[00:01] hello fans and followers of the four year journey this is bob lucas here on may the 5th 2021 i hope you're doing really well it's been a couple of months since the last video and this is yet another update in a long running series now that goes back to our original video in december of 2008 almost two and a half years ago at the depths of the bear market how time has been rewarding to us to those who have been patient disciplined and diligent who
[00:33] when everybody was running for the exits we were running in and picking up what was an opportunity and still is an opportunity in bitcoin this journey has been and always will be about the long-term investor in mind the investor who wants to capitalize on what is clearly an urban ebb and flow process of cycles in bitcoin over a four year period with extreme bull market tops and
[01:04] savage declining capitulation like bear markets where we see 85 and 90 declined in bitcoin's price over time so our goal has been and remains our ability to take advantage of these cycles to increase by the end of the journey the amount of bitcoin that we hold so we can then repeat the process again in future cycles so the goal here is not to
[01:35] maximize profit from a fiat or usd standpoint the goal here is to sidestep what is really i think in my mind very clear asset price cycles over time and those cycles that if played correctly and not even perfectly even just played um correctly they could they could really make a significant difference to your bottom line so today in this agenda i want to cover
[02:05] where we stand as i always do in the four year cycle where are we in terms of the bull market top or what i think will be a bull market top i also want to talk about what i think is the number one fear right now that we all are facing and that is the fear of losing profit we're at that point now where we all should be holding bitcoin that shows from a usd standpoint a significant gain a massive gain and i want to better talk
[02:35] about and like i have in prior videos what that means and what we should be looking out for i also want to talk again this is probably the third time i've talked about this but there's a narrative out there that really believes in institutions driving this market and institutions being to some extent a big part of the future of bitcoin and i'm gonna i'm gonna provide more of a counter argument to that that may not be as popular to many but it's my view and then i'm gonna talk about because this is the number one question
[03:05] when to sell and why i'm selling um why sell if you believe in bitcoin so much that's the question that's asked all too frequently and i'll have an answer for that as well and then of course i will close with some random thoughts so let's get stuck into the video thanks again for being here so as long-term investors really long-term investors there really isn't any point in going into a daily chart even a weekly chart doesn't make a whole lot of sense when your time frame is a four-year cycle then your investing
[03:38] analysis and your mindset needs to be on that four-year time frame so i'm looking here at a quarterly bar chart each bar representing three months in time and it's a very smooth and orderly chart that clearly shows the four year cycles that we've seen the past with the run up the top the the bear market the consolidation the accumulation and then the mania phase and then the blow off top and the bear
[04:08] market then the accumulation and the retail the awareness phase the retail phase the blow off and then so on very clean and clear when you look at it from a three month perspective but then when you really go down to the one month level and you start to kind of zoom in then you start to see a little bit of noise right you start to see spikes above a moving average and spikes below a moving average massive shakeouts over time so it gets a lot more noisier the the the more you zoom in and
[04:40] then when you look at the weekly this is what makes it difficult for so many investors in this space even when they have the right intention when they where they go into this with a four-year cycle time frame in mind they end up getting caught up in either the media the social media uh discussion the fomo um the the altcoins whatever you want to get distracted by a bull market will throw at you many
[05:10] many distractions to take you off your original golden plan and we also saw that from bitcoin itself in terms of its price action we had when the first video was released back here in december right at the bear market bottom when i was buying the first tranche of uh of allocation for the model portfolio we had this run here that took everybody's by surprise and and to some extent took me by surprise running up to 14 000 very very quickly very few except for the hodlers and and some
[05:41] traders but few able to take advantage of this many firmware in at the 10 000 range thinking it's just going to go straight to 50 and 60 and of course they got shaken out and what became sort of a nine month bear market here so we had this massive run early on and then we had on the flip side one of the biggest capitulations in bitcoin's history that shook out all of the leveraged players with massive liquidations but also
