Policy Is The Plot: Why Bitcoin Thrives In Financial Respression

[0:01] Yo, welcome back to another episode of
[0:04] the Jack Malers Show. I am your host,
[0:07] Jack, and you are listening to what I
[0:10] like to call Mailbag Monday, episode 83.
[0:15] For those listening, nothing changes.
[0:17] For those watching this on their own
[0:19] time, nothing changes. For those of you
[0:21] that join me live, um I'm obviously not
[0:23] in my empty closet. I'm not in Chicago.
[0:26] I'm on the other side of the world. And
[0:28] so for time zone reasons and all sorts
[0:30] of stuff, I had to pre-record this one.
[0:33] Let's see, what time is it? It is
[0:36] 9:21 a.m. in Chicago as I'm talking to
[0:39] you guys right now. So recording it in
[0:42] the morning of US hours. I will upload
[0:45] it as it premieres as if it were a
[0:48] normal live stream. But for those that
[0:50] join live that enjoy the live sessions,
[0:52] I apologize for that. So, this will be a
[0:54] normal episode, one long rant from me, a
[0:57] little update on striking 21 and uh no
[1:00] Q&A today because uh I'm hanging out
[1:02] alone on this balcony uh behind or in
[1:05] front of, excuse me, the seat. Cool.
[1:08] Okay. Um without further ado, let's get
[1:11] started. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm
[1:13] talking to you guys at a Bitcoin price
[1:14] of 114,820.
[1:19] That puts Bitcoin's market cap at $2.29
[1:21] 29 trillion US.
[1:24] Our all-time high remains at $124,400.
[1:29] That was set on August 14th, 2025, so
[1:33] about a month ago. We're currently 7 and
[1:36] a half%ish
[1:37] off of that all-time high. Uh I find it
[1:42] a little funny the price action, you
[1:45] know, Bitcoin's made higher highs in the
[1:47] month of August and lower lows in the
[1:49] month of August. September so far looks
[1:51] generally pretty good. This time last
[1:53] year, the Bitcoin price was about half
[1:56] or a little less than what it is today.
[1:58] So, Bitcoin's up about 100% since this
[2:01] point last year
[2:03] and everyone's pissed and everyone's
[2:05] freaking out. Um, just a reminder, stay
[2:08] humble, stack sats. It's the best
[2:10] performing asset in the world that you
[2:12] own. Patience is virtue. And, uh, touch
[2:15] some grass, touch the sea behind me. I
[2:19] mean, this thing is a monster. I think
[2:21] we're gonna have a massive Q4, which
[2:23] I'll get into in a second. But, uh, I
[2:25] don't know. Every time I start these
[2:27] episodes, I start with what the price
[2:29] is, and people are so wound up. And the
[2:32] price I'm reading looks pretty good.
[2:35] $115,000 Bitcoin. I'll take it. Uh, for
[2:39] those of you that time stamp in block
[2:41] height, I respect the [ __ ] out of you.
[2:43] It's amazing. I'm talking to you guys at
[2:45] Bitcoin block height 914,813.
[2:51] Awesome. Okay, the title of my rant
[2:54] today is policy is the plot why Bitcoin
[2:58] thrives in financial repression.
[3:01] So the theme for today is that we're
[3:04] seeing a lot of things that are
[3:05] weakening the dollar. We're seeing a lot
[3:07] of policy that plans to debase the
[3:10] dollar, debase our debt. And often times
[3:13] people are viewing this as a crisis, as
[3:17] a mistake, as something that needs to be
[3:19] fixed. And I think we've finally reached
[3:22] the point in our fiscal journey as the
[3:25] United States of America, as the Federal
[3:26] Reserve, as the fiat regime as we know
[3:28] it, where that's actually policy. That's
[3:31] why it's policy is the plot. Is that a
[3:33] weaker dollar? People should get used to
[3:35] that.
[3:37] A fiscal dominant Federal Reserve.
[3:39] People should get used to that. Debasing
[3:42] the debt, people should get used to
[3:43] that. Neutral reserve assets being
[3:47] remonetized in gold or monetized in
[3:51] Bitcoin. People should start getting
[3:53] used to that. And I think Bitcoin is
[3:55] going to really, really thrive, not only
[3:57] in the long term, but I expect a really
[4:00] bullish Bitcoin Q4 for a lot of reasons.
[4:02] So, first let's discuss policy as the
[4:05] plot. So, this tweet I thought was spot
[4:08] on the money. Wanted to open up the rant
[4:10] with it. It reads, "This is a real time
[4:13] Mara Lago accord in my view. The
[4:16] strategy of letting global yields rise
[4:18] relative to US yields is central to
[4:21] weakening the dollar. What some see as a
[4:23] market shift, I see as policy, a clear
[4:27] move toward dollar devaluation. the
[4:29] implications extend further, especially
[4:32] for emerging markets, which I believe
[4:34] stand to benefit significantly from this
[4:36] environment. So, for those that are
[4:39] longtime listeners, we've been saying
[4:41] this for as long as this show's been
[4:43] around. The only way out is through
[4:46] debasing the dollar. You cannot raise
[4:48] taxes. You have to tax the populace
[4:52] through inflation.
[4:54] And a sneaky way to devalue the dollar
[4:56] is to allow global yields to rise
[5:00] relative to US yields. Okay? When US
[5:03] yields are strong, the dollar is strong.
[5:06] When the US yields are lower, people
[5:08] will sell the dollar for the euro, for
[5:10] the Swiss Frank, for the Japanese yen,
[5:12] for the British pound if they're getting
[5:15] better fixed income yields. And so the
[5:18] US allowing global yields to rise
[5:22] relative to its own is a way to weaken
[5:26] the dollar. And I'm talking about uh
[5:28] Europe, so Germany, France, Australia,
[5:32] [ __ ] Japanese yield. So across the board
[5:36] and as the tweet said, I I fundamentally
[5:39] do not believe that this is a mistake. I
[5:43] don't think that this is a crisis, at
[5:45] least one that isn't known. This is
[5:47] policy. And policy meaning we're
[5:51] deciding to do this. The United States
[5:53] of America, we are allowing the dollar
[5:57] to get weak to lessen its role when it
[6:01] comes to world reserve. And we've talked
[6:03] about on the show plenty of times.
