The 4-Year Cycle Journey in 2020

[00:01] welcome four-year journey members its Bob Lucas it is January the 7th 2020 I hope you're well happy New Year to all of you it's good to be back it's been about a month since the last video actually just slightly over one month and not a whole lot to talk about in terms of price changes since that last video but I think this is a prudent time to talk about the outlook for 2020 what lies ahead some of the possibilities also take a quick look back at where
[00:33] we've come from take a review so to speak of the you know the path so far the bitcoins taken in 2019 how that relates to the initial kind of idea that I presented with the four-year cycle back about a year ago now in fact on YouTube and I want to cover that and also cover some member questions that pop up in particular we have three or four questions that seem to come up more frequently than everything else and
[01:03] those are on the agenda here most importantly the idea that we've got the cycle length set up potentially getting longer I'm going to talk about the myth of up lengthening cycles and then talk about a little bit about buying all coins and why I think that's a bad idea going forward talk very briefly about the stock to flow ratio talk about the Bitcoin halving and then some closing points that I want to cover so it's
[01:33] gonna be a pretty jam-packed video I don't know how long ago for bear with me and I'm glad you're here let's go okay as always just want to quickly mention that I'm not a registered broker what I try to do is just give you some insight into my thinking and my process how I'm approaching this asset class how I'm approaching this market there's a
[02:04] good chance that I will be wrong that's just the nature of trading and investing and speculating as well so you need to be mindful of that there is not one person on this planet that knows what's going to happen let alone in crypto or anything else we try and use the information a hand to provide us with an edge and we try and mitigate any risk around that and that's kind of what I'm trying to do here try and point out try upon all aspects of investing and
[02:34] trading and how I approaches market and it's important for you to not just listen to what I had to say and take only what you need or want to to fill a bias that you may have from from my message and a lot of people seem to do that they talk about maybe some of the price predictions or at least where I think price might be headed and kind of ignore the rest of the for the caveats or the downside scenarios and I may present and I think that's very dangerous it's a total package there's a
[03:04] total view point that I think you should if you're going to listen to this you should try and you know encompass all of that thinking that I have to offer okay and then lastly I have no affiliates no sponsors I don't have an agenda for you in terms of trying to get something from you this is free information free free to you and anybody who wants to view it you are free to do what you want with that information I asked nothing of you perhaps maybe a
[03:35] like or a subscribe on the channel but otherwise if you ever see a referral link on any of my pages then please call me out on that my whole goal here is to simply give back what I can and also if there is an agenda I gotta tell you it is to spread the word of Bitcoin I am a big believer in Bitcoin beyond just the speculation beyond just the financial gain that's obviously a measurement or a yardstick but I really am a believer in
[04:06] the sovereignty that this technology and the solution provides I run multiple nodes three three nodes in fact that I built myself and managed not very difficult but I think it's important I try and read up as much as I can on this technology and its future so for me I am in passionate I do believe in that even though my angle is more from the investing and trading perspective I still think it's very important that I do my best to get
[04:37] the word out and to drive adoption drive demand I think that is the only way that we can ensure that this succeeds over the long run it's off to a great start but we need everybody to get deeper into this to get beyond this speculation aspect of this beyond the get rich thinking and to get behind this technology and for the right reasons okay so my only request of you is go out and if you liked this video share with somebody else as well and see if we can
[05:08] get other people new people to come into this space and to help so first item on the agenda is where we have come from 2019 in fact it really begins in December of 2018 that was my first video calling for an end to the four year cycle the previous four year cycle of course that is the price action at that point was down to run about $3,700 the market was in freefall and sentiment was
[05:41] as bad as you can get obviously some of the old coins were down or mostly the old coins were down or all down by more than 90% most of them down by 96 to 99 percent so it was pretty much a bloodbath at that point I was looking at the four-year cycle low coming up and essentially my core was to buy now don't worry about the lows if you have a long term horizon it's gonna basically not matter at what price you get it's low enough lows and years ago and buy three or four
[06:12] months after that the April break out in the market essentially confirmed what I had already suspected I was already positioned of course long and had told everybody a couple times to buy long but the four-year cycle in my opinion that point was confirmed and the next call to buy before became true late was made in April 2000 nineteen in that video in April I pretty much laid out a hypothetical one of them at least but my primary review at least that Bitcoin was gonna
