“This is Bibi’s War” – Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War

[00:00] Welcome to another episode of the All In interview. I'm really excited to be joined by back to All In, Harvard Professor Graham Allison. Professor Allison, welcome back to All In. Thanks for having me. We last had you at the summit in Los Angeles, so it's great to have a conversation. A lot's happened since we last got together. For the audience, Graham Allison's the founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. He's advised every Secretary of Defense since Kissinger. He's helped dismantle 12,000 Soviet
[00:30] nuclear weapons, and his book Destined for War remains the definitive framework for understanding the US-China relationship. I think it's worth kind of bringing forward some of the things that have happened in the world since we last met. >> I'm going all in. If you were building a global financial system from first principles today, you wouldn't build it on 50-year-old legacy rails. You'd build Airwallex. It's the single platform for global accounts,
[01:01] cards, and payments that treats the entire world like a local market. Stop paying the legacy tax and start building the future at airwallex.com/allin. Airwallex, build the future. >> [music] >> Let's start with Iran. The US and Israel are in the middle of an attack on Iran, and the supreme leader is dead, but the regime is still holding on to power. Where do you think this conflict will take us, and are we sleepwalking into World War III? Well, thank you again for having me
[01:31] back. I feel you have a great podcast. I enjoyed the summit, and I'm sorry we're not there in person to to catch up, but I think >> Yeah. about Iran, I have much to say, so this could be a long lecture. Let me just do four or five quick points. First point, most important point, is that there's more questions than answers. So, there's a huge level of uncertainty currently about what's happening and about what's likely to happen. Part of this is Clausewitz's famous fog
[02:03] of war, but this is a fog of war that's actually increased because we got two big fog machines uh adding to the confusion, uh namely Trump and the administration on the one hand and Bibi on the other. And then we got all the chattering us around it. So, I would say why did Trump decide to go to war now? And there's six different reasons he and the administration have given, and each one they back around. What's the objective? Uh there's five different
[02:35] objectives, back and around. And when is this war going to end? I don't know. A day, a week, a month? Who knows? So, it's very uncomfortable to recognize how uncertain things are. And most of the conversation about it tries to make it more confident. But I think the place to start is there's a huge amount of uncertainty. Having said that, I'll still give you my prejudices about a few of the points. Point two, this has been an an extraordinary
[03:05] uh demonstration of supreme military power and supreme intelligence power. US military and the intelligence community and the Israeli counterparts have been way, way, way off the charts. And I think this should make all Americans uh proud of what's been built over this decade over two decades of investment, but especially in the past decade. Uh third point, there's no tears to be shed for Khamenei and the Islamic Republic regime. It's an evil
[03:37] leader, an evil regime. Uh there's no bad thing that could happen to them that we shouldn't be cheering over that. Uh next point though, breaking something's a lot easier than building something. And destroying targets is something that our military knows very well how to do. Building a new regime, regime change, is something that we know historically doesn't work very well, at least in Iraq and Afghanistan. We had every word said
[04:09] that's been said in this case. And we then went in all in and spent more than a billion dollars and many, many thousands of American lives. And when we went through Afghanistan, the Taliban were ruling. When we left Afghanistan, the Taliban were ruling. So, I would say unfortunately, it's against a backdrop that's hard. The next point, slightly more controversial, but I think this is Bibi's war. If you're reader or if you listen to this and remember Moby Dick, they should go
[04:40] look at it again. Ahab had this fixation, obsession with the white whale and tried to find a way to kill the white whale whenever he could. For the last two decades, that's been Bibi's number one, number two, number three agenda. He's tried to sell that war Obama, to Trump one, to Biden. And how he succeeded in mesmerizing Trump, who might thought had his number, I'm surprised. So, I'm pro-Israel but
[05:10] anti-Bibi in this respect. And I think that's I understand he's a brilliant politically, but I don't think this uh uh the arguments that were made that that Trump has actually repeated, that Iran was about to attack us, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was building an ICBM that was going to attack the US, I see no evidence for that. There's many, many bad things
[05:41] about the Iranian regime, but not most of the claims that that were made. So, I I look this and I hope it turns out well, but I remember that in wars very frequently it's easy to get in and it's quite difficult to get out. Let me double click on that point. You mentioned there's multiple reasons that the administration has messaged for doing this, multiple views on what success looks like, multiple timelines on ending it, and that this is Bibi's war. How do you think Trump was motivated to
[06:14] do this? What is the real motivation? And I will ask this in the context of the big delegation and visit to China coming up next month. Was Trump motivated fundamentally to create leverage with China and use this as a tool to try and maximize his negotiating leverage going into the Chinese negotiations? That's a great question and I wish that the answer was this was all part of a grand strategy. That would make me feel uh hugely better. But uh I tried I do Trumpology and I was
[06:46] actually having dinner last night with Bill O'Reilly, a former student, who I think is one of the better Trumpologists who are trying to interpret and we were going back and forth through this. It's easy enough to see why the window, tactically, the window in which this attack occurred was chosen because here you got 40 you got the supreme leader and 40 of the other leaders of Iran out in public. So, that's an opportunity as a target. And then the best opportunity that's come along. The question is why
[07:16] would you be attacking them? And especially Trump given his uh campaign and his previous views about not repeating the mistakes of the people that took us into endless winless wars. And I think it's I mean I I think Bibi is a magician. I think his single-mindedness uh is impressive. I think his agility in making arguments and developing arguments is impressive.
