We Have Come So Far

[00:01] hello followers of the four-year journey this is Bob Lucas it is April 24th 2020 I hope you all doing really well I hope you're safe and I hope your family and friends are also doing well well it'd be an understatement to say that a lot has changed since the last video six weeks ago clearly we are in a new normal for now at least for this year times have changed I know a lot of people are suffering
[00:31] economically so I hope you also faring well given the circumstances personally from a health standpoint I went through a pretty decent bout of of kovin 19 the entire family in fact contracted it here in New York so it hasn't been difficult it's been difficult here in New York dealing with the lockdown and the effects of carbon 19 both from a health standpoint but also economically as well
[01:01] today I'm going to cover in this agenda here pretty much the the cover 19 impact on Bitcoin and also the markets in general I'm gonna good segue into a discussion on sort of the difference between a panic a liquidity panic in asset classes in general versus say a recessionary environment and what that might mean for Bitcoin this is a question I think I received the most on here when I reached for feedback for
[01:32] generating this video and I want to talk about this I've talked about this in the past in fact I think it was around October or November of last year I talked in detail about what I think would happen in such an environment so that I'm gonna kind of repeat a lot of those sentiments there I think we're gonna find that so far at least the way Bitcoin has responded is kind of the the response you would expect in this type of environment the question is gonna be going forward in a recessionary
[02:03] environment will Bitcoin respond the way I believe it will i'll also quickly again touch upon like I do in every single video the importance of positions a risk given what we've seen here in the last kind of two months here and the response from Bitcoin but also all asset classes I think it's going to be an important highlight on why I've been stressing position sizing at risk all along then we'll talk about kind of where we are now in the cycle and the
[02:35] forecast go back to kind of April of 2019 a year ago when I did kind of the the most important video I guess and also go back to the original December 2018 video and just take a look at kind of what the thoughts were back then and as to how this may unfold and where we are today and then of course I'll give you yet again another four-year cycle update on where I think the four-year cycle currently stands that would be obviously a segue from the previous
[03:05] point there on relation to cycle forecast so enough to cover here but if you've been following all the videos all the 10 or 12 videos that I've done over the last year and a half a lot of this is still the same recurring theme I don't think a whole lot to be honest with you has changed how Bitcoin progressed over the past 15 months is probably not what I expected and what most people expected but I think where we stand today you will find not a whole lot of change in
[03:35] terms of where we've come and where I think we're going in the future so let's get into it : ein teen was a Black Swan and liquidity event that the Bitcoin community in the Bitcoin asset had just not being prepared for simply because it had never had to experience an environment like that before as far as I'm concerned in those December 19
[04:05] lows were going to be the lows for for Bitcoin during this period before this Black Swan liquidity event occurred the market had consolidated over a I think around a six or seven month period here from the June top where it's sword to the $14,000 level as that moved $14,000 was also not expected and took the market many many months here of consolidation selling for it to to
[04:37] resolve itself that December law and my opinion was going to be the law before we came up into this February time frame around about where the US and well stock markets began to start pricing in a serious shock and liquidity event related to this the beginnings of outbreaks of coda 19 of course that began to accelerate here as infection started to increase and it became very
[05:07] evident that this was not going to go away on its own and that the economic impact was going to be significant then we started to get in here into the early March timeframe and markets really began to sell off sharply and as I covered in previous videos really when it comes to a severe surprise shock in any market and you have fast changes in price like
[05:38] we saw in the stock markets for example in crude oil and other asset classes you begin to have this delivering period that occurs so we had a market in general a world market in general that was levered very high not just in Bitcoin but across all asset classes and then as the losses began to pile in and the margin calls begun that began to come in in the end people in a short term panic and a short term liquidity event do not care in the slightest about
[06:12] any of the fundamentals or any of the long term prospects of any asset class especially we're talking about let's call it smart money family money home offices institutions whatever it may be holders of large amounts of Bitcoin also holders of other asset classes as well and they have Bitcoin as part of a more diversified portfolio so when one portion of your portfolio is collapsing
[06:43] 15 20 25 percent in a very short period of time then there's just no way that they're going to avoid not selling down something like Bitcoin indiscriminately as well 1 you can't have Bitcoin then start to be a larger percentage of a percent of your portfolio as the rest declines but to in that type of situation that type of environment the the goal and the mantra of any of these