[6:05] There's a difference between the world
[6:06] reserve currency and world reserve
[6:08] assets.
[6:10] And the United States cares deeply about
[6:13] the dollar still being the unit of
[6:16] account, how we price things globally
[6:19] and the medium of exchange. They want
[6:21] oil trade in dollars, which we'll get to
[6:23] in a second. They like the fact that
[6:26] stable coins are pr proliferating
[6:27] throughout the world. They like that.
[6:30] But as far as world reserve asset,
[6:33] how people store and save wealth, time,
[6:37] energy
[6:39] in this fiat era, it's been the US
[6:41] dollar, it's been US treasuries.
[6:45] Those days are over and the United
[6:46] States is, you know, very slowly
[6:48] starting to admit that fate and this is
[6:51] becoming policy. So let's take a look at
[6:55] domestic stress cracks. So what's
[6:58] happening inside the United States of
[6:59] America? We're showing significant signs
[7:02] of trouble of stress. We are cracking
[7:05] internally and this is causing a lot of
[7:08] the policy that we're seeing. Sherwin
[7:11] Williams suspends 401k matching amid
[7:14] sales. So Sherwin Williams is an
[7:17] interesting company because it's
[7:18] unbreakable. At least it was perceived
[7:20] to be as such. super solid Midwestern
[7:26] business that has survived everything
[7:30] survi. It has not ever gone down without
[7:32] with a crisis. It's not overinded. It's
[7:35] not overleveraged. It's a very sound
[7:38] fundamental business.
[7:40] Now, the press release read or excuse
[7:42] me, the news article read, "Sherin
[7:44] Williams announced plans to temporarily
[7:46] suspend the company's matching
[7:47] contributions to employees 401k plans,
[7:50] citing weak sales amid economic and
[7:52] tariff headwinds. In an internal
[7:54] communication obtained by Cleveland.com,
[7:57] CEO Heidi G. Pets attributed the
[7:59] decision to several factors, including
[8:01] high mortgage rates and have pushed
[8:03] housing demand to near historic lows, an
[8:06] inflation that has reduced DIY demand
[8:08] for three consecutive years. Tariff
[8:12] policies have also decreased industrial
[8:14] demand and increased costs for the paint
[8:17] and coating manufacturer. pets lit
[8:19] letter stated Sherwin Williams is not
[8:22] immune from these conditions which have
[8:24] lasted longer and been more impactful
[8:26] than anticipated. Unfortunately,
[8:29] customer demand remains soft and in some
[8:31] areas it's getting worse. The suspension
[8:34] which goes into effect October 1st
[8:37] affects the company's current policy of
[8:39] matching 100% of the first 6% of
[8:42] eligible employees 401k contributions.
[8:45] The company implemented similar
[8:47] suspensions during the 2009 financial
[8:49] crisis and 2020 COVID pandemic,
[8:52] eventually restoring full matching as
[8:54] conditions improved. The CEO said
[8:56] Sherwin Williams intends to do the same
[8:58] in this case, but did not share a
[9:00] potential timeline for when full
[9:02] matching would be restored. Sherwin
[9:04] Williams has already undertaken what
[9:05] pets described as disciplined,
[9:07] responsible, and aggressive cost savings
[9:09] measures, including reducing thirdparty
[9:11] spending, simplifying operations,
[9:13] delaying new hires, and restructuring
[9:15] global assets. Okay, there's a lot to
[9:19] take away from this news. The big thing
[9:22] that I want you guys to understand is
[9:24] we're there's two economies, okay? And
[9:28] this is really the story of the wealth
[9:30] gap in the United States and a lot of
[9:32] the
[9:34] vitrial, anger, stress, and divide that
[9:38] at least as an American I can speak to
[9:40] that a lot of us are experiencing.
[9:44] What happens is when we're debasing the
[9:46] dollar
[9:48] that causes inflation and particularly
[9:51] in assets and particularly in scarce
[9:55] desirable assets meaning the real estate
[9:58] on the water, the real estate on the
[10:00] beach, the top floor of the building in
[10:02] Manhattan goes up more than the abundant
[10:07] real estate that no one really cares
[10:08] that much about that doesn't have that
[10:10] much of a scarcity value. You can maybe
[10:12] create a bunch more homes in the Chicago
[10:14] land area, but you can't create a bunch
[10:17] more homes on the water because there's
[10:19] a scarcity element to that land, right?
[10:22] Same thing with gold. Same thing with
[10:23] Bitcoin. And so what we've seen is Wall
[10:27] Street or just, you know, how would you
[10:30] say asset holders, the folks that
[10:32] actually own scarce desirable goods,
[10:35] they're getting incredibly wealthy as
[10:37] time goes on. People misunderstand that
[10:40] having
[10:42] uh interest rates or having you know Fed
[10:46] set rates at 4 and a.5%. That's actually
[10:49] very stimulative because the United
[10:51] States is paying such a high bill on its
[10:55] interest costs and though that money is
[10:57] going back into the economy. So people
[10:59] that own a ton of tea bills, a ton of
[11:04] short duration US debt, they're getting
[11:06] paid out a ton of money and they're
[11:09] going yaching and they're buying real
[11:10] estate and they're traveling and they're
[11:12] buying Bitcoin and they're buying gold.
[11:14] Now, the other side of the world or the
[11:16] other side of this coin, these people
[11:19] are struggling because if you're living
[11:21] paycheck to paycheck and you don't own a
[11:23] home yet, you don't own one Bitcoin yet,
[11:26] you don't own a good gold position yet,
[11:28] you don't own these scarce, desirable
[11:30] assets that you're either consuming in
[11:33] homes or a car or you're saving in
[11:36] Bitcoin and gold. These things are
[11:38] inflating away from you. So, they're
[11:39] getting harder and harder to acquire as
[11:42] the story plays on. And so the people
[11:44] that don't own these things are getting
[11:46] poorer every single day in purchasing
[11:50] power terms in their ability to acquire
[11:52] these things. And the people that do own
[11:54] these things are getting exponentially
[11:56] wealthier and not necessarily doing a
[11:59] lot of work per se. Right? And so this
[12:03] in my opinion causes the divide, the
[12:06] anger, the tension in society.
[12:10] the ability for someone to work so hard,
[12:12] sacrifice and do everything right and
[12:14] still have a life that they don't feel
[12:16] is worth living.
