Moonshots / Peter Diamandis
Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243
Transcripción completa
[00:30] to have fleets in cities that consist of some autonomous vehicles and then many human driven vehicles as well. >> A hundred years ago we had this massive shift from horse and buggy to cars. It took about 15 years to make the transition where 50% of the vehicles were cars. How long do you expect that transition to take where 50% of the cars are self-driving cars? Uh Now that's a moon shot, ladies and gentlemen.
[01:02] Quite the greeting. Wow. >> Yeah. Uh the energy is awesome and and you deserve it, pal. First of all, you look amazing. Thank you very much. >> Stay in good health. Yes, trying. Excellent. Well, looks looks so far so good. I mean, the biggest challenge we have is stress levels. Indeed. >> And way too much travel. So, you know, I want to not take it for granted. Thank you for coming out. Happy to do it. >> Great thing for you. I'm grateful for your friendship. You know, we've known each other since you were at Expedia. Um and
[01:32] you know, you had an incredible success story there, right? One of the highest, if not the highest paid CEO. You actually walked away from a 200 million dollar stock package from Expedia to take the mantle of Uber. And I remember just looked looked this other day. When you joined taking the mantle of Uber, I think Uber was losing what's the number out? Four and a half billion dollars a year. And that was quite the buzzsaw to walk into. And today,
[02:03] I mean, this is the hallmark of an extraordinary CEO. Today, it's earning over ten billion dollars a year. What a turnaround. Glory. >> [applause] >> Fantastic. Really really extraordinary and just the scope of what it's done, right? I was I remember um you know, you really focused the organization. I think one of the things that a lot of companies fail about is doing too much at once. Yeah. Yeah. And I think we were definitely guilty of
[02:34] that as well. And one of the great pieces of advice that I got from a good friend of mine, Barney Harford, was strategy is just as much about what you're do what you're doing and what you choose not to do. It's very easy to say yes to another idea. It's very difficult to say no, but sometimes the no's then amplify the yes's. And and it's about pointing that company, having a point of view, pointing the company in a singular direction, and then putting everything you've got behind it. Yeah.
[03:04] Well, you've done that and with huge success. And now you're going back to the stuff that you left on the table before. >> Yeah. Which is we'll talk about flying cars and all of that. Um So, the robo taxi race is heating up. Definitely. Yes. And and so, I'm going to start with the the hard question. How you going to How you going to win that race? >> [laughter] >> Well, we are going to win that race with the autonomous communities. So, autonomous technology and autonomous vehicles, they are increasingly a
[03:34] reality on the streets as we speak. Uh it's been 15 16 years development Exactly. With with lots of long tails etc. Uh and Waymo is a leader and a big partner of ours in Austin and Atlanta. And what we view is that there isn't going to be this kind of binary outcome, which is either all or all autonomous or no autonomous. That really the world as autonomous
[04:05] technology develops, we are going to it's going to develop in a hybrid way. Yeah. And you are going to have fleets in cities that consist of some autonomous vehicles and then many human driven vehicles as well. And that ultimately that transition and the part that we play in that transition because of the incredible demand that we bring to both human drivers and robot drivers, we will have a big part to play in that transition as well. So, we partner with Waymo, but we've got over 20 partners
[04:36] now in the autonomous space including Nvidia, for example, WeRide, Pony, um Wabi amongst others. And just like we want every terrific licensed human driver on the platform, we're going to want every terrific licensed robot driver on the platform as well. Uh and we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners. Uh and by 2029,
[05:06] we think that we will facilitate more autonomous and robo taxi rides than anyone else in the world. >> Masha, do you ever think Elon would come on on platform or is he just I'm doing it all on my own? He doesn't play well with others usually. You know, his I I think Elon's approach typically has been a vertical approach, right? They even own their own refinery. Um again, when when the day comes, when the day comes when those Teslas are safe with a camera only approach, we'd love to have those Teslas on our platform as well. We've got uh tens of thousands of Teslas on
[05:38] our platform now and some of our drivers use FSD. So, we've got a lot of data. It's a great car. It's a safe car. We'd love to work with them. As to whether we will or will not is TBD, but there are plenty of other partners in the space and we think there going to be many many winners. Yeah. When you talk about platforms and for you know, when Peter and I wrote this book Exponential Organizations, Uber is a poster child that of an organization that scales as fast as technology scales. And you're turning it into a
[06:08] platform. You have to have so many sockets and connectors to all of these different hybrid robo taxi, human, etc. How do you think about that and what are the major obstacles in building that platform? Well, the platform actually what we're finding is that humans are actually much more complicated than robots. Right? There there are many more unexpected behaviors. There are very significant differences as to how you set up your platform to be able to be operational in Bangalore and also be
[06:38] operational in San Francisco as well. Uh so, with our autonomous partners, there are standard APIs that you can put out there. We are very big partner in terms of data collect, the amount of data that we are collecting to to help in training of the models, where you should pick up, where you should drop off, fleet management services. You know, if you think about uh an Uber driver, they drive the car, they take care of the car, they own the car, they repair the car, they clean the
[07:08] car, etc. All of those services are going to have to be kind of uh a part of the of the autonomous ecosystem. Uh and we are essentially providing all of those services so that our partners can focus on the core, which is how do you build a safe and affordable autonomous driver and we can take care of everything else. So, I'm curious. I I I saw the announcement you had with Lucid and Nvidia. At I think it's the Lucid and
[07:39] Nuro actually, but we we also had another announcement with Nvidia as well. I guess both at the same time at at CES. Can you talk a bit about your your tech ecosystem, your car your automotive ecosystem? Who are the major players that you're you're building relationships with? So, so there are a number of players. If you think about the ecosystem, there's the demand aggregator, which is Uber. Then there is the the autonomous driver and there are many players who are building out the autonomous driver, whether it's a Waymo, WeRide, Pony.ai,