[07:15] money managers is to be defensive first to preserve and to raise cash as fast as possible and that means selling and when when you begin to sell then the short sellers begin to come into the market as well and begin to see the opportunity on the downside thus accelerating the sell offs and the declines so this moved here down here was simply a worldwide panic that Bitcoin was just never going to escape when you look at the stock market
[07:46] here in the US we had a 35 percent decline in just a number of weeks couple of weeks maybe 15 20 trading days at most that was the fastest decline in such a short period of time in US market history so if you really appreciate those those comments there you realize the level of a panic that was in the market here and it only it's only natural that we would see Bitcoin with
[08:16] its with leveraged markets begin to sell off the way it did right here therefore given bitcoins relatively high beta and relatively high historical volatility to see the equity markets collapsed by 35% is it's historic in itself so therefore to see Bitcoin dropped from the highest here in February by down to
[08:46] the bottom of Wick 60% double double the decline of say a traditional broad market like the SPF five hundred this is very normal in relation to a decline you saw in the stock market in other market as well you look at crude oil more recently dropping from you know from a fifty dollar price down to twenty and then of course we all know just this past week the forward contracts going into negative territory just goes to show you the level of
[09:17] selling that's around here and Bitcoin of course did not escape any of that so when I look at this decline here I don't look at it from a fundamental standpoint I don't look at this saying the the four-year cycle is broken or Bitcoin is broken because it collapse by 62% Bitcoin has a massive history a documented severe history of doing crazy things like going up by 300% in two or three months or by dropping thirty and forty percent in just a given number of days so this here again to me is purely
[09:51] black swuan liquidity panic related as we saw across all the markets and now it's just a matter of time for the market to recover begin to to rebase and then to begin to then slightly he'll slowly move back into more of a fundamental picture as opposed to you know it's a recent liquidity event that it underwent and here now in the short term I'm not here to predict short-term prices I've said that in every single video but I do think the lows are in I
[10:21] think we had massive volume here bigger larger volume that we saw than we saw in December of 2018 at that bear market decline and capitulation this is true capitulation across the board and maybe this is something that's a Bitcoin market just needed to go through itself since then we've we've we've done this steady climb up steady climb up people like to say it's correlated to stocks I don't think it's that correlated the stocks in general at the moment I think
[10:51] obviously everything went down with the event but right here we are starting to climb this wall of worry and I think now with the having coming up I think there's gonna be a little more volatility begin to come in the Bollinger Bands again and it gets height I don't think we pop up too other side but if we do and if we get above 8300 right here in the short-term as a possibility a strong possibility that the market just goes higher from that point and begins to continue that bull market uptrend in the four-year
[11:22] cycle but I think we still have to get through any a retest of some sorts doesn't mean a retest in price necessarily but a retest I moved down into a 60-day so the cycle that's kind of jus in this timeframe here in this window I think we also have the having narrow it's kind of linearity that's gonna bring in a lot more interest around that date so right now I think it's scheduled around May 12th of course that can vary but over the next three weeks or four weeks I think we can get some real chopping action coming but I
[11:52] would be surprised if we didn't had mostly lower over the next month or so into this having and it's possible that we even get a good decline post harvan as well as a trap in this market before heading higher but I do believe that we stay we stay well clear of the wicks right down the bottomless $3,000 ranges and I think probably the worst case is more in between the five and six thousand dollar range which is still a
[12:22] significant decline from this point but this is where I believe in a short term we may end up now the natural question I get from everybody is well I should wait to buy I should wait in that 5,000 area or I should sell right now and buy in the $5,000 range and if you're asking that question you either have not watched a majority of the videos I've produced over the last year well you've ignored them because the journey over the over the four-year
[12:52] cycle is to get your position to not be not to be too focused on short-term price trying to save 500 Bitcoin or a thousand a Bitcoin or 2,000 a Bitcoin get your position get a reasonable allocation and begin to focus on the psychological elements and aspects of holding in an extreme volatile asset like Bitcoin over a long period of time that's the goal and that's the mindset we need to be in because if you had that mindset coming into this Black Swan liquidity
[13:24] event you would have held through comfortably and many of you didn't unfortunately I know from the messages and the emails and the comments that a lot of people either panic sold or they were liquidated unfortunately because they felt that the worst was behind and the only the only thing that can happen going forward is price can go higher and therefore they begin to leverage their hotle position thinking that even just a 1x or 2x or 3x kind of leverage would