[12:18] And what we're seeing is there's two
[12:20] economies here. The Wall Street economy,
[12:24] the Larry Finins of the world, they're
[12:26] killing it. Breaking records with their
[12:28] ETF. They own a lot of Bitcoin. They own
[12:30] a lot of assets. Their Kagger on every
[12:32] single portfolio is through the roof.
[12:35] They own a lot of T bills. They're
[12:36] getting paid 4 and a.5% 5% to sit in
[12:41] this short US debt. That's this is
[12:44] financing their mortgage, their private
[12:47] planes, their yachts. But the Sherwin
[12:50] Williams customer, the do-it-yourself
[12:52] paint your house customer, the new home
[12:55] buyer customer, what Sherwin Williams is
[12:58] saying is we're all getting destroyed.
[13:00] Our business is down tremendously. Sales
[13:02] are down. And that's because middle to
[13:04] lower America is getting crushed. Is
[13:06] getting crushed. And the only time
[13:09] Sherwin Williams did this 2009 and 2020.
[13:13] 2009 in 2020. So it's it's an
[13:16] interesting idea. Are we in a recession?
[13:17] No, we're not in a recession
[13:18] technically, but it depends who you're
[13:21] talking about. We shouldn't look at
[13:23] America as this one big economy anymore.
[13:26] There's two economies. Okay. So this
[13:29] from the Wall Street Journal. The middle
[13:31] class vibe has shifted from secure to
[13:33] squeezed. After months of tracking
[13:35] high-income earners positive economic
[13:37] outlook, America's middle inome
[13:39] households appear to be losing
[13:42] confidence. Let's take a look. For the
[13:44] American middle class, it has been a
[13:46] summer of cooling confidence. Consumer
[13:48] sentiment dropped nearly 6% in August
[13:50] after trending up in June and July.
[13:52] According to a closely watched index
[13:54] from the un University of Michigan,
[13:56] pessimism about the job market increased
[13:59] with more people surveyed saying the
[14:01] expected their income to decline.
[14:03] According to polling done by think tank
[14:05] in the conference board, the middle
[14:07] class generally considered to include
[14:09] households making roughly 53,000 to
[14:11] $161,000 a year is playing an outsized
[14:15] role in the warning of or the waning,
[14:17] excuse me, of optimism. After months of
[14:19] tracking high-income earners increased
[14:21] confidence in their economy, households
[14:23] making between $50,000 and $100,000 made
[14:25] an abrupt about face in June. They now
[14:28] more closely resemble lowincome earners
[14:30] glooier views. According to surveys done
[14:33] by morning consult, a data intelligence
[14:35] firm. There was a period of time briefly
[14:37] where the middle-income consumer looked
[14:39] like they were going to be dragged up by
[14:41] all that was going well in the world,
[14:43] said John Leer, chief economist at
[14:45] Morning Consult. Then things fell off a
[14:48] cliff. Evidence of a squeeze middle
[14:50] class is mounting. Several CEOs across
[14:52] the dining, retail, fashion, and airline
[14:54] industries have said their middle class
[14:56] customers are increasingly strapped even
[14:58] as high earners keep on buying. And this
[15:00] is it, guys. And I've said many times
[15:03] before, you know, fiat, this fiat
[15:06] regime, this fiat era has decimated the
[15:09] middle class in the United States of
[15:11] America. What do I mean by that? It's
[15:14] really simple. You either own assets and
[15:17] are protected and are benefiting from
[15:20] debasement and destruction of the
[15:22] currency or you don't and that's it.
[15:26] In a prosperous society, there is a
[15:29] middle class. Let me explain it to you
[15:31] guys this way. If the third floor is the
[15:33] top floor, the penthouse floor, the
[15:35] Larry Frink floor, the Wall Street
[15:37] floor, the elite floor, and the first
[15:39] floor is non-asset holders paycheck to
[15:42] paycheck. No matter how hard you work,
[15:44] if housing is is inflating at 20% a
[15:47] year, you have to be getting a 21% raise
[15:49] every single year to just be making
[15:51] marginal progress towards owning a home,
[15:54] right?
[15:57] And there is no second floor. So you
[16:00] have the top floor and the third floor.
[16:02] The first floor is the bottom floor. If
[16:04] there's no second floor, the third floor
[16:06] people can't get to the first floor.
[16:08] Elite asset holders can't become poor.
[16:11] All they do is sit on their assets.
[16:14] They're not doing any proof of work for
[16:15] society. They're not doing [ __ ] all
[16:19] and they're getting rich.
[16:21] And the first floor people can't get to
[16:23] the third floor.
[16:26] They're working as hard as they can.
[16:28] They're getting degrees. They're working
[16:30] two jobs. They're sacrificing parenting
[16:32] their children so that both parents have
[16:35] income. They're saving in high yield
[16:38] savings accounts. They're not getting
[16:41] close to getting to the third floor no
[16:43] matter what. That's a very destructive
[16:46] society. That's a pain society. That's
[16:48] two different economies.
[16:51] Larry think loves getting the yield he's
[16:54] getting on tea bills and watching
[16:55] Bitcoin go from 20,000 to 115,000. He's
[16:58] swimming in it.
[17:00] Now, Bitcoin's unique because it's the
[17:02] only thing all of us can buy and benefit
[17:05] from. Not all of us can get fancy real
[17:08] estate that outperforms inflation, but
[17:11] all of us can get Bitcoin. That'd be my
[17:13] message to the first floor. But to bring
[17:14] it back to the point, a healthy society
[17:16] needs a second floor.
[17:19] Having no middle class is very
[17:21] destructive.
[17:22] And what ends up happening is the rich
[17:25] get richer and smaller. The third floor
[17:27] is not nearly as big as the first floor.
[17:29] The first floor houses like 70 80% of
[17:32] the population. The first floor is the
[17:35] minority, the wealthy minority. And
[17:38] that's what we're seeing here. That's
[17:40] what we're seeing here. And it happens
[17:43] because when your job is to export the
[17:46] currency, be the world reserve currency.
[17:48] You don't have jobs for these people.
[17:52] The way to get rich in America is to be
[17:55] a financeier.
[17:56] Wall Street, finance,
[17:59] trading, hedge funds. You're not
[18:02] actually making real [ __ ] You're not
[18:04] actually providing tangible things to
[18:06] the people around you. All of the
[18:08] manufacturing jobs, they're in China.
