[00:01] hello four-year journey followers this is Bob Lucas it is June the 12th 2020 I hope you're doing well this is yet another installment of the four year journey videos and series I can't believe it's been a year and a half since the very first video time has flown by it seems and like it always does and you know in that period we've seen really massive moves and volatility and Bitcoin across the board we've seen 300% rallies in a short period of time
[00:32] we've seen 60 70 % declines we've seen multiple 30 % declines I've also heard from a lot of people that have lost a lot of their Bitcoin a lot of their capital they've tried to get some of the back and they're lost even more it hasn't been pretty for a lot of people out there I think a lot of people missed a lot of big moves but of course they were involved in a lot of the big declines in the market and that's part of the problem with trying to be an
[01:02] active trader when you really don't have the skill set for that for some people they do have the skill set and they could do really well but for the vast majority of people trading such a volatile asset is really not an easy thing to do it's really it's really for somebody that has a lot of experience trading such volatility and trading markets that it's going to do well and even then there's no guarantee of course but for everybody else hopefully for all of you who have followed this journey or a similar hollol story the year and a
[01:32] half has been I guess pleasant right because here we are sitting a year and a half later the market is up almost 3x bitcoins up 3x but more importantly you hopefully avoided these massive volatility swings in the market and set patiently and comfortably and if anything used sell-offs as an opportunity to add to your position I did a couple of times more recently of course with the March capitulation I found that was a really
[02:05] Aven taejun spot to add more exposure and I think in the long run that's gonna prove to be a good decision but my point is that when you can take a step back and remove yourself from the volatility remove yourself from the emotion that's associated with trading something like this and not look at as a get rich scheme but look at it as an investment for the longer term it gives you a sense of clarity on the market that people who are involved in a day to day basis don't
[02:35] get to appreciate so that's one of the major benefits of having a more longer-term Horrell type strategy where the goal is to take advantage of bitcoins appreciation in price hopefully of course over the longer duration of a four year cycle up to what should be a blow off like environment at some point possibly next year and that's the point where toddlers of a four year journey will get greedy and begin to take some
[03:07] of that profit and get rewarded for their patience over these years so that's the intro for this video the agenda for this for this video is as follows of course we're gonna cover the four year cycle a status update and then I'll try and sort of go through relatively quickly the remaining points these are questions that came up mostly during my request for feedback on what you want to hear in this video so I'm not gonna read them out it's on the screen there you can see I'll go over
[03:38] those some will be shortened and the others will be in depth but we'll cover those let's start with the current four-year cycle update so I thought I'd do this a little differently today than I have in previous videos I'm going to start out with a monthly view a long super long cycle view at the 16 year level and then condense it down to more of a daily daily chart view hopefully that'll give you a better understanding of this and also to avoid kind of repeating almost the same information to the last year and a half so looking here
[04:09] four boxes represent four different four year cycles I've gone through two and now in the third and here's the future one mm 23 through 227 that's a future for you cycle in all this will become one 16 year cycle when all of a sudden done 16 years important a lot of asset classes move in 16 year longer-term cycles and because now we have a pattern of four year cycles also matches of the having
[04:39] schedule as well even though they're not aligned four years is a typical cycle length in many other asset classes as well so when you have a four year break down the longer duration cycle from that point naturally becomes something divisible by that so a 16 year cycle also makes sense we see this quite a lot when to the third cycle that and if you believe in this massive uptrend if you believe that the current market cap it under two billion is not sufficient for
[05:12] any type of major long term top as I do then you still believe again as I do that we're in this longer-term secular bull market uptrend and that bull trend uptrend ends with a massive law of top that in theory would put this 2017 blow off top to shame and also this one which is a bigger bigger top percentage-wise than the previous one so you eventually end up with a big blow of top debt
[05:42] that concludes the bull or rising portion of a 16 year cycle so what you end up having is three cycles higher and then one cycle lower where typically the last low and the 16 years cycle low will actually come down and break below the third cycle low at that point and this becomes your real secular bear market which every asset class goes through and I can like I can say this confidently
