AI to confirm the fact that the doctor was wrong. Long story short. The second AI has made us significantly more productive. It has probably helped us make more money in our businesses. It has definitely given me back an incredible
[35:37] amount of time that I then can spend with my family. It also has done tons of things in terms of plan events for us to do find cool things to do >> I agree, but it's just Are we Are we enjoying all of that at the expense of something scary happening cuz we're feeding it all this information? >> We live in 2026. If you walk outside of our office and go one block there are probably 20 cameras that are
[36:07] going to film you in New York City. And you're worried about telling the AI I don't have enough toilet paper. Can you order me more? Like what? >> I'm always on top of the toilet paper. >> Right? Like just think about Just think about how crazy this sounds. You You You have You walk around with a tracker. Like Like there's GPS in your phone. >> Tell the people about the Amazon story. >> What Amazon store? >> The Amazon store. So, Anthony has like a thing about being tracked by tech. >> Oh. So,
[36:37] one of the first Amazon Go stores, you know, where >> Amazon Go. >> facial recognition, you you in, you don't and then you get your stuff and you walk out, and you don't pay. >> being like really cool to introduce Anthony to his first Amazon Go store. >> used to work out of uh Brookfield Place uh down in Lower Manhattan, and um that was one where one of the first Amazon Go stores was. And so, I went to pick her up after work one day, and uh we were walking around I I was uh on the phone in air quotes, and uh she was like, "Hey, I got to go get something from that store. Do you want
[37:07] to come in? It's the first, you know, Amazon Go store, or whatever." Or one of the first ones. And I was like, "No, no, no, I got to do this call." And uh she >> weird, cuz you could have just done the call in the store. >> went in, and uh and when she came back out, she said, "Um did you not go in there cuz you don't want them to scan your face?" And I said, "Of course. I didn't have a call. I just I just wasn't going in the store." But we were still like we we were dating for a while, but like I didn't want to like get into the whole like, "Yeah, the conspiracy, the government, whatever." >> said that there's 20 cameras pointed at your face. >> I'm not going in the store. I've never
[37:37] gone in an Amazon Go store. Bezos, good luck. Can't see me. Um but, yeah, correct. I walk outside the office, there's 20 cameras. But like, hey, do I want to live in New York City or not? So, it goes back to this idea of there are plenty of things that we should be scared of. By the way, I don't love the surveillance state. I don't love the fact that all of our data is everywhere. I don't love blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, whatever. Am I so unhappy, so worried, and so negatively affected by all that that I'm willing to go like homestead in Oklahoma and live off the grid? No.
[38:08] So, [snorts] guess what? I am actively making decision to participate in that. That's on me. That is an individual choice that I am making. >> If the kung fu robots come? >> If I choose to buy a kung fu robot as a bodyguard, which by the way sounds awesome, we'll talk about that later, how much it costs, and whether I should do it. But, if I choose to do that, and it goes rogue, I have nobody to blame but me. I'm the one who bought it and gave it keys to, you know, our place, or uh let it come with me to the office, or ride in the car. If it turned around and just slaps
[38:39] me, why I let it in the car? It's just like I'm a big believer that uh people like to worry about things. And when they worry about things, they try to find the craziest, most cockamamie thing ever. So, for example, all these people who keep running around saying AI's going to kill us. Okay, let's play a game. I am going to assume that you are correct that AI is going to kill us. And I ask them, "How will it happen?" I swear to you, the stories that I hear
[39:09] are like, "Well, see, the AI is going to hack into this pathogen lab, and there's going to be a super deadly pathogen whatever, and then they're going to let it escape. And when it escapes, it's going to get into the air stream or the jet stream. And then when it does that, it's going to go all through all the the world. It's going to kill all humans." And I say, "Okay, great. Um you're [ __ ] crazy." >> Why though? It could happen. >> Sure. And I could literally walk on the floor and the engineer could have made a mistake and a hole opens and I fall into
[39:40] the crust of the earth. Like, all kinds of crazy [ __ ] could happen. >> the AI um discussion, discourse is very different for people with anxiety versus [laughter] people without. >> Of course. By the way, I also understand that like I probably have a better understanding just cuz we work with this technology, you know, we're we're building a ton of proprietary AI when it comes to silvia.com, all this stuff. And so like I am closer to it than many others. And by the way, I don't make fun
[40:10] of the people who are worried about this stuff. I don't think that the people who are asking questions are wrong. I don't think that the people who don't want a data center in their backyard that they should be like mocked and ridiculed. I don't think that the people who have uh concerns, questions that are like, "Hey, let's make sure we understand this." I think all of that is very rational in the sense of, "Yeah, we probably want to understand this stuff. Yeah, we probably want to ask these questions." If the AI people are right, they should have good answers for many of these questions. If
