Anthony Pompliano
Why The Bears Are WRONG About Bitcoin and AI Stocks
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TL;DR
Resumen de investigación
▶ Debilidad de octubre y temor del mercado
La introducción afirma que, en las 19 ocasiones anteriores, el S&P 500 estuvo más alto un año después de las elecciones de mitad de mandato; el avance medio fue cerca de 15%, casi el doble del rendimiento habitual a un año, aunque no todos los casos subieron mucho. El presentador introduce a Ryan Dietrich, estratega jefe de mercado de Carson Group, y adelanta su optimismo sobre el cuarto trimestre, la tecnología y la IA. Dietrich dice que la debilidad durante las primeras tres semanas de octubre es habitual y que históricamente el 28 de octubre ha sido el día más fuerte del año. Atribuye parte del pesimismo a posiciones cortas de fondos de cobertura en su nivel más alto en cinco años y a una de sus peores jornadas desde el día posterior a la rebaja de la deuda estadounidense de 2011. Considera que la expectativa generalizada de nuevas caídas, sin un catalizador concreto, puede ser una señal contraria; el entrevistador plantea como escenario base debilidad hasta las elecciones y fortaleza posterior cuando haya más certidumbre.
▶ Rotación, amplitud y consolidación
Dietrich coincide en que la fortaleza puede llegar después de las elecciones y señala que octubre y noviembre son históricamente los dos meses más fuertes de un año de mitad de mandato. Reconoce preocupación por los swaps de incumplimiento crediticio de algunas grandes tecnológicas y empresas de nube, pero dice que los diferenciales de crédito de alto rendimiento no se están ampliando de forma alarmante. Observa que, incluso en jornadas malas para tecnología, cientos de acciones avanzan; menciona una subida semanal de 6% del software y el buen desempeño de salud y consumo básico, como ejemplos de rotación. Advierte que una caída fuerte de tecnología perjudicaría su tesis alcista, aunque cree que el sector está tomando una pausa y aún puede volver a liderar. Brasil, según su ejemplo, cayó 20% por la elección tras haber subido rápidamente cerca de 20%, sin que eso pareciera inquietar demasiado a los mercados estadounidenses. Sostiene que el S&P lleva unos cinco meses consolidando después de un repunte de 15% en abril y mayo. En su opinión, esa pausa es frustrante para alcistas y bajistas, pero puede ser saludable: el mercado alcista está en su quinto año, y afirma que ningún mercado alcista que llegó a su cuarto aniversario en los últimos 50 años terminó antes del quinto; la duración media que cita es ocho años.
▶ Amplitud y valoración de la tecnología
El entrevistador contrapone la caída de casi 20% del S&P 500 durante el estallido puntocom con un avance de 5,6% del S&P de ponderación igualitaria en el mismo periodo, y pregunta si ahora la debilidad tecnológica oculta fortaleza en el resto del mercado. Dietrich dice que la rotación también fue real en 2001 y 2002, aunque aquellos años siguieron siendo un mercado bajista. Cree que la tecnología actual está en una pausa, no necesariamente al final de su ciclo: los grandes proveedores de nube siguen gastando, y cita valoraciones que considera atractivas en Nvidia y Amazon. Añade que salud, consumo básico y otros sectores han recibido capital mientras tecnología retrocede, pero espera que tecnología pueda liderar hacia el año siguiente. Al abordar la valoración, plantea que las contracciones de múltiplos son habituales cuando suben los rendimientos; afirma que los múltiplos del S&P han caído alrededor de 15%, mientras el índice subía aproximadamente 12% o 13% en el momento de la conversación, porque el crecimiento de beneficios superó 30% ese año. Considera que, si los beneficios siguen fuertes y vuelve la confianza, podría producirse expansión de múltiplos el año siguiente, lo que sería positivo para los inversores.
▶ Riesgos de inversión y exposición tecnológica
Dietrich identifica como principal argumento bajista el gasto enorme en centros de datos e infraestructura tecnológica y la ampliación de los swaps de incumplimiento crediticio de empresas como Nvidia, Amazon y compañías de nube. Comenta que Meta reportó flujo de caja negativo y que sus acciones cayeron entre 7% y 8% el jueves anterior, pese a presentar perspectivas positivas. No concluye que los bajistas tengan razón: aconseja no concentrarse por completo en tecnología, mantener diversificación y seguir sobreponderado en acciones; menciona que Europa avanzó cuando Corea del Sur cayó. Sigue creyendo que la ola tecnológica no ha terminado. Sobre la cartera de su equipo, que gestiona unos 9.100 millones de dólares para asesores y clientes, dice que mantienen una ligera sobreponderación tecnológica mediante XLK, además de exposiciones tácticas a semiconductores, software y estrategias de momentum. Señala que el momentum, pese a la caída reciente, seguía en el percentil 95 de rendimientos excedentes relativos al S&P durante los últimos tres años. Aclara que no están todos invertidos en empresas de nube emergentes ni buscan una exposición tan específica.