[08:13] Nvidia's building out its own autonomous driver, Nuro, Avride, and many many more. Wabi, for example. So, there are many companies that are building out the driver and we are helping them in different ways of building out the driver. Zoox is another one. So, are you going to play with Zoox as well? You going to play with Zoox as well? Uh well, we certainly would love to work with them. There are some that we're working with and and some that we're in discussions with or different different places in terms of
[08:43] partnership discussions. Then you actually need the car. Right? And the the car needs to have very very sophisticated compute, needs to have redundant steering, braking, etc. So, the needs of the car are different and we're working with Lucid, for example, uh has a great car that already has a bunch of the redundancy and the sensors systems already built into that car as well, which is one of the reasons why we partnered with Lucid. But you can expect many other partnership announcements as
[09:14] well. Uh OEM announcements. And then you need essentially the fleet management and fleet ownership as well. Early on, we will go out and buy cars. Yep. But then over a long period of time, just like Marriott doesn't own any hotels, it's actually financial players, these kind of real estate investment trusts that own the hotels that Marriott manages, we think that autonomous will also kind of move into this asset light uh
[09:45] model where we'll be operating of the fleets, we'll be repairing the cars, we'll be cleaning the cars either ourselves or through partners. And then there will be financial players, you know, the Blackstones of the world were going to own large fleets of cars that you know, give a 9% yield. Yeah, so to speak. So, it's a big ecosystem that we're building and we're essentially working with everyone in that ecosystem. And and we think it's going to be another trillion-dollar marketplace and we're very very excited for autonomous to become a reality. Not
[10:17] to also mention that the streets are going to be safer, right? These These cars they don't get these drivers don't get distracted. They don't get tired. Uh and uh we do think that kind of the regulation is coming to place that will make sure that the safety case is one where the autonomous drivers is actually >> in. It's 10 times safer to be on in a Tesla and FSD. >> The the the early data certainly suggests that that is quite safe. Now, most of those Teslas have a driver as
[10:47] well as a backup, but there's no doubt that eventually the drivers are going to come out. The human drivers are going to come out. How do you handle the liability side? You know, when a Waymo gets in an accident, it's very clearly the fault of the Waymo. When something happens on Uber's platform, who's liable there? How do you handle that? Do you have special insurance that navigates that? So, as it relates to on our platform, you know, liability laws are different every everywhere, but we provide essentially commercial insurance for drivers, human drivers who
[11:19] are on our platform. And I think that with the autonomous model, more the way it looks is Waymo's for example responsible for for their own drivers. You know, they are building a software driver and they speak to the safety of those drivers. These cars are very expensive, but we are quite confident that the driver is going to be much safer than a human being. So, ultimately liability is going to come down in the industry and it'll be savings that we can pass on to the consumer essentially.
[11:50] I'm curious Waymo right now, the numbers I've seen come in at like 150k for a car, something on that order magnitude. And then Cybercab is saying they're coming in at 30k. Um I you know, how how important is the asset cost going to be for a a profitable business? And I let me ask you a different question. How many different providers do you expect there to be on the streets of LA a decade from now?
[12:21] Put it that way. So, I think if if you think about 10 years from now, I think every single new car sold is going to have autonomous software associated with it. Sure. >> And just like, you know, we we like GMs on on the Uber network and we like Toyotas on the Uber network, we're essentially going to have every single model, autonomous model on the network as well. So, I think it'll be, you know, 10 plus different providers. Now, the software space may consolidate to some extent, right? So, I don't know if
[12:52] they'll be 10 plus software providers. Uh but there's no reason to think that this won't be a very very big fragmented industry just like the OEM, the car manufacturing business is a very large fragmented industry. >> wait till your original position of Expedia overlaps with Uber because my autonomous vehicle is going to become my hotel room and it's going to transport me from Las Vegas to LA. All right. I'm going to sleep >> be able to get a real hotel room as well. But yes,
[13:22] you know, we we are in some ways in the business of wiring up things that move. Yeah. >> Right? And and we've tiptoed into travel. So, for example, you can take in the UK and Spain, you can take trains on Uber as well. You can take boats on Uber, etc. You know, for us it's just like reimagining the way that the world moves. Anything that moves, we're going to wire it up or anything that you want to move, whether it's food or it's groceries or your local drugstore, etc. We're going
[13:52] to be there to wire it up to make your life just a little bit easier. Are there are there certain services like you do health, you do eats. Are there other services you've got planned? Um we have our hands full right now in terms of moving people in every single way and then moving things in every single way. I'd say the focus right now is, you know, eats started obviously as online food delivery. What we're seeing now is that a friend of mine, a a VC kind of who was involved with Uber early on, he
[14:22] said, "Never under underestimate the power of human laziness." Right? And and you can build huge businesses there. So, what we're seeing is that people want anything and everything delivered to their home and they want it now. Yes. So, the expansion of Uber Eats and we've debated ourselves as Uber Eats travel to non-food items. What we're seeing the expansion into grocery, into every single part of retail, whether it's Best Buy or makeup or Sephora, etc. has been
[14:54] has been growing much much faster than we expected. And so that that I'd say is the focus for us, which is delivery of anything and everything to your home within within an hour. That business is is just exploding for us. 100 years ago we had this massive shift from horse and buggy to cars. It took about 15 years to make the transition where 50% of the vehicles were cars. How long do you expect that transition to take where 50% of the cars are self-driving cars?