[13:55] would be fine and be safe but even even a 1x right a 50% decline is gonna liquidate your account there's no such thing and there's no point in imagine there is zero point in margin in a market that trades like it's a leveraged instrument to begin with Bitcoin with a volatility and it's and it's asymmetrical opportunity is a call option or behaves like a call option would anyway right so you don't need to lever up something that's already
[14:25] behaving and and and pricing like a call option does I've talked about that many times before there's enough potential gain in Bitcoin being in spot that that far outweighs any other asset class and its possibilities potential so why anybody would want to lever up on something like this when there's a 10x 20x and 30x opportunity potentially up ahead for us and risk liquidation like many people went through and risk their
[14:55] whole stack is really beyond me but that it just shows a lack of I guess investing knowledge and maturity in this market and it also shows that people still still greedy and not content with being patient and sitting out a year or two years and waiting for the potential to unfold so what could happen here is we may end up reaching the goals that we've been talking about for so long and people now either have fewer Bitcoin
[15:27] than they started with or have no Bitcoin at all and starting from ground zero again fortunate but maybe it's not too late right maybe maybe this Black Swan event has given those types of people at least some opportunity to get back in here what I think is still a very reasonable price all right let's flip switch gears here a little bit talk about recession and panic so I think we all know I think we obviously went through a panic situation right here recently and I think that's
[15:59] over now I don't think the stock market is going on to new highs I think the stock market could be in a bear market well it from a price standpoint it's obviously in a bear market but I mean from a time perspective I believe we could be looking at a three to nine-month bear market into 2020 into the end of 2020 for the stock market but I don't necessarily believe that Bitcoin needs to remain correlated or will be correlated to that I think bitcoins value proposition from a store of wealth
[16:31] is is such that it will begin to attract a lot of interest especially post having from the store of value crowd and just like gold is so panic is over in my opinion I think we still could see some selling into the next 60 day cycle low as possibly the equity market begins to go lower again but I think they decouple at that point and then Bitcoin begins to shine and show its true colors and its
[17:02] value in an environment like this so in a recessionary environment hedge like assets tend to do really well just like gold does exceptionally well in bear markets I believe Bitcoin will prove itself I'm possibly out of the next recession in the next equity bear market Bitcoin will earn its badge here in being a risk of a hedge like asset that performs well in a recessionary environment I do believe
[17:32] that and I believe it's going to follow a similar path to to what gold did in 2008 and what it's doing right now as well we also have the perfect backdrop here for Bitcoin to perform now perform with central banks around the world essentially you know doubling their balance sheets committing trillions and trillions of fiat currency here to backstop the world economy you also have governments here printing up massive massive amount of deficits
[18:03] that really can't be funded by the public and by by sovereign wealth funds it can only be funded through the purchase of assets through the central bank's authorities so essentially we're increasing money suppliers were increasing deficits and that is the perfect backdrop for something like gold but also is the perfect backdrop for something like Bitcoin where you consider it's still only a hundred and fifty billion dollar market I mean that is just an insignificant number for
[18:35] Bitcoin it just it just pales in comparison to anything else out there I mean the US government alone is throwing out almost weekly now three hundred and five hundred billion dollar stimulus packages there was a fifty billion dollar package just for hospitals the other day or 75 billion and there was 125 billion dollar package just for testing here so when you compare the size of the Bitcoin market to the amount of liquidity the amount of capital the
[19:05] man of money printing that's going on out there I just think it's a very natural step to look at a lot of those funds beginning to flow significantly into into Bitcoin and if you need an example of this his gold from 2008-2009 and if you look at here the 2008 decline gold was doing really well leading up to the financial crisis of 2008 it was beginning to press in the risk in the
[19:37] market well and truly before it occurred and if you look at what gold did more recently Gold's already been in the four-year bull market it's been it's been four shadowing what is what is ahead and what's occurring right now in the economy my belief just like it did here from 2006-2007 with this massive run-up to the peak but then you began to have to have a panic begin to settle in and the QWERTY event and where you think gold would do extremely
[20:08] well of course any asset does not do well in a panic just like we saw more recently and gold fell 33% and goals nowhere near as a volatile as Bitcoin so you could understand here if Bitcoin was around during that time I think you would have seen something very similar as well so we had this 33% decline into October which was really the peak of the panic not many of you around but I certainly was it was an end of the world in terms of financial markets in 2008