[07:46] How he managed to persuade Trump this was a good idea for the US now, I don't have a good idea. And I think that I think if I listen to the reasons why even the people closest around him have given or that Trump have given, they don't seem persuasive. Now, partly Trump is erratic. Uh partly he sort of you know, uh acts on the basis of instincts. Uh somehow it came to him that this was
[08:16] uh you know, something that could be done. I think actually maybe painted a pretty uh I mean the upside of this picture if if it's successful, and I hope now that we've gone into it it would be, would be redefining security in the Middle East for a generation. So, getting rid of the Iranian regime as the uh uh Bibi and company have gotten rid of the proxies of the regime earlier, which again, since October 7th, been extremely
[08:47] impressive, could possibly, you could say well, there's going to be a whole new Middle East. And if the if the Middle East were all like the UAE, uh that would be fantastic. Uh fantastic for all the human beings that live there. So, I think maybe he got excited by the upside, not quite uh careful enough about the risks or the downside cuz it the number of ways in which this could go wrong, you know, if if we woke up tomorrow or today and a couple of ships have been sunk
[09:17] or a couple of hundred of Americans have been killed, it's going to have a very different uh a different image. And you think that this is independent then of the action with Maduro and independent of the big delegation headed to China for big negotiation next month? Well, I wouldn't say entirely independent. I would think with Maduro, so Trump, I think this again, this is my uh whatever armchair Trumpology, but I would say initially he thought tariffs
[09:49] were a magic wand. And every leader thinks if you have a magic wand, that's fantastic. He's tried the tariff magic wand and discovered it didn't quite have all the effects that he imagined on liberation day. Uh he didn't discover the American military, which genuinely is a huge wand. And the Maduro operation was just spectacular. I mean again, it's a military and intelligence operation, brilliant. No other country in the world
[10:20] could even imagine doing something like that. And that had actually, you know, makes all of us stand taller. It can also provide a little or historically encourages hubris and an imagination that this magic wand can work in many other arenas. I don't mind at all the proposition that every other country should take account of the fact that the US has the most remarkable military and intelligence community in the world. And that's not a
[10:51] bad backdrop for China and for a China trip. So I agree that things may not be completely disconnected, but I think in terms of the timing, I mean right now, when is the war going to be over? If you talk about three or four weeks, we're we'll already he'll be in China March 29th. So my inclination, again, if we were just doing a prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over before then, cuz he's needs a little
[11:22] time to get his mind set on that. But if you ask the folks at the Defense Department, if you ask the people in Israel, they thinking this is another month or beyond this war. So again there's things I don't think are quite you know in sync. Jason joined us for some hours and it's always a treat to have you here on here. >> see you. Nice to see you. It's just amazing to have you on here and to give us this time. If things were to go extremely well and Iran went from a monarchy to a dictatorship and now in
[11:53] this third act here in in the modern day to a democracy and you actually had a democracy with 93 million citizens in the Middle East. What impact would that have on the region? We've seen the Gulf monarchies evolve human rights but they're still monarchies. You have one other I I guess democracy in the region in Israel but this could be extraordinary if it was a democracy. What what would that mean to the to the global chessboard? Well, it's a good question. I mean if this could occur
[12:23] it would be spectacular. Even I think but I would say this is way way way too ambitious. There's 100 things that would be wonderful outcomes better than what's likely that would be short of that. I remember uh in Iraq after Bush failed to find nuclear weapons which was the initial I would say somewhat up rationale for our going into Iraq. Condi Rice who was the secretary gave a
[12:54] speech about well how wonderful it'll be when Iraq is a democracy and market economy quote radiating stability through the Middle East. So we're pretty good at doing I have a dream you know in that version. I think that's a way way way stretch. I would be very happy with a regime there that simply was not about um building nuclear weapons, was not about building missiles that threaten the US and our friends and allies in the region and not about supporting proxies.
[13:27] And if it's a pretty cruel regime, unfortunately that's unfortunate for the Iranian people. The Persian people, and when I'm a student of history, I love Persia. You know, I remember Cyrus, and I remember the Peloponnesian War. I remember, you know, this is a fantastic culture and history. They've been hijacked by a terrible, terrible group of people. And if those people can be somehow ousted, you know, wonderful for
[13:57] Iranian people and wonderful for the world. I'm I if I were betting it, again, I'd say go back to the first point. It questions uncertainty, finding signals in the noise extremely difficult. But if I were betting it, it'll end up that the guys with the guns will in some version be the next generation. And if they're tamer and less uh uh determined
[14:27] uh to threaten our interests, will this have been worth it? Well, again, we'll have to look at, you know, over the longer run. I think the other thing that we know about wars is that they're unpredictable and that they have many unanticipated consequences. You know, I think as we watch what's happening now and see what impact does that have on oil and gas prices, predictable. So, you can see, and going and going. Well, what impact
[14:58] does that have on other countries? A huge. So, the number of countries now whose economies are being disrupted by this impact and therefore blaming us for it. So, I had a call from someone in Taiwan yesterday saying, "Wait a minute, did anybody think what this is doing for us?" Since they get about half of their uh their electricity comes from their natural gas that that is now coming you know now not not coming.