▶ Pausas publicitarias
El presentador lee dos anuncios. El primero promociona Arch Public y afirma que su plataforma automatiza estrategias en acciones, materias primas y ETF, permite tomar beneficios y rotar capital entre mercados, y ofrece una herramienta de cosecha de pérdidas fiscales para criptoactivos; invita a visitar su sitio y hablar con el equipo. El segundo promociona Galaxy1 Cash, que anuncia un APY de 3,5% para todos y hasta 8% para quienes ganan más de 200.000 dólares al año y califican como inversores acreditados, con garantía de Galaxy Digital según el anuncio. También describe una función para reinvertir automáticamente el rendimiento en acciones, criptomonedas o ETF.
▶ Efectivo, elecciones y señales de amplitud
Dietrich dice que los flujos de tres meses hacia fondos del mercado monetario y ETF similares a efectivo son los mayores que ha observado. Atribuye la acumulación a la mala evolución reciente de los bonos, las caídas de acciones de alto crecimiento y el atractivo de rendimientos de efectivo de 3%, 4% o 5%. Según su lectura histórica, grandes aumentos de esos flujos suelen coincidir con suelos del mercado; también observa mucho volumen en ETF inversos y bajistas, lo que alimenta su sesgo contrario. Reitera que, en las 19 ocasiones anteriores, el S&P 500 estuvo más alto un año después del día de las elecciones de mitad de mandato, con una subida media aproximada de 15%, casi el doble del rendimiento anual habitual, aunque advierte que no todos los casos tuvieron grandes ganancias. Sobre el Congreso, estima que los demócratas probablemente recuperarán la Cámara y que el Senado es más incierto; dice que los republicanos tendrían un mapa más fácil para defenderlo. Afirma que el S&P subió durante los últimos 13 años con Congreso dividido y que la falta de control unificado puede ser positiva. Luego trata el indicador de impulso comprador: cuando al menos 55% de las acciones del S&P marca un máximo de 20 días, el índice estuvo más alto un año después en todos los casos que cita, unas 21 o 22 veces. Dice que la última señal ocurrió en mayo de 2025, tras las caídas alrededor del Día de la Liberación. Aún no se ha activado ahora; no obstante, afirma que más de 70% de las acciones supera su media de 20 días y bastante más de 50% supera la de 200 días. Cree que una recuperación de tecnología podría ampliar la participación y generar esa señal favorable.
▶ Fed, beneficios y mercado global
Dietrich dice que las tres reuniones previas del presidente de la Fed que menciona coincidieron con caídas del mercado ese día, aunque este se recuperó después; cree que importa tanto lo que no se comunica como lo que se dice. Considera que la Fed es relativamente moderada: interpreta los gráficos de puntos como indicativos de solo dos subidas el próximo año incluso entre los más restrictivos. Su escenario es una subida más, quizá en diciembre, y luego una pausa; cree que los mercados están descontando demasiada dureza, pero reconoce que la reunión próxima quizá no aporte claridad. Prefiere que la Fed hable poco y dice que los beneficios, los márgenes y la rentabilidad importan más que comentarios dispersos de sus miembros. El entrevistador menciona que, con cerca de 15% de empresas reportando, 88% había superado las previsiones de beneficio por acción; Dietrich añade que los bancos describieron al consumidor como sólido, con préstamos y gasto todavía activos. Afirma que los beneficios previstos a 12 meses de empresas pequeñas, medianas y de capitalización intermedia también suben. Extiende su lectura favorable a Europa y los mercados emergentes, aunque reconoce que parte de la fortaleza emergente está vinculada al crecimiento de Corea del Sur y los chips de memoria para IA. En su opinión, es un mercado alcista global sostenido por beneficios de muchas empresas, no solo por siete grandes acciones estadounidenses; advierte que la temporada de resultados aún no ha terminado.
▶ Gasto del consumidor y acciones recreativas
El entrevistador señala que acciones de productos recreativos, piscinas, vehículos recreativos y barcos avanzan, y que Pool Corp. subió 20% en octubre. Dietrich dice que el grupo de productos recreativos había sido el mejor entre unos 110 sectores dos semanas antes, con cerca de 15% de subida y luego otro 8% la semana anterior. Aclara que ese movimiento no significa que la empresa Pool haya dicho que todos comprarán piscinas o vehículos recreativos; interpreta que los inversores consideran que la situación quizá no sea tan mala y rotan desde acciones de alto crecimiento hacia sectores que podrían beneficiarse de menores tasas, como vivienda y actividades para el hogar. Sostiene que el consumidor no está muerto: cita ventas minoristas recientes y una tasa anualizada de crecimiento de 10% u 11% durante los últimos tres meses para restaurantes y bares. Interpreta el repunte de áreas de consumo previamente castigadas como señal adelantada de que la economía podría seguir fuerte el año siguiente.