[15:25] Autonomous. >> So, I I do think that in the next 10 years uh I think every single new car sold is going to have autonomous driving software on it and it'll have a sensor stack. You know, the cost of lidar is really coming down. Cost of cameras are coming down. So, within 10 years every new car is going to be autonomous ready. Now, there's going to be a huge inventory of existing cars. And the average life of a car in the US is over 10 years. So, it's going to take a very very long time. You know, the
[15:56] life the lifetime of cars, you know, is I guess similar to horses too. Horses can live for a while, but I think I think it'll take a while for that fleet to turn over. And then I do think that the this this product, it is a relatively expensive product, right? Today. Now, the cost curves are going to come down. And you will see autonomous become a very very big part of developed markets, but also keep in mind that we operate in 70 plus countries and a lot of
[16:26] developing markets autonomous is going to take a a while to penetrate. >> a moment where I did the some of the research years ago and looked at that electric autonomous car could be four times cheaper than owning a car. I think ultimately we think the promise of autonomous is exactly that, which is it's just not going to make sense for you to own your own car. As these cars proliferate, the cost of autonomous is going to the cost per trip is going to come down. Safety per trip is absolutely going to come up. You'll
[16:57] have your own privacy. You'll be able to have your stuff essentially loaded up in the car in terms of your music or whatever you like. Uh so, we do think that autonomous is an enormous opportunity in terms of the expansion of the of the TAM for for both mobility and delivery of all kinds. >> Let me give you my vision of what it looks like 5 years from now. So, you're sitting at breakfast with your kids. Um and you stand up from your breakfast table and you start [clears throat] walking
[17:27] >> delivered by Uber Eats, but you know. Let's do that. And you start walking towards the front door. Your AI knows your calendar. Uh it has cameras in your home. It sees you walking toward the front door and automagically, it's my favorite term, uh and an autonomous Uber pulls in front. You didn't have to call it. You didn't have to ask it. And you you hop into it and it knows that you didn't get a good night's sleep last night from your Uber data. So, it it decided to bring you a car with a lie-down bed in
[17:57] the back as well. So, that's Sign me up, Peter. >> Yeah, that's I'm just I'm just going to give you some product advice here. >> [laughter] >> So, the international side you just brought up. Where are we going to see these roll out? Obviously, US and China, but what countries are most pro autonomous vehicles, do you think? So, I'd say the Middle East is actually the most open and leaning forward in terms of innovation of all kinds. I mean, it's not just autonomous, but you look for
[18:27] example at Joby vertical takeoff and landing vehicles. The the whether it's Abu Dhabi or Dubai or or KSA Kingdom Saudi Arabia, these are all countries that recognize the transformational power of technology. Um they are they're kind of run by governments and administrations that are very young and incredibly tech-savvy. And they want to lead. Yeah. And so, we are seeing the Middle Eastern So, for
[18:58] example, we are in Abu Dhabi as we speak with autonomous vehicles with our with our partner WeRide. And you will see many more autonomous vehicles on Uber in the Middle East. And I'd say Europe is also opening up. Europe is leading forward. I think well, there are a number, but we're pretty excited about the potential in in the UK with Wave who is
[19:29] a terrific partner. They have incredible AI talent and they're essentially building a software stack that they will sell to any and all OEMs. So, we're very excited about that model. And I >> remember when France made Uber illegal. And I I was like, "Okay, that's a message to entrepreneurs out there not to start your company or tech entrepreneurs that >> Fortunately, things in France are much better now. Yes, they are. But I do think there's real promise in in the UK and and and uh there'll be some exciting
[20:00] announcements coming from from Wave, who's uh one of our great partners. So, people forget the secondary benefits, right? I remember there's this big issue where the finance minister in France was trying to shut down Uber. And around Paris, you have what are called the banlieues, the suburbs of radicalized uh folks and drugs, etc. Not not the kind of place you you usually start a company. >> LA in the '80s, like that. And it it the French government had spent $40 billion trying to solve that problem with zero
[20:31] uh impact. It was a bit it was worse than I've ever lived in. And then Uber comes in and 18 months later the crime rate has dropped 10x because they're all out driving. Right? And so, they're trying to shut down Uber while you're saving them a $40 billion problem. It's just incredible to watch. >> And you know, same thing for example, drunk drunk driving. Yeah. And uh as when we enter into markets, uh the incidence drunk driving incidents go down significantly. So, there there are many many ways it's one of the reasons, you know, getting back to how
[21:01] we started the conversation, why I wanted to come to Uber is, you know, this is a company that is having real impact on society and how society moves. And I think with autonomous revolution, even more so. Amazing. I remember uh I was one of the first speakers at the first Uber Elevate conference. Yes. >> back when it was a Yeah. Yeah. Uh when when Uber was sort of pioneering the idea of eVTOLs, uh which is a a name that rolls off the tongue onto the floor.