[15:28] Uh if you ask about what is this meaning for for Ukraine all the patriots that were to hope to prevent missile strikes from Russia on Ukraine are now in the Middle East. Mhm. So that's that many more target. So this just unfortunately it unfolds in so many so many different directions. Now I don't want to seem too pessimistic about it because again I think we've been
[15:58] shocked fortunately on the upside by how a professional our military has and intelligence folks have been and also how pathetic uh or hollow the Iranians have been. First day of the attack I was at the the the Defense Department and I gave them a list of 11 things that I would do and be capable of doing if I were playing the Iranian hand. I and uh they seem to be
[16:28] I don't know. I mean I I I don't know how to even want to say out loud but they they act like a paper tiger. Do you think there's there's more damage that can be done by being more successful? You know if we think back to Iraq Iran is twice as many people 100 million versus 50 million four times the land area a much better equipped military and arguably the military system the regime is embedded in every aspect of industry.
[17:00] So the more successful the United States is in dismantling the Iranian regime and as was advised by Condoleezza Rice who apparently was just in the White House today and advising the president and publicly stated it's time to finish them off. It's time to go all the way, etc. Does that not then leave a country with no infrastructure, no leadership, 100 million people in tatters, and that's the classic breeding ground
[17:30] for some of these extremist groups to seize control and seize power. And we don't have the resources to go in and have another multi-decade Afghanistan-Iraq problem. I'm afraid I agree. Yes, I think the the uncertainties about that I mean, you can do four or five different scenarios for how this might conceivably end. It could end up being a an extended civil war in in Iran among the various national groups, even some of them possibly seceding. So, again, fairly
[18:00] chaotic. Look like Syria plus, okay? It could look like Iran or Afghanistan. Well, excuse me, we were there for more than a decade with unlimited resources. Hardly any constraints on the number of people. And how did that work out? So, I I I'd say that I'm I'm a small-c conservative and kind of think history is not always not it's certainly not the only guide, but it's a good place to start.
[18:30] Well, I'm I'm I would say nervous, yeah. Is it too late to have a Venezuelan outcome where we've taken out the head of the snake and we've simply replaced it? The snake can continue operating and living without too much destructive damage and effect, but it seems like we may be a little too far gone now in Iran, and that to take this all the way might be very difficult to manage. I Is it too late? >> If I were again, we're all in the dark and all the uncertainty, so back to point one. But after that, I would say Trump is erratic,
[19:01] impulsive, but he has some coordinates. And one of them is is his power. See? Mhm. November 3rd is a big day for him. He's focused on that. The economy is a crucial element of that. That's part of the framing of the of the China relationship. The impact of this on the economy is already evident, okay, and could become more evident. The public opinion
[19:31] Again, I think he's I saw today uh uh in the journal that he's sent Hicks Hicks Smith out to sell the war. Mhm. Good luck. >> [laughter] >> Mhm. I'm not sure he can sell uh so public opinion of this is about six to four unfavorable. Mhm. Cuz [clears throat] they didn't make the case for the war in advance. Uh the impact of this on other parties including uh parties that we care about is negative.
[20:02] Uh So I I can easily imagine in the next week even uh and declare If you look at actually the way in which he's left himself room to declare victory at having, as you say, had a cut off the head of the snake, destroyed their military their nuclear capabilities, destroyed their ability to project power or in the Defense Department we always say destroy or degrade. Degrade has a lot of dimensions as you
[20:33] would point out and uh now it's up to the Iranian people to seize their own government and take advantage of themselves. The difficulty with that will be Bibi wants to fight on till the regime is destroyed. And that'll be an interesting struggle to see how that goes. Earlier, Trump demonstrated that when he thought it was in American interest he was prepared to pull Bibi's chain. So, we'll see. This is I think in before we move out of the MENA region
[21:05] a topic that's coming up. There's obviously no support for this war in America. Most Americans put foreign affairs today at 1 or 2% of their concern. Economy and many other issues are are high on their list. And he's been pretty clear, "Hey, we're not going to put boots on the ground." And then there's this anti-Semitic underpinning that's happening in America that's become pretty acute. And you had Rubio, who mentioned earlier, say, "Hey, we did this because
[21:35] uh the Israelis were going in anyway and we had no choice." And then they walked that back. Explain to the audience how we should look at that turn of events where there's a group of people in America, specifically people in the MAGA party, who believe Trump has betrayed them and that he's captured by the Israeli um government in some way and he's doing their bidding. I'm not saying that that's my perspective, but that is a an undertone that we're seeing. And that's something new in our lifetime, I think.