▶ Activos reales, bitcoin, oro y rendimientos
Preguntado por bitcoin, oro y tierra ante la posibilidad de que continúe la emisión de dinero, Dietrich dice que su equipo posee los tres. En sus modelos tácticos sin restricciones, describe una asignación aproximada de 68% a acciones y 32% a otros activos; dentro de estos, cerca de 1,5% está en bitcoin y alrededor de 3% en oro, además de activos duros y reales. Dice que estas posiciones complementan principalmente a la renta fija, aunque también mantienen bonos, y las presenta como una forma de diversificar los diversificadores. Su argumento es que el crecimiento del PIB nominal de los últimos trimestres fue de 6% a 8%, los rendimientos podrían permanecer altos y los bonos quizá rindan menos; sostiene que oro, bitcoin y otros activos reales han ayudado a las carteras y recomienda mantenerlos si ya se poseen. Sobre las acciones preferentes perpetuas ligadas a crédito digital, dice que las han estudiado, pero que no las han ofrecido a clientes y necesitan más investigación, incluida una revisión de cumplimiento. Atribuye los rendimientos elevados a una posible economía más fuerte, expectativas de inflación y a la abundante emisión de deuda corporativa, que compite con los bonos del Tesoro. Piensa que esa tendencia puede continuar y menciona como posibilidad un rendimiento del bono a diez años cercano a 6% dentro de un año; compara con el promedio de 6% de los últimos cinco años de la década de 1990, cuando el crecimiento nominal era algo menor, y reconoce que hay otros factores.
▶ Rendimientos, crecimiento y cierre alcista
Dietrich dice que la búsqueda de rendimiento ha sido un viento favorable para las acciones durante varios años, aunque admite que podría haber un punto de quiebre. Si los rendimientos suben con rapidez —pone como ejemplo un salto del nivel actual a 5,50% en poco tiempo— podrían alterar el mercado; si suben gradualmente, cree que apoyan a una economía en expansión. Interpreta que el alza refleja más el crecimiento global sólido que una inflación que vaya a dispararse, aunque acepta que ambas explicaciones pueden influir. Cita el indicador económico adelantado de Carson: cuatro años antes señalaba que no habría recesión cuando otros la pronosticaban y recientemente volvió a subir. En su opinión, eso apunta a una economía más fuerte el año siguiente, rendimientos posiblemente mayores y acciones que se mantendrían bien. Al cierre, afirma que después de un avance de 10% del S&P en el segundo trimestre, el cuarto trimestre nunca había sido más bajo en nueve de nueve ocasiones; añade que, en los últimos 13 años, el cuarto trimestre fue positivo 12 veces y que el índice estaba prácticamente plano en el trimestre actual. Por ello espera un repunte de fin de año. La conversación termina con el agradecimiento y la recomendación de buscar a Ryan Dietrich, su cuenta en X y el pódcast semanal *Facts Versus Feelings*, que, según él, lleva unos cuatro años y 210 episodios.
Transcripción completa
[0:30] Dietrich. He's the chief market strategist at Carson Group. And this guy, he's got high energy, and he's got unique insights that are going to help you make money in your portfolio. In this conversation, we talk about why October sometimes weak, what is the best day in the stock market, why he has a bunch of data from the historical performance of the stock market that suggests Q4 is going to be very good, even though every headline and every person you talk to tells you that you should be worried right now. He's a big believer in the AI trade and the tech trade and he thinks that there's a ton of stuff happening in the market right now no one's talking about. But if he's
[1:02] right, that is going to lead to higher prices over the rest of this year and over the next 12 months. So this conversation hopefully will allow you to get a little bit of confidence that all the bears are wrong, that Ryan Dietrich knows what he's talking about. I'm excited for you to listen. Here's my latest conversation with Ryan Dietrich. All right, Ryan, everyone's freaking out going into the end of October, but you think actually this weakness is not only predictable, but it's something people just got to kind of weather the storm. Can you explain how you're thinking about right now? >> That's right. You know, first of all, thanks for having me back. Um, there's so much to talk about here, but the
[1:32] reality October phobia is real. You know, it's a spooky season. Then you look at history and it's normal to have weakness, you know, the first 3 weeks or so of October. I mean, and this stuff isn't perfect, but historically, the strongest day of the year is October 28th. All right. Now, that's also my birthday, so I'm not so sure if that's a coincidence or not, but you get this major low late October and then you rally and I think it's um it's almost we were talking before we started recording, it's almost too simple. Like, everyone's freaking out. I mean, there's so much bearishness. I mean, hedge funds
[2:02] last Thursday had one of the worst days since the day after the US debt downgrade way back in 2011 for the old old-timers who remember that. Um, hedge funds have their most shorts in 5 years. I mean, there's a lot of negativity and maybe rightfully so. I get it. But we're going to get into some other things that aren't so I don't think you should be so negative about. But the reality here, Anthony, I think this late October low, midterm years, all the freakouts that are there, uh, it's probably going to cause max pain. Market last thing. Market likes to cause max pain. And
[2:32] right now, it sure feels like a lot of people are expecting lower bad things to happen. And I like to take the contrarian to that uh, signal. Well, I see a lot of people calling for much lower lows, but more importantly is they all seem to just think that we're going to grind down. Like there's no specific catalyst for the drop. It's just kind of like, hey, things have sucked in their opinion. They continue to suck now. And so why would things go up, so it must go down. Like gravity will take over to some degree. >> My base case is that we have weakness