[06:12] that eventually I think Bitcoin has to go through a secular bear market not something like this which I consider more to be cyclical in nature these are more corrections cyclical bear market Corrections in a secular bull market uptrend eventually we get a say in a bear market to go with that and that's probably going to correspond with some major government response some type of major on off board ramp restrictions
[06:42] placed by whether it's government central banks whoever whoever the players are there'll be some major attack that has an impact on Bitcoin in the future it won't kill it of course but it will cause it to move into one of these secular bear markets and by that I mean something that is more of a three year decline as opposed to these one year cyclical bear market declines that we've seen during the previous four year cycle so you can see the pattern here up for three years down up three years down
[07:13] for one year I expect something similar here where we go up to three years maybe even longer in this four year cycle then come down and then a quicker acceleration here to make way to set up for a secular bear market into the big sixteen year cycle load now it's not assured we're not sure that this right translated four year cycle going higher yet because we haven't exceeded the highest from the prior four year cycle in fact we haven't exceeded the 14,000
[07:43] high that we set early in this cycle so there is risk here still but the reason why I'm still confident is one I think bitcoins adoption is still there - I don't think the market cap warrants yet any type of secular bear market to occur here 3 I still believe in a 16 year longer trim cycle so I don't think at this point and it's 11 years of evolution it's too early for that secular bear market to unfold and for
[08:13] we've we've already seen a couple of cyclical bear markets we had the one coming down into the four year cycle low but this here as well has acted as a cyclical bear so it's been almost back-to-back there's broken by this surprise which was a surprise for most the surprise surge early in the cycle so as you can see 192 monthly bars in his four years they've got your 48 bars going across for the four years
[08:43] these boxes represents that red top's here correspond to a right translated cycle as you can see the red arrows appearing well past the midpoint that creates the right translation anything that's right translated typically means it goes up and the reason for that is simply that it has more time in a uptrend versus time in a downtrend so extends a reason that there's more likely that price will accelerate or will move higher over time and the same
[09:14] I expect to occur in this cycle here being a right translated cycle to the top right there however where the top occurs in a cycle is not dictated necessarily by the four-year cycle the top dictates the translation of the cycle so if this four-year cycle wants to move higher then you're going to find this top is going to occur in the second half of the cycle if we're looking for a top to occur early and to go into a secular trend then you're going to look
[09:44] at the top to occur to the left of the midpoint giving it more time to you know to unfold into a secular bear market what is more fixed in duration is the low the cycles are measured always from the low and the reason for that is the top here dictates the translation so if we start measuring cycles from a top standpoint and you get a situation where you have a left translated cycle then you're gonna have a duration short
[10:15] duration from one top to the next and that does not give you any consistency in cycle duration so we see in every asset class we see the tops occurring sometimes months apart and sometimes years apart or depending on a time frame you're looking at so if you're looking at a 60-day cycle or whether it's a one year cycle for your eight year cycle the point is when you compare cycle after cycle after cycle the duration between tops are basically you know they correspond to the overall trend on the
[10:47] higher time frame so if we have a higher time frame moving higher then you're gonna have these wider duration tops but then as you see a reversal the longer-term trends so if the long-term trends going high and then wants the reverse in a secular trend then you're gonna see tops occur much closer together as a result and that's how you get the translation in the cycle allowing it time to move lower so the anchor in every cycle is always the low the low to the low to the low is a process that is repeatable and typically
[11:20] will fall within a window now of course four years to the to the month is only a guide right a four year cycle can be you know three or four months earlier three or four months late it will vary on many factors but essentially the duration is relatively close within a certain range and the the clean of the trend that you see the cleaner of these cycles from duration standpoint will occur when we see reversals in a longer term trend that you may find that some of these
[11:50] lows will not be exactly the four-year cycle point point being here is that for example if we're looking for a major trend reversal on the 16 year cycle around the 2023 24 timeframe then it's possible that you see a shorter duration cycle right here giving a time for a shorter fast decline and then I move higher so that's just something to look out for in the future well the alternative is that the top occurs much later in the cycle giving it only just
[12:21] five or six months down as a sharp decline and then moving higher so you're still having a fixed sort of four year cycle length this is kind of similar if you go back and look at say at Nasdaq chart from the 1990s where you had in 1998 you had a massive drop over a short period of time and then you had this sort of V rocket up so you had a top in a cycle then you came down and you had another quick top and you form the top in 2000 before we had more of a secular bear market so you had this dot-com move