[06:44] spend most of 2019 essentially below $6,000 or all all that time below $6,000 and accumulating an accumulation phase of the next secular bull market or the next four-year cycle that obviously in hindsight has already turned out to be incorrect but the point of that video was not to worry about the price action necessarily to trust that the next four years cycle law was in place and that
[07:14] you need to not if you're investing on a long time frame need not worry about that day to day week to week and even months a month for that matter price fluctuation in Bitcoin because you now invested for a two to three year period and looking at a potential six-figure sum for Bitcoin a couple of years out and that was the goal and that upside surprises were potentially gonna come that there may be a chance that breaks higher but the fact or the idea was that we would spend most of 2019 accumulating
[07:46] and moving up towards a six or seven thousand dollar range and I think that's important because a lot of people look at where Bitcoin is today coming off a six month to actually seven month decline from $14,000 down 55 percent and that's the only thing that they seem to want to focus on even though they have a long term timeframe let me bring that up real quick so here's the weekly everyone's focused on this decline right here and chooses to ignore the position of Bitcoin right now relative to the
[08:17] four-year cycle oh and we have to take all of that in context when we're looking at this and that's because either people are just afraid afraid of losing money over leverage or have already lost too much money and what they want to focus on is the negative aspect and choose their time frame for their bias ignoring the fact that they wanted to invest or were invested for the long term when you look at this from a long-term perspective all I see is one very simple fact that if for youth from the four-year cycle low only just
[08:47] slightly over a one year ago even at a 50% decline in the market the Bitcoin or Bitcoin is up 160 percent now there is no other asset class in the world that can keep going up with this type of gain where a lot of participants are upset or have lost money and that speaks our thinking general to the immature or the inexperienced nature of a lot of the people involved in this space and the fact that there isn't enough discipline here in this space but
[09:18] for those who can appreciate the longer timeframe which is what I've been trying to illustrate now for all the videos when you view the market from a very or from a long-term lens and appreciate the zooming out where it's come from and where based on this secular trend where bitcoin is likely or potentially going then you begin to appreciate the fact that the short term moves even though this is a six or seven month in nature should be ignored at all costs
[09:48] and if you don't then you'll fall victim and you fall into the trap of like you did right here of capitulating at the very wrong time in a secular uptrend like it is today so I just want to point that out in fact I'm gonna come back to this video I want to play a seven minute clip from the April 2019 video that talks about Bitcoin staying all the way underneath this line up until the January time frame where we are today
[10:20] and I'm gonna do that because it's a segue into my next topic about sort of where bitcoin is heading and explaining this move to 14000 in the context of a larger move so here is the video first thing I believe is that this six thousand fifty eight hundred six thousand dollar level on Bitcoin is going to act as some significant resistance it provided significant support on the way down it was repeated and repeated attempts to
[10:53] break but a lot of that everybody thought that was gonna hold the market was gonna go up I did not and I don't want to go through the necessary why at this point but from a descending triangle standpoint I think the breakdown here was obvious but at the same time there's gonna be a lot of resistance at this point I don't know when it comes to test that area that's that's the key or the problem right now I don't know exactly when we test that point but I think it'll happen sooner than later we could even get that in the
[11:24] next week we can you get that the next few days we don't know but let's just say for argument's sake we get up here and we test that would just be the first test I think at some point and I'm just gonna draw this in you can again loosely write some point maybe around the always timeframe we get down and we I don't think we get anywhere near necessary the December lows we probably get closer to the February lows okay around about thirty three thirty four hundred again arbitrary numbers I'm throwing out it's more about time so I think we get down
[11:55] here and we scare the hell out of our lungs they get worried that it's been kind of seven eight months since the low it's taken too long it's now reversed lower they start to panic the two leveraged and of course they get they bail out talked about that five minutes ago let's move on you know then I think we come up when we kind of start testing this area a few times now I don't know if we can get above that period about that six thousand point in 2019 they'll
[12:25] be honest with you going to be patient here takes time to build a solid foundation and a solid base in any new four-year cycle but at some point we probably do get above this six thousand dollar level and once we get above that we may drop quickly back down but then we get it back above and then that same level begins to act the support okay and then we can begin to find an area that has you know less