[3:02] going into around the election, uh, the midterm. And then once we get the midterm election, certainty regardless of who wins. like it almost doesn't matter who wins. Once we get that certainty, we have strength going in through the end of the year. Is that kind of your view as well? >> It is. And you historically the strongest two months in a midterm year are October and November. Uh we we say here Carson, you know, it's not about red, not about blue, it's about green. I mean, that's the stuff you need to think about. Now, listen, we can get way in the weeds in this. Those credit default swaps on some of those um hyperscalers and the NEO clouds. Yeah, there's some
[3:32] concern there. But then you look at like high yield credit spreads and things, they're not blowing out by any means. I say there's a monster under the bed. The credit markets would sense it. We're not seeing that. And then you look at like I maybe I'm getting ahead of the card here, but look at breath. I mean, what's happening? Yeah, tech has a bad day and then you have like 300 or 400 stocks up. I we saw that last week even though like Thursday was a down day, but a lot of stocks participating. So, it's this um interesting dichotomy where we're seeing passing the baton around, right? Lifeb blood market is rotation. I mean, if
[4:03] tech blows up, listen, my bullish thesis probably isn't going to play out. Last week, software is up 6%. Software all of a sudden starting to come back. I don't think that's a bad thing. Yeah, you don't want semiconductors to keep, you know, going down and momentum to keep crashing or South Korea crashing. One more thing on this actually, we had a major stock market literally earlier this week crash. Brazil, Brazil was down 20% because of the election. Now, they were up like 20% quickly a couple weeks ago. But Anthony, I'm really encouraged by the fact that major stock market just crashed and literally no one even noticed or no one even seemed to care.
[4:33] Trust me, somebody cared. I don't mean to minimize it. But the fact that US markets are still consolidating after a 15% rally in April and May on the S&P. We've literally gone nowhere for like 5 months. And I know it's frustrating the bulls and the bears, let's be honest, because we haven't gone anywhere. But we're consolidating. And I think again that the the upward trend, this bull market, which is in its fifth year, um, you know, we just had it fourth birthday. no bull market that made it to his fourth birthday last 50 years died before the fifth birthday average of eight years. I've talked with you for a couple years about these cycles that last longer. You think I think this
[5:04] sideways action for five months is frustrating everybody is a good thing and we're going to continue to go higher here before this year is over. >> Let's talk about this idea of breadth in uh in the market. So uh Phil Rosen who is a friend of your and I uh he recently put out this chart and blew my mind right because it's such a narrative violation. And what he said was the average stock rose during the dotcom bust and he shows that the S&P 500 during the dotcom bust was down almost 20%. But if you take the equal weight S&P 500, it actually was up 5.6% during the same time period. Is that kind of
[5:35] what we're seeing now is everyone is paying attention to tech and kind of sentiment is tied to the AI trade, but actually the rest of the market is still continuing to be strong and and doing well. >> Yeah, we think so. And shout you've joined Phil a couple times on his podcast. I love listening to that. So, you guys need to do that more often. That's really great stuff. Um, and that's very true because in the late 90s, that's when I started getting the bug and all this stuff. I thought tech was all you could own. And then, yeah, it crashed and everybody lost a lot of money on leverage and all the trouble that we see. But then you look back and you realize, you know, there were sectors that did really well in 2001,
[6:07] 2002. Now, yes, it was still a bare market. It wasn't like rip roaring, but but the rotation was real. I mean, I work with a guy named Sonar Giz on our team. He did some really interesting work on this stuff. Um and again it's like yeah tech was down but a lot of other groups did well now I I think still where we are right now we're not so sure though the tech is the tech trade's done right I mean I think tech is taking its break here the hyperscaler are still spending there's still positive things that are taking place out there and you know I I I'm not a huge valuations guy but I mean you know Dan Ives know he's on with you a couple
[6:37] times I mean Nvidia is cheap as it's been in a long time Amazon as cheap as it's been since it's been a publicly traded company I mean there are some really nice valuations on some companies that make a lot of money and and and are still um still growing very very quickly on the tech side of things that you know last thing we say tech or bust you know I mean I don't think this tech trade's over but I still encouraged by the fact that healthc care is ripping staples are ripping different areas have taken that baton when tech took a little bit of a step back but I still think tech is probably going to lead us into next year >> now when you look at uh Nvidia being the
[7:08] cheapest it's ever been as a public company what does that tell you is that like the market is pricing in that they're going to get disrupted is that the market saying it was too overvalued before and now this is a healthier valuation is that people saying we don't believe your future projections like what do you take away from something like that? >> Yeah, I think it's a combination of those and that's kind of the easy answer. I mean I will say this much like when we look at major peaks right you tend to get expansion in multiples and this isn't just this cycle these are all these different cycles Anthony and and you look at it I mean yes valuations on
