What’s Actually Happening To Bitcoin & The Economy Right Now

[00:00] Bitcoin is a scarcity asset. Remember, the theme has been long scarcity, short abundance. That trade has made a lot of money this year for people. I know it because people still want to see me when I go out on the road. If it didn't work, they wouldn't want to see me, and I think we're only in the early stages of it, and Bitcoin will be part of it, just like oil has been part of it. And I warned about oil for a year. It took a little while. We finally got there. The Fed's going to be a decision making. Remember that for all the Bitcoin people. What's going on, guys? Today we got a great conversation with Jordi Visser. In this one, we talk about what's happening with the Iran war. Oil
[00:31] and gas prices are going higher. The labor market's throwing off some shaky signs. And investors are confused. What exactly is going on? Should I be bullish, bearish? Should I protect my capital? Or should I go risk on? Jordi's here to answer that question. On top of that, we obviously talk about artificial intelligence and all of the different breakthroughs. And then we give some specific examples from this week that have come out of how people are using this to make real money, build real companies, and actually figure out that it's not just a bunch of hype, but people are using this to strip out inefficiencies in their personal life and in their businesses. And it's pretty cool to see. Here's my latest
[01:01] conversation with Jordi Visser. I hope you guys enjoy it. All right, Jordi. I think people are just confused. I I'm confused to a degree. Right? There's a bunch of data points that if you look at on an isolated basis, I look at data point A. Wow, the market is recovering this week. That's really bullish. Then I look at energy prices. And hey, that's going up. That should create inflation. That's a negative signal. How do you evaluate a market where there are different signals, positive and negative? And it's really just confusing investors, and that's why you get so much heated debate online as to like, are we going to go up? Are we going to
[01:32] go down? Are we going to be okay or not? So, first of all, um the belief that I always have, that everyone always should, is the market knows more than any person. So, we sit here, we talk about things. I talk about it. But my number one gauge for everything about what the future is going to be is what the market is telling me. Uh I don't believe, like when everyone was saying, "The market's wrong about software. The market's wrong about private equity." I hear that repeatedly. Those people are wrong. They're making a big mistake. Now, I can create a
[02:03] narrative and say that AI disruption will wreck the terminal value of a software company because now you have to price them differently. That's a narrative for me. Now, I believe it, and I believe it more when I don't hear people admitting that who don't use AI because their value doesn't go. So, you know, I told you my father trained me in handicapping. Another thing he trained me of is he said, "You're going to get better odds on the horses if you go to Pompano Race Track in Florida, where it's mainly bettors who are not as sharp as they are at the
[02:36] Meadowlands or at a New York race track, where professional gamblers are going there. If professional gamblers make up 30% of the betting pool of a track, and down in Florida it's mainly tourists and old people just going out to have a good night, the reason gamblers don't go there is cuz there's not enough money to bet. You didn't pack the odds. So, but he took me to both tracks. The reason I bring that up is that's the way the market kind of goes. So, the reason I use sentiment from people is good. What do you think about AI disrupting software? That's That's not right. Even when really smart
[03:06] people who are in the public know, who say this is just like the dot-com bubble, who are tech people, I don't say they don't know anything about AI. I know they don't use it cuz I asked them. There's a usage thing with AI. So, I think the confusion for the market has to be thought about here in the context of the market is discounting the future. It is not discounting the present. It is literally telling you what is going to happen in the future. The problem is right now, when you look at what's happened in the market this year, it's been grinding down without a
[03:37] tremendous amount of volatility. There's deleveraging that's happening. And I I talked about this as the big risk for last year, which I still think is happening. I think we will lose a headline hedge fund this year because of what's happening. I expected there to be a rotation. I highlighted last week that before this 4% rally in the S&P this week, six of the 11 sectors in the S&P were up for the year. So, you think the market is confusing? I don't think it is. The model portfolio that I put together through last week was up 17% year to date. Those are all
[04:08] hardware names. Those are things related to the agentic side. Those are not things related to software and banks and stuff like that. So, I think the market is actually making more sense than people are. We're entering a very, let's say, difficult period cuz your confusion common is right. We don't know what's going to happen to recession risk. We don't know what's going to happen to inflation. We know inflation is going higher. It probably means growth is going to be weakening because we have oil prices around the globe. Forget the futures prices. Where we closed yesterday, spot
[04:39] oil, like the physical oil, was at $140. So, futures are kind of paper trading, and it's people gambling, and it's people on future things. But the current price today is $140. And so, you're going to see a growth impact in Asia. You're going to see a growth impact in parts of Europe. Maybe it won't be as big in the US, but you have to start to reassess. So, when you hear the word stagflation, rather than kind of go through the differences, that is a state of confusion because normally when growth gets higher, you get worried about inflation. But when growth is