[22:05] It It certainly is. So, this is a big topic, but I'd say when I talk about it, I I I say, "I'm pro-Israeli and anti-Bibi." So, Bibi is not Israel. The people whom I know mostly and respect mostly in Israel are the national security barons. The people who've been the chief of staff or the head of Mossad or the head of Shin Bet or the people that work in that in those structures. And they believe that Bibi is actually
[22:37] destroying the Ben-Gurion's Israeli democracy that they cared about. Or if take Tom Friedman, it's pretty hard to accuse him of being anti-Is- you know, anti-Semitic, uh but he's been I think very clear and very courageous in pointing out that what Bibi's doing to Israel's democracy is really destroying it. And the impact of that on Jewish kids in America, I mean, I see this on campus, where they
[23:08] want to be proud of Israel. They they deserve to be proud of the country that has been built over these years, but they look at the behavior of these crazy right-wing settlers and their activities in the in the occupied West Bank, or they look at some of the activities in Gaza, or they look at now the kind of unlimited uh war without any any even attempt to make arguments about proportionality, and just say, "Wait a
[23:38] minute. That's not the country I want to be proud of. I want to be proud of of Rabin's Israel. I want to be proud of Ehud Barak's Israel. I want to be proud of Ben-Gurion's Israel." And I'm I'm pretty much of that of that persuasion. I think what what uh what Bibi risks in this, and risked earlier, uh with uh siding I mean, inter- interfering in American politics,
[24:08] in- invites pushback. So, I think this could have a big long-term negative effect both in the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, especially on the under younger people. If you look at the polling for the under 30s on Israel, it's just like shocking, you know. Mhm. Can we move to China because I think that again, this is going to be the big story over the next month. You've said publicly that ousting Maduro from
[24:40] Venezuela could embolden China to accelerate a Taiwan takeover. The CIA, it has been reported in media, warned Tim Cook of Apple and other tech companies about a possible invasion as soon as next year. You've separately met publicly with Chinese officials. What's your view on the likelihood and the timeline of a China attempted takeover of Taiwan? And what are these kind of motivating factors that might make that happen sooner? So, let me
[25:10] clarify. I I'm not sure or I may have been misinterpreted, but obviously the Chinese watch very carefully. They study wars and they will learn lessons from what's going on here, but I don't think that is a I don't think the Venezuelan operation other than making them feel envious about the capabilities will impact their likelihood of attacking Taiwan. So, Taiwan, number one, I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year
[25:40] or even in the '28, but let me just do '26 and '27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I'd put it at about where the where the prediction markets are, 5% or something low. So, I'm not counting on that. So, why is that so low? I'm just curious. Why 5%? Yeah. Okay, because, first, they they have a theory of the case
[26:10] of what they call peaceful reunification and they think things are evolving in that direction. Uh the theory of the case is that the current uh government, which is a DPP government, which currently is is stymied by its opposition in the parliament, so they can't even buy the arm sales that we previously gave them. There's $11 billion arm sales that the Chinese have complained about, but Taiwan is the
[26:41] legislature probably won't buy half of that, okay? So, the current president is struggling. There's going to be election in January '28 and they think it's likely that the former uh party the KMT will be elected. Somebody that will be much more sympathetic to China and uh a a devolving relationship. So, that's number one. Number two, the Chinese have been engaged in a a deep deep purge of all of their
[27:13] military leadership. I mean, it's hard to believe and you read about in the paper from time to time that he fired this guy, he fired this guy. He's fired the equivalent of every four-star in our whole political system and every combatant commander and every commander who would be commandeering the force commanding the forces over, you know, to deal with Taiwan. So, while they've been building up that military capability, takes a long time to get that back in the order in my view. So, I would say
[27:44] that part's makes me feel less likely. Third, I think he understands that uh if he were to do this, there's a risk, not a certainty, but a risk that the US would become involved and that the impact of that either on China's economy, which he's got to worry about first, and also what its evolution would be significant. So, I'm I'm looking for uh and oh sorry, finally, in Trump, uh he has the most accommodating
[28:15] president uh that China's likely to see with respect to Taiwan. So, Trump has made no secrets. I mean, he talks publicly of his views about Taiwan. In I think a couple of the memoirs, there's this discussion where he's in the Oval and he's talking about Taiwan and he picks uh somebody asks him about Taiwan, he picks up one of those Sharpies and goes thump, you know, on a spot on the Resolute Desk and he said, "That's Taiwan." Then he draws a sand around the whole desk, He "That's
[28:46] China." So, I'd say, you know, I'm less worried about Taiwan in the in on the on the current path. Now, over the longer run, the Chinese are absolutely clear, she and all the leadership, that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China. And how that could be satisfied in a way that allow the Taiwanese the degree or substantial degree of the uh freedom for both their economy and
[29:16] their society is the challenge that we've been struggling with for a long time. But, the good news is we've been doing this for 50 years, and Taiwan has never seen such a manners, you know, such such circumstances. So, I say to the Taiwanese friends, you know, basically, don't uh don't screw it up. Are we taking the right course of action, do you think? I guess the big question for for you is what's the strategic imperative to keep Taiwan from falling under direct
[29:48] Chinese control for the United States, and are we taking the right actions to hedge our bets, if you will, against that happening? Meaning, onshoring of semiconductor manufacturing, but also maybe from a defense perspective and positioning perspective, you can share a little bit about whether we're >> Sure. That's a big big question. So, first uh
[30:40] >> complicated situation to begin with. Uh secondly, Taiwan is halfway around the world as President Trump says, and 90 mi off the shore of China. And we're far away, and we have a lot of other things to worry about. So, it's a little bit like Cuba. So, inherently indefensible if China is were seriously determined to either destroy it or to take it. Now, on the other hand, since the opening to China and the