[7:39] the S&P 500 are down like 15% yet the S&P's ballpark up 12 or 13% the time we're doing this. How in the world is that possible? If you would have told me multiples would be down like this this year, I don't think I would have thought the market would be up this much. It's because earnings growth has grown over 30% this year. Um is why. And again, you know, then you can think of it like, well, what if more confidence comes back? It's this whole thing. I was kind of talking a couple questions ago about um not a lot of confidence out there and with multiple contraction. Well, listen, with yields doing what they're doing, history tells us higher yields, multiple
[8:09] contraction is how this tends to work. At the same time, you know, earnings are justifying this and I think with some more good news, multiple expansion. Just imagine, last thing on this, just imagine if earnings stay strong, the bull market keeps going, but we start to get multiple expansion, which I think is probably the play next year. Those are all still positives for investors in our opinion. >> Now, what do you think the bears have right? What is the biggest critique that you're like, you know what, I I actually agree with that uh with that issue. >> Yeah, I mean, I I talked about it a second ago. the credit default swaps on
[8:41] a lot of these hyperscalers, Nvidia, Amazon, obviously some of the NeoClouds, I mean those are really really blowing out. SpaceX, I mean every day you turn around, one of these companies are saying we're going to spend another 10 billion here, 50 billion there. Meta is going to sell 90 billion here to go by build more data centers. I'm not saying the bears are right, but when I see all of that, you know, it's like there's a lot saying we that's not obvious here. There's a lot of spending going on, like more than we've ever seen, more than the railroads in the 1860s, more than the infrastructure highways in the 1950s,
[9:13] the space race, even more than the internet bubble boom of the 1990s. So, there's a lot of money being put at this. So, we saw with Meta last week, they said, "Hey, things are great." And you look, it's like, ah, negative cash flow and the stock's down seven or eight% last Thursday. So, those are the things that have our attention. But then it comes back to what we just said. Just don't go all in on tech. I mean, there's other areas. Stay diversified. I mean, what's happened when South Korea just crashed not that long ago, a week or two ago. What happened? Well, every single day, Europe was higher, you know? I mean, it's like just keep a diversified portfolio, stay overweight, equities one thing we've been preaching for a long
[9:43] time now, and I still think you're going to benefit from it, but I I I don't know. I I just don't think this tech wave is over. What's the our buddy Dan I say? You know, it's like maybe it's 1 in the morning. I This party still has some time left to it, I think, and tech's probably going to come back. >> When you think about this technology, there's many different ways to play. You can go to the app layer, you can go to, you know, powered land, the whole thing. How do you see your clients actually getting exposure? >> Yes, good one there. So, we are we manage about $9.1 billion on on the Carson Investment Research team for financial advisors all over the country
[10:13] and their clients. We uh you know, we have a slight overweight to technology. I mean, with XLK, you know, we're not getting too cute too specific with it. We do have some more tactical models. We've had some semiconductor exposure. We've had some um um uh software exposure. You know, we have momentum. I mean, high momentum is another way potentially to play some of this. The high momentum's come back in a big way. As we know, you know, we've looked the last three years, look at high momentum relative to the excess returns over the S&P 500 the last three years, even after this huge momentum, this crash that we've seen, Anthony, the last, you know,
[10:43] month or so, still in the 95th percentile. So, that tells you how well momentum's done. So, really momentum, a little bit overweight tech, owning some software, owning some semiconductors, those are areas, those are ways we've done it. Now, are we all in on like Neo clouds and things like that? No. No, we're not getting to quite that specific of a level. Um, but that's how we're that's how we're doing it. >> Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public. Arch Public has just expanded its Agentic trading platform beyond crypto. So, pay attention. This is a big one. Now, they are automating strategies across stocks, commodities, and ETFs. And I think that this is going
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[12:45] isn't working as hard as you are, then it's time to make a move. Check out the link in the description and start earning today. Now, the other side of this is if everyone is worried about whether it's the AI trade, the tech, uh, you know, kind of correlations, uh, even a broader market selloff, they got to take their capital and go somewhere and there's been a lot of cash that is being hoarded in many different types of vehicles. Uh, I've seen you talking on X about this. Can you explain one what's happening, but also two why maybe you think that this is actually a bullish
[13:15] sign? >> Exactly. So, like we'll keep it simple. Look at like money market flows and like cashlike ETF flows on a three-month rolling basis. All everybody needs to know. This is like the most we've ever seen. Okay. And why is it? Well, because yeah, a lot of people were in some of the highf flyers that came back and also a lot of people been in bonds. Bonds have not had a good run. We all understand interest rates have gone up so bonds have struggled. So, people are kind of just like, you know what, give me cash. Let me make three, four, 5% in cash. I'm done with messing around with bonds. I don't want to mess around with the stock market, but you look at history when you have these major surges in money market and cashlike ETFs take a