[12:53] to in 1998 to to a real big peak everybody thought that was it you had a correction then you had another move higher that was sharp and quick over only just a year and a half and you had this three year so you know Rudy severe bear market low or decline from 2000 to 2003 and that's kind of similar what I'm looking for here in Bitcoin in the future when it comes to the next big top and the next big secular bear market the other thing we don't know is how
[13:24] price responds between these major pivots in the cycle and that's where I think a lot of people kind of get caught up they're like oh you know you said it was going to do this or we said it was going to do that and the point is that when it comes to price in a cycle it it's pretty wide it's open to how it gets to a certain point or a certain pivot what I'm trying to illustrate more than anything else is the longer-term trend being higher and the major turning points the point where I want to be
[13:55] looking to add and the points where I'm looking to be getting out and you know I'm not necessarily focused on being right on a week-to-week basis or a month to month basis when really my goal are the big pivot points and I've been focusing from the beginning on these big pivot points and I've talked about the prize and I've used the word the prize often the prize being up here at this 150 to 200 thousand dollar level in the late 2021 timeframe maybe to 2022 as
[14:26] well this is what I'm positioned for so if I get a price projection wrong as I did kind of in this big move here to me it doesn't matter because the way I'm allocated from a risk and an investment standpoint doesn't reflect a move like that such as for example this big capitulation in March I wasn't positioned for that it didn't worry me therefore I didn't get out if anything I bought because of where we
[14:56] stood in the cycle this gave me confidence to buy into that as opposed to forcing me to panic and get out as opposed to also in this area here when the market hit 20,000 Starr declining for me that was a point to beginning out because I struck started breaking down and will deepen the four year cycle when you're early in the four year cycle and you've already made a run and you start seeing sell-offs like this for me those are
[15:26] accumulation of by the dip opportunities and that's what I use those for so what do I think it's going from here well look again caveat not nobody knows exactly how price unfolds but I believe we've had this this structure here has been different to the past and I think this has been troubling or difficult for many people to invest in and I think this has caused a lot of hardship for some people because they do have this mindset this longer-term blow-off in
[15:58] mind and they're trying to time it on the shorter timeframes and they're losing out and this big move here was a massive massive sucking of retail and a big trap and this bear market here has been in many ways worse than the one we saw in 17 and that's caused problems for a lot of people but right now I think this capitulation here ended the bear market we're now recovering and have recovered and we're seeing heavy accumulation in my opinion and we're now bumping up against that ten thousand to
[16:30] ten thousand five hundred error which is acting as significant resistance it's both of a very psychological point and there's a lot of resistance at that area and it's gonna take some more time perhaps maybe than a month maybe no two months before we eventually tested a few more times and I think once it gives way we won't be looking back and I know and that $10,000 level is very important because you see it all over social media so many people talking about hey you know we'll never see sub 10,000 again and then of course we do
[17:00] it's like an extremely psychological area even when I flip to a weekly chart for example you'll see here many of and these arrows represent the 60-day cycles many of the cycles are hitting up against his ten thousand to ten thousand five hundred dollar area we also had a sell-off at that area in the past and if you look at these candles these weekly candles we've only had ten weekly candles in this four-year cycle that have closed above ten thousand and eight of those ten within four or five hundred dollars of
[17:32] 10,000 and we've got another seven candles weekly candles that are closed within three or four hundred dollars on the low side of ten thousand so there's a lot of closes a lot of weekly candle closes at that $10,000 level so it's an extreme amount of resistance built up in that area we also see from this from a price action standpoint you know obviously we went up higher here and then this bear mark once we drop below that we're now starting to hit up against the underneath of this area so I think it needs a number a couple more
[18:03] maybe attempts at that level before we can break high but once we clear this area therefore I don't think we'll be looking back we're also looking at the four-year cycle we were too advanced to the point where we'll be almost at the midpoint of the cycle and it will be now time for the cycle to begin the the heavier accumulation and less of a selling as an allow the price to start to resume its uptrend it actually already has resumed its uptrend in my opinion as you can see we're about the