[18:12] Apple doesn't want to make the iPhone in
[18:13] Manhattan. Rent in Manhattan's $5,000 a
[18:17] month. Apple's margins would be crushed.
[18:19] Stock would go to zero. The iPhone's
[18:22] made in whatever Shishuan or some place
[18:25] in rural China.
[18:28] And so when your job is to export the
[18:29] currency, you're also exporting jobs.
[18:31] You're also exporting the middle class
[18:33] and you're creating a division of you
[18:35] their own assets and you don't. And this
[18:38] was such a rigged game before Bitcoin.
[18:40] Before Bitcoin, none of us on the first
[18:43] floor could own anything that the third
[18:45] floor owned.
[18:47] Nothing.
[18:49] Now we get Bitcoin. Bottoms up movement.
[18:53] Bottoms up movement. So some of the
[18:56] charts that were referenced, here's US
[18:58] consumer sentiment across the income
[18:59] levels. So, income over 100 grand a
[19:02] year, it's great. Income 50 to 100
[19:06] grand, not great. Income under 50 grand,
[19:10] even worse. And so, you guys can start
[19:12] to see the division in the trends here.
[19:14] If you're making enough money, if you
[19:16] can afford things on the third floor,
[19:18] you're fine. Now, what I would want to
[19:20] add to this, obviously the data doesn't
[19:22] exist, is Bitcoiner sentiment.
[19:25] Because it doesn't matter how much money
[19:27] you're making, whether you're making
[19:29] under 50 grand, 50 to 100 grand, over
[19:32] 100 grand. If you found Bitcoin, you
[19:36] understand Bitcoin. You've lowered your
[19:38] time preference. You earn more money
[19:41] than you spend, which allows you to
[19:44] save. You produce more value for the
[19:46] world than you consume, which allows you
[19:48] to save, and you save it in Bitcoin, and
[19:51] you've lowered your time preference. I
[19:53] would say sentiment is through the roof.
[19:56] You're getting 50 to 60 60% kagger every
[19:59] year for the last 10 years. And that's
[20:03] the escape. Bitcoin is that exit door,
[20:06] guys. It is that exit door. The New York
[20:08] uh what what journal was this? Wall
[20:10] Street Journal. Uh they referenced the
[20:13] uh University of Michigan data. So this
[20:16] is this is the tweet that shows the
[20:17] data. Yumish prelim September consumer
[20:19] sentiment falls to 55.4 4 which
[20:22] estimates had it at 58. Not good. And
[20:25] the point here is stagflation is
[20:27] hammering the middle class. This reading
[20:29] is sub208.
[20:31] So we are getting middle class consumer
[20:33] sentiment readings that are below the
[20:37] '08 financial crisis guys. So are we in
[20:41] a recession? Are we in a crisis? Do we
[20:42] have problems? Depends who you're
[20:44] talking about. Bitcoiners have escaped.
[20:46] They found the exit door. All of you
[20:48] listening to this, we're on the boat on
[20:51] our way out of the sinking Titanic,
[20:56] we have hope.
[20:58] We have a hard scarce asset that nobody
[21:01] can take from us, that nobody can print
[21:02] on us, no one can dilute our share in
[21:05] the 21 million. [ __ ] that.
[21:09] But people that have not found this
[21:11] show, have not found Bitcoin, have not
[21:14] downloaded Strike, have not set up the
[21:15] DCA sentiment is below 2008.
[21:22] Americans face increase in health
[21:24] insurance costs in 15 years. The pain
[21:26] will keep coming. And so when you wonder
[21:28] why does Trump why does Bessant want
[21:30] rates down so bad, there's a lot of
[21:32] reasons. One of the reasons is the
[21:34] country is struggling mightily.
[21:38] Absolutely.
[21:40] They're going to have to let inflation
[21:42] go just to get the economy off its feet.
[21:45] Now, thi this I thought was fascinating.
[21:49] A third of US states could already be in
[21:52] a recession because I was looking for
[21:55] data that didn't look at a recession
[21:58] just with everyone included with these
[22:01] [ __ ] definitions and these [ __ ]
[22:03] metrics. Everybody knows not to trust a
[22:07] technical recession. A bunch of
[22:09] nonsense.
[22:11] And this said 33% of US states are
[22:14] already in a recession. Monday's
[22:16] analytics finds that states accounting
[22:18] for one-third of US uh GDP are in or at
[22:21] high risk of recession. On the other
[22:23] hand, California, Texas, and New York
[22:25] are holding steady, helping stabilize
[22:28] the national economy. And this is it,
[22:30] guys. Look at the middle of America.
[22:32] Look at Illinois where I live. Crushed,
[22:36] decimated. It's yellow, orange, and red
[22:38] in the middle of the country.
[22:41] That is the middle class. That is what
[22:44] is now the rust belt. The rust belt is
[22:46] rusty because all of those jobs in
[22:48] manufacturing is in China. In 1971, when
[22:52] we said, "We're not going to obey the
[22:55] laws of mother nature. We're not going
[22:57] to live by the laws of physics. We're
[22:59] not going to live in the real world. are
[23:00] going to print time and energy out of
[23:02] thin air,
[23:04] force people to use it through violence,
[23:06] and take on the role of exporting the
[23:08] world reserve currency and importing
[23:11] real stuff.
[23:13] What do you do? You you the the
[23:18] edges of the country become tremendously
[23:21] wealthy. California, Silicon Valley, New
[23:24] York, Wall Street, those are the
[23:26] winners. The losers are everybody else.
[23:30] How did Trump win the populist vote? How
[23:34] did he win? How did he do that? You
[23:37] don't understand how much of the United
[23:40] States is struggling.
[23:43] This is two different economies. This is
[23:46] what it looks like when you want to be
[23:48] the world reserve currency and you don't
[23:50] use neutral assets. Neutral assets that
[23:52] no one can print, that are bound to the
[23:54] laws of physics, that obey mother
[23:56] nature.
[23:59] No country. Listen, people say, "Oh,
[24:02] you're American. You're so lucky." In
[24:04] many ways, we are. But in many ways,
[24:06] we're not. Okay? Being the world reserve
[24:10] currency is a disease. Triffin's dilemma
[24:12] is real.
[24:14] And none of these things scale. None of
[24:16] these things last
[24:18] because they're not real.