[13:46] wild guess. That usually is when the market tends to bottom and again then the other things like inverse ETFs, right? And we're seeing huge volume on some of these inverse like kind of bearish ETFs if you will. Huge volume on those as well. So the inner contrarian in me keeps kind of buzzing. And then like we talked about midterms coming up just real simple for everybody out there listening. You just start the day of the midterm and go one year out. The S&P 500 and Phil's probably shared this too. S&P 500 has never been lower the last 19 times. 19 times a year later, we're
[14:16] higher after midterms. So, not all of those were up a ton. I want to be clear, but still you're up like 15% on average, which is nearly twice the at any time one-year return. So, again, not about red, not about blue, it's about green. Now, one more on midterms if I can quickly here. Um, let's say the Dem Don't shoot the messenger everybody, please. I mean, we all see these stats and things, but you know, the Democrats probably are going to take back the House. The Senate's a little more of a coin flip. So, we think there's more of a chance Republicans might defend the Senate because they do have a much easier map. The Democrats have a much
[14:46] harder map. So, that's called a split Congress. The last 13 years, Anthony, we had a split Congress. The S&P 500 was up. Now, now listen, there's other factors to this, but gridlock can be a good thing. Um, and we think, you know, that's something to think about when this election comes up here sooner than later. >> Now, I recently saw you talking about this idea of a buying thrust. Yeah. And the entire idea is that more than 50% of the S&P 500 hit a new 20-day high. This
[15:16] matters as 55% is a buying thrust and has never been lower a year later. Of course, this time is different with defensive areas leading. >> Yeah. Right. Exactly. And that's that's the big question because we have a lot of stocks that are going up. It doesn't feel like it to investors that are overweight technology and communication services and neo clouds and AI and all that stuff but there is a lot of participation. Now my take is this again when we look at this this is called the graph indicator right Jeff degraph of Renmack kind of found this when 55% of all the stocks in the S&P 500 hit a 20-day high so call like a one-mon high
[15:47] S&P's higher like 21 or 22 times uh every single time a year later with some really strong returns. Last time we saw this signal was May of 2025, right? When all that destruction happened around Liberation Day and everything, we started to come back. So, I don't know. I mean, my take is this. Breath is a good thing. I think you're going to start to see better breath from technology. And if that happens, start to those can hit 20-day highs. Then you're going to have that signal and that's still a um a uh a big-time positive development. We're not there yet. Um you know, over 70% of the stocks are above their 20-day moving average.
[16:17] Like over, you know, well over 50% are above their 200 day moving average. I mean, breath was this story. everyone saw how bad it was and October 1st happened all of a sudden breath got a lot better and we understand what's happened though because tech has obviously lagged as everyone knows but still I think breath's better under the surface and with tech coming likely coming back that could signal some of these buying thrusts which will just keep this bull market going >> this week we're going to get the Fed decision does it matter does it actually impact stocks in the way that maybe it did you know 10 years ago >> well let's put it this way last he's only been war has been there three times
[16:47] right three this is his fourth meeting the market sold off pretty hard that day of every single time. So, I don't think it's necessarily what he said. I think it's what he probably didn't say cuz he didn't want to say anything. Then the market did come back. So, big picture on us with the Fed, you know, yes, they've hiked once. You look at what they're saying though. I mean, it seems like they're pretty doubbish. Even the most hawkish people, you look at those Fed dot plots. The most hawkish people out there are saying there's only going to be two hikes next year, Anthony. I mean, I think this is a Fed that does not really want to hike. You look at what the two-year saying, you look what Fed Fed fund futures are saying. Yeah, maybe
[17:17] a little bit more hawkishness is priced in. We're taking the other side of that and think they're gonna be a little bit more dove net dovish coming out. Maybe they do one more hike in um in December and then we think they're probably gonna take a break. And you look at it, you know, um 97 is the one time they did a one and done. One hike and then done. Marco's up over 30% a year later back then. We do think they probably do one more hike this year, but I think again what's being priced in is major major hawkishness and we're not so sure that's the play here. So we we we'll see. He doesn't like to say anything. I mean so we'll just we'll find out. We might not learn much tomorrow when the Fed meeting
[17:48] happens. Um, but the reality is I think one more hike and that's probably it. >> Do you think it's positive or negative that he doesn't like to say anything? >> I think it's positive. I I it's fine with me. I'm I'm I don't know. I started this industry a long time ago. Nobody talked about the Fed. So like it's like all these different opinions and I kind of like the idea like let's say you less let's let the market do its thing. Let's let free markets work a little bit. I mean now you can go down a real rabbit hole that you need a Fed if you're a big free markets guy. I'm not going that route. But the reality is uh he doesn't want to say anything. Now the problem is everybody else loves the camera. all these other Fed members, like one of
[18:18] them says one thing, one says another. So, kind of you just lose your mind with a lot of this. But, um, yeah, I I'm not so sure. Let's put it this way. If earnings keep doing what they're doing, profit margins hitting new highs, earnings keep going higher, and you get maybe a little bit more of a net dovish Fed. I mean, those are the things that matter a lot more than, you know, Wor says this at one cocktail hour and Wor says this at one breakfast hour. I I think we um those things uh he's back to the Allen Greenspan playbook, which again is just not say saying a lot, but not really saying anything at the same time. >> I don't know what the latest data is,