[06:12] sadly even from hearing from a lot of people that i've been in contact with people who have been following this journey shook out a lot of huddlers as well on this drop in capitulation at the time i talked about buying at this point this was i thought one of the biggest opportunities a bigger opportunity than what it was here in december because i understand in the in a declining bear market of 85 percent decline there always is that thought in the back of your mind that is this it has bitcoin gone through a chulip
[06:44] like bubble you know has it end has has that come to a final top and now we're looking at it becoming a nothing asset class for for the future so that i can understand the hesitation in this area but this to me was a classic classic market panic across all asset classes across all risk markets and bitcoin was no exception there after what was a confirmed four-year cycle in a new four-year cycle
[07:15] so for me i tried my best in this series to reassure you all that that was not only um an opportunity that should be bought but obviously something that you should not lose your position over and then the third surprise to a large extent again has been just this straight shut up that we've seen since the october lows we've had this consolidation right here and then we just had as you can see from this chart from a weekly standpoint mostly green candles all the way up straight to
[07:46] a 1 trillion market cap up into the 60 000 range where we now have begun to consolidate so we had this surprise surprise surprise and traders haven't done as well as you think and a lot of the active investors have been shaking out active meeting people who are kind of getting in and in and out of spot i think they've they've had a tough time of it as well but the hodlers the people following this journey have hopefully had a fairly
[08:18] comfortable and smooth ride to this point where we're up around 15x on the initial investment purely because we were able to get in at the right times add some more at the right times and now hopefully sitting in a very comfortable position as the market consolidates at this 1 trillion dollar level now i get asked quite a bit is this possible that the four year cycle is topping right here that we've come to
[08:48] a top in the market and my answer to that is i don't think i've been any more confident in this bull market than i am today um i don't think we've really been tested from a confidence standpoint but i'm not being tested here at all from a bull versus bear market perspective i think we are now only consolidating what has been
[09:18] a phenomenal run we need to and everybody needs to keep their expectations a little bit in check we're kind of getting very spoiled with the type of gains we've seen in bitcoin ethereum and other all coins as well but of course we're talking bitcoin here an asset class that's up 10x in the last uh the last year more than 10 excellent last year and just since october up 6x that is almost unheard of in any asset class
[09:48] throughout history besides a few bubble events in certain asset classes so we need to just be mindful of the fact that bitcoin is just going through an 8 to 10 to 12 week consolidating period here in a massive bull market in the most ideal position in the four year cycle we are now into year three of this uh this um of this cycle here this four year cycle when we look at the lows back here in december 2018 we are now
[10:19] 29 bars in 24 bars obviously represents two years we are now two years and um five months into this bull market 36 is typically the time frame and this is just a guide it's not an absolute but based on prior cycles and based on cycles in general a right translated cycle a cycle that peaks in the second half of a four year cycle will typically as a good guide run three
[10:50] quarters of the way through so still focusing just as i did if you go back back and watch the original video the target back then was december of 2021 as a possible top in this four year cycle and that has not changed in fact none of my views have changed throughout the entire series of course we've had like i mentioned earlier these surprise moves early on the bull market the capitulation in march 2020 the recent surge those have been
[11:22] somewhat surprising but they're not surprising in any way when you look at it from the four year time frame that's what i keep coming back to i keep saying when you widen your lens out and have simple expectations bear market low bear market high as has been from the beginning then all the noise begins to disappear you don't get caught up in the noise because you're focused as we have been from the start on what i've been saying as the prize the prize is up here
[11:53] where i believe bitcoin is going to hit that 200 000 level i think it can go it can exceed that in a final mania phase by a significant amount but again that's that's something we need to worry about in the future it's a good problem to have but for now all on track here all tracking the uh the path up to that four-year cycle high very well it may be a little cleaner to see actually on the weekly here this target
[12:23] box up in this area here hasn't changed in the two and a half years and more recently with this surge bitcoin was tracking a trajectory which i thought was unsustainable my concern was that from this last from the last video that i showed you that if we continue going up to 100 115 120 that we would be heading for at least some type of local blow off top that would take many many months to consolidate