[40:40] the people who are building data centers want to build them close to residential areas and the residents have questions or concerns, the data center people should have answers to those questions or concerns. If not, then move it to somewhere else. So, like you go through all of this and you say to yourself, it's not that the people are wrong or that they shouldn't be asking these questions, it's just that I have done enough work where I'm not worried about those things anymore. But, if people are worried, then it's on the companies who are building this stuff to go and educate them, to go and answer their questions. And so, if you
[41:10] bring it all back to Anthropic, I love the product. I think the people there are incredibly smart. I think it's an incredible business that they've built. All of that stuff is true. What I don't like is the like moralizing. I don't like the like we're going to save humanity. And I don't like the like we literally have a cabal of people that are smarter and have like deputized ourselves to now make decisions for humanity. I don't like any of that stuff. And I think that it's all a big
[41:40] charade and mirage that is really this like non-altruistic thing that is to accumulate the power and money. And so, again, most people would be like, oh, you hate Anthropic. No, I don't at all. Actually, I use Anthropic. I think that it's a fantastic product. But, I can separate out the product, the technology, the company from the [ __ ] By the way, just so people think that I'm being intellectually honest, let's take another company. I don't know. Um let's take uh SpaceX.
[42:10] >> I knew you were going to say that. >> Well, that that's like the other end of the spectrum, right? I think that there is a bunch of stuff that SpaceX does on a day-to-day basis that is incredible. Reusable rockets, Starlink internet, all this kind of stuff. There's also, and I think that actually, I actually think that Elon would say this himself, that he makes these Hey, here's the timeline. What people misunderstand about it, and took me a while to wrap my head around, is he puts out these timelines, but he expects it to be hit 50% of the time. Whereas, most people when they put out a
[42:40] timeline, people expect it to be hit 100% of the time. So, he probably didn't do a good job of communicating that to people, right? So, like there was [ __ ] associated with the the the SpaceX, all this kind of stuff, because people would hear these crazy things and it only get hit half the time or whatever. The same thing's happening here. You can't critique SpaceX or Tesla from a business perspective, at least I don't think you can. Ride in a Tesla. It's It's [ __ ] amazing. Look at it Optimus. It's amazing. Look at the reusable rockets. It's amazing. Look at Claude. Look at
[43:10] Opus. Look at all these They're amazing. But it's just like I think people have to separate the companies, the products, all this kind of stuff from like the [ __ ] surrounding these companies. And if you can do that, then what's likely to happen is you're a user of Anthropic products. You pay them money most likely. Like I'm supporting them. I I pay them a subscription every month. And you also probably are deeply looking at should I buy the IPO? So you're considering being a shareholder.
[43:41] But you still can hate all the [ __ ] >> Yeah, and I think the beauty of living in America. Not to make this patriotic, but it is to the whole point of like a democratic society is that you can love something and ask questions and criticize it in order to make it better. >> 100%. By the way, let's take it to another company, right? >> Oh, jeez. >> Let's go and look at for example uh Grindr is a great example, right? I know
[44:12] the CEO, George there. He's been on the podcast before. And if you think about that business, there are some people who come from the gay community. They buy Grindr stock to support a public company that's supporting gay people. There's other people who say morally, ethically, whatever, I don't want to be a shareholder. It's America, dude. You You can choose to allocate your capital to how you want, what you want, whatever, right? But then there's some people who say like, I am not going to take a stance on I like this, I don't like this. Like my job is to make money. That's also okay in America.
[44:42] >> Mhm. >> And so it's just like you you kind of extrapolate this out to the AI stuff and I think that everyone is It's not fun to constantly talk about these are great companies that make a lot of money. How many times can you write that headline? So what you have to do is you have to start to look for the second or third order thing to talk about, and it becomes the like, you know, some of the companies are giving you lots of fodder. They're giving you a lot to talk about because they keep saying crazy stuff. But also, I always go back to Elon when he hosted Saturday Night Live.
[45:12] My favorite part of his entire appearance was in the opening. He was like, "I'm trying to like settle on Mars. Did you think I'd be normal?" Like we kind of need these people to be a little crazy, a little out there, a little like, "Dude, you got a lot of, you know, this like kind of mirage bullshit." Because it also means that the the same person can go create this technology. And so it's not even that like I hold it against them. I don't like it. >> Mhm. >> But like I understand that that's what comes with the innovation, the the technology, you know, accelerating.