[21:31] >> [laughter] >> You you pull it off pretty well. Uh and when you came in the CEO, uh you ended up selling Uber Elevate to Joby and you put all of that on hold, which honestly, I was like really disappointed about, but it was the absolute right decision. >> have issues with that. Well, it's turned out all right. >> no, it's it's absolutely it was absolutely the right decision cuz it was still, you know, a decade away. And it wasn't the right place to focus. And again, just for all of you here,
[22:01] so many companies fail from lack of focus. Yeah. I've had companies where I served as chairman, the CEO starts a whole bunch of different divisions and it's just like takes the focus off where you need to be earning uh your money. So, uh you're now partnered with Joby. Yes. And uh what's your vision on on flying cars? I'm going to call them that versus eVTOLs. Uh it it it it is a little bit easier. And and you know, we had founded Elevate as a way to we wanted to catalyze the industry
[22:31] to get real investment into eVTOLs because with battery technology and battery density for the first time, the math behind the mass of a battery and how much power the battery had kind of made sense to actually build these these eVTOLs, these these these electric flying cars as well. Um and and once we kind of provided that that that catalyst and we saw funding come into the marketplace, we thought, "Listen, we could then have specialized hardware
[23:01] makers uh fund this." And and Joby was just the best that we had seen of all the lot, obviously. >> Joby is an is an amazing CEO. He's absolutely extraordinary. And and the vision for us is kind of end-to-end uh trip planning. So, a little bit like you said and what we're hoping is in Abu Dhabi this year, uh towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby, and then take a Joby to your destination, and then maybe another Uber
[23:32] at the end of it to wherever you're going, uh and save yourself hours of travel. You know, the the amount of time that you spend, yeah, in in traffic is extraordinary. Cannot happen fast enough. No, absolutely. Absolutely. So, it's happening again in the Middle East, it's happening now. And hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year as well. These the the the technology is absolutely real. Now it's about getting the technology licensed Yeah. uh with the authorities, so to speak. >> And and production up and running and
[24:02] enough of these vehicles and enough experience and enough AI oversight. >> Joby Joby has a partnership with Toyota. So, they they they have the best in the world in terms of manufacturing and safety. Suleman? You know, one of the things I've been critical in the past about Uber but have been extractive with the with the social contract, right? Because you you're layering on existing society, but you have a plan to turn uh drivers into autonomous vehicle owners. And I think that's an amazing transition from shifting the focus on
[24:33] labor to capital. Can you talk about that and how quickly that's being rolled out? Because when you can enable that, you give people so much agency. That's really a powerful direction into the future. >> Yeah, absolutely. So, I I'd say there there are two angles here, which is one way of obviously looking at Uber as Uber is a transportation on-demand transportation company, moving people, moving things as well. Another way of looking at Uber is we are platform for work, flexible work. And so, we have consistently over a period of time
[25:04] um expanded the kind of work available, whether it's driving, delivering, shopping. And now actually we have a group called Uber AI Solutions, where we're uh doing data labeling. We are uh looking at models and picking which model is a right model, etc. So, You've got drivers tagging things with the >> Exactly. Tagging images, uh etc. So, so we're kind of expanding the kind of work available. And then at the same time, exactly as as you said, um as the world,
[25:35] you know, to some extent you've got these capital assets, these cars, that we're going to augment and then at some point replace some of the labor, uh whether drivers. The approach for us is, how do we make sure that there are other kinds of work available that lean into kind of the technology versus kind of running away from from the on from the incoming technology wave. And then also give drivers, etc., um an opportunity to be their own fleet manager. >> I I love that. I love the idea that an
[26:05] Uber driver that gets displaced gets to buy a car or a couple of cars that work for him or her during the day and you can kick back and work out at the gym and it's out there I mean, it's a it's a Well, there's always some work involved in that and you you got to maintain the fleet, etc., right? Yes. Yes. But um Maybe you'll kick back and you'll have some, you know, drivers. >> I've thought about that. >> for you, yeah. I've thought about that. You know, buy 100 cars, have them going around LA. Um you know, and and what I'd want to do is put sort of LEDs on the side and then
[26:37] have my clawbot start experimenting with with different marketing pitches as it's driving down the street, differential pricing. >> I I will make sure I give you a call when we open up in LA. Okay. [laughter] Uh besides flying cars, uh drone delivery. I've got Keller Rinaudo from Zipline here tomorrow. An amazing company, right? Um and I I know you know you know Keller. I've had the CEO of Starship, which is the wheeled uh ground robot. Talk to me about how you're going to start incorporating
[27:07] autonomy in your delivery. I think we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc. And delivery is actually a little bit harder because as it relates to to mobility, the passenger kind of gets to the car and gets uh out of the car, right? Food doesn't do that. So, uh you need to kind of make sure that the positioning of the pickup and drop-off is is different. Uh and And
[27:37] there And you see the robots we had here earlier? I mean, they could jump out they could jump out of your car. >> They the that could be part of the solution, right? It's a first mile, last mile issue as well. And and there are two modes that we're working on right now as it relates to delivery. One is drone delivery, which is for suburbs, um you know, markets that don't have high-rises, etc. We're very excited about that because suburban markets are kind of a new growth opportunity for us. Uh and I do think that drone delivery is going to be one of those surprise and