[05:09] going down, inflation's going up, guess what? Fed's got a tough battle. All right. There's a couple of things that uh I want to give you the counter narrative to, and you tell me whether you agree or disagree. I'll start with the efficient market hypothesis, right? Which is um the market is smart. I agree the market is smart. But I think that a lot of great investors would argue actually the most common state of the market is they are wrong, mispriced, there's opportunity, etc. Can both of those things be true at the same time? Where
[05:39] the market gets it right, but actually these great investors are just, you know, excellent at exploiting the inefficiencies when they show up. So, when you when you say the market I don't agree that the market is wrong. Investors are wrong. Investors drive the market, but think about how bad the sentiment was the entire rally last year. There was a difference. Yeah, and there but there's a difference between the market and the sentiment. So, when you say market, you're kind of alluding to the fact that it's investors. Investors do drive it, but for a small
[06:09] amount of time, the smart investors, cuz when liberation day happened last year, it's easy for us to say that the market went higher and tariffs weren't a big deal. Initially, what he said were tariffs that were going to be massively more. So, the market reacted to, "Oh my god, he pulled out that that board." >> Science fair project. >> [laughter] >> To be honest, it was awesome. >> [laughter] >> I I mean, but it was gone within 3 days. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, I think the market responded the way it should, which is if
[06:39] you're going to take 6 weeks on this, you don't know. The market is, I would say, going the other way right now with oil prices. It's saying, "Okay, he's going to do the same thing as last year. He pulls out this card. He doesn't actually mean it." A lot of the things that he said in the speech the other night, they don't jive with what's actually happening. But the the market is basically saying that we don't think what This is my impression. Market is saying to me, "Even at $110, $120 oil, we don't think a recession's happening." And that's
[07:09] because there are sectors in the market that are doing extremely well. The video I'll show this weekend, like transportation stocks. Oil prices should be knocking off demand. The rates for stuff ex the fuel costs are still going higher. The buildout of AI is happening. It's sent memory chips. All of this stuff. So, I have to remember, if oil prices stay up here, the market is doing what it should do, and that's why when I say multiple compression is the story for this year, multiple compression means
[07:39] your forecasts of the future, of the ability for companies to make money, I don't agree with it. I think the That's what a multiple's supposed to say, is how long is this growth prospect going to go? I think what it's doing is looking forward and saying, "We have this temporary thing with oil, but we have this bigger pressure, which is AI is accelerating at such a fast pace that that future keeps coming closer and closer to disruption." That is the major story. That's why when we spoke and I said, "This is a absolutely
[08:09] a supersonic tsunami." And I heard you use it with Peter Diamandis on your interview. It's the right way to look at it. And Peter did a great job of explaining the comment. Elon Musk has done a great job. I don't do a great job at that, but let's just say, from a market perspective, the PE of the market out 3 years is being pushed down because of this. So, you said that inflation's going higher. I have been very clear with people for, I don't know, 5 years now. The number one signal I look at is Trueflation. I know
[08:39] that it is somewhat still controversial. People are skeptical. You know, how could this private company create this uh metric, whatever. My understanding and looking at the data is there's about a 98% correlation between the BLS CPI and the Trueflation inflation measurement. Uh but CPI is just 1 month lagged behind. So, uh with that as the backdrop, um it is very notable that inflation went from 0.8 on Trueflation before the war to 1.7, almost 1.8. Right? Huge explosion on like a percentage basis, more than
[09:10] double. We just got the updated numbers because all the April data on April 1st updated, and it dropped from 1.7 to 1.2. So, if you look into the data, what they're showing is that there was four major sectors. I think it was transport, utility, housing, and food that all now are in very slight, but still deflation. Right? It's negative growth in those uh uh sectors. I, from my perspective, see a battle between like structural deflationary pressures and the supersonic tsunami, and, you know, all this stuff, with this
[09:41] short-term oil price that's spiking and and should lead to higher inflation. How do you handicap which one wins? And like, if I'm an investor, at what point do I stop worrying about the structural stuff and I start worrying about this short-term thing? And I think you're kind of getting at this with the market basically being like even if gas prices are higher, we're not going to have a recession. Is that the market trying to handicap like this like whole inflationary thing? Well, on the on the first point about trueflation, um number one, the reason I
[10:12] seldom if ever reference it is cuz it doesn't drive the market, meaning investors aren't paying attention to it. They're not going through it. So, that the first thing. Second thing is >> And to be fair, there's a lot of investors who not only aren't paying attention, but they think it uh they they they thumb their nose at it, right? Like it's almost like when somebody says it they're they're very dismissive of it. So, to your point, their data does not drive the majority of investors' decision-making. >> And the Fed doesn't comment about it. So, monetary policy is not set off of it. And we know the nuances between it.