[12:57] less weight and less friction and we will then begin to accumulate or to begin to rally higher with a little more intensity and velocity okay so welcome back so the point of that was to essentially illustrate or actually one point that it does illustrate is that nobody's right all the time okay I did not expect this big move higher but I held my position all the way through I didn't dump it and I didn't get scared
[13:31] in this area and I had I held the whole way through so like many of you I'm also still up a hundred and sixty percent on my position and it's been relatively pain-free but the other point I wanted to really illustrate is the fact that as I said I thought price would be in this sort of six to seven thousand dollar range by this point in the year but people still want to focus on the decline since the June top and then and try and tell us that because we've had this 50% decline here that the báb the you know the bull market is never going
[14:02] to get off the ground there's still a bear market we're heading for two thousand three thousand dollar price prints but essentially all that's happened is we had this huge impulse move and and there are many theories and reasons why but coming out of a deep bear market right here at an eighty five percent correction there was a lot of short-covering initially there was a lot of a lot of whales and other people that pushed the market higher then there was a whole lot of FOMO and retail obviously a lot of people got hurt again didn't learn a lesson of not getting in early getting in late getting too much
[14:33] leverage not being able to hold on the way down whatever the reason that this impulse move occurred I think what also happened was it's unique to Bitcoin in terms of its price action of the past cycles people weren't expecting that and I'm including that I was expecting more of an accumulation down in this bottom area going higher nobody really expected this and everybody jumped in foe mode in thinking it's gonna go right above 20,000 rapidly and quickly again and it didn't okay but essentially I think
[15:04] what's still happening if we look at it from a longer-term trend I still think we're heading higher like this so all we did was we overshot significantly to the upside and we're now reverted back to the mean okay well back to something similar to prior previous bull market accumulation phases I think now one year removed and I don't know if that's today and I'll cover that in a little while I don't know if that's starting right now with this big weekly bar that I'm showing you
[15:34] here it's irrelevant to me right now we've seen other ones but at some point this downtrend is gonna end I think it's an end very soon and I think there's gonna be a continuation of that accumulation phase and then eventually we're gonna get more into an awareness phase up in this area here and then the bull market will continue as such so I just want to point that out I don't think there's anything wrong with Bitcoin sitting a hundred and sixty percent higher today just twelve months later if you and and the fact that there is so much negative sentiment still out
[16:05] there towards Bitcoin because of the decline of recently tells us that we're still very very early in the next four years I call bull phase still a lot of negative sentiment there's still a lot of people hurting from this for miss.adventure it doesn't help that a lot of the altcoin space where a lot of people are exposed to very few people are 100% and only one of us unexposed to Bitcoin a lot of people are overly exposed to all coins and so even though
[16:36] Bitcoin might be up a hundred sixty percent mostly all coins are down the down certainly versus BTC a lot of them a down versus a fiat currency and that's hurting so the sentiment is there for expectedly bearish and negative and that's good for from a you know a new bull market perspective that's that's where we want to be sentiment wise so plenty of time left and plenty of room left to go higher from this point so I think in summary for this point on the agenda we
[17:06] are at aware I had expected we would be a year out how we got here was not how I expected but holding on to positions was the message and only message I wanted to give you nine months ago on a year ago to ignore price and focus on holding your position and for those that did you're now sitting pretty with a strong hand up one hundred fifty hundred sixty percent and ready for hopefully what would be the next
[17:36] exciting stage of twenty twenty bull market so the 2020 outlook where we go from here and once the four-year cycle view well I think it's kind of just what I've been talking about in most of these videos if you go back to the original four year cycle video if you go back to the one in April the fact that we are roughly at the point from a price perspective in the cycle that I thought tells me well that we are still essentially on track for that longer-term narrative and the
[18:08] possibility of Bitcoin breaking out through 20,000 and doing a 5 or 10x like it's done in the prior four year cycles nothing of that has changed for me I think we're gonna get so I'm not gonna be here to try and predict price have obviously in April I didn't do a great job of the short term price but I think we have a good chance 70% or so that we have a low right here maybe no our 15% chance that we come back at some point retest this area low six thousands and
[18:41] then maybe exceed that on the low side one more time maybe as low as the high five thousands and then we go and the downtrend and then begin a nice and solar consistent uptrend that's what I think I still think there's probably a 10 percent chance 15 maybe I don't know how high it is that this here is a four-year cycle top now I get a lot of people say well you know it's your four-year cycle dead or is it is it not