[24:21] They have to come to an end. And they're
[24:23] coming to an end right now. This is a
[24:26] chart from Luke.
[24:28] This shows US consumer confidence
[24:32] over stocks
[24:35] S&P and the NASDAQ. What you're seeing
[24:38] is usually US consumer confidence
[24:42] trended with the stock market. And what
[24:45] that tells you and what that shows you
[24:47] is there's been this kind of like
[24:49] [ __ ] myth
[24:52] this this misty
[24:54] like pitch from the US government.
[24:58] They've been saying look at the stock
[25:01] market. Stock market's all-time highs.
[25:03] You guys are killing it. Everyone's
[25:05] savings accounts going up, right? Your
[25:07] 401k killing it. And everyone believed
[25:10] that [ __ ] Everyone believed that [ __ ]
[25:15] Not anymore. That's what this chart
[25:16] shows. If you look at the far right, the
[25:18] stock market's going up. US consumer
[25:21] confidence is going down. The system is
[25:24] breaking. Nobody is buying that anymore.
[25:29] Inflation matters too much or
[25:31] stagflation matters too much. People are
[25:34] losing purchasing power. You cannot keep
[25:38] lying to them. Oh, don't worry about
[25:40] purchasing power or inflation. Look at
[25:42] your Nvidia stock. No,
[25:45] no. Gold has outperformed the stock
[25:48] market since the divorce of the gold
[25:50] standard. You're better off just holding
[25:53] gold than investing in any of this
[25:55] garbage.
[25:59] So, the this chart tells me the gig is
[26:03] up.
[26:05] US consumer confidence is down despite
[26:07] an all-time high stock market. You watch
[26:10] Scott Bessant go on, well, you know, we
[26:12] uh if you take a look at the stock
[26:14] market, the Trump administration's done
[26:16] an incredible job. Yeah, but nobody
[26:18] cares about that anymore.
[26:20] Nobody cares about that. There's too
[26:22] much pain. Next chapter, liquidity
[26:25] mountain and fiscal super cycle.
[26:28] Now, in the month of August, the US
[26:31] government collected $344 billion.
[26:35] Just one problem. $344 billion. That's
[26:37] great, right? If you annualize that out,
[26:40] that's a ton of money. Killing it. They
[26:42] spent almost $700 billion.
[26:46] So our deficit in August was $345
[26:52] billion. If you annualize that out, our
[26:55] deficit would be over three trillion,
[26:57] almost $4 trillion a year.
[27:04] Guys, this is policy. Again, people look
[27:08] at this and say, "This is a mistake.
[27:10] This is a crisis. This is Putin's fault.
[27:12] This is the war's fault. This is China's
[27:13] fault." No. I I I need to tell you, this
[27:16] is policy.
[27:18] This is policy decisions. They are
[27:20] purposefully making these decisions.
[27:23] They're going to try and grow their way
[27:24] out. They're going to run it hot.
[27:25] They're going to let inflation run.
[27:28] Real rates negative. Debase, debase,
[27:30] debase. Bitcoin is going to win. It's
[27:34] the exit door. It's all of our ways out.
[27:37] The middle of America, that yellow, that
[27:40] orange, that red that's living in a
[27:42] recession, that middle to lower class,
[27:44] there's no longer a middle class. If you
[27:46] don't have the right assets, you're the
[27:47] lower class. It doesn't matter anymore.
[27:50] You have to get yourself some Bitcoin.
[27:52] It's the only ticket out that is sold to
[27:56] all of us.
[27:58] Great. Larry Frink adopted Bitcoin later
[28:01] than than me and he found his way out. I
[28:04] wasn't I wasn't given the opportunities
[28:06] Larry Larry Frink was given.
[28:10] I'm telling you, Bitcoin is the only
[28:13] ticket available for sale to everybody
[28:16] to get out.
[28:20] If you're listening to this podcast and
[28:22] you're a top financeier on Wall Street,
[28:24] good for you. Good for you. You don't
[28:27] have to listen to the rest of the
[28:28] episode. You got it, bro. You figured it
[28:30] out. Good for you. If you're not,
[28:35] your way out is Bitcoin.
[28:39] This is policy. These are purposeful
[28:41] decisions.
[28:44] I'll put it to you another way. Their
[28:46] only way out is Bitcoin.
[28:49] Gold and Bitcoin are absorbing all the
[28:51] liquidity and constantly making new
[28:53] all-time highs and performing the best
[28:55] because they have to. The dollar has to
[28:59] go down. something else has to go up. So
[29:03] their only way out is Bitcoin. Now they
[29:06] don't think about it that way. They
[29:07] think about it as their only way down is
[29:08] debasing the dollar, debasing the debt,
[29:10] and effectively defaulting through
[29:11] inflation. A soft long default.
[29:18] But the sooner you find the exit door,
[29:20] the better you'll be. There's now 7.5
[29:24] trillion dollars in money market funds.
[29:26] And this is just the level of liquidity
[29:28] that Bitcoin is going to see soon. When
[29:30] rates start to come down, this capital
[29:33] needs to find a new home, needs to find
[29:36] returns.
[29:38] The amount of money that is going to
[29:41] flow into assets that needs to find a
[29:44] bonds are getting destroyed.
[29:47] Real rates are negative and will
[29:49] continue to be. We haven't even started
[29:52] cutting rates yet. The amount of capital
[29:54] will be immense.
[29:56] This is Bitcoin over TLT over
[29:58] treasuries. Yummy,
[30:02] guys. Like, and look, here's the thing.
[30:05] You look at these charts. I've been in
[30:07] Bitcoin since 2013. I watched Bitcoin go
[30:10] from $50 to $1,300. And then Mount Gox
[30:14] gets hacked, Silk Road got busted, all
[30:16] this [ __ ] happened back then. And then
[30:18] it went all the way down to 200. And the
[30:20] chart looked insane. like the hockey
[30:22] stick up and the fall down looked crazy.
[30:25] Now it went from 50 to 1300 to 250. Then
[30:28] it went to 20,000. I was like, "Oh my
[30:31] god, I thought $1,300 was a lot for a
[30:33] Bitcoin. Holy crap."