[10:44] So, as a real-time indicator right now, the cost of oil going higher is only seen through gas at the pump. You're going to try to tell me that transport Like I know transportation costs are going higher. >> I see the rates, but I also see that. So, what trueflation is real-time, that's the benefit of kind of using it. The gas at the pump, the fertilizer, the food prices, that will all start kicking in with a lag. So, it isn't going to tell you, and at times, especially when you have something like this, it's going to lag behind because CPI hasn't gone
[11:14] higher yet. We haven't got the report. And when we get out, I mean, we just had the report for um for February, and it wasn't higher because gas at the pump was still low. >> here's what's interesting, right? And again, this is I don't know exactly why this happens, but I was looking at uh on the transport side, used and new cars. Prices have started to come down. Yep. Obviously, gas prices are going up. And so, when you look at transport, it when I say deflation, I'm not talking about prices dropped 10%, right? I'm talking about they dropped, you know, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3. And so, it is a slight
[11:46] like it rolled over and it's starting to come down uh slightly. So, let's just call it flat. Mhm. That still to me feels like, okay, I mean, gas prices are four bucks, right? Over $4. So, it does feel like this battle between like if new and used cars are coming down, it's offsetting the like higher gas prices. I just don't know how long that can last. You're right. >> Right. So, let's go back to core inflation versus headline. And headline inflation is the one that I'm talking about only for one reason. It is
[12:16] there's a reason why we have core inflation. That was to [clears throat] strip out the commodity side. We have a K-shaped economy. Housing affordability is already a bad level. We are not going to see shelter go up. Wages are dropping. We have deflation happening in probably the bulk of the economy. So, housing If the housing market isn't there, do you know how many things are in the CPI related to housing like furniture, bath like everything that goes in a house, that is a massive amount of dollars that get
[12:46] spent when you buy a home and then to fill it out. All of us use lots. Same thing goes for utility. Gas at the pump is higher, but natural gas is actually down in the country. So, inflation is a weird thing. And this is the reason why when I tell people, I don't believe inflation's going to stay higher. I do believe that oil prices have now reset to higher levels because they're not going back down. We've done way too much damage, and that's why um anyone who thought this was a temporary thing, on my video last week, I said, "This is officially a regime shift." AI is
[13:17] causing this, and the commodity problem's not going around. So, if you're living at home and you're going through this, you're going to see some costs go down because the job market's not great, the housing market's not great, and nobody's going to go buy cars if those things aren't working. And so, there's parts of the economy in deflation, there's parts of them that are there. This is different than 2022, and I think people forget this. This is why I wrote the piece on the dilemma for the Fed. When the Fed fought inflation in 2022, let's assume we do get a spike in inflation up
[13:47] to 7%. We got up to nine and change in 10 with with 2022, but the housing market was on fire in 2022. We created 4 million jobs We're creating no jobs, and the housing market is falling. So, this is a very different time. And if you get an inflation spike, the Fed can't react to it the same way it did last time. And that's why I wrote the piece that Bitcoin is in this weird spot where you're actually probably going to have the Fed at a point where they have to focus on the dual mandate, which is,
[14:17] "Hey, the job market's still weak." We got a labor number today. Hey, great. It was 178,000 jobs. Surprise on the upside. Okay, last month was 91. We revised it to minus 133, which means over the two months we created 45,000 jobs. And guess what? Ex-healthcare was negative. Again, this problem we're in right now is AI is having an impact on many, many industries slowly but surely. And that puts pressure on the Fed. Today's episode is brought to you by Figure. If you believe in Bitcoin
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[16:51] Your number one job is to educate yourself, and Fountain wants to help educate you. So, I'm going to give you a couple of examples of where AI is now showing up cuz I think you and I talk about it a lot as like this high-level thing, but I think the specifics are now um they're they're too hard to ignore, right? So, the first one is uh there's a story that broke um on a company called Medvi, m e d v i. And it's a guy in Los Angeles who spent $20,000 plus his time and energy
[17:22] to create uh essentially a GLP-1, you know, sales uh front end. Now, he has uh two partner businesses that are like the infrastructure. So, really it's kind of like a the skin on top of, you know, the pharmacy and and all this stuff. So, he's really creating landing pages, doing the marketing, acquiring the users, helping to process the payments, but they're the ones who are doing all the healthcare stuff. So, it was just him. Now, he's hired one other person, his brother. So, there's two guys. In the first year, they did $400 million
[17:52] of sales. They're claimed to be on track to do $1.8 billion of sales in their second year. All AI. They used AI to build the websites, to do the marketing, to know what to do next, you know, all this kind of stuff. I saw a stat. I don't know if this is true, but uh the stat I saw is Hims, that's like 2.5 billion in revenue. And these guys are claiming they're going to do 1.8. Maybe they're wrong. But, let's let's just hold constant what they're saying. That to me feels like a lot of deflation. How do you do 1.8 billion in