[19:12] working out and some trolls we even laughs for example that yeah it's going all the way down well look let me be very clear here and please pay attention if you want to learn more about cycles cycles are only a snapshot over time when I say you know I believe Bitcoin may be going up to the six-figure range over this four-year cycle period that is just that's not the four-year cycle that's just saying that based on prior 4-year cycles I believe in this next four year cycle we're gonna see something similar repeat okay based on
[19:42] where it stands in the technology evolution based on where it stands from a market cap standpoint there are reasons why I believe the next four year cycle will be similar to the prior four year cycles and that's why we're gonna head up towards that area but that doesn't mean it has to happen that way there's a chance at this four-year cycle is what we call left translated in the prior videos and the prior the markings are still here I show a bull trend of three years and a bad trend of one year that's a typical right translated cycle
[20:14] meaning that for the majority of the four year period price is moving higher and where the top occurs is the peak of the cycle and then the actual end of the cycle is the low and because this is a bull cycle it spent more time going up anything that spends more time going up than going down should in theory at least have from one load to the next load an appreciation in price and I just think we need one more of those cycles so for that reason I think we have 150
[20:47] week move higher maybe it's only 120 maybe it's even longer we don't know point being I see a repeat like cycle here over the next 100 and let's just call it I'm sorry about that 100 well at the moment here it's 110 that's outlined it could be up to 150 point being that all the way up into this 2021 timeframe and more likely to be the late 2021 timeframe I see the coin heading higher similar to prior cycles how we get there again is kind of
[21:19] where we were in the April video in last year's video I don't know right but I would say that at some point maybe by the end of this year 2020 there's a chance we get up to test the 20,000 well the all-time high levels I don't know I think this 14,000 high it's probably gonna give us more of a resistance than this 20 level higher if you do recall back it's been just 2 or 3 weeks going up from 10 to 20 and then just through 4 weeks coming back down below 10,000 as well there's not much up there there's
[21:50] more up here between 10 and more recently at least between 10 and 14 I think once we clear 14 I think we'll get some resistance of 14 at some point in the two ND maybe the October November timeframe and potentially shoot through I don't think we'll get as much resistance as we probably expect at that $20,000 level again not here to predict price I'm looking at this more from a time standpoint and looking at prior cycles and trying to come up with a guide that's gonna help so let's just
[22:21] say for argument's sake that we spend I'm gonna try and draw this looking at okay so here's that $14,000 level let's call it maybe July okay that's maybe a couple of attempts maybe a big shake out of some type and then maybe not so pronounced there but you get the point and then back up to this here's December so maybe not until January of next year maybe not until let's just call it maybe not until February or March of next year do we not get to the $20,000 level but
[22:53] as we've seen during prior bull markets and the type of behavior that you see in other asset classes when they make an all-time high there is a level of FOMO that's next level it's next level retail like FOMO and for that reason you begin to see a real acceleration in the gains and possibly just over maybe no more than a nine month period it couldn't be much less than that do you get the final extension from one prior bull market
[23:24] higher to the next bull market higher we saw that in 2017 as well and we saw that in Prior bull markets as well you get this really sharp move over just a number of months now again don't know how long it takes let's just call it let's just call just for argument's sake up to 120 by September 2021 and there is the bear box okay so this here is let's
[23:54] just stretch this out there's a hundred fifty bars which is 150 weeks that's three years I have a four year cycle going higher that leaves one year of a cycle going lower into the next low maybe as far back as the 25,000 30,000 I'm not sure what the range is but if prior bear markets are any indication we may even say we get to the 150 thousand ranged again just for argument's sake don't go out and get all excited because
[24:24] I said that but let's call this an 80 percent decline so there you go eighty percent decline from 150 is down to the 30,000 area and then you know you get all the way back and you know you get down to 25 so you retrace most of those gains just as we did if you look at this bull market right here the prior high back in November of 2013 was that so eleven twelve twelve hundred area and we retraced all the way back down to the
[24:54] 3100 area so significant retracement significant retracement in all bear markets for Bitcoin and that level of iteration is also a function of just the amount of gains that you see in the bull market phase as well so the volatility goes both ways in in Bitcoin extreme volatility goes both ways in Bitcoin all right so that really is my outlook for 2020 it doesn't doesn't really change much if you look at prior charts from a