[30:36] And then it went from 20,000 to 2,000 or
[30:39] whatever, 3,000. You see these little
[30:41] blips down here? Every single bigger run
[30:46] ends up looking like a little blip. And
[30:48] you can see since 2020, I mean,
[30:50] Bitcoin's been ripping the face off of
[30:53] TLT since co everything broke in 2020.
[30:57] Now, this is gold over TLT. Look at
[30:59] this. Relatively stable until 2020.
[31:03] My goodness. And this is the stock
[31:05] market. Now, gold in the stock market
[31:07] looked the same over TLT. Everything
[31:10] broke in 2020. In 2020, a lot of [ __ ]
[31:13] broke. Now, Bitcoin is just a beast of
[31:16] its own.
[31:17] It's it's the pin that popped the
[31:19] balloon. But I mean here from Reuters
[31:23] Ray Dalio last week, gold is a shield
[31:26] for US market risk. He suggests 10 to
[31:29] 15% of your portfolio should be in gold.
[31:32] Now I don't own any gold because I own
[31:35] the better version of gold. I own
[31:37] Bitcoin. Okay. My recommendation is own
[31:42] whatever allows you to be comfortable
[31:44] sleep at night and build the life you
[31:46] want to live.
[31:48] As much Bitcoin as that is 10 15% sure
[31:52] listen I don't know anybody that
[31:54] understands Bitcoin and it's 1% of their
[31:56] portfolio 5% 10% 15%. If you get it, if
[32:00] you get it, if you listen to this show,
[32:03] if you're one of me, one of us, I mean,
[32:05] guys, Bitcoin's 100% of mine, but you
[32:09] have to be comfortable. You'll get
[32:11] there. It's a journey. It wasn't always
[32:12] 100% for me.
[32:15] But my recommend I I'm on the same page
[32:18] as Ray Dalio, but he's one of these, you
[32:20] know, oldtime portfolio manager dudes
[32:22] who, you know, like
[32:26] owning a bunch of [ __ ] Hedging,
[32:29] you know, hedging is a fancy way of
[32:32] saying allocating money away from the
[32:35] winner. Owning a bunch of losers. I
[32:38] don't own losers.
[32:40] My dad once told me, you know, you know,
[32:43] the funny thing about my sport, and his
[32:45] sport is, you know, investing markets.
[32:48] He's like, the funny thing about my
[32:49] sport is
[32:51] I don't have to hit a bunch of home runs
[32:54] and bat 300 to make the Hall of Fame,
[32:58] I got to hit one home run,
[33:01] and I got to hit it far.
[33:04] And then I'm a Hall of Famer.
[33:07] Then I put my kids through school. I
[33:10] give them the life I couldn't or my
[33:13] grandfather couldn't.
[33:16] I give them everything. Like one home
[33:18] run makes you a Hall of Famer,
[33:22] right? Think of it that way. [ __ ] the
[33:24] hedging. [ __ ]
[33:26] We found our home run. We found the best
[33:28] invention of our lifetime.
[33:32] Hit it far. Don't hit it 1% of your
[33:35] portfolio. That's my advice. sue me.
[33:37] People are gonna say, "Oh, Jack, you're
[33:39] so irresponsible." Oh, God. How could
[33:42] you recommend such a thing? Shut up.
[33:45] Shut the [ __ ] up. It's my advice. You're
[33:47] an adult. If you're listening to this
[33:49] show, you do whatever the [ __ ] you want.
[33:51] Okay? My advice. You found a home run.
[33:53] You want to make the Hall of Fame. You
[33:55] want to secure generational wealth. You
[33:58] want to put on for your family, your
[34:01] kids.
[34:03] Don't hit a home run 1%.
[34:08] Okay, let's play this video uh from
[34:12] Elon.
[34:14] Uh this is just the icing on the cake in
[34:16] my opinion.
[34:18] >> In PaloAlto
[34:20] and um not Washington DC I'm at Tesla
[34:24] Global Engineering headquarters in Palo
[34:26] Alto.
[34:26] >> Yeah. So no more Washington DC. You're
[34:29] back at work. You're focused. Yeah.
[34:32] >> Uh yeah. I haven't been to DC since May.
[34:34] >> Okay.
[34:36] That was a that was a hell of a side
[34:37] quest.
[34:39] >> That was a good Any lessons from your
[34:42] time in Washington DC?
[34:45] >> Uh
[34:47] the government is basically unfixable.
[34:53] >> Elon O's
[34:58] noble efforts and this uh it's good to
[35:00] it's good to have talented people in the
[35:02] administration. Uh but at the end of the
[35:04] day um if you look at our national debt
[35:08] which is uh insanely high uh the
[35:11] interest payments exceed the u defense
[35:15] department I guess sorry war department
[35:19] uh budget
[35:21] um and um Nikki Bryzy so if AI and
[35:26] robots don't solve our national debt
[35:28] we're we're toast.
[35:35] Yeah. I mean,
[35:38] so Elon thought he was going to doge the
[35:41] place up and he realized
[35:44] it's he called it unfixable.
[35:46] This is policy, guys. This is it. This
[35:49] is it. The only way out is through
[35:52] debasement. They have to weaken the
[35:53] dollar. They have to debase the debt.
[35:55] They have to default
[35:57] through inflation, through currency
[35:59] debasement. That's their soft default.
[36:02] You heard it right there. What did you
[36:04] learn from Washington DC working with
[36:06] the president trying to solve this
[36:08] problem? It's an unsolvable problem.
[36:12] Bitcoin isn't a fix. It's an
[36:16] alternative. Right? Bitcoin is not a
[36:19] hedge. It's the replacement.
[36:22] We got to move on to a new system.
[36:24] Okay. Let's move on.
[36:27] uh geopolitics as currency wars. So, you
[36:31] know, on this show, we like to check in
[36:33] on bricks primarily. I mean, you know,
[36:35] who really matters is China, right? We
[36:37] all know that. And what's fascinating is
[36:41] they are remonetizing gold and building
[36:44] a neutral reserve standard, a neutral
[36:48] reserve system to get themselves out.
[36:52] And you know, the United States at this
[36:54] point can't do anything about it. It's
[36:57] over. Now, listen, markets can remain
[37:00] irrational far longer than you can
[37:01] remain solvent. So, I'm not saying it's
[37:03] over like it's going to end in a month,
[37:06] in a year, hell, maybe even a decade.