[18:22] revenue with two dudes? >> [laughter] >> One way that I know they won't hit those numbers is cuz you're talking about it. >> [laughter] >> There's there's now a bunch of people going, "I want some of that 1.8 billion." Um I I I've uh I've realized something more and more over the last couple months, and I was just in Boston. And when I travel, which is not often, I I do spend a lot of time talking to people uh and >> But, this was a big trip. You're talking to the big dogs. Well, I was talking Yeah, investors. I was I was talking to
[18:52] a lot of important investors uh throughout Boston, but in terms of just people I also meet, um your show has brought me some notoriety, and so people will stop and talk to me. Feel free to say >> comments created it. Um what >> [laughter] >> what whatever the the the question is, um they will stop and we'll talk, and I always ask the question, "What are you using AI for?" And the majority of people, unfortunately, are still using it solely as a chatbot. Um it's a replacement for Google search. I'm going to say this again for you guys that have kids that
[19:22] are late in high school and in college, they need to be using it all the day, and you need to be inspiring them and getting them to do it. Uh I promise I will be releasing occasionally some 15-minute, 20-minute things on YouTube on my channel to try and help people with their kids because I've worked a lot with my son. He's doing phenomenally well with it. But, if it wasn't for me paying for him to use Claude and giving him a higher thing even for a month to use some of these agentic tools, we're we are getting a separation, and this is the thing that bothers me.
[19:53] It's open to anyone. Anyone free can be using it and can learn how to use it. So, the story you're mentioning with someone who turns a business in, I'm going through this first hand. Like, my business is growing both on the consulting side and on the payroll trying to help investors make money. And my focus is on FAs and RIAs and helping them now model portfolios, the names that you need, how do we get through the private credit side, what do you need to know about private credit? That's the value I can bring to people is to provide them the information to keep their clients from panicking and find other ways for them to help them not be in this
[20:23] position of going through it. I just don't feel enough people understand what you're saying, which is if you don't use it, you will never be able to improve your golf game, your skiing. Like, it's this thing if you got to put the reps in to actually be able to accomplish that. I don't want to use uh his name cuz I don't know if he'd be comfortable, but there's a gentleman that uses Silvia, the product that we built. And um he's a blue-collar guy who lives in the Midwest. And uh we recently did a call with him because we noticed that there was some
[20:55] user that was using the product in a way that had to be different, right? And so, we reached out and said, "Hey, you know, do do you want to jump on a call?" And he showed us exactly how he's using it. Long story short is he has figured out how to use Silvia to identify potential M&A targets in the biotech space. And in the last I think he said like last 30 days or so, five different companies he's an investor in have been bought by some of the big He has doubled his portfolio value in the last I think since like November or
[21:25] December. Right? And and he's explaining all this stuff to me and everything. And the first thing he keeps saying is almost like, you know, uh uh self-conscious about the fact he's like, "Look, I'm a blue-collar guy. I don't know anything." He never had used another AI product before, yep, right? And so, the way he's using it is just the same way that any of us would use, you know, kind of AI, but he's using it inside of Silvia product. And I we got off the call and I said to uh Shannon Quirk Fanning, I was like, "Do you understand the power of a product to help a guy like this that now has a superhuman intelligence like get going?" And then I heard uh Brex's CEO.
[21:56] So, Brex has got bought by Capital One. So, you know, once you kind of reach the top of the mountain, everyone wants to talk to you. So, he's been going on his little podcast tour. And uh somebody asked him about AI. And long story short is he's using Open AI. But basically sounds like he gave it full access. Email, calendar, Slack, WhatsApp, company dashboards, metrics, documents, everything. There's like a 2-minute clip floating around online of him describing what he's doing with it. And not only is it,
[22:26] you know, uh figuring out what uh emails to answer and WhatsApp and all this, sending him reports, looking through all the company's information, and then saying, "Here's the next things that you should do." I mean, it would be like having an army of I don't know like McKinsey consultants that, you know, are surrounding you trying to help you run the business. I mean, how deflationary is that? This whole thing is incredible. I I mean, the deflationary side and so people um what you just described, I'm in the early process for Viser Labs cuz I've got I have multiple revenue streams
[22:57] >> Dope name. So, my Viser Labs thing, which the website's horrible, all this stuff, I've kind of left it alone because most of my business has come through through 22V and through just direct relationships with people I have, but I'm trying to expand the the ability to to respond to people, to go through this, to have active emails going, but I don't want to hire someone to be involved. So, I have to do it through Open AI. I I'm going to kind of give people this will inspire some people to to use it. Um and I started I talked about this
[23:27] in Boston. So, I've had a unique experience over the last year. Some of the people that watch this show have made money investing in some of the names that I've talked about. And whether it's Micron I was going to say, did Micron go up a lot? Micron came up a lot. Whether it was Salesforce uh being short salesforce.com versus long Chevron all of these things. I talked a lot last year about you have to have energy in your portfolio because it is replacing bonds as this cuz eventually if there's something that happens it'll be on the inflation side cuz we are running out of power.