[18:48] but the last time I looked about 15% or so of companies had reported and 88% of them had beat on an EPS basis. And that just feels like fundamentally uh of course the stock market should go higher. Companies are making more money. They're becoming more valuable. >> If you just boil it down to like are companies improving, are they becoming more efficient? Are they becoming more profitable? And if that leads to higher prices, then almost everything else seems like noise in the short term. >> Yeah, you're right. And what did the banks say? They kicked it off. They said the consumer is still pretty solid. They
[19:18] said loans are still happening. People are still going out there spending. We have a lot of big names and retail names still have to report. But overall, it's been really positive once again. And it's not just like we're talking about the S&P 500. I mean, look at like forward 12 month earnings on small caps, on midcaps, on smid. I mean, those have been going like straight up. Okay? It's not just large caps that are starting to make a lot more money in this type of environment. And look around the globe. I mean, Europe's I know Europe's kind of a mess. You turn on TV, what in the world's going on over there? But their economy still looks pretty solid. I know it sounds wild when you look at TV, but
[19:48] their earnings are still pretty solid. Emerging markets obviously are still solid. Now, yeah, a lot of that's because of South Korea and the incredible growth we're seeing out out of the chip trade, but the reality or the AI memory trade. The reality is this is a global bull market being led by global earnings, not just US large cap. It's not just seven stocks anymore. There are a lot of companies uh that are making money and this earning season's not done. So yeah, I'm aware, you know, things could change a little bit, but it's been a nice start so far. >> You mentioned that the uh consumer is still spending and there is a data point that blew my mind. I actually had to go
[20:18] look to make sure that this was true. Uh recreational products, pools, RVs, boats, etc. are up, but ticker pool o is up 20% in October. >> Yeah. >> What is going on there? That's a good one because I I mentioned this two weeks ago when I was looked at like you know 110 different sectors and two weeks ago when everything was crazy I bet that's how bad it was. The recreation products group was the best one up like 15%. Then it followed up with like another 8% gain last week and you look yeah there's only so many stocks that are in there and
[20:49] it's not like pool said everybody's going to buy a pool I want to be very clear or RV there's RVs pools you know the recreation stuff the fun stuff. Um, but I think they they said, you know, it's not as bad as people think. And people are realizing maybe money's rotating from some of the highf flyers to some of the areas that might do a little bit better with lower interest rates, specifically housing stocks, which did really well, and now some of these recreation things that maybe you you do you do potentially in your house. But I think the bottom line to us, the consumer is not dead. Everybody keeps saying the consumer is dead. Just la the two weeks ago, maybe give or take, we got retail sales, Anthony, the last
[21:20] three months, um, restaurants are running at an annualized like 10 or 11% restaurants and bars. I mean, that's I I don't know. Call me oldfashioned. I don't think that's a bad thing. If people are going out to restaurants and spending, that's still a positive thing. But the market is smart and all. If we can complain or we can love what's happening, it doesn't really matter. The message of the market again is some of these beaten down areas on the consumer side have just come soaring back like you just mentioned with pool. Um, and the reality is I think that's a leading indicator this economy is going to continue to be strong into uh into next year.
[21:50] >> Now, one thing regardless of who is in office is true, is that they're going to keep printing money. They're pretty clear about that. Um, and so I immediately jump to, okay, well, Bitcoin, gold, land, those feel like three assets that, you know, benefit from that. What is your guys current view or outlook on those three? >> Yeah, we we own all three of them. I mean, if you look at our unconstrained tactical models, so we can do anything we want. We're about 68% equity. So that's 32% other stuff. In the old days, that would have been 32% bonds. Well, no, not that's not the way this works anymore. And I've I've talked with you for a while about this. I think we added
[22:21] gold uh to our tactical models for the first time. Again, a real money we run back in uh let's see late March of 2023 during the regional bank crisis. We have about a one and a half% allocation to Bitcoin. Maybe about a 3% allocation to um to gold. We have some hard assets, some real assets, some other stuff. I wouldn't say like um in place of stocks, it's more in place of fixed income. So, we we totally own bonds. You manage a lot of money, you have to own bonds. But I think to have that other stuff, diversify your diversifiers is a theme we've said for a long time. Um, and I
[22:51] think this up Yeah, I know yields have come back lately. Uh, we still think this economy is strong. Nominal GDP growth, Anthony, last couple months or last couple quarters between 6 to 8%. We've been saying for a while yield should stay higher. At the start of this year, everybody said, how many times is the Fed going to cut? We said, you know, it's going to be really hard from the cut. Didn't say they couldn't, but we've always said yields will be stubbornly high. That means bonds probably don't do as well. So you want to have something if you drop it, hit your foot and it hurts in your portfolio like gold. I mean not bitcoin hurt your foot when you drop it but nonetheless some bitcoin some gold some hard real assets uh you