[18:34] 10 month moving average but it's gonna start to accelerate that process as you see in previous cycles so once you're done with the accumulation once you start discovering higher prices there's less resistance in that area there's more willingness from parties to start to get involved as you clear these psychological hurdles and then you start to start to build on that sort of snowball effect and they start to go higher so I think we're at a critical juncture right here where we're gonna be looking for more of the accumulation to start to snowball and once again once we
[19:04] clear that $10,000 range I believe it will be released price will release to the upside and there will be some other points around the 11-5 area and then of course 14 which was the high last year that will provide some resistance but I don't think it will be significant enough to hold back Bitcoin and the price for a for any sort of extended period of time so looking at the weekly right here what do I think is gonna happen again this is
[19:34] not a trading call for any of you this is just kind of an idea but what I actually would like to see or what I think this chart maybe even needs is a decline back into a July low so some more perhaps consolidation in this area maybe even in a quick surprise test up but then I moved lower into July I'd like to see that hit the eight thousand dollar range have an eight thousand handle but even preferably a seven handle would be just fine and I don't think causes any concern on a longer
[20:04] timeframe it also helps to sort of form a the inverse Head & Shoulders patent that's kind of developing here with a couple on this side ahead in the bottom here and a couple of cycle lows but needs that and then come back up and sort of test at ten thousand one more time maybe even two times and then break free once it does that I think there's a there's not as much resistance in this ten thousand five hundred to fourteen thousand range we may even pop right up to ten thousand four hundred comedown form the next cycle low in September come back up and again then this point
[20:36] like I said earlier price will unfold the way it's gonna unfold I'm not here to predict that but you can see the 60-day cycle is kind of forming 60-day cycle lows will serve as shake outs in a bull trend and as you saw if you go back and look at a two thousand sixteen and seventeen chart you have a nice big uptrend but when you sort of zoom in at the daily level you see 25 and 30 percent pull backs often and that's just Bitcoin has an extreme amount of volatility and once you see a nice sort
[21:07] of spike in a 60 day cycle you're gonna watch out for these 30 percent declines that will come rapidly as it makes its way higher okay so you will see probably every 60 days you will see a 20% decline - a 30% decline all the way as it makes its way up now where do I think it breaks all-time highs I don't think it breaks all times high for almost another year and perhaps probably not until mmm excuse me the April timeframe and that's that's what I've looked at since the
[21:37] beginning of these video series around the April timeframe of next year's where I believe it eventually it probably probably gets a lot of resistance that $20,000 level as well similar to what it did if you look back here we had some at the last high so if you go back to the four-year cycle high in November of 2013 once it came up to this area hit once came back up pierced through it came back down and then moved higher I think we will see something similar who knows how it
[22:07] unfolds it may be just one 60-day cycle but the point is that that's gonna be the last kind of major resistance at that $20,000 level of course another psychological point but of course it's also all-time highs once you break all the time highs then price will really begin to accelerate that's when you're gonna get the full retail mania come back you're gonna get folks who are involved in 17 you're gonna get all those hundreds of thousands of people that opened up coinbase accounts in 17 and never got a chance to fund them
[22:37] there's suddenly gonna come back and they're gonna do the same thing again they're gonna repeat the same mistake that they've made in 17 because their neighbors are gonna be making money and everyone's making money again of course it's the usual retail mania characteristics and behavior that you would expect once it makes that $20,000 level to move up to whatever that top is in the four-year cycle will be quick probably only over four to seven month period it typically works that way and
[23:07] as you can see from this chart here you've got sort of April timeframe being in this area right here then you've got just three or four months to go higher you saw it right here when it broke out it was just around six months to a top it broke out really in April and peak in December if we if it breaks out here in April again you're looking at you know possibly a peak in February who knows December again we don't know where those those tops will eventually occur but the point is that the final phase here from
[23:38] all-time highs to the top of the four-year cycle happen very very quickly it's a it's when we break that $20,000 level that we start to go on high for possible topping action and that's when we start to say okay as everybody's starting to come into the market with all this dumb money we've been accumulating in the 3,000 4,000 5,000 dollar range we're going to start to say I'm going to take some off the table even though it's early I'm gonna start to harvest my profits I'll harvest some