[23:57] The only reason I bring it up I realized something this week cuz on my payroll I put out a new spotlight name out of one of the thematic baskets. And the next day there was an announcement where someone made an investment in the company. The next day. Now, this has happened to multiple times and what I started to realize was I spend so much time taking public transcripts of let's just take an example of someone who speaks all the time, Jensen Huang.
[24:27] That guy speaks I I mean, five times a a week. If you take all his transcripts, you put them into a folder which I do. And then you have Co-work go in and you basically say, "What should I invest in based on what he has said on everything he has said?" You know what these guys do? They actually tell you what to buy, not in direct words. No, no, no, no, but they know. They know what I need. And so, whether it was Meta with Corning
[24:57] somewhere within Meta's statements is the thing of, "You know what? We're They won't say the name cuz that's illegal, but what they will basically describe is a place. It's like if you ask someone, "Where did you go?" I'm not going to tell you where I went cuz I don't want you to go to the same place, but I'll describe it to you. If they describe too much, AI is going to figure it out. >> Yeah. Or if they take a picture now and you just upload it and it'll identify it. Which is scary. AI is the smartest. So, when you start going into 140 IQ, and I want to give people another thing
[25:27] because right now we're disrupting software. But in these meetings in Boston, what I'm starting to say to people is you have to understand we are in the agentic side. So, here's the most powerful thing. You and I have never talked about this. You know about the Manhattan Project. Oppenheimer came out. Everyone saw Oppenheimer. They know what it is. You take the brightest minds. Let's assume that everyone had Einstein's IQ. You take 50 160 IQ people, you stick them in a room, and you say, "You solve the nuclear bomb." And they do. We are in the agentic side, which means
[25:57] there are millions of Einsteins by the end of this year working together on the world's greatest problems. It's awesome. Well, this disruption that has happened to software guys, it's going to happen to everything because there will be Manhattan projects going on constantly. The only thing we're lacking is the compute to solve cancer, the compute to do this. We will get there because those problems take so much computation to get through that it might be millions of Einsteins, but the point being do not fade this disruption that's
[26:28] happening. Do not sit there and listen to people saying, "This is just like uh buying Amazon. You're get" No, this is not. This is a unique thing. It is. This is a million Einsteins fighting all arbitrages and all inflation because as Jeff Bezos famously said "Your margin is my opportunity." If you tell Open AI that with a million Einsteins, go find any margins and go through it. That's why I made the joke about Medvic. Whatever they're doing now, you've disclosed it. Now everyone's going to be competing. >> Oh, it's not cuz I disclosed it. I think
[26:59] I think it was I can't remember if it was New York Times or Wall Street Journal wrote like a, you know, cover photo of the guy standing there in the image. I was like, "Hey, that business is definitely definitely going to be under pressure." Um you wrote this piece this week called DOGE, but it was debt, oil, growth, and employment. Talk a little bit as to like why these four things you put together. So, I wanted to make sure that Well, there's a two there's a couple things. Um So, let's start with what I said before, which is it's very difficult for the Fed to do what it did
[27:30] in 2022. And let's just peel the this apart so people remember. In 2022, we had a raging employment market. We had YOLO. It was difficult to get people to go back to work. Now, the quits rate continues to go lower. A quits rate within the JOLTS report is what percentage of people are looking to quit their job. Now, that means you have the ability of getting a job. When the quits rate is low, it means people are scared that they're not going to be able to get a job, so they're not quitting. So, back then, quits rate was really high.