[12:53] and would also include a substantial possibly 40 50 and 60 pullback in the meantime something similar to what you see back in 2013 bull market but fortunately we haven't seen a blow off i mean we had clearly an overbought extension here over that four to five month period but we never saw at least what i would consider a blow-off that would cause significant damage over a shorter period of time in the
[13:24] future instead i think what we're seeing is something more similar now to what we had in the 2017 bull market where we had a orderly run so here the trajectory here was unsustainable as it was moving up but now what i believe we have is a more sustainable path up to that target area by the end of the year and in that 200 000 range give or take possibly 75 000 maybe
[13:55] even more and when you go back here to the 2017 run the final year here of course being the breakout year where the retail and the mania phase begins and the rate of change here steepens i think we're somewhere kind of in this area here where you've broken out to all-time highs you had all these green candles a lot of retail awareness and this is kind of that may june time frame it almost matches from a calendar standpoint and we extended a little too far as you
[14:27] can see here from the 10 and 21 week moving averages and we consolidated then we pulled back and v shaped and we hit that 21 week moving average or just short of that 20 week moving average as we had done previously before that and in the bull market you always get these corrections and these these ebb and flow process in the shorter time frames back to that sort of rising mean and that's what we're doing right now i believe we are just simply consolidating don't forget and and tesla
[14:58] is a good example of this so tesla's in for the long haul i get it but they sold some of their position it wasn't much but i can tell you now the reason wasn't for liquidity that's that's just not true they sold some of their position to bank some profit they're early that's fine they can do that but institutions would do that and institutions have been doing that and i know they've been doing that because i speak to people who run family offices and who are in charge or stewards of of funds
[15:28] and when you're up 10x or 6x in a position and that position becomes a big dominant part of your portfolio many of them have an obligation to rotate some of that out to take some profit to at least cover their initial investment and this is what's going on right now this is going this is a rotation there's some profit there's some selling and that that selling is being absorbed
[15:59] by all the new entrants right here and this is why we're seeing a consolidation the market is not being allowed to sell off sharply but it's consolidating we hit a 1 trillion level it's a psychologically a very important level 1 trillion market cap can you believe that if we talked about 1 trillion 5 8 10 years ago obviously people had and have had these thoughts of bitcoin becoming reserve currency and so on but they were dreams they were dreams for
[16:29] everyone and here we are with bitcoin at the 1 trillion market cap and guess what the market has accepted it this level of consolidation at the one trillion dollar mark is the market telling us that that's no longer a bubble that's no longer a ridiculous amount whereas um three or four months ago when everyone was you know posting laser eyes it was frothy sentiment was high futures and funding rates and perpetual rates
[17:00] option rates premiums everything was extremely high because that was a speculative phase that was a discovery now we're in the cementing phase and i talked about something similar if you recall back in this area here when bitcoin hit that sort of ten thousand level and twelve and thirteen thousand level who started cementing that level it wasn't a level that the market thought was expensive anymore but at one time they did they thought it was a bubble when it hit fourteen thousand right here and it
[17:32] consolidated that level so we built a massive foundation for this to to build upon and we're just building another foundation but this foundation won't take as long to pour because we're in this bull market phase now so once this consolidation ends and i don't know when exactly that may end i actually think it may go on towards the end of the month but that's irrelevant right because coming back to my original point here that when you look at the four year cycle from a time frame you can ignore what goes on so who cares
[18:04] who cares if we consolidate and we drop to 39 not saying we will and then we go up here or who cares from a holding standpoint if we just go it doesn't matter because when you zoom out and when i go back to a monthly or when i go back to a quarterly you're not going to see that on those charts because we're focused on these longer term charts where the noise the noise is there where people get shaken out of positions where people want to take
[18:34] leverage who don't know how to handle and they lose their position they lose their bitcoin we're on this we're on this longer time frame where the noise is mostly cancelled out so once this area here is poured from a foundation standpoint and i think it's coming very soon i think this is a massive massive opportunity for those who keep saying well i missed the opportunity well yes you have missed a lot of the opportunity
[19:05] that's that's just face facts right the opportunity obviously was down in this 12 000 level but more importantly down the 4 000 5000 level where we first were buying those those were the once in a four year cycle opportunities but this still is not a bad time we're seeing a huge amount of rotation into all coins into ethereum that is represented by the bitcoin dominance index to a large extent as well and some of those coins are