[20:40] and then right here gold worked all the way down the $680 from 1000 plus print but something interesting happened then the stock market went up and then went down into a March 2019 made a new low but gold decoupled and decoupled significantly even though the equity market continued to fall and fall hard by the point that the equity market bottomed right here in February or March
[21:10] gold had gone up to rally by another 48 percent so he had come up and almost recovered all of the losses by the time the bare market had ended in the equity market so it started to price in here okay that the liquidity event had ended the panic had ended and it just went off and that point and did not look back and then of course began to press in following QE and all the qe1 qe2 qe3 and
[21:42] all the other programs central banks around the world including the ECB and the JCB or all these all these central bank institutions were very much active at that point and gold benefited from that and I don't see central banks stopping right here I don't see world government stopping in terms of their accommodation to the markets and therefore just like I see gold now entering or has entered a new bull mark where I see it going higher I think bitcoin is in a similar position
[22:12] right here to where gold was back in 2008-2009 and in addition to that if you look at gold right now more recently so here's the panic so gold also did something similar where it peaked right up here at 1700 and fell 15% but has since recovered so it's gone on to make a new high already while you know coming off this this
[22:42] liquidity event so we had it immediately according to van here had its sell-off and has come on now to make new highs so i think bitcoin is going to be hot off the hills on sort of the similar performance to what gold has done okay let's switch here now to position sizing and risk I covered this in every single video and I covered this for a very important reason because I realize a lot of listeners don't necessarily have the experience in investing in an asset class like this and I've and they get
[23:15] caught up and a lot of the reason why they're involved in Bitcoin and crypto in general let's let's face it they may tell you that they love the technology I'm sure they do to some extent but a lot of people here really in it for the speculation and for the potential riches right they think they're gonna get filthy rich out of crypto and the reality is a lot of people have lost a lot of money or lost whatever money they have whether it's just trading leverage Bitcoin or whether it's trying to you
[23:45] know trying to take advantage of the icos or all the old coins and with that experience without trading and investing experience no asset class is going to be easy to trade especially one with the type of volatility that we're talking about here and it's a shame unfortunately and I know many of you who have been following here did not fall into that trap and if they if you didn't and you feel patient and disciplined and capture position size and relative to your wealth in a very reasonable level
[24:18] then there's no reason to panic there was no reason to sell again unfortunately I got a a lot of comments a lot of emails a lot of tweets for example on the people panicking and selling selling at the bottom capitulating or you know asking me when when in 2019 I started rounding up to 14,000 I'm buying them I'm Bonnie I should I buy now so you know people are still leading with their emotions they're buying too high
[24:49] after surge and then price you know then they're buying too much and the leveraging up and the market is punishing them on the way down and people don't loan a lot of people don't learn from the fact that they're doing it in an opposite way I know there's a lot of market cliches out there about buying blood in the street and so on but you know it's true if you believe in this asset class you have to keep your allocation reasonable because again it trades like a call
[25:19] option if we're looking potentially at six-figure Bitcoin price and Bitcoin right now is at $7,000 range you're still talking about a 15 times return which is unheard of I keep stressing this every time it's unheard of in any asset class to have the potential for a 15 X return you don't need to have more than five to ten percent of your portfolio invested again if you're young and you've got less to lose sure you can put in more than that the point is
[25:49] though the more you have the more sensitive you will be to price volatility if you have two hundred thousand dollars worth of Bitcoin and your wealth is three hundred thousand dollars for example and you have so you have well more than 50% of your wealth tied into this and you think you're gonna be getting you know three or four or five million dollars out of this because you're looking at a 10 X or 20x over the next year or two the problem with that is when the market
[26:20] capitulation like it did recently by 50 or 60 percent it's just way too painful to see almost half of your wealth disappear as the market is crashing that's just human nature what you think you're gonna be able to handle during normal times is not the reality of what what you're gonna be doing and the way you're gonna respond during a panic there's more recent decline for me and for many of you I know was simply an opportunity I ended