[28:00] Like, everyone I mean, it was a "How much will you pay me? How much will you pay me?" Everyone was switching jobs. There was no loyalty. There was nothing. And the housing market was on fire. I couldn't find a home in Maine to buy. I couldn't find one because every time it went on the market, it was gone. Everyone knew this problem. Blackstone was involved. They're buying things. They're renting them out. So, here we are now. Completely different situation. Now, growth is down. The Fed can't do the Paul Volcker we're going to fight inflation. And it's only oil-based, but let's assume it spreads to other things, which is what happens a lot of times, and we
[28:30] actually see core inflation go higher. This is a dilemma for the Fed, but there's two other points. So, I've said this is like the 1970s. And I believe with oil now having a floor that's moved up. We spent last year between 50 and 70 for the bulk of the year. Well, now we're talking 70 to 90 for the rest of the year and probably a little bit longer. Well, that's going to make inflation be above the threshold that they're comfortable with. Will they tighten or will they cut rates? Well, he's got a Fed chair coming in, which I mentioned. Here are the two problems
[29:00] that I mention all the time. This economy is leveraged in two ways. Number one, guys, you've heard about that to GDP being at 120%. You've heard that interest expense on that debt is greater than defense. We were going from zero interest rates in 2022. If you raise them now, you're raising into already having expense up there. They raised them high and then they started to bring them back down quickly, not quickly enough for President Trump, but they did do that. So, that's one
[29:31] difference. Debt to GDP, what Ray Dalio runs around going, "This will end badly." We have that situation. They cannot raise rates. Second problem. They cannot raise rates because equity market cap to GDP is now 220%. If they cut if they fight this down and he knocks the stock market down, that's not going to work either. Stock market's higher than it was in 2022 and the economy is weaker. So, you had a lot of cushion with this money supply. So, if they fight this, they are really
[30:02] taking the leverage of the system and oh, by the way, we have a credit cycle which is in force which is every day there's a new thing. Massive redemptions from Blue Owl in in the most recent time. So, the point of it was to remember the structural condition. In the 1970s, do you guys want to know what the debt to GDP of the country was? Well, that at that time it was 30% between 30 and 35. The equity market was 40%. So, now we are at 120 on the debt side. So, we're three times the 40 and on the equity
[30:33] side we are seven times the size. So, what that means is they may want to do something, they may want to fight inflation, they cannot. So, for Bitcoin it is going to win for all of the reasons. We need cryptography. We need something that doesn't have a moat. I I I'm just telling you when they make that decision to cut rates while inflation is high, I don't want to be the one sitting That is the moment to me that they're going to have to come with something. You've got pressure from the White House isn't
[31:04] an independent Fed. All of the things there and I don't think there's going to be a recession. So, no recession, inflation on the higher side, run it hot. The basement happens through a stock market which kind of burns off that 220% and my ultimate vision is that through multiple compression in 10 years, the equity market relative to GDP gets back to 100% which used to be the cap. Now, for that to happen, if we compound GDP at 7% annually for the next 10 years for those of you playing the rule of 72 book, um
[31:36] that means we will have doubled GDP to 60 trillion which is right where the equity market is. So, if the equity market is unchanged for a decade, we've had the basement of the stock market the money is still going to look for returns and the reason I say this, we can't have it collapse but we can have it go sideways and the transfer goes from wealthy people that own assets and it goes to people who own Bitcoin and the reason Bitcoin will go higher is because pension funds and endowments and all these places they still have liabilities they have to meet and to meet those liabilities they have to invest in whatever is going higher. Today's episode is brought to you by
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[33:07] [music] Arch Public. Go to archpublic.com and tell them I sent you. You know what's a interesting part of this wealth transfer is you were talking earlier about like using these tools and and going and and trying to figure stuff out. I recently used co-work to take control of a browser and I gave it access to Zillow and you probably could go pull like this through API data whatever. I don't know how to do any of that stuff. I just said, co-work, here's access to a browser that Zillow's open and I just
[33:38] started typing in different cities around the country and I said, go and look at homes that are for sale and their pricing history and go look at homes that sold and their pricing history and tell me what's happening in Phoenix, Arizona in terms of our home prices that are actually selling selling below or at or above asking prices. If you got a home right now, you don't want to look at that data cuz it's not good. Right? All these people putting
[34:08] their homes out and I'm talking about in some depending on what city 12, 13% lower than asking price. I mean just and not like one example, multiple examples, whatever. The reason why I started thinking about this is like, you know, you see all stats that the kind of boomer generations got, you know, in some cases 60% of their net worth tied up in their primary home and and all this. Most of them are going to leave. Right? So, like they they don't care they paid it off that they're staying there forever. But there's a good amount of people who are like, I'm either stuck or the amount of net worth I thought I had, I don't
[34:38] have because this home price is, you know, now coming down. And so, I think about how that psychologically changes what they do in their investment portfolio. Right? And you you've talked in the past about like longevity. So, if you're going to live longer, right? Well, also if you're actually not sitting on as much net worth as you thought, these things start to change the way that people interact with the market and then you have all the uncertainty on top of it and I think that's where a lot of the confusion is coming from is they just feel like they're kind of under attack from different elements.