[28:07] delight moments where you get your food in 10 minutes, right? Usually prep time is 10 minutes, maybe take two uh two more minutes, you get it within 15 minutes, which will be absolutely spectacular. In the urban markets, we've got these cute little sidewalk robots, whether it's Coco or a number of other sidewalk robots >> Santa Monica, where I live. They're all over the place. And and you know, for those, uh they they're they're about right for short deliveries within a mile or two because they don't go very fast and they use the sidewalk. And so,
[28:38] ultimately you're going to have this multimodal kind of uh delivery network that we're uh that we're putting together, whether it's on the sidewalks or in the sky. And eventually you will have specialized delivery robots that uh go on bike lanes or on the road as well. We're going to be going to your questions next in a couple minutes, so get them ready. Um Suleman? You know, there's roughly a million active drivers in the US. Yes. Um more than that, but yeah. And you've got like 10 million globally. Yes. Okay. Uh as you see the rollout of autonomous
[29:09] vehicles, what's the curve in which you expect the drivers to drop? I think that um looking forward to 2030, we're going to have significantly more drivers uh on the platform, including the US, than we have today. Uh just the growth of the business. The business is growing, you know, over 20% and we need to add that many drivers essentially to keep up with the growth. You know, the our audience is growing at 20 almost 20% as well. Um and so, what
[29:40] we see in terms of autonomous is probably around 20% of drivers every year slough off. You know, they they find something else to do. They find full-time work, etc. Uh and as we introduce autonomous into a market, what we do is we just slow down the recruitment of new drivers [clears throat] so that the drivers who are on the platform have just as much work as as they had before. And what an interesting kind of um trends that we're seeing is
[30:10] autonomous looks like it is bringing new customers into the marketplace. One of the hypotheses is that autonomous is not going to replace just human driving, but it's going to expand the market. And what we're seeing in in an Austin or in Atlanta, these markets are growing faster than the average market nationwide, which which suggests that there's going to be actually more business to go around. And especially if the price starts coming down. Yes. Um it's like it become I know my trade right now is buying time.
[30:41] It's like I've two amazing cars, but oh my god, I I want to spend that 30 minutes working on a project, not behind a wheel. That that's what we do is essentially give your time back. That is the value that Uber represents, whether it's going, you know, being able to work in your car or not having to go out to the restaurant, etc. And you Dara, you are in my mind one of the most extraordinary tech CEOs out there. I want to drill down for a second for all of our CEOs in the room here. Your philosophies about running the company. Mhm. Um you're not
[31:13] shy about telling your employees they got to work their butts off. Yes. Um can you talk a little bit about uh about that because we we come off of 2020 and the whole COVID era where people are out of the office and and such and what's your philosophy um to drive Uber's success from a from a CEO inspiring or directing your employees? So, you know, I I came to I didn't come to
[31:43] Uber because I thought it was going to be a layup. Right? I mean, at at the time uh Uber was going through a very very difficult time. Uh and and I think anyone who joined Uber around my time and there are a bunch of our teammates who who joined around when I did. >> Uh 2017. Yeah, you know, it's like they it's there's a certain personality at Uber who likes running to the fire, doesn't run away from the fire. Uh and ultimately, the biggest reason why I
[32:13] joined Uber was kind of one of the lessons I learned in life is uh go to a place where you can make impact and go to a place that a place that is having impact in the world. Uh and if you want to have impact at a company or if you want to have impact in the world, it doesn't come with a free lunch. Like you're going to have to work your ass off. Yeah. Uh and >> And you're not scared to say that to your team. I I I'm It's not that I'm scared. Like I say it to to the team. It's It's I think it's a feature of the place. Like it's an intense work
[32:43] culture. You work with super smart people who are working really really hard. Uh and yes, that comes with a trade-off. It doesn't mean we don't have flexibility around work, but it's fun to work hard and succeed. It's fun to succeed at things that are difficult and are really really hard. I think it gives us other level of satisfaction. That's what Uber offers. And we're going to be very plainspoken about it. You recently introduced an an Dara avatar for employees. Can I see a video of you? >> it, but uh our our employees have a Dara
[33:14] avatar. So they get to practice their pitch in front of that and get feedback. How's that working out? It drives me nuts. Like I you [laughter] know, it it's all these like prep meetings, etc. Like it's such a waste of time. I'm like just come in here, you know, let's talk. We're both human beings. Just because I've got, you know, fancy title doesn't mean that, you know, you've got to prep endlessly, but people tell me the avatar is amusing and and it helps them prep, so good for that. >> You should do a pitch in front of it and see how it goes. >> [laughter] >> I actually prepped for this uh meeting,
[33:45] you know. >> [music]
Resumen de investigación
Resumen — Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO de Uber
TL;DR
- Plataforma, no fabricante: Uber entra en la carrera robo-taxi como capa de demanda — "the demand aggregator, which is Uber" — con "over 20 partners now in the autonomous space" y el objetivo explícito "By 2029, we think that we will facilitate more autonomous and robo taxi rides than anyone else in the world".