[24:08] of those profits early on so I don't feel the need to to sort of panic at 20 and 30% retracements don't forget a 30 percent retracement at the $50,000 level it's not pretty right if you're looking at so $10,000 declines in Bitcoin on the way up in that final phase it's gonna be difficult to hold a very big profitable position and watching Bitcoin drop $10,000 which would be just a little shaky out well not a little shake out but just to shake out in an uptrend the
[24:39] point is that if you can start to harvest some of those profits in that blower phase it's gonna allow you to hold through those $10,000 pullbacks I wouldn't suggest in that point adding but it's gonna allow you to hold to the eventual top where of course the goal is going to be to release and take profit on the larger portion of your position alright so the monthly how does it unfold one down July okay let's go even
[25:10] as low as if you look at these two candles here the bottom of the can was right here $6,000 level hey I'm fine and will not be panicked by a drop to $6,000 over the next month we can handle that but here's the point but test the first test is the April timeframe here's the breakout and then as you can see it's deepens rapidly at this point to a top okay and I've marked the top at 197 this chart again it's an arbitrary
[25:41] number I couldn't tell you what that tops gonna be it may be just as low as 50 or 60 hours and it may be as high as 250,000 I'm not here to give you an exact price prediction there's plenty of people on social media who want to give absolute numbers for a peak I don't want to do that I'm more focused again on time I'm looking at April for the blow for the breakout point I'm looking at sort of end of the next year for the peak that's my cue and then we're looking at that decline then into the bear market
[26:11] low and then like I said earlier another big peak sooner than we've seen in the past is set up that left translated cycle and then I think we can actually see a secular bear market unfold well we even get below this level we make multi-year lows perhaps we even get back to the peak of December of seventeen that sounds like a ridiculous claim coming from a price of save four hundred five hundred six hundred thousand dollars but if you look at the Nasdaq is just one perfect example back
[26:41] in 2000 it retraced length something like 90 percent of price so we can see really massive secular bear market declines in the future now that's of course for a video well into the future but just kind of giving you an idea of the longer-term structure that I see over 16 years cycle so this is what we're looking for we've been patient here for well over a year and it's helped it's really worked being patient now I think we're in that very very interesting phase where there isn't in
[27:13] theory again if we believe in this secular bull market uptrend there isn't much time left for Bitcoin to begin that real awareness phase leading into the retail phase and that's why I believe this accumulation phase is going to start to unlock higher prices and especially once we clear this this $10,000 area which is a lot of resistance so if we can get this pullback here into July come back up
[27:43] this is the point where if we cross above and we close a number of weeks of above that $10,500 area that's where I would probably join some of the social media talking heads in saying that sub $10,000 it's come and gone and not to be seen again but again ideally I'd like to see one more big pullback in there and then move higher and then break up so this is kind of the pattern similar here on the monthly same structure as we see it right here that follows previous structures
[28:13] not exactly but kind of in the same fashion it sets up a four year cycle trend and then we go up to a table at the weekly level how does that compare to what I showed a year ago or actually more than a year ago almost a year and three months ago so let's look at that picture okay so here's a screenshot from the four-year cycle video from early last year and this again was just a guide right this is kind of I gave you
[28:43] an idea of how it might unfold and I said back then that here's so that May 23 March April 2021 timeframe where I think we would get to the $20,000 level and start breaking out that would have just a short run to an all-time high and a peak in the four-year cycle but as you can see here I was kind of thinking would see a much more accumulation below that $6,000 level before kind of breaking up I'm really not showing his may so here's so the June timeframe
[29:13] where we are today I'm really only showing the $9,000 price point for the first time in April of 2020 right here so and then a peak here this line here corresponds with around 12,000 so we kind of exactly where I was thinking a you and three months ago that we may be at this point so this is the second point in the agenda and the questions I got quite a bit we still on track does
[29:43] it look the same well I would say looking at this that we are of course as I mentioned how we get to that point and how we got to this point differs but that's not the point the point is that the prize is up here and therefore we can also say that how how Bitcoin gets to a top will differ as well most likely but the point is again that we're looking at time so if I go back to this chart here we're now at this $9,500
[30:14] level again in this time frame and I'm outlining something like this well again we could we should not be surprised if Bitcoin runs and and takes a touch of $20,000 sooner or maybe it takes a longer path again and maybe it just you know scrapes along below $10,000 for the next four or five months before moving higher so multiple paths to a breakout this is just my preferred look at that and the main takeaway again remains that