[26:51] up adding more Bitcoin another five Bitcoin it's a forty five forty eight hundred level now do I know if that's gonna be the bottom I don't I really don't I think it is but my point is that the market was down at sixty or seventy percent I believe in Bitcoin I believe in the long term narrative and and and how successful I believe Bitcoin will become and therefore I was okay with making a long-term purchase because my overall allocation to Bitcoin allowed me
[27:21] to take on more risk okay and coupled that with my initial purchase back in December 2018 again when there was blood in the street the average price was low now I did make another purchase more recently over the last year or so I purchased at 9600 in September 2019 in hindsight that was probably not the best buy but looking back at that I think it
[27:52] was still okay because it had come off a fourteen thousand dollar price over a five or six month decline in consolidation so my thinking there was that were in a four-year cycle bull market the markets come back forty percent over a long period of time it wasn't necessary blood in the street but it was a price point that I was happy to take knowing that I'm not gonna be thrown in a position I'm not gonna commit chelate if or when it declines
[28:22] and it did decline down to 3,000 that position was down by more than fifty percent but again my position was reasonable in size that I could handle and whether that and that's exactly where I've come and that's exactly what I've done with them not looking to any more here but my point here is on position sizing and being realistic with this four-year journey and your sighs an allocation let's move on now and talk about where we stand in
[28:53] relation to the original forecast and and kind of that would be in a segue into there's an update on the four-year cycle I get a lot of messages about the four-year cycle and whether it's busted or broken and when you concede that it's over or it's done and the reality is no I mean I think we were right on target I mean the problem that we face or not not me necessarily but some of you is the move that we had in 2009 to 14,000 was
[29:24] out of character it had not become had not displayed a similar type of a price action over that's the last 10 years relative to where it was in the cycle and that's through a lot of people off it also threw me off I didn't expect a move up to 14,000 and nobody knew where that was going at some point there looked like it just may go on to make all-time highs and just keep going could have been a big blow off top nobody knew and there's no way of nobody
[29:54] knowing and I think that fooled a lot of people and there also a reason why we've now seen a nine-month consolidation and she's taking a very long time to consolidate the gains that we saw over that short period of time of course I'm talking about this period right here from April to June just the three-month period where it broke above what I believed would have been significant resistance here at that sort of 5500
[30:25] level kind of where it began to capitulate in 2018 when it broke through that it didn't look back until it peaked right here on mass mass fomo this occurred too early and too soon after the bear market and this is why we saw this somewhat gradual at least by Bitcoin standards gradual retracement lower back and to what I believed would have been the end of that decline I thought here and I still believe right now that this here was the beginning of
[30:56] the next phase until we saw this black one liquidity event with Colvard bringing it back down and coming back to test kind of this area right here capitulation massive volume and again this is where we're standing right now but how does this how does this change or how is this compare to where I thought back in April right here as we started surging when this market broke out here in April I made that video which has the highest my highest-rated
[31:27] video in terms of you count was the April 2019 the next four year cycle has officially started and that breakout here was significant and I think was the confirmation we were looking for that the band market was over and in that video I kind of talked about where I thought Bitcoin would go over the next year and two and three and I just want to show you a couple of videos here from that April 2019 that I think somewhat are
[31:57] better than what I can do right here so this is the video from 2019 we come up when we kind of start testing this area a few times now I don't know if we can get above that period about that six thousand point in 2019 though be honest with you were going to be patient here takes time to build a solid foundation and a solid base in any near new four year cycle but at some point we probably do get above this six thousand dollar
[32:27] level and once we get above that we may drop quickly back down but then we get it back above and then that same level begins to act the support okay so here's the chart now notice the price is seventy four seventy five hundred in that video that kind of talked and it ends in April of 2020 that clip price was seventy five hundred so essentially were right around the point where a thought and normal four-year cycle would
[32:57] be at this point in the cycle so if you look at one year forward the cycle is not busted in any way the price is exactly where I thought it might be the difference is it's a path that it took to get to this point it's given everybody a really big lesson because it trapped everybody here early up into this bull market high right here nobody really expected a move so quickly and I didn't of course because in that video I clearly showed a path up to what
[33:30] I think where I thought would have been some significant resistance and then kind of moved back lower and building of this base below this 5,500 6,000 area before finally moving up to this point and then beginning and continuing on in that bull market uptrend so the only difference is really this move here and of course the capitulation of Black Swan event that I've talked about today and