- Mezcla, no binario: "There isn't going to be this kind of binary outcome... It's going to develop in a hybrid way"; conductores humanos crecen en lugar de caer — "looking forward to 2030, we're going to have significantly more drivers".
- Asset-light + multi-modal: "the Blackstones of the world were going to own large fleets of cars that you know, give a 9% yield"; eVTOL Joby en Abu Dhabi "towards the end of the year"; drones y robots para "delivery of anything and everything to your home within within an hour".
▶ Contexto: el turnaround de Uber
Cuando Dara Khosrowshahi asumió el cargo, "Uber was losing four and a half billion dollars a year"; hoy, "it's earning over ten billion dollars a year". Atribuye la mejora al foco: "strategy is just as much about what you're doing and what you choose not to do" — consejo literal de su amigo Barney Harford — y a "pointing the company in a singular direction". El mismo trade-off reaparece cuando vendió Uber Elevate: "it was still, you know, a decade away. And it wasn't the right place to focus".
▶ Robo-taxi: cómo Uber afirma que va a "ganar" la carrera
Sobre la pregunta directa "¿cómo vas a ganar?", la respuesta literal es: "we are going to win that race with the autonomous communities" y "we've got over 20 partners now in the autonomous space including Nvidia, for example, WeRide, Pony, Wabi amongst others". Ancla temporal explícita: "we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners. By 2029, we think that we will facilitate more autonomous and robo taxi rides than anyone else in the world". Sobre Tesla, separa dos cosas: "tens of thousands of Teslas on our platform now and some of our drivers use FSD. So, we've got a lot of data. It's a great car. It's a safe car. We'd love to work with them" — pero el vector estratégico de Elon es "a vertical approach, right? They even own their own refinery", y la apertura a un acuerdo Uber-Tesla queda en condicional: "As to whether we will or will not is TBD".
▶ El ecosistema en 4 capas (lenguaje verbatim del invitado)
Dara divide el stack en cuatro capas explícitas. (1) Aggregator: "the demand aggregator, which is Uber". (2) Driver stack: "Waymo, WeRide, Pony.ai, Nvidia's building out its own autonomous driver, Nuro, Avride, and many many more. Wabi, for example... Zoox is another one". (3) OEM/car: el criterio es técnico — "the car needs to have very very sophisticated compute, needs to have redundant steering, braking, etc." — y "Lucid, for example, uh has a great car that already has a bunch of the redundancy and the sensors systems already built into that car as well". (4) Fleet ownership — y aquí el ancla es Marriott: "Marriott doesn't own any hotels... financial players, these kind of real estate investment trusts that own the hotels that Marriott manages, we think that autonomous will also kind of move into this asset light uh model"; con horizonte de retorno: "the Blackstones of the world were going to own large fleets of cars that you know, give a 9% yield". El meta-claim de TAM que Dara nombra dos veces: "another trillion-dollar marketplace".
▶ Híbrido sí, binario no: el timeline del autónomo
El entrevistador cita el precedente ("100 years ago we had this massive shift from horse and buggy to cars. It took about 15 years to make the transition where 50% of the vehicles were cars") y Dara responde con dos ventanas. Corto plazo: "every single new car sold is going to have autonomous software associated with it" en 10 años ("within 10 years every new car is going to be autonomous ready"), con el ancla de coste — "the cost of lidar is really coming down. Cost of cameras are coming down". Largo plazo: "there's going to be a huge inventory of existing cars. And the average life of a car in the US is over 10 years. So, it's going to take a very very long time" para que rote la flota. Geográficamente: "we operate in 70 plus countries and a lot of developing markets autonomous is going to take a while to penetrate". Estructura del mercado a 10 años: "10 plus different providers" con el caveat "the software space may consolidate to some extent". El entrevistador introduce los dos puntos de coste (no son cifras del invitado): "Waymo right now, the numbers I've seen come in at like $150k for a car... And then Cybercab is saying they're coming in at $30k".
▶ Geografías: Middle East primero, UK después, US más tarde
"The Middle East is actually the most open and leaning forward in terms of innovation of all kinds... whether it's Abu Dhabi or Dubai or or KSA Kingdom Saudi Arabia, these are all countries that recognize the transformational power of technology... they are they're kind of run by governments and administrations that are very young and incredibly tech-savvy". Hechos en curso: "we are in Abu Dhabi as we speak with autonomous vehicles with our with our partner WeRide", y proyección "you will see many more autonomous vehicles on Uber in the Middle East". UK: "we're pretty excited about the potential in in the UK with Wave who is a terrific partner. They have incredible AI talent and they're essentially building a software stack that they will sell to any and all OEMs". Francia — referencia histórica del entrevistador — "France made Uber illegal... Fortunately, things in France are much better now".