[35:08] And you bring up a good point. I'm I'm going to break it into two parts. The first one is on this point, let's go back to Silicon Valley Bank. So, in the modern day we had a run on a bank that happened overnight. I was part of it. Were you? No. Yeah, I was on my I was on my computer and I I never told you the story. No. I was on Zoom and you know, in crypto we're like bank run experts, right? So, there's a rumor, there's smoke there's fire you're out of there. Um and I was on a Zoom call. I remember it was Thursday morning. Somebody texted me and said, you know,
[35:38] I'm hearing there could be a problem. Whatever they said, I didn't even think twice. I just literally while on the Zoom call opened it up, went over, hit withdraw. I thought I was being overly cautious. By the end of the day it was over. Right? And so, inadvertently I was part of it but just crypto had trained get the hell out of here. So, everyone should remember that story cuz Silicon Valley Bank was fine. Okay. It was fine. Now, they had a lot of treasure They took in too much money
[36:08] and they put that money into treasuries and the treasuries fell 20%. >> Cuz they listened to the Fed. But this is money good, right? You know what this sounds a little bit like? Private credit. Sounds a little bit like private credit. The difference is depositors can take their money out whenever they want and in the digital world they can take it out quickly. The only thing preventing private credit right now from being in this position, all these things going under is they have gates. If they didn't have gates, they'd be under. So, every time I hear someone say there's no problem in private credit, I'm like,
[36:39] there's always a problem, guys. And the reason is this. This is a Ponzi scheme. This is leverage. Like I I I'm not saying these words to be dramatic. The fractional reserve banking system by definition is go back to It's a wonderful life. Set in plain words, but we don't have your money. Your money's not here. It's in their home. It's in his business. Like I That's what it is. You're taking a dollar and you lend it out 10 times. Okay, well, if everyone tries to come
[37:09] for their money at the same time, it's a problem. So, private credit may not have any disruption on the bonds. And people might say you're overreacting but part of the thing that overreacts which gets back to your point is the fact that these stories come out in the digital world you can find everything you want. So, the housing market, one of the great things about it is the opaque nature of it. One house trades up, everyone's house goes up. One house doesn't trade but it's marked down, nobody's house goes down. It's not It's not marked down until I sell it. So, that is the reality of more price discovery and having this.
[37:40] Now, for the parents listening, what Anthony just told you, what you can do with a computer right now. So, that's not a chatbot example. You're using co-work but also computer usage. So, those are two things that didn't exist two months ago from from Claude. For your kids, what do they like? I guarantee some of you have sons and daughters who like fantasy whatever. Football, baseball. What he just did, all you need is a customer account at anything with a login and now you can use AI to go build
[38:12] your team, to go follow all the stats, to go through You don't have to go hunt and sort by this. You can let the AI do it. So, again, these are the ways that you inspire your kids to use it. That will turn into them getting a job because they know how to use the simple things that Claude has for free. Perfect example to kind of break off two points. It brings price discovery, it speeds up fear. At the same point, it leads to kids being able to use it for tools and I wish I had it when I was taking those standardized tests and stuff. Right? There's going to be such a market for identify who's using the you know,
[38:42] Claude co-work, whatever. But there's some kid somewhere in a high school right now who hasn't done a work in about six months. Well, he's got the just knocking it out Let me if if my kids right now were going into college and they were taking the SAT. So, we pay all these tutors to give them SAT. So, a lot of you people are going to respond to this cuz guess what? I know what time of the year it is and I know what's starting to go for everyone stressing about college. Well, if they want to get better in SAT score, what's the best way to do it? Take the test, take a a test online, have some place to log into and then the places
[39:13] that you get wrong, have those exported and then have them teach you just on those areas extensively as opposed to you going in and have a human being go one by one by one. Do it online and then have AI say, hey, this is something I'm clearly not good at. Help me do. I guarantee you that is a better way to raise your SAT score. I just made it up on the fly. 100% 100%. Last thing I want to ask you about is Anthropic is crushing it. They got the momentum. Everyone's really excited. I think their competitors are panicking and then oops, wait.