[25:24] year ago again the difference being kind of is how it got to that point which means we may have another different path going forward to this point we may be doing a 2021 outlook video in 1-year time and price may be right at the 17 or 18 thousand dollar price point but it may have gotten their whole you know it's highly different parts and may have shot up to thirty thousand and then came all the way back down or it could have even spent a number more months down in
[25:56] this six and seven thousand dollar range maybe until the summer and then shot all the way up again try it the point being is there up 160 percent from the bottom we if we believe in the bull market narrative going forward if we believe in the same bull market narrative that presented last year and if you believe in the path that's taken over the last 11 years in general if you believe in the second the bull market then you need to hold your position and you need to be patient with with Bitcoin and again realize the time frame
[26:27] that you're investing on and stop getting caught up in the social media and all the fuss and all the price action on the day-to-day week-to-week basis it's not going to serve you well most of you are probably not experiencing good enough to be able to handle those movements anyway trying to get cute trying to accumulate more Bitcoin for example it's not gonna serve you well on the end because the market is too volatile move too quickly and you're gonna be caught off side far too often meaning that you end up with less
[26:59] Bitcoin okay then you started with because you tried to get cute on the market and a lot of times you end up buying back buying back the Bitcoin thermo inge at the wrong time because you thought you may be able to get out you know to preserve some short-term profit just don't do that it never really works and you know to be honest with you there's no reason to do that Bitcoin if this works okay and as it's an if everything's an if if it works we're talking about a 20 30 X type move
[27:31] again something you don't see throughout history so don't mess with that why are you trying to get more out of something that it's already extraordinary there's no point it doesn't make any logical sense it doesn't mean it's not rational to try and get out and get more profit than then what you know other asset class can offer you so just keep that in mind keep that always in mind I think that's a message I've been trying to to instill on you from the very beginning okay so that's my outlook nothing really
[28:01] surprising I think to many of you who have been following the channel for a while stick with it as a goal it's more about the psychology it's more about the patient it's more about the execution than it is about the price okay just worry about the time you have to lock this thing away and not watch another video for another year to do that what you know if you keep your risk level reasonable and again I've also been harping on risk keep your left your risk level to the point where if the worst case no it does come out and it doesn't work out again right we don't
[28:33] wanna be in a position where we've put everything into this and we've lost that's not what I want you to do I'm so not doing that of course it would hurt if the coin collapse whatever reason and spent its entire time down in the three and two thousand dollar range but it wouldn't necessarily hurt me that much I got in early enough but for many of you who didn't you don't want to be in a position where you're in debt now because it was something like that so that's also an important piece and element I can never do a video without really stressing that because it's kind
[29:03] of that that risk for the system that I have in me and all my trading I don't like losing I don't like losing what I've already gained I don't mind missing out on the profit I just don't like losing what I already have that's just something I've always stuck with and lived by so I think that's very important lesson to have all right let's move on getting into the member questions now and it seems like this one's a popular question and that is is the cycle getting longer in Bitcoin and the answer
[29:34] is no it's not cycles don't get long with cycles are essentially I won't call them a fixed length but their period is relatively fixed and the lows or the end of the cycles will occur within kind of a reasonable margin on either side of that from a time perspective people on I guess a new chip where everywhere else kind of want to be talking about the the peaks of the cycle getting longer and the peaks can vary undo vary and that's the very nation of cycles but the
[30:05] troughs do not where the cycle ends does not change and that's where every cycle mathematically for the last hundred years since cycle research became a real serious study that's how a cycle is measured it's measured by the low not the top the top is is one element of the cycle and top of the cycle determines exactly where the translation of the cycle so the cycle lows are a
[30:37] consistent time frame but the highs are not and if you see here in an uptrend and you see the black line underneath here the black line here represents being a longer time frame and a longer cycle so here's one cycle and here's the next cycle oh okay let's call this for argument's sake a four year cycle or from here to here each of these could be a one year cycle that are in between as the four year cycle was going higher you