[31:11] Shanghai Communique, there's been an agreement of maintaining a status quo uh with the US commitment being what's called strategic ambiguity, in which uh the US and China have been committed to Taiwan internal development is left to its own device, and China doesn't use military force to prevent that, but we say Taiwan is this one China, and the only
[31:41] China's capital is Beijing, and then we have a a little bit of ambiguous way to talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China, but certainly letting it evolve in any way that the parties would be prepared to live with. Most people expecting that over time this relationship will work its way out. And I when I talk to Chinese about it, I say to them, "First, you've never seen 50 better years on either side of the straits. So, this has been fantastic for both
[32:12] societies in terms of what they care about. And secondly, if they look at this situation, if China's core strategy is correct, uh which is the inexorable rise of China, and that continues, in another decade or two, Taiwan will look like a flea. And therefore, not going to be an issue. If it if If China's main narrative doesn't work, Taiwan is not going to be their biggest
[32:42] problem. So, they should work on the other issues, yeah. If you think about China projecting influence around the world, how important is it for them to continue to do that? There was recently an objective, I think, of a GDP growth in the 5% range, 4 to 5%. Is that right for China, which >> The 4 and 1/2 to 5, yeah. 4 and 1/2 to which is a record low in recent history for them. Is it imperative for China to continue to extend
[33:12] geopolitical and economic influence around the world to grow its economy? You know, going back to the framing of the rising power, do they still need to do that to keep people happy at home, or is China going to be able to maintain happiness at home in a multipolar world, where China and perhaps the US and perhaps some other countries share influence around the world? This is one you raised and we talked about the last
[33:42] time, which is interesting. I think we agreed. So, let me just again for people that don't remember, start. So, first, China is a meteoric rising power. Never has a country risen so far, so fast, on so many different dimensions. If you take a snapshot of the year 2000 and the year 2025 and compare China on any metric of power, it's just dumbfounding. Dumbfounding. So, a country that
[34:12] I have compared it to kind of like a Formula 1 racing. A country that we couldn't find in our rearview mirror in 2020, or sorry, 2000, because it was so far behind, we have trouble finding in our rearview mirror today because it's beside us or in many races even slightly ahead of us. Now, that's GDP, it was less than 5% of global or it was less than a quarter the US in
[34:42] 2000. Today, by purchasing power parity, it's 25% larger. In 2000, trading, it was 5% of global. Today, and we were 15, today it's 35 and we're 25. If you do advanced tech in any any area, take 5G, my goodness, take EVs, my goodness, take whatever. Okay, so rapidly rising power. That's essential. That's the infrastructure for their
[35:13] grand narratives, which is the inexorable rise of China to its natural position in the international order, which they think is at at the top of the pyramid. So, they are absolutely determined to be number one in their own arena to begin with. And then after that, you know, maybe more. And they also they have a second the second proposition. There's the inexorable decline of the US. And they look at the various parts of
[35:44] the US and the components, including getting involved in unnecessary wars as part of that story, as part of their narrative. And that dynamic, the shifting of the seesaw, is what gives you this fluidity and dynamic that we discussed before, which most often, hard as it is to believe, but most often discombobulates people so much that then some incident or accident, like something that happens over Taiwan, leads to a vicious circle
[36:14] of actions and reactions that drags them into a war, after which they think, my god, how did this ever happen? So, that's a long story, but I would say the economic piece is essential for this. And that economic peace means they want to be the manufacturing work workshop for the world and the foundry for the world and the supplier for the world. There are two major challenges they have. I believe one of them is population decline, the other is unemployment and the AI that
[36:46] we've seen and what's hitting first could hit them in a major way. Manufacturing is moving to robotics at an alarming place. Then you have things like self-driving which is a major job there for for many people. So on those two axis when you see the youth unemployment which I think is 15 or 20% in some locations in China and population decline, is that she's two biggest challenges to deal with and then how does that affect this, you know, bi- this uh Sure. uh
[37:17] relationship? >> Good question and this is more in your old space than mine cuz I've tried to follow but Elon says there's going to be more robots than people, okay? >> Yeah. And if you ask him where where are the most advanced robots in the world, the ones that are kicking his ass or he worries about, they're China. So they got a huge number of robot companies. When I was there in uh last When was I last there? In uh January, I went to see a factory of
[37:49] Xiaomi Xiaomi, the phone company. They Xiaomi 3 years ago decided that they would make cars. After watching Apple spend $10 million not able to make a car, within 3 years that factory is producing cars right now. And they have a huge demand for these cars. They have three lines. One of the lines is all robots. Okay? So they're putting a lot of robots to work. All right? More than half of the working the factory worker robots in
[38:20] the world are in China. Uh and so some of the people are saying, well, you know, if demographics is going to be not so big a problem because if demographics is only a problem because of workers, which you know, we're going to have worker In fact, the American workers are more worried about, you know, taking our jobs. So, that's a Now, the issue with for the uh impact on education, they have uh a number of people that have been educated
[38:50] in arenas that are now no longer, you know, high-demand jobs. And unfortunately, we have a lot of that, too. I mean, if you look at people college graduates now that graduated in, I don't know, DEI subjects, they're having trouble uh getting jobs. So, I would say uh it's a little There are more similarities there than differences. The other thing is Chinese have demonstrated a great much greater capacity or readiness to adopt and adapt to new technologies.