[19:35] obviously going to outperform bitcoin there's no question that some will and some will horribly underperform and i think we've always known that and that's not the point here the point here is the point of this series is to take the highest quality asset in this space the one that provides the least amount of risk the one where when uh you know when things get tough that's where the money's gonna flow that's the asset we want to be in and
[20:06] right now i think this asset based on the amount of money and capital flowing into all coins i think this here is now gearing up for a run higher that will outperform a lot of the altcoins not all of them a lot of them at least for a period of time so right now we're in sort of an altcoin season where money is flowing out of bitcoin and it's going out further out the risk spectrum and that makes sense in any bull market the more retail participation you get the more
[20:37] they look at something like this and think i've i've missed my chance but hey oh apparently there's something worth 20 cents with the that the elon musk is tweeting about and everyone's making money apparently so that's where i want to put my money and that's just let's call it um oh well it is what it is right it's it's it's speculative frenzy mania behavior and some people are going to do really really well and there's no question some people are going to get extremely rich out of it
[21:07] a lot of people will lose a lot of money as is the case i'm looking as i have always been in this series to provide the safest path to life-changing returns and people often discount the amount of risk somebody needs to take to get that so if we've got two assets that have extremely good reward profiles but one has a much better reward profile but the path to get there is extremely
[21:38] dangerous and and long and wide and you know and bumpy call it what you want and the other one offers a nice clean smooth and probable path to get there then that's the path i want to at least make sure i'm on i can take shots at alternatives and i'm suggesting for a second i never have since the beginning i do hold a significant amount of ethereum as well always have from the bottom from the 85 dollar level but this series has been about the short path where you should have at
[22:08] least a majority of your assets in the crypto space in bitcoin because it offers and has always offered the most probable surest power of two life-changing gains and right now i think we're just sort of at a midpoint on this bull market cycle if you look at it from a timing standpoint it's it's almost that kind of middle point from either the march lows to the to the highest here where we expect in december from a price perspective we're sort of
[22:38] halfway there as well so we're at this consolidating point and the on-chain metrics look phenomenal i don't want to get into that that's where other people do really well like willie for example but exchange bitcoin the supply is moving off exchange and going into wallets it's not coming from huddle wallets looking to sell soon it's going the other way which means people are still looking to hold more of this at this price which is great
[23:09] and you know so many of the on-chain metrics just look great at this point nothing close to the type of metrics you would see at a four-year cycle top and also from a sentiment standpoint yes of course we hear about crypto everywhere but we're nothing nothing close to what we had in 2017 when nothing close to what i experienced in the 2000.com bubble which i actually think
[23:40] we will experience something similar from this mania phase i do believe we're going to see something bigger than the mania that we saw in 2017 believe it or not and for those reasons i feel very confident that we are in a consolidating phase that is getting close close to resolving itself where the overhead supply is going to be exhausted and the amount of capital that keeps flowing into this sector including
[24:10] rotation out of some of the ultim back into bitcoin is going to lift this above the 60 000 level and then not look back and people keep saying to me they have doubt two hundred thousand bob are you kidding me three hundred thousand how is that possible well let's think of it in a different way a year ago we were buying at 4 000 and now we're at 60 000. that's a 12 x increase just five months ago at 10 000 here
[24:41] right we have a six x increase and that did that like it was slicing through butter it was just a hot knife slicing through but i just went up and up and up and we're not even in the mania the crazy mania phase where everybody's just buying this and there's just no selling it just goes up that was the early sort of awareness slash entry retail phase here and institutional
[25:12] phase and we able to slice 6x through this here to the 60 000 level a 6x from 60 000 doesn't take einstein to work out what those numbers are right now we're talking 300 plus again i'm trying to keep i'm trying to balance um my analysis and thoughts here between staying you know patient and disciplined on this
[25:42] path and not sort of creating this fomo unnecessarily but at the same time i need to be able to highlight where the goal is and what the goal has always been and if you don't see the path up there well we saw the path when bitcoin was at 4 000 and we stuck to it and now we're at 60. so if you don't see the path now then you're probably never going to accept it and never see it with being able to sit here for 15 x gains to get to this point