[39:45] Mythos and the source code leak. What's your take? Merkle also, I think there was a data hack there. What's your take as to like the speed versus the security of some of these things and and should people be concerned? Well, it's funny. So for the subscribers, I did write a a piece on Mythos cuz it was that important to me. Um the end result is when you read the news on Mythos, we are much closer to dangerous things than people realize in terms of AI. So this is a model. So this is like
[40:17] not Opus, this is Mythos. But it's the next version of Claude. So you've had Sonnet, you've had Opus, this is Mythos. The problem is they've given it to the government and they've given it to the cyber guys and said, "We don't want to release this. It's it's scary." And I we feel it could be a major like anyone could hack anything. So please take a look so you're prepared for this. Now Anthropic has to make money. So They definitely released it. At some point. >> Uh ChatGPT leapfrogged everyone to
[40:49] release the original ChatGPT. We were LLMs were out there. Everyone knew about it, but they released it and then you saw that they took over. So the leapfrogging that happens is cuz these guys are they're borrowing tons of money and they're spending tons of money. They need revenues in the door and it's been very challenging to get the revenues despite what you hear about the massive growth of Anthropic. That's all well and good, but Anthropic has under invested in building out CapEx and Dario's been outspoken about it. Well, I'm starting to run into some token usage and if you go online, you're starting to hear this more and more. So Mythos is a little
[41:19] scary in the fact that we might already be at recursive self-improvement. I've talked about it here, but this is when the computer's learning on its own, which means all types of things start to enter closer to AGI and most of the readout has been that Anthropic has something real cuz remember, there have been very few releases that come out. If you can't beat what they have already, then you're not going to release something cuz that's bad for your stock price. So you're waiting. So I think there's been the speculation as to what's happened. On the source code part,
[41:50] I've read the VentureBeat article and this was kind of scary. Like I made a joke in Boston, I made a joke on the video I just did today. I'm like, this is kind of like if Kentucky Fried Chicken released their their secret recipe on like a year into there. There'd be no Kentucky Fried Chicken cuz there'd be 8 billion of them that had the same recipe. They have every every model provider has nuances of efficiencies, nuances of the way the model works and a lot of these were released in the source code, which means if they really did have something,
[42:20] well, now Grok has it and ChatGPT has it Google Gemini and everyone else does, but here's the other thing. So do the Chinese. And the Chinese have been copying all the models. You know that they took whatever was on there and it's already been done. So I just think we're in this point where people have to realize that these hackings that happened at Merkle, which is a big deal, which I won't spend a lot of time on, but we've talked about Merkle on here. These are really big deals and I think the hackings are going to go up. It's the reason why I've said
[42:50] we had another quantum Bitcoin scare. Guys, we're living in a world where your assets are exposed to the hackings of Mythos and all these places already. Open Claude Mythos, this stuff is accelerating so fast. We just have to get used to the point that these models are so good that the disruption you saw in software, which led to the destruction that was in the financial markets. That is capital structure destruction. 100%. >> That is 100. Listen to Michael Saylor a few times this weekend, guys. He just
[43:20] had an interview with Natalie Brunell. Go listen to it. It's 2 hours, I think. Um the reason it's important is because Michael is talking about the capital structure of the world changing. He is the only one that I listen to regularly on this topic cuz he's the one that got me inspired to look into Bitcoin and understand it. It's more about the disruption that happens to the capital structure, which he went through with MicroStrategy from Microsoft and he openly talks about how he couldn't compete with these companies. Bitcoin is a scarcity asset. Remember, the theme has been long scarcity, short
[43:52] abundance. That trade has made a lot of money this year for people. I know it because people still want to see me when I go out on the road. If it didn't work, they wouldn't want to see me and I think we're only in the early stages of it and Bitcoin will be part of it just like oil has been part of it and I warned about oil for a year. It took a little while. We finally got there. The Fed's going to be a decision-making. Remember that for all the Bitcoin people. I think that you going to be very right by the end of this year. All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's it. I need you to do me a favor though. I need you to go into your browser. Don't use AI, just your little fingers, you know, put
[44:22] put your little fingers on the keyboard and type the following. Jordi Visser YouTube. Jordi Visser YouTube. When you go, you're going to get a link. That link is going to take you to Jordi Visser's YouTube. When you go there, there's a big button that says subscribe. You're going to hit the subscribe button and when you do it, close your eyes and say, "I'm doing this because Jordi has helped me make money or maybe think more critically." And it's a big thank you. In the digital world, you can't send gifts, you can't send money, but you can send a thank you and you do it by hitting the subscribe button. So go to Jordi Visser YouTube, hit subscribe button. Give him a little surprise, you know, then all of a sudden
[44:52] he'll be like, "Wow, I should keep going on that show cuz I keep getting subscribers. That's great idea." Um thank you for doing this. This relationship gets better every week. >> Yeah, >> [laughter] >> yeah. It's it's By the way, nobody's going to listen to me, so don't don't get too excited. All right, we'll talk to you guys next week.