[30:45] when we look at this and we zoom out we're looking at sort of a peak to be a right translated cycle some point towards the end of 2021 at a higher price that's how a position from an investment standpoint and when we allow price to differ from the expectation that allows us as well to be comfortable in our holding and our huddle strategy for the long term for that reason all right so hope that was helpful I hope that gives you an update on the
[31:16] four-year cycle on the status again just to summarize I think everything is pretty much on track and happy to be holding and comfortable with the way it is unfolding the next point was taking profits and taking profit areas look that's covered on the website four-year journey comm I have a spreadsheet there on positions entries and we're expect the next exit I'm going to take some profit probably in the twenty six or twenty thousand twenty eight thousand dollar area if we get there I'm gonna do that because if
[31:47] we get back above twenty thousand there's a slight chance that we have some massive sort of bull trap and that you know that that becomes sort of a peak unlikely but again serves two purposes one just take some banks and profit cover the cost of the initial investment with just a 10% reduction in allocation because we've done a 10x over price or maybe an 8x from the entry so taking some profit at the twenty six twenty twenty eight thousand dollar level allowing me to cover my investment
[32:18] cover my risk and then play with the house money as they say does that allows me then to sit more comfortably as price begins to go into more of a steep and uptrend and I want to have that you know urge to get out and take profit on any big pullback and then from there where the other profit targets will occur well most likely most likely occur at increments there may be the 1020 thousand dollar increments I don't know just yet a lot of its gonna depend on
[32:49] how the markets behaving at that time but I will take profits on the way up not on big 20% pullbacks I'll take profits where I see a significant you know overbought situation so for example in an uptrend if we see on the 60-day cycle level that we've seen a price above the Bollinger Bands for multiple days and you know we see maybe a very high RSI level that could be a point to take some profit and then be comfortable
[33:19] with that and then moved on so that's that's going to be an unfolding strategy that I will cover in future videos okay S&P correlation stocks look Bitcoin has been behaving like a risk asset for a little while there is definitely some correlation there I'm not a huge fan of of these temporary type cholerae correlations in in asset classes there are some asset classes that historically are very much correlated for for various
[33:51] technical reasons right whether it's a dollar in gold or other asset classes but you know Bitcoin has so many different characteristics whether it's sort of a risk trade you know a retail leverage tray whether it's a hedge store of value there are different times different narratives that will come into play for the coin so I don't see this correlation lasting for long and also correlations set up for a lot of complexity in how you view performance of an asset class so in general I tend
[34:23] to say that understanding price action for one asset class on its own it's difficult enough right why complicate it with adding in other correlations where you don't know what the correlated acid is gonna do as well if I ask you what's the S&P gonna do next year given all the uncertainty and given the environment that we have the answer is you don't know and I don't know so what good is it gonna do to me if I started trying correlate and try and determine
[34:55] where bitcoins gonna go based on a correlation to something else that has just as much uncertainty as Bitcoin does so I tend to stay away from that I find that it's been something that doesn't help and only adds to the uncertainty another liquidity event yeah we can have a no liquidity event I mean there's possibility that the covered situation comes back whether you're a believer in Cobra or not it's irrelevant right participants care about it consumers care about it not everybody
[35:26] but a good portion of the population does and it impacts their behaviors their consumption behaviors their spending behaviors and that has an impact on the markets and that's what we care about so there is definitely the possibility of another liquidity event but in general I like to say we have we've already had a liquidity event the Fed has stepped up central banks in general have stepped up and I don't think there's a risk of a liquidity event I think there's more of a risk of a bear market event and that's more of
[35:56] an orderly environment where we don't have a threat of insolvency but we have we just have a revaluation of of asset classes whether it's stocks or whatever else it is so in that case and we saw this in gold with youth out in 2008-2009 where it got caught up in the query event to begin with and then when stocks took a further dive gold acted more like a store of value in a risk in a hedge
[36:26] play and I think Bitcoin can do the same thing here I see no reason why not so another liquidity event could come I don't see a reason why Bitcoin necessarily at least for a intermediate timeframe can get caught up in that short term of course initially when there's a shock or a sell-off it could it could certainly get caught up in that we had a pretty big drop in the last two days in the stock market here and Bitcoin has relatively held up okay so that may be just a short-term example