[26:12] two and a half years in the cycle four year cycle has unfolded very much like other cycles have unfolded we don't have the mania yet we have institutional inflows massive institutional inflows we have unchanged metrics that look phenomenal we now have a consolidation and pause at this one trillion dollar level i feel very confident and i feel as confident as i have at any time during this four-year cycle and anytime during the series that i've been producing
[26:43] that we are going to be taking a path up to this level where the four-year cycle at some point there give or take a month or two is going to top i still maintain that view now it's not going to possibly look like this it's not going to be just a straight shot where you've got 30 green out of 30 weekly candles you have 24 of them green and we're never tested
[27:16] we haven't really been tested all that much lately the last time we were significantly tested was back in the march time frame this consolidation is not testing because it's moving sideways we will see tests we've already seen in fact don't i i cannot forget how many times i was told that we will never see a 20 correction again because institutions are here and then when you look at what we've seen just this year we've seen four corrections of more than 15 percent
[27:46] one of them more than 30 just in the last four months and we've managed to survive those but we may see more and we may see more frequent 30 corrections to the path to the top it doesn't become easier typically at least because you have the corrections that come with it and each correction that comes the closer you get to a top the more you think or the more you can convince yourself that you are now experiencing the
[28:16] declining phase of the next bear market so when you're sitting on a massive profit and you start to see a 10 a 15 a 20 correction you panic because you think have i waited this long have i sat on these gains for so long am i gonna just watch them all disappear like i did in 2018. that is a massive fear it's a real fear and that leads me into the next item on the agenda here the fear of losing open profit that's the biggest
[28:47] fear in the bull market because you've gone so far you should be sitting now in a very comfortable position i'm hoping you've taken some profit off the table i have i took my initial investment out and i knew i was selling from a price perspective at a level that was going to be easily eclipsed that was perfectly within my plan from the beginning and i'm comfortable doing that because by taking some off the table and recovering and covering my initial
[29:17] investment i now feel at ease and at peace knowing that my absolute worst case is i'm never going to lose any money and even at a seven or eighty percent decline i'm still back to well above uh you know the the entry point i'm back to ten twelve thousand dollar i'm still going to be sitting on some profits and that's the reason for taking some off the table just to allow me to hold the big stack that i have
[29:47] up towards the top so i encourage you not to panic sell on a 20 or 30 decline but take a little bit off here and there if you have to if it's too much to bear holding a massive open position on sergers don't do it on declines but see these big moves up if you see four green candles like this and you feel really pressured by that take a little bit off five percent if you have to ten percent if you have to take a little bit off and it's like
[30:17] you're reducing the pressure that you have built up inside you it's like releasing a valve to avoid yourself from blowing up you're releasing the valve a little bit you're banking some good profit and you're allowing a position the main to huddle its way up to what hopefully will be a level where we can take a big amount of profit in this cycle but don't be mistaken about the test to
[30:47] come if you recall in prior videos i said that there will be a day in the future when bitcoins up at that 70 80 000 level that we will see ten thousand dollar declines in a day and that just didn't it just sounded off at the time ten thousand dollars in the day when bitcoin's only worth seven thousand today how is that possible um and we just saw i think it was uh last month we saw a ten thousand dollar decline over a three day period but when bitcoin gets
[31:18] to 70 80 100 000 we're gonna likely see ten thousand dollar declines and how you respond when that event occurs is going to be very important to how uh or what's going to impact how successful you're going to be over the remainder of this period we're entering into what i call the business end of a cycle right now the end the the the le the area of the of the cycle where
[31:48] we return great gains into life-changing gains and right now you all should be sitting on great gains maybe even life-changing uh or close to it but but this last sort of 4x or so is really the the big differentiator between grand slam knocking out of the park versus you know just winning a game right and you're going to be tested with these thousand dollar declines they're going to come and over a longer period we may be