▶ eVTOL: la herencia de Uber Elevate ahora en Joby
"We had founded Elevate as a way to we wanted to catalyze the industry to get real investment into eVTOLs because with battery technology and battery density for the first time, the math behind the mass of a battery and how much power the battery had kind of made sense... Joby was just the best that we had seen of all the lot". El producto se describe así: "in Abu Dhabi this year, towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby, and then take a Joby to your destination, and then maybe another Uber at the end of it". Manufactura: "Joby has a partnership with Toyota... they have the best in the world in terms of manufacturing and safety". Expansión a US: "hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year". Las palancas pendientes que Dara nombra: "the technology is absolutely real. Now it's about getting the technology licensed... production up and running and enough of these vehicles and enough experience and enough AI oversight".
▶ Delivery multi-modal: drones para suburbios, robots para urbanas
"There are two modes that we're working on right now as it relates to delivery. One is drone delivery, which is for suburbs, uh you know, markets that don't have high-rises... I do think that drone delivery is going to be one of those surprise and delight moments where you get your food in 10 minutes, right? Usually prep time is 10 minutes, maybe take two uh two more minutes, you get it within 15 minutes, which will be absolutely spectacular". Partners drones nombrados: "Sky Trax, Mana, etc." (Zipline y Starship los introduce el entrevistador). Urbano: "we've got these cute little sidewalk robots, whether it's Coco or a number of other sidewalk robots... they're about right for short deliveries within a mile or two because they don't go very fast and they use the sidewalk". El horizonte de producto: "delivery of anything and everything to your home within within an hour. That business is just exploding for us" — y "the expansion of Uber Eats... into grocery, into every single part of retail, whether it's Best Buy or makeup or Sephora... has been growing much much faster than we expected". Una categoría adicional (Dara la nombra como "Uber AI Solutions"): "where we're uh doing data labeling. We are uh looking at models and picking which model is a right model, etc... Tagging images".
▶ Conductores humanos: la curva es gradualista, no un colapso
"The business is growing, you know, over 20% and we need to add that many drivers essentially to keep up with the growth. The our audience is growing at 20 almost 20% as well. And so, what we see in terms of autonomous is probably around 20% of drivers every year slough off... as we introduce autonomous into a market, what we do is we just slow down the recruitment of new drivers". Predicción con horizonte: "looking forward to 2030, we're going to have significantly more drivers uh on the platform, including the US, than we have today". Hipótesis central que Dara presenta explícitamente como hipótesis: "One of the hypotheses is that autonomous is not going to replace just human driving, but it's going to expand the market. And what we're seeing in in an Austin or in Atlanta, these markets are growing faster than the average market nationwide". Dato social: "the incidence drunk driving incidents go down significantly" cuando Uber entra en un mercado. Base de conductores: "roughly a million active drivers in the US" (cifra del entrevistador; Dara confirma "more than that"), y "10 million globally" (cifra del entrevistador que Dara corrobora). El ancla histórico-social lo pone el entrevistador: "the French government had spent $40 billion trying to solve that problem with zero uh impact... Uber comes in and 18 months later the crime rate has dropped 10x".
◆ Buscar el alpha
Tesis central (anchor + lectura): Dara describe la carrera del autónomo como una carrera de agregación, no de fabricación. "The demand aggregator, which is Uber" — esa es la frase que él mismo pone primero. La monetización no es vender FSD, sino capturar "the incredible demand that we bring to both human drivers and robot drivers" cruzándolo con asset-light fleet financing (modelo Marriott/REITs/Blackstone al "9% yield"), eVTOL (Joby), drones y robots de delivery ("delivery of anything and everything to your home within within an hour"), y expansión a retail no-comida vía Uber Eats ("Best Buy... Sephora... grocery"). El TAM que él nombra dos veces: "another trillion-dollar marketplace".
- Capacidades / sensor stack citado: "within 10 years every new car is going to be autonomous ready" + "every single new car sold is going to have autonomous software associated with it" + el ancla de coste "the cost of lidar is really coming down. Cost of cameras are coming down" — implica que la commoditización del sensor stack (lidar+cámaras) abre la ventana 2026→~2035; "By 2029, we think that we will facilitate more autonomous and robo taxi rides than anyone else in the world" es donde Uber se ve monetizando ese mix.
- Players y roadmap (anchor): "we are in Abu Dhabi as we speak with autonomous vehicles with our with our partner WeRide" (en curso); "in Abu Dhabi this year, towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby" (H2 2026); "hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year" (2027 Joby US); "we'll be in 15 cities by the end of the year with our partners" (15 ciudades robo-taxi a fin de año).
- Deltas concretos (anchor): Coste Cybercab $30k vs Waymo $150k (cifras del entrevistador); "the average life of a car in the US is over 10 years" — el límite explícito a la rotación de flota; "10 plus different providers" en 10 años; "we operate in 70 plus countries" como restricción geográfica.
- Señales de adopción (anchor): "the business is growing, you know, over 20%"; "the expansion of Uber Eats... into grocery... Best Buy... Sephora... has been growing much much faster than we expected"; "these markets are growing faster than the average market nationwide" en Austin y Atlanta; "tens of thousands of Teslas on our platform now and some of our drivers use FSD" como dato actual.