[36:56] but I think it can withstand another liquidity event sf2 model this is this had to go on my agenda because it was just asked by so many people I gotta be honest with you I I haven't put in enough research to give you an opinion on that I know that price projections are similar but I think we're we probably differ is the longer-term view just going out maybe 10 15 20 years
[37:26] I don't think markets and asset classes just go up and up and up and up I think over time you're gonna get these more of these secular bull and bear cycles that occur so I think ultimately price may get to where those models are looking at but I don't think it's gonna be in the same type of price structure so I think that's where it differs on the mechanics of the model I really don't want to speculate I think I think value is more
[37:56] about demand it's not about supply the supply of Bitcoin is simply a characteristic and it's a characteristic of the network itself and what gives it value itself but once that's established and defined which has been from the beginning it's really what participants want to value in this asset class set so it's about the amount of capital in total that wants to be allocated that determines the overall market cap of an
[38:28] asset class like this and then you simply divide the amount of Bitcoin that's out there the supply into that to get the price so it's not so much the fact that we you know that we have fewer or limit the supply of this that's driving it that's just just one of the characteristics or one of the features that gives it its attraction lengthening cycles again I don't really want to talk too much about this it was covered in a previous video but it was asked by so many people I think I've also addressed
[38:58] this one pretty well on this video looking at those monthly cycles cycles are about duration to a low that's his way it's always been and the peaks and the cycles are not what's measured when it comes to a cycle duration those just determine the translation a longer term trend and then should I buy all coins look I think there's gonna be some all coins out there I don't know which ones that are gonna vastly outperformed Bitcoin over the next two years I don't doubt that it's not gonna be like 17 2017 in
[39:30] my opinion where you had a huge amount of coins just blow Bitcoin away that was a one-time deal that oh I see a boom in itself was specific to that four-year cycle we will get the whole narrative of all these blockchain projects and everything that they sold you on in those white papers look it's pretty much proven that none of these have any real adoption I know some firm believers in
[40:00] all coins that have a huge stack still believe that their technology is the best that there's a huge adoption there but there really isn't in a lot of these and I don't want people in the comments saying well this so-and-so coin has this and so on so coin is that yeah I know there's some that have some adoption there's some to have some great tech I just don't know if we as a society are ready for that type of mainstream adoption at this point in the evolution of this technology to warrant that but
[40:31] again some would do really well I don't know which horse would do well it's almost like saying here's a thousand horses and 20 of them are gonna be absolutely phenomenal and if you back one of those 20 right you're gonna get a 100 extra turn or a thousand extra turn but if you back one of the other sort of nine hundred of those they're basically gonna fall and you gonna have to put them asleep the odds aren't great at that point but what people are focusing on is the fact that 20 of those horses
[41:02] are gonna make extreme amounts of money and they're ignoring the fact that 900 of those 1 980 of those essentially gonna die whereas with Bitcoin I don't see that same dynamic right III think if those 20 horses are gonna provide that type of return then bitcoins going to be part of that equation so bitcoin is the superior by a factor of so much that
[41:36] factor of so much that it's a better risk reward opportunity than anything that's out there and I just don't see why anybody would want to risk that type of capital when bitcoins offering here potentially an extremely great opportunity with a pretty limited amount of risk involved so that's my view on all coins and that's the reason why I don't want to promote them here there were too many people already on YouTube and everywhere else promoting all coins I don't think most them know what
[42:07] they're talking about to be just be perfectly honest not singling anybody out and I think it's almost like playing a lottery in many ways now maybe a theorem is probably the one exception I do have a stack in etherium I think that will also be part of the future equation if we get to that top in the four-year cycle so I do have a small stack allocated to that I don't cover it again here because again this is about the Bitcoin opportunity and what we see here so I'm sticking to what I think is the
[42:39] far superior horse in this it's not gonna win but it's the one horse that's gonna make it to the end and that's what I'm more focused on I want to be there at the end with my capital intact and that's to me more important than having a chance of picking an absolute screamer okay so again that's the video I hope you've enjoyed it I don't have any referral links for you to click on or anything else if you just if you could
[43:09] hit the like button subscribe for any future video share this on social media that would be great leave a comment if you like I try to get to the the constructive comments and Charlie reply and again thank you I appreciate your listening and I wish you all the best take care