[37:08] These things take time. But the
[37:11] trajectory is clear. The next chapter
[37:13] has started. Like that much I know.
[37:17] Okay. Treasury Secretary says US and
[37:20] European Union must partner to collapse
[37:22] Russian economy.
[37:24] Whoa. Uh, let's listen to our boy
[37:27] Scotty.
[37:31] Last question. Russia. Overnight, uh,
[37:34] Russia hit Kev in the largest aerial
[37:36] attack on the country since the war
[37:39] began, Mr. Secretary. It caused NATO, in
[37:41] fact, to scramble jets. You have a very
[37:43] high stakes meeting on Monday with key
[37:46] economic officials from European
[37:49] countries. Is the administration
[37:51] prepared to impose sanctions against
[37:52] Russia? Now,
[37:54] >> President Trump, Vice President Vance
[37:56] had a very productive call with EU
[37:58] President Ursa Vanderladen on Friday.
[38:01] She followed up with a call with me. uh
[38:04] and we are talking about what can the
[38:07] two uh EU and the US do together and we
[38:11] are prepared we are prepared to increase
[38:14] pressure on Russia but we need our
[38:16] European partners to follow us because
[38:19] if the US and the EU do this together.
[38:22] We are in a race now between can the how
[38:25] long can the Ukrainian
[38:28] military hold up versus how long can the
[38:30] Russian economy hold up and if the US
[38:34] and the EU can come in do more sanctions
[38:38] secondary tariffs on the countries that
[38:40] buy Russian oil the Russian economy will
[38:44] be in full collapse and that will bring
[38:46] President Putin to the table.
[38:47] >> Okay. All right Mr. Secretary there with
[38:50] some big news on Russia. We really appre
[38:54] >> Well, there you have it, guys. Our form
[38:58] of violence, our form of war is
[39:00] economic. It's the sanctions. Okay, it's
[39:04] a big tell. Now, I'm not saying it's a
[39:05] bad or good thing. I mean, I think Putin
[39:08] is awful. I think what's happening in
[39:10] Ukraine is awful. The point here is
[39:12] this.
[39:15] We we tried to bring weapons to the
[39:19] Ukraine and we fought a proxy war and it
[39:22] didn't work. We were getting outproduced
[39:25] by Russia. You know, we've talked a lot
[39:27] about the rare earth. So things are
[39:29] bleak in that sense and our way to bring
[39:32] Putin to the table is actually not
[39:36] through weapons and the US military.
[39:39] It's through sanctions. And you're
[39:40] really starting to see a divide where
[39:43] we're living in this kind of, you know,
[39:44] multipolar world where you've got, you
[39:48] know, China, Russia, bricks, and then
[39:50] you've got the West and we're going to
[39:52] continue to weaponize sanctions. Now,
[39:54] I'd make the argument that sanctions
[39:56] haven't worked. You know, I think that
[39:59] they're failed experiment. I think we
[40:02] weaponize them too often. They really
[40:04] forgive the notion that we respect
[40:07] property rights in the United States.
[40:09] But this is just very very very telling
[40:12] very telling. Okay, this is share of
[40:15] global global GDP and again so bricks
[40:19] Brazil, Russia, India, China, South
[40:22] Africa. Um it's
[40:26] yeah I mean listen like US EU share of
[40:29] global GDP has declined tremendously and
[40:34] uh now this isn't in real terms by the
[40:37] way in real terms but yeah bricks is
[40:39] bigger than both combined um I mean
[40:42] bricks produces all of the real stuff
[40:46] that we all use. I mean the United
[40:51] States has hyper financialized. It has
[40:53] been a curse to be the world reserve
[40:56] currency issuer. We've overextended us
[40:58] and the empire is starting to crack.
[41:01] This is China's crossborder interbank
[41:05] payment system. So this is in CNY.
[41:08] So whatever this is 46 trillion 47
[41:11] trillion but uh in US terms I have in my
[41:14] notes here it's about 7 trillion. So the
[41:17] point of this graph is to show that you
[41:19] know in CNY interbank payment systems
[41:21] it's not the people are using the CNY
[41:23] over the dollar. You know the CNY is
[41:25] really you know think of it like
[41:26] goldbacked.
[41:29] So you have US treasuries backed dollar
[41:31] and you have goldbacked CNY. And to make
[41:35] this point China paves way for RMB
[41:38] fundraising by Russia energy giants.
[41:41] Next, China is cranking up its LG trade
[41:44] with Russia in test for Trump. Next,
[41:46] China proposes rule changes to ease gold
[41:49] imports and exports. So, what you're
[41:52] seeing is BRICS is building a neutral
[41:54] reserve system. Again, you got people in
[41:57] my comments like, "How could you like
[41:59] China? [ __ ] you. I don't like China. Get
[42:02] the [ __ ] out of here, man." Trying to
[42:03] tell you guys the truth. My message is
[42:06] find Bitcoin distributed, fair,
[42:09] inclusive, equal technology. Get out.
[42:12] Get out.
[42:14] They're building a neutral reserve
[42:17] system.
[42:18] China and Russia are getting out. They
[42:21] mine Bitcoin. Bitcoin's not big enough
[42:23] yet for their central banks to be buying
[42:25] in any significant size. Who knows,
[42:28] maybe?
[42:30] But they're very clearly remonetizing
[42:32] gold.
[42:34] And we're living in this multipolar
[42:36] world.
[42:38] The demand for US debt from these folks,
[42:41] it's gone.
[42:43] It's gone. Even using US dollar payment
[42:46] rails, they're building goldbacked
[42:50] rails, goldbacked system, neutral
[42:52] reserve system. And I I mean guys, I
[42:56] really really think Bitcoin is
[43:00] going to be a big winner over the next
[43:03] six to 12 months. A big winner. The
[43:06] United States has to run this thing hot.
[43:09] They have to try and grow their way out.
[43:11] They have to debase their way through
[43:13] it. They have to.
[43:16] We're living in two separate economies.
[43:20] And the middle and lower class economy
[43:21] are getting demolished. are getting
[43:23] crushed. They need liquidity. They need
[43:25] help. I don't think
[43:28] because here's the thing, everything's
[43:30] fixable. Yeah. Could the United States
[43:32] go through some form of austerity? Could
[43:35] Trump just let everything collapse?