[23:21] know different things like that are going to help that portfolio and this year and I mean the barclays a is still I think down for the year even after what we've seen in in yields uh drop the last couple weeks. So those have really really helped from a portfolio point of view um you know if you own those things I think you should continue to have those in your portfolio. One of the areas of finance that I am fascinated by is the uh intersection of uh yield and uh crypto etc. And so one one thing that um has become very popular these uh
[23:51] perpetual prefers that are being offered by you know strategy strive etc. Have you guys looked at those? Is there a conversation with clients about hey these like higher yielding things that are backed by this like digital credit idea? >> No we haven't. We've looked into them. We know about them. I'm not so sure of compliance. I live in a world of compliance. You got to understand, we probably need to get a little more research on that. But um you know, there's there's it just shows there's lots of different ways to do this. I mean, again, people want higher yields. I mean, that's what it is. And you see what's going on with all these why why are yields higher by Well, maybe it's a
[24:22] stronger economy. Maybe it's because there's inflation expectations. Yeah, I think so. Or it's all this incredible every time you turn around. Look, just yesterday there were three major major multi-tens 20 billion dollar deals. All these companies issuing a lot of debt. It's like I can go make more money if I buy the debt of XYZ company versus a a treasury. So that's kind of pushing all these yields higher. And that's a theme again that we don't think is going to slow down. I mean, I wouldn't be shocked this time. We come back in a year. This bull market's turning five. We're still higher. Things are still hanging in there. And the 10ear yields probably around 6%. The last five years of the
[24:52] 1990s when things were pretty good last I checked. We average 6% on the 10-year yield with a nominal growth of GDP which actually a little bit less than what we're seeing now. Now, there's other factors to all of this, but I think this upward bias to yields and and people wanting to get higher yields is is a theme that's going to continue. >> And do you think that the chasing of yield uh or the desire for yield, it hurts equities or it actually is a tailwind for the equities as well? >> I mean, let's put it this way, for last several years, it's been the tailwind. Now, I guess maybe there's some point where the where the dam breaks, but but
[25:23] for now to us with nominal GDP growth what it's doing, earnings growth doing what it's doing, yields continue to trickle higher. You know, the best answer to that as I started talking, we don't like, well, not we, but the market doesn't like huge volatility. I mean, if the 10-year yield went from here to 550 in a hurry, yeah, that's a lot of volatility. That upsets the apple cart. But if it continues to just kind of trickle higher like we think it probably will, and honestly, like what it's kind of been doing, yeah, it's up a lot this year, but it's trickling higher along the way. Um, you know, I think that continues to be more of a net tailwind, not necessarily to to equities, but just to the economy that's growing. I mean,
[25:53] again, why are yields higher? Is it because inflation's going to be soaring or is because g global growth continues to look pretty solid? Maybe it's a combination of those. We side more door number two, global growth. We've got something called the Carson uh leading economic indicator. Sony new put this together on our team. I'll keep it real simple. Four years ago when everyone told us there's going to be a recession. Our LEI leading economic indicator was saying no recession. It's turned higher recently. Anthony saying again the economy likely into next year is going to turn higher and that probably means yields keep going higher as well. in the stock market in our opinion price still
[26:23] hangs in there and does well. Also, >> hey, from uh from your lips to God's ears, I uh I tend to agree with you. I tend to think that uh all the bears, they're uh they're drunk on their uh >> you know, uh bare thoughts. They they definitely are uh rallying each other up, spinning each other up. Um but the market is uh it's pretty strong. It seems like it doesn't really care what's being said. So, we're going to see what happens. >> I'll leave on this. So when you have a 10% jump in the second quarter in the S&P like we did we did uh the fourth quarter has never been lower higher like
[26:53] nine out of nine out of nine times. I mean the fourth quarter you go back the last you know 13 years is higher 12 times the time we're doing this. I think we're virtually flat on the S&P in the fourth quarter. So I still think we're going to have a fourth quarter surge for all the reasons we just laid out. Anthony >> fourth quarter. Fourth quarter. You know you see you ever seen the high school football game throwing up the fours. >> That's right. We're [laughter] there. >> All right. I appreciate everybody. Where can we send people to find you on the internet or find out more about the research? >> Well, I appreciate that. So, I guess exit, Ryan Dietrich is an easy one. Then I've got a weekly podcast. I already
[27:23] mentioned his name a few times that Sonu and I do called Facts Versus Feelings. So, check uh check out Facts Versus Feelings and follow me on X and that's probably the easiest way to do it. >> How does somebody not watch a podcast called Facts Versus Feelings? That's like the the definition of investing is uh the fact we've done um we've done 210 of them once a week. So, we've been doing it for about four years now and it's been a lot of fun. It's growing and it's it's been uh it's been an honor to get to do that every single week. So, there's always something to talk about. That's what makes it fun. There's always something to talk about. >> I love it. All right. Thank you very much for doing this, Ryan. We'll talk again soon. >> Appreciate it. Thank you.