[34:00] this is why I continuously talk in all my videos about the need to not worry about short-term price we have an intermediate term price when your timeframe is something like a four-year cycle if you're a trader then obviously this matters a hundred percent right this is what you're trading at riding your trading daily and weekly bars like this and you're taking advantage of this swing for my trading account I took advantage of this move here was leveraged long on trading accounts all
[34:30] the way up and to some extent on the way down from a short standpoint but that's not investing when you're investing you don't allow these short-term moves to dictate how you behave on a long term timeframe you have to take each time frame and invest or trade on that specific timeframe but too many people were looking at the four year goal but swayed by these moves both on the upside and on the downside and again position
[35:03] size plays a significant role in how you respond to that so here's another clip on a decline back to retest now this is of course Black Swan related according but still I think it's relevant because I did think at some point we would come back and kind of do a retest of this area like we've seen in previous bull markets so even though this was a liquidity event we may have potentially seen some type of similar event occur anyway it's hard to say but here's a clip also from that
[35:34] April video don't know but let's just say for argument's sake we get up here and we test that will just be the first test I think at some point and I'm just gonna draw this in you can again loosely write some point maybe around the August time frame we get down and we I don't think we get anywhere near necessarily the December lows we'd probably get closer to the February lows okay around about thirty three thirty four hundred again arbitrary numbers I'm throwing out
[36:04] it's more about time so I think we get down here and we scare the hell out of other Long's they get worried that it's been kind of seven eight months since the low it's taken too long it's now reversed lower they start to panic the two leveraged and of course they get they bail out thirty-three thirty-four thirty-five hundred and we did come down to thirty eight hundred so I think this is our big big retest here and it's the
[36:37] capitulation event that we didn't necessarily see in this new four year cycle so obviously we had the bear market capitulation which ended that bear market but we didn't see any type of massive shake out or retest throughout this past 1516 months since the four-year cycle began and I believe this is it sentiment right here became and got to an absolute extreme this capitulation event was real I flushed out so much of
[37:08] the retailer flushed out so many of the leverage players and it really resets sentiment all the way back to bear market levels and beyond if you look at that there really hasn't been any real mention of the having I mean the having narrative was huge last year towards unit last year I mean it's three weeks away and nobody I mean I'm not gonna say nobody of course people are but you would have thought by now it would have been having having it's not really the case but also
[37:40] bitcoins not getting mentioned in general and across the financial media space and you see I CEOs are pretty much dead and gone nobody's launching anything even the scammers seem to be gone nobody's replying to you know there's automated BOTS with Twitter and Twitter like looking for phones that's all kind of gone I think it's just reflective of the flush out that we've seen here maybe that was much needed in this market to allow this market to now begin to to
[38:12] re-inflate here and to move higher so I think everything is now set up really well one you have we've had this sort of second bear market within a four year cycle so a cyclical bear market within a secular bull market we've had to flush out minors have been sort of somewhat flushed out as well sentiment on the retail side has been flushed out there you have the perfect position in the four year cycle showed you in a video where you have kind of a one-year period of building a base I believe one years
[38:43] out 13 or 14 months out now we're kind of at that point and you also have a macro backdrop that is perfectly suited for Bitcoin to begin to show it's true it's true value right here and to attract a bid so I think everything is still set up I'm still as bullish and as confident as I was starting this out and I think for those again who have been patient and I've shown discipline they're actually being rewarded right
[39:14] now think about where crude oil is think about where stocks are in general even now down 20% they were down 35% now down 20% Bitcoin is up a hundred and thirty percent but even a conservative portfolio allocation like I've been showing in here is up over 60% during that time period so it's still outperforming overall and it's still doing really well but I guess people don't see it that way based on
[39:44] where sentiment is today and that's because they've been going about this the wrong way again buying heis and selling the Loews just like I showed last time in previous videos where retail gets excited where price is doing well when everybody is supposedly is making money and you're not that's when everybody jumps in feel a few people get out at the top and this was again I think a repeat here so this this entire structure here has really been