[39:21] So, if you look at the I'm sure you have or you all have probably had him on, Jenson uh Huang, uh but when he went to China, he said, "Gee, I think I came to the future." You know, that uh uh the people don't, you know, they don't use Not only do they not use uh coins, they don't use bills, they don't use checks, they don't use credit cards, they just have their face and then go through the store. Let's shift around to
[39:52] what some have described as the longer-term playing field, which is near the Arctic. Some have argued that uh much of the recent push for Greenland by the United States is driven by the military threat coming over the Arctic from Russia and from China. I'm wondering if you could just help frame for our audience, why is Greenland so strategic to the United States, and is this effectively a proxy for
[40:22] defense against China and Russia, and why now? Another big question. So, let me start with the bottom line. I think the at least from the judgments of the people whom I respect the most, we can we the US can get everything we want from Greenland without invading it or owning it. So, Greenland has been an important base for missile defenses, a tool tool base.
[40:53] We had two other bases that we closed. But we can open as many other bases as we want, and they're very amenable to that. I think President Trump's right to say, "Well, yeah, but I I don't want a short-term lease on these spaces." Well, I would say a 99-year lease sounds like a pretty good lease to me for, you know, in 99 years, God knows what's going to be happening. But to the extent that missile defense and is part of it, which it is, I would say that's a part. For the naval component,
[41:23] yes, there I think the as the Arctic uh melts, you already now have an opening of sea lanes, and the way that the uh territorial ownership uh the abutters have their claim to the local and the regional. And there the the main claims are Russian and Canadian. We have a chunk from Alaska, and then Greenland would be a piece of that. So, I would say that's relevant,
[41:54] but those sea lanes uh at least for the navy people I talked to are they're not as important as they used to be, because now there's so many different ways to get at you're not going to try to blockade a a uh you know, a a waterway uh with ships. You're going to do it with smart minds or you're going to do it simply by attacking the ships on the on the way. And if it's underwater, underwater is pretty much all the same.
[42:24] But it's good to have narrow places and shallow places for looking for things. But uh So I I I would say I think Trump's uh uh Greenland venture was more like for fun. Uh plus uh I mean I think uh one of the people that knows him well uh says uh remember he's first of a reality TV producer and star. So he just has fun starting with a a drama, uh getting
[42:54] people very excited, uh letting the tension rise, and then finding a resolution. And I think we're attracted to a resolution there. Let me push back just on that point. What I have heard is that there's rising socialism in Western Europe, growing concern that over time as socialism becomes more of the mainstay in the governing models in Western European nations, those nations fall more under the influence of China. And as a result,
[43:24] if you think about the influence that China could then have on on Denmark and on Danish foreign policy, if the United States doesn't secure what it needs for the long term, and it may not know what it needs for the long term physically in Greenland today, we only know what we need today, that we're at risk of China having outsized influence over Greenland tomorrow. And that that's the real reason for the big push today for Greenland. How does that sit with you? And does that align kind of with with
[43:55] what some folks are are concerned about? I have to think about it. I hadn't heard that argument just that way. Again, what is socialism is complicated. Uh certainly the Chinese Well, yes, they're socialists in some respect. I would say capitalism is I mean, they're autocratic and they're party-led. But then their economy is essentially uh, fiercely uh, capitalist. I mean, you have a uh, the uh, um,
[44:26] uh, one of the one of the one of the one of my friends was gladiatorial conflict that makes the competition in Silicon Valley look look tame as the you know, as the parties fight each other. Uh, Well, cuz you can't make money cuz the taxes are so high. But that's [laughter] another Well, and in their case, you know, they they they decide they're going into an arena, let's say for example, EVs. And so they give uh, uh, advantages to companies getting started, even subsidies. And then they
[44:58] let them fight it out. And lo and behold, at the end there'll be uh, you know, 10 or five. But it's fiercely competitive in the meantime, and a lot of guys will get, you know, trampled along the way. And then those guys are excess capacity and they'll sell things off, you know, without any concern about the capex. They're just as long as they can stay ahead of the game, you know, selling items or even selling out their inventory. So I think the uh, I think watching the way watching the
[45:30] evolution of other countries, including Europe, and when I think uh, and their relations with China as well as with us in this game is a very relevant point. And I would say that uh, one of the things that the Trump administration has had trouble with is recognizing that if we're in a fierce rivalry with China, they have four times as many people. We need to have some allies with heft on
[46:00] our side of the seesaw to keep it from going the wrong direction and so yes kind of sometimes you need to give your ally a cold bath in order to get them to shape up but uh I think uh getting Canadians to think of us as an enemy is a pretty wild idea uh uh I mean any treatment that comes to that conclusion and if you
[46:30] take Carney whom I know from when she was in Harvard college kid he's he's as American as anybody or he was but the idea if you go and threaten a politician's survival that's a pretty good way to piss them off and if you threaten to take territory from people that's a pretty good way to make them feel hostile so this is an unusual treatment if we're trying to you know get guys with heft on
[47:00] our side of the seesaw. At the World Economic Forum I wasn't sure if it was Davos or another one of their forums. Were you at the Davos one this year? Sure. So as a total aside just bringing President Trump's impact it was two and a half days of people wondering what he would say when he got there. The town shut down as people watched his two-hour stand-up Yeah. you know delivery and then another two days of people sort of trying to understand and figure out what happened there. So I there's something
[47:30] It was really It was a reality TV show for sure. Yeah. So it took over the whole place. This fellow uh uh Butch who was his communication guy for a week or 10 days till he got fired in the first administration said on the first night I was at an event he said remember this is going to be a real reality TV show it's going to start with the claim that we're going to invade Greenland which by God invading an ally that's a pretty big deal. He said, then you're going to watch the drama build.