[45:42] >> And this reminds me of one of our friends recently. He was talking about this in terms of like personal relationships, but I think it applies in this uh sense as well. He said, kind of like somebody's superpower, the thing that drives them and creates the conditions for them to be ultra successful, can also be the thing that if they don't know how to stop across all areas of in their life, is also the thing that prevents them from other things. >> Well, of course. I mean, look, it's uh work-life balance is the one everyone always, you know, looks at as like it
[46:13] you can work your ass off, be super successful, and have a disastrous, you know, family life, whatever, right? So like that's kind of a a quintessential example. But if you go and you look at Let's say for example, um AI psychosis. >> [snorts] >> Right? One thing that we think a lot about as we're building uh Silvia is in New York, there's not a lot of AI psychosis. It's actually people are somewhat distrustful of the AI. So people are much less likely in New York City >> to have AI psychosis? What is that? >> Yeah. So in New York, people are much
[46:44] less likely to just like, "Oh, a new AI thing comes out. Let me hook it up to all my accounts. Let me hook it up to all my data." >> called AI psychosis. >> no, no, no, no, but I'm I'm just using an example. And so they're coming at it much more from a data privacy, uh risk mitigation, like there's a different mentality. In San Francisco, generally, people are basically like, "Oh, new AI product comes out? Here's my birth certificate. Here's my social security number." Like just they just hook up everything, right? >> what people did with Instinct when it first came out. >> Correct. It's just like and then they're like, "Oh, wow, I did give it access to a lot of stuff." But like I'm AI-pilled, right? I I I believe in AI, I understand
[47:15] the more context I give it like cuz they understand how the technology works, so they're much more likely to connect all this stuff. Now, the reason I I share, again, generalization of like New York versus SF, right? AI-skeptical a little bit versus AI uh kind of pilled is that AI-psychosis is when you take the AI-pilledness and you take it to the extreme. And now you're like, "Dude, no one's going to have have been in a human relationship anymore. We're all just going to love the AIs." >> Well, >> "Dude, AI, no one's going to work."
[47:45] >> Yeah, yeah, yeah. >> you're you're you're you're [ __ ] crazy. Like you're just off in la-la land at this point, right? And so you have to be careful that you don't over-rotate to the psychosis and you're just like literally lost your mind. What you want to be is you want to be a optimist without going crazy. >> I mean, it's the same with like the political people. >> Political people? Bitcoin? >> Bitcoin people. >> How many people over the years said, "Literally all other assets are going to
[48:15] be worthless and all of the money's going to move into Bitcoin and you're literally not going to touch cash. You're just going to hold Bitcoin." >> And I think some people were criticizing you for not having full-blown Bitcoin psychosis cuz you weren't willing to go to the >> Correct. One of my biggest regrets ever in the whole Bitcoin world, it's a stupid thing, but to me >> [snorts] >> is uh near the end of the 2021 bull market, I put the uh stupid laser eyes on um on uh Twitter. And >> I remember you didn't want to do it, but
[48:45] then you did it. >> I know. I was like, "This is stupid." Right? Cuz cuz cuz cuz it was very much I I I I was um uh very um hesitant of like this is like getting cultish. This is getting like like you get blinded. You can't think clearly when you tie your identity into something where you're like, I have to whatever. By the way, I wanted to believe. I It's awesome to be part of a cult. It's awesome to be, you know, with everybody all this stuff. It is very
[49:16] lonely to say, I am going to resist the human nature of wanting to be part of a tribe, and I'm going to try to clearly think and critically think, and I'm understanding an argument, but I'm not going to like subscribe wholeheartedly, blindly, religiously to it. And I told this story before. There's an individual who asked me to do a call. And literally, I mean, in hindsight, it was it was insane. He was like >> that call, and I remember how you felt after. >> He was like, you you don't have laser
[49:46] eyes on Twitter. >> And this is an influential person. It's not like some Joe off. >> I was like looking around. I was like, am I getting punked right now? This is what we're talking about? What the [ __ ] And he was like, it would mean a lot to everybody if you did it. >> Right. >> And me being a uh clown, coward, who in a moment of weakness, said, you know, I'll I'll I'll do one for the team. I'll Okay, I appreciate you asking me that. I'll go ahead and I'll do it. By the way, I tried really hard. I tweeted. I said, you know, laser eyes till 100k.