[40:15] Max Payne as far as I'm concerned what I mean by Max Payne it's been difficult for bulls and even bears alike to to profit be successful in this now there's a lot of short-term traders that I know have done really really well but that's a different ballgame that's a different animal from an investing standpoint the only thing that's done really well is to be disciplined and patient and taking opportunities of price in this lower sort of area anything kind of below the 6000 range to
[40:45] be buying in those areas or even to be buying like I said after a you know a significant decline of a significant period so kind of I wouldn't call it dollar cost averaging because that that implies buying consistently based on date but buying after a significant decline of a significant period of time has also I think in a long run would do well so let's now finally kind of go into a closing here with a four-year cycle update and take a look at what what we
[41:15] could be looking for going forward okay now short-term again I don't want to focus on short-term but I think we probably get at least some type of shakeout come down here and then I think we begin to see capital flow right back into Bitcoin you know I think there's been a lot of accumulation more recently but I think you'll start to see that accelerate and if you look at the April video from last year again I don't talk about new highs above $20,000 until 2021
[41:48] and I don't see that changing right here I think that's still the right look for this four year cycle again be aware anything can happen right that's the whole point in the short intermediate timeframe anything can happen but I believe we begin to sort of build up a base right here we'd probably don't get above this so a tenth down as a level until possibly the summer so it's here and then we can kind of come up here and begin to maybe look at testing by February March April again
[42:21] don't know exactly where let's just call it argument's sake in March and it's not and probably take a little while before we can get above that $20,000 psychological level that mirrors the peak of seventeen we may even at that point have another shake out a significant shake out maybe a 20 or 30 30 % shake out Bitcoin shows 30 percent shake outs often and frequently in an uptrend so possibly shake out and as I showed in the last
[42:51] video or that video from last year it's really the last six to nine months only in a cycle where the massive gains come in and that's when the retail crowd finally wakes up and says oh my god this thing is gonna go it's made all-time highs and this is where it gets mass media attention when it makes those new all-time highs from that point is where you start to see the acceleration in the cycle now if we just take a quick look here at the four-year cycle the bear
[43:22] market low of December 2018 going four years out puts us at a December 2022 as the next low for the four year cycle if we just then make the assumption that we're gonna have that three years up one year down the next peak or the peak should occur around the 156 week level now peaks in a cycle are really difficult to predict and really what I'm focusing on here is that next big cycle
[43:53] no four years in December of 2020 to give or take two or three months on either side of that it's it's very difficult to predict but even a 20% cushion kind of gives you a sort of a 20-week cushion either side blushes for argument's sake let's say we go up to a top here around the December 2021 frame still not looking then to break all-time highs and make the run to the peak until nine months before the
[44:25] expected peak so if you look at 36 bars which is nine months thirty-six weekly bars from a projected peak here in November of 2021 gets you to April of 2021 so another year before we break out of all-time highs again this is just extremely arbitrary it's a guide nothing else the point is that the cycle is projecting higher and much higher prices and that's the opportunity we try to take advantage of but again just because
[44:55] we need to at least have some type of framework of expectation looking at this April timeframe where we kind of breakout this is where it begins to accelerate you get the mania phase and then of course we're peaks in terms of price is anybody's guess but let's just say we get up to this $200,000 level that's kind of the projection I'm still looking at the projection that I have really not wavered from and this is how I would see it playing again does it
[45:26] consolidate for another six months months below 8,000 10,000 that's also possible again as we saw the path right here over the last year varied from what I thought that could happen again over the next year so you know we may see it a trail on the bottom but still by the April timeframe make the all-time high we may even get a push above the all-time high this year but then come significantly back in another many
[45:56] cyclical bear market over four six month period and then again by April of 2021 be at this or a twenty thousand dollar range I guess you get the point here that we're looking at more of a trajectory over time to a point up in here but I do believe this four-year cycle will still be right translated meaning that the peak over the four-year period is occurring well beyond the midpoint the midpoint of the cycle here would be around about and those
[46:26] December of 2020 that's the midpoint I believe that peak occurs in this sort of third year of the cycle but it could also move into this fourth year of the cycle it's possible again that we have an extremely right translated cycle and that we come and we peak high into this 2022 timeframe and then come lower sharply into a bear market low into 2022 and late okay that's one possibility
[46:57] another possibility here is that we form I'll just do this in another color okay so from this sort of April timeframe you know we kind of take a sharper move higher and then we come and we spend more of a bear market okay but again my focus really is on this point right here in end of 2022 where I believe the next bear market low in this time frame will