[43:38] Of course. And then everything,
[43:40] including gold, will have a really tough
[43:42] time. We'll go through something worse
[43:43] than the Great Depression. And then on
[43:44] the other side of that, Bitcoin will be
[43:46] a winner. All roads lead to Bitcoin. But
[43:51] but
[43:54] the point here is it could be gram, it
[43:57] could be bleak, they could I mean, you
[43:58] know, there could be world war.
[44:03] I think what they will do is what they
[44:06] always do. Print the money. Default
[44:09] through inflation.
[44:12] Default through infl I mean it just
[44:15] couldn't be more obvious. Now this last
[44:17] one I just wanted to show you guys. I
[44:18] thought it was interesting. So this is
[44:19] the US dollar to the Naira. Okay, look
[44:22] at the chart. Just look at the
[44:23] aesthetics of the chart. You see here
[44:25] before 2010, a little blip, a little
[44:28] bump, and then a little bump and then a
[44:30] little bump and then what looks like a
[44:31] massive one. Look at Bitcoin to the
[44:33] dollar. You see this little bump, little
[44:36] bump, then these massive ones. I mean,
[44:40] you see these emerging market currencies
[44:42] collapse against the strong ones. The
[44:45] Naira collapsing against the dollar.
[44:49] It looks the same here.
[44:51] The dollar is an emerging market
[44:53] currency against Bitcoin.
[44:56] I really think the dollar is going to
[44:58] collapse against Bitcoin. I really think
[45:01] Bitcoin is going to reach gold parody in
[45:05] the notsodistant future and then surpass
[45:07] gold as it is far superior as a money as
[45:11] a thing to acquire to save and later
[45:14] exchange for the things that you want to
[45:16] need in your life.
[45:18] I really think this is the story guys. I
[45:21] really do. And this is the last slide. I
[45:23] mean when you look at B gold and Bitcoin
[45:25] I mean Bitcoin's vastly outperformed
[45:28] gold and I think it will continue. And
[45:30] so when people say, "Is the bull market
[45:32] over?" Jack, we've reached the top. I
[45:35] don't measure Bitcoin dollars as much as
[45:37] I do Bitcoin Gold. We're still below
[45:39] all-time highs. We haven't even gotten
[45:41] started. We have not even gotten
[45:43] started. The party is just about to
[45:47] begin.
[45:49] Policy is to debase the dollar, inflate
[45:52] your way out, default through inflation.
[45:56] Bitcoin is the only ticket we are all
[45:59] sold.
[46:02] It's the only exit door we all can walk
[46:04] out of. And I personally think I'm
[46:07] getting very excited. It's really
[46:10] heating up. The temperature is getting
[46:12] warm. I think Bitcoin is going to go
[46:16] nuts. Personal opinion. Do what you want
[46:18] with the information. Okay, quick before
[46:20] I wrap up. Strike. For those of you that
[46:22] don't care about either of my companies,
[46:24] it was nice talking to you. Thanks for
[46:26] tuning in. If you do, I got a few
[46:28] updates. Um, as promised, we got rid of
[46:31] the direct deposit fees. So, zero fees
[46:34] when you get your paycheck and convert
[46:36] it into Bitcoin on Strike. So, for
[46:38] example, by the way, you can get any
[46:40] percentage of your paycheck. Sometimes
[46:42] people like, I only I don't want 100% in
[46:43] Bitcoin. I want 10%. Okay, cool. You can
[46:46] set whatever you want. Your paycheck
[46:47] comes into Strike. You can pay bills
[46:49] from Strike with your cash or your
[46:51] Bitcoin. So some people do 10% 90% 50/50
[46:54] zero 100. I do zero 100 and I finance
[46:57] myself by borrowing against my Bitcoin
[46:59] but I get my paycheck in Bitcoin 100% no
[47:03] longer fees on that. So Strike now has
[47:05] no fee DCA no fee direct deposit get
[47:08] paid in Bitcoin and we also have free
[47:11] onchain withdrawals unlimited. So you
[47:14] can get paid in Bitcoin, DCA Bitcoin,
[47:16] and get that Bitcoin to cold storage in
[47:18] your custody with no fees for free on
[47:21] the house. And we also partner with
[47:23] BitKey. So kind of semi-related, for all
[47:25] of you that use BitKey, that are BitKey
[47:28] consumers, have the hardware wallet, you
[47:30] can now set up auto withdrawals and link
[47:33] the two products together. So there are
[47:35] tutorials and videos on my Twitter
[47:37] online, but the TLDDR is you can now do
[47:41] direct deposit, get paid in Bitcoin on
[47:42] Strike. You can do DCA no fee with
[47:46] strike and then you can auto withdraw to
[47:48] your bit key whatever and whenever you
[47:50] want for free literally for free. So
[47:55] pretty cool feature. I'm super proud of
[47:56] it. I think we at Strike it's the most
[47:59] userfriendly cheapest way to get Bitcoin
[48:02] cold storage or just to get Bitcoin at
[48:04] all. And then for 21,
[48:06] you guys know what it is. My mouth has
[48:08] to be sealed. our uh our treasury is
[48:11] hovering around that five billion dollar
[48:13] mark. Um which is exciting. Um but uh I
[48:16] listen I think I'll have stuff um to
[48:20] tell you guys uh relatively soon, but
[48:23] we'll see. Right now um I'm in a quiet
[48:26] period. Quiet. Um all right, that's all.
[48:30] Uh again, sorry for the pre-record. I'm
[48:33] not in Chicago. By the time I would have
[48:35] had to do it live, it'd be well into the
[48:37] middle of the night. um can't do that.
[48:40] So, uh this was fun though. This was
[48:42] fun. Thank you guys as always for
[48:44] listening. It always means the world. I
[48:46] really really do appreciate it. Um this
[48:49] is don't don't tell my employees, but
[48:52] this is arguably the my favorite part of
[48:54] my days uh and my job, although I don't
[48:56] get paid for this. Uh so, thank you so
[48:59] much. We'll do some maybe extended Q&A
[49:01] next episode. I'll be home. So, we'll do
[49:03] some extended Q&A where uh I can answer
[49:06] all your questions to make up for this
[49:07] one. But get yourself some Bitcoin. This
[49:10] is new policy. The dollar's going down.
[49:13] Own something that will go up. Buy
[49:15] Bitcoin. Buy Bitcoin. Love you guys.
[49:18] Peace.