[48:01] When Trump had a chance to speak, he's speaking this long way back and forth, back. But he then had a just a paragraph in which he said, he basically took the gun off the table. But before that, he was doing a mafioso act, even some some mafioso lines about, you know, you could either have it the easy way or the hard way. One of the That's a Godfather line. And so people were saying, yikes, you know, this what it what it what has been loose on us. So now you have all this drama, but then he says, I've decided we're not going to
[48:32] invade Greenland. You know, he he just passes that off. So now the temperature goes down. And now the third day he does some other as Institute of or Board of Peace, and he says, we now have a framework of an agreement. So I think I think half of the time he's having fun. Yeah. You know, it's sort of ex- it it does get people's attention. Sure it does. You on a substantive basis shared a framework, 80 89.
[49:04] And I think it you know, I've I've spent a a bunch of time listening to the talk he gave and and some people's reaction to it. Maybe you could share it with the audience and why it's important. Oh, thank you. I'm glad you So I think this is a big idea. So these are three numbers, each of which is the answer to a question. And if you can remember the three numbers, and you can identify the question to which each one is the answer, you have the big picture about international security in the lifetime
[49:36] of yourself and even your parents. That's virtually everybody who's alive today. So the first 80 is the answer to what? How long it's been since a World War. How many years since a great power war? Since a World War. Yeah. Now, whoa, wait a minute. 80 years. This is the longest peace in recorded history since Rome. This is not natural. This is very abnormal. This is a didn't happen by accident.
[50:08] This was what the people who founded the international order after World War II were trying to build a new world order. Cuz they had just lived through a terrible World War II. Simply one generation before, they remembered, "Hey, there was World War I." Mhm. So, if we just keep doing this, we should expect World War III. Mhm. It should [clears throat] have already happened. If it could have happened at the Cuban Missile Crisis. So, no great power war, fantastic. And but a a fragile
[50:39] a work in progress all the time, eroding inevitably for many, many different reasons. Right? Second 80. How many years since we've [snorts] had a nuclear bomb go off? Fantastic. So, think about that. If you had gone if there'd been prediction markets, and you'd gone in 1945 or 50, you would have got 10,000 to one odds against that. It's impossible. The weapon that ended World War II, and you're not ever going to see any use of those weapons in war? Whoa.
[51:11] And then, nine? The number of countries, nation-states, that have nuclear bombs today. >> Fantastic, Jack. You're right. How in the world could you have only nine countries having nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons being your kind of ultimate security blanket. Again, John Kennedy in 1963 said, "By the '70s, there'll be 25 or 30 nuclear weapon states." Cuz he thought that as states acquired the capability to build nuclear weapons,
[51:41] they would do so. Today, 90 95 states could have nuclear weapons in a year or two if they decided to build them. Actually, into the '70s, Sweden had a serious nuclear program. South Korea had a nuclear program. Taiwan had a nuclear program. US closed those down, created a so-called non-proliferation regime. That's accounted for this nine, but I would say again, uh fragile, eroding, not likely to be sustained. So,
[52:12] when I try to do my uh giving thanks for uh you know, things that I should be thankful for, thankful for 80 years without a great power war? If there were a great power war, you and I we wouldn't be here, and we wouldn't be having this conversation, and all the other issues we have to deal with. So, I would say that 80 the 80 and nine we should not take for granted. We should give thanks for the work that was done to to build them, and then we should notice what's going to be required
[52:42] to sustain this. And we almost had a tenth nuclear power in Iran. We did. And we had the latest two, if I'm correct, you'll correct me cuz you're the expert, Pakistan and North Korea, and we had that one doctor Khan, I believe his name was from Pakistan, who was trying to spread and sell these. So, Absolutely. Did we make a critical error, we being the West, even the East, humanity, the leadership, of letting Pakistan and North Korea into this club? Well, I mean, not not into the club, but
[53:13] allowing them to get nuclear weapons, which is right. The Israelis have had a different idea. Uh this goes back uh uh uh to the original attack on Iraq, on Osirak. Uh they got call it affirmative non-proliferation. So, they say, "We're not allowing nuclear weapons in our neighborhood." And they've uh destroyed the nuclear weapon project in Iraq. They destroyed the nuclear weapon
[53:44] activity in Syria when the North Koreans were building a plant there half dozen years ago. And now they've been the leaders in the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program, which we participated in. I, however, I'm uncomfortable about the wars and even in Iran. I had to cheer for this because I fear additional nuclear weapon states. And I wish that we had managed somehow, let's say, the North Korean case. I've even said this to Chinese
[54:15] officials. I said, "You know, we and you made a terrible mistake. Maybe we made a bigger mistake to let North Korea get nuclear weapons. But what we should have said to you is, 'Hey, we have an idea. Nuclear weapons are either good for North Korea and South Korea or they're good for neither of them. Your choice.' And that would have been hardball, but I I think uh
[54:45] the idea of having Kim Jong-un have now more than 100 nuclear warheads and missiles that can reach the American homeland is crazy. I mean, here we're talking about Iran and what it might be. Excuse me. It takes uh 20 minutes longer from Korea to get to Boston than from Iran or maybe 25 minutes. So, I I think that uh
[55:15] that's a useful perspective to remind us that we let this thing happen. It's a ticking bomb as far as I'm concerned. If you ask me what to do about it, I I makes me you know cry because Trump in the first administration focused on this problem very very seriously and did everything that he thought he could. And I thought it was a good a good effort, even though it was not successful. But the 20 other ways we've tried to deal with that problem were all equally