[47:27] occur and from a price standpoint I think we obviously retrace a significant amount back like we have in Prior bear markets we may come back kind of that 70 80 85 percent that we've seen in the past and that gets you all the way back probably down to that sort of 30 to $40,000 time frame price for a price range again it's going to depend on how high up we go and how long we form the next bear market and then moving on beyond that there's a possibility a
[47:57] strong possibility if we do get something like this where Bitcoin becomes a true trillion four trillion five trillion market cap asset class a serious player a serious asset at that point that we then go on and see a really prolonged bear market at that point so the next four year cycle from that point which are obviously extend into the 2026 time frame so let's look
[48:27] at date from this point going out another 210 bars to represent 50 sry for weeks about 52 weeks each of course going into the next 20:26 2027 bama lo we may have a situation where we peek very very well you would peek early in that situation so left translated we may come back let's just say not as far down and then
[48:58] go up and make a peek very early in the cycle maybe make a new appreciation likely a new all-time high be the the trap of all traps okay so a 2023 peek right here and then spend most of the next three years into I just deleted what I just did so again go up here a sharp left trend let it peak in the four year cycle and then spend the remainder
[49:30] of the four year cycle into maybe a double bottom with this prior four year cycle though or not and this would then conclude what I believe is a good chance of being a sixteen year cycle for Bitcoin a longer term cycle there are many asset classes that have four and sixteen year cycles Bitcoin with its having scheduled every four years fits that profile we also have some evidence
[50:00] at least for now of a four year cycle and every cycle with intertwine intertwine with a longer cycle and at some point Bitcoin will experience a massive bear market Walker caused a bear market of this nature well I could tell you what it probably would be it would be the response from the traditional government's regulatory environment trying to squash Bitcoin right now Bitcoin 150 billion market cap is
[50:30] nothing it's not on anybody's radar nobody cares about it but if we have central bank's continuously printing government's running huge deficits and Bitcoin run up to this sort of three to four trillion market cap standpoint and gain the type of popularity that it'll get at that point it will become a serious threat why because gold is not a threat because it's been neutralized it's being managed it's a 4,000 year old asset class that
[51:01] nobody believes will I'm not nobody quite a few people actually but people don't believe it's going to become the new reserve currency and but bitcoin being so new being so digital being so decentralized is a threat you can easily contain gold right because because of the way it needs to be stored you can't contain something like Bitcoin with its
[51:31] decentralized nature distributed amongst the users of the currency as well so there's going to be a threat at this point especially because I also believe that technology would have advanced significantly by that point and coupled with its monetary attraction and and its adaptability to something like potential reserve currency the digital nature of it makes it a threat where you'll get I believe a significant response and it
[52:03] won't kill Bitcoin but I think it will put it into a four-year bear market cycle where you get six months or nine months to a peak maybe a hero a peak and then you get the bear market concluding with a 2026 16 year bear market low so in closing a hope this has covered many of the questions that were asked I hope that explains at least in my view where we've
[52:36] come over the last 15 months I hope it reads the vision in Bitcoin from a longer-term perspective and hopefully that's this has been a lesson overall in investing discipline for many of you and also I hope it reinforces the fact that there are no shortcuts to significant gains significant wealth you have to put in the work have to put the patients in and you have
[53:07] to have the discipline psychologically more importantly to be able to get to that point where we can realize that gains if it unfolds the way I believe it does and if it doesn't again that's what risk management's about that's what position sizing is about you end up if bitcoin ends up for whatever reason failing to live up to its promise it's not gonna set you back the five or ten or twenty years of hard work they put in to get to this point in your life and if
[53:40] it does get to the the promise point you will still be well off significantly based on it's asymmetrical nature a Bitcoin and lastly I want to thank each and every one of you for listening I appreciate if you subscribe if you could share the video I did not ask of anything else besides possibly just sharing it and I also wish that yeah this period of covert here and world
[54:11] lock downs is an opportunity to reflect on what really is important in life and for me that's family and friends and and essentially focusing back on you know just these the small things in life the important things and it's been humbling also for me for that reason as well so I do appreciate you very much - thank you and if you want to leave any comments I will try and reply to some of them or many of them but again once once once
[54:41] again thank you very much and all the best to you