[50:18] Laser eyes till 100k. I tried. And then >> I forgot about that. >> As I sobered up from the 2021 insanity, I was like, what the [ __ ] am I doing with these goddamn laser eyes? And I wrote a whole piece, and I said, maybe the laser eyes blind you. >> Ooh. >> Can't see clearly if you got lasers on your eyes. >> [laughter] >> Right? >> this is where we end. It was a pleasure. >> Hold on. And so, the whole idea is can you subscribe to
[50:48] a point of view of the world, understand, believe in an asset cuz you've done the work, etc., without the psychosis. So, AI psychosis is a thing. Bitcoin psychosis definitely exists. There are There are people that I know who I love them because you need some of the crazy people cuz they push the the the the pace the edge. But you're also like, "Hey, their vision of the future I believe 30 40% of it." But then they go past that into crazy town. And so this idea that like
[51:19] there are literally people who believe that you are violating the ethos of Bitcoin if you hold cash. That's crazy. And so it just is like, "Okay, I want to 30 40% I'm in. But I want my feet on the ground, clear eyes, no lasers. AI girlfriend, I already got a wife, I'm good. Yeah, girlfriend. Oh. Yeah, the psychosis. They These guys are fine. These guys are crazy. They're like falling in love and with relationships
[51:49] with a piece of software. Like, dude >> It does just agree with everything you're saying. >> Dude, >> [laughter] >> snap out of it. Let's go. What are you doing, right? And then you you start to kind of understand that you see this pattern over and over and over again, whether it's AI, whether it's Bitcoin, right? All this By the way, there's going to be new technologies. Like, there's going to be I promise you there is somebody who's going to get space psychosis. They're going to be like, "Dude, we're all going to live in little capsules like the Jetsons, flying around in space. Then we're going to repopulate.
[52:20] And then on our way to Mars and this and >> I remember >> Maybe. >> Um when I was at Fortune I wrote something about a company and I said it's a very very fine line between and delusion. And sometimes you think you're just being ambitious about your company and what it could do that you kind of fall into delusion. >> Well, I would Maybe we disagree on this. I don't know if we've talked about it. >> You want you want the founders to be delusional. >> I think >> know. >> I think that well, I think that
[52:51] uh it is very hard to create things that change the world >> I agree. >> without being delusional. >> I agree, but >> there are limitations to that delusion. There's an extreme that then transitions from delusion to >> psychosis. >> Well, psychosis, but also people take it to the extreme and then they like again, I would argue like the EA mentality. Right? Again, I I read the book, right? So like is that the is that the Bible of
[53:21] EA? No, but I think it gave a pretty good understanding is the argument if I had to like summarize it is almost anything is on the playing field if it means that you can accumulate more resources to then do good in the world. So like by any means necessary, right? Is essentially the the argument is effective altruism. It's like if you are if you can go exploit sports gambling to make billions of dollars and then you're going to help the world, who cares that you exploited the sports
[53:53] gambling and on the other side are people who lost their life savings. Who cares that the dad who was drunk on Saturday night took the other side of the bet and you made a lot of money and he lost his family or lost his house. It's kind of like that gets brushed under the rug. It's like no, no, no, I as an EA was able to accumulate all these resources. I'm going to go help the world. By the way, you may go do good in the world. >> Hood example? >> But it's just like the world is complex. >> Oh, we're going to piss off a lot of people with this podcast. >> So I just I By the way, I don't think that this stuff is like
[54:23] crazy. You could say the same thing in the stock market. Right? It's like there's winners and losers in a trade. And so it just comes back to like the world is not black and white as people want it to be. And so I think that when you take a overlay of everything is good or bad, I just kind of like this is not my thing, right? >> I think that's why we get along. >> [snorts] >> All right. >> Where where can we send people to read the profile? >> readtheprofile.com >> All right. And what do you publish there? >> What do I publish?
[54:53] >> Yeah. >> I publish long-form profiles that people can read every week. Sometimes I write them, sometimes I curate them, and now I'm writing I launched something called the portrait which is a moment in time of mini profiles of the people making the headlines. >> All right. So, uh Saquon Barkley, Anthony Scaramucci, Jake and Logan Paul, Ryan Serhant. >> Cathy Wild. >> Cathy Wild, uh Kevin O'Leary, a bunch of people that you've written long-form profiles on. And then you're the one who
[55:23] found the Buddy Shaw. It's pretty It's actually pretty interesting that you of all people were able to find the one guy in the S-1 before anybody else that now everyone's talking about. Good job. >> Thanks. >> See you guys next time.