[32:18] looking at a thirty thousand dollar decline actually i think we're going to get a thirty thousand dollar decline at some point from the higher levels if you look at price at 130 000 do the math just use a calculator just to subtract 30 percent what do you get you get a number bigger than 30 000. so if you end up entering that market not prepared mentally emotionally for those periods then what's going to happen is you'll
[32:48] get flushed out by the market yes and you will sell at a price that probably banks you a whole lot of profit again you're going to do well and that's why i said we're at the business end of the cycle where we're looking at the most gains we can get and not just great gains so if you're not going to be prepared to huddle through those those periods then you're not going to be able to come out the other side and realize the goal that we have for this four year cycle and this is why i say if you need to
[33:18] take a little off the table here and there to help you avoid succumbing to the pressure that you'll see during short periods of panic and capitulation then do that so do yourself a favor it's okay don't listen to people online saying ah you're sold too early it's going to 300 200 500. again we know it's going up there at some point and that's okay it's okay to take some
[33:48] off to be able to get to that point intact with the majority of our bitcoin in holding holding our bitcoin to that point so i just want to reiterate because i've done more than 10 videos now something like 15 videos in this series and to be perfectly honest with you the message has been along the same lines and i'm trying to adapt each video with this with the position that we are in in the four year cycle but time moves on
[34:18] time happens we're all going to get there and for the investor the investor that can harness time the best is going to do really well the investor that is disciplined and patient over time is going to do really really well and the investor who has been disciplined since the 2008 18 lows who has held on and has ignored that noise is doing really well and if they continue doing that and this bull market unfolds as i expect
[34:51] then we should at least be able to exit this market with life-changing results and that has been my goal and that it still is my and i hope that we're going to be able to execute on that as best as possible which kind of leads me to another area i'm going to i'm going to bring up the agenda item that i had there for exiting and selling to talk about this now because i think it's a better segue into that people say when do you sell how do you
[35:21] know to sell and why are you going to sell first let's address the why why am i selling well yes it's not because i love the fear yes i do want to go and buy some things maybe i want to buy an investment property maybe i want to pay off my parents home you know maybe you want to pay off your own home maybe you want to buy a home there are things you want to do that are good for you and your family there are assets that are worth buying that are not bitcoin okay so you want to be able to reward
[35:52] yourself and take some off the table and make the life-changing event it's not life-changing if it sits in a hardware wallet for the rest of your life you need to be able to experience it and to diversify somewhat but if you're going to do it just to sit in the bank account then that's not my suggestion and it's not my goal the reason for selling is because i think we're going to see a bear market that's going to be at least 60 percent decline from the tops and i think it's going to be way more than
[36:22] that i i think it's going to be another 80 to 85 percent decline people call me crazy like they did when i said we'll get 30 declines in this bull market and they said no it can't because institutions i can tell you now institutions do not care about bitcoin's future the way you do as a passionate bitcoin believer there are some like saylor and i've talked about this before there are others who do believe in it in that way but the majority of them are just humans
[36:54] trading an account managing capital looking for gain and when they see a massive gain and when they're sitting on ridiculous gains like we're talking about and their portfolio is up versus the s p any other metric or benchmark you can think of they're going to want to realize that those gains so they can show them off on their prospectus so they can get a big bonus call it what you want and especially when the market tide turns and the selling begins and there's going
[37:24] to be a panic amongst institutional folks just like there's going to be a panic amongst the retail folks it's going to be inevitable don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise can we overshoot to the upside yes can we go to 300 400 even 500 in the bull market top anything is possible i'm talking about the bear market the bear market will come institutions will sell everybody will sell every market needs an ebb and flow process of sentiment
[37:56] extremes we see a pendulum swing from the absolute extreme mania fever to the absolute blood capitulation those cycles occur in short time frames on intermediate time frames and long time frames as well and we're going to see that again in bitcoin i am very confident about that so i want to to the best of my ability at least knowing or but if i believe
[38:26] wholeheartedly that we're going to see an 80 decline then it would be a sin and i wouldn't i i would be ignoring my 25 years of experience trading or investing to be holding bitcoin when i could be sitting in another asset class and i don't care if you call it junk or if you call it um call it what you want is fear it's still gonna underperform that asset