[31:09] get the one year cycle topping further along beyond the midpoint making this right translated that's how you get the price gains and then you get a shorter duration lower into the load then you have a similar thing in the second and it's somewhat of a similar cycle and the third you notice the third may top in the midpoint and not so much to the right of it because the gains aren't as much and then though in the last cycle of the four year cycle it could be a 16 year site when the bottom one here could
[31:39] be a 16 year cycle and these are the four year cycles in Bitcoin we could be at the third one right now for example starting that out but you see here when the market when the longer-term trend is in a downtrend and it's gonna come for Bitcoin okay it's not going to go up indefinitely regardless of what model you want to believe at some point you will get multi year periods of bear markets and when that happens the four year cycle is gonna top early it's going to become a left translated cycle so the idea that
[32:10] these Peaks have to go further apart is just well it's just wrong that's all it is and it's the peak here that determines the translation of the cycle as it relates to the longer-term trend or a long-term cycle and that's how you get that longer term so I will come down and dip into its final low so the the top only affects what does affect the translation which then drives the longer-term cycle in a longer term trend and that's the explanation for
[32:42] this so that's why looking at you know looking at the peaks here just because you've had one or two consecutive tops or bubble Peaks that were further apart there's not necessarily or shouldn't mean that the next one is going to be further apart there's just it's just just clutching at straws essentially it's not it's no mathematical logic behind that really what you're looking at is the lows the lows are what count in cycles are not the tops okay all
[33:14] right this is gonna be probably a four or five minute discussion on buying all coins a lot of people are asking me about buying all coins which ones are like which one should I buy let me be very clear this is a Bitcoin hollow story not because I only want to focus on Bitcoin but because I only think you should focus on Bitcoin I'm Sonia only for the most part at least from a long-term standpoint focusing on Bitcoin and and all coins for me have no place in a long term strategy now some of you
[33:44] are gonna immediately sort of laugh at this statement a lot of you gonna scoff at this I'm gonna say well a theorem did X in 2016-17 and some other examples did so and so and that's true and some of them will do that again but the thought that you're gonna pick the one that did that is just ludicrous the the white paper that you love so much or the coin that you happen to stumble on in some disk or china or telegram
[34:14] channel or some tweet that got you hooked and excited is not gonna get you there most likely not going to get you there there's 5,000 or so coins listed on the market cap coin site I probably run about three five thousand I've already come and gone so if you think you're gonna ride the five the ten or even the twenty out of the thousands and thousands to riches doesn't make any sense to me but then or any of that are you gonna be are they
[34:45] gonna perform Bitcoin and I are you gonna be able to hold those gains all the way through not sell and actually capture the gains at the top if you begin to put all those pieces together I guarantee you very very very few of you are gonna be able to do any level of our performance to Bitcoin in the next two three years because of that reason but I think more importantly comes back to why why you
[35:15] believe so strongly in some old coin project and let's get it straight you don't care about the technology you don't care about the promise or the scalability or the speed or whatever it is that they have as buzzwords you care about and you're only concerned about making a lot of money that's what get Peaks your interest that's what that's why you bought thousands or millions of some at the moment worthless coin
[35:45] thinking if it goes up by however X percent you're gonna be you know very rich because of them somehow you're gonna hold all the way through and you're gonna believe in it and that's what you've convinced yourself and that's what allows you to risk so much of your capital on the project like that because you kind of hide for the facts that you already know but I want to ask you if we're talking about Bitcoin with a dominant to seventy five percent out there for eleven years has seen
[36:16] thousands of thousands come and go of coins come and go for your coin to outperform Bitcoin the coin still has to perform similar to what I outlined previously in this video bitcoin is the stable coin of the crypto world bitcoin is the path forward for the crypto world if Bitcoin fails I can almost guarantee you it's not a case of some other countries another coin coming along and just taking over the mantle and going
[36:48] it's not gonna work that way if Bitcoin goes into a bear market for two years or three years or four years for whatever reason then all those coins you're holding are gonna be worthless completely worthless so knowing that okay and I think that's a statement that I can stay bye and really believe without any bias if Bitcoin has to go high on the entire septa to drag the entire space higher with it so if you already have if I'm outlining a scenario where bitcoins gonna go up 10 15 20 and 30 X ok which
[37:21] is generational like performance why are you adding in multiple levels of risk okay to get maybe double that performance it doesn't make any sense and I mean I'm not even talking about multiples it's many hundreds of multiples more risk because you have to pick the right projects in the space of five thousand coins you have to be able to hold it if you're on the right one you have to be able to be discipline of to not jump