- Catalizadores que Dara vigila (anchor): "regulation is coming to place that will make sure that the safety case is one where the autonomous drivers is actually [in]" — la regulación como palanca de adopción; "around 20% of drivers every year slough off... we just slow down the recruitment of new drivers" — la palanca operativa es quién reclutas, no a quién despides; "the day comes when those Teslas are safe with a camera only approach" — vector Tesla como evento binario pendiente.
- Predicciones con horizonte (verbatim): 2026 — 15 ciudades robo-taxi con partners; eVTOL Joby en Abu Dhabi H2. 2027 — Joby en US. 2029 — más robo-taxi rides facilitados por Uber que cualquier otro player mundial. 2030 — "significantly more drivers" en la plataforma que hoy. ~2035 — todo coche nuevo con autonomous software; "10 plus different providers" en calles.
- Llamadas contra-consenso (anchor + lectura): (i) "One of the hypotheses is that autonomous is not going to replace just human driving, but it's going to expand the market" — en contra de la narrativa "AV mata al conductor humano"; (ii) "There isn't going to be this kind of binary outcome... It's going to develop in a hybrid way" — en contra de winner-take-all; (iii) "humans are actually much more complicated than robots" — contraintuitivo en una tesis platform donde se asume "más robots = más simple": la fricción real, dice Dara, es la capa humana, no la autonomía ("there are very significant differences as to how you set up your platform to be able to be operational in Bangalore and also be operational in San Francisco as well").
Activo / señal / lectura
| Activo | Señal (verbatim del transcripto) | Lectura |
|---|---|---|
| Uber (UBER) | "earning over ten billion dollars a year" vs "four and a half billion dollars a year" de pérdida al llegar; "By 2029, we think that we will facilitate more autonomous and robo taxi rides than anyone else in the world"; "the expansion of Uber Eats... has been growing much much faster than we expected" | La tesis del invitado es upside por agregación/multi-modal, no por fabricar driver stack. 2029 como techo explícito y repetido. |
| Tesla (TSLA) | "tens of thousands of Teslas on our platform now and some of our drivers use FSD"; "Cybercab is saying they're coming in at $30k" (cifra del entrevistador, no de Dara); "As to whether we will or will not is TBD" | Vector asimétrico: Uber quiere a Tesla ("we'd love to have those Teslas on our platform as well") pero "Elon's approach typically has been a vertical approach... They even own their own refinery". |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) — Waymo | "Waymo is a leader and a big partner of ours in Austin and Atlanta"; "Waymo right now, the numbers I've seen come in at like $150k for a car" (host); "Waymo's... responsible for their own drivers" | Líder técnico pero caro; Uber lo trata como partner, no como target; Waymo retiene liability de su driver. |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | "Nvidia's building out its own autonomous driver"; partner entre los "over 20 partners now in the autonomous space"; anuncio CES con Lucid y Nuro | Único player que aparece en dos capas simultáneamente: chips + driver stack propio. Partner de Uber vía CES. |
| Lucid (LCID) | "we're working with Lucid, for example, uh has a great car that already has a bunch of the redundancy and the sensors systems already built into that car" | Socio OEM por redundancia y sensores ya integrados — el criterio técnico que Dara nombra explícitamente (steering, braking). |
| WeRide (WRD) | "over 20 partners now in the autonomous space including... WeRide"; "we are in Abu Dhabi as we speak with autonomous vehicles with our with our partner WeRide" | Partner AV en activo en Abu Dhabi (Middle East = primera geografía que Dara nombra para el rollout). |
| Pony.ai (PONY) | "WeRide, Pony.ai" entre los nombres del driver stack listados por Dara; "Pony" en el grupo "over 20 partners" | Player en driver stack con partnership abierto con Uber, sin rollout operativo específico nombrado. |
| Joby (JOBY) | "in Abu Dhabi this year, towards the end of the year, you'll be able to push a button, get an Uber to the vertiport, where you get onto a Joby"; "hopefully it'll come to the US sometime next year"; "Joby has a partnership with Toyota" | Reactivación del vertical eVTOL vía Uber Elevate (vendido a Joby). Toyota = manufactura. H2 2026 Abu Dhabi; 2027 US según Dara. |
| Toyota (TM) | "Joby has a partnership with Toyota... they have the best in the world in terms of manufacturing and safety" | Backbone manufactura del socio eVTOL; barrera de entrada implícita para otros eVTOL que no tengan un OEM partner equivalente. |
| Marriott (MAR) / Blackstone (BX) | "Marriott doesn't own any hotels... financial players... the Blackstones of the world were going to own large fleets of cars that you know, give a 9% yield" | El modelo asset-light que Uber anticipa para AV: propiedad de flota en manos de REITs/funds estilo Marriott, gestionadas por Uber. |
| Amazon (AMZN) — Zoox | "Zoox is another one"; "we certainly would love to work with them. There are some that we're working with and and some that we're in discussions with" | Player en driver stack mencionado por nombre pero sin partnership cerrado; la apertura al deal sigue viva. |
| GM (GM) | "just like, you know, we we like GMs on on the Uber network and we like Toyotas on the Uber network, we're essentially going to have every single model, autonomous model on the network as well" | OEM humano en la red actual; usado como análoga de cómo se agregarán los OEM autónomos. |
Generado con algoritmo v2.1-anchor-first · modelo MiniMax-M3 · 2026-07-05T19:57:24Z