[38:56] and it could be inflation and the dollar could be losing its value it doesn't matter if something drops 80 percent in 12 months i don't care what the other assets doing at that point you are dropping 80 and that is not good and i don't want to hold through that i didn't i held some of that through in 2018 but didn't hold most of it was sold and i'm going to do that again because i'm not going to hold that and i'm going to diversify into rural assets
[39:26] i'll buy other things but i'll also keep a lot of at least some some dollars available because the goal is to get more bitcoin after that so with the same amount of capital that i have in the market today i'm hoping to be able to triple the amount of bitcoin i hold at the end of the next bear market so by 2023 there abouts i want to be able to have the same
[39:57] amount of value from a dollar standpoint in the market but triple the amount of bitcoin if not more purely by being able to buy early in the in this bull market sell somewhere near the top it doesn't have to be a perfect execution and probably and highly likely won't be but as long as you can capture most of those gains and be out for that decline and then look to reload again when everybody doesn't want to touch it when everybody is saying it's over
[40:28] that's when we come back out of the woodwork and we'll creep back out and buy back in and buy a much larger position at least that's my personal goal and that's my money that's my decision and my choice to make i'm sharing that with you whether it works or not we won't know nobody's perfect i'm certainly far from but that's how i'm going to do it and that's what i'm sharing with you today and that's the reason for looking to sell at the top i can't
[40:59] sit through what i see as an 80 85 decline now when am i gonna sell next well i don't know that's that's the actual answer right now i see no reason to sell i see no reason to sell from a number of reasons three three in particular two of them are related well they're all kind of related but one is the cycle timing i'm a cycle trader i try i trade over time and as has been from the beginning my timing band for the high
[41:30] isn't towards the end of the year i think i think it's too early for for anything um to take profit for for a bull market top two all the on train all the on chain metrics look great so i see no reason yet um to be worried uh miners are still accumulating and um all the other unchained metrics still look pretty good to me and then thirdly from a sentiment standpoint yes of course given where we are we are seeing an
[42:01] elevated state of sentiment but it's nothing nothing what i would nothing close to what i would consider a mania or mayor top and fourth and lastly i want to see a massive massive blow-off spike like like we've seen any bull market and we don't see that um we were getting close to something like that we were developing something like that earlier on and we avoided that and we've consoled it like i mentioned earlier in the video so i want to see us build that back up
[42:32] now steadily and steadily and then i want to see a media blow off it's not not until i begin to see a price blow off something that extends significantly above certain moving averages and i see i get a feel you know i lick my finger put it up in the air and feel which way the wind's blowing um i will get a feel for where i think it's at and um it's very subjective and i will just make this a determination
[43:02] based on what i'm seeing on on chain on price and on sentiment and i'll be looking to exit my positions and it may be a couple of different tranches right there may be you know i'm yet to decide there may be just a forced sale at say you know a 150 000 level or maybe even a hundred thousand maybe take a little bit more off i don't know i've only taken one sale at the moment but it's a developing narrative is what i want to say
[43:32] and if that's not a good enough answer for you then my rebuttal is that you're impatient you're worried already thinking about the profit you're already thinking about you're already concerned about decline we're not there yet we still have the business end of the cycle to get through and that's what's coming up so i just want to close here it's been around 47 minutes and just say if you haven't seen some of the prior videos go watch the original
[44:02] one go watch the one in april of 2018 sorry 2019 uh where it says the four year cycle has begun and then maybe some other ones as well um i think there's some good information all of those videos in terms of sort of emotions and psychology if you haven't worked it out yet i'm very big on sentiment i'm very big on emotions and psychology and trading and go look at those and just you know
[44:32] just keep reinforcing the fact that if the market if this bull market is going to unfold closely to what we expect then there's only one thing between you and that massive life-changing event and that's you you are the you are the variables in that equation and how you respond how you approach this and the discipline
[45:04] that you hold is key to that success and i think that has been my recurring message from the beginning i wish you the best to hold through this to be strong and i will have another video out possibly in the next couple of months again thanks for being here i appreciate you very much i wish you all the best