[37:51] ship to the other one that's doing well the one that you thought you were gonna buy or the one that your buddy board or the guy that you're following on Twitter bought and you didn't and jump in between the two just as a crash as well the one you were holding goes up and various many different scenarios like that that occurred during very fast and speculative markets it's just not easy to do it's almost impossible to do I mean for most people here riding Bitcoin 10 X 15 20 and 30 X it's very very difficult to do
[38:21] so if you think you're gonna ride some all coin 1000 X or 2,000 X I guarantee you're not okay so don't try and do it I think the path here the sound path is to stick with a reasonable allocation the Bitcoin a reasonable enough where you can hold it all the way through at least two too close to the highs to to a very nice comfortable level and start to sell some off and start to realize some of those gains and then be ready for the next
[38:51] bear market low in three or four years time and do it again Andrea cumulate but Riku mate with significantly more Bitcoin because you have significantly more capital available to you okay so that's my question on all coins please stop asking me well you can keep asking for you you'll kind of get the similar answer again I don't believe it now I will trade all coins I trade them often enough especially when I see the entire coin space doing well in a shorter timeframe but that's not what we're talking about all these questions were which is the
[39:21] project that's going to unseat Bitcoin which is the one that's gonna be the next world reserve currency or the next banking coin that all the banks is all of a sudden one those types of questions it's not happening at least if it does happen the chances of you taking and running it next to none so stick with Bitcoin is my advice okay lots and lots of questions on the stock the flow ratio looks exciting right there chance to look amazing I think a lot of you guys love the stock to flow because it points to these huge
[39:52] Richards right and it's a model that supposedly is pretty much guaranteed because it has such a high level of back tested you know statistics behind and so on look I'm not here to to tell you right or wrong I haven't looked enough into it so I'm not qualified enough to critique somebody else's work it just comes up so often that I want at least make some mention to it from what I can tell however that if you can make the assumption that bitcoins demand continue
[40:23] to grow then there is a lot of logic behind the fact that if the supply rate begins and continues to decline which is obviously in the code and schedule then it stands to reason that price will go up but I'm not entirely convinced that that logic works all the way through it may be my understanding of that logic is incorrect and I apologize if that's the case but I think the level of demand is not also as important as you think I think what's more important is what
[40:54] valuation does the market want a place on the total supply of Bitcoin so I don't think it's as relevant about the amount of a new supply that comes on board it is what is the dollar value of all the Bitcoin that's out there that the market wants a house I have okay so we need to increase it's all about the demand if there's 15 million coins out there today and it goes to 16 million year for example it's it really irrelevant from a market cap standpoint
[41:24] do we want to hold there's a market want to own and hold that's going to drive the price up for Bitcoin I think I'm I'm trying to say here also is that scarcity alone I know the model is not only about scarcity but known supply and scarcity in the supply alone cannot be a absolute predictor of price of the long term there are other variables that I believe may be ignored and again I'm using words like maybe I'm not sure okay but again I
[41:55] think demand and what the market how much of this the market wants a hold you know hedge funds and family officers and people who are buying a lot of the Bitcoin in bulk and not not a lot of you guys a lot of you guys kind of want the BTC you want the Bitcoin you want maybe one whole Bitcoin to own to hold forever so I know you guys think more about the the actual Bitcoin number but I got to tell you a lot of the big money does not they care about their dollar weighting
[42:25] of Bitcoin as an element of an overall portfolio whatever or risk strategy so they're saying I want you know 10 million in exposure 100 min exposure 1 X percent of a portfolio of exposure and so on so it's all about in my opinion again how much how much the market at this point and in this stage of its evolution how much the market wants to hold of this asset class that matters and yes of course reducing the amount of
[42:55] new supply it's not reducing the supply ok lope you like to say we do supply it's reducing the inflation rate does have some impact on that clearly but again it's all about how much we want to hold an own or this asset class ok Bitcoin having probably the most I guess not controversial but the most debated topic in all of the coin and if you just listen to what I said about the stock to flow you probably will have an idea run
[43:27] about what I'm about to say and that is I don't really believe much in the becoming having narrative and people like what you have a four year cycle the Bitcoin having Bitcoin haves every four years yes it's a coincidence as far as I'm concerned most or many other major asset classes have a four year cycle it's a very common cycle I don't think it plays I don't have enough evidence at least to say that that's the reason it certainly fits well it helps but again I don't think the supply having the new