[55:47] unsuccessful. >> How does China feel about nuclear proliferation and North Korea having these bombs? Well, I think they feel a little ashamed at least about what happened in North Korea and kind of think, "Well, that wasn't really our problem." But now, uh when you say, "Well, if this keeps if things on the current path, well, maybe South Korea or Japan will have nuclear arsenals in their backyard." They think that's a terrible idea. And we would be not very enthusiastic about a Venezuelan or
[56:18] Canadian nuclear bomb, yeah. So, Dr. Allison, just to kind of wrap our tour of the world here, come back to the United States. Since we last spoke, there have been a number of mayors elected in this country that are self-declared socialists or Democratic Socialists of America, DSA, and there's a rising populist movement in the United States that seems to be manifesting in many cases candidates that look and act like true deep
[56:48] socialists and want to enact socialist policies. What is the risk to the United States if this continues to go the way it's going? And what is the risk to the United States, do you think, in 2028 if we have a Democrat controlled House and Senate and a very populist Democrat candidate that looks like a DSA member? Where does this take us? Well, I can't good for you all for thinking of uncomfortable radical questions, but real. Uh
[57:19] So, if you look at the numbers, I have I I've been looking at them lately. They're hard to believe in terms of the split between wealthy and poor or uh rich and poor. If you look at the uh who's benefited for the last generation in terms of the uh 0.01%, the 1%, the 10%, the 20%, or that's us and all the people that we know, virtually. And therefore, when we
[57:50] say the market is, you know, third year in a in a in a bull market, and my goodness, here it's up 15 or 16% or this 80% or 70% of people, this is not part of their lives. And when I look at the numbers about both what I think the facts are, and then even more people's perception, uh it's just not stable in a democracy if everybody gets a vote. And if uh
[58:21] uh the top 10 or 20% are taking 80% or 70% of the pie, that's not stable and sustainable, I think. And it's the political invitation for a populist and demographic demagogic uh uh just I mean, you don't even have to be a demagogue to say, "That's not fair. That's not reasonable." Uh So, I think that it's not this I mean, this is beyond my I mean, I I I can hardly deal with the
[58:51] problems I I focus on. This one is one that I look over my shoulder and think, "Gee, wait a minute. This person this can't be true." But then, whenever I've been looking into the numbers lately, they look as bad as they appear. And then, this is extremely dangerous. And I would say, "Yes." And so, I haven't heard people talking about plausible ways in which uh you know, this could be addressed.
[59:21] And I but I think it's a it's a it's an invitation, you know, for some more radical ideas. And uh So, while I like very much the Trump uh accounts for kids to give them some stake, I think that's a that's a fantastic thing. I I I could probably be persuaded that people even at my level of income should pay another 10% of taxes or
[59:51] whatever for uh for some more adjustment. I think the kind of adjustments that are basically putting people on the dole uh or support for non-productive or semi-productive activity makes me very uncomfortable. Uh I mean, unless they're lame or you know, ill or or aging. >> UBI proposals? Uh people getting a universal basic income that that takes
[60:22] motivation out of >> me less I I I like incentive. I mean, I think the the stuff of America has been the opportunity for people to to be incentivized to invent, create, and create wealth that's benefits for everybody. But, if the if the jam is not getting spread to 70% of the people, that's not a sustainable political situation. And And I think I mean, I thought it was in the in the New York campaign, we got to see
[60:53] some preview of a bit of this. And in the primaries, you're seeing people going into this space. I haven't seen anybody with a with a coherent program yet. But, I think for serious people thinking about what's good for the country, that's a it's a good one to worry about. Well, it seems Fred Berg that there's there's a couple of proposals here. Minimum wage, maybe some type of a wealth tax. There are things that people are talking about. We may not all agree with them.
[61:23] And they may be hard to execute, but one of them is for the people at the top. I think you would agree, uh Professor Allison, the people at the top have the most to lose here. And they should be thinking about it and and maybe there's generosity in you know, maybe giving away wealth in a more thoughtful way because there's so much wealth in this top 1% 10% that they can't possibly spend. And so this might be something that that group of people should be thinking a a little bit more about. In the State of the Union, Trump called out, you know, Dell and couple of
[61:55] other people for having stepped up and say, "Okay, I'm you know, I'm going all in on this." I would say there's something quite Well, that certainly got my attention and made me think maybe I should be doing something different. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Well, Professor Allison, you know, they they say that you can measure a man's knowledge and thoughtfulness by his humility. I will say you have extraordinary depth and you've thought so deeply about so many of these issues that this world is facing right now.
[62:26] And yet you act with such humility and grace when you speak about them. I want to thank you for that. I want to thank you for taking the time to be with us today. Really appreciate it and look forward to doing it again in person soon. Yeah, thank you so much on behalf of the audience and just on a personal basis. This is such a delight and privilege to be able to do with this with you every year or two and man, I hope we can just do it every year because it's the highlight of my year when we get to talk. And excuse me, it's an honor for me. Thank you so much and thank you for what y'all are doing and thanks for thinking of such hard
[62:56] questions out here. It's taking me home tonight to think about socialism. Yes. Yeah. Okay. Thank you, sir. Thank you. I'm going all in. >> [music] >> I'm going all in.