[44:00] supply issuance having is having as an effect that you think it has is the most telegraphed event in any commodity okay it's it's a known event that miners and buyers and everybody can plan for and can and especially now with derivatives and futures markets can also you know prepare for so I don't think it has any bearing whatsoever on the technical aspect of the supply demand equation for
[44:31] Bitcoin however here's the caveat it is ingrained in Bitcoin psychology it's a meme at this point so it has a psychological impact and effect on the market that it can help and will help I think drive the market hi I don't think you're gonna see this boom there's the having and then boom goes price because if you look at the halving and here's something people don't talk about a lot if you look at the last bull market and 15 were last having I should say or 16
[45:02] it dropped by like I don't know 10 or 20 percent price dropped after the halving and took like a month to recover or three weeks to recover sorry I had the challenge from you but it dropped right so and then if you look at it from a longer time frame slightly it's just the having sits right in the middle of a nice big accumulation and Trent uptrend okay there's a little more evidence that the having in the first the first having had more of an impact but not so much now so in the last one so I think people are reaching again maybe it's biased
[45:33] maybe it's this need to you know just get rich thinking and the speculation aspect of Bitcoin that's driving people to promote this narrative that the next having is is all we waiting for it's gonna solve every problem I just don't see that and don't believe that again but from a psychology standpoint it plays a role okay closing points let me try and summarize this pretty quickly so 2019 was a great year in my opinion even though a lot of people probably lost
[46:04] what didn't do as well in crypto even though Bitcoin was up a year something like 140 percent amazing years far as Bitcoin is concerned I think price today stands roughly or even slightly higher with them where I thought it would a year ago I think that's a positive overall from a technology standpoint I think there's been great progress being made I think the ecosystem the developer environment I think the man.you capital the amount of new onboarding of technology that's
[46:35] coming on it's still progressing really really strongly so I think overall it's very healthy the network is continuing to prove very resilient hash rates continue to increase transactions continue to increase I think the whole the forking the blockchain size debate is coming put to bed right there are alternative options out there for bigger blocks and quite frankly there hasn't
[47:05] been a demand for it one and two the market is not pricing them that basically the market has said the black the big blocks don't have don't have value are not valid and not the path forward and and there are reasons for that technically I believe I believe it's the whole mostly it's about the decentralization aspect of and the self sovereignty aspect of Bitcoin that the bigger blocks don't necessarily provide at least on the future I can in the
[47:36] market I believe is pricing that in so overall I don't see much that's changed me I'm just as excited as I was a year ago I still have all my stack and more and I think 2020 is going to be a very good year and I just don't want to look back in a year or two and hopefully you want and look at price at the area when the range that we've been talking about for the last year and not have a position or have a smaller position okay again don't go out and bet
[48:08] everything and get into debt of course don't do that I know a lot of you do and sad because I know a lot of you lost I've got the emails and the DMS and I'm sorry about that hopefully everyone learns from that but we just don't want to be in the position where we let them up at you like this go by and not at least take advantage of it to a significant extent and that's really my goal this is the reason why I'm sharing these videos hopefully if I can help some of you then that's great
[48:39] but again I just want to and I also one last point there's quite a lot of other videos I've made here on psychology for example on execution and trading go watch them again because they are just as important they are important they are how you get through this next coming period if it does progress and also if it does decline like like I said there's a 10% chance or so that it lengthens for six months it gets back down to whatever number it is we we just don't know in training and investing and being
[49:11] prepared at least so yeah psychologically for that mentally is it's gonna be very important if we do get that point we always have to be prepared for the worst-case scenarios as well all right I just want to thank you again if you can give it a like give it a share share on social media share with friends get some friends involved not from a price standpoint don't tell them about the massive gains that can come all the riches that can come try and explain it you know from from the
[49:41] Bitcoin and what Bitcoin means to you and hopefully if it doesn't mean it doesn't mean anything but speculation then maybe should go out and read about first read some books and then get more acquainted with that aspect of it before going out but that's also important for everybody to do again thank you very much appreciate you listening and following wishing you all the best a happy 2020 prosper 2020 good health and how thank you